ไทม์ไลน์ข่าวสาร forex
17:06 US ISM Services PMI held steady at 53.8 in January
Economic activity in the US service sector remained unchanged in January, with the ISM Services PMI holding steady at 53.8. The print, however, came in above analysts' expectations of 53.5.
ISM Services PMI matches the previous print at 53.8 in January.The US Dollar keeps its slightly bullish stance on Wednesday.Economic activity in the US service sector remained unchanged in January, with the ISM Services PMI holding steady at 53.8. The print, however, came in above analysts' expectations of 53.5. Further poll results found that the Prices Paid Index, a crucial barometer of inflation, ticked higher to 66.6 from 65.1 (revised from 64.3), while the Employment Index receded to 50.3 from 51.7 (revised from 52.0), indicating a humble pullback in labour market conditions in the service sector. Finally, the New Orders Index weakened to 53.1 from 56.5 (revised from 57.9).Market reactionThe Greenback remains slightly bid following the release, as investors continue to digest the latest ADP report. That said, the US Dollar Index (DXY) reverses Tuesday’s losses and revisits the 97.50 region, maintaining the weekly recovery well in place.
17:00 United States ISM Services PMI came in at 53.8, above expectations (53.5) in January
United States ISM Services PMI came in at 53.8, above expectations (53.5) in January
17:00 United States ISM Services Prices Paid increased to 66.6 in January from previous 64.3
United States ISM Services Prices Paid increased to 66.6 in January from previous 64.3
17:00 United States ISM Services New Orders Index fell from previous 57.9 to 53.1 in January
United States ISM Services New Orders Index fell from previous 57.9 to 53.1 in January
17:00 United States ISM Services Employment Index came in at 50.3, below expectations (52.3) in January
United States ISM Services Employment Index came in at 50.3, below expectations (52.3) in January
16:52 USD: Potential for retracement – BBH
The report from Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH) indicates that the USD is trading firmly against most major currencies, with Treasury yields ticking up. In the near term, the USD has room to retrace some of its recent losses as the Fed is not in a rush to ease policy.
The report from Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH) indicates that the USD is trading firmly against most major currencies, with Treasury yields ticking up. In the near term, the USD has room to retrace some of its recent losses as the Fed is not in a rush to ease policy. However, a USD bounce is viewed as a sell-the-rally opportunity due to ongoing structural drags on the currency.USD shows signs of short-term recovery"In the near-term, USD has room to retrace some of its recent losses because the Fed is in no rush to resume easing and risk cutting rates less than is currently priced in (50bps by year-end). However, a USD bounce would be a sell-the-rally opportunity.""The Fed still has more easing in the pipeline while most other major central banks are done cutting or started to raise rates (RBA). USD also faces important structural drags - fading confidence in US trade and security policy, politicization of the Fed, and worsening US fiscal credibility."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
16:45 United States S&P Global Composite PMI came in at 53, above forecasts (52.8) in January
United States S&P Global Composite PMI came in at 53, above forecasts (52.8) in January
16:45 United States S&P Global Services PMI above forecasts (52.5) in January: Actual (52.7)
United States S&P Global Services PMI above forecasts (52.5) in January: Actual (52.7)
16:27 EUR: Softens ahead of ECB policy decision – Scotiabank
The EUR is slightly down against the USD, showing signs of consolidation as it approaches the ECB's policy decision. Recent economic data, including services PMI and CPI, have aligned with expectations, providing little impetus for ECB policymakers.
The EUR is slightly down against the USD, showing signs of consolidation as it approaches the ECB's policy decision. Recent economic data, including services PMI and CPI, have aligned with expectations, providing little impetus for ECB policymakers. The market anticipates a hold on policy changes, reflecting a neutral communication stance from the ECB, note Scotiabank's Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret.EUR consolidates ahead of ECB meeting"This week’s price action is suggestive of consolidation, with congestion around 1.18 ahead of Thursday’s ECB policy decision.""The euro area’s final services PMI’s softened slightly (in low expansion), and the latest (preliminary) CPI data were in line with expectations, printing 1.7% y/y on headline and 2.2% y/y on core and offering little for ECB policymakers ahead of the Feb 5 meeting."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
16:01 ECB can continue to stand still – Nordea
Inflation in the Euro-area has decreased to 1.7% y/y in January, while core inflation remains stable at 2.2%. ECB is expected to maintain its current policy stance due to the calm inflation outlook, despite some uncertainty from volatile energy prices.
Inflation in the Euro-area has decreased to 1.7% y/y in January, while core inflation remains stable at 2.2%. ECB is expected to maintain its current policy stance due to the calm inflation outlook, despite some uncertainty from volatile energy prices. Nordea's report, authored by Tuuli Koivu and Anders Svendsen, suggests inflation will stay below 2% for most of 2026, with potential rate hikes not anticipated until the second half of 2027.Inflation trends and ECB policy outlook"Inflation declined more clearly below the target to 1.7% y/y in January. However, core inflation slowed only slightly to 2.2%, and broad price pressures are still anchored around the ECB’s target, allowing the central bank to continue standing still.""We expect inflation to stay below 2% for most of 2026 and to return to the ECB’s target permanently only in the latter part of the year but there is certainly a lot of uncertainty related to the exact profile of the headline inflation given e.g. the recently volatile food and energy prices.""This profile, however, together with robust core inflation numbers and the expected gradual acceleration in GDP growth, implies that the ECB is in no hurry to change policy rates in either direction."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
15:50 USD/CHF trades flat as US labor data disappoints, SNB remains vigilant
USD/CHF trades without a clear trend around 0.7750 on Wednesday at the time of writing, showing an almost unchanged performance on the day. The pair remains trapped in a narrow range as the US Dollar (USD) struggles to find a clear catalyst following the release of mixed US macroeconomic data.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}The US Dollar lacks direction after a sharp disappointment in US private employment.Investors digest weaker US data ahead of the next key economic releases.The Swiss National Bank remains cautious about risks to price stability.USD/CHF trades without a clear trend around 0.7750 on Wednesday at the time of writing, showing an almost unchanged performance on the day. The pair remains trapped in a narrow range as the US Dollar (USD) struggles to find a clear catalyst following the release of mixed US macroeconomic data.The release of the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Employment Change report showed that US private sector payrolls rose by only 22,000 jobs in January, well below market expectations of 48,000. This reading confirms a gradual slowdown in US labor market momentum, even though annual wage growth remains steady at 4.5%.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Dollar’s performance against a basket of six major currencies, trades without a clear direction as investors reassess their expectations for monetary policy. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets continue to expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to leave interest rates unchanged at the March meeting, within the 3.50%-3.75% range, but weaker employment data may revive debate about the future policy outlook.On the Swiss side, the Swiss Franc (CHF) shows mixed performance. Investors remain focused on the outlook for the Swiss National Bank (SNB) in an environment of still subdued inflation. Earlier this week, SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel reiterated that price stability remains the central bank’s main concern, stressing its determination to act if necessary to contain inflation risks.Attention now turns to the release of the S&P Global Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Services PMI later in the day, which could provide further direction to the US Dollar and the USD/CHF pair. US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.05% -0.12% 0.58% 0.11% -0.07% 0.47% 0.08% EUR -0.05% -0.17% 0.54% 0.07% -0.12% 0.42% 0.03% GBP 0.12% 0.17% 0.71% 0.23% 0.05% 0.60% 0.20% JPY -0.58% -0.54% -0.71% -0.46% -0.64% -0.11% -0.49% CAD -0.11% -0.07% -0.23% 0.46% -0.19% 0.36% -0.03% AUD 0.07% 0.12% -0.05% 0.64% 0.19% 0.55% 0.15% NZD -0.47% -0.42% -0.60% 0.11% -0.36% -0.55% -0.39% CHF -0.08% -0.03% -0.20% 0.49% 0.03% -0.15% 0.39% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
15:42 S&P500: Market resilience continues – Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank Research Team highlights a recurring market pattern in 2026 characterized by sharp sell-offs followed by rapid recoveries. Despite various causes for these sell-offs, they have not resulted in lasting damage, with the S&P 500 showing resilience.
Deutsche Bank Research Team highlights a recurring market pattern in 2026 characterized by sharp sell-offs followed by rapid recoveries. Despite various causes for these sell-offs, they have not resulted in lasting damage, with the S&P 500 showing resilience. The report emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between headline noise and a strong macroeconomic backdrop, noting that significant downturns typically align with negative macro outlooks, which are not currently evident.2026 market patterns and resilience"2026 is only a few weeks old, but there’s been a repeated market pattern of sharp sell-offs that quickly recover, sometimes within hours.""Although these have had a variety of causes, the consistent theme is they fail to inflict lasting damage, despite initial fears that it might finally be the start of a larger sell-off.""Clearly, we’ve seen large sectoral moves, particularly in the software space, but the aggregate indices have been fairly steady overall.""But it’s important for investors to separate headline noise from an otherwise robust macroeconomic backdrop.""When we’ve historically seen more durable market downturns, it’s consistently coincided with a fundamentally negative reassessment in the macro outlook, which we haven’t yet seen today in any meaningful sense."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
15:15 United States ADP Employment Change came in at 22K, below expectations (48K) in January
United States ADP Employment Change came in at 22K, below expectations (48K) in January
15:14 GBP/USD: Outlook remains cautious – TD Securities
TD Securities analysts anticipate that the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee will maintain the Bank Rate at 3.75% with a 6-3 vote. The report highlights that the trajectory of inflation and the voting dynamics will be crucial for market movements.
TD Securities analysts anticipate that the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee will maintain the Bank Rate at 3.75% with a 6-3 vote. The report highlights that the trajectory of inflation and the voting dynamics will be crucial for market movements. There is a preference for long positions in MPC contracts, and while GBP is favored against the USD, there is a bearish outlook against the EUR.Market focus on inflation trajectory"We expect the MPC to hold Bank Rate at 3.75%, with a 6-3 vote. Guidance will likely continue to lean on slack building in the economy but highlight the tight margin of votes we should keep seeing in future easing decisions.""Rates: The key focus for markets will remain the trajectory of inflation as well as the skew of votes/opinions. We continue to favor longs in MPC contracts.""FX: Q1 tends to be strong for US data seasonality, and we can see some USD bounce back vs the GBP. Structurally, we like GBP upside vs the USD but downside vs the EUR."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
15:00 Gold: Record outflows from ETFs – BNY
BNY's report, authored by Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage, discusses significant outflows from China's gold ETFs, totaling nearly $1 billion, following a sharp decline in gold prices. This trend reflects fragile investor sentiment after a recent peak in gold prices.
BNY's report, authored by Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage, discusses significant outflows from China's gold ETFs, totaling nearly $1 billion, following a sharp decline in gold prices. This trend reflects fragile investor sentiment after a recent peak in gold prices. Despite a recovery in prices, the report warns that the outflows indicate ongoing concerns among investors.Gold ETF outflows"China’s gold ETFs suffered record daily outflows on Tuesday, with nearly $1bn pulled from the country’s largest bullion-backed funds as a sharp drop in gold prices rattled investor confidence.""The abrupt reversal followed gold’s pullback from an all-time high and its steepest single-day decline since 2013 during Asian trading on Friday, validating concerns that the rally had become overstretched.""Although bullion recovered more than 6% on Tuesday as dip buyers returned, the scale of ETF outflows highlights how fragile sentiment remains."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
14:42 NZD/USD: Improving labor market conditions – BBH
The report from Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH) highlights that NZD/USD is trading heavy around 0.6000, with New Zealand's Q4 labor market data showing an improving job market. Employment increased more than expected, although the unemployment rate rose slightly.
The report from Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH) highlights that NZD/USD is trading heavy around 0.6000, with New Zealand's Q4 labor market data showing an improving job market. Employment increased more than expected, although the unemployment rate rose slightly. The RBNZ's outlook on rate hikes has been adjusted lower, reflecting ongoing spare capacity in the economy.New Zealand labor market shows improvement"New Zealand Q4 labor market data showed an improving job market and contained wage pressures.""The unemployment rate unexpectedly increased 0.1pts to 5.4% (consensus & RBNZ forecast: 5.3%), the highest since Q3 2015. But it was for good reasons as more people entered the labor force.""There’s still significant spare capacity in the New Zealand economy, with the output gap projected to average -1.1% of potential GDP over 2026 vs. -1.6% in 2025."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
14:32 USD/JPY approaches 157.00 as Yen struggles ahead of the elections
The Japanese Yen (JPY) became the worst-performing currency of the G8 on Wednesday.
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Investors are selling the Yen across the board heading into this weekend’s snap elections. Prime Minister Takaichi’s increasing popularity has triggered concerns that she will come from the polls with a stronger parliamentary support to extend her tax cut and large stimulus program, leading to a fiscal crisis.Markets shrug off intervention fearsTokyo authorities have warned about a potential intervention to stem excessive Yen volatility, but Takaichi’s comments praising the benefits of a soft Yen and the US Treasury Secretary’s denial of a coordinated plan to support JPY stability have sent the Yen tumbling across the board.
The Greenback, however, is not particularly strong on Wednesday. Investors are still celebrating the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chairman, and the end of a two-day partial government shutdown has provided additional support to the US Dollar Index (DXY), but the last few days’ rally seems to have stalled.Traders are awaiting the release of US Services activity data, due later on Wednesday, and the ADP Employment Change report. Private-sector jobs are expected to show a moderate improvement. ADP data may be particularly relevant, as the government shutdown has delayed Friday’s US Nonfarm payrolls report. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
Investors are selling the Yen across the board heading into this weekend’s snap elections. Prime Minister Takaichi’s increasing popularity has triggered concerns that she will come from the polls with a stronger parliamentary support to extend her tax cut and large stimulus program, leading to a fiscal crisis.Markets shrug off intervention fearsTokyo authorities have warned about a potential intervention to stem excessive Yen volatility, but Takaichi’s comments praising the benefits of a soft Yen and the US Treasury Secretary’s denial of a coordinated plan to support JPY stability have sent the Yen tumbling across the board.
The Greenback, however, is not particularly strong on Wednesday. Investors are still celebrating the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chairman, and the end of a two-day partial government shutdown has provided additional support to the US Dollar Index (DXY), but the last few days’ rally seems to have stalled.Traders are awaiting the release of US Services activity data, due later on Wednesday, and the ADP Employment Change report. Private-sector jobs are expected to show a moderate improvement. ADP data may be particularly relevant, as the government shutdown has delayed Friday’s US Nonfarm payrolls report. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
14:20 USD: Employment data expected to miss – TD Securities
TD Securities' Global Strategy Team provides insights on upcoming US employment data, predicting below-consensus estimates for both ADP employment and ISM services. The report highlights a potential modest bull steepening on ADP as markets await the delayed NFP report.
TD Securities' Global Strategy Team provides insights on upcoming US employment data, predicting below-consensus estimates for both ADP employment and ISM services. The report highlights a potential modest bull steepening on ADP as markets await the delayed NFP report. The analysis indicates a mean-reversion in ISM services, with expectations for a decline in employment and new orders.US employment data outlook"On Wednesday, Treasury's quarterly refunding will be in the morning where we expect auction sizes to remain unchanged. The market will be focused on forward guidance for any changes which currently flags that auction sizes are set to remain unchanged for the 'next several quarters'.""We expect ISM services moved lower to 52.8 from 53.8 previously (consensus: 53.5). The decline is likely to be a mean-reversion after December's upside surprise.""We look for declines in employment and new orders to be the main drivers in the release."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
14:10 Gold: Sentiment stabilizing after sell-off – OCBC Bank
The report from OCBC Bank, authored by Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong, notes that Gold and Silver have rebounded due to dip-buying interest as liquidation pressures eased. However, sentiment remains cautious, and the report anticipates consolidation rather than a trend reversal.
The report from OCBC Bank, authored by Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong, notes that Gold and Silver have rebounded due to dip-buying interest as liquidation pressures eased. However, sentiment remains cautious, and the report anticipates consolidation rather than a trend reversal. The year-end forecasts for Gold and Silver remain at USD5,600/oz and USD133/oz respectively.Gold and silver rebound on dip-buying"The rebound suggests that forced selling and margin-related liquidation pressures may have faded, at least for now.""While positioning has likely reset to some extent, confidence may not have fully restored, pointing to a potential period of choppier, two-way trading.""We stick to our year-end forecasts for gold and silver at USD5,600/oz and USD133/oz respectively."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
14:00 United States MBA Mortgage Applications fell from previous -8.5% to -8.9% in January 30
United States MBA Mortgage Applications fell from previous -8.5% to -8.9% in January 30
13:50 EUR/GBP declines as mixed Eurozone data contrasts with BoE policy stability
EUR/GBP eases toward 0.8610 on Wednesday, with the cross pressured by the Euro’s (EUR) relative weakness against a Pound Sterling (GBP) supported by monetary policy expectations in the United Kingdom (UK).
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}EUR/GBP trades around 0.8610, down about 0.20% on Wednesday.Mixed macroeconomic data in the Eurozone limit the Euro’s fundamental appeal.The Pound Sterling is supported by expectations of a Bank of England policy hold.EUR/GBP eases toward 0.8610 on Wednesday, with the cross pressured by the Euro’s (EUR) relative weakness against a Pound Sterling (GBP) supported by monetary policy expectations in the United Kingdom (UK). The latest macroeconomic indicators from the Eurozone send mixed signals and reinforce the view of a fragile economic recovery, limiting the upside potential of the single currency.In the Eurozone, the HCOB Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) came in at 51.6 in January, a four-month low, below market expectations and sharply down from December. In Germany, the downward revision of the HCOB Services PMI to 52.4 confirms that activity in the region’s largest economy remains subdued. These figures highlight the fragility of the economic momentum and weigh on the fundamental appeal of the Euro.On the inflation front, price pressures continue to ease. The Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose by 1.7% YoY in January, in line with expectations but down from 1.9% in December, while core inflation remained steady at 2.3%. According to TD Securities, this disinflation is largely driven by energy prices and is unlikely to alter the European Central Bank (ECB) stance in the near term, as this move has been widely anticipated by policymakers.The ECB is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its monetary policy announcement scheduled for Thursday.On the UK side, the Pound Sterling is supported by expectations ahead of the upcoming Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy decision, also scheduled for Thursday. Investors expect the central bank to leave its key interest rate unchanged at 3.75%, following a 25-basis-point cut in December. Markets also anticipate guidance reaffirming a gradual path of monetary easing.Investors will also focus on the Bank of England’s quarterly Monetary Policy Report, which will offer updated insights into inflation expectations over the next two years and the current state of the UK economy.UK activity data remain broadly supportive. The S&P Global UK Services PMI was revised to 54 in January, slightly below the preliminary estimate of 54.3 but sharply higher than December’s 51.4, marking its highest level since August. This improvement in services sector activity provides short-term support to the Pound Sterling. Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.09% -0.07% 0.69% 0.21% 0.05% 0.59% 0.16% EUR -0.09% -0.16% 0.61% 0.12% -0.04% 0.51% 0.07% GBP 0.07% 0.16% 0.75% 0.27% 0.12% 0.66% 0.23% JPY -0.69% -0.61% -0.75% -0.46% -0.62% -0.09% -0.51% CAD -0.21% -0.12% -0.27% 0.46% -0.16% 0.37% -0.05% AUD -0.05% 0.04% -0.12% 0.62% 0.16% 0.54% 0.11% NZD -0.59% -0.51% -0.66% 0.09% -0.37% -0.54% -0.43% CHF -0.16% -0.07% -0.23% 0.51% 0.05% -0.11% 0.43% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
13:45 GBP: Extending rebound ahead of BoE policy meeting – MUFG
The Pound has continued to strengthen ahead of the Bank of England's policy meeting. EUR/GBP has broken below support from the 200-day moving average at around 0.8650.
The Pound has continued to strengthen ahead of the Bank of England's policy meeting. EUR/GBP has broken below support from the 200-day moving average at around 0.8650. This strengthening is attributed to reduced UK fiscal and political risks and signs of growth momentum in the UK, notes Lee Hardman, MUFG Senior Currency Analyst.Pound strengthens before BoE meeting"The pound has continued to strengthen at the start of this week ahead of tomorrow’s BoE policy meeting.""Stronger growth momentum has encouraged market participants to push back the timing of the next BoE rate cut.""We continue to expect the BoE to lower rates further this year but recently pushed back our forecast for the timing of the next BoE rate cut from March to April."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
13:39 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD holds above $5,000 with US employment in focus
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading higher for the second consecutive day on Wednesday, standing above the $5,000 psychological level, trading at $ 5,050 at the time of writing, with markets calm ahead of the release of the US ADP Employment Change Report, due later on Wednesday.
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The immediate XAU/USD trend remains positive, and technical indicators endorse that view. Price action has returned above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is positive and expanding, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) prints 55, neutral with a slight bullish tilt.
Upside attempts have been capped ahead of a confluence of resistances, between the January 29 low, at the $5,100 area, and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of last week's sell-off, at $5,135. Further up, the next target is the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, at the $5,330 area. Immediate support is at the February 3 high of $4,990, and the mentioned 100-period SMA, now at $4,885, a confirmation below here, negates the immediate bullish outlook.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The immediate XAU/USD trend remains positive, and technical indicators endorse that view. Price action has returned above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is positive and expanding, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) prints 55, neutral with a slight bullish tilt.
Upside attempts have been capped ahead of a confluence of resistances, between the January 29 low, at the $5,100 area, and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of last week's sell-off, at $5,135. Further up, the next target is the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, at the $5,330 area. Immediate support is at the February 3 high of $4,990, and the mentioned 100-period SMA, now at $4,885, a confirmation below here, negates the immediate bullish outlook.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
13:36 When is the US ISM Services PMI data for January and how could it affect EUR/USD?
The United States (US) Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for January is scheduled to be published today at 15:00 GMT.
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The United States (US) Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for January is scheduled to be published today at 15:00 GMT.The ISM report is expected to show that the service sector activity expanded again, but at a moderate pace. The Services PMI is seen at 53.5, lower than 54.4 in December. Investors will pay close attention to the Services PMI data as the related sector accounts for two-thirds of the US economy.Apart from the Services PMI, investors will also focus on sub-components of data, such as Employment Index, New Orders Index, and Prices Paid. ISM Services Employment Index is expected to come in higher at 52.3 from the previous reading of 52.0.Weaker-than-projected US ISM Services PMI data would prompt expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the near term, as officials have remained concerned over the economic outlook. However, better figures would be a relief for Fed officials, but will unlikely act as a major drag on Fed dovish expectations due to weak job market conditions.How could US ISM Services PMI data affect EUR/USD?EUR/USD trades slightly lower at around 1.1809 at the time of writing. The major currency pair holds just above the rising 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.1794, keeping a modest upward bias intact.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 52.8 (neutral) reflects balanced momentum after recent consolidation.Measured from the 1.1578 low to the 1.2074 high, the 50% Fibonacci (Fibo) retracement at 1.1826 and the 61.8% Fibo retracement at 1.1768 define a nearby pivot band that supports pullbacks, keeping the broader recovery structure in focus.A clear push back above the 50% retracement at 1.1826 would re-open topside scope and put the recovery back on track. Looking up, the round level of 1.1900 would be an initial hurdle on the way up.On the downside, failure to hold the 61.8% Fibo retracement at 1.1768 would signal fading momentum and expose a deeper correction towards 78.6% Fibo retracement at 1.1684. Until either trigger gives way, rangebound trade around the mid-1.18s could persist.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Economic Indicator ISM Services PMI The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the US services sector, which makes up most of the economy. The indicator is obtained from a survey of supply executives across the US based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the services economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the US Dollar (USD). A reading below 50 signals that services sector activity is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for USD. Read more. Next release: Wed Feb 04, 2026 15:00 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 53.5 Previous: 54.4 Source: Institute for Supply Management Why it matters to traders? The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) reveals the current conditions in the US service sector, which has historically been a large GDP contributor. A print above 50 shows expansion in the service sector’s economic activity. Stronger-than-expected readings usually help the USD gather strength against its rivals. In addition to the headline PMI, the Employment Index and the Prices Paid Index numbers are also watched closely by investors as they provide useful insights regarding the state of the labour market and inflation.
Looking up, the round level of 1.1900 would be an initial hurdle on the way up.
13:20 EUR: Inflation drops but ECB remains steady – TD Securities
TD Securities reports on Eurozone inflation, which has dropped to 1.7% year-on-year, primarily due to energy prices. The analysis indicates that this disinflationary trend is not expected to influence the ECB's upcoming meeting, as it has been anticipated.
TD Securities reports on Eurozone inflation, which has dropped to 1.7% year-on-year, primarily due to energy prices. The analysis indicates that this disinflationary trend is not expected to influence the ECB's upcoming meeting, as it has been anticipated. The core inflation measure also slowed, suggesting a broader easing in price pressures.Eurozone inflation insights"Euro area inflation dropped as expected to 1.7% y/y on headline measure.""As we discussed previously, the biggest contributor to this disinflationary pace was energy at -4.1% y/y, predominantly on the back of base effects.""This will not move the ECB off its perch at their meeting on Thursday, nor should it feature in the statement given that this move has been anticipated and explained in the past."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
13:11 AUD/USD trades subduedly near 0.7020 ahead of US employment, PMI data
The AUD/USD pair trades marginally lower around 0.7020 during the European trading session on Wednesday. The Aussie pair ticks down as the US Dollar (USD) trades higher ahead of the key United States (US) economic data releases in the North American session.
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The Aussie pair ticks down as the US Dollar (USD) trades higher ahead of the key United States (US) economic data releases in the North American session.At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is up 0.2% to near 97.55.In Wednesday’s session, investors will pay close attention to the US ADP Employment Change and the ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for January.The ADP is expected to report that the private sector created 48K fresh jobs, higher than 41K in December. The impact of the private sector job market data is expected to be significant on market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook, as the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data is unlikely to be released this week due to the partial government shutdown. However, the US federal government has reopened after the House cleared a bill to fund federal agencies on Tuesday.Currently trades seem confident that the Fed will not cut interest rates in the March and April monetary policy meetings, according to the CME FedWatch tool.The ISM Services PMI is seen lower at 53.5 from 54.4 in December, indicating that the service sector activity advanced again, but at a moderate pace.Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar (AUD) trades broadly firm as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has kept the door open for further interest rate hikes even after raising them by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.85% on Tuesday. Economic Indicator ADP Employment Change The ADP Employment Change is a gauge of employment in the private sector released by the largest payroll processor in the US, Automatic Data Processing Inc. It measures the change in the number of people privately employed in the US. Generally speaking, a rise in the indicator has positive implications for consumer spending and is stimulative of economic growth. So a high reading is traditionally seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Wed Feb 04, 2026 13:15 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 48K Previous: 41K Source: ADP Research Institute Why it matters to traders? Traders often consider employment figures from ADP, America’s largest payrolls provider, report as the harbinger of the Bureau of Labor Statistics release on Nonfarm Payrolls (usually published two days later), because of the correlation between the two. The overlaying of both series is quite high, but on individual months, the discrepancy can be substantial. Another reason FX traders follow this report is the same as with the NFP – a persistent vigorous growth in employment figures increases inflationary pressures, and with it, the likelihood that the Fed will raise interest rates. Actual figures beating consensus tend to be USD bullish.
13:05 EUR/JPY advances as Japanese Yen falters on fiscal, political instability
EUR/JPY trades around 185.10 on Wednesday at the time of writing, up 0.55% on the day and reclaiming the 185 level.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}EUR/JPY trades higher, supported by Japanese Yen weakness linked to fiscal and political concerns in Japan.Eurozone activity indicators disappoint, with the services sector slowing more than expected in January.Cooling inflation and a cautious European Central Bank limit the Euro’s upside potential.EUR/JPY trades around 185.10 on Wednesday at the time of writing, up 0.55% on the day and reclaiming the 185 level. The cross is mainly supported by the persistent underperformance of the Japanese Yen (JPY), as investors remain concerned about Japan’s fiscal outlook and political uncertainty ahead of the snap lower house election.The Japanese Yen remains under pressure ahead of this weekend’s election. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party is expected to strengthen its majority, backed by a platform focused on higher public spending, tax cuts and a new security strategy. This expansionary fiscal stance has revived concerns over the sustainability of Japan’s public debt.The Prime Minister’s remarks, initially interpreted as favoring a weaker JPY to support exports, reinforced the perception of official tolerance for a softer currency, even though she later clarified her comments. Fears of coordinated Japan-US intervention and the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) slightly more hawkish tilt are, however, limiting a sharper depreciation of the Japanese currency.In the Eurozone, the latest macroeconomic data send mixed signals. The Eurozone HCOB Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) came in at 51.6 in January, a four-month low, below market expectations and down sharply from December. In Germany, the downward revision of the HCOB Services PMI to 52.4 confirms that activity in the region’s largest economy remains sluggish. These figures highlight the fragility of the economic recovery and cap the Euro’s (EUR) fundamental appeal.On the inflation front, price pressures continue to ease. The Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose by 1.7% YoY in January, in line with expectations but down from 1.9% in December, while core inflation remained steady at 2.3%. This cooling inflation backdrop supports the case for a cautious monetary policy stance.According to Deutsche Bank, the European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to keep interest rates unchanged through 2026, with the next move potentially being a hike in 2027. "The path of monetary policy in 2026 will depend on who wins the contest between external conditions and internal conditions. Our baseline assumes that domestic resilience will dominate and that leads to hikes in 2027", noted the bank’s research team.In this environment, EUR/JPY dynamics are driven more by structural Japanese Yen weakness than by Euro strength. As long as political and fiscal uncertainties weigh on the Japanese currency, the cross may remain supported, despite still-fragile fundamentals in the Eurozone. Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.06% -0.14% 0.66% 0.19% 0.02% 0.56% 0.14% EUR -0.06% -0.20% 0.59% 0.12% -0.05% 0.49% 0.08% GBP 0.14% 0.20% 0.80% 0.33% 0.16% 0.69% 0.28% JPY -0.66% -0.59% -0.80% -0.45% -0.62% -0.10% -0.50% CAD -0.19% -0.12% -0.33% 0.45% -0.17% 0.36% -0.04% AUD -0.02% 0.05% -0.16% 0.62% 0.17% 0.54% 0.13% NZD -0.56% -0.49% -0.69% 0.10% -0.36% -0.54% -0.40% CHF -0.14% -0.08% -0.28% 0.50% 0.04% -0.13% 0.40% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
12:16 USD/CAD holds above 1.3625 with US ADP employment in focus
The US Dollar (USD) shows marginal gains against its Canadian counterpart on Wednesday, trading near 1.3650 at the moment of writing.
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In Canadá, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI released on Monday revealed that factory activity grew at its fastest pace in more than a year, offsetting the impact of the weak monthly Gross Domestic Product growth seen last week. Later in the week, a speech from the governor of the Bank of Canada, Tiff Macklem, on Thursday, and Canadian employment numbers, due on Friday, will set the Loonie’s near-term direction. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
In Canadá, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI released on Monday revealed that factory activity grew at its fastest pace in more than a year, offsetting the impact of the weak monthly Gross Domestic Product growth seen last week. Later in the week, a speech from the governor of the Bank of Canada, Tiff Macklem, on Thursday, and Canadian employment numbers, due on Friday, will set the Loonie’s near-term direction. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
12:01 Italy Consumer Price Index (MoM) in line with forecasts (0.4%) in January
Italy Consumer Price Index (MoM) in line with forecasts (0.4%) in January
12:01 Italy Consumer Price Index (YoY) meets forecasts (1%) in January
Italy Consumer Price Index (YoY) meets forecasts (1%) in January
12:01 Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM) in line with forecasts (-1%) in January
Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM) in line with forecasts (-1%) in January
12:01 Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY) above expectations (0.9%) in January: Actual (1%)
Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY) above expectations (0.9%) in January: Actual (1%)
12:00 Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) climbed from previous 0.2% to 2% in January
Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) climbed from previous 0.2% to 2% in January
12:00 Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) unchanged at 0.3% in January
Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) unchanged at 0.3% in January
12:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index (MoM) in line with expectations (-0.3%) in December
Eurozone Producer Price Index (MoM) in line with expectations (-0.3%) in December
12:00 Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) meets expectations (1.7%) in January
Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) meets expectations (1.7%) in January
12:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index (YoY) came in at -2.1%, above forecasts (-2.3%) in December
Eurozone Producer Price Index (YoY) came in at -2.1%, above forecasts (-2.3%) in December
11:59 Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) in line with forecasts (2.3%) in January
Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) in line with forecasts (2.3%) in January
11:59 30y Bund yield testing highest levels in 15 years – Commerzbank
Commerzbank Rates Strategist Hauke Siemßen notes that the 30y Bund yields are testing their highest levels in 15 years, with bearish steepening dynamics in the market. The analysis highlights strong demand for recent syndications, particularly the BTP orderbook, which was notably robust.
Commerzbank Rates Strategist Hauke Siemßen notes that the 30y Bund yields are testing their highest levels in 15 years, with bearish steepening dynamics in the market. The analysis highlights strong demand for recent syndications, particularly the BTP orderbook, which was notably robust. The report suggests that the market is well-prepared for upcoming auctions, indicating a cautious yet positive outlook.30y Bund yields under scrutiny"EGB yields are back at the highs with curves bear-steepening and 30y Bund yields testing the highest levels in 15 years.""Nonetheless, the BTP orderbook of €157bn was super strong, indicating that there is sufficient investor demand at these valuations.""While the bi-weekly SPGB and OAT auctions are still on the agenda tomorrow, markets are probably well-prepared for them and tenors only extend to 23y.""We suggest holding on to BTPs longs for the time being given the positive carry environment amid supportive risk sentiment.""Potential for further positive rating action after S&P attached a positive outlook to its BBB+ rating last week."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
11:46 EUR: ECB holds steady as risks loom – Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank Research Team analyzes the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy outlook, suggesting that the ECB is likely to remain on hold throughout 2026, with the next move expected to be a hike in mid-2027.
Deutsche Bank Research Team analyzes the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy outlook, suggesting that the ECB is likely to remain on hold throughout 2026, with the next move expected to be a hike in mid-2027. The report highlights risks of further easing due to potential undershooting of inflation targets and external challenges, including the appreciation of the Euro. The analysis emphasizes the need for significant macroeconomic shifts to prompt a rate cut.ECB policy outlook and risks"In our baseline we see the ECB on hold through 2026 and the next move being a hike in mid-2027. The risk in 2026 has always been skewed to further easing given the expected undershoot of the inflation target. Recent events, like the appreciation of the euro exchange rate, underline this risk.""The path of monetary policy in 2026 will depend on who wins the contest between external conditions and internal conditions. Our baseline assumes that domestic resilience will dominate and that leads to hikes in 2027.""For the ECB to cut rates again it needs to expect a sufficient deviation from the inflation target: a large enough and persistent enough undershoot of the 2% target. Headline inflation undershoots the target later in 2026 and into 2027 - less than and later than previously assumed."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
11:31 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $89.44 per troy ounce, up 5.20% from the $85.02 it cost on Tuesday.
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Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $89.44 per troy ounce, up 5.20% from the $85.02 it cost on Tuesday.Silver prices have increased by 25.83% since the beginning of the year.Unit measureSilver Price Today in USDTroy Ounce89.441 Gram2.88The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 56.62 on Wednesday, down from 58.16 on Tuesday. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global Composite PMI registered at 53.7, below expectations (53.9) in January
United Kingdom S&P Global Composite PMI registered at 53.7, below expectations (53.9) in January
11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global Services PMI came in at 54 below forecasts (54.3) in January
United Kingdom S&P Global Services PMI came in at 54 below forecasts (54.3) in January
11:29 USDJPY: Upcoming election may drive yields higher – TD Securities
TD Securities analysts Prashant Newnaha and Alex Loo discuss the implications of Japan's upcoming Lower House Election on fiscal policy and the USDJPY exchange rate.
TD Securities analysts Prashant Newnaha and Alex Loo discuss the implications of Japan's upcoming Lower House Election on fiscal policy and the USDJPY exchange rate. They expect that an absolute majority for PM Takaichi could lead to higher yields and a steepening curve, with inflation expectations potentially rising. This scenario is likely to push USDJPY higher as well.Election impact on USDJPY and yields"An absolute majority outcome should drive yields higher and the curve should steepen. To the extent this drives inflation expectations higher, USDJPY should track north as well.""We expect buyers to emerge on yield back-ups as 1) the BoJ is likely to step in to stabilise the long-end through bond buying operations and 2) several Japanese institutions (e.g., SMBC, Meiji Yasuda) have indicated that they would be JGB buyers this year.""All eyes are on the upcoming Lower House elections on Feb 8th. We are expecting PM Takaichi to secure an absolute majority. This outcome is likely to embolden her push for fiscal spending and markets are likely to drive JGB yields higher, lending a steepening bias, particularly to the 10y point."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
11:19 AUD/JPY hits fresh record highs above 110.00
AUD/JPY extends its winning streak for the third successive session, trading around 110.00 during the European hours on Wednesday.
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If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation. How do interest rates impact currencies? Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. How do interest rates influence the price of Gold? Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank.
If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold. What is the Fed Funds rate? The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure.
Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
11:04 NZD/USD hesitates below 0.6050 following mixed employment data
The New Zealand Dollar is practically flat against the US Dollar on Wednesday, trading at 0.6040 at the time of writing, after being rejected at 0.6063 on Tuesday. A string of mixed New Zealand employment figures has halted the pair’s recovery from weekly lows at 0.5990.
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A string of mixed New Zealand employment figures has halted the pair’s recovery from weekly lows at 0.5990.New Zealand’s economy created more jobs than expected in the last quarter of 2025. The Employment Change grew 0.5%, from a flat reading in the previous quarter, and almost twice as much as the 0.3% anticipated by market analysts. The impact of these figures, however, has been offset by the unexpected increase in the Unemployment Rate, which hit a decade-high of 5.4%, against the market consensus of a steady 5.3% reading. Beyond that, Labour costs eased against expectations, paving the path for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to keep its monetary policy unchanged for the foreseeable future.The US Dollar, on the other hand, remains steady, supported by the end of a two-day partial government shutdown, with investors still digesting the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman, which halted the US Dollar's sell-off last week.In the US economic calendar, the focus today is on the ADP Employment Change, which is particularly relevant as Friday’s key Nonfarm Payrolls report will be delayed due to the government shutdown. Net employment is expected to have accelerated to 48K in January from 41K in December, but it remains relatively low. Employment FAQs How do employment levels affect currencies? Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages. Why is wage growth important? The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy. How much do central banks care about employment? The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.
11:00 Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI registered at 51.3, below expectations (51.5) in January
Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI registered at 51.3, below expectations (51.5) in January
11:00 Eurozone HCOB Services PMI below expectations (51.9) in January: Actual (51.6)
Eurozone HCOB Services PMI below expectations (51.9) in January: Actual (51.6)
10:55 Germany HCOB Services PMI below forecasts (53.3) in January: Actual (52.4)
Germany HCOB Services PMI below forecasts (53.3) in January: Actual (52.4)
10:55 Germany HCOB Composite PMI registered at 52.1, below expectations (52.5) in January
Germany HCOB Composite PMI registered at 52.1, below expectations (52.5) in January
10:51 France HCOB Composite PMI came in at 49.1, above expectations (48.6) in January
France HCOB Composite PMI came in at 49.1, above expectations (48.6) in January
10:50 US Dollar Index holds near 97.50 as US shutdown delays key data
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, moves sideways after registering modest losses in the previous session and is trading around 97.40 during the European hours on Wednesday.
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Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
10:50 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD extends recovery to near $90.50 on renewed US-Iran tensions
Silver price (XAG/USD) recovers further on Wednesday, trades 6% higher to near $90.50 during the European trading session.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Silver recovers further to near $90.50 on renewed tensions between the US and Iran.Kevn Warsh’s nomination for the Fed’s new Chairman led to a sharp decline in the Silver price.The Fed is expected to leave interest rates steady in the next two policy meetings.Silver price (XAG/USD) recovers further on Wednesday, trades 6% higher to near $90.50 during the European trading session. The white metal strengthens as tensions between the United States (US) and Iran have renewed, following the drone attack by the Iranian military on Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea, according to a report from Reuters.Investors tend to shift to the safe-haven fleet in times of geopolitical tensions, a scenario that boosts the appeal of precious metals, such as Silver.The white metal has been trading higher from the previous day as it regained ground after crashing over 30% from its lifetime peak of $121.61. Silver price corrected vertically after United States (US) President Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh for the succession of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell.Investors took Warsh’s appointment as favorable for the US Dollar (USD), given his historical preference for a strong US Dollar in his prior term at the Fed.Technically, a higher US Dollar makes the Silver price an unfavorable risk-reward bet for investors.In Wednesday’s session, investors will focus on the US ADP Employment Change and the ISM Services PMI data for January, which will be published during North American trading hours. The data will influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook.According to the CME FedWatch tool, the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates in its policy meetings in March and April.Silver technical analysisXAG/USD trades higher to near $90.50 at the time of writing. The price holds below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), now at $91.66, underscoring a fresh bearish tilt as the average turns lower. The gauge's decline over recent sessions caps rebound attempts. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 50.76 (neutral) is edging higher from prior readings, signaling stabilizing momentum. A daily close back above the 20-day EMA would reduce downside pressure and open a recovery path towards the psychological level of $100.00. While, failure to reclaim the 20-day EMA would keep risks skewed lower as trend conditions soften. (The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
10:50 AUD: Rate hike adjustment signals strength – Rabobank
RaboResearch report authored by Jane Foley, Senior FX Strategist at Rabobank, discusses the recent 25 bps rate hike by the RBA and its implications for the Australian Dollar (AUD). The market reacted positively, pushing AUD/USD close to a three-year high.
RaboResearch report authored by Jane Foley, Senior FX Strategist at Rabobank, discusses the recent 25 bps rate hike by the RBA and its implications for the Australian Dollar (AUD). The market reacted positively, pushing AUD/USD close to a three-year high. However, Governor Bullock's comments suggest uncertainty about a tightening cycle. The report anticipates that the AUD/USD will perform well, with a revised forecast of AUD/USD0.72 over the next 12 months.Market reacts to RBA's rate hike"In the weeks ahead, the market will be carefully watching economic data to assess whether the Bank’s will move into an extended pause, or if it will prepare the market for further rate hikes later in the year.""We expect the AUD/USD to perform well this year on the back of a relatively strong set of economic fundamentals.""We have revised up our forecasts to AUD/USD0.72 on a 12-month view."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
10:50 France HCOB Services PMI above forecasts (47.9) in January: Actual (48.4)
France HCOB Services PMI above forecasts (47.9) in January: Actual (48.4)
10:45 Italy HCOB Services PMI came in at 52.9, above forecasts (51.5) in January
Italy HCOB Services PMI came in at 52.9, above forecasts (51.5) in January
10:43 Pound Sterling rises as markets broadly expect BoE to leave interest rates unchanged
The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades higher against its major currency peers on Wednesday as investors await the Bank of England’s monetary policy announcement on Thursday.
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The British currency gains on expectations that the BoE will leave interest rates unchanged at 3.75% in its first policy meeting of 2026.Market participants anticipate the United Kingdom (UK) central bank to hold borrowing rates steady after slashing them by 25 basis points (bps) in December, while guiding that the monetary policy will remain on a “gradual downward path". Out of the nine-member-led-Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), Swati Dhingra and Alan Taylor are expected to vote for an interest rate cut.In mid-January, Taylor said in a summit in Singapore that he sees inflation returning to the central bank’s 2% target in “mid-2026, more quickly than having to wait until 2027”, and projected that interest rates could “normalise to the neutral (level) sooner rather than later”.In the December policy meeting, officials also expressed confidence that “inflation will come closer to 2%” in the second quarter of 2026.Alongside the BoE’s interest rate decision, investors will focus on the quarterly Monetary Policy report that will show inflation expectations over the next two years and the current state of the economy.Daily Digest Market movers: Pound Sterling ticks up against US Dollar ahead of US dataThe Pound Sterling is up 0.2% to near 1.3725 against the US Dollar (USD), and flat around 0.8630 against the Euro (EUR) during European trading hours on Wednesday. The GBP/USD pair edges higher as the US Dollar trades subdued ahead of the release of the United States (US) ADP Employment Change and the ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for January during the North American trading session.At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades cautiously near 97.40.Investors will closely monitor the private-sector employment and the Services PMI data to get fresh cues on the state of the US economy and labor market, key factors for the Fed when setting interest rates. Economists expect US private employers to have added 48K workers, higher than 41K in December. The ISM Services PMI is expected to come in lower at 53.5 from the prior reading of 54.4, indicating that the service sector activity advanced again but at a moderate pace.Upbeat US private job market and ISM Services PMI data would force traders to pare bets supporting interest rate cuts by the Fed in the near term. On the contrary, soft numbers would boost these odds.According to the CME FedWatch tool, the Fed is expected to deliver its first interest rate cut in the June policy meeting after leaving them unchanged in the range of 3.50%-3.75% in March and April.Meanwhile, the US House has approved the funding to end the partial government shutdown on Tuesday. However, the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for January will not be published on Friday, as per the latest reports.Technical Analysis: GBP/USD resumes upside journey after correcting to near 1.3620GBP/USD trades higher at around 1.3712 at the time of writing. The pair holds above the rising 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3605, keeping the short-term trend pointed higher. The 20-day EMA has firmed over recent sessions, signaling increasing upside pressure.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 62 (positive) confirms bullish momentum without overbought conditions.Maintaining daily closes above the 20-day EMA at 1.3605 would preserve the upward bias and encourage follow-through towards reclaiming the four-year high of 1.3866. However, a decisive close back below that gauge would soften the tone and invite a deeper retracement towards the psychological level of 1.3500.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data.
Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
10:31 USD/JPY: Upward momentum regains – Societe Generale
Societe Generale reports on the recent movements in USD/JPY, highlighting a V-shaped rebound and the importance of key support and resistance levels. The analysis indicates that the currency pair is regaining upward momentum and is challenging the 50-DMA.
Societe Generale reports on the recent movements in USD/JPY, highlighting a V-shaped rebound and the importance of key support and resistance levels. The analysis indicates that the currency pair is regaining upward momentum and is challenging the 50-DMA. The report emphasizes the significance of defending the recent low for continued bullish sentiment.Key levels for USD/JPY"USD/JPY recently slipped towards the lower limit of a multi-month ascending channel near 152, triggering a V-shaped rebound. It has filled the recent downside gap and is now challenging the 50-DMA. This highlights upward momentum is regaining.""The next hurdles are located at November high of 157.40/157.90. Defence of the low achieved earlier this week at 154.50 would be crucial for persistence in bounce."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
10:26 EUR/USD nudges higher ahead of Eurozone services PMI, inflation data
The Euro (EUR) is trading moderately higher against the US Dollar (USD) for the second consecutive day on Wednesday.
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.fxs-event-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-event-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-event-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:12px}.fxs-event-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-event-module-header{color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px;margin:0;padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;padding-right:32px}.fxs-event-module-header label{cursor:pointer;display:block}.fxs-event-module-header label:after,.fxs-event-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:17.6px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:20.8px;margin:4px 0 0 0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD picks up to 1.1830, from weekly lows near 1.1775.The Euro shows a fragile recovery with Eurozone flash inflation and services activity data on tap.In the US, all eyes are on January's ADP Employment Change, due later on Wednesday. The Euro (EUR) is trading moderately higher against the US Dollar (USD) for the second consecutive day on Wednesday. The pair reaches levels right above 1.1830 at the time of writing, from weekly lows near 1.1775, with investors awaiting the release of the Eurozone HCOB Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and January's preliminary Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), before taking directional bets.Consumer prices in the Euro area are expected to remain steady below the European Central Bank's (ECB's) 2% target rate, which would pave the path for the bank to keep interest rates on hold on Thursday, as it is widely expected. There is, however, the risk of a cooler-than-expected inflation, which might feed speculation about further rate cuts, sending the EUR lower.The US Dollar, on the other hand, remains steady. US President Trump has signed a bill into law that ends a two-day government shutdown, easing markets, which are still celebrating the pick of Kevin Warsh as the replacement for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Warsh is a respected policymaker who is expected to be cautious with rate cuts and guarantee the central bank's autonomy.In the economic calendar, before the Eurozone inflation figures, the final Services PMI data will show the health of the sector and could impact Euro crosses. In the US, investors will analyze with particular interest the ADP Employment Change report, as the key Nonfarm Payrolls report will be delayed due to the recent government shutdown. Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.08% -0.13% 0.41% -0.02% -0.18% 0.19% -0.03% EUR 0.08% -0.05% 0.52% 0.06% -0.10% 0.28% 0.06% GBP 0.13% 0.05% 0.56% 0.10% -0.05% 0.32% 0.11% JPY -0.41% -0.52% -0.56% -0.43% -0.58% -0.22% -0.43% CAD 0.02% -0.06% -0.10% 0.43% -0.15% 0.21% 0.00% AUD 0.18% 0.10% 0.05% 0.58% 0.15% 0.38% 0.16% NZD -0.19% -0.28% -0.32% 0.22% -0.21% -0.38% -0.21% CHF 0.03% -0.06% -0.11% 0.43% -0.00% -0.16% 0.21% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Daily Digest market Movers: The Euro is going through a frail recoveryThe Euro has bounced up from lows but remains miles away from last week's highs, with investors awaiting Eurozone inflation figures for further insight into the direction of the ECB's monetary policy. January's preliminary HICP data is expected to show that price pressures eased further, to a 1.7% year-on-year growth, from 1.9% in December and 2.1% in November. The core HICP, more relevant from the monetary policy perspective, is seen growing steadily at a 2.3% yearly pace.At the same time, Eurozone Producer Price Index is expected to show higher deflationary pressures, featuring a 2.3% year-on-year contraction in December, following a 1.7% decline in November, and providing further evidence that a strong Euro is pushing inflation lower. Before that, the final Eurozone HCOB Services PMI is expected to confirm that the sector's activity slowed down to 51.9 in January, its worst performance in the last four months, from 52.4 in December.In the US, the focus will be on January's ADP private payrolls report, which will be the main employment data this week. Net job creation is expected to have increased to 48K last month from 41K in December, still at relatively low levels.Technical Analysis: EUR/USD must break above 1.1875 to confirm a trend shift
EUR/USD shows a moderate recovery from Monday's lows at 1.1775, with indicators on the 4-hour chart highlighting a fading bearish pressure. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line seems about to cross above the signal line, in what would be a bullish move, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reached levels right below the 50 line, which divides the bearish from the bullish area.Price action, however, remains trapped within Monday's trading range. Bulls would need to break the weekly top at the 1.1875 area to confirm the pair's recovery and aim for the resistance area between the January 29 high, at 1.1995, and the 1.2000 psychological level.
Immediate support is at the February 2 and 3 lows, in the mentioned 1.1775 area. Further down, bears might be attracted by the January 21 low, near 1.1660.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Economic Indicator HCOB Services PMI The Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB), is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the Eurozone services sector. As the services sector dominates a large part of the economy, the Services PMI is an important indicator gauging the state of overall economic conditions. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at private-sector companies from the services sector. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the services economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Euro (EUR). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity among services providers is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for EUR. Read more. Next release: Wed Feb 04, 2026 09:00 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 51.9 Previous: 51.9 Source: S&P Global Economic Indicator Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) measures changes in the prices of a representative basket of goods and services in the European Monetary Union. The HICP, released by Eurostat on a monthly basis, is harmonized because the same methodology is used across all member states and their contribution is weighted. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Euro (EUR), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Wed Feb 04, 2026 10:00 (Prel) Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 1.7% Previous: 1.9% Source: Eurostat
EUR/USD shows a moderate recovery from Monday's lows at 1.1775, with indicators on the 4-hour chart highlighting a fading bearish pressure. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line seems about to cross above the signal line, in what would be a bullish move, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reached levels right below the 50 line, which divides the bearish from the bullish area.Price action, however, remains trapped within Monday's trading range. Bulls would need to break the weekly top at the 1.1875 area to confirm the pair's recovery and aim for the resistance area between the January 29 high, at 1.1995, and the 1.2000 psychological level.
Immediate support is at the February 2 and 3 lows, in the mentioned 1.1775 area. Further down, bears might be attracted by the January 21 low, near 1.1660.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Economic Indicator HCOB Services PMI The Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB), is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the Eurozone services sector. As the services sector dominates a large part of the economy, the Services PMI is an important indicator gauging the state of overall economic conditions. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at private-sector companies from the services sector. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the services economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Euro (EUR). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity among services providers is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for EUR. Read more. Next release: Wed Feb 04, 2026 09:00 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 51.9 Previous: 51.9 Source: S&P Global Economic Indicator Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) measures changes in the prices of a representative basket of goods and services in the European Monetary Union. The HICP, released by Eurostat on a monthly basis, is harmonized because the same methodology is used across all member states and their contribution is weighted. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Euro (EUR), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Wed Feb 04, 2026 10:00 (Prel) Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 1.7% Previous: 1.9% Source: Eurostat
10:19 EUR/GBP Price Forecast: Euro languishes at five-month lows below 0.8630
The Euro remains practically flat, a few pips above a fresh five-month low, at 0.8620 against a stronger British Pound on Wednesday.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}EUR/GBP flatlines at five-month lows near 0.8625.Eurozone Services PMI and inflation data are unlikely to support the pair.The Euro has broken the neckline of a large bearish Head & Shoulders pattern.The Euro remains practically flat, a few pips above a fresh five-month low, at 0.8620 against a stronger British Pound on Wednesday. The pair has been trending lower since peaking at 0.8865 in mid-November, and extended losses this week, breaking below a key support area at 0.8645, with no sign of a reaction in sight.In the calendar on Wednesday, Eurozone inflation data is expected to confirm the deflationary pressure that prompted European Central Bank board Member Martin Kocher to raise the possibility of further rate cuts last week. Apart from that, the Services PMI is likely to confirm that the sector grew at its slowest pace of the last four months in January. Altogether, not the kind of data that would guarantee a steady Euro recovery.
The UK Global S&P Services PMI, by contrast, is expected to confirm that the sector’s activity accelerated to a 21-month high of 54.3 in January, from 51.4 in December.
Technical Analysis: EUR/GBP has broken the neckline of a large H&S pattern
EUR/GBP trades at 0.8627, after breaking the neckline of a large Head and Shoulders pattern, in the area of 0.8645, as can be best seen in the daily chart. This is a bearish sign that might confirm the end of the upward trend witnessed through most of 2025.Technical indicators in the daily chart suggest a growing bearish momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) slips below its signal just under the zero line, with a mildly expanding negative histogram. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits below the midline without signaling oversold, indicating bearish pressure.
Next supports are at the intraday low of 0.8423, and the August 15 low in the area of 0.8600. The H&S pattern's measured target is near the June 10 low, at the 0.8420 area. To the upside, the mentioned H&S neckline, at 0.8645, is likely to act as resistance now. A clear move above here cancels the bearish view and brings the January 27 high, at 0.8716, into focus.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Euro Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.10% -0.26% 0.95% 0.17% -1.25% -0.54% 0.45% EUR -0.10% -0.40% 0.87% 0.07% -1.36% -0.64% 0.35% GBP 0.26% 0.40% 1.16% 0.47% -0.96% -0.25% 0.75% JPY -0.95% -0.87% -1.16% -0.77% -2.21% -1.43% -0.76% CAD -0.17% -0.07% -0.47% 0.77% -1.40% -0.69% 0.28% AUD 1.25% 1.36% 0.96% 2.21% 1.40% 0.72% 1.73% NZD 0.54% 0.64% 0.25% 1.43% 0.69% -0.72% 1.00% CHF -0.45% -0.35% -0.75% 0.76% -0.28% -1.73% -1.00% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
The UK Global S&P Services PMI, by contrast, is expected to confirm that the sector’s activity accelerated to a 21-month high of 54.3 in January, from 51.4 in December.
Technical Analysis: EUR/GBP has broken the neckline of a large H&S pattern
EUR/GBP trades at 0.8627, after breaking the neckline of a large Head and Shoulders pattern, in the area of 0.8645, as can be best seen in the daily chart. This is a bearish sign that might confirm the end of the upward trend witnessed through most of 2025.Technical indicators in the daily chart suggest a growing bearish momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) slips below its signal just under the zero line, with a mildly expanding negative histogram. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits below the midline without signaling oversold, indicating bearish pressure.
Next supports are at the intraday low of 0.8423, and the August 15 low in the area of 0.8600. The H&S pattern's measured target is near the June 10 low, at the 0.8420 area. To the upside, the mentioned H&S neckline, at 0.8645, is likely to act as resistance now. A clear move above here cancels the bearish view and brings the January 27 high, at 0.8716, into focus.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Euro Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.10% -0.26% 0.95% 0.17% -1.25% -0.54% 0.45% EUR -0.10% -0.40% 0.87% 0.07% -1.36% -0.64% 0.35% GBP 0.26% 0.40% 1.16% 0.47% -0.96% -0.25% 0.75% JPY -0.95% -0.87% -1.16% -0.77% -2.21% -1.43% -0.76% CAD -0.17% -0.07% -0.47% 0.77% -1.40% -0.69% 0.28% AUD 1.25% 1.36% 0.96% 2.21% 1.40% 0.72% 1.73% NZD 0.54% 0.64% 0.25% 1.43% 0.69% -0.72% 1.00% CHF -0.45% -0.35% -0.75% 0.76% -0.28% -1.73% -1.00% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
10:16 When is the Eurozone Prelim HICP inflation and how could it affect EUR/USD?
Eurostat will publish the preliminary Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for January later on Wednesday at 10:00 GMT.
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The Eurozone Prelim HICP OverviewEurostat will publish the preliminary Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for January later on Wednesday at 10:00 GMT.Eurozone HICP inflation is expected to ease to 1.7% year-over-year (YoY) in January, from 1.9% in December. Meanwhile, the annual core inflation is anticipated to remain consistent at 2.3% in the reported month.The monthly Eurozone inflation and core inflation were at 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively, in December.How could the Eurozone Prelim HICP affect EUR/USD?The EUR/USD pair may remain steady if the HICP data come as expected. Traders are awaiting the European Central Bank’s (ECB) interest rate decision due on Thursday. The ECB is widely expected to leave key rates unchanged at its February policy meeting, extending the pause to a fifth consecutive meeting.Attention will turn to the ECB press conference for signals on the rate outlook. Swedbank economist Nerijus Maciulis said ECB President Christine Lagarde is likely to stress that the euro-area economy remains resilient, although risks stay elevated. He added that early 2026 has highlighted the fragility of trade deals and agreements.Later on Wednesday, traders will focus on the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Services PMI, expected to ease to 53.5 in January from 54.4 previously. Meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will not release the January employment report on Friday as scheduled due to the partial government shutdown that began last weekend.Technically, the EUR/USD pair extends its gains for the second successive session, trading around 1.1830 at the time of writing. Technical analysis of the daily chart indicates a bullish bias; the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 55 confirms strong momentum. Inflation FAQs What is inflation? Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%. What is the Consumer Price Index (CPI)? The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls. What is the impact of inflation on foreign exchange? Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money. How does inflation influence the price of Gold? Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it.
Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
10:15 Spain HCOB Services PMI below expectations (56.5) in January: Actual (53.5)
Spain HCOB Services PMI below expectations (56.5) in January: Actual (53.5)
10:11 ECB: Markets not expecting another Lagarde pivot for now – BNY
BNY's report discusses the current expectations in the fixed income markets, particularly regarding the European Central Bank's monetary policy.
BNY's report discusses the current expectations in the fixed income markets, particularly regarding the European Central Bank's monetary policy. With inflation figures in France nearing deflation, the report suggests that the ECB is unlikely to pivot towards easing in the near term, as labor markets remain tight across the Eurozone.ECB policy outlook"We believe the majority of the Governing Council will opt to wait until the March forecasts. Furthermore, the hawkish members of the Governing Council may also point to current behavior in yield curves, as there is little sign of flattening that would indicate concern over inflation trajectories.""Despite ongoing divergence in rate paths, there has been a general lean away from further easing among developed market central banks over the past cycle.""We continue to err on the downside of inflation risk, particularly if national governments take broader concerns over fiscal dominance seriously and this is coupled with the restraining impact of a strong EUR."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
09:51 Gold: Prices surge after slump – Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank's Macro Strategy report highlights a significant recovery in Gold prices, which posted their largest daily gain since 2008. Gold rose by 6.12% to $4,947/oz, with further increases noted overnight.
Deutsche Bank's Macro Strategy report highlights a significant recovery in Gold prices, which posted their largest daily gain since 2008. Gold rose by 6.12% to $4,947/oz, with further increases noted overnight. The report indicates that dip buyers are returning to the market following a substantial slump in precious metals.Gold prices show signs of recovery"In fact, gold prices (+6.12%) posted their biggest daily gain since 2008, moving up to $4,947/oz, whilst silver (+7.43 %) was back up to $85.16/oz.""Clearly they’re still a long way from the highs, but it was clear that dip buyers were coming back in after the biggest slump in decades.""And that trend has continued overnight, with gold (+2.72%) now back up to $5,081/oz."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
09:43 WTI slides toward $63.00 as US refiners struggle to absorb Venezuelan crude
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price declines after registering nearly 3% gains in the previous session, trading around $63.50 per barrel during the early European hours on Wednesday.
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Crude Oil prices struggle as United States (US) Gulf Coast refiners grapple with a sharp rise in Venezuelan crude shipments following last month’s flagship $2 billion supply agreement between Caracas and Washington.However, crude prices may extend gains from the previous session as geopolitical tensions resurface. The US reportedly downed an Iranian drone near the Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea, while armed boats approached a US-flagged vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, reviving supply-risk concerns.However, US President Donald Trump emphasized that diplomatic channels remain open, with the White House confirming that US–Iran talks are still scheduled for Friday. Meanwhile, regional power the United Arab Emirates (UAE) urged Iran and the US on Tuesday to use the resumption of nuclear talks this week to defuse the standoff, which has been marked by mutual threats of air strikes. Several OPEC members, including Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Iraq, export most of their crude through the Strait of Hormuz, primarily to Asian markets.Oil prices also gained support from American Petroleum Institute (API) data, which showed US crude inventories fell by 11.1 million barrels last week, the largest draw since June. Meanwhile, OPEC+ expects oil demand to gradually recover from March or April and will decide on March 1 whether to resume monthly output increases following a first-quarter pause. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
09:30 ADP Employment Report expected to highlight another month of modest hiring
The Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Research Institute will release its monthly report on private-sector job creation for January on Wednesday.
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.fxs-event-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-event-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-event-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:12px}.fxs-event-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-event-module-header{color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px;margin:0;padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;padding-right:32px}.fxs-event-module-header label{cursor:pointer;display:block}.fxs-event-module-header label:after,.fxs-event-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:17.6px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:20.8px;margin:4px 0 0 0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The US ADP Employment Change report is expected to show that job creation remains subdued.The ADP report is more important than usual as Nonfarm Payrolls data is delayed due to the partial US Government shutdown.Kevin Warsh’s appointment as the next Fed Chair and strong US economic data are boosting a US Dollar recovery. The Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Research Institute will release its monthly report on private-sector job creation for January on Wednesday. The so-called ADP Employment Change report is expected to show that the United States (US) economy added 48K new jobs, following the 41K new payrolls witnessed in December.These figures will be observed with particular interest this time, as the US Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) announced on Monday that the release of Friday’s key Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report will be delayed due to a partial US government shutdown. With the ADP report as the main reference for US employment this month, a significant deviation in the final figures might have a strong impact on the US Dollar (USD).Source: Automatic Data ProcessingADP Jobs Report will test the strength of the US economic recoveryJanuary’s ADP Employment Change report comes in a context of improving optimism about the US economic outlook. A string of positive macroeconomic releases, namely the Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report and strong manufacturing activity, coupled with sticky inflation levels, have prompted traders to dial down bets of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed), at least until June. This has boosted a recent US Dollar recovery, also triggered by investors’ relief after US President Trump confirmed that former Fed governor Kevin Warsh will replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair at the end of his term.The US economy showed a robust 4.4% anualized growth in the third quarter, according to the final GDP estimation released in January. Apart from that, factory activity expanded at its fastest pace in more than three years, according to January’s ISM Manufacturing PMI report, retail consumption bounced up strongly in November, and consumer sentiment data show a steady improvement over the last three months.Bearing this in mind and considering that consumer inflation remains steady at levels well above the Fed’s 2% target for price stability, employment figures will be the last piece in the puzzle to assess the US central bank’s near-term monetary policy path.January’s ADP report is expected to confirm that the labor market remains steady. Market consensus suggests that employment growth remains sluggish, but that employers are not firing either, or at least not to a large extent. This scenario cements the Fed’s stance of a cautious approach to rate cuts. Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic stated at a panel speech on Monday that the central bank is close to the neutral rate and that monetary policy should remain “mildly restrictive” to get inflation back to the target. Unless the ADP shows a severe setback, this view would apply to the vast majority of the central bank’s monetary policy committee.When will the ADP Report be released, and how could it affect the USD?ADP will release the US Employment Change report on Wednesday at 13:15 GMT, and it is expected to show that the private sector added 48K new jobs in January.The immediate US Dollar trend is positive. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the Greenback against six major currencies, appreciated 2% in the past week. Market’s relief following the appointment of former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chairman halted the US Dollar’s bleeding, while bright US economic data, a trade deal with India, and hopes that negotiations with Iran might de-escalate tensions in the Middle East, keep the Greenback supported.US Dollar Index
Guillermo Alcala, FX Analyst at FXStreet, highlights resistance levels in the 98.00 area and 98.48 as the main hurdles for USD bulls: “The US Dollar Index is on a bullish correction amid a broader bearish trend, and bulls need to breach resistance at a previous support area around 98.00 to confirm a larger recovery and expose the January 23 high, at 98.48, ahead of the 100.00 round level.On the downside, Alcalá sees the 97.05 level as key to maintain the immediate bullish recovery alive: “A bearish reaction below the 97.00 level would put the current recovery in question and increase pressure towards the January 28 close, at the 96.35 area. Employment FAQs How do employment levels affect currencies? Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages. Why is wage growth important? The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy. How much do central banks care about employment? The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation. Economic Indicator ADP Employment Change The ADP Employment Change is a gauge of employment in the private sector released by the largest payroll processor in the US, Automatic Data Processing Inc. It measures the change in the number of people privately employed in the US. Generally speaking, a rise in the indicator has positive implications for consumer spending and is stimulative of economic growth. So a high reading is traditionally seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Wed Feb 04, 2026 13:15 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 48K Previous: 41K Source: ADP Research Institute Why it matters to traders? Traders often consider employment figures from ADP, America’s largest payrolls provider, report as the harbinger of the Bureau of Labor Statistics release on Nonfarm Payrolls (usually published two days later), because of the correlation between the two. The overlaying of both series is quite high, but on individual months, the discrepancy can be substantial. Another reason FX traders follow this report is the same as with the NFP – a persistent vigorous growth in employment figures increases inflationary pressures, and with it, the likelihood that the Fed will raise interest rates. Actual figures beating consensus tend to be USD bullish.
Guillermo Alcala, FX Analyst at FXStreet, highlights resistance levels in the 98.00 area and 98.48 as the main hurdles for USD bulls: “The US Dollar Index is on a bullish correction amid a broader bearish trend, and bulls need to breach resistance at a previous support area around 98.00 to confirm a larger recovery and expose the January 23 high, at 98.48, ahead of the 100.00 round level.On the downside, Alcalá sees the 97.05 level as key to maintain the immediate bullish recovery alive: “A bearish reaction below the 97.00 level would put the current recovery in question and increase pressure towards the January 28 close, at the 96.35 area. Employment FAQs How do employment levels affect currencies? Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages. Why is wage growth important? The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy. How much do central banks care about employment? The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation. Economic Indicator ADP Employment Change The ADP Employment Change is a gauge of employment in the private sector released by the largest payroll processor in the US, Automatic Data Processing Inc. It measures the change in the number of people privately employed in the US. Generally speaking, a rise in the indicator has positive implications for consumer spending and is stimulative of economic growth. So a high reading is traditionally seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Wed Feb 04, 2026 13:15 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 48K Previous: 41K Source: ADP Research Institute Why it matters to traders? Traders often consider employment figures from ADP, America’s largest payrolls provider, report as the harbinger of the Bureau of Labor Statistics release on Nonfarm Payrolls (usually published two days later), because of the correlation between the two. The overlaying of both series is quite high, but on individual months, the discrepancy can be substantial. Another reason FX traders follow this report is the same as with the NFP – a persistent vigorous growth in employment figures increases inflationary pressures, and with it, the likelihood that the Fed will raise interest rates. Actual figures beating consensus tend to be USD bullish.
09:28 USD/CAD Price Forecast: Seems vulnerable below mid-1.3600s as traders await US data
The USD/CAD pair turns lower for the second straight day and trades below mid-1.3600s through the early European session on Wednesday, though the downtick lacks bearish conviction amid mixed cues.
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The US Dollar (USD) struggles to attract any buyers amid bets for more rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). However, softer Crude Oil prices undermine the commodity-linked Loonie and act as a tailwind for spot prices.From a technical perspective, this week's failure near the 1.3700 mark – the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the downfall in January – andthe subsequent slide favors the USD/CAD bears. Moreover, the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart trends modestly lower, with spot price hovering around it, which keeps a fragile near-term bias. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line remains below the Signal line and the histogram contracts in shallow negative territory near the zero line, suggesting fading bearish pressure.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 43, below the 50 midline, reinforcing a cautious tone without oversold conditions. In the meantime, the 38.2% Fibo. retracement level at 1.3651 acts as immediate resistance, and a decisive push above would open room toward 1.3704, or the 50% retracement, which should cap the recovery attempt. A rejection under this barrier would keep rebounds shallow and leave the focus on maintaining traction above the 200-period SMA to avoid renewed downside pressure.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)USD/CAD 1-hour chart Economic Indicator ADP Employment Change The ADP Employment Change is a gauge of employment in the private sector released by the largest payroll processor in the US, Automatic Data Processing Inc. It measures the change in the number of people privately employed in the US. Generally speaking, a rise in the indicator has positive implications for consumer spending and is stimulative of economic growth. So a high reading is traditionally seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Wed Feb 04, 2026 13:15 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 48K Previous: 41K Source: ADP Research Institute Why it matters to traders? Traders often consider employment figures from ADP, America’s largest payrolls provider, report as the harbinger of the Bureau of Labor Statistics release on Nonfarm Payrolls (usually published two days later), because of the correlation between the two. The overlaying of both series is quite high, but on individual months, the discrepancy can be substantial. Another reason FX traders follow this report is the same as with the NFP – a persistent vigorous growth in employment figures increases inflationary pressures, and with it, the likelihood that the Fed will raise interest rates. Actual figures beating consensus tend to be USD bullish.
09:24 USD: Market expectations and Fed Chair nomination – Rabobank
Rabobank's RaboResearch Team discusses the implications of Warsh's nomination as Fed Chair and the market's expectations regarding interest rate cuts. The report highlights that investors are pricing in less than two cuts by the end of 2026, with no full cut expected until July.
Rabobank's RaboResearch Team discusses the implications of Warsh's nomination as Fed Chair and the market's expectations regarding interest rate cuts. The report highlights that investors are pricing in less than two cuts by the end of 2026, with no full cut expected until July. The analysis suggests that the market may be overly firm in its expectations of Warsh’s hawkishness.Market expectations for interest rates"OIS curve‑implied pricing suggests that investors are pricing in less than two cuts by 2026 year‑end, and aren’t even pricing one full cut into the market until July.""It’s unlike Trump—someone who has made his thoughts on monetary policy abundantly clear—to appoint someone as Fed Chair that he either fundamentally or practically disagrees with.""Whether Warsh is in favor of one, two, three, or perhaps even no rate cuts this year, the path of cuts is arguably of less importance than the metaphorical sledgehammer he may wield upon the very structure of the Fed."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
09:14 Forex Today: Market focus shifts to Eurozone inflation and key US data
Here is what you need to know on Thursday, February 4:
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Here is what you need to know on Thursday, February 4:Major currency pairs stay relatively quiet early Wednesday as investors gear up for key macroeconomic data releases. The Eurostat will publish January inflation figures later in the session and the US economic calendar will feature private sector employment report and the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data.The US House passed a package on Tuesday to end the partial government shutdown that started on Saturday. Markets largely ignored this development and major equity indexes in the US ended the day deep in negative territory, while the US Dollar (USD) Index registered marginal daily losses. In the European morning on Wednesday, the USD Index moves sideways below 97.50, while US stock index futures rise between 0.2% and 0.3%. US Dollar Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.15% -0.14% 0.92% 0.20% -1.14% -0.50% 0.42% EUR -0.15% -0.34% 0.80% 0.04% -1.30% -0.65% 0.26% GBP 0.14% 0.34% 1.01% 0.38% -0.97% -0.32% 0.60% JPY -0.92% -0.80% -1.01% -0.70% -2.06% -1.35% -0.76% CAD -0.20% -0.04% -0.38% 0.70% -1.32% -0.68% 0.22% AUD 1.14% 1.30% 0.97% 2.06% 1.32% 0.66% 1.58% NZD 0.50% 0.65% 0.32% 1.35% 0.68% -0.66% 0.92% CHF -0.42% -0.26% -0.60% 0.76% -0.22% -1.58% -0.92% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The data from New Zealand showed that the Unemployment Rate edged higher to 5.4% in the fourth quarter from 5.3%. After rising nearly 0.8% on Tuesday, NZD/USD stays in a consolidation phase at around 0.6050 in the European morning on Wednesday.AUD/USD holds its ground and trades in positive territory above 0.7000 after rising more than 1% on the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) rate hike and hawkish tone on policy outlook on Tuesday.Gold preserves its bullish momentum and trades above $5,000 early Wednesday, rising more than 2% on a daily basis. Similarly, Silver extends its recovery into a second straight day and gains more than 4% on the day to trade above $89.EUR/USD clings to small gains above 1.1800 after rising about 0.25% on Tuesday. The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), the European Central Bank's (ECB) preferred gauge of inflation, is forecast rise 1.7% on a yearly basis in January, compared to the 1.9% increase recorded in December.GBP/USD trades in a narrow channel above 1.3700 to start the European session on Wednesday. On Thursday, the Bank of England (BoE) will announce monetary policy decisions.USD/JPY continues to push higher after posting gains for three consecutive trading days and rises toward 156.50. Inflation FAQs What is inflation? Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%. What is the Consumer Price Index (CPI)? The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls. What is the impact of inflation on foreign exchange? Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money. How does inflation influence the price of Gold? Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it.
Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
09:07 AUD/USD: RBA hikes rates amid inflation concerns – Commerzbank
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85% and maintained a hawkish bias due to persistent inflationary pressures.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85% and maintained a hawkish bias due to persistent inflationary pressures. The RBA noted that inflation is likely to remain above target for some time, reflecting greater capacity pressures in the economy, note Charlie Lay and Moses Lim from Commerzbank.RBA maintains hawkish stance"RBA’s statement said “While inflation has fallen substantially since its peak in 2022, it picked up materially in the second half of 2025. The Board has been closely monitoring the economy and judges that some of the increase in inflation reflects greater capacity pressures.""It highlighted that “A wide range of data over recent months have confirmed that inflationary pressures picked up materially in the second half of 2025.”""It acknowledged that part of this pick-up is due to temporary factors, but it also noted that “private demand is growing more quickly than expected, capacity pressures are greater than previously assessed and labour market conditions are a little tight.”""It highlighted that “inflation is likely to remain above target for some time and it was appropriate to increase the cash rate target.”""For 2026, RBA revised the GDP forecast to 1.8% (previous: 1.9%), trimmed mean CPI inflation to 3.2% (previous: 2.7%), and the unemployment rate to 4.3% (previous: 4.4%."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
08:43 USD: Government shutdown ends – UBS
US President Trump signed a bill ending the government shutdown, a situation that has become so commonplace that markets barely registered it.
US President Trump signed a bill ending the government shutdown, a situation that has become so commonplace that markets barely registered it. Democrats have united in opposition to confirming former Federal Reserve Governor Warsh as the next Fed chair until the administration's legal pursuit of the Fed is resolved. This raises the prospect of Chair Powell remaining in his position beyond May, notes UBS Chief Economist Paul Donovan.Government shutdown resolution impacts markets"The failure of the US government to function properly is so commonplace that markets barely registered it.""Democrats have signaled a united opposition to confirming former Federal Reserve Governor Warsh as the next Fed chair, until the administration’s legal pursuit of the Fed is ended.""This was expected, but raises the prospect of Chair Powell staying on as FOMC chair (not Board of Governors chair) beyond May."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
08:19 Gold: Strong rebound after sharp declines – UOB
Gold prices rebounded strongly on Tuesday, reversing previous declines. The price rose by US$285.38 (6.1%) to US$4,946.76 per troy ounce. Silver also saw a significant rebound, increasing by US$5.89 (7.4%) to US$85.16 per troy ounce.
Gold prices rebounded strongly on Tuesday, reversing previous declines. The price rose by US$285.38 (6.1%) to US$4,946.76 per troy ounce. Silver also saw a significant rebound, increasing by US$5.89 (7.4%) to US$85.16 per troy ounce. This recovery comes amid ongoing market dynamics and investor sentiment. UOB Group's Global Economics & Markets Research Team highlights the importance of gold's price movements in the current economic landscape.Gold prices recover from previous lows"After two sessions of sharp declines, gold price rebounded strongly on Tue. By the end of the session, gold price rose by US$ 285.38 (6.1%) to US$4,946.76/ troy ounce, reversing all of Mon’s decline.""Silver also rebounded meaningfully by US$5.89 (7.4%) to US$85.16/troy ounce, just a silver below last Fri’s close but 27% off its peak on 28 Jan.""Overall, the trajectory of a weaker USD/Asia is clear and this is in line with the further strengthening of the CNY."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
08:16 EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Positive outlook remains intact, first upside barrier emerges near 186.00
The EUR/JPY cross attracts some buyers near 184.95 during the early European session on Wednesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens against the Euro (EUR) amid fiscal concerns on the back of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's reflationary policies.
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The cross maintains the constructive outlook above the 100-day EMA, with bullish RSI momentum. The first downside target to watch is 184.10; the immediate resistance level is located at 185.90. The EUR/JPY cross attracts some buyers near 184.95 during the early European session on Wednesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens against the Euro (EUR) amid fiscal concerns on the back of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's reflationary policies. Markets brace for heightened volatility ahead of a snap general election on Sunday. On the Euro front, the European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to hold its key interest rates steady at its February monetary policy meeting on Thursday. This would mark the fifth consecutive meeting with no change in rates.Technical Analysis:In the daily chart, EUR/JPY holds comfortably above the rising 100-day EMA at 180.23, preserving the broader uptrend. The average continues to ascend, underpinning pullbacks. It hovers near the upper Bollinger Band, highlighting persistent bullish pressure. RSI at 57.95 advances above its midline, signaling firm momentum without overbought conditions. Bollinger Bands slope higher, reinforcing the bullish bias as volatility remains contained. A daily close above the upper band at 185.90 would reinforce upside extension. On the downside, support sits at the middle band of 184.10, with a deeper cushion at the lower Bollinger Band of 182.34. A break below these levels would weaken the structure and shift focus toward consolidation.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
08:00 Russia S&P Global Services PMI: 53.1 (January) vs 52.3
Russia S&P Global Services PMI: 53.1 (January) vs 52.3
07:59 USD/CHF trades flat around 0.7750 as US Dollar wobbles ahead of key US data
The USD/CHF pair trades in a tight range around 0.7750 during the late Asian trading session on Wednesday.
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Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
07:26 EUR/USD gains ground above 1.1800 ahead of Eurozone HICP release
The EUR/USD pair trades on a firmer note near 1.1830 during the early European session on Wednesday. Nonetheless, the upside for the major pair might be limited as traders remain cautious after a partial government shutdown swiftly ended.
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EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
07:00 India HSBC Composite PMI down to 59.4 in January from previous 59.5
India HSBC Composite PMI down to 59.4 in January from previous 59.5
07:00 India HSBC Services PMI below expectations (59.4) in January: Actual (58.5)
India HSBC Services PMI below expectations (59.4) in January: Actual (58.5)
06:59 USD/INR opens cautiously as FIIs turn bet buyers on US-India trade deal euphoria
The Indian Rupee (INR) opens on a firm note against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, with the USD/INR pair holding onto losses near 90.55.
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The acknowledgement of the long-awaited US-India trade deal appears to have improved sentiment of foreign investors toward the Indian equity market.On Tuesday, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) turned out to be net buyers and purchased stocks worth Rs. 5,236.28 crore, the highest inflow of overseas funds seen since October 28, 2025, Economic Times (ET) reported.While market participants were cautious about whether the Indian government has sacrificed its “non-compromise” policy on critical sectors, such as agriculture and dairy; Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal has clarified that these sectors were protected from international exposure during negotiations.Going forward, investors will focus on the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) monetary policy announcement on Friday, in which it is expected to leave the Repo Rate unchanged at 5.25%.Daily Digest Market Movers: US ADP Employment and ISM Services PMI come into spotlightThe US Dollar trades broadly calm against its other currency peers ahead of the release of US ADP Employment Change and the ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for January, which will be published during the North American session.At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades almost flat around 97.45. Still, the DXY is close to its weekly high of 97.73 posted on Monday.The US ADP employment report is expected to show that private employers added 48K fresh workers, slightly higher than 41K in December. A slight improvement in the job data is unlikely to provide relief to Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, who have been expressing labor market concerns for months.The US ISM Services PMI is seen arriving at 53.5, lower than 54.4 in December, indicating that the service sector activity continued to advance but at a moderate pace.Upbeat US data would dampen market expectations for an interest rate cut by the Fed in the near term. Currently, traders seem confident that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.50%-3.75% in the March policy meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.Meanwhile, the US government partial shutdown has ended as House advanced bill to fund federal agencies on Tuesday.The US Dollar had a strong rally in the past few trading days, following president Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as new Fed Chairman. The event was positive for the US Dollar, but unfavorable for precious metals and US equities, given Warsh’s preference for a firmer US Dollar in his previous work at the Fed.Technical Analysis: USD/INR stays below 20-day EMAIn the daily chart, USD/INR trades at 90.5715. Price holds below the 20-day exponential moving average at 91.0466, which slopes lower and caps rebound attempts. The declining average keeps the near-term trend tilted lower. RSI at 44.82 (neutral) slips beneath the midline, confirming waning upside momentum.A close back above the 20-day EMA would temper bearish pressure and could pave the way for stabilization. Failure to reclaim it, alongside an RSI that stays under 50 or drifts toward 40, would maintain downside risk and keep rallies vulnerable to supply. Momentum would improve only if RSI returns above 50 and price establishes acceptance over the average.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
06:49 Gold rallies further beyond $5,050 amid flight to safety, dovish Fed expectations
Gold (XAU/USD) attracts follow-through buying for the second consecutive day and surges past the $5,000 psychological mark during the Asian session on Wednesday amid the global flight to safety.
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Concerns over rising tensions between the US and Iran resurfaced following overnight reports that the US shot down an Iranian drone in the Arabian Sea. This forces investors to take refuge in traditional safe-haven assets, which, in turn, is seen as underpinning the precious metal.The strong move up is further aided by prospects for lower US interest rates, which keep a lid on the recent US Dollar (USD) recovery from a four-year low and turn out to be another factor benefiting the non-yielding Gold. With the latest leg up, the XAU/USD pair has now recovered over $650 from the $4,400 neighborhood, or a nearly four-week low, touched on Monday. Traders now look forward to the US ADP report and the US ISM Services PMI for a fresh impetus.Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold attracts safe-haven flows amid geopolitical risks as Fed rate cut bets undermine USDA US Central Command spokesman said on Monday that a US Navy fighter jet shot down an Iranian drone in self-defense after it moved toward the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln in the Arabian Sea. This undermines the optimism over the US-Iran nuclear talks later this week on Friday and assists the safe-haven Gold to register its biggest daily rise since November 2008.US President Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair fueled speculations that the central bank will be less dovish than expected. Traders, however, are still pricing in the possibility of two more rate cuts by the Fed this year, which keeps the US Dollar bulls on the defensive and benefits the non-yielding bullion for the second consecutive day.Meanwhile, Fed Governor Stephen Miran said on Tuesday that the underlying inflation is not a problem and that the US central bank needs to cut rates by about a percentage point this year. Separately, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin noted that inflation remains above target, but further progress is expected, and the economy remains remarkably resilient.Trump on Tuesday signed a spending deal into law that restores lapsed funding for defense, healthcare, labor, education, housing, and other agencies, and temporarily extends funding for the Department of Homeland Security until February 13. ThisThis ends a partial US government shutdown and gives lawmakers time to negotiate potential limits on his immigration crackdown.The closely watched US Nonfarm Payrolls report for January will not be released this Friday. However, Wednesday's release of the US ADP report on private-sector employment should offer a fresh insight into the health of the labor market. Apart from this, the US ISM Services PMI might influence the USD demand and provide some impetus to the XAU/USD pair.Gold bulls now await sustained strength above 50-SMA on H4 before positioning for further gainsAn intraday breakout through the 50% retracement level of the recent sharp corrective decline from the $5,600 neighborhood, or the all-time peak, could be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders. Some follow-through buying beyond the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) would validate the constructive outlook and allow the Gold price to appreciate further. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line stands above the Signal line and in positive territory, with a widening positive histogram that suggests strengthening bullish momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) prints 55.83 (neutral) and edges higher, aligning with an improving tone.Bias leans mildly higher as the 50-period SMA’s nascent upturn supports dips and price action builds above it. Momentum improves, with MACD remaining positive and the histogram expanding, while the RSI holding above 50 reinforces a recovery stance; however, overhead Fibonacci resistance tempers follow-through. A sustained close beyond that barrier would open further upside, whereas a drop back below the moving average would undermine the bounce and shift focus back to recently reclaimed retracement territory.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
06:35 India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices rose in India on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
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Gold prices rose in India on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.The price for Gold stood at 14,748.40 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 14,392.14 it cost on Tuesday.The price for Gold increased to INR 172,022.50 per tola from INR 167,867.10 per tola a day earlier.Unit measureGold Price in INR1 Gram14,748.4010 Grams147,480.10Tola172,022.50Troy Ounce458,730.90FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
06:15 GBP/USD Price Forecast: Steadies above 1.3700 near nine-day EMA support
GBP/USD steadies after registering modest gains in the previous session, trading around 1.3700 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart points to a potential bearish reversal as the range narrows, indicating waning buyer momentum within a rising wedge pattern.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}GBP/USD may face initial resistance at 1.3869, its highest level since September 2021.The 14-day Relative Strength Index holds at 61.75, above mid-line and below overbought territory.Immediate support is located at the nine-day EMA near 1.3678.GBP/USD steadies after registering modest gains in the previous session, trading around 1.3700 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart points to a potential bearish reversal as the range narrows, indicating waning buyer momentum within a rising wedge pattern.The nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3678 rises above the 50-day EMA at 1.3493, with price holding above both. Both averages slope higher, reinforcing trend strength. The momentum indicator 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 61.75 stays above the 50 mid-line without overbought readings, confirming bullish momentum.The GBP/USD pair may find primary resistance at 1.3869, the highest since September 2021, reached on January 27, followed by the upper boundary of the rising wedge around 1.4010. A break above the wedge could open a fresh leg higher toward 1.4248, the highest since April 2018.The immediate support is seen at the nine-day EMA of 1.3678, aligned with the lower rising wedge boundary. A break below the wedge would cause the emergence of a bearish bias and expose the 50-day EMA support at 1.3493, followed by the support reversal zone around 1.3350.GBP/USD: Daily Chart(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data.
Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
04:55 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD surges above $87.50 on geopolitical risks
Silver price (XAG/USD) climbs to around $87.60 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The white metal rebounds after facing a historic correction last week as dip-buyers enter the market.
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Shifting expectations for the Fed chairman might cap the upside for Silver. Traders seek safe-haven assets after reports that the US shot down an Iranian drone approaching an aircraft carrier.Silver price (XAG/USD) climbs to around $87.60 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The white metal rebounds after facing a historic correction last week as dip-buyers enter the market. US President Donald Trump on Friday nominated Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as the next Chairman of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Warsh is expected to take over when Powell's term expires in May. Expectations that Trump’s pick to head the US central bank would favor maintaining elevated interest rates to curb inflation could lift the US Dollar (USD) broadly and drag the USD-denominated commodity price. The sell-off in precious metals is pressured by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group (CME) margin hikes. The CME Group over the weekend raised margin requirements for gold and silver, forcing many leveraged traders to sell their positions immediately to cover costs. On the other hand, traders seek safe-haven assets amid geopolitical risks and economic uncertainty, which could boost the Silver price. Reuters reported on Tuesday that the US military shot down an Iranian drone that "aggressively" approached the Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea. Iran asked that negotiations with the US this week be held in Oman rather than Turkey and that the scope be limited to two-way conversations on the nuclear issue only. Trump warned that with US warships heading toward Iran, "bad things" would probably happen if a deal could not be reached. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
04:52 USD/CAD holds ground near 1.3650 as Oil prices decline
USD/CAD moves little after registering modest losses in the previous session, trading around 1.3640 during the Asian hours on Wednesday.
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The pair inches higher as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) struggles amid lower Oil prices, reflecting Canada’s role as the largest crude exporter to the United States (US).West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price trades lower near $63.50 per barrel at the time of writing. However, Oil prices may build on previous gains as geopolitical tensions resurfaced after the US downed an Iranian drone near a US aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea. However, President Trump said diplomatic channels remain open, with the White House confirming US-Iran talks are still scheduled for Friday.Markets will focus later in the day on the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), which is expected to ease to 53.5 in January from 54.4 in December.The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will not publish the January employment report on Friday as scheduled because of the partial government shutdown that began last weekend. The shutdown ended late Tuesday after US President Donald Trump signed a funding deal negotiated with Senate Democrats, despite ongoing tensions over his immigration crackdown.The US Dollar (USD) could gain support as expectations shift around Federal Reserve (Fed) leadership following Trump’s nomination of former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair. Markets anticipate a slower pace of rate cuts and greater emphasis on balance sheet reduction under Warsh. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
04:49 NZD/USD Price Forecast: Sticks to mixed jobs data-led losses below mid-0.6000s
The NZD/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the previous day's move higher and attracts some sellers during the Asian session on Wednesday in reaction to mixed employment details from New Zealand.
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Furthermore, the cautious market mood offers some support to the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and turns out to be another factor undermining the risk-sensitive Kiwi.The downside for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), however, seems limited on the back of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) more hawkish outlook on the future policy path. This marks a significant divergence in comparison to bets that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut rates two more times in 2026, which keeps the USD on the defensive and should act as a tailwind for the NZD/USD pair.Spot prices currently trade around the 0.6040-0.6035 region, down nearly 0.30% for the day. That said, the recent breakout above a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and this week's resilience below the 0.6000 mark warrant some caution for the NZD/USD bears. Moreover, the SMA’s gradual upturn supports the broader uptrend, and staying above this gauge keeps the topside favored.The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in positive territory with the MACD line above the Signal line, while a contracting positive histogram hints at moderating upside momentum. The Relative Strength Index stands at 68 (bullish), just below overbought. A renewed expansion in MACD would open the door to further gains, with dips expected to draw buyers ahead of the rising 200-day SMA.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)NZD/USD daily chart New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
04:32 Japanese Yen slides to nearly two-week low vs. USD amid fiscal and political concerns
The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues with its relative underperformance on Wednesday amid concerns about Japan's fiscal health under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's expansionary spending policy.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Japanese Yen remains depressed, as fiscal concerns and political uncertainty offset the upbeat data.Intervention fears and the BoJ’s hawkish tilt might hold back the JPY bears from placing fresh bets.Expectations for more Fed easing act as a headwind for the USD and should cap the USD/JPY pair.The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues with its relative underperformance on Wednesday amid concerns about Japan's fiscal health under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's expansionary spending policy. Apart from this, domestic political uncertainty ahead of the snap election on February 8 turns out to be another factor undermining the JPY. This, along with a modest US Dollar (USD) uptick, lifts the USD/JPY pair above the 156.00 mark, or a nearly two-week high, during the Asian session.Meanwhile, traders remain on high alert amid the possibility of a coordinated Japan-US intervention to stem the JPY's decline. Moreover, the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) gradual policy tightening narrative might hold back the JPY bears from placing aggressive bets. Apart from this, bets that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower borrowing costs two more times keep the USD bulls on the defensive and should contribute to capping the USD/JPY pair ahead of the US macro data, due later today.Japanese Yen continues to be weighed down by worries about Japan’s fiscal health under PM TakaichiJapan’s services sector growth accelerated at the start of 2026, with business activity expanding for the tenth consecutive month and at its fastest pace in almost a year. In fact, the Jibun Bank Services PMI climbed to 53.7 compared to 51.6 in December and consensus estimates for a reading of 53.4.The data signaled a more durable recovery in the services sector, which accounts for roughly 70% of Japan’s GDP. The market reaction, however, turns out to be muted amid nervousness over Japan’s fiscal outlook, fueled by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s aggressive spending and tax cut plans.In fact, Takaichi has pledged to suspend the 8% consumption tax on food for two years as part of her campaign ahead of a snap lower house election on February 8. This puts the spotlight back on Japan's already strained public finances, which continue to undermine the Japanese Yen on Wednesday.The unusual rate check by the New York Federal Reserve recently was seen as the strongest signal to date that Japanese and US authorities were working together to stem the JPY's decline. This lowers the threshold for intervention and could limit JPY losses amid hawkish Bank of Japan bets.The Summary of Opinions from the BoJ's January meeting, released on Monday, showed that policymakers debated mounting price pressures from a weak JPY. Moreover, board members judged that further rate increases were appropriate over time, which could lend support to the JPY.The US Dollar, on the other hand, struggles to build on last week's recovery from a four-year low, bolstered by the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair. Even the passage of the government funding package to end a partial shutdown does little to provide any impetus to the USD.Traders now look forward to the release of the US ADP report on private-sector employment and the US ISM Services PMI. Apart from this, comments from influential FOMC members might influence the USD demand amid bets for two more rate cuts in 2026 and drive the USD/JPY pair.USD/JPY might struggle to make it through 156.50-156.55 confluence resistanceWednesday's move beyond the 156.00 mark comes on top of the overnight breakout through the 50% retracement level of the 159.13-152.06 downfall and favors the USD/JPY bulls. The Relative Strength Index (14) sits at 66.9, below overbought, aligning with a firm but maturing advance.However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains positive but is contracting, suggesting fading bullish momentum. The MACD line stands above the Signal line, and both hover around the zero line, reinforcing a cautious, transitional tone.Hence, any subsequent move up is more likely to confront stiff resistance near the 156.51 confluence – comprising the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. A sustained break above the said barrier is needed to shift the near-term tone to the upside.A clearance would open the 78.6% retracement at 157.62, while failure to overcome that barrier would leave the recovery vulnerable to renewed pullbacks. Meanwhile, the USD/JPY pair holds beneath the downward sloping 100-period SMA, suggesting that the move higher is likely to remain capped.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
04:01 WTI drifts higher above $63.50 after US shoots down Iranian drone
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $63.75 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The WTI price edges higher amid fears of rising tensions between the United States (US) and Iran.
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US crude oil inventories fell the most since August 2023. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $63.75 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The WTI price edges higher amid fears of rising tensions between the United States (US) and Iran. Traders brace for the release of the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) crude oil stockpiles report on Wednesday. CNBC reported on Tuesday that the US military shot down an Iranian drone that "aggressively" approached the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea. This event took place at a time when tensions in the Middle East are high, with US President Donald Trump considering military attacks against Iran.Additionally, Iran demanded that talks with the US this week take place in Oman rather than Turkey and that the scope be limited to two-way conversations on the nuclear issue only, complicating an already delicate diplomatic effort. Any signs of escalating tensions between the US and Iran, OPEC’s fourth-largest crude oil producer, could boost the WTI price in the near term.According to the American Petroleum Institute (API) weekly report, crude oil stockpiles in the US for the week ending January 30 fell by 11.1 million barrels, compared to a decline of 250,000 barrels in the previous week. The market consensus was for an increase of 700,000 barrels. The significant drop in crude inventories could provide some support to the WTI price. On the other hand, a renewed US Dollar (USD) demand might cap the upside for the USD-denominated commodity price. US President Donald Trump nominated Governor Kevin Warsh to serve as the next Chairman of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Traders anticipate a slower pace of interest rate cuts under his tenure and a focus on shrinking the Fed's balance sheet. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
03:46 China’s RatingDog Services PMI rises to 52.3 in January vs. 51.8 expected
China's Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) climbed to 52.3 in January from 52.0 in December, the latest data published by RatingDog showed on Wednesday. This figure came in stronger than the expectations of 51.8.
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China's Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) climbed to 52.3 in January from 52.0 in December, the latest data published by RatingDog showed on Wednesday. This figure came in stronger than the expectations of 51.8. AUD/USD reaction to China’s Services PMIThe Chinese proxy, the Australian Dollar (AUD), edges slightly higher following the upbeat Chinese data, with AUD/USD gaining 0.14% on the day to 0.7031, as of writing. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
03:45 China RatingDog Services PMI came in at 52.3, above expectations (51.8) in January
China RatingDog Services PMI came in at 52.3, above expectations (51.8) in January
03:34 Australian Dollar extends gains following S&P Global PMI data
The Australian Dollar (AUD) advances against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday after registering over 1% gains in the previous session.
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.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Australian Dollar rose after Composite PMI jumped to 55.7 in January, marking the strongest expansion in 45 months.The AUD gained as markets priced an 80% chance of a May hike and 40 basis points of further tightening.The US Dollar remains subdued for a second consecutive session.The Australian Dollar (AUD) advances against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday after registering over 1% gains in the previous session. The AUD/USD pair rises after the release of seasonally adjusted S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data, which showed Australia’s Composite PMI rising to 55.7 in January from 51.0 in December. The expansion was the strongest in 45 months.The S&P Global Australia Services PMI climbed to 56.3 from 51.1, marking its highest level since February 2022. The reading beat the flash estimate of 56.0 and remained above the 50.0 threshold, extending the run of expanding services activity to two years.The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.85% on Tuesday, citing stronger-than-expected growth and a sticky inflation outlook. As the tightening cycle begins, markets have lifted the probability of a May hike to 80% and now price in roughly 40 bps of further tightening over the rest of the year.RBA Governor Michele Bullock said during the post-meeting press conference that inflation pressures remain too strong, warning it will take longer to return to target and is no longer acceptable. She stressed the board will stay data-dependent and avoid forward guidance.US Dollar moves little after registering recent lossesThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is remaining subdued for the second successive session and trading near 97.40 at the time of writing.Monday’s data showed an unexpected rebound in US factory activity, underscoring economic resilience, as the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 52.6 from 47.9 in December, beating market expectations of 48.5.US President Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair. Markets interpreted Warsh’s appointment as signaling a more disciplined and cautious approach to monetary easing.The US Dollar gained traction as risk sentiment improved after the US Senate reached an agreement to advance a government funding package, thereby averting a shutdown, according to Politico.US producer-side inflation firmed, moving further away from the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and reinforcing the central bank’s policy stance. US PPI inflation holds steady at 3.0% year-over-year (YoY) in December, unchanged from November and above expectations for a moderation to 2.7%. Core PPI, excluding food and energy, accelerated to 3.3% YoY from 3.0%, defying forecasts for a decline to 2.9% and highlighting persistent upstream price pressures.St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said additional rate cuts are not warranted at this stage, characterizing the current 3.50%–3.75% policy rate range as broadly neutral. Similarly, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic urged patience, arguing that monetary policy should remain modestly restrictive.Australia’s RBA Trimmed Mean inflation increased to 0.2% month-over-month (MoM) and 3.3% year-over-year (YoY). The monthly CPI rose 1.0% in December, up from 0% previously and above the 0.7% forecast.Australia’s export prices rose 3.2% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) in Q4 2025, rebounding from a 0.9% fall in Q3 and marking the first increase in three quarters, as well as the strongest gain in a year. Meanwhile, import prices climbed 0.9%, beating expectations for a 0.2% decline and reversing a 0.4% drop in Q3.China's RatingDog Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 50.3 in January from 50.1 in December. This figure came in line with the expectations. The latest reading indicated a slight expansion in factory activity, but the fastest growth since last October.Australia’s TD-MI Inflation Gauge rose 3.6% year-over-year (YoY) in January, up from 3.5% previously. The Monthly Inflation Gauge increased by 0.2%, slowing sharply from December’s two-year high of 1% and marking the weakest pace since August.ANZ Job Advertisements jumped 4.4% month-over-month (MoM) in December 2025, rebounding from a revised 0.8% decline and posting the first increase since July. The rise was also the strongest monthly gain since February 2022, signaling renewed momentum in hiring toward year-end.Australian Dollar rebounds toward three-year highs near 0.7100The AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.7030 on Wednesday. Daily chart analysis indicates that the pair remains within the ascending channel pattern, indicating a persistent bullish bias. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 73.30; it typically signals bullish momentum, but stretching momentum.The AUD/USD pair rebounded toward 0.7094, the highest level since February 2023, which was recorded on January 29. A break above this level would support the pair to test the upper ascending channel boundary around 0.7210. On the downside, the primary support lies at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 0.6964, aligned with the lower boundary of the channel. Further declines would expose the 50-day EMA at 0.6759 support.AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.00% -0.06% 0.25% 0.00% -0.13% 0.17% 0.08% EUR 0.00% -0.06% 0.28% 0.01% -0.13% 0.17% 0.08% GBP 0.06% 0.06% 0.32% 0.07% -0.07% 0.23% 0.14% JPY -0.25% -0.28% -0.32% -0.24% -0.38% -0.09% -0.17% CAD -0.01% -0.01% -0.07% 0.24% -0.14% 0.15% 0.07% AUD 0.13% 0.13% 0.07% 0.38% 0.14% 0.30% 0.22% NZD -0.17% -0.17% -0.23% 0.09% -0.15% -0.30% -0.09% CHF -0.08% -0.08% -0.14% 0.17% -0.07% -0.22% 0.09% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
03:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 6.9533 vs. 6.9608 previous
On Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 6.9533 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.9608 and 6.9385 Reuters estimate.
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On Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 6.9533 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.9608 and 6.9385 Reuters estimate. PBOC FAQs What does the People's Bank of China do? The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market. Who owns the PBoC? The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts. What are the main policy tools used by the PBoC? Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi. Are private banks allowed in China? Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
03:01 EUR/USD consolidates above 1.1800 as trades await Eurozone CPI and US data
The EUR/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the previous day's modest bounce from the 1.1780-1.1775 area, or over a one-week low, and oscillates in a narrow band during the Asian session on Wednesday.
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Spot prices currently trade around the 1.1815 zone, nearly unchanged for the day, as traders keenly await the release of the flash Eurozone consumer inflation figures.The preliminary estimate is expected to show that the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) fell to the 1.7% YoY rate in January from 1.9% in the previous month, while the core gauge is seen holding steady at 2.3% YoY. The European Central Bank (ECB) views this as a temporary deviation, suggesting no immediate adjustments to monetary policy. Nevertheless, the data could influence the shared currency and provide some impetus to the EUR/USD pair.Later during the North American session, traders will take cues from the US ADP report on private-sector employment and the US ISM Services PMI, which might further contribute to producing short-term opportunities. The immediate market reaction to the releases, however, is more likely to be limited as the focus will remain glued to the highly anticipated ECB policy meeting on Thursday. The outcome will play a key role in driving the EUR/USD pair in the near term.In the meantime, a slight deterioration in the global risk sentiment offers some support to the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and acts as a headwind for the currency pair. That said, the growing acceptance that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut rates two more times in 2026 could cap the USD and support the EUR/USD pair. This warrants caution before positioning for an extension of the EUR/USD pair's pullback from the highest level since June 2021, touched last week. Economic Indicator Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) measures changes in the prices of a representative basket of goods and services in the European Monetary Union. The HICP, released by Eurostat on a monthly basis, is harmonized because the same methodology is used across all member states and their contribution is weighted. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Euro (EUR), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Wed Feb 04, 2026 10:00 (Prel) Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 1.7% Previous: 1.9% Source: Eurostat
02:46 USD/JPY strengthens above 155.50 on Japan's political uncertainty
The USD/JPY pair gains momentum to around 155.85 during the early Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens against the US Dollar (USD) amid political uncertainty in Japan.
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Traders are cautious ahead of Japan’s snap lower house election on Sunday. The nomination of Kevin Warsh to lead the Fed could lift the US Dollar. The USD/JPY pair gains momentum to around 155.85 during the early Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens against the US Dollar (USD) amid political uncertainty in Japan. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will not publish the January employment report on Friday as scheduled due to the partial government shutdown that began on Saturday.Markets brace for heightened volatility ahead of a snap general election on Sunday. Meanwhile, fiscal concerns on the back of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's reflationary policies could undermine the JPY against the USD. Takaichi has pledged to suspend the consumption tax on food for two years if her Liberal Democratic Party wins the snap election. Markets remain alert for potential intervention from Japanese authorities. Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Tuesday that she will continue to closely coordinate with US authorities as needed, based on a joint Japan and US statement issued in September last year, and respond appropriately. Intervention fears could boost the Japanese Yen and act as a headwind for the pair in the near term. On the other hand, shifting expectations for US Federal Reserve (Fed) leadership could support the Greenback. US President Donald Trump nominated former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh to serve as the next Chairman of the US central bank. Traders anticipate a slower pace of interest rate cuts under his tenure and a focus on shrinking the Fed's balance sheet. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
02:30 Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI came in at 53.7, above forecasts (53.4) in January
Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI came in at 53.7, above forecasts (53.4) in January
02:17 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD recovers above $4,950 as US-Iran tensions boost safe-haven demand
Gold price (XAU/USD) trades in positive territory near $4,985 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The precious metal extends the rebound after a historic and volatile sell-off last week. Traders weigh the next round of US economic signals and the broader demand for safe-haven assets.
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US warplane shot down an Iranian drone that “aggressively approached” the USS Abraham Lincoln, boosting the safe-haven flows.The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair might cap the Gold’s upside. Gold price (XAU/USD) trades in positive territory near $4,985 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The precious metal extends the rebound after a historic and volatile sell-off last week. Traders weigh the next round of US economic signals and the broader demand for safe-haven assets.CNBC reported on Tuesday that the US military shot down an Iranian drone that "aggressively" approached the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea. The incident occurred as tensions in the Middle East are high, with US President Donald Trump weighing potential military strikes against the Islamic Republic.Iran demanded that talks with the US this week take place in Oman rather than Turkey, and that the scope be limited to two-way conversations on the nuclear issue only, complicating an already delicate diplomatic effort. Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding US-Iran negotiations. Any signs of escalating tensions between the US and Iran could boost traditional safe-haven assets such as Gold in the near term. On the other hand, the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve (Fed) chairman might cap the upside for the yellow metal. Markets see Warsh as a "hawkish" pick for Fed Chair and likely to keep interest rates elevated.Traders dialed back expectations for a Fed rate cut following the Fed's January pause and the nomination of Warsh. Financial markets currently priced in nearly a 66% odds of a rate reduction at the June policy meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
02:03 New Zealand ANZ Commodity Price climbed from previous -2.1% to 2% in January
New Zealand ANZ Commodity Price climbed from previous -2.1% to 2% in January
01:18 NZD/USD holds positive ground near 0.6050 after New Zealand’s employment report
The NZD/USD pair holds positive ground near 0.6050 during the early Asian session on Wednesday, bolstered by a weaker US Dollar (USD). Increased US policy volatility continues to drag the Greenback lower against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD).
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New Zealand’s Unemployment Rate rose to 5.4%, marking the highest jobless rate in over a decade. The US House passed a spending bill ending the partial government shutdown. The NZD/USD pair holds positive ground near 0.6050 during the early Asian session on Wednesday, bolstered by a weaker US Dollar (USD). Increased US policy volatility continues to drag the Greenback lower against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). Traders will take more cues from China’s January RatingDog Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) report, which is due later on Wednesday. Data released by Statistics New Zealand showed on Wednesday that New Zealand’s Unemployment Rate rose to 5.4% in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2025, up from 5.3% in Q3. The figure came in above the market consensus of 5.3% and reached levels last seen in the September 2015 quarter.The higher-than-expected jobless rate could weigh on the Kiwi, as it indicates economic weakness and provides the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) more room to hold or lower interest rates.US President Donald Trump signed a bill to end a partial government shutdown that began on Saturday, per the BBC. The deal passed the US House of Representatives in a 217-214 vote earlier on Tuesday. The package cleared the Senate last Friday.However, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics stated on Monday that a partial government shutdown would delay the release of the highly anticipated employment report for January, which had been due for release this Friday. Political and fiscal uncertainty in the US could undermine the USD and create a tailwind for the pair in the near term. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
01:15 GBP/USD consolidates ahead of Bank of England rate decision
The Pound Sterling (GBP) traded in a narrow range against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, edging modestly higher to near 1.3700 as markets adopted a cautious stance ahead of the Bank of England's (BoE) first policy decision of 2026.
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GBP/USD opened the session at 1.3665 and touched an intraday high near 1.3707, with the pair consolidating below the multi-year high of 1.3869 posted in late January.The BoE is widely expected to leave its Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% when the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) delivers its verdict on Thursday. Market pricing shows only a 4% probability of a rate cut at this meeting, with the next reduction now penciled in for April at the earliest. December's decision to cut rates was narrowly split at 5-4, and Governor Andrew Bailey has cautioned that future cuts will become "a closer call" as rates approach neutral levels.UK manufacturing data supports cautious optimismUK economic data has provided some support for Sterling, with the S&P; Global Manufacturing PMI rising to 51.8 in January from 50.6 in December, marking a 17-month high. The reading exceeded expectations and showed the fourth consecutive month of expansion, with new export orders rising for the first time in four years. Business confidence rebounded to its highest level since before the 2024 Autumn Budget, offering a tentative positive signal for the UK economy.However, UK inflation remains a concern, with Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December showing a rise to 3.4% year-on-year, up from 3.2% in November. This sticky inflation picture has limited the BoE's room for maneuver on rate cuts, even as the labor market shows signs of cooling with unemployment at 5.1%.US Dollar steadies after volatile weekThe US Dollar Index (DXY) traded around 97.5 on Tuesday, easing slightly after a sharp two-day rebound earlier in the session. The Greenback found support following President Donald Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair when Powell's term expires in May. Markets have interpreted the Warsh pick as relatively hawkish, though uncertainty around Fed policy direction persists.The partial US government shutdown, which began Saturday, came to an end on Tuesday after the House passed a funding package by a narrow 217-214 vote. President Trump signed the legislation into law, providing full-year funding for most federal agencies while extending Department of Homeland Security funding for just two weeks. The January Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, originally due Friday, will be delayed due to the shutdown's impact on Bureau of Labor Statistics operations.BoE policy outlook in focusWhile the BoE is expected to stand pat this week, the policy outlook beyond February remains divided. Some economists see as many as four rate cuts in 2026, while markets are pricing in only one or two reductions. BoE policymaker Megan Greene recently noted that rate cuts may be more limited than expected due to strong UK wage growth and the potential impact of Fed policy decisions on UK inflation. The MPC's guidance on Thursday will be closely scrutinized for signals on the pace of future easing.Pound Sterling price forecastGBP/USD continues to trade within a bullish tilt on the daily chart, with price action holding near 1.3700 after pulling back from the January 27 high of 1.3869. The pair remains well above both the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3485 and the 200-day EMA at 1.3338, maintaining a clear bullish bias in the medium term.The recent pullback from multi-year highs has found support near the 1.3650 area, with buyers stepping in on dips. Immediate resistance sits at the psychological 1.3700 level, followed by the recent swing high at 1.3869. A sustained break above 1.3870 would open the door for a move toward 1.3900 and potentially 1.4000 over the coming weeks.The Stochastic Oscillator readings at 73.67 and 83.41 indicate the pair is trading in overbought territory, suggesting short-term momentum may be stretched. This could invite profit-taking or consolidation before another leg higher. On the downside, a break below 1.3650 would expose the 1.3500 area, where the 50-day EMA could provide dynamic support. The broader uptrend remains intact while price holds above the 200-day EMA at 1.3338.GBP/USD daily chart
GDP FAQs What is GDP and how is it recorded? A country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the rate of growth of its economy over a given period of time, usually a quarter. The most reliable figures are those that compare GDP to the previous quarter e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q1 of 2023, or to the same period in the previous year, e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q2 of 2022. Annualized quarterly GDP figures extrapolate the growth rate of the quarter as if it were constant for the rest of the year. These can be misleading, however, if temporary shocks impact growth in one quarter but are unlikely to last all year – such as happened in the first quarter of 2020 at the outbreak of the covid pandemic, when growth plummeted. How does GDP influence currencies? A higher GDP result is generally positive for a nation’s currency as it reflects a growing economy, which is more likely to produce goods and services that can be exported, as well as attracting higher foreign investment. By the same token, when GDP falls it is usually negative for the currency. When an economy grows people tend to spend more, which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation with the side effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors, thus helping the local currency appreciate. How does higher GDP impact the price of Gold? When an economy grows and GDP is rising, people tend to spend more which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold versus placing the money in a cash deposit account. Therefore, a higher GDP growth rate is usually a bearish factor for Gold price.
GDP FAQs What is GDP and how is it recorded? A country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the rate of growth of its economy over a given period of time, usually a quarter. The most reliable figures are those that compare GDP to the previous quarter e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q1 of 2023, or to the same period in the previous year, e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q2 of 2022. Annualized quarterly GDP figures extrapolate the growth rate of the quarter as if it were constant for the rest of the year. These can be misleading, however, if temporary shocks impact growth in one quarter but are unlikely to last all year – such as happened in the first quarter of 2020 at the outbreak of the covid pandemic, when growth plummeted. How does GDP influence currencies? A higher GDP result is generally positive for a nation’s currency as it reflects a growing economy, which is more likely to produce goods and services that can be exported, as well as attracting higher foreign investment. By the same token, when GDP falls it is usually negative for the currency. When an economy grows people tend to spend more, which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation with the side effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors, thus helping the local currency appreciate. How does higher GDP impact the price of Gold? When an economy grows and GDP is rising, people tend to spend more which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold versus placing the money in a cash deposit account. Therefore, a higher GDP growth rate is usually a bearish factor for Gold price.
00:59 New Zealand GDT Price Index up to 6.7% from previous 1.5%
New Zealand GDT Price Index up to 6.7% from previous 1.5%
00:56 CNY: Measured appreciation path expected – OCBC
The report by Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong from OCBC Bank, indicates that a sub-Bloomberg consensus USDCNY fix signals a growing tolerance for RMB strength. However, authorities appear committed to a measured and orderly appreciation path for the Renminbi (CNY).
The report by Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong from OCBC Bank, indicates that a sub-Bloomberg consensus USDCNY fix signals a growing tolerance for RMB strength. However, authorities appear committed to a measured and orderly appreciation path for the Renminbi (CNY). The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining orderly market dynamics.Authorities favor orderly RMB appreciation"A sub-Bloomberg consensus USDCNY fix signals growing tolerance for RMB strength, but authorities still appear committed to a measured, orderly RMB appreciation path.""This approach aims to prevent markets from rushing to offload USD in a disorderly manner, thereby avoiding any abrupt price fluctuations and ensuring orderly market dynamics."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
00:22 New Zealand’s Unemployment Rate rises to 5.4% in Q4 vs. 5.3% expected
New Zealand’s Unemployment Rate rose to 5.4% in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2025 from 5.3% in the third quarter, according to the official data released by Statistics New Zealand on Wednesday. The figure came in above the market consensus of 5.3%.
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New Zealand’s Unemployment Rate rose to 5.4% in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2025 from 5.3% in the third quarter, according to the official data released by Statistics New Zealand on Wednesday. The figure came in above the market consensus of 5.3%.Furthermore, New Zealand’s Employment Change arrived at 0.5% in Q4, up from 0% in Q3, compared with the consensus forecast of 0.3%. The participation rate in New Zealand increased to 70.5% in Q4, compared to 70.3% in the previous reading.Market reaction to the New Zealand’s employment dataAt the time of writing, the NZD/USD pair is trading 0.04% lower on the day to trade at 0.6045. Employment FAQs How do employment levels affect currencies? Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages. Why is wage growth important? The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy. How much do central banks care about employment? The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.
00:04 Australia S&P Global Services PMI rose from previous 56 to 56.3 in January
Australia S&P Global Services PMI rose from previous 56 to 56.3 in January
00:04 Australia S&P Global Composite PMI climbed from previous 55.5 to 55.7 in January
Australia S&P Global Composite PMI climbed from previous 55.5 to 55.7 in January
00:01 United States API Weekly Crude Oil Stock came in at -11.1M below forecasts (0.7M) in January 30
United States API Weekly Crude Oil Stock came in at -11.1M below forecasts (0.7M) in January 30
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