ไทม์ไลน์ข่าวสาร forex

23:48 Gold prices wobble as Fed maintains hawkish stance on policy
Gold prices edged lower as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered a hawkish hold.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold prices show modest reaction to Fed's rate hold, hinting at future rate hike pauses.Fed Chair Powell adopts patient stance on policy, influenced by changing fiscal and trade environments.Investors focus on Powell's insights for future Fed actions, anticipating upcoming economic data.Gold prices edged lower as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered a hawkish hold. The Fed removed inflation language, an indication of a pivot towards maintaining rates unchanged. The XAU/USD trades volatile within the $2,750 - $2,740 range as Fed Chair Jerome Powell crossed the wires. Powell’s first question was about having been contacted by US President Donald Trump. He answered he had not spoken with Trump and firmly stated that he wouldn’t comment on Trump’s policies or politics. In addition, Powell said that monetary policy is “less restrictive than it had been,” adding that the Fed is not in a rush to adjust rates. He added that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is in wait-and-see mode, eyeing fiscal and trade policies implemented by the new US administration. Powell clarified the Fed doesn’t have a pre-set course on setting interest rates, and when asked about the March meeting, he said they’re not in a rush. Given the backdrop, XAU/USD seesawed, yet it remains near $2,750 modestly lower. After the Fed’s decision, traders are eyeing the release of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, jobs data, and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. Daily digest market movers: Gold price losses ground after Powell’s press conference Earlier, the Federal Reserve unanimously decided to hold rates unchanged at the 4.25% - 4.50% range and dropped inflation language, which traders perceived as indicating that the Fed would keep rates higher for longer. The statement added that the economy is expanding solidly, the unemployment rate has stabilized, and labor market conditions remain solid. Additionally, it added that it remained focused on both sides of the dual mandate. The Fed's decision was unanimous. The US 10-year Treasury yield rises one basis point up to 4.549% and caps Gold’s advance. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck’s value against a basket of six currencies, climbs 0.12%, up at 108.04, a headwind for Bullion. Given the backdrop, Gold prices extended their losses, yet they were quite moderate as traders await Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that investors expect 50 basis points of easing through 2025, with the first-rate cut seen in June. XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold’s uptrend intact, as XAU/SD hovers near $2,750 Gold price uptrend remains intact even though the yellow metal dips slightly following the Fed’s decision. XAU/USD hit a daily low of $2,744, trimming some of its earlier losses, and it seems poised to form a ‘bullish harami’ candle pattern, which suggests that higher prices are expected. In that outcome, XAU/USD next resistance would be the January 24 high at $2,785. A breach of the latter will expose the record high at $2,790, followed by $2,800. Conversely, if Gold extends its losses and drops below $2,750, the next support would be the $2,730, the January 27 swing low. A breach of the latter will expose $2,700.Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

23:45 New Zealand Trade Balance NZD (YoY) climbed from previous $-8.25B to $-7.67B in December
New Zealand Trade Balance NZD (YoY) climbed from previous $-8.25B to $-7.67B in December

23:45 New Zealand Trade Balance NZD (MoM) above forecasts ($-1365M) in December: Actual ($219M)
New Zealand Trade Balance NZD (MoM) above forecasts ($-1365M) in December: Actual ($219M)

23:45 New Zealand Imports down to $6.62B in December from previous $6.92B
New Zealand Imports down to $6.62B in December from previous $6.92B

23:45 New Zealand Exports up to $6.84B in December from previous $6.48B
New Zealand Exports up to $6.84B in December from previous $6.48B

23:30 Brazil Interest Rate Decision came in at 12.25%, below expectations (13.25%)
Brazil Interest Rate Decision came in at 12.25%, below expectations (13.25%)

22:46 Forex Today: Investors’ focus shifts to the ECB meeting and data
The US Dollar traded in a positive fashion after the Fed left its interest rates unchanged, as widely anticipated, and Chief Powell delivered a neutral message at his press conference.

The US Dollar traded in a positive fashion after the Fed left its interest rates unchanged, as widely anticipated, and Chief Powell delivered a neutral message at his press conference.Here is what you need to know on Thursday, January 30: The US Dollar Index (DXY) kept the weekly bid bias in place helped by rising yields and Powell’s tone. Another revision of Q4 GDP Growth Rate is due seconded by the weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and Pending Home Sales. EUR/USD dropped to the sub-1.0400 region, or four-day lows, in response to further strength in the Greenback and prudence ahead of the ECB event on Thursday. The ECB meeting and press conference by President C. Lagarde will take centre stage, followed by preliminary Q4 GDP Growth Rate prints in Germany and the broader Euroland, as well as EMU’s Unemployment Rate, Consumer Confidence and Economic Sentiment.GBP/USD rebounded from lows in the sub-1.2400 region, eventually ending the day around Tuesday’s closing levels. The BoE’s M4 Money Supply and Consumer Credit figures are expected along with Mortgage Approvals and Mortgage Lending.USD/JPY remained choppy, trading just above the 155.00 hurdle and fading part of Tuesday’s advance. The usual weekly Foreign Bond Investment figures will be released followed by the speech by the BoJ’s Himino. AUD/USD retreated for the third consecutive day, this time putting the 0.6200 support to the test. Export and Import Prices in Australia are due along with the speech by the RBA’s Jones. WTI resumed its bearish leg and broke below the $73.00 mark per barrel to flirt with fresh four-week lows. Gold prices faced renewed downside pressure, briefly revisiting the $2,750 zone per ounce troy following USD dynamics and the FOMC gathering. Silver prices added to Tuesday’s advance and flirted with multi-day peaks near the $31.00 mark per ounce.

21:31 USD/JPY stays steady as Fed holds rates, turns mildly hawkish
The USD/JPY remained unfazed during the North American session after the US Federal Reserve (Fed) maintained the fed funds rate at the 4.25%—4.50% range while shifting slightly hawkish after acknowledging there's no inflation improvement.

21:17 Gold price waver as Fed delivers hawkish hold
Gold prices slumped as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered a hawkish hold.

21:10 AUD/USD declines as Fed’s hawkish stance weighs on Aussie
The AUD/USD pair extended its decline on Wednesday, falling to 0.6220 following the Federal Reserve’s policy decision.

Federal Reserve leaves rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% as expected.Fed statement removes prior language on inflation progress, signaling a cautious approach.AUD/USD drops to 0.6220 as the US Dollar strengthens post-Fed decision.The AUD/USD pair extended its decline on Wednesday, falling to 0.6220 following the Federal Reserve’s policy decision. As widely anticipated, the Fed left interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, but the statement carried a hawkish tone. Notably, policymakers removed prior language indicating that inflation had made progress toward the 2% target, signaling a more cautious outlook on future rate cuts. The US Dollar strengthened immediately after the announcement, pressuring the Aussie lower. All eyes are now on Jerome Powell's presser. Technical overview The AUD/USD remains under selling pressure, with the pair struggling to regain momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers in negative territory, reflecting bearish sentiment. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram prints rising green bars, suggesting some divergence. Key support lies at 0.6200, with a break below exposing 0.6170. On the upside, resistance is seen at 0.6230 (20-day Simple Moving Average). AUD/USD daily chart

21:09 GBP/USD churns after Fed holds rates steady, more volatility in the barrel
GBP/USD knocked into some fresh volatility, testing down in intraday chart action and testing below 1.2435 in response to the Federal Reserve's (Fed) recent decision to maintain the interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%.

21:04 EUR/USD jitters post-Fed, pre-Powell
EUR/USD sees some volatility, but more impact is still in the pipe.

21:00 United States Fed Interest Rate Decision in line with expectations (4.5%)
United States Fed Interest Rate Decision in line with expectations (4.5%)

20:32 US Dollar firms as markets brace for Fed decision
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against a basket of currencies, extends its recovery above 108.00 as investors await the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision.

19:57 Dow Jones Industrial Average flattens ahead of Fed
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is treading water on Wednesday, awaiting Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell and the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) latest rate call, which is already widely expected to be no moves on rate cuts.

19:31 Mexican Peso treads water ahead of Fed’s decision
The Mexican Peso (MXN) remains subdued against the US Dollar (USD) during the North American session as investors wait for the United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decision.

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Consequently, price action is constrained, as seen by USD/MXN trading at 20.55, up by a minimal 0.06% and virtually unchanged. Data from Mexico revealed that the December Unemployment Rate dipped, indicating the labor market's strength. Recently, Banco de Mexico (Banxico) Deputy Governor Omar Mejia Castelazo said on Banorte’s podcast that Banxico has enough margin to carry out a “process of calibration” at upcoming monetary policy meetings. He hinted that the central bank will likely continue to ease policy. When asked about challenges from Trump’s trade policies in the US, Mejia added that Mexico had “solid macro-economic fundamentals.” Despite this, the Mexican currency has been pressured during the week, depreciating over 1.89% on Monday against the Greenback due to President Trump’s trade policy threats to Colombia. At the same time, the White House reiterated that 25% tariffs to Mexico would be applied on February 1, according to Karoline Leavitt, the Press Secretary. Regarding this, David A. Meier, an economist at Julius Baer, said: “Our view is that these threats are intended to put pressure on Mexico and Canada on drug and immigration issues, as well as to reopen the USMCA negotiations before 2026.” Meier warned of the potential economic consequences if the threats materialize. He added that Mexican exports would reduce and remittances would take a hit, which opens the door for further depreciation of the Mexican Peso. In addition, Mexico’s economic docket will feature the release of preliminary Q4 2024 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures. Daily digest market movers: Mexican Peso hovers near 20.50 after jobs report The Institutio Nacional de Estadistica Geografia e Informatica (INEGI) revealed that Mexico's Unemployment Rate in December was 2.4%, down from 2.6% in November. Seasonally adjusted figures were 2.6%. According to Reuters, Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum said she “doesn't believe the United States will impose tariffs on Feb. 1.” A Reuters poll revealed that private economists estimate Mexico’s GDP to contract -0.2% QoQ from an expansion of 1.1% in Q4. On an annual basis, GDP is foreseen to edge lower from 1.6% to 1.2%. Citi revealed its Expectations Survey, in which Mexican private economists revised GDP figures for 2025 downward to 1%. In headline figures, inflation is foreseen at 3.91%, and core prices are projected at 3.68%. Both figures are within Banxico’s 3% plus or minus 1%. The USD/MXN exchange rate would likely end in 2025 at around 20.95. Banxico is expected to lower rates by 25 basis points (bps) from 10.00% to 9.75%, though some analysts expect a 50-bps cut at the February 6 meeting. Money market futures have priced in 50 bps of Fed rate cuts in 2025, according to CME FedWatch Tool data. USD/MXN technical outlook: Mexican Peso surges as USD/MXN drops to 20.50 The USD/MXN consolidates near the 20.50 figure for the second straight day, with traders reluctant to push prices above the year-to-date (YTD) high of 20.90. Since November, the exotic pair has remained within the 20.20 – 20.90 range, capped on the downside by the 50 and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), each at 20.38 and 20.07. For a bullish continuation, buyers must clear the YTD peak and the 21.00 figure, which could open the door to test the March 8, 2022, daily high of 21.46, followed by the 22.00 psychological level. On the other hand, if sellers push prices below the 100-day SMA, the next support would be 20.00, followed by the October 18, 2024 swing low of 19.64.Mexican Peso FAQs What key factors drive the Mexican Peso? The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity. How do decisions of the Banxico impact the Mexican Peso? The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. How does economic data influence the value of the Mexican Peso? Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Mexican Peso? As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

19:13 Canadian Dollar recedes after BoC cuts rates and ends QT
The Canadian Dollar shed one-quarter of one percent against the Greenback on Wednesday, falling back after the Bank of Canada (BoC) slashed another 25 bps from interest rates, bringing the BoC’s main reference rate down to 3.0%.

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The Canadian interest rate peaked at 5% in July of 2023, and the BoC’s latest rate cut follows two back-to-back jumbo cuts of 50 bps in October and December of last year. The Bank of Canada also announced the end of its quantitative tightening program, and is expected to restart asset purchases in early March. However, BoC Governor Tiff Macklem pulled back from the brink, saying that the BoC isn’t expecting to full-on restart quantitative easing programs immediately. The looming threat of widespread trade tariffs from US President Donald Trump is definitely weighing on the BoC, and rate swap markets are pricing in nearly-even odds that the Canadian central bank will deliver another 25 bps rate cut in March. Daily digest market movers: Canadian Dollar sheds weight after BoC rate cut Despite getting knocked back post-BoC rate cut, the Canadian Dollar is still treading water within its recent range, keeping USD/CAD hobbled near the 1.4400 handle. With the CAD’s interest rate differential against the US Dollar set to widen further heading into Q2, Loonie bulls have limited room to run. Tariffs are the looming threat to the BoC’s policy stance in 2025. BoC policymakers have brushed off the Loonie sitting at multi-year lows against the USD for the time being, but continued declines may spark policy adjustments moving forward. The BoC also snuck in a slight upside revision to inflation forecasts, now see annualized inflation metrics to hold slightly above the 2.0% target through 2026.BoC Governor Macklem: Tariffs threat weighed on the bank's decisionCanadian Dollar price forecast The Canadian Dollar has shed some weight against the US Dollar for three consecutive trading days, falling back around four-tenths of one percent through the first half of the trading week and bolstering USD/CAD back above the 1.4400 handle. The pair has been in a rough sideways grind for over six weeks after the Loonie fell to multi-year lows against the Greenback and USD/CAD tapped 1.4500 for the first time since the pandemic.USD/CAD price action remains hobbled in a choppy flat channel between 1.4300 and 1.4500, with bids continuing to swirl around 1.4400 in back-and-forth chart momentum. The pair is overall poised for a topside break into chart paper above 1.4500, but a pullback below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) rising into 1.4270 could see an extended bearish slide. USD/CAD daily chartCanadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

18:00 Russia Producer Price Index (MoM) down to 0.4% in November from previous 1%
Russia Producer Price Index (MoM) down to 0.4% in November from previous 1%

18:00 Russia Producer Price Index (YoY): 7.9% (November) vs 3.9%
Russia Producer Price Index (YoY): 7.9% (November) vs 3.9%

17:46 AUD/USD slides as weak inflation data fuels RBA rate cut bets
The AUD/USD dropped by 0.57% to 0.6225 on Wednesday, struggling near weekly lows below 0.6250.

Australian inflation missed expectations, reinforcing RBA rate cut speculation.US-China trade tensions keep pressure on the Aussie.Markets await the Fed’s decision for further direction. The AUD/USD dropped by 0.57% to 0.6225 on Wednesday, struggling near weekly lows below 0.6250. Softer-than-expected inflation data from Australia strengthened expectations of a February rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), putting additional pressure on the Aussie. Weak economic signals from China and escalating US-Sino trade tensions further dampened sentiment, while investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s policy decision later in the day.Market sentiment remains cautious as investors await the Federal Reserve's (Fed) highly anticipated monetary policy decision. While the central bank is widely expected to keep interest rates steady, market participants are keen to gauge its stance on future rate cuts. Any hawkish tilt from the Fed, emphasizing persistent inflation risks or delaying policy easing, could drive further strength in the US Dollar, pressuring the AUD/USD lower. At the same time, Australia’s inflation figures came in below expectations, adding to speculation that the RBA will ease monetary policy in its upcoming meeting. The latest data showed that quarterly inflation rose by just 0.2%, missing the projected 0.3%. On an annual basis, inflation slowed to 2.4%, down from 2.8% in the previous quarter and below the expected 2.5%. While December’s Monthly CPI increased by 2.5%, as forecasted, it remained within the RBA’s 2%-3% target range.
Adding to the Aussie’s challenges, concerns over potential US tariffs on Chinese goods continue to mount. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt reiterated that President Donald Trump is still considering imposing 10% tariffs on China, with a decision expected in February. Technical overview The AUD/USD remains under pressure, trading within a tight range as it struggles to recover. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 43, sharply declining in negative territory, indicating sustained bearish momentum. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram prints green bars but declinig, signaling some bullish presence.
Despite recent losses, technical indicators suggest mixed signals. The MACD hints at potential upside, while the RSI remains bearish. If the pair fails to reclaim the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.6230, selling pressure could intensify. Immediate support is seen at 0.6200, with a break lower exposing 0.6170. Resistance remains at 0.6250, followed by 0.6300. AUD/USD daily chart

17:30 United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change registered at 3.463M, below expectations (3.7M) in January 24
United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change registered at 3.463M, below expectations (3.7M) in January 24

17:08 USD/CAD reaches six-day high as BoC cut rates
The USD/CAD hit a six-day high of 1.4470 after the Bank of Canada (BoC) cut rates by 25 basis points from 3.25% to 3%, as economists widely expected.

16:45 GBP/USD weakens further as markets brace for Fed decision
The Pound Sterling extended its losses on Wednesday as the Greenback remains firm ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision.

16:45 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision in line with expectations (3%)
Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision in line with expectations (3%)

16:37 USD/JPY ticks lower despite US Dollar performs strongly ahead of Fed policy decision
The USD/JPY pair edges lower to near 155.40 in Wednesday’s North American session.

15:49 US Dollar outperforms its peers ahead of Fed’s policy decision
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, rises to near Friday’s high of 108.20 in Wednesday’s North American session.

15:30 United States Goods Trade Balance came in at $-122.1B, below expectations ($-105.7B) in December
United States Goods Trade Balance came in at $-122.1B, below expectations ($-105.7B) in December

15:30 United States Wholesale Inventories came in at -0.5% below forecasts (0.1%) in December
United States Wholesale Inventories came in at -0.5% below forecasts (0.1%) in December

15:15 GBP/USD eases in line with peers – Scotiabank
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is edging marginally lower, in line with its European peers, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is edging marginally lower, in line with its European peers, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. Chancellor talks up growth policies"There was little reaction to comments from Chancellor Reeves outlining measures aimed at boosting UK growth—trade talks, looser planning and development rules— perhaps because there was little new in the comments and these measures will take time to have an impact. The chancellor threw her support behind the expansion of Heathrow airport to signal that the government is serious about removing obstacles to development." "Spot losses are holding in the low 1.24 zone but weakness below the base of a minor bull channel on the short-term chart suggests downside risks remain for the pound. A move below 1.24 targets losses to the low/mid 1.23s in the short run."

15:13 EUR/USD: Outperforming stocks may provide some backing – Scotiabank
The Euro (EUR) is moderately lower again as the USD firms broadly, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

The Euro (EUR) is moderately lower again as the USD firms broadly, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. EUR/USD drifts back to 1.04"There are some positives around the fringes of the EUR’s outlook, however. Spain notched up another solid year of growth, rising 3.5% in the Q4 year—better than many. Meanwhile, this week’s volatility in global stocks may give investors a timely nudge that Eurozone stocks are outperforming US markets so far this year." "The Stoxx 50 index is up 7% YTD. Relatively better returns in Europe may provide a little support for EUR sentiment if the trend extends.""Soft price action yesterday—spot losses completed the third leg of an 'evening star' candle pattern on the daily chart—adds to the weaker technical tone of the EUR. Spot losses are losing a little momentum in the low 1.04 area at present, with the 40-day MA (1.0403) providing some anchoring for the market. Loss of support around the figure targets a drop to 1.0350. Resistance is 1.0535."

15:09 CAD trades softer into BoC policy decision – Scotiabank
Broader US Dollar (USD) strength explains the modest drop in the Canadian Dollar (CAD) on the session so far. The BoC policy decision today is expected to result in a 25bps rate cut which is already largely factored in.

Broader US Dollar (USD) strength explains the modest drop in the Canadian Dollar (CAD) on the session so far. The BoC policy decision today is expected to result in a 25bps rate cut which is already largely factored in. Swaps have been effectively discounting a January ease for some time, with the strength of some recent data releases (jobs, retail) only marginally affecting pricing, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. USD/CAD holds established range"OIS pricing reflects 95% chance of a 1/4-point cut today, taking the target rate to 3.00%. The policy decision and MPR are released at 9.45ET, with Governor Macklem and Senior DG Rogers speaking to reporters at 10.30ET. The Bank will provide more detail on its analysis of the impact of tariffs on the domestic economy today and, given the uncertainty around the outlook, it may signal that the pace of easing will slow in the coming months." "Significant tariffs applied broadly to Canadian exports would prompt a severe slowing in domestic growth. US tariffs and retaliation on US goods coming into Canada would slow growth and boost inflation, tilting risks towards rate hikes. On the tariff front, today’s meeting between Foreign Affairs Minister Joly and US Secretary of State Rubio may give some sense of the near-term tariff risks facing Canada." "The USD is nudging higher again but remains well within the broader range that has prevailed since mid-December. USD/CAD support in the low/mid 1.43 zone remains firm (40-day MA rising to 1.4339 today) but, absent new, bullish impulses, USD gains should remain contained to the 1.4475 zone. Key support is 1.4255/60. Key resistance is 1.4515/20."

15:06 USD grinds higher ahead of FOMC – Scotiabank
The US Dollar (USD) is advancing again ahead of the Fed policy decision this afternoon, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

The US Dollar (USD) is advancing again ahead of the Fed policy decision this afternoon, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. USD firms ahead of FOMC"Gains are relatively limited versus the core majors and the JPY and MXN are just about managing to resist the rise. Finance Minister Kato spoke with US Treasury Secretary Bessent earlier and said they will continue to discuss FX closely. The AUD is underperforming after Q4 CPI data came in a little lower than forecast, lifting expectations that the RBA will—finally —join the global central bank easing trend in February. Limited movement overnight may reflect thinner trading in Asia in particular due to the start of the Lunar New Year celebrations." "The FOMC is expected to leave policy on hold today. Policymakers have signaled that the pace of easing may slow amid resilient growth trends and the lack of additional progress on inflation since the middle of last year. Uncertainty about the impact of President Trump’s policy initiatives will add to the desire to hold off on additional easing for now. Policymakers may be concerned that tariffs could reignite inflation pressures a little more easily amid still stubborn price pressures." "Fed Chair Powell will likely try and steer a relatively neutral–sounding course on the near-term outlook for policy at least but a steady Fed contrasts with the outlook for lower rates in many other jurisdictions and provides the motivation for a somewhat firmer USD. Meanwhile, the White House reiterated February 1 tariff threats for Canada and Mexico at yesterday’s press briefing. Given that one of President Trump’s first moves was to order a thorough review of US trade and economic policies which is due April 1, some time shortly after the latter date may be a more realistic point for tariff action to emerge."

14:07 Gold caught in range trade ahead of Fed interest rate decision
Gold’s price (XAU/USD) trades roughly flat and stabilizes around $2,760 at the time of writing on Wednesday after a whipsaw start to the week.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Gold stabilizes on Wednesday after a near 1% recovery the previous day. All eyes are on the Federal Reserve interest rate decision later in the day. Gold is better positioned to eke out a fresh all-time high still. Gold’s price (XAU/USD) trades roughly flat and stabilizes around $2,760 at the time of writing on Wednesday after a whipsaw start to the week. No big moves are expected, as several traders sit on their hands until the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision later in the day. Lower US rates are often seen as beneficial for Gold to trade higher. Market expectations show the Fed will likely keep interest rates unchanged in the range of 4.25%-4.50%, so traders will rather focus on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments on the central bank’s policy outlook. And here, traders might be in for a huge disappointment. Powell is not expected to comment on President Donald Trump's criticism of the Fed or why or how Trump calls for lower rates. Instead, Powell is expected to repeat that the central bank remains independent and data-dependent and will focus on its dual mandate: inflation and the jobs market. Daily digest market movers: Ready for a fresh all-time highAccording to Bloomberg, the market expectation is for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to deliver a dovish pause. This should see US yields tilt lower, which opens the opportunity for Gold to surge higher and print a possible fresh all-time high. Australian hedge funds are clamouring for Gold exposure during the second term of US President Donald Trump. They are betting that his administration will fail to arrest the US economy’s spiralling debt and that Gold will act as an antidote to the bond market’s carnage, Financial Review reports. At 19:00 GMT, the Fed will deliver its monetary policy decision, followed by a press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at 19:30 GMT.Technical Analysis: Softening stance sets up Gold for all-time highGold’s price has positioned itself at a perfect point for reaching a fresh all-time high should the Fed be rather dovish on Wednesday. The decline earlier this week has nearly recovered, and Gold is trading roughly flat for now. Expect volatility to pick up, with a possible fresh all-time high on the back of comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who is expected to deliver a dovish rate pause. The first line of support remains at $2,721, a sort of double top in November and December broken on January 21. Just below that, $2,709 (October 23, 2024, low) is in focus as a second nearby support. In case both abovementioned levels snap, look for a dive back to $2,680 with a full-swing sell-off. Although the window of opportunity is starting to close, Gold could still hit the all-time high of $2,790, which is around 1% away from current levels. Once above that, a fresh all-time high will present itself. Meanwhile, some analysts and strategists have penciled in calls for $3,000, but $2,800 looks to be a good starting point as the next resistance on the upside. XAU/USD: Daily Chart Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

14:00 Mexico Jobless Rate s.a declined to 2.6% in December from previous 2.7%
Mexico Jobless Rate s.a declined to 2.6% in December from previous 2.7%

14:00 Mexico Jobless Rate came in at 2.4%, below expectations (2.6%) in December
Mexico Jobless Rate came in at 2.4%, below expectations (2.6%) in December

14:00 United States MBA Mortgage Applications fell from previous 0.1% to -2% in January 24
United States MBA Mortgage Applications fell from previous 0.1% to -2% in January 24

13:31 AUD/USD slumps to near 0.6220 on soft Aussie CPI, Fed policy in focus
The AUD/USD pair falls sharply to near 0.6220 in Wednesday’s European session.

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The Aussie pair faces sharp selling pressure as the Australian Dollar (AUD) weakens across the board after the release of the softer-than-projected Australian Q4 Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which fuelled bets supporting the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to start reducing interest rates from the policy meeting in February. Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.25% 0.16% -0.08% 0.17% 0.42% 0.35% 0.20% EUR -0.25% -0.09% -0.32% -0.09% 0.17% 0.12% -0.05% GBP -0.16% 0.09% -0.25% 0.00% 0.26% 0.20% 0.04% JPY 0.08% 0.32% 0.25% 0.24% 0.50% 0.42% 0.28% CAD -0.17% 0.09% -0.01% -0.24% 0.25% 0.19% 0.04% AUD -0.42% -0.17% -0.26% -0.50% -0.25% -0.06% -0.22% NZD -0.35% -0.12% -0.20% -0.42% -0.19% 0.06% -0.16% CHF -0.20% 0.05% -0.04% -0.28% -0.04% 0.22% 0.16% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that inflationary pressures rose at a steady pace of 0.2% in the last quarter of 2024 on a sequential basis, slower than estimates of 0.3%. Compared to the same quarter of the previous year, inflation rose at a slower pace of 2.4% than expectations of 2.5% and 2.8% growth in the third quarter of 2024. However, the Monthly CPI grew at a faster pace of 2.5% in December, as expected, compared to a 2.3% increase in November, but is broadly inside the RBA’s range of 2%-3%. Soft Australian inflation data have boosted market expectations that the RBA will pivot to policy easing at its next policy meeting. Meanwhile, deepening fears that United States (US) President Donald Trump will impose 10% tariffs on China has also kept the Aussie Dollar on the backfoot, being Australia a leading trading partner of China. On Tuesday, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt reported that the President is “very much still considering 10% tariffs on China” from February 1. On the US Dollar (USD) front, investors await the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision, which will be announced at 19:00 GMT. The Fed is widely anticipated to keep interest rates steady in the range of 4.25%-4.50%. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

13:00 Federal Reserve set to keep interest rate unchanged, focus on data and Trump’s policies
The United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce monetary policy decisions following the first policy meeting of the year on Wednesday.

.fxs-related-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-related-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{text-decoration:none;color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover a{color:#e4871b}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover{text-decoration:none}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-related-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave monetary policy settings unchanged following the January meeting.Fed Chairman Powell’s presser could provide important clues about the rate outlook.The US Dollar could come under bearish pressure if the Fed leaves a rate cut in March on the table. The United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce monetary policy decisions following the first policy meeting of the year on Wednesday. Market participants widely anticipate that the US central bank will leave monetary policy settings unchanged after cutting the interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.25%-4.5% in December. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that investors virtually see no chance of a rate cut in January, while pricing in a 33% probability of a 25 bps reduction in March. Hence, the statement language and comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell could drive the US Dollar’s (USD) valuation, rather than the interest rate announcement. “The FOMC is widely expected to maintain its policy stance unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% next week, with Chair Powell expected to communicate what's likely to be a cautious process for policymaking in the near horizon, while still espousing an easing bias,” said TD Securities analysts previewing the Fed event. “In our view, decisions by Fed officials, while still highly data-dependent, are increasingly turning more Trump-dependent,” added. Related newsMore tension around tariff headlines [Video]Fed meeting to be 'overlooked' by markets amid Trump tariff and tax uncertainty Five fundamentals for the week: Fed, ECB and US GDP try to compete with TrumpWhen will the Fed announce its interest rate decision and how could it affect EUR/USD? The US Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision and publish the monetary policy statement on Wednesday at 19:00 GMT. This will be followed by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference starting at 19:30 GMT. The revised Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), also known as the dot plot, published after the December policy meeting showed that policymakers are projecting two 25 bps rate cuts in 2025. In the press conference, Chairman Powell explained strong economic growth, low unemployment and expectations for higher inflation were primary reasons for projecting a slower policy-easing path. The most likely scenario for the Fed is to reiterate its data-dependent approach to policy and for officials to wait for US President Donald Trump’s trade and other economic policies to take shape. “We expect significant policy changes, we need to see what they are and the effects to get a clearer picture,” Powell said at the presser in December. In case Powell adopts an optimistic tone about the inflation outlook after Trump refrained from imposing day-one tariffs and voiced his willingness to work with China on trade issues, markets could see that as a sign pointing to a rate cut in March and weigh on the USD with the immediate reaction. On the other hand, investors could adopt a cautious stance if Powell talks about the potential undesired effects of proposed 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, two of the biggest US exporters, on inflation. In this scenario, the USD could gather strength against its rivals. Eren Sengezer, European Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, provides a short-term technical outlook for EUR/USD: “EUR/USD remains technically bullish on the daily chart, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator rising above 60 for the first time since late September. Additionally, the pair holds comfortably above the 50-day and the 20-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA).”
“On the upside, the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level of the October-January downtrend aligns as the first resistance level at 1.0580 ahead of 1.0670-1.0700 (Fibonacci 50% retracement, 100-day SMA). In case the pair drops below 1.0440 (50-day SMA, Fibonacci 23.6% retracement) and starts using this level as resistance, technical sellers could take action and open the door for an extended slide toward 1.0350 (20-day SMA) and 1.0200 (end-point of the downtrend). Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.

12:41 Germany 10-y Bond Auction increased to 2.54% from previous 2.16%
Germany 10-y Bond Auction increased to 2.54% from previous 2.16%

12:34 EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Faces selling pressure amid caution ahead of ECB policy meeting
The EUR/JPY pair slumps to near two-day low of 161.60 in Wednesday’s European session.

12:20 USD/JPY is directionless above 155.00 – BBH
The minutes of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) December meeting are outdated following last week’s 25bps policy rate hike to 0.50%, BBH FX strategists report.

The minutes of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) December meeting are outdated following last week’s 25bps policy rate hike to 0.50%, BBH FX strategists report.BOJ policy rate to peak around 1.00%“In December, the BOJ left the policy rate unchanged at 0.25% and the minutes showed the board discussed how high to raise the policy rate in the future. One member cautioned the BOJ ‘would need to slow the pace of policy interest rate hikes’ once the policy interest rate approached the neutral interest rate.”“BOJ staff estimates the nominal neutral rate to be in a range of 1.00% to 2.50%. Markets continues to imply the BOJ policy rate to peak around 1.00% over the next two years. This seems about right as the BOJ expects inflation to stabilize around its 2% target in 2026. Bottom line: the BOJ shallow policy normalization cycle is an ongoing headwind for JPY.”

12:19 UK's Reeves: We begun to turn things around
UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves said on Wednesday, “we begun to turn things around.” Key takeaways UK regulation has been stifling and unpredictable.

UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves said on Wednesday, “we begun to turn things around.” Key takeaways UK regulation has been stifling and unpredictable. The solution is government systematically removing barriers. Looking forward to work with the new US Treasury Secretary and deepen relationships. We need to remove constraints on the UK economy's supply side.

12:17 NZD/USD is range-bound around 0.5670 – BBH
RBNZ Chief Economist Conway stuck to bank’s dovish guidance, BBH FX strategists report.

RBNZ Chief Economist Conway stuck to bank’s dovish guidance, BBH FX strategists report.RBNZ/Fed policy trend remains drag for NZD/USD“Conway noted that ‘easing domestic pricing intentions and the recent drop in inflation expectations help open the way for some further easing”, adding he anticipates “interest rates to ultimately settle around neutral’.”“The RBNZ estimates the long-term nominal neutral interest rate to lie between 2.5% and 3.5%. In line with RBNZ guidance, markets continue to imply another 50bps rate cut to 3.75% in February and the policy rate to bottom at 3.00% over the next 12 months. RBNZ/Fed policy trend remains drag for NZD/USD.”

12:15 AUD/USD is underperforming at the moment – BBH
Australia’s Q4 CPI was soft and all but locks-in an RBA rate cut at the next meeting February 18, BBH FX strategists report.

Australia’s Q4 CPI was soft and all but locks-in an RBA rate cut at the next meeting February 18, BBH FX strategists report.Sluggish Chinese economic activity to weigh on AUD/USD“Headline CPI matched consensus at 2.5% y/y vs. 2.8% in Q3, reflecting large falls in electricity (-25.2%) and Automotive fuel (-7.9%). The more policy-relevant trimmed mean CPI inflation undershot expectations eased to a three-year low at 3.2% y/y (consensus: 3.3%, RBA projection: 3.4%) vs. 3.6% in Q3.”“Markets moved to virtually fully price-in (vs. 80% yesterday) a 25bps RBA cut to 4.10% in February and a total of 85bps of easing over the next 12 months. RBA/Fed policy trend and sluggish Chinese economic activity can further weigh on AUD/USD.”

12:13 CAD: BOC expected to slash the policy rate 25bps to 3.00% – BBH
USD/CAD is trading in a tight range around 1.4400, BBH FX strategists report.

USD/CAD is trading in a tight range around 1.4400, BBH FX strategists report.USD/CAD has scope to overshoot to fresh cyclical highs“The Bank of Canada (BOC) is expected to slash the policy rate 25bps to 3.00% following two consecutive 50bps rate reductions. The BOC’s updated Monetary Policy Report is also due today. Inflation is stabilizing around 2% and business sentiment remains subdued but has improved.”“BOC Governor Tiff Macklem effectively ruled-out additional jumbo cuts, pointing out that officials will consider further rate cuts but likely at a slower pace. Markets are price-in almost 75bps of total BOC easing over next 12 months that should see the policy rate bottom near 2.50%.”“USD/CAD has scope to overshoot to fresh cyclical highs supported by FED/BOC policy trend, risk of all-out trade war between Canada and the US, and the Trump administration’s focus to lower energy prices.”

12:02 Italy Trade Balance non-EU up to €7.79B in December from previous €5.908B
Italy Trade Balance non-EU up to €7.79B in December from previous €5.908B

12:01 Belgium Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) meets expectations (0.2%) in 4Q
Belgium Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) meets expectations (0.2%) in 4Q

11:54 USD: Powell to emphasize caution again – BBH
US Dollar (USD) is firm ahead of the FOMC’s decision. The target range for the Fed funds rate is widely expected to be left unchanged at 4.25-4.50%, BBH FX strategists report.

US Dollar (USD) is firm ahead of the FOMC’s decision. The target range for the Fed funds rate is widely expected to be left unchanged at 4.25-4.50%, BBH FX strategists report.Policy divergence continue to underpin USD strength“The risk is the FOMC’s decision is not unanimous after Fed Governor Christopher Waller went full dove ahead of the media blackout. According to Waller ‘3 or 4 rate cuts is possible in 2025 if the data cooperates.’ In contrast, Fed funds futures and the FOMC median projection imply 2 rate cuts in 2025.”“There is no Summary of Economic Projection. The next one is published in March. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jay Powell’s post meeting press conference will be highly anticipated following US President Donald Trump’s jab at the Fed. Trump said that ‘with oil prices going down, I'll demand that interest rates drop immediately’. When asked if he believed Fed officials would listen to him, Trump responded, ‘Yeah.’ We expect Powell to emphasize again that the FOMC can be more cautious as we consider further adjustments to our policy rate.”“Indeed, the bar for additional Fed funds rate cuts is high as US inflation is stalling above 2% and economic activity remains solid. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimates above trend Q4 growth at 3.2% SAAR up from 3.0% on January 17. The final GDPNow update is due later today. Bottom line: monetary policy divergence between the Fed and other major central banks continue to underpin USD strength.”

11:51 EUR/USD is under pressure as Fed interest rate decision looms large
EUR/USD trades with caution near 1.0420 in Wednesday’s European session, with investors focusing on the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy announcement at 19:00 GMT.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD wobbles near 1.0420 as investors await the Fed’s policy outcome.The Fed is expected to keep interest rates steady with a slightly hawkish outlook.Trump’s tariffs plans and dovish ECB bets are expected to keep the Euro on the back foot.EUR/USD trades with caution near 1.0420 in Wednesday’s European session, with investors focusing on the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy announcement at 19:00 GMT. The Fed is widely anticipated to keep interest rates steady in the range of 4.25%-4.50% as officials are worried that the disinflation trend toward the central bank’s target of 2% has stalled and the labor market has stabilized. As markets have fully priced in that the Fed will keep rates unchanged, investors will pay close attention to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference after the policy decision. Investors would be keen to know for how long the Fed will keep interest rates at current levels, given the stubborn inflation outlook on the assumption that the imposition of hefty tariffs by United States (US) President Donald Trump will increase prices of goods and services. Trump’s push for higher tariffs on its trading partners has escalated global growth concerns. President Trump has recommended tariffs on pharmaceuticals, steel and sophisticated chips to boost domestic production. Meanwhile, 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and 10% on China are very much on the cards, as White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt indicated on Tuesday. Leavitt said that 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico from February 1 are “still on the books”. Leavitt added that the President is “very much still considering 10% tariffs on China” from Saturday. Ahead of the Fed’s policy decision, the US Dollar (USD) trades subduedly, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) wobbling around 107.90. The US Dollar has performed strongly in the past few months on the assumption that Trump’s tariffs would accelerate price pressures and force the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged for longer. Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD skates on thin ice as ECB looks set to cut rates on Thursday Another reason behind the cautious performance of the EUR/USD pair is the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy meeting, scheduled for Thursday. Traders have fully priced in a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut, pushing the Deposit Rate lower to 2.75%. Market participants are also confident that the ECB will continue reducing its key borrowing rates in all meetings by the summer. Such a scenario would be unfavorable for the Euro’s (EUR) short and long-term outlook. ECB dovish bets have accelerated amid fears that Trump’s tariffs will weaken the already faltered Eurozone economy. Germany, the powerhouse of the shared bloc, is forecasted to contract this year, the Federal of German Industries (BDI) said on Tuesday. The agency expects that the German economy will shrink for the third year in a row as the government has been unable to address structural weakness in the national economy. "The situation is very serious: Growth in industry in particular has suffered a structural break," BDI President Peter Leibinger said. Investors will keenly focus on ECB President Christine Lagarde’s press conference on how the old continent will deal with Trump’s tariffs. Last week at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Lagarde warned that Europe must “anticipate what will happen” and be “prepared in order to respond,” as Trump’s tariffs would be “selective” and “focused.” Analysts at ING said, “The tariff threat may be perceived more seriously given the Treasury’s active planning, and that materially shrinks the upside potential for the euro.” On Monday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent proposed imposing a 2.5% tariff universally and also guided to raise them at a similar pace every month. Technical Analysis: EUR/USD faces pressure near 50-day EMAEUR/USD continues to struggle around the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 1.0455, on Wednesday. The major currency pair corrects to near 1.0410 after failing to extend its upside move above the key resistance of 1.0530. The near-term outlook remains firm as the pair holds the 20-day EMA, which trades around 1.0395. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) failed to climb above the 60.00 hurdle after recovering from below the 40.00 level, suggesting that the trend would be sideways. Looking down, the downward-sloping trendline from the September 30, 2024, high of 1.1209 will act as major support for the pair near the round level of 1.0300, followed by the January 20 low of 1.0266. Conversely, the December 6 high of 1.0630 will be the key barrier for the Euro bulls. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

11:46 Copper: Tariff threats keep the metals markets on edge – ING
Copper dropped below $8,000/t in yesterday’s trading session after US President Donald Trump’s latest in a series of tariff threats, ING’s commodity analysts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

Copper dropped below $8,000/t in yesterday’s trading session after US President Donald Trump’s latest in a series of tariff threats, ING’s commodity analysts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.Metals markets are turning nervous about the prospect of tariffs“Trump said on Monday that he plans to impose tariffs on Copper, Aluminum and steel, as well as computer chips and pharmaceuticals, to boost domestic production. Trump also said on Monday evening that he wants to impose across-the-board tariffs that are “much bigger” than 2.5%. When asked about a report that incoming Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent favored starting with a global rate of 2.5%, Trump said he didn’t think Bessent supported that and wouldn’t favor it himself. He added he wanted a rate ‘much bigger’ than 2.5%.”“Metals markets are turning increasingly nervous about the prospect of tariffs. According to the US Geological Survey (USGS), the US has a net import reliance of 13%, 44% and 46% for iron & steel, Aluminum and Copper, respectively. A prolonged trade conflict would slow global growth and hurt demand. Tariffs are a major headwind to metals, whether in force yet or not.”“The latest LME COTR report shows that speculators increased their net long position in Aluminum by 5,269 lots for a second consecutive week to 117,876 lots for the week ending 24 January, the highest since the week ending on 15 November 2024. Similarly, net bullish bets for Copper rose by 3,507 lots for a fourth consecutive week to 67,624 lots (the highest since the week ending 8 November 2024) at the end of last week. In contrast, money managers decreased net bullish bets for zinc by 651 lots to 28,853 lots as of last Friday.”

11:43 USD/CAD: Short-term price action can remain within a range – Societe Générale
USD/CAD has evolved within a brief pause after facing interim resistance near 1.4470/1.4515, Societe Générale’s FX analysts report.

USD/CAD has evolved within a brief pause after facing interim resistance near 1.4470/1.4515, Societe Générale’s FX analysts report.The up move can extend towards 1.4610 and 1.4670“It is at a steep ascending trend line; the 50-DMA near 1.4260 is a crucial support in short-term. Only if this is breached would there be risk of a deeper pullback.”“Short-term price action could remain within a range. A move beyond 1.4470/1.4515 is essential to confirm next leg of uptrend. If this break materializes, the up move could extend towards projection of 1.4610 and 1.4670.”

11:40 EU plans to ban Russian Aluminum imports – ING
The European Union is reportedly proposing a phased ban on imports of Russian Aluminum to the bloc, ING’s commodity analysts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

The European Union is reportedly proposing a phased ban on imports of Russian Aluminum to the bloc, ING’s commodity analysts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.EU sanctions are likely to spur LME prices“The proposal calls for an import quota for a year before the complete ban comes into effect. Although the EU continues to import Russian Aluminum, volumes have fallen over the past two years, with European buyers self-sanctioning since the invasion of Ukraine.”“The EU imported more than 320kt of unwrought Aluminum from Russia in the first 11 months of 2024, accounting for around 6% of total imports, according to Un Comtrade data, a relatively small fraction of the global Aluminum market.”“Meanwhile, Russia has steadily increased sales to Asian consumers over the last three years, particularly China. If enacted, EU sanctions are likely to spur LME prices. It is not a given that the EU will agree to the package. The proposal will require backing from all member states and may still change before being formally proposed to members, according to reports.”

11:37 AUD/USD: Currently a pullback is under way – Societe Générale
AUD/USD briefly challenged lows of 2022 near 0.6170/0.6130 but has quickly rebounded, Societe Générale’s FX analysts report.

AUD/USD briefly challenged lows of 2022 near 0.6170/0.6130 but has quickly rebounded, Societe Générale’s FX analysts report.Break above MA near 0.6310 can lead to a larger bounce“It has crossed above the upper limit of a steep down sloping channel. The rebound has so far remained contained near 50-DMA (now at 0.6310). Currently a pullback is under way, but it will be interesting to see if the pair can carve out a higher trough than 0.6130. Overcoming the MA near 0.6310 can lead to a larger bounce.”

11:33 Crude oil is trading steady – ING
Crude oil prices steadied yesterday after a sharp fall over the past few sessions as the US prepares to impose tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico and China from Saturday, ING’s commodity analysts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

Crude oil prices steadied yesterday after a sharp fall over the past few sessions as the US prepares to impose tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico and China from Saturday, ING’s commodity analysts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.Demand for Middle East crude remains strong“NYMEX WTI currently trades at US$73.6/bbl while ICE Brent trades at US$77.3/bbl. WTI’s discount to Brent has narrowed to an average of US$3.6/bbl this year so far compared to an average of US$4.4/bbl for the full year 2024 as higher tariffs could make the oil supplies relatively tight in the US market.”“The weekly inventory report from the American Petroleum Institute was a mixed bag. The API reported that the US crude oil inventory increased by 2.86m barrels over the last week although crude oil stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma fell by 144k barrels. For products, gasoline inventory was reported to have increased by 1.89m barrels while distillate inventory dropped by 3.75m barrels.”“Despite the recent weakness in the oil market, demand for Middle East crude appears to remain strong with the market expecting Saudi Arabia to raise official selling price by around US$2/bbl for Asian buyers for March deliveries. Saudi Arabia has raised the OSP by around US$0.6/bbl for Feb deliveries for Asian buyers.”

11:30 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data.

11:21 SEK: Riksbank to cut, but terminal rate close – ING
The Riksbank has already reduced rates by 150bp since last May, and these cuts are starting to show early signs of success, with high-frequency indicators and the housing market having rebounded quite markedly of late, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

The Riksbank has already reduced rates by 150bp since last May, and these cuts are starting to show early signs of success, with high-frequency indicators and the housing market having rebounded quite markedly of late, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes. EUR/SEK is long due a recovery in volatility"That said, hard data is lagging and still shows an elevated unemployment rate. When paired with core inflation at target and headline CPIF at 1.5%, the case for another 25bp cut to 2.25% today is strong.""For the moment, our view is that the Riksbank will stop easing at the 2.0% mark, and that today’s policy announcement will give away some hints that the easing cycle is nearing its end. That said, we expect the Riksbank to retain dovish flexibility based on the economic impact of US tariffs, and risks are markedly skewed to more cuts compared to our forecast.""The ultra-stable EUR/SEK is long due a recovery in volatility, and while today’s Riksbank announcement may not be the trigger for that as policymakers may just match market expectations, the mix of equity market risks and US protectionism points to upside potential for the pair. Crucially, we don’t think the Riksbank will necessarily show discontent with a weaker krona, as that can help Swedish exporters in a global trade slowdown."

11:20 USD/CAD rises above 1.4400 as traders adopt caution ahead of Fed decision
USD/CAD gains ground for the third consecutive day, trading around 1.4420 during the European hours on Wednesday.

11:17 CAD: BoC may lean on the dovish side – ING
The Bank of Canada (BoC) is widely expected to cut rates by 25bp today. That is also our call and markets are fully pricing it in.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) is widely expected to cut rates by 25bp today. That is also our call and markets are fully pricing it in. The focus will therefore be on forward-looking indications from Governor Tiff Macklem, and on that we think the risks are skewed to the dovish side, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes. USD/CAD has a chance to move above 1.45"The market is pricing in a total of 70bp by year-end but embedding a pause at the March meeting. Given the tangible risk of US tariffs on Canada, whether ad-hoc or part of universal protectionism, we think the BoC will err on the dovish side and fail to signal it is close to reaching the terminal rate.""This means there are mostly downside risks for CAD today. Importantly, any indications from the BoC that US tariff risk can feed into a more dovish stance would further increase CAD’s sensitivity to protectionism. That’s because markets will feel more flexible to price in BoC cuts in a tariff scenario. We continue to see risks above 1.45 in USD/CAD."

11:06 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD trades with positive bias around mid-$30.00s, weekly high
Silver (XAG/USD) attracts buying for the second straight day on Wednesday and trades near the top end of its weekly range, around mid-$30.00s during the first half of the European session, up over 0.40% for the day.

11:01 Eurozone M3 Money Supply (3m) climbed from previous 3.5% to 3.6% in December
Eurozone M3 Money Supply (3m) climbed from previous 3.5% to 3.6% in December

11:01 Italy Consumer Confidence above expectations (96) in January: Actual (98.2)
Italy Consumer Confidence above expectations (96) in January: Actual (98.2)

11:01 Austria Purchasing Manager Index: 45.7 (January) vs 43.3
Austria Purchasing Manager Index: 45.7 (January) vs 43.3

11:01 Eurozone M3 Money Supply (YoY) registered at 3.5%, below expectations (3.8%) in December
Eurozone M3 Money Supply (YoY) registered at 3.5%, below expectations (3.8%) in December

11:00 Eurozone Private Loans (YoY) above forecasts (1%) in December: Actual (1.1%)
Eurozone Private Loans (YoY) above forecasts (1%) in December: Actual (1.1%)

11:00 Italy Business Confidence came in at 86.8, above expectations (85.5) in January
Italy Business Confidence came in at 86.8, above expectations (85.5) in January

11:00 Switzerland ZEW Survey – Expectations rose from previous -20 to 17.7 in January
Switzerland ZEW Survey – Expectations rose from previous -20 to 17.7 in January

11:00 BoC expected to trim interest rate again as markets seek clues on uncertain economic outlook
The spotlight is on the Bank of Canada (BoC) this Wednesday, with widespread expectations that it will lower its policy rate for the sixth meeting in a row.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Bank of Canada (BoC) is expected to cut its policy rate by 25 bps.The Canadian Dollar remains on the defensive against the US Dollar.Headline inflation in Canada remains below the bank’s 2% target.The BoC will also release its Monetary Policy Report (MPR).The spotlight is on the Bank of Canada (BoC) this Wednesday, with widespread expectations that it will lower its policy rate for the sixth meeting in a row. This time, however, the buzz surrounds a potential 25-basis-point cut—a smaller move than in the previous couple of gatherings—which would bring the benchmark rate down to 3.00%. Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) has embarked on a consolidative phase since mid-December, looking to stabilise following yearly lows north of the 1.4500 level vs. the US Dollar (USD), and the sharp depreciation that kicked in along with the so-called “Trump trade” back in October. Canada’s inflation story adds an intriguing layer to the BoC’s rate decision. December marked the second consecutive pullback as the annual inflation rate, measured by the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI), dipped to 1.8%. Although the BoC’s core CPI edged up last month, it remains below the central bank’s goal. Further easing appears on the cards Despite the anticipated rate cut, the Bank of Canada is expected to maintain a bearish outlook. This sentiment comes against the backdrop of easing inflation, a softening labour market and GDP hovering close to the bank’s most recent forecasts. In the BoC’s Business Outlook Survey published on January 20, Canadian businesses are cautiously optimistic about the year ahead. They expect better demand and stronger sales, thanks in part to recent rate cuts. However, many are keeping a wary eye on potential fallout from upcoming United States (US) policies. According to the Minutes released on December 23, the BoC’s decision to cut rates by 50 basis points on December 11 was a tight call, with some members of the governing council leaning toward a smaller reduction. Discussions among council members revolved around whether a 50 or 25 basis point cut was the right move. Those advocating for a larger cut were particularly concerned about weaker growth projections and downside risks to inflation. However, they acknowledged that not all recent data fully supported such an aggressive move. Ultimately, the decision to opt for a 50 basis point cut was driven by a dimmer growth outlook than anticipated in October and the recognition that monetary policy no longer needed to remain firmly restrictive. The central bank lowered its key policy rate to 3.25% in response to slowing economic growth. Governor Tiff Macklem signaled that any future rate cuts would be more measured, marking a shift from earlier statements that emphasized the need for continuous easing to bolster the economy. Previewing the BoC’s interest rate decision, Assistant Chief Economist at Royal Bank of Canada Nathan Janzen noted: “The Bank of Canada is expected to cut interest rates at a more gradual 25 basis-point pace on Wednesday following 50 bps cuts in each of the two prior meetings—widening a gap with US policy rates as the Federal Reserve is widely expected to forego a January rate cut… The BoC clearly communicated in its December policy decision that with the interest rate no longer at obviously ‘restrictive’ levels, the pace of future rate cuts would likely be more gradual, and contingent on economic data… We continue to expect the BoC will ultimately need to cut the overnight rate to a slightly stimulative 2% this year.” When will the BoC release its monetary policy decision, and how could it affect USD/CAD? The Bank of Canada is set to announce its policy decision on Wednesday at 14:45 GMT, followed by a press conference from Governor Tiff Macklem at 15:30 GMT. While no major surprises are expected, market focus will likely be on the central bank’s tone, which could have a bigger influence on the Canadian Dollar (CAD) than the actual rate decision. Pablo Piovano, Senior Analyst at FXStreet, highlights that USD/CAD now appears sidelined in the upper end of the recent range, following a strong upward trajectory in place since October, with the pair reaching a 2025 peak at 1.4516 on January 21. Looking ahead, Pablo notes: "The next key target is the 2020 high at 1.4667, recorded on March 20." He also points out potential downside levels, saying: "Occasional bearish moves could push USD/CAD to test the 2025 bottom of 1.4260 (January 20), while provisional contention emerges at the 55-day and 100-day SMAs at 1.4226, and 1.3989, respectively. Bank of Canada FAQs What is the Bank of Canada and how does it influence the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC), based in Ottawa, is the institution that sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Canada. It does so at eight scheduled meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings that are held as required. The BoC primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at between 1-3%. Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Canadian Dollar (CAD) and vice versa. Other tools used include quantitative easing and tightening. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Canadian Dollar? In extreme situations, the Bank of Canada can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the BoC prints Canadian Dollars for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker CAD. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The Bank of Canada used the measure during the Great Financial Crisis of 2009-11 when credit froze after banks lost faith in each other’s ability to repay debts. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Canadian Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Bank of Canada purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the BoC stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Canadian Dollar. Interest rates FAQs What are interest rates? Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation. How do interest rates impact currencies? Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. How do interest rates influence the price of Gold? Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold. What is the Fed Funds rate? The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.

10:57 USD: Limited risk of an FOMC dovish tilt today – ING
Today’s FOMC meeting is not anticipated to be a big market-moving event. The Fed needs to see significant economic weakness and lower inflation to justify further rate cuts. For the moment, the job market and wages are gradually cooling, but not enough for resuming easing.

Today’s FOMC meeting is not anticipated to be a big market-moving event. The Fed needs to see significant economic weakness and lower inflation to justify further rate cuts. For the moment, the job market and wages are gradually cooling, but not enough for resuming easing. According to market pricing, the conditions for a cut won’t be in place until June, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes. USD is set to consolidate gains "The greater risk of a dovish repricing now is another sharp tech-led equity selloff rather than a tilt in communication by the Fed, in our view. Despite the slightly lower-than-expected inflation in December, the strength of the jobs market should keep Chair Jerome Powell's communication on the cautious side and markets may still lack a catalyst to price in more than the 50bp of cuts currently in the curve by year-end.""The themes of tech stock turmoil – even though sentiment stabilized yesterday – and the Fed’s independence in light of President Trump’s insistent calls for lower rates may be raised at the press conference. However, we don’t think equity volatility this week has raised enough concerns at the FOMC about the potential knock-on wealth effect to warrant a comment by Powell. And expect a firm reiteration of the independence from political pressure.""If US tech stocks enjoy another calm day and the Fed remains cautious on easing as we expect, the dollar should consolidate gains as the revamped universal tariff risk justifies the current short-term USD overvaluation."

10:48 EUR: Looking at 1.040 more than 1.050 – ING
The euro continues to be driven by US events, from tech news to the tariff threat. Neither a cautious Fed today nor a dovish-leaning ECB tomorrow will trigger a material EUR/USD rebound, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

The euro continues to be driven by US events, from tech news to the tariff threat. Neither a cautious Fed today nor a dovish-leaning ECB tomorrow will trigger a material EUR/USD rebound, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes. Risks are skewed towards a move below 1.040"We estimate the risk premium on EUR/USD at 2%, which is consistent with the resurging risk of universal tariffs by the US following Trump's comments earlier this week. We think that the confirmation that the US Treasury is actively laying out a plan for tariff implementation should prevent that risk premium gap from being closed.""We don’t expect EUR/USD to trade much further from the current spot by the end of the week. If anything, we believe the risks are skewed towards a move below 1.040 rather than a return above 1.050."

10:30 Sweden Riksbank Interest Rate Decision meets forecasts (2.25%)
Sweden Riksbank Interest Rate Decision meets forecasts (2.25%)

10:19 GBP/JPY remains below 193.50 due to hawkish mood surrounding BoJ’s policy outlook
GBP/JPY surrenders its recent gains from the previous session, trading around 193.30 during the European hours on Wednesday.

10:00 Spain Gross Domestic Product - Estimated (YoY) above expectations (3.2%) in 4Q: Actual (3.5%)
Spain Gross Domestic Product - Estimated (YoY) above expectations (3.2%) in 4Q: Actual (3.5%)

10:00 Spain Gross Domestic Product - Estimated (QoQ) came in at 0.8%, above expectations (0.6%) in 4Q
Spain Gross Domestic Product - Estimated (QoQ) came in at 0.8%, above expectations (0.6%) in 4Q

09:56 Pound Sterling edges higher against US Dollar ahead of Fed’s policy decision
The Pound Sterling (GBP) ticks higher to near 1.2450 against the US Dollar (USD) in Wednesday’s European session.

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The GBP/USD pair gains as the US Dollar retrace as investors liquidate some risk-off trades built on concerns that Chinese DeepSeek’s affordable Artificial Intelligence (AI) model would challenge the dominance of top chatbots, such as OpenAI and Meta, which will reduce China’s technology gap with the United States (US). The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, falls to near 107.75. The Greenback is also trading cautiously ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision, which will be announced at 19:00 GMT. Traders are confident that the Fed will announce a pause in the current policy easing spell and keep interest rates unchanged in the range of 4.25%-4.50%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. In the last three policy meetings, the Fed has reduced its key borrowing rates by 100 basis points (bps). Therefore, the Fed’s guidance on how long it will keep borrowing costs at their current levels will significantly influence the US Dollar. Apart from that, investors will also pay attention to the Fed’s views on US President Donald Trump’s tariffs plans and their impact on the monetary policy outlook and inflation. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stated on Tuesday that 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico from February 1 are “still on the books”. Leavitt added that the President is “very much still considering 10% tariffs on China” from Saturday. This week, Trump also said that he planned to impose tariffs on the import of pharmaceuticals, advanced chips, and steel in an attempt to encourage domestic manufacturing. Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling gains as UK Starmer hopes turnaround in economic prospects The Pound Sterling gains against its major peers on Wednesday as United Kingdom (UK) Prime Minister Keir Starmer indicated better trade relations with the US in an interview with Bloomberg on Tuesday. Starmer said that we've already got a “huge amount of trade” between our two countries, and the base is there for even “better trading relations”. Starmer’s optimistic comments on trade relations with the US have eased fears that the UK will face tariff threats from Trump. On the economic outlook, Starmer said that the number one priority of our government is “growth,” and the economy is on the brisk of a “turnaround”. For more cues on the economic outlook, investors will focus on Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves’s speech in Oxfordshire on Wednesday. In it, she is expected to unveil new plans to deliver the Oxford-Cambridge Growth Corridor that will boost the UK economy, Gov.UK reported. The agency also reported that the development is expected to boost the UK economy by up to £78 billion by 2035. On the monetary policy front, traders are confident that the Bank of England (BoE) will reduce interest rates by 25 bps to 4.5% in its first policy meeting of the year on February 6. Traders have priced in a 25 bps interest rate reduction as the UK inflation grew at a slower-than-projected pace and Retail Sales surprisingly declined in December. Also, the labor demand has slowed due to Rachel Reeves’ decision to hike employers’ contributions to National Insurance (NI). Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling rebounds from 1.2400The Pound Sterling regains ground on Wednesday after correcting to near 1.2400 against the US Dollar the previous day. The GBP/USD pair rebounds as its near-term outlook remains firm, given it holds the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 1.2400. However, the 50-day EMA near 1.2510 continues to be a major barrier for the Sterling bulls. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) moves higher above 50.00 from the 20.00-40.00 range, suggesting that the bearish momentum has ended, at least for now. Looking down, the January 13 low of 1.2100 and the October 2023 low of 1.2050 will act as key support zones for the pair. On the upside, the December 30 high of 1.2607 will act as key resistance. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

09:54 NZD/USD depreciates to near 0.5650 ahead of Fed policy decision
NZD/USD continues to lose ground for the third consecutive day, trading around 0.5660 during the European hours on Wednesday.

09:48 Japan’s Kato declines to say whether tariff was discussed with US Treasury Sec. Bessent
Following his video conference with new US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Wednesday, Japan’s Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato declined to say whether tariff was discussed.

09:20 Forex Today: US Dollar consolidates gains as focus shifts to Fed policy announcements
Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, January 29: The US Dollar (USD) struggles to build on Tuesday's gains as investors move to the sidelines ahead of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) highly-anticipated monetary policy announcements.

09:12 EUR/GBP falls below 0.8400 as continuing losing streak due to a potential ECB rate cut
EUR/GBP extends its losing streak for the fifth successive session, trading around 0.8380 during the early European hours on Wednesday.

09:08 USD/CHF holds below 0.9050 ahead of Fed rate decision
The USD/CHF pair loses ground to near 0.9035 on Wednesday during the early European trading hours.

09:00 Germany GfK Consumer Confidence Survey came in at -22.4, below expectations (-20) in February
Germany GfK Consumer Confidence Survey came in at -22.4, below expectations (-20) in February

07:37 EUR/CAD Price Forecast: The first upside barrier emerges near 1.5100, BoC rate decision in focus
The EUR/CAD cross trades in positive territory around 1.5025 during the early European session on Wednesday.

07:23 EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Slides to 162.00 area; seems vulnerable ahead of ECB on Thursday
The EUR/JPY cross struggles to capitalize on the overnight bounce from the vicinity of mid-161.00s and attracts some intraday sellers during the Asian session on Wednesday.

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The EUR/JPY cross struggles to capitalize on the overnight bounce from the vicinity of mid-161.00s and attracts some intraday sellers during the Asian session on Wednesday. Spot prices slide back closer to the 162.00 round figure in the last hour and seem vulnerable to weaken further amid the emergence of some buying around the Japanese Yen (JPY). Despite a generally positive tone around the equity markets, expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hike interest rates further this year continue to underpin the JPY. Apart from this, persistent worries about the potential economic fallout from US President Donald Trump's trade policies further benefit the JPY's relative safe-haven status and further contribute to capping the upside for the EUR/JPY cross. From a technical perspective, the recent repeated failures near the 164.70-164.80 region, which coincides with the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), constitute the formation of multiple tops on the daily chart. That said, neutral oscillators on the daily chart warrant caution before placing bearish bets around the EUR/JPY cross ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on Thursday. In the meantime, the 161.55-161.50 ara, or the weekly low touched on Monday, might continue to offer some support ahead of the 161.00 round figure. Some follow-through selling will reaffirm the negative bias and make the EUR/JPY cross vulnerable to accelerate the fall towards the 160.60 intermediate support en route to the 160.00 psychological mark and the 159.70-159.65 area, or the monthly trough. On the flip side, the overnight swing high, around the 162.70 area, could act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the 163.00 mark. A sustained strength beyond the latter could trigger a short-covering rally towards the 163.65-163.70 horizontal resistance before the EUR/JPY cross aims to reclaim the 164.00 mark. The momentum could extend further towards testing the 200-day SMA pivotal resistance, around the 164.50 area. EUR/JPY daily chartEconomic Indicator ECB Main Refinancing Operations Rate One of the three key interest rates set by the European Central Bank (ECB), the main refinancing operations rate is the interest rate the ECB charges to banks for one-week long loans. It is announced by the European Central Bank at its eight scheduled annual meetings. If the ECB expects inflation to rise, it will increase its interest rates to bring it back down to its 2% target. This tends to be bullish for the Euro (EUR), since it attracts more foreign capital inflows. Likewise, if the ECB sees inflation falling it may cut the main refinancing operations rate to encourage banks to borrow and lend more, in the hope of driving economic growth. This tends to weaken the Euro as it reduces its attractiveness as a place for investors to park capital. Read more. Next release: Thu Jan 30, 2025 13:15 Frequency: IrregularConsensus: 2.9%Previous: 3.15%Source: European Central Bank

07:04 AUD/JPY breaks below 97.00, downside risks appear due to softer Australian Inflation
AUD/JPY depreciates as the Australian Dollar (AUD) falls against its peers following the release of softer Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from Australia on Wednesday.

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The currency cross trades around 96.90 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. Australia’s CPI inflation eased to 2.4% year-over-year in Q4 from 2.8% in Q3, also below the consensus forecast of 2.5%. Monthly CPI for December 2024 increased by 2.5% year-over-year, in line with forecasts and up from November’s 2.3%. This marked the highest reading since August but remained within the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target range of 2% to 3% for the fourth consecutive month. The easing inflationary pressures at the end of 2024 have strengthened the case for a potential interest rate cut by the RBA in February. The central bank has held the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 4.35% since November 2023, emphasizing that inflation must “sustainably” return to its 2%-3% target range before any rate cut can be considered. Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers stated that "the worst of the inflation challenge is well and truly behind us." Chalmers further emphasized that "the soft landing we have been planning and preparing for is looking more and more likely," according to Reuters. Moreover, the Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens amid increasing expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue raising interest rates. Minutes of the December Bank of Japan meeting released this Wednesday showed that members emphasized the need for cautious monetary policy adjustments. Meanwhile, investors are more confident that the BoJ will continue its move toward normalization and deliver additional interest rate hikes in 2025. Last week, the BoJ reaffirmed its commitment to further rate hikes and adjustments to its monetary policy stance if the outlook presented at the January meeting unfolds as expected. Economic Indicator Monthly Consumer Price Index (YoY) The Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on a monthly basis, measures the changes in the price of a fixed basket of goods and services acquired by household consumers. The indicator was developed to provide inflation data at a higher frequency than the quarterly CPI. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. A high reading is seen as bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Wed Jan 29, 2025 00:30 Frequency: MonthlyActual: 2.5%Consensus: 2.5%Previous: 2.3%Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

07:00 Japan Consumer Confidence Index below expectations (36.5) in January: Actual (35.2)
Japan Consumer Confidence Index below expectations (36.5) in January: Actual (35.2)

06:36 India Gold price today: Gold steadies, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices remained broadly unchanged in India on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

06:34 Gold price traders seem non-committed ahead of the crucial Fed policy decision
Gold price (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on the previous day's positive move and oscillates in a range above the $2,760 level during the Asian session on Wednesday.

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Gold price (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on the previous day's positive move and oscillates in a range above the $2,760 level during the Asian session on Wednesday. Signs of stability in the equity markets act as a headwind for the safe-haven precious metal. Meanwhile, a fresh leg down in the US Treasury bond yields and bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut rates further this year cap the US Dollar (USD) recovery from over a one-month low. This, along with concerns about US President Donald Trump's tariff plans, lends support to the non-yielding yellow metal. Traders also seem reluctant to place aggressive bets around the Gold price and opt to wait on the sidelines ahead of the key central bank event risk – the outcome of a two-day FOMC monetary policy meeting. The Fed is scheduled to announce its decision later during the North American session and is widely expected to stand pat, despite Trump's demand to cut interest rates immediately. Nevertheless, the Fed's policy outlook will play a key role in influencing the near-term USD price dynamics and determining the next leg of a directional move for the precious metal. Gold price bulls turn cautious ahead of the Fed policy update; downside seems cushioned Calmer conditions across global markets dent demand for traditional safe-haven assets and fail to assist the Gold price to build on Tuesday's positive move ahead of the key central bank event risk. The yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond languishes near a one-month trough, capping the overnight US Dollar recovery and acting as a tailwind for the non-yielding yellow metal. Investors remain concerned about the potential economic fallout from US President Donald Trump's plans to impose tariffs on imported computer chips, pharmaceuticals, aluminum, steel and copper. The move, aimed at pushing the companies to boost production in the US, could trigger a fresh wave of global trade wars and might continue to act as a tailwind for the safe-haven precious metal. Data released on Tuesday by the US Census Bureau showed that Durable Goods Orders declined 2.2% in December, compared to a 2% fall in November and market expectations for a 0.8% rise. Separately, the Conference Board (CB) reported that the Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 104.1 in January from 109.5 in the previous month and the Present Situation Index fell to 134.3. Meanwhile, the market focus remains glued to the Federal Reserve's policy decision first meeting this year, which will drive the US Dollar demand and provide a fresh impetus to the XAU/USD. Gold price could aim to challenge all-time peak once the $2,772-2,773 hurdle is cleared decisivelyFrom a technical perspective, the recent breakout through the $2,720-2,725 horizontal barrier and positive oscillators on the daily chart suggest that the path of least resistance for the Gold price remains to the upside. A subsequent move above the $2,772-2,773 area will reaffirm the constructive outlook and lift the XAU/USD beyond the $2,786 area, or the highest level since October 2024 touched last Friday, towards the all-time peak, near the $2,790 zone. Some follow-through buying, leading to a strength beyond the $2,800 mark, will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders and pave the way for an extension of a well-established uptrend witnessed over the past month or so. On the flip side, weakness below the $2,755-2,753 immediate support might continue to attract some buyers and remain limited near the weekly swing low, around the $2,730 area touched on Monday. Some follow-through selling below the $2,725-2,720 resistance-turned-support could pave the way for deeper losses and drag the Gold price to the $2,707-2,705 area en route to the $2,684 region. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

06:29 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD gains traction to near $30.50, Fed rate decision looms
The Silver price (XAG/USD) trades with mild gains around $30.40 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday.

06:13 EUR/USD inches higher to near 1.0450, upside seems limited amid a risk-off mood
EUR/USD halts its two-day losing streak, trading around 1.0440 during the Asian hours on Wednesday.

05:31 FX option expiries for Jan 29 NY cut
FX option expiries for Jan 29 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

FX option expiries for Jan 29 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below. EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.0300 1.8b 1.0500 1.2b 1.0600 1b USD/JPY: USD amounts 155.00 1.4b 148.00 930m AUD/USD: AUD amounts 0.6220 580m 0.6350 441m USD/CAD: USD amounts 1.4500 1.3b 1.4190 414m NZD/USD: NZD amounts 0.5625 320m

05:24 USD/CAD Price Forecast: Maintains position around 1.4400 near a crucial support zone
The USD/CAD pair maintains its position after two consecutive days of gains, trading close to 1.4400 during the Asian session on Wednesday.

05:10 WTI trades with modest losses around $73.25 area, down nearly 0.50% for the day
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices tick lower during the Asian session on Wednesday and erode a part of the previous day's modest recovery gains from a nearly three-week low.

04:36 Japanese Yen remains on the back foot against USD; focus remains on Fed
The Japanese Yen (JPY) remains on the defensive against its American counterpart during the Asian session on Wednesday, though it lacks bearish conviction amid expectations of more interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ).

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Japanese Yen is undermined by concerns about the economic fallout from Trump's tariff. A positive risk tone also dents demand for the safe-haven JPY and lends support to USD/JPY. The USD bulls seem reluctant to place aggressive bets and opt to wait for the Fed decision. The Japanese Yen (JPY) remains on the defensive against its American counterpart during the Asian session on Wednesday, though it lacks bearish conviction amid expectations of more interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Apart from this, the recent decline in the US Treasury bond yields, fueled by rising bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would keep cutting rates in 2025, should limit the downside for the lower-yielding JPY. Meanwhile, concerns about the economic fallout from US President Donald Trump's threatened tariffs, along with a generally positive risk tone, undermine the safe-haven JPY. Adding to this, the overnight strong US Dollar (USD) positive move assists the USD/JPY pair to trade with a positive bias above mid-155.00s. Traders, however, might opt to wait on the sidelines ahead of the FOMC monetary policy decision, due to be announced later today. Japanese Yen bulls seem reluctant amid Trump’s tariff threats, despite BoJ rate cut bets The Japanese Yen retreated sharply on Tuesday, from a six-week high touched the previous day, following fresh tariff threats from US President Donald Trump. Trump said late on Monday that he plans to impose duties on imported computer chips, pharmaceuticals, and metals to push companies to boost domestic production. The US Dollar staged a solid recovery from over a one-month low amid speculations that Trump's protectionist policies could reignite inflationary pressures. The US Census Bureau reported on Tuesday that Durable Goods Orders declined 2.2% in December, compared to a 2% fall in November and a 0.8% rise expected. The Conference Board's (CB) Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 104.1 in January from 109.5 previous, while the Present Situation Index fell to 134.3. Minutes of the December Bank of Japan meeting released this Wednesday showed that members emphasized the need for cautious monetary policy adjustments. Meanwhile, investors are more confident that the BoJ will continue its move towards normalization and deliver additional interest rate hikes in 2025. Moreover, hopes that Japan's spring wage negotiations will result in strong hikes again this year, which should allow the BoJ to tighten its policy further. In contrast, market participants have been pricing in the possibility that the Federal Reserve will lower borrowing costs twice by the end of this year. Investors await the outcome of a two-day FOMC meeting, which will play a key role in driving the USD and provide a fresh impetus to the USD/JPY pair. USD/JPY could attract sellers at higher levels and remain capped near the 156.70 hurdleThis week's breakdown below a multi-month-old ascending channel favors bearish traders amid slightly negative oscillators on the daily chart. Hence, any subsequent move up beyond the 156.00 mark could be seen as a selling opportunity and remain capped near the 156.60-156.70 supply zone. Some follow-through buying, however, could trigger a short-covering rally and lift the USD/JPY pair beyond the 157.00 mark, towards the 157.45 hurdle. The momentum could extend further towards the 158.00 mark en route to the 158.85-158.90 region, or a multi-month top touched on January 10. On the flip side, the 155.00 psychological mark now seems to protect the immediate downside ahead of the 154.55-154.50 horizontal zone and the 154.00 round figure. This is closely followed by the weekly swing low, around the 153.70 area touched Monday, below which the USD/JPY pair could accelerate the fall further towards the 153.30 support before eventually dropping to the 153.00 mark. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

04:30 GBP/USD holds ground near 1.2450 ahead of Fed policy decision
GBP/USD remains steady after registering losses in the previous session, trading around 1.2440 during the Asian hours on Wednesday.

04:28 USD/INR holds steady ahead of Fed rate decision
The Indian Rupee (INR) flat lines on Wednesday after its largest single-day fall in two weeks in the previous session.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Indian Rupee trades flat in Wednesday’s early Asian session. The concerns about Trump's tariffs and equity outflows weigh on the INR, but RBI intervention could help contain excessive losses. The Fed monetary policy meeting will be closely monitored later on Wednesday. The Indian Rupee (INR) flat lines on Wednesday after its largest single-day fall in two weeks in the previous session. The local currency remains on the defensive amid renewed concerns about trade tariffs from US President Donald Trump, along with the sustained foreign fund outflows. Nonetheless, the routine foreign exchange intervention from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) might help limit the INR’s losses.

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision will be in the spotlight later on Wednesday, with no change in rate expected. Investors will closely monitor Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference as it might offer additional insights into the monetary policy outlook. The cautious stance from the Fed officials could provide some support to the Greenback and act as a headwind for the pair. On the Indian docket, the Federal Fiscal Deficit will take center stage on Friday. Indian Rupee steadies amid Trump’s tariff threats India must shift away from its dependence on raw material exports and focus on further expanding its manufacturing sector to boost economic growth, said Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. "Malaysia, Singapore and India stand out as the economies within Emerging Asia where these critical products might account for significant proportions of their shipments to the U.S., followed by Taiwan, the Philippines, Thailand and Korea," Barclays said in a note. Late Tuesday, US President Donald Trump's press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, said that the plan to impose Canada and Mexico with punishing tariffs on February 1 is still in play. The Durable Goods Orders in the US declined by 2.2%, or $6.3 billion, in December to $276.1 billion, according to the US Census Bureau on Tuesday. This reading followed a 2% decrease reported in November and came in worse than the market expectation for an increase of 0.8%. Market pricing is pointing to a near 100% certainty that the Fed will keep the policy rate in a target range of 4.25%-4.50%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. USD/INR maintains its constructive bias in the longer term The Indian Rupee trades a flat note on the day. The USD/INR pair keeps the bullish vibe on the daily timeframe as the price has broken above the descending triangle pattern while being well-supported above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The upward momentum is confirmed by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is located above the midline near 65.30, indicating that further upside cannot be ruled out.

The key resistance level for USD/INR emerges at an all-time high of 86.69. Sustained trading above the mentioned level could see a rally to the 87.00 psychological mark.

In the bearish event, the initial support level is seen at 86.31, the low of January 28. A breach of this level could pave the way to 86.14, the low of January 24. Further south, the next contention to watch is 85.85, the low of January 10. Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.

03:50 Australian Treasurer Chalmers: The worst of the inflation challenge is well and truly behind us
Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers said on Wednesday, “the worst of the inflation challenge is well and truly behind us.” He noted further that “the soft landing we have been planning and preparing for is looking more and more likely.” Market reaction AUD/USD was last seen trading at 0.6229, down 0.30% on the day.

03:26 Australian Dollar loses ground following CPI data
The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends its losses for the third consecutive day against the US Dollar (USD), driven by lower-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from Australia released on Wednesday.

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Australia’s CPI rose by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter of 2024, matching the growth seen in the previous quarter but falling short of the market expectation of 0.3%. On an annual basis, CPI inflation eased to 2.4% in Q4 from 2.8% in Q3, also below the consensus forecast of 2.5%. Australia’s Monthly CPI for December 2024 increased by 2.5% year-over-year, in line with forecasts and up from November’s 2.3%. This marked the highest reading since August but remained within the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target range of 2% to 3% for the fourth consecutive month. The RBA’s Trimmed Mean CPI rose by 3.2% YoY, the slowest pace in three years, slightly under the expected 3.3% but still above the central bank’s target range. The easing inflationary pressures at the end of 2024 have strengthened the case for a potential interest rate cut by the RBA in February. The central bank has held the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 4.35% since November 2023, emphasizing that inflation must “sustainably” return to its 2%-3% target range before any rate cut can be considered. The AUD also faced challenges amid increased risk aversion due to tariff threats made by US President Donald Trump. President Trump announced plans on Monday evening to impose tariffs on imports of computer chips, pharmaceuticals, steel, aluminum, and copper. The goal is to shift production to the United States (US) and bolster domestic manufacturing. Australian Dollar depreciates as US Dollar remains stronger amid cautious Fed The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the US Dollar’s value against six major currencies, remains steady around 108.00 at the time of writing. Investors are focused on the upcoming US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision, which is set to take center stage later in the North American session. The Fed’s cautious policy stance continues to provide support for the Greenback. According to the CME FedWatch tool, market expectations indicate nearly 100% certainty that the Fed will maintain its policy rate within the target range of 4.25%-4.50%. However, traders will be closely monitoring Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference for any hints regarding the future direction of monetary policy. “Nobody knows what to expect from the White House. The policy moves are still very unclear, but we do know that a number of those proposals that have been talked about in the White House are a bit inflationary, and I think that’s going to keep the Fed in check,” said US Bank chief economist Beth Ann Bovino. Scott Bessent, the Treasury Secretary under Trump, stated that he aims to introduce new universal tariffs on US imports, starting at 2.5%. These tariffs could rise to as much as 20%, reflecting Trump’s aggressive stance on trade policies, consistent with his campaign rhetoric last year. Speaking with reporters aboard Air Force One early Tuesday, US President Donald Trump stated that he “wants tariffs ‘much bigger’ than 2.5%,” as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent proposed. However, Trump has not yet decided on the specific tariff levels. Traders expect the Fed to keep its benchmark overnight rate steady in the 4.25%-4.50% range at its January meeting. Moreover, Trump’s policies could drive inflationary pressures, potentially limiting the Fed to one more rate cut. China's NBS Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.1 in January, down from 50.1 in December, missing the market expectation of 50.1. Similarly, the NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI declined to 50.2 in January compared to December's 52.2 reading. As close trade partners, China's economic performance significantly impacts the Australian economy. The Australian Dollar also failed to gain support from China’s fresh stimulus measures to promote its development of index investment products, its latest effort to revive the ailing equity market. The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has approved a second round of long-term stock investment pilot programs valued at 52 billion Yuan ($7.25 billion). China’s Industrial Profits declined by 3.3% year-over-year to CNY 7,431.05 billion in 2024, easing from the 4.7% drop recorded in the first 11 months of the year. This marks the third consecutive year of contraction, following a 2.3% decline in 2023. The continued downturn reflects ongoing economic challenges, including weak demand, rising deflationary pressures, and a prolonged slump in the property sector. Australian Dollar moves below 0.6250 after breaking below ascending channel The AUD/USD pair trades near 0.6230 on Wednesday, having broken below the ascending channel on the daily chart, signaling a shift toward a bearish bias. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped below the 50 level, reinforcing the bearish sentiment in the market. A decisive break below the key support zone at the lower boundary of the ascending channel has further strengthened the bearish outlook. This could push the AUD/USD pair toward the 0.6131 level, its lowest since April 2020, recorded on January 13. On the upside, immediate resistance lies at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6256, which aligns with the channel’s lower boundary. A rebound above this level and a return into the ascending channel could shift the bias back to bullish, with the pair potentially targeting the upper boundary near 0.6360. AUD/USD: Daily ChartAustralian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Swiss Franc. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.00% 0.03% 0.09% 0.06% 0.40% 0.18% -0.01% EUR 0.00% 0.03% 0.11% 0.06% 0.39% 0.20% -0.01% GBP -0.03% -0.03% 0.06% 0.03% 0.36% 0.15% -0.05% JPY -0.09% -0.11% -0.06% -0.04% 0.30% 0.07% -0.11% CAD -0.06% -0.06% -0.03% 0.04% 0.34% 0.12% -0.07% AUD -0.40% -0.39% -0.36% -0.30% -0.34% -0.21% -0.40% NZD -0.18% -0.20% -0.15% -0.07% -0.12% 0.21% -0.19% CHF 0.01% 0.01% 0.05% 0.11% 0.07% 0.40% 0.19% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

02:30 Australia Consumer Price Index (QoQ) came in at 0.2% below forecasts (0.3%) in 4Q
Australia Consumer Price Index (QoQ) came in at 0.2% below forecasts (0.3%) in 4Q

02:30 Australia RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (QoQ) below forecasts (0.6%) in 4Q: Actual (0.5%)
Australia RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (QoQ) below forecasts (0.6%) in 4Q: Actual (0.5%)

02:30 Australia Consumer Price Index (YoY) registered at 2.4%, below expectations (2.5%) in 4Q
Australia Consumer Price Index (YoY) registered at 2.4%, below expectations (2.5%) in 4Q

02:30 Australia RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (YoY) came in at 3.2% below forecasts (3.3%) in 4Q
Australia RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (YoY) came in at 3.2% below forecasts (3.3%) in 4Q

02:19 NZD/USD extends downside to near 0.5650 as traders await Fed rate decision
The NZD/USD pair extends the decline to near 0.5665 during the early Asian session on Wednesday, pressured by the renewed US Dollar (USD) demand.

02:04 BoJ Minutes: Central bank to adjust degree of easing if outlook realized
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) board members shared their views on the monetary policy outlook on Wednesday, per the BoJ Minutes of the December meeting.

01:33 White House Press Secretary says February 1 tariff deadline on Canada and Mexico still stands
US President Donald Trump's press secretary Karoline Leavitt said late Tuesday that the plan to impose Canada and Mexico with punishing tariffs on February 1 is still in play.

01:29 United Kingdom BRC Shop Price Index (YoY): -0.7% (January) vs -1%
United Kingdom BRC Shop Price Index (YoY): -0.7% (January) vs -1%

01:24 EUR/USD backslides ahead of Fed rate call
EUR/USD pared recent gains on Tuesday, shedding six-tenths of one percent and inching back toward the 1.0400 handle as markets gear up for another outing from the Federal Reserve (Fed) on Wednesday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD shed 0.6% on Tuesday as market sentiment pulls back.Latest Fed rate call expected to be a hold, investors waiting to see changes in narrative.Tariff threats continue to hang over trader risk appetite, keeping Greenback bid.EUR/USD pared recent gains on Tuesday, shedding six-tenths of one percent and inching back toward the 1.0400 handle as markets gear up for another outing from the Federal Reserve (Fed) on Wednesday. Markets are overwhelmingly expecting a flat rate hold from the Fed in January, but investors will be keeping a close eye on not only Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference, but any tweets from US President Donald Trump. The economic calendar is lacking any meaningful data on the European side for the front half of the week. Fiber traders will have to wait until Thursday’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) updates from both Germany and the pan-EU area for the fourth quarter. Late Monday, US President Donald Trump swiftly resumed his aggressive tariff agenda, reiterating his intention to impose hefty import fees on a broad spectrum of foreign goods and industries. This latest version of his plan involves vague tariffs on steel, copper, aluminum, various semiconductors, and foreign microprocessors in general, aimed at compelling foreign businesses to relocate their factories to the US. Persuading these sectors to shift production domestically is a challenging task, as establishing factories in the US is typically costly, and US labor demands significantly higher wages compared to countries that produce industrial goods on a large scale. As a result, import fees are unlikely to influence production decisions significantly; instead, they may lead to inflation and reduced consumer spending. The Federal Reserve is expected to announce its latest interest rate decision on Wednesday. While no change in the fed funds rate is anticipated this week, traders will closely watch for updates on the ongoing tensions between Fed Chair Jerome Powell and President Trump. The Fed's considerable autonomy limits the White House's influence over interest rates, a situation President Trump has expressed frustration about in the past. Trump’s recent claims that he will “demand” lower interest rates are expected to impact Chair Powell’s upcoming press conference. EUR/USD price forecast The Euro’s backslide against the Greenback on Tuesday puts the Fiber in a tenuous technical scenario: a bearish turnaround in EUR/USD bids is forming a technical rejection from the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) declining into 1.0460. The pair is poised for further losses on a technical basis, unless bidders are able to muscle price action back into the green and on a path toward the 200-day EMA, floating just south of the 1.0700 handle. EUR/USD daily chartEuro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

01:16 RBNZ's Conway: Interest rates moving toward neutral
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Chief Economist Paul Conway said late Tuesday that the interest rate will tend towards neutral in the absence of future shocks to the system as pandemic-related disruptions fade, per Reuters.

00:59 USD/CAD holds positive ground near 1.4400 ahead of BoC, Fed rate decisions
The USD/CAD pair trades with mild gains around 1.4400 during the early Asian session on Wednesday.

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23:48 Gold prices wobble as Fed maintains hawkish stance on policy Gold prices edged lower as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered a hawkish hold.

23:45 New Zealand Trade Balance NZD (YoY) climbed from previous $-8.25B to $-7.67B in December New Zealand Trade Balance NZD (YoY) climbed from previous $-8.25B to $-7.67B in December

23:45 New Zealand Trade Balance NZD (MoM) above forecasts ($-1365M) in December: Actual ($219M) New Zealand Trade Balance NZD (MoM) above forecasts ($-1365M) in December: Actual ($219M)

23:45 New Zealand Imports down to $6.62B in December from previous $6.92B New Zealand Imports down to $6.62B in December from previous $6.92B

23:45 New Zealand Exports up to $6.84B in December from previous $6.48B New Zealand Exports up to $6.84B in December from previous $6.48B

23:30 Brazil Interest Rate Decision came in at 12.25%, below expectations (13.25%) Brazil Interest Rate Decision came in at 12.25%, below expectations (13.25%)

22:46 Forex Today: Investors’ focus shifts to the ECB meeting and data The US Dollar traded in a positive fashion after the Fed left its interest rates unchanged, as widely anticipated, and Chief Powell delivered a neutral message at his press conference.

21:17 Gold price waver as Fed delivers hawkish hold Gold prices slumped as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered a hawkish hold.

21:10 AUD/USD declines as Fed’s hawkish stance weighs on Aussie The AUD/USD pair extended its decline on Wednesday, falling to 0.6220 following the Federal Reserve’s policy decision.

21:09 GBP/USD churns after Fed holds rates steady, more volatility in the barrel GBP/USD knocked into some fresh volatility, testing down in intraday chart action and testing below 1.2435 in response to the Federal Reserve's (Fed) recent decision to maintain the interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%.

21:04 EUR/USD jitters post-Fed, pre-Powell EUR/USD sees some volatility, but more impact is still in the pipe.

21:00 United States Fed Interest Rate Decision in line with expectations (4.5%) United States Fed Interest Rate Decision in line with expectations (4.5%)

20:32 US Dollar firms as markets brace for Fed decision The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against a basket of currencies, extends its recovery above 108.00 as investors await the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision.

19:31 Mexican Peso treads water ahead of Fed’s decision The Mexican Peso (MXN) remains subdued against the US Dollar (USD) during the North American session as investors wait for the United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decision.

19:13 Canadian Dollar recedes after BoC cuts rates and ends QT The Canadian Dollar shed one-quarter of one percent against the Greenback on Wednesday, falling back after the Bank of Canada (BoC) slashed another 25 bps from interest rates, bringing the BoC’s main reference rate down to 3.0%.

18:00 Russia Producer Price Index (MoM) down to 0.4% in November from previous 1% Russia Producer Price Index (MoM) down to 0.4% in November from previous 1%

18:00 Russia Producer Price Index (YoY): 7.9% (November) vs 3.9% Russia Producer Price Index (YoY): 7.9% (November) vs 3.9%

17:46 AUD/USD slides as weak inflation data fuels RBA rate cut bets The AUD/USD dropped by 0.57% to 0.6225 on Wednesday, struggling near weekly lows below 0.6250.

17:30 United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change registered at 3.463M, below expectations (3.7M) in January 24 United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change registered at 3.463M, below expectations (3.7M) in January 24

17:08 USD/CAD reaches six-day high as BoC cut rates The USD/CAD hit a six-day high of 1.4470 after the Bank of Canada (BoC) cut rates by 25 basis points from 3.25% to 3%, as economists widely expected.

16:45 GBP/USD weakens further as markets brace for Fed decision The Pound Sterling extended its losses on Wednesday as the Greenback remains firm ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision.

16:45 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision in line with expectations (3%) Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision in line with expectations (3%)

16:37 USD/JPY ticks lower despite US Dollar performs strongly ahead of Fed policy decision The USD/JPY pair edges lower to near 155.40 in Wednesday’s North American session.

15:49 US Dollar outperforms its peers ahead of Fed’s policy decision The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, rises to near Friday’s high of 108.20 in Wednesday’s North American session.

15:30 United States Goods Trade Balance came in at $-122.1B, below expectations ($-105.7B) in December United States Goods Trade Balance came in at $-122.1B, below expectations ($-105.7B) in December

15:30 United States Wholesale Inventories came in at -0.5% below forecasts (0.1%) in December United States Wholesale Inventories came in at -0.5% below forecasts (0.1%) in December

15:15 GBP/USD eases in line with peers – Scotiabank The Pound Sterling (GBP) is edging marginally lower, in line with its European peers, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

15:13 EUR/USD: Outperforming stocks may provide some backing – Scotiabank The Euro (EUR) is moderately lower again as the USD firms broadly, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

15:09 CAD trades softer into BoC policy decision – Scotiabank Broader US Dollar (USD) strength explains the modest drop in the Canadian Dollar (CAD) on the session so far. The BoC policy decision today is expected to result in a 25bps rate cut which is already largely factored in.

15:06 USD grinds higher ahead of FOMC – Scotiabank The US Dollar (USD) is advancing again ahead of the Fed policy decision this afternoon, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

14:07 Gold caught in range trade ahead of Fed interest rate decision Gold’s price (XAU/USD) trades roughly flat and stabilizes around $2,760 at the time of writing on Wednesday after a whipsaw start to the week.

14:00 Mexico Jobless Rate s.a declined to 2.6% in December from previous 2.7% Mexico Jobless Rate s.a declined to 2.6% in December from previous 2.7%

14:00 Mexico Jobless Rate came in at 2.4%, below expectations (2.6%) in December Mexico Jobless Rate came in at 2.4%, below expectations (2.6%) in December

14:00 United States MBA Mortgage Applications fell from previous 0.1% to -2% in January 24 United States MBA Mortgage Applications fell from previous 0.1% to -2% in January 24

13:31 AUD/USD slumps to near 0.6220 on soft Aussie CPI, Fed policy in focus The AUD/USD pair falls sharply to near 0.6220 in Wednesday’s European session.

13:00 Federal Reserve set to keep interest rate unchanged, focus on data and Trump’s policies The United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce monetary policy decisions following the first policy meeting of the year on Wednesday.

12:41 Germany 10-y Bond Auction increased to 2.54% from previous 2.16% Germany 10-y Bond Auction increased to 2.54% from previous 2.16%

12:34 EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Faces selling pressure amid caution ahead of ECB policy meeting The EUR/JPY pair slumps to near two-day low of 161.60 in Wednesday’s European session.

12:20 USD/JPY is directionless above 155.00 – BBH The minutes of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) December meeting are outdated following last week’s 25bps policy rate hike to 0.50%, BBH FX strategists report.

12:19 UK's Reeves: We begun to turn things around UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves said on Wednesday, “we begun to turn things around.” Key takeaways UK regulation has been stifling and unpredictable.

12:17 NZD/USD is range-bound around 0.5670 – BBH RBNZ Chief Economist Conway stuck to bank’s dovish guidance, BBH FX strategists report.

12:15 AUD/USD is underperforming at the moment – BBH Australia’s Q4 CPI was soft and all but locks-in an RBA rate cut at the next meeting February 18, BBH FX strategists report.

12:13 CAD: BOC expected to slash the policy rate 25bps to 3.00% – BBH USD/CAD is trading in a tight range around 1.4400, BBH FX strategists report.

12:02 Italy Trade Balance non-EU up to €7.79B in December from previous €5.908B Italy Trade Balance non-EU up to €7.79B in December from previous €5.908B

12:01 Belgium Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) meets expectations (0.2%) in 4Q Belgium Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) meets expectations (0.2%) in 4Q

11:54 USD: Powell to emphasize caution again – BBH US Dollar (USD) is firm ahead of the FOMC’s decision. The target range for the Fed funds rate is widely expected to be left unchanged at 4.25-4.50%, BBH FX strategists report.

11:51 EUR/USD is under pressure as Fed interest rate decision looms large EUR/USD trades with caution near 1.0420 in Wednesday’s European session, with investors focusing on the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy announcement at 19:00 GMT.

11:46 Copper: Tariff threats keep the metals markets on edge – ING Copper dropped below $8,000/t in yesterday’s trading session after US President Donald Trump’s latest in a series of tariff threats, ING’s commodity analysts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

11:43 USD/CAD: Short-term price action can remain within a range – Societe Générale USD/CAD has evolved within a brief pause after facing interim resistance near 1.4470/1.4515, Societe Générale’s FX analysts report.

11:40 EU plans to ban Russian Aluminum imports – ING The European Union is reportedly proposing a phased ban on imports of Russian Aluminum to the bloc, ING’s commodity analysts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

11:37 AUD/USD: Currently a pullback is under way – Societe Générale AUD/USD briefly challenged lows of 2022 near 0.6170/0.6130 but has quickly rebounded, Societe Générale’s FX analysts report.

11:33 Crude oil is trading steady – ING Crude oil prices steadied yesterday after a sharp fall over the past few sessions as the US prepares to impose tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico and China from Saturday, ING’s commodity analysts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

11:30 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data.

11:20 USD/CAD rises above 1.4400 as traders adopt caution ahead of Fed decision USD/CAD gains ground for the third consecutive day, trading around 1.4420 during the European hours on Wednesday.

11:17 CAD: BoC may lean on the dovish side – ING The Bank of Canada (BoC) is widely expected to cut rates by 25bp today. That is also our call and markets are fully pricing it in.

11:01 Eurozone M3 Money Supply (3m) climbed from previous 3.5% to 3.6% in December Eurozone M3 Money Supply (3m) climbed from previous 3.5% to 3.6% in December

11:01 Italy Consumer Confidence above expectations (96) in January: Actual (98.2) Italy Consumer Confidence above expectations (96) in January: Actual (98.2)

11:01 Austria Purchasing Manager Index: 45.7 (January) vs 43.3 Austria Purchasing Manager Index: 45.7 (January) vs 43.3

11:01 Eurozone M3 Money Supply (YoY) registered at 3.5%, below expectations (3.8%) in December Eurozone M3 Money Supply (YoY) registered at 3.5%, below expectations (3.8%) in December

11:00 Eurozone Private Loans (YoY) above forecasts (1%) in December: Actual (1.1%) Eurozone Private Loans (YoY) above forecasts (1%) in December: Actual (1.1%)

11:00 Italy Business Confidence came in at 86.8, above expectations (85.5) in January Italy Business Confidence came in at 86.8, above expectations (85.5) in January

11:00 Switzerland ZEW Survey – Expectations rose from previous -20 to 17.7 in January Switzerland ZEW Survey – Expectations rose from previous -20 to 17.7 in January

11:00 BoC expected to trim interest rate again as markets seek clues on uncertain economic outlook The spotlight is on the Bank of Canada (BoC) this Wednesday, with widespread expectations that it will lower its policy rate for the sixth meeting in a row.

10:48 EUR: Looking at 1.040 more than 1.050 – ING The euro continues to be driven by US events, from tech news to the tariff threat. Neither a cautious Fed today nor a dovish-leaning ECB tomorrow will trigger a material EUR/USD rebound, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

10:30 Sweden Riksbank Interest Rate Decision meets forecasts (2.25%) Sweden Riksbank Interest Rate Decision meets forecasts (2.25%)

10:19 GBP/JPY remains below 193.50 due to hawkish mood surrounding BoJ’s policy outlook GBP/JPY surrenders its recent gains from the previous session, trading around 193.30 during the European hours on Wednesday.

10:00 Spain Gross Domestic Product - Estimated (YoY) above expectations (3.2%) in 4Q: Actual (3.5%) Spain Gross Domestic Product - Estimated (YoY) above expectations (3.2%) in 4Q: Actual (3.5%)

10:00 Spain Gross Domestic Product - Estimated (QoQ) came in at 0.8%, above expectations (0.6%) in 4Q Spain Gross Domestic Product - Estimated (QoQ) came in at 0.8%, above expectations (0.6%) in 4Q

09:56 Pound Sterling edges higher against US Dollar ahead of Fed’s policy decision The Pound Sterling (GBP) ticks higher to near 1.2450 against the US Dollar (USD) in Wednesday’s European session.

09:54 NZD/USD depreciates to near 0.5650 ahead of Fed policy decision NZD/USD continues to lose ground for the third consecutive day, trading around 0.5660 during the European hours on Wednesday.

09:48 Japan’s Kato declines to say whether tariff was discussed with US Treasury Sec. Bessent Following his video conference with new US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Wednesday, Japan’s Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato declined to say whether tariff was discussed.

09:12 EUR/GBP falls below 0.8400 as continuing losing streak due to a potential ECB rate cut EUR/GBP extends its losing streak for the fifth successive session, trading around 0.8380 during the early European hours on Wednesday.

09:08 USD/CHF holds below 0.9050 ahead of Fed rate decision The USD/CHF pair loses ground to near 0.9035 on Wednesday during the early European trading hours.

09:00 Germany GfK Consumer Confidence Survey came in at -22.4, below expectations (-20) in February Germany GfK Consumer Confidence Survey came in at -22.4, below expectations (-20) in February

07:37 EUR/CAD Price Forecast: The first upside barrier emerges near 1.5100, BoC rate decision in focus The EUR/CAD cross trades in positive territory around 1.5025 during the early European session on Wednesday.

07:23 EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Slides to 162.00 area; seems vulnerable ahead of ECB on Thursday The EUR/JPY cross struggles to capitalize on the overnight bounce from the vicinity of mid-161.00s and attracts some intraday sellers during the Asian session on Wednesday.

07:04 AUD/JPY breaks below 97.00, downside risks appear due to softer Australian Inflation AUD/JPY depreciates as the Australian Dollar (AUD) falls against its peers following the release of softer Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from Australia on Wednesday.

07:00 Japan Consumer Confidence Index below expectations (36.5) in January: Actual (35.2) Japan Consumer Confidence Index below expectations (36.5) in January: Actual (35.2)

06:36 India Gold price today: Gold steadies, according to FXStreet data Gold prices remained broadly unchanged in India on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.