Forex News Timeline

11:30 South Africa Producer Price Index (MoM) dipped from previous 0.5% to 0.4% in February
South Africa Producer Price Index (MoM) dipped from previous 0.5% to 0.4% in February

11:30 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Thursday, according to FXStreet data.

11:30 South Africa Producer Price Index (YoY): 1% (February) vs previous 1.1%
South Africa Producer Price Index (YoY): 1% (February) vs previous 1.1%

11:22 UK’s Reeves: UK is in intensive tariff talks with the Trump administration
British Finance Minister Rachel Reeves said on Thursday that “the UK is in intensive tariff talks with the Trump administration.”

British Finance Minister Rachel Reeves said on Thursday that “the UK is in intensive tariff talks with the Trump administration.”Additional quotes"I believe in free and open trade.""I want UK-US trade flows to continue to be strong.""Trade frictions will make it harder to grow the economy.""We don't want to see additional tariffs.""I would like to see tariffs between countries fall."Market reactionGBP/USD was last seen trading at 1.2915, up 0.21% on the day.

11:10 NZD/USD rises to near 0.5750 as China’s Ding pledges support for private sector growth
NZD/USD is trading around 0.5740 during European hours on Thursday, recovering from losses in the previous session.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}NZD/USD strengthens as China’s Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang announces plans for more proactive macroeconomic policies this year.President Trump’s 25% auto tariff sparks fears of a broader trade war, potentially impacting US economic growth.The US Dollar struggles as Treasury yields decline, with the 2-year and 10-year yields at 4.01% and 4.37%, respectively.NZD/USD is trading around 0.5740 during European hours on Thursday, recovering from losses in the previous session. The pair is gaining as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) strengthens, possibly driven by the comments from China’s Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang, who stated that China will implement more proactive macroeconomic policies this year. Given the close trade ties between China and New Zealand, any economic shifts in China can significantly impact New Zealand’s markets. China’s Vice Premier Ding also emphasized China's commitment to fostering private sector growth, addressing concerns of foreign businesses, and encouraging foreign investment. These statements have provided a boost to risk sentiment, benefiting the NZD. Additionally, the US Dollar (USD) is retreating after US President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on imported cars and light trucks, set to take effect on April 2. This move, alongside other planned reciprocal tariffs, has raised concerns over a broader trade war that could weigh on economic growth. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is pulling back from recent gains and is trading around 104.40. The Greenback faces additional pressure as US Treasury yields decline, with the 2-year and 10-year yields at 4.01% and 4.37%, respectively. Market participants are now awaiting key US economic data scheduled for release later today, including weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the final Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized report. Additionally, Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report—the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure—will offer further insights into the central bank’s policy outlook. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

11:06 USD/CAD struggles to find acceptance above 1.4300 amid modest USD weakness
The USD/CAD pair builds on the previous day's modest bounce from the 1.4235 area, or over a one-month low, and gains some follow-through positive traction on Thursday.

11:02 Italy Trade Balance non-EU climbed from previous €0.252B to €4.707B in February
Italy Trade Balance non-EU climbed from previous €0.252B to €4.707B in February

11:01 Eurozone M3 Money Supply (3m) increased to 3.8% in February from previous 3.6%
Eurozone M3 Money Supply (3m) increased to 3.8% in February from previous 3.6%

11:00 Austria Purchasing Manager Index: 46.9 (March) vs 46.7
Austria Purchasing Manager Index: 46.9 (March) vs 46.7

11:00 Eurozone Private Loans (YoY) above expectations (1.4%) in February: Actual (1.5%)
Eurozone Private Loans (YoY) above expectations (1.4%) in February: Actual (1.5%)

11:00 Eurozone M3 Money Supply (YoY) above expectations (3.8%) in February: Actual (4%)
Eurozone M3 Money Supply (YoY) above expectations (3.8%) in February: Actual (4%)

10:40 WTI falls toward $69.00 as traders assess the impact of Trump auto tariffs
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude Oil price halts its three-day rally, trading around $69.20 per barrel during European hours on Thursday.

10:34 Crude oil price today: WTI price bearish at European opening
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Thursday, early in the European session.

10:24 Palladium price today: Rare metals mixed at the start of the European session
Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade mixed at the beginning of Thursday, according to FXStreet data.

10:09 Pound Sterling bounces back against US Dollar despite Trump’s tariffs on automobiles
The Pound Sterling (GBP) recovers strongly to near 1.2925 against the US Dollar (USD) during European trading hours on Thursday.

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The GBP/USD pair bounces back after a slight corrective move in the last five trading days from the four-month high of around 1.3000. The Cable rebounds as the US Dollar retraces even though United States (US) President Donald Trump has imposed 25% tariffs on all imports of automobiles and their components. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, corrects to near 104.30 from a three-week high around 104.70 posted earlier in the day. Theoretically, fresh tariffs by US President Trump should have dampened investors’ risk appetite, but market participants expect that higher levies will also impact US economic growth significantly. The impact of higher tariffs will be borne by US importers, who will pass them on to consumers. Such a scenario will diminish the purchasing power of households. On the monetary policy front, Minneapolis Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank President Neel Kashkari has guided that the central bank should keep interest rates in the current range of 4.25%-4.50%. "Policy uncertainty is complicating the Fed's job," Kashkari said at the Detroit Lakes Chamber Economic Summit on Wednesday. Kashkari added that a potential resurgence in inflation due to Trump’s policies would boost the need for higher interest rates, while its consequences on economic growth will support monetary policy easing. Together, those forces are "kind of a wash," Kashkari added. Going forward, investors will focus on the US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) data for February, which will be released on Friday. The impact of the inflation data is expected to be limited on the interest rate outlook as the fate of the Fed’s monetary policy is tied to the outcome of Trump’s economic policies. Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling rises against its peers The Pound Sterling trades higher against its major peers on Thursday after recovering most of Wednesday’s losses driven by a softer-than-expected United Kingdom (UK) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February and a reduction in welfare benefits announced by Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves in the Spring Statement. The UK CPI report showed that inflationary pressures rose at a slower-than-expected pace due to moderate growth in clothing and footwear prices. The headline and the core CPI grew by 2.8% and 3.5% year-over-year, respectively. The Service inflation, which is closely tracked by Bank of England (BoE) officials, rose steadily by 5%. Cooling inflation bodes poorly for the Pound Sterling as it can drive BoE dovish bets. As promised, Chancellor Reeves didn’t announce any tax raise, reiterated fiscal rules as non-negotiable, and confirmed a £2.2bn increase in defence spending amid uncertainty surrounding the Ukraine war. Reeves said that she would rebuild a nearly 10 billion-pound fiscal buffer and conveyed that amendments in welfare spending would save £4.8 billion. Reeves confirmed a significant downward revision in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate for the year and said that the Office for Business Responsibility (OBR) has halved growth forecasts to 1%. However, the fiscal watchdog raised growth forecasts for the next four years. Going forward, investors will focus on the UK Q4 GDP data and the Retail Sales data for February, which will be published on Friday. Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling finds support near 20-day EMA The Pound Sterling rebounds against the US Dollar after finding buying interest near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 1.2873. The GBP/USD pair attempts to stabilize around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, plotted from late-September high to mid-January low, at 1.2930. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) cools down to near 60.00 after turning overbought above 70.00. Should a fresh bullish momentum come into action if the RSI resumes the upside journey after holding above 60.00. Looking down, the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1.2770 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1.2615 will act as key support zones for the pair. On the upside, the October 15 high of 1.3100 will act as a key resistance zone. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

10:00 Spain Retail Sales (YoY) rose from previous 2.2% to 3.6% in February
Spain Retail Sales (YoY) rose from previous 2.2% to 3.6% in February

09:48 EUR/INR today: Indian Rupee cross rates edge higher at the start of the European session
Indian Rupee (INR) crosses trade on the front foot at the beginning of Thursday, according to FXStreet data.

09:46 AUD/JPY hovers near 95.00, downside risks appear amid increased risk aversion
AUD/JPY holds its ground after registering gains in the previous session, trading around 94.90 during early European hours on Thursday.

09:20 Forex Today: US Dollar retreats as markets assess tariff headlines, await mid-tier data releases
Here is what you need to know on Thursday, March 27:

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In the second half of the day, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis will announce its final revision to fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product data. The economic calendar will also feature weekly Initial Jobless Claims and February Pending Home Sales data from the US. US Dollar PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.45% -0.01% 0.71% -0.57% -0.64% -0.20% 0.10% EUR -0.45% -0.57% -0.24% -0.98% -1.10% -0.61% -0.31% GBP 0.00% 0.57% 0.72% -1.04% -0.57% -0.04% 0.15% JPY -0.71% 0.24% -0.72% -1.26% -1.35% -0.88% -0.61% CAD 0.57% 0.98% 1.04% 1.26% -0.01% 0.37% 0.67% AUD 0.64% 1.10% 0.57% 1.35% 0.00% 0.51% 0.81% NZD 0.20% 0.61% 0.04% 0.88% -0.37% -0.51% 0.37% CHF -0.10% 0.31% -0.15% 0.61% -0.67% -0.81% -0.37% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). US President Donald Trump announced on Wednesday that they are planning to impose a 25% tariff on all car imports to the US. Trump said that auto tariffs will be permanent and go into effect on April 2. Later in the day, Reuters reported that the Trump administration could allow up to a one-month reprieve for auto part imports. In a social media post early Wednesday, Trump said that they will impose large scale tariffs, "far larger than currently planned," on Canada and the European Union if they do economic harm to the US. Related news US President Trump threatens large scale tariffs on EU, Canada if they do economic harm to the US US President Donald Trump allows up to one-month tariff exemption for auto parts imports Fed’s Kashkari: Policy uncertainty is complicating the Fed’s job After reaching its highest level in two weeks near 104.70, the USD Index retreats on Thursday and fluctuates below 104.50. Meanwhile, US stock index futures trade mixed after Wall Street's main indexes closed in negative territory on Wednesday.USD/JPY registered gains on Wednesday and erased Tuesday's losses. The pair holds steady at around 150.50 in the European morning on Thursday. Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said on Thursday that they have once again, asked the US to exempt Japan from auto tariffs.EUR/USD dropped to its lowest level in two weeks near 1.0730 in the Asian session on Thursday but managed to stage a rebound. The pair was last seen trading marginally higher on the day at around 1.0770. Later in the day, several European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers, including President Christine Lagarde, will be delivering speeches.Pressured by soft inflation data and Spring Budget announcement, GBP/USD lost nearly 0.5% on Wednesday. The pair holds its ground early Thursday and trades above 1.2900.Gold failed to make a decisive move in either direction and closed the day virtually unchanged on Wednesday. XAU/USD edges higher in the European morning and trades above $3,030. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.

09:20 ECB’s Wunsch: A rate cut pause in April should be on the table
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Pierre Wunsch said on Thursday that “a rate cut pause in April should be on the table.”

09:03 PBOC’s Zou: China's monetary policy is supportive and relatively loose
People’s Bank of China (PBOC) Deputy Governor Zou Lan said on Thursday that “China's monetary policy is supportive and relatively loose.”

09:01 EUR/GBP holds below 0.8350 ahead of ECB’s Lagarde speech
The EUR/GBP cross remains on the defensive around 0.8335 during the early European session on Thursday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/GBP weakens to near 0.8335 in Thursday’s early European session. Traders expect the ECB to deliver rate cuts twice more to around 2% by December.Odds of a BoE rate cut strengthen as UK inflation eased to 2.8%. The EUR/GBP cross remains on the defensive around 0.8335 during the early European session on Thursday. The Euro (EUR) weakens against the Pound Sterling (GBP) amid the uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump's tariff policies and growing expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) would cut interest rates again. Traders will take more cues from the ECB's President Lagarde speech later on Thursday.

The European Union's trade commissioner, Maros Sefcovic, met with Trump's top trade officials on Tuesday to try to avoid steep US tariffs on EU goods next week, but the outcome was unclear. Investors will closely monitor the developments surrounding Trump’s trade policies. The easing fears of trade tensions could help limit the EUR’s losses.

According to LSEG data, traders expect the ECB to cut rates twice more to around 2% by December. They then price a small chance of a rate hike by September 2026. ECB Governing Council Francois Villeroy de Galhau said late Tuesday that there is still room to lower interest rates further, and the 2.5% deposit rate could fall to 2% by the end of the summer.

The UK inflation slowed more than expected in February, boosting the odds of the Bank of England (BoE) cutting interest rates in May. This, in turn, might drag the GBP lower and create a tailwind for the cross. The headline CPI rose 2.8% YoY in February, compared to 3.0% in January, the Office for National Statistics reported Wednesday. This reading came in softer than the 2.9% expected. The Core CPI, which excludes the volatile prices of food and energy, climbed 3.5% YoY in February versus 3.7% prior, below the market consensus of 3.6%. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

09:00 Turkey Trade Balance declined to -7.77B in February from previous -7.54B
Turkey Trade Balance declined to -7.77B in February from previous -7.54B

08:14 ECB’s Kazaks: We can probably keep cutting if baseline holds
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Martins Kazaks commented on the Bank’s easing trajectory.

European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Martins Kazaks commented on the Bank’s easing trajectory.Key quotes“We can probably keep cutting if baseline holds.”“But uncertainty is really high and geopolitics is the main cause of that.”Market reactionThe Euro is unfazed by these comments as EUR/USD gains 0.18% on the day to trade near 1.0770, as of writing.

08:06 US President Trump threatens large scale tariffs on EU, Canada if they do economic harm to the US
In his latest post on the Truth Social platform on Thursday, US President Donald Trump threatened, "if the European Union works with Canada in order to do economic harm to the USA, large scale Tariffs, far larger than currently planned, will be placed on them both in order to protect the best friend

07:38 USD/CHF weakens below 0.8850 on tariff uncertainty
The USD/CHF pair trades on a softer note around 0.8825 during the early European session on Thursday.

07:37 US Dollar Index Price Forecast: Moves below 104.50 toward nine-day EMA support
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, has given up its recent gains from the previous session, hovering near 104.30 during Thursday's Asian trading hours.

07:17 Gold price refreshes weekly top; seems poised to appreciate further amid trade jitters
Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts fresh buyers following the previous day's flat close and climbs to a fresh weekly high, around the $3,038-3,039 region during the Asian session on Thursday.

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Traders look to Thursday’s US macro releases for some impetus ahead of the US PCE data on Friday.Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts fresh buyers following the previous day's flat close and climbs to a fresh weekly high, around the $3,038-3,039 region during the Asian session on Thursday. US President Donald Trump unveiled a 25% tariff on imported cars and light trucks starting next week, widening the global trade war. Adding to this, the uncertainty over Trump's so-called reciprocal tariffs tempers investors' appetite for riskier assets and underpins demand for the safe-haven bullion. Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) struggles to capitalize on the overnight gains, fueled by the better-than-expected release of US Durable Goods Orders, and retreats after hitting a three-week top amid dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations. This turns out to be another factor that benefits the non-yielding Gold price. However, the recent rise in the US Treasury bond yields could limit USD losses and hold traders from placing aggressive bullish bets around the XAU/USD pair. Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price draws support from a global flight to safety and a modest USD downtick The global risk sentiment took a hit in reaction to US President Donald Trump's new auto tariffs announced on Wednesday. Adding to this, the uncertainty over Trump's impending reciprocal tariff next week weighs on investors' sentiment and revives demand for the traditional safe-haven Gold price on Thursday. The uncertainty over the impact of Trump's trade policies forced the Federal Reserve to revise its growth outlook downward. Moreover, the US central bank signaled that it would deliver two 25-basis-point interest rate cuts in 2025. This overshadows Wednesday's upbeat US macro data and weighs on the US Dollar. In fact, the US Commerce Department reported that Durable Goods Orders rose 0.9% in February, while Core Durable Goods, which strips out the volatile transportation sector, increased by 0.7%. The readings were better than consensus estimates and led to the overnight USD move higher to a three-week high. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee told the Financial Times that it may take longer than anticipated for the next cut because of economic uncertainty. If markets start factoring higher inflation then he would view that as a major red flag area of concern for policymaking decisions, Goolsbee added further. Adding to this, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari argued that the central bank has made a lot of progress in bringing inflation down, but will have more work to do to get inflation back to the 2% target. Kashkari also said that he is uncertain about the effect of Trump's aggressive policies on the US economy. Separately, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said that there is no urgency for the US central bank to cut rates given the fact that restrictive policy is still needed to ensure inflation falls to the 2% target. He expects US economic growth to remain still decent, while prices may be pushed higher by tariffs. Traders now look forward to Thursday's US economic docket – featuring the release of the final Q4 GDP print, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and Pending Home Sales data. This, along with speeches by influential FOMC members, will drive the USD demand and produce short-term opportunities around the commodity. The focus, however, will remain glued to the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index on Friday, which could provide some cues about the Fed's future interest rate-cut path. This, in turn, will play a key role in determining the next leg of a directional move for the buck and the non-yielding yellow metal. Gold price could aim to challenge the all-time peak, around the $3,057-3,058 area touched earlier this month From a technical perspective, the bullish resilience near the $3,000 psychological mark and the subsequent move up favor bulls amid broadly positive oscillators on the daily chart. Hence, some follow-through buying should allow the Gold price to aim back towards challenging the all-time peak, around the $3,057-3,058 region touched on March 20. A sustained strength beyond will set the stage for an extension of the recent well-established uptrend witnessed over the past four months or so. On the flip side, the $3,020-3,019 horizontal zone might now protect the immediate downside ahead of the $3,000 psychological mark. This is followed by support near the $2,982-2,978 region, below which the Gold price could extend the corrective slide further towards the next relevant support near the $2,956-2,954 region. The latter represents a horizontal resistance breakpoint and should act as a key pivotal point, which if broken might prompt some technical selling and pave the way for deeper losses. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

06:57 FX option expiries for Mar 27 NY cut
FX option expiries for Mar 27 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

FX option expiries for Mar 27 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.EUR/USD: EUR amounts1.0660 800m1.0700 1.4b1.0715 889m1.0750 1.9b1.0800 2.8b1.0820 1.6b1.0855 1.4b1.0865 886m1.0900 1.1b1.1000 1.1bGBP/USD: GBP amounts 1.2800 665m1.2900 1.1bUSD/JPY: USD amounts 150.00 1.1b153.00 526mAUD/USD: AUD amounts0.6220 897m0.6450 801mUSD/CAD: USD amounts 1.4300 471mEUR/GBP: EUR amounts 0.8465 1.7b

06:45 China’s Ding: Will implement more pro-active macro policies this year
China’s Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang said on Thursday that they “will implement more pro-active macro policies this year.”

06:44 USD/CAD remains subdued near 1.4250 despite concerns over impending US auto tariffs
USD/CAD remains subdued for the fourth consecutive day, hovering around 1.4260 during Asian trading hours on Thursday.

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The pair is under pressure as the US Dollar (USD) weakens amid declining Treasury yields. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, is retreating from recent gains, trading near 104.30. Meanwhile, yields on US Treasury bonds stand at 4.0% for the 2-year note and 4.35% for the 10-year note at the time of writing. Investors are closely watching key US economic data set for release later in the day, including weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the final Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized report. Additionally, Friday’s release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—will provide further policy insights. However, USD/CAD’s downside may be limited as the Canadian Dollar (CAD) could face headwinds following new US trade measures. On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump signed an order imposing a 25% tariff on auto imports, effective April 2, with collections beginning the next day. A one-month reprieve will apply to auto parts imports. However, parts originating from Canada and Mexico that comply with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) will be exempt until US Customs and Border Protection establishes a system to enforce tariffs on non-US parts, according to a White House fact sheet. Reacting to the announcement, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney called the tariffs a “direct attack” on auto sector workers and is set to return to Ottawa to coordinate the government’s response with his cabinet, as reported by CNN Business. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

06:37 India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices rose in India on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

.fxs-related-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-related-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{text-decoration:none;color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover a{color:#e4871b}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover{text-decoration:none}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-related-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Gold prices rose in India on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet. The price for Gold stood at 8,381.36 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 8,332.24 it cost on Wednesday. The price for Gold increased to INR 97,755.57 per tola from INR 97,185.61 per tola a day earlier. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 8,381.36 10 Grams 83,811.21 Tola 97,755.57 Troy Ounce 260,653.90 2025 Gold Forecast Guide [PDF] Download your free copy of the 2025 Gold Forecast Daily digest market movers: Gold price trades firm near $3,000, unfazed by Trump’s comments The US 10-year T-note yield is almost flat, up one basis point at 4.338%. US real yields edges down one bp to 1.973%, according to US 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yields. US Durable Goods Orders posted a solid performance in February, rising 0.9% MoM, defying expectations of a 1% decline. Core Durable Goods Orders, which exclude transportation, also impressed — climbing 0.7% MoM, up from 0.1% in January and well above the 0.2% forecast, signaling resilient business investment. On Monday, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic stated that he supports only one rate cut this year and doesn’t expect inflation to return to target until around 2027. FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

06:00 EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Tests nine-day EMA support near channel’s lower boundary at 161.50
EUR/JPY dips slightly after gaining in the previous session, hovering around 161.90 during Thursday’s Asian trading hours.

05:20 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD maintains position above $33.50 due to safe-haven demand
Silver (XAG/USD) recovers recent losses from the previous session, trading around $33.70 per troy ounce during Asian hours on Thursday.

05:20 EUR/USD rebounds from multi-week low, climbs to 1.0780 area amid USD downtick
The EUR/USD pair rebounds from over a three-week low, around the 1.0735-1.0730 area touched during the Asian session on Thursday, and for now, seems to have snapped a six-day losing streak.

05:13 USD/INR jumps on month-end US Dollar demand
The Indian Rupee (INR) loses momentum on Thursday. Concerns over potential tariff retaliations and rising month-end US Dollar (USD) demand from importers undermine the Indian currency.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Indian Rupee trades in negative territory in Thursday’s Asian session. Month-end US Dollar demand drags the INR lower, but a surge in foreign fund inflows might cap its downside. Investors brace for US weekly Initial Jobless Claims and final Q4 GDP report, which are due later on Thursday. The Indian Rupee (INR) loses momentum on Thursday. Concerns over potential tariff retaliations and rising month-end US Dollar (USD) demand from importers undermine the Indian currency. Furthermore, a rise in crude oil prices contributes to the INR’s downside as India is the world's third-largest oil consumer.

Nonetheless, the positive outlook in domestic equities and renewed foreign fund inflows might lift the local currency. Any significant depreciation of the INR might be capped by the foreign exchange intervention from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). Looking ahead, the US weekly Initial Jobless Claims, the final Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter (Q4), and Pending Home Sales will be published later on Thursday. Indian Rupee remains weak amid global cues Foreign investors have bought more than $2 billion worth of Indian shares in the last four days, while month-to-date inflows into bonds stood at over $3 billion. Late Wednesday, Trump signed an order to implement a 25% tariff on auto imports. Trump added that the tariffs would go into effect on April 2 and the US would start to collect them a day later. Trump will allow up to a one-month reprieve for auto parts imports from his proposed 25% automobile tariffs, per Reuters. US Durable Goods Orders rose by 0.9% in February, compared to a 3.3% increase (revised from 3.1%) reported in January, according to the US Census Bureau on Wednesday. This figure came in better than the market expectation for a decrease of 1%. USD/INR’s bearish outlook remains in play The Indian Rupee weakens on the day. The bearish outlook of the USD/INR pair remains intact as the price remains capped below the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average on the daily timeframe. The downward momentum is reinforced by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), which stands below the midline near 36.0, suggesting the path of least resistance is to the downside. The initial support level for USD/INR is seen at 85.56, the low of March 26. Sustained bearish pressure below the mentioned level could see a drop to 84.84, the low of December 19, followed by 84.22, the low of November 25, 2024.

On the bright side, the key resistance level for the pair emerges in the 85.95-86.00 zone, representing the 100-day EMA and the psychological level. Further north, the next hurdle to watch is 86.48, the low of February 21, en route to 87.00, the round figure. Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.

04:51 Japanese Yen strengthens amid a global flight to safety, BoJ rate hike bets
The Japanese Yen (JPY) ticks higher against its American counterpart during the Asian session on Thursday and reverses a major part of the previous day's losses.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Japanese Yen attracts fresh buyers on Thursday amid rising trade tensions.Bets that the BoJ will continue raising rates lend additional support to the JPY. A modest USD pullback from a multi-week high also exerted pressure on USD/JPY. The Japanese Yen (JPY) ticks higher against its American counterpart during the Asian session on Thursday and reverses a major part of the previous day's losses. The global risk sentiment takes a hit in reaction to US President Donald Trump's new tariffs on imported cars. This comes ahead of Trump's impending reciprocal tariffs announcement next week and lends support to the safe-haven JPY. Moreover, the hawkish sentiment surrounding the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) policy outlook, bolstered by strong wage growth for the third straight year, further underpins the JPY. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's (Fed) forecast for two 25 basis points rate cuts in 2025 marks a big divergence in comparison to hawkish BoJ expectations. This could result in a further narrowing of the US-Japan rate differential, which contributes to driving flows toward the lower-yielding JPY. Apart from this, a modest US Dollar (USD) pullback from a three-week high drags the USD/JPY pair closer to the 150.00 psychological mark. Traders now look to the US macro data – the final Q4 GDP print, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and Pending Home Sales – for some impetus. Japanese Yen attracts safe-haven flows as Trump’s new tariffs weigh on investors’ sentiment US President Donald Trump announced on Wednesday that he would impose 25% tariffs on all imported vehicles and foreign-made auto-parts on April 2, widening the global trade war. This comes on top of impending reciprocal tariffs against at least 15 countries next week and weighs on investors' sentiment, boosting demand for the safe-haven Japanese Yen. Investors seem convinced that the Bank of Japan will continue raising interest rates amid expectations that strong wage growth would underpin consumption and filter into broader inflation trends. Adding to this, BoJ's new board member Junko Koeda said on Wednesday that various indicators show underlying inflation moving towards 2% inflation sustainably. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve revised its growth outlook downward amid the uncertainty over the impact of Trump's trade policies and signaled that it would deliver two 25-basis-points interest rate cuts by the end of this year. This fails to assist the US Dollar to capitalize on its recent move higher to a three-week high touched during the Asian session on Thursday. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said in a Financial Times (FT) interview on Wednesday that it may take longer than anticipated for the next rate cut to come because of economic uncertainty. Goolsbee, however, believed that borrowing costs would be a fair bit lower in 12-18 months from now, though wait and see is the correct approach. Separately, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari reiterated that “we've made a lot of progress bringing inflation down, still there is still more work to do.” Kashkari acknowledged that the job market has stayed strong and that policy uncertainty is complicating the Fed's job. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said that risks that inflation will stall above 2% or move higher in the near-term appear to have increased. If the labor market remains strong and second-round tariff effects become apparent, the US central bank may need to keep rates higher for longer or consider more restrictive policy, Musalem added further. The US Commerce Department reported on Wednesday that Durable Goods Orders rose 0.9% in February compared to the previous month's revised increase of 3.3%. Moreover, Core durable goods, which strip out the volatile transportation sector, increased by 0.7%. The readings were better than consensus estimates and provided a modest lift to the USD Index. Thursday's US economic docket features the release of the final Q4 GDP print, the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims data, and Pending Home Sales. The focus, however, will remain glued to the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index on Friday, which could provide some cues about the Fed's rate-cut path and influence the USD price dynamics. USD/JPY technical setup supports prospects for the emergence of dip-buyers at lower levels From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair's inability to build on the recent breakout momentum above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and failure near the 151.00 mark on Tuesday warrant caution for bulls. That said, oscillators on the daily chart have just started gaining positive traction and support prospects for the emergence of some dip-buyers. Hence, any further weakness below the 150.00 psychological mark could find some support near the 149.55 area. Some follow-through selling, however, could make spot prices vulnerable to accelerate the fall towards the 149.00 mark en route to the 148.75-148.70 support. The latter coincides with the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, which if broken might shift the bias in favor of bearish traders. On the flip side, any positive move beyond the 150.50-150.60 region might continue to face hurdle near the 151.00 mark. This is followed by the monthly swing low, around the 151.30 region, which if cleared will set the stage for an extension of the recent recovery from a multi-month low. The subsequent move-up should allow the USD/JPY pair to aim towards reclaiming the 152.00 round figure. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

04:32 GBP/USD rises above 1.2900 as US yields decline, Q4 GDP Annualized report eyed
GBP/USD recovers its recent losses from the previous session, climbing to around 1.2910 during Thursday’s Asian session.

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The pair is strengthening as the US Dollar (USD) remains under pressure due to declining Treasury yields, with the 2-year and 10-year yields hovering at 4.0% and 4.34%, respectively. Market participants are closely monitoring upcoming US economic data, including weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the final Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized report, set for release later in the day. However, the upside of the GBP/USD pair could be limited as risk-off sentiment rises amid escalating US trade policies. Late Wednesday, US President Donald Trump signed an order imposing a 25% tariff on auto imports, set to take effect on April 2, with collections beginning the following day. However, a one-month reprieve will be granted for auto parts imports. The move has intensified global trade tensions, adding uncertainty to the markets. Adding to trade-war concerns, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem issued strong remarks on Wednesday, joining other Federal Reserve policymakers in criticizing the tariff policies. Musalem warned that these measures are unsettling the US economy, increasing uncertainty, and pushing inflation higher. Meanwhile, the Pound Sterling (GBP) weakened following the release of the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for February, which showed inflation cooling faster than expected. The softer CPI figures have fueled speculation that the Bank of England (BoE) may lean toward monetary easing. Headline CPI rose 2.8% year-over-year, missing the 2.9% forecast and cooling from January’s 3.0%. Core CPI, which excludes volatile items, increased by 3.5%, below expectations of 3.6% and the previous 3.7% reading. On a monthly basis, headline CPI grew 0.4% after a 0.1% decline in January, falling short of the 0.5% estimate. However, services sector inflation—closely watched by BoE officials—remained steady at 5%. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

04:12 Japan’s Hayashi: Once again, asked the US to exempt Japan from auto tariffs
Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said on Thursday that they have “once again, asked the US to exempt Japan from auto tariffs.”

Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said on Thursday that they have “once again, asked the US to exempt Japan from auto tariffs.”Further comments"US auto tariffs are extremely regrettable.""Will continue to work closely with us and take necessary steps to resolve issue."Meanwhile, Japanese Prime Minister (PM) Shigeru Ishiba said on Thursday, Tokyo will put "all options on the table" in dealing with Washington's announcement to impose a 25% tariff on automobile imports.Market reactionAt the time of writing, USD/JPY is off the lows but remains 0.24% lower on the day near 150.20.

03:53 NZD/USD softens below 0.5750 amid trade war concerns
The NZD/USD pair edges lower to around 0.5730 during the early Asian session on Thursday.

03:34 Australian Dollar depreciates as US auto tariffs escalate global trade tensions
The Australian Dollar (AUD) remains under pressure against the US Dollar (USD) for the second consecutive day on Thursday, as risk-off sentiment rises amid concerns over impending US auto tariffs.

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The AUD/USD pair weakened following President Donald Trump’s decision late Wednesday to impose a 25% tariff on auto imports, further escalating global trade tensions. The tariffs are set to take effect on April 2, with collection beginning the following day. President Trump suggested plans on Wednesday to impose tariffs on copper imports within weeks, although the Commerce Department initially had until November 2025 to decide on the matter. This development, however, provided some support for the AUD, as Australia is a key Copper exporter, and the potential tariff move lifted commodity prices. The AUD could find further support as investors expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to keep interest rates steady next week. This past February, the RBA made its first 25-basis-point rate cut in four years. RBA Assistant Governor (Economic) Sarah Hunter reiterated the central bank’s cautious approach to further rate cuts, with February’s policy statement signaling a more conservative stance than market expectations, particularly in response to US policy shifts and their impact on Australia’s inflation outlook. Australian Dollar struggles as risk-off sentiment rises The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against six major currencies, is retreating from recent gains and trading around 104.50. The greenback is under pressure as US Treasury yields decline, with the 10-year and 2-year yields hovering at 4.0% and 4.34%, respectively. Traders are closely watching upcoming US economic data, including weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the final Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized report, set for release on Thursday. According to Reuters, Trump will grant up to a one-month reprieve for auto parts imports from his proposed 25% automobile tariffs. The proclamation states that while automobiles will be subject to the 25% tariff starting at 04:01 GMT on April 3, auto parts will face the tariff at a later date, to be specified in a Federal Register notice, but no later than May 3, 2025. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem made strong remarks on Wednesday, joining a growing number of Fed policymakers warning about the Trump administration’s tariff policies. Musalem cautioned that these measures are disrupting the stable US economy, increasing uncertainty, and driving inflation higher. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari emphasized that work remains to be done on inflation, stating, "The job market has stayed strong, but the biggest challenge is to finish the job." Kashkari also noted that policy uncertainty is making the Fed's task more complex. Expectations of Chinese stimulus could boost the Australian economy, given strong trade ties between the two nations. China’s Communist Party and State Council have proposed measures to "vigorously boost consumption" by raising wages and easing financial burdens—an effort to restore consumer confidence and revitalize the struggling economy. President Trump announced plans on Wednesday to reduce tariffs on China to facilitate ByteDance's sale of TikTok's US operations. While he emphasized that the tariffs hold greater value than TikTok itself, he suggested that a minor tariff reduction could aid in finalizing the deal. Trump also hinted at the possibility of extending the deadline for the TikTok sale once again. Australia’s Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% year-over-year in February, slightly below January’s 2.5% increase and market expectations of 2.5%. Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers presented the 2025/26 budget on Tuesday, outlining key economic forecasts and tax cuts totaling approximately A$17.1 billion across two rounds. The budget deficit is projected at A$27.6 billion for 2024-25 and A$42.1 billion for 2025-26. GDP growth is expected to reach 2.25% in the fiscal year 2026 and 2.5% in 2027. The tax cuts appear to be aimed at strengthening political support. Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar tests 0.6300 barrier near nine-day EMA AUD/USD is trading near 0.6290 on Thursday, with technical indicators hinting at a potential bullish shift as the pair attempts to break above its descending channel pattern. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) still remains just below 50, indicating that bearish pressure is still present. The nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6305 is serving as an immediate resistance level. A breakout above this point could strengthen short-term price momentum, paving the way for a test of the monthly high at 0.6391, last seen on March 18. Conversely, failure to sustain gains could see the AUD/USD pair re-enter its descending channel, reinforcing the bearish outlook. This scenario may drive the pair toward the seven-week low of 0.6187, recorded on March 5, which aligns with the channel’s lower boundary. AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.11% -0.05% -0.32% 0.11% 0.08% -0.01% -0.06% EUR 0.11% 0.03% -0.23% 0.20% 0.15% 0.09% 0.03% GBP 0.05% -0.03% -0.25% 0.16% 0.13% 0.04% 0.00% JPY 0.32% 0.23% 0.25% 0.42% 0.37% 0.28% 0.25% CAD -0.11% -0.20% -0.16% -0.42% -0.02% -0.11% -0.16% AUD -0.08% -0.15% -0.13% -0.37% 0.02% -0.08% -0.12% NZD 0.00% -0.09% -0.04% -0.28% 0.11% 0.08% -0.04% CHF 0.06% -0.03% -0.00% -0.25% 0.16% 0.12% 0.04% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

03:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1763 vs. 7.1754 previous
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Thursday at 7.1763 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1754 and 7.2728 Reuters estimate.

03:01 Ukraine's President Zelenskyy expects US to ensure ceasefire is without conditions
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said late Wednesday that sanctions on Russia need to stay in place.

02:24 WTI edges higher above $69.50 on Venezuela supply concerns
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $69.60 during the early Asian session on Thursday.

02:07 EUR/USD extends declines as tariff threats begin to break markets
EUR/USD accelerated to the downside on Wednesday, shedding over one-quarter of one percent on Wednesday and skidding back below 1.0750 for the first time since the first week of March.

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The pair has lost ground for six straight trading days, and souring market sentiment on trade war fears is poised to take more bites out of risk appetite in the days to come as we get closer to April 2.President Trump plans 25% tariff on imported vehiclesAccording to various avenues of information, the Trump administration still plans to move ahead with a wide tariff on all copper imports into the US, matching the Trump team’s recent 25% flat import tax on all steel and aluminum that cross the US border. President Trump also intends to announce additional tariffs on automobiles across the board, and European Union (EU) officials are expecting the Trump administration to announce a tariff of around 20% on all, or most, or a targeted group of goods, depending on what day it is and how Donald Trump is feeling at that time. Fed's Musalem expects inflation back to 2% by 2027All of this may or may not be in addition to the anticipated “reciprocal” tariff package that President Trump intends to kick off on April 2, which countries may or may not be able to get exemptions from. Donald Trump intends to impose a matching tariff on other countries that have their own trade barriers on US goods, a rather perplexing approach to trade in general. President Trump has also floated the idea of classifying VAT, or luxury taxes, as a kind of pseudo-tariff on US goods, and including those in reciprocal tariffs. US GDP growth figures are due on Thursday, but the non-preliminary print is unlikely to drive much momentum in either direction. This week’s key US data release will be Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) inflation due on Friday. Investors will be hoping that a recent upturn in inflation figures will prove to be temporary, but median forecasts are expecting annualized PCE inflation to rise to 2.7% YoY in February. EUR/USD price forecast Six days of steady declines are taking their toll on EUR/USD, as bids slide nearly 2% top-to-bottom from last week’s peak just above 1.0950. Bearish momentum has taken hold, and price action is poised to make a fresh push into the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) just south of the 1.0700 handle. EUR/USD daily chart Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

01:50 Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks climbed from previous ¥-1806.2B to ¥-1206B in March 21
Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks climbed from previous ¥-1806.2B to ¥-1206B in March 21

01:50 Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks increased to ¥-1B in March 21 from previous ¥-1806.2B
Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks increased to ¥-1B in March 21 from previous ¥-1806.2B

01:39 US President Donald Trump allows up to one-month tariff exemption for auto parts imports
US President Donald Trump will allow up to a one-month reprieve for auto parts imports from his proposed 25% automobile tariffs, per Reuters.

01:13 USD/CAD gains ground above 1.4300 as Trump announces new auto tariffs from overseas
The USD/CAD pair rebounds to around 1.4305 during the late American session on Wednesday.

00:55 GBP/USD backslides as market sentiment sours
GBP/USD sewered on Wednesday, tumbling six-tenths of a percent top-to-bottom and pushed back below the 1.2900 handle as market sentiment recoils from a fresh batch of tariff threats from US President Donald Trump.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}GBP/USD fell back below 1.2900 on Wednesday.Markets are recoiling after Donald Trump renewed his tariff pledges.An ever-growing list of tariffs is set to come into effect on April 2.GBP/USD sewered on Wednesday, tumbling six-tenths of a percent top-to-bottom and pushed back below the 1.2900 handle as market sentiment recoils from a fresh batch of tariff threats from US President Donald Trump. Economic suddenly means very little as the Trump administration gears up to spark a them-vs-everybody trade war on April 2.US President Donald Trump announces plan to tariff all imported cars 25%Policymakers have warned that the Trump administration’s long-winded trade war aspirations are beginning to hurt the US's economic prospects. Red flags are also being raised by key financial agencies: according to the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) Global ratings contingent, there is a 25% probability of a US recession kicking off within the next year. S&P Global specifically highlighted that “US policy uncertainty poses risks to North American credit conditions”. UK inflation figures came in broadly under market forecasts on Wednesday, helping to ease market concerns. The next batch of key UK data will be Friday’s final Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Retail Sales updates. UK GDP growth is expected to match the previous figures during the fourth quarter of 2024, but Retail Sales figures are expected to contract slightly in February. US GDP growth figures are also due on Thursday, but the non-preliminary print is unlikely to drive much momentum in either direction. This week’s key US data release will be Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) inflation due on Friday. Investors will be hoping that a recent upturn in inflation figures will prove to be temporary, but median forecasts are expecting annualized PCE inflation to rise to 2.7% YoY in February. GBP/USD price forecast GBP/USD chalked in another down day during the midweek market session, dragging bids down even further from the last swing high near 1.3000. Bearish pressure is beginning to accumulate, and price action could be poised for a downside snap as bidders lose the momentum war just north of the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.2725. GBP/USD daily chart Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

00:24 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD retreats from 4-day peak, beneath $34
Silver price retreats by 0.32% after reaching a four-day high of $33.92.

00:01 NZD/USD Price Analysis: Holds near 0.5725 with short-term moving averages supporting bullish tilt
The NZD/USD pair traded with limited traction during Wednesday’s session ahead of the Asian open, seen around the 0.5725 zone.

NZD/USD was seen hovering around the 0.5725 area on Wednesday, showing mild losses within a narrow intraday range.While oscillators show mixed signals, shorter-term moving averages lean bullish, keeping the upside potential intact.Support aligns at 0.5722–0.5725 zone, while resistance caps upside around 0.5732–0.5740 levels.The NZD/USD pair traded with limited traction during Wednesday’s session ahead of the Asian open, seen around the 0.5725 zone. Despite a mild decline on the day, the pair continues to hold in a tight range, consolidating recent gains while staying above key short-term support levels. Momentum remains mixed, yet the bullish structure still holds, supported by shorter-term trend indicators. Technically, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) signlas a mild bearish bias, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near 51, offering a neutral stance. The Bull Bear Power indicator, however, suggests latent buying interest. Meanwhile, the combined RSI/Stochastic oscillator also reads neutral, highlighting indecision in the momentum picture. From a trend perspective, the 20-day Simple Moving Average at 0.5725 and both the 30-day EMA and SMA near 0.5723 continue to support short-term upside bias. However, traders should take note of the congestion between the 100-day and 20-day SMAs, currently at 0.5733 and 0.5720, respectively. Support is stacked closely at 0.5725, 0.5723, and 0.5722, while resistance lies ahead at 0.5732, followed by 0.5740. A clean break above the latter may spark renewed interest toward higher levels, while failure to hold the support cluster could lead to short-term weakness. NZD/USD daily chart

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Forex News Timeline

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00:55 GBP/USD backslides as market sentiment sours GBP/USD sewered on Wednesday, tumbling six-tenths of a percent top-to-bottom and pushed back below the 1.2900 handle as market sentiment recoils from a fresh batch of tariff threats from US President Donald Trump.

00:24 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD retreats from 4-day peak, beneath $34 Silver price retreats by 0.32% after reaching a four-day high of $33.92.

00:01 NZD/USD Price Analysis: Holds near 0.5725 with short-term moving averages supporting bullish tilt The NZD/USD pair traded with limited traction during Wednesday’s session ahead of the Asian open, seen around the 0.5725 zone.

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