Forex News Timeline

22:25 Mexican Peso surges as Trump-Sheinbaum call eases trade tensions
The Mexican Peso rallied against the US Dollar on Thursday after US President Donald Trump and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum held a phone call that both said was “very productive.” This and a weaker Greenback sent the USD/MXN drifting lower, exchanging hands at 19.69, down 1.14%.

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Although Mexico’s economic docket remained absent this week, it will gather traction next week with the release of Retail Sales, mid-month inflation for April, and Economic Activity data.So far, Mexico has dodged additional tariffs that have already been imposed since March 4, when Trump enacted duties of 25% on most imports, including steel, aluminum, cars and auto parts. On April 14, the White House decided to apply 21% tariffs on tomatoes.Across the border, US President Trump complained about US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell, saying that the Fed is “too late” on slashing rates due to decreased oil and grocery prices.US jobs data and Building Permits fared better than expected. On the contrary, Housing Starts plunged, indicating that housing construction is slowing down.In the docket, Mexico will feature Retail Sales, mid-month inflation for April, and economic activity for February until next week.Daily digest market movers: Mexican Peso advances amid absent economic docketAs Governor Victoria Rodriguez Ceja said, Banco de Mexico (Banxico) is ready to continue easing policy. However, a slowdown in Retail Sales and softer inflation figures would justify Banxico’s 50-basis-point interest rate cut at the May meeting.Mexico’s Economic Activity indicator, which displays monthly growth figures, would further confirm Banxico’s decision. In January, activity contracted by -0.2% on a monthly basis and -0.1% on an annual basis.If the data comes in softer, Banxico could reduce rates as expected, cutting the interest rate differential between Mexico and the US. Although it should be positive for the US dollar, sending the USD/MXN to a rally, uncertainty on the markets, and traders ditching the US Dollar could cap the exotic pair’s upside.US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending April 12 were 215K, down from 224K and below the 225K forecast — an encouraging sign for the labor market.US Building Permits rose 1.6%, from 1.459 million to 1.482 million, beating expectations of 1.45 million. However, Housing Starts disappointed, dropping sharply from 1.494 million to 1.324 million, signaling weakness in residential construction activity.Money market players had priced in 86 bps of Fed easing toward the end of 2025. The first cut is expected in July.USD/MXN technical outlook: Mexican Peso rallies as USD/MXN tumbles below 200-day SMAThe USD/MXN uptrend is questionable with sellers sending the pair drifting below the 20.00 figure and clearing the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 19.87. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) turned bearish, so a further confirmation of a daily close beneath the 200-day SMA would pave the way to challenge 19.50. In that outcome, the following support would be the 19.00 figure.Conversely, if buyers push the USD/MXN exchange rate above 20.00, this could open the door to test the April 14 high of 20.29, which would open the door to the 50-day and 100-day SMA confluence near 20.29–20.35, followed by the 20.50 resistance.
Mexican Peso FAQs What key factors drive the Mexican Peso? The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity. How do decisions of the Banxico impact the Mexican Peso? The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. How does economic data influence the value of the Mexican Peso? Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Mexican Peso? As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

20:54 Forex Today: Japanese CPI data will take centre stage on Good Friday
The Greenback grabbed some much-needed oxygen on Maundy Thursday despite alternating risk appetite trends.

The Greenback grabbed some much-needed oxygen on Maundy Thursday despite alternating risk appetite trends. In addition, investors shifted their attention to another round of the Trump-Powell effervescence after Trump urged the Fed to slash interest rates and said Chair Powell should be removed as soon as possible, repeating past threats to fire him. The comments came a day after Powell emphasised the Fed’s independence in a speech.Here is what you need to know on Friday, April 18: The US Dollar Index (DXY) posted decent gains on Thursday, although it maintained its business in the lower end of the recent range near three-year lows. The Fed’s Daly is due to speak amid the widespread inactivity in the global markets on Good Friday.Unlike its risk-linked peers, EUR/USD traded with noticeable losses despite briefly surpassing the 1.1400 barrier earlier in the day. The European Commission (EC) will publish its preliminary Consumer Confidence gauge on April 22.GBP/USD kept its march north well and sound for yet another day, although gains appeared capped by the vicinity of 1.3270. Public Sector Net Borrowing figures will be next on the UK calendar on April 22.After bottoming out around 141.60, USD/JPY managed to regain balance and advance past the 142.00 hurdle, up modestly for the day. The Japanese Inflation Rate will be the only release on the docket.AUD/USD ended the day with modest gains around the 0.6380-0.6390 band, clinching its seventh daily advance in a row. The flash S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs are due on April 23.Fresh sanctions on Iranian crude oil exports and renewed supply concerns motivated prices of WTI to climb just above the $64.00 mark per barrel, reaching new two-week highs.Prices of Gold came under fresh selling pressure on Thursday, slipping back below the $3,300 mark per troy ounce on the back of a better tone in the risk-related assets. Silver prices followed suit and flirted with three-day troughs near the $32.00 mark per ounce.

20:13 Dow Jones crashes over 500 points as UnitedHealth tanks, Trump slams Powell for delayed cuts
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) on Thursday plunged over 500 points, or over 1.30%, and UnitedHealth Group (UNH) shares nosedived 23% following an earnings miss and a pessimistic full-year outlook.

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The DJIA fell below the 39,500 mark, while US President Donald Trump's anger at Fed Chair Jerome Powell reignited following Powell's speech in Chicago.DJIA drops below 39,500 after UNH earnings shock; Powell’s stagflation warning and Trump’s Fed critique shake sentimentTrump commented that the Fed should have lowered rates as oil, groceries and egg prices are moving down. He praised the European Central Bank's (ECB) earlier decision to cut rates but added that the Fed is “too late” to ease policy.On Wednesday, Fed Chair Powell adopted a cautious stance saying the focus is inflation. Nevertheless, he acknowledged that balancing dual mandates is becoming difficult, suggesting that a stagflationary scenario looms in which prices rise even though economic growth stalls.Read more: UnitedHealth stock caves 22% as its cuts full-year guidanceThe US jobs market remains solid following the Initial Jobless Claims report for April 12. Meanwhile, housing data was mixed, with Building Permits showing that plans for building houses increased, while Housing Starts showed that home construction is slowing down.Meanwhile, President Trump said he is very confident about a trade deal with the European Union (EU) and China.Meanwhile, recent data suggested that traders see a 9% chance of a Fed rate cut at the May meeting. Therefore, US equities remain subject to trade tensions and geopolitical shocks.Dow Jones price forecastThe Dow Jones remains bearishly biased, with the index falling below the 39,000 mark for the first time in five trading days. Nevertheless, bulls remain stubborn and lifted the index above the 39,000 figure, which could pave the way for some consolidation within the 39,000–40,000 mark.If bulls push the Dow above 39,984, this would turn the index positive and pave the way to test 40,000. A breach of the latter clears the path toward 40,500, followed by the next key resistance at the April 1 high at 40,909 and 41,000.On the downside, a drop below 39,000 means traders will target the April 10 daily low of 38,431. Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.

18:34 GBP/USD hold steady near 1.3250 after mixed US economic data
The Pound Sterling remained steady against the US Dollar on Thursday after US economic data suggested that the labor market remains solid, while housing data was mixed. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD trades at 1.32505 up 0.11%.

17:36 USD/CAD gives up intraday gains as USD’s recovery trims
The USD/CAD pair surrenders its intraday gains and falls back to near 1.3860 during North American trading hours on Thursday.

17:30 United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change came in at 16B below forecasts (24B) in April 11
United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change came in at 16B below forecasts (24B) in April 11

17:00 United States Business Inventories dipped from previous 0.3% to 0.2% in February
United States Business Inventories dipped from previous 0.3% to 0.2% in February

16:44 JPY tumbles on trade data – Scotiabank
Japanese Yen (JPY) is weak, down 0.5% vs. the US Dollar (USD) and underperforming all the G10 currencies along with its haven peer Swiss Franc (CHF).

Japanese Yen (JPY) is weak, down 0.5% vs. the US Dollar (USD) and underperforming all the G10 currencies along with its haven peer Swiss Franc (CHF). US/Japan talks proceeding well"The bulk of the yen’s losses appear to have coincided with the release of trade data for March, which showed better than expected balances but a notable (and worrisome) disappointment in growth of both exports and imports." "Trade negotiations remain the primary focus for the yen at the moment, however, and this week’s talks in Washington are said to have been constructive. Negotiators reportedly did not discuss currency, and are planning to meet later this month."

16:41 CAD gives up mild gain led by steady BoC – Scotiabank
The Bank of Canada leaving policy on hold on Wednesday provided a minor boost for the Canadian Dollar (CAD) but the pair has nudged a little higher again this morning, reflecting minor gains in the US Dollar (USD), leaving funds trading more or less bang on our fair value estimate (1.3881), Scotiaba

The Bank of Canada leaving policy on hold on Wednesday provided a minor boost for the Canadian Dollar (CAD) but the pair has nudged a little higher again this morning, reflecting minor gains in the US Dollar (USD), leaving funds trading more or less bang on our fair value estimate (1.3881), Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. Trend momentum still leans USD-bearish "Some short-covering demand may give the USD a mild lift in the short run as markets square up positioning into the long weekend." "The risk of further BoC policy easing steps is unlikely to recede too far in the coming months but policymakers will need more clarity on the tariff regime facing Canada before acting. Ontario is introducing legislation that will remove provincial trade barriers (so long as other jurisdictions reciprocate). Never let a good crisis go to waste.""Mild gains for the USD today following a drop in spot yesterday keep the short-term technical picture somewhat neutral for spot. Broader patterns and trend momentum still lean USD-bearish and will keep the lid on any USD gains (to the 1.4000/25 area at most). Support is 1.3825/50."

16:41 GBP is consolidating recent rally – Scotiabank
Pound Sterling (GBP) is entering Thursday’s American session flat against the US Dollar (USD) with relative gains against all of the G-10 currencies with the exception of Swedish Krona (SEK) and Norwegian Krone (NOK), Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Pound Sterling (GBP) is entering Thursday’s American session flat against the US Dollar (USD) with relative gains against all of the G-10 currencies with the exception of Swedish Krona (SEK) and Norwegian Krone (NOK), Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. GBP to remain bullish medium-term"The absence of domestic data releases and central bank events leaves the pound vulnerable to trading on broader developments and the market tone, with some risk from the ECB as well. We see the balance of risk as being tilted to the upside, and remain bullish GBP from a longer-term perspective.""GBP/USD appears to be consolidating following an impressive 7-session rally however we see no major resistance ahead of the September 2024 high around 1.34. Near-term support is expected between 1.3220 and 1.32."

16:31 EUR/JPY falls back as ECB warns economic risks after easing monetary policy further
The EUR/JPY pair gives up its entire intraday gains and ticks lower to near 161.50 during North American trading hours on Thursday. The pair faces a sharp sell-off as the Euro (EUR) underperforms after the monetary policy announcement by the European Central Bank (ECB).

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The pair faces a sharp sell-off as the Euro (EUR) underperforms after the monetary policy announcement by the European Central Bank (ECB).The ECB has cut its key borrowing rates by 25 basis points (bps), as expected, pushed the Deposit Facility Rate and Main Refinancing Operations Rate lower to 2.25% and 2.4%, respectively. This is the sixth straight interest rate cut by the ECB in a row and the seventh time since June, when the central bank started unwinding the restrictive monetary policy stance.It appears that the ECB has changed its stance from “accommodative” to “neutral” as it omitted to use the phrase that interest rates are still restrictive. However, it has posted a grim picture of the Eurozone economic outlook in the face of tariffs imposed by United States (US) President Donald Trump, which are currently paused for 30 days. “Outlook for growth has deteriorated owing to rising trade tensions,” the ECB said in the monetary policy statement.Meanwhile, ECB President Christine Lagarde has expressed confidence that defence and infrastructure spending will bolster manufacturing activities in her press conference after the policy decision. Lagarde doesn’t expect that the economy has contracted in the first quarter but warns that the economic outlook is “clouded by uncertainty".Though investors have underpinned the Euro over the Japanese Yen (JPY), it struggles to outperform against its other peers, even as US President Trump has confirmed that trade talks with Japan's economic revitalization minister Ryosei Akazawa went smoothly.“A Great Honour to have just met with the Japanese Delegation on Trade. Big Progress!” US President Donald Trump wrote in a post on Truth.Social platform on Wednesday.While Japanese officials are still concerned about the economic outlook due to the passive effects of Trump tariffs on their economy. Earlier in the day, Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Kato said that he is “deeply concerned” about US tariffs affecting “Japan and the world economy”. Economic Indicator ECB Rate On Deposit Facility One of the European Central Bank's three key interest rates, the rate on the deposit facility, is the rate at which banks earn interest when they deposit funds with the ECB. It is announced by the European Central Bank at each of its eight scheduled annual meetings. Read more. Last release: Thu Apr 17, 2025 12:15 Frequency: Irregular Actual: 2.25% Consensus: 2.25% Previous: 2.5% Source: European Central Bank

16:20 Lagarde speech: Tariffs impact is possibly negative on growth
Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to lower key rates by 25 basis points at the April policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.

16:13 Lagarde speech: Meaningless to assess restrictiveness now
Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to lower key rates by 25 basis points at the April policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.

16:07 USD consolidates, trump criticizes Powell – Scotiabank
The US Dollar (USD) is tracking a little higher in rather calm and generally featureless trade.

The US Dollar (USD) is tracking a little higher in rather calm and generally featureless trade. European stocks are lower, following yesterday’s losses, but US equity futures were mildly higher, reflecting positive comments ('great progress') by President Trump on US/Japan trade talks, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. USD mildly higher, consolidates"Yesterday, stocks responded poorly to Fed Chair Powell suggesting that tariff policy could create tension between the central bank’s inflation and jobs mandates while making clear that inflation was currently too high for the Fed to ease interest rate policy. By implication, Powell made it clear that the Fed was not taking its eye off the inflation ball to address market volatility." "That prompted an early morning blast from President Trump today criticizing the Fed for not cutting rates sooner and saying that Chair Powell’s 'termination can’t come fast enough'. That tilted equity futures lower. The S&P 500’s inability to regain early April levels and close the 'Liberation Day' gap in price action leaves a negative technical look to the charts. A period of volatility and uncertainty around tariffs and their consequences remains in store for markets generally, it would seem." "Pressuring the Fed and using the word 'termination' may not help ease foreign investor concerns about the outlook for Fed independence or US markets generally. While the DXY is a little firmer on the session, the index remains in consolidation mode and is barely trading off last week’s low. Risks here remain geared towards more losses and a sustained push under the 99 level for the index."

16:05 Lagarde speech: Options were debated, no one argued for 50 bps cut
Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to lower key rates by 25 basis points at the April policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.

16:05 Fed’s Williams: Neutral rate is still likely low
New York Fed president John Williams told Fox Business on Thursday that monetary policy is “well positioned” and doesn’t need any tweaks right now.

New York Fed president John Williams told Fox Business on Thursday that monetary policy is “well positioned” and doesn’t need any tweaks right now. He warned that Trump’s tariffs are likely to stoke inflation, drag on growth and lift unemployment, but sees no need to move the fed funds rate anytime soon.Key QuotesThe economy is in a very good place amid uncertainty. Monetary policy is well positioned, doesn’t see need to change rates any time soon. Monetary policy is in the right place. Tariffs will drive up inflation this year and lower growth. Time to collect data and understand what’s going on. It’s really hard to say what Fed will do with rate policy. Inflation expectations are important to watch right now. Market pricing reflects uncertainty about outlook. My basic views on monetary policy haven’t fundamentally changed. Recent inflation has been good news but still above target. Key is to watch how trade policies affect inflation. Tariffs will definitely impact inflation this year, unclear how long it persists. Fed needs to make sure one time change in prices doesn’t affect longer run. It’s essential to keep inflation expectations anchored. Won’t make a prediction about recessions. Growth this year likely significantly slower, unemployment up. GDP likely under 1% this year, jobless rate up to 4.5%–5%. Neutral rate is still likely low. Longer run federal funds rate likely around 3%.

16:00 Russia Central Bank Reserves $: $655.8B vs previous $658B
Russia Central Bank Reserves $: $655.8B vs previous $658B

15:58 Lagarde speech: Strong Euro could push down inflation
Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to lower key rates by 25 basis points at the April policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.

15:53 Lagarde speech: Economic outlook is clouded by uncertainty
Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to lower key rates by 25 basis points at the April policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.

15:43 US: Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 215K last week
US citizens filing new applications for unemployment insurance ticked lower to 215K for the week ending April 12, as reported by the US Department of Labor (DOL) on Thursday. This print came in below initial estimates and was lower than the previous week's revised tally of 224K (revised from 223K).

Initial Jobless Claims missed consensus at 215K.Continuing Jobless Claims rose to 1.885M.US citizens filing new applications for unemployment insurance ticked lower to 215K for the week ending April 12, as reported by the US Department of Labor (DOL) on Thursday. This print came in below initial estimates and was lower than the previous week's revised tally of 224K (revised from 223K).The report also highlighted a seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate of 1.2%, while the four-week moving average decreased by 2.5K to 220.75K from the prior week’s revised average.Moreover, Continuing Jobless Claims went up by 41K to reach 1.885M for the week ending April 5.Market reactionThe Greenback keeps its upside momentum in place on Thursday, revisiting the 99.60 zone and gathering some fresh buying interest after bottoming out near 99.20 during early trade.

15:31 CBRT surprises markets with a rate hike to 46.00%
The Turkish central bank (CBRT) shocked investors on Thursday with a hefty 350 bps leap in its key interest rate to 46%, abruptly reversing its easing cycle and giving the lira a modest boost.

The Turkish central bank (CBRT) shocked investors on Thursday with a hefty 350 bps leap in its key interest rate to 46%, abruptly reversing its easing cycle and giving the lira a modest boost.The surprise move, prompted by last month’s market roller‑coaster following Istanbul’s mayoral arrest, didn’t stop there: policymakers also raised the overnight lending rate from 46% to 49%, lifted the overnight borrowing rate to 44.5% from 41.0%, and suspended one‑week repo auctions. All of this unfolded against a backdrop of mounting global uncertainty, as the US‑China trade war escalates and rattles markets worldwide.Key takeaways from the bank’s statementUnderlying trend of inflation declined in March. Leading indicators point to a level of domestic demand above projections despite some loss of momentum in the first quarter. Potential effects of the rising protectionism in global trade on the disinflation process through global economic activity, commodity prices and capital flows are closely monitored. Inflation expectations and pricing behaviour continue to pose risks to the disinflation process. Decisiveness regarding tight monetary stance is strengthening the disinflation process through moderation in domestic demand, real appreciation in Turkish lira, and improvement in inflation expectations. Going forward, increased coordination of fiscal policy will also contribute significantly to this process. The tight monetary stance will be maintained until price stability is achieved via a sustained decline in inflation.Market reactionThe Turkish Lira has appreciated markedly following the surprising hike by the CBRT, putting USD/TRY under decent downside pressure and dragging it to the 3800 neighbourhood on Thursday.

15:31 United States Continuing Jobless Claims came in at 1.885M, above expectations (1.87M) in April 4
United States Continuing Jobless Claims came in at 1.885M, above expectations (1.87M) in April 4

15:31 Canada Canadian Portfolio Investment in Foreign Securities climbed from previous $-3.15B to $27.15B in February
Canada Canadian Portfolio Investment in Foreign Securities climbed from previous $-3.15B to $27.15B in February

15:30 United States Initial Jobless Claims came in at 215K below forecasts (225K) in April 11
United States Initial Jobless Claims came in at 215K below forecasts (225K) in April 11

15:30 United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 220.75K (April 11) vs previous 223K
United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 220.75K (April 11) vs previous 223K

15:30 United States Building Permits Change rose from previous -1.2% to 1.6% in March
United States Building Permits Change rose from previous -1.2% to 1.6% in March

15:30 United States Housing Starts (MoM) below expectations (1.42M) in March: Actual (1.324M)
United States Housing Starts (MoM) below expectations (1.42M) in March: Actual (1.324M)

15:30 United States Housing Starts Change down to -11.4% in March from previous 11.2%
United States Housing Starts Change down to -11.4% in March from previous 11.2%

15:30 United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey came in at -26.4, below expectations (2) in April
United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey came in at -26.4, below expectations (2) in April

15:30 United States Building Permits (MoM) came in at 1.482M, above forecasts (1.45M) in March
United States Building Permits (MoM) came in at 1.482M, above forecasts (1.45M) in March

15:30 Canada Foreign Portfolio Investment in Canadian Securities came in at $-6.46B, below expectations ($12.89B) in February
Canada Foreign Portfolio Investment in Canadian Securities came in at $-6.46B, below expectations ($12.89B) in February

15:15 Eurozone ECB Main Refinancing Operations Rate meets expectations (2.4%)
Eurozone ECB Main Refinancing Operations Rate meets expectations (2.4%)

15:15 Eurozone ECB Rate On Deposit Facility in line with forecasts (2.25%)
Eurozone ECB Rate On Deposit Facility in line with forecasts (2.25%)

14:36 India M3 Money Supply declined to 9.5% in March 31 from previous 9.6%
India M3 Money Supply declined to 9.5% in March 31 from previous 9.6%

14:13 GBP/USD Price Forecast: Rally pauses near 1.3300
The GBP/USD pair ticks lower to near 1.3230 during European trading hours on Thursday. The Cable edges lower as the US Dollar (USD) attracts some bids on meaningful progress in trade talks between the United States (US) and Japan.

14:02 Gold off from fresh all-time highs on progress in US-Japan trade talks
Gold price (XAU/USD) corrects slightly to near $3,312 in Thursday’s European session after hitting a fresh all-time high of $3,358 earlier in the day.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold price retraces to near $3,310 as US President Trump signaled progress in trade talks between Washington and Japan.The US-China dignity war will keep the downside of the Gold price limited.US-Japan trade talks and Fed Powell’s hawkish remarks have offered some relief to the US Dollar.Gold price (XAU/USD) corrects slightly to near $3,312 in Thursday’s European session after hitting a fresh all-time high of $3,358 earlier in the day. The precious metal faces profit-booking as meaningful progress in trade negotiations between the United States (US) and Japan has offered some relief on fears of potential global economic turmoil.“A Great Honour to have just met with the Japanese Delegation on Trade. Big Progress!” US President Donald Trump wrote in a post on TruthSocial platform on Wednesday. Positive development in trade talks between Washington and Tokyo indicates that US President Trump has used the tariff tool to have a dominant position while negotiating bilateral deals with his trading partners. This has resulted in a slight ease in global market uncertainty.However, investors should refrain from going all in on Gold price shorts as the intensified trade war between the US and China is sufficient to keep the risk-appetite theme at bay. Precious metals tend to perform better in heightened global economic tensions.The tussle between the US and China has become more of a battle of dignity than a scale of tariffs. The US wants China to initiate trade talks first, citing that they need our money. Meanwhile, China is willing to come to the table, but with respect and mutual interest. On Tuesday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said that the President wants China to go first for trade talks. "The ball is in China’s court: China needs to make a deal with us, we don’t have to make a deal with them,” Leavitt said.Daily digest market movers: Gold price falls while US Dollar ticks higherGold price is off from its all-time high of $3,358 on Thursday. The slight correction in the precious metal's price is also driven by a nominal recovery in the US Dollar (USD). The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, attracts bids near the three-year low of 99.00 and moves higher to near 99.50, at the time of writing.Trump’s preference for trade talks over imposition of hefty reciprocal tariffs has lightened uncertainty across the globe, which is clear from a slight recovery move in the US Dollar. Technically, a higher US Dollar makes investment in Gold expensive for investors.The USD Index faced a ruthless sell-off in the past few months as market experts became highly pessimist on the US economic growth in the face of Trump’s tariff policies. Market participants anticipated that the imposition of higher duties on all imports into the US would lead to an increase in inflation and impact economic growth.Additionally, a slight hawkish commentary from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell at the Economic Club in Chicago on Wednesday offered some relief to the US Dollar. Powell signaled that the US economy is still firm despite Trump’s economic policies have stemmed economic risks. “US economy is solid despite heightened uncertainty, downside risks,” Powell said. He was confident that the economy is still in a position to wait for greater clarity, which gives them confidence to avoid any monetary policy adjustments.Technical Analysis: Gold price stays above key EMAsGold price edges lower from its all-time highs of $3,358 on Thursday. However, the overall outlook of the Gold price remains bullish as all short-to-long Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) are sloping higher.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) trades above 70.00, suggesting a strong bullish momentum.Looking down, the 20-day EMA near $3,135.50 will act as a key support zone for the pair. On the upside, the round-level resistance of $3,400 will act as a key resistance zone. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

13:52 JPY bulls should be cautious about the US-Japan trade talks – DBS
Japan pushes back on US tariff demands, citing economic harm and insisting on separate FX talks, DBS' FX strategist Philip Wee reports.

Japan pushes back on US tariff demands, citing economic harm and insisting on separate FX talks, DBS' FX strategist Philip Wee reports.Trump joins Japan talks, tariffs and Yen in focus"US President Donald Trump has inserted himself into the US-Japan trade negotiations over April 16-18. Trump’s involvement underscored the high stakes and his desire to validate his tariff strategy to achieve trade fairness and reduce deficits. In the discussions, Trump emphasized tariffs, military cost-sharing, and broader trade fairness." "Describing the US tariffs as a national crisis, Japan Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba told parliament that “haste makes waste,” indicating no rush to reach a deal by making big concessions. Tokyo was also resistant to the US request to include the JPY in the talks, which it preferred to address in separate discussions between their finance ministers. Japan advocated removing additional tariffs such as the 25% duty on autos, auto parts, steel and aluminium, highlighting their detrimental impact on domestic industries and company profits." "The Nikkei 225 Index fell 19.4% to 30793 between March 26 and April 7 before recovering to 34087. The OIS futures do not expect the Bank of Japan to deliver more rate hikes in 2025; the 10Y JGB yield fell to 1.29% from its 1.59% peak in late March. Having fallen sharply from its 159 high in January, USD/JPY is approaching the 140-support level held at the end of 2023 and September 2024."

13:50 US Pres. Trump: Powell of Fed is always too late and wrong
US President Donald Trump accused Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell of being "too late and wrong" in a post on Truth Social on Thursday.

13:49 CAD: On hold with little guidance possible – MUFG
On a day in which the US Dollar (USD) sold off across G10, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) advanced by 0.7% yesterday helped in part by the decision of the Bank of Canada to hold off from cutting rates again – the first pause from the BoC since the beginning of the easing cycle in June last year.

On a day in which the US Dollar (USD) sold off across G10, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) advanced by 0.7% yesterday helped in part by the decision of the Bank of Canada to hold off from cutting rates again – the first pause from the BoC since the beginning of the easing cycle in June last year. The OIS market was partially priced for a 25bp cut (at about a 35%-40% probability) so the hold helped push USD/CAD lower, MUFG's FX analyst Derek Halpenny notes.BoC pauses, but cuts still loom as trade risks persistThe Governing Council would 'proceed carefully, with particular risks and uncertainties facing the Canadian economy'. The BoC also published its Monetary Policy Report and given the difficulty in forecasting the outlook presented two scenarios – Scenario 1 was the more benign with trade tariffs 'negotiated away' but under a difficult and uncertain process that lasts through to the end of 2026. Scenario 2 assumed the current tariffs are added to by the US and a “long-lasting trade war unfolds.”"Scenario 1 sees global and Canadian growth slow temporarily and inflation declines to 1.5% for one year and then returns to the 2.0% target. Scenario 2 there is a sharper downturn in global growth and inflation picks up but in Canada a “significant recession” unfolds with a temporary pick-up in inflation to 3.0% by mid-2026 before then returning to the 2.0% target.""Based on these scenarios and the comment from Governor Macklem to act 'decisively' if required, this pause probably won’t last and a rate cut in June is likely assuming by then we have more clarity in US trade policy. 50bps of cuts are priced in the OIS market which we believe reflects Scenario 1 laid out by the BoC – the more benign one. Anything more aggressive, and the BoC will cut by more than priced."

13:43 US Dollar slides, but support holds ahead of holiday break – DBS
Despite the DXY Index’s 1% fall to a three-year low of 99.26 overnight, we are cautious and mindful that the DXY has yet to break below the intra-day low of 99 seen on April 11, DBS' FX strategist Philip Wee reports.

Despite the DXY Index’s 1% fall to a three-year low of 99.26 overnight, we are cautious and mindful that the DXY has yet to break below the intra-day low of 99 seen on April 11, DBS' FX strategist Philip Wee reports. Markets seek safety in bonds as equities extend losses"Unlike last week, no de-dollarisation fears were inferred from investors dumping US Treasuries while exiting US equities. Yesterday, investors sought safety in bonds, driving the US Treasury 10Y yield lower a third day by 5.6 bps to 4.277% amid the 2.2% decline in the S&P 500. Markets may reverse again before US stock markets close on Good Friday; the US bond market will close early today in observance of Maundy Thursday.""Fed Chair Jerome Powell affirmed that Trump’s significantly higher-than-expected tariffs would lead to stagflation and pose a challenge to the Fed achieving its dual mandate of price stability and full employment. Apart from the blunt tone, Powell’s comments did not deviate from his colleagues’ narrative for an extended pause. The Fed sees tariffs lifting prices but will refrain from hiking rates as long as long-term inflation expectations stay anchored amid a rising unemployment rate on a slowing economy." "Powell said the Fed was ready to provide dollars overseas, a tacit reaffirmation of the USD’s dominant role as the world’s reserve currency. This comment also implied agreement with Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s recent assessment to look past high inflation and cut cuts if a recession becomes imminent."

13:12 EUR/USD holds below 1.1473 despite 1% rebound – DBS
EUR/USD rebounded 1% overnight but remains below last Friday’s 1.1473 high. The ECB is expected to cut rates by 25bps to 2.25%, and President Lagarde is expected to flag euro strength and US tariffs as key disinflationary risks, DBS' FX strategist Philip Wee notes.

EUR/USD rebounded 1% overnight but remains below last Friday’s 1.1473 high. The ECB is expected to cut rates by 25bps to 2.25%, and President Lagarde is expected to flag euro strength and US tariffs as key disinflationary risks, DBS' FX strategist Philip Wee notes. Lagarde likely to flag EUR strength as disinflationary risk"Looking beyond its 1% rebound overnight, EUR/USD is still within its three-day range between 1.1260 and 1.1430, and below last Friday’s intra-day high of 1.1473." "Apart from the European Central Bank cutting its deposit facility rate by 25 bps to 2.25% today, we expect some concern from ECB President Christine Lagarde regarding the EUR’s recent appreciation as a factor holding inflation down and adding to the headwinds posed by US tariffs." "The accompanying ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters should also reflect downgraded growth expectations, affirming that the defence and infrastructure spending under the 'ReArm Europe' Plan would not offset the immediate headwinds due to the negative impact of US tariffs."

13:07 USD: JPY weakens on trade deal optimism – MUFG
The US Dollar (USD) weakened into the close of trading on Wednesday but has rebounded helped in part by optimism over the pace in which the US might be willing to reach deals with key trading partners.

The US Dollar (USD) weakened into the close of trading on Wednesday but has rebounded helped in part by optimism over the pace in which the US might be willing to reach deals with key trading partners. The comments made by Fed Chair Powell at the Economic Club in Chicago certainly indicated the difficulty central banks find themselves in in trying to manage upside inflation risks and downside growth risks. Our sense was that Powell clearly leaned in favour of focusing on inflation and ensuring price stability arguing that that was the basis for stronger economic growth, MUFG's FX analyst Derek Halpenny notes. USD rebounds on trade talk optimism with Japan"The lower UST bond yields weighed on the US dollar and it was the comments from Japan’s Economic Revitalisation Minister Ryosei Akazawa that helped prompt the rebound of the dollar. President Trump had earlier posted on Truth Social that “Big Progress” had been made in initial trade talks with Japan and Akazawa echoed the optimism stating that the US wanted a deal within the 90-day tariff postponement period. He added that there was no discussions related to FX.""The length of time of these meetings make it difficult for us to believe that anything of substance would have been agreed and for Japan this meeting was about 'building trust'. Nonetheless, another meeting is scheduled and the comments made have understandably lifted optimism. We perhaps should not be surprised. If there are countries that the US would be eager to reach deals with it would be the countries in Asia that have notable trading relations with China. We are also not surprised that FX was not raised as an issue.""We expect the ECB to cut by 25bps today and the ECB should signal the scope to cut further given the downside growth risks will likely be viewed as greater than the upside inflation risks. The EUR EER-41 is 5.5% stronger than assumed in March forecasts that will add to downside inflation risks relative to those forecasts. Still, like Powell last night and BoC Governor Macklem, we shouldn’t expect any strong conviction in policy guidance given the elevated uncertainty. That should limit post-press conference moves in EUR/USD and rates."

12:58 NZD: Renewed rise in inflation not a problem – Commerzbank
In New Zealand, a CPI indicator is published every month, but these monthly figures only cover the prices of around 44% of the basket of goods and services, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes.

In New Zealand, a CPI indicator is published every month, but these monthly figures only cover the prices of around 44% of the basket of goods and services, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes. RBNZ still seen cutting in May despite rising momentum"The full set of inflation data is still only available once a quarter. And this morning the figures for Q1 were published. At 0.9% quarter-on-quarter, the rate of price increases was slightly higher than the median forecast of analysts. However, the annual rate rose only slightly from 2.2% to 2.5%, which is right in the middle of the RBNZ's target range." "On a more positive note, the annual rate for services eased back to 4.2% (from 4.8% in the previous quarter), closer to the central bank's target. However, it must also be said that the annualised quarterly rates are above the central bank's target and that inflation momentum seems to have picked up recently.""This should still give the central bank room to cut rates again at the end of May, as I expect. However, it must also be said that the six weeks until the next central bank meeting is quite a long time in the current international environment. As a result, the Kiwi has been trading very cautious this morning and has not shown much movement."

12:54 Powell flags trade tariff risks, signals cuts still in play – UBS
Federal Reserve Chair Powell noted US President Trump’s trade taxes would raise inflation and lower economic growth. Markets have already worked this out, but Powell saying it has policy implications.

Federal Reserve Chair Powell noted US President Trump’s trade taxes would raise inflation and lower economic growth. Markets have already worked this out, but Powell saying it has policy implications. On the evidence of (unreliable) sentiment surveys, over a third of US consumers think inflation will exceed 10% this year. Powell emphasized longer-term inflation expectations, which should still allow for rate cuts. The self-inflicted nature of the economic slowdown may limit the number of cuts, UBS' analyst Paul Donovan reports. Trump’s trade strategy back in focus as Japan talks progress"Trump attended trade talks with Japan—this matters as deals require Trump’s assent. Trump talked about a “big deal” which markets are interpreting as a big retreat. Japan’s trade data today emphasized that imbalances in an ageing society are unlikely to be concerning—Trump’s focus on Japan seems more reminiscent of 1980s economics.""The ECB is expected to cut rates (62 economists agree, and how could so many economists be wrong?). Comparing ECB President Lagarde’s comments with those of Powell might be instructive, as the European economy will suffer less damage from Trump’s taxes than will the US.""The US Philly Fed business sentiment survey is due. All sentiment data is extremely suspect nowadays, but markets are focused on the corporate inactivity amidst policy uncertainty. Even unreliable evidence therefore has influence."

12:51 AUD: Job market remains robust – Commerzbank
After losing 57,500 jobs in February, the Australian labour market rebounded slightly in March with 32,200 new jobs, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes.

After losing 57,500 jobs in February, the Australian labour market rebounded slightly in March with 32,200 new jobs, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes. Australian labour market remains very robust "Looking at March alone, the Australian labour market remains very robust. At 4.1%, the unemployment rate remains very low and well below pre-pandemic levels. Underemployment and youth unemployment also remain low.""However, it should also be noted that employment figures are very volatile on a monthly basis. Looking at the three-month moving average, only 2,100 jobs per month have been created on average over the past three months, suggesting a significant cooling in the labour market.""At its last meeting, the RBA emphasised that the strong labour market continued to be seen as a risk to inflation. However, the April jobs report will be released before the next meeting on 20 May. The significance of today's figures for the currency market is therefore limited, which explains the AUD's muted reaction this morning."

12:48 Pressure builds on EUR/CHF as key support level faces retest – Société Générale
EUR/CHF is clinging to key support at 0.9210, the lower boundary of its long-standing range. While the decline has paused, a clear move above the 200-DMA (0.9410/0.9430) is needed to confirm a short-term recovery.

EUR/CHF is clinging to key support at 0.9210, the lower boundary of its long-standing range. While the decline has paused, a clear move above the 200-DMA (0.9410/0.9430) is needed to confirm a short-term recovery. Failure to hold current levels risks a deeper slide toward 0.9155 and potentially 0.9050/0.9025, Société Générale's FX analysts note. EUR/CHF holds crucial 0.9210 support"EUR/CHF has recently tested the lower limit of the range withing which it has evolved since last August at 0.9210. This is a crucial support. The decline has stalled but the pair must establish beyond the 200-DMA at 0.9410/0.9430 to confirm a short-term bounce." "If the pair fails to defend 0.9210, there could be a risk of extension in the phase of downtrend. Next objectives could be located at projections at 0.9155 and 0.9050/0.9025."

12:48 EUR/INR today: Indian Rupee cross rates down at the start of the European session
Indian Rupee (INR) crosses trade with a negative bias at the start of Thursday, according to FXStreet data.

12:45 TRY: CBT may tweak some policy tools – Commerzbank
The Turkish central bank (CBT) is unlikely to cut its main repo rate at today’s meeting, so soon after it had to emergency tighten rates inter-meeting following the market blow-up when Istanbul Mayor Ekrem was arrested.

The Turkish central bank (CBT) is unlikely to cut its main repo rate at today’s meeting, so soon after it had to emergency tighten rates inter-meeting following the market blow-up when Istanbul Mayor Ekrem was arrested. Nevertheless, some tweaking of secondary policy tools is possible: for example, CBT might normalise its effective interest rate back towards the 42.50% level by re-opening the weekly repo facility, while perhaps still limiting the volume offered through this facility, Commerzbank's FX analyst Tatha Ghose notes. No reason to re-start rate cutsFrom a fundamental point of view, there is no argument to re-start rate cuts. An examination of recent developments, particularly the rise in inflation expectations and persistent currency pressures (despite ongoing FX interventions), means that the higher effective 46% interest rate (based on the overnight lending rate) should be maintained for now."Moreover, despite aggressive interventions to defend the USD/TRY 38.0 threshold, volatility has persisted. USD/TRY has broken through that 38.0 barrier and now trades at 38.10 (which will de facto become the new line of defence). According to local media reports, FX reserves declined by c.$40bn following İmamoğlu’s detention, and net reserves excluding swaps fell to just $19.3bn compared with a March peak at $59.5bn. Such interventions are obviously not sustainable.""In any case, the use of the infamous rate corridor, once again, is an unmitigated disaster for CBT’s credibility. It will be interesting to observe whether CBT management express the appropriate caution in its wording today, or sound complacent that the situation is already well under control. Any complacency will open the exchange rate up to further shocks."

12:43 TRY: The more hawkish, the more carry – ING
The main event in the CEE region today is the Central Bank of Turkey meeting, ING's FX analyst Frantisek Taborsky notes.

The main event in the CEE region today is the Central Bank of Turkey meeting, ING's FX analyst Frantisek Taborsky notes.USD/TRY remains basically unchanged at 38.000"This will be the first regular meeting since the March sell-off in the TRY market. In the interim meeting in March, the CBT not only raised the upper band of the interest rate corridor (O/N lending rate) to 46% but also turned it into the effective policy rate by tightening TRY liquidity, while keeping the policy rate (1-week repo rate) flat at 42.5%. These developments suggest that the CBT is likely to remain mute today.""Benign March inflation data, with an improvement in the underlying trend, will also lead the CBT to keep the policy rate unchanged rather than hike it. However, the CBT's daily balance sheet has, in recent days, shown a continuation of the pressure on the net FX position. Therefore, we do not rule out a further adjustment in the upper band. Overall, market expectations show unchanged rates, but the market would probably not be completely surprised if there is some rate tightening today.""USD/TRY remains basically unchanged at 38.000 since the spike in mid-March. In recent days, however, we have started to see the central bank again allowing the TRY to weaken slightly, but at a slower pace than before, leaving a still fat carry on the table. As we commented here after the March sell-off, we still like the TRY as a carry trade and it is the March move in the currency that gives the central bank the resolve to maintain only slow TRY depreciation and not allow additional inflationary pressures, keeping the currency attractive to investors and pushing against the outflows we have seen since the March move."

12:30 Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Thursday, according to FXStreet data.

12:13 Japan’s Kato: Deeply concerned about US tariffs affecting Japan, world economy
Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Kato said on Thursday that he is “deeply concerned about US tariffs affecting Japan, world economy.”

Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Kato said on Thursday that he is “deeply concerned about US tariffs affecting Japan, world economy.”Additional quotesImpact could be felt via various routes such as trade and financial markets.There's a risk of exerting downwards pressure on Japan's economy.No comment on what will be discussed on FX at possible meeting with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.No change to Japan's stance over recent FX market developments.Actively exchanging views with the US on basic stance on FX.Will closely communicate with the US on currency issues in light of market volatility.Market reactionUSD/JPY was last seen trading at 142.75, up 0.61% on the day.

12:09 EUR/GBP trades in the red below 0.8600 mark ahead of ECB rate decision
The EUR/GBP cross struggles to capitalize on the previous day's goodish rebound from the 0.8525-0.8520 area or a fresh weekly low and attracts some intraday sellers on Thursday.

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Spot prices remain depressed below the 0.8600 mark through the first half of the European session, though the downside remains cushioned as traders opt to wait on the sidelines ahead of the key central bank event risk. The European Central Bank (ECB) is scheduled to announce its policy decision later today and is widely expected to cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points (bps). This would mark the sixth consecutive rate reduction amid the softening inflation in the Eurozone and the uncertainty over US President Donald Trump's trade policies. A blanket 10% import duty remains in place despite Trump's U-turn on the so-called reciprocal tariffs announced earlier this month.In the meantime, a modest US Dollar (USD) bounce from the vicinity of a multi-year low seems to weigh on the Euro, which, in turn, acts as a headwind for the EUR/GBP cross. The British Pound (GBP), on the other hand, continues with its relative outperformance in the wake of hopes that the UK will eventually strike a trade deal with the US. In fact, US Vice-President JD Vance said there was a "good chance" a trade deal could be reached with the UK.This, to a larger extent, overshadows the softer-than-expected UK consumer inflation figures released on Wednesday. The Office for National Statistics reported that the headline UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed to an annual rate of 2.6% in March from 2.8% in the previous month. Investors, however, seem convinced that an all-out global trade war would pressure prices, which, in turn, backs the view that the Bank of England (BoE) will lower borrowing costs more slowly.The aforementioned fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for the EUR/GBP cross is to the downside. However, the lack of any meaningful selling warrants some caution before positioning for an extension of the recent pullback from the 0.8735-0.8740 region, or the highest level since November 2023 touched last Friday. Economic Indicator ECB Press Conference Following the European Central Bank’s (ECB) economic policy decision, the ECB President gives a press conference regarding monetary policy. The president’s comments may influence the volatility of the Euro (EUR) and determine a short-term positive or negative trend. If the president adopts a hawkish tone it is considered bullish for the EUR, whereas if the tone is dovish the result is usually bearish for the Euro. Read more. Last release: Thu Mar 06, 2025 13:45 Frequency: Irregular Actual: - Consensus: - Previous: - Source: European Central Bank

12:07 NZD/USD remains below five-month highs near 0.5950, US Jobless Claims eyed
NZD/USD breaks its winning streak that began on April 9, slipping to around 0.5920 during Thursday’s European session. The pair weakens as the US Dollar gains traction, supported by stronger-than-expected consumer spending data.

12:05 CAD: Waiting for the tariff impact – Commerzbank
The Bank of Canada (BoC) decided yesterday to keep interest rates unchanged and stressed that it would wait to see the impact of the US tariffs.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) decided yesterday to keep interest rates unchanged and stressed that it would wait to see the impact of the US tariffs. Like so many central banks, it noted in its statement that uncertainty is exceptionally high at the moment and that it is not possible to predict which tariffs will ultimately remain in place for an extended period of time, Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes. The risks to the BoC are tilted to the downside"The usual forecasts that would have accompanied the new monetary policy report were not published in this form. Instead, the BoC sees two possible scenarios for the future: one that involves a great deal of uncertainty, but in which the tariffs are ultimately averted through negotiations." "In such a scenario, growth would be somewhat lower in the near term, but inflation would likely remain around the midpoint of the inflation target. And a scenario in which a full-blown trade war breaks out, inflation rises above 3% next year, and Canada falls into recession this year.""It is difficult to say which scenario will ultimately prevail. In the optimistic scenario, the BoC should have no problem keeping rates at this level for an extended period. In the much more pessimistic scenario, we are likely to see several rate cuts this year. The risks to the BoC are therefore tilted to the downside. We would therefore remain cautious about pushing the CAD's recovery too far until the uncertainty has abated somewhat."

11:31 AUD/JPY remains above 90.50 following disappointing Japan’s export data
AUD/JPY recovers its recent losses registered in the previous session, trading near 90.70 during Thursday’s European session. The recovery is largely driven by weakness in the Japanese Yen (JPY), following disappointing export data from Japan for March.

11:30 Neither hard data nor a rather hawkish Powell are helping the US Dollar – Commerzbank
The US Dollar (USD) had another bad day on Wednesday, suffering several losses – EUR/USD even briefly traded above 1.14. However, this was not really due to the data, which was mixed at best.

The US Dollar (USD) had another bad day on Wednesday, suffering several losses – EUR/USD even briefly traded above 1.14. However, this was not really due to the data, which was mixed at best. US retail sales were quite strong, although some consumers may have brought forward their larger purchases to avoid the reciprocal tariffs. Although industrial production fell a little more than expected, the previous month's figure was revised up by the same amount. Moreover, the decline was probably due to the mild weather rather than a real slowdown in the economy, Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes. Fed to deliver further rate cuts sooner rather than later"Yesterday's figures thus continued the pattern seen in recent weeks: while 'soft' data such as sentiment indicators have fallen sharply since Trump's inauguration, 'hard' data such as retail sales have remained fairly solid. Of course, this does not mean that the soft data will not eventually be reflected in the hard numbers. It just seems to be taking a bit longer.""Fed Chairman Jerome Powell does not seem particularly concerned about the US real economy at the moment either. In his comments yesterday he sounded rather hawkish, as he has often done recently, focusing mainly on the inflationary risks posed by US tariffs. He emphasised that the tariffs were well above the level that the Fed had priced in in its most pessimistic scenario." "However, the market still seems to doubt that the Fed can really focus solely on inflation and continues to assume that the Fed will have to deliver further rate cuts sooner rather than later to support the real economy. As a result, even a more hawkish Powell was unable to help the US dollar yesterday."

11:27 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD tumbles to near $32.50 as USD strives to gain ground
Silver price (XAG/USD) falls sharply to near $32.50 in Thursday’s European session after failing to extend a 10-day rally above the key resistance of $33.00. The white metal corrects as the US Dollar (USD) strives to gain ground near its recent lows.

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The US-China tariff war will keep the downside in the Silver price limited.Silver price (XAG/USD) falls sharply to near $32.50 in Thursday’s European session after failing to extend a 10-day rally above the key resistance of $33.00. The white metal corrects as the US Dollar (USD) strives to gain ground near its recent lows. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, attracts some bids near its three-year low of 99.00.The USD Index rebounds slightly as decent progress in negotiations on a trade deal between the United States (US) and Japan has eased some uncertainty over the domestic economic outlook. “A Great Honour to have just met with the Japanese Delegation on Trade. Big Progress!” US President Donald Trump wrote in a post on Truth.Social platform on Wednesday.This appears to be a meaningful sign that Trump wants favorable bilateral trades over hefty reciprocal tariff policies. More positive outcomes of trade negotiations by Washington with other trading partners will be favorable for the US Dollar. Such a scenario will diminish the global economic uncertainty, which would lead to a decline in demand for safe-haven assets, such as Silver.Additionally, slight hawkish commentary from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell on the monetary policy outlook has also forced traders to book profits in the Silver price. On Wednesday, Powell said in a speech at the Economic Club of Chicago that the Fed seeks more clarity on the economic outlook before making any policy adjustments. Fed’s support for a restrictive monetary policy stance bodes poorly for non-yielding assets, such as Silver.Meanwhile, the escalated trade war between China and the US will keep the downside in the Silver price limited. Beijing has shown a willingness for trade talks with Washington, but with respect and mutual understanding.Silver technical analysisSilver price holds above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $32.28, suggesting that the near-term outlook is bullish. The white metal aims to revisit the October 22 high of $34.87.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) delivers a V-shape recovery after turning oversold below 30.00. The momentum oscillator is expected to find resistance near 60.00.A fresh upside would appear in the counter if the Silver price breaks above the April 16 high of $33.12. The move will unlock targets of the October 22 high of $34.87 and an over-decade high of $35.50.On the flip side, a downside move by the Silver price below the April 14 low of $31.74 will expose it to the April 11 low of $30.90, followed by the psychological level of $30.00Silver daily chart Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver. The

11:26 USD: Powell rejects rescuer role – ING
Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered the clearest message since 'liberation day' yesterday, which was unquestionably hawkish, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered the clearest message since 'liberation day' yesterday, which was unquestionably hawkish, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.DXY can extend its drop below 99.0"Markets had leaned towards the Trump-backed narrative that the Fed would come to the rescue with rate cuts despite inflation uncertainty. Powell said he expects higher inflation and a weaker jobs market due to tariffs, but that the Fed is primarily focused on the inflation aspect. With Trump having shown greater tolerance to market turmoil than anticipated and Powell now refusing to throw a lifeline, equities remain vulnerable.""In normal market conditions, Powell’s hawkishness would have triggered a positive USD response. But the greenback is still responding to the narrative of relative US assets underperformance and growth concerns, which are arguably being compounded by a hawkish Fed. Interestingly, front-end USD swap rates didn’t move higher on Powell’s comments, and a cut in June is still more than 60% priced into the OIS curve. This is again a signal of firmly pessimistic growth expectations in the US, which are ultimately seen as leading to Fed easing.""Despite plenty of indications that the dollar is oversold and undervalued, we don’t see a catalyst for a respite today. Should US equities underperform again, DXY should extend its drop below 99.0. Markets will keep a close eye on any hints that jobless claims have risen in the week after “liberation day”. Housing figures are also published today and expected to come in soft."

11:22 Little reason for the ECB to surprise us with a hawkish stance – Commerzbank
Today's ECB decision will be the highlight of the trading week. After the market briefly doubted that there would be another rate cut today, such a move is now almost fully priced in, Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes.

Today's ECB decision will be the highlight of the trading week. After the market briefly doubted that there would be another rate cut today, such a move is now almost fully priced in, Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes. Little reason for the ECB to surprise with a hawkish stance"The ECB tends not to be swayed by such events and tends to change its stance slowly. In addition, the strong appreciation of the euro since the last rate decision and the risk of a flood of cheap Chinese goods into Europe reduce inflation risks somewhat. As a result, there is little reason for the ECB to surprise with a hawkish stance.""Things are likely to get more exciting when it comes to guidance for the upcoming meetings. If ECB President Christine Lagarde hints at the following press conference that the Governing Council is now more convinced that it is best to wait and see how the trade war unfolds, the euro could regain some ground." "However, I think such a scenario is unlikely. Lagarde will probably want to keep all options open, and the euro's behaviour will mainly depend on the wording used. However, given the factors that argue against a hawkish surprise, the risks are likely to be skewed towards a weaker euro."

11:17 EUR: Consensus cut, no guidance by ECB – ING
We expect a 25bp rate cut by the ECB today. Consensus is unanimous, and markets are fully pricing in the move, so the impact on the euro may prove limited, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

We expect a 25bp rate cut by the ECB today. Consensus is unanimous, and markets are fully pricing in the move, so the impact on the euro may prove limited, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes. Tactical target for EUR/USD is at 1.15 "We don’t expect much in terms of guidance by the ECB, which could echo Wedndesday’s Bank of Canada communication: openly acknowledge policymakers are as confused as markets on the tariff impact, and they are not able to offer any forward-looking view at this stage.""In the current state of things, the FX market is not looking much at short-term rate differentials. If it did, EUR/USD should be trading well below 1.10. While we cannot exclude the possibility that markets can take the opportunity of an ECB cut to take profit in crowded EUR longs, the news from the US is still hitting the dollar, and the highly liquid euro remains in a prime position to benefit from the rotation.""We retain a tactical target at 1.15 in EUR/USD, with risks of even larger gains. By the end of the quarter, we expect selling pressure on USD to have moderated, and we target 1.14, followed by a dollar recovery in the third quarter."

11:14 EUR/USD corrects ahead of ECB interest rate decision
EUR/USD declines to near 1.1350 during European trading hours on Thursday. The major currency pair edges lower ahead of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) interest rate decision, which will be announced at 12:15 GMT.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD falls to near 1.1350 ahead of the ECB monetary policy meeting.The ECB is expected to cut interest rates by 25 bps for the sixth time in a row.Big progress in US-Japan trade talks has provided some relief to the US Dollar.EUR/USD declines to near 1.1350 during European trading hours on Thursday. The major currency pair edges lower ahead of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) interest rate decision, which will be announced at 12:15 GMT. The ECB is widely anticipated to cut its key borrowing rates by 25 basis points (bps), pushing the Deposit Facility Rate and the Main Refinancing Operations Rate lower to 2.25% and 2.4%, respectively.Traders are increasingly confident that the ECB will reduce interest rates for the seventh time since the central bank started its easing cycle in June and sixth time in a row amid high conviction that the Eurozone inflation is on track to return to the bank’s target of 2% by the year-end. Additionally, fears of economic shocks in an already slowing economy pave the way for further monetary policy easing.As the ECB is almost certain to reduce interest rates, investors will pay close attention to ECB President Christine Lagarde’s press conference for fresh cues on the monetary policy and the economic outlook. Financial market participants would be keen to know whether Lagarde will commit to her stance that interest rates are still restrictive. If Lagarde reiterates the same, it would increase the probability of further policy easing this year.In addition to that, investors would like to know how much the tariff policy of United States (US) President Donald Trump will impact the Eurozone economic growth and what kind of measures the ECB would take to contain it.The old continent is expected to be one of the major victims of Trump’s international policies, even as the European Union’s (EU) trade commission manages to negotiate a fair deal with Washington. China is expected to diversify its products to other nations if the trade war between the US and Beijing continues. China could sell many products to the Euro area and other economies, as no other nation can beat its low-cost competitive advantage.Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD drops as US Dollar reboundsEUR/USD corrects from the round-level figure of 1.1400 as the US Dollar (USD) strives to gain ground near its recent lows. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, rebounds to near 99.60. The Greenback attracts bids on positive development in trade negotiations between the US and Japan.On Wednesday, US President Trump indicated through a post on TruthSocial that negotiations between Japan's economic revitalization minister Ryosei Akazawa and US departments have made big progress. “A Great Honour to have just met with the Japanese Delegation on Trade. Big Progress!” Trump wrote.Investors see this as a constructive step by Donald Trump that will diminish fears of global economic turmoil. His preference for negotiating bilateral trades with his trading partners rather than imposing hefty tariffs will ease uncertainty across the globe.However, the escalated trade war between the US and China will keep investors on their toes. The fight between the world’s two largest powerhouses has shifted to “who will initiate trade talks” from “size of tariffs”. On Tuesday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said that the President is open to a trade deal with Beijing, but China should make the first move. "The ball is in China’s court: China needs to make a deal with us, we don’t have to make a deal with them,” Leavitt said, Reuters reported.Meanwhile, fears of rising inflation and slower economic growth domestically will keep the US Dollar on the backfoot. On Wednesday, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell warned that growth has likely “slowed in the first quarter of 2025” from last year's solid pace in the face of Trump’s economic policies. However, Powell remained confident that the economy is 'solid' despite heightened uncertainty and downside risks, and reiterated a “wait and see” approach until the Fed gets greater clarity.Technical Analysis: EUR/USD faces pressure near 1.1400EUR/USD falls after failing to extend recovery above 1.1400 in Thursday’s European session. However, the overall outlook of the major currency pair is strongly bullish as all short-to-long Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) slope higher.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds above 70.00, indicating a strong bullish momentum.Looking up, the psychological level of 1.1500 will be the major resistance for the pair. Conversely, the April 11 low of 1.1190 will be the key support for the Euro bulls. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

11:02 GBP/JPY Price Analysis: Tests crucial resistance zone at nine-day EMA near 189.00
GBP/JPY recovers its recent losses from the previous session, trading around 188.90 during the early European hours on Thursday.

10:55 Palladium price today: Rare metals down at the start of the European session
Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade with a negative tone at the beginning of Thursday, according to FXStreet data. Palladium (XPD) changes hands at $954.32 a troy ounce, with the XPD/USD pair easing from its previous close at $972.85.

Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade with a negative tone at the beginning of Thursday, according to FXStreet data. Palladium (XPD) changes hands at $954.32 a troy ounce, with the XPD/USD pair easing from its previous close at $972.85.In the meantime, Platinum (XPT) trades at $965.11 against the United States Dollar (USD) early in the European session, also under pressure after the XPT/USD pair settled at $972.70 at the previous close.

10:34 Chinese Commerce Ministry: China is open to negotiations on economic, trade areas
Chinese Commerce Ministry said on Thursday that Bejing “is open to negotiations on economic and trade areas.”

10:21 Crude Oil price today: WTI price bullish at European opening
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Thursday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $62.22 per barrel, up from Wednesday’s close at $61.95.Brent Oil Exchange Rate (Brent crude) is also up, advancing from the $65.34 price posted on Wednesday, and trading at $65.54.

10:14 USD/CAD gathers strength above 1.3850 as Fed remains in wait-and-see mode
The USD/CAD pair strengthens to near 1.3885 during the early European session on Thursday. Hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Powell and stronger Retail Sales provide some support for the Greenback. Trading volume is likely to be lightened ahead of the Good Friday holiday.

10:06 US Dollar Index maintains position around 99.50 ahead of Initial Jobless Claims data
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of six major currencies, is slightly stronger, hovering around 99.50, buoyed by solid consumer spending data.

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US Retail Sales rose by 1.4% in March, outperforming both the previous month’s 0.2% increase and market expectations of a 1.3% gain, according to data released on Wednesday. Market participants now shift their attention to upcoming US economic indicators, including Building Permits, Housing Starts, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, and weekly Initial Jobless Claims.However, the broader US Dollar outlook remains under pressure amid ongoing investor uncertainty stemming from unpredictable US trade and economic policies. Tensions have intensified following President Donald Trump’s decision to launch a new investigation into potential tariffs on key minerals. The probe, targeting industries such as copper, pharmaceuticals, lumber, and semiconductors, highlights concerns over the US's limited domestic production capacity in strategic sectors, further escalating the trade rift with China.Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell addressed the economic outlook during a speech at the Economic Club of Chicago, noting that the US economy remains “solid” despite heightened uncertainty and downside risks. Powell reiterated that the Fed is well-positioned to wait for greater clarity before adjusting its policy stance, citing near-maximum employment and inflation slightly above the 2% target, though it has moderated significantly.Meanwhile, a recent survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York suggested a surge in consumer pessimism, with more households anticipating higher inflation, weaker job prospects, and tighter credit conditions in the months ahead. Financial markets are now pricing in a potential resumption of rate cuts starting in June, with expectations that the policy rate, currently at 4.25%–4.50 % — could be lowered by a full percentage point by year-end. US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

10:00 European Central Bank set to cut interest rates again amid easing inflation and tariff uncertainty
The European Central Bank (ECB) will announce its April interest rate decision on Thursday at 12:15 GMT. Markets widely expect the central bank to lower key rates for the sixth consecutive time.

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Markets widely expect the central bank to lower key rates for the sixth consecutive time.ECB President Christine Lagarde will hold a press conference at 12:45 GMT. At this conference, she will deliver the prepared statement on monetary policy and respond to questions from the media.The Euro (EUR) remains poised for a big reaction to the ECB announcements against the US Dollar (USD).What to expect from the European Central Bank interest rate decision?The ECB is set to deliver another 25 basis points (bps) cut after the April policy meeting, reducing the benchmark rate on the deposit facility to 2.25% from 2.5%, with the disinflation process remaining on track.Data released by Eurostat showed that the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) in the Eurozone rose 2.2% year-over-year (YoY) in March, after recording a 2.3% increase in February. Additionally, the annual core HICP inflation softened to 2.4% from 2.6% in the same period. Investors will scrutinize the policy statement to see how the ECB expects the United States’ new trade regime to impact the inflation outlook and growth prospects in the European Union (EU). Previewing the ECB’s April meeting, TD Securities analysts said they forecast a 25 bps reduction in rates. “Key focus in the press conference should be on economic uncertainty pertaining to trade policies and global demand going forward. As such, wording on future rate path is likely to be vague and stress data dependency,” analysts noted.Earlier in the month, ECB Governing Council member Gediminas Šimkus argued that the US tariff decisions warrant a more accommodative monetary policy and added that a 25 bps cut will be needed in April. Although the US and the EU agreed to a 90-day pause in reciprocal tariffs since then, there are still a lot of uncertainties regarding what the EU-US trade relations will look like after the grace period. Citing people familiar with discussions, Bloomberg reported earlier this week that the EU was expecting a bulk of the US import tariffs to remain in place after little progress was made in negotiations that took place on Monday. Related news The ECB survey warning on weak Eurozone private investment Tariff pause will be a welcome relief for ECB members – Risks to Euro Area growth remain elevated ECB's Villeroy: Trump's economic and financial agenda is the wrong path How could the ECB meeting impact EUR/USD?EUR/USD gained more than 4% in March and is already up about 5% since the beginning of April. During this period, the intense selling pressure surrounding the US Dollar (USD) on growing fears over an economic downturn as a result of deepening trade conflicts fuelled the pair’s rally. In case the ECB policy statement, or President Lagarde, suggests that they remain confident about the disinflation process resuming, despite the tariff uncertainty, investors could see this as a sign of further policy-easing in the near future. A pessimistic tone about the economic outlook could reaffirm this view. In this scenario, the Euro could come under selling pressure with the immediate reaction, opening the door to a downward correction in EUR/USD. On the other hand, the Euro could continue to outperform the USD if the ECB puts more emphasis on upside inflation risks and signals a possible pause in rate cuts, citing the need for more time to assess the impact of tariffs. Eren Sengezer, European Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, offers a brief technical outlook for EUR/USD:“EUR/USD trades near the upper limit of a two-month-old ascending regression channel and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart holds above 70, suggesting that the pair could stage a technical correction before the next leg higher.”“On the downside, the mid-point of the ascending channel aligns as a key support level at 1.1200. If EUR/USD makes a daily close below this level, 1.1100 (static level) could be seen as interim support ahead of 1.1000 (psychological level, 20-day Simple Moving Average). Looking north, resistances could be spotted at 1.1435 (upper limit of the ascending channel), 1.1500 (round level, static level) and 1.1580 (static level),” Sengezer added. ECB FAQs What is the ECB and how does it influence the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Euro? In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Euro? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.

09:59 India Gold price today: Gold eases from all-time highs
Despite looming tariff uncertainty, the US Dollat attempts a bounce heading toward Good Friday, fuelling a mild retreat in Comex Gold price from all-time highs of $3,358 reached early Thursday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Despite looming tariff uncertainty, the US Dollat attempts a bounce heading toward Good Friday, fuelling a mild retreat in Comex Gold price from all-time highs of $3,358 reached early Thursday. Gold price in India follows suits and corrects slightly on Thursday. Traders look to cash in on their Gold long positions, bracing for the Easter weekend. When writing, Gold price is trading at 9,162.30 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 9,195.28 it cost on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet. Meanwhile, the price for Gold edged a tad lower to INR 106,863.80 per tola from INR 107,251.90 per tola a day earlier. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 9,162.30 10 Grams 91,620.00 Tola 106,863.80 Troy Ounce 284,975.40 Global Market Movers: Gold price pause for a breather amid receding safe-haven demand The US Census Bureau reported on Wednesday that Retail Sales climbed 1.4% in March, the most in over two years. The reading followed a revised 0.2% increase in the previous month and was better than the market expectation for a 1.3% rise. Adding to this Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the US central bank was not inclined to cut interest rates in the near future, citing the potential inflationary pressure stemming from US President Donald Trump's aggressive tariffs policies. Meanwhile, the equity market in Asia-Pacific largely advanced on Thursday, which, along with the emergence of some US Dollar (USD) buying, holds back traders from placing fresh bullish bets and caps the upside for the Gold price. US President Donald Trump kickstarted a bitter trade war with China earlier this month and raised tariffs to an unprecedented 145%. China retaliated with 125% duties on US goods and imposed new export licensing restrictions on seven rare earths. The US government also imposed new licensing requirements and limited exports of H20 artificial intelligence chips to China. Meanwhile, China’s Foreign Ministry said that Beijing will pay no attention if the US continues to play the tariff game. Investors remain worried that tit-for-tat tariffs the world's two countries are imposing on one another will hinder global economic growth. This keeps a lid on any optimism in the market and continues to support the safe-haven commodity. Moreover, traders are still pricing in the possibility that the US central bank will resume its rate-cutting cycle in June. This holds back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets and further acts as a tailwind for the non-yielding yellow metal. Traders now look forward to the US economic docket – featuring the release of the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, and housing market data – and Fed-speak to grab short-term opportunities. FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

09:54 Forex Today: Market mood improves as focus shifts to ECB
Here is what you need to know on Thursday, April 17:

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The European Central Bank (ECB) will announce monetary policy decisions later in the day, and ECB President Christine Lagarde will speak on the outlook and respond to questions in a press conference. The US economic calendar will feature weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Housing Starts data for March. US Dollar PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.01% -1.10% -0.88% 0.21% -0.86% -1.39% -0.15% EUR -0.01% -0.62% -0.44% 0.65% -0.14% -0.97% 0.28% GBP 1.10% 0.62% 0.57% 1.27% 0.49% -0.34% 0.91% JPY 0.88% 0.44% -0.57% 1.08% -0.21% -0.71% 0.92% CAD -0.21% -0.65% -1.27% -1.08% -1.03% -1.59% -0.43% AUD 0.86% 0.14% -0.49% 0.21% 1.03% -0.82% 0.41% NZD 1.39% 0.97% 0.34% 0.71% 1.59% 0.82% 1.28% CHF 0.15% -0.28% -0.91% -0.92% 0.43% -0.41% -1.28% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). Wall Street's main indexes suffered large losses on Wednesday on growing fears over a deepening trade conflict between China and the United States (US). During the early trading hours of the Asian session on Thursday, China’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement that they will pay no attention if the US were to continue to play the "tariff numbers game." Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said negotiators had made “big progress” following a meeting with Japanese representatives in Washington about tariffs. While speaking at the Economic Club of Chicago late Wednesday, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated that the Fed is well-positioned to wait for greater clarity before considering any changes to the policy stance. "Our obligation is to keep longer-term inflation expectations well-anchored," Powell noted. After losing about 0.8% on Wednesday, the US Dollar (USD) Index stages a rebound and stays in positive territory above 99.50 on Thursday.EUR/USD gained more than 1% on Wednesday and registered its highest daily close since February 2022 at 1.1400. The pair corrects lower in the European morning on Thursday and trades slightly above 1.1350. The ECB is widely expected to lower key rates by 25 basis points (bps) following the April policy meeting. Investors will scrutinize the statement language and President Lagarde's comments, given the uncertainty surrounding the inflation and growth outlook on the new US trade regime. Related news Morning briefing: The ECB meeting outcome today The ECB survey warning on weak Eurozone private investment Tariff pause will be a welcome relief for ECB members – Risks to Euro Area growth remain elevated USD/CAD came under bearish pressure on Wednesday and closed the day deep in negative territory. The Bank of Canada (BoC) announced that it left the policy rate unchanged at 2.75%, as widely anticipated. In the policy statement, the BoC refrained from gibing forward guidance, citing the elevated uncertainty due to the impact of US tariffs. The pair holds its ground on Thursday and recovers toward 1.3900.The data from Australia showed earlier in the day that the Unemployment Rate edged higher to 4.1% in March from 4% in February. In this period, Employment Change was +32.2, up sharply from the 57.5K decline recorded previously but below the market expectation for an increase of +40K. AUD/USD registered gains for the sixth consecutive day on Wednesday but reversed its direction during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. At the time of press, the pair was down 0.5% on the day at 0.6340.GBP/USD closed marginally higher on Wednesday as the softer-than-expected inflation data from the UK limited Pound Sterling's strength. The pair stretches lower in the European session on Thursday but manages to hold above 1.3200.Gold benefited from safe-haven demand on Wednesday and gained more than 3.5% on Wednesday. After touching a new all-time high above $3,350 in the Asian session on Thursday, XAU/USD entered a consolidation phase and retreated to the $3,330 area.USD/JPY lost about 1% and slumped to its weakest level since September below 142.00. The pair gains traction on Thursday and trades above 142.50. Japan's Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa said that officials agreed to hold a second meeting with the United States this month for the next round of trade negotiations. In the meantime, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda repeated on Thursday that the central bank will raise the policy rate if the economic outlook is achieved. ECB FAQs What is the ECB and how does it influence the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Euro? In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Euro? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.

09:02 EUR/GBP holds below 0.8600 ahead of ECB rate decision
The EUR/GBP cross attracts some sellers to around 0.8590 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. The Euro (EUR) weakens against the Pound Sterling (GBP) as the European Central Bank (ECB) is anticipated to deliver a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut later in the session.

09:00 Switzerland Exports (MoM) increased to 30239M in March from previous 24744M
Switzerland Exports (MoM) increased to 30239M in March from previous 24744M

09:00 Switzerland Imports (MoM) climbed from previous 19941M to 23889M in March
Switzerland Imports (MoM) climbed from previous 19941M to 23889M in March

09:00 Switzerland Trade Balance increased to 6350M in March from previous 4803M
Switzerland Trade Balance increased to 6350M in March from previous 4803M

09:00 Germany Producer Price Index (MoM) below forecasts (-0.1%) in March: Actual (-0.7%)
Germany Producer Price Index (MoM) below forecasts (-0.1%) in March: Actual (-0.7%)

09:00 Germany Producer Price Index (YoY) below forecasts (0.4%) in March: Actual (-0.2%)
Germany Producer Price Index (YoY) below forecasts (0.4%) in March: Actual (-0.2%)

08:54 BoJ’s Nagakawa: Financial markets are reflecting uncertain situation
Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member Junko Nagakawa is back on the wires on Thursday, that “financial markets are reflecting uncertain situation.”

08:29 NZD/USD Price Forecast: Extends rejection slide from 50% Fibo.; drops to 0.5900 neighborhood
The NZD/USD pair retreats from the vicinity of mid-0.5900s, or a fresh year-to-date high touched during the Asian session this Thursday, in reaction to stronger-than-expected consumer inflation figures from New Zealand.

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Spot prices drop to the 0.5900 neighborhood in the last hour and for now, seem to have snapped a six-day winning streak amid a modest US Dollar (USD) uptick.Furthermore, the fact that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained comfortably within the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) 1–3% target range for a third consecutive quarter failed to shift expectations of further easing. This undermines the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and contributes to the NZD/USD pair's slide from the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the September 2024-April 2025 downfall. Meanwhile, the recent breakout through the very important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) for the first time since October 2024 was seen as a key trigger for bullish traders. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart are holding comfortably in positive territory and are still away from being in the overbought zone. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the NZD/USD pair is to the upside. Hence, any subsequent fall might still be seen as a buying opportunity near the 0.5860-0.5855 region. This is closely followed by the 200-day SMA, currently around the 0.5840 zone, and the 0.5825 region, or the 38.2% Fibo. level, which should help limit any further decline. A convincing break below the latter, however, might prompt technical selling and drag the NZD/USD pair towards testing sub-0.5800 levels.On the flip side, bulls might wait for sustained strength and acceptance above the 50% Fibo. level, around the 0.5930 region, before placing fresh bets. The NZD/USD pair might then accelerate the positive momentum towards the 0.5970 horizontal resistance en route to the 0.6000 psychological mark and the 61.8% Fibo. level, around the 0.6040 area.NZD/USD daily chart New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

08:01 USD/CHF holds gains near 0.8150, hovers near multi-year lows due to safe-haven demand
The USD/CHF pair is attempting to recover from recent losses registered in the previous session, trading around 0.8160 during Thursday’s Asian hours. However, it remains close to the 0.8099 mark—its lowest level since September 2011, touched on April 11.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/CHF remains close to the 0.8099 mark—its lowest level since September 2011.The US Dollar remains under pressure as investor uncertainty lingers amid the unpredictable trajectory of US trade and economic policy.The Swiss Franc has appreciated due to safe-haven demand amid heightened global trade tensions.The USD/CHF pair is attempting to recover from recent losses registered in the previous session, trading around 0.8160 during Thursday’s Asian hours. However, it remains close to the 0.8099 mark—its lowest level since September 2011, touched on April 11.The US Dollar (USD) continues to face headwinds as investor uncertainty persists due to the unpredictable nature of US trade and economic policy. In contrast, the Swiss Franc (CHF) is bolstered by safe-haven inflows, further pressuring the USD/CHF pair.Tensions have escalated after US President Donald Trump launched an investigation into potential tariffs on key minerals, expanding the trade dispute with China. The probe includes critical sectors such as copper, pharmaceuticals, lumber, and semiconductors, underscoring concerns over the US's limited domestic production in these industries.Despite broader Dollar weakness, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is slightly firmer, trading near 99.60, supported by robust consumer spending data. US Retail Sales jumped 1.4% in March, beating both February’s 0.2% rise and market expectations of a 1.3% increase, data showed on Wednesday. Traders now turn their focus to upcoming US data releases, including Building Permits, Housing Starts, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, and weekly Initial Jobless Claims.Since the tariff announcement on April 2, the Swiss Franc (CHF) has appreciated more than 7%, emerging as one of the strongest major currencies. Investors are increasingly turning to the Franc as a safe-haven asset amid heightened global trade tensions and erratic policy signals from the US.Meanwhile, the sharp appreciation of the CHF has fueled deflationary pressures in Switzerland, prompting speculation that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) might revisit the idea of reintroducing negative interest rates. Although the SNB has a history of intervening to curb Franc strength, it is now treading more carefully to avoid attracting criticism from Washington. Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.

07:59 EUR/USD Price Forecast: Softens to near 1.1350, overbought RSI condition eyed
The EUR/USD pair attracts some sellers to around 1.1365 during the early European session on Thursday. Traders might prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision later on Thursday.

07:40 FX option expiries for Apr 17 NY cut
FX option expiries for Apr 17 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

FX option expiries for Apr 17 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.EUR/USD: EUR amounts1.1200 1.1b1.1225 831m1.1250 877m1.1360 775m1.1500 781mGBP/USD: GBP amounts 1.3300 433mUSD/JPY: USD amounts 143.50 853m145.00 1.4bAUD/USD: AUD amounts0.6200 665m0.6300 557m0.6400 958mUSD/CAD: USD amounts 1.3685 1.3b1.3950 1.2b1.4000 2b

07:40 EUR/JPY trades with positive bias above 162.00; lacks follow-through ahead of ECB
The EUR/JPY cross attracts buyers for the second straight day and climbs back above the 162.00 mark during the Asian session on Thursday.

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BoJ rate hike bets, rising trade tensions, and recession fears could limit losses for the JPY. A modest USD bounce weighs on the Euro and might cap the cross ahead of the ECB.The EUR/JPY cross attracts buyers for the second straight day and climbs back above the 162.00 mark during the Asian session on Thursday. The intraday move higher is sponsored by the offered tone surrounding the Japanese Yen (JPY), though it is likely to remain capped as traders might opt to wait for the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision.The ECB is widely expected to cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points (bps), marking the sixth straight reduction amid the softening inflation and escalating trade risks. In fact, the final readings from Eurostat published on Wednesday showed that headline inflation in the Eurozone eased to 2.2% year-on-year in March, down from 2.6% the previous month. Moreover, core inflation, which strips out volatile components such as energy and food, fell to 2.4%, or the lowest since January 2022. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump imposed a 20% reciprocal tariff on EU imports before pausing for 90 days in pursuit of bilateral trade deals. However, a blanket 10% import tariffs remain in place, affecting around €380 billion worth of European goods. This has been fueling economic uncertainty, which might force the ECB to take a more dovish approach and show more concern over growth. Hence, the focus will also be on the ECB's updated economic projections and press conference.Investors will closely scrutinize ECB President Christine Lagarde's comments for cues about the future interest rate path, which, in turn, will play a key role in influencing the Euro and provide a fresh impetus to the EUR/JPY cross. Heading into the key central bank event risk, a positive risk tone is seen undermining the safe-haven JPY and acting as a tailwind for spot prices. However, a modest US Dollar (USD) bounce weighs on the Euro and should cap any meaningful upside for the cross. Moreover, the growing acceptance that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue raising interest rates in 2025, the rapidly escalating US-China trade war, and global recession fears might continue to support the JPY. This makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before placing fresh bullish bets around the EUR/JPY cross. Even from a technical perspective, the recent repeated failures to find acceptance above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) warrant some caution for bulls. Economic Indicator ECB Main Refinancing Operations Rate One of the three key interest rates set by the European Central Bank (ECB), the main refinancing operations rate is the interest rate the ECB charges to banks for one-week long loans. It is announced by the European Central Bank at its eight scheduled annual meetings. If the ECB expects inflation to rise, it will increase its interest rates to bring it back down to its 2% target. This tends to be bullish for the Euro (EUR), since it attracts more foreign capital inflows. Likewise, if the ECB sees inflation falling it may cut the main refinancing operations rate to encourage banks to borrow and lend more, in the hope of driving economic growth. This tends to weaken the Euro as it reduces its attractiveness as a place for investors to park capital. Read more. Next release: Thu Apr 17, 2025 12:15 Frequency: Irregular Consensus: 2.4% Previous: 2.65% Source: European Central Bank

07:30 Netherlands, The Unemployment Rate s.a (3M) increased to 3.9% in March from previous 3.8%
Netherlands, The Unemployment Rate s.a (3M) increased to 3.9% in March from previous 3.8%

07:16 Gold price bulls pause for a breather after the recent run up to a fresh record high
Gold price (XAU/USD) consolidates the previous day's blowout rally and oscillates in a range near the all-time high touched during the Asian session on Thursday amid mixed fundamental cues.

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Gold price (XAU/USD) consolidates the previous day's blowout rally and oscillates in a range near the all-time high touched during the Asian session on Thursday amid mixed fundamental cues. The upbeat US Retail Sales data and Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell's hawkish comments on Wednesday assist the US Dollar (USD) to gain some positive traction. This, along with a generally positive tone around the equity markets, holds back traders from placing fresh bullish bets around the commodity amid slightly overbought conditions on short-term charts. Meanwhile, traders are still pricing in the possibility that the US central bank will lower borrowing costs at least three times by the end of this year, which might cap any meaningful USD appreciation amid the weakening confidence in the US economy. Adding to this, the escalating US-China trade war should act as a tailwind for safe-haven assets and contribute to limiting losses for the Gold price. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before confirming a near-term top for the bullion and positioning for a deeper corrective decline. Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price continues to draw support from rising trade tensionsThe US Census Bureau reported on Wednesday that Retail Sales climbed 1.4% in March, the most in over two years. The reading followed a revised 0.2% increase in the previous month and was better than the market expectation for a 1.3% rise.Adding to this Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the US central bank was not inclined to cut interest rates in the near future, citing the potential inflationary pressure stemming from US President Donald Trump's aggressive tariffs policies. Meanwhile, the equity market in Asia-Pacific largely advanced on Thursday, which, along with the emergence of some US Dollar (USD) buying, holds back traders from placing fresh bullish bets and caps the upside for the Gold price. US President Donald Trump kickstarted a bitter trade war with China earlier this month and raised tariffs to an unprecedented 145%. China retaliated with 125% duties on US goods and imposed new export licensing restrictions on seven rare earths.The US government also imposed new licensing requirements and limited exports of H20 artificial intelligence chips to China. Meanwhile, China’s Foreign Ministry said that Beijing will pay no attention if the US continues to play the tariff game.Investors remain worried that tit-for-tat tariffs the world's two countries are imposing on one another will hinder global economic growth. This keeps a lid on any optimism in the market and continues to support the safe-haven commodity. Moreover, traders are still pricing in the possibility that the US central bank will resume its rate-cutting cycle in June. This holds back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets and further acts as a tailwind for the non-yielding yellow metal.Traders now look forward to the US economic docket – featuring the release of the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, and housing market data – and Fed-speak to grab short-term opportunities. Gold price might consolidate its recent strong gains amid a slightly overbought daily RSIFrom a technical perspective, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is holding above the 70 mark and flashing overbought conditions. This makes it prudent to wait for some near-term consolidation or a modest pullback before positioning for an extension of a well-established uptrend witnessed over the past four months or so. In the meantime, any corrective pullback could be seen as an opportunity to initial fresh bullish positions and is more likely to remain cushioned near the $3,300 mark. The latter should act as a key pivotal point, which if broken decisively could pave the way for deeper losses. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

07:05 WTI holds gains near $62.50 due to concerns over tighter global supply
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude Oil price extends its gains for a second consecutive day, trading around $62.40 per barrel during Asian hours on Thursday. The rally is fueled by concerns over tighter global supply following new US sanctions on Iran.

06:28 GBP/USD trades below 1.3250 after retreating from six-month highs
GBP/USD snaps its seven-day winning streak, easing to around 1.3230 during Thursday’s Asian session after retreating from a six-month high of 1.3292 reached on Wednesday.

06:25 RBNZ Sectoral Factor Inflation Model drops to 2.9% YoY in Q1 2025
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) published its Sectoral Factor Model Inflation gauge for the first quarter of 2025, following the release of the official Consumer Price Index (CPI) by the NZ Stats early Thursday.

06:06 USD/INR recovers on trade war worries
The Indian Rupee (INR) loses ground on Thursday, snapping the five-day winning streak. A weakening Chinese Yuan amid the escalating trade war put pressure on most Asian currencies, including the Indian currency.

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Weaker Chinese Yuan and higher crude oil prices weigh on the INR. The US weekly Initial Jobless Claims and housing data will be released later on Thursday. The Indian Rupee (INR) loses ground on Thursday, snapping the five-day winning streak. A weakening Chinese Yuan amid the escalating trade war put pressure on most Asian currencies, including the Indian currency. A recovery in crude oil prices contributes to the INR’s downside as India is the world's third-largest oil consumer. Nonetheless, the optimism surrounding Indian stocks could provide some support to the local currency. The Indian benchmark indices have recovered all losses sparked by Trump’s reciprocal tariffs earlier this month. The nation’s big domestic economy is seen as able to withstand a potential global recession better than many peers, who face higher tariffs. Looking ahead, investors await the US Building Permits, Housing Starts, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, and the weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which are due later on Thursday. The Indian market will be closed on Good Friday. Indian Rupee edges lower amid heightened trade tensions “The yuan is an anchor currency for Asian markets,” said Sakshi Gupta, principal economist at HDFC Bank. “The RBI may be comfortable with some amount of depreciation if our peers are also depreciating, from a competitiveness perspective.”Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that trade tensions risk undermining the Fed’s employment and inflation goals. Powell added that US economic growth appears to be slowing, with consumer spending growing modestly, a rush of imports to avoid tariffs likely to weigh on estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and sentiment souring. The US Retail Sales rose by 1.4% in March, followed by the 0.2% increase seen in February, according to the US Census Bureau on Wednesday. This figure came in better than the estimation of 1.3%. Financial markets expect the Fed to resume rate cuts in June and that by year-end the policy rate, currently in the 4.25%-4.50% range, will be a full percentage point lower.USD/INR’s bearish bias prevails under the 100-day EMAThe Indian Rupee trades in negative territory on the day. The negative view of the USD/INR pair remains intact, with the price holding below the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily timeframe. The path of least resistance is to the downside as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands below the midline near 41.60.The first downside target to watch is 85.51, the low of April 16. Any follow-through selling below this level could see a drop to 85.20, the low of April 3, followed by 84.95, the low of April 4. On the other hand, the 85.90-86.00 zone appears to be a tough nut to crack for bulls, representing the 100-day EMA and the psychological level. Sustained trading above the mentioned level could pave the way to 86.61, the high of April 10. Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.

05:55 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD moves below $32.50 due to easing trade concerns
Silver (XAG/USD) is trading around $32.30 per troy ounce during Thursday’s Asian session, paring some of its gains from the previous day.

05:43 Japanese Yen retreats from multi-month high against USD; bullish bias remains intact
The Japanese Yen (JPY) retreats after hitting a fresh multi-month high against its American counterpart during the Asian session Thursday, though any meaningful downside still seems elusive.

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A modest USD uptick also contributes to the USD/JPY pair’s recovery of over 100 pips.Trade-war woes and divergent BoJ-Fed policy expectations should limit JPY losses.The Japanese Yen (JPY) retreats after hitting a fresh multi-month high against its American counterpart during the Asian session Thursday, though any meaningful downside still seems elusive. A slight improvement in the global risk sentiment – as depicted by a generally positive tone around the equity markets – is seen undermining the safe-haven JPY. This, along with a modest US Dollar (USD) bounce from the vicinity of the multi-year low contributes to the USD/JPY pair's intraday recovery of over 100 pips from the 141.60 area. However, the uncertainty around US President Donald Trump's tariff announcement, the rapidly escalating US-China trade war, and global recession fears might keep a lid on any market optimism. Moreover, expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates further – though it might delay the decision amid concerns about the economic damage caused by Trump's tariffs – should continue to act as a tailwind for the JPY. Adding to this hopes for a US-Japan trade deal might also contribute to limiting deeper JPY losses. Japanese Yen bulls opt to take some profits off the table amid positive risk tone; downside potential seems limitedAsian equity markets and US stock index futures edge higher on Thursday following the overnight tech-led slump on Wall Street, undermining traditional safe-haven assets, including the Japanese Yen. A former Bank of Japan executive director Kenzo Yamamoto said that the central bank will likely delay raising rates and wants to see how US-Japan trade talks proceed before making any move.On Wednesday, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled the potential to pause the rate-hiking cycle and said that the central bank may need to take policy action if US tariffs hurt the Japanese economy.Moreover, Reuters – citing three sources – reported that the BoJ is set to cut its economic growth forecasts at the April 30-May 1 meeting as US tariffs heighten risks to the fragile economic recovery.The US Dollar attracts some buyers and reverses a part of the previous day's slide back closer to a multi-year trough in the wake of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's hawkish comments. Powell said the US central bank was not inclined to cut interest rates in the near future amid still sticky inflation and economic uncertainties introduced by US President Donald Trump's tariffs. This came on top of the upbeat US Retail Sales, which rose sharply by 1.4% in March, following a revised 0.2% increase in the previous month, which offers additional support to the Greenback. The markets, however, are still pricing in the possibility that the Fed will lower borrowing costs at least three times this year amid growing concerns about a tariffs-driven US economic slowdown.In the latest development surrounding the US-China trade fight, the US government imposed new licensing requirements and limited exports of H20 artificial intelligence chips to China.This comes after China raised its tariffs on imports of US goods to 125% last Friday in a retaliatory move to Trump's decision to effectively raise US tariffs on Chinese goods to 145%. In contrast, Trump said negotiators had made “big progress” in trade talks with a Japanese delegation in Washington about the barrage of tariffs he has imposed on global imports.Adding to this, Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said that talks with the US were constructive and that the government will continue to consider trade negotiations a top priority.Furthermore, Japan's Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa said that the officials agreed to hold a second meeting this month and believed that the US wants a deal within the 90-day window.This, in turn, fuels optimism that Japan might strike a trade deal with the US, which, along with expectations that the BoJ will hike interest rates in 2025, should limit deeper JPY losses. BoJ board member Junko Nagakawa said that if the outlook for economic activity and prices is realized, the central bank will continue to raise rates and adjust the degree of monetary accommodation.Traders now look to the US economic docket – featuring the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, and housing market data – for a fresh impetus. USD/JPY is likely to attract fresh sellers at higher levels; not out of the woods yet amid a bearish technical setupFrom a technical perspective, the overnight breakdown and close below the 142.00 mark was seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders. Moreover, negative oscillators on the daily chart suggest that the path of least resistance for the USD/JPY pair remains to the downside. Hence, any subsequent move up beyond the 143.00 round figure could be seen as a selling opportunity near the 143.55-143.60 region and remain capped near the 144.00 round figure. A sustained strength beyond the latter, however, might trigger a short-covering rally to the 144.45-144.50 horizontal barrier en route to the 145.00 psychological mark. On the flip side, the 142.00 round figure now seems to protect the immediate downside ahead of the 141.60 area, or a multi-month low touched during the Asian session. Some follow-through selling will reaffirm the negative bias and pave the way for an extension of the USD/JPY pair's recent well-established downtrend witnessed over the past three months or so. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

05:12 Australian Dollar holds losses following employment data release
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is trading lower against the US Dollar (USD), snapping a six-day winning streak.

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The AUD/USD pair remains under pressure following the release of Australia’s employment data on Thursday, which showed the Unemployment Rate rising to 4.1% in March, slightly below the market forecast of 4.2%. Meanwhile, Employment Change came in at 32.2K, against the consensus forecast of 40K. The AUD found some support from improved global risk sentiment after US President Donald Trump announced exemptions for key technology products from newly proposed “reciprocal” tariffs. These exemptions, which include smartphones, computers, semiconductors, solar cells, and flat-panel displays, largely benefit goods produced in China, Australia’s largest trading partner and a major buyer of its commodities.Markets remain cautious amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding US trade policy. The Trump administration is now considering tariffs on imports of semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. On the domestic front, the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) April policy Meeting Minutes suggested uncertainty about the timing of the next interest rate adjustment. While the RBA hinted that the May meeting could be an appropriate time to reassess monetary policy, no firm decision has been made. Markets are currently pricing in a 25-basis point rate cut in May, with expectations of around 120 basis points of easing over the next year. Attention now turns to Thursday’s employment report, which could offer crucial labor market insights and guide the RBA’s next policy move.Australian Dollar depreciates as US Dollar rebounds due to stronger consumer spendingThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against a basket of six major currencies, is trading higher at nearly 99.60 at the time of writing. The US Building Permits, Housing Starts, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, and the weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be published later on Thursday.US Retail Sales rose by 1.4% in March, followed by the 0.2% increase seen in February. This figure came in better than the estimation of 1.3%.A recent consumer sentiment survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York shows a sharp increase in the number of households expecting higher inflation, weaker job prospects, and worsening credit conditions in the coming months.Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic remarked during early Tuesday’s market session that the US central bank still has a long road ahead to achieve its 2% inflation target, casting doubt on market expectations for additional interest rate cuts.The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation eased to 2.4% year-over-year in March, down from 2.8% in February and below the market forecast of 2.6%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 2.8% annually, compared to 3.1% previously and missing the 3.0% estimate. On a monthly basis, headline CPI dipped by 0.1%, while core CPI edged up by 0.1%.Australia’s Westpac Leading Index’s six-month annualised growth rate, which forecasts economic momentum relative to the trend over the next three to nine months, eased to 0.6% in March from 0.9% in February.China’s economy grew at an annual rate of 5.4% in the first quarter of 2025, matching the pace seen in Q4 2024 and surpassing market expectations of 5.1%. On a quarterly basis, GDP rose by 1.2% in Q1, following a 1.6% increase in the previous quarter, falling short of the forecasted 1.4% gain.Meanwhile, China’s Retail Sales surged 5.9% year-over-year, beating expectations of 4.2% and up from February’s 4%. Industrial Production also outperformed, rising 7.7% compared to the 5.6% forecast and February’s 5.9% print.Australian Dollar tests immediate support at 0.6350 despite bullish bias remaining intactThe AUD/USD pair is trading near the 0.6360 level on Thursday, with technical indicators on the daily chart suggesting a bullish bias. The pair remains above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds above the neutral 50 level, reinforcing the positive momentum. On the upside, key resistance is seen at the psychological 0.6400 level, followed by the four-month high of 0.6408, last reached on February 21.Initial support is located at the 9-day EMA around 0.6285. A break below this level could undermine the short-term bullish trend and potentially expose the pair to further downside toward the 0.5914 region—its lowest since March 2020—and the critical psychological level at 0.5900.AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.17% 0.15% 0.51% 0.13% 0.15% 0.28% 0.48% EUR -0.17% -0.07% 0.31% -0.08% -0.04% 0.06% 0.27% GBP -0.15% 0.07% 0.38% -0.01% 0.03% 0.14% 0.35% JPY -0.51% -0.31% -0.38% -0.40% -0.37% -0.35% -0.05% CAD -0.13% 0.08% 0.01% 0.40% 0.05% 0.14% 0.36% AUD -0.15% 0.04% -0.03% 0.37% -0.05% 0.11% 0.31% NZD -0.28% -0.06% -0.14% 0.35% -0.14% -0.11% 0.21% CHF -0.48% -0.27% -0.35% 0.05% -0.36% -0.31% -0.21% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

04:58 USD/CAD edges higher above 1.3850, BoC holds policy rate at 2.75%
The USD/CAD pair trades in positive territory near 1.3880 during the early Asian session on Thursday. However, the upside for the pad might be limited amid the escalating trade uncertainties. Traders brace for the developments surrounding US trade talks with trading partners.

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Fed's Powell said US growth appears to be slowing. The BoC has paused its streak of seven consecutive rate cuts, holding its rate at 2.75% at the April meeting. The USD/CAD pair trades in positive territory near 1.3880 during the early Asian session on Thursday. However, the upside for the pad might be limited amid the escalating trade uncertainties. Traders brace for the developments surrounding US trade talks with trading partners.Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that trade tensions risk undermining the Fed’s employment and inflation targets. Powell further stated that US economic growth appears to be slowing, with consumer spending growing modestly, a rush of imports to avoid tariffs likely to weigh on estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and sentiment souring. Financial markets expect the US central bank to resume rate cuts in June and that by year-end the policy rate, currently in the 4.25%-4.50% range, will be a full percentage point lower.Elsewhere, Retail Sales in the United States rose by 1.4% in March, followed by the 0.2% increase seen in February, according to the US Census Bureau on Wednesday. This figure came in better than the estimation of 1.3%. However, the stronger-than-expected data fails to boost the Greenback as traders wait to see if US President Donald Trump’s administration reaches new trading agreements with partners.The Bank of Canada (BoC) held its benchmark rate at 2.75% at its April meeting on Wednesday, its first pause after seven consecutive cuts. The Canadian central bank said that the uncertainty around US tariffs made it impossible to issue regular economic forecasts. Investors see nearly 50% odds the BoC will return to easing at its next policy decision at the June meeting and expect two further reductions in total by year-end. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

04:52 BoJ’s Nagakawa: If outlook realized, the BoJ will continue to raise interest rate
Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member Junko Nagakawa said on Thursday that “if the outlook for economic activity and prices is realised, the BoJ will continue to raise interest rate and adjust degree of monetary accommodation.”

Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member Junko Nagakawa said on Thursday that “if the outlook for economic activity and prices is realised, the BoJ will continue to raise interest rate and adjust degree of monetary accommodation.”Additional quotesUS tariff policy, overseas economic and market developments among risks to Japan’s economic outlook.Uncertainty over U.S. tariffs could affect household, corporate sentiment, Japan’s economy and prices.Excessive market volatility may put downward pressure on Japan’s economy.Companies still in process of passing on raw material costs.Considering current real interest rate levels, future monetary policy conduct will depend on developments in economic activity and prices as well as financial conditions.There is risk wage pressure may strengthen further, translated into sales prices.Worsening consumer sentiment could disrupt cycle of rising income and expenditure.

04:35 China’s Foreign Ministry: If US continues to play tariff numbers game, China will pay no attention
China’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement on Thursday that if the United States (US) continues to play the tariff numbers game, China will pay no attention.

China’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement on Thursday that if the United States (US) continues to play the tariff numbers game, China will pay no attention.developing story ....

04:32 Australia’s Unemployment Rate rises to 4.1% in March vs. 4.2% expected
Australia’s Unemployment Rate rose to 4.1% in March, according to the official data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Thursday. The figure came below the market consensus of 4.2%.Developing story……

Australia’s Unemployment Rate rose to 4.1% in March, according to the official data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Thursday. The figure came below the market consensus of 4.2%.

Developing story……

04:31 Australia Part-Time Employment increased to 17.2K in March from previous -17K
Australia Part-Time Employment increased to 17.2K in March from previous -17K

04:30 Australia Participation Rate below forecasts (67%) in March: Actual (66.8%)
Australia Participation Rate below forecasts (67%) in March: Actual (66.8%)

04:30 Australia Unemployment Rate s.a. came in at 4.1% below forecasts (4.2%) in March
Australia Unemployment Rate s.a. came in at 4.1% below forecasts (4.2%) in March

04:30 Australia Employment Change s.a. below expectations (40K) in March: Actual (32.2K)
Australia Employment Change s.a. below expectations (40K) in March: Actual (32.2K)

04:30 Australia Full-Time Employment up to 15K in March from previous -35.7K
Australia Full-Time Employment up to 15K in March from previous -35.7K

04:27 BoJ’s Ueda: Japan’s real interest rate remains very low
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Thursday that Japan's real interest rates remain very low. Ueda further stated that the central bank will increase the rate if the economic outlook is achieved.

04:16 Japan PM Ishiba says talks with the US were constructive
Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said on Thursday that talks with the United States were constructive, adding that the government will continue to consider trade negotiations a top priority.

04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2085 vs. 7.2133 previous
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Thursday at 7.2085 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.2133 and 7.3083 Reuters estimate.

04:01 US President Donald Trump claims ‘big progress’ in Japan trade talks
US President Donald Trump said trade talk negotiators had made “big progress” following a meeting with Japanese representatives in Washington about the barrage of tariffs he has imposed on global imports, per Reuters.

04:00 South Korea BoK Interest Rate Decision meets forecasts (2.75%)
South Korea BoK Interest Rate Decision meets forecasts (2.75%)

03:23 Japan’s Akazawa says agreed to hold a second meeting with US in April
Japan's Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa said early Thursday that the officials agreed to hold a second meeting with the United States this month.

03:13 NZD/USD trades with mild gains above 0.5900 after New Zealand’s CPI data
The NZD/USD pair extends the rally to near 0.5935 during the early Asian trading hours on Thursday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) edges slightly higher against the US Dollar (USD) after the hotter inflation data.

02:51 Japan Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance down to ¥-233.6B in March from previous ¥182.3B
Japan Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance down to ¥-233.6B in March from previous ¥182.3B

02:50 Japan Imports (YoY) below forecasts (3.1%) in March: Actual (2%)
Japan Imports (YoY) below forecasts (3.1%) in March: Actual (2%)

02:50 Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks dipped from previous ¥1808.4B to ¥1043.7B in April 11
Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks dipped from previous ¥1808.4B to ¥1043.7B in April 11

02:50 Japan Exports (YoY) came in at 3.9%, below expectations (4.5%) in March
Japan Exports (YoY) came in at 3.9%, below expectations (4.5%) in March

02:50 Japan Merchandise Trade Balance Total came in at ¥544.1B, above forecasts (¥485.3B) in March
Japan Merchandise Trade Balance Total came in at ¥544.1B, above forecasts (¥485.3B) in March

02:24 EUR/USD flat lines near 1.1400 ahead of ECB rate decision
The EUR/USD pair trades on a flat note near 1.1400 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The markets remain cautious as traders wait to see if US President Donald Trump’s administration reaches new trading agreements with partners.

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The markets remain cautious as traders wait to see if US President Donald Trump’s administration reaches new trading agreements with partners. The European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision will take center stage later on Thursday. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that trade tensions risk undermining the Fed’s employment and inflation goals. Powell added that US economic growth appears to be slowing, with consumer spending growing modestly, a rush of imports to avoid tariffs likely to weigh on estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and sentiment souring. The concerns over the economic slowdown in the US might drag the US Dollar (USD) lower and create a tailwind for the major pair. Across the pond, the ECB is widely expected to cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) on Thursday, marking a sixth consecutive reduction amid global tariff tensions and economic uncertainty. “We expect the ECB to cut policy rates by 25bp, fully priced, with dovish communication on the outlook, cracking the door open to rates below neutral,” said Bank of America economist Ruben Segura Cayuela. Traders will take more cues from the ECB Press Conference. Any dovish remarks from policymakers could weigh on the shared currency in the near term. However, analysts believe ECB President Christine Lagarde is unlikely to offer any hints about future rate reductions amid the uncertainty, and the ECB might decide its next steps as data come in. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

01:48 New Zealand’s CPI inflation rises to 2.5% YoY in Q1 vs. 2.3% expected
New Zealand’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.5% YoY in the first quarter (Q1) of 2025, compared with the 2.2% increase seen in the fourth quarter of 2024, according to the latest data published by Statistics New Zealand on Thursday.

New Zealand’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.5% YoY in the first quarter (Q1) of 2025, compared with the 2.2% increase seen in the fourth quarter of 2024, according to the latest data published by Statistics New Zealand on Thursday. The market consensus was for a growth of 2.3% in the reported period.The quarterly CPI inflation climbed to 0.9% in Q1 from the previous print of 0.5% and above the market consensus of 0.7%.

01:45 New Zealand Consumer Price Index (YoY) above expectations (2.3%) in 1Q: Actual (2.5%)
New Zealand Consumer Price Index (YoY) above expectations (2.3%) in 1Q: Actual (2.5%)

01:45 Gold price soars to fresh record high as trade tensions sink US Dollar
Gold price extended its record streak for the third time in the week as the Greenback weakened due to tensions between China and the US related to trade policies. These tensions are increasing the appeal of safety assets like precious metals.

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These tensions are increasing the appeal of safe-haven assets like precious metals. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $3,342, up more than 3.50%. The trade-war escalation turned sentiment sour as the US President Donald Trump ordered an investigation to apply tariffs on rare earth imports, escalating the dispute with China. Bullion hit record highs on Monday and Wednesday, with the all-time high (ATH) reaching $3,343. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck's performance against a basket of six currencies, dropped 0.83% to 99.17. In the meantime, Fed Chair Powell shattered rate cut expectations by stressing that the central bank must ensure tariffs don’t trigger a more persistent rise in inflation. “Our obligation is to keep longer-term inflation expectations well anchored and to make certain that a one-time increase in the price level does not become an ongoing inflation problem,” Powell said at the Economic Club of Chicago. Data-wise, US Retail Sales exceeded projections, compared to the previous reading. US Industrial Production hinted that manufacturing activity continued to slow down, This week, Gold traders await housing data and Initial Jobless Claims. Daily digest market movers: Gold price capitalizes gains on falling US yields The US 10-year Treasury yield tumbled almost six basis points to 4.281%. US real yields fell three and a half bps to 2.111%, as shown by the US 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities yields failing to cap Gold prices. Fed Chair Powell revealed that a weakening economy and high inflation could conflict with the central bank's two goals, making a stagflationary scenario possible. “We may find ourselves in the challenging scenario in which our dual-mandate goals are in tension,” he said. “If that were to occur, we would consider how far the economy is from each goal, and the potentially different time horizons over which those respective gaps would be anticipated to close.” Money market players had priced in 91 bps of easing by the Fed toward the end of 2025. The first cut is expected in July. Data-wise, US Retail Sales rose 1.4% MoM in March, beating the 1.3% forecast and surging from February’s 0.2%, boosted by strong auto sales. However, the control group—used for GDP calculations—rose just 0.4%, down from 1.3% and missing the 0.6% estimate. The Federal Reserve announced that Industrial Production fell 0.3% in March, following a 0.8% increase in February. XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold price poised to test new record highs at $3,400 Gold price uptrend remains in place with buyers eyeing the $3,350 figure. A breach of the latter will expose the $3,400 figure, followed by key psychological levels like $3,450 and $3,500. Conversely if XAU/USD falls below $3,300, the first support would be the April 16 low of $3,229, followed by the $3,200 figure. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

00:50 NZD/USD Price Analysis: Kiwi stretches gains near 0.59 but momentum signals caution
The NZD/USD pair advanced for a third session on Wednesday, holding near the 0.5900 region ahead of the Asian session. The pair saw modest gains and remained confined within a relatively tight range between 0.58865 and 0.59308, suggesting a steady bullish tone.

NZD/USD trades near the 0.5900 zone following another daily push higherMACD supports bullish bias, while RSI flirts with overbought territoryKey moving averages continue to underpin the pair’s upward trajectoryThe NZD/USD pair advanced for a third session on Wednesday, holding near the 0.5900 region ahead of the Asian session. The pair saw modest gains and remained confined within a relatively tight range between 0.58865 and 0.59308, suggesting a steady bullish tone.From a technical perspective, the broader bias remains positive. The MACD prints a buy signal, confirming continued bullish momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 65.16, edging close to overbought conditions but still neutral. Similarly, the Awesome Oscillator and the Average Directional Index (ADX) remain flat, hinting that the current uptrend lacks strong conviction.Still, the backdrop remains supportive of further gains. All major moving averages — including the 20-day SMA at 0.57318, the 100-day at 0.57083, and the 200-day at 0.58897 — are aligned in favor of buyers. The 10-day EMA (0.57905) and SMA (0.57374) also reinforce this structure, helping the pair sustain its recent upside.Immediate support is found at 0.58897, followed by 0.58421 and 0.57905. On the upside, bulls may target resistance around 0.59666 if momentum strengthens.
Daily chart

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Forex News Timeline

20:54 Forex Today: Japanese CPI data will take centre stage on Good Friday The Greenback grabbed some much-needed oxygen on Maundy Thursday despite alternating risk appetite trends.

18:34 GBP/USD hold steady near 1.3250 after mixed US economic data The Pound Sterling remained steady against the US Dollar on Thursday after US economic data suggested that the labor market remains solid, while housing data was mixed. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD trades at 1.32505 up 0.11%.

17:36 USD/CAD gives up intraday gains as USD’s recovery trims The USD/CAD pair surrenders its intraday gains and falls back to near 1.3860 during North American trading hours on Thursday.

17:30 United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change came in at 16B below forecasts (24B) in April 11 United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change came in at 16B below forecasts (24B) in April 11

17:00 United States Business Inventories dipped from previous 0.3% to 0.2% in February United States Business Inventories dipped from previous 0.3% to 0.2% in February

16:44 JPY tumbles on trade data – Scotiabank Japanese Yen (JPY) is weak, down 0.5% vs. the US Dollar (USD) and underperforming all the G10 currencies along with its haven peer Swiss Franc (CHF).

16:20 Lagarde speech: Tariffs impact is possibly negative on growth Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to lower key rates by 25 basis points at the April policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.

16:13 Lagarde speech: Meaningless to assess restrictiveness now Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to lower key rates by 25 basis points at the April policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.

16:07 USD consolidates, trump criticizes Powell – Scotiabank The US Dollar (USD) is tracking a little higher in rather calm and generally featureless trade.

16:05 Lagarde speech: Options were debated, no one argued for 50 bps cut Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to lower key rates by 25 basis points at the April policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.

16:05 Fed’s Williams: Neutral rate is still likely low New York Fed president John Williams told Fox Business on Thursday that monetary policy is “well positioned” and doesn’t need any tweaks right now.

16:00 Russia Central Bank Reserves $: $655.8B vs previous $658B Russia Central Bank Reserves $: $655.8B vs previous $658B

15:58 Lagarde speech: Strong Euro could push down inflation Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to lower key rates by 25 basis points at the April policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.

15:53 Lagarde speech: Economic outlook is clouded by uncertainty Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to lower key rates by 25 basis points at the April policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.

15:31 CBRT surprises markets with a rate hike to 46.00% The Turkish central bank (CBRT) shocked investors on Thursday with a hefty 350 bps leap in its key interest rate to 46%, abruptly reversing its easing cycle and giving the lira a modest boost.

15:31 United States Continuing Jobless Claims came in at 1.885M, above expectations (1.87M) in April 4 United States Continuing Jobless Claims came in at 1.885M, above expectations (1.87M) in April 4

15:31 Canada Canadian Portfolio Investment in Foreign Securities climbed from previous $-3.15B to $27.15B in February Canada Canadian Portfolio Investment in Foreign Securities climbed from previous $-3.15B to $27.15B in February

15:30 United States Initial Jobless Claims came in at 215K below forecasts (225K) in April 11 United States Initial Jobless Claims came in at 215K below forecasts (225K) in April 11

15:30 United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 220.75K (April 11) vs previous 223K United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 220.75K (April 11) vs previous 223K

15:30 United States Building Permits Change rose from previous -1.2% to 1.6% in March United States Building Permits Change rose from previous -1.2% to 1.6% in March

15:30 United States Housing Starts (MoM) below expectations (1.42M) in March: Actual (1.324M) United States Housing Starts (MoM) below expectations (1.42M) in March: Actual (1.324M)

15:30 United States Housing Starts Change down to -11.4% in March from previous 11.2% United States Housing Starts Change down to -11.4% in March from previous 11.2%

15:30 United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey came in at -26.4, below expectations (2) in April United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey came in at -26.4, below expectations (2) in April

15:30 United States Building Permits (MoM) came in at 1.482M, above forecasts (1.45M) in March United States Building Permits (MoM) came in at 1.482M, above forecasts (1.45M) in March

15:30 Canada Foreign Portfolio Investment in Canadian Securities came in at $-6.46B, below expectations ($12.89B) in February Canada Foreign Portfolio Investment in Canadian Securities came in at $-6.46B, below expectations ($12.89B) in February

15:15 Eurozone ECB Main Refinancing Operations Rate meets expectations (2.4%) Eurozone ECB Main Refinancing Operations Rate meets expectations (2.4%)

15:15 Eurozone ECB Rate On Deposit Facility in line with forecasts (2.25%) Eurozone ECB Rate On Deposit Facility in line with forecasts (2.25%)

14:36 India M3 Money Supply declined to 9.5% in March 31 from previous 9.6% India M3 Money Supply declined to 9.5% in March 31 from previous 9.6%

14:13 GBP/USD Price Forecast: Rally pauses near 1.3300 The GBP/USD pair ticks lower to near 1.3230 during European trading hours on Thursday. The Cable edges lower as the US Dollar (USD) attracts some bids on meaningful progress in trade talks between the United States (US) and Japan.

14:02 Gold off from fresh all-time highs on progress in US-Japan trade talks Gold price (XAU/USD) corrects slightly to near $3,312 in Thursday’s European session after hitting a fresh all-time high of $3,358 earlier in the day.

13:52 JPY bulls should be cautious about the US-Japan trade talks – DBS Japan pushes back on US tariff demands, citing economic harm and insisting on separate FX talks, DBS' FX strategist Philip Wee reports.

13:50 US Pres. Trump: Powell of Fed is always too late and wrong US President Donald Trump accused Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell of being "too late and wrong" in a post on Truth Social on Thursday.

13:43 US Dollar slides, but support holds ahead of holiday break – DBS Despite the DXY Index’s 1% fall to a three-year low of 99.26 overnight, we are cautious and mindful that the DXY has yet to break below the intra-day low of 99 seen on April 11, DBS' FX strategist Philip Wee reports.

13:07 USD: JPY weakens on trade deal optimism – MUFG The US Dollar (USD) weakened into the close of trading on Wednesday but has rebounded helped in part by optimism over the pace in which the US might be willing to reach deals with key trading partners.

12:58 NZD: Renewed rise in inflation not a problem – Commerzbank In New Zealand, a CPI indicator is published every month, but these monthly figures only cover the prices of around 44% of the basket of goods and services, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes.

12:54 Powell flags trade tariff risks, signals cuts still in play – UBS Federal Reserve Chair Powell noted US President Trump’s trade taxes would raise inflation and lower economic growth. Markets have already worked this out, but Powell saying it has policy implications.

12:51 AUD: Job market remains robust – Commerzbank After losing 57,500 jobs in February, the Australian labour market rebounded slightly in March with 32,200 new jobs, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes.

12:48 EUR/INR today: Indian Rupee cross rates down at the start of the European session Indian Rupee (INR) crosses trade with a negative bias at the start of Thursday, according to FXStreet data.

12:45 TRY: CBT may tweak some policy tools – Commerzbank The Turkish central bank (CBT) is unlikely to cut its main repo rate at today’s meeting, so soon after it had to emergency tighten rates inter-meeting following the market blow-up when Istanbul Mayor Ekrem was arrested.

12:43 TRY: The more hawkish, the more carry – ING The main event in the CEE region today is the Central Bank of Turkey meeting, ING's FX analyst Frantisek Taborsky notes.

12:30 Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Thursday, according to FXStreet data.

12:13 Japan’s Kato: Deeply concerned about US tariffs affecting Japan, world economy Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Kato said on Thursday that he is “deeply concerned about US tariffs affecting Japan, world economy.”

12:09 EUR/GBP trades in the red below 0.8600 mark ahead of ECB rate decision The EUR/GBP cross struggles to capitalize on the previous day's goodish rebound from the 0.8525-0.8520 area or a fresh weekly low and attracts some intraday sellers on Thursday.

12:05 CAD: Waiting for the tariff impact – Commerzbank The Bank of Canada (BoC) decided yesterday to keep interest rates unchanged and stressed that it would wait to see the impact of the US tariffs.

11:30 Neither hard data nor a rather hawkish Powell are helping the US Dollar – Commerzbank The US Dollar (USD) had another bad day on Wednesday, suffering several losses – EUR/USD even briefly traded above 1.14. However, this was not really due to the data, which was mixed at best.

11:26 USD: Powell rejects rescuer role – ING Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered the clearest message since 'liberation day' yesterday, which was unquestionably hawkish, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

11:17 EUR: Consensus cut, no guidance by ECB – ING We expect a 25bp rate cut by the ECB today. Consensus is unanimous, and markets are fully pricing in the move, so the impact on the euro may prove limited, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

11:14 EUR/USD corrects ahead of ECB interest rate decision EUR/USD declines to near 1.1350 during European trading hours on Thursday. The major currency pair edges lower ahead of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) interest rate decision, which will be announced at 12:15 GMT.

11:02 GBP/JPY Price Analysis: Tests crucial resistance zone at nine-day EMA near 189.00 GBP/JPY recovers its recent losses from the previous session, trading around 188.90 during the early European hours on Thursday.

10:34 Chinese Commerce Ministry: China is open to negotiations on economic, trade areas Chinese Commerce Ministry said on Thursday that Bejing “is open to negotiations on economic and trade areas.”

10:06 US Dollar Index maintains position around 99.50 ahead of Initial Jobless Claims data The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of six major currencies, is slightly stronger, hovering around 99.50, buoyed by solid consumer spending data.

10:00 European Central Bank set to cut interest rates again amid easing inflation and tariff uncertainty The European Central Bank (ECB) will announce its April interest rate decision on Thursday at 12:15 GMT. Markets widely expect the central bank to lower key rates for the sixth consecutive time.

09:59 India Gold price today: Gold eases from all-time highs Despite looming tariff uncertainty, the US Dollat attempts a bounce heading toward Good Friday, fuelling a mild retreat in Comex Gold price from all-time highs of $3,358 reached early Thursday.

09:54 Forex Today: Market mood improves as focus shifts to ECB Here is what you need to know on Thursday, April 17:

09:00 Switzerland Exports (MoM) increased to 30239M in March from previous 24744M Switzerland Exports (MoM) increased to 30239M in March from previous 24744M

09:00 Switzerland Imports (MoM) climbed from previous 19941M to 23889M in March Switzerland Imports (MoM) climbed from previous 19941M to 23889M in March

09:00 Switzerland Trade Balance increased to 6350M in March from previous 4803M Switzerland Trade Balance increased to 6350M in March from previous 4803M

09:00 Germany Producer Price Index (MoM) below forecasts (-0.1%) in March: Actual (-0.7%) Germany Producer Price Index (MoM) below forecasts (-0.1%) in March: Actual (-0.7%)

09:00 Germany Producer Price Index (YoY) below forecasts (0.4%) in March: Actual (-0.2%) Germany Producer Price Index (YoY) below forecasts (0.4%) in March: Actual (-0.2%)

08:54 BoJ’s Nagakawa: Financial markets are reflecting uncertain situation Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member Junko Nagakawa is back on the wires on Thursday, that “financial markets are reflecting uncertain situation.”

07:40 FX option expiries for Apr 17 NY cut FX option expiries for Apr 17 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

07:40 EUR/JPY trades with positive bias above 162.00; lacks follow-through ahead of ECB The EUR/JPY cross attracts buyers for the second straight day and climbs back above the 162.00 mark during the Asian session on Thursday.

07:30 Netherlands, The Unemployment Rate s.a (3M) increased to 3.9% in March from previous 3.8% Netherlands, The Unemployment Rate s.a (3M) increased to 3.9% in March from previous 3.8%

07:16 Gold price bulls pause for a breather after the recent run up to a fresh record high Gold price (XAU/USD) consolidates the previous day's blowout rally and oscillates in a range near the all-time high touched during the Asian session on Thursday amid mixed fundamental cues.

06:28 GBP/USD trades below 1.3250 after retreating from six-month highs GBP/USD snaps its seven-day winning streak, easing to around 1.3230 during Thursday’s Asian session after retreating from a six-month high of 1.3292 reached on Wednesday.

06:25 RBNZ Sectoral Factor Inflation Model drops to 2.9% YoY in Q1 2025 The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) published its Sectoral Factor Model Inflation gauge for the first quarter of 2025, following the release of the official Consumer Price Index (CPI) by the NZ Stats early Thursday.

06:06 ​​USD/INR recovers on trade war worries The Indian Rupee (INR) loses ground on Thursday, snapping the five-day winning streak. A weakening Chinese Yuan amid the escalating trade war put pressure on most Asian currencies, including the Indian currency.

05:55 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD moves below $32.50 due to easing trade concerns Silver (XAG/USD) is trading around $32.30 per troy ounce during Thursday’s Asian session, paring some of its gains from the previous day.

05:43 Japanese Yen retreats from multi-month high against USD; bullish bias remains intact The Japanese Yen (JPY) retreats after hitting a fresh multi-month high against its American counterpart during the Asian session Thursday, though any meaningful downside still seems elusive.

05:12 Australian Dollar holds losses following employment data release The Australian Dollar (AUD) is trading lower against the US Dollar (USD), snapping a six-day winning streak.

04:35 China’s Foreign Ministry: If US continues to play tariff numbers game, China will pay no attention China’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement on Thursday that if the United States (US) continues to play the tariff numbers game, China will pay no attention.

04:31 Australia Part-Time Employment increased to 17.2K in March from previous -17K Australia Part-Time Employment increased to 17.2K in March from previous -17K

04:30 Australia Participation Rate below forecasts (67%) in March: Actual (66.8%) Australia Participation Rate below forecasts (67%) in March: Actual (66.8%)

04:30 Australia Unemployment Rate s.a. came in at 4.1% below forecasts (4.2%) in March Australia Unemployment Rate s.a. came in at 4.1% below forecasts (4.2%) in March

04:30 Australia Employment Change s.a. below expectations (40K) in March: Actual (32.2K) Australia Employment Change s.a. below expectations (40K) in March: Actual (32.2K)

04:30 Australia Full-Time Employment up to 15K in March from previous -35.7K Australia Full-Time Employment up to 15K in March from previous -35.7K

04:27 BoJ’s Ueda: Japan’s real interest rate remains very low Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Thursday that Japan's real interest rates remain very low. Ueda further stated that the central bank will increase the rate if the economic outlook is achieved.

04:16 Japan PM Ishiba says talks with the US were constructive Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said on Thursday that talks with the United States were constructive, adding that the government will continue to consider trade negotiations a top priority.

04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2085 vs. 7.2133 previous The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Thursday at 7.2085 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.2133 and 7.3083 Reuters estimate.