Forex News Timeline

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note USD/THB has risen over 4% month‑to‑date as markets scaled back expectations for near‑term Fed easing and Oil prices surged, hurting Thailand’s terms of trade.

Gold price consolidates on Tuesday during the North American session around the $5,000 level, down 0.11% amid broad US Dollar weakness and falling US Treasury yields.

TD Securities highlights that China’s economy started 2026 on a positive note, led by a rebound in fixed-asset investment driven by quasi-fiscal policy.

United States Monthly Budget Statement dipped from previous $-95B to $-308B in January

The US Dollar (USD) lost its firmness and is now on a two-day losing spree. The Greenback initially fell because investors were cautious over the Middle East war and Wednesday's Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decision.

EUR/USD edges higher on Tuesday, extending gains for a second consecutive day as a softer US Dollar (USD) lends support to the Euro (EUR), with market focus gradually shifting from the ongoing US-Iran war to upcoming monetary policy announcements from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Centr

UOB economists Enrico Tanuwidjaja and Sathit Talaengsatya assess how higher global Oil and gas prices are shifting Thailand from a low-inflation backdrop into a cost-shock environment.

Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister and Norman Liebke argue that, after strong gains versus the Dollar, the Brazilian Real faces more downside risks than the Mexican Peso.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) eased around 0.2% on Tuesday, slipping back toward the 99.50–99.60 area after a failed attempt to recapture the psychologically significant 100.00 handle.

United States 20-Year Bond Auction climbed from previous 4.664% to 4.817%

US stocks posted a second consecutive session of gains on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) adding around 0.3% to hold in the 47,000 region. The S&P 500 rose approximately 0.3%, and the Nasdaq Composite gained a similar amount.

BNP Paribas underlines Türkiye’s acute sensitivity to higher energy prices and exchange rate moves. The report notes a large energy deficit, strong exchange rate pass‑through and a sharp rise in local yields, as markets price faster monetary tightening.

NZD/USD trades around 0.5860 on Tuesday, posting a slight daily decline after rebounding from intraday lows. The move remains limited but reflects cautious market sentiment as the US Dollar (USD) holds steady and multiple risk factors dominate the macro backdrop.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil trims part of earlier gains and edges lower on Tuesday as traders struggle to extend the rally at elevated levels while continuing to assess geopolitical developments surrounding the US-Iran war and ongoing supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.

Silver prices retreated nearly 2% on Tuesday, even as the Greenback remained softer and US Treasury yields fell. Higher Crude Oil prices pressure the white metal. which is down 1.81% in the week, while risk appetite improves.

National Bank of Canada (NBC) analyst Matthieu Arseneau highlights that Canadian households saw net worth rise 5.8% in 2025, reaching a record high, as financial assets outpaced modest credit growth. The S&P/TSX delivered a 31.7% total return, aided by higher Gold prices.

United States (US) President Donald Trump said that the US has been informed by most NATO allies that they don’t want to get involved with the military operation in Iran. He claimed that the US no longer needs or wants NATO countries' assistance in a Truth Social post on Tuesday.

United States 52-Week Bill Auction rose from previous 3.345% to 3.485%

New Zealand GDT Price Index declined to 0.1% from previous 5.7%

EUR/GBP trades around 0.8640 on Tuesday at the time of writing, virtually unchanged for the day, as investors remain on the sidelines ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy decisions due on Thursday.

Scotiabank’s FX team highlights a modest Euro gain versus the Dollar, with EUR/USD supported after Monday’s bullish reversal. The pair is shrugging off weak German ZEW data as sentiment and elevated yield spreads underpin the Euro.

The GBP/USD pair is trading near the 1.3350 price region on Tuesday, striking a bullish tone as investors continue to move away from the US Dollar (USD) ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decision on Wednesday.

TD Securities strategists Prashant Newnaha and Alex Loo maintain a constructive stance on the Australian Dollar (AUD) despite the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) close 5-4 vote. A positive terms of trade shock and increased hedging by Australian pension funds underpin AUD outperformance in G10.

ING’s Commodities Strategist Ewa Manthey highlights that recent output cuts at Alba and Qatalum tighten the Aluminium supply outlook, with Gulf disruptions now affecting a notable share of regional production.

Commerzbank’s Commodity Analyst Carsten Fritsch compares current Oil disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz blockade with the 1970s oil crises, highlighting record supply shortfalls and potential demand and supply adjustments over time.

The British Pound (GBP) trades broadly flat against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Tuesday as a thin economic calendar keeps price action subdued, with attention firmly shifting to the Bank of England (BoE) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate decisions due on Thursday.

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is flat against the Dollar (USD) but supported by elevated Oil prices and narrow yield spreads.

TD Securities’ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali warns Gold is increasingly exposed as US 2-year yields break their downtrend and the macro backdrop shifts.

United States Pending Home Sales (YoY) fell from previous -0.4% to -0.8% in February

United States Pending Home Sales (MoM) above expectations (-0.5%) in February: Actual (1.8%)

Deutsche Bank’s Global Head of FX Research George Saravelos notes that the Iran war has made markets highly correlated to energy, with higher Oil prices and weaker global growth now supporting the Dollar. Asia FX is seen as central to broad Dollar direction and is being hit hardest.

Societe Generale economists assess how the reformed German debt brake and approved 2025–2026 budgets will lift German fiscal spending and affect the Euro area.

Rabobank’s Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley discusses Japanese Yen (JPY) dynamics around upcoming G10 central bank meetings and potential Bank of Japan policy shifts. Foley notes Governor Ueda’s hawkish tone, ongoing BoJ tightening expectations despite higher energy costs.

The Swiss Franc (CHF) weakens against the Euro (EUR), with EUR/CHF edging higher after reversing intraday losses, despite soft Eurozone Economic Sentiment data.

BNP Paribas argues emerging economies face a renewed stagflationary energy shock, but are not generally more vulnerable than in 2022. The bank highlights limited exchange rate depreciation, existing price-mitigation schemes, and stronger reserves.

Private-sector hiring in the US appears to have lost a bit of momentum toward the end of February. According to the NER Pulse, the weekly companion to the ADP National Employment Report, companies added an average of just 9K jobs per week in the four weeks through February 28.

EUR/JPY trades around 183.25 on Tuesday at the time of writing, up 0.14% on the day, extending its gains for a second consecutive session.

Rabobank Strategist Molly Schwartz and Christian Lawrence note that Canadian GDP contracted 0.6% quarter‑over‑quarter in Q4 2025 but still rose 0.7% year‑over‑year, with weakness driven by inventory drawdowns.

United States Redbook Index (YoY): 6.4% (March 13) vs 6.2%

BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage highlights U.S. diesel prices breaking above $5 per gallon for the first time since 2022, warning of pass‑through to transport and broader inflation and potential political risks into the U.S. midterms.

Commerzbank's FX & Commodity Analyst Volkmar Baur reports that Chinese Aluminium production has risen nearly 3% year-on-year and is running above the government’s annualized cap, supported by higher Aluminium prices and redirected Alumina flows as the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked.

United States ADP Employment Change 4-week average fell from previous 15.5K to 9K in February 21

Gold (XAU/USD) trades in a tight range on Tuesday as traders remain cautious and avoid large directional bets ahead of a heavy week of monetary policy announcements from major central banks. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades virtually unchanged around $5,008, hovering near one-month lows.

Commerzbank’s Commodity Analyst Carsten Fritsch notes that Gold has fallen about 5% since the Iran war began, struggling to act as a safe haven as a stronger Dollar and repriced Fed expectations weigh.

Silver price (XAG/USD) trades cautiously around $80.50 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The white metal wobbles in a tight range as investors shift focus to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday.

BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage highlights that the Canadian Dollar (CAD) has been among the best-performing G10 currencies over the past two weeks, helped by steady inflows during the Iran conflict.

AUD/USD trades around 0.7090 on Tuesday at the time of writing, up 0.25% on the day, rebounding after an initial pullback following the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary policy decision.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that the Dollar is trading defensively even as Brent holds above $100 and European gas prices stay elevated.

ING’s Francesco Pesole notes the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) delivered a split 25 bp hike to 4.10%, initially read as dovish and triggering a sell-the-fact move in AUD/USD before a rebound on Governor Bullock’s comments.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) claws back its early losses against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Tuesday.

The EUR/USD pair holds onto Monday’s gains slightly above 1.1500 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The major currency pair trades firmly as the US Dollar (USD) has come under pressure ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday.

German ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment arrives at -0.5 in March. Economists expected the sentiment data to come in lower at 38.7 from 58.3 in February.

Eurozone ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment below expectations (24) in March: Actual (-8.5)

TD Securities analysts note that US rates rallied as markets stabilised, with attention on Fed policy expectations and geopolitical headlines. While hike odds have risen, they pushes back, arguing the hawkish outcome is more likely a prolonged pause.

Germany ZEW Survey – Current Situation came in at -62.9, above forecasts (-67.1) in March

Germany ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment below forecasts (38.7) in March: Actual (-0.5)

MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Lee Hardman notes that the RBA delivered a second consecutive 25 bps hike to 4.10%, now the highest policy rate among G10 central banks, and that Australian Dollar gains versus the US Dollar were initially strong but faded.

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose notes that updated Polish CPI data confirm disinflation, with core inflation at 2.5% year-on-year, in line with the central bank of Poland, Narodowy Bank Polski (NBP) target.

Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Tuesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $80.62 per troy ounce, down 0.40% from the $80.94 it cost on Monday.

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky highlights that Central and Eastern European FX and rates have seen some relief despite elevated energy prices. Regional central banks currently treat the Gulf-related energy spike as a supply shock and prefer to wait, with no case for hikes.

Standard Chartered strategist Nicholas Chia notes that the Reserve Bank of Australia raised the cash rate to 4.10% in a 5-4 split decision, largely debating timing rather than direction.

Dow Jones futures decline 0.27% to trade near 46,850 during European hours ahead of the US regular market open on Tuesday. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures fall 0.50% and 0.58% to trade near 6,670 and 24,530 at the time of writing.

Italy Consumer Price Index (YoY) below expectations (1.6%) in February: Actual (1.5%)

Italy Consumer Price Index (MoM) registered at 0.7%, below expectations (0.8%) in February

Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY) registered at 1.5%, below expectations (1.6%) in February

Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM) came in at 0.5%, below expectations (0.6%) in February

Societe Generale strategists Michael Haigh, Ben Hoff and Jeremy Sellem, highlights rapidly falling Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and accelerating shut‑ins.

ING’s Francesco Pesole argues that even under a severe and prolonged Gulf conflict, European gas prices are unlikely to revisit 2022 extremes, supporting a constructive medium-term view on EUR/USD.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price recovers its recent losses registered in the previous session, trading around $96.10 per barrel during the European hours on Tuesday.

MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Lee Hardman highlights that USD/JPY is stalling just below 160.00 as Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama escalates verbal intervention, stressing readiness to respond at any time.

Rabobank Strategist Molly Schwartz and Christian Lawrence expects the Bank of Canada (BoC) to keep its overnight rate at 2.25% at the March 18 meeting and through year-end, despite elevated inflation and weaker activity.

The USD/CAD pair trades in a tight range around 1.3700 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The Loonie pair consolidates as investors await monetary policy announcements by the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) on Wednesday.

Israel Defense Forces (IDF) warn retaliation against Iran for attacking the United States (US) embassy in Iraq, in which four people were killed, The Guardian reported.

Commerzbank’s Antje Praefcke expects the Riksbank to keep its policy rate at 1.75% this week and signal no near-term changes, with a first hike only possible late in the year.

USD/CHF remains flat after paring daily gains, trading around 0.7880 during the European hours on Tuesday.

Deutsche Bank analysts note that Brent Oil has stabilised after recent conflict-driven spikes, with prices briefly falling back towards $100 as hopes grew for resumed flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

TD Securities strategists Prashant Newnaha and Alex Loo note the RBA lifted the cash rate by 25 bps to 4.10% in a narrow 5-4 decision, driven mainly by elevated domestic inflation and excess demand.

Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, March 17:

Indonesia Bank Indonesia Rate in line with expectations (4.75%)

Switzerland Producer and Import Prices (YoY): -2.7% (February) vs previous -2.2%

Switzerland Producer and Import Prices (MoM) came in at -0.3% below forecasts (0%) in February

According to UOB’s Senior Technical Strategist Quek Ser Leang, GBP/USD’s sharp rebound from 1.3226 to 1.3340 looks like short-covering rather than a trend change. The pair is expected to range between 1.3250 and 1.3350 intraday.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, attracts some dip-buyers following the previous day's pullback from its highest level since May 2025.

Commerzbank’s Antje Praefcke notes that the Dollar has benefited from safe-haven demand as the war in the Middle East weighs on sentiment, pushing EUR/USD below 1.15.

Silver price (XAG/USD) remains subdued after registering modest gains in the previous session, trading around $80.80 per troy ounce during the early European hours on Tuesday.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades lower against its major currency peers, except the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), is down 0.27% to near 1.3280 during the European trading session on Tuesday.

Danske Bank’s Danske Research Team underlines that conflict in the Middle East has intensified, with Iran targeting Oil and gas infrastructure in the UAE and elsewhere.

The NZD/USD pair attracts some sellers to around 0.5820 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday. The US Dollar (USD) edges higher against the Kiwi as traders weigh developments in the Iran war.

MUFG's Senior Currency Analyst Michael Wan notes that Bank Indonesia benefits from Indonesia’s net commodity exporter status, but faces weak starting macro conditions and fiscal constraints as oil rises. Higher energy prices threaten subsidy costs and the 3% of GDP deficit cap.

Rabobank’s Senior Global Strategist Michael Every argues escalating conflict involving Iran, Israel and regional actors is increasingly threatening Oil supply rather than just flows, with upstream fields now targeted.

BNY’s Americas Macro Strategist John Velis expects no policy change at the March FOMC meeting and very limited forward guidance, as the Federal Reserve grapples with higher inflation expectations from the Middle East conflict and a softening labor market.

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur highlights that the Reserve Bank of Australia delivered a second rate hike this year, but AUD/USD remains below 0.71 and choppy.

The GBP/JPY pair edges up to near 212.00 during the early European trading session on Tuesday.

The EUR/GBP cross holds steady near 0.8635 during the early European session on Tuesday. Traders prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decisions later on Thursday. Also, the UK employment report will be released. 

The AUD/USD pair claws back a majority of its early losses, which arrived after the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) interest rate decision, and rebounds to near 0.7085, following Governor Michele Bullock’s press conference.

The EUR/USD pair trades in negative territory around 1.1490 during the early European session on Tuesday.

The Indian Rupee (INR) trades lower against the US Dollar (USD) in the opening trade on Tuesday. The USD/INR pair rebounds to near 92.90 after a correction on Monday as the Indian Rupee resumes its downside journey amid the continuous outflow of foreign funds from the Indian stock market.

The USD/JPY pair attracts some dip-buying during the Asian session on Tuesday and stalls its modest pullback from the 159.75 area, or the highest level since July 2024, retested the previous day.

EUR/JPY extends its gains for the second successive session, trading around 183.10 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The currency cross appreciates as the Japanese Yen (JPY) struggles amid the BoJ's widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.75% on Thursday.

Japan Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) came in at 1.7%, above forecasts (0.8%) in January

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil prices regain some positive traction during the Asian session on Tuesday and recover a part of the previous day's retracement slide from the vicinity of the $100.00 psychological mark.

Gold prices rose in India on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

Gold (XAU/USD) edges higher during the Asian session on Tuesday, though it lacks follow-through and remains close to an over three-week low, touched the previous day.

The AUD/NZD cross trims a part of its intraday gains to the 1.2120 area, or the highest level since May 2013, following the key Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate decision, though it lacks follow-through selling.

The AUD/USD pair attracts some sellers to near 0.7060 during Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges lower against the US Dollar (USD) after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision.

AUD/JPY pares its daily gains, trading around 112.50 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The currency cross loses ground as the Australian Dollar (AUD) struggles following the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy decision.

Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision meets forecasts (4.1%)

The US Dollar (USD) holds its Monday’s corrective move, which was driven by a significant retracement in the oil price that eased de-anchored consumer inflation concerns.

GBP/USD inches lower after registering nearly 0.75 gains in the previous session, trading around 1.3310 during the Asian hours on Tuesday.

The NZD/USD pair meets with a fresh supply during the Asian session on Tuesday and erodes a part of the previous day's solid recovery from the vicinity of a one-month low, touched last week.

USD/JPY recovers losses from the previous session, trading near 159.40 during Asian hours on Tuesday. However, the upside of the pair may be limited as the Japanese Yen (JPY) could find support from potential intervention by Japanese authorities.

The USD/CAD pair posts modest losses around 1.3685 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East provides some support to the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) against the US Dollar (USD).

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Tuesday at 6.8961 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.9057 and 6.8874 Reuters estimate.

The EUR/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the previous day's goodish recovery move from the 1.1415-1.1410 area, or from the vicinity of the lowest level since July 2025, and edges lower during the Asian session on Tuesday.

AUD/USD edges lower after posting more than 1.25% gains in the previous session, trading near 0.7060 during Asian hours on Tuesday.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $94.20 during the early Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The WTI price rises as the Iran war shows no signs of ending soon.

Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Tuesday that underlying inflation gradually accelerating toward our 2% target. Ueda added that central bank will guide monetary policy appropriately to stably and durably achieve the inflation target.  

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is set to deliver another 25 basis points (bps) interest rate hike following its March monetary policy meeting on Tuesday, lifting the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 4.10% from 3.85%.

The Israeli military said on Tuesday that it has detected missiles launched from Iran heading towards Israeli territory. It urged people in affected areas to head to shelters immediately.

Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Tuesday that there is high volatility in financial markets, adding that she will respond against volatility in financial markets including foreign exchange.

US President Donald Trump said that the US has asked to delay his planned meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing by “a month or so” due to the ongoing war with Iran, CNBC reported on Monday.

Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, on Monday said his last contact with US envoy Steve Witkoff occurred before the US military strike on Iran on February 28. 

TD Securities’ Alex Loo notes China’s economy started 2026 strongly, with upside surprises in Industrial Production, Exports and a rebound in Fixed-Asset Investment driven by quasi-fiscal policy.

Gold price (XAU/USD) trades with mild losses near $5,000 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The precious metal extends the decline as hopes fade for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to lower interest rates this year. All eyes will be on the Fed interest rate decision later on Wednesday. 

GBP/USD gained almost 0.75% on Monday, bouncing from Friday's low close to 1.3220 to settle on the high side of 1.3300.

XAU/USD spun in a flat circle on Monday, settling close to 5,000 in a relatively contained session following last week's sharp decline from the highs.

USD/JPY backslid around 0.4% on Monday, snapping a four-session winning streak and pulling back to the 159.00 region in otherwise unremarkable market action.