ไทม์ไลน์ข่าวสาร forex
02:14 NZD/USD rises as tariff confusion weighs on US Dollar
NZD/USD rose 0.52% on Wednesday, climbing back into the 0.6000 handle after the US Dollar came under broad selling pressure.
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New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
02:00 New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence dipped from previous 64.1 to 59.2 in February
New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence dipped from previous 64.1 to 59.2 in February
01:52 US Secretary of State Rubio: Iranian insistence on not discussing ballistic missiles is big problem
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Thursday that Iran poses a very grave threat to the United States and has for a very long time. Rubio added that talks Thursday will focus on the nuclear programme.
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US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Thursday that Iran poses a very grave threat to the United States and has for a very long time. Rubio added that talks Thursday will focus on the nuclear programme.Key quotesIran poses a very grave threat to the United States and has for a very long time.
Iran is not enriching currently but they are trying to reach the point where they ultimately can.
Iran talks on Thursday will primarily focus on the nuclear program.
Iran poses conventional weapons designed to attack America.
Iran is attempting to develop intercontinental ballistic missiles.
Do not think diplomacy is ever off the table.
Would not characterize Thursday talks as anything other than the next opportunity to talk.
Status quo in Cuba is unsustainable.
Cuba needs to change dramatically.
Iranian insistence on not discussing ballistic missiles is a very big problem.Market reactionAt the time of writing, the Gold price (XAU/USD) is trading 0.05% higher on the day to trade at $5,167. Meanwhile, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is down 1.01% on the day at $65.60. Risk sentiment FAQs What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets? In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
Iran is not enriching currently but they are trying to reach the point where they ultimately can.
Iran talks on Thursday will primarily focus on the nuclear program.
Iran poses conventional weapons designed to attack America.
Iran is attempting to develop intercontinental ballistic missiles.
Do not think diplomacy is ever off the table.
Would not characterize Thursday talks as anything other than the next opportunity to talk.
Status quo in Cuba is unsustainable.
Cuba needs to change dramatically.
Iranian insistence on not discussing ballistic missiles is a very big problem.Market reactionAt the time of writing, the Gold price (XAU/USD) is trading 0.05% higher on the day to trade at $5,167. Meanwhile, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is down 1.01% on the day at $65.60. Risk sentiment FAQs What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets? In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
01:42 USD/CNY: Gradual decline toward 6.7 – TD Securities
TD Securities strategists expect Chinese authorities to keep USD/CNY volatility low through the 2026 Two Sessions, while not resisting Chinese Yuan strength.
TD Securities strategists expect Chinese authorities to keep USD/CNY volatility low through the 2026 Two Sessions, while not resisting Chinese Yuan strength. They project a gradual decline in USDCNY to 6.7 by year-end 2026, in line with broad US Dollar weakness, and flag potential post-event tweaks to FX policy tools to temper excessive CNY gains.PBoC seen tolerating stronger Chinese Yuan"Authorities are likely to ensure volatility in USDCNY is kept to a minimum during China's most important political event of the year.""We still believe the PBoC isn't fighting against CNY appreciation and would allow a gradual decline in USDCNY to 6.7 by year-end, tracking broad USD weakness.""Judging by the pace of appreciation in the CNY, however, it seems like our year-end forecast of 6.7 in USDCNY could be reached by mid-2026.""As such, we may see the PBoC tweak structural FX parameters to slow the gains in USDCNY after the Two Sessions conclude on 11 March."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
01:39 IMF’s Georgieva: US goods inflation has been somewhat affected by tariffs
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Wednesday that goods US inflation has been somewhat affected by tariffs.
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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Wednesday that goods US inflation has been somewhat affected by tariffs.Key quotesGoods US inflation has been somewhat affected by tariffs.
Bringing down the federal funds rate to 3.25% and 3.5% consistent with United States economy returning to full employment.
Putting US public debt on downward path will require determined actions.
We share Trump administration concern about growing United States trade and current account deficits.
We have not opined on Supreme Court decision to strike down some of Trump's tariffs.
We will digest implications of court decision and incorporate into full U.S. Article IV report.
U.S. average tariff rate is now about 10 percent compared with estimates of up to 25 percent in April 2025.
United States remains attractive to financial flows from other countries
U.S. is in a position to fund its spending but deficits need to come down in medium term. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
Bringing down the federal funds rate to 3.25% and 3.5% consistent with United States economy returning to full employment.
Putting US public debt on downward path will require determined actions.
We share Trump administration concern about growing United States trade and current account deficits.
We have not opined on Supreme Court decision to strike down some of Trump's tariffs.
We will digest implications of court decision and incorporate into full U.S. Article IV report.
U.S. average tariff rate is now about 10 percent compared with estimates of up to 25 percent in April 2025.
United States remains attractive to financial flows from other countries
U.S. is in a position to fund its spending but deficits need to come down in medium term. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
01:29 BoJ’s Ueda says rate hikes to continue if outlook materializes
Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Thursday that the the basic stance is to continue raising interest rates if the likelihood of our economic, price forecasts materialising heightens.
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Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Thursday that the the basic stance is to continue raising interest rates if the likelihood of our economic, price forecasts materialising heightens. Key quotesOur basic stance is to continue raising interest rates if the likelihood of our economic, price forecasts materialising heightens.
Underlying inflation has yet to fully hit 2%, will guide policy so underlying inflation hits 2% or we avoid it from exceeding 2% on sustained basis.
We do not think we are behind the curve in addressing risk of too-high inflation.
No change from January to our projected timing for hitting price target, expect inflation to re-accelerate from current slowdown.
If the outcome of Spring wage talks are stronger than expected and prod firms to pass on costs swiftly, there is chance we could achieve price target sooner than expected.
April Tankan is important piece of information but we are conducting various surveys, so it is not as if we must wait until Tankan's release to have sufficient data.
Bank of Japan will hold policy meetings in March and April, will scrutinize information available by then and reach decision, when asked about growing market views Bank of Japan could hike rates in April.
Do not expect significant impact from new Trump tariffs on Japan's economy but watching developments carefully.
Important for government and parliament to ensure market trust in Japan's medium to long term fiscal health. Market reactionAs of writing, the USD/JPY pair is up 0.20% on the day at 156.20. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
Underlying inflation has yet to fully hit 2%, will guide policy so underlying inflation hits 2% or we avoid it from exceeding 2% on sustained basis.
We do not think we are behind the curve in addressing risk of too-high inflation.
No change from January to our projected timing for hitting price target, expect inflation to re-accelerate from current slowdown.
If the outcome of Spring wage talks are stronger than expected and prod firms to pass on costs swiftly, there is chance we could achieve price target sooner than expected.
April Tankan is important piece of information but we are conducting various surveys, so it is not as if we must wait until Tankan's release to have sufficient data.
Bank of Japan will hold policy meetings in March and April, will scrutinize information available by then and reach decision, when asked about growing market views Bank of Japan could hike rates in April.
Do not expect significant impact from new Trump tariffs on Japan's economy but watching developments carefully.
Important for government and parliament to ensure market trust in Japan's medium to long term fiscal health. Market reactionAs of writing, the USD/JPY pair is up 0.20% on the day at 156.20. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
01:14 Gold gains above $5,150 as US tariff uncertainty drive demand, eyes on US-Iran talks
Gold price (XAU/USD) trades with mild gains near $5,165 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The rally of the precious metal is bolstered by escalating geopolitical tensions between the United States (US) and Iran and ongoing uncertainty regarding US tariff policies.
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Traders will closely monitor the US-Iran nuclear talks on Thursday in Geneva. The US trade representative said US tariffs could rise to 15% or more after the Supreme Court ruling. Gold price (XAU/USD) trades with mild gains near $5,165 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The rally of the precious metal is bolstered by escalating geopolitical tensions between the United States (US) and Iran and ongoing uncertainty regarding US tariff policies. All eyes will be on the US Producer Price Index (PPI) report for January, which is due on Friday. US President Donald Trump last week threatened to attack Iran if negotiations fail. Meanwhile, tens of thousands of US service members are at risk after Iran said that all US military bases in the Mideast would be considered legitimate targets. Fears that an attack could spiral into a new regional war could boost a traditional safe-haven asset such as Gold.Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding the US-Iran talks. Two countries are expected to meet for a further round of talks in Geneva on Thursday.The US trade representative, Jamieson Greer, said on Wednesday that the US tariff rate for some countries will go up to 15% or higher from the newly imposed 10% without naming any specific trading partners or other details.Trump suffered a defeat at the hands of the US Supreme Court last week, which struck down his sweeping “liberation day” tariffs imposed last year. But in response, Donald Trump announced imposing a 10% global tariff and raising the level to 15%. US tariff uncertainty might contribute to the yellow metal’s upside. The attention will shift to the US January PPI data on Friday, as it could offer more clues about the US interest rate path. The headline PPI is expected to show an increase of 2.6% YoY in January, while the core PPI is projected to show a rise of 3.0% during the same period. Any signs of hotter inflation in the US could lift the US Dollar (USD) and weigh on the USD-denominated commodity price in the near term. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
00:58 USD/THB: BOT cut tempers Baht strength – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad reports USD/THB has bounced from key support at 31.00 after the Bank of Thailand unexpectedly delivered a second consecutive 25 bps rate cut to 1.00%.
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad reports USD/THB has bounced from key support at 31.00 after the Bank of Thailand unexpectedly delivered a second consecutive 25 bps rate cut to 1.00%. While policymakers voiced concern about Baht appreciation and exporters’ conditions, BBH notes Thailand’s positive real rates and solid external backdrop still support an underlying THB uptrend.Surprise easing but THB trend intact"USD/THB bounced off key support at 31.00. Bank of Thailand (BOT) unexpectedly delivered a back-to-back 25bps policy rate cut to 1.00% (no change was expected). The BOT Committee voted 4 to 2 to cut the policy rate by 25bps. Two members voted to maintain the policy rate at 1.25%.""Importantly, the Committee expressed “concern over signs of exchange rate misalignment from economic fundamentals,” adding that the “appreciation of Thai baht has tightened financial conditions for exporters, particularly for products facing intense price competition and low profit margins”. Nevertheless, Thailand’s relatively high positive real rates and favorable balance of payments backdrop continue to underpin the uptrend in THB."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
00:22 AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Skyrockets past 111.00 on hot Aussie CPI
The AUD/JPY rallies over 1.20% on Wednesday, after an inflation report in Australia prompted investors to price additional rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). At the time of writing, the cross trades at 111.38.
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At the time of writing, the cross trades at 111.38.AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlookFrom the technical standpoint, the AUD/JPY looks bullish after clearing previous yearly high of 110.79 and clearing the 111.00 milestone. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that bulls are gathering steam as the index cleared the 70 — usually seen as an overbought level, but due to the strength of the trend, the most extreme area sought by traders would be the 80 mark.If AUD/JPY clears the yearly high of 111.47, this clears the path to test the 112.00 mark. The Average True Range (ATR) is 111 pips. Hence, if the cross finishes the session at current levels, if the ATR fulfills, the next key resistance is 112.49, followed by the 113.00 milestone.Should the AUD/JPY retreats below 111.00 it opens the door to test the February 10 cycle high of 110.67, followed by the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 109.34. On further weakness, the next stop would be a key support trendline drawn from November 2025 lows, at around 108.00.AUD/JPY Price Chart – DailyAUD/JPY Daily Chart Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
00:17 China: Two Sessions set 2026 growth path – TD Securities
TD Securities analysts expect Premier Li to unveil a 4.5–5.0% GDP target range for 2026 at the Two Sessions, alongside a broad budget deficit near 9% of GDP. Policymakers are seen prioritizing domestic demand, with continued targeted consumer stimulus.
TD Securities analysts expect Premier Li to unveil a 4.5–5.0% GDP target range for 2026 at the Two Sessions, alongside a broad budget deficit near 9% of GDP. Policymakers are seen prioritizing domestic demand, with continued targeted consumer stimulus.Domestic demand at policy forefront"Premier Li is likely to announce a 4.5-5.0% GDP target range for 2026 and a broad budget deficit equivalent to 9% of GDP, retaining an accommodative fiscal stance.""In 2026, we expect policymakers to formulate and implement policies with a focus on boosting domestic demand.""Boosting domestic demand would encompass both consumption-led and investment-focused policies, especially given the slump in Fixed-Asset Investment (FAI) in the H2'25.""Policymakers see the need to diversify its economic engine towards consumption, albeit at a gradual pace.""We expect the targeted consumer stimulus, consumer trade-in program, to continue in 2026."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
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