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06:17 GBP/USD Price Forecast: Tests nine-day EMA barrier near 1.2950 amid a bullish bias
The GBP/USD pair loses ground after registering gains in the previous two sessions, trading around 1.2930 during the Asian hours on Wednesday.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}GBP/USD tests immediate barrier at nine-day EMA at 1.2938 level.The 14-day RSI reinforces strong bullish momentum as it stays above the 50 mark.The primary support appears at the ascending channel’s lower boundary near 1.2840.The GBP/USD pair loses ground after registering gains in the previous two sessions, trading around 1.2930 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates a continued bullish bias, with the pair consolidating within an ascending channel pattern.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned above 50, reinforcing strong bullish momentum. However, the GBP/USD pair has broken below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), suggesting a bearish shift in the short-term price momentum.
The GBP/USD pair is testing an immediate barrier at the nine-day EMA at the 1.2938 level. A rebound above this level could revive the short-term price momentum, followed by the four-month high at 1.3014, recorded on March 20. Further advancement could reinforce the bullish bias and support the pair to test the ascending channel’s upper boundary near 1.3170.
On the downside, the GBP/USD pair is likely to navigate the region around the ascending channel’s lower boundary near 1.2840, followed by the 50-day EMA at 1.2739. A break below this level could weaken the medium-term price momentum and put downward pressure on the pair to depreciate toward a two-month low at the 1.2249 level, which was recorded on February 3.
GBP/USD: Daily Chart
British Pound PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.07% 0.10% 0.41% -0.00% -0.04% -0.18% 0.10% EUR -0.07% 0.03% 0.31% -0.08% -0.10% -0.25% 0.03% GBP -0.10% -0.03% 0.31% -0.10% -0.12% -0.28% 0.04% JPY -0.41% -0.31% -0.31% -0.40% -0.45% -0.58% -0.28% CAD 0.00% 0.08% 0.10% 0.40% 0.00% -0.18% 0.14% AUD 0.04% 0.10% 0.12% 0.45% 0.00% -0.15% 0.16% NZD 0.18% 0.25% 0.28% 0.58% 0.18% 0.15% 0.30% CHF -0.10% -0.03% -0.04% 0.28% -0.14% -0.16% -0.30%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
05:43 USD/CAD remains below 1.4300 amid news of Canada facing US tariffs lowest tier
USD/CAD extends its losing streak for the third consecutive session, hovering near 1.4270 during Wednesday’s Asian trading hours.
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US President Donald Trump is reportedly weighing a three-tiered tariff system, though some sources indicate this approach is not yet official. However, it aligns with the government's expectations for the upcoming week.
Additionally, the CAD benefits from rising Oil prices, supported by supply concerns amid escalating Middle East tensions and a sharper-than-expected drop in US crude inventories. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price remains in positive territory for the third straight day, trading around $69.10 per barrel at the time of writing.
However, the downside of the USD/CAD pair could be limited as the US Dollar (USD) gains support as market caution rises ahead of US President Donald Trump's tariff announcement on April 2. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, retraced its recent losses from the previous session and is trading around 104.30 at the time of writing.
Additionally, the Greenback finds support from hawkish remarks by Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler. On Tuesday, Kugler emphasized that the Fed’s interest rate policy remains restrictive and well-positioned. Kugler also noted that progress toward the 2% inflation target has slowed since last summer and described the recent rise in goods inflation as "unhelpful."
Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar?
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar?
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar?
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar?
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar?
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
05:15 UK CPI expected to soften in February, keeping pressure on BoE
The United Kingdom’s (UK) Office for National Statistics (ONS) will publish the highly anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February on Wednesday at 07:00 GMT.
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.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The United Kingdom’s Office for National Statistics will release the February CPI data on Wednesday.The annual UK headline and core CPI inflation are set to ease slightly in February.The UK CPI data could impact the direction of the Pound Sterling and the BoE’s interest rates. The United Kingdom’s (UK) Office for National Statistics (ONS) will publish the highly anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February on Wednesday at 07:00 GMT.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) could experience intense volatility following the UK CPI inflation report, as it is likely to alter the market’s expectations for the Bank of England’s (BoE) future interest rate cuts.
What to expect from the next UK inflation report?
The UK Consumer Price Index is expected to increase by 2.9% year-over-year (YoY) in February, following a 3% growth in January.
The reading is expected to remain distant from the BoE’s 2.0% target.
Core CPI inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco prices, is expected to be slightly lower at 3.6% (YoY) in February, down from January’s 3.7%.
According to a Bloomberg survey of economists, official data is expected to show that service inflation will likely ease to 4.9% in February after jumping to 5% in January.
Meanwhile, the British monthly CPI is expected to rise by 0.5% in the same period, compared to the previous decline of 0.1%.
Previewing the UK inflation data, TD Securities analysts noted: “Inflation is slated to cool slightly, with headline dropping to 2.8% (consensus: 2.9%; prior: 3.0%). We also expect core and services to come in lower, at 3.6% YoY (prior: 3.7% YoY and 4.9% YoY (prior: 5.0% YoY), respectively. While all these numbers are softer than in Jan, the deceleration remains too slow for the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) preferences.”
How will the UK Consumer Price Index report affect GBP/USD?
At its monetary policy meeting earlier this month, the Bank of England (BoE) held interest rates at 4.5% on Thursday, warranting caution against expectations that they would cut rates over its next few meetings amid heightened uncertainty over the UK and global economies.
“However, the 8-1 vote split to stay on hold was a hawkish surprise and triggered an upward adjustment to UK rate expectations. The swaps market continues to price in 50 bps of easing over the next 12 months but has fully priced out any odds of an additional 25 bps cut following the less dovish MPC vote split,” BBH analysts noted.
Therefore, an upside surprise to the headline and core inflation data is needed to reaffirm the BoE’s prudent approach and increased bets for fewer rate cuts this year. In such a case, the Pound Sterling uptrend is expected to resume, lifting GBP/USD back toward the 1.3050 barrier. Conversely, softer-than-expected inflation readings will likely alleviate UK economic concerns, reviving expectations for aggressive BoE rate cuts and extending GBP/USD correction from four-month highs.
Any reaction to the UK inflation report is likely to be short-lived, given the upcoming British Spring Budget Statement, scheduled for later on Wednesday.
Dhwani Mehta, Asian Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, offers a brief technical outlook for the major and explains: “GBP/USD is holding above all major daily Simple Moving Averages (SMA) heading into the UK CPI showdown, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum indicator in the daily chart holding firm above 50. The 50-day SMA and the 100-day SMA Bull Cross, confirmed on Monday, remains in play and acts as a tailwind for the pair.”
Dhwani adds: “However, the pair needs acceptance above the 1.3000 threshold to initiate a sustained uptrend toward the November 2024 high of 1.3048. The next relevant resistance is aligned at the 1.3100 round level. Alternatively, the immediate support is seen at the 21-day SMA at 1.2863, below which the critical 200-day SMA at 1.2800 will come into play. A sustained break below this level will intensify the selling pressure, potentially leading to a test of the 1.2750 psychological level.”
Economic Indicator
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
The United Kingdom (UK) Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly basis, is a measure of consumer price inflation – the rate at which the prices of goods and services bought by households rise or fall – produced to international standards. It is the inflation measure used in the government’s target. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Wed Mar 26, 2025 07:00 Frequency: MonthlyConsensus: 2.9%Previous: 3%Source: Office for National Statistics
Why it matters to traders?
The Bank of England is tasked with keeping inflation, as measured by the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) at around 2%, giving the monthly release its importance. An increase in inflation implies a quicker and sooner increase of interest rates or the reduction of bond-buying by the BOE, which means squeezing the supply of pounds. Conversely, a drop in the pace of price rises indicates looser monetary policy. A higher-than-expected result tends to be GBP bullish.
BoE FAQs What does the Bank of England do and how does it impact the Pound?
The Bank of England (BoE) decides monetary policy for the United Kingdom. Its primary goal is to achieve ‘price stability’, or a steady inflation rate of 2%. Its tool for achieving this is via the adjustment of base lending rates. The BoE sets the rate at which it lends to commercial banks and banks lend to each other, determining the level of interest rates in the economy overall. This also impacts the value of the Pound Sterling (GBP). How does the Bank of England’s monetary policy influence Sterling?
When inflation is above the Bank of England’s target it responds by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is positive for the Pound Sterling because higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls below target, it is a sign economic growth is slowing, and the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit in the hope businesses will borrow to invest in growth-generating projects – a negative for the Pound Sterling. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Pound?
In extreme situations, the Bank of England can enact a policy called Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the BoE substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. QE is a last resort policy when lowering interest rates will not achieve the necessary result. The process of QE involves the BoE printing money to buy assets – usually government or AAA-rated corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Pound Sterling. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Pound Sterling?
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE, enacted when the economy is strengthening and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Bank of England (BoE) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to encourage them to lend; in QT, the BoE stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive for the Pound Sterling.
04:54 USD/INR holds positive ground on a rise in month-end US Dollar demand
The Indian Rupee (INR) loses momentum on Wednesday. Month-end US Dollar (USD) demand from local oil companies and importers, coupled with the Greenback's recovery against major currencies, undermines the Indian currency.
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On the other hand, the rise in Indian stock markets with foreign institutional investors (FIIs) back into buying mode lifts the local currency. The US MBA’s Mortgage Applications and Durable Goods Orders are due later on Wednesday. Also, the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials are scheduled to speak, including Neel Kashkari and Alberto Musalem. Indian Rupee against the USD edges lower amid firm US Dollar demand “There was month-end demand, particularly from oil companies, and likely dollar demand from the Reserve Bank to close its open short positions due in March,” said Anil Bhansali, head of treasury, Finrex Treasury Advisors. US President Donald Trump said early Wednesday that he is set to implement copper import tariffs within weeks, per Bloomberg. The US Consumer Confidence Index has fallen for the fourth consecutive month to a 12-year low, dropping to 92.9 in March, the Conference Board showed Tuesday. This figure came in lower than the estimation of 94.5. The US New Home Sales rose 1.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 676,000 units in February, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau revealed on Tuesday. The sales pace for January was revised up to a rate of 664,000 units from the previously reported 657,000 units. USD/INR’s bearish outlook remains in play under the 100-day EMA The Indian Rupee softens on the day. The USD/INR pair keeps the bearish vibe, characterized by the price holding below the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average on the daily timeframe. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) moves below the 30.00 mark, indicating oversold conditions and warranting some caution. This suggests that further consolidation or a temporary recovery is on the cards.
The low of January 6 at 85.60 acts as an initial support level for USD/INR. Sustained bearish pressure could drag the pair lower to 84.84, the low of December 19, 2024. Further south, the additional downside filter to watch is 84.22, the low of November 25, 2024.
On the upside, the psychological level and the 100-day EMA in the 85.95-86.00 zone appear to be a tough nut to crack for bulls. A decisive break above this level could set its sights on the next upside targets at 86.48, the low of February 21, en route to 87.00, the round figure. Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
On the other hand, the rise in Indian stock markets with foreign institutional investors (FIIs) back into buying mode lifts the local currency. The US MBA’s Mortgage Applications and Durable Goods Orders are due later on Wednesday. Also, the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials are scheduled to speak, including Neel Kashkari and Alberto Musalem. Indian Rupee against the USD edges lower amid firm US Dollar demand “There was month-end demand, particularly from oil companies, and likely dollar demand from the Reserve Bank to close its open short positions due in March,” said Anil Bhansali, head of treasury, Finrex Treasury Advisors. US President Donald Trump said early Wednesday that he is set to implement copper import tariffs within weeks, per Bloomberg. The US Consumer Confidence Index has fallen for the fourth consecutive month to a 12-year low, dropping to 92.9 in March, the Conference Board showed Tuesday. This figure came in lower than the estimation of 94.5. The US New Home Sales rose 1.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 676,000 units in February, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau revealed on Tuesday. The sales pace for January was revised up to a rate of 664,000 units from the previously reported 657,000 units. USD/INR’s bearish outlook remains in play under the 100-day EMA The Indian Rupee softens on the day. The USD/INR pair keeps the bearish vibe, characterized by the price holding below the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average on the daily timeframe. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) moves below the 30.00 mark, indicating oversold conditions and warranting some caution. This suggests that further consolidation or a temporary recovery is on the cards.
The low of January 6 at 85.60 acts as an initial support level for USD/INR. Sustained bearish pressure could drag the pair lower to 84.84, the low of December 19, 2024. Further south, the additional downside filter to watch is 84.22, the low of November 25, 2024.
On the upside, the psychological level and the 100-day EMA in the 85.95-86.00 zone appear to be a tough nut to crack for bulls. A decisive break above this level could set its sights on the next upside targets at 86.48, the low of February 21, en route to 87.00, the round figure. Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
04:45 Japanese Yen erodes a part of Tuesday’s upward move amid positive risk tone
The Japanese Yen (JPY) ticked lower during the Asian session on Wednesday following the release of the Japan Service Producer Price Index (PPI), which eased to the 3.0% YoY rate in February.
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The hawkish outlook was reaffirmed by the January BoJ meeting minutes released on Tuesday, which showed that policymakers discussed the pace of raising interest rates. This marks a big divergence in comparison to the Federal Reserve's (Fed) forecast for two 25-basis-points rate cuts in 2025. The resultant narrowing of the Japan-US rate differential should act as a tailwind for the lower-yielding JPY, which, along with subdued US Dollar (USD) price action, cap the USD/JPY pair. Traders might also opt to wait for the release of the Tokyo CPI and the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index on Friday.
Japanese Yen is undermined by positive risk tone; BoJ rate hike bets should help limit deeper losses The Bank of Japan reported earlier this Wednesday that the Services Producer Price Index (PPI) – a leading indicator of Japan's service-sector inflation – rose 3.0% from a year earlier in February. The reading was slightly below the 3.1% increase in January. On a monthly basis, the index remained flat during the reported month after falling 0.5% in January. Moreover, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated that the central bank will continue to raise interest rates if economic and price developments move in line with forecasts made in the quarterly outlook report. Adding to this, significant wage hikes for the third consecutive year keep alive expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Japanese central bank. In contrast, the Federal Reserve signaled last week that it would deliver two 25-basis-point interest rate cuts by the end of this year. Meanwhile, the Fed gave a bump higher to its inflation projection, though it revised the growth outlook downward amid the growing uncertainty over the impact of US President Donald Trump's aggressive trade policies. Trump is expected to announce so-called retaliatory tariffs – that offset levies on US goods and are set to take effect on April 2 – on about 15 major US trading partners. Furthermore, Trump imposed a secondary tariff on Venezuela and said that any country that buys oil or gas from Venezuela would face a 25% tariff when trading with the US. The increasing pessimism about the US economy led to a sharp downturn in the US Consumer Confidence, which dropped for a fourth straight month in March. The Conference Board's survey further revealed that the Expectations Index fell to 65.2, or the lowest level in 12 years and well below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead. This, in turn, prompted a modest US Dollar pullback from a nearly three-week high touched on Tuesday and weighed heavily on the USD/JPY pair. The USD bulls failed to gain any respite from Fed Governor Adriana Kugler's hawkish remarks, saying that the progress toward returning inflation to the 2% target has slowed since last summer. Several Fed officials are set to speak in the coming days and will play a key role in influencing the USD price dynamics. In the meantime, traders will look to Wednesday's release of US Durable Goods Orders for short-term impetus. The focus, however, remains on the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index on Friday.
USD/JPY needs to find acceptance above the 151.00 mark to support prospects for additional gains
From a technical perspective, this week's breakout above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart was seen as a key trigger for bullish traders. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart have just started gaining positive traction and suggest that the path of least resistance for the USD/JPY pair is to the upside. However, the overnight failure ahead of the 151.00 mark warrants some caution. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for sustained strength and acceptance above the said handle before positioning for an extension of the recent recovery from a multi-month low. The subsequent move-up could lift spot prices beyond the monthly top, around the 151.30 area, towards the 152.00 round figure.
On the flip side, the 149.55 area, or the overnight swing low, now seems to protect the immediate downside, below which the USD/JPY pair could slide to the 149.00 mark en route to the 148.75-148.70 support. The latter coincides with the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, which if broken might shift the bias in favor of bearish traders. Spot prices might then accelerate the fall towards the 148.00 round figure and slide further towards the 147.35-147.30 region before eventually dropping below the 147.00 mark, towards the 146.55-146.50 area, or the multi-month low touched on March 11.
Economic Indicator
Corporate Service Price Index (YoY)
The Corporate Service Price Index (CSPI) released by the Bank of Japan measures the prices of services traded among companies. It presents price developments that reflect most sensitively the supply and demand conditions in the services market. It is also considered as an indicator for inflationary pressures. Normally, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the JPY, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish). Read more. Last release: Tue Mar 25, 2025 23:50 Frequency: MonthlyActual: 3%Consensus: -Previous: 3.1%Source: Bank of Japan
04:35 NZD/USD extends gains to near 0.5750 amid improved risk sentiment, China stimulus hopes
NZD/USD continues its upward momentum for the second consecutive day, trading around 0.5740 during Asian hours on Wednesday.
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Additionally, optimism surrounding potential US tariff exemptions provided some relief to the export-driven NZD. However, uncertainty remains as US President Trump reportedly considers three escalating tariff levels, though some sources suggest this tiered approach is not officially under discussion.
Further bolstering NZD, bullish momentum in New Zealand equities continues following signs of domestic recovery after the country exited the recession in Q4 2024. Government data released last week showed GDP grew 0.7% in the December quarter, surpassing analysts' forecasts of 0.4% and the central bank’s 0.3% projection.
The NZD could also find support from anticipated Chinese stimulus measures aimed at boosting consumption. China’s Communist Party and State Council have proposed initiatives to "vigorously boost consumption" by increasing wages and easing financial burdens, an effort that could benefit New Zealand exports given China’s role as a key trade partner.
However, the Kiwi Dollar may struggle due to expectations of further monetary easing from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). In its February meeting, the central bank signaled two 25-basis-point (bps) rate cuts in April and May, with a potential third later in the year.
Despite NZD strength, the upside for NZD/USD could be limited as the US Dollar (USD) finds support from hawkish remarks by Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler. On Tuesday, Kugler emphasized that the Fed’s interest rate policy remains restrictive and well-positioned. Kugler also noted that progress toward the 2% inflation target has slowed since last summer and described the recent rise in goods inflation as "unhelpful."
New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar?
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar?
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar?
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar?
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
03:39 US Presi. Trump plans to implement copper import tariffs within weeks
US President Donald Trump said in a Newsmax interview on Wednesday that he “plans to implement copper import tariffs within weeks,” per Bloomberg.
US President Donald Trump said in a Newsmax interview on Wednesday that he “plans to implement copper import tariffs within weeks,” per Bloomberg.
Additional quotes
Not many exceptions on April 2 tariffs.
All we're going to do is reciprocal.
I'll likely be more lenient than reciprocal.
03:29 WTI drifts higher above $69.00 on Venezuela supply worries
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $69.15 during the early Asian session on Wednesday.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}WTI price edges higher to $69.15 in Wednesday’s early Asian session.Crude oil stockpiles in the US fell by 4.6 million barrels last week, according to the API.Trump said he will impose tariffs on countries that buy oil and gas from Venezuela.West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $69.15 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The WTI price extends its upside on a larger-than-expected crude draw and concerns about tighter global supply due to threatened US tariffs on countries buying Venezuelan production.
Crude Oil inventories declined larger than expected last week. The American Petroleum Institute (API) weekly report showed crude oil stockpiles in the United States for the week ending March 14 fell by 4.6 million barrels, compared to an increase of 4.593 million barrels in the previous week. The market consensus estimated that stocks would decrease by 2.5 million barrels.
US President Donald Trump said late Monday that he would be placing a 25% tariff on all imports from any country that buys oil or gas from Venezuela, effective April 2, as well as imposing new tariffs on the South American country itself. The fears of tighter global supply lift the WTI price to a three-week high.
On the other hand, the United States reached deals with Ukraine and Russia to pause attacks at sea and against energy targets, with Washington also attempting to ease certain sanctions against Moscow. A maritime and energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine offset concerns about tighter global supply, which might drag the WTI price lower. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Crude Oil inventories declined larger than expected last week. The American Petroleum Institute (API) weekly report showed crude oil stockpiles in the United States for the week ending March 14 fell by 4.6 million barrels, compared to an increase of 4.593 million barrels in the previous week. The market consensus estimated that stocks would decrease by 2.5 million barrels.
US President Donald Trump said late Monday that he would be placing a 25% tariff on all imports from any country that buys oil or gas from Venezuela, effective April 2, as well as imposing new tariffs on the South American country itself. The fears of tighter global supply lift the WTI price to a three-week high.
On the other hand, the United States reached deals with Ukraine and Russia to pause attacks at sea and against energy targets, with Washington also attempting to ease certain sanctions against Moscow. A maritime and energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine offset concerns about tighter global supply, which might drag the WTI price lower. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
03:28 Australian Dollar loses ground following downbeat Monthly CPI
The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges lower against the US Dollar (USD) after Wednesday’s release of the Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI), which rose 2.4% year-over-year in February, slightly below January’s 2.5% increase and market expectations of 2.5%.
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Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers presented the 2025/26 budget on Tuesday, outlining key economic forecasts and tax cuts totaling approximately A$17.1 billion across two rounds. The budget deficit is projected at A$27.6 billion for 2024-25 and A$42.1 billion for 2025-26. GDP growth is expected to reach 2.25% in the fiscal year 2026 and 2.5% in 2027. The tax cuts appear aimed at strengthening political support.
The AUD finds support as investors anticipate the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will keep interest rates unchanged next week, following its first rate cut of 25 basis points in four years this past February. RBA Assistant Governor (Economic) Sarah Hunter reaffirmed the central bank’s cautious stance on further cuts, with February’s policy statement signaling a more conservative approach than market expectations, particularly regarding US policy decisions and their impact on Australia’s inflation outlook.
Additionally, expectations of Chinese stimulus could boost the Australian economy, given strong trade ties between the two nations. China’s Communist Party and State Council have proposed measures to "vigorously boost consumption" by raising wages and easing financial burdens—an effort to restore consumer confidence and revitalize the struggling economy.
Australian Dollar depreciates as US Dollar gains support amid market caution The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, retraces its recent losses from the previous session and is trading around 104.30. The US Dollar gains support as market caution rises ahead of US President Donald Trump's tariff announcement on April 2. While Trump suggested that "a lot" of countries could receive exemptions, the specifics of his administration’s tariff strategy remain uncertain. On Wednesday, the Toronto Star cited sources indicating that Canada might face lower-end tariffs in the upcoming measures. However, nothing is guaranteed. Trump is reportedly considering three escalating tariff levels, though some sources suggest this tiered approach is not officially on the table. Nonetheless, it aligns with the government’s expectations for what may unfold next week. The S&P Global reported on Monday that the US Composite PMI climbed to 53.5 in March, up from February's 10-month low of 51.6, signaling the strongest growth since December 2024. Services PMI surged to 54.3 in March, a three-month high, from 51.0 in February. Meanwhile, the Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.8 from 52.7, falling short of market expectations of 51.8. Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Adriana Kugler stated on Tuesday that the central bank’s interest rate policy remains restrictive and appropriately positioned. However, she acknowledged that progress toward the 2% inflation target has slowed since last summer and described the recent rise in goods inflation as "unhelpful." Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic emphasized ongoing uncertainty on Monday, stating that inflation progress may be slower than previously projected. Bostic trimmed his 2025 rate cut expectations, citing persistent price pressure and trade-related risks. On Monday, Australia’s Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI climbed to 52.6 in March from 50.4 in February, while the Services PMI improved to 51.2 from 50.8. The Composite PMI also increased, reaching 51.3 in March compared to 50.6 previously.
Australian Dollar pulls back from 0.6300 barrier near nine-day EMA
The AUD/USD pair is trading near 0.6280 on Wednesday, with technical indicators signaling a bearish bias as the pair consolidates within a descending channel. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains slightly below 50, reinforcing the persistent downward momentum.
On the downside, the AUD/USD pair could navigate the region around the lower boundary of the descending channel at 0.6210, followed by the seven-week low of 0.6187, recorded on March 5.
The nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6306, aligned with the descending channel’s upper boundary, acts as the immediate barrier. A breakout above this crucial resistance zone could weaken the bearish bias, with the pair potentially testing the monthly high at 0.6391, which reached March 18.
AUD/USD: Daily Chart
Australian Dollar PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.06% 0.07% 0.26% 0.06% 0.15% 0.11% 0.06% EUR -0.06% 0.00% 0.16% -0.00% 0.10% 0.04% -0.01% GBP -0.07% -0.00% 0.19% -0.01% 0.09% 0.02% 0.02% JPY -0.26% -0.16% -0.19% -0.18% -0.12% -0.15% -0.17% CAD -0.06% 0.00% 0.00% 0.18% 0.12% 0.04% 0.03% AUD -0.15% -0.10% -0.09% 0.12% -0.12% -0.05% -0.08% NZD -0.11% -0.04% -0.02% 0.15% -0.04% 0.05% -0.03% CHF -0.06% 0.00% -0.02% 0.17% -0.03% 0.08% 0.03%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
Economic Indicator
Monthly Consumer Price Index (YoY)
The Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on a monthly basis, measures the changes in the price of a fixed basket of goods and services acquired by household consumers. The indicator was developed to provide inflation data at a higher frequency than the quarterly CPI. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. A high reading is seen as bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Wed Mar 26, 2025 00:30 Frequency: MonthlyActual: 2.4%Consensus: 2.5%Previous: 2.5%Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
03:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1754 vs. 7.1788 previous
On Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1754 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1788 and 7.2559 Reuters estimate.
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On Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1754 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1788 and 7.2559 Reuters estimate.
PBOC FAQs What does the People's Bank of China do?
The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market. Who owns the PBoC?
The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts. What are the main policy tools used by the PBoC?
Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi. Are private banks allowed in China?
Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
03:08 BoJ’s Ueda says to keep raising interest rates if economy on track
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said early Wednesday that the Japanese central bank will continue to raise interest rates if economic and price developments move in line with its projections, per Reuters.
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Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said early Wednesday that the Japanese central bank will continue to raise interest rates if economic and price developments move in line with its projections, per Reuters.
Key quotes
Japan’s economy is recovering moderately, albeit with some weaknesses.
Japan’s economy is likely to continue growing above potential.
Expect underlying inflation to accelerate gradually.
Uncertainty surrounding Japan’s economy, prices remain high.
Expect to keep raising interest rates if the economy, prices move in line with our forecasts made in the quarterly outlook report.
Japan’s real interest rate level remains extremely low.
Recent high inflation is due largely to the lagged effect of past rises in import costs, recent acceleration in food price rises.
Such cost-push factors are likely to gradually dissipate.
Underlying inflation is likely to gradually converge towards our 2% target even when a temporary boost from food inflation disappears.
There is uncertainty on whether food, rice prices will fall but on a year-on-year basis, the pace of increase likely to slow ahead.
Underlying inflation is still somewhat below 2%.
We have yet to sufficiently achieve our price target.
Market reaction
At the time of press, the USD/CAD pair was up 0.07% on the day at 150.15.
Bank of Japan FAQs What is the Bank of Japan?
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%. What has been the Bank of Japan’s policy?
The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance. How do Bank of Japan’s decisions influence the Japanese Yen?
The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance. Why did the Bank of Japan decide to start unwinding its ultra-loose policy?
A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
02:53 United States API Weekly Crude Oil Stock dipped from previous 4.593M to -4.6M in March 21
United States API Weekly Crude Oil Stock dipped from previous 4.593M to -4.6M in March 21
02:34 Australia’s monthly CPI inflation eases to 2.4% YoY in February vs. 2.5% expected
Australia’s monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.4% in the year to February, compared to a 2.5% rise seen in January, according to the data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Wednesday.
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Australia’s monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.4% in the year to February, compared to a 2.5% rise seen in January, according to the data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Wednesday.
The market forecast was for 2.5% growth in the reported period. Market reaction to Australia’s monthly CPI inflation At the time of writing, the AUD/USD pair is trading 0.07% higher on the day to trade at 0.6304. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
The market forecast was for 2.5% growth in the reported period. Market reaction to Australia’s monthly CPI inflation At the time of writing, the AUD/USD pair is trading 0.07% higher on the day to trade at 0.6304. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
02:27 US President Donald Trump may impose escalating tariff levels, Canada could be on the lower end of tariffs
Citing sources, the Toronto Star reported on Wednesday that Canada could be on the lower end of the April 2 tariffs.
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Citing sources, the Toronto Star reported on Wednesday that Canada could be on the lower end of the April 2 tariffs.
Key quotes
Nothing is guaranteed.
Trump may impose three escalating levels of tariffs.
Despite a recent news report, the tiered approach is not on the table, the sources said it aligns with the government’s understanding of what’s about to hit next week.
Countries would, in fact, be put into low, medium or high levels.
It's not clear what those tariff levels would be. Market reaction At the time of press, the USD/CAD pair was down 0.05% on the day at 1.4275. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
Trump may impose three escalating levels of tariffs.
Despite a recent news report, the tiered approach is not on the table, the sources said it aligns with the government’s understanding of what’s about to hit next week.
Countries would, in fact, be put into low, medium or high levels.
It's not clear what those tariff levels would be. Market reaction At the time of press, the USD/CAD pair was down 0.05% on the day at 1.4275. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
01:51 Japan Corporate Service Price Index (YoY) down to 3% in February from previous 3.1%
Japan Corporate Service Price Index (YoY) down to 3% in February from previous 3.1%
01:38 ECB's Villeroy: There is still scope for further policy easing, the extent is up for debate
Member of the European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council and Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau said late Tuesday that there is still room to lower interest rates further, and the 2.5% deposit rate could fall to 2% by the end of the summer, per Reuters.
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Member of the European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council and Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau said late Tuesday that there is still room to lower interest rates further, and the 2.5% deposit rate could fall to 2% by the end of the summer, per Reuters.
Key quotes
I believe there is still scope for further easing. However, the pace and extent remain open.
Seen from today, markets expect an ECB interest rate of around 2% in the summer.
It is a possible scenario, considering that summer in Europe lasts from June till September.
All other things being equal, this rise in long term yields means a tightening of financial conditions, which we have to incorporate in our monetary assessment. Market reaction At the time of press, the EUR/USD pair was up 0.18% on the day at 1.0787. ECB FAQs What is the ECB and how does it influence the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Euro? In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Euro? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
Seen from today, markets expect an ECB interest rate of around 2% in the summer.
It is a possible scenario, considering that summer in Europe lasts from June till September.
All other things being equal, this rise in long term yields means a tightening of financial conditions, which we have to incorporate in our monetary assessment. Market reaction At the time of press, the EUR/USD pair was up 0.18% on the day at 1.0787. ECB FAQs What is the ECB and how does it influence the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Euro? In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Euro? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
01:32 EUR/USD continues to backslide, but short pressure beginning to ease
EUR/USD has slowed its recent pace of declines, but still lost ground for a fifth consecutive trading day as price action continues to test below 1.0800.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD marked in a fifth straight down day on Tuesday.Market headlines take US data misfire in stride.US Durable Goods Orders due on Wednesday as Euro traders left to wait.EUR/USD has slowed its recent pace of declines, but still lost ground for a fifth consecutive trading day as price action continues to test below 1.0800. The Euro is struggling to find its feet as a notable lack of meaningful EU data on the economic docket leaves Fiber bidders at the mercy of geopolitical headlines and market flows from US data releases.
On Tuesday, the US Conference Board (CB) reported an increase in one-year consumer inflation expectations, rising to 6.2% in March from 5.8% in February. Consumers remain highly concerned about the persistently high prices of essential household items, particularly eggs, and the potential inflationary impacts of tariffs imposed during the Trump administration. Furthermore, the CB’s consumer confidence survey revealed a drop in future economic expectations, plummeting to a new 12-year low of 65.2 in March, significantly below the 80.0 mark that typically signals a possible recession.
Adding to these concerns, Moody’s ratings agency issued a strong warning early Tuesday, highlighting a “deterioration” in the US’s fiscal strength, particularly regarding the increasing challenges of servicing US debt. Moody’s also projected that the country’s fiscal strength is likely to face a prolonged decline, a statement likely to anger Donald Trump and his administration, who are currently advocating for a substantial increase in the debt ceiling from Congress.
In US economic news, Durable Goods Orders are set to be released during the New York market session. Overall, these orders are anticipated to decrease by -1.0% in February, following a solid rebound of 3.2% in January.
EUR/USD price forecast
A steady five-day drop has pushed EUR/USD back below the 1.0800 handle, and the pair could be poised for a furthe backslide into the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.0675. A near-term turnaround has dragged Fiber back down after a bullish push to the 1.0950 technical level fizzled out, and EUR/USD now has a fresh technical ceiling to contend with if bidders are able to get their ship keel-side down once more.
EUR/USD daily chart
Euro FAQs What is the Euro?
The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro?
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro?
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro?
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro?
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
01:23 GBP/USD coils ahead of key UK CPI inflation print
GBP/USD continues to wear worry lines into the charts near the 1.3000 handle as Cable traders draw into the midrange after a near-term bullish recovery lost steam.
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The US Conference Board (CB) reported a further increase in one-year consumer inflation expectations on Tuesday, now at 6.2% in March compared to 5.8% in February. Consumers continue to express significant concern regarding the persistently high prices of essential household items, such as eggs, along with worries about potential inflation consequences tied to tariffs from the Trump administration. Additionally, the CB’s consumer confidence survey for future economic expectations has dropped to a new 12-year low in March, recording a figure of 65.2, which is substantially below the 80.0 threshold that often indicates a potential recession.
Compounding these issues, Moody’s ratings agency issued a stark warning early Tuesday, stating that the US’s fiscal strength has “deteriorated,” particularly emphasizing the growing issues with the affordability of US debt servicing. Furthermore, Moody’s indicated that the fiscal strength of the US is on course for a multi-year decline, a remark that is likely to provoke dissatisfaction from Donald Trump and his administration, who are presently seeking a significant increase in the debt limit from Congress.
UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figures are due early Wednesday, which could stoke GBP volumes. Median market forecasts are expecting annualized headline CPI inflation to tick down to 2.9% YoY versus the previous print of 3.0%, however the monthly figure is expected to accelerate to 0.5% MoM in February. January’s monthly CPI print initially contracted by 0.1%, and traders will be keeping a close eye out for any heavy revisions to recent data.
On the US side, Durable Goods Orders are due during the New York market session. Overall Durable Goods Orders are expected to decline in February, forecast to come in at -1.0% after January’s firm 3.2% rebound.
GBP/USD price forecast
GBP/USD continues to find room to play as price action remains locked in a near-term sideways grind between 1.3000 and 1.2900. Bids remain unable to find traction on either side of the rough congestion pattern, though Cable bulls will be able to find some room to breathe as intraday momentum remains firmly above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.2700.
GBP/USD daily chart
Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling?
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling?
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound?
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound?
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
01:13 USD/CAD holds steady above 1.4250 on tariff and election uncertainty
The USD/CAD pair flat lines around 1.4275 during the late American session on Tuesday.
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With Canadian elections approaching, the ruling Liberal Party and the official opposition Conservatives were effectively tied in polls conducted just before the campaign started on Sunday.
Analysts from Bannockburn Global Forex noted the impact of the election outcome and potential US tariffs, particularly after US President Donald Trump signaled that automobile tariffs are coming soon, while hinting that not all of his threatened levies would be imposed on April 2 and some countries may get breaks. Tariff and election uncertainty are likely to undermine the CAD in the near term.
On the other hand, a rise in Crude Oil prices might lift the commodity-linked Loonie and act as a headwind for USD/CAD. It’s worth noting that Canada is the largest oil exporter to the United States (US), and higher crude oil prices tend to have a positive impact on the CAD value.
On the USD’s front, speculation of an economic slowdown in the US economy could drag the Greenback lower. “The narrative seems to be shifting more toward the fact that tariffs are going to impact growth more than inflation,” said Vinny Bleau, director of fixed-income capital markets at Raymond James in Memphis, Tennessee. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
With Canadian elections approaching, the ruling Liberal Party and the official opposition Conservatives were effectively tied in polls conducted just before the campaign started on Sunday.
Analysts from Bannockburn Global Forex noted the impact of the election outcome and potential US tariffs, particularly after US President Donald Trump signaled that automobile tariffs are coming soon, while hinting that not all of his threatened levies would be imposed on April 2 and some countries may get breaks. Tariff and election uncertainty are likely to undermine the CAD in the near term.
On the other hand, a rise in Crude Oil prices might lift the commodity-linked Loonie and act as a headwind for USD/CAD. It’s worth noting that Canada is the largest oil exporter to the United States (US), and higher crude oil prices tend to have a positive impact on the CAD value.
On the USD’s front, speculation of an economic slowdown in the US economy could drag the Greenback lower. “The narrative seems to be shifting more toward the fact that tariffs are going to impact growth more than inflation,” said Vinny Bleau, director of fixed-income capital markets at Raymond James in Memphis, Tennessee. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
00:46 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD soars over 2% on stagflation woes igniting safe-haven demand
Silver price soared on Tuesday, registering gains of over 2.10%, as a weaker US Dollar could not cap the metal’s advance amid increased fears of a stagflationary scenario, following a Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence poll.
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XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
On Monday, I wrote, “Silver price formed a ‘quasi gravestone doji’ that usually appears in an uptrend, signifying a pause or end of the trend. Nevertheless, as it is preceded by a downtrend, it might indicate that bears had lost steam while buyers stepped in near the day's lows of $32.89.” That’s what happened.
Bulls moved as a stampede and drove the precious metal higher, capitalizing on falling US yields, clearing the $33.00 and $33.50 psychological figures on its way to current spot prices. Should Silver continue to find acceptance higher, the XAG/USD could reach the March 20 peak of $33.94, ahead of testing the $34.00 figure. If surpassed, the next stop would be last October’s monthly peak at $34.86.
Conversely, if XAG/USD slips beneath $33.00, immediate support emerges at the March 21 low of $32.66. Once hurdled, the next stop is the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $32.04.
XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily
Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver?
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices?
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices?
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves?
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
00:09 USD/JPY Price Forecast: Slips below 150.00 on USD weakness
The USD/JPY trimmed some of Monday’s gains, losing over 0.53% on Tuesday and dropping below the 150.00 figure as the US dollar weakened across the board.
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USD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook
USD/JPY made a U-turn on Tuesday, achieving a daily close below 150.00, which opened the door to hit a daily low of 149.55, slightly above the confluence of the Tenkan and Kijun-sen near 149.35/42. As price action stood below the Ichimoku Cloud (Kumo), the downtrend has resumed, but a decisive break below the 149.35/42 range could open the door to challenge the March 20 swing low of 148.18.
On the other hand, buyers reclaiming 150.00, the USD/JPY could be poised to test weekly highs of 150.94, which, if surpassed, could pave the way to test the confluence of the 50-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at 151.53/72.
USD/JPY Price Chart – Daily
Japanese Yen PRICE This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies this week. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Euro. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.24% -0.23% 0.40% -0.55% -0.50% -0.02% -0.07% EUR -0.24% -0.58% -0.36% -0.74% -0.75% -0.21% -0.27% GBP 0.23% 0.58% 0.64% -0.79% -0.21% 0.37% 0.20% JPY -0.40% 0.36% -0.64% -0.95% -0.93% -0.41% -0.49% CAD 0.55% 0.74% 0.79% 0.95% 0.10% 0.53% 0.47% AUD 0.50% 0.75% 0.21% 0.93% -0.10% 0.55% 0.49% NZD 0.02% 0.21% -0.37% 0.41% -0.53% -0.55% 0.01% CHF 0.07% 0.27% -0.20% 0.49% -0.47% -0.49% -0.01%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
00:02 South Korea BOK Manufacturing BSI climbed from previous 65 to 68 in April
South Korea BOK Manufacturing BSI climbed from previous 65 to 68 in April
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การเตือนความเสี่ยง: การเทรดมีความเสี่ยง เงินทุนของคุณมีความเสี่ยง Exinity Limited มีการกำกับดูแลโดย FSC (มอริเชียส)
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