ไทม์ไลน์ข่าวสาร forex

23:43 New Zealand ANZ – Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down to 96 in January from previous 100.2
New Zealand ANZ – Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down to 96 in January from previous 100.2

23:00 Mexico Fiscal Balance, pesos dipped from previous -110.23B to -618.56B in December
Mexico Fiscal Balance, pesos dipped from previous -110.23B to -618.56B in December

22:46 Australian Dollar sees mild gains as markets assess US Q4 GDP and Fed outlook
AUD/USD remains range-bound above 0.6200 on Thursday as markets assess the United States (US) fourth-quarter GDP release, which could shape the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate outlook.

22:41 Gold price reaches new record high near $2,800
Gold price skyrockets to a new all-time high (ATH) of $2,798 on Thursday after economic data from the United States (US) indicated the economy is slowing down, warranting the Federal Reserve (Fed) to lower interest rates despite holding them steady at Wednesday’s meeting.

21:46 Forex Today: Markets will closely follow the PCE data and German inflation
The US Dollar traded with a tepid downside bias amid lower yields and further investors’ assessment of Wednesday’s hawkish hold by the Federal Reserve, while the release of Friday’s PCE also prompted some caution.

The US Dollar traded with a tepid downside bias amid lower yields and further investors’ assessment of Wednesday’s hawkish hold by the Federal Reserve, while the release of Friday’s PCE also prompted some caution.Here is what you need to know on Friday, January 31: The US Dollar Index (DXY) remained inconclusive below the 108.00 mark and amid shrinking US yields. The publication of PCE figures will gather all the attention, seconded by Personal Income/Spending, the Chicago PMI, Employment Cost index and the speech by the Fed’s Bowman. EUR/USD hovered around the low-1.0400s, up slightly, after the ECB lowered its key rates by 25 bps, as expected. Germany’s flash Inflation Rate takes centre stage, followed by the jobs report and Retail Sales. In addition, the ECB will release its Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF).GBP/USD added to Wednesday’s uptick and advanced modestly, briefly revisiting the 1.2480 zone. The Nationwide Housing Prices will be the only release across the Channel. USD/JPY dropped markedly to three-day lows in the sub-154.00 region, adding to the previous day’s pullback. Japan’s Unemployment Rate, Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Housing Starts, Construction Orders, and Tokyo Inflation Rate are expected at the end of the week. AUD/USD managed well to regain balance and set aside three consecutive daily pullbacks, retesting the 0.6250 zone. Producer Prices, Housing Credit figures and Private Sector Credit results are all due in Oz. WTI oil dropped further and challenged the $72.00 mark per barrel, or four-week lows, on the back of steady concerns surrounding the US tariffs narrative. Gold prices regained the uptrend and advanced to a record high just below the key $2,800 mark per ounce troy. Silver prices rallied past the $31.00 mark per ounce for the first time since early December.

20:26 Canadian Dollar middles as markets mull over mixed US data
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) went nowhere fast on Thursday, cycling near the 1.4400 handle against the US Dollar (USD).

20:23 US Dollar weakens as markets digest Fed decision and GDP miss
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against a basket of currencies, hovers below 108.00 as traders react to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) latest decision and a weaker-than-expected US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) print.

20:09 Mexican Peso extends rally unfazed by economic contraction
The Mexican Peso (MXN) surged for the third consecutive day against the Greenback as the emerging market currency shrugged off Mexico’s economic contraction in Q4 2024, according to the Instituto Nacional de Estadistica Geografia e Informatica (INEGI).

19:06 Dow Jones Industrial Average middles on Thursday after mixed data and earnings
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) churned on Thursday, marking in tracks around 44,700 but sticking close to the day’s opening bids.

18:32 United States 4-Week Bill Auction fell from previous 4.265% to 4.25%
United States 4-Week Bill Auction fell from previous 4.265% to 4.25%

18:15 AUD/USD neutral as US GDP data misses expectations
The AUD/USD pair stands neutral around 0.6235 on Thursday, struggling to gain traction ahead of the US Q4 GDP data release.

US Q4 GDP growth slows to 2.3%, missing estimates of 2.6%.Fed holds rates at 4.25%-4.50%, maintaining cautious stance on inflation progress.AUD/USD stands soft around 0.6235, RBA rate cut expectations limits upside.The AUD/USD pair stands neutral around 0.6235 on Thursday, struggling to gain traction ahead of the US Q4 GDP data release. The Federal Reserve opted to keep interest rates steady but maintained a cautious tone, expressing concerns over stalled disinflation progress. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is widely expected to shift toward a policy-easing stance in the coming month, further weighing on the Aussie. US GDP misses forecasts, Fed holds rates steady The latest US economic data showed that growth slowed in the final quarter of 2024. Preliminary figures revealed that GDP expanded at an annualized pace of 2.3%, falling short of the 2.6% consensus and marking a notable drop from the 3.1% growth seen in the previous quarter. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index jumped to 2.3%, reflecting stronger inflationary pressures, while core PCE remained steady at 2.2%, below expectations of 2.5%.
Additionally, US jobless claims declined more than expected, with initial claims falling to 207,000 from 223,000 the previous week, reinforcing the Fed’s cautious stance on potential rate cuts. The central bank left rates unchanged as anticipated but removed language about inflation progress toward the 2% target, signaling a more watchful approach. Fed Chair Jerome Powell later clarified that this change was not intended to send a signal about policy direction, which slightly softened the initial hawkish interpretation. Investors are closely monitoring upcoming economic data, particularly the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report on Friday, for further clues on the Fed’s policy trajectory. Meanwhile, sentiment around the Aussie remains weak as RBA rate cut bets intensify, with analysts at ANZ predicting a 25-basis-point reduction in February. Technical overview AUD/USD remains range-bound, showing limited upside momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 47, still in negative territory but rising. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram prints green bars, hinting at potential upside correction. Key resistance stands at 0.6250. On the downside, 0.6200 serves as key support, with a break below opening the door toward 0.6170. Until a clear breakout occurs, the pair is likely to remain in consolidation mode. AUD/USD daily chart

17:30 United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change came in at -321B below forecasts (-313B) in January 24
United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change came in at -321B below forecasts (-313B) in January 24

17:16 USD/JPY falls as US GDP misses estimates bolstering Yen
The USD/JPY retreats in early trading during the North American session after economic data showed the US economy grew lower than expected a day after the Federal Reserve (Fed) decided to keep rates unchanged.

17:09 Gold challenges record highs post ECB, US GDP
XAU/USD trades dangerously close to its record high in the $2,790 region as the latest macroeconomic developments put pressure on the US Dollar (USD).

The European Central Bank trimmed interest rates by 25 bps as widely anticipated.The preliminary estimate of the Q4 Gross Domestic Product resulted weaker than anticipated.XAU/USD pressures record highs and is on its way to test the $2,800 threshold.XAU/USD trades dangerously close to its record high in the $2,790 region as the latest macroeconomic developments put pressure on the US Dollar (USD). Ahead of Wall Street’s opening, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced its decision on monetary policy. The ECB lowered key rates by 25 basis points (bps) each, as expected. With this decision, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility stood at 2.9%, 3.15% and 2.75%, respectively. The accompanying statement and the subsequent President Christine Lagarde’s press conference showed that European policymakers are still concerned about economic progress, although not that concerned about inflation. The presser had a dovish tilt and left the door open for additional rate cuts in the upcoming months. At the same time, The United States (US) released the first preliminary of the Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which showed that the economy grew at an annualized pace of 2.3% in the three months to December, below the 2.6% expected and the 3.1% posted in Q3. Additionally, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index increased by 2.5% on a quarterly basis, matching the market consensus. The US also published Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended January 24, which unexpectedly improved to 207K from the previous 223K. The weak growth-related data further undermined USD demand. XAU/USD technical outlook The bright metal is nearing its all-time high at $2,790.11 and seems poised to run beyond it, towards the $2,800 mark, the initial natural target. Sellers are likely to reappear around the latter, albeit the dominant market sentiment should keep the bullish trend alive. Additional gains in the near term should see XAU/USD reach the $2,810/20 region. Pullbacks will likely attract buyers, with a near-term support level at $2,771.90, Jan 27 intraday high. As long as the area holds, bulls will retain control.

17:08 CTAs will continue to buy Silver – TDS
While a few false dawns have emerged in the past, spot and futures prices are both finally breaking out of the wedge that has contained Silver markets from the 2024's local top not reached since 2012, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.

While a few false dawns have emerged in the past, spot and futures prices are both finally breaking out of the wedge that has contained Silver markets from the 2024's local top not reached since 2012, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes. A confirmed break from the wedge may attract further interest"The breakout in futures markets is relevant as it is likely to catalyze CTA buying activity which directly attracts new directional inflows, which may become self-reinforcing. The break north of $31.55/oz in SIH5 will only force CTAs to buy +4% of their max size, but CTAs will continue to buy Silver in (nearly) every scenario for prices over the coming sessions, barring a sharp reversal (akin with a big downtape)." A confirmed break from the wedge may also attract further discretionary trader interest, particularly with Gold prices pushing towards all-time highs, given evidence that while this cohort may be involved in the EFP dislocation, they remain directionally flat.

17:04 Gold reaches new all-time highs – TDS
Gold prices are pushing to new all-time highs as we expected, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.

Gold prices are pushing to new all-time highs as we expected, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes. Downside risk still remains limited in Gold"The time to throw caution to the wind was in early-January, which featured a rare set-up in which a higher USD/rates would attract 'Mystery Buying', whereas a reversal in the USD/rates would attract macro fund interest, and as CTA buying activity continued to intermittently hit the tapes." "At new all-time highs, with every single trend signal already pointing to the upside, CTAs will have effectively reached their 'max long' position size, which will leave the onus on other cohorts to carry the torch. Looking forward, while no scenarios will lead CTAs to shed their recently acquired length over the coming week, macro funds only held ~20% of their max size remaining to deploy as of last week, which limits the scope of dry-powder that can still be deployed." "Overall, downside risk still remains limited in Gold, but the upward impulse for the ongoing rally is starting to subside. Gold bulls need to reload some bullets. The set-up for flows in silver is superior."

17:00 United States Pending Home Sales (YoY) fell from previous 6.9% to -5% in December
United States Pending Home Sales (YoY) fell from previous 6.9% to -5% in December

17:00 United States Pending Home Sales (MoM) came in at -5.5%, below expectations (0%) in December
United States Pending Home Sales (MoM) came in at -5.5%, below expectations (0%) in December

16:25 USD/CAD trades subduedly above 1.4400 despite US Dollar slides after US data
The USD/CAD pair trades in a subdued manner above the key support of 1.4400 in Thursday’s North American session.

16:24 Lagarde speech: There is no stagflation
Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to lower key rates by 25 basis points at the January policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.

16:14 Lagarde speech: Confident that inflation will hit target in 2025
Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to lower key rates by 25 basis points at the January policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.

15:59 Lagarde speech: Risk of greater friction in global trade could weigh on Euro area growth
Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to lower key rates by 25 basis points at the January policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.

15:54 Lagarde speech: If trade tensions don't escalate, exports should support recovery
Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to lower key rates by 25 basis points at the January policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.

15:49 A break below 153.35 for USD/JPY is going to be a bearish signal – Rabobank
The JPY has extended its better tone today, reinforcing its position as the best performing G10 currency on a 1 day, 5 day and month-to-date view, Rabobank's FX analyst Jane Foley notes.

The JPY has extended its better tone today, reinforcing its position as the best performing G10 currency on a 1 day, 5 day and month-to-date view, Rabobank's FX analyst Jane Foley notes. JPY extends its better tone today"This morning’s move took USD/JPY back below 155.00. So far this month, the currency pair has struggled to hold breaks of this level, with price action running into support at the upper boundary of the Ichimoku cloud." "On the back of remarks from Deputy BoJ Governor Himino this morning, JPY bulls appear to be more confident about the resolve of policymakers to hike rates in 2025. That said, currently market implied policy rates suggest only 29 bps of policy tightening is priced in on a 1-year view. We maintain our year end forecast of USD/JPY145.00.""We favour selling USD/JPY into rallies. A break below the Ichimoku cloud around USD/JPY 153.35 would be a bearish signal."

15:39 US: Initial Jobless Claims rose to 207K last week
US citizens filing new applications for unemployment insurance rose to 207K for the week ending January 25, as reported by the US Department of Labor (DoL) on Thursday.

Initial Jobless Claims came short of consensus, increasing to 207K.Continuing Jobless Claims climbed to 1.858M in the week ending January 18.US citizens filing new applications for unemployment insurance rose to 207K for the week ending January 25, as reported by the US Department of Labor (DoL) on Thursday. This print missed initial estimates and was lower than the previous week's unrevised tally of 223K. The report also highlighted a seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate of 1.2%, while the four-week moving average retreated to 212.50K, marking a decrease of 1K from the prior week’s unrevised average. Moreover, Continuing Jobless Claims went down by 42K to reach 1.858M for the week ending January 18. Market reaction The Greenback maintains its bullish bias for the third consecutive day around the 108.00 neighbourhood when measured by the US Dollar Index (DXY) amid the broad-based decline in US yields and investors' assessment of the Fed’s hawkish hold on Wednesday.

15:30 United States Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ) climbed from previous 1.5% to 2.3% in 4Q
United States Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ) climbed from previous 1.5% to 2.3% in 4Q

15:30 United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ) in line with expectations (2.5%) in 4Q
United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ) in line with expectations (2.5%) in 4Q

15:30 United States Gross Domestic Product Price Index came in at 2.2%, below expectations (2.5%) in 4Q
United States Gross Domestic Product Price Index came in at 2.2%, below expectations (2.5%) in 4Q

15:30 United States Gross Domestic Product Annualized came in at 2.3%, below expectations (2.6%) in 4Q
United States Gross Domestic Product Annualized came in at 2.3%, below expectations (2.6%) in 4Q

15:30 United States Initial Jobless Claims below expectations (220K) in January 24: Actual (207K)
United States Initial Jobless Claims below expectations (220K) in January 24: Actual (207K)

15:30 United States Continuing Jobless Claims below forecasts (1.89M) in January 17: Actual (1.858M)
United States Continuing Jobless Claims below forecasts (1.89M) in January 17: Actual (1.858M)

15:30 United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average declined to 212.5K in January 24 from previous 213.5K
United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average declined to 212.5K in January 24 from previous 213.5K

15:24 GBP edges lower in range – Scotiabank
UK lending data was a bit firmer than expected in December; data showed stronger demand for mortgages and lending secured on housing, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

UK lending data was a bit firmer than expected in December; data showed stronger demand for mortgages and lending secured on housing, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. UK December lending data a little firmer than f/c"Data also showed a strong jump in net foreign demand for UK gilts at the end of the year, suggesting foreign investors are looking through the recent concerns about the sustainability of the government’s fiscal plans amid the rise in global bond yields." "GBP tested the 1.24 area briefly yesterday but the dip drew a positive reaction on the charts, forming a bullish “hammer” signal on the daily candle. Overnight gains have stalled around 1.2460— initial resistance now—however. Cable may have to retest the 1.2390/00 zone or 1.2460 before a stronger sense of direction can emerge."

15:18 CAD is trading steady after BoC – Scotiabank
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is little changed. The BoC policy decision yesterday suggested a cautious outlook for monetary policy amid heightened uncertainty around tariffs.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is little changed. The BoC policy decision yesterday suggested a cautious outlook for monetary policy amid heightened uncertainty around tariffs. The Bank assumed risks around the 2% inflation target were balanced, suggesting little appetite for more easing, all else equal, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. Joly 'cautiously optimistic' after Rubio talks"Of course, it may not be equal; tariff risks are significant and the Bank noted that a broad-based, long-lasting trade conflict would hurt Canadian growth significantly. How the Bank would respond hinges on the who, what and when of the tariff application and whether Canada responds. The MPR also noted that much of the CAD’s recent depreciation could be explained by uncertainty and the increased risk premium applied to the currency around the tariff outlook—rather than the Bank’s aggressive rate cutting strategy." "The threat of 25% tariffs on Canada only really emerged late in the US election campaign, at which point USD/CAD had already risen around 4.5big figures—close to half of the late year rise. The Bank’s position suggests there might be significant room for the CAD to rebound if tariff threats were to disappear. I would contend that the wide, short-term rate spread would limit the CAD’s ability to recover in a meaningful way at this point. Foreign Affairs Minister Joly said she was 'cautiously optimistic' after meeting Secretary of State Rubio yesterday but acknowledged the risk of hefty tariffs coming this weekend remains." "Choppy range trade is likely to extend in the short run. The CAD is marginally firmer on the day so far after USD gains yesterday peaked around 1.4475 resistance. Key resistance is 1.4515 ahead of 1.47. The 40-day MA provides initial support (1.4349 today) ahead of key support at 1.4250/60."

15:15 Eurozone ECB Rate On Deposit Facility meets forecasts (2.75%)
Eurozone ECB Rate On Deposit Facility meets forecasts (2.75%)

15:15 Eurozone ECB Main Refinancing Operations Rate in line with forecasts (2.9%)
Eurozone ECB Main Refinancing Operations Rate in line with forecasts (2.9%)

15:14 USD mixed versus majors as markets hold ranges – Scotiabank
The US Dollar (USD) is trading mixed to a little higher overall. Trading remains relatively quiet and movement in the major currencies remains largely confined to recent ranges, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

The US Dollar (USD) is trading mixed to a little higher overall. Trading remains relatively quiet and movement in the major currencies remains largely confined to recent ranges, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. Markets are waiting for tariff news"Stocks are trading mostly higher while bond markets are firmer; US 10Y yields are 2-3bps lower but Treasurys are lagging European bonds following the release of soft Eurozone GDP data. The Fed left its policy rate on hold yesterday and no-one was surprised. The policy statement did read a little hawkish on the face of it, with the reference to making progress towards the 2% inflation goal removed. ""The Fed also said that unemployment had stabilized while the labor market remained solid. Markets moved a little on the apparent hawkish tilt implied by the dropped reference to inflation but Chair Powell downplayed the change, saying policymakers were just cleaning up the statement’s language. Regardless, a period of steady policy at least seems likely as the Fed sits back and assesses the economy and developments—including the Trump team’s plans—and the window for lower US rates this year appears to have narrowed a little." "Powell noted there was no need to hurry on policy adjustment. It’s month end but that is not generating a lot of market interest, on the face of it. Markets may hold in ranges ahead of the weekend as investors await for news on whether the US will slap tariffs on Canada and Mexico."

15:11 EUR softer as Eurozone Q4 GDP stagnates – Scotiabank
The ECB is expected to cut its policy rate 25bps today, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

The ECB is expected to cut its policy rate 25bps today, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. ECB cut widely expected"There have been enough comments from more hawkish policymakers to suggest there will be a robust debate about policy amid current, heightened uncertainties but that may only emerge from the usual post-meeting leaks from 'people familiar' with today’s discussion. President Lagarde may not offer much guidance on the path forward for rates." "Yield differentials remain a strong source of support for the USD and an ECB cut today will sustain the EUR’s negative spread over the USD after the Fed hold yesterday. But USD gains are unlikely to extend too far at the moment. The main hinderance on a USD advance remains positioning; everyone already seems long. Eurozone GDP wasunchanged in Q4, a little weaker than consensus expectations for a 0.1% rise, and up 0.9%." "Spot is holding a narrow range in the low 1.04 area. The reversal in the EUR from Monday’s 1.0533 high signaled a short -term top/reversal in spot so losses are more likely than gains for now as the EUR corrects its rebound from 1.0178 over the second half of this month. Losses may extend to the low/mid 1.03s in the short run."

15:05 South Africa SARB Interest Rate Decision in line with forecasts (7.5%)
South Africa SARB Interest Rate Decision in line with forecasts (7.5%)

15:00 Russia Central Bank Reserves $ increased to $619.7B from previous $609.7B
Russia Central Bank Reserves $ increased to $619.7B from previous $609.7B

14:01 Mexico Gross Domestic Product (YoY) came in at 0.6% below forecasts (1.2%) in 4Q
Mexico Gross Domestic Product (YoY) came in at 0.6% below forecasts (1.2%) in 4Q

14:00 Mexico Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) below expectations (-0.2%) in 4Q: Actual (-0.6%)
Mexico Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) below expectations (-0.2%) in 4Q: Actual (-0.6%)

13:50 AUD/USD consolidates around 0.6220 as US Q4 GDP takes centre stage
The AUD/USD pair trades in a tight range around 0.6220 in Thursday’s European session.

AUD/USD trades sideways above 0.6200 ahead of US Q4 GDP data.The Fed guided a cautious stance on interest rates amid fears of stalling disinflation trend.Market participants are confident that the RBA will pivot to policy-easing next month.The AUD/USD pair trades in a tight range around 0.6220 in Thursday’s European session. The Aussie pair struggles for a direction, following the footprints of the US Dollar (USD), which is lacklustre after the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement in which it kept interest rates steady in the range of 4.25%-4.50%. The Fed was already anticipated to maintain status quo as progress in the disinflation trend towards the central bank’s target of 2% has slowed. In the press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell guided to hold interest rates at their current levels until the central bank sees "real progress on inflation or at least some weakness in the labor market”. Meanwhile, investors await the United States (US) Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, which will be published at 13:30 GMT. Economists expect the US economy to have expanded at an annualized rate of 2.6%, slower than 3.1% growth seen in the third quarter of 2024. Signs of strong GDP growth would add to expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates at their current levels for longer. On the contrary, signals of slower growth rate are unlikely to impact expectations for Fed’s interest rate stance as investors see US President Donald Trump’s economic agenda as pro-growth and inflationary for the economy. On the Aussie front, the Australian Dollar (AUD) performs weakly amid growing expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will start reducing interest rates from the policy meeting in February. Analysts at ANZ said that a “sharper-than-expected” slowdown in inflation would provide the RBA with enough confidence to lower its Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points (bps) at its next meeting.

13:46 US Dollar focus shifts to Europe for upcoming ECB meeting
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar against six major currencies, trades flat at around 108.00 at the time of writing on Thursday.

13:11 Pound Sterling ranges against USD ahead of US Q4 GDP, PCE inflation
The Pound Sterling (GBP) ticks slightly higher to near 1.2460 against the US Dollar (USD) in European trading hours on Thursday.

The Pound Sterling trades sideways against the US Dollar on Thursday as investors focus on the US Q4 GDP data.US President Trump vows to lower inflation himself through liberalization and ramping up Oil production.The BoE is expected to cut interest rates by 25 bps next week.The Pound Sterling (GBP) ticks slightly higher to near 1.2460 against the US Dollar (USD) in European trading hours on Thursday. The GBP/USD consolidates as the US Dollar turns sideways ahead of the advanced Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report for the fourth quarter of 2024, which will be published at 13:30 GMT. Economists estimate the US economy expanded 2.6% year-over-year (YoY), slower than the 3.1% growth seen in the third quarter of 2024. Investors should brace for more volatility in the US Dollar as the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for December is scheduled to be released on Friday. The PCE price index data will show the current status of inflation. The core PCE inflation, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge is estimated to have grown in December by 0.2%, faster than 0.1% in November on a month-on-month basis, with yearly figures rising steadily by 2.8%. On Wednesday, the Fed left interest rates unchanged in the range of 4.25%-4.50% as expected, and guided a cautious stance. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in the press conference that further monetary policy adjustments would become appropriate only if the central bank sees "real progress on inflation or at least some weakness in the labor market”. Fed’s decision to pause the current policy-easing cycle is opposite to President Donald Trump’s views who called for immediate rate cuts in his speech at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos. Powell commented, “The committee is very much in the mode of waiting to see what policies are enacted.” After Powell’s speech, Trump said in a post on his social media company, Truth Social, that the Fed has done a “terrible job on Bank Regulation”. Trump added that he would “lower inflation himself through various initiatives including energy production, American manufacturing and slashing regulation.” Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling gains as UK Reeves assures healthy trade relations with US The Pound Sterling trades strongly against its major peers, except for the Japanese Yen (JPY), in Thursday’s European session. The British currency strengthens as United Kingdom (UK) Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves provides a roadmap to ramp up economic growth. Reeves unveiled various measures to boost growth prospects, including a "growth corridor" between the university cities of Oxford and Cambridge, in her speech at Oxfordshire. Rachel Reeves reiterated Prime Minister Keir Starmer's positive outlook on the economy, saying that the economy is on the brisk of a “turnaround” in a speech in Oxfordshire. She vowed to remove "stifling and unpredictable" regulations to boost productivity. Reeves also mentioned that she is looking to “deepen their relationship” with the United States (US) under the leadership of President Donald Trump and looks forward to working with the new Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. However, the impact of Reeves’ economic agenda is unlikely to fix, at least immediately, the issues the nation is facing, which are forcing the Bank of England (BoE) to resume the rate-cut cycle from the policy meeting next week. BoE officials are scheduled to meet in February and are expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.5%. This would be the third interest rate cut by the BoE since August when borrowing rates rose to 5.25%. Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling consolidates around 1.2450 The Pound Sterling exhibits a sharp volatility contraction around 1.2450 against the US Dollar on Thursday. The near-term outlook for the GBP/USD pair remains firm as it holds the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 1.2400. However, the 50-day EMA near 1.2510 continues to be a major barrier for Sterling bulls. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) moves higher above 50.00 from the 20.00-40.00 range, suggesting that the bearish momentum has ended, at least for now. Looking down, the January 13 low of 1.2100 and the October 2023 low of 1.2040 will act as key support zones for the pair. On the upside, the December 30 high of 1.2607 will act as key resistance.

13:06 Energy Markets: Europe's carbon and power markets in turmoil – Rabobank
The European Union’s carbon market has started the year strong, with prices rising above €82/t CO2e on several occasions after falling to an average of €67/t CO2e in 2024.

The European Union’s carbon market has started the year strong, with prices rising above €82/t CO2e on several occasions after falling to an average of €67/t CO2e in 2024. A wind lull that swept over Europe so far this winter has lifted demand for fossil fuel generation and, with it, demand for carbon allowances, Rabobank's Energy Strategist Florence Schmit noes. EU carbon market starts the year strong"This shortfall in renewables, particularly in Germany, alongside higher gas prices, has lifted power prices across Europe above €100/MWh in January and reignited debates about the merits of interconnectors in some parts of the continent." "Europe’s benchmark gas prices closed above €50/MWh on more than two days in January, as quicker-than-anticipated storage withdrawals alongside threats to LNG flows from the US to Malaysia have amplified supply concerns." "The current high-price environment for power markets will ease once wind levels return and solar starts to make up a higher share of the power generation mix. Yet higher forecast gas prices for this year also lift our outlook for power markets. We forecast German baseload power prices to average €90/MWh and Spanish power to average €66/MWh in 2025."

13:01 Italy Industrial Sales n.s.a. (YoY) rose from previous -5.3% to -2.6% in November
Italy Industrial Sales n.s.a. (YoY) rose from previous -5.3% to -2.6% in November

13:01 Italy Industrial Sales s.a. (MoM): 1.5% (November) vs 0.5%
Italy Industrial Sales s.a. (MoM): 1.5% (November) vs 0.5%

13:00 GBP: Gilt and fiscal story very much in play – ING
The UK fiscal story and what it means for UK asset markets remain very much in play. UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves wants to change the narrative from painful tax rises for businesses to UK growth opportunities. That was the purpose of major policy announcements in Oxford yesterday.

The UK fiscal story and what it means for UK asset markets remain very much in play. UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves wants to change the narrative from painful tax rises for businesses to UK growth opportunities. That was the purpose of major policy announcements in Oxford yesterday. Those announcements could also be seen as an effort to sway the thinking of the Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) as it scores the government's policy agenda ahead of a March review, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes. GBP/USD and EUR/GBP to trade at 1.19/20 and 0.85 respectively"Recall that the OBR still has relatively high UK growth forecasts up to 2030. And the government will be doing its utmost to persuade the OBR not to revise those forecasts down – which would only make the UK's fiscal position worse. We suspect the government will have to announce some fiscal consolidation in March, largely through real-time spending reductions in the later years of the forecast cycle.""The relevance of the above is that it is also an effort to restore confidence to the UK gilt market. Another effort in this direction was the Bank of England's announcement on Tuesday of a new contingent facility – the CNRF – to lend cash to Non-Bank Financial Institutions (NBFIs) in the event of dislocation in the gilt market. This will be widely welcomed by the NBFI industry, although it seems less generous than the Fed's Bank Term Funding Progarmme, which lent cash against eligible collateral, without haircut, for a year. The BoE's CNRF tool only gets fired up if the BoE sees a crisis in the gilt market and seemingly only lends funds for one to weeks.""While these efforts to restore confidence are very welcome – and have helped the sterling trade-weight index recover about 1% from lows earlier this month – we still feel sterling is vulnerable. Fiscal consolidation in March and a drop in services inflation through the second quarter should lead to a 100bp BoE easing cycle this year. This compares to just 68bp of easing priced by the market today. We see no reason to change our end-year GBP/USD and EUR/GBP forecasts of 1.19/20 and 0.85 respectively."

12:55 JPY is the top performing major currencies overnight – BBH
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is the top performing major currencies overnight. There is no fundamental trigger behind broad JPY strength, BBH FX analysts note.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is the top performing major currencies overnight. There is no fundamental trigger behind broad JPY strength, BBH FX analysts note. BOJ policy rate to peak around 1.00% over the next two years"Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino reiterated the bank’s guidance that more hikes are in the pipeline if its economic and price outlooks are realized. Markets continues to imply the BOJ policy rate to peak around 1.00% over the next two years." "This seems about right as the BOJ expects inflation to stabilize around its 2% target in 2026. Bottom line: the BOJ shallow policy normalization cycle is an ongoing headwind for JPY."

12:37 USD/JPY Price Forecast: Japanese Yen strengthens as BoJ hawkish bets swell
The USD/JPY pair slumps to near 154.30 in Thursday’s European session.

12:30 Italy 5-y Bond Auction up to 2.95% from previous 2.79%
Italy 5-y Bond Auction up to 2.95% from previous 2.79%

12:30 Italy 10-y Bond Auction increased to 3.6% from previous 3.39%
Italy 10-y Bond Auction increased to 3.6% from previous 3.39%

12:30 Belgium Consumer Price Index (YoY) up to 4.08% in January from previous 3.16%
Belgium Consumer Price Index (YoY) up to 4.08% in January from previous 3.16%

12:30 Belgium Consumer Price Index (MoM) up to 1.39% in January from previous 0.4%
Belgium Consumer Price Index (MoM) up to 1.39% in January from previous 0.4%

12:04 USD/CAD is extremely overvalued – BBH
As was widely expected, the Bank of Canada (BOC) slashed the policy rate 25bps to 3.00% yesterday. The BOC also announced two changes to its monetary policy implementation framework. These tweaks are technical and have no material monetary policy implications, BBH FX analysts report.

As was widely expected, the Bank of Canada (BOC) slashed the policy rate 25bps to 3.00% yesterday. The BOC also announced two changes to its monetary policy implementation framework. These tweaks are technical and have no material monetary policy implications, BBH FX analysts report. USD/CAD can move higher on risks of US/Canada trade war"First, the BOC will end quantitative tightening and begin purchasing assets as part of normal balance sheet management in early March. Second, the BOC announced that the deposit rate will be set at a spread of 5bps below the policy rate (i.e.: 2.95%). The aim is to mitigate some of the upward pressure that has been seen on the overnight rate relative to the policy rate in recent months.""More importantly, the BOC signaled it may pause easing while warning that US trade policy is a major source of uncertainty for Canada’s economy: (i) BOC emphasized again that “the cumulative reduction in the policy rate since last June is substantial” but scrapped previous easing guidance. (ii) BOC still projects inflation to remain close to the 2% target over the projection horizon. (iii) BOC projects GDP growth to rise above potential output in 2025 and 2026.""Nonetheless, markets expect the BOC to deliver more rate cuts. We agree. Interest rate futures imply almost 75bps of BOC cuts over the next 12 months that should see the policy rate bottom near 2.25%. This would be at the lower end of the BOC’s neutral range estimate of 2.25% to 3.25%. While USD/CAD is extremely overvalued, the overshoot has more legs. FED/BOC policy trend, risk of all-out trade war between Canada and the US, and the Trump administration’s focus on lowering energy prices support a higher USD/CAD."

12:02 Eurozone Industrial Confidence above expectations (-13.8) in January: Actual (-12.9)
Eurozone Industrial Confidence above expectations (-13.8) in January: Actual (-12.9)

12:02 Eurozone Services Sentiment came in at 6.6, above forecasts (6) in January
Eurozone Services Sentiment came in at 6.6, above forecasts (6) in January

12:02 Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator came in at 95.2, above expectations (94.1) in January
Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator came in at 95.2, above expectations (94.1) in January

12:02 Eurozone Consumer Confidence meets forecasts (-14.2) in January
Eurozone Consumer Confidence meets forecasts (-14.2) in January

12:01 Italy Unemployment above expectations (5.7%) in December: Actual (6.2%)
Italy Unemployment above expectations (5.7%) in December: Actual (6.2%)

12:01 Eurozone Business Climate dipped from previous -0.91 to -0.94 in January
Eurozone Business Climate dipped from previous -0.91 to -0.94 in January

12:01 Eurozone Preliminary GDP arrives at 0% QoQ in Q4 vs. 0.1% expected
The Eurozone economy shows no growth in the three months to December of 2024 after reporting a 0.4% expansion in the third quarter, the preliminary estimate released by Eurostat showed Thursday.

12:00 Greece Producer Price Index (YoY): -0.8% (December) vs -1.2%
Greece Producer Price Index (YoY): -0.8% (December) vs -1.2%

12:00 Greece Unemployment Rate (MoM) dipped from previous 9.6% to 9.4% in December
Greece Unemployment Rate (MoM) dipped from previous 9.6% to 9.4% in December

12:00 Eurozone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) registered at 0%, below expectations (0.1%) in 4Q
Eurozone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) registered at 0%, below expectations (0.1%) in 4Q

12:00 Eurozone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) below expectations (1%) in 4Q: Actual (0.9%)
Eurozone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) below expectations (1%) in 4Q: Actual (0.9%)

12:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate in line with expectations (6.3%) in December
Eurozone Unemployment Rate in line with expectations (6.3%) in December

11:58 Gold edges higher ahead of US GDP release
Gold’s price (XAU/USD) trades back above $2,765 at the time of writing on Thursday and looks to be on its way again to a fresh all-time high. Bullion could not make that happen on Wednesday after a rather hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) decision on

11:53 Base metals inventories rise due to weak consumption – ING
The latest data from the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) shows that weekly inventories for most of the base metals rose over the reporting week primarily due to weak consumption just ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

The latest data from the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) shows that weekly inventories for most of the base metals rose over the reporting week primarily due to weak consumption just ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note. Base metals stocks rise across the board"Copper stocks rose by 3,789 tons for a third consecutive week to 101,838 tons as of 29 January, the highest since 29 November 2024." "Zinc inventories increased by 1,282 tons after declining for ten consecutive weeks to 21,781 tons and nickel inventories increased marginally by 101 tons for a third consecutive week to 36,150 tons (the highest since 14 February 2020) over the reporting week."

11:50 6% of the 7% rise in USD/CAD since October is down to a risk premium – ING
As the Bank of Canada concluded in two great articles in its Monetary Policy Report released yesterday, tariffs could be a massive game-changer, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

As the Bank of Canada concluded in two great articles in its Monetary Policy Report released yesterday, tariffs could be a massive game-changer, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes. Investors are waiting for tariff news "BoC calculated that 6% of the 7% rise in USD/CAD since October was down to a risk premium. Investors await tariff news either this weekend or, failing that, in April after the Commerce Department and the US Treasury conclude their review into why the US runs persistent trade deficits."

11:49 USD: Fed does not move the needle – ING
The US Dollar (USD) failed to hold very modest gains from the initially hawkish-sounding FOMC statement. Subsequent clarification comments from Chair Jay Powell through the press conference saw both USD rates and the dollar hand back those gains, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

The US Dollar (USD) failed to hold very modest gains from the initially hawkish-sounding FOMC statement. Subsequent clarification comments from Chair Jay Powell through the press conference saw both USD rates and the dollar hand back those gains, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes. DXY to head back to the 108.20 or even 108.50 area"This leaves the market looking for two 25bp cuts this year – one in June and one in December – and awaiting both US data and the tariff story for their next big cues. Those dovish on the Fed will be hoping for some softer core PCE inflation data tomorrow (perhaps even a 0.1% MoM reading?) and expecting large and negative benchmark payroll revisions early next month to change the narrative on a robust US labour market.""Elsewhere we note that Nvidia is struggling to reclaim much of Monday's sharp sell-off on the DeepSeek news – where most seem to be concluding that DeepSeek's progress could be good for productivity gains yet bad for those tech and energy companies in which those AI-centred profits are concentrated. In early Europe, S&P 500 futures are marked modestly higher after a mixed set of earnings results from MSFT, Tesla and META overnight.""Today the US focus should be on a reasonably strong fourth-quarter GDP release, very much driven by strong consumption. This should prove another tick in the box for US exceptionalism and could see DXY heading back to the 108.20 or even 108.50 area – depending on ECB developments today."

11:31 United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals (MoM) above forecasts (£3.6B) in December: Actual (£4.6B)
United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals (MoM) above forecasts (£3.6B) in December: Actual (£4.6B)

11:31 United Kingdom M4 Money Supply (YoY) fell from previous 2.9% to 2.5% in December
United Kingdom M4 Money Supply (YoY) fell from previous 2.9% to 2.5% in December

11:30 Portugal Business Confidence climbed from previous 2.7 to 2.8 in January
Portugal Business Confidence climbed from previous 2.7 to 2.8 in January

11:30 Portugal Consumer Confidence dipped from previous -15 to -15.1 in January
Portugal Consumer Confidence dipped from previous -15 to -15.1 in January

11:30 United Kingdom M4 Money Supply (MoM) came in at 0.1%, below expectations (0.2%) in December
United Kingdom M4 Money Supply (MoM) came in at 0.1%, below expectations (0.2%) in December

11:30 Portugal Gross Domestic Product (YoY): 2.7% (4Q) vs 1.9%
Portugal Gross Domestic Product (YoY): 2.7% (4Q) vs 1.9%

11:30 Portugal Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) up to 1.5% in 4Q from previous 0.2%
Portugal Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) up to 1.5% in 4Q from previous 0.2%

11:30 South Africa Producer Price Index (MoM) rose from previous 0% to 0.2% in December
South Africa Producer Price Index (MoM) rose from previous 0% to 0.2% in December

11:30 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Thursday, according to FXStreet data.

11:30 United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals above forecasts (65.4K) in December: Actual (66.526K)
United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals above forecasts (65.4K) in December: Actual (66.526K)

11:30 South Africa Producer Price Index (YoY) climbed from previous -0.1% to 0.7% in December
South Africa Producer Price Index (YoY) climbed from previous -0.1% to 0.7% in December

11:30 United Kingdom Consumer Credit came in at £1.045B, above expectations (£0.95B) in December
United Kingdom Consumer Credit came in at £1.045B, above expectations (£0.95B) in December

11:29 NZD/USD is being weighed on under 0.5700 – BBH
NZD/USD is heavy under 0.5700 and trading close to the level implied by 2-year NZ-US bond yield spreads. New Zealand January ANZ business outlook survey was disappointing but still extremely high, BBH FX analysts report.

NZD/USD is heavy under 0.5700 and trading close to the level implied by 2-year NZ-US bond yield spreads. New Zealand January ANZ business outlook survey was disappointing but still extremely high, BBH FX analysts report. RBNZ/Fed policy trend remains drag for NZD/USD"Business confidence dipped 8 points to a five-month low at 54.4 and the expected own activity fell 4 points high to a four-month low at 45.8. Reported past activity, which has the best correlation to GDP, improved slightly to 0.2 vs. 0 in December suggesting a modest recovery in economic activity is underway." "In line with RBNZ guidance, markets continue to imply another 50bps rate cut to 3.75% in February and the policy rate to bottom around 3.00% over the next 12 months. RBNZ/Fed policy trend remains drag for NZD/USD."

11:26 Aluminum climbs as EU readies ban on Russian imports – ING
Aluminum rose in yesterday’s trading after reports of the EU proposing a phased ban on imports of Russian Aluminum to the bloc. The proposal calls for an import quota for a year before the complete ban comes into effect.

Aluminum rose in yesterday’s trading after reports of the EU proposing a phased ban on imports of Russian Aluminum to the bloc. The proposal calls for an import quota for a year before the complete ban comes into effect. The plan would allow European buyers to import 275,000 metric tons of the Russian metal under a quota system for one year before a full ban comes into effect, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note. China is importing half of its Aluminum imports from Russia"Although the EU continues to import Russian Aluminum, volumes have fallen over the past two years. The EU imported more than 320kt of unwrought Aluminum from Russia in the first 11 months of 2024, accounting for around 6% of total imports, a relatively small fraction of the global Aluminum market. This is down from 11% in 2023 and 19% in 2022." "The gap left by Russian supplies has mostly been filled by imports from the Middle East, India and Southeast Asia and this trend is likely to continue. The US and the UK banned the import of metals produced in Russia in 2024. The EU has so far banned Aluminum products, including wire, tube, pipe and foil, which account for less than 15% of EU imports.""Meanwhile, Russia has steadily increased sales to Asian consumers over the last three years, particularly China. China is now importing half of its Aluminum imports from Russia. We expect this trend to continue in 2025."

11:21 EUR/USD: Next objectives are located at 1.0570/1.0630 – Société Générale
EUR/USD bounce has stalled after facing interim resistance near 1.0535 earlier this week, Société Générale's FX analysts note.

EUR/USD bounce has stalled after facing interim resistance near 1.0535 earlier this week, Société Générale's FX analysts note. EUR/USD regains upward momentum"Daily MACD has been posting positive divergence and has recently crossed above equilibrium line denoting regain of upward momentum. 1.0350/1.0310, the 50% retracement of recent rebound is first support. Defence of this can lead to persistence in rebound. Beyond 1.0535, next objectives could be located at December high of 1.0570/1.0630."

11:18 EUR/USD trades with caution ahead of ECB interest rate decision, Eurozone-US Q4 GDP
EUR/USD trades cautiously around 1.0420 in Thursday’s European session as investors focus on the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy decision, which will be announced at 13:15 GMT.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD remains on tenterhooks around 1.0420 as the ECB’s policy meeting looms large.The ECB is expected to cut interest rates by 25 bps and deliver a dovish guidance.The Fed kept interest rates steady in the range of 4.25%-4.50% on Wednesday.EUR/USD trades cautiously around 1.0420 in Thursday’s European session as investors focus on the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy decision, which will be announced at 13:15 GMT. The ECB is widely anticipated to cut its Deposit Facility Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.75%, with the Main Refinancing Operations Rate sliding to 2.9%, and leave the door open for further policy easing. Traders have already priced in four interest rate cuts this year, see them coming by the summer, which would push the key Deposit Facility Rate to 2%. A string of ECB officials has been comfortable with dovish bets but not with the timeframe, and they see the 2% rate coming by year-end. ECB officials have also anticipated 2% as a neutral rate, which neither stimulates nor weighs on economic growth. Dovish ECB bets are based on the assumption that inflationary pressures in the Eurozone are sustainably on track to return to the central bank’s target of 2%. Investors are also worried that potential tariffs by United States (US) President Donald Trump could falter the Eurozone economic outlook, which is already going through a rough phase as the growth of its powerhouse nation, Germany, is expected to shrink again. The Federal of German Industries (BDI) forecasted on Tuesday that the German economy will shrink for the third year in a row as the government has been unable to address structural weaknesses in the national economy. Ahead of the ECB’s policy decision, investors will pay close attention to the flash Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for the fourth quarter of 2024, which will be published at 10:00 GMT. Economists expect the shared bloc to have expanded by 0.1% quarterly compared to the 0.4% growth in the third quarter. Compared to the same quarter of 2023, the Eurozone economy is estimated to have risen by 1.0%, faster than 0.9% growth in the third quarter of 2024. Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD follows US Dollar’s footprints The lackluster trend in the EUR/USD pair could also be attributed to a sideways trend in the US Dollar (USD) after the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday, in which the central bank left interest rates unchanged in the range of 4.25%-4.50%. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, wobbles around 108.00. The Fed was already expected to announce a pause in the policy-easing spell as market participants were worried about stalling progress in the disinflation trend towards the central bank’s target of 2%. In the press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell adopted a cautious stance on interest rates and said that the central bank would resume the rate-cut cycle only after seeing "real progress on inflation or at least some weakness in the labor market”. In December, the core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which excludes volatile food and energy prices, decelerated to 3.2% year-over-year but remained well above the Fed’s desired rate of 2%. For more cues on the current status of inflation, investors will focus on the US Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for December, which will be released on Friday. When asked about whether the Fed will follow President Trump’s call for immediate rate cuts, Powell said, “The committee is very much in the mode of waiting to see what policies are enacted.” In Thursday’s session, investors will focus on the preliminary US Q4 GDP data, which will be published at 13:30 GMT. The US economy is expected to have grown by 2.6% compared to the same quarter of 2023 but slower than the 3.1% growth in the previous quarter. Technical Analysis: EUR/USD drops to near 20-day EMAEUR/USD fell to near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 1.0395, on Wednesday in a corrective move from Monday's high of 1.0530. The major currency pair weakens after failing to sustain above the 50-day EMA, which trades around 1.0450. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) failed to climb above the 60.00 hurdle after recovering from below the 40.00 level, suggesting that the trend would be sideways. Looking down, the downward-sloping trendline from the September 30, 2024, high of 1.1209 will act as major support for the pair near the round level of 1.0300, followed by the January 20 low of 1.0266. Conversely, the December 6 high of 1.0630 will be the key barrier for the Euro bulls. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

11:07 AUD/JPY drops below 96.50, further downside appears due to potential BoJ rate hikes
AUD/JPY declines for the second consecutive day, hovering around 96.30 during European trading hours on Thursday.

11:01 Italy Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) below expectations (0.1%) in 4Q: Actual (0%)
Italy Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) below expectations (0.1%) in 4Q: Actual (0%)

11:01 Italy Gross Domestic Product (YoY) below forecasts (0.6%) in 4Q: Actual (0.5%)
Italy Gross Domestic Product (YoY) below forecasts (0.6%) in 4Q: Actual (0.5%)

11:01 German Preliminary GDP contracts 0.2% QoQ in Q4 vs. -0.1% expected
The German economy contracted by 0.2% over the quarter in the fourth quarter of 2024, following a 0.1% expansion in the third quarter, according to the preliminary data published by Destatis on Thursday.

11:00 Germany Gross Domestic Product w.d.a (YoY) down to -0.4% in 4Q from previous 0.1%
Germany Gross Domestic Product w.d.a (YoY) down to -0.4% in 4Q from previous 0.1%

11:00 Oil prices are trading little changed – ING
The oil market traded little changed in the morning session after falling sharply yesterday as oil inventory rose while uncertainty continued over US trade policy.

The oil market traded little changed in the morning session after falling sharply yesterday as oil inventory rose while uncertainty continued over US trade policy. Meanwhile, trading volumes were relatively subdued as the Chinese market has been closed for the Lunar New Year Holidays, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note. US weekly inventory numbers remain fairly bearish"US weekly inventory numbers from the EIA yesterday remained fairly bearish for the oil market. US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding SPR) increased by 3.5m barrels over the last week, well above the 2.86m barrels increase the API reported the previous day. This was the first weekly build reported since November. When factoring in the SPR, the build was even larger, with total US crude oil inventories rising by 3.7m barrels. Total US commercial crude oil stocks stand at 415m barrels, the highest level since late December.""In refined products, stocks of gasoline increased by 2.9m barrels, against a forecast for a build of just 0.35m barrels. However, distillate fuel oil stockpiles fell by around 5m barrels last week, compared to the market expecting a drawdown of 2.2m barrels. Meanwhile, refineries operated at 83.5% of their capacity following the declines in East Coast and Midwest refining rates along with lower refining rates on the Gulf Coast. This was down from the refining rates of 85.9% seen in the previous week."

11:00 Germany Gross Domestic Product (YoY) came in at -0.2%, below expectations (0%) in 4Q
Germany Gross Domestic Product (YoY) came in at -0.2%, below expectations (0%) in 4Q

11:00 Germany Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) came in at -0.2% below forecasts (-0.1%) in 4Q
Germany Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) came in at -0.2% below forecasts (-0.1%) in 4Q

10:57 EUR: Dovish ECB could weigh on EUR/USD – ING
It is a busy day for the European calendar dominated by GDP releases and the ECB meeting. France has just released a weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter GDP reading of -0.1% QoQ. Consumption and business investment were the weak links, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

It is a busy day for the European calendar dominated by GDP releases and the ECB meeting. France has just released a weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter GDP reading of -0.1% QoQ. Consumption and business investment were the weak links, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes. Downside risks to EUR/USD are evident"Remember, the threat of trade tariffs is normally a negative for business investment – something the IMF has modelled. Let's see how the German and Italian numbers fare at 10CET and then the provisional eurozone release at 11CET. Here the consensus for eurozone fourth-quarter growth currently stands at 0.1% QoQ, with seemingly downside risks.""Today's main event, however, is the ECB meeting – rate announcement 1415CET. A 25bp cut in the deposit rate to 2.75% is nailed on and instead the focus will be on ECB President Christine Lagarde's press conference. We see some downside risks if the market believes there is a chance of the ECB taking policy below neutral.""EUR/USD should be driven by events in Europe today, with a slight bias to the 1.0345/55 area should Lagarde sound quite dovish."

10:54 European gas prices surge – ING
European gas prices jumped to the highest level since October 2023 yesterday as unexpected supply disruptions and colder weather forecasts worsened the supply threats in an already tight market, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

European gas prices jumped to the highest level since October 2023 yesterday as unexpected supply disruptions and colder weather forecasts worsened the supply threats in an already tight market, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note. Rise in carbon prices is supporting the upward rally in gas"TTF front-month futures rose over 6% to close above EUR51/MWh as of yesterday as market participants remained concerned about volatile supplies of liquified natural gas following the recent production issues at some export facilities affecting fuel flows." "Meanwhile, the heating demand is expected to increase as temperatures are forecasted to drop over the coming days. Additionally, a rise in carbon prices is also supporting the upward rally in gas. Looking at inventories, the European gas storage is now only about 55% full, down from 72% at the same stage last year and below the five-year average of 62%."

10:42 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD looks to build on momentum beyond 100-day SMA/$31.00
Silver (XAG/USD) gains positive traction for the third consecutive day and climbs to its highest level since December 13 during the first half of the European session.

10:40 NZD/USD moves below 0.5650 as traders expect RBNZ to deliver another bumper rate cut
The NZD/USD pair extends its decline for the fourth consecutive day, trading near 0.5640 during European hours on Thursday.

10:11 USD/CAD trades with mild positive bias above 1.4400 ahead of US GDP
The USD/CAD pair rebounds over 40 pips from the intraday low and climbs to a fresh daily high, around the 1.4435 area during the early part of the European session on Thursday.

10:11 WTI falls toward $72.00 as traders await clarity on US trade policy
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude Oil price continues to decline for the second consecutive session, trading around $72.20 per barrel during early European hours on Thursday.

10:01 Austria Producer Price Index (YoY) rose from previous -2% to -1.1% in December
Austria Producer Price Index (YoY) rose from previous -2% to -1.1% in December

10:01 Austria Producer Price Index (MoM) declined to 0.3% in December from previous 0.4%
Austria Producer Price Index (MoM) declined to 0.3% in December from previous 0.4%

10:01 Spain Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) came in at -0.1%, above expectations (-0.3%) in January
Spain Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) came in at -0.1%, above expectations (-0.3%) in January

10:00 Spain Consumer Price Index (YoY) registered at 3% above expectations (2.6%) in January
Spain Consumer Price Index (YoY) registered at 3% above expectations (2.6%) in January

10:00 Spain Consumer Price Index (MoM) registered at 0.2% above expectations (0%) in January
Spain Consumer Price Index (MoM) registered at 0.2% above expectations (0%) in January

10:00 Austria Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) rose from previous -0.1% to 0% in 4Q
Austria Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) rose from previous -0.1% to 0% in 4Q

10:00 Spain Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) came in at 2.9%, above forecasts (2.8%) in January
Spain Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) came in at 2.9%, above forecasts (2.8%) in January

10:00 European Central Bank expected to cut interest rates again amid sticky inflation
The European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision will be announced on Thursday at 13:15 GMT following the conclusion of the January monetary policy meeting.

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50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The European Central Bank is set to lower key rates by 25 bps at the January policy meeting.ECB President Christine Lagarde’s words will hold the key to offering fresh policy cues.ECB policy announcements are expected to rock the EUR/USD pair and infuse intense volatility.The European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision will be announced on Thursday at 13:15 GMT following the conclusion of the January monetary policy meeting. Markets are anticipating another reduction in key rates, marking a continuation of the easing cycle after December’s rate cut. No updated staff economic projections will published at this meeting. ECB President Christine Lagarde will hold a press conference at 13:45 GMT, where she will deliver the prepared statement on monetary policy and respond to media questions. The ECB announcements will likely inject intense volatility around the Euro (EUR) against the US Dollar (USD). What to expect from the European Central Bank interest rate decision? After lowering key rates in December, the ECB is widely expected to announce another 25 basis points (bps) cut, taking the benchmark rate on deposit facility from 3% to 2.75%. It would be the fourth straight interest rates cut after trimming them in September, October and December 2024. In December’s post-policy meeting press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde said that "risks to growth are tilted to the downside,” while the “risk to inflation is now two-sided.” Speaking on the inflation and interest rate outlook in a CNBC interview last week, on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum (WEF) annual meetings in Davos, President Lagarde said: “We're confident Eurozone inflation will be at target over the course of 2025,” adding that “gradual moves in rates come to mind at the moment.” Eurostat’s preliminary data released on January 7 showed that the Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose 2.4% year-over-year (YoY) in December after reporting a 2.2% increase in November. The data aligned with the market forecast. The annual core HICP inflation held steady at 2.7% in the same period.Eurozone inflation remained elevated and moved slightly from the central bank’s 2.0% target in December. Economists at ABN Amro noted that “the rebound in headline inflation was driven largely by energy, with both the lower base from last year but also recent weakness in the Euro contributing to higher petrol prices, as well as higher gas and electricity prices with Europe running down its gas inventories somewhat faster than usual this winter. “ Subsequently, the accounts of the December ECB meeting published on January 16 showed: “There were still many upside and downside risks to the inflation outlook. More check points had to be passed to ascertain whether disinflation remained on track and kept open the optionality to make adjustments along the way.” Against this backdrop, the ECB’s communication in the policy statement and President Lagarde’s comments will hold the key to determining the scope and timing of the next rate cuts as the Bank battles concerns over economic growth and potential tariffs by United States (US) President Donald Trump’s administration. Previewing the ECB meeting, TD Securities analysts said: “This decision should be a fairly straightforward cut. Inflation data has been noisy but on net a touch weaker than expected in its December projections. Growth signs show no real signs of improving, either, adding to the soft backdrop.“ “We expect no real change in messaging around this one, but questions about the neutral rate are likely to crop up in the press conference,” the analysts added. How could the ECB meeting impact EUR/USD? In the lead-up to the ECB showdown, the EUR/USD pair is hovering near last Friday's five-week high of 1.0522. The pair’s further upside remains dependent on the outlook of ECB interest rates. ECB President Christine Lagarde is expected to maintain the rhetoric that the Bank is not on any pre-determined path on interest rates and will likely remain data-dependent. Lagarde could also reiterate her view of “gradual moves in rates”. In such a scenario, EUR/USD is set to extend the recovery momentum. However, the main currency pair could witness a fresh downtrend if Lagarde mentions that a 50 bps rate cut was discussed as an option in the meeting or expresses concerns over the economic prospects. Dhwani Mehta, Asian Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, offers a brief technical outlook for EUR/USD: “Despite EUR/USD’s recent corrective decline, the pair remains poised for further recovery as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator managed to defend the 50 level on the daily chart. If buyers recapture the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.0422 on a sustained basis, EUR/USD could make another run toward the 1.0500 level. Further up, the six-week high of 1.0533 will be challenged.” “If the downside regains traction, the immediate support of the 21-day SMA at 1.0355 will be tested. A fresh sell-off could be seen below that level, opening doors toward the 1.0300 round level. The last line of defense for EUR/USD buyers is seen at the January 17 low of 1.0265.” Economic Indicator ECB Rate On Deposit Facility One of the European Central Bank's three key interest rates, the rate on the deposit facility, is the rate at which banks earn interest when they deposit funds with the ECB. It is announced by the European Central Bank at each of its eight scheduled annual meetings. Read more. Next release: Thu Jan 30, 2025 13:15 Frequency: IrregularConsensus: 2.75%Previous: 3%Source: European Central Bank Interest rates FAQs What are interest rates? Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation. How do interest rates impact currencies? Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. How do interest rates influence the price of Gold? Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold. What is the Fed Funds rate? The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.

09:42 Forex Today: ECB policy decisions, US GDP data to drive market action
Here is what you need to know on Thursday, January 30: Markets turn relatively quiet early Thursday as investors gear up for the European Central Bank's (ECB) interest rate decision and the first estimate of the fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data from the US, while assessing the Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy announcements.

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The US economic calendar will also feature weekly Initial Jobless Claims and December Pending Home Sales data. US Dollar PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.78% 0.36% -0.71% 0.45% 1.55% 1.17% 0.17% EUR -0.78% -0.34% -1.32% -0.19% 0.77% 0.51% -0.50% GBP -0.36% 0.34% -1.31% 0.16% 1.12% 0.88% -0.15% JPY 0.71% 1.32% 1.31% 1.20% 2.46% 2.14% 1.03% CAD -0.45% 0.19% -0.16% -1.20% 0.91% 0.72% -0.31% AUD -1.55% -0.77% -1.12% -2.46% -0.91% -0.22% -1.23% NZD -1.17% -0.51% -0.88% -2.14% -0.72% 0.22% -1.23% CHF -0.17% 0.50% 0.15% -1.03% 0.31% 1.23% 1.23% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). Following the January meeting, the Fed left the policy rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.5% as expected. In its policy statement, the Fed removed the language suggesting inflation had "made progress" toward its 2% target, instead stating that the pace of price increases "remains elevated." While responding to questions from the press later, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that there was elevated uncertainty because of significant policy shifts. "We don't need to be in a hurry to make any adjustments," he added. After the Fed event, the probability of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut in March dropped below 20% from above-30%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) ended the day marginally higher before going into a consolidation phase at around 108.00 early Thursday. The ECB is expected to lower key rates by 25 bps on Thursday. ECB President Christine Lagarde will deliver the policy statement and respond to questions in a press conference starting at 13:45 GMT. EUR/USD fluctuates in a tight range slightly above 1.0400 after closing virtually unchanged on Wednesday. Eurostat will publish preliminary Q4 GDP data later in the session.GBP/USD continues to move up and down in a narrow range slightly below 1.2450 after failing to make a decisive move in either direction on Wednesday.USD/JPY stays under bearish pressure and trades near 154.50. Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino said on Thursday that the central bank will raise rates if the economy and prices move in line with forecasts. The Bank of Canada (BoC) lowered the policy rate by 25 bps to 3% after the January meeting, as anticipated. BoC Governor Tiff Macklem noted that the Canadian Dollar's movements had not constrained them so far but added that they will have to take bigger moves in the exchange rate into account as they set policy going forward. USD/CAD posted small gains on Wednesday and was last seen trading marginally higher on the day above 1.4400. After falling below $2,750 in the first half of the day on Wednesday, Gold regained its traction and erased a large portion of its daily losses. XAU/USD edges higher toward $2,770 in the early European session on Thursday. Central banks FAQs What does a central bank do? Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%. What does a central bank do when inflation undershoots or overshoots its projected target? A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing. Who decides on monetary policy and interest rates? A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%. Is there a president or head of a central bank? Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.

09:13 EUR/GBP recovers some lost ground above 0.8350, eyes on ECB rate decision
The EUR/GBP cross rebounds to near 0.8370, snapping the five-day losing streak during the early European trading hours on Thursday.

09:10 US GDP expected to confirm solid economic growth in Q4 despite easing from previous quarter
The United States (US) Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is scheduled to release the preliminary estimate of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the October-December quarter on Thursday.

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.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The United States Gross Domestic Product is expected to grow at an annualised rate of 2.8% in Q4 2024.The US economy is expected to keep growing at a healthy pace.The US Dollar is in recovery mode amid ruling risk aversion. The United States (US) Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is scheduled to release the preliminary estimate of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the October-December quarter on Thursday. Analysts anticipate that the report will indicate an annualised economic growth rate of 2.8%, slightly below the 3.1% posted in the third quarter of the year. What to expect from GDP figures this time The BEA’s preliminary GDP release is the most important for financial markets, as the figure is the ultimate indicator of US economic health. Alongside growth data, the report includes fresh Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) - Price Index figures, the Federal Reserve's (Fed) favourite inflation gauge. The current release is a bit tricky, as the Fed announced its monetary policy decision to keep interest rates on hold ahead of GDP and PCE updates, and financial markets are still digesting the latest on that front. Back in December, the Fed published its latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) or dot plot, which showed upward revisions in 2025 year-end growth to 2.1% from 2% and to core inflation to 2.5% from 2.1%. Generally speaking, the latest SEP suggested policymakers expected continued economic expansion and inflation to remain above their 2% goal for some more time. Beyond the headline GDP reading, market participants anticipate the Q4 core PCE Price Index will print at 2.5%, higher than the 2.2% posted in Q3. Other than that, the report includes the GDP Price Index, which tracks changes in the prices of goods and services produced domestically, including exports but excluding imports. This index provides a clear view of how inflation is affecting GDP. For the fourth quarter, the GDP Price Index is expected to increase by 2.5%, up from the 1.9% rise seen in the third quarter. It is worth adding that the GDPNow model from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta estimates real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2024 is 3.2% on Tuesday, up from 3.0% on January 17. When will the GDP print be released and how can it affect the USD? The US GDP report will be published at 13:30 GMT on Wednesday. In addition to the headline real GDP figure, changes in private domestic purchases, the GDP Price Index and the Q4 PCE Price Index figures could impact the US Dollar’s (USD) valuation. A better-than-anticipated GDP headline could support the Fed’s dovish case and pressure the USD while discouraging figures could have the opposite effect on the American currency. Valeria Bednarik, FXStreet Chief Analyst, says: “The US Dollar Index (DXY) recovered amid a risk-averse environment at the beginning of the week but stands far below the monthly high posted in mid-January at 110.18. At the same time, the ongoing advance lacks momentum, according to technical readings in the daily chart. The January 23 intraday high at 108.50 comes as an immediate barrier ahead of the 109.00 figure. Should the index surpass the latter, market players will be looking at the 109.40-109.50 region as a potential bullish target.” Bednarik adds: “A decline below 107.75, the January 29 intraday low, exposes the monthly bottom at 106.97. Still, and given the risk-averse environment, US Dollar dips could be seen as buying opportunities, with additional falls unlikely in the near term.” US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar. Economic Indicator Gross Domestic Product Annualized The real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized, released quarterly by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, measures the value of the final goods and services produced in the United States in a given period of time. Changes in GDP are the most popular indicator of the nation’s overall economic health. The data is expressed at an annualized rate, which means that the rate has been adjusted to reflect the amount GDP would have changed over a year’s time, had it continued to grow at that specific rate. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Thu Jan 30, 2025 13:30 (Prel)Frequency: QuarterlyConsensus: 2.6%Previous: 3.1%Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis Why it matters to traders? The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth on an annualized basis for each quarter. After publishing the first estimate, the BEA revises the data two more times, with the third release representing the final reading. Usually, the first estimate is the main market mover and a positive surprise is seen as a USD-positive development while a disappointing print is likely to weigh on the greenback. Market participants usually dismiss the second and third releases as they are generally not significant enough to meaningfully alter the growth picture.

09:01 Switzerland Imports (MoM) declined to 18135M in December from previous 18257M
Switzerland Imports (MoM) declined to 18135M in December from previous 18257M

09:01 Switzerland Exports (MoM): 21630M (December) vs previous 23682M
Switzerland Exports (MoM): 21630M (December) vs previous 23682M

09:01 Switzerland Trade Balance declined to 3494M in December from previous 5424M
Switzerland Trade Balance declined to 3494M in December from previous 5424M

09:01 Germany Import Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.4%, above expectations (0.3%) in December
Germany Import Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.4%, above expectations (0.3%) in December

09:00 Germany Import Price Index (YoY) above forecasts (1.9%) in December: Actual (2%)
Germany Import Price Index (YoY) above forecasts (1.9%) in December: Actual (2%)

09:00 Turkey Economic Confidence Index increased to 99.7 in January from previous 98.8
Turkey Economic Confidence Index increased to 99.7 in January from previous 98.8

08:30 France Consumer Spending (MoM) above expectations (0.2%) in December: Actual (0.7%)
France Consumer Spending (MoM) above expectations (0.2%) in December: Actual (0.7%)

08:30 France Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) came in at -0.1% below forecasts (0%) in 4Q
France Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) came in at -0.1% below forecasts (0%) in 4Q

08:27 BoJ’s Himino: Will raise rates if economy, prices move in line with forecast
Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino said on Thursday, the central bank “will raise rates if economy and prices move in line with forecast.

Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino said on Thursday, the central bank “will raise rates if economy and prices move in line with forecast. Additional comments BoJ continues to support economy with accommodative monetary environment. Still some distance for Japan to enter world of positive real interest rate. When shock hits the economy or various deflationary factors remain, it might be necessary to keep real rates in negative territory. If shocks, deflationary factors disappear, it's not normal for real rates to remain clearly negative for a prolonged period. Level of real interest rate that is neutral to economy is affected by various factors, not just demographics. Ideal outlook for Japan would be for economic growth to boost wages, corporate profits, thereby leading to moderate inflation. There are questions as to why estimated output gap has not improved markedly despite real interest rates remaining clearly negative. Market reaction At the time of writing, USD/JPY is picking up fresh bids to trade near 154.75, still down 0.28% on the day.

08:08 GBP/USD Price Forecast: Bearish outlook remains in play below 1.2450
The GBP/USD pair trades with mild gains around 1.2445 during the early European trading hours on Thursday.

07:47 USD/CHF remains steady near 0.9050 ahead of Swiss Trade Balance data
USD/CHF steadies after two consecutive days of gains, trading around 0.9070 during the Asian session on Thursday.

07:16 EUR/JPY attracts some sellers to near 161.00, ECB rate decision in focus
The EUR/JPY cross extends the decline to near 161.05 during the early European session on Thursday.

06:55 EUR/USD holds steady above 1.0400; looks to ECB for fresh impetus
The EUR/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the overnight bounce from the 1.0380 area or the weekly low and oscillates in a narrow band during the Asian session on Thursday.

06:41 EUR/USD holds gains above 1.0400 ahead of GDP Q4, ECB policy decision
EUR/USD inches higher after three consecutive losses, trading around 1.0420 during Asian hours on Thursday.

06:35 India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices rose in India on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

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The price for Gold stood at 7,688.76 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 7,667.66 it cost on Wednesday. The price for Gold increased to INR 89,680.16 per tola from INR 89,434.10 per tola a day earlier. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 7,688.76 10 Grams 76,887.57 Tola 89,680.16 Troy Ounce 239,145.50 FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly. Related newsGold price trades with mild positive bias, seems poised to climb further Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD ranges below record highs as focus shifts to US GDP data Gold's uphill battle as Fed holds rates Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

06:22 Gold price trades with mild positive bias, seems poised to climb further
Gold price (XAU/USD) ticks higher during the Asian session on Thursday, though it lacks follow-through and remains confined in the weekly range amid mixed fundamental cues.

05:52 Japan’s Hayashi: Monitoring the Fed decision impact on the economy
Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said on Thursday, he is “monitoring the Fed decision impact on Japan’s economy as the US is Japan's largest outbound investment destination.” Additional comments Will to finalize timing of meeting between Japanese PM Shigeru Ishiba and US President Donald Trump.

Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said on Thursday, he is “monitoring the Fed decision impact on Japan’s economy as the US is Japan's largest outbound investment destination.” Additional comments Will to finalize timing of meeting between Japanese PM Shigeru Ishiba and US President Donald Trump. Emphasizes AI as a key factor for promoting innovation and addressing risks. Market reaction At press time, USD/JPY is trading 0.45% lower on the day, ranging at around 154.50.

05:47 RBA Bulletin studies how changes to interest rates affect economic activity and inflation
The Reserve Bank of Australia published its January 2025 Bulletin, including an in-depth explainer on how: Changes to monetary policy affect interest rates in the economy.

05:37 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rises to near $31.00 amid dovish signals from central banks
Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its winning streak for the third consecutive session, trading around $30.90 per troy ounce during Asian trading hours on Thursday.

05:03 USD/INR softens ahead of US GDP data
The Indian Rupee (INR) recovers some lost ground on Thursday after facing some selling pressure in the previous session.

04:26 Japanese Yen moves back closer to multi-week top against USD
The Japanese Yen (JPY) remains on the front foot for the second successive day against its American counterpart and drags the USD/JPY pair below mid-154.00s during the Asian session on Thursday.

04:10 USD/CAD Price Forecast: Holds position above 1.4400 support near nine-day EMA
The USD/CAD pair pauses its three-day winning streak, hovering around 1.4410 during Thursday's Asian session.

03:49 NZD/USD recovers above 0.5650 amid tariff uncertainty
The NZD/USD pair recovers some lost ground to around 0.5660, snapping the three-day losing streak during the early Asian session on Thursday.

03:26 Australian Dollar edges higher as export prices rise in Q4
The Australian Dollar (AUD) breaks its three-day losing streak against the US Dollar (USD) after the release of the Export Price Index on Thursday.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian Dollar appreciates following the release of the Export Price Index on Thursday.Australian Bureau of Statistics showed export prices rose by 3.6% QoQ in Q4 2024, reversing a 4.3% decline in Q3.The Fed held its overnight borrowing rate steady in the 4.25%-4.50% range at its January meeting on Wednesday.The Australian Dollar (AUD) breaks its three-day losing streak against the US Dollar (USD) after the release of the Export Price Index on Thursday. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed export prices rose by 3.6% quarter-over-quarter in Q4 2024, reversing a 4.3% decline in Q3 and marking the first increase since Q4 2023. Australia’s Import Price Index rose by 0.2% QoQ in Q4 2024, rebounding from a 1.4% drop in Q3 and surpassing market expectations of a 1.5% decline. The increase was primarily driven by surging Gold prices, which hit an all-time high in October as investors sought safe-haven assets amid ongoing economic uncertainty. The AUD/USD pair weakened as the US Dollar (USD) gained broadly. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, as expected, but provided little indication of potential rate cuts this year, reinforcing USD strength. Easing inflationary pressures toward the end of 2024 have fueled speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could consider a rate cut in February. The RBA has maintained the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 4.35% since November 2023, emphasizing that inflation must “sustainably” return to its 2%-3% target range before any policy easing. Australian Dollar gains ground despite Fed’s cautious tone The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the US Dollar’s value against six major currencies, remains steady around 108.00 at the time of writing. US Federal Reserve held its overnight borrowing rate steady in the 4.25%-4.50% range at its January meeting on Wednesday, as widely expected. This decision followed three consecutive rate cuts since September 2024, totaling a full percentage point. The US Dollar strengthened after the Fed adopted a cautious tone. During the press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that the central bank would need to see “real progress on inflation or some weakness in the labor market” before considering any further adjustments to monetary policy. Scott Bessent, the Treasury Secretary under Trump, stated that he aims to introduce new universal tariffs on US imports, starting at 2.5%. These tariffs could rise to as much as 20%, reflecting Trump’s aggressive stance on trade policies, consistent with his campaign rhetoric last year. Speaking with reporters aboard Air Force One early Tuesday, US President Donald Trump stated that he “wants tariffs ‘much bigger’ than 2.5%,” as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent proposed. However, Trump has not yet decided on the specific tariff levels. Australia’s CPI rose by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter of 2024, matching the growth seen in the previous quarter but falling short of the market expectation of 0.3%. On an annual basis, CPI inflation eased to 2.4% in Q4 from 2.8% in Q3, also below the consensus forecast of 2.5%. Australia’s Monthly CPI for December 2024 increased by 2.5% year-over-year, in line with forecasts and up from November’s 2.3%. This marked the highest reading since August but remained within the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target range of 2% to 3% for the fourth consecutive month. The RBA’s Trimmed Mean CPI rose by 3.2% YoY, the slowest pace in three years, slightly under the expected 3.3% but still above the central bank’s target range. Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers stated on Wednesday that "the worst of the inflation challenge is well and truly behind us." Chalmers further emphasized that "the soft landing we have been planning and preparing for is looking more and more likely," according to Reuters. The AUD also faced challenges amid increased risk aversion due to tariff threats made by US President Donald Trump. President Trump announced plans on Monday evening to impose tariffs on imports of computer chips, pharmaceuticals, steel, aluminum, and copper. The goal is to shift production to the United States (US) and bolster domestic manufacturing. Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar remains below 0.6250 and ascending channel The AUD/USD pair trades near 0.6230 on Thursday, remaining slightly below the ascending channel on the daily chart, signaling a shift toward a bearish bias. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below the 50 level, reinforcing the bearish sentiment in the market. A decisive break below the key support zone at the lower boundary of the ascending channel has further strengthened the bearish outlook. This could push the AUD/USD pair toward the 0.6131 level, its lowest since April 2020, recorded on January 13. On the upside, immediate resistance lies at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6252, followed by the channel’s lower boundary at 0.6280. A rebound above this level and a return into the ascending channel could shift the bias back to bullish, with the pair potentially targeting the upper boundary near 0.6380. AUD/USD: Daily ChartAustralian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.09% -0.05% -0.48% -0.09% -0.11% -0.11% -0.08% EUR 0.09% 0.04% -0.35% -0.00% -0.03% -0.02% 0.00% GBP 0.05% -0.04% -0.40% -0.03% -0.06% -0.06% -0.03% JPY 0.48% 0.35% 0.40% 0.39% 0.35% 0.32% 0.38% CAD 0.09% 0.00% 0.03% -0.39% -0.02% -0.03% -0.00% AUD 0.11% 0.03% 0.06% -0.35% 0.02% 0.00% 0.03% NZD 0.11% 0.02% 0.06% -0.32% 0.03% -0.00% 0.02% CHF 0.08% -0.01% 0.03% -0.38% 0.00% -0.03% -0.02% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

03:09 US President Donald Trump to rescind Biden highway climate rule for states - Reuters
US President Donald Trump's administration late Wednesday plans to rescind a climate rule adopted by the administration of former President Joe Biden requiring states to measure and set declining targets for greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles using the national highway system, per Reuters.

02:54 BoC’s Macklem: Tariff threat affecting Canadian Dollar more than interest rate differences
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said late Wednesday that the central bank can’t repair the economic damage of a trade war with the US, but he will do his best to make it less painful, per Bloomberg.

02:30 Australia Import Price Index (QoQ) came in at 0.2%, above forecasts (-1.5%) in 4Q
Australia Import Price Index (QoQ) came in at 0.2%, above forecasts (-1.5%) in 4Q

02:30 Australia Export Price Index (QoQ) climbed from previous -4.3% to 3.6% in 4Q
Australia Export Price Index (QoQ) climbed from previous -4.3% to 3.6% in 4Q

02:21 Canada’s Joly says 'cautiously optimistic' about tariff talks
Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly met with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Washington, DC on Wednesday.

02:00 New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence dipped from previous 62.3 to 54.4 in January
New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence dipped from previous 62.3 to 54.4 in January

02:00 WTI drifts lower to near $72.50 as US stockpile rises
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $72.60 during the late American session on Wednesday.

01:50 Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks up to ¥753B in January 24 from previous ¥-66.1B
Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks up to ¥753B in January 24 from previous ¥-66.1B

01:37 EUR/USD middles post-Fed, US GDP data in the pipe
EUR/USD drifted into the low side on Wednesday, dipping below 1.0400 before getting pushed back into touch range of the day’s opening bids.

01:25 GBP/USD tests the water near 1.24 as key US data looms
GBP/USD spun in a tight circle on Wednesday, briefly dipping into the 1.2400 handle after the Federal Reserve (Fed) kept interest rates on hold.

01:03 USD/CAD holds positive ground above 1.4400 as Fed holds rates steady
The USD/CAD pair gains ground to around 1.4420 during the late American session on Thursday.

00:04 Brazil Interest Rate Decision in line with forecasts (13.25%)
Brazil Interest Rate Decision in line with forecasts (13.25%)

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23:43 New Zealand ANZ – Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down to 96 in January from previous 100.2 New Zealand ANZ – Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down to 96 in January from previous 100.2

23:00 Mexico Fiscal Balance, pesos dipped from previous -110.23B to -618.56B in December Mexico Fiscal Balance, pesos dipped from previous -110.23B to -618.56B in December

22:46 Australian Dollar sees mild gains as markets assess US Q4 GDP and Fed outlook AUD/USD remains range-bound above 0.6200 on Thursday as markets assess the United States (US) fourth-quarter GDP release, which could shape the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate outlook.

20:26 Canadian Dollar middles as markets mull over mixed US data The Canadian Dollar (CAD) went nowhere fast on Thursday, cycling near the 1.4400 handle against the US Dollar (USD).

19:06 Dow Jones Industrial Average middles on Thursday after mixed data and earnings The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) churned on Thursday, marking in tracks around 44,700 but sticking close to the day’s opening bids.

18:32 United States 4-Week Bill Auction fell from previous 4.265% to 4.25% United States 4-Week Bill Auction fell from previous 4.265% to 4.25%

18:15 AUD/USD neutral as US GDP data misses expectations The AUD/USD pair stands neutral around 0.6235 on Thursday, struggling to gain traction ahead of the US Q4 GDP data release.

17:30 United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change came in at -321B below forecasts (-313B) in January 24 United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change came in at -321B below forecasts (-313B) in January 24

17:16 USD/JPY falls as US GDP misses estimates bolstering Yen The USD/JPY retreats in early trading during the North American session after economic data showed the US economy grew lower than expected a day after the Federal Reserve (Fed) decided to keep rates unchanged.

17:09 Gold challenges record highs post ECB, US GDP XAU/USD trades dangerously close to its record high in the $2,790 region as the latest macroeconomic developments put pressure on the US Dollar (USD).

17:04 Gold reaches new all-time highs – TDS Gold prices are pushing to new all-time highs as we expected, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.

17:00 United States Pending Home Sales (YoY) fell from previous 6.9% to -5% in December United States Pending Home Sales (YoY) fell from previous 6.9% to -5% in December

17:00 United States Pending Home Sales (MoM) came in at -5.5%, below expectations (0%) in December United States Pending Home Sales (MoM) came in at -5.5%, below expectations (0%) in December

16:25 USD/CAD trades subduedly above 1.4400 despite US Dollar slides after US data The USD/CAD pair trades in a subdued manner above the key support of 1.4400 in Thursday’s North American session.

16:24 Lagarde speech: There is no stagflation Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to lower key rates by 25 basis points at the January policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.

16:14 Lagarde speech: Confident that inflation will hit target in 2025 Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to lower key rates by 25 basis points at the January policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.

15:59 Lagarde speech: Risk of greater friction in global trade could weigh on Euro area growth Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to lower key rates by 25 basis points at the January policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.

15:54 Lagarde speech: If trade tensions don't escalate, exports should support recovery Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to lower key rates by 25 basis points at the January policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.

15:49 A break below 153.35 for USD/JPY is going to be a bearish signal – Rabobank The JPY has extended its better tone today, reinforcing its position as the best performing G10 currency on a 1 day, 5 day and month-to-date view, Rabobank's FX analyst Jane Foley notes.

15:39 US: Initial Jobless Claims rose to 207K last week US citizens filing new applications for unemployment insurance rose to 207K for the week ending January 25, as reported by the US Department of Labor (DoL) on Thursday.

15:30 United States Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ) climbed from previous 1.5% to 2.3% in 4Q United States Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ) climbed from previous 1.5% to 2.3% in 4Q

15:30 United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ) in line with expectations (2.5%) in 4Q United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ) in line with expectations (2.5%) in 4Q

15:30 United States Gross Domestic Product Price Index came in at 2.2%, below expectations (2.5%) in 4Q United States Gross Domestic Product Price Index came in at 2.2%, below expectations (2.5%) in 4Q

15:30 United States Gross Domestic Product Annualized came in at 2.3%, below expectations (2.6%) in 4Q United States Gross Domestic Product Annualized came in at 2.3%, below expectations (2.6%) in 4Q

15:30 United States Initial Jobless Claims below expectations (220K) in January 24: Actual (207K) United States Initial Jobless Claims below expectations (220K) in January 24: Actual (207K)

15:30 United States Continuing Jobless Claims below forecasts (1.89M) in January 17: Actual (1.858M) United States Continuing Jobless Claims below forecasts (1.89M) in January 17: Actual (1.858M)

15:30 United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average declined to 212.5K in January 24 from previous 213.5K United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average declined to 212.5K in January 24 from previous 213.5K

15:24 GBP edges lower in range – Scotiabank UK lending data was a bit firmer than expected in December; data showed stronger demand for mortgages and lending secured on housing, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

15:18 CAD is trading steady after BoC – Scotiabank The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is little changed. The BoC policy decision yesterday suggested a cautious outlook for monetary policy amid heightened uncertainty around tariffs.

15:15 Eurozone ECB Rate On Deposit Facility meets forecasts (2.75%) Eurozone ECB Rate On Deposit Facility meets forecasts (2.75%)

15:15 Eurozone ECB Main Refinancing Operations Rate in line with forecasts (2.9%) Eurozone ECB Main Refinancing Operations Rate in line with forecasts (2.9%)

15:14 USD mixed versus majors as markets hold ranges – Scotiabank The US Dollar (USD) is trading mixed to a little higher overall. Trading remains relatively quiet and movement in the major currencies remains largely confined to recent ranges, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

15:11 EUR softer as Eurozone Q4 GDP stagnates – Scotiabank The ECB is expected to cut its policy rate 25bps today, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

15:05 South Africa SARB Interest Rate Decision in line with forecasts (7.5%) South Africa SARB Interest Rate Decision in line with forecasts (7.5%)

15:00 Russia Central Bank Reserves $ increased to $619.7B from previous $609.7B Russia Central Bank Reserves $ increased to $619.7B from previous $609.7B

14:01 Mexico Gross Domestic Product (YoY) came in at 0.6% below forecasts (1.2%) in 4Q Mexico Gross Domestic Product (YoY) came in at 0.6% below forecasts (1.2%) in 4Q

14:00 Mexico Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) below expectations (-0.2%) in 4Q: Actual (-0.6%) Mexico Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) below expectations (-0.2%) in 4Q: Actual (-0.6%)

13:50 AUD/USD consolidates around 0.6220 as US Q4 GDP takes centre stage The AUD/USD pair trades in a tight range around 0.6220 in Thursday’s European session.

13:46 US Dollar focus shifts to Europe for upcoming ECB meeting The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar against six major currencies, trades flat at around 108.00 at the time of writing on Thursday.

13:11 Pound Sterling ranges against USD ahead of US Q4 GDP, PCE inflation The Pound Sterling (GBP) ticks slightly higher to near 1.2460 against the US Dollar (USD) in European trading hours on Thursday.

13:06 Energy Markets: Europe's carbon and power markets in turmoil – Rabobank The European Union’s carbon market has started the year strong, with prices rising above €82/t CO2e on several occasions after falling to an average of €67/t CO2e in 2024.

13:01 Italy Industrial Sales n.s.a. (YoY) rose from previous -5.3% to -2.6% in November Italy Industrial Sales n.s.a. (YoY) rose from previous -5.3% to -2.6% in November

13:01 Italy Industrial Sales s.a. (MoM): 1.5% (November) vs 0.5% Italy Industrial Sales s.a. (MoM): 1.5% (November) vs 0.5%

12:55 JPY is the top performing major currencies overnight – BBH The Japanese Yen (JPY) is the top performing major currencies overnight. There is no fundamental trigger behind broad JPY strength, BBH FX analysts note.

12:37 USD/JPY Price Forecast: Japanese Yen strengthens as BoJ hawkish bets swell The USD/JPY pair slumps to near 154.30 in Thursday’s European session.

12:30 Italy 5-y Bond Auction up to 2.95% from previous 2.79% Italy 5-y Bond Auction up to 2.95% from previous 2.79%

12:30 Italy 10-y Bond Auction increased to 3.6% from previous 3.39% Italy 10-y Bond Auction increased to 3.6% from previous 3.39%

12:30 Belgium Consumer Price Index (YoY) up to 4.08% in January from previous 3.16% Belgium Consumer Price Index (YoY) up to 4.08% in January from previous 3.16%

12:30 Belgium Consumer Price Index (MoM) up to 1.39% in January from previous 0.4% Belgium Consumer Price Index (MoM) up to 1.39% in January from previous 0.4%

12:02 Eurozone Industrial Confidence above expectations (-13.8) in January: Actual (-12.9) Eurozone Industrial Confidence above expectations (-13.8) in January: Actual (-12.9)

12:02 Eurozone Services Sentiment came in at 6.6, above forecasts (6) in January Eurozone Services Sentiment came in at 6.6, above forecasts (6) in January

12:02 Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator came in at 95.2, above expectations (94.1) in January Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator came in at 95.2, above expectations (94.1) in January

12:02 Eurozone Consumer Confidence meets forecasts (-14.2) in January Eurozone Consumer Confidence meets forecasts (-14.2) in January

12:01 Italy Unemployment above expectations (5.7%) in December: Actual (6.2%) Italy Unemployment above expectations (5.7%) in December: Actual (6.2%)

12:01 Eurozone Business Climate dipped from previous -0.91 to -0.94 in January Eurozone Business Climate dipped from previous -0.91 to -0.94 in January

12:01 Eurozone Preliminary GDP arrives at 0% QoQ in Q4 vs. 0.1% expected The Eurozone economy shows no growth in the three months to December of 2024 after reporting a 0.4% expansion in the third quarter, the preliminary estimate released by Eurostat showed Thursday.

12:00 Greece Producer Price Index (YoY): -0.8% (December) vs -1.2% Greece Producer Price Index (YoY): -0.8% (December) vs -1.2%

12:00 Greece Unemployment Rate (MoM) dipped from previous 9.6% to 9.4% in December Greece Unemployment Rate (MoM) dipped from previous 9.6% to 9.4% in December

12:00 Eurozone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) registered at 0%, below expectations (0.1%) in 4Q Eurozone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) registered at 0%, below expectations (0.1%) in 4Q

12:00 Eurozone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) below expectations (1%) in 4Q: Actual (0.9%) Eurozone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) below expectations (1%) in 4Q: Actual (0.9%)

12:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate in line with expectations (6.3%) in December Eurozone Unemployment Rate in line with expectations (6.3%) in December

11:58 Gold edges higher ahead of US GDP release Gold’s price (XAU/USD) trades back above $2,765 at the time of writing on Thursday and looks to be on its way again to a fresh all-time high. Bullion could not make that happen on Wednesday after a rather hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) decision on

11:50 6% of the 7% rise in USD/CAD since October is down to a risk premium – ING As the Bank of Canada concluded in two great articles in its Monetary Policy Report released yesterday, tariffs could be a massive game-changer, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

11:31 United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals (MoM) above forecasts (£3.6B) in December: Actual (£4.6B) United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals (MoM) above forecasts (£3.6B) in December: Actual (£4.6B)

11:31 United Kingdom M4 Money Supply (YoY) fell from previous 2.9% to 2.5% in December United Kingdom M4 Money Supply (YoY) fell from previous 2.9% to 2.5% in December

11:30 Portugal Business Confidence climbed from previous 2.7 to 2.8 in January Portugal Business Confidence climbed from previous 2.7 to 2.8 in January

11:30 Portugal Consumer Confidence dipped from previous -15 to -15.1 in January Portugal Consumer Confidence dipped from previous -15 to -15.1 in January

11:30 United Kingdom M4 Money Supply (MoM) came in at 0.1%, below expectations (0.2%) in December United Kingdom M4 Money Supply (MoM) came in at 0.1%, below expectations (0.2%) in December

11:30 Portugal Gross Domestic Product (YoY): 2.7% (4Q) vs 1.9% Portugal Gross Domestic Product (YoY): 2.7% (4Q) vs 1.9%

11:30 Portugal Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) up to 1.5% in 4Q from previous 0.2% Portugal Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) up to 1.5% in 4Q from previous 0.2%

11:30 South Africa Producer Price Index (MoM) rose from previous 0% to 0.2% in December South Africa Producer Price Index (MoM) rose from previous 0% to 0.2% in December

11:30 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Thursday, according to FXStreet data.

11:30 United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals above forecasts (65.4K) in December: Actual (66.526K) United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals above forecasts (65.4K) in December: Actual (66.526K)

11:30 South Africa Producer Price Index (YoY) climbed from previous -0.1% to 0.7% in December South Africa Producer Price Index (YoY) climbed from previous -0.1% to 0.7% in December

11:30 United Kingdom Consumer Credit came in at £1.045B, above expectations (£0.95B) in December United Kingdom Consumer Credit came in at £1.045B, above expectations (£0.95B) in December

11:29 NZD/USD is being weighed on under 0.5700 – BBH NZD/USD is heavy under 0.5700 and trading close to the level implied by 2-year NZ-US bond yield spreads. New Zealand January ANZ business outlook survey was disappointing but still extremely high, BBH FX analysts report.

11:26 Aluminum climbs as EU readies ban on Russian imports – ING Aluminum rose in yesterday’s trading after reports of the EU proposing a phased ban on imports of Russian Aluminum to the bloc. The proposal calls for an import quota for a year before the complete ban comes into effect.

11:21 EUR/USD: Next objectives are located at 1.0570/1.0630 – Société Générale EUR/USD bounce has stalled after facing interim resistance near 1.0535 earlier this week, Société Générale's FX analysts note.

11:18 EUR/USD trades with caution ahead of ECB interest rate decision, Eurozone-US Q4 GDP EUR/USD trades cautiously around 1.0420 in Thursday’s European session as investors focus on the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy decision, which will be announced at 13:15 GMT.