Forex News Timeline

Tuesday, April 7, 2026

OCBC strategists Christopher Wong and Sim Moh Siong highlight that USD/SGD has softened as markets weigh de-escalation hopes, with technical signals pointing to fading bullish momentum and a potential bearish phase. They flags key support and resistance levels around 1.2810–1.2780 and 1.29–1.2940.

OCBC strategists Christopher Wong and Sim Moh Siong highlight that USD/SGD has softened as markets weigh de-escalation hopes, with technical signals pointing to fading bullish momentum and a potential bearish phase. They flags key support and resistance levels around 1.2810–1.2780 and 1.29–1.2940. Ahead of the upcoming Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) meeting, OCBC sees all policy options open but leans toward a steeper S$NEER slope.Key supports eyed before MAS meeting"USD/SGD traded softer overnight as markets weigh de-escalation hopes. Pair was last seen at 1.2845. Bullish momentum on daily chart continues to show signs of fading while RSI eased.""Price pattern shows a bearish engulfing candlestick, which may point to near term bearish pressure. Support at 1.2810/20 levels (21, 100 DMAs), 1.2780 levels (38.2% fibo retracement of Nov high to 2026 low).""Break below puts next support at 1.2780 (38.2% fibo), 1.2740 (50 DMA). Resistance at 1.29 (61.8% fibo), 1.2940.""All policy options are on the table, though we lean more towards a steepening of the S$NEER policy band slope."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

USD/CHF trims some of its earlier gains as the market mood improved on a Reuters headline that a Senior Iranian official said Tehran is reviewing positively Pakistan’s two-week ceasefire proposal, which pushed US equities higher.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}USD/CHF trims gains as risk sentiment improves on ceasefire hopes.RSI remains bullish, signaling buyers still control overall trend.Break above 0.8000 targets 0.8042 and 0.8100 resistance levels.USD/CHF trims some of its earlier gains as the market mood improved on a Reuters headline that a Senior Iranian official said Tehran is reviewing positively Pakistan’s two-week ceasefire proposal, which pushed US equities higher. At the time of writing, the pair edges towards its opening price, up 0.08% at 0.7978.USD/CHF Price Analysis: Technical OutlookThe USD/CHF technical picture appears constructive, but a failure to clear 0.8000 is exacerbating a pullback towards 0.7950. Price action suggests that the uptrend is intact, as the series of subsequent higher highs and higher lows remains intact, but a break below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7941 could put the uptrend at risk. A breach of the latter will expose the 20-day SMA at 0.7918, followed by the April 1 low of 0.7904.Conversely, if USD/CHF rises above 0.8000, this opens the door for further upside. The next area of interest will be the March 31 swing high at 0.8042, followed by the 0.8100 mark.Momentum-wise, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bullish, suggesting buyers remain in charge.USD/CHF Price Chart — DailyUSD/CHF Daily Chart Swiss Franc Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies today. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.53% -0.47% -0.10% -0.15% -0.82% -0.30% -0.12% EUR 0.53% 0.06% 0.41% 0.34% -0.31% 0.23% 0.42% GBP 0.47% -0.06% 0.36% 0.29% -0.32% 0.18% 0.37% JPY 0.10% -0.41% -0.36% -0.06% -0.72% -0.20% -0.01% CAD 0.15% -0.34% -0.29% 0.06% -0.66% -0.15% 0.06% AUD 0.82% 0.31% 0.32% 0.72% 0.66% 0.51% 0.72% NZD 0.30% -0.23% -0.18% 0.20% 0.15% -0.51% 0.21% CHF 0.12% -0.42% -0.37% 0.01% -0.06% -0.72% -0.21% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).

Silver price extended its losses on Tuesday as the white metal failed to clear the $75.00 milestone, while the 20-day SMA crossed below the 100-day SMA, an indication that sellers are gaining traction. The XAG/USD trades at $72.24, down 0.69%.

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The XAG/USD trades at $72.24, down 0.69%.XAG/USD Price Analysis: Technical OutlookSilver’s fall below the 100-day SMA on April 2, exacerbated a move lower, initially towards $69.58, before recovering some ground, pairing some of its losses, closing the day above $70.00. After this, XAG/USD remains capped on the upside by the $74.00, registering back-to-back days of lower highs, an indication that sellers are in charge.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) further confirms that bears are strengthening, as the index sits below its 50-neutral level.For a bearish continuation, bears must clear the $70.00 psychological support. A breach of the latter will expose the April 2 $69.58 level, followed by the February 6 swing low at $64.10.On the upside, key resistance emerges at the confluence of the 20- and 100-day SMAs around $75.11/14. On further strength, and a move towards the March 3 daily low turned resistance at $77.98 is on the cards.XAG/USD Price Chart — DailyXAG/USD Daily Chart Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Gold price (XAU/USD) advances some 0.63% on Tuesday as Oil prices retreat from daily highs amid speculation of broken talks between the US and Iran, which Iranian media denied.

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However, fears are mounting as US President Donald Trump's deadline to reopen the Hormuz Strait approaches , with investors awaiting a possible agreement before the US resumes attacks on Iran’s installations.Bullion holds firm as mixed Iran headlines keep haven demand aliveXAU/USD trades at $4,678 after bouncing off daily lows of $4,607, underpinned by a weaker US Dollar, which, according to the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck's performance against six currencies, falls 0.17% to 99.82.Geopolitical news headlines show mixed signals on the Middle East conflict, creating confusion amongst investors, which so far keeps the yellow metal bid. Recent headlines reporting that the US-Iran diplomacy was cut off were denied by the Tehran Times, though the Wall Street Journal reports that both sides are sticking to a hard line, showing no signs of backing down.So far, attacks by the US, Israel and Iran intensified ahead of Trump’s deadline, which expires at 8.00 p.m. Eastern Time on Tuesday. Although progress has been made in the past 24 hours in the negotiations, reaching a ceasefire seems unlikely, Axios reported, citing a US official, an Israeli official, and others. CNN reported that the Israeli military is on standby, ready to launch strikes, ahead of US President Trump's deadline on Iran to reopen the strait, according to Israeli sources.Fed’s Goolsbee policy not to please the US PresidentFederal Reserve (Fed) speakers crossed the wires, led by regional Fed Bank Presidents Austan Goolsbee and John Williams. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee denied that the Fed Act is meant to make the stock market or the US President happy, warning that taking away the central bank’s independence would push inflation higher.John Williams from the New York Fed warned that the energy shock spurred by the Middle East conflict will likely lift headline inflation, projecting it to stay elevated into mid-year and reach around 2.75% annually. He added that policy remains at an appropriate level.US data showed that Durable Goods Orders contracted by 1.4% in February, marking a third consecutive decline and missing expectations of a 0.5% contraction. However, core goods surprised to the upside, increasing 0.8% MoM.The New York Fed’s consumer survey showed inflation expectations drifted higher in March, with the one-year outlook rising to 3.4%, while medium-term expectations ticked up slightly and long-term expectations remained anchored.Consequently, traders are not expecting further Fed easing in 2026. Money markets project interest rates to remain unchanged throughout the full year, according to Prime Market data.Fed interest rate probabilitiesSource: Prime Market TerminalAhead this week, traders are eyeing speeches by Fed officials, the minutes of the FOMC's last meeting, growth data, Initial Jobless Claims and inflation figures.XAU/USD technical analysis: Gold recoils from $4,700, sellers target 100-day SMAThe technical picture shows that Gold prices remain sideways, with key support at the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,644 and immediate resistance at the 20-day SMA at $4,731. Momentum indicates that neither buyers nor sellers are in control, as shown by the Relative Strength Index (RSI).For further upside, XAU/USD must clear $4,700, followed by the 20-day SMA at $4,731. Once surpassed, a move towards the 50-day SMA at $4,937 is on the cards. Conversely, if Gold remains below $4,700, the first support would be $4,600, followed by the April 2 daily low at $4,553, ahead of $4,500. Gold Daily Chart Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

Commerzbank strategists Dr. Henry Hao and Moses Lim note that Vietnam’s Q1 GDP grew 7.8% year-on-year, slightly above expectations but below the government’s 10% 2026 target. Exports and imports surged, reflecting robust external demand and precautionary inventory building.

Commerzbank strategists Dr. Henry Hao and Moses Lim note that Vietnam’s Q1 GDP grew 7.8% year-on-year, slightly above expectations but below the government’s 10% 2026 target. Exports and imports surged, reflecting robust external demand and precautionary inventory building. Inflation accelerated to 4.7%, above the State Bank of Vietnam’s target, while USD/VND stayed stable as the central bank maintained a steady fixing to limit volatility.Robust activity and rising inflation"Q1 GDP rose more than expected by 7.8% yoy (Bloomberg consensus: 7.6%) vs 8.5% in Q4 2025.""On monthly data, March exports surged 20.1% yoy (Bloomberg consensus: 16.5%) vs 5.7% in February despite rising global headwinds due to the conflict in the Middle East.""On the inflation front, March CPI rose more than expected by 4.7% yoy (Bloomberg consensus: 4.0%) vs 3.4% in February, slightly above the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) target of 4.5%.""USD/VND was flat yesterday at around 26,337."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

United States Consumer Credit Change below expectations ($10B) in February: Actual ($9.48B)

The US Dollar Index (DXY) held near 99.80, not far from last week’s 100 peak, broadly supported as markets remain locked on the Iran conflict and, in particular, on United States (US) President Donald Trump’s deadline for 8:00pm EST tied to the Strait of Hormuz.

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Tehran rejected a temporary ceasefire and has closed all communication lines with the US, setting conditions for any lasting peace deal, while Oil markets keep pricing in a prolonged disruption risk. At the same time, US February core capital goods orders beat expectations at 0.6%, even as headline durable goods orders fell 1.4%, giving the Greenback an additional layer of support ahead of this week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes and PCE inflation data. US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.34% -0.23% 0.05% -0.08% -0.53% 0.00% 0.07% EUR 0.34% 0.10% 0.35% 0.23% -0.21% 0.33% 0.41% GBP 0.23% -0.10% 0.25% 0.14% -0.29% 0.24% 0.32% JPY -0.05% -0.35% -0.25% -0.11% -0.56% -0.04% 0.04% CAD 0.08% -0.23% -0.14% 0.11% -0.45% 0.06% 0.15% AUD 0.53% 0.21% 0.29% 0.56% 0.45% 0.53% 0.61% NZD -0.00% -0.33% -0.24% 0.04% -0.06% -0.53% 0.10% CHF -0.07% -0.41% -0.32% -0.04% -0.15% -0.61% -0.10% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). EUR/USD spiked to near the 1.1580 area, staying resilient even as the US Dollar (USD) remained firm. The Euro found support from rising expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) may need to tighten policy if the Oil shock feeds into broader inflation, with ECB officials signaling readiness to act if price pressure becomes persistent.GBP/USD climbed toward 1.3270, edging slightly higher on the day, but the British Pound still traded close to a more than four-month low versus the Greenback as investors worried about the United Kingdom’s (UK) exposure to imported energy and the country’s fragile fiscal backdrop.USD/JPY stayed muted near 159.80, keeping the Yen close to levels that previously triggered Japanese intervention. Japan’s Finance Minister said Tokyo would remain in close contact with G7 peers as Oil-driven market volatility persists, while the 10-year JGB yield climbed to a 27-year high of 2.43%, underscoring the strain from surging energy costs and fiscal support measures.AUD/USD traded around 0.6960, surging even as higher energy prices kept risk-sensitive currencies subdued. The surge came with the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) hawkish tilt from recent weeks still in the background.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil pushed higher toward the $117 per barrel earlier on Tuesday, but folded to $113.40 per barrel by the late afternoon. The broader Oil complex stayed extremely tight as the Hormuz crisis worsened, with some physical crude grades surging toward $150 per barrel and around 12 million barrels per day of supply effectively disrupted.Gold was on a slight bullish bias near $4,680, showing a cautious tone rather than a fresh safe-haven surge. Bullion drew support from geopolitical uncertainty, but upside remained limited by the firm USD and concerns that higher oil prices could keep interest rates elevated for longer. China’s central bank extending its Gold-buying streak to 17 months, helping to underpin the metal.What’s next in the docket:Wednesday, April 8NZ RBNZ Press ConferenceEU Retail SalesEU Non-Monetary Policy ECB MeetingUS FOMC MinutesThursday, April 9Germany Trade BalanceUS PCE Price IndexUS GDPUS Initial Jobless ClaimsUS Personal IncomeUS Personal SpendingNZ Business NZ PMICNY CPICNY PPIFriday, April 10Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer PricesCanadian Employment data US CPIUS Factory OrdersUS Michigan Consumer Index’sUS UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation ExpectationsUS UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation ExpectationUS Monthly Budget Statemen WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

ING’s Maurice van Sante argues that higher Oil and Gas prices, driven by conflict in the Middle East, are set to raise costs in the European building materials sector.

ING’s Maurice van Sante argues that higher Oil and Gas prices, driven by conflict in the Middle East, are set to raise costs in the European building materials sector. He notes that producers’ exposure to Oil and Gas is similar to 2022, so elevated energy prices are likely to be passed through, pressuring margins and construction activity.Energy-driven cost pressures in materials"Many sectors will be impacted by the current surge in energy prices caused by the conflict in the Middle East. As noted previously, producers of building materials such as cement, concrete and bricks rely heavily on energy. If energy prices remain high, these manufacturers are likely to pass increased costs on to construction companies, which will put pressure on profit margins and lead to higher overall building costs.""In the period 2010-2020, the amount of oil as a heating source has decreased substantially in the sector, although it hasn’t witnessed a further decrease in the last five years. Between 2020-2025, companies mainly phased out the use of coal, while the relative amount of used gas has remained more or less the same for the last 15 years. Building material companies have become more sustainable due to the reduced reliance on coal, but the dependency on oil and gas hasn’t really decreased.""The recent uptick in building permits offers a glimmer of hope for stronger demand, but a sustained recovery will depend on greater stability in energy markets and continued innovation in sustainable production methods. Without this, rising production costs risk pushing sales prices higher which, in turn, would weigh on demand. A firm commitment to greener, less energy‑intensive production processes will therefore be essential for long‑term resilience."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday as the Greenback softens amid fragile market sentiment ahead of a deadline set by US President Donald Trump for Iran to reach a deal or reopen the Strait of Hormuz by 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time (00:00 GMT on Wednesday).

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Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 99.80 after failing to sustain gains above the 100 mark.Beyond USD weakness, the Australian Dollar is also supported by strength in the Chinese Yuan (CNY), after the People's Bank of China set the daily reference rate at 6.8854, its strongest level in nearly three years. The AUD is widely seen as a proxy for China’s economy, given Australia’s close trade ties with the country.From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows AUD/USD attempting a modest recovery after finding support above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.6842. The pair is currently testing the 0.6950 level, which previously served as a key support and is now acting as immediate resistance.A break above this area could open the door toward the 0.7000 psychological level, which closely aligns with the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7024.On the downside, immediate support lies near the 100-day SMA. A break below this level on a daily closing basis could open the door toward the 0.6700 psychological level, which marks a previous breakout zone.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recovered toward the 50 level, indicating stabilizing momentum after a prior loss of upside pressure. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line remains slightly below the signal line but is edging higher toward the zero line, suggesting bearish momentum is fading. The MACD histogram is also narrowing, reinforcing the view that downside pressure is easing. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

Austan Goolsbee, President of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago, said that inflation will come roaring back, citing that with Oil prices rising, this is a stagflationary shock to the market in a prepared speech in Detroit on Tuesday.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a} Austan Goolsbee, President of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago, said that inflation will come roaring back, citing that with Oil prices rising, this is a stagflationary shock to the market in a prepared speech in Detroit on Tuesday.Key takeaways:Nothing in Federal Reserve Act says make the stock market happy, or make the president happy.

If actively talking about taking away the independence of the Fed, that's a bad idea.

Inflation would come roaring back.

Oil prices rising is a stagflationary shock.

Now in an uncomfortable situation, no obvious cookbook for Fed.

My immediate concern is stagflationary shock of oil prices before the tariff-price shock has gone away.

Job market stable but not great.

Cautious, nervous about economy.

The longer you go with high inflation, the more it gets ingrained into the economy.

Hopefully impact from oil will prove temporary.

$5/gallon gas will affect the supply chain.

There's anxiety about inflation coming back.

Possibility of stagflationary recession from oil price rise would be the worst outcome.” US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.33% -0.23% 0.05% -0.06% -0.51% 0.01% 0.08% EUR 0.33% 0.10% 0.33% 0.23% -0.19% 0.33% 0.41% GBP 0.23% -0.10% 0.25% 0.15% -0.26% 0.25% 0.33% JPY -0.05% -0.33% -0.25% -0.09% -0.54% -0.03% 0.05% CAD 0.06% -0.23% -0.15% 0.09% -0.45% 0.06% 0.16% AUD 0.51% 0.19% 0.26% 0.54% 0.45% 0.51% 0.61% NZD -0.01% -0.33% -0.25% 0.03% -0.06% -0.51% 0.11% CHF -0.08% -0.41% -0.33% -0.05% -0.16% -0.61% -0.11% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

OCBC strategists Christopher Wong and Sim Moh Siong note that Asian FX, including South Korean Won (KRW), has traded slightly firmer on hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East, but stresses that geopolitics remains the key driver.

OCBC strategists Christopher Wong and Sim Moh Siong note that Asian FX, including South Korean Won (KRW), has traded slightly firmer on hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East, but stresses that geopolitics remains the key driver. They argue that any further relief rally in Asian FX will depend on concrete details around a potential deal on the Strait of Hormuz. Until such clarity emerges, Wong expects most Asian FX to trade sideways.Relief rally hinges on Hormuz clarity"Geopolitics remains the dominant driver, with focus on hopes of de-escalation while President Trump’s threat of escalation acting as a counter. It remains to be seen if it proves to be another ‘pause in follow-through’ moment, but most Asian FX, including KRW traded a touch firmer overnight.""What markets probably need is clarity on the timeline of reopening the Strait of Hormuz and if Iran secures guarantees. If we do get these details in order, then there is a good chance high-beta currencies, including KRW should take the lead in recovery.""Further relief rally is not ruled out if de-escalation wins the day. But the extent of a relief rally will hinge on details of the deal – whether it is a temporary ceasefire or not.""But before we get any details, most Asian FX should trade sideways in the interim."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil trades in a volatile and choppy range on Tuesday as traders remain cautious ahead of a deadline set by US President Donald Trump for Iran to reach a deal.

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At the time of writing, WTI is trading around $104.30, with a geopolitical risk premium embedded in prices amid concerns about supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.Markets remain on edge after US President Donald Trump issued a fresh warning in a Truth Social post, saying, “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will.”This follows an earlier threat from Trump that the United States could target Iran’s energy and civilian infrastructure if no agreement is reached or if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened by 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time (00:00 GMT on Wednesday).Meanwhile, Axios reported on Tuesday that progress has been made over the past 24 hours in negotiations between the US and Iran. However, according to US and Israeli officials as well as other sources familiar with the talks, reaching a ceasefire deal before Trump’s deadline still appears unlikely.Overall, the uncertain outcome of the US-Iran standoff is likely to keep Oil prices supported in the near term unless tensions de-escalate meaningfully.According to the latest Short-Term Energy Outlook from the US Energy Information Administration, global Oil markets are already experiencing significant supply tightness due to the effective disruption of flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles nearly 20% of global oil supply. The report estimates that production shut-ins reached around 7.5 million barrels per day in March and could rise to over 9 million barrels per day in April.The EIA also projects that WTI crude oil prices will average around $87 per barrel in 2026 and expects global oil demand growth to slow, forecasting an increase of around 0.6 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2026, down from 1.2 million b/d in the previous month’s report. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose argues that Turkey’s brief disinflation respite is already obsolete as higher Oil prices and external shocks dominate. Headline CPI slowed in March, but core dynamics remain strong and credibility concerns persist.

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose argues that Turkey’s brief disinflation respite is already obsolete as higher Oil prices and external shocks dominate. Headline CPI slowed in March, but core dynamics remain strong and credibility concerns persist. Rising energy costs, a widening trade deficit, capital outflows and heavy intervention leave the Turkish Lira increasingly vulnerable to a disorderly adjustment if the regional war does not de-escalate soon.Disinflation story eclipsed by energy shock"Turkey’s March CPI print offered a brief moment of relief last Friday, with headline inflation slowing to 30.9%y/y and 1.9%m/m – below most estimates. Yet this downside surprise already looks outdated.""Last and most crucial point: the renewed rise in energy cost points to a reversal ahead – hence, the backward-looking March data are beside the point.""The shift in outlook because of the oil price is not hypothetical: policymakers have been explicit that the oil price shock will feed through materially, with FinMin Mehmet Simsek estimating a 3.6-4.4pps impact on inflation if oil were to stabilise at around US$85/bbl (we think that it will).""The current account situation was worsening since late last year as interest rates were being cut – now the outlook has turned firmly negative.""We think, however, that lira management is increasingly fragile (resulting in noticeable drawdown of resources). If the war were not to de-escalate soon, the probability of a disorderly adjustment would rise materially."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

United States 3-Year Note Auction: 3.897% vs 3.579%

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad anticipates the RBI, NBP, BCRP and BOK will all leave policy rates unchanged at upcoming meetings.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad anticipates the RBI, NBP, BCRP and BOK will all leave policy rates unchanged at upcoming meetings. However, the bank flags asymmetric risks: RBI could turn restrictive, NBP may validate hike expectations, BCRP faces upside inflation risks, and BOK could shift hawkish in its rate projections over the next six months.Asia and EM central banks balance inflation risks"The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is widely expected to keep the policy rate unchanged at 5.25% for a second consecutive meeting (Wednesday). The risk is the RBI shifts its neutral stance to restrictive because of the worsening inflation outlook.""National Bank of Poland (NBP) is widely expected to keep the policy rate unchanged at 3.75% after cutting rates by 25bps at the last March 4 meeting (Thursday). Watch out to see if Governor Adam Glapinski leans into or against rate hike expectations. The swaps curve price-in 60bps of hikes in the next twelve months.""Peru’s central bank (BCRP) is widely expected to keep rates unchanged at 4.25% for a seventh consecutive meeting (Thursday). The risk of a hike cannot be ruled out after both headline and core CPI inflation quickened in March above the bank’s 1 to 3% target range.""Bank of Korea (BOK) is widely expected to keep the policy rate unchanged at 2.50% for a seventh consecutive meeting (Friday). The risk is a hawkish shift in the Monetary Policy Board’s rate projection, with hikes replacing a steady rate outlook over the next six months."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

The Pound Sterling rose by over 0.20% on Tuesday amid speculation of a ceasefire agreement, but newswires revealed that the chances of a deal are far, increasing the likelihood of an US attack as Trump’s deadline approaches. The GBP/USD trades at 1.3241, still above its opening price.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}Sterling rose as ceasefire speculation initially lifted broader market sentiment.Rising oil prices and fading deal hopes kept traders cautious.Weak UK services data reinforced stagflation concerns despite Dollar softness.The Pound Sterling rose by over 0.20% on Tuesday amid speculation of a ceasefire agreement, but newswires revealed that the chances of a deal are far, increasing the likelihood of an US attack as Trump’s deadline approaches. The GBP/USD trades at 1.3241, still above its opening price.Sterling trims gains as Trump deadline nears while deal odds fadeRisk appetite deteriorates amid the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. Oil prices are rising, but the Greenback has failed to gain traction, despite its positive correlation with WTI, as the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the buck's performance against a basket of six currencies, is down 0.14% to 99.84.Earlier, the US attacked Kharg Island, while Iran retaliated on US interests in the UAE, Iraq and Saudi Arabia. Newswires reported that diplomatic talks between the US and Iran were closed, but the Tehran Times denied those allegations, saying that “Diplomatic and indirect channels of talks with the US are not CLOSED.”Data in the US revealed that Durable Goods Orders in February contracted for the second consecutive month, by 1.4%, below estimates for a 0.4% expansion, while core goods exceeded estimates of 0.7%, expanding by 0.8% MoM in the same period.New York Fed President John Williams commented that the energy shock will drive up overall inflation. “I expect headline inflation to actually be elevated, you know, in the middle of this year” and expecto to rise by 2.75% for the year. He added that monetary policy is “where it is needed to be.”The New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations in March indicates that households are becoming pessimistic about higher prices, as inflation expectations for one year rose by 3.4%, up from 3% in February, while for three years, ticked up from 3% to 3.1% and for five years, remained unchanged at 3%.Even though the GBP/USD is ripping higher, business activity in the UK services sector slowed sharply to an 11-month low in March, as the S&P Global Services PMI edged lower from 53.9 to 50.5, while a reading of input prices rose, increasing the chances for a stagflationary scenario in the UK.Given the backdrop, the GBP/USD is trimming some of its earlier gains, while the US Dollar seems to be recovering some ground amid growing speculation that the chances for a deal are low, via MS NOW citing diplomats.GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical OutlookIn the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3245. The near-term bias is mildly bearish as spot holds below the confluence of the descending resistance line from 1.3869 and the clustered simple moving averages around 1.35, confirming a rejection of prior upside attempts. Price continues to oscillate beneath this moving-average band, which caps rallies and aligns with the series of lower highs traced along the downtrend line, indicating sellers retain control despite the longer-standing rising support trend from 1.3035 still underpinning the broader structure.Immediate resistance emerges near 1.3330, where recent highs meet the descending trend line, followed by the 1.3500/1.3530 zone defined by the grouped simple moving averages and prior congestion. A daily close above that upper band would be needed to weaken the bearish tone and reopen the 1.3650 area. On the downside, initial support is seen around 1.3180, with the rising trend line from 1.3035 reinforcing the 1.3100 region as the next downside level. A break below that trend support would signal a deeper decline towards 1.3035 and expose the broader bullish structure to a more decisive reversal.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Pound Sterling Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. British Pound was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.47% -0.43% 0.11% -0.25% -0.87% -0.23% -0.08% EUR 0.47% 0.05% 0.57% 0.22% -0.39% 0.26% 0.37% GBP 0.43% -0.05% 0.44% 0.16% -0.44% 0.19% 0.34% JPY -0.11% -0.57% -0.44% -0.36% -0.96% -0.31% -0.21% CAD 0.25% -0.22% -0.16% 0.36% -0.61% 0.05% 0.17% AUD 0.87% 0.39% 0.44% 0.96% 0.61% 0.64% 0.79% NZD 0.23% -0.26% -0.19% 0.31% -0.05% -0.64% 0.14% CHF 0.08% -0.37% -0.34% 0.21% -0.17% -0.79% -0.14% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) dropped around 380 points, or 0.8%, snapping a four-session winning streak as risk appetite collapsed in the hours before President Trump's self-imposed deadline for Iran to agree to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Dow fell over 380 points as hopes for a US-Iran ceasefire deal faded ahead of President Trump's 00:00 GMT Wednesday deadline.West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures surged above $116 per barrel on reports the US struck Kharg Island overnight.Broadcom bucked the trend, rising 3% after announcing expanded artificial intelligence chip deals with Google and Anthropic.Durable goods orders fell 1.4% in February, though core capital goods orders beat expectations at 0.6% MoM.The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) dropped around 380 points, or 0.8%, snapping a four-session winning streak as risk appetite collapsed in the hours before President Trump's self-imposed deadline for Iran to agree to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The S&P 500 fell 0.9% and the Nasdaq Composite shed 1.3%, with losses accelerating after the New York Times reported that Iran had stopped negotiating a truce with the US. The DJIA opened near session highs above 46,800 before selling off steadily through the afternoon, breaking below its 200-period moving average and settling near 46,300.Iran deadline dominates risk sentimentThe session's price action was dictated almost entirely by geopolitical headlines. Trump set a deadline of 00:00 GMT Wednesday for Iran to strike a deal on reopening the Strait, threatening to destroy the country's power plants and bridges if no agreement was reached. Reports from the Wall Street Journal and NBC News that US forces carried out overnight strikes on Kharg Island, Iran's primary Oil export terminal, only added to the tension. Negotiators told the Journal they were not optimistic a deal could be reached in time, though Iranian state media indicated talks had not been formally closed. Trump's own comments on Truth Social struck an ominous tone but left some ambiguity about whether strikes would proceed immediately after the deadline.Oil surges, Gold holds near $4,700The escalation sent crude prices sharply higher. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures climbed 3% to above $116 per barrel, while international Brent crude advanced above $110. The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly a fifth of global Oil supply, and any prolonged disruption would compound the energy price shock that has weighed on equities since the conflict began in early March. Gold traded in a narrow range near $4,660, holding elevated levels but failing to capitalize on the risk-off mood. Facet chief investment officer Tom Graff told CNBC that while investors should expect Oil prices to stay "significantly higher" than pre-war levels, he views the Strait closure as a negotiating tactic rather than a permanent condition.Broadcom bucks the selloff on AI dealsBroadcom (AVGO) was one of the session's few bright spots, rising 3% after disclosing expanded artificial intelligence partnerships with Google (GOOG) and Anthropic. A regulatory filing revealed a long-term agreement for Broadcom to develop and supply next-generation Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) for Google, along with networking infrastructure through 2031. Separately, Anthropic will access approximately 3.5 gigawatts of TPU-based compute capacity through Broadcom starting in 2027. Anthropic disclosed that its revenue run rate has topped $30 billion, up from $9 billion at the end of 2025, with over 1K business customers now spending more than $1 million annually.Durable goods disappoint on the headline, but core orders surpriseFebruary durable goods data, delayed from its original March release date, came in at -1.4% MoM against expectations of -0.5%, dragged lower by a 5.4% drop in transportation equipment. However, the more closely watched ex-transportation reading came in at +0.8%, well above the 0.5% consensus and marking the eleventh straight month of gains. Core capital goods orders excluding defense and aircraft rose 0.6% MoM, beating the 0.5% estimate and suggesting that business investment spending remains resilient despite the geopolitical uncertainty. The data had minimal market impact given the overwhelming focus on Iran.Heavy data week aheadTraders are bracing for a packed calendar that could reshape the Federal Reserve (Fed) policy outlook. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes land on Wednesday, followed by Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) revisions and February Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) data on Thursday. Friday brings March Consumer Price Index (CPI), which markets will scrutinize for any early signs that the war-driven Oil shock is filtering into broader consumer prices. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) closed near 24, still well below the spike to 60 seen a year ago on tariff liberation day, but elevated enough to suggest hedging demand remains firmly in place. With the Iran deadline now hours away, all eyes are on whether diplomacy produces a last-minute breakthrough or whether the conflict enters a far more dangerous phase.Dow Jones 15-minute chart
Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.

The USD/JPY pair is trading near the 159.95 price region with a strong but volatile tone on Tuesday, as markets react to a sharp escalation in the ongoing conflict between Israel, the United States (US and Iran.

Iran severs all communication with US.Breakdown in diplomacy removes near-term de-escalation scenarios.USD/JPY is likely to stay bid overall but extremely volatile.The USD/JPY pair is trading near the 159.95 price region with a strong but volatile tone on Tuesday, as markets react to a sharp escalation in the ongoing conflict between Israel, the United States (US and Iran.US President Donald Trump intensified his rhetoric via Truth Social, warning of devastating consequences if Iran fails to comply with US demands regarding the Strait of Hormuz. "A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again," Trump threatened on his social media channel. "I don't want that to happen, but it probably will."His messaging hinted at the use of nuclear weapons and reinforced a maximum-pressure stance, with markets interpreting it as a sign that further military escalation is imminent.At the same time, the situation deteriorated further after Iran closed all diplomatic and indirect communication channels with the US, effectively eliminating near-term prospects for negotiation. This breakdown in communication significantly raises the risk of miscalculation and rapid escalation.
Short-term technical analysis:On the 4-hour chart, USD/JPY trades at 159.94. The near-term bias is mildly bullish as the pair holds above both the 20-period and 100-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), with the shorter average turning higher above the longer one. This alignment reinforces a positive tone while price action grinds just beneath the recent highs. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 61 stays above the 50 midline without reaching overbought territory, indicating steady upside momentum rather than stretched conditions.Immediate resistance stands at 159.95, with a sustained break exposing the 160.03 barrier as the next upside level. On the downside, initial support is seen at 159.71, where prior horizontal support converges near the rising 20-period SMA to form a nearby floor. A deeper pullback would target 159.47, which aligns closer to the underlying 100-period SMA and marks a more important level for preserving the current bullish bias.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

The Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of New York's Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) for March showed one-year-ahead inflation expectations jumping to 3.4%, up 0.4 percentage points from February's 3.0% reading.

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That's the largest monthly increase in a year and lands well above the survey's long-run average of 3.34%. Consumers pointed to anticipated rises in gas and food prices as the primary drivers, with the escalation of conflict in the Middle East adding a geopolitical risk premium to everyday cost-of-living expectations. The detail worth watching is the term structure. While the short-end spiked, three-year expectations nudged only slightly higher to 3.1%, and five-year expectations held flat at 3.0%. That divergence matters. If longer-term expectations had moved in lockstep, the Federal Reserve (Fed) would have a much bigger problem on its hands. For now, the data suggests consumers see current price pressures as temporary, war-driven, and not yet embedded in the broader inflation outlook.Still, the timing is uncomfortable for the Fed. The central bank held rates steady at its March meeting and its updated dot plot signaled only one cut for the remainder of 2026, a hawkish shift that markets have taken to heart, with CME FedWatch now pricing in an 89.2% probability of a hold through June, and better-than even odds that the market will see no cuts whatsoever through the remainder of the year. JPMorgan's chief US economist, Michael Feroli, has gone further, forecasting zero cuts this year and a 25-basis-point hike in Q3 2027. A sticky consumer inflation expectations print like today's only reinforces the "higher for longer" narrative and gives policymakers little reason to rush toward easing.Further weight will now be added to this week's upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes, which are slated to release on Wednesday. Investors will be looking for further signs of hawkish tilts within the Fed's internal discussions moving forward. Inflation FAQs What is inflation? Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%. What is the Consumer Price Index (CPI)? The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls. What is the impact of inflation on foreign exchange? Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money. How does inflation influence the price of Gold? Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.

The Euro (EUR) rises against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, as the Greenback softens amid cautious market sentiment ahead of a deadline set by US President Donald Trump for Iran to reach a deal or open the Strait of Hormuz.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD gains as the US Dollar softens ahead of Trump’s Iran ultimatum.Iran suspends diplomatic channels with the US, raising escalation risks.Rising Oil prices fuel inflation concerns, shaping Fed and ECB monetary policy expectationsThe Euro (EUR) rises against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, as the Greenback softens amid cautious market sentiment ahead of a deadline set by US President Donald Trump for Iran to reach a deal or open the Strait of Hormuz.At the time of writing, EUR/USD is trading around 1.1571, extending gains for the second straight day, while the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 99.90 after failing to sustain gains above the 100 mark.Donald Trump has warned that the United States (US) would destroy Iran’s energy and civilian infrastructure if no agreement is reached by 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time (00:00 GMT on Wednesday).As the deadline approaches, Iran’s state-affiliated media outlet Tehran Times reported earlier in the day that Tehran has suspended all diplomatic and indirect lines of communication with the US. Meanwhile, Trump issued a fresh warning in a Truth Social post, saying, “A whole civilisation will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will.”With Oil prices already elevated, any further escalation could deepen the economic fallout. Higher energy costs are fueling inflation and could weigh on economic growth, particularly in the Eurozone, which remains a net energy importer. In contrast, the United States, as a net energy exporter, is relatively better positioned to absorb the shock.Latest preliminary Eurozone data show inflation is accelerating, with the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rising 1.2% MoM in March, up from 0.6% in February, while annual inflation increased to 2.5% from 1.9%.Attention now turns to US inflation data due later this week, where the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise 0.9% MoM, up from 0.3% in February, while annual inflation is seen accelerating to 3.3% from 2.4%.Against this backdrop, markets broadly expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep interest rates on hold, while pricing in up to two rate hikes from the European Central Bank (ECB) by year-end.Central bank messaging also reflects a cautious stance. New York Fed President John Williams said monetary policy is “well-positioned to wait and see,” while noting that the war could add “a tenth or two” to core inflation. Meanwhile, ECB policymaker Pierre Wunsch said the central bank could deliver multiple rate hikes if the Iran crisis persists, according to a report by The Wall Street Journal. Inflation FAQs What is inflation? Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%. What is the Consumer Price Index (CPI)? The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls. What is the impact of inflation on foreign exchange? Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money. How does inflation influence the price of Gold? Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.

MUFG’s Head of Research Derek Halpenny argues that rising Oil and gasoline prices from the Middle East conflict are set to push US inflation higher, with March CPI expected to jump. He highlights a sharp rise in ISM Services prices paid and weakening employment indices.

MUFG’s Head of Research Derek Halpenny argues that rising Oil and gasoline prices from the Middle East conflict are set to push US inflation higher, with March CPI expected to jump. He highlights a sharp rise in ISM Services prices paid and weakening employment indices. While Fed minutes may sound more hawkish, MUFG still anticipates future rate cuts as growth fundamentals remain softer.Conflict-driven price pressures build"The fact that the traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is reportedly picking up may well help to cap the price of crude oil over the short-term (and explain that backwardation) but the inflation and growth risks will continue to increase going forward and this week will provide some insight into the initial inflation impact with the release of the March CPI report on Friday.""The headline MoM CPI rate is expected to pick up from 0.3% in February to 1.0% in March – that would be the biggest gain since June 2022 soon after the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.""The inflation hit from the Middle East conflict will feed through quickly and yesterday’s ISM Services report revealed a sharp jump in the Price Paid index, from 63.0 in February to 70.7 in March, the highest reading since October 2022. The one-month change in the index level was the largest since 2012.""The price of gasoline is one inflation channel where the impact of the conflict is very evident to see. The price increase in the AAA daily gasoline per gallon price in March was 36.2% and the price so far in April has continued to gain each day. The increases have not yet had a notable impact on consumer confidence but that is likely to change over the coming weeks as the inflation impact broadens out, especially if the ISM Services employment index is correctly indicating a downturn in the jobs market.""The minutes from the FOMC meeting in March will also be released this week (Wednesday) and is likely to reveal division over the policy outlook ahead. The median dot for 2026 revealed in March was 3.375% - implying one rate cut this year. But the assumption built into that median dot was very much a weak labour market and hence the danger over the short-term is for the rhetoric to skew more hawkishly following the NFP data last week."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

DBS Group Research’s Eugene Leow notes that Gold has stayed relatively stable despite conflicting geopolitical news, including a potential ceasefire and renewed threats around the Strait of Hormuz.

DBS Group Research’s Eugene Leow notes that Gold has stayed relatively stable despite conflicting geopolitical news, including a potential ceasefire and renewed threats around the Strait of Hormuz. He argues Gold remains in a corrective phase as elevated US real yields near 2% cap recovery potential, and expects range-bound trading around USD 4500-5000 with an upside bias, contingent on geopolitical developments and US Dollar weakness.Corrective phase under yield headwinds"Overnight, gold remained relatively stable despite conflicting geopolitical crosscurrents, balancing reports of a potential 45-day ceasefire against President Trump’s escalating threats to force the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. More broadly, however, the metal remains entrenched in a corrective phase, weighed down by the persistent pressure of elevated US 10-year real yields that continue to hover near the 2% threshold.""With the Middle East conflict yet to see any definitive de-escalation, the immediate outlook suggests a period of range-bound price action with an upside skew.""However, any meaningful breakout remains heavily contingent on further geopolitical shifts.""In the near term, gold is likely to oscillate within the USD 4500-5000.""Until real yields undergo a meaningful retreat or the dollar exhibits sustained weakness, gold's recovery potential will remain structurally constrained."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

TD Securities’ commodity team argues that prolonged disruption in the Persian Gulf and blocked flows through the Strait of Hormuz leave Oil poised for another sharp leg higher.

TD Securities’ commodity team argues that prolonged disruption in the Persian Gulf and blocked flows through the Strait of Hormuz leave Oil poised for another sharp leg higher. They see scope for prices to surge by $50 or more if the war persists, with $90–100 crude likely to prevail well into 2027 even if hostilities end soon.Strait of Hormuz disruption keeps market tight"Meanwhile, crude oil, petroleum products and LNG are likely to benefit from ever-tighter supply-demand conditions, as flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain frozen. A speedy end to the conflict will flip these trends.""The longer than expected conflict and the growing risk of even tighter supply conditions as flows through the Strait of Hurmuz remain blocked, production wanes, and inventories get drained, suggests that the surge in energy prices may not have run its course quite yet.""We can see prices surge another $50 or more if the conflict is not concluded in the coming weeks. Even if the war ended soon, energy prices will stay elevated well into 2027 due to deficits and low inventories, which countries like China and Japan will want to fill as quickly as possible.""As such, $90-100 crude is likely to be reality for the foreseeable future."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday that Iran has cut off direct communications with the United States (US) following President Donald Trump's threat to destroy Iran's whole civilization.

The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday that Iran has cut off direct communications with the United States (US) following President Donald Trump's threat to destroy Iran's whole civilization.According to the news outlet, talks with cease-fire mediators continue but it has become more complicated to make a deal."A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will," Trump posted on Truth Social on Tuesday."However, now that we have complete and total regime change, where different, smarter, and less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen," he added.Market reactionMarkets remain risk-averse in the early American session. At the time of press, the S&P 500 Index was down 0.72% on the day, while the Nasdaq Composite was losing 1.15%.

Kit Juckes at Societe Generale highlights Sweden as the only G10 economy forecast to grow faster than the United States (US) this year, yet notes the Swedish Krona (SEK) is currently the weakest G10 currency.

Kit Juckes at Societe Generale highlights Sweden as the only G10 economy forecast to grow faster than the United States (US) this year, yet notes the Swedish Krona (SEK) is currently the weakest G10 currency. He argues SEK would be a strong buy candidate on a ceasefire, given its favourable growth outlook and recent underperformance against other G10 currencies.Weakest G10 currency despite strong growth"The market expects hikes from ALL the G10 currencies except the Fed, despite the fact that the only G10 economy that is forecast to have stronger growth than the US this year, is Sweden.""In fact, the Swedish Krona is the weakest G10 currency so far this year.""But what currencies should we buy if a ceasefire were announced? The SEK would be a strong candidate, given the growth outlook and the recent weakness."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

New Zealand GDT Price Index fell from previous 0.1% to -3.4%

ING’s Chris Turner expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to leave rates unchanged at 2.25% with no new forecasts and limited guidance, as markets price only modest tightening this year.

ING’s Chris Turner expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to leave rates unchanged at 2.25% with no new forecasts and limited guidance, as markets price only modest tightening this year. With the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) underperforming the Australian Dollar (AUD) due to weaker commodity support, he sees the trend persisting unless the RBNZ delivers a hawkish surprise.RBNZ meeting unlikely to lift New Zealand dollar"The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets to set rates tomorrow. Very little tightening is priced in the first half of the year, with 65bp of hikes priced by the end of the year.""RBNZ Governor Anna Breman has proved quite dovish in her communication so far, and in the absence of any new RBNZ forecasts tomorrow, consensus widely expects unchanged rates at 2.25% and probably little steer on future tightening.""Lacking the industrial commodities offered by Australia, the New Zealand dollar has substantially underperformed the Australian dollar this year. Barring a surprise hawkish shift at tomorrow's RBNZ press conference, this trend may well continue."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Turkey Treasury Cash Balance: -279.58B (March) vs previous -94.42B

Henry Allen at Deutsche Bank says Brent crude Oil above $100 has not triggered a 1970s‑style shock because markets still discount a short conflict and lower prices ahead.

Henry Allen at Deutsche Bank says Brent crude Oil above $100 has not triggered a 1970s‑style shock because markets still discount a short conflict and lower prices ahead. He points to a sharply backwardated futures curve, with 6‑ and 12‑month Brent well below spot, and argues that this limits how aggressively other asset classes price stagflation risk.Backwardation tempers stagflation concerns"Today, markets continue to believe that the conflict will be short, as we can see from the energy futures curve.""First, and arguably most importantly, markets are still pricing in a temporary conflict, and a sharp pullback in oil prices in the months ahead.""In other words, markets aren’t pricing in a sustained oil shock like we saw in 2022 (when 6-month Brent futures did climb above $100/bbl).""So given today’s crisis doesn’t yet meet the severity thresholds of past oil shocks, the more limited market reaction makes sense.""So long as that belief remains the case, and markets don’t expect a sustained stagflationary shock, then it’s no surprise that we haven’t seen the declines experienced in the oil shocks of previous decades."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage reports that Eurozone data and European Central Bank (ECB) commentary point to rising downside risks for the Euro as the Iran war and energy shock weigh on growth and sentiment.

BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage reports that Eurozone data and European Central Bank (ECB) commentary point to rising downside risks for the Euro as the Iran war and energy shock weigh on growth and sentiment. ECB officials Radev and Wunsch warn that the euro-area outlook may be deteriorating and that rate hikes could start as soon as April if second-round inflation effects intensify.Energy shock and weak sentiment hit Euro"The EUR continues to lead underperformance among the major currencies, followed by outflows from other relatively low-yielders such as the JPY, SEK and NZD.""ECB Governing Council member Dimitar Radev warned that the euro-area outlook may be deteriorating more than previously expected, citing rising risks from the Iran war and associated energy shock. He said the likelihood of a more adverse scenario has increased, with heightened uncertainty and stronger transmission of shocks to inflation expectations potentially accelerating price pressures.""Radev cautioned that if the shock begins to feed into wages, margins and expectations, the cost of inaction would rise, making a timely policy response more appropriate. However, he noted it is still too early to determine whether sufficient data will be available for the ECB to take a clear decision at its April meeting.""While the ECB cannot control energy prices directly, Wunsch stressed the need to act to contain spillovers into core inflation, noting policymakers were too slow to respond in 2022. He added that future decisions remain data-dependent, with outcomes hinging on the duration of the crisis and its impact on inflation dynamics.""ECB Governing Council member Pierre Wunsch said the central bank may need to begin raising interest rates as soon as April and potentially continue tightening if the energy shock from the Middle East conflict persists. He highlighted rising risks of second-round effects, with sustained high energy prices feeding into wages and broader inflation, which has already increased to 2.5% in March and could rise further."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

United States RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism (MoM) registered at 42.8, below expectations (48.1) in April

TD Securities commodity strategists see Gold and Silver facing further correction as the Middle East war sustains inflation expectations and delays Fed easing. Elevated opportunity costs and reduced regional capital are near-term headwinds.

TD Securities commodity strategists see Gold and Silver facing further correction as the Middle East war sustains inflation expectations and delays Fed easing. Elevated opportunity costs and reduced regional capital are near-term headwinds. However, once the conflict ends and the Dollar weakens, they project Gold returning above $5,000 in late 2026.War delays cuts, later upside potential"While both gold and silver look good for later in the year, after the war stops, oil prices stabilize, and the market's pricing for Fed rate cuts returns. However, a continued correction is in the cards first as the war goes continues.""A continuation of the Middle East conflict will keep lifting inflation expectations along with higher energy, fertilizer, and chemical prices, making it difficult for the Fed to cut soon. This will keep the opportunity costs to holding precious metals elevated.""The lack of Middle East capital in the gold market is also a downside catalyst. Once the war ends, energy price shocks normalize, rates migrate lower and the dollar weakens, gold is likely to return above $5,000 in the latter part of 2026."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Societe Generale economists report that February Euro area activity and labour market data were slightly disappointing but within normal ranges, with unemployment at 6.2%.

Societe Generale economists report that February Euro area activity and labour market data were slightly disappointing but within normal ranges, with unemployment at 6.2%. German industrial jobs continue to decline and retail sales fell, while French consumer spending weakened mainly on energy and clothing. Nonetheless, they maintain a forecast of low but positive French real GDP growth of 0.1% quarter‑on‑quarter in 1Q.Soft indicators yet no sharp downturn"Finally, activity & labour market data in February were slightly disappointing but well-inside the usual range. Euro area unemployment gained one-tenth to the still very low level (for Europe) of 6.2%. Germany is still shedding industrial jobs at a decent pace (-2.7% yoy) though the unemployment rate is stable at 4.0% and retail sales there declined 0.6% mom.""As for France, real consumer spending on goods surprised to the downside with a 1.4% mom fall. Excluding energy, spending is only down 0.2% in January/February vs 4Q so pointing more to continued stagnation rather than a change of trend for the worst.""Mild temperatures and a change in the timing of sales have played a clear role with energy spending down 2.4% and clothing spending down 4.0%. Excluding energy, spending is only down 0.2% in January/February vs 4Q so pointing more to continued stagnation rather than a change of trend for the worst.""Mild temperatures also led to lower French industrial production in February (-0.7% mom). Manufacturing production was stable but, with the January level revised down 0.4pp, the growth carry-over so far in 1Q is slightly negative. Those data are in line with our forecast of low real GDP growth in France in 1Q (0.1% qoq).""We will also get industrial output for Spain (Thursday) and Italy (Friday). Finally, euro area retail sales (again for February) out Wednesday are unlikely to impress given German and French disappointing results."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a below forecasts (55.9) in March: Actual (49.7)

National Bank of Canada (NBC) economists Stéfane Marion and Kyle Dahms note the Canadian Dollar (CAD) initially outperformed after WTI hit $100, but has since weakened with USD/CAD now seen at 1.41 in Q2 2026.

National Bank of Canada (NBC) economists Stéfane Marion and Kyle Dahms note the Canadian Dollar (CAD) initially outperformed after WTI hit $100, but has since weakened with USD/CAD now seen at 1.41 in Q2 2026. They stress Canada’s strong energy trade surplus and relative insulation from Oil shocks, yet expect only later CAD gains if trade talks improve and Ottawa delivers clearer pro-energy policies.Energy buffer offsets but does not reverse slide"Just a week after the Iran conflict erupted and WTI surged to $100 a barrel, the Canadian dollar stood out as the only reserve currency gaining ground against the U.S. dollar. Despite markets now pricing in close to 50 basis points of Bank of Canada tightening this year, the loonie has since lost momentum, joining the broader depreciation seen across major currencies with a 2.1% decline against the greenback.""Canada is not any less relatively insulated from a global oil supply shock than it was before — if anything, that buffer remains firmly in place. That is why we would not expect speculators to turn as bearish on the CAD as they did at the end of last year, especially given the size of the country’s fossil-fuel trade balance relative to GDP.""This may leave the Canadian economy somewhat more resilient in the months ahead, but not, in our view, enough to warrant Bank of Canada tightening. January GDP did beat consensus expectations (+0.1%), yet only 9 of 20 sectors recorded monthly output gains.""At this stage, we expect somewhat more CAD depreciation through Q2 than previously anticipated, given the prolonged Iran conflict, and now see USD/CAD at 1.41 as markets unwind Bank of Canada tightening expectations. For H2 2026, however, we have not abandoned the prospect of CAD appreciation, provided trade discussions between Washington and Ottawa become more constructive and Ottawa delivers more credible pro-energy and industrial policy support."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

The British Pound (GBP) trades with a mild upside bias against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Tuesday, as elevated Oil prices stemming from the ongoing US-Iran war weigh heavily on Japan’s economic outlook, keeping the Yen on the defensive against most major peers.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}GBP/JPY rises for a second day as elevated Oil prices weigh on the Japanese Yen.Markets stay cautious ahead of Trump’s 20:00 ET deadline for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz.Interest rate divergence between the BoE and BoJ underpins upside in GBP/JPY.The British Pound (GBP) trades with a mild upside bias against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Tuesday, as elevated Oil prices stemming from the ongoing US-Iran war weigh heavily on Japan’s economic outlook, keeping the Yen on the defensive against most major peers.At the time of writing, GBP/JPY is trading around 211.60, hovering near one-week highs.Traders remain cautious ahead of a key deadline set by US President Donald Trump, who warned Iran to “make a deal or open up the Strait of Hormuz” by 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time (00:00 GMT on Wednesday). Trump has threatened to target Iran’s energy and civilian infrastructure if no agreement is reached.As a major net energy importer, Japan is particularly vulnerable to rising Oil prices, which increase the country’s import bill, widen trade deficits, and weigh on the currency. Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama said authorities “will have to respond to the environment surrounding the Japanese economy, considering the Middle East situation,” adding that policymakers are “checking all scenarios, including optimistic and pessimistic ones, in terms of oil stockpiles.”While higher inflation expectations may keep the Bank of Japan (BoJ) on a gradual tightening path, the hit to economic growth from elevated energy costs could limit the pace of further policy normalization.Meanwhile, the UK is also a net energy importer, but its exposure is relatively lower than Japan’s, making the impact of the energy shock less severe.Still, with economic growth already fragile and inflation remaining above the Bank of England (BoE) target, policymakers are expected to keep interest rates higher for longer, with markets pricing in up to two rate hikes by year-end.Against this backdrop, the outlook for GBP/JPY remains tilted to the upside, supported by widening interest rate differentials. However, further gains may be limited, as intervention risks loom with USD/JPY trading close to the 160 level, an area that has previously triggered official action from Japanese authorities. Japanese Yen Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Swiss Franc. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.16% -0.05% 0.06% 0.09% -0.24% 0.24% 0.23% EUR 0.16% 0.11% 0.22% 0.21% -0.10% 0.39% 0.40% GBP 0.05% -0.11% 0.11% 0.11% -0.19% 0.30% 0.30% JPY -0.06% -0.22% -0.11% 0.01% -0.31% 0.17% 0.17% CAD -0.09% -0.21% -0.11% -0.01% -0.32% 0.15% 0.17% AUD 0.24% 0.10% 0.19% 0.31% 0.32% 0.48% 0.50% NZD -0.24% -0.39% -0.30% -0.17% -0.15% -0.48% 0.03% CHF -0.23% -0.40% -0.30% -0.17% -0.17% -0.50% -0.03% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

Nordea analysts Jan von Gerich, Tuuli Koivu and Anders Svendsen now expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to prioritise inflation over growth as the Middle East conflict prolongs and broader price pressures build.

Nordea analysts Jan von Gerich, Tuuli Koivu and Anders Svendsen now expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to prioritise inflation over growth as the Middle East conflict prolongs and broader price pressures build. They forecast four 25bp hikes starting in June, taking the deposit rate to 3% by October and staying there through 2027, with risks skewed towards earlier or larger moves.ECB seen front‑loading inflation response"We expect the ECB to prioritise inflation worries over growth concerns, and now forecast four 25bp rate hikes in total this year.""When combining these elements, we expect in our new baseline that the ECB starts to raise rates by 25bp at the June meeting, and then continue hiking rates in 25bp increments in consecutive meetings four times in total to bring the deposit rate to 3% in October.""We then expect rates to remain at that level for the remainder of our forecast horizon until the end of 2027.""If the ECB was really worried about the price outlook, it could start raising rates as early as at the April meeting or alternatively hike by more than 25bp in June, but we think 25bp remains the most likely initial step for now.""One could simplify the outlook by arguing that while the timing of the first hike depends heavily on the development of the conflict and energy prices, the number and pace of subsequent hikes will depend more on how the broader prices pressures evolve and how well the economy performs amidst the headwinds of higher energy prices, elevated uncertainty and rising rates."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

TD Securities analysts note Swedish CPIF and CPIF ex-Energy inflation for March surprised sharply to the downside, driven mainly by weaker Food and Recreation, Sport & Culture prices, partly offset by petrol.

TD Securities analysts note Swedish CPIF and CPIF ex-Energy inflation for March surprised sharply to the downside, driven mainly by weaker Food and Recreation, Sport & Culture prices, partly offset by petrol. They highlight that the central bank of Sweden, Riksbank had recently leaned hawkish, but argue that unless this weak inflation is quickly reversed, policymakers are likely to remain on hold for longer than previously signaled.Weak CPIF print challenges hawkish stance"Flash inflation for the month of March surprised materially to the downside in Sweden, with CPIF decelerating a tick to 1.6% y/y (mkt: 2.2%), while CPIF ex-Energy dropped 0.3ppt to 1.1% y/y (mkt: 1.5%).""The decline in inflation came principally from lower Food and Recreation, Sport & Culture prices, while petrol prices of course provided an offsetting boost to the headline CPIF measure.""The Riksbank had been leaning in a hawkish direction at its last meeting, but this weak inflation data, if not reversed, might keep them on the sidelines for longer."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

United States Redbook Index (YoY) climbed from previous 6.9% to 7.6% in April 3

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams told Bloomberg on Tuesday that the impact of the Iran war will drive up headline inflation.

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams told Bloomberg on Tuesday that the impact of the Iran war will drive up headline inflation.Key takeaways"Inflation this year should be around 2.75%.""Fed is very focused on underlying inflation.""Story on core inflation hasn't changed very much.""Tariffs remain a big part of the inflation story.""Monetary policy is exactly where it needs to be, can be changed if needed.""Expecting 2% to 2.5% GDP this year with stable unemployment rate.""Labor market situation is pretty complicated.""Job market is low hire, low fire.""Underlying inflation to moderate later this year.""US economy is remarkably resilient, tech broadly is helping productivity levels.""Compensation growing consistent with productivity, not pressuring inflation.""Businesses have been adapting to more uncertain world.""Fed is focused on work, leadership concerns are not an issue."Market reactionThe US Dollar Index stays in the lower half of its tight daily range and was last seen losing 0.07% at 99.92.

Durable Goods Orders in the United States (US) declined 1.4%, or $4.4 billion, to $315.5 billion in February, the US Census Bureau reported on Tuesday. This print followed the 0.5% decline recorded in January and came in worse than the market expectation for a decrease of 0.5%.

US Durable Goods Orders declined more than expected in February.US Dollar Index stays in daily range at around 100.00.Durable Goods Orders in the United States (US) declined 1.4%, or $4.4 billion, to $315.5 billion in February, the US Census Bureau reported on Tuesday. This print followed the 0.5% decline recorded in January and came in worse than the market expectation for a decrease of 0.5%."Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.8 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 1.2 percent," the press release read. "Transportation equipment, also down four of the last five months, drove the decrease, $6.1 billion or 5.4 percent to $106.1 billion."Market reactionThese figures don't seem to be having a noticeable impact on the US Dollar's (USD) performance. At the time of press, the USD Index was marginally lower on the day at 99.92.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to keep the OCR at 2.25%, with Governor Breman set to update growth and inflation projections.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to keep the OCR at 2.25%, with Governor Breman set to update growth and inflation projections. Despite economic slack, elevated inflation and market pricing of nearly 100 bps of tightening limit policy flexibility. Haddad warns a prolonged energy shock and weak terms of trade will keep NZD defensive versus major currencies.Limited RBNZ room leaves NZD vulnerable"The RBNZ is widely expected to leave the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.25% for a second straight meeting (Wednesday). There is no updated Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) associated with this meeting, but Governor Anna Breman flagged an update to the bank’s inflation and growth outlook.""In a speech delivered on March 24, Breman already warned of “somewhat weaker economic growth in 2026” than anticipated in the February MPS and signaled that the bank will look through “a short-lived disruption and a temporary increase in petrol prices.”""The RBNZ has limited room to sidestep tightening despite excess slack in the economy given that headline inflation is already slightly above the 1 to 3% target range and most measures of core inflation are above the target mid‑point. The swaps curve price in nearly 100bps of OCR increases in the next twelve months.""A prolong energy shock will keep NZD trading on the defensive against most major currencies, weighed down by New Zealand’s unfavorable terms of trade dynamic and heightened stagflation risk."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

United States Durable Goods Orders ex Defense declined to -1.2% in February from previous 0.5%

United States Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation above forecasts (0.5%) in February: Actual (0.8%)

United States Durable Goods Orders came in at -1.4% below forecasts (-0.5%) in February

Deutsche Bank’s Henry Allen argues that the S&P 500’s modest pullback versus past Oil shocks reflects markets pricing a short conflict, resilient macro data and still‑dovish central banks.

Deutsche Bank’s Henry Allen argues that the S&P 500’s modest pullback versus past Oil shocks reflects markets pricing a short conflict, resilient macro data and still‑dovish central banks. He notes the index is only 5–6% below record highs and highlights historical episodes, including 1979–80, 1990–91 and 2022, where S&P 500 drawdowns were followed by relatively swift recoveries.Equities hold up versus past oil shocks"For now, risk assets are still holding up much better than in history’s recent oil shocks.""S&P 500 and Europe’s STOXX 600 are “only” 5-6% beneath their record highs.""For example, the US jobs report for March, the first covering the period since the strikes began on Feb 28, had nonfarm payrolls up by +178k, the strongest in 15 months, with unemployment ticking down to 4.3%.""In 1979-80, after the second oil shock, there was market turbulence as Paul Volcker hiked rates aggressively and a US recession took place in early 1980.""Even in 2022, which was a more significant bear market as global central banks hiked rates aggressively, that was followed by a strong recovery in 2023, with the S&P 500 at a new record by early 2024."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Private-sector hiring in the US has added extra momentum in mid-March. According to the NER Pulse, the weekly companion to the ADP National Employment Report, companies added an average of 26K jobs per week in the four weeks ending March 14.

US private employers added an average of 26K jobs per week in mid-March.Job gains gain extra momentum, building on the previous week’s gain.Private-sector hiring in the US has added extra momentum in mid-March. According to the NER Pulse, the weekly companion to the ADP National Employment Report, companies added an average of 26K jobs per week in the four weeks ending March 14.That marks a decent uptick from the prior reading, hinting that the recent improvement in hiring may be picking up pace again.

United States ADP Employment Change 4-week average climbed from previous 10K to 26K in March 14

"A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will," United States (US) President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social on Tuesday.

"A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will," United States (US) President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social on Tuesday."However, now that we have complete and total regime change, where different, smarter, and less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen," he added and continued:"We will find out tonight, one of the most important moments in the long and complex history of the World. 47 years of extortion, corruption, and death, will finally end. God Bless the Great People of Iran!"Market reactionMarkets remain risk-averse in the second half of the day on Tuesday. At the time of press, US stock index futures were down between 0.5% and 0.7%. Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) Index stays flat on the day near 100.00.

Societe Generale’s Kit Juckes discusses Robin Brooks’ view that the Dollar looks significantly overvalued versus G10 rate differentials and could fall sharply on a ceasefire, with Oil tumbling and safe-haven flows reversing.

Societe Generale’s Kit Juckes discusses Robin Brooks’ view that the Dollar looks significantly overvalued versus G10 rate differentials and could fall sharply on a ceasefire, with Oil tumbling and safe-haven flows reversing. Juckes notes markets price no Fed hikes this year while other G10 central banks tighten, and expects a broadly range-bound Dollar if Fed policy stays unchanged.Fed stance and ceasefire risk for Dollar"Robin Brooks, once upon a time the Chief economist at Goldman Sachs, and then at the IIF, posted a chart on Substack showing the dollar against the other G10 currencies, and the 2y/2y forward rate differential. It shows the dollar significantly overvalued relative to rates. He argues that “A ceasefire is coming.""Two things will get repriced quickly when that happens. Oil futures will tumble, and the Dollar will fall sharply” as safe haven inflows into the currency reverse and a politicised Fed cuts policy rates in the face of rising inflation.""As of this morning, the rates market prices Fed Funds unchanged for the rest of this year, while the ECB is priced to raise rates by 70bp. The market expects hikes from ALL the G10 currencies except the Fed, despite the fact that the only G10 economy that is forecast to have stronger growth than the US this year, is Sweden.""IF the Fed really does ease policy significantly at the same time as inflation rises and the Government runs accommodative fiscal policy, the dollar probably will fall. Our Fed call is for rates to be unchanged all year, which is what is currently priced by the rates market and may argue for a rather range-bound dollar from here.""Overall, the market is long USD, albeit not dramatically so. It is also long AUD and short JPY. The EUR long has fallen dramatically from 180 thousand contracts, to 507."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading in a choppy range on Tuesday with markets on edge as the ultimatum from US President Donald Trump to reach a deal with Iran nears its deadline.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold trades broadly stable below $4,700 as uncertainty over a potential deal between US and Iran keeps market sentiment cautious.Traders stay on the sidelines ahead of Trump’s 20:00 ET deadline for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz.XAU/USD forms a bearish flag on the 4-hour chart, with downside risks building below the 100-period SMA.Gold (XAU/USD) is trading in a choppy range on Tuesday with markets on edge as the ultimatum from US President Donald Trump to reach a deal with Iran nears its deadline. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $4,657, with price action lacking clear direction, as traders look for headlines on a potential deal to reach a truce as the deadline quickly approaches.Traders stay cautious ahead of Trump’s deadline on IranTraders are staying on the sidelines ahead of a key deadline later today set by US President Donald Trump, who warned Iran to “make a deal or open up the Strait of Hormuz” by 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time (00:00 GMT on Wednesday). Trump has threatened to target Iran’s energy and civilian infrastructure if no agreement is reached.Initial optimism about a potential ceasefire faded quickly. Iran’s state news agency, the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA), reported on Monday that Tehran rejected a ceasefire proposal conveyed through Pakistan, instead presenting a 10-point plan that includes a permanent end to the war, lifting sanctions, and a formal framework to ensure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump described Iran’s proposals as a “very significant step,” but said they were “not good enough.”Despite the heightened geopolitical risks, Gold has struggled to attract sustained safe-haven demand. This is partly because the US Dollar (USD) remains firm, as global liquidity demand continues to outweigh traditional flows into bullion.Elevated Oil prices force markets to scale back Fed rate cut betsAnother factor weighing on Gold is rising Oil prices, which are adding to inflation concerns and increasing risks to economic growth. This is strengthening expectations that major central banks, especially the Federal Reserve (Fed), will keep interest rates higher for longer. This is likely to show in US inflation data for March due later this week, with economists expecting the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to rise 0.9% MoM, up from 0.3% in February, while annual inflation is seen accelerating to 3.3% from 2.4%.Markets have largely priced out rate cuts for this year, compared to earlier expectations of at least two cuts, which remains a headwind for the non-yielding metal.Strong central bank buying keeps Gold’s broader outlook intactDespite near-term weakness, Gold’s broader outlook remains tilted to the upside. Structural demand continues to support prices, driven by steady central bank purchases, rising sovereign debt levels across major economies, and resilient retail investment demand through exchange-traded funds (ETFs).According to Bloomberg, China’s central bank added about 160,000 troy ounces, or roughly 5 tons, of Gold in March. This marks the 17th straight month of purchases. In addition, global central banks bought a net 25 tons in the first two months of the year, based on estimates from the World Gold Council (WGC).Technical analysis: XAU/USD forms a bearish flag on the 4-hour chartFrom a technical perspective, the 4-hour chart shows XAU/USD forming a bearish flag pattern, with downside risks mounting as prices press against the lower boundary of the pattern.The 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $4,654 continues to act as overhead resistance, with repeated rejections limiting upside attempts. A sustained break above this level could open the door for a move toward the 200-period SMA near $4,908.On the downside, the 50-period SMA around $4,585 is providing some cushion, though a sustained break below this level could open the door for deeper losses toward the $4,400 region, with further downside risk extending to $4,100.Momentum indicators remain mixed, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near the 50 mark, indicating a lack of strong directional bias. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains negative, with the MACD line below its signal line and close to the zero line, suggesting subdued downside pressure rather than strong selling momentum. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage highlights a growing divergence between the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and Australian Dollar (AUD) as markets favor currencies backed by real assets.

BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage highlights a growing divergence between the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and Australian Dollar (AUD) as markets favor currencies backed by real assets. Despite strong New Zealand commodity prices, NZD is seeing little flow support, while AUD benefits from terms-of-trade gains and reduced hedging. Savage notes that if AUD/NZD divergence feeds into spot, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may need to respond via interest rates.Flows favor AUD over struggling NZD"In theory, the NZD should be able to benefit from any gains in soft commodities, but there is very little sign of this in our flows. Energy and fuel inputs will affect balance of payments as well, and NZD certainly does not have the underlying nominal or real rates that are a necessary condition for inflows.""If anything, there will be fears that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will not be able to move sufficiently with inflation risk, which was already in place before recent events. The markets show little interest for NZD for now, but the opposite is true for AUD.""These are two very slow-moving currencies in holdings terms (cross-border basis), but we have seen a change from broad convergence at the beginning of February to a spread of 40pp, measured by their current holdings as a percentage of their rolling 12-month averages.""The AUD/NZD is material for New Zealand’s trade-weighted indices, and any large moves could impact the outlook for tradables inflation.""Asset owners have materially reduced AUD hedges while adding NZD equivalents. The difference in policy rhetoric is sufficient to drive the change, while Australia also stands to benefit far more from the hard/soft commodity-based positive terms-of-trade shock.""It seems that markets only have interest in adding to one of the two in exposures, and the choice was clear on multiple levels. If the divergence starts to translate into meaningful spot moves, the RBNZ may also need to look at a response through rates. "(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Silver (XAG/USD) is showing a mild bearish momentum on Tuesday’s European trading session, with the reversal from Monday's high, at 81.13, extending to levels below $72.00, amid vanishing hopes of a peace deal in Iran.

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The US Dollar remains steady as the ultimatum on Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz expires in a few hours.The US and Iran rejected the peace plan submitted by Pakistan on Monday, while Iran's alternative proposal was considered “significant” but not enough by US President Donald Trump. The deadline for Iran to reopen the critical waterway expires on Tuesday at 8 PM, and Trump has threatened to “demolish” the country in one night unless a last-minute breakthrough is reached.Technical AnalysisXAG/USD shows a mildly bearish near-term bias after failing to sustain recent highs. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) has pulled back below the 50 line, suggesting fading upside pressure. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator holds in negative territory with a slightly negative histogram, reinforcing waning bullish momentum.On the downside, Monday's low, at the $68.30 area, might provide support ahead of the March 26 low, near $66.70. Further down, the 2026 low, at the $61.400 area, will come into the bears' focusTo the upside, the 38.6% Fionacci retracement of the late March sell-off, at the $75.00 area, keeps holding bulls. Further up, the pair might find sellers at the area between the March 17 high, at the $82.55 area, and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the aforementioned cycle, at $83.35.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) surrenders its early gains against the US Dollar (USD) and flattens around 1.3240 during the European trading session on Tuesday.

.fxs-related-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-related-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{text-decoration:none;color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover a{color:#e4871b}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover{text-decoration:none}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-related-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}}The Pound Sterling gives up its early gains against the US Dollar as the market mood turns risk-off.Iran rejects the US temporary ceasefire proposal and wants a permanent one.Investors await US President Trump’s response after the Tuesday deadline.The Pound Sterling (GBP) surrenders its early gains against the US Dollar (USD) and flattens around 1.3240 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The GBP/USD pair falls back as the market sentiment turns risk-averse, following Iran’s denial of a temporary ceasefire to the United States (US).During the press time, S&P 500 futures trade 0.35% lower below 6,600, reflecting a risk-off market mood. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, claws back its losses and flattens around 100.00.In the European trade, a senior Iranian official stated that Tehran rejects temporary ceasefire, and wants a permanent one in return of the Strait of Hormuz reopening along with the guarantee of no repetitive aggression, and compensation for damages.Meanwhile, investors await US President Donald Trump’s response to Iran’s denial of Hormuz reopening ahead of his proposed deadline, which is Tuesday, 08:00 PM ET.Over the weekend, US President Trump warned of obliterating Iranian civilian infrastructure if it doesn’t reopen the Strait of Hormuz. On Monday, Trump stated that Iran should consider this as the “final deadline”, and reiterated threats of attacking its power plants and bridges.On the monetary policy front, investors await Federal Reserve (Fed) Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the March policy meeting, which will be released on Wednesday. In the policy meeting, the Fed left interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.50%-3.75% and stated that the policy is not based on a preset approach.  Related news Iran rejects US temporary ceasefire proposal - Reuters US Dollar Index gathers strength above 100.00 on heightened uncertainty in the Middle East Trump’s deadline nears, increasing market uncertainty

Citing an unidentified senior US official, Axios reported on Tuesday that the US military conducted strikes on military targets located on Iran's Kharg Island.

Citing an unidentified senior US official, Axios reported on Tuesday that the US military conducted strikes on military targets located on Iran's Kharg Island.Iran's semi-official Mehr News Agency also reported that Kharg island was targeted with several strikes.Meanwhile, Iran's Revolutionary Guard sent a warning to neighbouring countries, noting that the 'restraint is over' and that they will start targeting the US' and partners' infrastructure and threatened to disrupt regional oil and gas supplies for years.Market reactionMarkets turn risk-averse on these developments. At the time of press, US stock index futures were down between 0.4% and 0.6% on the day.

ING analysts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson report that Aluminium supply risks have intensified after Iranian attacks on Emirates Global Aluminium’s Al Taweelah smelter and Aluminium Bahrain’s plant.

ING analysts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson report that Aluminium supply risks have intensified after Iranian attacks on Emirates Global Aluminium’s Al Taweelah smelter and Aluminium Bahrain’s plant. They stress that prolonged outages could remove a large share of Middle East capacity, lifting the regional deficit, while LME Aluminium prices have already risen over 10% as markets price in sustained tightness rather than brief disruptions.Regional outages drive supply deficit"Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA), the Middle East’s largest aluminium producer, said a full resumption of production at its Al Taweelah smelter could take up to 12 months after it was hit in an Iranian attack at the end of last week.""A halt at EGA’s 1.6 mtpa Al Taweelah smelter, Alba’s reduced operations and earlier curtailments at Qatalum would take around 3 mtpa of capacity offline – close to half of Middle East aluminium production, lifting our supply deficit to around 2-2.5 Mt.""Against this backdrop, LME aluminium prices are up more than 10% since the start of the Iran war, reflecting a rising geopolitical risk premium and growing concern that Middle Eastern disruptions could translate into sustained tightness rather than short-lived supply shocks."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Commerzbank analysts highlight that Brent has climbed above $111 per barrel as the Iran conflict continues and Trump links any ceasefire deal to free Oil traffic through the Strait of Hormus.

Commerzbank analysts highlight that Brent has climbed above $111 per barrel as the Iran conflict continues and Trump links any ceasefire deal to free Oil traffic through the Strait of Hormus. The IEA warns against fuel hoarding during the Iran war, while OPEC+ agrees a modest quota hike for May and voices concern over attacks on energy infrastructure.Iran conflict and OPEC+ keep Brent elevated"Today, focus looks set to remain firmly on developments in the Middle East. While attacks have continued over the weekend, latest sources reports about a last minute ceasefire proposal and Trump's extension of a deadline to Tuesday night offer a glimmer of hope. So far, Iran has rejected a ceasefire. Meanwhile, Brent futures have risen considerably over the weekend, with oil now trading above $111/bbl.""Trump shifts deadline from today to Tuesday 8pm E.T., threatens to strike key infrastructure by midnight if no deal is made. Says the entire country "can be taken out in one night". Trump says that free oil traffic through Strait of Hormus must be part of any deal.""IEA warns countries against hoarding fuel during Iran war (FT). OPEC+ agrees 206K b/d quota hike for May, expresses concern over attacks on energy infrastructure."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

TD Securities analysts highlight a record monthly rise in the Melbourne Institute Inflation Gauge, pushing headline and trimmed mean inflation to their highest non-COVID levels since 2008. At the same time, Australian household spending growth is modest and momentum is slowing.

TD Securities analysts highlight a record monthly rise in the Melbourne Institute Inflation Gauge, pushing headline and trimmed mean inflation to their highest non-COVID levels since 2008. At the same time, Australian household spending growth is modest and momentum is slowing. They warn that higher Oil prices after the US‑Iran war breakout skew spending risks to the downside in coming months.Inflation spikes as spending momentum slows"In a sign of what's to come, the headline inflation gauge rose 1.3% m/m, the largest monthly rise recorded in the series' history, to 4.3% y/y.""The annual print is the highest since Sep 2008 if we exclude the COVID period.""Meanwhile, the trimmed mean measure rose 0.4% m/m, with the annual core measure rising 4.4%.""Removing the COVID period, this is the highest annual trimmed mean print since July 2008.""Household spending rose 0.3% m/m in Feb (+0.3% m/m in Jan), to +4.6% y/y. ""The momentum indicators show growth in spending slowing in recent months and the risks are skewed to the downside over coming months following the sharp rise in oil prices following the breakout in the US-Iran war."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that a prolonged energy shock from the Iran conflict heightens financial stability risks and supports the Dollar beyond what rate differentials imply.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that a prolonged energy shock from the Iran conflict heightens financial stability risks and supports the Dollar beyond what rate differentials imply. With Brent still below US$120 and global risk assets stalling, BBH sees USD strength near term but maintains a cyclically neutral and structurally bearish stance on the Dollar longer term.Energy shock underpins near term Dollar"US-Iran ceasefire odds were pared back after both countries rejected each other’s proposal to end the war yesterday. Brent crude oil prices rebounded but remain roughly 6% below the triple top at US$120 a barrel. The recovery in global stocks and bonds stalled, while the dollar index (DXY) is consolidating just above the top-end of its multi-month 96.00-100.00 range.""Financial markets are on edge ahead of today’s deadline. President Donald Trump threatened further strikes on Iranian energy plant and bridge if Iran failed to make a deal and reopen the Strait of Hormuz by 8:00pm Eastern time on Tuesday. Trump added it was “highly unlikely” that he would extend his new deadline.""Unfortunately, the balance of risks points to a prolong energy shock. Iran has both the capability and the incentive to destabilize global markets and impose as much economic/political pain on the US to extract maximum concessions from its five conditions for ending the war: (i) Immediate cessation of aggression and targeted attacks, (ii) Ensuring the war will not recur, (iii) Payment of war damages and reparations, (iv) Ending of hostilities across all fronts, and (v) recognition of Iran’s sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.""A more persistent energy shock raises financial stability risks because it traps central banks in restrictive policy despite unimpressive growth and puts government debt on a more fragile and unsustainable path. As such, USD can continue to overshoot the level implied by rate differentials. Dollar funding needs tend to rise in periods of financial market stress due to the dollar’s dominant role in the global financial system (trade invoicing, cross border lending, global bond issuance, FX reserves).""Beyond the near-term, we remain cyclically neutral on USD and structurally bearish."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Gold price (XAU/USD) trades higher to near $4,675.00, but is broadly sideways, during the European trading session on Tuesday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold price rises to near $4,675 ahead of Trump’s final deadline on Iran.Iran denies accepting a temporary ceasefire in return for the reopening of Hormuz.Tehran wants permanent peace and fees for ships passing through the Hormuz.Gold price (XAU/USD) trades higher to near $4,675.00, but is broadly sideways, during the European trading session on Tuesday. The yellow metal struggles for direction as investors remain cautious about how the Middle East war will flare after the completion of United States (US) President Donald Trump’s final deadline.On Monday, US President Trump stated that Tuesday’s deadline is the final one and Iran “can be taken out in one night, and that might be tomorrow night”, if it doesn’t reopen the Strait of Hormuz.Over the weekend, President Donald Trump announced, through a post on Truth.Social, Iran’s civilian infrastructure would be obliterated if it does not reopen the Hormuz before Tuesday, 08:00 PM ET.Ahead of Trump’s final deadline, Iran has stated that it won’t accept a temporary ceasefire. Tehran has demanded permanent peace, the guarantee of no repetitive aggression, and compensation for damages. It has also demanded recognition of Iran’s authority on the Strait of Hormuz.Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) has recovered its early losses, following Tehran’s denial of the US temporary ceasefire. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, turns flat around 100.00.Going forward, investors will focus on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March, which will be released on Wednesday and Friday, respectively.Gold technical analysisXAU/USD trades marginally higher at around $4,675.00 at the press time. The near-term bias stays neutral with a mild bearish tilt as price holds below the declining 20-day Exponential Moving Average, which caps recovery attempts around the $4,720 area. The recent sequence of lower closes from above $5,300 into the current region underscores persistent downside pressure, even as selling momentum cools. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 45 remains below the 50 midline, indicating subdued bullish conviction and keeping focus on whether buyers can regain traction above the short-term average.Initial resistance emerges at the 20-day EMA near $4,720, followed by the recent rebound high around $4,800, where a sustained break would open the way toward the $4,870 region as a stronger upside target. On the downside, immediate support is located at the April 2 low of $4,554, with a breakdown exposing the next bearish objective at $4,490 and then the $4,410 area. A daily close back above $4,720 would ease downside pressure, while a move below $4,650 would confirm continuation of the broader corrective phase.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) is trading higher against the US Dollar (USD) for the second consecutive day on Tuesday, but the pair failed to find any significant acceptance above 0.6950.

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The AUD, so far, holds gains above 0.6930, yet with upside attempts limited amid cautious markets as the US ultimatum on Iran enters critical hours.US President Donald Trump ramped up its threats to the Islamic Republic, affirming that the US army can take a country in one night and that that night might be tonight. Tuesday, 8 PM (00.00 GMT on Wednesday) is the latest deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.On Monday, Iran and the US rejected a plan for a 45-day ceasefire submitted by Pakistan, and Tehran came out with a 10-point roadmap for a steady peace agreement. Trump described those ideas as “significant,” but said they are not enough.Australian inflation surges in MarchEarlier on the day, Australia’s TM-MI Inflation Gauge posted its sharpest monthly advance in history, with a 1.3% gain in March, following a 0.2% decline in February. Likewise, the yearly rate accelerated to 4.3%, its highest level in more than two years, from February’s 3.6%.These figures reflect the inflationary pressures stemming from higher energy prices amid the war in Iran, and add pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to keep tightening its monetary policy.In the US, the Durable Goods orders data from February, due later on Tuesday, predates the war on Iran and therefore is likely to have a limited impact on the USD. The highlight of the week will be Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) minutes to assess the calendar for the Fed’s next rate hike. Economic Indicator TD-MI Inflation Gauge (MoM) The TD-MI inflation gauge, released by Melbourne Institute, is designed to provide a timely and accurate monthly measure of inflation in Australia. Based on the Australian Bureau of Statistics methodology for calculating the quarterly consumer price index, the Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge estimates month-to-month price movements for a wide-ranging basket of goods and services across the main capital cities of Australia. The MoM figure compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the previous month. The higher the inflation, the stronger the effect it will have on the probability of an interest-rate hike by the RBA. Generally speaking, a high reading should be taken as positive, or bullish, for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish. Read more. Last release: Tue Apr 07, 2026 01:00 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 1.3% Consensus: - Previous: -0.2% Source: Melbourne Institute Economic Indicator TD-MI Inflation Gauge (YoY) The TD-MI inflation gauge, released by Melbourne Institute, is designed to provide a timely and accurate monthly measure of inflation in Australia. Based on the Australian Bureau of Statistics methodology for calculating the quarterly consumer price index, the Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge estimates month-to-month price movements for a wide-ranging basket of goods and services across the main capital cities of Australia. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. The higher the inflation, the stronger the effect it will have on the probability of an interest-rate hike by the RBA. Generally speaking, a high reading should be taken as positive, or bullish, for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish. Read more. Last release: Tue Apr 07, 2026 01:00 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 4.3% Consensus: - Previous: 3.6% Source: Melbourne Institute

According to a Reuters report, a senior Iranian official has rejected a temporary ceasefire called in the two-tier deal by the United States, which was delivered by Pakistan.

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Tehran has set preconditions for talks with US on 'a lasting peace'.

Preconditions include an immediate halt to strikes, guarantees strikes will not be repeated, compensation for damages.

Under a permanent peace deal, Tehran demands fees for ships passing through Hormuz strait.

Fees would vary depending on type of ship, its cargo, prevailing conditions. Risk sentiment FAQs What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets? In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.

The Euro (EUR) extends losses against the British Pound (GBP) for the second consecutive day on Tuesday, approaching the bottom of its near-term horizontal range at 0.8700, from Monday’s highs at 0.8735.

.fxs-event-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-event-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-event-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:12px}.fxs-event-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-event-module-header{color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px;margin:0;padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;padding-right:32px}.fxs-event-module-header label{cursor:pointer;display:block}.fxs-event-module-header label:after,.fxs-event-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:17.6px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:20.8px;margin:4px 0 0 0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Euro maintains a moderate near-term bias, with bears looking at the 0.8700 area.Eurozone's services activity for March has been revised up, yet at levels well below February's.UK services sector grew at its slowest pace of the last 11 months in March.The Euro (EUR) extends losses against the British Pound (GBP) for the second consecutive day on Tuesday, approaching the bottom of its near-term horizontal range at 0.8700, from Monday’s highs at 0.8735.The pair has been unfazed by the moderate upward revision of the Eurozone's HCOB Services Purchasing Managers’ Index figures, which were revised up on Tuesday.Mixed Eurozone services dataBusiness activity in the countries sharing the Euro expanded at a 50.2 pace, according to final estimations, an inch higher than the 50.1 preliminary reading but well below the 51.9 reading seen in February.Spain’s services sector has been the main driver of the revision, with business activity rising to 53.3 from Flash estimates of 51.9. The numbers for the region’s stronger economies, however, have disappointed, as France's sector contracted for the third consecutive month and Germany’s expansion was revised down to 50.9 from 51.2 preliminary estimation and 53.5 in February.In the UK, the S&P Global Services PMI has also been revised down to 50.5 in March, its slowest growing pace in almost a year, from flash estimations of a 51.0 reading and 53.9 in February.These figures reflect the strong economic impact of the war in Iran on the Eurozone and UK economies, the day when US President Donald Trump’s deadline on Tehran expires. Investors are holding their breath after Trump threatened to “demolish” Iran’s bridges and energy plants, refusing claims against war crimes. Economic Indicator HCOB Services PMI The Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB), is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the Eurozone services sector. As the services sector dominates a large part of the economy, the Services PMI is an important indicator gauging the state of overall economic conditions. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at private-sector companies from the services sector. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the services economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Euro (EUR). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity among services providers is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for EUR. Read more. Last release: Tue Apr 07, 2026 08:00 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 50.2 Consensus: 50.1 Previous: 50.1 Source: S&P Global Economic Indicator S&P Global Services PMI The Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by S&P Global, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the UK’s services sector. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the services economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Pound Sterling (GBP). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity among service providers is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for GBP. Read more. Last release: Tue Apr 07, 2026 08:30 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 50.5 Consensus: 51.2 Previous: 51.2 Source: S&P Global

National Bank of Canada (NBC) economists Stéfane Marion and Kyle Dahms describe recent Euro (EUR) weakness versus Dollar (USD) after the Iran conflict and energy shock, but keep a recovery bias for EUR/USD.

National Bank of Canada (NBC) economists Stéfane Marion and Kyle Dahms describe recent Euro (EUR) weakness versus Dollar (USD) after the Iran conflict and energy shock, but keep a recovery bias for EUR/USD. They see market pricing for more than two European Central Bank (ECB) hikes in 2026 as excessive, expecting the ECB to stay on hold while EUR/USD gradually recovers toward 1.18–1.20 if Middle East tensions and Oil prices normalize.Energy shock and ECB repricing shape outlook"The euro ended March at the 1.15 level, having lost more than 2% against the dollar over the month, its worst monthly performance in nearly a year. After peaking near 1.16 in early April on news that the US may wind down its military campaign in Iran, the pair has retreated as the U.S. administration has offered no clear timeline for resolution, leaving the currency trapped between fragile hope and persistent risk. Our revised quarterly path reflects this with a potential bottoming out at 1.13 in Q2, recovering to 1.18 in Q4, conditional on a meaningful easing of hostilities.""Markets have moved aggressively on this signal, now pricing a little more than two hikes in 2026, up from zero before the conflict. We believe this shift in pricing is overdone. The ECB faces a bind: tightening into a supply shock that is already compressing real incomes and dampening confidence risks doing more harm than good.""We maintain a recovery bias over the balance of the year, anchored by the view that the Hormuz disruption is ultimately temporary and that the ECB will resist the temptation to tighten into weakness. The distribution of risks, however, has widened considerably. A swift de-escalation supports a faster return toward 1.18–1.20; a blockade that persists through the summer refill season, precisely when Europe needs to rebuild storage, would put the entire recovery path in question and could even see the pair surpass the mid-March lows."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Japan’s Finance Minister (FM) Satsuki Katayama said during European trading hours on Tuesday that the administration remains focused on mitigating risks to the Japanese economy in the wake of the Middle East war.

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Have gained IMF understanding for our budget.

Will have to respond to environments surrounding Japanese economy in light of Middle East situation.

PM Sanae Takaichi will speak with one of oil producing countries today.

Too premature to talk about cost estimates as it remains uncertain how long the Middle East situation will last, when asked about extra budget. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note USD/JPY traded quietly between 159.28 and 159.82, closing at 159.68, with a firm underlying tone.

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note USD/JPY traded quietly between 159.28 and 159.82, closing at 159.68, with a firm underlying tone. The pair is expected to hold a slightly higher intraday range of 159.40–159.95 and a broader 158.80–160.45 band over the next one to three weeks. Longer term, there is scope to rise above 159.45, though the 162.00 high should cap gains.Dollar-Yen holds firm in upper band"The underlying tone still appears to be firm, but this is likely to lead to USD trading in a higher range of 159.40/159.95 instead of a sustained advance.""As highlighted, the outlook for USD is mixed after the recent sharp but short-lived swings, and USD could trade in a range between 158.80 and 160.45.""There is a chance for USD/JPY to rise above 159.45; based on the lackluster upward momentum, any further advance is unlikely to threaten the 2024 high of 162.00."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Societe Generale economists describe a quiet week in the UK, with Gilt yields easing as markets trimmed Bank of England (BoE) hike expectations after Governor Bailey pushed back on tightening.

Societe Generale economists describe a quiet week in the UK, with Gilt yields easing as markets trimmed Bank of England (BoE) hike expectations after Governor Bailey pushed back on tightening. Survey data show higher CPI expectations but stable wage expectations, suggesting limited second‑round effects. However, falling real household incomes and the energy shock are expected to worsen consumption trends into 2027.Rates repricing and real income squeeze"Last week in the UK, it was a fairly quiet period. Gilt yields eased from 5% to 4.8%, driven largely by a repricing of rate hike expectations this year. Most of this repricing occurred before Andrew Bailey forcefully pushed back against market expectations of a rate hike this year, echoing our view that slack in the economy should limit second‑round effects.""On the data front, the Decision Maker Panel, which ran from 6 to 20 March, recorded a 0.5pp rise in single‑month year‑ahead CPI expectations to 3.5% yoy, a 27‑month high. However, year‑ahead wage expectations eased slightly by 0.1pp to 3.5%. This may suggest firms believe second‑round effects from the current energy shock may be limited, although it more likely reflects laggy data.""Lastly, the final 4Q25 GDP release showed real household disposable incomes continued to decline, falling by 0.4% yoy vs 0.3% yoy in 3Q25. This trend is likely to worsen and weigh on consumption due to the energy shock, since around 40% of annual pay deals are set in April and were likely concluded prior to the Iran war, while energy‑related inflation will erode nominal wage growth until the 2027 settlements.""This week in the UK is another quiet one.The March construction PMI is likely to follow the composite lower, as orders soften on the back of a confidence slump triggered by the energy shock.""Similarly, the March RICS housing survey is likely to show a deterioration in sales expectations, as numerous mortgage deals have been withdrawn and two-and five-year interest rate swaps, which underpin mortgage pricing, have risen by roughly 50bp to their highest levels since December 2024.""Meanwhile, the BoE’s Credit Conditions Survey was likely conducted prior to the shock and is therefore likely to present a relatively positive picture of borrowing conditions."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

EUR/CAD gains ground as the Euro (EUR) receives support from the hawkish tone of the European Central Bank (ECB). The currency cross is trading around 1.6100 during the European hours on Tuesday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/CAD advances as the Euro strengthens on a hawkish ECB stance.ECB’s Lagarde reiterated that policy will stay restrictive until inflation durably returns to the 2% target.The commodity-linked CAD weakens as WTI crude oil erases its intraday gains.EUR/CAD gains ground as the Euro (EUR) receives support from the hawkish tone of the European Central Bank (ECB). The currency cross is trading around 1.6100 during the European hours on Tuesday. European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde stressed that monetary policy will remain restrictive until inflation returns sustainably to the 2% target.Germany’s S&P Global and HCOB Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) slipped to a three-month low of 51.9 in March from 53.2 in February, with the slowdown driven entirely by the services sector. The Services PMI fell to 50.9 in March from 53.5 previously.Phil Smith, Economics Associate Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, stated that the Middle East conflict has dampened growth in the services sector. Smith noted that higher fuel prices and elevated uncertainty have weighed on spending, causing business activity growth to slow sharply to its weakest level in seven months in March.Market participants will look for further direction from upcoming Eurozone Retail Sales and German inflation data later this week, which could provide additional insight into the ECB’s interest rate outlook for the year.The EUR/CAD cross receives support as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) struggles, as the WTI price has lost its daily gains. It is worth noting that Canada is the largest crude oil exporter to the United States (US). West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price trades around $103.00 per barrel at the time of writing.Traders prepared for US President Donald Trump’s approaching deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Trump had earlier warned that he could strike Iranian power plants and bridges if his demands are not fulfilled by 8:00 PM Eastern Time on Tuesday. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Tuesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $72.88 per troy ounce, up 0.12% from the $72.79 it cost on Monday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Tuesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $72.88 per troy ounce, up 0.12% from the $72.79 it cost on Monday.Silver prices have increased by 2.52% since the beginning of the year.Unit measureSilver Price Today in USDTroy Ounce72.881 Gram2.34The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 64.29 on Tuesday, up from 63.87 on Monday. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

DBS Group Research’s Philip Wee expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to keep policy on hold at its April 8 meeting, looking through energy-driven inflation. He notes Governor Anna Breman’s conditional hawkishness if inflation expectations de-anchor.

DBS Group Research’s Philip Wee expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to keep policy on hold at its April 8 meeting, looking through energy-driven inflation. He notes Governor Anna Breman’s conditional hawkishness if inflation expectations de-anchor. Wee highlights that NZD/USD has already retraced most of its prior rally and may find technical support near 0.5630 along a trendline.RBNZ caution and key FX support"The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will adopt a wait-and-see stance at its April 8 meeting.""Governor Anna Breman and Chief Economist Paul Conway will look through the energy-driven headline inflation spike. By holding the official cash rate steady at 2.25%, the RBNZ aims to support a soft landing while avoiding a premature tightening that could risk a return to recession.""However, Breman has also signalled a readiness to hike rates should the oil disruptions threaten to de-anchor inflation expectations, i.e., push core inflation and wage growth above the 1-3% target band.""If Breman reaffirms this hawkish stance, NZD/USD may find support near 0.5630, along a trendline, after retracing more than 75% of its November-January rally from 0.56 to 0.61."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Spain 6-Month Letras Auction up to 2.362% from previous 2.059%

ING analysts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson highlight that central banks have resumed strong Gold buying, with February net purchases led by Poland and continued accumulation by China, Czech Republic and others.

ING analysts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson highlight that central banks have resumed strong Gold buying, with February net purchases led by Poland and continued accumulation by China, Czech Republic and others. They argue that this steady official-sector demand, alongside geopolitical uncertainty and reserve diversification needs, should help underpin Gold prices and limit downside during periods of market volatility despite softer investor flows.Official buying and diversification theme"In precious metals, central banks stepped up gold purchases in February, rebounding after a lull in January, according to monthly data from the World Gold Council.""The trend of sustained accumulation remained intact across several central banks.""This could help underpin prices during periods of volatility and limit downside at a time when investor flows soften.""This backdrop remains supportive for gold amid elevated geopolitical uncertainty and ongoing concerns over reserve diversification."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Singapore Foreign Reserves (MoM) climbed from previous 416.1B to 419.2B in March

Commerzbank’s Chief Economist Dr. Jörg Krämer argues that the European Central Bank should respond to the recent Oil price shock by prioritizing long-term inflation expectations. He notes that higher energy costs are both lifting inflation and weighing on growth, creating a policy dilemma.

Commerzbank’s Chief Economist Dr. Jörg Krämer argues that the European Central Bank should respond to the recent Oil price shock by prioritizing long-term inflation expectations. He notes that higher energy costs are both lifting inflation and weighing on growth, creating a policy dilemma. Krämer concludes that if expectations drift above 2%, the ECB should raise rates, potentially as early as its late-April meeting.Oil shock complicates ECB policy choices"The ECB faces a difficult decision due to the oil price shock. The sharp rise in inflation would, in itself, suggests raising policy rates to bring the inflation rate back down to the 2% target. However, the higher oil price is simultaneously dampening economic activity, which will later bring inflation back to target and, in itself, argues for keeping interest rates unchanged.""To make the right decision in this difficult situation, the ECB should focus on the long-term inflation expectations of citizens and businesses, which can be estimated from financial market data and surveys. If people expect the ECB to achieve its inflation target of 2% in the longer term, the ECB does not need to raise its key policy rates.""However, if inflation expectations rise significantly above 2%, they become a self-fulfilling prophecy. For example, if unions anticipate high inflation in the coming years, they will demand higher wage increases today and drive inflation upward.""If long-term inflation expectations rise, the ECB should act quickly and raise its policy rates. This weakens the economy and thus the bargaining position of workers and the pricing power of companies; they do not trigger a wage-price spiral.""If the ECB does not raise its rates despite rising long-term inflation expectations, it will have to raise them even more sharply later on. For example, the U.S. Federal Reserve had to raise its interest rates to nearly 20% in the early 1980s to curb inflation that had spiraled out of control in the 1970s."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Spain 12-Month Letras Auction rose from previous 2.121% to 2.611%

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad highlights a busy US data calendar for the Dollar, with February PCE, March CPI and the University of Michigan survey guiding inflation expectations.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad highlights a busy US data calendar for the Dollar, with February PCE, March CPI and the University of Michigan survey guiding inflation expectations. The bank argues that if energy-driven price gains do not spill over, the Fed can look through the Oil shock, while FOMC minutes will clarify how high the bar is for a rate hike.Inflation prints and FOMC minutes in focus"The minutes of the FOMC March 17-18 meeting will be worth monitoring for signals on how high the hurdle is for a rate hike (Wednesday). Recall, at that meeting the FOMC delivered a hawkish hold and Fed Chair Jay Powell flagged that the “possibility that next move might be hike did come up” during the policy discussion. Worth noting that the swaps curve has virtually fully priced-out Fed rate hike bets since March 26, when close to 25bps of tightening was implied.""February PCE will capture the pre-shock inflation and consumer spending backdrop (Thursday). Headline PCE is seen at 2.8% y/y for a second straight month, core PCE is expected to dip 0.1pts to 3.0% y/y, and real personal spending is forecast to rise by 0.2% m/m vs. 0.1% in January. For reference, at its March 17-18 meeting, the FOMC’s median 2026 projection for both headline and core PCE stood at 2.7%.""March CPI will be the first inflation print since the war began (Friday). Headline inflation is poised to quicken sharply due to the surge in gasoline prices. Headline CPI is seen rising to a one-year high at 3.4% y/y vs. 2.4% in February and core CPI is expected to increase to a five-month high at 2.7% y/y vs. 2.5% in February.""Provided that underlying inflation excluding energy remains contained, the Fed can afford to look through the oil-price shock and refrain from raising rates amid a mixed US labor market backdrop.""April University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey will offer a read on how well long-term inflation expectations are anchored. Consensus sees 5 to 10-year inflation expectations rise by 0.3pts to a six-month high at 3.5%, complicating the Fed’s effort to rein-in inflation back to its 2% goal. Today, the March New York Fed survey of consumer expectations takes the data spotlight (4:00pm London, 11:00am New York)."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

The US benchmark West Texas Intermediate Oil (WTI) hesitates near four-week highs on Tuesday. Price action remains steady above the 103.00 per barrel, but attempts to extend gains beyond 105.00 have been capped with US President Donald Trump’s deadline on Tehran approaching.

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The closure of the critical gateway for about 20% of the global Crude supply in the first week of the war between the US and Israel and Iran triggered a rougly 50% appreciation in crude prices. The price of the WTI Oil barrel surged to a peak of $113.28 on March 9 from about $67.00 before the war, threatening the worst energy crisis in history. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

United Kingdom S&P Global Services PMI below forecasts (51.2) in March: Actual (50.5)

United Kingdom S&P Global Composite PMI below expectations (51) in March: Actual (50.3)

Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence: -19.2 (April) vs previous -3.1

Societe Generale’s Commodity Compass Analytics (CCA) team, led by Michael Haigh, Ben Hoff and Jeremy Sellem, highlights that Dated Brent at $141/bbl reflects severe physical tightness as Strait of Hormuz flows remain impaired.

Societe Generale’s Commodity Compass Analytics (CCA) team, led by Michael Haigh, Ben Hoff and Jeremy Sellem, highlights that Dated Brent at $141/bbl reflects severe physical tightness as Strait of Hormuz flows remain impaired. Their scenario work maps outcomes from controlled escalation to prolonged conflict and chokepoint closures, with Brent prices ranging from around $125/bbl to potentially above $200/bbl and only gradual normalisation of inventories into late 2026.Oil shock scenarios and price paths"In this week’s CCA, we examine three new scenarios. The first (A) explores the implications of imposing tolls on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, including the economics of such a charge and its potential ramifications for future conflicts. Spread across approximately 21,900 tanker transits, this implies an average fee of about $520,000 per vessel based on our assumptions, equivalent to roughly $0.26/bbl.""The second scenario (B) focuses on the conflict itself, assuming it extends through April into May, with controlled escalation followed by a relatively swift resolution. In this scenario, oil prices rise further, and demand destruction accelerates, driven by both higher prices and policy‑led consumption adjustments. As conditions eventually normalise, countries would not only rebuild inventories to pre‑war levels but expand stockpiling beyond that, prioritising supply security over price and providing ongoing price support. Under this scenario, prices average $125/bbl in April.""In the third scenario (C), rather than a controlled escalation, the conflict intensifies. This could involve U.S. boots on the ground and would likely trigger a broader regional war, drawing Iran’s proxies more directly into the conflict. In this scenario, we assume oil market disruption escalates sharply, potentially involving a short‑term closure of the Bab el‑Mandeb.""Under these conditions, prices would rise sharply, averaging $150/bbl and potentially exceeding $200/bbl. While demand destruction would accelerate in response to higher prices, precautionary and strategic stockpiling would partially offset this effect, lifting the medium‑term price outlook despite weaker consumption."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Dow Jones futures fall 0.2% to near 46,800 during European hours on Tuesday, ahead of the regular United States (US) open. Meanwhile, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures also decline 0.34% and 0.45% to near 6,620 and 24,250, respectively, at the time of writing.

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Meanwhile, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures also decline 0.34% and 0.45% to near 6,620 and 24,250, respectively, at the time of writing.US stock futures declined as traders prepared for US President Donald Trump’s approaching deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Trump had earlier warned that he could strike Iranian power plants and bridges if his demands are not fulfilled by 8:00 PM Eastern Time on Tuesday.Moreover, Trump said on Monday that the latest proposal for a US ceasefire with Iran is “not good enough” ahead of his deadline for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, though he noted it represents progress. “It’s a very significant step,” Trump added. “They’re negotiating now, and they’ve made a very significant step. We’ll see what happens.”Meanwhile, Iran warned it would respond to any potential US strikes on civilian infrastructure by intensifying attacks on energy assets in the Gulf, a move that could further strain global energy supplies.In regular US trading on Monday, the Dow Jones rose 0.36%, the S&P 500 advanced 0.44%, and the Nasdaq 100 increased 0.54%. Eight of the 11 S&P sectors closed in positive territory, with gains led by consumer discretionary, energy, and consumer staples.Risk aversion increased as Iran's war lifted energy prices, fueling inflation fears and prompting a more hawkish Federal Reserve stance. Markets have fully priced in that the Federal Reserve will hold the federal funds rate steady this month, with borrowing costs likely to remain unchanged through year-end. CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicates a 99.5% probability that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at the April meeting.Traders are now looking ahead to the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes due on Wednesday, along with key inflation data set for release on Friday. On the corporate front, earnings from Delta Air Lines are also drawing attention this week. Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.

European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker and the head of Belgium's central bank, Pierre Wunsch, said in the Wall Street Journal’s (WSJ) What's News podcast conducted on Monday and released on Tuesday that the central bank could deliver an interest rate hike in the April meeting to limit the effect of

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker and the head of Belgium's central bank, Pierre Wunsch, said in the Wall Street Journal’s (WSJ) What's News podcast conducted on Monday and released on Tuesday that the central bank could deliver an interest rate hike in the April meeting to limit the effect of the energy crisis on prices of other goods and services.RemarksThe way I feel comfortable putting it is, if this is not done by June, I think we're going to have to hike, but I don't want to exclude a hike in April.

We need to move at some point to control the indirect effects.

So the focus will be on what's our view over the medium term, and it's still an uncertain view.

Last time we were a little bit late before acting, so this is something probably we have to draw lessons from now."

I'm going to the meeting in April being open in both directions.

Either this crisis ends quite soon and you know if we hike then we can probably undo that after a while. Or, this crisis is going to last and then the first hike will only be the first hike of probably a series.Market reactionThere seems to be no impact of ECB Wunsch's comments on the Euro (EUR). However, EUR/USD rises 0.15% to near 1.1565, as of writing, due to a slight weakness in the US Dollar (USD). ECB FAQs What is the ECB and how does it influence the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Euro? In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Euro? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.

ING’s Chris Turner notes the Dollar (USD) remains supported as investors await a White House deadline linked to the US-Iran conflict and elevated energy prices. Strong US jobs data and resilient activity could see markets price Federal Reserve (Fed) hikes if Oil rises further.

ING’s Chris Turner notes the Dollar (USD) remains supported as investors await a White House deadline linked to the US-Iran conflict and elevated energy prices. Strong US jobs data and resilient activity could see markets price Federal Reserve (Fed) hikes if Oil rises further. Turner expects the US Dollar Index (DXY) to hold firm in a defined range while geopolitical uncertainty persists.Dollar supported by geopolitics and data"The dollar remains well-supported as investors await tonight's deadline from the White House. Failure of a ceasefire being agreed could prompt heavy US and Israeli bombing of Iranian civilian infrastructure and likely backlash from Iran against equivalent targets on its neighbours in the Gulf. Energy prices could face another major leg higher under this scenario.""If US activity data continues to hold up, then the market will be more inclined to price in Federal Reserve hikes should energy prices take another leg higher. Fed policy is currently priced flat this year relative to the two to three hikes priced amongst major trading partners. Feeding into the Fed story this week will be Wednesday's release of the minutes to the 18 March FOMC meeting, plus Friday's update on March CPI.""Consensus expects headline inflation to jump to 3.4% year-on-year from 2.4% prior. Should the market shift to pricing Fed hikes this year, we can only see that as a dollar positive.""Barring some big surprise drop in the weekly ADP jobs data today, expect the dollar to stay bid. We will also hear from several Fed speakers. New York Fed President John Williams appears on Bloomberg television at 2:30pm CET.""Expect DXY to remain bid in a 100.00-100.50 range as traders brace for tonight's deadline."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

China Foreign Exchange Reserves (MoM) came in at $3.342T below forecasts ($3.4T) in March

Eurozone HCOB Services PMI above forecasts (50.1) in March: Actual (50.2)

Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI above expectations (50.5) in March: Actual (50.7)

Germany HCOB Composite PMI in line with expectations (51.9) in March

Germany HCOB Services PMI came in at 50.9 below forecasts (51.2) in March

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann report that GBP/USD briefly dipped to 1.3178 before rebounding to 1.3267 and closing at 1.3238, invalidating a prior downside-biased view.

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann report that GBP/USD briefly dipped to 1.3178 before rebounding to 1.3267 and closing at 1.3238, invalidating a prior downside-biased view. Momentum indicators have turned flat, and the pair is now expected to consolidate between 1.3200 and 1.3280 intraday, and 1.3160–1.3310 over the coming weeks, while a weekly close below 1.3300 could trigger deeper losses.Pound steadies inside broader range"Today, GBP could trade between 1.3200 and 1.3280.""Momentum indicators are turning flat, and for the time being, we expect GBP to trade between 1.3160 and 1.3310.""A weekly close below the key support at 1.3300 could trigger a decline toward the major support zone at 1.2945/1.3010."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

The USD/JPY pair trades calmly around 160.00 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The pair trades broadly sideways amid uncertainty surrounding the ongoing war in the Middle East.

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The pair trades broadly sideways amid uncertainty surrounding the ongoing war in the Middle East.Market participants remain cautious about how the ongoing war will flare after the completion of United States (US) President Donald Trump’s deadline to Iran for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.Over the weekend, US President Trump threatened to destroy Iranian civilian infrastructure if it doesn’t reopen the Strait of Hormuz before Tuesday, 08:00 PM ET.On Monday, US President Trump threatened again, stating that Iran “can be taken out in one night, and that might be tomorrow night” if it denies accepting the proposal.In Japan, weak Overall Household Spending data for February could force traders to pare hawkish Bank of Japan (BoJ) bets in the near term. Earlier in the day, the data arrived -1.7% Year on Year (YoY), surprisingly lower than -0.7% estimates. In January, Overall Household Spending declined by 1%.This week, major triggers for the US Dollar will be the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the March policy meeting and the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March.USD/JPY technical analysisUSD/JPY trades almost flat at around 160.00 as of writing. The near-term bias is mildly bullish as price holds above the rising 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and trades in the upper half of an ascending parallel channel. The recent series of higher lows above the channel floor near 158.40 supports the uptrend, while the RSI around 58 stays comfortably above the 50 line, signaling persistent upside momentum rather than exhaustion.Initial support emerges at the channel bottom near 158.40, where a break would expose deeper downside towards 157.70. On the topside, the first resistance aligns with the channel top near 160.90, and a daily close above that level would confirm a bullish extension towards 162.00.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Risk sentiment FAQs What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets? In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.

Danske Bank analysts observe that global equities are about 4% above recent lows, with investors increasingly pricing a future de-escalation in the Middle East. Cyclical sectors have outperformed and volatility has declined across regions and asset classes.

Danske Bank analysts observe that global equities are about 4% above recent lows, with investors increasingly pricing a future de-escalation in the Middle East. Cyclical sectors have outperformed and volatility has declined across regions and asset classes. They note that markets are trying to look through near-term geopolitical noise while tracking US and Asian moves.Cyclicals lead as volatility eases"Equity markets traded broadly sideways over the Easter period in the regions that remained open, following the rebound seen into the holiday.""Markets in the US edged higher yesterday, while Asian trading this morning is mixed.""Importantly, this does not change the bigger picture: global equities are still ~4% above the recent lows, reflecting a market that is increasingly pricing when - not if - we get a de-escalation in the Middle East.""Cyclicals have, not surprisingly, outperformed from the lows.""More notably, however, volatility has declined across regions and asset classes, reinforcing the notion that investors are trying to look through the near-term noise."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

France HCOB Composite PMI came in at 48.8, above forecasts (48.3) in March

France HCOB Services PMI above forecasts (48.3) in March: Actual (48.8)

The Euro (EUR) is crawling up against a weak Japanese Yen (JPY) on Tuesday. The pair extends gains for the second consecutive day, trading at 184.47 at the time of writing, with bulls focusing on March’s peaks in the 184.65-184.75 area.

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The Euro (EUR) is crawling up against a weak Japanese Yen (JPY) on Tuesday. The pair extends gains for the second consecutive day, trading at 184.47 at the time of writing, with bulls focusing on March’s peaks in the 184.65-184.75 area.The Yen is struggling on Tuesday, weighed down by growing concerns about the economic consequences of high Oil prices, if Iran does not open the Strait of Hormuz soon.Concerns about an inflation spiral in JapanInvestors are wary that the price pressures stemming from high energy costs in a major Oil importer such as Japan, coupled with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s stimulus programs, might trigger an inflation spiral, forcing the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to hike rates while the Government increases an already ballooning debt to soften the inflationary impact on households.Underlying inflation in Japan has reached the BoJ’s 2% target and is expected to keep accelerating if the war in Iran extends. Futures markets are pricing a 50% chance of a BoJ rate hike in April and almost fully pricing a hike before the summer. A former BoJ Monetary Policy Committee member, Seiji Adachi, endorsed this view on Tuesday, affirming that the bank is under pressure to move quickly if it doesn’t want to fall behind the curve.The European Central Bank (ECB) is also expected to hike interest rates in the near term, probably also in April, although the newest member of the ECB’s Governing Council, Dimitar Radev, refused to commit on that date in a recent interview with Reuters. Radev acknowledged that inflation expectations are at risk of rising faster than in the past but said that the bank will need further data to confirm April’s decision. Central banks FAQs What does a central bank do? Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%. What does a central bank do when inflation undershoots or overshoots its projected target? A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing. Who decides on monetary policy and interest rates? A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%. Is there a president or head of a central bank? Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.

Italy HCOB Services PMI below forecasts (51) in March: Actual (48.8)

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is holding ground after registering losses in the previous trading day and hovering around 100.00 during the European hours on Tuesday.

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The Greenback receives support on increased safe-haven demand amid peace talks uncertainty surrounding the Iran war.US President Donald Trump warned that he could target Iranian power plants and bridges unless his demands are met by 8:00 PM Eastern Time on Tuesday. Trump said on Monday that the latest proposal for a US ceasefire with Iran is “not good enough" ahead of his deadline for Iran to either reopen the Strait of Hormuz. “It’s not good enough, but it’s a very significant step,” Trump said, adding, “They’re negotiating now, and they’ve made a very significant step. We’ll see what happens.”The US Dollar receives support as the Iran war lifts energy prices, fueling inflation fears and prompting a more hawkish Federal Reserve stance. Markets have fully priced in that the Federal Reserve will hold the federal funds rate steady this month, with borrowing costs likely to remain unchanged through year-end.CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicates a 99.5% probability that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at the April meeting. Traders are now looking ahead to the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes for clearer guidance on the central bank’s policy trajectory. US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

Rabobank’s Senior Market Strategist Benjamin Picton highlights escalating geopolitical risks around Iran, the Strait of Hormuz and NATO fractures, with direct implications for Oil.

Rabobank’s Senior Market Strategist Benjamin Picton highlights escalating geopolitical risks around Iran, the Strait of Hormuz and NATO fractures, with direct implications for Oil. He notes infrastructure damage to petrochemical assets, sharply higher WTI and Brent prices, and warns that prolonged closure of the Strait and further US strikes on Iranian infrastructure could prevent a rapid recovery in global Oil supply and demand.War escalation keeps crude markets tense"Infrastructure damage is mounting. Israel recently struck Iranian petrochemical infrastructure at the South Pars gas field. Iran retaliated by launching ballistic missile strikes against Saudi Arabia’s Al-Jubail industrial city – the world’s largest petrochemicals production cluster.""The WTI front future is up 0.7% this morning to $113.15/bbl, while dated-Brent closed at $141.26/bbl on Thursday – highlighting the wide spread between physical crude and the front future ($109.88/bbl), which is now the June contract.""This puts us firmly back into ‘escalate to de-escalate’ territory, while also pushing us further along the severity spectrum where the Strait remains closed for longer and damage to economic infrastructure means that ‘re-opening’ does not imply any kind of rapid snap-back for the global economy.""Ukraine has managed to do substantial damage to Russian economic (oil) infrastructure in recent weeks even as the rest of the world is desperate for more oil to come to market.""As we approach the deadline for escalation a significant ‘what if’ lingers: If the lines between the two conflicts continue to blur and two coalesce into one, who then will say “not our war”?"(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, April 7:

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, April 7:Markets cling to a cautious stance early Tuesday as United States (US) President Donald Trump's 20:00 EST deadline for Iran to reach an agreement to end the war nears. In the second half of the day, the US economic calendar will feature weekly ADP Employment Change 4-week Average data and the US Census Bureau will publish Durable Goods Orders for February. US Dollar Price Last 7 Days The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies last 7 days. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.61% -0.39% 0.10% -0.02% -0.86% 0.39% 0.03% EUR 0.61% 0.30% 0.72% 0.66% -0.20% 1.00% 0.70% GBP 0.39% -0.30% 0.44% 0.34% -0.50% 0.74% 0.42% JPY -0.10% -0.72% -0.44% -0.13% -1.10% 0.27% -0.02% CAD 0.02% -0.66% -0.34% 0.13% -0.90% 0.40% 0.07% AUD 0.86% 0.20% 0.50% 1.10% 0.90% 1.28% 0.92% NZD -0.39% -1.00% -0.74% -0.27% -0.40% -1.28% -0.33% CHF -0.03% -0.70% -0.42% 0.02% -0.07% -0.92% 0.33% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). US President Trump told reporters late Monday that every bridge and every powerplant in Iran will be destroyed by midnight Tuesday if Iran doesn't agree to a deal that is acceptable to him, adding that opening the Strait of Hormuz fully must be part of it.In response, Iran's top joint military command called Trump's threats 'delusional' and said that those threats won't make up for the US' 'humiliation and disgrace' in the Middle East. Additionally, an advisor to Iran's Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said on Tuesday that US President Donald Trump has about 20 hours to either surrender to Iran, or his allies will return to the Paleolithic Age. After posting marginal losses on Monday, the US Dollar (USD) Index stabilizes near 100.00 in the European morning on Tuesday. US stock index futures lose between 0.3% and 0.5%, while crude Oil price edge higher, with the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rising about 1% on the day near $105.00.The data from the US showed on Monday that the business activity in the service sector expanded at a healthy pace in March, with the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) coming in at 54. On a negative note, the Employment Index of the survey dropped to 45.2 from 51.8 in February, highlighting a decline in the service sector payrolls. Finally, the Prices Paid Index climbed to 70.7 from 63, reflecting stronger input inflation.EUR/USD trades in a narrow channel at around 1.1550 after posting small gains on Monday. GBP/USD gained 0.3% and snapped a two-day losing streak on Monday. The pair stays in a consolidation phase above 1.3200 in the European morning on Tuesday.NZD/USD edges lower and trades near 0.5700 after closing in negative territory on Monday. In the early trading hours of the Asian session on Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will announce monetary policy decisions.USD/JPY failed to make a decisive move in either direction on Monday and ended the day virtually unchanged. The pair extends its sideways grind and trades below 160.00 early Tuesday.Gold (XAU/USD) managed to erase a small portion of its losses after opening the week with a bearish gap but failed to gather momentum. XAU/USD stays quiet early Tuesday and holds above $4,600. US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects Canada’s March labor force survey to show a modest job rebound, while the Bank of Canada (BoC) can use its benign inflation backdrop to look through the Oil shock.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects Canada’s March labor force survey to show a modest job rebound, while the Bank of Canada (BoC) can use its benign inflation backdrop to look through the Oil shock. He notes that rate hike pricing has been trimmed and continues to favor long Canadian Dollar (CAD) crosses as a hedge against a more persistent energy price shock.Jobs data and Oil dynamics support CAD"March labor force survey is due on Friday. The economy is expected to add +14.9k jobs after losing -83.9k in February. Encouragingly, Canada’s favorable inflation backdrop gives the Bank of Canada (BoC) a small cushion to look through the oil-price shock and refrain from raising rates in the face of a worsening labor market.""The swaps curve has trimmed BoC rate hike bets over the next twelve months from as much as 75bps on March 26 to around 50bps currently.""We still favor long CAD on the crosses as a good hedge against a more persistent energy price shock. Canada gets the terms of trade boost and has fiscal space to absorb some of the growth drag to domestic demand."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

The NZD/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the previous day's modest gains and trades with a negative bias around the 0.5700 mark during the early European session on Tuesday.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}NZD/USD edges lower as persistent geopolitical uncertainties revive the USD demand.Traders now seem reluctant ahead of Trump’s deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.The bearish technical setup backs the case for a further near-term depreciating move.The NZD/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the previous day's modest gains and trades with a negative bias around the 0.5700 mark during the early European session on Tuesday. Spot prices remain close to the lowest level since November 2025, touched last Friday, amid nervousness ahead of US President Donald Trump's deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.In the meantime, fading hopes for a last-minute agreement between the US and Iran, along with the risk of a further escalation of tensions, weigh on investors' sentiment. Furthermore, expectations that the war-driven surge in energy prices will boost inflation and force the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to adopt a hawkish stance revive the US Dollar (USD) demand, which, in turn, is seen weighing on the NZD/USD pair.From a technical perspective, the recent failure near the very important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and acceptance below the 0.5730 horizontal support breakpoint favors the NZD/USD bears. Furthermore, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains below the zero line with the MACD line under its signal line and a negative histogram, which reinforces persistent selling pressure rather than a clean momentum reversal.Adding to this, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 36, avoiding oversold territory but still pointing to dominant downside momentum. Meanwhile, initial support aligns with the late sequence lows around 0.5690, followed by the 0.5650 region, where a break would open the way toward the 0.5600 area. As long as price trades below 0.5800 and the 200-day SMA, rallies are exposed to renewed selling into these resistance layers.On the upside, immediate resistance emerges at the recent congestion area around 0.5750, with the 0.5800 handle capping the upside ahead of the 200-day SMA near 0.5850, a zone that would need to give way to ease the bearish tone.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)NZD/USD daily chart US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.01% -0.01% 0.13% 0.10% 0.06% 0.19% 0.13% EUR -0.01% -0.03% 0.07% 0.06% 0.03% 0.18% 0.12% GBP 0.01% 0.03% 0.11% 0.11% 0.09% 0.21% 0.17% JPY -0.13% -0.07% -0.11% -0.01% -0.04% 0.08% 0.03% CAD -0.10% -0.06% -0.11% 0.01% -0.03% 0.08% 0.05% AUD -0.06% -0.03% -0.09% 0.04% 0.03% 0.13% 0.09% NZD -0.19% -0.18% -0.21% -0.08% -0.08% -0.13% -0.02% CHF -0.13% -0.12% -0.17% -0.03% -0.05% -0.09% 0.02% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

Spain HCOB Services PMI came in at 53.3, above expectations (50.8) in March

OCBC strategists Christopher Wong and Sim Moh Siong note that global markets are cautious as Hormuz risks and energy disruptions threaten to evolve into a broader energy shock. Survey data already show rising input costs and longer delivery times.

OCBC strategists Christopher Wong and Sim Moh Siong note that global markets are cautious as Hormuz risks and energy disruptions threaten to evolve into a broader energy shock. Survey data already show rising input costs and longer delivery times. They argue that a credible de-escalation in the Middle East would likely support global risk assets and non-US economies, allowing the Dollar to resume a shallow depreciation trend.Energy risks key for USD direction"Markets tread water as Hormuz risks and energy disruptions loom. Survey data already reflect a nascent energy shock. Escalation would trigger risk-off; credible de-escalation would favour global risk assets and a softer USD.""The energy shock is increasingly visible in survey data, threatening to derail the anticipated improvement in sentiment. Recent global manufacturing PMIs show longer supplier delivery times, rising input costs and higher output prices, reflecting shipping bottlenecks and flight disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict.""Looking ahead, a sharp escalation targeting energy infrastructure would likely trigger a decisive risk-off move. Conversely, credible signs of de-escalation should see the USD resume a shallow depreciation trend, as easing energy risks would favour non-US economies and global risk assets."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

The Pound (GBP) trades higher against the Japanese Yen (JPY) for the second consecutive day on Tuesday. Bulls have pushed the pair above the top of last week’s trading range, at the 211.50 area, reaching fresh April highs above 211.65 at the time of writing.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}GBP/JPY extends gains and hits fresh April highs above 211.65.Concerns of a protracted war in Iran are hitting the Yen harder than the Pound.The pair's recovery might target the mid-212.00s.The Pound (GBP) trades higher against the Japanese Yen (JPY) for the second consecutive day on Tuesday. Bulls have pushed the pair above the top of last week’s trading range, at the 211.50 area, reaching fresh April highs above 211.65 at the time of writing.The pair has regained more than half of late-March’s losses, with the GBP showing stronger resilience than the Yen to the consequences of Iran’s war. Investors are increasingly concerned that the high Crude prices, coupled with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s stimulus programs, might trigger an inflation spiral in Japan, which is weighing heavily on a traditional safe asset, such as the Yen.

Technical Analysis
GBP/JPY shows an increasing bullish momentum. Monday's bullish engulfing candle in the daily chart and the breach of the 211.50 resistance area on Tuesday have given bulls fresh hopes to extend gains towards the 212.00 area and beyond.

Momentum indicators endorse that view. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) has advanced from oversold territory into the 60 area, signaling recovering upside pressure, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line holds above the signal line in positive territory with a gently widening positive reading. This reinforces the view that buyers are gradually gaining control.

Price action suggests that the pair is in the C-D leg of a Gartley pattern. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the mentioned late March downtrend, at 211.92, might offer some resistance. A potential target for this figure, though, is the area between late March lows, at 212.30, and the 78.2% retacement of the same cycle, at 212.55.Support is seen at 210.35, which held bears on April 2 and 6, closing the path to the March 31 low, at 209.65.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Japanese Yen Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.01% -0.04% 0.10% 0.10% 0.04% 0.18% 0.10% EUR -0.01% -0.05% 0.06% 0.05% 0.02% 0.16% 0.11% GBP 0.04% 0.05% 0.13% 0.11% 0.09% 0.22% 0.17% JPY -0.10% -0.06% -0.13% 0.00% -0.04% 0.09% 0.04% CAD -0.10% -0.05% -0.11% -0.01% -0.04% 0.08% 0.02% AUD -0.04% -0.02% -0.09% 0.04% 0.04% 0.13% 0.09% NZD -0.18% -0.16% -0.22% -0.09% -0.08% -0.13% -0.02% CHF -0.10% -0.11% -0.17% -0.04% -0.02% -0.09% 0.02% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

GBP/USD holds its position after registering over 0.25% gains in the previous day, trading around 1.3240 during the early European hours on Tuesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates a persistent bearish bias, as the pair moves lower within the descending channel.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}GBP/USD may fall toward the lower boundary of the descending channel around 1.3130.The 14-day Relative Strength Index hovers in the low-40s, indicating weak momentum.The pair tests the initial resistance at the nine-day EMA of 1.3255.GBP/USD holds its position after registering over 0.25% gains in the previous day, trading around 1.3240 during the early European hours on Tuesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates a persistent bearish bias, as the pair moves lower within the descending channel.The GBP/USD pair holds below both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which cap the upside and keep the near-term bias mildly bearish. Price action has been grinding lower from the mid-1.34s, and the failure to reclaim the nine-day EMA underscores persistent selling on rallies.The latest 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers in the low-40s, confirming weak momentum rather than oversold conditions and leaving room for further downside extension.The GBP/USD pair may find its primary support at the descending channel’s lower boundary around 1.3130. A break below the channel would expose the 1.3010, the lowest since April 2025, which was recorded in November 2025.On the upside, the immediate barrier lies at the nine-day EMA of 1.3255. Further advances would lead the GBP/USD pair to test the 50-day EMA at 1.3380, followed by the upper descending channel boundary around 1.3430. A successful break above the channel would cause an emergence of a bullish bias, supporting the pair to explore the area around the 1.3869, the highest level since September 2021, reached on January 27.GBP/USD: Daily Chart(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Pound Sterling Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.02% -0.07% 0.08% 0.07% -0.02% 0.12% 0.08% EUR 0.02% -0.05% 0.06% 0.05% -0.01% 0.13% 0.11% GBP 0.07% 0.05% 0.13% 0.12% 0.06% 0.19% 0.17% JPY -0.08% -0.06% -0.13% 0.00% -0.08% 0.04% 0.02% CAD -0.07% -0.05% -0.12% -0.00% -0.08% 0.04% 0.03% AUD 0.02% 0.01% -0.06% 0.08% 0.08% 0.12% 0.11% NZD -0.12% -0.13% -0.19% -0.04% -0.04% -0.12% 0.00% CHF -0.08% -0.11% -0.17% -0.02% -0.03% -0.11% -0.00% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

Switzerland Foreign Currency Reserves increased to 721B in March from previous 710B

Austria Wholesale Prices n.s.a (YoY) up to 5.4% in March from previous 1.1%

Austria Wholesale Prices n.s.a (MoM) increased to 3.9% in March from previous 0.7%

The USD/CAD pair trades in positive territory around 1.3915 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/CAD gains traction near 1.3915 in Tuesday’s early European session. Trump warned of attacks as Hormuz deal deadline nears. Rising crude oil prices might underpin the commodity-linked Loonie and cap the upside for the pair. The USD/CAD pair trades in positive territory around 1.3915 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday. The Greenback strengthens against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) amid uncertainty surrounding a potential Tuesday deadline set by the US for military action against Iranian infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened.US President Donald Trump said on Monday that Iran’s response to the US ceasefire proposal, conveyed through intermediaries, is “significant” but “not good enough.” He warned of the “complete demolition” of Iran’s power plants and bridges in a matter of hours if the Strait of Hormuz is not fully reopened by his deadline. Persistent tensions in the Middle East could boost a safe-haven currency such as the US Dollar (USD) in the near term. Meanwhile, rising crude oil prices could provide some support to the commodity-linked Loonie. It is worth noting that Canada is a major oil-exporting country, and higher crude oil prices generally have a positive impact on the CAD. Data released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Monday showed that the Services PMI fell to 54.0 in March, compared to 56.1 in February. This reading came in weaker than expected at 55.0, signalling some loss of momentum in the sector. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Michael Wan notes that Oil markets remain exposed to the Iran and Middle East conflict, with the Strait of Hormuz still constrained.

MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Michael Wan notes that Oil markets remain exposed to the Iran and Middle East conflict, with the Strait of Hormuz still constrained. Tankers are testing alternative southern routes near Oman and Iran has said Iraq can ship Oil via the Strait, which could theoretically add supply, though insurance, tanker availability and timing still limit any immediate impact.Hormuz constraints keep Oil risk elevated"As such we remain cautious on the path for Asian currencies and risk assets moving forward, but note at least two important developments in oil markets and potentially positive ones notwithstanding continued uncertainty around how the Iran/Middle East conflict will develop:""1st: It seems tankers are now testing an alternative route to exit the Strait of Hormuz, by hugging close to the south of the SoH where Oman is rather than the north where Iran is and where tolls are reportedly paid through Qeshm Island.""The evidence suggests that a higher number of tankers have passed through in recent days, although to be clear the overall numbers still remain well below pre-Iran conflict levels and directionally this is more from West to East (exiting the Strait), rather than in both directions.""2nd: Iran over the weekend announced that Iraq is now allowed to ship oil out from the Strait of Hormuz.""Taken at face value, this may mean 3mb/day of additional oil could now hit the market, but of course there are still many unknowns right now around how Iran is defining "Iraq oil"."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note AUD/USD rebounded to 0.6938 instead of drifting lower, but the move lacked momentum. The pair is seen trading between 0.6890 and 0.6940 in the near term and within a wider 0.6835–0.6955 band over one to three weeks.

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note AUD/USD rebounded to 0.6938 instead of drifting lower, but the move lacked momentum. The pair is seen trading between 0.6890 and 0.6940 in the near term and within a wider 0.6835–0.6955 band over one to three weeks. The broader technical picture still points lower, with a break of 0.6850/0.6870 opening 0.6765.Australian Dollar rebound seen as limited"The advance did not gather much momentum, and instead of continuing to rise today, AUD is more likely to trade in a range of 0.6890/0.6940.""AUD is likely to trade in a range of 0.6835/0.6955.""The overall technical picture points to a lower AUD/USD; a breach of the 0.6850/0.6870 support zone could trigger a decline toward 0.6765."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Silver price (XAG/USD) trades broadly flat around $72.50 during the early European trading session on Tuesday. The white metal struggles for a direction as investors await Iran’s final decision over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

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The white metal struggles for a direction as investors await Iran’s final decision over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.Over the weekend, United States (US) President Donald Trump warned through a post on Truth.Social that he will destroy Iranian power plants and bridges if it doesn't reopen the Hormuz by Tuesday, 08:00 ET.Ahead of US President Trump’s ultimatum, Iranian officials have stated that they won’t open the Hormuz in exchange for a temporary ceasefire.Theoretically, heightened geopolitical tensions improve demand for safe-haven assets, such as Silver; however, it has been underperforming since the Middle East war started, as rising energy prices due to conflicts have prompted global inflation expectations. This scenario generally discourages central banks from easing monetary conditions, which diminishes demand for non-yielding assets, such as Silver.Meanwhile, investors await the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the March policy meeting, which will be released on Wednesday. In the meeting, the Fed kept interest rates steady in the range of 3.50%-3.75%, and stated that the current policy stance is appropriate. In the press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned that “higher energy prices will push up inflation in the near term”.To understand the current inflation situation, investors will focus on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March, which will be released on Friday.Silver technical analysisXAG/USD trades almost flat at around $72.50 at the press time. The pair holds a bearish near-term bias as price extends its decline below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which has turned lower and now tracks well above the market, reinforcing downside pressure. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near 43 and trends below the 50 line, confirming persistent negative momentum rather than a capitulatory oversold stretch.Initial resistance emerges at the descending 20-day EMA at $75.00, and a break above this area would be needed to ease immediate selling pressure. Beyond that, the next resistance stands at the April 2 high at $81.13. On the downside, immediate support aligns near $70.00, and a sustained break below this floor would open the path toward the next support zone around the March 26 low of $66.71.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to keep rates unchanged at its April meeting, despite the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) recent hike and the Third Gulf War shock.

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to keep rates unchanged at its April meeting, despite the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) recent hike and the Third Gulf War shock. Markets price almost no chance of an immediate move, with any further tightening pushed into the second half of 2026 and highly dependent on global developments rather than domestic data.RBNZ cautious after Gulf War shock"Early tomorrow morning (GMT), the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will convene for its second monetary policy meeting of the year and its first since the outbreak of the Third Gulf War. However, while the Reserve Bank of Australia on the other side of the Tasman Sea raised interest rates about three weeks ago, I do not expect the RBNZ to follow suit tomorrow.""The market has priced in only a 5% chance of a rate hike, and not a single analyst surveyed by Bloomberg expects a hike in April. Since the war began, the market has indeed anticipated more rate hikes this year."The market’s and analysts’ assessment aligns with Governor Anna Breman’s remarks from late March, in which she stated that, as a forward-looking central bank, one should first look beyond a supply shock -such as the one this conflict represents for New Zealand."However, Anna Breman also said that one should not wait until potential second-round effects manifest in inflation. In the coming weeks and months, the central bank will therefore place greater emphasis on price developments that can be observed at a higher frequency than inflation figures and will give greater weight to potential changes in wage trends and inflation expectations.""We will certainly learn more details about the RBNZ’s thinking and how it intends to respond to this situation in the coming months at tomorrow’s meeting. A rate hike at the next meeting in May certainly cannot be ruled out, but it would likely be more closely tied to the external environment (the Gulf War) than to developments in New Zealand.""Anything other than unchanged rates tomorrow would be a huge surprise and would move the Kiwi accordingly."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

The Euro (EUR) is showing a moderate selling tone against the US Dollar (USD) as traders return from a long Easter weekend on Tuesday.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}EUR/USD remains within previous ranges, at 1.1530 amid a mild bearish bias.Investors hold their breath ahead of Trump's deadline for destroying Iran.ECB's Radev says that it is too early to bet on an April rate hike.The Euro (EUR) is showing a moderate selling tone against the US Dollar (USD) as traders return from a long Easter weekend on Tuesday. The pair was rejected at 1.1571 on Monday but remains steady at 1.1530 at the time of writing, at a safe distance from the bottom of the last few days’ trading range, at 1.1505, with all eyes on Iran’s war.

US President Donald Trump reiterated his threats on Monday, warning Tehran that the US could destroy a country tonight, as the latest deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz expires on Tuesday, at 8 PM Easter Time (00:00 GMT on Wednesday).Previously, the US and Iran rejected the 45-day ceasefire proposal offered by Pakistan, and Tehran came out with an alternative plan, considered “significant” by Trump but not good enough.Investors maintain some confidence in a last-minute breakthrough, which is keeping the Euro from depreciating further. Apart from that, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Governing Council member, Dimitar Radev, affirmed that it is still “too early” to say whether the bank will hike rates in April, as they might need some data amid the elevated level of uncertainty.
Technical Analysis: Sideways consolidationNothing new from the technical perspective. The EUR/USD keeps consolidating within a horizontal range, amid a mildly bearish near-term bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers just below the 50 line, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram has flattened around zero with its line turned marginally negative, showing a cautious stance rather than a strong directional push.

Immediate support emerges at the 1.1505 area, which held bears on April 2 and 6. A confirmation below here would expose the March 30 and 31 lows near 1.1440, ahead of the multi-month lows, at 1.1411 hit in mid-March.

A bullish reaction above the near-term channel's top, at the 1.1570 area, would target the late March and early April highs, in the area between 1.1630 and 1.1640. Further up, the March 10 high, at 1.1667, emerges as a plausible target.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.07% 0.02% 0.06% 0.05% 0.00% 0.16% 0.08% EUR -0.07% -0.04% -0.04% -0.05% -0.08% 0.10% 0.03% GBP -0.02% 0.04% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.15% 0.09% JPY -0.06% 0.04% -0.02% -0.01% -0.05% 0.10% 0.04% CAD -0.05% 0.05% -0.01% 0.01% -0.04% 0.11% 0.06% AUD -0.00% 0.08% -0.00% 0.05% 0.04% 0.15% 0.10% NZD -0.16% -0.10% -0.15% -0.10% -0.11% -0.15% -0.03% CHF -0.08% -0.03% -0.09% -0.04% -0.06% -0.10% 0.03% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

Danske Bank analysts stress that tensions in the Middle East and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz are keeping Oil markets on edge. Brent has risen to 111 USD/bbl as traders assess risks to global energy supply.

Danske Bank analysts stress that tensions in the Middle East and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz are keeping Oil markets on edge. Brent has risen to 111 USD/bbl as traders assess risks to global energy supply. The bank expects constrained traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to persist, supporting higher energy prices and feeding into inflation forecasts.Brent reflects Hormuz supply disruption risk"Focus continues to be on tensions in the Middle East, keeping oil markets and risk sentiment on edge.""At the time of writing, Brent crude prices have risen to 111 USD/bbl as markets assess the risks to global energy supply.""Compared to our previous forecast, the inflation path has been revised upwards, reflecting our view that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will remain subdued for an extended period, exerting pressure on supply chains.""The underlying assumption remains that a ceasefire and/or broader stabilization would imply a partial (if not full) reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, easing constraints on global energy supply.""This view is increasingly supported by a pick-up in bilateral agreements, particularly between Asian economies and Iran, allowing some oil flows to resume via alternative arrangements."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

The USD/CHF pair gathers strength near 0.7990 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday. The Greenback edges higher against the Swiss Franc (CHF) on a widening monetary policy divergence between the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB).

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The Greenback edges higher against the Swiss Franc (CHF) on a widening monetary policy divergence between the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB). The US Durable Goods Orders and ADP Employment reports will be released later on Tuesday. Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding US President Donald Trump’s deadline for Iran to make a peace deal. Trump said on Monday that the latest proposal for a US ceasefire with Iran is “not good enough.” He threatened to target Iran's power plants and bridges if the strategic waterway is not reopened, setting a precise deadline of Tuesday, 8 p.m. Eastern Time (00:00 GMT Wednesday). Attention remains firmly on the Strait of Hormuz,  a crucial route for Middle East oil flows, with the US president insisting any agreement must guarantee continued transit through the waterway.Meanwhile, surging crude oil prices due to supply disruption prompt traders to reduce expectations of US interest rate cuts, lifting the US Dollar (USD). Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said on Monday that a rate hike would be appropriate if inflation persists above the 2% target.On the Swiss front, Switzerland’s inflation rate jumped in March to the fastest pace in a year as the energy supply crunch caused by the war in the Middle East stoked the cost of heating oil. Hotter Swiss inflation has reduced pressure on the SNB to return to negative interest rates.  Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.

The AUD/USD pair trades in a tight range around 0.6900 during the early European trading session on Tuesday.

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The Aussie pair consolidates as investors await Tehran’s response to United States (US) President Donald Trump’s warning to destroy Iranian power plants and bridges if it doesn’t reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday, 08:00 PM ET.Market sentiment remains cautious, with the S&P 500 futures trading 0.5% down during the press time. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally higher around 100.10.Ahead of the deadline, statements from Iranian officials indicate that the nation is unlikely to reopen the Hormuz, a scenario that could mark an escalation in the ongoing war. An advisor to Iran's Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf stated that “Trump has about 20 hours to either surrender to Iran, or his allies will return to the Paleolithic Age”.On the domestic front, investors await the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the March policy meeting, which will be released on Wednesday. This week, the major highlight will be the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March, which is scheduled for Friday.AUD/USD technical analysisAUD/USD trades cautiously at around 0.6910 as of writing. The near-term bias is mildly bearish as spot holds below the 20-day exponential moving average, which has started to roll over and cap bounces in the 0.6960 area. Price action shows a sequence of lower closes from the 0.71 region, while the RSI has slipped below the 50 line and stabilizes in the low-40s, confirming building downside momentum rather than oversold conditions.Initial resistance emerges at the 20-day EMA near 0.6960, with a break above exposing the March 23 high around 0.7060 as the next barrier. On the downside, immediate support stands at 0.6880, guarding the recent trough at 0.6835. A daily close below 0.6835 would extend the bearish phase toward the 0.6800 handle, while recovery above 0.6960 would ease selling pressure and open a corrective phase within the broader range.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Economic Indicator FOMC Minutes FOMC stands for The Federal Open Market Committee that organizes 8 meetings in a year and reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. FOMC Minutes are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and are a clear guide to the future US interest rate policy.
Read more. Next release: Wed Apr 08, 2026 18:00 Frequency: Irregular Consensus: - Previous: - Source: Federal Reserve Why it matters to traders? Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is usually published three weeks after the day of the policy decision. Investors look for clues regarding the policy outlook in this publication alongside the vote split. A bullish tone is likely to provide a boost to the greenback while a dovish stance is seen as USD-negative. It needs to be noted that the market reaction to FOMC Minutes could be delayed as news outlets don’t have access to the publication before the release, unlike the FOMC’s Policy Statement.

The Indian Rupee (INR) ticks up against the US Dollar (USD) in the opening trade on Tuesday.

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The USD/INR pair edges down to near 93.00, while it is expected to remain range bound as investors stay on sidelines ahead of United States (US) President Donald Trump’s ultimatum to Iran either to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face brutal consequences whose deadline is Tuesday, April 7, 08:00 PM Eastern Time (ET), which will be 05:30 AM IST on Wednesday.Trump threatens hell if Iran misses deadlineOver the weekend, US President Trump warned, through a post on Truth.Social, that Washington will bomb Iranian power plants and bridges, if it doesn’t reopen the Strait of Hormuz before the deadline.Meanwhile, comments from Iran signal that it won’t back down, as it threatened reciprocal attacks on the regional US infrastructure and its allies. An advisor to Iran's Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf stated that “Trump has about 20 hours to either surrender to Iran, or his allies will return to the Paleolithic Age”.Market participants worry that a fresh escalation in the ongoing war would boost oil prices, a scenario that is unfavorable for the Indian Rupee, being the currency of a nation that caters its 88%-89% of its domestic energy needs through oil imports.The ongoing tensions in the Middle East have dampened the interest of foreign investors in the Indian stock market. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continue to dump their stake in the Indian equity market, and have offloaded their stake worth Rs. 26,429.45 crore in the three trading days of April gone by.Investors await RBI’s policy decision and FOMC minutesOn the domestic front, the next major trigger for the Indian Rupee will be the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday. The RBI is expected to leave its Repo Rate unchanged at 5.25%, as higher energy prices have prompted inflation expectations globally.As the RBI is highly anticipated to maintain the status quo, investors will pay close attention to comments from the Indian central bank regarding the outlook of inflation, economic growth and key borrowing rates.In the US, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the March policy meeting will be published on late Wednesday. In the policy meeting, the Fed decided to leave interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.50%-3.75% and stated that “higher energy prices will push up inflation in the near term”.Technical Analysis: USD/INR turns range bound as RSI sifts into 40.00-60.00 zoneUSD/INR edges down to near 93.00 in the opening trade on Tuesday. The near-term bias appears neutral as the pair trades close to the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is at 92.95, capping rebounds. The overall trend remains bullish as the higher highs and higher lows structure has not broken yet.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) shifts into the 40.00-60.00 zone from the bullish territory above 60.00, signifying that momentum has cooled down, but the bullish bias remains intact.Initial support emerges at the March 9 high of 92.35, with a daily close below this level opening the room toward the March 5 low of 91.35. On the topside, immediate resistance stands at the April 2 high of 93.66; a break above that level would reassert the bullish trend, which will improve the odds of the price reclaiming the all-time high of 95.22. Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.

The EUR/GBP cross trades on a flat note around 0.8720 during the early European session on Tuesday. Traders will take more cues from the Eurozone Retail Sales and German inflation data, which are due later this week.

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Traders will take more cues from the Eurozone Retail Sales and German inflation data, which are due later this week. These reports could offer some cues about the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate path this year.Meanwhile, the Euro (EUR) could receive some support from the hawkish tone of the European Central Bank (ECB). ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasizied that policy will remain restrictive until inflation sustainably returns to the 2% target. Additionally, ECB policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said last week that the central bank's next interest rate move will very likely be an increase although it is still ‌too early to say when it will start hiking. Markets have priced in 2–3 interest rate hikes for 2026 due to surging energy-driven inflation, a significant shift from previous expectations of holding rates.The Bank of England (BoE) has shifted from a bias toward cutting rates to a "wait-and-see" stance. The UK central bank is expected to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% for the rest of the year, according to a narrow majority of economists polled by Reuters who have mostly abandoned their previous expectations for cuts but have not followed financial markets in expecting nearly three rate rises this year. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

The European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker, Dimitar Radev said on Tuesday that it is too early to say if rate hike at the April policy meeting is needed.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} The European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker, Dimitar Radev said on Tuesday that it is too early to say if rate hike at the April policy meeting is needed.Key quotesLikelihood of adverse inflation scenario is increasing.

Inflation expectations may shift faster due to memory of price surge after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.

ECB must be ready to act if signs of inflation persistence emerge.

It is too early to say if rate hike on April 30 is needed.

Inflation expectations anchored for now, second-round impacts not yet visible.Market reactionAt the time of press, the EUR/USD pair is down 0.03% on the day at 1.1537. ECB FAQs What is the ECB and how does it influence the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Euro? In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Euro? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.

AUD/JPY holds ground after posting gains in the previous trading day, hovering around 110.50 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The currency cross remains in the positive territory as the Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens amid uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) policy stance.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}AUD/JPY holds firm as the Japanese Yen weakens amid uncertainty over the Bank of Japan’s policy outlook.A senior BoJ official signaled rates will keep rising if the economic outlook remains on track.S&P Global Australia Services PMI fell to 46.3 in March from 52.8 in February, marking a sharp contraction in activity.AUD/JPY holds ground after posting gains in the previous trading day, hovering around 110.50 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The currency cross remains in the positive territory as the Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens amid uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) policy stance.A senior BoJ official signaled last week that the central bank will continue raising interest rates if its economic outlook remains intact, maintaining a tightening bias despite surveys pointing to mounting pressure on firms from higher fuel costs tied to Middle East tensions. However, traders remain uncertain about whether it will offer clear forward guidance ahead of its April 28 policy meeting.Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Tuesday that G7 finance ministers and central bankers agreed that volatile oil prices are driving significant swings in financial and foreign exchange markets. She added that authorities have not yet estimated the cost of continuing fuel subsidies to stabilize gasoline prices, noting there are no concerns over current oil stock levels, but uncertainty remains about supporting Southeast Asian partners. Policymakers are assessing all scenarios, including both optimistic and pessimistic outlooks for oil stockpiles.The Australian Dollar (AUD) moves little against its major peers following the release of Australia’s S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global Australia Services PMI registered 46.3 in March, falling sharply from 52.8 in February. The contraction in activity was significant and marked the steepest decline since November 2023. Meanwhile, the Composite PMI declined to 46.6 in March from 52.4 in February, indicating a contraction in private sector business activity for the first time in eighteen months. Bank of Japan FAQs What is the Bank of Japan? The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%. What has been the Bank of Japan’s policy? The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance. How do Bank of Japan’s decisions influence the Japanese Yen? The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance. Why did the Bank of Japan decide to start unwinding its ultra-loose policy? A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.

Japan Coincident Index down to 116.3 in February from previous 117.9

Japan Leading Economic Index came in at 112.4, above expectations (112.3) in February

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – catches fresh bids during the Asian session on Tuesday and climbs back closer to a nearly four-week high set the previous day.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}WTI regains positive traction as fading hopes for a US-Iran ceasefire keep supply concerns in play.Traders also remain worried about a new phase of US military action following Tuesday’s deadline.The technical setup also favors bullish traders and backs the case for a further appreciating move.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – catches fresh bids during the Asian session on Tuesday and climbs back closer to a nearly four-week high set the previous day. The commodity currently trades just below mid-$105.00s, up over 1.5% for the day, ahead of US President Donald Trump's deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.In the meantime, Trump heightened a harsh rhetoric against Iran and threatened to target civilian infrastructure if the deadline of Tuesday, 8 PM Eastern Time (00:00 GMT Wednesday) passes without a deal. Iran, on the other hand, pushed back against pressure to reopen the strategic waterway and rejected a ceasefire proposal, instead insisting on a permanent end to the conflict. This raises the risk of a further escalation of conflict in the Middle East and acts as a tailwind for Crude Oil prices.From a technical perspective, the near-term bias is bullish as Crude Oil prices extend above the rising 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), confirming an established uptrend after last week’s rebound from the mid-$90s. Adding to this, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator holds in positive territory with the line above its signal, while the histogram stays slightly expanded, suggesting steady upside momentum rather than a blow-off move. Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 64 remains below overbought conditions, indicating buyers retain control with no immediate sign of exhaustion.Meanwhile, immediate resistance is located at $105.70, the recent peak, and a clear move above would reinforce the current bullish structure, opening the way toward $107.00. On the downside, initial support emerges at $103.50, the latest pullback low, ahead of a stronger floor at $101.50, where recent consolidation aligns closer to the rising 100-period EMA near $95.10 on a broader horizon. A break below $103.50 would expose $101.50, and then the $99.50 area as deeper downside levels within the trend.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)WTI 4-hour chart WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

Gold prices rose in India on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Gold prices rose in India on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.The price for Gold stood at 14,075.78 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 14,053.40 it cost on Monday.The price for Gold increased to INR 164,176.80 per tola from INR 163,916.10 per tola a day earlier.Unit measureGold Price in INR1 Gram14,075.7810 Grams140,757.50Tola164,176.80Troy Ounce437,806.10FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

The EUR/JPY cross holds steady near 184.35 during the early European session on Tuesday. However, the potential upside for the cross might be limited as ongoing tensions between the United States (US) and Iran could boost a safe-haven currency such as the Japanese Yen (JPY).

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Technical Analysis:In the daily chart, the near-term bias of EUR/JPY is mildly bullish as price holds above the rising 100-day exponential moving average near 182.10 and continues to respect a sequence of higher closes over recent sessions. The pair also trades comfortably above the Bollinger middle band around 183.70, indicating that dips are being absorbed within an ongoing uptrend rather than signalling a reversal. RSI at 55.22 stays above its midline and trends higher, confirming positive momentum but without overbought conditions.Initial support emerges at the Bollinger middle band around 183.70, followed by the psychological 183.00 area, while the 100-day EMA near 182.10 forms a deeper support level that underpins the broader bullish structure. On the topside, immediate resistance sits near the recent upper-Bollinger proximity around 185.80, with a sustained break opening room toward the 186.30 region. As long as EUR/JPY holds above 183.00 on a daily closing basis, the path of least resistance points to further tests of the 185.80–186.30 resistance band.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

USD/CNH gains ground after registering modest losses in the previous session, trading around 6.8800 during the Asian hours on Tuesday.

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The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) holds gains on increased safe-haven demand ahead of further developments on the Iran deadline by US President Donald Trump to open the Strait of Hormuz.President Trump warned that he could target Iranian power plants and bridges unless his demands are met by 8:00 PM Eastern Time. Trump said on Monday that the latest proposal for a US ceasefire with Iran is “not good enough" ahead of his deadline for Iran to either reopen the Strait of Hormuz. “It’s not good enough, but it’s a very significant step,” Trump said, adding, “They’re negotiating now, and they’ve made a very significant step. We’ll see what happens.”The Greenback receives support as Iran war surges energy prices, increasing fears of inflation revival and forcing the US Federal Reserve (Fed), to adopt a more hawkish stance. Traders are pricing in a delay of Fed rate cuts and could even raise borrowing costs later this year if inflationary pressures persist. Market participants are now looking ahead to the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes for clearer guidance on the central bank’s policy trajectory.The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set Tuesday’s USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8854, above the 6.8773 estimate, allowing the Yuan to trade within a +/-2% band around the midpoint.Meanwhile, traders' focus is shifting to Friday’s inflation data, with consumer prices expected to ease slightly, while producer prices are projected to post their first annual increase since 2022. Risk sentiment FAQs What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets? In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.

Asian equity markets opened mixed on Tuesday, tracking US stock index futures, as investors remain cautious ahead of US President Donald Trump's deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

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At the time of writing, Japan’s Nikkei 225, Thailand's SET Index, Indonesia's IDX Composite, and Malaysia's KLCI index are experiencing some downward pressure, while South Korea’s Kospi and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 are trading with modest gains.Trump heightened a harsh rhetoric against Iran and threatened to decimate civilian infrastructure if the deadline of Tuesday, 8 PM Eastern Time (00:00 GMT Wednesday) passes without a deal. Iran, on the other hand, pushed back against pressure to reopen the strategic waterway and rejected a ceasefire proposal, instead insisting on a permanent end to the conflict. This raises the risk of a further escalation of conflict in the Middle East and keep nervy investors ‌on the sidelines.Meanwhile, geopolitical uncertainties push Crude Oil prices to a fresh four-week top and back the case for a further move up, fueling inflationary concerns and bolstering bets for more hawkish central banks globally. Furthermore, traders are pricing in the possibility of a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) by the end of this year. This turns out to be another factor weighing on investors' sentiment and might keep a lid on any optimism in the markets, warranting caution for bulls.The market attention now shifts to the release of the latest US consumer inflation figures, due on Friday, which will include the Middle East conflict period and allow investors to assess the effects of surging Oil prices. The focus, however, will remain glued to geopolitical developments amid fading hopes for a last-minute agreement between the US and Iran. The failure to reach a deal would likely trigger a new phase of US military action and trigger a fresh wave of the risk-aversion trade. Asian stocks FAQs Which are the main stock market indices in Asia? Asia contributes around 70% of global economic growth and hosts several key stock market indices. Among the region’s developed economies, the Japanese Nikkei – which represents 225 companies on the Tokyo stock exchange – and the South Korean Kospi stand out. China has three important indices: the Hong Kong Hang Seng, the Shanghai Composite and the Shenzhen Composite. As a big emerging economy, Indian equities are also catching the attention of investors, who increasingly invest in companies in the Sensex and Nifty indices. What are the main sectors represented in Asian stock markets? Asia’s main economies are different, and each has specific sectors to pay attention to. Technology companies dominate in indices in Japan, South Korea, and increasingly, China. Financial services are leading stock markets such as Hong Kong or Singapore, considered key hubs for the sector. Manufacturing is also big in China and Japan, with a strong focus on automobile production or electronics. The growing middle class in countries like China and India is also giving more and more prominence to companies focused on retail and e-commerce. What factors drive Asian stock markets? Many different factors drive Asian stock market indices, but the main factor behind their performance is the aggregate results of the component companies revealed in their quarterly and annual earnings reports. The economic fundamentals of each country, as well as their central bank decisions or their government’s fiscal policies, are also important factors. More broadly, political stability, technological progress or the rule of law can also impact equity markets. The performance of US equity indices is also a factor as, more often than not, Asian markets take the lead from Wall Street stocks overnight. Finally, the broader risk sentiment in markets also plays a role as equities are considered a risky investment compared to other investment options such as fixed-income securities. What are the risks of investing in Asia stock markets? Investing in equities is risky by itself, but investing in Asian stocks comes along with region-specific risks to be taken into account. Asian countries have a wide range of political systems, from full democracies to dictatorships, so their political stability, transparency, rule of law or corporate governance requirements may diverge considerably. Geopolitical events such as trade disputes or territorial conflicts can lead to volatility in stock markets, as can natural disasters. Moreover, currency fluctuations can also have an impact on the valuation of Asian stock markets. This is particularly true in export-oriented economies, which tend to suffer from a stronger currency and benefit from a weaker one as their products become cheaper abroad.

Gold (XAU/USD) remains on the back foot during the Asian session on Tuesday, though it lacks follow-through selling and trades in the previous day's broader range.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold attracts some sellers as persistent geopolitical uncertainties revive USD demand.Hawkish central bank expectations further exert pressure on the non-yielding bullion.The broader setup favors the XAU/USD bears as Trump’s Hormuz deadline approaches.Gold (XAU/USD) remains on the back foot during the Asian session on Tuesday, though it lacks follow-through selling and trades in the previous day's broader range. Hopes for a last-minute agreement between the US and Iran are fading ahead of President Donald Trump’s Tuesday evening deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This benefits the US Dollar's (USD) global reserve currency status and exerts some pressure on the commodity. Apart from this, expectations for higher interest rates globally turn out to be another factor undermining the non-yielding yellow metal.Investors now seem convinced that the war-driven surge in energy prices would revive inflationary pressures and force major central banks, including the US Federal Reserve (Fed), to adopt a more hawkish stance. In fact, Crude Oil prices advanced to a four-week top after Trump heightened his rhetoric against Iran and threatened to decimate civilian infrastructure if the deadline passed without a deal. In response, the advisor to Iran's Parliament Speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, emphasized that Iran will not back down and said that Trump has about 20 hours to either surrender or his allies will return to the Paleolithic Age. This raises the risk of a further escalation of conflicts in the Middle East and remains supportive of elevated Crude Oil prices.Meanwhile, data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed on Monday that the Services PMI fell short of market expectations and eased to 54 in March from 56.1 in the previous month. pointing to some loss of momentum. Additional details of the report revealed that inflation pressures gathered traction, with the Prices Paid Index edging higher to 70.7 from 63. This comes on top of the upbeat US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report last Friday, which signaled a resilient labor market, and boosted bets that the Fed will hold rates higher for longer to combat inflation. The outlook, in turn, favors the USD bulls and suggests that the path of least resistance for the Gold price is to the downside. Traders now look to the US macro data for a fresh impetus.XAU/USD 4-hour chartGold bears might await a break below $4,600 before positioning for further lossesThe near-term bias is mildly bearish as the XAU/USD pair holds below the downward-sloping 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains negative with the line below the signal and hovering around the zero line, which suggests lingering downside pressure but without strong momentum. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 49 shows neutral momentum, aligning with a consolidative tone within a broader downside context.Immediate resistance emerges near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the March downfall, at $4,607, and a sustained break above would open the way toward the $4,763, or the 50.0% retracement level. As long as the Gold price trades below that latter barrier and the distant 200-period SMA, rallies are exposed to selling on strength. On the downside, initial support is seen around the recent $4,600 swing area, with a break lower exposing the 23.6% Fibo. The retracement level is the $4,416 as the next bearish target, where dip-buying interest could attempt to stabilize the previous metal.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

The EUR/USD pair ticks marginally lower around 1.1530 during the Asian trading session on Tuesday, but is broadly sideways, wobbling inside Monday’s trading range.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD edges lower to near 1.1530 while investors remain uncertain over Iran’s final decision to the US proposal.Iran calls on US President Trump to surrender or his allies will return to the Paleolithic Age.The US FOMC minutes of the March policy meeting will be released on Wednesday.The EUR/USD pair ticks marginally lower around 1.1530 during the Asian trading session on Tuesday, but is broadly sideways, wobbling inside Monday’s trading range. The major currency pair consolidates while investors await Iran’s final decision on the ceasefire proposal by the United States (US), which has a deadline of Tuesday, 08:00 PM ET.As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades slightly higher to near 100.10.Ahead of US President Donald Trump’s deadline, an advisor to Iran's Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has stated that Trump has about 20 hours to either surrender to Iran or his allies will return to the Paleolithic Age, emphasizing that Tehran will not back down. He called Trump’s threats “delusional” and added that they won’t make up for the “disgrace and humiliation” of the US in the region.On the domestic front, investors await the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the March policy meeting, which will be released on Wednesday. In the meeting, the Fed left interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.50%-3.75%.EUR/USD technical analysisEUR/USD edges down to near 1.1530 in the opening trade on Tuesday. Price sits marginally below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.1560, keeping the short-term tone mildly bearish as the pair struggles to reclaim that dynamic cap. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers in the mid-40s, showing negative but not extreme momentum, consistent with a market leaning lower inside a broader consolidation. A downward-sloping resistance trend line from around 1.1660 continues to limit rebounds, while the recent sequence of lower closes under that line confirms sellers retain the near-term advantage.Initial resistance is now located at the 20-day EMA around 1.1560, with a break above exposing the descending trend-line barrier near 1.1600 and then the March 10 high at 1.1666. On the downside, the rising support trend line coming from the 1.1410 region underpins the market around 1.1470, with a daily close below that level opening the way toward 1.1410 as the next support. As long as the pair trades below 1.1600, rallies are likely to meet selling interest, keeping focus on whether the 1.1470–1.1410 support band can contain the current bearish pressure.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

GBP/USD pares its recent gains from the previous day, trading around 1.3220 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) gains ground amid increased risk aversion, which could be attributed to the Middle East peace truce uncertainty.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}GBP/USD depreciates as the US Dollar strengthens on increased risk aversion linked to geopolitical tensions.President Trump said Iran’s ceasefire proposal was “not good enough” ahead of his Hormuz Strait deadline.BoE policymakers shifted to holding policy rates amid rising energy costs from the Middle East conflict.GBP/USD pares its recent gains from the previous day, trading around 1.3220 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) gains ground amid increased risk aversion, which could be attributed to the Middle East peace truce uncertainty.US President Donald Trump said on Monday that the latest proposal for a US ceasefire with Iran is “not good enough" ahead of his deadline for Iran to either reopen the Strait of Hormuz. “It’s not good enough, but it’s a very significant step,” Trump said, adding, “They’re negotiating now, and they’ve made a very significant step. We’ll see what happens.”Traders keep a close watch on US President Donald Trump's deadline concerning the Strait of Hormuz. Trump warned that he could target Iranian power plants and bridges unless his demands are met by 8 p.m. Eastern Time.The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed on Monday that the US Services PMI eased to 54.0 in March from 56.1 in February. The figure came in below expectations of 55.0, signaling a slight loss of momentum in the sector.The Bank of England (BoE) policymakers, including Sarah Breeden and Swati Dhingra, shifted from supporting cuts to holding rates amid rising energy costs linked to the Middle East conflict, while warning CPI inflation could rise to 3%–3.5% in the coming quarters. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, currently trades near 100.10 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday.

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The DXY gains ground as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East boost the safe-haven demand. The US Durable Goods Orders and ADP Employment reports will be published later on Tuesday. US President Donald Trump said on Monday that the latest proposal for a US ceasefire with Iran is “not good enough.” He threatened to target Iran's power plants and bridges if the strategic waterway is not reopened, setting a precise deadline of Tuesday, 8 p.m. Eastern Time (00:00 GMT Wednesday).The spokesperson for Iran’s top joint military command said that Trump’s threats will not make up for the “disgrace and humiliation” of the US in the region. Heightened uncertainty in the Middle East continues to boost the US Dollar against its rivals in the near term. Surging oil prices due to the Iran war have complicated the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate path. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stated that a rate hike could be appropriate if inflation remains stubbornly high. Data released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Monday showed that the Services PMI declined to 54.0 in March, versus 56.1 prior. This figure came in worse than the expectations at 55.0, signaling some loss of momentum in the sector. US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

The NZD/USD pair attracts some sellers to around 0.5700 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The US Dollar (USD) strengthens against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) as heightened uncertainty in the Middle East boosts demand for a safe-haven currency. 

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}NZD/USD softens to near 0.5700 in Tuesday’s Asian session. Trump insisted on Hormuz opening as he escalated Iran threats. The RBNZ rate decision will be in the spotlight later on Wednesday, with no change in rate expected. The NZD/USD pair attracts some sellers to around 0.5700 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The US Dollar (USD) strengthens against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) as heightened uncertainty in the Middle East boosts demand for a safe-haven currency. US President Donald Trump said on Monday that freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz would be part of any deal to end the Middle East war and escalated threats to attack key Iranian infrastructures if his terms aren’t met before a Tuesday deadline at 8 p.m. Eastern Time (00:00 GMT Wednesday), per Bloomberg. Iran has also retaliated by saying that it will respond to Trump's threats by ramping up its own attacks on energy infrastructure in the Gulf. Rising tensions in the Middle East could provide some support to the Greenback and act as a headwind for the pair in the near term. However, the downbeat US economic data might cap the upside for the USD. The US Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) declined to 54.0 in March from 56.1 in February, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed on Monday. This reading came in below the market consensus of 55.0. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its April meeting on Wednesday and restate its willingness to look through the initial inflationary impact of surging fuel prices that threaten a stuttering recovery. Governor Anna Breman will hold a press conference after the policy meeting. Markets and analysts anticipate a potential rate hike to 2.50% by the end of 2026.  RBNZ FAQs What is the Reserve Bank of New Zealand? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is the country’s central bank. Its economic objectives are achieving and maintaining price stability – achieved when inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), falls within the band of between 1% and 3% – and supporting maximum sustainable employment. How does the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s monetary policy influence the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decides the appropriate level of the Official Cash Rate (OCR) according to its objectives. When inflation is above target, the bank will attempt to tame it by raising its key OCR, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money and thus cooling the economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. Why does the Reserve Bank of New Zealand care about employment? Employment is important for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) because a tight labor market can fuel inflation. The RBNZ’s goal of “maximum sustainable employment” is defined as the highest use of labor resources that can be sustained over time without creating an acceleration in inflation. “When employment is at its maximum sustainable level, there will be low and stable inflation. However, if employment is above the maximum sustainable level for too long, it will eventually cause prices to rise more and more quickly, requiring the MPC to raise interest rates to keep inflation under control,” the bank says. What is Quantitative Easing (QE)? In extreme situations, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) can enact a monetary policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the RBNZ prints local currency and uses it to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions with the aim to increase the domestic money supply and spur economic activity. QE usually results in a weaker New Zealand Dollar (NZD). QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objectives of the central bank. The RBNZ used it during the Covid-19 pandemic.

USD/CAD edges higher after registering modest losses in the previous day, trading around 1.3930 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) gains ground amid increased risk aversion, which could be attributed to the Middle East peace truce uncertainty.

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The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) gains ground amid increased risk aversion, which could be attributed to the Middle East peace truce uncertainty.US President Donald Trump said on Monday that the latest proposal for a US ceasefire with Iran is “not good enough" ahead of his deadline for Iran to either reopen the Strait of Hormuz. “It’s not good enough, but it’s a very significant step,” Trump said, adding, “They’re negotiating now, and they’ve made a very significant step. We’ll see what happens.”The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported on Monday that the US Services PMI eased to 54.0 in March from 56.1 in February. The figure came in below expectations of 55.0, signaling a slight loss of momentum in the sector.However, the upside of the USD/CAD pair could be limited as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) may receive support from the surge in oil prices. It is worth noting that Canada is the largest crude oil exporter to the United States (US).West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price appreciates after little losses in the previous day, trading around $104.30 per barrel at the time of writing. However, crude oil prices gain support as traders remain cautious ahead of President Trump’s deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face major strikes on civilian infrastructure. Meanwhile, Iran warned it would retaliate against any US strikes on civilian infrastructure by intensifying attacks on Gulf energy assets, risking deeper global energy shortages. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

The advisor to Iran's Parliament Speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf,  said on Tuesday that US President Donald Trump has about 20 hours to either surrender to Iran, or his allies will return to the Paleolithic Age. Ghalibaf emphasized that Iran will not back down.

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The USD/JPY pair touches a one-week high during the Asian session on Tuesday, though it lacks follow-through and remains below the 160.00 psychological mark amid mixed fundamental cues.

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On a monthly basis, personal spending increased for the first time in three months, by 1.5%, reversing a part of the 2.5% fall in January but missing consensus estimates. This, in turn, undermines the Japanese Yen (JPY) and acts as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair.Meanwhile, the ongoing war in Iran has been fueling concerns that Japan's economy will come under substantial strain in the foreseeable future against the backdrop of its dependence on oil imports from the Middle East. This further tempers bets for an immediate rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and turns out to be another factor weighing on the JPY. However, speculations that authorities would step in to stem further weakness in the domestic currency help limit deeper losses for the JPY.On the geopolitical front, Iran rejected a potential ceasefire proposal to end its conflict with the US, while US President Donald Trump threatened stronger action if the country fails to reopen the critical Strait of Hormuz. This, along with expectations that elevated energy prices would rekindle inflationary pressures and force the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to adopt a more hawkish stance, benefits the US Dollar's (USD) global reserve currency status and further offers some support to the USD/JPY pair.Traders now look forward to the release of US Durable Goods Orders for some impetus later during the North American session. The focus, however, will remain glued to developments surrounding the US-Iran war amid fading de-escalation hopes and ahead of Trump's deadline. Meanwhile, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for the USD/JPY pair remains to the upside and backs the case for an extension of the move up from mid-February lows. Economic Indicator Overall Household Spending (YoY) The Overall Household Spending released by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications is an indicator that measures the total expenditure by households. The level of spending can be used as an indicator of consumer optimism. It is also considered as a measure of economic growth. A high reading is positive (or Bullish) for the JPY, while a low reading is negative (or bearish). Read more. Last release: Mon Apr 06, 2026 23:30 Frequency: Monthly Actual: -1.7% Consensus: -0.7% Previous: -1% Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan

Australia ANZ Job Advertisements: -3.1% (March) vs previous 3.2%

Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (YoY) climbed from previous 3.6% to 4.3% in March

New Zealand ANZ Commodity Price declined to 4.1% in March from previous 4.2%

On Tuesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 6.8854 compared to last Friday's fix of 6.8929 and 6.8773 Reuters estimate.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} On Tuesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 6.8854 compared to last Friday's fix of 6.8929 and 6.8773 Reuters estimate. PBOC FAQs What does the People's Bank of China do? The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market. Who owns the PBoC? The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts. What are the main policy tools used by the PBoC? Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi. Are private banks allowed in China? Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.

AUD/USD steadies after registering modest gains in the previous trading day, hovering around 0.6920 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair shows limited movement following the release of Australia’s S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data.

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The pair shows limited movement following the release of Australia’s S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data.The seasonally adjusted S&P Global Australia Services PMI registered 46.3 in March, falling sharply from 52.8 in February. The contraction in activity was significant and marked the steepest decline since November 2023. Meanwhile, the Composite PMI declined to 46.6 in March from 52.4 in February, indicating a contraction in private sector business activity for the first time in eighteen months.Andrew Harker, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, stated, “The S&P Global Australia Services PMI data for March illustrate the impact of the war in the Middle East on companies, and the findings are concerning. The effect on prices was also evident amid widespread reports of rising fuel costs, which drove inflation higher, particularly in the transport and storage sector.”Furthermore, the AUD/USD pair remains stable as traders keep a close watch on US President Donald Trump's deadline concerning the Strait of Hormuz. Trump warned that he could target Iranian power plants and bridges unless his demands are met by 8 p.m. Eastern Time.The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported on Monday that the Services PMI eased to 54.0 in March from 56.1 in February. The figure came in below expectations of 55.0, signaling a slight loss of momentum in the sector. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (MoM) increased to 1.3% in March from previous -0.2%

Silver (XAG/USD) extends its sideways consolidative price move for the second straight day and holds steady around the $73.00 mark during the Asian session on Tuesday.

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Traders now seem reluctant to place aggressive directional bets and opt to move to the sidelines ahead of US President Donald Trump's deadline for Iran to reopen the Straight of Hormuz amid fading hopes for a ceasefire.From a technical perspective, the near-term bias is mildly bearish as the XAG/USD holds below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, while that average continues to trend lower and cap rebounds. Furthermore, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator (12, 26, 9) recovers from recent negative readings but remains subdued, hinting at fading downside momentum rather than a clear upside shift.Adding to this, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 52 reinforces a neutral momentum backdrop, suggesting that sellers retain a slight advantage while directional conviction stays limited. Hence, any further strength beyond the 100-period SMA at $73.22 might confront resistance aligning with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the March downfall, at $74.69. A sustained break above that band would open the door toward the 50.0% retracement at $78.89.On the downside, initial support sits near $72.00, ahead of the 23.6% retracement at $69.50, which marks the first notable floor within the current corrective phase. A clear drop through $69.50 would expose the broader support area toward $61.11, where the measured advance began.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)XAG/USD 4-hour chart Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $103.60 during the early Asian trading hours on Tuesday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}WTI price drifts higher to near $103.60 in Tuesday’s early Asian session.Trump doubled down on his threat to destroy Iran’s civilian infrastructure if Tehran does not agree to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.The eight members of OPEC+ on Sunday agreed to increase production by 206,000 bpd in May. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $103.60 during the early Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The WTI price edges higher as traders are on edge ahead of US President Donald Trump's deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face major attacks on its civilian infrastructure.Trump said on Monday that the latest proposal for a US ceasefire with Iran is “not good enough" ahead of his deadline for Iran to either reopen the Strait of Hormuz. “It’s not good enough, but it’s a very significant step,” Trump said, adding, “They’re negotiating now, and they’ve made a very significant step. We’ll see what happens.”Trump added that Iran could be “taken out in one night” and power plants would be rendered "burning, exploding and never to be used again.” Iran has also retaliated by saying that it will respond to the US President's threats by ramping up its own attacks on energy infrastructure in the Gulf. Severe supply disruptions in the Middle East and a high geopolitical risk premium could boost the WTI price in the near term. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) on Sunday agreed to increase production by 206,000 barrels per day (bpd) in May, though it is unclear how the oil will reach the global market with the Strait still closed.Traders brace for the release of the American Petroleum Institute (API) report, which will be published later on Tuesday. A larger-than-expected crude oil inventory draw indicates stronger demand and could lift the WTI price, while a bigger build than estimated signals weaker demand or excess supply, which might weigh on the WTI price. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

The EUR/USD pair flat lines around 1.1540 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The major pair steadies as traders monitor US President Donald Trump's deadline regarding the Strait of Hormuz. The US Durable Goods Orders and ADP Employment reports are due later on Tuesday. 

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The major pair steadies as traders monitor US President Donald Trump's deadline regarding the Strait of Hormuz. The US Durable Goods Orders and ADP Employment reports are due later on Tuesday. US President Donald Trump said on Monday that the latest proposal for a US ceasefire with Iran is “not good enough.” He threatened to target Iran's power plants and bridges on Tuesday if the strategic waterway is not reopened, setting a precise deadline of 8 p.m. Eastern Time (00:00 GMT Wednesday).Traders take stock of the escalating Iran war, with all eyes on the latest deadline ‌from Trump to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Any signs of escalating tensions could boost a safe-haven currency such as the US Dollar (USD) and create a headwind for the major pair. Data released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Monday showed that the Services PMI eased to 54.0 in March from 56.1 in February. This reading came in weaker than the expectations of 55.0 and signaled some loss of momentum in the sector.A hawkish tone from the European Central Bank (ECB) could support the shared currency. Markets are now pricing in 2–3 interest rate hikes for 2026 due to surging energy-driven inflation, a significant shift from previous expectations of holding rates. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Ireland AIB Services PMI: 50.7 (March) vs previous 51.8

Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Tuesday that G7 finance ministers and central bankers agreed that fluctuating oil prices cause high volatility in financial and foreign exchange markets.

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G7 finance ministers and central bankers agreed that fluctuating oil prices cause high volatility in financial and foreign exchange markets.

Have been in close contact with G7 counterparts.

Will keep delivering messages.

Have not estimated how much it would cost to continue subsidies to keep gasoline prices in check. 

No issues regarding amount of oil stock; question is whether we could support Southeast Asia partners. 

Policymakers are checking all scenarios including optimistic and pessimistic ones in terms of oil stockpile. Market reactionAt the time of writing, the USD/JPY pair is up 0.03% on the day at 159.70. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

Japan JP Foreign Reserves declined to $1B in March from previous $1410.7B

Japan Overall Household Spending (YoY) below forecasts (-0.7%) in February: Actual (-1.7%)

US President Donald Trump said that the latest proposal for a US ceasefire with Iran is “not good enough,” ahead of his deadline for Iran to either reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face major attacks on its civilian infrastructure, CNBC reported on Monday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} US President Donald Trump said that the latest proposal for a US ceasefire with Iran is “not good enough,” ahead of his deadline for Iran to either reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face major attacks on its civilian infrastructure, CNBC reported on Monday.During a press conference at the White House, Trump reiterated his threats to attack Iran’s energy and transportation infrastructure Tuesday at 8 p.m. ET if the strait is not reopened.Iran rejected the proposal and called for a permanent end to the war, according to Iranian state-run media.The spokesperson for Iran’s top joint military command has called Trump’s threats “delusional,” adding that the threats will not make up for the “disgrace and humiliation” of the US in the region.Market reactionAt the time of press, the WTI price is down 0.21% on the day at $103.65. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

Gold price (XAU/USD) recovers to near $4,660 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The precious metal drifts higher as traders watch US President Donald Trump's Tuesday deadline for military strikes on Iranian infrastructure following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

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The precious metal drifts higher as traders watch US President Donald Trump's Tuesday deadline for military strikes on Iranian infrastructure following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.Trump said on Monday that the latest proposal for a U.S. ceasefire with Iran is “not good enough,” ahead of his fast-approaching deadline for Iran to either reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face major attacks on its civilian infrastructure.The US President reiterated his threats to attack Iran’s energy and transportation infrastructure on Tuesday at 8 p.m. ET if the strait is not reopened. However, rising crude oil prices due to supply concerns linked to the Strait of Hormuz could increase inflation concerns. This could shift Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts expectations and weigh on the non-yielding assets. Gold is often used amid geopolitical uncertainty but does not yield interest, making it less attractive when interest rates are high.Futures pointed to virtually no chance of a move at the April 28-29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and a 77.5% probability the Fed will stay on hold through the end of the year, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

GBP/JPY consolidates above the 211.00 figure yet remains unable to crack key resistance at the 211.50 psychological level due to an improvement in risk appetite, along with the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 211.26 acting as a magnet.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}GBP/JPY capped below 211.50 despite improving risk sentiment backdrop.RSI near neutral suggests momentum remains indecisive in near term.Break above 211.50 targets 212.00 and 213.31 resistance levels.GBP/JPY consolidates above the 211.00 figure yet remains unable to crack key resistance at the 211.50 psychological level due to an improvement in risk appetite, along with the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 211.26 acting as a magnet. Fears that Japanese authorities might intervene in the FX market.GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Technical OutlookThe technical picture shows the GBP/JPY is set to remain sideways unless bulls surpass the 211.50 psychological figure, seen as key resistance before clearing the path to test higher prices. The pair has subsequently tested the previously mentioned level, and a breach of it would pave the way for a challenge of the 20-day SMA at 211.90, ahead of 212.00. On further strength, buyers would target the March 26 high at 213.31, ahead of 214.00.Conversely, if the pair slips below the 50-day SMA, a test of 211.00 is on the cards. On further weakness, the next support level would be a key trendline at around 210.50-65. A decisive break will expose the 100-day SMA at 210.31.Momentum-wise, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reveals that sellers are in charge, but the last two bullish days pushed the RSI near its neutral level.GBP/JPY Price Chart — DailyGBP/JPY Daily Chart Japanese Yen Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies this week. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.01% 0.07% -0.02% -0.01% 0.00% 0.03% -0.02% EUR 0.01% 0.06% 0.00% 0.00% 0.03% -0.02% -0.00% GBP -0.07% -0.06% -0.04% -0.04% -0.04% -0.07% -0.06% JPY 0.02% 0.00% 0.04% -0.00% 0.02% 0.07% 0.04% CAD 0.01% -0.00% 0.04% 0.00% 0.03% 0.07% -0.01% AUD -0.01% -0.03% 0.04% -0.02% -0.03% -0.03% -0.04% NZD -0.03% 0.02% 0.07% -0.07% -0.07% 0.03% 0.05% CHF 0.02% 0.00% 0.06% -0.04% 0.01% 0.04% -0.05% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

Australia S&P Global Services PMI below forecasts (46.6) in March: Actual (46.3)

Australia S&P Global Composite PMI came in at 46.6, below expectations (47) in March

GBP/USD traded flat on Monday, settling close to 1.3240 in a thin session with the UK on Easter Monday holiday. The pair bounced modestly from last week's low near 1.3180, which marked the weakest level since mid-March, but the recovery has so far been shallow.

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The pair bounced modestly from last week's low near 1.3180, which marked the weakest level since mid-March, but the recovery has so far been shallow. Price remains in a broader downtrend from the late January high around 1.3870, with sellers capping rallies toward the 1.3300 area in recent sessions.On the Pound Sterling side, the Bank of England (BoE) voted unanimously to hold the Bank Rate at 3.75% at its March meeting, a notable shift from the narrow 5 to 4 split in February. Members who had previously supported cuts, including Sarah Breeden and Swati Dhingra, moved to a hold in response to rising energy costs tied to the Middle East conflict. The BoE warned that Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation is likely to climb to between 3% and 3.5% over the coming quarters, while Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth remains stalled and unemployment has risen to a 10-year high of 5.2%. Tuesday's S&P Global Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for March, with a consensus of 51.2, is the next key release for the Pound.On the US Dollar side, the ISM Services PMI fell to 54 in March from 56.1 in February, undershooting the 55 consensus. The employment sub-index dropped to 45.2, its lowest since December 2023, while prices paid surged to 70.7, the highest since October 2022. The combination of weakening payrolls and rising input costs reinforced stagflation concerns tied to the Iran conflict and elevated energy prices. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is holding the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%, with the Wednesday release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes and Thursday's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index the next major catalysts for the US Dollar.GBP/USD 5-minute chartTechnical AnalysisIn the 5-minute chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3236. The near-term bias is mildly bullish as price holds a steady grind above the 200-period EMA near 1.3233, keeping the intraday trend underpinned despite the tight range. The latest Stochastic RSI reading has eased back toward the lower half of its scale after failing to extend earlier over the 70 area, indicating fading upside momentum but not an outright bearish reversal while spot remains above the long-term intraday average.Initial support emerges at 1.3233, where the 200-period EMA aligns with the latest cluster of minor pullbacks, followed by 1.3230 as deeper intraday downside risk if that average fails. A break below 1.3230 would expose 1.3220 as the next support area. On the topside, immediate resistance sits at 1.3240, the recent intraday high printed during the momentum peak, with a break there opening room toward 1.3250 as the next upside target while the short-term bullish bias persists.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

USD/JPY traded flat on Monday, edging up less than 0.1% to settle around 159.60 in a quiet session ahead of the US data release.

The ISM Services PMI fell to 54 in March, missing consensus, as employment dropped to its lowest since late 2023.Markets are pricing about a 70% chance the BoJ raises rates to 1.00% at the April 27 to 28 meeting.Monday's ISM services print showed rising prices paid alongside a sharp drop in employment, fueling stagflation concerns.USD/JPY continues to trade in a roughly 150-pip range between 158.50 and 160.00, with neither side able to force a decisive break.USD/JPY traded flat on Monday, edging up less than 0.1% to settle around 159.60 in a quiet session ahead of the US data release. The pair has been consolidating in a roughly 150-pip band between 158.50 and 160.00 since early April, with the week's high near 160.30 capping upside attempts and buyers stepping in on dips toward the lower boundary. Monday's candle carried a narrow body and limited range, reflecting indecision as traders awaited the afternoon's Institute for Supply Management (ISM) services data.On the Japanese Yen side, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) held rates at 0.75% at its March meeting by an 8 to 1 vote, with board member Hajime Takata dissenting in favor of a hike to 1.00%. Markets are now pricing about a 70% probability of a 25 basis point increase at the April 27 to 28 meeting, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) last week urging the BoJ to press ahead with tightening despite the geopolitical backdrop. New board member Toichiro Asada signaled a cautious, data-driven approach at his first briefing, while Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama flagged rising speculative activity in currency and crude oil markets.On the US Dollar side, the ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to 54 in March from 56.1 in February, undershooting the 55 consensus. The headline masked a sharper deterioration underneath: the employment sub-index dropped to 45.2, its lowest since December 2023, while prices paid surged to 70.7, the highest reading since October 2022. New orders rose to 60.6, the strongest in 17 months, but the combination of rising input costs and falling payrolls reinforced stagflation concerns tied to the conflict with Iran and elevated energy prices. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is holding the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%, with Chair Jerome Powell recently noting that inflation is not falling as quickly as hoped.USD/JPY 5-minute chart
Technical Analysis:In the 5-minute chart, USD/JPY trades at 159.63. Momentum has cooled from earlier overbought conditions, with the Stochastic RSI sliding from above 70 toward the lower half of its range, signaling fading upside pressure in the very near term. Price holds just above the 200-period exponential moving average around 159.63, keeping the micro-trend marginally bullish while warning that a clean break below this dynamic level could shift the bias to the downside. The overall picture points to a neutral-to-bearish bias as buyers struggle to extend gains despite trading on top of key intraday trend support.Immediate support is located at the 200-period EMA near 159.63, followed by the recent intraday lows around 159.58 and then 159.50 if selling extends. On the topside, initial resistance comes in at the 159.73–159.76 area, where prior highs align with the day’s open, and a sustained move above this band would be needed to revive a clearer bullish tone toward 159.90 next. As long as price oscillates around the 200-period average and Stochastic RSI stays subdued, range-bound trading with a slight downside risk remains the dominant intraday scenario.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

The Australian Dollar rallied by over 0.50% amid an improvement in risk appetite, though gains were capped by Iran’s rejection of a ceasefire deal, pushing traders to trim long positions in the AUD/USD pair. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 0.6918, still above its opening price.

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At the time of writing, the pair trades at 0.6918, still above its opening price.Aussie gains as risk mood lifts, but ceasefire doubts cap upsideWall Street ended Monday’s session in the green, though beneath daily highs on news that the US is preparing for strikes on Iran, according to the Wall Street Journal. Although Trump reported that talks with Iran are “going well,” he insisted that free flow through the Strait of Hormuz is a must.In the meantime, the Aussie Dollar retreated from daily highs amid uncertainty in the Middle East, as mixed headlines across most newswires kept investors on their toes.US business activity in the services sector fell short of economists' estimates for a 54.9 slowdown. The ISM Services PMI in March dipped from 56.1 to 54.0, while the Prices Paid sub-component soared sharply to its highest level since 2022, coming at 70.7 due to higher petrol pricesAfter the data and Iran’s rejection of the ceasefire deal, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the Greenback against six currencies, edged past 100.00, trimming earlier losses. Nevertheless, as traders digested the news, the DXY reversed its course, aiming towards daily lows, down 0.20% at 99.98.In Australia, trading activities resume on April 7, following the four-day long weekend. The S&P Global Services PMI in March is expected to remain steady at 46.6, as in February, an indication that the services sector remains in contractionary territory.Other data is expected, including the TD-MI inflation gauge from the Melbourne Institute, which provides a monthly measure of inflation in the country.A poll by the Australian Financial Review (AFR) revealed that most of the 38 economists surveyed expected the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to raise interest rates to 4.35%, the third time this year. The poll revealed that “Westpac and Judo Bank are forecasting three more increases by June next year, taking the cash rate to its highest since the global financial crisis.”RBA interest rate probabilitiesSource: Prime Market TerminalIn the US, a busy calendar will keep traders on edge, with key releases including Durable Goods Orders, Fed speakers, FOMC minutes, GDP data, Jobless Claims, and inflation prints.AUD/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlookIn the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.6919. The near-term bias is mildly bullish as spot holds above the clustered rising support lines that have been underpinning the advance from the 0.67 area, while price also trades above the grouped simple moving averages around 0.70, which now trail the move and reinforce the broader uptrend. RSI at 44 stays below the midline but has stabilised after a prior decline, suggesting fading downside momentum rather than outright bearish pressure, consistent with a corrective phase within a still-positive daily structure.Initial support emerges at the recent low near 0.6850, reinforced by the latest upward-sloping trend-line zone drawn from 0.6897, with a break there exposing deeper pullback potential toward 0.6800. On the upside, the first resistance is aligned with last week’s reaction high around 0.7020, followed by the 0.7075/0.7120 band, where prior swing highs converge and the rising average cluster begins to cap, and a sustained close above this band would reopen the path toward the mid-0.71s.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Australian Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.23% -0.30% -0.03% -0.26% -0.37% -0.45% -0.24% EUR 0.23% -0.05% 0.18% -0.02% -0.16% -0.24% -0.03% GBP 0.30% 0.05% 0.23% 0.00% -0.10% -0.20% 0.04% JPY 0.03% -0.18% -0.23% -0.21% -0.35% -0.44% -0.22% CAD 0.26% 0.02% -0.00% 0.21% -0.11% -0.21% 0.01% AUD 0.37% 0.16% 0.10% 0.35% 0.11% -0.10% 0.13% NZD 0.45% 0.24% 0.20% 0.44% 0.21% 0.10% 0.24% CHF 0.24% 0.03% -0.04% 0.22% -0.01% -0.13% -0.24% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).

The NZD/USD pair trades with a bullish tone near the 0.5710 region on Tuesday, as the US Dollar (USD) softens amid improving risk sentiment driven by ceasefire hopes in the Middle East.

NZD/USD rises near 0.5710 as the US Dollar weakens on easing geopolitical tensions.Hopes of a ceasefire offset US President Donald Trump’s rhetoric, boosting risk-sensitive currencies.Focus shifts to the RBNZ decision and the upcoming US inflation data.The NZD/USD pair trades with a bullish tone near the 0.5710 region on Tuesday, as the US Dollar (USD) softens amid improving risk sentiment driven by ceasefire hopes in the Middle East.The Greenback is losing momentum as markets shift away from safe-haven positioning. Despite strong rhetoric from Donald Trump regarding the Strait of Hormuz, investors are focusing more on emerging diplomatic efforts and the possibility of de-escalation, which is supporting risk-sensitive currencies like the New Zealand Dollar (NZD).Additionally, a modest pullback in US yields, along with softer-than-expected ISM Services data—particularly a decline in employment—has put pressure on the USD. While inflation components, such as Prices Paid, remain elevated, markets are increasingly concerned that growth may be slowing, which complicates the Federal Reserve's (Fed) outlook.On the New Zealand side, the NZD is finding support ahead of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) policy decision later this week. Markets widely expect the central bank to maintain current interest rates, but any shift in tone or guidance could impact the Kiwi's next move. Traders are also keeping an eye on global risk appetite, considering New Zealand's sensitivity to external demand.
Short-term technical analysis:On the 4-hour chart, NZD/USD trades at 0.5713. The near-term bias is mildly bearish as the pair holds below the falling 20-period and 100-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), which cap the upside near 0.5715 and 0.5785 respectively. The declining structure of both averages suggests sellers retain control after a persistent grind lower from the 0.58 area. RSI at 46 stays below the 50 midline, aligning with subdued bullish momentum rather than an oversold condition and reinforcing the current downside skew.Immediate resistance emerges at 0.5721, followed by 0.5730, where short-term supply converges with the nearby 20-period SMA and could attract fresh selling on intraday rebounds. A sustained break above 0.5730 would open the way to the 0.5800 barrier,. On the downside, initial support is seen at 0.5712, with a break exposing 0.5706; a clear move below this band would confirm renewed bearish pressure and risk an extension of the broader decline.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
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