Forex News Timeline

22:01 United States Consumer Credit Change came in at $9.18B, below expectations ($10.5B) in October
United States Consumer Credit Change came in at $9.18B, below expectations ($10.5B) in October

21:24 Dow Jones Industrial Average climbs 150 points after cooler PCE inflation print
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) made slim gains on Friday, climbing another 150 points and ending a moderately bullish week near the 48,000 handle.

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Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.

21:22 Gold holds strong at $4,200 as Fed-cut anticipation builds
Gold (XAU/USD) advances during the North American session on Friday, poised to finish the week almost flat above the $4,200 figure as market participants brace for the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting next week.

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At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $4,216 after bouncing off daily highs of $4,259.XAU/USD trades flat; markets eye Federal Reserve’s expected rate cutThe week ends with the release of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for September, which remained virtually unchanged, slightly closer to the 3% threshold than the Fed’s 2% goal. Although the print would justify a Fed hold, jobs data showing a cooling labor market and dovish comments by Federal Reserve officials suggest that a rate cut is most likely.Recently, the University of Michigan revealed that American consumers grew slightly optimistic regarding the outlook of the economy. Worth noting that inflation expectations dipped, even though there is growing speculation that the impact of tariffs is yet to be felt.On Thursday, a Reuters poll revealed that economists had priced in the December rate cut, a green light for Gold price to extend its rally.As of writing, the CME's FedWatch tool indicates an 87.2% probability of a 0.25% reduction next week.Daily market movers: Gold firms as US Treasury yields climbThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the American’s currency performance against other six, is virtually unchanged at 98.93.The US 10-year Treasury note yield is up nearly four basis points, up to 4.141%. US real yields, which correlate inversely with Gold prices, are also rising two bps to 1.881%, a headwind for Bullion.The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure excluding food and energy — rose 0.2% MoM in September, matching August’s pace and market estimates. On a yearly basis, core PCE eased from 2.9% to 2.8%, reinforcing the view that underlying inflation continues to cool gradually.The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index for December improved to 53.3, topping expectations of 52 and rising from November’s final reading of 51. Survey Director Joanne Hsu noted that “consumers see modest improvements from November on a few dimensions, but the overall tenor of views is broadly somber.” Inflation expectations moderated, with one-year expectations falling from 4.5% to 4.1%, while five-year expectations slipped from 3.4% to 3.2%, signaling a further easing in longer-term price concerns among households.Technical Analysis: Gold price remains subdued post US Core PCEGold’s uptrend remains intact, but price action on Friday suggests that XAU/USD might consolidate within the $4,200-$4,250 range, ahead of the Fed’s meeting. Bullish momentum faded as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which favors buyers, but it has turned flattish around the 61.00 level.A break of the range to the upside clears the path to challenge $4,300 and the all-time high of $4,381. Conversely, a drop below $4,200 would expose initial support at the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,124, followed by $4,100, and then the 50-day SMA at $4,059.Gold daily chart Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

20:38 AUD/USD Price Forecast: Aussie eyes YTD high after channel breakout
The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends its advance against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, with AUD/USD climbing to its highest level since September 18 as traders are almost certain the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will leave interest rates unchanged on December 9.

20:01 United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count above forecasts (409): Actual (413)
United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count above forecasts (409): Actual (413)

18:41 Fed poised for third straight cut, BoC seen on hold – RBC
Dual central bank interest rate decisions from the U.S.

Dual central bank interest rate decisions from the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada on Wednesday top the week’s calendar, with the BoC expected to hold rates, while a third consecutive 25 basis point cut from the Fed looks highly likely, RBC's economists Nathan Janzen and Claire Fan report. Trade data key for Canada ahead of rate decision"Our base case forecast a month ago did not assume a December cut from the Fed, given inflation in the U.S. remains above the central bank’s 2% target, and Chair Jerome Powell’s comments at the last meeting about cautiously proceeding in a foggy environment. However, with an unusually divided FOMC committee, next week’s decision was always going to be a very close call. Fed communication over the last few weeks has also been leaning in the direction of a cut. With some softer data during the blackout, we doubt the hawks will put up a major fight." "A hold by the BoC in comparison should be relatively uncontroversial. After October’s rate cut, policymakers signaled that “the current policy rate is about the right level” to deliver low, steady inflation while supporting growth through uncertainty. Delayed September Canadian trade data next week would need to show a 3.4% increase in merchandize export volume from August, and a 3.1% decrease in goods import volume in order to match the details in the third quarter GDP data from last week." "More important still are the trade details from U.S. census bureau on whether CUSMA exemptions have continued to hold up to support Canadian exports to the U.S. in September."

18:24 EUR/USD pulls back as Greenback finds support following latest US data
The Euro (EUR) trims earlier gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday as the Greenback firms following the latest set of US economic releases.

18:20 EUR/USD: USD slide may spur 2026 diversification – Rabobank
The US Dollar’s (USD) sharp H1 2025 drop could push investors toward broader portfolios, though geopolitics and Fed risks may keep the currency unsettled.

The US Dollar’s (USD) sharp H1 2025 drop could push investors toward broader portfolios, though geopolitics and Fed risks may keep the currency unsettled. Analysts now expect EUR/USD to swing widely in 2026, trimming the 12-month target to 1.18 while keeping a modestly bullish bias, Rabobank's FX analyst Jane Foley reports. Geopolitics to drive EUR/USD volatility"The sharpness of the USD’s plunge in H1 2025 could itself encourage investors to favour a more diversified portfolio going forward into 2026. That said, issues related to trade tensions, geopolitics, Fed independence and US growth and inflation risks can all be expected to impact the value of the greenback next year." "Developments in all these topics have the capacity to both spook and reassure investors. With this in mind, our central view is that EUR/USD is likely to trade in wide choppy ranges in the year ahead, with only a modest upside bias.""We have removed EUR/USD1.20 from our 12-month forecast table and instead have a 1-year forecast of 1.18, with the slight upturn in the direction reflecting the risks to the USD of a dovish FOMC and the possibility that the market could be speculating about the first ECB rate hike of the cycle by the end of next year. We have maintained our 1-to-3-month forecast of EUR/USD1.16."

18:16 Fed poised for 25bp cut to 3.50–3.75% – Rabobank
The FOMC is expected to deliver a 25bp rate cut with potential dissents, reflecting the tension between inflation risks and weakening employment. Federal Reserve (Fed) Gov.

The FOMC is expected to deliver a 25bp rate cut with potential dissents, reflecting the tension between inflation risks and weakening employment. Federal Reserve (Fed) Gov. Jerome Powell is likely to emphasize data-dependence heading into January, while the new dot plot may still underplay the policy influence of the incoming Trump administration, Rabobank's Senior US Strategist Philip Marey reports. Powell expected to downplay policy split"We expect the FOMC to make a 25 bps cut to the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.50-3.75% from 3.75-4.00%. We also expect dissents, possibly in opposite directions.""At the press conference, Powell will probably downplay any dissent as something that follows from a challenging situation with upside inflation risk and downside employment risk. Regarding the January meeting, he is likely to stress that the Fed is data-dependent and makes decisions meeting-by-meeting.""The new dot plot will be of interest, but may still underestimate the impact of the Trump administration on the Fed next year. Looking ahead to next year, we expect the Fed to continue its cutting cycle at least until their estimate of the neutral rate is reached."

17:58 GBP/USD rises as Fed rate cut odds boost Sterling
GBP/USD resumes its uptrend on Friday, trimming some of Thursday’s 0.21% losses as the Greenback recovered some ground. Inflation data in the US kept steady the chances for a Fed cut in the December meeting, weighing on the Dollar. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 1.3349 up 0.19%.

17:18 EUR/GBP Price Forecast: Sellers dominate as momentum turns decisively bearish
EUR/GBP remains under pressure on Friday as the Euro (EUR) continues to soften against a broadly supported British Pound (GBP). Sterling has held firm since the UK Autumn Budget, even as markets maintain strong expectations for a Bank of England (BoE) interest rate cut at the December 18 meeting.

17:07 US PCE Price Index rises 2.8% in September as expected
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 2.8% on a yearly basis in September, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported on Friday. This print followed the 2.7% increase recorded in August and came in line with the market expectation.

17:04 US UoM Consumer Sentiment Index is seen at 53.3 in December
American consumer confidence edged higher in early December, as households grew more optimistic about current conditions and the broader economic outlook, according to preliminary data from the University of Michigan.

17:00 United States Michigan Consumer Expectations Index came in at 55, above expectations (51.2) in December
United States Michigan Consumer Expectations Index came in at 55, above expectations (51.2) in December

17:00 United States UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations declined to 4.1% in December from previous 4.5%
United States UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations declined to 4.1% in December from previous 4.5%

17:00 United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) below forecasts (2.9%) in September: Actual (2.8%)
United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) below forecasts (2.9%) in September: Actual (2.8%)

17:00 United States Personal Income (MoM) came in at 0.4%, above expectations (0.3%) in September
United States Personal Income (MoM) came in at 0.4%, above expectations (0.3%) in September

17:00 United States Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) in line with forecasts (0.3%) in September
United States Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) in line with forecasts (0.3%) in September

17:00 United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) meets forecasts (0.2%) in September
United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) meets forecasts (0.2%) in September

17:00 United States Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) meets forecasts (2.8%) in September
United States Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) meets forecasts (2.8%) in September

17:00 United States Personal Spending in line with forecasts (0.3%) in September
United States Personal Spending in line with forecasts (0.3%) in September

17:00 United States UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation fell from previous 3.4% to 3.2% in December
United States UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation fell from previous 3.4% to 3.2% in December

17:00 United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index above expectations (52) in December: Actual (53.3)
United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index above expectations (52) in December: Actual (53.3)

16:47 ECB’s Villeroy: Downside risks to inflation remain as significant as the upside risks.
European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of France Governor Villeroy de Galhau said on Friday that their current "good position" of ECB policy does not mean a comfortable or fixed one at a conference in Paris.

16:45 Canada jobs surge again in November – TDS
Canada delivered another major jobs surprise with 54k new positions, pushing the jobless rate sharply lower. Markets priced in future hikes as yields spiked, though analysts still expect the Bank of Canada (BoC) to hold steady through 2026, TDS' economists Robert Both and Emma Lawrence note.

Canada delivered another major jobs surprise with 54k new positions, pushing the jobless rate sharply lower. Markets priced in future hikes as yields spiked, though analysts still expect the Bank of Canada (BoC) to hold steady through 2026, TDS' economists Robert Both and Emma Lawrence note. BoC still seen holding rates despite hot data"CAD employment registered another sharp upside surprise with 54k jobs created in November, beating expectations for a modest unwind of recent strength (TD: -15k, market: -2.5k). Softer labour force participation contributed to a 0.4pp decline to 6.5% for the unemployment rate, while wage growth held at 4.0% y/y for permanent workers.""Today's report extends the performance from Sept/Oct, pushing the 3m trend to 60.2k. The December BoC already looked like a comfortable hold heading into the data, and while stronger labour market conditions could see the BoC put more emphasis on inflation risks, we still look for them to stay on hold at 2.25% through next year.""The market was sent into a frenzy as the upside surprise sparked a sell-off across the curve. Yields in the front-end are up 16 bps, and cross-currency spreads hit some of the widest levels since early 2024. Notably, while the market has now added hikes into the narrative for 2026, we still see the BoC on hold for 2026 and hiking in early 2027."

16:31 Turkey Treasury Cash Balance rose from previous -195.879B to 56.39B in November
Turkey Treasury Cash Balance rose from previous -195.879B to 56.39B in November

16:25 USD/CAD slides to a two-month low after Canada’s jobs beat; eyes on US PCE
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday as a stronger-than-expected Labour Force Survey boosts sentiment around the Loonie.

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At the time of writing, USD/CAD is trading near 1.3889, slipping to its lowest level since September 25 as traders respond to Canada’s upbeat employment figures.Statistics Canada reported that the economy added 53.6K jobs in November, sharply beating expectations for a modest 5K decline. This follows a strong 66.6K increase in October, marking a third consecutive month of job creation.The Unemployment Rate unexpectedly fell to 6.5% in November from 6.9%, beating market expectations for a rise to around 7.0% and marking the largest monthly improvement since late 2021.Wage growth also held steady, with average hourly earnings rising 4.0% YoY, matching the pace recorded at the same time last year. Meanwhile, the participation rate slipped to 65.1% from 65.3%.The data reinforced expectations that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will keep interest rates unchanged at its upcoming policy meeting on December 10. In its October decision, the BoC cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% and signaled that this move could mark the end of the easing cycle, noting that the current stance is “about right” for the economy. A fresh Reuters poll published earlier in the day showed unanimous expectations among 33 economists that the BoC will keep its policy rate at 2.25% next week. A majority, 18 of 29, also projected that interest rates will remain unchanged at least until 2027.In the United States, attention now turns to a busy round of economic releases due later in the day, including Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation, Personal Income, Personal Spending, and the preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment readings and inflation expectations.Together, these indicators will help shape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy path, with investors still largely convinced that the Fed is on track to deliver another interest rate cut at next week’s monetary policy meeting. Bank of Canada FAQs What is the Bank of Canada and how does it influence the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC), based in Ottawa, is the institution that sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Canada. It does so at eight scheduled meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings that are held as required. The BoC primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at between 1-3%. Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Canadian Dollar (CAD) and vice versa. Other tools used include quantitative easing and tightening. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Canadian Dollar? In extreme situations, the Bank of Canada can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the BoC prints Canadian Dollars for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker CAD. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The Bank of Canada used the measure during the Great Financial Crisis of 2009-11 when credit froze after banks lost faith in each other’s ability to repay debts. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Canadian Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Bank of Canada purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the BoC stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Canadian Dollar.

16:07 GBP holds steady amid quiet trading – Scotiabank
The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades little changed in subdued market conditions, with sentiment influenced by broader currency trends.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades little changed in subdued market conditions, with sentiment influenced by broader currency trends. Technical signals suggest the pound is coiling for another potential push higher, with support near 1.3320, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report. EUR/GBP supported by rising eurozone yields"Sterling is little changed in quiet trade. There were no data reports from the UK this morning, leaving sentiment at the mercy of the broader trend in the major currencies. Rising Eurozone yields, compressing yield spreads with Gilts, suggest EUR/GBP is likely to remain supported on dips for now.""The pound is caught in a range on the day but technical signals lean bullish on the daily chart after a solid rise in the pound midweek pushed spot well above 1.3284 retracement resistance (38.2% Fibonacci of the Sep/Nov decline)." "Intraday gains are stalling around the 50% retracement now but bullish trend signals on the intraday and daily DMI suggest the pound is coiling ahead of another push higher. Bullish above 1.3355/65 intraday. Support is 1.3320."

16:01 EUR holds steady near mid-range – Scotiabank
The Euro (USD) trades flat near the midpoint of its intraday range, supported by stronger-than-expected German and French industrial data.

The Euro (USD) trades flat near the midpoint of its intraday range, supported by stronger-than-expected German and French industrial data. Technical indicators point to bullish momentum, hinting at a possible advance toward 1.18 and beyond, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report. German factory orders lift Euro briefly"The EUR is trading virtually flat on the session and just below the midpoint of the intraday range so far. The EUR caught a mild bid earlier in Europe on the back of stronger than expected German Factory Orders and French IP data but gains stalled in the upper 1.16s. Eurozone GDP was also revised marginally higher to 0.3% Q/Q in Q3.""The EUR retains a firm technical undertone but gains are failing to make any advance beyond the recent peaks in the upper 1.16s. Strengthening bull momentum on the short-term oscillators suggests a push higher, and perhaps an advance towards 1.18+, remains possible."

15:45 USD edges higher, but DXY losses persist – Scotiabank
The US Dollar (USD) is adding marginally to net losses on the week into Friday trade but the broader tone of price action is perhaps tending towards consolidation in DXY losses, with the index edging back to the 99 area, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.

The US Dollar (USD) is adding marginally to net losses on the week into Friday trade but the broader tone of price action is perhaps tending towards consolidation in DXY losses, with the index edging back to the 99 area, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.Markets eye Fed ahead of expected rate cut"News and developments in overnight trade are limited, however, and overall movement in FX reflects this. Markets are perhaps starting to consolidate ahead of the Fed. Even though Fed policymakers won’t have the delayed NFP data at hand when they sit down to deliberate on rates at Wednesday’s FOMC, this week’s private sector data for Nov confirm the continued slowdown in the US labour market.""Yesterday’s ADP reported a 32k fall in private non-farm payrolls while the Revelio PLS series came in with a 9k drop in hiring. The data may not tally closely with official NFP data on a month-by-month basis but the trend is clear and should help deliver the now widely expected 25bps cut. More uncertainty revolves around the policy outlook heading into 2026. This morning’s delayed September Personal Income/Spending and PCE data are expected to show a moderate rise in spending and income. Core PCE is expected to edge slightly lower to 2.8%.""Preliminary U. Michigan Sentiment data is forecast to improve marginally (to 52) but remain close to record low levels. While daily price action suggests a pause in the DXY losses, the dollar has not done enough to reverse negative technical drivers and a second weekly decline in the index keeps the broader focus on the downside (we target the mid97 range still). Seasonal trends are broadly dollar negative in December."

15:30 Canada Unemployment Rate below expectations (7%) in November: Actual (6.5%)
Canada Unemployment Rate below expectations (7%) in November: Actual (6.5%)

15:30 Canada Participation Rate dipped from previous 65.3% to 65.1% in November
Canada Participation Rate dipped from previous 65.3% to 65.1% in November

15:30 Canada Net Change in Employment registered at 53.6K above expectations (-5K) in November
Canada Net Change in Employment registered at 53.6K above expectations (-5K) in November

15:20 EUR/JPY rebounds on stronger Eurozone data, soft Yen
EUR/JPY recovers from early lows on Friday as the Japanese Yen struggles to benefit from growing expectations of a Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike.

14:30 Copper price continues to surge – Commerzbank
Copper prices jumped to a new record of $11,540 per ton as fears mount over potential US import tariffs extending to refined Copper.

Copper prices jumped to a new record of $11,540 per ton as fears mount over potential US import tariffs extending to refined Copper. Market concerns over supply shortages and surging delivery requests threaten further depletion of LME inventories, keeping upward pressure on prices, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Thu Lan Nguyen notes. US import tariffs on Copper raise supply concerns"At the beginning of the week, the Copper price made another significant upward leap, reaching a new record high of $11,540 per ton. This time, fears of a short-term supply shortage due to looming new US import tariffs on Copper were the driving force. Over the summer, the US administration surprised the market by initially exempting refined Copper from the 50% tariffs, applying them only to semi-finished Copper products and Copper derivatives.""Consequently, the Copper price traded on the Comex collapsed, and LME warehouse stocks recovered starting mid-year, as large amounts of metal had been shipped to the US in anticipation of the tariffs. Now, however, there are growing concerns that the tariffs could be extended after all, potentially triggering another drain on LME inventory to Comex. These fears were recently heightened by a surge in requests for metal deliveries.""Indeed, the US Secretary of Commerce originally proposed that tariffs on refined Copper should also be introduced gradually — but only starting in 2027. Is it possible that the US administration might expedite this process? Certainly. However, the initial aim may have been to allow the domestic Copper industry sufficient time to expand production capacity in order to meet domestic demand. According to USGS data, the current domestic supply coverage rate is only about 50%. Nevertheless, as long as these fears persist and lead to further inventory depletion at the LME, the risk of renewed Copper price surges remains high."

14:26 Italy's Gold reserves become the focus of politics – Commerzbank
Italy is considering declaring its central bank’s 2,452 tons of Gold as the property of the people, a move opposed by the ECB over fears it could threaten bank independence.

Italy is considering declaring its central bank’s 2,452 tons of Gold as the property of the people, a move opposed by the ECB over fears it could threaten bank independence. While the Italian central bank is unlikely to be forced to sell, central banks in Brazil and Poland have shown strong appetite for Gold, with October purchases reaching 53 tons, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes. ECB urges Meloni government to rethink proposal"Italy is apparently considering declaring the Gold reserves held by the central bank to be the property of the people. The ECB has called on Prime Minister Meloni's government to reconsider this proposal. Apparently, there are fears that the central bank could be forced by the government, as the elected representative of the people, to sell Gold." "This, in turn, could undermine the independence of the central bank, which is guaranteed in the ECB's statutes. The Italian central bank holds 2,452 tons of Gold in its vaults, making it the third-largest Gold reserve holder behind the US Federal Reserve and the Deutsche Bundesbank. It is very unlikely that the Italian central bank will actually be forced by the government to sell Gold." "If it did, it would have no trouble finding grateful buyers among other central banks. As reported by the World Gold Council, central bank Gold purchases rose to 53 tons in October, reaching their highest monthly level this year. The largest buyers in October were the central banks of Brazil with 16 tons and Poland with 15.6 tons."

14:23 USD/JPY edges up above 155.00 ahead of the US PCE inflation release
The US Dollar has popped up above the 155.00 line against the Japanese Yen on Friday’s European session, after bouncing up from two-week lows at 154.30 on Thursday.

14:22 European Gas price falls to 20-month low – Commerzbank
The TTF Natural Gas price continued to slide this week. The 1-month forward is currently trading below EUR 27 per MWh, which is the lowest level in 20 months, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

The TTF Natural Gas price continued to slide this week. The 1-month forward is currently trading below EUR 27 per MWh, which is the lowest level in 20 months, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes. EU Gas storage levels remain critically low"Gas storage levels in the EU are significantly lower than last year and lower than usual for this time of year, at 74%. The situation is even more critical in Germany, where Gas storage levels are only at 65.6%. The reason given for the complacency of market participants is the significantly milder temperatures expected in the coming week and abundant (LNG) imports." "However, this is a very short-sighted view, as winter has only just begun and is likely to bring several more cold spells. BNEF estimates that, based on average withdrawals over the last ten winters, Gas levels in the EU would fall to around 30% by the end of winter. However, a cold spell at the end of December would be enough to cause levels to fall to 28% by the end of March.""With the recent rise in US Natural Gas prices to a three-year high of the equivalent of EUR 14.8 per MWh, the price difference between TTF and the US Henry Hub price is at its lowest level in three years, making US LNG deliveries to Europe less attractive. This is because the costs of liquefaction, cooling, and transport must also be taken into account, which are likely to consume most of the current price gap. The relaxed attitude of market participants could therefore be delusive when the next cold spell arrives and LNG deliveries to Europe are lower."

14:16 Saudi Arabia lowers selling prices again – Commerzbank
Saudi Arabia has reduced its official selling prices for January Oil deliveries, with Asian customers now paying only $0.60 per barrel above the Oman/Dubai benchmark.

Saudi Arabia has reduced its official selling prices for January Oil deliveries, with Asian customers now paying only $0.60 per barrel above the Oman/Dubai benchmark. The move, the lowest premium in five years, reflects subdued demand and may prompt other OPEC nations to lower their prices as well, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes. OPEC likely to follow Saudi pricing lead"Saudi Arabia has further reduced its official selling prices (OSPs) for Oil deliveries in January. Customers in Asia now only need to pay a premium of 60 US cents per barrel on top of the Oman/Dubai benchmark for Arab Light." "In December, the premium was USD 1, and in November it was more than USD 2. The last time the price premium was lower than next month was five years ago, during the coronavirus pandemic." "Back then, OSPs were even significantly negative in some cases. Saudi Arabia is apparently only able to bring the higher export volumes onto the market at reduced selling prices, which indicates that demand is subdued. The other OPEC countries are also likely to adjust their selling prices downwards in the coming days, as Saudi Arabia usually sets the tone for pricing."

14:08 Russian Oil exports rose significantly in late November – Commerzbank
Russia exported nearly 3.94 million barrels of Crude Oil per day last week, marking a 20% increase from the prior week despite US sanctions.

Russia exported nearly 3.94 million barrels of Crude Oil per day last week, marking a 20% increase from the prior week despite US sanctions. A record volume of Russian Crude now sits in tankers at sea, raising questions about demand even as production bottlenecks push exports higher, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes. Russian seaborne Oil exports spike to highest since September"Russia exported significantly more Crude Oil by sea last week than in previous weeks. According to Bloomberg data based on tanker data, seaborne shipments rose to 3.94 million barrels per day in the week ending November 30. That was a good 20% more than in the previous week and the highest level since early September. The less volatile 4-week average also rose to 3.46 million barrels per day.""The increase in exports can be explained by the fact that, due to the ongoing Ukrainian drone attacks on Oil refineries in Russia, less Crude Oil can be processed and therefore more is available for export. The increase in Oil exports comes as a surprise, as US sanctions against Russia's two largest Oil companies came into effect just before the reporting week." "However, the increase in exports does not automatically mean that there are buyers for the Oil. According to Bloomberg, more than 180 million barrels of Russian Oil were in tankers at sea at the end of November, representing a 21% increase within three months. Some of the ships are likely to be sailing without a specific destination, looking for a buyer."

14:05 SNB preview: High bar to a cut, hold at 0% – NOMURA
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is expected to maintain its policy rate at 0% despite weak inflation and GDP growth, citing high barriers to negative rates.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is expected to maintain its policy rate at 0% despite weak inflation and GDP growth, citing high barriers to negative rates. Following limited interventions in 2024, the SNB remains willing to use FX purchases to manage disinflation while forecasting steady growth into 2026, NOMURA's Research Analysts report. On hold at 0.00% despite low inflation and falling GDP"We expect the SNB to leave its policy rate unchanged at 0.00% at its 11 December meeting.""The latest inflation and GDP growth data were both weak. However, we expect the SNB to forecast inflation to rise again and continued GDP growth in 2026, so a rate cut will likely not be required, particularly as the bar to a negative policy rate is high.""The SNB purchased CHF5.1bn of FX in Q2 following limited interventions in 2024, suggesting it remains willing to use this policy tool to curb disinflation."

14:03 Mexico Consumer Confidence s.a fell from previous 46.1 to 44.2 in November
Mexico Consumer Confidence s.a fell from previous 46.1 to 44.2 in November

14:03 Mexico Consumer Confidence declined to 44 in November from previous 45.7
Mexico Consumer Confidence declined to 44 in November from previous 45.7

14:01 China's imports at the start of the week – Commerzbank
Since the beginning of October, the price of a barrel of Brent crude Oil has fluctuated mainly between USD 60 and 65. This is unlikely to change in the coming week, as factors supporting and weighing on prices are likely to balance each other out.

Since the beginning of October, the price of a barrel of Brent crude Oil has fluctuated mainly between USD 60 and 65. This is unlikely to change in the coming week, as factors supporting and weighing on prices are likely to balance each other out. At the beginning of the week, China's crude Oil imports are of particular interest, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht notes. China’s Oil Imports remain robust amid high diesel crack spreads"According to the IEA, Chinese Oil demand this year is likely to be only 100,000 barrels per year higher than last year, but crude Oil imports in the first ten months were 400,000 barrels per day higher than in the same period last year. We expect imports to remain high in November. Part of this is likely to continue to flow into the build-up of strategic reserves. Recently, the very high crack spreads on the diesel market provided a strong incentive for crude Oil processing. We therefore assume that imports were also very robust in November and will support prices.""On the other hand, the new forecasts from the energy agencies out during the coming week are likely to weigh on prices. Although no major corrections are expected, they would continue to point to an oversupply on the Oil market in the coming year. Last month, the EIA revised its Oil price expectations slightly upward. This was mainly due to tougher sanctions against Russia and higher stockpiling in China. Higher prices and a recent surprise increase in production were decisive factors in raising the forecast for US production slightly (see figure). It is questionable whether further upward corrections will follow."

13:59 Gold trades steady as markets brace for delayed US PCE data
Gold (XAU/USD) trades marginally higher on Friday, oscillating within the familiar range that has defined price action this week, as dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations keep the precious metal broadly supported.

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At the time of writing, XAU/USD is hovering near $4,222, with investors turning their focus to the delayed US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data due later in the day.Markets will closely parse the PCE release as the final checkpoint ahead of next week’s Fed interest rate decision. Recent labour indicators have delivered mixed signals but have done little to shift expectations, with investors still largely convinced that the Fed is on track to deliver another interest rate cut.In addition to PCE, the US docket includes Personal Income, Personal Spending and the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, accompanied by updates on 1-year and 5-year inflation expectations. Together, these releases will shape expectations for the Fed’s monetary policy path and could influence Gold’s near-term direction.Market movers: Fed outlook and Russia-Ukraine peace talks in focusA steady US Dollar (USD) and firmer US Treasury yields are limiting the metals’ upside for now. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading around 99.00 after recovering from an intraday dip, while the benchmark 10-year yield sits near 4.108%, close to a two-week high, keeping Gold’s gains in check despite a broadly supportive Fed outlook.Recent US labour data show ADP Employment Change falling by 32,000 in November, sharply missing expectations for a 5,000 increase after a revised 47,000 gain in October. Challenger Job Cuts dropped to 71.3K from 153.1K, while Initial Jobless Claims declined to 191K, beating expectations for 220K and down from 218K last week.These labour indicators are among the few data points the Fed has ahead of its policy decision. October and November Nonfarm Payrolls will be released together on December 16, which comes after the meeting. The next key update before the decision will be next week’s JOLTS Job Openings report.According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets assign about an 87% probability of a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut at the December 9-10 monetary policy meeting.Elsewhere, geopolitical tensions remain in focus as Russia-Ukraine peace efforts show little progress. The Kremlin described recent talks with US envoys as “encouraging,” yet key territorial disagreements persist, keeping uncertainty elevated and offering a layer of support for safe-haven assets such as Gold.Technical analysis: XAU/USD needs a break above $4,250 to regain traction
XAU/USD continues to trade sideways after breaking out of a symmetrical triangle pattern, with a lack of follow-through buying keeping upside attempts capped near $4,250. On the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD is hovering around the 21-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), reflecting a neutral short-term bias. However, the broader uptrend remains intact and any dips are still likely to attract buyers.On the upside, a clear break above $4,250 is needed to revive bullish momentum, opening the door toward $4,300 and potentially a retest of the all-time high near $4,381.
On the downside, support is seen at the lower edge of the recent consolidation zone around $4,160-4,170, followed by the 100-period SMA near $4,141.Momentum indicators paint a neutral-to-bullish picture. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is narrowing toward the zero line while remaining slightly negative, indicating fading bearish pressure as the MACD line holds just below the signal line near the midpoint. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 58 signals steady momentum without strong directional conviction. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

13:57 USD/INR nears record high as RBI cuts rates – BBH
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut its policy rate by 25bps to 5.25%, supporting economic growth amid a benign inflation outlook. USD/INR hovers just below record highs as markets price in a floor for rates, with potential future hikes over the next two years, BBH FX analysts report.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut its policy rate by 25bps to 5.25%, supporting economic growth amid a benign inflation outlook. USD/INR hovers just below record highs as markets price in a floor for rates, with potential future hikes over the next two years, BBH FX analysts report. RBI lowers policy rate to 5.25% amid benign inflation"USD/INR firmed back up to 90.0000, a touch below yesterday’s record high of 90.4248. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) delivered on expectations and cut the policy rate 25bps cut to 5.25%. The RBI monetary policy committee unanimously backed the cut, stating 'the benign inflation outlook continues to provide the policy space to support the growth momentum'." "The swaps curve shows the policy rate has reached a floor at 5.25%, with rate hikes priced in over the next two years. The risk is the RBI eases again which is a drag for INR. India core inflation excluding gold is near the lower-end the RBI’s 2%-6% target range and tariff related developments are likely to decelerate growth in the coming quarters."

13:50 BoJ poised for December rate hike – Commerzbank
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is set to raise interest rates to 0.75% this month, sending USD/JPY lower as the Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is set to raise interest rates to 0.75% this month, sending USD/JPY lower as the Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens. Further BoJ hikes and stronger-than-expected Fed cuts could narrow the US-Japan rate gap to 150bps by year-end 2026, supporting additional yen gains, Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes. Yen gains as market prices stronger Japanese rates"Another Japanese interest rate hike is approaching. While the first signs that decision-makers were considering such a move at the December meeting emerged in September, the signals have intensified since then. Reports have emerged overnight that decision-makers are ready for the hike, provided there are no unexpected shocks before the meeting in just under two weeks. The Bank of Japan's intention to raise interest rates to 0.75% this month could hardly be clearer.""If inflation remains above the central bank's target for such a long time, decision-makers risk losing credibility. I was also critical of the BoJ's interest rate hikes in 2024 because we simply did not see the 'second force' identified by the BoJ, i.e. sustained domestic inflationary pressure driven by services. However, a central bank cannot afford to ignore volatile components indefinitely. In recent decades, excessive inflation has not been an issue in Japan, so market participants are likely to tolerate a prolonged period of high inflation. But at some point, that will no longer be the case.""The fact that the market is now pricing in stronger Japanese interest rate hikes is finally benefiting the yen – after many weeks of higher levels, USD/JPY is finally trending lower again. There is probably potential for even lower levels, i.e. a stronger yen. We expect another BoJ interest rate hike in April (to 1%), and anticipate stronger Fed interest rate cuts than the market expects. Ultimately, therefore, the interest rate differential is likely to fall to 150 basis points by the end of next year, with the yen appreciating accordingly against the US dollar."

13:41 USD/JPY hits fresh lows as Yen strengthens – MUFG
USD/JPY fell to 154.35 as the Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens amid growing expectations for a Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike this month.

USD/JPY fell to 154.35 as the Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens amid growing expectations for a Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike this month. Markets anticipate a 25bp BoJ hike on 14 December, with two additional hikes next year likely to lift the policy rate to 1.25% by end-2026, MUFG's FX analysts Lee Hardman and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart report.BoJ rate hike expectations lift Yen"The yen has continued to strengthen during the Asian trading session resulting USD/JPY falling to a fresh low of 154.35. It leaves the yen on track to record its second consecutive week of gains against the US dollar. The yen has benefitted this week from building expectations for the BoJ to resume rate hikes this month." "The Bloomberg report provides confirmation that recent comments from BoJ officials including Governor Ueda were intended to signal to market participants that rates would be raised this month, and that the government will not stand in their way. The report did note though that the final decision over a rate hike will be made at the last minute after assessing all economic data and information. ""The latest Tankan survey is scheduled to be released ahead of the next BoJ policy meeting on 14th December, and unless there is a significant downside surprise to business confidence we expect the BoJ to hike rates by 25bps this month. We then expect the BoJ to stick to a gradual pace of tightening, forecasting two rates hikes (every six months) next year lifting the policy rate up to 1.25% by the end of 2026."

13:36 USD/CAD trades heavy ahead of Canada’s labor data – BBH
USD/CAD is under pressure near 1.3940 as markets await Canada’s November labor force survey, with modest job losses expected. The Bank of Canada (BOC) is likely done cutting rates, while upcoming USMCA talks remain a potential downside risk for the Canadian economy, BBH FX analysts report.

USD/CAD is under pressure near 1.3940 as markets await Canada’s November labor force survey, with modest job losses expected. The Bank of Canada (BOC) is likely done cutting rates, while upcoming USMCA talks remain a potential downside risk for the Canadian economy, BBH FX analysts report. BOC seen on hold amid subdued hiring outlook"USD/CAD is trading heavy near 1.3940. Canada’s November labor force survey is up next (1:30pm London, 8:30am New York). The economy is expected to lose -2.5k jobs in November after surprising with strong gains of 66.6k and 60.4k in October and September, respectively. The Q3 business outlook survey indicates subdued hiring intentions over the next 12 months.""So long as labor weakness doesn’t deepen or widen, the Bank of Canada (BOC) is finished cutting. The swaps market implies steady rates at 2.25% over the next twelve months and a 25bps hike to 2.50% in the next two years. USD/CAD needs to sustain a break below its 200-day moving average (1.3913) to gain downside traction.""The upcoming review of the United States-Mexico-Canada trade agreement (USMCA) is an ongoing source of uncertainty and a downside risk to Canada’s economy. Businesses and consumers may be cautious as they wait for more clarity about the future of USMCA. The first six-year joint review of the USMCA is scheduled for July 1, 2026."

13:30 India FX Reserves, USD fell from previous $688.1B to $686.23B in November 24
India FX Reserves, USD fell from previous $688.1B to $686.23B in November 24

13:28 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD rises to near $4,230, remains broadly confined above 20-day EMA
Gold price (XAU/USD) gains 0.4% to near $4,230 during the European trading session on Friday. The yellow metal trades firmly, but is confided in a tight range between $4,164 and $4,265 for the last four trading days.

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The yellow metal trades firmly, but is confided in a tight range between $4,164 and $4,265 for the last four trading days.The outlook of the precious metal remains bullish as the Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely anticipated to cut interest rates in its monetary policy announcement on Wednesday. Lower interest rates by the Fed bode well for non-yielding assets, such as Gold.According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.50%-3.75% in the December policy meeting is 87%. Fed dovish expectations are prompted by weakening United States (US) labor market conditions.With expectations pointing to a 25-bps interest rate reduction, investors will pay more attention to the monetary policy guidance of 2026. Fed officials are expected to adopt a restrictive monetary policy outlook as inflation remains well above the 2% target for months.During the European session, the US Dollar (USD) strives to hold its immediate lows, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) trading cautiously near the five-week low around 98.75.Gold technical analysisIn the daily chart, XAU/USD trades around $4,190 during Friday’s European trading hours. The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $4,147.96 rises, with price holding above it to maintain a positive bias. Pullbacks toward the 20-day EMA would find support while its slope stays higher.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) rebounds after bending to near 60.00, suggesting that the momentum will remain in play until it holds that level.The 20-day EMA remains positively aligned, keeping dip-buying interest in play. The rising trend line from the October 28 low of $3,933.90 underpins the bias, offering support near $4,110. A daily close below that line would flag a deeper pullback towards the psychological level of $4,000, while holding above it would leave scope for an extension of the advance.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool) Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

13:23 US Dollar Index (DXY) Price Forecast: Hovering at the key 99.00 level
The US Dollar remains practically flat at the key 99.00 level on Friday after having picked up from fresh one-month lows at 98.80 on Thursday.

13:17 DXY: FX markets quiet as USD volatility hits yearly lows – ING
US Dollar (USD) weakness is expected to continue into year-end, supported by seasonal flows and stable Treasury markets. Commodity currencies are performing well, while EUR/USD and USD/JPY target 1.18 and 152, respectively, amid subdued FX volatility, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

US Dollar (USD) weakness is expected to continue into year-end, supported by seasonal flows and stable Treasury markets. Commodity currencies are performing well, while EUR/USD and USD/JPY target 1.18 and 152, respectively, amid subdued FX volatility, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.Commodity-linked currencies outperform ahead of year-end"FX markets are relatively quiet. US interest rate volatility embodied in the MOVE index has dropped back to the lows of the year. Certainly, the stability of the US Treasury market has been one of the big surprises of 2025. As we move nearer to year-end in FX, we see the commodity currencies doing pretty well – or more precisely, the commodity currencies backed by metals.""Looking at two-year US real interest rates derived from the two-year inflation swap, real rates actually rose 25bp between September and November, largely on a 50bp decline in inflation expectations. The scenario from a Hassett pick would surely be lower real rates as inflation expectations pick up. This should deliver a weaker dollar.""For the short term, however, there seems to be a consensus view that the dollar will weaken into year-end on seasonal flows. That is our view too, and why we have year-end targets at 1.18 and 152 for EUR/USD and USD/JPY, respectively. The longer DXY can trade under 99.00, the more likely it is a drop to the 97.80/98.00 area."

13:04 USD consolidates near weekly lows amid weak labor data – BBH
US Dollar (USD) is consolidating this week’s losses and trading near the lows of the week. Global equity markets keep grinding higher while long-term sovereign bond yields remain under modest upside pressure.

US Dollar (USD) is consolidating this week’s losses and trading near the lows of the week. Global equity markets keep grinding higher while long-term sovereign bond yields remain under modest upside pressure. US 10-year Treasury yields are up nearly 10bps this month to 4.11%, mostly reflecting firmer inflation expectations. 10-year Treasury yields have been range-bound between 3.95%-4.20% over the past three months, BBH FX analysts report. Fed rate cut bets gain traction as job growth slows"US weekly jobless claims confirm there is no layoff spiral underway. Initial claims for the week ended November 29 dropped to 191k (consensus: 220k) vs. 218k the previous week, just shy of the September 2022 record low of 189k.""Nevertheless, US labor demand is weak. Revelio labs non-farm employment (private and public) fell -9k in November vs. -15.4k in October. That data comes on the heels of a poor ADP print, which showed private sector employers shed -32k jobs in November. We see rising risk that the Fed front-loads rate cuts toward neutral levels (near 3%) to prevent the hiring slump from morphing into widespread firing. That can further weigh on USD.""The September Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) report is due today (3:00pm London, 10:00am New York). Headline and core PCE deflators are both expected at 2.8% y/y vs. 2.7% and 2.9% in August, respectively. While progress towards the Fed’s 2% inflation goal is stalling, upside risks to prices are not martializing, leaving room for the Fed to ease policy. The ISM prices paid indexes point to moderating inflation pressures."

13:00 UoM Consumer Sentiment Index expected to post a mild recovery in December
The United States (US) will see the release of the preliminary estimate of December’s University of Michigan's (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index on Friday.

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December’s preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is forecast to have picked up to 52 from a three-year low of 51.0 in NovemberA stalled labour market and higher price pressures are likely to weigh on consumers’ confidence.UoM Consumer Sentiment’s pick up is unlikely to provide significant support to an ailing US DollarThe United States (US) will see the release of the preliminary estimate of December’s University of Michigan's (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index on Friday. The report is expected to reflect a moderate improvement in consumers’ confidence, with the UoM Consumer Sentiment Index forecast to bounce to 52 after reaching a three-year low of 51 last month.November’s data also revealed a sharp deterioration in consumers’ views about the current economic conditions, with the index dropping to 51.1 from 58.6 in October. The Economic Expectations Index, on the other hand, improved slightly to 51 from 50.3 in October.The Consumer Sentiment Index is a monthly survey conducted by the UoM that compiles data on US consumers’ views on their personal finances, business conditions, and purchasing plans. The report is disclosed together with the UoM Consumer Expectations Index and the UoM Consumer Inflation Expectations.

Two weeks later, the University of Michigan will release the final Consumer Sentiment Index report.Household consumption accounts for about two-thirds of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In that sense, the UoM Consumer Sentiment Index is regarded as an accurate forward-looking indicator for US economic trends, and its release tends to have a significant impact on US Dollar (USD) crosses.December’s release will be the first after a record-long US shutdown, and investors will be eager to see the impact of the government’s reopening, even though the market consensus does not show any relevant improvement.

A stalled labour market and higher prices are likely to remain the biggest concerns for US consumers, keeping the Michigan Consumer Sentiment near historic lows. The 52 expected level would be an improvement from the 51 seen in November, but it marks a nearly 30% decline from the 74 reading seen in December last year.November’s official report pointed to the increasing prices and lower income as the main reasons for the deterioration in sentiment: “Consumers remain frustrated about the persistence of high prices and weakening incomes. This month, current personal finances and buying conditions for durables both plunged more than 10%, whereas expectations for the future improved modestly,” says the report.Regarding prices, the moderating inflationary trends have not eased consumers’ frustration: “Despite these improvements in the future trajectory of inflation, consumers continue to report that their personal finances now are weighed down by the present state of high prices.”Source: University of Michigan

When will the UoM Consumer Sentiment Index be released, and how could it affect US Dollar?The University of Michigan will release its Consumer Sentiment Index, together with the Consumer Inflation Expectations survey, on Friday at 15:00 GMT. The market expects a slight improvement in consumer sentiment, although most likely insufficient to provide a significant impulse to an ailing US Dollar.

The Greenback has been the worst-performing G8 currency in November. Dovish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, coupled with a batch of weak macroeconomic indicators, namely Retail Sales and Manufacturing activity, have revived fears about the momentum of the US economy and prompted investors to ramp up bets of a Fed interest rate cut in December.

Beyond that, news that White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett is the best positioned to replace Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the end of his term in May, is fuelling hopes of further monetary policy easing in 2026. With the rest of the world’s major central banks at the end of their easing cycles, the monetary policy divergence with the US Federal Reserve is crushing the US Dollar.DXY Daily Chart

According to Guillermo Alcala, FX Analyst at FXStreet, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has broken an important support area at 99.00: “The pair has confirmed a double top at the 100.35 area, after breaching the pattern’s neckline, near 99.00, which is holding bulls at the time of writing. Failure to return above that level would increase bearish pressure towards the October 28 low at 98.57 and the October 17 low near 98.00. The double top’s measured target is near the October 1 and 2 lows, around 97.50.”

To the upside, Alcalá sees resistances at 99.55 and in the 100.00 area: “Upside attempts are likely to be challenged at the November 30 and December 2 highs near 99.55 and the 100.00 psychological level, ahead of the five-month highs, in the area of 100.35 (November 5 and 21 highs).” Economic Indicator Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, released on a monthly basis by the University of Michigan, is a survey gauging sentiment among consumers in the United States. The questions cover three broad areas: personal finances, business conditions and buying conditions. The data shows a picture of whether or not consumers are willing to spend money, a key factor as consumer spending is a major driver of the US economy. The University of Michigan survey has proven to be an accurate indicator of the future course of the US economy. The survey publishes a preliminary, mid-month reading and a final print at the end of the month. Generally, a high reading is bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is bearish. Read more. Next release: Fri Dec 05, 2025 15:00 (Prel) Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 52 Previous: 51 Source: University of Michigan Why it matters to traders? Consumer exuberance can translate into greater spending and faster economic growth, implying a stronger labor market and a potential pick-up in inflation, helping turn the Fed hawkish. This survey’s popularity among analysts (mentioned more frequently than CB Consumer Confidence) is justified because the data here includes interviews conducted up to a day or two before the official release, making it a timely measure of consumer mood, but foremost because it gauges consumer attitudes on financial and income situations. Actual figures beating consensus tend to be USD bullish. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.

12:53 Japan’s Kiuchi: Hopes BoJ to work in line with government’s principals
Japan's economy minister, Minoru Kiuchi, said during Friday’s European trading session that the government will not interfere in Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) decisions on monetary policy.

12:47 EUR: Euro climbs toward 1.1700 amid broad USD weakness – MUFG
The Euro (EUR) is on track for a second weekly gain versus the US Dollar (USD), supported by expectations of a narrowing policy gap between the Fed and ECB.

The Euro (EUR) is on track for a second weekly gain versus the US Dollar (USD), supported by expectations of a narrowing policy gap between the Fed and ECB. While political risks in France and Germany persist, the euro is expected to maintain its upward momentum over the next 6-12 months, MUFG's FX analysts Lee Hardman and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart report.Political risks in France, Germany eye market attention"The euro is on track for its second consecutive week of gains against the US dollar. It has helped to lift EUR/USD back up closer to the 1.1700-level as the US dollar has weakened broadly ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting. The euro is benefitting from market expectations that the policy divergence between the Fed and ECB will continue narrow going forward as the Fed keeps lowering rates back to neutral while the ECB has already arrived there, and is more likely to leave rates on hold now." "Political risks in the euro-zone mainly in France have dampened the euro’s upward momentum in recent months. The French government still has to pass a budget for next year which has the potential to trigger a renewed flare up in political risk before year end, although we assume they will carry over the current budget and try again early next year if parliament fails to pass next year’s budget in time.""Bloomberg is also reporting that political risks in Germany may attract some market attention today. The ruling coalition government’s pension bill will be voted on today with the final ballot in the Bundestag scheduled for around 12.30pm local time and result expected to be announced at around 1pm. It has been reported that there is a risk the bill could be rejected. While we remain wary of political risks in Europe, we do not expect them to derail our outlook for the euro to strengthen further against the US dollar over the next 6-12 months."

12:38 JPY gains as BoJ hikes support currency – ING
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is finding support from expected BoJ rate hikes, with markets pricing a 25bp move for December 19. USD/JPY is projected to reach 152 by year-end, with a modest 148 forecast for 2026 as Japan balances reflation and currency strength, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is finding support from expected BoJ rate hikes, with markets pricing a 25bp move for December 19. USD/JPY is projected to reach 152 by year-end, with a modest 148 forecast for 2026 as Japan balances reflation and currency strength, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.USD/JPY set for modest year-end pullback"October's spike in USD/JPY above 150 came as a shock to many. And by mid-November, most had concluded there was little that could turn USD/JPY around apart from heavy official intervention at 160. Additionally, we've been asked several times whether the yen is losing its safe-haven status. We've replied that the benign risk environment means the yen has not seriously been tested on that score.""However, it now seems that the prospect of Bank of Japan hikes is finally supporting the yen. A 25bp hike is virtually priced for the 19 December meeting and the 1m JPY OIS rate, priced two years' forward, has moved to 1.47% from 1.14% in the last month alone. The view here seems to be that the new Japanese government, despite its reflationary credentials, does not want to embrace a weak yen and will allow BoJ rate hikes.""We've got a modest 152 target for USD/JPY by year-end. And also a modest 148 forecast for year-end 2026."

12:35 China lays out plans to boost consumption
China’s Commerce Ministry stated during the European trading session on Friday that the government aims to revive the overall demand, laid out plans to propel the same.

12:21 USD/JPY decouples from yield spreads – MUFG
USD/JPY has broken its historical link to US–Japan yield spreads, with correlations turning negative as Japan-specific risks dominate.

USD/JPY has broken its historical link to US–Japan yield spreads, with correlations turning negative as Japan-specific risks dominate. Fiscal concerns under the new administration may keep the yen weak even if rate differentials continue to compress, MUFG's FX analysts Lee Hardman and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart report.USD/JPY fair balue divergence widens"The recent relationship between USD/JPY and US-JP yield spreads confirms a structural shift in USD/JPY dynamics. Historically, the pair has closely tracked short-term US-JP rate differentials, making the 2-year spread a core input in our short-term fair value model alongside implied volatility, risk reversals, and other macro features." "However, since October, our regression models have shown a persistent mis-valuation between spot and the fair value. This divergence coincides with a sharp drop in correlation between USD/JPY returns and US-JP yield spreads: prior to October 2025, the 12-week rolling correlation with the 10-year spread averaged +0.43, peaking at 0.91 in February, whereas post-October 2025 the average correlation collapsed to -0.07 with eight consecutive negative weeks through to the present." "We interpret this as USD/JPY price action reflecting Japan-centric risk factors rather than US rate dynamics. This shift is driven by fiscal uncertainty triggered by Sanae Takaichi becoming prime minister and the bigger extra budget. Consequently, the upcoming policy decisions from the BoJ and Fed may exert less directional pull on USD/JPY than in prior regimes. If fiscal concerns persist the yen could remain weak even as yield spreads continue to narrow."

12:20 USD/CAD holds losses near 1.3930 with US Inflation, Canada’s Jobs on tap
The US Dollar remains pinned near monthly lows at 1.3930 on Friday, on track to a 0.2% weekly decline, following another 0.9% drop in the previous week, with all eyes on Canada’s employment figures and the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Prices Index releases, due later today.Recent US em

12:01 GBP rally seen as short squeeze, not repricing of UK risk – ING
The Pound Sterling (GBP) remains firm, though analysts view the move as a short squeeze rather than a fundamental reassessment of UK risk. While GBP/USD may rise into year-end, BoE easing should keep EUR/GBP supported around 0.88, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) remains firm, though analysts view the move as a short squeeze rather than a fundamental reassessment of UK risk. While GBP/USD may rise into year-end, BoE easing should keep EUR/GBP supported around 0.88, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.GBP/USD targeted at 1.34 as Dollar softens"Sterling continues to do well. We doubt this represents a major reassessment of UK sovereign risk, although we note that the 10-year Gilt swap spread has held onto its modest narrowing and is now at 48bp. This stood at 58bp in late September. We prefer to see the current sterling rally as a short squeeze.""We are a little bearish on the dollar and have a year-end GBP/USD target at 1.34. But we also favour some sterling underperformance against the euro as the Bank of England restarts its easing cycle this December. That should mean EUR/GBP does not spend too much time in the low 0.87s and should be back near 0.88 or above by year-end."

12:01 Greece Gross Domestic Product s.a (YoY): 2% (3Q) vs 1.7%
Greece Gross Domestic Product s.a (YoY): 2% (3Q) vs 1.7%

12:01 Eurozone Employment Change (YoY) came in at 0.6%, above forecasts (0.5%) in 3Q
Eurozone Employment Change (YoY) came in at 0.6%, above forecasts (0.5%) in 3Q

12:00 Eurozone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) meets forecasts (1.4%) in 3Q
Eurozone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) meets forecasts (1.4%) in 3Q

12:00 Eurozone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) above expectations (0.2%) in 3Q: Actual (0.3%)
Eurozone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) above expectations (0.2%) in 3Q: Actual (0.3%)

12:00 Eurozone Employment Change (QoQ) above expectations (0.1%) in 3Q: Actual (0.2%)
Eurozone Employment Change (QoQ) above expectations (0.1%) in 3Q: Actual (0.2%)

11:59 USD/INR extends uptrend toward 90.80–91.00 – Société Générale
USD/INR remains in a firm uptrend after July’s breakout, with scope to test the upper channel at 90.80–91.00, Société Générale's FX analysts note.

USD/INR remains in a firm uptrend after July’s breakout, with scope to test the upper channel at 90.80–91.00, Société Générale's FX analysts note. Rupee under pressure as Dollar rally stretches higher"USD/INR has experienced a steady uptrend after breakout from a base in July. It has carved out an interim high near 90.45 earlier this week. While the move appears somewhat stretched, there are no clear signals of a reversal yet.""If a short-term pullback occurs, the 50-DMA near 88.70 is likely to be an important support. The next objective could be located near the upper limit of a multi-month channel at 90.80/91.00."

11:55 Euro hedging costs collapse, supporting EUR/USD – ING
Eurozone hedging costs on U.S. assets are falling sharply, reinforcing tailwinds for EUR/USD as the Fed easing cycle approaches. Near term, the pair should stay supported around 1.1630/40 with scope to test 1.1700–1.1730, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

Eurozone hedging costs on U.S. assets are falling sharply, reinforcing tailwinds for EUR/USD as the Fed easing cycle approaches. Near term, the pair should stay supported around 1.1630/40 with scope to test 1.1700–1.1730, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.ECB’s Lane to speak on global imbalances today"The cost for eurozone bond investors to FX hedge their US investments is tumbling. Using three-month forwards, the cost to hedge US risk back into the euro has now dropped to 1.82% per annum from 2.45% back in July. That is a big deal for a bond investor trying to pick up, say, an extra 150bp by investing in US markets. These US hedging costs are expected to drop further as the Fed cuts rates. And these dollar sales from the eurozone buy-side should be a key factor driving EUR/USD higher in 2026.""For today, the eurozone calendar is light. This afternoon, we have a speech from ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane. The subject is global imbalances. Expect to hear more about the international role of the euro and further strong encouragement for politicians to push through reforms, such that the euro can take advantage of the move to a multipolar world.""Back to the short term, and we have a slight bias that EUR/USD trades to 1.1700/1730 and continues to find support in the 1.1630/40 area."

11:44 USD/CAD tests key 200-DMA support zone – Société Générale
USD/CAD is pressing into major support at the 200-day average and the base of its multi-month channel near 1.3920/1.3880, Société Générale's FX analysts note.

USD/CAD is pressing into major support at the 200-day average and the base of its multi-month channel near 1.3920/1.3880, Société Générale's FX analysts note. Break below 1.3880 opens path to 1.3830, 1.3770"USD/CAD has pulled back towards the lower limit of a multi-month channel and the 200-DMA at 1.3920/1.3880. It will be interesting to see if the pair can maintain above this zone. A brief bounce is possible, however, recent highs near 1.4150 may provide resistance." "In case the pair fails to defend the moving average, the decline may extend. The next objectives could be located at 1.3830 and September low of 1.3770/1.3725."

11:30 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Friday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $58.00 per troy ounce, up 1.56% from the $57.11 it cost on Thursday.

11:15 GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Pound found resistance at 207.35 area
The Pound is in a positive trend against the Yen. The pair has rallied about 3.5% from early November lows, although the rally has stalled this week, with bulls failing to find follow-through beyond the 2076.35 area.

11:00 Italy Retail Sales n.s.a (YoY): 1.3% (October) vs 0.5%
Italy Retail Sales n.s.a (YoY): 1.3% (October) vs 0.5%

11:00 Italy Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) above expectations (0.4%) in October: Actual (0.5%)
Italy Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) above expectations (0.4%) in October: Actual (0.5%)

10:59 Pound Sterling sees more upside on UK budget-relief rally, upwardly revised PMI
The Pound Sterling (GBP) strives to extend its recent rally against its major currency peers on Friday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Pound Sterling aims to extend its upside further due to multiple tailwinds.UK S&P Global Composite PMI is revised higher to 51.2 in November.Investors expect both the Fed and the BoE to cut interest rates this month.The Pound Sterling (GBP) strives to extend its recent rally against its major currency peers on Friday. The British currency has been outperforming its peers for over a week, prompted by the United Kingdom (UK) budget announced on November 26, and an upward revision in the S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for November.The budget announced by Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves last week unveiled the Labour Party’s plans to raise 26 billion pounds in taxes to fill the fiscal hole without having a material burden on households.Financial market participants were worried before the budget announcement that the government might go against its self-imposed fiscal rules to address welfare spending measures, a scenario that could have promoted UK gilt yields. However, the government passed the bond market test and also presented large-scale investment plans.On Wednesday, the S&P Global reported that the Composite PMI rose to 51.2 against the preliminary reading of 50.5, which diminished fears of muted business activity.Going forward, the major trigger for the Pound Sterling will be market expectations for the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy outlook. The BoE is expected to cut interest rates in the next meeting on December 18 to support weakening job market conditions.Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling continues to outperform US DollarThe Pound Sterling trades 0.2% higher to near 1.3360 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Friday. The GBP/USD pair gains as the US Dollar retreats to near its five-week low, with traders remaining confident that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates in its monetary policy meeting next week.During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, falls back to near the five-week low around 98.75.According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.50%-3.75% in the December policy meeting is 87%.Firm Fed dovish expectations are backed by weakening US job market conditions. The US ADP reported on Wednesday that the private sector shed 32K jobs in November, while it was expected to add 5K fresh workers.The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in October also showed that policymakers acknowledged downside labor market risks and the need to loosen monetary conditions further. However, several members argued against reducing interest rates in December.In Friday’s session, investors will focus on the US Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for September, which will be released later in the day. However, its impact might be insignificant on expectations towards the Fed's next step as it is delayed data.Technical Analysis: GBP/USD aims to break above the 50% Fibonacci retracement near 1.3400The Pound Sterling trades firmly near its monthly high of 1.3385 against the US Dollar, posted on Thursday. The pair holds above a rising 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3227, maintaining a positive near-term bias. The 20-day EMA has sloped higher in recent sessions, and dips remain shallow.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 62.77 reflects bullish momentum.Momentum remains supportive, while price stays above the rising 20-day EMA. A daily close above the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3402 would reinforce the bullish tone and open room for continuation towards the October 17 high of 1.3471. Conversely, failure to breach that barrier would keep the pair consolidating, with pullbacks leaning toward the 38.2% Fibonacci area and trend support. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

10:34 EUR/USD holds gains with Eurozone GDP and US PCE inflation in focus
EUR/USD resumes gains on Friday, trading at 1.1660 at the time of writing, after bouncing from the 1.1640 area on Thursday. Downside attempts remain limited with markets bracing for a quarter-point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week.

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Downside attempts remain limited with markets bracing for a quarter-point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week. Economic data released on Thursday revealed that US initial Jobless Claims declined unexpectedly in the last week of November, although the figures might have been distorted by the Thanksgiving holidays.Beyond that, US Challenger Job Cuts declined by 53% in November, to 71,321 from 153,074 in October, although the report also showed that hiring plans remained stalled amid the uncertain economic context. In the Eurozone calendar, the third estimation of the Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the Employment Change of the same period will attract attention during the European session, although the main focus will be on September's delayed US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the last inflation gauge ahead of next week's Fed monetary policy meeting. Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.13% -0.15% -0.36% -0.07% -0.19% -0.14% -0.13% EUR 0.13% -0.02% -0.23% 0.06% -0.06% -0.01% 0.00% GBP 0.15% 0.02% -0.23% 0.08% -0.04% 0.01% 0.02% JPY 0.36% 0.23% 0.23% 0.29% 0.16% 0.20% 0.22% CAD 0.07% -0.06% -0.08% -0.29% -0.13% -0.08% -0.06% AUD 0.19% 0.06% 0.04% -0.16% 0.13% 0.05% 0.06% NZD 0.14% 0.00% -0.01% -0.20% 0.08% -0.05% 0.00% CHF 0.13% -0.00% -0.02% -0.22% 0.06% -0.06% -0.01% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote). Daily Digest Market Movers: US Dollar remains on the defensive amid Fed cutting hopesThe US Dollar remains the worst performer of the G8 currencies this week. The downbeat ADP Employment Change report seen earlier this week has cemented hopes that the Fed will cut rates next week, while in Europe, manufacturing activity data beat expectations, providing additional support to the Euro.On Thursday, Eurozone Retail Sales disappointed with a 0% growth in October, undershooting market expectations of a 0.1% growth. September's data was revised up to a 0.1% rise from the previously estimated 0.1% decline. The Euro pulled back after the release to pick up shortly afterwards.US Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 191,000 in the last week of November, their lowest level in three years, from 218,00 in the previous week. The market took these figures with caution, as job seekers might have left their unemployment claims on hold during the Thanksgiving holidays.Futures markets are pricing in an 87% chance of a 25 basis points Fed interest rate cut at their December 10 meeting, and between two and three more cuts next year, according to the CME Group's Fedwatch Tool. News about the possibility of White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett replacing Jerome Powell as the next Fed chairman is also weighing on the US Dollar. The Financial Times has reported that Bond investors have complained to the US Treasury, concerned that Hassett might carry on an aggressive easing cycle.In the Eurozone, the focus on Friday is on the Q3 GDP latest estimate, which is expected to confirm that the economy grew 0.2% QoQ and 1.4% YoY from the same period last year, from 0.1% and 1.5% respectively in Q2.The Eurozone Employment Change, also out this Friday, is seen growing 0.1% in the quarter and 0.5% year-on-year, unchanged from the previous month.Later on the day, the US PCE Price Index is expected to confirm that inflation remains sticky, with the headline reading accelerating to a 2.8% year-on-year reading, from 2.7% in August, and the core reading growing at a steady 2.9% yearly pace.
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD bulls remain capped below 1.1680EUR/USD 4-Hour Chart
EUR/USD maintains its immediate bullish trend intact, with downside attempts contained above trendline support, now at 1.1630, while the 1.1670-1.1680 area keeps holding bulls. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains steady above the 50 level, currently at 61, although the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has pulled back below the zero level, indicating that the bullish trend is losing steam.Bulls need to breach Thursday's high at 1.1682 to extend their rally towards the October 17 high, near 1.1730, ahead of the October 1 high, at 1.1778.

A bearish reaction below the mentioned 1.1630 level, on the contrary, might lure bears to retest the weekly lows at 1.1595. Further down, the November 26 and 28 lows in the 1.1550-1.1555 area emerge as the next targets. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

10:24 NZD/USD bounces up to fresh highs at 0.5780 amid US Dollar’s weakness
The New Zealand Dollar maintains its bullish trend against its US counterpart intact. Downside attempts have been contained above 0.5760, and the pair resumed its uptrend from mid-November lows, reaching monthly highs at 0.5780, with October 6 and 29 highs, in the 0.5800 area coming into focus.

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Downside attempts have been contained above 0.5760, and the pair resumed its uptrend from mid-November lows, reaching monthly highs at 0.5780, with October 6 and 29 highs, in the 0.5800 area coming into focus.The pair is on track to close the week with a nearly 3% rally over the last two weeks, fuelled by overall US Dollar weakness, as traders brace for a 25 basis points interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve next week, and for two or three more rate cuts next year.US employment data has boosted hopes of Fed easingThe unexpected decline in net jobs reported by the ADP Employment Change cemented hopes of a Fed interest rate cut next week. The key Nonfarm Payrolls report for November, which should be released on Friday, will be delayed until the second week of December due to a record-long US government shutdown that has delayed official data. In New Zealand, the calendar has been light this week, but the Kiwi remains supported by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) hawkish monetary policy stance. The bank cut rates by 25 basis points at their November meeting, but signalled the end of the easing cycle, which sent the NZD rallying against its main peers.On Tuesday, Anna Breman, the new RBNZ Governour, made her first public appearance at New Zealand’s Parliament to assure that she will be “laser focused on inflation”. These comments endorse the hawkish view and the monetary policy divergence with the US Federal Reserve, which is supporting the New Zealand Dollar’s rally. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

10:02 Switzerland Foreign Currency Reserves rose from previous 725B to 727B in November
Switzerland Foreign Currency Reserves rose from previous 725B to 727B in November

10:01 Austria Wholesale Prices n.s.a (MoM): 0.9% (November) vs -0.3%
Austria Wholesale Prices n.s.a (MoM): 0.9% (November) vs -0.3%

10:01 Austria Wholesale Prices n.s.a (YoY): 0.9% (November) vs 0.2%
Austria Wholesale Prices n.s.a (YoY): 0.9% (November) vs 0.2%

10:00 Spain Industrial Output Cal Adjusted (YoY) down to 1.2% in October from previous 1.7%
Spain Industrial Output Cal Adjusted (YoY) down to 1.2% in October from previous 1.7%

10:00 Austria Trade Balance: €-230.8M (September) vs €-1895.6M
Austria Trade Balance: €-230.8M (September) vs €-1895.6M

09:51 Japan’s Kihara: Remains vigilant to excessive, disorderly moves in FX market
Japan chief Cabinet secretary, Minoru Kihara said during the European trading session on Friday that the government will take appropriate steps to support the Japanese Yen (JPY) against excessive and disorderly moves in the FX market.

09:45 France Industrial Output (MoM) registered at 0.2% above expectations (-0.3%) in October
France Industrial Output (MoM) registered at 0.2% above expectations (-0.3%) in October

09:45 France Trade Balance EUR increased to €-3.92B in October from previous €-6.58B
France Trade Balance EUR increased to €-3.92B in October from previous €-6.58B

09:45 France Current Account climbed from previous €-1.6B to €1.1B in October
France Current Account climbed from previous €-1.6B to €1.1B in October

09:45 France Exports, EUR dipped from previous €51.92B to €51.7B in October
France Exports, EUR dipped from previous €51.92B to €51.7B in October

09:45 France Imports, EUR down to €55.7B in October from previous €58.5B
France Imports, EUR down to €55.7B in October from previous €58.5B

09:45 France Trade Balance EUR increased to €-3.9B in October from previous €-6.58B
France Trade Balance EUR increased to €-3.9B in October from previous €-6.58B

09:14 Crude oil price today: WTI price bearish at European opening
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Friday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $59.36 per barrel, down from Thursday’s close at $59.48.Brent Oil Exchange Rate (Brent crude) is also shedding ground, trading at $63.08 after its previous daily close at $63.16.

09:03 EUR/GBP trades flat above 0.8700 amid BoE rate cut speculation
The EUR/GBP cross trades on a flat note near 0.8735 during the early European session on Friday. Concerns over UK tax hikes and a dovish stance from the Bank of England (BoE) could exert downward pressure on the Pound Sterling.

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Signs of a slowing UK economy and rising bets of BoE interest rate cuts could drag the GBP lower. Money markets indicate a high probability that the ECB will keep interest rates unchanged in December. The EUR/GBP cross trades on a flat note near 0.8735 during the early European session on Friday. Concerns over UK tax hikes and a dovish stance from the Bank of England (BoE) could exert downward pressure on the Pound Sterling. Traders will take more cues from the third estimate of the Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Growth Rate from the Eurozone later on Friday. Signs of a weakening UK economy and the UK Autumn November budget have reinforced bets for a December rate cut from the BoE. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer emphasized the need to bring inflation and interest rates down to boost business investment and economic growth. The UK central bank is expected to cut its interest rates by 25 bps to 3.75% in the monetary policy announcement on December 18 amid a cooling UK job market. This, in turn, could undermine the GBP and create a tailwind for the cross.The European Central Bank (ECB) left its key interest rates unchanged at the October meeting, with the deposit rate at 2.00%. The next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for December 18. Financial markets project that rates will be kept on hold at the upcoming policy meeting and have significantly reduced expectations for cuts in 2026. Rising expectations that the ECB is done cutting interest rates could underpin the EUR against the GBP in the near term. Goldman Sachs analysts anticipate the deposit rate will stay at 2.0% throughout 2026 unless inflation significantly decreases. Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank economists see a probability of a 25 basis point (bps) rate hike by the end of 2026, citing inflationary pressure. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

09:02 Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) up to -0.7% in October from previous -4.3%
Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) up to -0.7% in October from previous -4.3%

09:02 Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) up to 1.5% in October from previous -4.3%
Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) up to 1.5% in October from previous -4.3%

09:00 United Kingdom Halifax House Prices (MoM) below forecasts (0.4%) in November: Actual (0%)
United Kingdom Halifax House Prices (MoM) below forecasts (0.4%) in November: Actual (0%)

09:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) registered at 1.5% above expectations (0.5%) in October
Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) registered at 1.5% above expectations (0.5%) in October

09:00 Canada Unemployment Rate expected to edge higher in November ahead of BoC rate decision
Statistics Canada will release its Labour Force Survey on Friday, and markets are bracing for a weak print. The Unemployment Rate is expected to tick higher to 7% in November, while the Employment Change is forecast to come in flat after a nice gain in October.

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50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Canadian Unemployment Rate is seen edging higher in November.Extra cooling of the labour market could reinforce additional rate cuts.The Canadian Dollar maintains its recovery in place so far this week.Statistics Canada will release its Labour Force Survey on Friday, and markets are bracing for a weak print. The Unemployment Rate is expected to tick higher to 7% in November, while the Employment Change is forecast to come in flat after a nice gain in October.A weaker report could strengthen the case for the Bank of Canada (BoC) to continue its easing cycle next week after cutting its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% at its October 29 gathering, following the September rate reduction.The Bank of Canada cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% in late October; no surprises there. In addition, policymakers said they think rates are now roughly where they need to be to keep inflation near target while still giving the economy a bit of support as it works through the fallout from the US-driven trade war.Markets do not expect the central bank to lower interest rates next week, while implied rates suggest a marginal tightening by the end of 2026.What can we expect from the next Canadian Unemployment Rate print?Consensus among market participants projects a slight rise in Canada’s Unemployment Rate to 7% last month, up from October’s 6.9%. Additionally, investors forecast the economy will add no jobs in November, reversing October’s 66.6K increase. It is worth recalling that Average Hourly Wages rose at an annualised 4% in October, pointing to sticky wage inflation.According to analysts at TD Securities: “The November jobs report will provide the main risk for events this week, with TD and the market looking for the labour market to give back some recent strength as the unemployment rate edges higher to 7.0%.”When is the Canada Unemployment Rate released, and how could it affect USD/CAD?All eyes in Canada will be on Friday’s GDP release, due at 13:30 GMT. A stronger print could give the Canadian Dollar (CAD) a quick lift, but don’t expect fireworks.USD/CAD has been on a steady decline almost entirely to the tune of the US Dollar (USD) lately, and that story is still all about the timing of further easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed).Pablo Piovano, Senior Analyst at FXStreet, points out that the CAD has clawed back a bit of ground since its lows late in the previous month, nudging USD/CAD back below the key 1.4000 support. He also notes that the technical setup still leans toward further losses if spot manages to clear its key 200-day SMA at 1.3913.From here, Piovano says a return of bullish momentum could send USD/CAD up to test the November high at 1.4140 (November 5), and if that breaks, the next target would be the April peak at 1.4414 (April 1).On the flip side, he highlights initial support at the December floor of 1.3925 (December 4), followed by that key 200-day SMA. A clean break lower would put the October base at 1.3887 (October 29) on the radar, ahead of the September trough at 1.3726 (September 17) and the July valley at 1.3556 (July 3).“Momentum favours extra declines,” he adds, noting that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 40 and the Average Directional Index (ADX) around 21 suggests the underlying trend appears to be gathering traction. Economic Indicator Average Hourly Wages (YoY) The Average Hourly Wages, released by Statistics Canada, measures the increase in the salaries earned by permanent employees in Canada. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending, which stimulates economic growth. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Canadian Dollar (CAD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Fri Nov 07, 2025 13:30 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 4% Consensus: - Previous: 3.6% Source: Statistics Canada Employment FAQs How do employment levels affect currencies? Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages. Why is wage growth important? The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy. How much do central banks care about employment? The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.

08:07 Forex Today: US Dollar loses recovery momentum before next batch of data
Here is what you need to know on Friday, December 5:

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In the second half of the day, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will publish the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data for September, the Federal Reserve's (Fed) preferred gauge of inflation. Later in the American session, investors will pay close attention to the University of Michigan's (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index report for December. US Dollar Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the weakest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.51% -0.80% -0.97% -0.20% -1.15% -0.66% -0.06% EUR 0.51% -0.28% -0.45% 0.32% -0.64% -0.14% 0.46% GBP 0.80% 0.28% 0.08% 0.60% -0.36% 0.14% 0.74% JPY 0.97% 0.45% -0.08% 0.77% -0.21% 0.30% 0.90% CAD 0.20% -0.32% -0.60% -0.77% -1.01% -0.46% 0.14% AUD 1.15% 0.64% 0.36% 0.21% 1.01% 0.50% 1.10% NZD 0.66% 0.14% -0.14% -0.30% 0.46% -0.50% 0.60% CHF 0.06% -0.46% -0.74% -0.90% -0.14% -1.10% -0.60% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). Upbeat data releases from the US helped the USD hold its ground on Thursday. Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported that planned job cuts declined 53% from October to 71,321 in November. Additionally, the US Department of Labor's weekly publication showed that Initial Jobless Claims declined to 191,000 from 218,000 in the previous week. This reading came in better than the market expectation of 220,000. Nevertheless, the CME Group FedWatch Tool's probability of a 25 basis points (bps) Fed rate cut in December held steady at around 90% even after these figures, causing the USD's recovery to remain shallow. The USD Index stays on the back foot and fluctuates in negative territory below 99.00 in the European morning on Friday. USD/CAD closed marginally higher on Thursday but retreated to the 1.3950 area early Friday. Later in the session, Statistics Canada will publish the November employment data. Investors expect the Unemployment Rate to edge higher to 7% from 6.9% in October.Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Friday that interest rates are shaped by “various factors” and reiterated that the government will closely monitor market developments, pursue appropriate debt-management policies, and craft budgets with fiscal sustainability in mind. After closing marginally lower on Thursday, USD/JPY continues to push lower on Friday and was last seen down 0.3% on the day at 154.65.EUR/USD lost about 0.25% on Thursday and snapped an eight-day winning streak. The pair regains its traction in the European morning and trades above 1.1650. Eurostat will publish revisions to third-quarter Employment Change and Gross Domestic Product data later in the session.Following Wednesday's sharp upsurge, GBP/USD corrected lower on Thursday and ended the day with small losses. The pair holds steady at around 1.3350 in the early European session on Friday.Gold struggled to make a decisive move in either direction on Thursday and ended the second consecutive day virtually unchanged. XAU/USD edges slightly higher early Friday and trades above $4,200. Inflation FAQs What is inflation? Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%. What is the Consumer Price Index (CPI)? The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls. What is the impact of inflation on foreign exchange? Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money. How does inflation influence the price of Gold? Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.

08:05 AUD/USD Price Forecast: Revisits two-month high near 0.6620
The AUD/USD pair extends its winning streak for the eleventh trading day on Friday, rising to near 0.6620 during the early European trading session.

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p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}AUD/USD rises to near 0.6620 due to continued outperformance from the Australian Dollar.RBA’s Bullock keeps the option of further monetary policy tightening on the table.Investors seem confident that the Fed will reduce interest rates next week.The AUD/USD pair extends its winning streak for the eleventh trading day on Friday, rising to near 0.6620 during the early European trading session. The Aussie pair trades firmly as the Australian Dollar (AUD) outperforms its peers amid expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could adopt a hawkish monetary stance to tame de-anchoring inflation expectations. Australian Dollar Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies this week. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.52% -0.80% -0.99% -0.21% -1.15% -0.66% -0.06% EUR 0.52% -0.28% -0.47% 0.32% -0.63% -0.14% 0.46% GBP 0.80% 0.28% 0.06% 0.60% -0.35% 0.13% 0.74% JPY 0.99% 0.47% -0.06% 0.80% -0.18% 0.32% 0.92% CAD 0.21% -0.32% -0.60% -0.80% -1.00% -0.46% 0.14% AUD 1.15% 0.63% 0.35% 0.18% 1.00% 0.49% 1.09% NZD 0.66% 0.14% -0.13% -0.32% 0.46% -0.49% 0.60% CHF 0.06% -0.46% -0.74% -0.92% -0.14% -1.09% -0.60% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). RBA hawkish speculation intensified on Thursday after the release of the Australian monthly household spending data for October, which came in stronger at 1.3% against 0.3% in September.Earlier this week, RBA Governor Michele Bullock also stated during his testimony before the Parliamentary Committee that monetary policy adjustments would be needed if inflation proves to be persistent.Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) trades cautiously as investors are confident that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates in its monetary policy announcement on Wednesday. The CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.50%-3.75% in the December policy meeting is 87%.AUD/USD daily chartAUD/USD trades higher at 0.6622 on Friday. The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) slopes higher, and the price holds above it, reinforcing a bullish tone. The distance over the 20-day EMA points to trend extension rather than mean reversion.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 66.00 signals firm momentum without an overbought reading.RSI north of 60 supports the upside and would turn cautionary only on a reversal. The 20-day EMA at 0.6542 supports; a daily close below that line could tilt the bias into a corrective pullback. On the upside, the Aussie pair could rise towards the September 18 high at 0.6660 if it breaks above the 0.6629 hurdle, which is the highest level in October.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool) Economic Indicator Fed Interest Rate Decision The Federal Reserve (Fed) deliberates on monetary policy and makes a decision on interest rates at eight pre-scheduled meetings per year. It has two mandates: to keep inflation at 2%, and to maintain full employment. Its main tool for achieving this is by setting interest rates – both at which it lends to banks and banks lend to each other. If it decides to hike rates, the US Dollar (USD) tends to strengthen as it attracts more foreign capital inflows. If it cuts rates, it tends to weaken the USD as capital drains out to countries offering higher returns. If rates are left unchanged, attention turns to the tone of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement, and whether it is hawkish (expectant of higher future interest rates), or dovish (expectant of lower future rates). Read more. Next release: Wed Dec 10, 2025 19:00 Frequency: Irregular Consensus: 3.75% Previous: 4% Source: Federal Reserve

08:05 South Africa Net $Gold & Forex Reserve: $70.024B (November) vs $69.364B
South Africa Net $Gold & Forex Reserve: $70.024B (November) vs $69.364B

08:00 South Africa Gross $Gold & Forex Reserve rose from previous $71.55B to $72.07B in November
South Africa Gross $Gold & Forex Reserve rose from previous $71.55B to $72.07B in November

07:58 USD/CHF declines below 0.8050 amid Fed rate cut expectations, US PCE inflation data eyed
The USD/CHF pair loses momentum to around 0.8030 during the early European session on Friday.

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The prospect of Hassett taking over as Fed Chair after Jerome Powell’s term ends in May could weigh on the USD. Softer-than-expected Swiss CPI inflation data could weigh on the Swiss Franc and help limit the pair’s losses. The USD/CHF pair loses momentum to around 0.8030 during the early European session on Friday. Rising bets for a US interest rate cut next week and the prospect of White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett taking over as Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair weigh on the US Dollar (USD) against the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index inflation report for September will take center stage later on Friday. The Greenback remains under selling pressure as traders increase their expectation that the US central bank will deliver a 25 basis points (bps) rate reduction at its December meeting. According to the CME FedWatch tool, financial markets are currently pricing in nearly an 85% chance of a quarter-point rate cut next week. Furthermore, US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday he plans to announce his choice to succeed Jerome Powell as head of the Fed early next year. White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett has emerged as the frontrunner to be the next Fed chair, which might drag the USD lower, as analysts believe that Hassett is expected to push for more rate cuts.Switzerland's Consumer Price Index (CPI) unexpectedly fell to 0% in November, and the core measure slowed to a four-year low, the Swiss Federal Statistical Office showed on Wednesday. The softer-than-expected inflation reading supports the view that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will maintain an accommodative monetary policy. This, in turn, could lead to a weakening of the Swiss Franc (CHF) against the Greenback and act as a tailwind for the pair. Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.

07:43 USD/INR rises as RBI reduces Repo Rate by 25 bps to 5.25%, as expected
The Indian Rupee (INR) drops against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, with the USD/INR pair edging higher to near 90.10, as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announces a dovish monetary policy.

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The RBI cuts its Repo Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 5.25%, and announces to inject Rs. 1 lakh crore into the economy through Open Market Operations (OMO), a tool through which the Indian central bank purchases government securities and a three-year USD/INR swap of $5 billion in December.The RBI has explained that members decided unanimously to lower borrowing rates amid cooling inflationary pressures. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra stated that the headline inflation has eased significantly and is likely to remain lower than projections.The central bank has projected that both headline and core inflation will remain below 4% during the first half of 2026. For the current financial year, the RBI has revised inflation projections to 2.0% from 2.6% anticipated earlier. Taking strong cues from the Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, the RBI has raised growth projections for the current fiscal year to 7.3% from 6.8%.A dovish monetary policy announcement by the RBI is expected to exert pressure on the Indian Rupee going forward, which is already facing the burden of continuous outflow of overseas funds from the Indian stock market amid tariff issues with the United States (US).Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have turned out to be net sellers in all four trading days of December, and have offloaded shares worth Rs. 9,964.72 crores in this period. Overseas investors have also remained net sellers in all months since July.Daily digest market movers: The Fed is expected to cut interest rates next weekThe Indian Rupee falls against the US Dollar, even as the US Dollar struggles to hold its immediate lows. At the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, holds ground near the five-week low around 98.85 during late Asian trading hours, which it regained on Thursday.The outlook of the US Dollar remains weak as the Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely anticipated to cut interest rates in its monetary policy meeting next week. According to the November 28-December 4 Reuters poll, 82% of economists surveyed predicted that the Fed will reduce its key borrowing rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.50%-3.75% to support deteriorating job market conditions.Upbeat Fed dovish expectations are contrary to October’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, which showed that several members did not necessarily view a reduction in December as appropriate, while remaining confident that more rate cuts would be needed in the distant future.In the monetary policy meeting next week, investors would like to know how much the Fed will cut interest rates further if it decides to reduce the Federal Funds Rate by 25 bps. In addition, investors would also pay close attention to the Fed’s guidance on the labor market outlook.Meanwhile, labor demand has weakened significantly, partly driven by growing acceptance of Artificial Intelligence (AI) by firms. The US ADP reported on Thursday that the private sector shed 32K jobs in November, while it was expected to add 5K fresh workers.In Friday’s session, investors will focus on the US Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for September, which will be released on Friday.Technical Analysis: USD/INR gains to near 90.20USD/INR rises to near 90.20 during the opening session on Friday. The pair corrected on Thursday after posting a fresh all-time high around 90.70.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) retraces to near 67.50 after turning overbought around 76.14, flagging a cool down in stretched momentum.Initial support is the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 89.44; above this gauge, the uptrend would stay in place. On the upside, the pair could extend its rally towards 91.00. Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.

07:15 US Dollar Index (DXY) remains close to multi-week low, around 99.00 ahead of US PCE data
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, struggles to capitalize on the overnight bounce from its lowest level since late October and trades with a mild negative bias during the Asian session on Friday.

07:04 Japan Leading Economic Index increased to 110 in October from previous 108.6
Japan Leading Economic Index increased to 110 in October from previous 108.6

07:01 Japan Coincident Index rose from previous 114.6 to 115.4 in October
Japan Coincident Index rose from previous 114.6 to 115.4 in October

07:00 Singapore Retail Sales (YoY): 4.5% (October) vs 2.8%
Singapore Retail Sales (YoY): 4.5% (October) vs 2.8%

07:00 Singapore Retail Sales (MoM) increased to 2.3% in October from previous -1.4%
Singapore Retail Sales (MoM) increased to 2.3% in October from previous -1.4%

06:55 EUR/JPY softens to near 180.50 as BoJ rate hike speculation bolsters Japanese Yen
The EUR/JPY cross trades on a softer note around 180.60 during the early European session on Friday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges higher against the Euro (EUR) amid growing speculation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates when it meets in December.

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The EUR/JPY cross trades on a softer note around 180.60 during the early European session on Friday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges higher against the Euro (EUR) amid growing speculation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates when it meets in December. The third estimate of the Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Growth Rate from the Eurozone will be published later on Friday. The BoJ is said to be leaning toward a rate hike at its December meeting, while keeping the option open for further tightening, Bloomberg reported on Friday, citing people familiar with internal discussions. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said earlier on Monday that the Japanese central bank will consider the "pros and cons" of raising rates this month, signaling a strong chance of a hike at the December 18-19 meeting. This would be the first hike since January.Eurozone inflation unexpectedly ticked up in November, suggesting that further rate cuts from the European Central Bank (ECB) are unlikely under current economic conditions. Rising bets that the ECB is done cutting interest rates could underpin the EUR against the JPY. The expectations were reaffirmed by ECB President Christine Lagarde's comment earlier this week, saying that the central bank expects inflation to stay near its 2% goal in the coming months. Meanwhile, ECB policymaker Joachim Nagel stated that rates are currently in a "good place." He added that new forecasts in December will help determine if the bank is on track to meet its medium-term inflation target. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

06:44 Gold flat lines above $4,200 mark; looks to US PCE Price Index for some meaningful impetus
Gold (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on the overnight bounce from the $4,175 area, or the vicinity of the weekly trough, and oscillates in a narrow trading range during the Asian session on Friday.

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Traders now seem reluctant and opt to move to the sidelines ahead of the September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, or the Federal Reserve's (Fed) preferred inflation gauge. The crucial data will play a key role in influencing the near-term US Dollar (USD) price dynamics and provide a fresh directional impetus to the non-yielding yellow metal.In the meantime, the growing acceptance that the US central bank will lower borrowing costs again next week fails to assist the USD in building on the overnight bounce from its lowest level since late October. This, along with geopolitical uncertainties and the cautious market mood, supports the safe-haven Gold. Moreover, the recent range-bound price action witnessed over the past week or so makes it prudent to wait for a sustained move in either direction before confirming the near-term trajectory for the bullion, which remains on track to register modest weekly losses.Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold struggles as traders seem reluctant ahead of the US inflation dataGlobal outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas said that planned job cuts declined 53%, to 71,321 in November, from 153,074 in the previous month, which was the highest for an October month since 2003. Separately, the US Labour Department reported that Initial Jobless Claims fell to 191K in the week ended November 29, marking the lowest level in more than three years.Despite the upbeat labor market reports, traders are still pricing in an over 85% probability that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming policy meeting next week. This, in turn, fails to assist the US Dollar to build on Thursday's modest recovery move and continues to act as a tailwind for the non-yielding Gold through the Asian session on Friday.Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that some proposals in a US plan to end the war in Ukraine are unacceptable, suggesting that any deal is still some ways off. Furthermore, Putin warned again that Ukrainian troops must withdraw from the Donbas region or Russia will seize it. This keeps geopolitical risks in play and turns out to be another factor supporting the commodity.Market participants are now eyeing the September US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. The headline print is expected to show that annual inflation in the US edged higher to 2.8% from 2.7% in August. Meanwhile, the core PCE Price Index – which is seen as the Fed's preferred inflation gauge – is seen holding steady at the 2.9% YoY rate during the reported month.Nevertheless, the crucial data will be scrutinized closely for more cues about the Fed's future rate-cut path. This will drive the USD demand and provide a fresh directional impetus to the commodity. In the meantime, the mixed fundamental backdrop, warrants caution before placing aggressive bets around the XAU/USD pair, which seems poised to post modest weekly losses.Gold awaits a breakout through a one-week-old range before the next leg of a directional moveAny upside momentum might continue to face some resistance near the $4,245-4,250 region amid mixed technical oscillators on hourly/daily charts. The next relevant hurdle is pegged near the $4,277-4,278 area, above which the Gold price could aim to reclaim the $4,300 round figure. A sustained strength beyond the latter will be seen as a key trigger for the XAU/USD bulls and pave the way for additional near-term gains.On the flip side, dips towards the weekly low, around the $4,164-4,163 region, might still be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited. A convincing break below, however, might prompt technical selling and make the Gold price vulnerable to test the $4,100-4,090 confluence. The latter comprises the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart and an ascending trend-line extending from late October, which in turn, should act as a strong base for the XAU/USD pair. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

06:37 India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices rose in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

06:34 India Reverse Repo Rate unchanged at 3.35%
India Reverse Repo Rate unchanged at 3.35%

06:33 India RBI Interest Rate Decision (Repo Rate) meets expectations (5.25%)
India RBI Interest Rate Decision (Repo Rate) meets expectations (5.25%)

06:10 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rises to near $57.50 on dovish Fed expectations
Silver price (XAG/USD) trades 0.5% higher to near $57.50 during the Asian trading session on Friday. The white metal rises after regaining ground, following a correction move to near $56.50 from the all-time high of $58.90.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Silver price recovers as the Fed is expected to cut interest rates next week.Dovish Fed bets have been prompted by downside US employment risks.Fed’s Powell stated in the October policy meeting that the December rate cut is far from a foregone conclusion.Silver price (XAG/USD) trades 0.5% higher to near $57.50 during the Asian trading session on Friday. The white metal rises after regaining ground, following a correction move to near $56.50 from the all-time high of $58.90.The precious metal bounces back as traders are increasingly confident that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates in the monetary policy meeting next week. Lower interest rates by the Fed bode well for non-yielding assets, such as Silver.According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.50%-3.75% in the December policy meeting is 87%.Upbeat Fed interest rate cut speculation is contrary to what Chairman Jerome Powell stated in October’s monetary policy press conference. “An interest rate cut in the December meeting is far from a foregone conclusion,” Powell said.Weak United States (US) job market conditions have seldom contributed to firm Fed dovish expectations. The US ADP reported on Thursday that the private sector shed 32K jobs in November, while it was expected to add 5K fresh workers.Meanwhile, several Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) officials have supported the need to loosen the monetary policy further, citing downside labor market risks.Silver technical analysisXAG/USD trades higher at $57.51 during Friday's Asian trading hours. The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) climbs to $53.91, underscoring a firm uptrend with price comfortably above trend support. The 20-DAY ema has steepened in recent sessions, reinforcing bullish control.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 68.48 is elevated, signaling strong momentum near overbought territory.The bias stays upward while the 20-day EMA rises and continues to underpin pullbacks. RSI remains strong and just below the 70 mark, which could prompt a brief consolidation before the next leg higher. A sustained close above $57.51 would keep topside pressure intact, while dips holding above the average would preserve the advance.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool) Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

06:07 GBP/USD Price Forecast: Constructive view prevails above 1.3300 ahead of US PCE inflation data
The GBP/USD pair trades on a flat note near 1.3330 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. Traders prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the key US inflation report later on Friday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}GBP/USD flat lines around 1.3330 in Friday’s Asian session. The positive view of the major pair prevails above the 100-day EMA, with a bullish RSI indicator.The first upside barrier emerges at 1.3348; the first support level to watch is 1.3300. The GBP/USD pair trades on a flat note near 1.3330 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. Traders prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the key US inflation report later on Friday. The US delayed Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index report for September could offer some hints about the US interest rate path.Meanwhile, rising bets for a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) next week could weigh on the US Dollar (USD) and create a tailwind for the major pair. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, interest rate futures traders are pricing in a nearly 89% chance of a quarter percentage point cut in the Fed funds rate by the Fed at the December meeting, to 3.50%-3.75%, up from just 63% a month ago.On the other hand, concerns over the UK economic outlook and expectations of faster-than-expected monetary easing by the Bank of England (BoE) might undermine the Cable against the USD. A majority of analysts expect the UK central bank to cut interest rates to 3.75% in December, with markets pricing in a 90% probability.
Technical Analysis:In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3328. The pair holds above the 100-EMA at 1.3300, and the average has flattened after a prior slide, supporting a firmer tone. Price hovers near the upper Bollinger Band at 1.3348 as bands widen, signaling rising volatility and bullish pressure. RSI at 61 shows positive momentum without overbought conditions.Initial resistance is set by the upper band at 1.3348, where a close higher could extend gains. Immediate support aligns with the 100-EMA at 1.3300, followed by the middle band at 1.3189 and the lower band at 1.3029. Holding above the average would keep the bias higher, while a pullback toward the middle band would cool the advance.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool) Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

05:19 Indonesia Foreign Reserves up to $150.1 in November from previous $149.9
Indonesia Foreign Reserves up to $150.1 in November from previous $149.9

05:15 USD/CAD trades flat near 1.3950 ahead of Canada’s employment data
The USD/CAD pair trades in a tight range around 1.3950 during the Asian trading session on Friday. The Loonie pair wobbles inside Thursday’s trading range as investors await the Canadian labour market data for November, which will be published at 13:30 GMT.

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The Loonie pair wobbles inside Thursday’s trading range as investors await the Canadian labour market data for November, which will be published at 13:30 GMT.Investors will pay close attention to the Canadian employment data to get cues about whether the Bank of Canada (BoC) will extend its monetary easing campaign.The Canadian employment report is expected to show that there were no fresh hiring and lay-offs, following the creation of 66.6K jobs in October. The Unemployment Rate is expected to come in higher at 7% from the prior release of 6.9%.Signs of weakening Canadian job market conditions would prompt the need of an interest rate cut by the BoC in its monetary policy meeting on Wednesday.Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) trades cautiously amid firm expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates in its monetary policy meeting next week. At the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, strives to hold its fresh five-week low around 98.75 posted on Thursday.According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.50%-3.75% in the December policy meeting is 87%.Firm Fed dovish speculation is backed by deteriorating United States (US) labor market conditions, and expectations that inflation-driven by President Donald Trump’s promoted tariff policy is not persistent in nature. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

04:56 EUR/USD edges higher to mid-1.1600s; looks to US PCE Price Index for fresh impetus
The EUR/USD pair attracts some dip-buyers during the Asian session on Friday and recovers a part of the previous day's retracement slide from the 1.1680 region, or the highest level since October 17.

04:33 Japanese Yen holds steady as BoJ rate hike bets offset weak data; USD/JPY seems vulnerable
The Japanese Yen (JPY) holds steady during the Asian session on Friday and reacts little to the unimpressive data, which showed that Japan's Household Spending unexpectedly fell at the fastest pace in nearly two years in October.

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Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda earlier this week lifted market expectations for an imminent interest rate hike as early as this month. Furthermore, a reflationary push by new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi keeps Japanese government bonds (JGB) yields elevated and continues to underpin the lower-yielding JPY.Apart from this, a cautious mood around the equity markets is seen as another factor that benefits the JPY's relative safe-haven status. The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, struggles to capitalize on the overnight bounce from its lowest level since late October amid the growing acceptance that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower borrowing costs next week. This keeps the USD/JPY pair depressed near a three-week low, touched on Thursday, and backs the case for an extension of the recent decline witnessed over the past two weeks or so.Japanese Yen shrugs off dismal macro data amid hawkish BoJ expectationsData published by Japan's Internal Affairs Ministry showed this Friday that Household Spending fell 2.9% YoY in October 2025, missing market expectations for a 1.0% rise and reversing a 1.8% gain in the prior month. This also marked the first decline since April and the fastest pace of fall since January 2024, raising concerns about the economic outlook.The Japanese Yen, however, remains on the front foot amid prospects for further Bank of Japan tightening. In fact, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Monday that the central bank would consider the pros and cons of raising the policy rate at the December 18-19 meeting. This was seen as the clearest hint so far of an impending rate hike and underpins the JPY.Adding to this, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's massive spending plan, to be funded by new debt issuance, has been a key factor behind the recent sharp rise in government bond yields over the past month. The yield on the benchmark 10-year JGB surged to its strongest level since 2007 on Thursday, while the 20-year reached a level not seen since 1999.Furthermore, the 30-year JGB yield hit a record high, resulting in a further narrowing of the rate differential between Japan and other major economies. This raises the risk of the carry trade unwinding and further benefits the JPY. However, rising bond yields mean higher borrowing costs, which fuel concerns about Japan's fiscal situation and keep a lid on the JPY gains.The US Dollar staged a modest recovery from a six-week trough on Thursday and drew support from a duo of upbeat US labor market reports. In fact, Global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas said that planned job cuts declined 53% to 71,321 in November, from 153,074 in the previous month, which was the highest for an October month since 2003.Adding to this, the US Labour Department reported that the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits decreased by 27,000 to 191,000 in the week ended November 29. This marked the lowest level in more than three years, which eased fears of a sharp deterioration in labor market conditions and prompted some USD short-covering.Despite the supportive data, the USD struggles to attract any follow-through buying amid the growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve will lower borrowing costs again at next week's policy meeting. This fails to assist the USD/JPY pair in registering any meaningful recovery from a nearly three-week low set on Thursday and backs the case for further losses.Traders, however, seem reluctant and opt to wait for the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index before placing fresh directional bets. The crucial inflation data will play a key role in influencing expectations about the Fed's rate-cut path, which, in turn, will drive the USD and provide some meaningful impetus to the USD/JPY pair.USD/JPY remains vulnerable while below the 100-hour SMA hurdle, around 155.40The recent repeated failures to move back above the 100-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the overnight breakdown below the 155.00 psychological mark favor the USD/JPY bears. Furthermore, technical indicators on hourly charts are holding in negative territory and back the case for a further depreciating move, though neutral oscillators on the daily chart warrant some caution. Hence, any further intraday slide could find some support near the overnight swing low, around mid-154.00s, below which spot prices could accelerate the downfall towards the 154.00 round figure.On the flip side, any meaningful recovery attempt is likely to confront a stiff barrier near the 155.40 region, or the 100-hour SMA. A sustained strength beyond might trigger a short-covering move and allow the USD/JPY pair to reclaim the 156.00 mark. Some follow-through buying should pave the way for a further move up to the next relevant hurdle near the 156.60-156.65 region en route to the 157.00 round figure. Economic Indicator Overall Household Spending (YoY) The Overall Household Spending released by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications is an indicator that measures the total expenditure by households. The level of spending can be used as an indicator of consumer optimism. It is also considered as a measure of economic growth. A high reading is positive (or Bullish) for the JPY, while a low reading is negative (or bearish). Read more. Last release: Thu Dec 04, 2025 23:30 Frequency: Monthly Actual: -2.9% Consensus: 1% Previous: 1.8% Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan

04:25 WTI holds below $60.00, Fed rate cut bets cushion losses
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $59.45 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The WTI declines amid an increase in US crude oil stockpiles, signaling excess supply.

03:49 RBA to hold cash rate at 3.60% through 2026 — Reuters poll
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will hold its cash rate at 3.60% at its December next week and keep it steady through 2026, according to the latest Reuters poll.

03:16 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.0749 vs. 7.0733 previous
On Friday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.0749 compared to the previous day's fix of 7.0733 and 7.0751 Reuters estimate.

03:06 NZD/USD weakens to near 0.5750 as traders await US PCE inflation release
The NZD/USD pair edges lower to around 0.5765 during the early Asian trading hours on Friday, pressured by the rebound in the US Dollar (USD). Nonetheless, the potential downside for the pair might be limited amid rising bets for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) next week.

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Markets are anticipating a 25 basis point interest rate cut from the Fed next week.Traders brace for the delayed US PCE inflation data on Friday for fresh impetus. The NZD/USD pair edges lower to around 0.5765 during the early Asian trading hours on Friday, pressured by the rebound in the US Dollar (USD). Nonetheless, the potential downside for the pair might be limited amid rising bets for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) next week. Traders will take more cues from the US delayed Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index report for September, which is due later on Friday.The US central bank is likely to reduce its key interest rate at its December meeting next week after a cooling labor market and dovish remarks from Fed officials like New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Christopher Waller. Fed funds futures traders are now pricing in nearly an 89% chance of a rate reduction next week, up from 71% probability a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.On the Kiwi front, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decided to cut its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by a quarter percentage point to 2.25% last week, as widely expected. The New Zealand central bank signaled that future rate changes will depend on the economic and inflation outlook, and analysts believe the rate-cutting cycle is likely finished for now. This, in turn, could provide some support to the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against the Greenback. The US delayed PCE inflation data will be in the spotlight later in the day, which could give some insight into the US interest rate path. The headline PCE is expected to show an increase of 2.8% YoY in September, while the core PCE is projected to show a rise of 2.9% during the same period. In case of a hotter-than-expected inflation reading, this could boost the USD and create a headwind for the pair in the near term. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

02:55 AUD/USD holds steady above 0.6600; remains close to two-month high ahead of US PCE data
The AUD/USD pair enters a bullish consolidation phase during the Asian session on Friday and oscillates in a range around the 0.6600 round figure, just below a nearly two-month high, touched the previous day.

02:52 Japan’s Katayama says will closely monitor market developments
Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Friday that interest rates are shaped by “various factors” and reiterated that the government will closely monitor market developments, pursue appropriate debt-management policies, and craft budgets with fiscal sustainability in mind.

02:05 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD flat lines near $4,200 ahead of US PCE inflation release
Gold price (XAU/USD) trades on a flat note near $4,205 during the early Asian trading hours on Friday. Rising US Treasury yields and upbeat US jobs data cap upside for the precious metal. Traders might prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the key US inflation data.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold price holds steady around $4,205 in Friday’s early Asian session. Higher yields and upbeat US jobs data could weigh on Gold price; Rising Fed rate cut bets might cap its losses. The US delayed PCE inflation report will take center stage later on Friday. Gold price (XAU/USD) trades on a flat note near $4,205 during the early Asian trading hours on Friday. Rising US Treasury yields and upbeat US jobs data cap upside for the precious metal. Traders might prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the key US inflation data. The US delayed the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index report for September, which will be published later on Friday. Higher yields and stronger US jobs data could provide some support to the US Dollar (USD) broadly and weigh on the USD-denominated commodity price. Data released by the US Department of Labour (DOL) on Tuesday showed that US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending November 29 declined to 191,000, compared to 218,000 in the previous week. This figure came in lower than the market consensus of 220,000. Traders will closely monitor Friday's US PCE inflation data for more clues on the Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy outlook ahead of its December meeting. Any signs of hotter inflation in the US economy could undermine the Gold price in the near term. Meanwhile, the Fed is widely anticipated to reduce its key interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) at its December policy meeting next week. This, in turn, could underpin the yellow metal. Lower interest rates could reduce the opportunity cost of holding Gold, supporting the non-yielding precious metal.Uncertainty and elevated geopolitical risks could boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the Gold price. US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that the path ahead for Ukraine peace talks is unclear. These comments came after Trump called the "reasonably good" talks between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US envoys. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy stated that his team is preparing for meetings in the US and that the dialogue with Trump's representatives will continue. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

01:50 Japan JP Foreign Reserves declined to $1B in November from previous $1347.4B
Japan JP Foreign Reserves declined to $1B in November from previous $1347.4B

01:30 Japan Overall Household Spending (YoY) registered at -2.9%, below expectations (1%) in October
Japan Overall Household Spending (YoY) registered at -2.9%, below expectations (1%) in October

01:27 GBP/USD pulls back as bull run hesitates
GBP/USD flubbed a technical run at the 1.3350 handle on Wednesday, falling back below the key technical level and trimming some of the ground gained during a strong rebound earlier in the week.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}GBP/USD fell back below 1.3350 on Wednesday, trimming the top off recent gains.Bullish momentum behind the Pound Sterling remains hesitant despite a seven-session slide in the Dollar index.Backdated US PCE inflation data due on Friday could hint at the late-year trajectory of US inflation pressures.GBP/USD flubbed a technical run at the 1.3350 handle on Wednesday, falling back below the key technical level and trimming some of the ground gained during a strong rebound earlier in the week. The Pound Sterling (GBP) has climbed against the US Dollar (USD), but a seven-session backlide in the US Dollar Index (DXY) has not translated into one-to-one gains on the Cable chart.The key event for December will be the latest interest rate call from the Federal Reserve (Fed) slated for December 10. Markets remain fully committed to expecting a third straight interest rate trim from the Fed on December 10. According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, rate traders are pricing in nearly 90% odds of a quarter-point rate cut next week. Official datasets are still lagging well behind the curve as federal agencies struggle to play catchup following the longest US federal government shutdown in history. Recent private datasets have teased that the US labor market could be crumbling further heading into the year’s end, keeping trader expectations of further rate cuts on the high side.Before the Fed can gather to deliberate on interest rates, the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) inflation report will drop on Friday. The figures are from September, and are far too backdated to be immediately relevant to the Fed’s deliberations for a December interest rate cut. However, a hard upswing, even in old data, could throw a wrench in the works for a third straight interest rate trim.GBP/USD daily chart
Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

01:03 USD/JPY drifts lower to near 155.05 on Fed rate cut expectations, US PCE inflation data in focus
The USD/JPY pair remains weak near 155.05 during the early Asian session on Friday. Rising bets for a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) next week and weaker US economic data weigh on the US Dollar (USD) against the Japanese Yen (JPY).

01:00 South Korea Current Account Balance down to 6.81B in October from previous 13.47B
South Korea Current Account Balance down to 6.81B in October from previous 13.47B

00:33 Euro dips as US jobs data boosts the Dollar despite Fed-cut buzz
Euro retreats somewhat on Thursday as traders digest the last round of US jobs data as they also brace for the release of the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD trades at 1.1649, down 0.19%.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}US Initial Jobless Claims dropped sharply, strengthening the Dollar’s position against the Euro.Traders now see an 85% chance for a Federal Reserve rate cut next week.ECB President Lagarde expects Eurozone inflation to remain near 2% in coming months.Euro retreats somewhat on Thursday as traders digest the last round of US jobs data as they also brace for the release of the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD trades at 1.1649, down 0.19%.EUR/USD poised for further upside on possible Fed rate cutThe financial markets narrative hasn’t changed, as investors are waiting for December 10, the Fed’s D day. Economic data in the US was a tailwind for the Dollar, as Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending November 29 dipped sharply, an indication that the labor market is still firm.Contrarily, the Challenger Jobs Cut data reported that employers cut over 70,000 jobs in November, its highest level for that month since 2022.Given the fundamental backdrop, traders priced in an 85% chance for a Fed rate cut next week. Nevertheless, this could change if the release of the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for September, surpasses the 3% threshold on Friday.For the Euro, the main supporter is the European Central Bank (ECB) which set interest rates at around 2%, hinted that the easing cycle was over and Lagarde’s remarks on Wednesday, when she said, “inflation to stay near 2% in months ahead.”Data-wise Retail Sales in the Eurozone exceeded estimates in October, and Construction PMI readings for the EZ, Germany, France and Italy, improved, despite remaining in contractionary territory.Daily market movers: Euro boosted by Lagarde’s comments, weak DollarThe Dollar is poised to weaken further, yet as of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck’s performance against six major currencies, gains 0.19% up at 99.05.Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending November 29 were 191K, lower than the estimated 220K and last week's revised 218K. Continuing Claims for November 22 fell to 1.939 million from 1.943 million the prior week.According to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, employers reported 71,321 job cuts in November. This figure represents a 24% increase compared to the same period last year, but a 53% decrease from the number recorded in October of this year.ECB’s President Lagarde added that the EZ economy is in good shape due to a steady household spending and a resilient labor market. The central bank is expected to hold rates unchanged at the December 18 meeting.Technical analysis: EUR/USD holds steady within new range amid fading momentumThe EUR/USD despite dipping, remains stable at around the 1.1650 area for four consecutive sessions, establishing a new trading range between this threshold and 1.1700. Buying momentum has faded as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), putting in danger a possible test of the 1.1800 figure, before traders could challenge the year-to-date (YTD) high at 1.1918.Should the EUR/USD decline below 1.1650, initial support is provided by the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1610, followed by the 20-day SMA at 1.1589, and subsequently at 1.1500.EUR/USD daily chart Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

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Forex News Timeline

22:01 United States Consumer Credit Change came in at $9.18B, below expectations ($10.5B) in October United States Consumer Credit Change came in at $9.18B, below expectations ($10.5B) in October

21:24 Dow Jones Industrial Average climbs 150 points after cooler PCE inflation print The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) made slim gains on Friday, climbing another 150 points and ending a moderately bullish week near the 48,000 handle.

21:22 Gold holds strong at $4,200 as Fed-cut anticipation builds Gold (XAU/USD) advances during the North American session on Friday, poised to finish the week almost flat above the $4,200 figure as market participants brace for the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting next week.

20:01 United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count above forecasts (409): Actual (413) United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count above forecasts (409): Actual (413)

18:41 Fed poised for third straight cut, BoC seen on hold – RBC Dual central bank interest rate decisions from the U.S.

18:24 EUR/USD pulls back as Greenback finds support following latest US data The Euro (EUR) trims earlier gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday as the Greenback firms following the latest set of US economic releases.

18:20 EUR/USD: USD slide may spur 2026 diversification – Rabobank The US Dollar’s (USD) sharp H1 2025 drop could push investors toward broader portfolios, though geopolitics and Fed risks may keep the currency unsettled.

18:16 Fed poised for 25bp cut to 3.50–3.75% – Rabobank The FOMC is expected to deliver a 25bp rate cut with potential dissents, reflecting the tension between inflation risks and weakening employment. Federal Reserve (Fed) Gov.

17:04 US UoM Consumer Sentiment Index is seen at 53.3 in December American consumer confidence edged higher in early December, as households grew more optimistic about current conditions and the broader economic outlook, according to preliminary data from the University of Michigan.

17:00 United States Michigan Consumer Expectations Index came in at 55, above expectations (51.2) in December United States Michigan Consumer Expectations Index came in at 55, above expectations (51.2) in December

17:00 United States UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations declined to 4.1% in December from previous 4.5% United States UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations declined to 4.1% in December from previous 4.5%

17:00 United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) below forecasts (2.9%) in September: Actual (2.8%) United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) below forecasts (2.9%) in September: Actual (2.8%)

17:00 United States Personal Income (MoM) came in at 0.4%, above expectations (0.3%) in September United States Personal Income (MoM) came in at 0.4%, above expectations (0.3%) in September

17:00 United States Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) in line with forecasts (0.3%) in September United States Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) in line with forecasts (0.3%) in September

17:00 United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) meets forecasts (0.2%) in September United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) meets forecasts (0.2%) in September

17:00 United States Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) meets forecasts (2.8%) in September United States Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) meets forecasts (2.8%) in September

17:00 United States Personal Spending in line with forecasts (0.3%) in September United States Personal Spending in line with forecasts (0.3%) in September

17:00 United States UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation fell from previous 3.4% to 3.2% in December United States UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation fell from previous 3.4% to 3.2% in December

17:00 United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index above expectations (52) in December: Actual (53.3) United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index above expectations (52) in December: Actual (53.3)

16:31 Turkey Treasury Cash Balance rose from previous -195.879B to 56.39B in November Turkey Treasury Cash Balance rose from previous -195.879B to 56.39B in November

16:25 USD/CAD slides to a two-month low after Canada’s jobs beat; eyes on US PCE The Canadian Dollar (CAD) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday as a stronger-than-expected Labour Force Survey boosts sentiment around the Loonie.

16:07 GBP holds steady amid quiet trading – Scotiabank The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades little changed in subdued market conditions, with sentiment influenced by broader currency trends.

16:01 EUR holds steady near mid-range – Scotiabank The Euro (USD) trades flat near the midpoint of its intraday range, supported by stronger-than-expected German and French industrial data.

15:30 Canada Unemployment Rate below expectations (7%) in November: Actual (6.5%) Canada Unemployment Rate below expectations (7%) in November: Actual (6.5%)

15:30 Canada Participation Rate dipped from previous 65.3% to 65.1% in November Canada Participation Rate dipped from previous 65.3% to 65.1% in November

15:30 Canada Net Change in Employment registered at 53.6K above expectations (-5K) in November Canada Net Change in Employment registered at 53.6K above expectations (-5K) in November

15:20 EUR/JPY rebounds on stronger Eurozone data, soft Yen EUR/JPY recovers from early lows on Friday as the Japanese Yen struggles to benefit from growing expectations of a Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike.

14:30 Copper price continues to surge – Commerzbank Copper prices jumped to a new record of $11,540 per ton as fears mount over potential US import tariffs extending to refined Copper.

14:26 Italy's Gold reserves become the focus of politics – Commerzbank Italy is considering declaring its central bank’s 2,452 tons of Gold as the property of the people, a move opposed by the ECB over fears it could threaten bank independence.

14:23 USD/JPY edges up above 155.00 ahead of the US PCE inflation release The US Dollar has popped up above the 155.00 line against the Japanese Yen on Friday’s European session, after bouncing up from two-week lows at 154.30 on Thursday.

14:22 European Gas price falls to 20-month low – Commerzbank The TTF Natural Gas price continued to slide this week. The 1-month forward is currently trading below EUR 27 per MWh, which is the lowest level in 20 months, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

14:16 Saudi Arabia lowers selling prices again – Commerzbank Saudi Arabia has reduced its official selling prices for January Oil deliveries, with Asian customers now paying only $0.60 per barrel above the Oman/Dubai benchmark.

14:08 Russian Oil exports rose significantly in late November – Commerzbank Russia exported nearly 3.94 million barrels of Crude Oil per day last week, marking a 20% increase from the prior week despite US sanctions.

14:05 SNB preview: High bar to a cut, hold at 0% – NOMURA The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is expected to maintain its policy rate at 0% despite weak inflation and GDP growth, citing high barriers to negative rates.

14:03 Mexico Consumer Confidence s.a fell from previous 46.1 to 44.2 in November Mexico Consumer Confidence s.a fell from previous 46.1 to 44.2 in November

14:03 Mexico Consumer Confidence declined to 44 in November from previous 45.7 Mexico Consumer Confidence declined to 44 in November from previous 45.7

13:59 Gold trades steady as markets brace for delayed US PCE data Gold (XAU/USD) trades marginally higher on Friday, oscillating within the familiar range that has defined price action this week, as dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations keep the precious metal broadly supported.

13:50 BoJ poised for December rate hike – Commerzbank The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is set to raise interest rates to 0.75% this month, sending USD/JPY lower as the Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens.

13:41 USD/JPY hits fresh lows as Yen strengthens – MUFG USD/JPY fell to 154.35 as the Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens amid growing expectations for a Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike this month.

13:30 India FX Reserves, USD fell from previous $688.1B to $686.23B in November 24 India FX Reserves, USD fell from previous $688.1B to $686.23B in November 24

13:23 US Dollar Index (DXY) Price Forecast: Hovering at the key 99.00 level The US Dollar remains practically flat at the key 99.00 level on Friday after having picked up from fresh one-month lows at 98.80 on Thursday.

13:04 USD consolidates near weekly lows amid weak labor data – BBH US Dollar (USD) is consolidating this week’s losses and trading near the lows of the week. Global equity markets keep grinding higher while long-term sovereign bond yields remain under modest upside pressure.

13:00 UoM Consumer Sentiment Index expected to post a mild recovery in December The United States (US) will see the release of the preliminary estimate of December’s University of Michigan's (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index on Friday.

12:53 Japan’s Kiuchi: Hopes BoJ to work in line with government’s principals Japan's economy minister, Minoru Kiuchi, said during Friday’s European trading session that the government will not interfere in Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) decisions on monetary policy.

12:47 EUR: Euro climbs toward 1.1700 amid broad USD weakness – MUFG The Euro (EUR) is on track for a second weekly gain versus the US Dollar (USD), supported by expectations of a narrowing policy gap between the Fed and ECB.

12:35 China lays out plans to boost consumption China’s Commerce Ministry stated during the European trading session on Friday that the government aims to revive the overall demand, laid out plans to propel the same.

12:21 USD/JPY decouples from yield spreads – MUFG USD/JPY has broken its historical link to US–Japan yield spreads, with correlations turning negative as Japan-specific risks dominate.

12:01 Greece Gross Domestic Product s.a (YoY): 2% (3Q) vs 1.7% Greece Gross Domestic Product s.a (YoY): 2% (3Q) vs 1.7%

12:01 Eurozone Employment Change (YoY) came in at 0.6%, above forecasts (0.5%) in 3Q Eurozone Employment Change (YoY) came in at 0.6%, above forecasts (0.5%) in 3Q

12:00 Eurozone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) meets forecasts (1.4%) in 3Q Eurozone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) meets forecasts (1.4%) in 3Q

12:00 Eurozone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) above expectations (0.2%) in 3Q: Actual (0.3%) Eurozone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) above expectations (0.2%) in 3Q: Actual (0.3%)

12:00 Eurozone Employment Change (QoQ) above expectations (0.1%) in 3Q: Actual (0.2%) Eurozone Employment Change (QoQ) above expectations (0.1%) in 3Q: Actual (0.2%)

11:59 USD/INR extends uptrend toward 90.80–91.00 – Société Générale USD/INR remains in a firm uptrend after July’s breakout, with scope to test the upper channel at 90.80–91.00, Société Générale's FX analysts note.

11:44 USD/CAD tests key 200-DMA support zone – Société Générale USD/CAD is pressing into major support at the 200-day average and the base of its multi-month channel near 1.3920/1.3880, Société Générale's FX analysts note.

11:30 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Friday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $58.00 per troy ounce, up 1.56% from the $57.11 it cost on Thursday.

11:15 GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Pound found resistance at 207.35 area The Pound is in a positive trend against the Yen. The pair has rallied about 3.5% from early November lows, although the rally has stalled this week, with bulls failing to find follow-through beyond the 2076.35 area.

11:00 Italy Retail Sales n.s.a (YoY): 1.3% (October) vs 0.5% Italy Retail Sales n.s.a (YoY): 1.3% (October) vs 0.5%

11:00 Italy Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) above expectations (0.4%) in October: Actual (0.5%) Italy Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) above expectations (0.4%) in October: Actual (0.5%)

10:59 Pound Sterling sees more upside on UK budget-relief rally, upwardly revised PMI The Pound Sterling (GBP) strives to extend its recent rally against its major currency peers on Friday.

10:02 Switzerland Foreign Currency Reserves rose from previous 725B to 727B in November Switzerland Foreign Currency Reserves rose from previous 725B to 727B in November

10:01 Austria Wholesale Prices n.s.a (MoM): 0.9% (November) vs -0.3% Austria Wholesale Prices n.s.a (MoM): 0.9% (November) vs -0.3%

10:01 Austria Wholesale Prices n.s.a (YoY): 0.9% (November) vs 0.2% Austria Wholesale Prices n.s.a (YoY): 0.9% (November) vs 0.2%

10:00 Spain Industrial Output Cal Adjusted (YoY) down to 1.2% in October from previous 1.7% Spain Industrial Output Cal Adjusted (YoY) down to 1.2% in October from previous 1.7%

10:00 Austria Trade Balance: €-230.8M (September) vs €-1895.6M Austria Trade Balance: €-230.8M (September) vs €-1895.6M

09:45 France Industrial Output (MoM) registered at 0.2% above expectations (-0.3%) in October France Industrial Output (MoM) registered at 0.2% above expectations (-0.3%) in October

09:45 France Trade Balance EUR increased to €-3.92B in October from previous €-6.58B France Trade Balance EUR increased to €-3.92B in October from previous €-6.58B

09:45 France Current Account climbed from previous €-1.6B to €1.1B in October France Current Account climbed from previous €-1.6B to €1.1B in October

09:45 France Exports, EUR dipped from previous €51.92B to €51.7B in October France Exports, EUR dipped from previous €51.92B to €51.7B in October

09:45 France Imports, EUR down to €55.7B in October from previous €58.5B France Imports, EUR down to €55.7B in October from previous €58.5B

09:45 France Trade Balance EUR increased to €-3.9B in October from previous €-6.58B France Trade Balance EUR increased to €-3.9B in October from previous €-6.58B

09:03 EUR/GBP trades flat above 0.8700 amid BoE rate cut speculation The EUR/GBP cross trades on a flat note near 0.8735 during the early European session on Friday. Concerns over UK tax hikes and a dovish stance from the Bank of England (BoE) could exert downward pressure on the Pound Sterling.

09:02 Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) up to -0.7% in October from previous -4.3% Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) up to -0.7% in October from previous -4.3%

09:02 Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) up to 1.5% in October from previous -4.3% Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) up to 1.5% in October from previous -4.3%

09:00 United Kingdom Halifax House Prices (MoM) below forecasts (0.4%) in November: Actual (0%) United Kingdom Halifax House Prices (MoM) below forecasts (0.4%) in November: Actual (0%)

09:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) registered at 1.5% above expectations (0.5%) in October Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) registered at 1.5% above expectations (0.5%) in October

08:07 Forex Today: US Dollar loses recovery momentum before next batch of data Here is what you need to know on Friday, December 5:

08:05 AUD/USD Price Forecast: Revisits two-month high near 0.6620 The AUD/USD pair extends its winning streak for the eleventh trading day on Friday, rising to near 0.6620 during the early European trading session.

08:05 South Africa Net $Gold & Forex Reserve: $70.024B (November) vs $69.364B South Africa Net $Gold & Forex Reserve: $70.024B (November) vs $69.364B

08:00 South Africa Gross $Gold & Forex Reserve rose from previous $71.55B to $72.07B in November South Africa Gross $Gold & Forex Reserve rose from previous $71.55B to $72.07B in November