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06:16 Israel’s PM Netanyahu supports Trump’s decision to suspend attacks on Iran
Israeli Prime Minister (PM) Benjamin Netanyahu said during Asian trading hours on Wednesday that the nation supports United States (US) President Donald Trump’s decision to suspend attacks on Iran for two weeks, subject to Iran opening the Strait of Hormuz and stopping attacks, Israeli media reporte
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Israeli Prime Minister (PM) Benjamin Netanyahu said during Asian trading hours on Wednesday that the nation supports United States (US) President Donald Trump’s decision to suspend attacks on Iran for two weeks, subject to Iran opening the Strait of Hormuz and stopping attacks, Israeli media reported.Additional remarksUS told Israel it is committed to achieving shared goals in upcoming negotiations.
Ceasefire does not include Lebanon.Market reactionNo immediate reaction on the US Dollar (USD) after Israeli PMI Netanyahu's comments; however, the market sentiment is already risk-on after US President Trump's announcement of suspension of planned attacks on Iran for two weeks. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY) trades over 0.5% down to near 99.00. Risk sentiment FAQs What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets? In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
Ceasefire does not include Lebanon.Market reactionNo immediate reaction on the US Dollar (USD) after Israeli PMI Netanyahu's comments; however, the market sentiment is already risk-on after US President Trump's announcement of suspension of planned attacks on Iran for two weeks. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY) trades over 0.5% down to near 99.00. Risk sentiment FAQs What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets? In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
05:27 AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Gains momentum, bullish bias prevails above 100-day EMA
The AUD/JPY cross gathers strength to around 111.80 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges higher against the Japanese Yen (JPY) amid improved risk sentiment.
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Technical Analysis:In the daily chart, the near-term bias of AUD/JPY is bullish as price extends its advance well above the 100-day exponential moving average around 107.50, confirming a dominant uptrend and resilient dip demand. The latest candles hold in the upper half of the Bollinger Band envelope, while the bands remain relatively wide, signalling sustained upside momentum rather than a volatility blow-off. RSI has rebounded toward the high-50s, recovering from mid-range readings and aligning with renewed buying pressure after the recent consolidation above the 111.00 handle.Initial support emerges at 111.00, where recent lows converge with the mid-Bollinger zone, and a break below would expose deeper pullback risk toward the 110.00 area. Stronger downside protection aligns near the 109.00 region, close to the Bollinger lower band cluster and prior congestion, and a loss of this floor would weaken the broader bullish structure. On the topside, immediate resistance stands at the March 19 high of 112.61, followed by the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band of 113.15. (The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
Technical Analysis:In the daily chart, the near-term bias of AUD/JPY is bullish as price extends its advance well above the 100-day exponential moving average around 107.50, confirming a dominant uptrend and resilient dip demand. The latest candles hold in the upper half of the Bollinger Band envelope, while the bands remain relatively wide, signalling sustained upside momentum rather than a volatility blow-off. RSI has rebounded toward the high-50s, recovering from mid-range readings and aligning with renewed buying pressure after the recent consolidation above the 111.00 handle.Initial support emerges at 111.00, where recent lows converge with the mid-Bollinger zone, and a break below would expose deeper pullback risk toward the 110.00 area. Stronger downside protection aligns near the 109.00 region, close to the Bollinger lower band cluster and prior congestion, and a loss of this floor would weaken the broader bullish structure. On the topside, immediate resistance stands at the March 19 high of 112.61, followed by the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band of 113.15. (The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
05:15 NZD/USD sticks to gains near two-week top, around 0.5800 after RBNZ leaves rates unchanged
The NZD/USD pair turns positive for the third straight day following a modest Asian session dip to the 0.5700 mark and rallies to a nearly two-week top on Wednesday in reaction to the US-Iran ceasefire news.
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Spot prices stick to strong intraday gains above the 0.5800 mark and move little following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) policy decision.As was widely anticipated, the RBNZ decided to leave the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unadjusted at 2.25% for the second meeting in a row amid uncertainties over the economic and inflation outlook due to the Iran war. The announcement, however, does little to influence the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) or the NZD/USD pair as traders now look to RBNZ Governor Dr. Anna Breman's comments during the post-meeting press conference for some meaningful impetus.In the meantime, positive geopolitical developments remain supportive of the upbeat market mood, which undermines the US Dollar's (USD) reserve currency status and acts as a tailwind for the NZD/USD pair. US President Donald Trump announced that he will suspend planned military strikes against Iran for two weeks, provided Tehran agrees to an immediate and safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Moreover, Iran’s Foreign Minister, Seyed Abbas Araghchi, said in a statement that Tehran will cease its defensive operations if attacks against the country are halted.Iran’s foreign minister further added that safe passage through the key waterway will be possible for a period of two weeks, triggering a steep decline in Crude Oil prices and easing inflationary concerns. This tempers market bets for a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), which, along with the risk-on impulse, continues to weigh on the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and offers support to the NZD/USD pair. Economic Indicator RBNZ Press Conference Following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ)monetary policy decision, the Governor gives a press conference explaining the rationale behind the decision. The comments may influence the volatility of the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and determine a short-term positive or negative trend. Read more. Next release: Wed Apr 08, 2026 03:00 Frequency: Irregular Consensus: - Previous: - Source: Reserve Bank of New Zealand Why it matters to traders? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) holds monetary policy meetings seven times a year, announcing their decision on interest rates and the economic assessments that influenced their decision. The central bank offers clues on the economic outlook and future policy path, which are of high relevance for the NZD valuation. Positive economic developments and upbeat outlook could lead the RBNZ to tighten the policy by hiking interest rates, which tends to be NZD bullish. The policy announcements are usually followed by Governor Anna Breman's press conference.
05:13 AUD/NZD edges lower toward 1.2150 as RBNZ keeps OCR unchanged
AUD/NZD trades around 1.2170 during the Asian hours on Wednesday, halting its winning streak that began on March 30.
.fxs-event-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-event-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-event-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:12px}.fxs-event-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-event-module-header{color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px;margin:0;padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;padding-right:32px}.fxs-event-module-header label{cursor:pointer;display:block}.fxs-event-module-header label:after,.fxs-event-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:17.6px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:20.8px;margin:4px 0 0 0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}AUD/NZD slips as the New Zealand Dollar gains after the RBNZ held Official Cash Rate at 2.25% in April.Traders await RBNZ Governor Dr. Anna Breman’s speech at the post-policy press conference for further guidance.Trump agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran, conditional on reopening the Strait of Hormuz.AUD/NZD trades around 1.2170 during the Asian hours on Wednesday, halting its winning streak that began on March 30. The currency cross inches lower as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) receives support after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decided to keep its Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.25% at its April monetary policy meeting.Traders widely expected the RBNZ to maintain its policy rates due to uncertain economic and inflation outlook, which could be attributed to the rising oil prices due to the Middle East conflict. Traders will likely observe the RBNZ Governor Dr. Anna Breman’s speech at the post-monetary policy meeting press conference due later in the day.The AUD/NZD cross advances as the Australian Dollar (AUD) strengthens amid improved global risk sentiment after US President Donald Trump announced a two-week pause in military action against Iran. The decision, made just before a deadline for intensified strikes, includes a “double-sided ceasefire” tied to Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz.The US-Iran ceasefire may alter the inflation outlook, easing pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to tighten further. Markets had priced a rate hike toward 4.35% at the May meeting, partly due to elevated energy costs following the Strait’s closure. Economic Indicator RBNZ Interest Rate Decision The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announces its interest rate decision after each of its seven scheduled annual policy meetings. If the RBNZ is hawkish and sees inflationary pressures rising, it raises the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to bring inflation down. This is positive for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) since higher interest rates attract more capital inflows. Likewise, if it reaches the view that inflation is too low it lowers the OCR, which tends to weaken NZD. Read more. Last release: Wed Apr 08, 2026 02:00 Frequency: Irregular Actual: 2.25% Consensus: 2.25% Previous: 2.25% Source: Reserve Bank of New Zealand Why it matters to traders? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) holds monetary policy meetings seven times a year, announcing their decision on interest rates and the economic assessments that influenced their decision. The central bank offers clues on the economic outlook and future policy path, which are of high relevance for the NZD valuation. Positive economic developments and upbeat outlook could lead the RBNZ to tighten the policy by hiking interest rates, which tends to be NZD bullish. The policy announcements are usually followed by interim Governor Christian Hawkesby's press conference.
05:00 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision meets forecasts (2.25%)
New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision meets forecasts (2.25%)
04:44 White House: Considering in-person talks with Iran but not been finalised
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt clarified that talks with Iran have not been finalized after the latter said it agreed to talks with the United States (US) to begin Friday in Pakistan.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt clarified that talks with Iran have not been finalized after the latter said it agreed to talks with the United States (US) to begin Friday in Pakistan.“There are discussions about in-person talks, but nothing is final until announced by the President or the White House, Karoline said.
04:35 EUR/JPY trades near 185.00 after losing recent gains
EUR/JPY offers its daily gains, trading around 185.10 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The currency cross trims intraday gains as the Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens on falling oil prices after the US-Iran ceasefire.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/JPY loses daily gains as the Japanese Yen strengthens on falling oil after US-Iran ceasefire.Lower oil costs ease Japan’s imported inflation, reducing price pressures and simplifying the BoJ’s policy outlook.Trump agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran, conditional on reopening the Strait of Hormuz.EUR/JPY offers its daily gains, trading around 185.10 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The currency cross trims intraday gains as the Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens on falling oil prices after the US-Iran ceasefire.As a major net energy importer, Japan benefits from lower oil costs, which ease imported inflation pressures that had been lifting producer and consumer prices and complicating the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) policy outlook. This supports the case for a rate hike by reducing the risk that tighter policy pushes the economy into recession.However, the EUR/JPY cross advanced as the Euro (EUR) found support after US President Donald Trump agreed to pause Iran bombing for two weeks. Trump said in a Truth Social post late Tuesday that he accepted a two-week ceasefire with Iran, conditional on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. A White House official added that Israel has also agreed to the ceasefire.An Iranian official stated that talks with the United States will be held in Islamabad, Pakistan, to finalize details, aiming to translate battlefield gains into political outcomes within 15 days. Iran added that the meeting will start on Friday and could be extended if both sides agree.However, Iran continues military actions in the Middle East and against Israel, with ongoing missile alerts. The Israeli military reported detecting missiles launched from Iran toward Israel, while Qatar’s Defence Ministry confirmed intercepting a missile attack targeting Qatar. Risk sentiment FAQs What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets? In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
04:28 WTI Price Forecast: Seems vulnerable near $90.50 as technical breakdown comes into play
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – plummets to a nearly two-week trough during the Asian session on Wednesday in reaction to news that the US and Iran have agreed to a two-week ceasefire.
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The commodity, however, trims a part of heavy intraday losses and currently trades around mid-$90.00s, still down over 10% for the day.From a technical perspective, an intraday breakdown below the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the lower end of a two-week-old ascending channel could be seen as a key trigger for bearish traders. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 18 reflects stretched downside conditions, assisting Crude Oil prices to find some support at the $86.00 mark and stage a modest recovery.Nevertheless, the aforementioned setup suggests that the path of least resistance for the commodity is to the downside. Adding to this, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator holds below the zero line with the MACD line under its signal line and a negative histogram, suggesting persistent bearish momentum. Hence, any meaningful recovery attempt is more likely to get sold into.Meanwhile, initial resistance emerges at the $91.50–$92.00 area, where intraday supply has recently formed, ahead of stronger resistance at the 200-period SMA near $98, which aligns with the broken channel base and strengthens this zone as a key barrier on rebounds. A move above $98 would be needed to challenge the former channel region toward $96–$100 and weaken the immediate bearish bias.On the downside, immediate support is located at the psychological $90.00 handle, with a break lower opening the way toward $88.50 and then $86.00 as subsequent bearish targets if selling pressure extends. Any stabilization above $90.00 would only signal consolidation while the price remains capped below the 200-period SMA.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)WTI 1-hour chart WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8680 vs. 6.8854 previous
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Wednesday at 6.8680 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.8854 and 6.8369 Reuters estimate.
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The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Wednesday at 6.8680 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.8854 and 6.8369 Reuters estimate. PBOC FAQs What does the People's Bank of China do? The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market. Who owns the PBoC? The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts. What are the main policy tools used by the PBoC? Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi. Are private banks allowed in China? Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
04:09 US Dollar Index softens to near 99.00 as Trump agrees to two-week ceasefire, FOMC Minutes loom
The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, currently trades near 99.05 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday.
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The FOMC Minutes will take center stage on Wednesday. The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, currently trades near 99.05 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The DXY tumbles after US President Donald Trump agrees to a two-week ceasefire after threatening massive attacks. Trump said late Tuesday that he had agreed "to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks” on the condition that Iran reopens the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said safe passage through the key waterway will be possible for a period of two weeks via coordination with Iranian armed forces.Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding the ceasefire. The US and Iran will meet in Islamabad, Pakistan, on Friday to finalize details. Any signs of easing tensions could weigh on the US Dollar as a safe-haven asset. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes will be in the spotlight later on Wednesday. The report could offer more cues on officials' views on the recent energy shock caused by conflicts in the Middle East.Any hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials could support the USD against its rivals in the near term. Meanwhile, overnight-indexed swaps signaled an about-40% probability of a Fed rate cut by the year-end, according to the CME FedWatch tool. US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
The FOMC Minutes will take center stage on Wednesday. The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, currently trades near 99.05 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The DXY tumbles after US President Donald Trump agrees to a two-week ceasefire after threatening massive attacks. Trump said late Tuesday that he had agreed "to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks” on the condition that Iran reopens the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said safe passage through the key waterway will be possible for a period of two weeks via coordination with Iranian armed forces.Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding the ceasefire. The US and Iran will meet in Islamabad, Pakistan, on Friday to finalize details. Any signs of easing tensions could weigh on the US Dollar as a safe-haven asset. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes will be in the spotlight later on Wednesday. The report could offer more cues on officials' views on the recent energy shock caused by conflicts in the Middle East.Any hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials could support the USD against its rivals in the near term. Meanwhile, overnight-indexed swaps signaled an about-40% probability of a Fed rate cut by the year-end, according to the CME FedWatch tool. US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
03:53 USD/CHF hangs near two-week low, around 0.7900 as US-Iran ceasefire triggers USD sell-off
The USD/CHF pair attracts heavy selling during the Asian session on Wednesday and dives to a two-week low amid a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD).
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03:50 NZD/USD rises to near 0.5800 following US-Iran ceasefire, RBNZ decision eyed
NZD/USD extends its winning streak for the third successive day, trading around 0.5790 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair appreciates amid risk-on sentiment after US President Donald Trump agrees to suspend Iran bombing for two weeks.
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The pair appreciates amid risk-on sentiment after US President Donald Trump agrees to suspend Iran bombing for two weeks.Trump shared in a post on Truth Social late Tuesday that he’d agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran on the condition that Iran agree to reopen the critical Strait of Hormuz. A White House official said that Israel has also agreed to the ceasefire.An Iranian official stated that negotiations with the US will be held in Islamabad, Pakistan, to finalize details, aiming to confirm Iran’s battlefield achievements politically within a maximum of 15 days. Iran added that the meeting will begin on Friday and may be extended if both sides agree.However, Iran continues to attack the Middle East and Israel as missile alerts keep sounding. The Israeli military said it has identified missiles launched from Iran towards Israel. The Qatar Defence Ministry also confirmed that armed forces intercepted the missile attack targeting Qatar.Traders expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to extend the pause on its current interest rate-cutting cycle for the second consecutive meeting on Wednesday, leaving the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unadjusted at 2.25%, as the Iran war adds uncertainty to the economic and inflation outlook. Attention will also be on the Monetary Policy Review (MPR) and the Minutes of the meeting. RBNZ Governor Dr. Anna Breman will also hold the post-monetary policy meeting press conference. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
03:26 Canadian Dollar gathers strength as Trump suspends US attacks
The USD/CAD pair declines to around 1.3835 during the early Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The US Dollar (USD) weakens against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) after Iran agrees to a two-week ceasefire with the United States (US).
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Trump agreed to suspend attacks on Iran for two weeks.The FOMC Minutes will be the highlight later on Wednesday. The USD/CAD pair declines to around 1.3835 during the early Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The US Dollar (USD) weakens against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) after Iran agrees to a two-week ceasefire with the United States (US). An Iranian official said late Tuesday that it has accepted a two-week ceasefire, with negotiations to begin on Friday in Pakistan’s Islamabad. This action came after US President Donald Trump stated that he would suspend attacks, subject to Tehran agreeing to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz.Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said safe passage through the key waterway will be possible for a period of two weeks via coordination with Iranian armed forces. The Greenback attracts some sellers following these headlines. Traders await the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes later on Wednesday. The report could offer some insights into how officials view the recent energy shock caused by conflicts in the Middle East. Any hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials could help limit the USD’s losses in the near term. Meanwhile, crude oil prices plunge below $100 as Iran agrees to allow safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz during the ceasefire. This could weigh on the commodity-linked Loonie. It is worth noting that Canada is a major oil-exporting country, and lower crude oil prices generally have a negative impact on the CAD. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
03:25 Iran continues attacks in the Middle East and on Israel, despite the ceasefire
Despite the United States (US) and Iran agreeing to a ceasefire for two weeks, Iranian attacks continue in the Middle East and on Israel as missile alerts keep sounding.
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Despite the United States (US) and Iran agreeing to a ceasefire for two weeks, Iranian attacks continue in the Middle East and on Israel as missile alerts keep sounding.The Israeli military said it has identified missiles launched from Iran towards Israel.Qatar Defence Ministry confirmed that armed forces intercepted the missile attack targeting Qatar.Market reactionInvestors shrug off these headlines and rejoice the truce, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) and Oil price crashing, while Gold and global stocks are through the roof. Related news Iran’s Foreign Minister: Safe passage of Hormuz will be possible for two weeks Iran confirms US negotiations, says ceasefire hinges on finalising 10-point proposal WTI Crude crashes below $90 as Trump suspends Iran strikes, but will it last?
03:24 Japan Trade Balance - BOP Basis dipped from previous ¥3145B to ¥2709B in February
Japan Trade Balance - BOP Basis dipped from previous ¥3145B to ¥2709B in February
03:24 Japan Trade Balance - BOP Basis declined to ¥2.709B in February from previous ¥3145B
Japan Trade Balance - BOP Basis declined to ¥2.709B in February from previous ¥3145B
03:22 Silver rallies to fresh weekly high, above $77.00 as USD plummets on US-Iran ceasefire
Silver (XAG/USD) rallies to a fresh weekly high during the Asian session on Wednesday, with bulls now looking to build on the momentum beyond the $77.00 mark amid a broad-based US Dollar (USD) selloff.
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In response, Iran stated that it has accepted a two-week ceasefire, with negotiations set to begin on Friday in Islamabad, Pakistan. The optimism boosts investors' confidence and weighs heavily on the Greenback, which, in turn, is seen benefiting the USD-denominated commodities, including Silver.Meanwhile, Iran’s foreign minister added that safe passage through the key waterway will be possible for a period of two weeks, triggering a steep decline in Crude Oil prices. This helps ease inflationary concerns and tempers Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets, exerting additional pressure on the USD and further benefiting the non-yielding white metal. However, the lack of follow-through buying warrants some caution for the XAG/USD bulls before positioning for further gains. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
02:51 GBP/USD surges toward 1.3400 as Iran ceasefire deflates the US Dollar
GBP/USD ripped higher on Tuesday as the US Dollar buckled under a wave of risk-on positioning triggered by President Trump's announcement of a two-week ceasefire with Iran.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}GBP/USD jumped to a session high near 1.3400 after Trump announced a two-week suspension of military operations against Iran.UK services PMI was revised sharply lower to 50.5, the weakest reading in eleven months, as the war in the Middle East crushed business optimism.The Bank of England (BoE) meets on April 30 with rate expectations in flux, markets had been pricing hikes before the ceasefire shifted the calculus.FOMC Minutes, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), and US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data all land this week and could dictate the next leg.GBP/USD ripped higher on Tuesday as the US Dollar buckled under a wave of risk-on positioning triggered by President Trump's announcement of a two-week ceasefire with Iran. The pair surged from the low 1.3200s into the upper 1.3300s, reclaiming ground above both the 50 and 200-period hourly moving averages in the process.The move was almost entirely a Dollar story. WTI Crude Oil cratered from above $106 to below $90 per barrel as traders, who had already been fading Trump's deadline rhetoric throughout the session, piled into the selloff once the Truth Social post confirmed the pause. S&P 500 futures jumped over 1%, and the US Dollar Index (DXY) slid back toward 100.00 as the haven bid that had propped up the Greenback for weeks started to unwind.Can the Pound actually hold these levels?That is the uncomfortable question. Sterling's rally on Tuesday was a function of Dollar weakness, not Pound strength. The UK's own fundamentals look increasingly fragile. Final March services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data released earlier on Tuesday came in at 50.5, revised down from a flash estimate of 51.2 and a sharp drop from February's 53.9. The composite reading fell to 50.3. S&P Global flagged the slowest services expansion in eleven months, with new work declining for the first time since November 2025 and input cost inflation hitting an eleven-month high on surging fuel and transportation bills.In short, the UK is flashing stagflation signals. Growth is stalling while costs are accelerating, and the Middle East conflict is the primary driver of both trends.The BoE's impossible trade-off just got more complicatedThe BoE has held rates at 3.75% since December 2025, voting unanimously to stay put at the March meeting. Before the Iran war erupted, markets were pricing two to three cuts in 2026. That expectation was obliterated by the energy shock. By late March, swaps markets had flipped to pricing four quarter-point hikes by year-end, reflecting the passthrough of surging Oil and gas prices into UK inflation.Tuesday's ceasefire throws a wrench into that repricing. If the pause holds and Oil continues to slide, the inflationary impulse weakens and the BoE gets room to resume easing. JP Morgan's Allan Monks had flagged the April 30 meeting as the natural window for a hike if inflation continued to be validated by incoming data, but a sustained drop in energy prices would undercut that thesis. ING's James Smith had already noted that rapid de-escalation could bring the next cut forward to April.The problem is that this is Trump's fourth deadline extension. Markets sold Oil aggressively on each of the prior three pauses, only to buy it all back when diplomacy collapsed. Iran publicly rejected the temporary ceasefire just hours before Trump's announcement and has been demanding a permanent end to hostilities plus sanctions relief. The gap between the two sides remains wide, and Polymarket odds as of Monday put the probability of a lasting ceasefire by end of April at just 22.5%.What to watch this weekWednesday brings the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes from the March meeting (18:00 GMT), along with remarks from Fed officials Daly and Waller. Traders will be parsing the minutes for any discussion of how the Iran conflict is shaping the Federal Reserve's (Fed) inflation outlook. Thursday delivers Core PCE for February (12:30 GMT), the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, alongside Gross Domestic Product (GDP) revisions and initial jobless claims. Friday is the big one: March CPI lands at 12:30 GMT with consensus at 3.3% YoY, down from the prior 2.4% reading. Core CPI is expected at 2.7% YoY versus 2.5% prior.On the UK side, Halifax House Prices and the construction PMI on Wednesday, followed by the BoE Credit Conditions Survey on Thursday, will offer a read on how the domestic economy is absorbing the energy shock. The RICS Housing Price Balance is also due Wednesday night, with consensus at -18% suggesting continued pressure on the property market.The technical pictureGBP/USD is trading near 1.3400 after Tuesday's surge, reclaiming territory it last held in late March. The pair is well above the 200-period EMA at 1.3261 and the Stochastic RSI has room to run before hitting overbought territory. Resistance sits at the recent swing high near 1.3480, while a failure to hold above 1.3300 would suggest the ceasefire rally is fading. The broader range since late March has been defined by the 1.3160 low and the 1.3480 high, and which side breaks first will likely depend on whether this two-week pause produces anything different from the last four.The bottom lineGBP/USD is riding a ceasefire wave, but the pair is caught between a weakening Dollar and a UK economy that is barely growing. If this pause collapses like the others, the haven bid returns, Oil spikes, and the pair gives back Tuesday's gains in a hurry. If it holds, the BoE gets breathing room, the energy premium unwinds further, and Cable has a genuine shot at retesting 1.3480 and beyond. The next 48 hours of data, starting with the FOMC Minutes and ending with CPI, will tell traders whether the macro backdrop supports a sustained move or whether this is just another head-fake in the ceasefire cycle.GBP/USD 1-hour chart
Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
02:50 Japan Current Account n.s.a. below forecasts (¥3549B) in February: Actual (¥3.933B)
Japan Current Account n.s.a. below forecasts (¥3549B) in February: Actual (¥3.933B)
02:43 Iran’s Foreign Minister: Safe passage of Hormuz will be possible for two weeks
Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, said on Tuesday that safe passage of Hormuz will be possible for two weeks. This statement came after US President Donald Trump agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran.
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Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, said on Tuesday that safe passage of Hormuz will be possible for two weeks. This statement came after US President Donald Trump agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran. Key quotesIf attacks are halted, forces will stop actions.
Safe passage of Hormuz will be possible for 2 weeks.
Iran will halt attacks provided attacks against it cease.Market reactionCrude oil prices attract some sellers following this headline. At the time of writing, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is down 14.15% on the day at $88.85 WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Safe passage of Hormuz will be possible for 2 weeks.
Iran will halt attacks provided attacks against it cease.Market reactionCrude oil prices attract some sellers following this headline. At the time of writing, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is down 14.15% on the day at $88.85 WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
02:30 Iran confirms US negotiations, says ceasefire hinges on finalising 10-point proposal
An Iranian official stated that it has accepted a two-week ceasefire after US President Donald Trump said he would suspend attacks, subject to Tehran agreeing to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
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An Iranian official stated that it has accepted a two-week ceasefire after US President Donald Trump said he would suspend attacks, subject to Tehran agreeing to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz.Iran added that negotiations with the US will be held in Islamabad, Pakistan, to finalize details, aiming to confirm Iran’s battlefield achievements politically within a maximum of 15 days. Discussions will begin on Friday and may be extended if both sides agree.Additional takeaways Negotiations with US will be held in Islamabad, Pakistan to finalize details, aiming to confirm Iran’s battlefield achievements politically within a maximum of 15 days.
Discussions will begin Friday, April 10th and may be extended if both sides agree.
10-point proposal included controlled transit through the Strait of Hormuz coordinated with Iranian armed forces, ending war against Iran and allied groups, withdrawal of US combat forces from all regional bases.
Talks with US do not mean end of war.
Will only accept war conclusion once details are finalised according to the 10-point plan.
10-point proposal included lifting all primary and secondary sanctions, payment of full compensation to Iran and release of all frozen Iranian assets. Risk sentiment FAQs What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets? In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
Discussions will begin Friday, April 10th and may be extended if both sides agree.
10-point proposal included controlled transit through the Strait of Hormuz coordinated with Iranian armed forces, ending war against Iran and allied groups, withdrawal of US combat forces from all regional bases.
Talks with US do not mean end of war.
Will only accept war conclusion once details are finalised according to the 10-point plan.
10-point proposal included lifting all primary and secondary sanctions, payment of full compensation to Iran and release of all frozen Iranian assets. Risk sentiment FAQs What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets? In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
02:30 Japan Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) came in at 3.3%, above forecasts (2.7%) in February
Japan Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) came in at 3.3%, above forecasts (2.7%) in February
02:17 USD/JPY retreats from 160.00 as ceasefire crushes Oil premium
USD/JPY reversed sharply on Tuesday, touching a session high around 160.50 before collapsing below 159.00 to settle near 158.85.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/JPY touched 160.46 before reversing sharply as the ceasefire sent the US Dollar tumbling across the board.Japan's household spending dropped 1.8% YoY in February, far worse than the 0.7% decline expected by economists.The Oil crash below $90 eases import cost pressures on Japan, strengthening the case for a BoJ hike this month.USD/JPY reversed sharply on Tuesday, touching a session high around 160.50 before collapsing below 159.00 to settle near 158.85. The pair had briefly breached 160.00 for the first time since July 2024, a level that previously triggered direct intervention from Japan's Ministry of Finance, before the late-session reversal erased the entire day's gains and then some. The selloff accelerated after President Trump announced a two-week suspension of military operations against Iran, crushing the US Dollar's safe-haven bid.On the Japanese Yen side, the collapse in WTI Crude Oil from above $106 to below $90 per barrel is a significant relief for Japan as a major net energy importer. Elevated oil costs had been feeding through to producer and consumer prices, complicating the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) rate path. The plunge may ease some of that imported inflation pressure, though it also strengthens the case for a rate hike by reducing the risk that tighter policy tips the economy into recession. February household spending fell 1.8% YoY, significantly worse than the 0.7% decline consensus, suggesting consumer demand remains fragile even before the full impact of higher energy costs. Markets continue to price in roughly a 70% probability of a BoJ rate hike later this month. Finance Minister Katayama flagged rising speculative activity in currency markets last week, and Prime Minister Takaichi said she would pursue direct talks with both Iran's leadership and President Trump. Thursday's Japanese Producer Price Index (PPI) data could further inform the BoJ's calculus ahead of the April 28 meeting.On the US Dollar side, S&P 500 futures surged 1.1% and Nasdaq futures jumped 1.2% on the ceasefire confirmation, pulling capital out of the Dollar and into risk assets. The pause was brokered by Pakistan's Prime Minister, with Trump describing a 10-point Iranian proposal as a "workable basis" for negotiation, though Tehran had publicly rejected a 45-day ceasefire just hours earlier. This was Trump's fourth deadline extension since the conflict began in late February, and traders had been positioning for exactly this outcome throughout the session. February Durable Goods Orders missed at negative 1.4%, though the ex-transportation reading was firmer at 0.8%. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes are due Wednesday, alongside speeches from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials Daly and Waller. The key question now is whether physical shipping traffic actually resumes through the Strait of Hormuz; without that, the Oil premium will rebuild and the Dollar's safe-haven bid will return.USD/JPY 1-hour chartUSD/JPY drops below the 200-period EMA on the one-hour chart as Stochastic drifts in neutral territoryOn the one-hour chart, USD/JPY has fallen below the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 159.50, after failing at the 160.50 high. The pair is now trading close to 158.85, well below that moving average, with the Stochastic Oscillator sitting in neutral territory after pulling back from an earlier overbought reading. The sharp rejection from 160.00 and the break below the 200-period EMA suggest sellers have gained control in the short term. A break below the 158.30 area would expose the March lows near 157.50, while a reclaim of 159.50 and the 200-period EMA would be the first sign of buyers re-engaging toward the 160.00 level. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
02:15 AUD/USD surges past 0.7050 as Trump suspends Iran strikes for two weeks
AUD/USD surged over 1.3% on Tuesday, rallying from around 0.6970 to trade close to 0.7060 by the close of the session.
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The move came as risk appetite roared back after President Trump announced a two-week suspension of military operations against Iran, sending WTI Crude Oil crashing from above $106 to below $90 per barrel. The pair reclaimed territory above a key moving average on the four-hour chart and posted its strongest single-session gain in weeks.On the Australian Dollar side, the ceasefire could materially shift the inflation outlook that has been driving Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate hike expectations. Markets had been pricing in a potential move to 4.35% or higher at the May meeting, fueled in part by surging energy costs since the Strait of Hormuz closure in late February. WTI Crude Oil's plunge below $90, still roughly 55% above its pre-war level near $58, may take some heat off the energy component if it holds, though analysts warn supply normalization could take months even under a permanent deal. Domestically, the S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for March fell to 46.6 from 47, while the TD-MI Inflation Gauge jumped 1.3% MoM, with the annual rate rising to 4.3% from 3.6%. The weak PMI and hot inflation print continue to pull the RBA in opposite directions.On the US Dollar side, the ceasefire announcement landed just before Trump's own midnight GMT Wednesday deadline, after which he had threatened to destroy Iranian bridges and power plants within four hours. Pakistan's Prime Minister brokered the pause, and Trump described a 10-point proposal from Tehran as a "workable basis" for negotiation, though Iran had publicly rejected a 45-day ceasefire just hours earlier and continues to demand a permanent end to hostilities. S&P 500 futures surged 1.1% and Nasdaq futures jumped 1.2% on confirmation, crushing the US Dollar's safe-haven bid. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes are due Wednesday, alongside speeches from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials Daly and Waller. February Durable Goods Orders fell 1.4% on Tuesday, missing expectations, though the ex-transportation reading came in firmer at 0.8%. The real test now is whether actual shipping traffic resumes through the Strait of Hormuz; traders have seen Trump set and extend deadlines four times since the conflict began in late February, and the market will need to see physical flows before pricing in a durable risk-on shift.AUD/USD 4-hour chartAUD/USD reclaims the 200-period EMA on the four-hour chart as Stochastic pushes toward overboughtOn the four-hour chart, AUD/USD has broken sharply above the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) close to 0.6970, which had capped price for much of the past two weeks. The Stochastic Oscillator has surged from the lower half of its range and is now approaching the overbought zone, suggesting strong upside momentum but also warning of a potential near-term cooldown. A sustained hold above 0.7000 would open a path back toward the year-to-date high near 0.7120, while a failure to hold above the 200-period EMA around 0.6970 would suggest the rally was a one-off ceasefire reaction and shift focus back to support close to 0.6900. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
02:15 EUR/USD climbs above 1.1650 after Trump agrees to two-week ceasefire with Iran
The EUR/USD pair surges to around 1.1670 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The Euro (EUR) strengthens against the Greenback after US President Donald Trump agrees to a two-week ceasefire with Iran.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD jumps to near 1.1670 in Wednesday’s early Asian session.Trump agreed to two-week ceasefire with IranTraders brace for the FOMC Minutes later on Wednesday.The EUR/USD pair surges to around 1.1670 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The Euro (EUR) strengthens against the Greenback after US President Donald Trump agrees to a two-week ceasefire with Iran. A White House official said that Trump said he’d agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran on Tuesday on the condition that Iran agree to reopen the critical Strait of Hormuz. Israel has also agreed to the ceasefire, per CNN. Trump’s announcement came after Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s proposed the ceasefire to allow for diplomatic negotiations between the US and Iran.Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding the US-Iran ceasefire. Signs of easing tension in the Middle East could underpin the riskier assets such as the shared currency in the near term.Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will take center stage later on Wednesday. The report could offer some insights into how officials view the recent energy shock caused by conflicts in the Middle East. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
02:06 WTI Crude crashes below $90 as Trump suspends Iran strikes, but will it last?
WTI Crude Oil plunged from above $106 to below $90 per barrel on Tuesday after President Trump announced a two-week suspension of military operations against Iran, though markets had already been selling Oil throughout the session as traders bet he would blink on his own 00:00 GMT Wednesday deadline
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S&P 500 E-minis surged 1.1%, and Nasdaq futures jumped 1.2% on the confirmation, but logical warnings exist that infrastructure damage to Gulf production facilities means supply normalization could take months even if a permanent deal is reached.What just happened?West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil's war premium just took its biggest hit in weeks, and the market saw it coming. WTI Crude Oil cratered from above $106 to back below $90 per barrel on Tuesday, its sharpest intraday decline since the conflict began. The crash came after President Trump posted on Truth Social that he would suspend bombing and attacks on Iran for two weeks. But the selloff did not begin with that post. Prices had been leaking lower throughout the session as traders, now well-versed in Trump's pattern of setting aggressive deadlines only to extend them, positioned for exactly this outcome. By the time the announcement hit, the market had already done much of the heavy lifting.Traders had the playbook memorizedThis was Trump's fourth deadline for Iran since the conflict began in late February. Each prior ultimatum followed the same arc: inflammatory rhetoric, a hard deadline, last-minute diplomatic activity, then an extension. The late-March five-day pause sent WTI tumbling 11% in a single session. The April 1 "ceasefire" claim produced another sharp dip before prices ground back higher. Traders did not need to wait for the Truth Social post this time around. Reports earlier in the day that Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey were making a last-ditch mediation push gave the market its cue, and the S&P 500 erased a 1.2% intraday decline well before Trump confirmed the pause. Oil followed suit, sliding steadily from the session high above $106 before the announcement turned an orderly retreat into a vertical drop that tested territory south of $90 per barrel.Pakistan brokers the off-rampThe ceasefire came together through Pakistani mediation. Trump cited conversations with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir as the catalyst, noting that Pakistan had requested he hold off on what he described as "destructive force being sent tonight to Iran." The deal is conditional: Iran must agree to the "complete, immediate, and safe opening" of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump called it a "double-sided ceasefire" and said a 10-point proposal received from Tehran was a "workable basis" for negotiation. The announcement landed just before his own 00:00 GMT Wednesday deadline, after which he had threatened to destroy every bridge and power plant in the country within four hours.How much premium is left to unwind?The numbers tell the story of just how inflated Oil prices have become. WTI traded below $58 in January before the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran began on February 28. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz choked off roughly 20% of global seaborne Oil supply, which Goldman Sachs has called the largest supply disruption in the history of the global crude market. TD Securities estimates nearly 1 billion barrels of crude and refined products will be lost by the end of April. Even after Tuesday's crash below $90, WTI is still roughly 55% above its pre-war level. The futures curve already prices Brent at $90 by August, suggesting the market sees further downside if the ceasefire holds. Goldman's Q4 2026 base case sits at $67 WTI and $71 Brent, assuming gradual Strait reopening. JPMorgan's pre-war outlook had Brent in the $60 range.Don't pop the champagne yetThe market may have correctly front-run this particular deadline extension, but the trade is far from clean. Iran had publicly rejected a 45-day ceasefire proposal just hours before this announcement and had been demanding a permanent end to hostilities, war reparations, and sanctions relief. The two-week window gives both sides room to negotiate, but the gap between their positions remains wide. Polymarket odds as of Monday put the probability of a ceasefire by end of April at just 22.5%, rising to 51.5% by end of June. Infrastructure damage to Gulf production facilities also means that even a genuine peace deal would not restore supply overnight. Analysts at Rapidan Energy project a total net loss of 630 million barrels of Oil and products by the end of June, accounting for redirected pipeline flows, emergency stockpile releases, and inventory drawdowns.What to watch nextThe real question is whether this two-week window produces anything different from the last four deadline cycles. Traders will be watching for actual Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic to resume, not just diplomatic language. Staying below $90 per barrel requires genuine flows at something close to pre-war volumes. The market has proven it will sell first and ask questions later when ceasefire headlines land, but it has also proven it will buy everything back just as fast when diplomacy stalls. If this pause collapses like the others, the $116 high seen earlier this week may not hold as the ceiling for long.WTI 15-minute chart
WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
02:00 South Korea Current Account Balance climbed from previous 13.26B to 23.19B in February
South Korea Current Account Balance climbed from previous 13.26B to 23.19B in February
01:46 Gold jumps above $4,750 on Trump’s Iran strike delay
Gold price (XAU/USD) rises to near $4,775 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The precious metal attracts some buyers after US President Donald Trump agrees to suspend Iran bombing for two weeks.
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The precious metal attracts some buyers after US President Donald Trump agrees to suspend Iran bombing for two weeks.Trump revealed via a post on Truth Social that he will suspend the attacks for two weeks. This action came after Pakistan, a mediator between the US and Iran, requested that Trump grant a two-week ceasefire and extension to a deadline he imposed on Iran to end its blockade of Gulf oil.Oil prices have surged since the Iran conflict intensified, raising supply concerns. Higher energy costs feed into inflation, leaving central banks with little leeway to cut interest rates. Gold is often used amid geopolitical uncertainty but does not yield interest, making it less attractive when interest rates are high.Traders will keep an eye on the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) meeting in March, which will be released on Wednesday. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
01:37 Breaking: US President Donald Trump delays bombing for two weeks
US President Donald Trump revealed via a post in Truth Social that he's suspending the attacks by two weeks.
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US President Donald Trump revealed via a post in Truth Social that he's suspending the attacks by two weeks. His Truth Social post said: "Based on conversations with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir, of Pakistan, and wherein they requested that I hold off the destructive force being sent tonight to Iran, and subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz, I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks. This will be a double sided CEASEFIRE! The reason for doing so is that we have already met and exceeded all Military objectives, and are very far along with a definitive Agreement concerning Longterm PEACE with Iran, and PEACE in the Middle East. We received a 10 point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate. Almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to between the United States and Iran, but a two week period will allow the Agreement to be finalized and consummated. On behalf of the United States of America, as President, and also representing the Countries of the Middle East, it is an Honor to have this Longterm problem close to resolution. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP"Story in further development... Risk sentiment FAQs What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets? In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
01:28 NZD: RBNZ seen steady as markets overprice hikes – TD Securities
TD Securities’ Global Strategy Team expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to leave the Official Cash Rate unchanged, in line with market consensus. The analysts think RBNZ communication will stress patience in responding to supply shocks while the economy runs below capacity.
TD Securities’ Global Strategy Team expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to leave the Official Cash Rate unchanged, in line with market consensus. The analysts think RBNZ communication will stress patience in responding to supply shocks while the economy runs below capacity. They see current market pricing of more than 75 bps of hikes in 2026 as excessive and will scrutinize Minutes for any hint of earlier tightening.RBNZ expected to push back on hikes"We and the market do not expect any change in the cash rate at this meeting.""Like the Governor's speech last week, the Bank's communication is likely to reaffirm the Bank's reluctance to respond impulsively to the supply shock, especially when the economy is operating below capacity.""This should challenge the market's pricing of more than 75bps of hikes this year.""We will scan the Minutes for any signs the RBNZ may consider shifting its stance in favor of bringing forward hikes earlier."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
00:59 NZD/USD stays neutral ahead of RBNZ decision as geopolitical risks and policy outlook weigh
The NZD/USD pair is trading near the 0.5720 region on Wednesday, holding a neutral tone as the US Dollar (USD) remains supported by safe-haven demand while traders brace for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) monetary policy decision.
Focus shifts to RBNZ guidance, as the rate hold is already priced in.Inflation near 3.1% seen as partly temporary, with policymakers likely to look through energy-driven pressures.Hawkish signals may support the NZD, while a cautious stance keeps downside risks in play.The NZD/USD pair is trading near the 0.5720 region on Wednesday, holding a neutral tone as the US Dollar (USD) remains supported by safe-haven demand while traders brace for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) monetary policy decision.Geopolitical tensions continue to dominate sentiment after United States (US) President Donald Trump reinforced a hardline stance on Iran, setting the deadline to a few hours from now, while Tehran reportedly cut diplomatic communication channels with the United States. The escalation around the Strait of Hormuz keeps markets on edge, supporting the USD through risk aversion and elevated energy prices.As a result, investors will closely assess whether the RBNZ leans toward a more cautious stance or keeps the door open for further tightening. A more hawkish tone could provide limited support to the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), while a neutral or patient approach may leave the currency exposed to ongoing downside pressures amid a stronger USD.
Technical analysis:On the 4-hour chart, NZD/USD trades at 0.5735. The near-term bias is mildly bullish as price pushes back above the 20-period Moving Average (0.5710) while remaining well below the declining 100-period Moving Average (0.5780), which still caps the broader trend. The Relative Strength Index at 56 rises above the midline, indicating recovering upside momentum after a period of subdued trading around 0.57.Immediate resistance stands at 0.5736, where a horizontal barrier converges with the recent breakout area, followed by the 100-period Moving Average near 0.5780 and the 0.5907 level. On the downside, initial support aligns at 0.5724, with 0.5704 and 0.5702 reinforcing a tight demand zone that has contained recent pullbacks; a break below this band would expose the broader downtrend, while holding above it keeps the short-term recovery scope toward the upper resistances.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Technical analysis:On the 4-hour chart, NZD/USD trades at 0.5735. The near-term bias is mildly bullish as price pushes back above the 20-period Moving Average (0.5710) while remaining well below the declining 100-period Moving Average (0.5780), which still caps the broader trend. The Relative Strength Index at 56 rises above the midline, indicating recovering upside momentum after a period of subdued trading around 0.57.Immediate resistance stands at 0.5736, where a horizontal barrier converges with the recent breakout area, followed by the 100-period Moving Average near 0.5780 and the 0.5907 level. On the downside, initial support aligns at 0.5724, with 0.5704 and 0.5702 reinforcing a tight demand zone that has contained recent pullbacks; a break below this band would expose the broader downtrend, while holding above it keeps the short-term recovery scope toward the upper resistances.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
00:53 Asia FX: Cautious outlook with Iran risks – MUFG
MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Michael Wan highlights that escalating tensions between the US and Iran, including threats over the Strait of Hormuz (SoH), keep the path to peace narrow and uncertain.
MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Michael Wan highlights that escalating tensions between the US and Iran, including threats over the Strait of Hormuz (SoH), keep the path to peace narrow and uncertain. He remains cautious on Asian currencies and regional risk assets as Oil supply risks persist, even as some marginal improvements in tanker flows and potential Iraqi exports through the Strait of Hormuz emerge.Asia FX weighed by Iran conflict risks"Overall, our continued assessment is that the path towards peace is narrow and unlikely, given the wide gap in expectations among the different parties in this war.""As such we remain cautious on the path for Asian currencies and risk assets moving forward, but note at least two important developments in oil markets and potentially positive ones notwithstanding continued uncertainty around how the Iran/Middle East conflict will develop: Overall, our takeaway is that it is an improvement at the margin in terms of flows from SoH, and we should watch carefully for how these develop.""For Asia however, even if the SoH were to reopen completely today, it will take some time for actual supply to come onstream and flow through, with some suggesting at least 3-6 months timeline, with petrochemicals the worst impacted.""While tactically speaking the war could eventually end from 3 key constraints – Munitions, Markets, and the Mid-terms, how we get there will be important including what the pain threshold is for oil prices to rise further from here."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
00:52 USD/JPY tests 160.00 as ceasefire uncertainty keeps the Yen under pressure
Trump's 8 pm ET deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz looms as ceasefire talks stall and oil tops $100.
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The pair reached its highest level since July 2024, a threshold that previously triggered direct intervention from Japan's Ministry of Finance. The late-session decline came as headlines around ceasefire discussions picked up, though the pair held above its key moving averages.On the Japanese Yen side, February household spending fell 1.8% YoY, significantly worse than the 0.7% decline consensus and the 1.0% drop recorded previously, suggesting consumer demand remains fragile. Labor cash earnings rose 2.7% YoY in February, matching expectations but slowing from 3.0% in January. The preliminary Leading Economic Index for February edged up to 112.4, slightly above consensus. Despite the weak spending data, markets continue to price in roughly a 70% probability of a Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike later this month, with Governor Ueda's recent hawkish signals keeping expectations firm. Finance Minister Katayama flagged rising speculative activity in currency markets on Friday, and Prime Minister Takaichi said she would pursue direct talks with both Iran's leadership and President Trump. Thursday's Japanese Producer Price Index (PPI) data could further inform the BoJ's inflation calculus ahead of the April 28 meeting.On the US Dollar side, the focus sits squarely on Wednesday's events. President Trump has set an 8 pm ET deadline for Iran to agree to a ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with Pakistan's Prime Minister requesting a two-week extension. Iran has rejected temporary ceasefire proposals and is pushing for a permanent end to the war. The US struck targets on Iran's Kharg Island overnight, though oil infrastructure was reportedly spared. The FOMC Minutes are due Wednesday evening, alongside speeches from Fed officials Daly and Waller, which may offer further clarity on the rate path after the Fed held at 3.50% to 3.75% in March.USD/JPY 15-minute chartTechnical AnalysisIn the 15-minute chart, USD/JPY trades at 159.57. The near-term bias is mildly bearish as prices slip below the day’s opening area and edge closer to the 200-period exponential moving average, which is flattening around 159.70 and losing upside influence. The pair has been making lower intraday highs, while Stochastic RSI remains suppressed in the lower quartile of its range, signaling weak upside momentum and favoring continued pressure on immediate supports rather than a sustained rebound.Initial support is located near 159.50, just beneath current prices, where a decisive break would expose the 159.30 region as the next intraday floor. Below that, focus would shift toward 159.00 as a deeper corrective objective. On the upside, the 200-period EMA around 159.70 now acts as first resistance, with a recovery through this cap needed to ease the bearish tone and open the way toward 159.90. A sustained move above 159.90 would neutralize the short-term downside bias and point to a retest of the 160.20 zone.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
00:49 AUD/USD edges higher as ceasefire hopes lift risk appetite ahead of deadline
AUD/USD rose around 0.4% on Tuesday, recovering from early session lows near 0.6900 to trade close to 0.6950. The pair pushed briefly toward the 0.6980 area during the session, its highest level in over a week, as ceasefire optimism fueled a broad improvement in risk sentiment.
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The pair pushed briefly toward the 0.6980 area during the session, its highest level in over a week, as ceasefire optimism fueled a broad improvement in risk sentiment. The move erased the prior session's modest decline and pushed price back above a key moving average on the daily chart.On the Australian Dollar side, the S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for March fell to 46.6 from 47, while the Services PMI slipped to 46.3 from 46.6, pointing to a further contraction in private sector output. Separately, the TD-MI Inflation Gauge jumped 1.3% MoM in March after a 0.2% decline in February, with the annual rate rising to 4.3% from 3.6%. The elevated inflation reading reinforces expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may need to hike again at the May meeting, with markets now pricing in a potential move toward 4.35% or higher. ANZ Job Advertisements fell 3.1% in March, a soft signal for the labor market that may temper hawkish expectations slightly.On the US Dollar side, February Durable Goods Orders fell 1.4%, missing the consensus forecast of a 0.5% decline, though the ex-transportation reading came in stronger at 0.8%. The ADP Employment Change four-week average rose to 26K from 10K. Federal Reserve (Fed) speakers were mixed on Tuesday, with Governor Williams delivering a neutral score and Governor Goolsbee leaning hawkish. Markets remain focused on Wednesday's 8 pm ET deadline set by President Trump for Iran to agree to a deal and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Pakistan's Prime Minister has proposed a two-week ceasefire window, and a response from the White House is expected. An agreement, or even a credible extension of the deadline, could further weigh on crude oil prices and ease inflationary pressures globally, benefiting risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian Dollar. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes are also due Wednesday, alongside speeches from Fed officials Daly and Waller.AUD/USD 15-minute chartTechnical AnalysisIn the 15-minute chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.6976. The near-term bias is mildly bullish as price holds above the rising 200-period exponential moving average near 0.6927, confirming an intraday uptrend structure after a steady sequence of higher closes. Stochastic RSI remains anchored in elevated territory, signalling persistent upside momentum rather than a completed overbought reversal, which supports the view that dips are likely to attract buyers while the pair remains above its intraday trend base.Initial support emerges at 0.6955, guarding a deeper pullback toward 0.6935 and the 0.6927 area where the 200-period EMA reinforces a stronger support zone. On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at 0.6980, with a break exposing the 0.7000 psychological barrier as the next upside objective. As long as price action holds above 0.6935, the path of least resistance favors continuation toward 0.7000 rather than a sustained reversal lower.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
00:21 Pakistan PM Sharif asks Trump to extend Iran Hormuz deadline by two weeks
Recently, Pakistan requested a two-week extension from US President Donald Trump to a deadline that he imposed eleven days ago.
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Recently, Pakistan requested a two-week extension from US President Donald Trump to a deadline that he imposed eleven days ago. According to a senior Iranian official, Tehran is “positively reviewing Pakistan's request for a two-week ceasefire.” At the same time, the White House is aware of Pakistan's proposal, suggesting a response will follow.Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif posted on X, “To allow diplomacy to run its course, I earnestly request President Trump to extend the deadline for two weeks. Pakistan, in all sincerity, requests the Iranian brothers to open Strait of Hormuz for a corresponding period of two weeks as a goodwill gesture.”Trump’s deadline on Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz will end in about two-hours at 8:00 PM EDT in Washington, as Washington presses Tehran to end the blockade of Gulf Oil.The Pakistan Prime Minister added that the ceasefire is needed “to allow diplomacy to achieve conclusive termination of war.”Reaction on the headlineThe US Dollar Index (DXY) which tracks the performance of the buck's value against a basket of six currencies is tumbling over 0.34% on the headline, while US equities pared some of its earlier losses and turned green.US equitiesGold price (XAU/USD) soared over 1%, back above the $4,700 threshold, sponsored by the fall in Oil prices, mainly WTI.WTI turned negative on the day, after reaching a daily high past $117.50 a barrel, slumps over 2%, down at $110.33: Risk sentiment FAQs What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets? In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
00:16 United States API Weekly Crude Oil Stock fell from previous 10.263M to 3.719M in April 3
United States API Weekly Crude Oil Stock fell from previous 10.263M to 3.719M in April 3
00:15 RBNZ set to hold interest rate, keeping options open as inflation risks build
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is set to extend the pause on its current interest rate-cutting cycle for the second consecutive meeting on Wednesday, leaving the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unadjusted at 2.25%, as the Iran war adds uncertainty to the economic and inflation outlook.
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.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is set to hold the key interest rate at 2.25% for a second straight meeting on Wednesday.The RBNZ’s Monetary Policy Review and Governor Breman’s words will be closely scrutinized for policy guidance.The New Zealand Dollar is expected to rock in reaction to the RBNZ policy announcements.The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is set to extend the pause on its current interest rate-cutting cycle for the second consecutive meeting on Wednesday, leaving the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unadjusted at 2.25%, as the Iran war adds uncertainty to the economic and inflation outlook.The decision is widely expected and will be announced at 02:00 GMT, accompanied by the Monetary Policy Review (MPR) and the Minutes of the meeting. RBNZ Governor Dr. Anna Breman will hold the post-monetary policy meeting press conference at 03:00 GMT.The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could experience intense volatility on either a probable hawkish pivot from the RBNZ or its wait-and-see stance. What to expect from the RBNZ interest rate decision? With a rate on-hold decision fully baked in, markets will dissect the RBNZ MPR and Governor Breman’s commentary for any hints on a likely rate hike this year in the wake of the energy shock-driven higher inflation projections.During the press conference, Breman is expected to stick to the script delivered in her recent speech on March 23.Back then, Breman said that the Bank is “looking for second-round effects” and “if inflation expectations shift, (it) will act. ““[We] do not want to react too soon to inflationary pressures,” she added, safeguarding against premature tightening of financial conditions. New Zealand’s annual inflation rate stood at 3.1% in the quarter ending December 2025, slightly above the RBNZ’s target range of 1% to 3%.The Minutes of the meeting will also hold some relevance as these could provide insights about a probable debate among policymakers over the likelihood of second-round persistent inflation, potentially offering policy guidance.“Like the Governor's speech last week, the Bank's communication is likely to reaffirm the Bank's reluctance to respond impulsively to the supply shock, especially when the economy is operating below capacity, Analysts at TD Securities (TDS) said. “This should challenge the market's pricing of more than 75bps of hikes this year.”How will the RBNZ interest rate decision impact the New Zealand Dollar?The NZD/USD pair hovers near the five-month lows of 0.5681 in the lead-up to the RBNZ showdown. Will the RBNZ’s hawkish pivot rescue the Kiwi bulls? If the RBNZ surprises with hints on a potential shift toward interest-rate hikes later this year, the NZD could embark upon a sustained recovery against the US Dollar (USD).On the contrary, if the central bank dismisses concerns over the near-term inflation shock and sticks to a wait-and-see stance, the Kiwi Dollar could resume its bearish trend.Dhwani Mehta, Asian Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, offers a brief technical outlook for NZD/USD and explains:“The Kiwi remains vulnerable, despite the dead cat bounce. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds well below the midline, while a Bear Cross is playing out. The 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) closed below the 100-day SMA on April 1, confirming the bearish bias.”“The immediate resistance is seen at the 0.5750 psychological level on the road to recovery. The next topside hurdles align at the 0.5800 round figure and the 100-day SMA at 0.5840. On the flip side, strong support is seen at the 0.5600 threshold, below which the November 2025 low of 0.5580 will be at risk. The line in the sand for NZD bulls is at the 0.5550 mark,” Dhwani adds. Economic Indicator RBNZ Interest Rate Decision The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announces its interest rate decision after each of its seven scheduled annual policy meetings. If the RBNZ is hawkish and sees inflationary pressures rising, it raises the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to bring inflation down. This is positive for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) since higher interest rates attract more capital inflows. Likewise, if it reaches the view that inflation is too low it lowers the OCR, which tends to weaken NZD. Read more. Next release: Wed Apr 08, 2026 02:00 Frequency: Irregular Consensus: 2.25% Previous: 2.25% Source: Reserve Bank of New Zealand Why it matters to traders? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) holds monetary policy meetings seven times a year, announcing their decision on interest rates and the economic assessments that influenced their decision. The central bank offers clues on the economic outlook and future policy path, which are of high relevance for the NZD valuation. Positive economic developments and upbeat outlook could lead the RBNZ to tighten the policy by hiking interest rates, which tends to be NZD bullish. The policy announcements are usually followed by interim Governor Christian Hawkesby's press conference. RBNZ FAQs What is the Reserve Bank of New Zealand? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is the country’s central bank. Its economic objectives are achieving and maintaining price stability – achieved when inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), falls within the band of between 1% and 3% – and supporting maximum sustainable employment. How does the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s monetary policy influence the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decides the appropriate level of the Official Cash Rate (OCR) according to its objectives. When inflation is above target, the bank will attempt to tame it by raising its key OCR, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money and thus cooling the economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. Why does the Reserve Bank of New Zealand care about employment? Employment is important for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) because a tight labor market can fuel inflation. The RBNZ’s goal of “maximum sustainable employment” is defined as the highest use of labor resources that can be sustained over time without creating an acceleration in inflation. “When employment is at its maximum sustainable level, there will be low and stable inflation. However, if employment is above the maximum sustainable level for too long, it will eventually cause prices to rise more and more quickly, requiring the MPC to raise interest rates to keep inflation under control,” the bank says. What is Quantitative Easing (QE)? In extreme situations, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) can enact a monetary policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the RBNZ prints local currency and uses it to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions with the aim to increase the domestic money supply and spur economic activity. QE usually results in a weaker New Zealand Dollar (NZD). QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objectives of the central bank. The RBNZ used it during the Covid-19 pandemic.
00:11 Philippines: Inflation forecast lifted as BSP seen on hold – UOB
UOB economists Julia Goh and Loke Siew Ting report that Philippine headline inflation jumped above the BSP target in March, driven by higher transport, electricity and food costs and a weaker Philippine Peso (PHP).
UOB economists Julia Goh and Loke Siew Ting report that Philippine headline inflation jumped above the BSP target in March, driven by higher transport, electricity and food costs and a weaker Philippine Peso (PHP). They have raised its 2026 inflation forecast and still expects the central bank of the Philippines, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) to keep its policy rate at 4.25% on 23 April and through 1Q27.Higher CPI and steady BSP outlook"Given the duration and severity of the Middle East conflict remain uncertain while the Philippines’ economy is still recovering from the fallout of public works-related scandals, we believe BSP will likely look through supply-driven inflation pressures and prioritise sustaining domestic growth momentum and jobs in the immediate term.""At its off-cycle Monetary Board meeting on 26 Mar, the BSP acknowledged the limited effectiveness of monetary policy in addressing supply-side inflation, signalling a shift toward monitoring potential second-round effects, with core inflation guiding near-term policy decisions.""Against this backdrop, we continue to expect the BSP to keep its policy rate unchanged at 4.25% at the 23 Apr meeting.""Reflecting the sharper-than-expected increase in Mar inflation and the prolonged disruptions stemming from the Middle East conflict, we now raise our full-year 2026 inflation forecast to 5.5% (from 3.0% previously; BSP est: 5.1%; 2025: 1.7%). Year-ago low base effects and an expected continued weakness in the PHP are likely to further amplify inflationary pressures.""In the near term, non-monetary interventions by the national government—particularly to contain prices of essential food items, electricity, and public transport—will be critical to keeping inflation in check. Beyond declaring a national energy emergency and rolling out a series of mitigation measures in recent weeks, the government is also considering a temporary suspension of fuel excise taxes, a review of airport-related charges, and the diversification of oil supply sources."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
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