Forex News Timeline

Friday, April 18, 2025

 Gold prices are set to end the week on a positive note, up by over 2.79% as the precious metal enjoyed a $90 US Dollar rally due to the latter weakness sponsored by uncertainty about global trade. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $3,326.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold rallies $90 this week as US Dollar weakens amid rising trade tensions and geopolitical risks.Fed’s Daly says policy is still restrictive; neutral rate may be rising, echoing Powell’s hawkish tone.Traders focus on key US data next week: Flash PMIs, Durable Goods, and final Consumer Sentiment. Gold prices are set to end the week on a positive note, up by over 2.79% as the precious metal enjoyed a $90 US Dollar rally due to the latter weakness sponsored by uncertainty about global trade. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $3,326.XAU/USD holds at $3,326 after hitting ATH of $3,358; real yields rise but long weekend profit-taking caps rallyEuropean and US markets are closed due to a long Easter weekend, so news flows are light. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly crossed the wires and said that the economy is in good place, though some sectors are slowing down. She added that Policy remains restrictive in good place, exerting downward pressure on inflation, and added that neutral rates “may be rising.”Bullion prices dropped after hitting an all-time high (ATH) of $3,358 as traders booked profits due to the long weekend. Wednesday’s hawkish speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell capped the precious metal advance, even though uncertainty over US trade policies and geopolitical risks, may underpin Gold prices.Yields rose, with the US 10-year T-note yield rising five basis points to 4.333%. US real yields, which are calculated by the yield of the nominal note minus inflation expectations, climb five bps to 2.163%, a headwind for Gold prices.Next week, the US economic docket will be packed by a flurry of Fed speakers, S&P Global Flash PMIs, Durable Goods Orders and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment final reading.XAU/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookGold's uptrend remains intact despite Thursday’s pullback below the $3,330 mark. As prices recover some earlier losses, the lack of downside follow-through suggests limited acceptance of lower levels, keeping the door open for further gains.Momentum-wise, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains overbought but not yet at the extreme 80 level. However, a mean-reversion move could be on the horizon with the RSI turning lower.In that case, initial support lies at $3,300, followed by the April 16 low at $3,229. On the upside, a break above $3,350 could set up a test of the year-to-date (YTD) high, with the next target at $3,400. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

The Euro advances against the US Dollar in muted trading, as financial markets are closed on Good Friday. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD trades at 1.1385, up 0.21%, lacking the strength to break the elusive 1.14 mark.

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At the time of writing, the EUR/USD trades at 1.1385, up 0.21%, lacking the strength to break the elusive 1.14 mark.EUR/USD up 0.21% in holiday-thinned trading as markets digest US-China shipping levies and renewed Fed independence concernsThe financial markets' narrative remains focused on the United States' (US) controversial trade policies, which drove prices to dump the Greenback in favor of other G8 FX peers, like the shared currency.Still, the White House is moving forward with applying levies on Chinese ships docking at US ports, which would threaten to shake up global shipping routes and escalate the trade war between China and the US.On Thursday, breaking news revealed that Trump was angered at Fed Chair Jerome Powell and considered ousting him. Although market participants did not react to the headline, recently, White House Senior Adviser Hasset insisted that “Trump is studying whether firing Fed's Powell is an option.”In the meantime, the US Dollar Index (DXY) which tracks the buck's performance against a basket of other six currencies, falls -0.09% down at 99.31.With the news flow light, ECB’s Madis Muller revealed that the drop in energy prices and tariffs supported the rate cut. He added that police do not remain a constraint and that key indicators are moving in the right direction. He also pointed out that a more fragmented economy could push prices up.EUR/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe EUR/USD trades near the current week’s peak near 1.1400, with price action showing the Euro is poised to extend its gains past that area, opening the door for further upside. Key resistance levels like at April 11 high at 1.1473, followed by 1.1498 the February 2022 peak ahead of the 1.1500 figure. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

India Bank Loan Growth remains unchanged at 11% in March 31

India FX Reserves, USD rose from previous $676.27B to $677.84B in April 7

Silver prices (XAG/USD) broadly unchanged on Friday, according to FXStreet data.

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The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 102.20 on Friday, broadly unchanged from 102.20 on Thursday. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Italy Trade Balance EU up to €-0.361B in February from previous €-0.635B

Italy Trade Balance EU declined to €-361B in February from previous €-0.635B

European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Madis Muller explained on Friday that their decision to cut key rates by 25 basis points at the April policy meeting was supported by the drop in energy prices, and tariffs.

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Italy Global Trade Balance came in at €4.466B, above forecasts (€3.31B) in February

European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Friday that the inflation risk from trade tensions seems weak and could even be downward, per Reuters.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Friday that the inflation risk from trade tensions seems weak and could even be downward, per Reuters.Commenting on US President Donald Trump's criticism of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell, "Fed's Powell is doing his job very well because he is telling the truth as it is," Villeroy said and added that Trump is wrong for criticizing Powell for cutting rates too slowly.Market reactionEUR/USD showed no immediate reaction to these comments and was last seen trading marginally higher on the day at 1.1375. ECB FAQs What is the ECB and how does it influence the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Euro? In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Euro? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.

AUD/JPY retraces its recent gains from the previous session, trading around 90.80 during the European hours on Friday. The currency cross remains under pressure as the Australian Dollar (AUD) weakens in light trading, with local markets closed for the Good Friday holiday.

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The currency cross remains under pressure as the Australian Dollar (AUD) weakens in light trading, with local markets closed for the Good Friday holiday.Minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) March 31–April 1 meeting highlighted uncertainty around the timing of the next interest rate move. While the Board viewed the May meeting as an appropriate time to reassess policy, it emphasized that no decision had been pre-committed. Risks to both economic growth and inflation remain balanced to the upside and downside.Australia’s March labor data showed the unemployment rate steady at 4.1%, but job gains missed expectations. This has fueled speculation of a potential 25 basis point rate cut in May, with some traders even considering a 50 basis point move amid growing concerns of a global slowdown tied to escalating tariffs.In Japan, the National Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.6% YoY in March, marking three consecutive years above the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) 2% inflation target, though slightly below February’s 3.7%. The “core-core” CPI—excluding fresh food and energy—accelerated to 2.9% from 2.6%, while core inflation (excluding only fresh food) rose to 3.2%, in line with forecasts.These inflation readings come ahead of the BoJ’s May 1 policy meeting, where the central bank is expected to maintain rates at 0.5% and potentially revise down its growth outlook as rising global trade tensions weigh on sentiment. Interest rates FAQs What are interest rates? Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation. How do interest rates impact currencies? Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. How do interest rates influence the price of Gold? Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold. What is the Fed Funds rate? The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
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The economic calendar will not offer any high-tier data releases, paving the way for subdued market action heading into the weekend. US Dollar PRICE This month The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this month. US Dollar was the weakest against the Swiss Franc. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -4.95% -2.70% -5.05% -3.80% -2.07% -4.94% -7.45% EUR 4.95% 2.39% -0.16% 1.15% 2.82% -0.05% -2.68% GBP 2.70% -2.39% -2.49% -1.22% 0.41% -2.39% -4.96% JPY 5.05% 0.16% 2.49% 1.32% 3.17% 0.77% -2.54% CAD 3.80% -1.15% 1.22% -1.32% 1.71% -1.18% -3.79% AUD 2.07% -2.82% -0.41% -3.17% -1.71% -2.79% -5.35% NZD 4.94% 0.05% 2.39% -0.77% 1.18% 2.79% -2.64% CHF 7.45% 2.68% 4.96% 2.54% 3.79% 5.35% 2.64% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). The European Central Bank (ECB) announced on Thursday that it lowered key rates by 25 basis points (bps) following the April policy meeting, as widely anticipated. In the post-meeting press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde refrained from hinting at the next policy move but acknowledged that the Eurozone's economic outlook is clouded by uncertainty. EUR/USD edged lower following the ECB event and ended the day in negative territory. Early Friday, the pair fluctuates in a tight channel above 1.1350.The data from the US showed on Thursday that weekly Initial Jobless Claims declined to 215,000 from 224,000 in the previous week. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said on Thursday that China has reached out to his administration to talk on tariffs and added that he think they will make a deal with China. The US Dollar (USD) Index closed marginally higher and stabilized at around 99.50 early Friday. After gaining more than 3% on Wednesday, Gold continued to push higher in the Asian session on Thursday and reached a new record-high of $3,357. In the second half of the day, XAU/USD corrected lower, possibly because of profit-taking, and settled at $3,327 for the week.GBP/USD closed in positive territory on Thursday and stretched higher toward 1.3280 before entering a consolidation phase.USD/JPY trades in a narrow band below 142.50 on Friday and remains on track to post losses for the third consecutive week. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda repeated on Friday that they will keep raising interest rates if underlying inflation accelerates toward the 2% target. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of six major currencies, is remaining below 99.50 during the early European hours on Friday. The Greenback remains subdued amid growing concerns over the economic impact of tariffs on the United States (US).

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The Greenback remains subdued amid growing concerns over the economic impact of tariffs on the United States (US). Market participants are closely monitoring developments in US trade negotiations, although trading activity is expected to be subdued due to the Good Friday holiday.However, the US Dollar gained some support after hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who cautioned that a sluggish economy combined with persistent inflation could complicate the Fed’s policy goals and heighten the risk of stagflation. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump criticized Powell for being too slow to cut interest rates, adding that his removal “can’t come quickly enough.”According to the CME FedWatch tool, money market traders are currently pricing in around 86 basis points of Fed rate cuts by the end of 2025, with the first reduction anticipated in July.US President Donald Trump stated on Thursday that China had made multiple overtures and added, "I don't want to go higher on China tariffs. If China tariffs go higher, people won't buy." Trump expressed optimism that a trade agreement with China could be reached within three to four weeks.On the labor front, the US Department of Labor reported Thursday that Initial Jobless Claims fell to 215,000 for the week ending April 12, below expectations and down from the previous week's revised figure of 224,000 (originally 223,000). However, Continuing Jobless Claims rose by 41,000 to 1.885 million for the week ending April 5. US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

The EUR/JPY cross trades flat near 161.85 during the early European session on Friday. US President Donald Trump's trade war remains a source of deep uncertainty. However, Trump on Thursday offered some encouraging signals that negotiations with other countries could lead to lower tariffs.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/JPY steadies around 161.85 in Friday’s early European session. Japan’s CPI inflation grew 3.6% YoY in March. The ECB cut rates by 25 bps to 2.25% at the April meeting on Thursday. The EUR/JPY cross trades flat near 161.85 during the early European session on Friday. US President Donald Trump's trade war remains a source of deep uncertainty. However, Trump on Thursday offered some encouraging signals that negotiations with other countries could lead to lower tariffs. The optimism surrounding trade talks could undermine safe-haven currencies like the Japanese Yen (JPY). Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI) grew 3.6% year on year in March, marking three straight years that the headline inflation figure is above the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) 2% target, the Japan Statistics Bureau revealed on Friday. This figure was lower than the 3.7% recorded in February.Meanwhile, the so-called “core-core” inflation rate, which strips out prices of both fresh food and energy, rose to 2.9% YoY in March from 2.6% in February. The core inflation, which strips out prices of fresh food, jumped to 3.2% YoY in March from the previous reading of 3.0%. The figure was in line with the market consensus. The data comes ahead of the BoJ's policy meeting on May 1. The BoJ is expected to keep interest rates steady at 0.5% and cut its growth estimates as Trump's steep tariffs cloud the economic outlook. Traders also closely monitor the developments in country-specific trade negotiations.On the Euro front, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut its main interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 2.25% at its April meeting on Thursday, citing growing trade tensions after Trump’s tariffs sparked a global trade war. ECB President Christine Lagarde said during the press conference that US tariffs on EU goods, which had increased from an average of 3% to 13%, were already harming the outlook for the European economy. The dovish stance from the ECB could weigh on the shared currency against the JPY. "It has a dovish tone. Focus has shifted to looking at the downside risk to the growth outlook, rather than upside risk to inflation,” said Kirstine Kundby-Nielsen, FX analyst at Danske Bank.   Inflation FAQs What is inflation? Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%. What is the Consumer Price Index (CPI)? The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls. What is the impact of inflation on foreign exchange? Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money. How does inflation influence the price of Gold? Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.

USD/JPY inches lower after registering gains in the previous session, trading around 142.40 during the Asian session on Friday. An analysis of the daily chart showed the pair moves downward within a descending channel, indicating a confirmed bearish bias.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}USD/JPY could retest the seven-month low of 141.61, recorded on Thursday.If the 14-day Relative Strength Index falls below the 30 level, it could potentially trigger a short-term corrective rebound.The primary initial resistance is located near the nine-day EMA at 143.80.USD/JPY inches lower after registering gains in the previous session, trading around 142.40 during the Asian session on Friday. An analysis of the daily chart showed the pair moves downward within a descending channel, indicating a confirmed bearish bias.The USD/JPY pair continues to trade below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), signaling subdued short-term momentum. Meanwhile, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers just above the 30 level, further supporting the ongoing bearish outlook. A drop below the 30 mark could suggest an oversold condition, potentially triggering a short-term corrective rebound.On the downside, the USD/JPY pair may revisit the seven-month low of 141.61, marked on Thursday, followed by the descending channel’s lower boundary near 140.80. A decisive break below this channel could reinforce the bearish bias and open the door for a move toward 139.58 — the lowest level since July 2023, last seen in September 2024.To the upside, initial resistance is seen at the nine-day EMA around 143.80. A breakout above this level could boost short-term momentum and pave the way for a test of the descending channel’s upper boundary near 146.30. Further resistance is located at the 50-day EMA at 148.30, followed by the two-month high of 151.31, recorded on March 3.USD/JPY: Daily Chart Japanese Yen PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the weakest against the Swiss Franc. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.10% -0.04% 0.00% 0.00% 0.13% 0.00% 0.00% EUR 0.10% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% GBP 0.04% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% JPY 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.24% 0.53% -0.06% CAD 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -0.02% 0.00% 0.00% AUD -0.13% 0.00% 0.00% -0.24% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% NZD 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -0.53% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% CHF 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.06% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

USD/CHF slipped slightly during Friday’s Asian trading hours, hovering around 0.8180, after posting gains in the previous session. The pair is under pressure as the US Dollar weakens amid mounting concerns over the economic fallout from US tariffs.

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The pair is under pressure as the US Dollar weakens amid mounting concerns over the economic fallout from US tariffs. Market activity remains muted due to the Good Friday holiday.Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell cautioned that persistent inflation coupled with a slowing economy could jeopardize the Fed’s dual mandate, raising the specter of stagflation. Sentiment was further dented after former President Trump criticized Powell’s recent comments. Despite this, the CME FedWatch Tool shows markets are now pricing in around 86 basis points of rate cuts by the end of 2025, with the first expected in July.Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc (CHF) strengthened on Thursday following upbeat Trade Balance data from Switzerland. The trade surplus widened to CHF 6.35 billion in March from CHF 4.80 billion in February—the largest since October 2024—driven by a 12.6% surge in exports versus a 10.4% rise in imports.The CHF gained against the USD, hovering near its strongest level since 2011, as escalating US-China trade tensions fuel recession fears and bolster demand for the safe-haven Swiss currency. However, US President Donald Trump stated on Thursday that China had made multiple overtures and added, "I don't want to go higher on China tariffs. If China tariffs go higher, people won't buy." Trump expressed optimism that a trade agreement with China could be reached within three to four weeks. Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.

The EUR/USD pair strengthens to around 1.1370 during the early European trading hours on Friday. Hopes for a trade deal between the United States (US) and the European Union (EU) provide some support to the Euro (EUR). Trading volume is likely to be lightened on Good Friday.

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Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $63.50 during the Asian session on Friday. The WTI price edges higher to a two-week high amid hopes for a trade deal between the United States and the European Union and fresh US sanctions on Iran.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}WTI price extends the rally to a two-week high around $63.50 in Friday’s Asian session. Trump expressed optimism about reaching a trade deal with the EU. US sanctions on Iran raise supply concerns, boosting the WTI price.West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $63.50 during the Asian session on Friday. The WTI price edges higher to a two-week high amid hopes for a trade deal between the United States and the European Union and fresh US sanctions on Iran. Trading volume is likely to be lightened on Good Friday.US President Donald Trump and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni met in Washington, signaling hope for resolving trade disputes that have strained US-European ties. "We're going to have very little problem making a deal with Europe or anybody else, because we have something that everybody wants," Trump told reporters.The new US sanctions to curb Iranian oil exports continued to elevate supply concerns and lift the WTI price. The statement noted that the US continues to aggressively sanction Iran under the Trump-era 'maximum pressure' policy. As long as Iran attempts to generate oil revenues to fund its destabilizing activities, the US will hold both Iran and all of its sanctions evaders responsible. "The U.S. continues to aggressively sanction Iran and impose sanctions against buyers of Iranian oil. OPEC+ has also provided updates and reassurance to the market, stating that they remain in control with flexibility to cut production if needed,” said analysts at energy consulting firm Gelber and Associates.About the data, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly report showed crude oil stockpiles in the US for the week ending April 11 increased by 515,000 barrels, compared to a rise of 2.553 million barrels in the previous week. The market consensus estimated that stocks would increase by 400,000 barrels.   WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

USD/CAD halts its two days of losses, trading around 1.3860 during the Asian hours. However, market activity is expected to remain subdued due to the Good Friday holiday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/CAD gains support following hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.CME FedWatch Tool suggested that traders are now anticipating the first rate cut in July.The commodity-linked CAD may find support from stronger crude Oil prices.USD/CAD halts its two days of losses, trading around 1.3860 during the Asian hours. However, market activity is expected to remain subdued due to the Good Friday holiday. The US Dollar found support from hawkish comments by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who warned that persistent inflation and a slowing economy could threaten the Fed’s dual mandate, raising the risk of stagflation.Market sentiment took another hit after President Trump criticized Fed Chair Powell’s recent remarks. However, the CME FedWatch Tool suggested that traders are now pricing in approximately 86 basis points of rate cuts by the end of 2025, with the first cut anticipated in July.On the data front, the US Department of Labor (DOL) reported that Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 215,000 for the week ending April 12, beating forecasts and down from a revised 224,000. However, Continuing Claims rose by 41,000 to 1.885 million for the week ending April 5.Gains in the USD/CAD pair may be capped as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) could find support from stronger crude Oil prices. Oil rallied after the US imposed new sanctions on Iranian exports, sparking concerns over tighter global supply. Meanwhile, uncertainty lingers over potential US tariffs on key commodities including copper, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and lumber.The Bank of Canada (BoC) warned that a spike in inflation driven by a potential Trump-era global trade war could plunge the economy into a “deep recession.” While it refrained from issuing an updated forecast, the BoC outlined two potential scenarios reflecting the uncertainty surrounding future US tariff policy and its impact on Canada’s outlook. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

NZD/USD is trading subdued around 0.5970 during Friday’s Asian session, holding near Thursday’s five-month high of 0.5979 after seven consecutive days of gains. The pair could see further upside as the US Dollar (USD) weakens amid rising concerns over the economic fallout from US tariffs.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}NZD/USD hovers near the five-month high of 0.5979, reached on Thursday.Investors remain focused on US trade policy developments, particularly due to New Zealand’s significant export relationship with China.The NZD stays rangebound as expectations of further monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.NZD/USD is trading subdued around 0.5970 during Friday’s Asian session, holding near Thursday’s five-month high of 0.5979 after seven consecutive days of gains. The pair could see further upside as the US Dollar (USD) weakens amid rising concerns over the economic fallout from US tariffs. However, trading volumes are likely to remain thin due to the Good Friday holiday.Investors are keeping a close eye on developments in US trade policy, especially given New Zealand’s strong export ties with China, its largest trading partner. On Thursday, US President Donald Trump noted that China had made several overtures, adding, “I don't want to go higher on China tariffs. If China tariffs go higher, people won’t buy.” He expressed optimism that a trade deal could be reached within three to four weeks.On the economic data front, US Initial Jobless Claims fell to 215,000 for the week ending April 12, beating expectations and down from a revised 224,000. However, Continuing Claims rose by 41,000 to 1.885 million for the week ending April 5.The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) remains rangebound as expectations of further easing by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) weigh on sentiment. With inflation still within the RBNZ’s target range, markets are pricing in a rate cut in May and anticipate the Official Cash Rate to fall to 2.75% by year-end. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

The Gold price (XAU/USD) holds steady on Friday after retreating from an all-time high of $3,358 as investors book profits during a long Easter weekend.

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Significant uncertainty over US President Donald Trump's tariffs on imports into the US and ongoing geopolitical tensions could underpin the Gold price, which is known as a safe haven asset.On the other hand, the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell turned hawkish, reducing the likelihood of a Fed rate reduction in June. This, in turn, could lift the Greenback and weigh on the USD-denominated commodity price. Powell said that a weak economy and high inflation could conflict with the Fed's goals and make a stagflationary scenario possible. The Federal Reserve's (Fed) Mary Daly is scheduled to speak later on Friday. Trading volume is likely to be lightened on Good Friday.Gold price drifts lower on Good Friday"Gold remains heavily supported by a broadly weaker dollar, uncertainty around tariff announcements and fears about a global recession," said Lukman Otunuga, senior research analyst at online trading broker FXTM.The US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending April 12 dropped to 215K, according to the US Department of Labor (DOL) on Thursday. This figure came in below initial estimates and was lower than the previous week of 224K (revised from 223K).Continuing Jobless Claims for the week ending April 5 went up by 41K to 1.885M versus 1.844M prior (revised from 1.85M). The US Building Permits rose 1.6% to 1.482 million in March, exceeding the 1.45 million estimates. Meanwhile, Housing Starts declined to 1.324M in March from 1.494M in February (revised from 1.501M). Money market traders have priced in nearly 86 bps of Fed rate cuts by the end of 2025, with the first cut expected in July, according to the CME FedWatch tool.Gold price bullish bias lingers, overbought RSI warrants caution for bullsGold price trades on a flat note on the day. The precious metal keeps the bullish vibe on the daily timeframe, characterized by the price holding above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average. Nonetheless, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) moves above the 70.00 mark, indicating overbought conditions and warranting some caution. This suggests that further consolidation or a temporary sell-off is on the cards. On the bright side, the immediate resistance level to watch is $3,355, the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band. Sustained trading above the mentioned level could pave the way to the $3,400 psychological level. In the bearish case, the low of April 18 at $3,230 acts as an initial support level for XAU/USD. Further south, the next contention level is seen at $3,105, the low of April 2.   Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

GBP/USD continues its upward momentum from April 8, trading near 1.3280 during Friday's Asian session. The pair is buoyed by a weakening US Dollar (USD), as concerns grow over the economic impact of tariffs on the United States.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}GBP/USD rises as the US Dollar comes under pressure amid growing worries over the economic fallout from US tariffs.Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that a sluggish economy paired with persistent inflation could elevate the risk of stagflation.UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves is set to hold talks with US officials next week to push forward trade deal negotiations.GBP/USD continues its upward momentum from April 8, trading near 1.3280 during Friday's Asian session. The pair is buoyed by a weakening US Dollar (USD), as concerns grow over the economic impact of tariffs on the United States. While market participants monitor developments in US trade talks, trading activity is expected to remain light due to the Good Friday holiday.The USD found some support after hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who cautioned that a sluggish economy coupled with persistent inflation could challenge the Fed’s dual mandate and increase stagflation risks. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in around 86 basis points of rate cuts by the end of 2025, with the first expected in July.On the data front, the US Department of Labor reported that Initial Jobless Claims fell to 215,000 for the week ending April 12, beating expectations and down from a revised 224,000 the previous week. However, Continuing Claims rose by 41,000 to 1.885 million for the week ending April 5.UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves plans to meet with US officials next week to advance trade deal discussions. The Telegraph reports that the White House believes a deal could be finalized “within three weeks.”UK economic data has shown signs of resilience, with strong wage growth and improving GDP figures. However, easing inflation is fueling expectations of rate cuts from the Bank of England (BoE). March CPI slowed to 2.6% year-over-year, below forecasts, while monthly inflation edged down to 0.3%. Core services inflation, a key BoE gauge, dipped to 4.7%. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Kato said on Friday that the country does not manipulate the foreign exchange (FX) market to weaken the Japanese Yen. 

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Hard to say how US long-term interest rates would move as they will be driven by various factors.Market reactionAt the time of writing, the USD/JPY pair is trading 0.04% lower on the day to trade at 142.40.  Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends its rally that began on April 9, with the AUD/USD pair gaining ground as the US Dollar (USD) weakens amid growing concerns over the economic impact of tariffs on the United States (US).

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Market participants are closely monitoring developments in US trade negotiations, although trading activity is expected to be subdued due to the Good Friday holiday.On late Thursday, US President Donald Trump stated that China had made multiple overtures and added, "I don't want to go higher on China tariffs. If China tariffs go higher, people won't buy." Trump expressed optimism that a trade agreement with China could be reached within three to four weeks.The AUD received a boost after President Trump announced exemptions for key technology products from the newly proposed “reciprocal” tariffs. These exemptions—covering items such as smartphones, computers, semiconductors, solar cells, and flat-panel displays—favor goods predominantly produced in China, Australia's largest trading partner and a significant consumer of its commodity exports.Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) March 31–April 1 Meeting Minutes indicated ongoing uncertainty around the timing of the next interest rate adjustment. Although the Board considered the May meeting a suitable point to review monetary policy, it stressed that no decisions had been made in advance. The Board also pointed to both upside and downside risks facing Australia's economy and inflation trajectory.Australian Dollar appreciates as US Dollar struggles amid rising economic concernsThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against a basket of six major currencies, is trading lower at around 99.30 at the time of writing. However, the US Dollar found some support following hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who warned that a sluggish economy paired with persistent inflation could challenge the Fed’s objectives and raise the risk of stagflation.According to the CME FedWatch tool, money market traders are currently pricing in around 86 basis points of Fed rate cuts by the end of 2025, with the first reduction anticipated in July.On the labor front, the US Department of Labor reported Thursday that Initial Jobless Claims fell to 215,000 for the week ending April 12, below expectations and down from the previous week's revised figure of 224,000 (originally 223,000). However, Continuing Jobless Claims rose by 41,000 to 1.885 million for the week ending April 5.The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation eased to 2.4% year-over-year in March, down from 2.8% in February and below the market forecast of 2.6%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 2.8% annually, compared to 3.1% previously and missing the 3.0% estimate. On a monthly basis, headline CPI dipped by 0.1%, while core CPI edged up by 0.1%.Australia’s Unemployment Rate rose to 4.1% in March, slightly below the market forecast of 4.2%. Meanwhile, Employment Change came in at 32.2K, against the consensus forecast of 40K.Australia’s Westpac Leading Index’s six-month annualised growth rate, which forecasts economic momentum relative to the trend over the next three to nine months, eased to 0.6% in March from 0.9% in February.China’s Foreign Ministry stated on Thursday that if the United States continues to engage in tariff-related provocations, China will simply disregard them.China’s economy grew at an annual rate of 5.4% in the first quarter of 2025, matching the pace seen in Q4 2024 and surpassing market expectations of 5.1%. On a quarterly basis, GDP rose by 1.2% in Q1, following a 1.6% increase in the previous quarter, falling short of the forecasted 1.4% gain.Meanwhile, China’s Retail Sales surged 5.9% year-over-year, beating expectations of 4.2% and up from February’s 4%. Industrial Production also outperformed, rising 7.7% compared to the 5.6% forecast and February’s 5.9% print.Australian Dollar could test psychological 0.6400 level near four-month highs
The AUD/USD pair is hovering near 0.6390 on Friday, with daily chart indicators pointing to a bullish bias. The pair is holding above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above the neutral 50 mark—both supporting continued upward momentum.To the upside, the AUD/USD pair could find key resistance at the psychological 0.6400 level, followed by the four-month high of 0.6408, last reached on February 21.On the downside, initial support lies at the nine-day EMA of 0.6311, with additional support at the 50-day EMA near 0.6283. A break below these levels could weaken the short-term bullish outlook and open the door for a deeper decline toward the 0.5914 zone—its lowest level since March 2020.AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.14% -0.12% 0.00% 0.00% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00% EUR 0.14% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% GBP 0.12% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% JPY 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.09% -0.12% -0.16% CAD 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -0.01% 0.00% 0.00% AUD -0.04% 0.00% 0.00% -0.09% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% NZD 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.12% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% CHF 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.16% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

The USD/JPY pair softens to near 142.25 in a thin trading volume session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) edges lower against the Japanese Yen (JPY) amid concerns over the economic impact of tariffs. 

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/JPY loses ground in Friday’s early Asian session. Japanese CPI climbed 3.6% YoY in March; core CPI rose 3.2%. The US Initial Jobless Claims fell to the lowest level in two months. The USD/JPY pair softens to near 142.25 in a thin trading volume session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) edges lower against the Japanese Yen (JPY) amid concerns over the economic impact of tariffs. Data released by the Japan Statistics Bureau on Friday showed that the National Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.6% YoY in March, compared to the previous reading of 3.7%. Meanwhile, National CPI ex Fresh food came in at 3.2% YoY in March versus 3.0% prior. The figure was in line with the market consensus. Finally, CPI ex Fresh Food, Energy rose 2.9% YoY in March, compared to the previous reading of 2.6%. The Japanese Yen remains strong against the Greenback in an immediate reaction to the Japanese inflation data. However, the upside for the JPY might be limited as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) officials signaled a pause in considering interest-rate hikes, stressing the need to monitor uncertainties heightened by US tariff measures. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Thursday, “We will assess the economy and inflation carefully for an appropriate policy decision by being duly mindful of rising uncertainties stemming from US tariff measures and other issues.” Fellow board member Junko Nakagawa echoed Ueda’s view in separate remarks, saying that it is necessary to monitor developments with high vigilance. Japan’s Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato is expected to meet separately with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to continue the negotiations initiated by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's top tariff negotiator Ryosei Akazawa. Investors will keep an eye on developments in country-specific trade negotiations.The US economic data Thursday were mixed. The US Initial Jobless Claims fell to the lowest level in two months, signaling a stable labor market. Additionally, the Philadelphia Fed Index declined, missing the estimations, a warning shot from manufacturing. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.6% YoY in March, compared to the previous reading of 3.7%, according to the latest data released by the Japan Statistics Bureau on Friday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.6% YoY in March, compared to the previous reading of 3.7%, according to the latest data released by the Japan Statistics Bureau on Friday.Further details unveil that the National CPI ex Fresh food arrived at 3.2% YoY in March versus 3.0% prior. The figure was in line with the market consensus of 3.2%.CPI ex Fresh Food, Energy rose 2.9% YoY in March, compared to the previous reading of 2.6%.Market reaction to Japan’s National CPI dataFollowing Japan’s CPI inflation data, the USD/JPY pair is down 0.05% on the day at 142.38. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

Japan National CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) in line with forecasts (3.2%) in March

Japan National Consumer Price Index (YoY) fell from previous 3.7% to 3.6% in March

Japan National CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) up to 2.9% in March from previous 2.6%

The EUR/USD pair attracts some buyers to near 1.1370 during the early Asian session on Friday. The concerns over the economic impact of tariffs continue to drag the US Dollar (USD) lower against the Euro (EUR). Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding US trade talks.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD gains traction around 1.1370 in Friday’s early Asian session. ECB cut interest rates to their lowest level since late 2022. Fed’s Powell warned that Trump’s tariffs could lead to a challenging scenario for the US central bank.The EUR/USD pair attracts some buyers to near 1.1370 during the early Asian session on Friday. The concerns over the economic impact of tariffs continue to drag the US Dollar (USD) lower against the Euro (EUR). Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding US trade talks. Trading volume is likely to be lightened on Good Friday.The European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates for the third time this year on Thursday, bringing its main interest rate to 2.25% in response to slowing growth and US President Donald Trump’s tariffs. ECB President Christine Lagarde said during the press conference that US tariffs on EU goods, which had increased from an average of 3% to 13%, were already harming the outlook for the European economy. Analysts believe that further rate cuts in June are still highly possible and that only a major easing in trade tensions would convince the ECB to pause. "It has a dovish tone. Focus has shifted to looking at the downside risk to the growth outlook rather than the upside risk to inflation,” said Kirstine Kundby-Nielsen, FX analyst at Danske Bank. The dovish stance of the ECB could weigh on the shared currency in the near term. Across the pond, the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell turned hawkish, saying that a weak economy and high inflation could conflict with the Fed's goals and make a stagflationary scenario possible. His comments reduced the likelihood of a Fed rate reduction in June, which lifts the US Dollar (USD) against the EUR. Money market traders have priced in nearly 86 bps of Fed rate cuts by the end of 2025, with the first cut expected in July, according to the CME FedWatch tool.  Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

The US President, Donald Trump, held a press conference in the Oval Office in Washington. He discussed trade deals with China, tariffs, and the acquisition of US Steel by Nippon Steel.

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We want US Steel to remain in US hands.
We don't want foreign businesses buying US Steel.
Nippon Steel could be part of trade talks with Japan.
I doubt Nippon Steel deal will be a part of Japan tariffs.
Nippon can invest or be a partner.
We set a number, people pay that number or go elsewhere.
We're going to do it without Nippon.
We're talking to China.
China has reached out since 145% tariff.
I don't want to say We're talking to Xi directly.
It's pretty obvious Xi has reached out directly.
At a certain point people won't buy.
We have a deal for TikTok but subject to China.
China would like to see us do the deal we have.
I think we will make a deal with China.
I think we have a lot of time.
If we don't make a deal, we set a target.
Deals over the next three to four weeks.
Reiterates computer and chips tariff threat.
Reiterates tariffs on cars, steel and aluminum.
We have some other things that we're going to be adding in the not too distant future. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.

Gold retreated on Thursday ahead of the Good Friday Easter holiday, losing 0.60%, after enjoying a rally of close to $400 gains during the last seven trading days on uncertainty about the United States' (US) trade policies. /USD trades at $3,319 after hitting a record high of $3,357 earlier in the s

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Wednesday’s speech by the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell continues to be digested by the markets.Fed Chair Powell turned hawkish, revealing that a weak economy and high inflation could conflict with the central bank's two goals, making a stagflationary scenario possible.“We may find ourselves in the challenging scenario in which our dual-mandate goals are in tension,” he said. “If that were to occur, we would consider how far the economy is from each goal, and the potentially different time horizons over which those respective gaps would be anticipated to close.”Regarding trade talks, Trump said they’re doing well and added that he is very confident about a trade deal with the European Union (EU) and China.Data-wise, the European Central Bank (ECB) reduced rates by 25 basis points earlier and the US economic docket revealed the US labor market remains solid, but not so housing, after printing strong Building Permits figures, but weak Housing Starts.Daily digest market movers: Gold price falls as US yields riseThe US 10-year Treasury yield rises five basis points to 4.333%. US real yields followed suit, climbing five bps to 2.163%, as shown by the US 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities yields failing to cap Gold prices.US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending April 12 came in at 215K, down from 224K and below the 225K forecast—highlighting continued strength in the labor market.Building Permits rose 1.6% to 1.482 million, exceeding the 1.45 million estimates. In contrast, Housing Starts dropped sharply from 1.494 million to 1.324 million, indicating softness in residential construction.In rates markets, money market traders have priced in 86 basis points of Fed rate cuts by the end of 2025, with the first cut expected in July.XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold price retraces, but remains poised to test new record highsThe uptrend in Gold prices remains despite retreating somewhat on Thursday, below the $3,330 figure. As the precious metals trim some of their earlier losses, price action indicates the lack of acceptance of lower prices, opening the door for further upside.From a momentum standpoint, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is overbought but not near the 80 extreme level. Nevertheless, as the RSI aims lower, it suggests that a mean reversion move is on the cards. In the event of that outcome, XAU/USD's first support would be the $3,300 figure. A breach of the latter will expose the April 16 daily low of $3,229.If bulls push prices past $3,350, they could test the year-to-date (YTD) peak, followed by $3,400. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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