Forex News Timeline

Wednesday, February 4, 2026

The USD/JPY pair gains momentum to around 155.85 during the early Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens against the US Dollar (USD) amid political uncertainty in Japan.

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The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens against the US Dollar (USD) amid political uncertainty in Japan. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will not publish the January employment report on Friday as scheduled due to the partial government shutdown that began on Saturday.Markets brace for heightened volatility ahead of a snap general election on Sunday. Meanwhile, fiscal concerns on the back of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's reflationary policies could undermine the JPY against the USD. Takaichi has pledged to suspend the consumption tax on food for two years if her Liberal Democratic Party wins the snap election. Markets remain alert for potential intervention from Japanese authorities. Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Tuesday that she will continue to closely coordinate with US authorities as needed, based on a joint Japan and US statement issued in September last year, and respond appropriately. Intervention fears could boost the Japanese Yen and act as a headwind for the pair in the near term. On the other hand, shifting expectations for US Federal Reserve (Fed) leadership could support the Greenback. US President Donald Trump nominated former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh to serve as the next Chairman of the US central bank. Traders anticipate a slower pace of interest rate cuts under his tenure and a focus on shrinking the Fed's balance sheet. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI came in at 53.7, above forecasts (53.4) in January

Gold price (XAU/USD) trades in positive territory near $4,985 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The precious metal extends the rebound after a historic and volatile sell-off last week. Traders weigh the next round of US economic signals and the broader demand for safe-haven assets.

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The precious metal extends the rebound after a historic and volatile sell-off last week. Traders weigh the next round of US economic signals and the broader demand for safe-haven assets.CNBC reported on Tuesday that the US military shot down an Iranian drone that "aggressively" approached the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea. The incident occurred as tensions in the Middle East are high, with US President Donald Trump weighing potential military strikes against the Islamic Republic.Iran demanded that talks with the US this week take place in Oman rather than Turkey, and that the scope be limited to two-way conversations on the nuclear issue only, complicating an already delicate diplomatic effort. Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding US-Iran negotiations. Any signs of escalating tensions between the US and Iran could boost traditional safe-haven assets such as Gold in the near term. On the other hand, the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve (Fed) chairman might cap the upside for the yellow metal. Markets see Warsh as a "hawkish" pick for Fed Chair and likely to keep interest rates elevated.Traders dialed back expectations for a Fed rate cut following the Fed's January pause and the nomination of Warsh. Financial markets currently priced in nearly a 66% odds of a rate reduction at the June policy meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.  Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

New Zealand ANZ Commodity Price climbed from previous -2.1% to 2% in January

The NZD/USD pair holds positive ground near 0.6050 during the early Asian session on Wednesday, bolstered by a weaker US Dollar (USD). Increased US policy volatility continues to drag the Greenback lower against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD).

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Increased US policy volatility continues to drag the Greenback lower against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). Traders will take more cues from China’s January RatingDog Services  Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) report, which is due later on Wednesday. Data released by Statistics New Zealand showed on Wednesday that New Zealand’s Unemployment Rate rose to 5.4% in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2025, up from 5.3% in Q3. The figure came in above the market consensus of 5.3% and reached levels last seen in the September 2015 quarter.The higher-than-expected jobless rate could weigh on the Kiwi, as it indicates economic weakness and provides the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) more room to hold or lower interest rates.US President Donald Trump signed a bill to end a partial government shutdown that began on Saturday, per the BBC. The deal passed the US House of Representatives in a 217-214 vote earlier on Tuesday. The package cleared the Senate last Friday.However, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics stated on Monday that a partial government shutdown would delay the release of the highly anticipated employment report for January, which had been due for release this Friday. Political and fiscal uncertainty in the US could undermine the USD and create a tailwind for the pair in the near term.  New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
 

The Pound Sterling (GBP) traded in a narrow range against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, edging modestly higher to near 1.3700 as markets adopted a cautious stance ahead of the Bank of England's (BoE) first policy decision of 2026.

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GBP/USD opened the session at 1.3665 and touched an intraday high near 1.3707, with the pair consolidating below the multi-year high of 1.3869 posted in late January.The BoE is widely expected to leave its Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% when the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) delivers its verdict on Thursday. Market pricing shows only a 4% probability of a rate cut at this meeting, with the next reduction now penciled in for April at the earliest. December's decision to cut rates was narrowly split at 5-4, and Governor Andrew Bailey has cautioned that future cuts will become "a closer call" as rates approach neutral levels.UK manufacturing data supports cautious optimismUK economic data has provided some support for Sterling, with the S&P; Global Manufacturing PMI rising to 51.8 in January from 50.6 in December, marking a 17-month high. The reading exceeded expectations and showed the fourth consecutive month of expansion, with new export orders rising for the first time in four years. Business confidence rebounded to its highest level since before the 2024 Autumn Budget, offering a tentative positive signal for the UK economy.However, UK inflation remains a concern, with Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December showing a rise to 3.4% year-on-year, up from 3.2% in November. This sticky inflation picture has limited the BoE's room for maneuver on rate cuts, even as the labor market shows signs of cooling with unemployment at 5.1%.US Dollar steadies after volatile weekThe US Dollar Index (DXY) traded around 97.5 on Tuesday, easing slightly after a sharp two-day rebound earlier in the session. The Greenback found support following President Donald Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair when Powell's term expires in May. Markets have interpreted the Warsh pick as relatively hawkish, though uncertainty around Fed policy direction persists.The partial US government shutdown, which began Saturday, came to an end on Tuesday after the House passed a funding package by a narrow 217-214 vote. President Trump signed the legislation into law, providing full-year funding for most federal agencies while extending Department of Homeland Security funding for just two weeks. The January Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, originally due Friday, will be delayed due to the shutdown's impact on Bureau of Labor Statistics operations.BoE policy outlook in focusWhile the BoE is expected to stand pat this week, the policy outlook beyond February remains divided. Some economists see as many as four rate cuts in 2026, while markets are pricing in only one or two reductions. BoE policymaker Megan Greene recently noted that rate cuts may be more limited than expected due to strong UK wage growth and the potential impact of Fed policy decisions on UK inflation. The MPC's guidance on Thursday will be closely scrutinized for signals on the pace of future easing.Pound Sterling price forecastGBP/USD continues to trade within a bullish tilt on the daily chart, with price action holding near 1.3700 after pulling back from the January 27 high of 1.3869. The pair remains well above both the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3485 and the 200-day EMA at 1.3338, maintaining a clear bullish bias in the medium term.The recent pullback from multi-year highs has found support near the 1.3650 area, with buyers stepping in on dips. Immediate resistance sits at the psychological 1.3700 level, followed by the recent swing high at 1.3869. A sustained break above 1.3870 would open the door for a move toward 1.3900 and potentially 1.4000 over the coming weeks.The Stochastic Oscillator readings at 73.67 and 83.41 indicate the pair is trading in overbought territory, suggesting short-term momentum may be stretched. This could invite profit-taking or consolidation before another leg higher. On the downside, a break below 1.3650 would expose the 1.3500 area, where the 50-day EMA could provide dynamic support. The broader uptrend remains intact while price holds above the 200-day EMA at 1.3338.GBP/USD daily chart
GDP FAQs What is GDP and how is it recorded? A country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the rate of growth of its economy over a given period of time, usually a quarter. The most reliable figures are those that compare GDP to the previous quarter e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q1 of 2023, or to the same period in the previous year, e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q2 of 2022. Annualized quarterly GDP figures extrapolate the growth rate of the quarter as if it were constant for the rest of the year. These can be misleading, however, if temporary shocks impact growth in one quarter but are unlikely to last all year – such as happened in the first quarter of 2020 at the outbreak of the covid pandemic, when growth plummeted. How does GDP influence currencies? A higher GDP result is generally positive for a nation’s currency as it reflects a growing economy, which is more likely to produce goods and services that can be exported, as well as attracting higher foreign investment. By the same token, when GDP falls it is usually negative for the currency. When an economy grows people tend to spend more, which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation with the side effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors, thus helping the local currency appreciate. How does higher GDP impact the price of Gold? When an economy grows and GDP is rising, people tend to spend more which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold versus placing the money in a cash deposit account. Therefore, a higher GDP growth rate is usually a bearish factor for Gold price.

New Zealand GDT Price Index up to 6.7% from previous 1.5%

The report by Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong from OCBC Bank, indicates that a sub-Bloomberg consensus USDCNY fix signals a growing tolerance for RMB strength. However, authorities appear committed to a measured and orderly appreciation path for the Renminbi (CNY).

The report by Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong from OCBC Bank, indicates that a sub-Bloomberg consensus USDCNY fix signals a growing tolerance for RMB strength. However, authorities appear committed to a measured and orderly appreciation path for the Renminbi (CNY). The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining orderly market dynamics.Authorities favor orderly RMB appreciation"A sub-Bloomberg consensus USDCNY fix signals growing tolerance for RMB strength, but authorities still appear committed to a measured, orderly RMB appreciation path.""This approach aims to prevent markets from rushing to offload USD in a disorderly manner, thereby avoiding any abrupt price fluctuations and ensuring orderly market dynamics."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

New Zealand’s Unemployment Rate rose to 5.4% in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2025 from 5.3% in the third quarter, according to the official data released by Statistics New Zealand on Wednesday. The figure came in above the market consensus of 5.3%.

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Australia S&P Global Services PMI rose from previous 56 to 56.3 in January

Australia S&P Global Composite PMI climbed from previous 55.5 to 55.7 in January

United States API Weekly Crude Oil Stock came in at -11.1M below forecasts (0.7M) in January 30

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