Forex News Timeline

23:45 New Zealand Employment Change came in at -0.1%, above forecasts (-0.2%) in 4Q
New Zealand Employment Change came in at -0.1%, above forecasts (-0.2%) in 4Q

23:45 New Zealand Unemployment Rate in line with forecasts (5.1%) in 4Q
New Zealand Unemployment Rate in line with forecasts (5.1%) in 4Q

23:45 New Zealand Labour Cost Index (YoY) below expectations (3%) in 4Q: Actual (2.9%)
New Zealand Labour Cost Index (YoY) below expectations (3%) in 4Q: Actual (2.9%)

23:45 New Zealand Participation Rate came in at 71%, below expectations (71.1%) in 4Q
New Zealand Participation Rate came in at 71%, below expectations (71.1%) in 4Q

23:45 New Zealand Labour Cost Index (QoQ) meets forecasts (0.6%) in 4Q
New Zealand Labour Cost Index (QoQ) meets forecasts (0.6%) in 4Q

23:41 United States API Weekly Crude Oil Stock came in at 5.025M, above forecasts (3.17M) in January 31
United States API Weekly Crude Oil Stock came in at 5.025M, above forecasts (3.17M) in January 31

23:39 NZD/USD Price Analysis: Kiwi climbs above 20-day SMA, signaling renewed momentum
The NZD/USD pair continued its upward trajectory on Tuesday, rising 0.39% to 0.5650 and breaking above its 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).

NZD/USD advances to 0.5650 on Tuesday, extending recent gains.The pair breaks above the 20-day SMA, reinforcing bullish sentiment.An overall bullish trend wouldbe confirmed if it breaks above 0.5800. The NZD/USD pair continued its upward trajectory on Tuesday, rising 0.39% to 0.5650 and breaking above its 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). This move suggests a potential shift in sentiment, with buyers gaining control after a prolonged period of range-bound movement. The breakout above this technical level could pave the way for further gains in the near term so the pair should focus in building support around this area to secure it. From a technical perspective, indicators point to growing bullish momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed to 50, confirming increasing buying pressure, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram prints rising green bars, reinforcing the improving outlook. Looking ahead, if NZD/USD manages to hold above the 20-day SMA, the next resistance levels to watch are at 0.5680 and 0.5725. On the downside, immediate support lies at 0.5620, with a break below this level potentially leading to a retest of 0.5585. Maintaining a position above the 20-day SMA will be crucial for sustaining the current bullish bias. NZD/USD daily chart

23:32 Gold hits all-time high as US-China trade war escalates
Gold reached a record high of $2,845 late Tuesday during the North American session as the US Dollar tumbled, weighed down by falling US Treasury bond yields.

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The “trade war” between the United States (US) and China sparked a flight to the yellow metal's safe-haven status. The XAU/USD trades at $2,843, up more than 1%. Geopolitical issues are driving bullion prices. Although US President Donald Trump delayed tariffs on Mexico and Canada, duties of 10% on Chinese goods kicked in, sparking retaliatory actions by China. China applied tariffs on specific products, such as coal, Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), Crude Oil, farm equipment and electric trucks imported from the US. Additionally, it has decided to impose controls on exports of some metals, which are critical for electronics. The escalation of the US-China trade war weighed on the Greenback, which, according to the US Dollar Index (DXY), fell 0.43%, below the 108.00 figure. Therefore, the non-yielding metal is set to extend its rally, initially towards $2,850, ahead of the $2,900 figure. However, Federal Reserve (Fed) speakers could cap Gold’s advance if they become slightly hawkish. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said the Fed’s job is not done on inflation, adding that the US economy is in a good place and the Central Bank is in a strong position to wait and see and assess tariffs' impact. Daily digest market movers: Bullion prices underpinned by falling US yields Gold price soars underpinned by falling US yields. US real yields, as measured by the 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), tumble almost six basis points (bps) down from 2.13% to 2.072% The US 10-year Treasury bond yield falls four bps to 4.51%. US Jobs Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data showed that job openings are decreasing, indicating a strong labor market. Job openings plunged to 7.6 million in December, revealing that the Department of Labor had decreased from November 8.156 million and was below forecasts of 8 million. US Factory Orders fell -0.9% in December, below forecasts of a -0.7% contraction. Money market fed funds rate futures are pricing in 48 basis points (bps) of easing by the Federal Reserve in 2025.Source: Prime Market TerminalXAU/USD technical outlook: Gold prices set to hit record highs Gold’s uptrend remains intact as bullish momentum grows, as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI). The RSI gives overbought signals, but due to the trend's strength, the most extreme level moves up from 70 to 80. Therefore, as the RSI is at 74, bulls could remain hopeful that higher prices lie ahead. The next resistance would be $2,850 ahead of the 161.8% Fibonacci (Fib) extension at $2,889, ahead of $2,900 as seen on the 4-hour chart. Conversely, if sellers clear the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,780, this will be followed by the January 27 swing low of $2,730. The next stop below there would be $2,700.Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

23:00 South Korea FX Reserves dipped from previous 415.6B to 411B in January
South Korea FX Reserves dipped from previous 415.6B to 411B in January

22:42 Australian Dollar edges higher amid delayed tariffs and soft US data
On Tuesday, the AUD/USD rose to 0.6255 as the pair extended Monday’s comeback.

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On Tuesday, the AUD/USD rose to 0.6255 as the pair extended Monday’s comeback. The recovery comes after renewed US tariffs on China prompted by President Trump followed delays in tariffs on Canada and Mexico, the latter of which have eased trade war fears. Meanwhile, aggressive bets on a February Royal Bank of Australia (RBA) rate cut and concerns over China’s economic slowdown continue to weigh on the AUD. Daily digest market movers: Aussie up as China imposes tariffs on US President Trump first announced a 25% duty on goods from Canada and Mexico but then agreed to postpone these tariffs for a month, easing immediate trade tensions. In tandem, a 10% tariff on Chinese imports remains in effect, while China has signaled it will contest these measures at the WTO. The US Dollar experienced volatility after a brief rally that pushed the Dollar Index toward three-week highs near 110.00 and then fell toward 108.00. On the data front, JOLTS Job Openings fell to 7.6 million in December, missing the 8 million consensus estimate. On the home front, Australian CPI data for December is anticipated to show subdued inflation, forecast at around 2.5% YoY compared to 2.8% previously, which has bolstered market bets on a 25 bps RBA rate cut in February. However, persistent concerns over China's weak recovery and sluggish domestic economic momentum continue to weigh on the Aussie. Broader market risk sentiment remains cautious following recent volatility in global equity and bond markets, while renewed geopolitical concerns and technology sector sell-offs have also added safe-haven demand for the US Dollar. AUD/USD technical outlook: Bulls step on the gas, outlook improvesThe AUD/USD pair edged up to 0.6255 on Tuesday as it navigated within a narrow trading range between 0.6200 and 0.6300. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 53, positioned in positive territory and rising sharply, which signals growing buying interest. Simultaneously, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram displays green bars, suggesting that while bullish momentum is emerging, it is still tempered by prevailing market uncertainties. With support firmly established near 0.6200 and resistance around 0.6300, a break either way will dictate the pace of the pair. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

21:54 Forex Today: More Fedspeak and the ADP report take centre stage
The US Dollar shed further ground on Tuesday as market participants continued to evaluate the US tariffs narrative and the potential retaliatory measures by China.

The US Dollar shed further ground on Tuesday as market participants continued to evaluate the US tariffs narrative and the potential retaliatory measures by China.Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, February 5: The US Dollar Index (DXY) failed to regain upside impulse, keeping the trade well above the 108.00 barrier amid tariffs concerns and higher US yields. The ADP Employment Change report will gather all the looks seconded by MBA’s Mortgage Applications, the final S&P Global Services PMI, the ISM Services PMI, and the EIA’s weekly report on US crude oil stockpiles. In addition, the Fed’s Jefferson, Barkin, Goolsbee, and Bowman are all due to speak. EUR/USD picked up a strong pace and reversed six days of losses, advancing to the vicinity of the key 1.0400 mark on Tuesday. The final HCOB Services PMIs in Germany and the euro area are due, seconded by Producer Prices in the bloc and the speech by the ECB’s Lane.GBP/USD added to Monday's advance and revisited the boundaries of the key 1.2500 barrier on the back of the persistent offered bias in the Greenback. All the attention will be on the publication of the final S&P Global Services PMI. USD/JPY kept the erratic performance well in place, reversing Monday’s retracement and revisiting the 155.50 zone. The final Jibun Bank Services PMI and Average Cash Earnings will be released. AUD/USD rebounded from Monday’s multi-year lows. Although it failed to extend the bounce further north of the 0.6260 region, it printed marked gains for the day. The Ai Group Manufacturing Index is next on tap in Oz. WTI prices managed to stage a marked comeback after hitting new lows near the $70.00 mark per barrel, eventually ending the day with humble gains. Gold prices rose to an all-time high around $2,840 per ounce troy amid the Dollar’s pullback and steady jitters surrounding Trump’s tariffs plan. Silver prices gathered extra steam and surpassed the $32.00 level per ounce for the first time since mid-December.

21:50 Fed's Daly: Fed is positioned to wait and see
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly noted on Tuesday that the Fed is firmly planted in wait-and-see mode, specifically noting the chilling effect that economic uncertainty has on policymaking.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly noted on Tuesday that the Fed is firmly planted in wait-and-see mode, specifically noting the chilling effect that economic uncertainty has on policymaking. Key highlights The economy is in a very good place. There is continued momentum in the economy though there is uncertainty. The Fed can take its time to look at data and policy changes. Business contacts are optimistic. We have to make sure we get inflation down, the Fed has not finished the job on inflation yet. The Fed is in a good position to wait and see. Businesses are bullish about the use of AI and a sense it will improve productivity.

21:04 US Dollar retreats as China places tariffs on US goods
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against a basket of currencies, loses momentum on Tuesday after struggling to revisit the 110.00 level and declined below 108.00.

20:56 Mexican Peso wavers amid US tariff delays, strong US data
The Mexican Peso (MXN) registered losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, but still it remains up in the week after United States (US) President Donald Trump delayed tariffs on Mexico, following discussions held with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum.

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The USD/MXN trades at 20.47, up 0.74% The USD/MXN pair has found strong support near the 20.30 area despite losing over 1.30% on Monday. Yesterday, the US and Mexico reached an agreement to pause tariffs a month from now, as President Sheinbaum compromised to increase security at the border to stop drug traffic and illegal migration. Investors cheered the news as risk appetite improved, and the Mexican currency finished strong in Monday’s session. In addition, Mexico’s economic data revealed that January’s Business Confidence improved, though business activity contracted, according to S&P Global. Manufacturing activity contracted for the seventh straight month in January, indicating that the economy is slowing down. Meanwhile, US job openings dropped by the most in 14 months, according to US Department of Labor data. The data revealed that the labor market and the economy remain strong, keeping the Federal Reserve (Fed) on hold at least until June. Given the backdrop, further upside in the USD/MXN is seen, though traders must be aware of Fed official speakers during the rest of the day. Ahead in the week, Banco de Mexico (Banxico) is expected to cut rates by Thursday. Uncertainty surrounds the size of the cut, as some Central Bank officials had opened the door for larger than a quarter of a percentage point of easing. Daily digest market movers: Mexican Peso on the defensive as the Greenback counterattacks Mexico's Business Confidence deteriorated slightly from 52.0 in December to 51.4 in January, revealed the Instituto Nacional de Estadistica Geografia e Informatica (INEGI). The manufacturing sub-component grew from 51.4 to 51.7 for the same period. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in January dropped from 49.8 to 49.1, showing that manufacturing activity is slowing down. Pollyanna De Lima, Economics Associate Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “Mexican manufacturers began 2025 on a weaker footing, going deeper into retrenchment mode as current demand conditions and a bleak outlook prompted them to seek cost savings and protect cashflows.” Banxico’s private economists survey showed that Mexico’s economy is expected to grow by 1% in 2025, down from 1.2% in December. Inflation is expected to tick higher from 3.80% to 3.83%, while core prices are foreseen at 3.74%, up from 3.72%. Economists estimate the USD/MXN pair exchange rate to finish the year at 20.90, up from 20.53 in December, and estimate 150 basis points of easing from Banxico. US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) in December dipped from 8.156 million to 7.6 million, below estimates of 8 million. Money market fed funds rate futures are pricing in 48 basis points (bps) of easing by the Federal Reserve in 2025. USD/MXN technical outlook: Mexican Peso weakens past 20.50 as buyers target 20.90 The USD/MXN has recovered after hitting a five-day low of 20.39 as Trump paused tariffs on Mexico. During the North American session, the exchange rate climbed above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 20.42, opening the door for further upside. A daily close above the psychological 20.50 area could pave the way to test the previous yearly high of 20.90. If surpassed, look for the current year’s high at 21.29. Conversely, if sellers push USD/MXN below 20.30, it could fall to the 100-day SMA at 20.15. ahead of the 20.00 figure.Mexican Peso FAQs What key factors drive the Mexican Peso? The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity. How do decisions of the Banxico impact the Mexican Peso? The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. How does economic data influence the value of the Mexican Peso? Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Mexican Peso? As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

20:46 Canadian Dollar slams back into familiar territory as markets recover
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) surged on Tuesday after market sentiment recovered from a bout of tariff fears, sending the Canadian Dollar just high enough to crash back into familiar consolidation territory after a brief test of two-decade lows.

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A stiff 25% tariff on all Canadian goods and a 10% import fee on Canadian energy products was waved off for 30 days by US President Donald Trump on Monday. The US has agreed to temporarily suspend its plans to tax its own citizens for demanding Canadian-made goods, which includes approximately 60% of all US-consumed fuel and roughly 40% of all vehicles purchased. With a third kick of the can on President Trump’s tariffs, investors will likely view any further threats of import tariffs as simply a strongarm measure for Donald Trump to secure concessions from key trade allies with the US, most of which were already agreed to with the previous US administration. Daily digest market movers: Canadian Dollar recovers ground post-tariff rout The Canadian Dollar rebounded 1.55%, sending USD/CAD back into consolidation range. US trade tariffs on Canada have been waived for 30 days. Investors are likely to disregard future tariff threats as pure posturing, limiting their effectiveness in the future. Canadian labor figures are due later this week, slated for Friday. The Canadian Unemployment Rate is expected to tick higher to 6.8% from 6.7%, and the Net Change in Employment is expected to ease to 25K from 90.9K in January. Canadian labor prints are likely to be entirely overshadows by US Nonfarm Payrolls figures due at the same time. US NFP net job gains are expected to ease to 170K from 256K, and back-dated revisions are also expected. Canadian Dollar price forecast The Canadian Dollar’s crash-and-bounce sent USD/CAD briefly to two-decade highs near 1.4800 before correcting sharply back below the 1.4400 handle on Tuesday. Despite firm gains behind the Loonie, Tuesday’s correction was only enough to plant USD/CAD back into its recent consolidation range between 1.4300 and 1.4500. Price action continues to grind into a familiar pattern, albeit with quick spikes in either direction as the pair muddles along the midrange. USD/CAD daily chartCanadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

19:28 Dow Jones Industrial Average holds steady as markets brush off tariffs
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is testing the 44,450 region on Tuesday, with equities slowing their recent pace of volatility as United States (US) President Donald Trump walks back nearly all of his recent trade war blustering and kicks his self-imposed tariff can down the road for a third time.

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US import tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada have been delayed for up to 30 days, while planned tariffs on China are still on the table and warnings of tariffs on goods from the European Union are also in the pipe. Despite all the trade war bluster, the Trump administration's three straight walkbacks have left investors with a strong sense that the tariffs were never meant to be an implemented part of the US’ trade strategy. Instead, they were President Trump’s best efforts to work twice as hard to accomplish half as much, strong-arming some of America’s closest trading partners to the negotiating table and obtaining concessions that were largely already agreed to with the previous US federal administration. Tariff threats are likely to be treated less seriously by markets moving forward as investors focus on material issues. US JOLTS Jobs Openings figures from December printed on Tuesday, showing a slight cooling to 7.6M from 8.09M. JOLTS has an abysmally low respondent rate of around 30%, and December’s print is also a preliminary figure, due for a number of revisions throughout the calendar year. Regardless, the trend in patchy job openings data remains clear as the indicator grinds into two-year lows.Dow Jones news Over two-thirds of the Dow Jones equity board is testing into the high side on Tuesday, with investor sentiment brushing off its recent overreaction to trade war gesticulations by the US. Merck & Co tumbled over 10% and fell below $90 per share despite topping Wall Street earnings expectations after the drug supplier softened its forward guidance, warning investors that demand for vaccines in China has not recovered to expected levels and will be pausing further shipments to mainland China to alleviate a supply buildup. Dow Jones price forecast A back-and-forth tussle on daily candlesticks has the Dow Jones strung along a near-term midrange, with price action hung up near the 44,500 level. Bids found a technical floor near the 44,000 major price handle this week, but topside momentum remains thin as investors struggle to climb over 45,000. A further cooling period may be required as technical oscillators churn in overbought territory. Dow Jones daily chartDow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.

18:13 EUR/USD Price Analysis: Pair gains traction, breaks above key resistance
The EUR/USD pair extended its upward movement on Tuesday, advancing to 1.0335 and showing renewed buying interest.

EUR/USD rises to 1.0335 on Tuesday, gaining bullish momentum.The pair surges past the 20-day SMA at 1.0360, signaling a potential trend shift.RSI climbs to 50 in positive territory, while the MACD histogram remains flat with green bars.The EUR/USD pair extended its upward movement on Tuesday, advancing to 1.0335 and showing renewed buying interest. The rally helped the pair break above the critical 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.0360, a key level that had previously capped gains. This move could indicate a shift in sentiment, with buyers regaining control after recent range-bound trading. From a technical perspective, momentum indicators present a cautiously optimistic outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed to 50, confirming the return of bullish pressure. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains flat with green bars, suggesting a neutral but improving momentum stance. In the near term, if EUR/USD sustains its position above 1.0360, further gains toward 1.0400 could be expected, with additional resistance at 1.0435. On the downside, immediate support lies at 1.0320, followed by a stronger floor at 1.0280. A failure to hold above the 20-day SMA could see renewed selling pressure, keeping the broader outlook uncertain. EUR/USD daily chart

18:04 GBP/USD Price Analysis: Climbs above 1.2450 amid soft USD
The Pound Sterling (GBP) post gains versus the US Dollar (USD) for the second straight day after US President Donald Trump tariff threats on Mexico and Canada were delayed, due to negotiations beginning between the parties, aimed to improve fighting against fentanyl traffic and illegal migration.

17:07 United States RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism (MoM) below expectations (53) in February: Actual (52)
United States RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism (MoM) below expectations (53) in February: Actual (52)

17:03 New Zealand GDT Price Index climbed from previous 1.4% to 3.7%
New Zealand GDT Price Index climbed from previous 1.4% to 3.7%

17:00 United States JOLTS Job Openings below expectations (8M) in December: Actual (7.6M)
United States JOLTS Job Openings below expectations (8M) in December: Actual (7.6M)

17:00 United States Factory Orders (MoM) registered at -0.9%, below expectations (-0.7%) in December
United States Factory Orders (MoM) registered at -0.9%, below expectations (-0.7%) in December

16:49 US-China tariff war 2.0 kicks off – ABN AMRO
Global Macro: US imposes 10% China tariffs. Beijing retaliates immediately, in a targeted, measured way. 10% US tariffs not a game changer, but more could come, ABN AMRO Senior Economist Arjen van Dijkhuizen notes.

Global Macro: US imposes 10% China tariffs. Beijing retaliates immediately, in a targeted, measured way. 10% US tariffs not a game changer, but more could come, ABN AMRO Senior Economist Arjen van Dijkhuizen notes.Tariffs on China may move much higher if no agreement is reached“Immediately after the US tariffs went into effect, Beijing responded by imposing a 15% tariff on LNG and coal imported from the US, and a 10% tariff on crude oil and agricultural equipment. That is a measured, non-proportional reaction, in line with our expectations, leaves the door open for further negotiations, and does not disturb China’s commodity inflows that much. In 2024, around 6% of China’s total LNG imports came from the US, while China hardly imports any coal from the US.”“China also announced it would put Google under investigation for antitrust violations, while putting another two US firms (including PVH Corp, the owner of Calvin Klein) and widening exports controls to the US with tungsten-related materials. Beijing also stated it had filed a complaint with the World Trade Organization in response to the new US import tariffs.”“Although the first tariff implementation now seems to have come even earlier than anticipated in our Global Outlook, The Year of the Tariff, in our base case we already anticipate a material (gradual) stepping up of US import tariffs on China to an average effective tariff rate of 45% per Q2-2026. While talks between Trump and Xi may potentially smoothen the risk of a further escalation for now, Trump stated earlier this week that he sees the 10% tariffs as a first salvo, with tariffs on China potentially moving much higher if no agreement is reached.”

16:41 USD/JPY jumps above 155.00 as demand for safe-haven assets diminish
The USD/JPY pair climbs above 155.00 in Tuesday’s North American session.

16:10 EUR/GBP: Monday’s low around 0.8250 might out of sight for now – Rabobank
GBP has unwound some of the gains it made against the EUR yesterday indicating that the market is not convinced that the pound is a robust hedge against the likelihood of a step up in trade tensions between the EU and the US, Rabobank’s FX analyst Jane Foley notes.

GBP has unwound some of the gains it made against the EUR yesterday indicating that the market is not convinced that the pound is a robust hedge against the likelihood of a step up in trade tensions between the EU and the US, Rabobank’s FX analyst Jane Foley notes.MPC to tweak its language to reflect growing downside risks“Of course, the 30 days reprieve that the Trump administration granted to both Canada and Mexico yesterday suggest that the President may not be willing to slap harsh tariffs on his allies. While this may have allowed a collective sigh of relief in Europe in addition to Canada and Mexico, Trump’s rhetoric towards the EU has been clear. On Sunday he stated that he would definitely impose tariffs on the EU, describing the bloc’s trade deficit with the US as an atrocity.”“While GBP has re-priced this year to take account of a poorer UK growth and budget outlook than was expected at the time of last year’s July election, Germany and France have their own structural issues. Our central view remains that EUR/GBP can edge gently lower this year, though the January sell-off has shaken our faith in the pound. Near-term, the BoE policy meeting is also in view.” “In addition to the politics, the markets also have the BoE meeting in view this week. The Bloomberg survey shows that all but two forecasters are expecting a 25 bps rate cut from the MPC this week. While we expect the MPC to maintain its gradual approach to policy easing, we anticipate some language tweaks to reflect growing downside risks, which could weigh on the pound in the short-term and push yesterday’s low around EUR/GBP0.8250 out of sight for now. Rabobank’s foresees four 25bp cuts in 2025.”

15:56 United States Redbook Index (YoY) rose from previous 4.9% to 5.7% in January 31
United States Redbook Index (YoY) rose from previous 4.9% to 5.7% in January 31

15:42 AUD/USD Price Forecast: Recovers above 0.6200 as US Dollar gives up gains
The AUD/USD pair rebounds sharply above the round-level figure of 0.6200 in Tuesday’s North American session.

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The Aussie pair recovers as the US Dollar (USD) gives up its intraday gains on the back of United States (US) President Donald Trump’s decision to push the order to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico on hold for 30 days. This scenario has resulted in a decline in the risk-premium of the US Dollar, given its safe-haven feature. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, drops to near 108.50 after a short-lived recovery move to near 109.00. However, Trump’s decision to put 10% tariffs on China has come into effect, which keeps fears of a trade war intact. In retaliation, China has also announced tariffs on the US, which will be executed in February. This has negatively impacted the Australian Dollar’s (AUD) outlook, given that the currency is a proxy for China’s economic status. Investors expect that an absence of immediate execution of tariffs by China suggests that the economy is continuing to negotiate with Trump. This week, the major trigger for the US Dollar will be the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for January, which will be released on Friday. Market participants expect the official employment data to influence speculation for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy guidance. AUD/USD posts a fresh four-year low around 0.6100. The 20-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 0.6375 slopes downwards, suggesting that the overall trend is bearish. The 14-week Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the 20.00-40.00 range, indicating a strong bearish momentum. More downside would appear if the pair breaks below the immediate support of 0.6100, which would let it towards the psychological support of 0.6000 and 26 March 2020 low of 0.5870. On the flip side, a sustenance move above the January 13 high of 0.6330 will open doors to the round-level resistance of 0.6400 and the December 5 high of 0.6456 AUD/USD weekly chartAustralian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

15:02 GBP down modestly on the session – Scotiabank
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is trading down a little on the session after a two-cent rebound from yesterday’s intraday low and stretch gains against the EUR to retest the mid-0.82 zone on the cross, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is trading down a little on the session after a two-cent rebound from yesterday’s intraday low and stretch gains against the EUR to retest the mid-0.82 zone on the cross, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.40-day MA caps recovery for GBP/USD“The UK’s exposure to US tariffs is somewhat less than the Eurozone’s which should allow the GBP to outperform on the cross in the coming weeks and months. But the UK government will have to balance its ambitions to rebuild ties with Europe against the need to stay as close as possible with President Trump very carefully.”“GBP’s reversal from yesterday’s intraday low stalled around 1.2450, the 40-day MA which has been curbing GBP gains since Early December. Sterling’s technical position looks potentially positive— certainly relative to its peers—but more work needs to be done to bolster upside potential. Near-term gains above 1.25 would add to short-term bull momentum. Support is 1.2350/75.”

14:59 EUR is bracing for tariff focus to fall on EU – Scotiabank
Eurozone officials are bracing for Trump’s tariff focus to turn to the EU shortly, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Eurozone officials are bracing for Trump’s tariff focus to turn to the EU shortly, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.EUR is trading off lows“Hefty tariffs would prove significantly costly for the EU in growth terms. Officials are hoping a negotiated settlement can be reached but are prepared to retaliate. The EUR is underperforming slightly on the day, reflecting concerns that after Mexico, Canada and China, Europe will be next on the tariff hit list.”“Spot set a new cycle low near 1.0140 yesterday before rising strongly and closing net higher on the day. A major bull ‘hammer’ signal on the chart would ordinarily point to a deep reversal in recent weakness but scope for EUR gains is likely limited for now. Support is 1.0250/55. Resistance is 1.0450.”

14:57 CAD steadies after hugely volatile Monday – Scotiabank
USD/CAD peaked just under 1.48 yesterday and traded back to a little under 1.44 just before the close in one of the wildest days of spot movement since the GFC, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

USD/CAD peaked just under 1.48 yesterday and traded back to a little under 1.44 just before the close in one of the wildest days of spot movement since the GFC, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.CAD may slip back into old range“There is clearly a strong sense of relief that tariffs have been avoided—for now—but the uncertainty about the Trump team’s goals will remain. The CAD can perhaps settle into a trading range in the short run as markets assess the lie of the tariff land in the next few weeks but scope for CAD gains will remain limited.”“Canadian yields have firmed up a little from yesterday’s levels, when markets were seriously mulling the risk of an off-cycle BoC rate cut, but spreads remain a major headwind for the CAD.”“Hefty net USD losses from a major new cycle high yesterday should spell some significant, bearish technical pressure on the USD. But it likely won’t result in a major improvement in the CAD, given non-technical factors. At best, the CAD should be able to settle back into the range that prevailed through mid-December/January between 1.4250/1.4510.”

14:53 USD settles back but tariff uncertainty to persist – Scotiabank
That was exhausting. Yesterday brought a mix of news on tariffs that likely reflects the sort of swings in sentiment we will have to expect as President Trump wields the tariff hammer on the US’ main trading partners, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

That was exhausting. Yesterday brought a mix of news on tariffs that likely reflects the sort of swings in sentiment we will have to expect as President Trump wields the tariff hammer on the US’ main trading partners, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.USD eases modestly overall in calmer trade“Mexico’s President said it had an agreement for a 1-month reprieve from border-related tariffs, lifting markets, then it didn’t—apparently, according to Trump who said that nothing had been agreed. But it actually did. Canadian officials weren’t hopeful they would get a temporary pass. But then they did. President Trump said last night the 30-day stay would allow time for a final ‘economic’ deal to emerge. China announced retaliatory tariffs on a limited number of US goods as US tariffs came into effect.”“Volatile trading across all asset classes yesterday has calmed as investors take stock. Developments yesterday supported hopes that tariffs are not going to be a permanent fixture of the economic landscape. But clarity on whether tariffs are a temporary measure to obtain (limited, in yesterday’s cases) concessions or will be used to raise revenue and fund tax cuts elsewhere, as Trump has suggested—and are therefore liable to remain in place—is still lacking.”“The US Dollar (USD) traded well off the intraday high and closed net lower on the day yesterday overall. A little more softness has crept in this morning, suggesting perhaps that markets feel Trump’s tariff bark is worse than the bite – but that remains to be seen. There are more data reports from the US this morning, including JOLTS data and Factory Orders. Markets are keener on following headlines on tariff developments than tracking data, however.”

14:42 US Dollar whipsaws with China retaliating against Trump and tariffs on Canada and Mexico delayed
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is having a tough Tuesday, hitting 109.00 before falling back to the lower 108.37 level.

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US President Trump pauses Mexico and Canada tariffs while China retaliates. The US Dollar Index (DXY) tries to hold ground above 108.00 while looking for direction through tariff headlines.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is having a tough Tuesday, hitting 109.00 before falling back to the lower 108.37 level. The DXY trades around 108.50 at the time of writing. Markets are reacting to a mixture of headlines with a sigh of relief from Mexico and Canada, which saw the imposition of US tariffs delayed. Meanwhile, China has retaliated against US President Trump’s tariffs by issuing its own levies over US imported goods. The economic data calendar is taking its shape in the runup towards Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls data. The US JOLTS Job Openings report will be released later in the day and could give more insights into the tightness of the labor market. In addition, two Federal Reserve (Fed) speakers, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, will speak and might leave comments for markets to consider. Daily digest market movers: Tariff fog China has announced this Tuesday a 15% levy on less than $5 billion in US energy imports, such as Coal and Liquified Natural Gas (LNG), and a 10% fee on American Oil and agricultural equipment, and it will also investigate Google for alleged antitrust violations, Bloomberg reports. Meanwhile, Canada and Mexico are seeing US-imposed tariffs being delayed thanks to their actions to comply with US President Donald Trump. At 15:00 GMT, the monthly Factory Orders for December are due. Expectations are for a further decline of -0.7% from -0.4% in the previous month. At the same time, the TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics (TIPP) will release its monthly Economic Optimism reading for February. The consensus is for an uptick to 53, coming from 51.9. The US JOLTS Job Openings for December will be released as well. A small decrease to 8 million job openings is expected, down from 8.098 million in November. The Federal Reserve has two speakers lined up as well: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic moderates a conversation with Atlanta Mayor Andre Dickens at a National Housing Crisis Task Force meeting at Atlanta at 16:00 GMT. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will participate in the Walter E. Hoadley Annual Economic Forecast panel, hosted by the Commonwealth Club World Affairs of California at 19:00 GMT. Equities are in the red, unable to find a clear direction, having difficulties to digest the string of tariff headlines. The CME FedWatch tool projects an 86.5% chance of keeping interest rates unchanged in the Fed’s next meeting on March 19. The US 10-year yield is trading around 4.575%, up from its fresh yearly low at 4.46% seen Monday. US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Moves and counter-movesThe US Dollar Index (DXY) is all over the place, though zooming out, actually going nowhere. A range is defined as 107.00 on the downside and 110.00 on the upside. Expect to see the DXY keeping range trading between these two bigger levels for now. On the upside, the first barrier at 109.30 (July 14, 2022, high and rising trendline) was briefly surpassed but did not hold on Monday. Once that level is reclaimed, the next level to hit before advancing further remains at 110.79 (September 7, 2022, high). On the downside, the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 107.75 and the October 3, 2023, high at 107.35 acts as a double support to the DXY price. For now, that looks to be holding, though the Relative Strength Index (RSI) still has some room for the downside. Hence, look for 106.52 or even 105.89 as better levels. US Dollar Index: Daily Chart US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.

13:54 USD/MXN rebounds to near 20.50 as Mexican Peso erases some gains
The USD/MXN pair bounces back to near $20.50 in Tuesday’s European session after nosediving from Monday’s high of 21.29.

12:51 USD/CAD trades cautiously above 1.4400 as Trump delays tariffs on Canada
The USD/CAD pair trades with caution around 1.4430 in Tuesday’s European session.

12:42 USD/CNH: Likely to trade between 7.2950 and 7.3400 – UOB Group
Outlook is mixed; USD is likely to trade between 7.2950 and 7.3400. In the longer run, a breach of 7.2950 would mean that USD is likely to trade in a range instead of advancing further, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Outlook is mixed; USD is likely to trade between 7.2950 and 7.3400. In the longer run, a breach of 7.2950 would mean that USD is likely to trade in a range instead of advancing further, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.Below 7.2950, USD is likely to trade in a range24-HOUR VIEW: “We expected USD to ‘rise further’ yesterday, but we pointed out that ‘overbought conditions suggest 7.4000 is unlikely to come into view.’ We did not expect the sharp drop that reached a low of 7.3020. The rapid swings have resulted in a mixed outlook. Today, we expect USD to trade between 7.2950 and 7.3400.”1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We expected ‘further advance in USD’ yesterday, but we pointed out that the 7.4000 level to provide resistance.’ USD rose to 7.3765 and then plunged to a low of 7.3020. The buildup momentum is beginning to fade, and a breach of 7.2950 (no change in ‘strong support’ level from yesterday) would mean that USD is likely to trade in a range instead of advancing further.”

12:26 Copper price forms of an Inverse Head and Shoulders – BBH
LME Copper has recently defended the ascending trend line drawn since 2022 (now at 8860), BBH analysts report.

LME Copper has recently defended the ascending trend line drawn since 2022 (now at 8860), BBH analysts report.The Head and Shoulder pattern points towards potential upside“It has formed a small base in the form of an Inverse Head and Shoulders. The pattern generally points towards potential upside. A bounce towards the neckline at 9350 can’t be ruled out; this is an important resistance. A move beyond 9350 will confirm the pattern and indicate possibility of a short-term up move. Defence of the trend line at 8860 is crucial to avert extended decline.”

12:24 USD/JPY: To trade in an erratic manner – UOB Group
US Dollar (USD) could continue to trade in an erratic manner, probably in a range of 154.50/156.00. In the longer run, for the time being, USD is likely to trade in a 153.70/156.70 range, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

US Dollar (USD) could continue to trade in an erratic manner, probably in a range of 154.50/156.00. In the longer run, for the time being, USD is likely to trade in a 153.70/156.70 range, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.USD is likely to trade in a 153.70/156.70 range24-HOUR VIEW: “Our view for USD to rise above 156.00 yesterday was incorrect. USD rose to 155.88, plummeted to 154.00 before rebounding quickly to close at 154.75. It continues to rise in early Asian trade today. We are unable to derive much from the price movements. Today, USD could continue to trade in an erratic manner, probably in a range of 154.50/156.00.”1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We indicated yesterday that ‘while short-term upward momentum is building, it is premature to expect a sustained advance.’ We added, ‘the bias is tilted to the upside, but at this time, we view any advance as part of a higher trading range of 154.30/157.20.’ USD then fell below 154.30 before rebounding strongly from 154.00. The buildup in short-term momentum has eased. From here, we expect USD to trade in a broad range, probably between 153.70 and 156.70.”

12:19 USD/CNH: Brief pullback is taking shape – BBH
USD/CNH has struggled to overcome crucial graphical hurdle of 7.37 representing highs of 2022/2023, BBH FX analysts report.

USD/CNH has struggled to overcome crucial graphical hurdle of 7.37 representing highs of 2022/2023, BBH FX analysts report.Short-term price action can remain constricted“A brief pullback is taking shape after this test. The pair has failed to defend the 50-DMA denoting lack of steady upward momentum. Recent pivot low of 7.24/7.23 is an important support zone. Short-term price action could remain constricted within limits of 7.24/7.23 and 7.37; a break beyond one of these bands would be crucial for confirming a directional move.”

12:17 Gold hits record high on Trump tariffs – ING
Gold rose to a new all-time high after US President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, driving investors to safe havens, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey notes.

Gold rose to a new all-time high after US President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, driving investors to safe havens, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey notes.Gold is at a new record high“However, the strength in the USD did provide some strong headwinds to Gold prices through the day yesterday. Despite the US coming to a deal with Canada and Mexico, which will see tariffs delayed by at least a month, the uncertainty over trade and tariffs continues to buoy Gold prices. ”“Total known Gold ETF holdings have increased by more than 590k oz this year to 83.4m oz amid a move to safe-haven assets.”

12:14 GBP: The big winner in the tariff saga – ING
The pound emerged as a safe haven among pro-cyclical currencies yesterday, and seems to be retaining some solid footing after an American trade war was averted, ING’s FX analysts Francesco Pesole notes.

The pound emerged as a safe haven among pro-cyclical currencies yesterday, and seems to be retaining some solid footing after an American trade war was averted, ING’s FX analysts Francesco Pesole notes.EUR/GBP may not return to the 0.8450 soon“The reason is simple: the UK does not have much to lose from US tariffs. UK exports to the US are less than 2% of GDP and those to China less than 1%. Incidentally, Trump seems in no rush to hit the UK with tariffs, also considering its goods trade balance with the US is arguably negligible. Trump also seemed to be on rather amicable terms with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer after a recent call.”“Another factor contributing to sterling strength was Starmer’s trip to Brussels. That was officially aimed at strengthening an EU-UK defence path, but on which markets may be double reading an intent by Starmer to gradually reconnect with the EU politically. That is inarguably positive for sterling, which remains highly sensitive to any development that can improve a worsening growth outlook.”“There are however some downside risks for the pound this week, as we expect headlines today confirming the fiscal headroom for the UK Chancellor has evaporated due to higher borrowing costs, and on Thursday the Bank of England may deliver a dovish rate cut. Still, EUR/GBP may not return to the 0.8450 January peak soon.”

12:12 NZD/USD: To trade in a range between 0.5570 and 0.5670 – UOB Group
Outlook is unclear; New Zealand (NZD) could trade in a range between 0.5570 and 0.5670. In the longer run, current price movements are likely part of a 0.5510/0.5705 range trading phase, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Outlook is unclear; New Zealand (NZD) could trade in a range between 0.5570 and 0.5670. In the longer run, current price movements are likely part of a 0.5510/0.5705 range trading phase, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.Current price movements are likely part of a range24-HOUR VIEW: “NZD fell sharply early yesterday morning. We highlighted that ‘the sharp drop in NZD this morning appears to be excessive.’ However, we held the view that NZD ‘could drop further and test 0.5510 before stabilization can be expected.’ NZD fell less than expected to 0.5517 and then jumped, closing at 0.5629 (-0.14%). The outlook is unclear after the sharp swings. Today, NZD could trade in a range, expected to be between 0.5570 and 0.5670.”1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “When NZD was at 0.5545 yesterday (03 Feb), we were of the view that ‘the risk for NZD is on the downside.’ However, we pointed out that ‘it is worth noting that 0.5510 is a significant support level, and NZD must break and remain below this level before a move to 0.5450 is likely.’ NZD subsequently dropped to 0.5517 and then, in a sudden move, surged above our ‘strong resistance’ level at 0.5630. The breach of the ‘strong resistance’ indicates that the downward pressure has faded. The current price movements appears to be part of a range trading phase, likely between 0.5510 and 0.5705.”

12:08 USD: Rethinking FX reaction functions after the trade drama – ING
To sum up yesterday’s events, the US struck a deal with Mexico first and Canada and all parties agreed to delay tariffs by at least a month.

To sum up yesterday’s events, the US struck a deal with Mexico first and Canada and all parties agreed to delay tariffs by at least a month. Trump managed to obtain greater commitment to border security from both countries, although there seemed to be limited discussion on trade, ING’s FX analysts Francesco Pesole notes.Case for a structural flow against USD appears weak“The US Dollar (USD) may not experience big rallies against directly and indirectly impacted currencies simply on the back of a tariff announcement, but only after duties effectively come to place and there are indications that they will stay. Let’s look at AUD, NZD and the China tariffs for instance. US tariffs on China are due to come into effect today, and Beijing has already announced a retaliatory 10-15% duties on US energy exports and farm equipment, coming into effect on 10 February. ”“Markets are not fully pricing out the tariff threat just yet. That’s because tariffs have been only delayed by a month, and secondly because the rollercoaster of trade news in the past few days does leave markets with a higher degree of uncertainty and unpredictability that harms high-beta currencies both due to direct protectionism exposures and due to risk sentiment implications.”“We can reasonably expect another correction in the dollar across the board if the US and China move towards a de-escalation in the coming days. But now that Trump has more concretely introduced the tariff threat into daily market news, the case for a structural flow against the dollar appears weak, and we would still expect support to DXY around 108.0. Today, the highlight in the US calendar will be December JOLTS jobs figures, although readjustments after the tariff scare should still dominate.”

12:02 EUR/USD recovers as Trump postpones tariffs on Canada and Mexico
EUR/USD bounces back from the intraday low of 1.0270 and rebounds to near 1.0350 in Tuesday’s European session.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD rebounds sharply to near 1.0350 as US President Trump postpones his ordersof tariffs on Canada and Mexico for 30 days.Trump’s intentions to impose tariffs on China remain intact.The ECB is expected to cut interest rates three times more this year.EUR/USD bounces back from the intraday low of 1.0270 and rebounds to near 1.0350 in Tuesday’s European session. The major currency pair finds buyers’ demand as United States (US) President Donald Trump’s decision to postpone tariffs on Canada and Mexico has diminished the safe-haven appeal of the US Dollar (USD). The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, surrenders its intraday gains and trades at 108.44 at the time of writing, right on track to Monday’s low of 108.40. US President Trump suspended tariff imposition on his North American partners after they agreed to cooperate to stop the flow of fentanyl. On the other hand, the president’s proposal of imposing 10% tariffs on China is still on the table, and moreover, he has even proposed to go further. "China hopefully is going to stop sending us fentanyl, and if they're not, the tariffs are going to go substantially higher," Trump said. Meanwhile, China has delivered a swift response to Trump’s tariffs with higher levies of 15% on Coal and Liquified Natural Gas (LNG), and 10% for Crude Oil, farm equipment, and some autos. Such a scenario indicates that the trade war will not go global and will remain majorly between the US and China, which has weighed on demand for safe-haven assets. On the economic front, the US Dollar will be guided by a slew of labor market-related economic indicators this week, such as JOLTS Job Openings, ADP Employment Change and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, and the US ISM Services PMI figures. The labor market data will influence market speculation for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook for the entire year. Currently, the Fed is in a waiting mode in interest rates until it sees any “real progress in inflation or at least some weakness in the labor market”. Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD recovers at US Dollar’s expense The recovery move in the EUR/USD pair has come from some weakness in the US Dollar, while the outlook for the Euro (EUR) continues to remain uncertain as investors expect the Eurozone would be the next to face lethal tariff threats by US President Trump. Over the weekend, Trump said that he will definitely impose tariffs on the Eurozone after accusing the old continent of not buying enough US cars and farm products. He added that the EU takes “almost nothing and we take everything from them”. In response to Trump’s tariff threats, French President Emmanuel Macron said that the European Union (EU) would retaliate if its interests were targeted. “If our commercial interests are attacked, Europe, as a true power, will have to make itself respected and therefore react,” Macron said, The Guardian reported. Market experts believe that trade and investment between the old continent and the US are one of the largest globally, and a trade war between them would accelerate inflation and lead to an economic disruption. Higher Eurozone inflation would also create troubles for the European Central Bank (ECB), which is on the policy expansion path amid confidence that price pressures will sustainably return to the central bank’s target of 2% this year. The ECB reduced its Deposit Facility rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.75% and guided that the monetary policy path is clear. Traders are confident that the ECB will deliver three more interest rate cuts by the summer. Technical Analysis: EUR/USD rebounds from 1.0210EUR/USD recovers from its three-week low of 1.0210 to trade near 1.0350 on Tuesday, but is still trading below the 20-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) around 1.0379 and 1.0439, respectively, suggesting a bearish trend. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds above 40.00. A bearish momentum could trigger if the RSI breaks below that level. Looking down, the January 13 low of 1.0177 and the round-level support of 1.0100 will act as major support zones for the pair. Conversely, the psychological resistance of 1.0500 will be the key barrier for the Euro bulls. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

11:55 Spain 12-Month Letras Auction down to 2.221% from previous 2.367%
Spain 12-Month Letras Auction down to 2.221% from previous 2.367%

11:55 Spain 6-Month Letras Auction declined to 2.355% from previous 2.535%
Spain 6-Month Letras Auction declined to 2.355% from previous 2.535%

11:46 Gold consolidates as US-China trade war fears escalate
Gold’s price (XAU/USD) consolidates its recent move to new all-time highs and looks for direction on Tuesday after China retaliated against US tariffs issued over the weekend.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold printed a fresh record high at $2,830.70 on Monday.China retaliates and issues tariffs on US imports as countermeasures. Gold faces stretch intraday resistance levels due to the volatile move on Monday. Gold’s price (XAU/USD) consolidates its recent move to new all-time highs and looks for direction on Tuesday after China retaliated against US tariffs issued over the weekend. Beijing imposed a 15% tariff on less than $5 billion of US energy imports, such as Coal and Liquified Natural Gas (LNG), and a 10% fee on American Oil and agricultural equipment. It will also investigate Google for alleged antitrust violations. Markets are unclear on what to do with these retaliatory tariffs and are showing whipsaw patterns on Tuesday’s price action. On the economic data front, the calendar is light ahead of the runup to the Nonfarm Payrolls report, scheduled on Friday. On Tuesday, the JOLTS Job Openings for December could be of interest later in the day, followed by two Federal Reserve (Fed) speakers, Atlanta Fed Raphael Bostic and San Francisco Fed Mary Daly. Daily digest market movers: Tit for tatChina retaliated to US President Donald Trump’s opening trade war tariffs by targeting a handful of American companies and slapping levies on some US goods, in a move seemingly designed to avoid escalating tensions between the world’s two biggest economies, Bloomberg reports. China's response was seen as "measured and appropriate" and "targeted to send Trump a warning without hurting its own access to important commodities."The tariffs are set to kick in on February 10, potentially leaving room for negotiation. At 15:00 GMT, the December JOLTS Job Openings report is due. Expectations are that there will be a decrease to 8 million job openings, down from 8.098 million in November. At 16:00 GMT, Atlanta Fed President Raphael W. Bostic moderates a conversation with Atlanta Mayor Andre Dickens at a National Housing Crisis Task Force meeting in Atlanta. At 19:00 GMT, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly will participate in the Walter E. Hoadley Annual Economic Forecast panel, hosted by the Commonwealth Club World Affairs of California. The CME FedWatch tool shows an 86.5% chance of keeping interest rate unchanged in the March 19 meeting, compared to 13.5% for a 25 basis points rate cut. Technical Analysis: Choppyness beginsThis is where the boys will be separated from the men in trading after China counteracted on Tuesday President Trump’s tariffs slapped over the weekend. Whipsaw moves and headline-driven volatility will take over the logic price action from here on out. Stay loyal to the bigger levels, which will act as support or resistance intraday and in the longer term. The first support comes in at the $2,800 round level, followed by $2,790, which was November’s high. The low of Monday in the chaotic opening of this week at $2,772 should act as the next support. Once that level should snap, a quick sprint to $2,721 could be underway. Analysts and strategists have called for $3,000, but the region around $2,800 looks like a good starting point for profit-taking. Based on Monday’s price action, technical analysis (pivot points) shows $2,839 and $2,864 as the next daily resistance levels. These will become important, along with the logic big figures such as $2,850 and $2,880.XAU/USD: Daily Chart Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

11:28 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Tuesday, according to FXStreet data.

11:21 GBP/JPY rebounds to near 193.00 as US Dollar extends losses
The GBP/JPY cross reaches back to near 193.00 during the European session on Tuesday after recovering its daily losses.

11:06 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD bulls await move beyond $31.70-$31.75 horizontal barrier
Silver (XAG/USD) attracts buyers for the second straight day on Tuesday and sticks to its positive bias, above mid-$31.00s through the first half of the European session.

11:00 AUD/USD: Downward momentum fades – UOB Group
AUD could rise, but any advance is likely part of a higher 0.6155/0.6265 range. In the longer run, downward momentum has largely faded; AUD is expected to trade in a range between 0.6080 and 0.6310, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

AUD could rise, but any advance is likely part of a higher 0.6155/0.6265 range. In the longer run, downward momentum has largely faded; AUD is expected to trade in a range between 0.6080 and 0.6310, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.Any advance is likely part of a higher 0.6155/0.6265 range24-HOUR VIEW: “We indicated yesterday that ‘the sharp plunge today appears to be overdone.’ We pointed out that ‘there is a chance for AUD to drop further, but given the deeply oversold conditions, a sustained decline below 0.6080 appears unlikely today.’ AUD fell less than expected to 0.6089 before staging a sharp rally, reaching a high of 0.6237 in the late NY session. Today, AUD could rise, but any advance is likely part of a higher 0.6155/0.6265 range. In other words, we do not expect AUD to break clearly above 0.6265.”1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “While we indicated yesterday (03 Feb, spot at 0.6140) that AUD ‘is under pressure’, we also indicated that ‘it is too early to determine if there is enough momentum for AUD to drop towards the significant support level at 0.6000.’ AUD subsequently dropped to 0.6089 before reversing sharply, breaking above our ‘strong resistance’ level of 0.6230 (high has been 0.6237). Downward momentum has largely faded. For now, we expect AUD to trade in a range, probably between 0.6080 and 0.6310.”

11:00 US JOLTS job openings expected to decline slightly in December
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) will be released on Tuesday by the United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

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The publication will provide data about the change in the number of job openings in December, alongside the number of layoffs and quits. JOLTS data is scrutinized by market participants and Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers because it can provide valuable insights into the supply-demand dynamics in the labor market, a key factor impacting salaries and inflation. Job openings have been declining steadily since coming in above 12 million in March 2022, indicating a steady cooldown in labor market conditions. In September, the number of jobs declined to 7.44 million, marking the lowest reading since January 2021, before rising to 7.8 million and 8.09 million in October and November, respectively. What to expect in the next JOLTS report? Markets expect job openings to be around 8 million on the last business day of December. Following the January policy meeting, the Federal Reserve (Fed) noted that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace, with the unemployment rate stabilizing at low levels and labor market conditions staying robust. In the post-meeting press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that the labor market seemed to be broadly in balance. It is important to note that while the JOLTS data refers to the end of December, the official Employment report, which will be released on Friday, measures data for January. In December, Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 256,000, surpassing the market expectation for an increase of 160,000 by a wide margin. Commenting on the employment situation in the US, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said: “We will have to process if retail gains were a strong holiday season or something more general.” He added that he does not see the job market as a source of inflation. The CME FedWatch Tool currently shows that markets are pricing in a less-than-15% probability of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut in March. Although the job openings data is unlikely to influence the Fed rate outlook, a significant negative surprise, with a reading at or below 7 million, could weigh on the US Dollar (USD) with the immediate reaction. On the other hand, the market positioning suggests that the USD doesn’t have a lot of room on the upside even if the data comes in better than forecast. "Over the month, hires and total separations were little changed at 5.3 million and 5.1 million, respectively," the BLS said in its November JOLTS report. "Within separations, quits (3.1 million) decreased, but layoffs and discharges (1.8 million) changed little." Related newsSeven Fundamentals for the week: Trump's opening salvo in a trade war casts shadow over Nonfarm Payrolls The week ahead: Tariffs, the Bank of England and Nonfarm Payrolls Full-blown trade war 'may have only just begun' as investors fear global growth slowdown in 2025When will the JOLTS report be released and how could it affect EUR/USD? Job opening numbers will be published on Tuesday at 15:00 GMT. Eren Sengezer, European Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, shares his technical outlook for EUR/USD: “EUR/USD returned within the descending regression channel coming from late September after failing to stabilize above its upper limit. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart dropped below 40, reflecting a buildup of bearish momentum.” On the downside, 1.0200 (mid-point of the descending channel) aligns as immediate support before 1.0100 (round level) and 1.0000 (psychological level, lower limit of the ascending channel). Looking north, first resistance could be spotted at 1.0400 (50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), upper limit of the descending channel) before 1.0500 (static level) and 1.0640 (100-day SMA).” US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

10:54 Natural gas prices in Europe remain supported – ING
European natural gas prices remain well supported with TTF settling a little more than 1% up on the day at EUR53.79/MWh, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey notes.

European natural gas prices remain well supported with TTF settling a little more than 1% up on the day at EUR53.79/MWh, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey notes.Unplanned outages in Norway add to supply concerns“Concerns over the quicker-than-expected draw in EU storage continue to support the market. EU storage is now a little under 53% full, below the 69% seen at the same stage last year and below the five-year average of 60%. However, the EU met its intermediary target of having storage at least 50% full by 1 February.”“In addition, some unplanned outages in Norway have only added to supply concerns. However, Russian flows via Turkstream were stronger over January with flows totalling 1.4bcm, up 1.7% MoM and up 26% YoY.”

10:49 GBP/USD: Unlikely to break clearly above 1.2475 – UOB Group
Rapid rise has scope to extend, but any advance is unlikely to break clearly above 1.2475. In the longer run, for the time being, GBP is expected to trade in a range of 1.2245/1.2530, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Rapid rise has scope to extend, but any advance is unlikely to break clearly above 1.2475. In the longer run, for the time being, GBP is expected to trade in a range of 1.2245/1.2530, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.GBP is expected to trade in a range of 1.2245/1.253024-HOUR VIEW: “Yesterday, when GBP was at 1.2310, we indicated that ‘while the sharp drop in GBP today has scope to extend, we expect the 1.2245 level to provide support.’ GBP subsequently dropped to 1.2249 and then reversed sharply, soaring to a high of 1.2455. This time around, the rapid rise has scope to extend, but any advance is unlikely to break clearly above 1.2475. The major resistance at 1.2530 is not expected to come under threat. On the downside, support levels are at 1.2380 and 1.2330.”1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We noted early yesterday (03 Feb, spot at 1.2310) that ‘despite dropping sharply upon opening today, there has been no significant increase in downward momentum.’ However, we were of the view that GBP ‘is likely to trade with a downward bias towards 1.2245.’ GBP subsequently dropped to within a few pips of 1.2245 (low of 1.2249) and then in a sudden move, surged above our ‘strong resistance’ level of 1.2435 (high of 1.2455). Downward momentum has fizzled out, and for the time being, we expect GBP to trade in a range of 1.2245/1.2530.”

10:48 WTI falls to near $71.50 as China’s tariffs on US imports dampen market sentiment
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude Oil price continues to decline for the second consecutive day, trading near $71.50 per barrel during European hours on Tuesday.

10:42 Oil: No change to OPEC+ output policy – ING
The oil market gave back a lot of its gains yesterday after Mexico and Canada came to a deal with the US, which saw a delay in the implementation of tariffs. Both Mexico and Canada agreed to put more resources on their border to combat the flow of fentanyl to the US.

The oil market gave back a lot of its gains yesterday after Mexico and Canada came to a deal with the US, which saw a delay in the implementation of tariffs. Both Mexico and Canada agreed to put more resources on their border to combat the flow of fentanyl to the US. The delay has seen crude oil prices coming under further pressure in early morning trading today with NYMEX WTI down more than 1%, while NYMEX RBOB and ULSD are under relatively more pressure, ING’s FX analysts Francesco Pesole notes.OPEC+ recommends no change to its output policy“Unsurprisingly fears over tariffs on Canadian oil saw the differential for West Canada Select (WCS) widening relative to WTI. The differential widened by US$1.55/bbl to a discount of US$17.84/bbl yesterday – the weakest the differential has been since July 2024. The differential has been weakening for much of this year, given concerns over tariffs. Clearly, with still plenty of uncertainty over trade it would be wise for Canada to start investing in further pipeline capacity from its producing regions to its east and west coasts.”“OPEC+ held its Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting yesterday, and as widely expected the group recommended no change to its output policy. This suggests that the group is likely to go ahead with the unwinding of their additional voluntary supply cuts from April. The group is scheduled to bring back around 2.2m b/d of supply over an 18-month period starting in April. Obviously, the return of this supply will still be dependent on market conditions.”“Preliminary production numbers show that OPEC production fell by 70k b/d MoM to 27.03m b/d in January according to a Bloomberg survey. Iraq led the declines, with its output falling by 110k b/d to 4.01m b/d. This reduction was largely due to a fire at the Rumaila oilfield.”

10:38 EUR/USD: Continues to trade in a choppy manner – UOB Group
Euro (EUR) could continue to trade in a choppy manner, probably between 1.0255 and 1.0370. In the longer run, risk is for further EUR weakness; it remains to be seen if it can break and remain below 1.0100, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Euro (EUR) could continue to trade in a choppy manner, probably between 1.0255 and 1.0370. In the longer run, risk is for further EUR weakness; it remains to be seen if it can break and remain below 1.0100, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.Risk is for further EUR weakness24-HOUR VIEW: “EUR gapped lower and plummeted when it opened yesterday. We noted that ‘while it is already oversold, the weakness has not stabilized, and EUR could continue to decline.’ We pointed out ‘support levels are at 1.0175 and 1.0100, and the latter level is likely out of reach for now.’ The subsequent price movements did turn out as we expected. EUR fell to 1.0210 before soaring to close at 1.0344 (-0.17%). The volatile price action has resulted in a mixed outlook. Today, EUR could continue to trade in a choppy manner, probably between 1.0255 and 1.0370.”1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We continue to hold the same view as yesterday (03 Feb, spot at 1.0245). As indicated, ‘the risk is for further EUR weakness.’ However, we highlighted that ‘it remains to be seen if it can break and remain below 1.0100.’ Overall, only a breach of 1.0380 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level) would indicate that the weakness in EUR has stabilized.”

10:26 EUR: Don't get too excited – ING
Amid the US-Canada-Mexico tariff saga – which was the main driver of EUR/USD yesterday – eurozone flash CPI estimates for January came in slightly hotter than expected.

Amid the US-Canada-Mexico tariff saga – which was the main driver of EUR/USD yesterday – eurozone flash CPI estimates for January came in slightly hotter than expected. The core measure was unchanged at 2.7% (expected 2.6%) for a fifth consecutive month and the headline inched higher for the fourth month in a row, again challenging the ECB’s rather optimistic stance on disinflation, ING’s FX analysts Francesco Pesole notes.US-China trade deal to take EUR/USD close to 1.040“This means that upside risks remain significant to inflation, but we are still confident that the trajectory remains deflationary for the remainder of the year. We still expect rates to be cut at least to 2.0% in the eurozone. Sentiment in the eurozone has improved on the back of expectations that a deal can be struck and protectionism averted. Still, extra caution is warranted in this sense.”“If part of Trump’s motive to delay tariffs on US neighbours was domestic backlash for potential immediate economic pain for US consumers, that is not necessarily true for EU tariffs. On those, Trump can afford to play the longer game, and perhaps keep them in place for a prolonged period, making the EU feel some ‘pain’ before striking a deal. Crucially, the motives for tariffs on the EU would not be border-related, where a deal is arguably quicker to achieve as we saw yesterday, but on trade imbalances, which often require longer negotiations.”“With all this in mind, we are somewhat skeptical that the euro is bound for a major rally. Trump has already hinted the EU is next on the tariff list, and markets may probably find better value in buying the dips in currencies that have passed the protectionism peak against the euro, which is still to face the worst of it. We would expect a US-China trade deal to take EUR/USD close to 1.040, but the rally may lose steam around those levels.”

10:22 Pound Sterling retraces against USD as investors gauge consequences of US-China trade war
The Pound Sterling (GBP) declines to near 1.2400 against the US Dollar (USD) in Tuesday’s European session.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Pound Sterling drops to near 1.2400 against the US Dollar as investors worry that a trade war between the US and China could intensify.China retaliates to US President Trump’s tariffs and announces levies on various imports from the US.This week, investors will keenly focus on the BoE’s policy decision and the US NFP data.The Pound Sterling (GBP) declines to near 1.2400 against the US Dollar (USD) in Tuesday’s European session. The GBP/USD pair hits profit-booking after a strong upside in North American trading hours on Monday, following the United States (US) President Donald Trump’s decision to pause 25% tariff imposition on Canada and Mexico for 30 days. President Trump agreed to a 30-day pause in return for concessions on border and crime enforcement with the two neighboring countries, Reuters reported. The announcement led to a sharp sell-off in the US Dollar (USD). The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, retreated to 108.34 after posting a fresh over two-week high of 109.88 on Monday, but has rebounded to near 108.90 at the press time. The delay of tariff orders by the US on its North American peers has resulted in an interim relief for risk-perceived assets across the globe. However, Trump is still on with his decision of a 10% levy on China and has also threatened to go beyond. Such a scenario would limit the risk appetite of investors. In retaliation, China has also slapped tariffs on imports from the US. The Chinese finance ministry said that it would impose levies of 15% on coal and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) and 10% on crude oil, farm equipment, and some autos, according to a Reuters report. Going forward, the next trigger for the US Dollar will be the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for January, which will be released on Friday. The official employment data is expected to significantly influence market expectations for how long the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep its waiting mode on interest rates. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated last week that only “real progress in inflation or at least some weakness in labor market” could force us to make some adjustments in the monetary policy stance. In Tuesday’s session, investors will focus on the JOLTS Job Openings data for December, which will be published at 15:00 GMT. Economists expect that employers posted 8 million fresh job offers, marginally lower than almost 8.10 million in November. Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling will be influenced by BoE’s policy decision The Pound Sterling exhibits a mixed performance against its major peers on Tuesday as investors await the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy decision, which will be announced on Thursday. According to money market expectations, traders have priced in an 81 basis points (bps) interest rate reduction this year, suggesting there will be more than three 25 bps interest rate cuts by December. The first is seen coming this week, which will push borrowing rates lower to 4.50%. Meanwhile, yields on 30-year United Kingdom (UK) gilt have declined to near 5.04%, the lowest level seen in almost two weeks, in anticipation that US President Trump won’t pick a lethal trade fight with Britain. Over the weekend, Trump’s comments indicated that he is not sure about imposing tariffs on the UK and he was sure that a deal could be made as Prime Minister Keir Starmer has been "very nice". UK gilt yields had a strong run from November 29 to January 13 as investors were worried about the economic outlook on the back of potential tariff hikes from the US. Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling corrects slightly from 1.2455The Pound Sterling retraces from Monday’s high of 1.2455 to near 1.2400 on Tuesday. The GBP/USD pair returns above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 1.2400. However, the near-term outlook for Cable remains uncertain as the 50-day EMA continues to be a barrier for the Pound Sterling bulls, hovering around 1.2500. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting a sideways trend. Looking down, the January 13 low of 1.2100 and the October 2023 low of 1.2050 will act as key support zones for the pair. On the upside, the December 30 high of 1.2607 will act as key resistance. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

10:06 NZD/USD halts recovery near 0.5600 amid rising fears over US-China trade tensions
NZD/USD hovers around 0.5610 during early European trading on Tuesday, facing volatility as risk-off sentiment rises due to escalating US-China trade tensions.

10:02 Spain Unemployment Change below expectations (45.4K) in January: Actual (38.725K)
Spain Unemployment Change below expectations (45.4K) in January: Actual (38.725K)

10:01 Spain Unemployment Change below expectations (45.4K) in January: Actual (38.7K)
Spain Unemployment Change below expectations (45.4K) in January: Actual (38.7K)

10:01 Brazil Fipe's IPC Inflation dipped from previous 0.34% to 0.24% in January
Brazil Fipe's IPC Inflation dipped from previous 0.34% to 0.24% in January

09:45 France Budget Balance up to €-156.3B in December from previous €-172.49B
France Budget Balance up to €-156.3B in December from previous €-172.49B

09:14 EUR/JPY holds positive ground near 160.00 amid tariff jitters
The EUR/JPY cross edges higher to near 159.95 during the early European session on Tuesday.

09:01 Forex Today: Focus shifts to US data as Trump tariff talks inject volatility into markets
Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, February 4: Following Monday's wild fluctuations that were triggered by headlines surrounding US President Donald Trump's tariff policy, markets seem to be settling down early Tuesday.

08:30 EUR/GBP seems vulnerable near 0.8300, one-month low ahead of BoE on Thursday
The EUR/GBP cross turns lower for the third successive day following an Asian session uptick and currently trades around the 0.8300 mark, just above a near one-month low touched the previous day.

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.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/GBP remains on the back foot for the third successive day on Tuesday. Concerns about Trump’s trade tariffs and dovish ECB weigh on the Euro.The downside remains cushioned ahead of the BoE meeting on Thursday.The EUR/GBP cross turns lower for the third successive day following an Asian session uptick and currently trades around the 0.8300 mark, just above a near one-month low touched the previous day. Moreover, the fundamental backdrop seems tilted in favor of bearish traders and supports prospects for further losses. The shared currency continues with its relative underperformance in the wake of concerns that US President Donald Trump would slap tariffs on goods from the European Union. This comes on top of the European Central Bank's (ECB) dovish stance, which, to a larger extent, overshadows a rise in the Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) at an annual rate of 2.5% in January. In fact, the ECB lowered borrowing costs by 25 basis points (bps) last Thursday, as expected, and left the door open for more rate cuts by the end of this year. This is seen weighing on the Euro and validates the near-term negative outlook for the EUR/GBP cross. Traders, however, might refrain from placing aggressive bets and opt to wait for the Bank of England (BoE) meeting on Thursday. Nevertheless, the aforementioned factors support prospects for an extension of a nearly two-week-old downtrend, suggesting that any attempted recovery might still be seen as a selling opportunity and remain capped. That said, traders might still opt to move to the sidelines in the absence of any relevant macroeconomic data on Tuesday and heading into the key central bank event risk. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes. Economic Indicator BoE Interest Rate Decision The Bank of England (BoE) announces its interest rate decision at the end of its eight scheduled meetings per year. If the BoE is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises interest rates it is usually bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP). Likewise, if the BoE adopts a dovish view on the UK economy and keeps interest rates unchanged, or cuts them, it is seen as bearish for GBP. Read more. Next release: Thu Feb 06, 2025 12:00 Frequency: IrregularConsensus: 4.5%Previous: 4.75%Source: Bank of England

08:14 USD/CHF posts modest gains above 0.9100, China hits back after US tariffs take effect
The USD/CHF pair trades with mild gains around 0.9125 during the early European session on Tuesday.

07:40 China retaliates with counter-tariffs on US imports, effective February 10
China’s Commerce Ministry announced on Tuesday that It would impose 15% tariffs on US coal and liquified natural gas (LNG) imports.

China’s Commerce Ministry announced on Tuesday that It would impose 15% tariffs on US coal and liquified natural gas (LNG) imports. developing story ....

07:22 EUR/USD breaks below 1.0300 following implementation of US tariffs on China
EUR/USD extends its losing streak after surrendering daily gains, trading around 1.0280 during the Asian session on Tuesday.

07:20 USD/CAD climbs back closer to 1.4500 amid bearish Oil prices, renewed USD buying
The USD/CAD pair attracts some dip-buying near the 1.4385 region during the Asian session on Tuesday and for now, seems to have stalled the previous day's sharp retracement slide from its highest level since April 2003.

07:02 AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Key upside barrier emerges near 97.00
The AUD/JPY cross attracts some buyers to near 96.20 during the early European session on Tuesday.

06:46 Gold price stands firm near record high; overbought RSI warrants caution for bulls
Gold price (XAU/USD) trades with a positive bias around the $2,820 region during the Asian session on Tuesday and remains close to the all-time peak touched the previous day.

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Investors remain concerned about the potential economic fallout from US President Donald Trump's trade tariffs, which is seen driving flows towards the safe-haven bullion for the fourth straight day. Furthermore, expectations that Trump's protectionist policies would result in higher US inflation further benefit the precious metal's status as a hedge against rising prices. Apart from this, bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower borrowing costs twice by the end of this year suggest that the path of least resistance for the non-yielding Gold price remains to the upside. Meanwhile, Trump's decision to temporarily pause tariffs on Mexico and Canada, after striking a border security deal with both nations, boosts investors’ confidence. This is evident from a generally positive tone around the equity markets. The risk-on flow pushes the US Treasury bond yields higher and might cap the upside for the precious metal. Gold price continues to attract haven flows on the back of trade war fears US President Donald Trump's tariff plans continue to fuel concerns about a global trade war and its impact on the economy, lifting the safe haven Gold price to a fresh all-time peak on Monday. The Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index climbed from 49.3 in the previous month to 50.9 in January, beating expectations for a reading of 49.8. Additionally, the Prices Paid Index—which measures inflation—rose to 54.9 from 52.5, while the Employment Index increased to 50.3 from 45.4, and the New Orders Index improved to 55.1. This comes on top of speculations that Trump's trade tariffs could push up inflation and give the Federal Reserve less impetus to cut interest rates further, which underpins the US Dollar. The view was echoed by comments from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, who warned that uncertainty over Trump’s policies could delay the central bank’s plans to cut interest rates. Separately, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic noted on Monday that although the US labor market remains surprisingly resilient, tariff threats throw a wrench in outlook expectations. Trump's policies could push up inflation, which, along with expectations for further policy easing by the Federal Reserve, turn out to be another factor benefiting the non-yielding yellow metal. Trump temporarily paused tariffs on Mexico and Canada after striking a border security deal, which boosts investors' confidence and might cap any further move-up for the safe-haven XAU/USD. The US Dollar attracts some dip-buyers following the previous day's turnaround from the vicinity of over a two-year high and might hold back bulls from placing fresh bets around the commodity. Tuesday's US economic docket features the release of Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and Factory Orders data, which might provide some impetus to the USD and the Gold price. Gold price needs to consolidate recent strong gains before the next leg upFrom a technical perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is already flashing slightly overbought conditions on the daily chart. This makes it prudent to wait for some near-term consolidation or a modest pullback before the next leg up. That said, any corrective slide below the $2,800 immediate support might still be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited near the $2,773-2,772 horizontal resistance breakpoint. Some follow-through selling, however, could pave the way for a further decline towards the $2,755 zone en route to the $2,725-2,720 region and the $2,700 mark. On the flip side, bulls are likely to pause near the $2,830 area, or the record peak touched on Monday. Some follow-through buying, however, will set the stage for an extension of a well-established trend witnessed from the December swing low, around the $2,583 region. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.

06:37 India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices rose in India on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

06:26 USD/INR extends rally, eyes on Trump’s tariffs on China
The Indian Rupee (INR) softens on Tuesday, pressured by the stronger US Dollar (USD).

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On the other hand, US President Trump's one-month pause on tariffs against Canada and Mexico could weigh on the Greenback and provide some support to the INR. Additionally, the intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) by selling the USD might help limit the INR’s losses.

Looking ahead, traders will monitor the development surrounding Trump tariff policies. China is due to be hit with across-the-board tariffs of 10% that begin at 05:00 GMT on Tuesday. Federal Reserve (Fed) Raphael Bostic and Mary Daly are scheduled to speak later on Tuesday. Indian Rupee edges lower amid tariff jitters Late Monday, Trump said that he will pause the 25% tariffs on goods entering the United States from Mexico and Canada for one month. While Mexico and Canada have had tariffs postponed for at least 30 days, China stands alone in facing the new Trump levies. The US Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.9 in January from 49.3 in December, according to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Monday. This reading came in better than the estimation of 49.8. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said on Monday that it’s really appropriate for policy to be patient, careful, and there's no urgency for making additional adjustments, especially given all of the uncertainty. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that a very lack of clarity requires a go-slower approach on interest-rate cuts. Markets reduce expectations of rate cuts from the Fed in the wake of the tariff news, with futures pricing in just a 50% odds of two cuts this year, according to the CME FedWatch tool. USD/INR maintains its positive view, but an overbought RSI warrants caution for bulls The Indian Rupee remains weak on the day. The strong bullish outlook of the USD/INR pair remains in play as the price has broken above the trading range and is well-supported above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

Nonetheless, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) moves beyond the 70.00 mark, warranting some caution for bulls. The overbought condition suggests that further consolidation cannot be ruled out before positioning for any near-term USD/INR appreciation.

The immediate resistance level for USD/INR emerges at the 87.00 psychological mark. Sustained gains above this level could see a run to 87.28, the all-time high.

On the flip side, the initial support level emerges at 86.51, the low of January 31. . A breach of the mentioned level could drag the pair lower to the next downside target at 86.31, the low of January 28. Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.

06:10 FX option expiries for Feb 4 NY cut
FX option expiries for Feb 4 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

FX option expiries for Feb 4 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below. EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.0175 982m 1.0250 1.1b 1.0280 1.3b 1.0300 1.5b 1.0320 1.2b 1.0375 1.1b 1.0400 1.2b 1.0425 2.1b GBP/USD: GBP amounts 1.2195 525m USD/JPY: USD amounts 154.00 813m AUD/USD: AUD amounts 0.6050 1.1b 0.6225 975m 0.6275 1.9b USD/CAD: USD amounts 1.4500 801m 1.4600 796m

05:53 GBP/USD remains above 1.2400, eyes on tariff implementation on China
GBP/USD continues to gain ground for the second successive session, trading around 1.2430 during the Asian hours on Tuesday.

04:51 BoJ’s Ueda: Central bank is aiming to achieve 2% inflation, as measured by overall CPI
Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda told the Japanese parliament on Tuesday that the “BoJ is aiming to achieve 2% inflation, as measured by overall CPI, on a sustainable basis.” Additional quotes Trend inflation refers to price moves excluding one-off factors.

04:40 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD holds gains above $31.50 near two-month highs
Silver price (XAG/USD) continues its upward momentum, reaching near two-month highs and trading around $31.60 per troy ounce during Asian trading hours on Tuesday.

04:12 WTI languishes near $72.00 mark, 100-day SMA holds the key for bulls
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices extend the previous day's retracement slide from a one-week top and attract sellers for the second successive day on Tuesday.

03:31 Australian Dollar holds gains as Trump delays tariffs on Canada, Mexico
The Australian Dollar (AUD) rebounds on Tuesday, ending its six-day losing streak as the AUD/USD pair rises amid a weakening US Dollar (USD).

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian Dollar strengthened as risk sentiment improved after Trump halted tariffs on Mexico and Canada.Traders monitor the development surrounding the tariff deal with China.Trump would suspend his tariffs after both countries agreed to send 10,000 soldiers to the US border to prevent drug trafficking.The Australian Dollar (AUD) rebounds on Tuesday, ending its six-day losing streak as the AUD/USD pair rises amid a weakening US Dollar (USD). The USD depreciated after US President Donald Trump announced late Monday that he would pause tariffs on Mexico and Canada. However, market volatility remains a concern as investors closely watch developments in the ongoing tariff negotiations with China, Australia’s key trading partner. President Trump stated that he would suspend steep tariffs on Mexico and Canada after their leaders agreed to deploy 10,000 soldiers to the US border to combat drug trafficking. The tariffs on Mexico and Canada have been postponed for at least 30 days. This decision comes just two days after Trump imposed 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods and 10% tariffs on imports from China. The AUD may lose its ground due to the increased likelihood that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could consider a rate cut in February. The RBA has maintained the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 4.35% since November 2023, emphasizing that inflation must “sustainably” return to its 2%-3% target range before any policy easing. Australian Dollar appreciates due to improved risk sentiment The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the US Dollar’s value against six major currencies, stabilizes around 108.70 at the time of writing after giving up most of its gains in the previous session. Data released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Monday showed that the Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.9 in January from 49.3 in December. This reading came in better than the estimation of 49.8. The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 0.3% MoM in December, up from 0.1% in November. On an annual basis, PCE inflation accelerated to 2.6% from the previous 2.4%, while core PCE, which excludes food and energy, remained steady at 2.8% YoY for the third straight month. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized during the post-meeting press conference that the central bank would need to see “real progress on inflation or some weakness in the labor market” before considering any further adjustments to monetary policy. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned Key Square Capital Management partners a year ago that “tariffs are inflationary and would strengthen the US Dollar—hardly a good starting point for a US industrial renaissance.” However, according to the Financial Times (FT), Bessent last week advocated for new universal tariffs on US imports, proposing an initial 2.5% rate that would gradually increase. President Trump announced his threat on X (formerly Twitter) to levy 100% tariffs on BRICS nations if they attempt to introduce an alternative currency to challenge the US dollar in international trade. Australia’s Retail Sales declined by 0.1% month-on-month in December 2024, marking the first drop in nine months. Although the decline was less severe than the anticipated 0.7% contraction. The annual sales increased by 4.6% compared to December 2023. On a seasonally adjusted basis, sales rose 1.0% QoQ in the December quarter of 2024. China's Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined to 50.1 in January, down from 50.5 in December. The reading fell short of market expectations, which had anticipated a steady 50.5. ANZ, CBA, Westpac, and now National Australia Bank (NAB) all anticipate a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in February. Previously, the NAB had forecasted a rate cut in May but has now moved its projection forward to the February RBA meeting. The Reserve Bank of Australia released its January 2025 Bulletin, featuring a detailed analysis of how monetary policy changes influence interest rates in the economy and how fluctuations in interest rates impact economic activity and inflation. Australian Dollar tests nine-day EMA barrier near descending channel’s upper boundary AUD/USD hovers around 0.6210 on Tuesday, trading within the descending channel pattern on the daily chart, signaling a bearish bias. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has rebounded toward the 50 level, signaling weakening downside momentum. A breakout above the channel and a sustained move above the 50 mark on the RSI could indicate a shift toward a bullish bias. On the downside, the AUD/USD pair could test the descending channel’s lower boundary at the 0.6150 level. A break below the channel would guide the pair to navigate the region around 0.6087, the lowest since April 2020, recorded on February 3. The AUD/USD pair tests its initial barrier at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 0.6225, aligned with the upper boundary of the descending channel. AUD/USD: Daily ChartAustralian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.20% -0.13% 0.34% -0.82% -0.34% -0.37% -0.02% EUR 0.20% 0.07% 0.54% -0.61% -0.14% -0.16% 0.18% GBP 0.13% -0.07% 0.46% -0.68% -0.21% -0.23% 0.11% JPY -0.34% -0.54% -0.46% -1.14% -0.67% -0.70% -0.35% CAD 0.82% 0.61% 0.68% 1.14% 0.47% 0.45% 0.81% AUD 0.34% 0.14% 0.21% 0.67% -0.47% -0.02% 0.35% NZD 0.37% 0.16% 0.23% 0.70% -0.45% 0.02% 0.35% CHF 0.02% -0.18% -0.11% 0.35% -0.81% -0.35% -0.35% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

03:23 Japanese Yen weakens amid fading safe-haven demand after Trump delays tariffs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) drifts lower during the Asian session on Tuesday as US President Donald Trump's decision to delay plans to impose trade tariffs on Canada and Mexico dents demand for traditional safe-haven assets.

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Worries about Trump’s trade tariffs further seem to undermine the JPY.The divergent BoJ-Fed expectations should help limit losses for the JPY. The Japanese Yen (JPY) drifts lower during the Asian session on Tuesday as US President Donald Trump's decision to delay plans to impose trade tariffs on Canada and Mexico dents demand for traditional safe-haven assets. Adding to this worries that Japan will also be an eventual target for Trump's tariffs further seem to undermine the JPY and lift the USD/JPY pair back closer to the mid-155.00s. Any meaningful JPY depreciation, however, seems limited amid bets that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hike rates further. This marks a big divergence in comparison to expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower borrowing costs twice by the end of this year. The resultant narrowing rate differential between Japan and the US should contribute to limiting losses for the lower-yielding JPY. Japanese Yen is pressured by Trump’s decision to delay tariffs; BoJ rate hike bets favor bulls Investors took a sigh of relief after US President Donald Trump agreed to delay 25% trade tariffs against Canada and Mexico by 30 days, undermining the safe-haven Japanese Yen. Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is set to meet with Trump later this week and their conversation may provide more hints about the risk of tariffs as Japan has a large trade surplus with the US. Japan's Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said on Monday that the government intends to monitor the impact of Trump's new tariffs on its currency amid worries about the potential economic fallout. Bank of Japan's Summary of Opinions released on Monday showed board members agreed that it will be necessary to continue hiking interest rates if economic activity and prices remain on track. Moreover, a rise in core inflation in Japan's capital city Tokyo, by the fastest annual pace in nearly a year, keeps alive expectations for further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. The Institute of Supply Management's (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index climbed from 49.3 in the previous month to 50.9 in January, beating expectations for a reading of 49.8. Additionally, the Prices Paid Index—which measures inflation—rose to 54.9 from 52.5, while the Employment Index increased to 50.3 from 45.4, and the New Orders Index improved to 55.1. This comes on top of speculations that Trump's trade tariffs could push up inflation and give the Federal Reserve less impetus to cut interest rates further, which underpins the US Dollar. The view was echoed by comments from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, who warned that uncertainty over Trump’s policies could delay the central bank’s plans to cut interest rates. Separately, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic noted on Monday that although the US labor market remains surprisingly resilient, tariff threats throw a wrench in outlook expectations. Meanwhile, Fed governor Michelle Bowman said on Friday that rate cuts are still expected this year but added that future moves should be cautious and gradual, with time to assess data. Traders now look forward to the US economic data – Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and Factory Orders – for short-term opportunities later during the North American session. USD/JPY pair might continue to face stiff resistance and remain capped near the 156.00 markFrom a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair might continue to confront stiff resistance near the 156.00 mark. This is closely followed by last week's swing high, around the 156.25 region, above which spot prices could climb to the 156.75 supply zone. Some follow-through buying, leading to a subsequent strength beyond the 157.00 round figure, will shift the bias in favor of bullish traders and pave the way for a move towards reclaiming the 158.00 mark with some intermediate hurdle near the 157.50 area. On the flip side, weakness below the 155.00 psychological mark now seems to find support near the 154.65 region ahead of the 154.30 area, the 154.00 round figure, and the 153.70 zone, or over a one-month low touched in January. A convincing break below the said support levels could make the USD/JPY pair vulnerable to accelerate the fall towards the 153.00 mark en route to the 152.60-152.55 region and the 152.30 area. The latter represents the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and should act as a strong base for spot prices. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.

03:02 Ireland Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing climbed from previous 49.1 to 51.3 in January
Ireland Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing climbed from previous 49.1 to 51.3 in January

02:52 White House unveils plan to set up sovereign wealth fund
The White House said in a statement late Monday that US President Donald Trump signed an executive order to begin developing a US government-owned investment fund, per Reuters.

The White House said in a statement late Monday that US President Donald Trump signed an executive order to begin developing a US government-owned investment fund, per Reuters. Additional takeaways The fund could be used to profit from TikTok if an American buyer is found. TikTok has until early April to secure an approved partner or buyer. Trump wants the US to take a 50% stake in TikTok. TikTok is cited as an example of a potential asset for the new sovereign wealth fund. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary nominee Howard Lutnick will lead efforts to establish the fund, which may need congressional approval. Market reaction As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is recovering at around 108.70, up 0.28% on the day.

02:07 NZD/USD rebounds above 0.5600, all eyes turn to Trump’s China tariff
The NZD/USD pair recovers some lost ground to near 0.5630 during the early Asian session on Tuesday.

02:00 Japan Monetary Base (YoY) declined to -2.5% in January from previous -1%
Japan Monetary Base (YoY) declined to -2.5% in January from previous -1%

01:43 EUR/USD trims losses but still sheds weight
EUR/USD dropped sharply following fresh tariff threats from US President Donald Trump, impacting the markets.

01:29 GBP/USD whipsaws as tariffs come and go
GBP/USD sewered after a batch of fresh tariff threats from US President Donald Trump hit the markets, but plunges across global risk markets clawed back to recover ground after looming US tariffs on Canada and Mexico gave way to 30-day concessions from the Trump administration.

01:04 USD/CAD falls to near 1.4400 as Trump delays Canada tariffs 30 Days
The USD/CAD pair tumbles to near 1.4410 during the late American session on Monday.

01:03 Fed's Goolsbee: Uncertainty warrants pause in rate cuts
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee noted during a radio interview during the late Monday session that economic uncertainty is exactly the type of thing that would trigger a pause in future rate cuts.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee noted during a radio interview during the late Monday session that economic uncertainty is exactly the type of thing that would trigger a pause in future rate cuts. Key highlights Fed's Goolsbee: uncertainties warrant caution in rate cuts. Goolsbee warns of possible inflation increase. Goolsbee sees need for cautious rate cuts. Fiscal decisions impacting prices or employment require careful consideration. Goolsbee warns of possible inflation resurgence. Consumer activity has been robust. Goolsbee remains concerned about inflation. Hard to distinguish between rising prices signaling overheating or tariffs' one-time effect. Should slow pace of rate cuts due to uncertainty. US consumer remains strong, not showing signs of slowing down. Concerns are emerging from businesspeople in contact with the Fed, including automakers and industry.

00:55 Canadian PM Trudeau: US tariffs on Canada to be delayed 30 days
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced late Monday that a tit-for-tat spat of trade tariffs between the US and Canada would be suspended for 30 days as the two countries agree to meet at the negotiating table.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced late Monday that a tit-for-tat spat of trade tariffs between the US and Canada would be suspended for 30 days as the two countries agree to meet at the negotiating table. This follows a similar deal between the US and Mexico where a similar tariff was imposed in an effort to bully both Mexico and Canada to the table in order for US President Donald Trump to renegotiate his own renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which was rebranded the USMCA trade deal after Donald Trump forced a renegotiation of the trilateral trade agreement during his first term. Key highlights Delay in US tariffs for 30 days. Canada's PM Trudeau: Nearly 10,000 troops to protect border. I had good call with Trump. Canada is to name a fentanyl czar. US tariffs are to be paused for at least 30 days. Trump confirms delay of Canada tariffs. Trump: Tariffs announced on Saturday will be paused for a 30-day period to see whether or not a final economic deal with Canada can be structured.

00:06 United States Total Vehicle Sales down to 15.6M in January from previous 16.8M
United States Total Vehicle Sales down to 15.6M in January from previous 16.8M

00:01 NZD/JPY Price Analysis: Pair plunges to multi-month low before partial rebound
The NZD/JPY pair saw heightened volatility on Monday, plunging to a fresh multi-month low of 85.70 before staging a partial recovery to close at 86.55.

NZD/JPY declines 0.99% on Monday, settling at 86.55 after hitting its lowest level since August 2024.The pair briefly dropped to 85.70 before bouncing back around 87.00, though it remains below the 20-day SMA at 88.00.The NZD/JPY pair saw heightened volatility on Monday, plunging to a fresh multi-month low of 85.70 before staging a partial recovery to close at 86.55. Despite the rebound, the broader outlook remains bearish, as the pair continues to struggle below key resistance levels, with the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 88.00 acting as a cap. Technical indicators suggest mixed signals regarding momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains flat at 41 in negative territory, signaling persistent selling pressure. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is printing rising red bars, which further supports the bearish thesis. Looking ahead, the pair faces immediate resistance at 87.00, and a sustained break above this level could pave the way for a move toward the 20-day SMA at 88.00. On the downside, renewed selling could push the pair back toward 85.70, with further losses potentially targeting 85.30. As long as NZD/JPY remains below the 20-day SMA, the outlook remains tilted to the downside. NZD/JPY daily chart

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Forex News Timeline

23:45 New Zealand Employment Change came in at -0.1%, above forecasts (-0.2%) in 4Q New Zealand Employment Change came in at -0.1%, above forecasts (-0.2%) in 4Q

23:45 New Zealand Unemployment Rate in line with forecasts (5.1%) in 4Q New Zealand Unemployment Rate in line with forecasts (5.1%) in 4Q

23:45 New Zealand Labour Cost Index (YoY) below expectations (3%) in 4Q: Actual (2.9%) New Zealand Labour Cost Index (YoY) below expectations (3%) in 4Q: Actual (2.9%)

23:45 New Zealand Participation Rate came in at 71%, below expectations (71.1%) in 4Q New Zealand Participation Rate came in at 71%, below expectations (71.1%) in 4Q

23:45 New Zealand Labour Cost Index (QoQ) meets forecasts (0.6%) in 4Q New Zealand Labour Cost Index (QoQ) meets forecasts (0.6%) in 4Q

23:41 United States API Weekly Crude Oil Stock came in at 5.025M, above forecasts (3.17M) in January 31 United States API Weekly Crude Oil Stock came in at 5.025M, above forecasts (3.17M) in January 31

23:39 NZD/USD Price Analysis: Kiwi climbs above 20-day SMA, signaling renewed momentum The NZD/USD pair continued its upward trajectory on Tuesday, rising 0.39% to 0.5650 and breaking above its 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).

23:32 Gold hits all-time high as US-China trade war escalates Gold reached a record high of $2,845 late Tuesday during the North American session as the US Dollar tumbled, weighed down by falling US Treasury bond yields.

23:00 South Korea FX Reserves dipped from previous 415.6B to 411B in January South Korea FX Reserves dipped from previous 415.6B to 411B in January

22:42 Australian Dollar edges higher amid delayed tariffs and soft US data On Tuesday, the AUD/USD rose to 0.6255 as the pair extended Monday’s comeback.

21:54 Forex Today: More Fedspeak and the ADP report take centre stage The US Dollar shed further ground on Tuesday as market participants continued to evaluate the US tariffs narrative and the potential retaliatory measures by China.

21:50 Fed's Daly: Fed is positioned to wait and see Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly noted on Tuesday that the Fed is firmly planted in wait-and-see mode, specifically noting the chilling effect that economic uncertainty has on policymaking.

21:04 US Dollar retreats as China places tariffs on US goods The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against a basket of currencies, loses momentum on Tuesday after struggling to revisit the 110.00 level and declined below 108.00.

18:13 EUR/USD Price Analysis: Pair gains traction, breaks above key resistance The EUR/USD pair extended its upward movement on Tuesday, advancing to 1.0335 and showing renewed buying interest.

17:07 United States RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism (MoM) below expectations (53) in February: Actual (52) United States RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism (MoM) below expectations (53) in February: Actual (52)

17:03 New Zealand GDT Price Index climbed from previous 1.4% to 3.7% New Zealand GDT Price Index climbed from previous 1.4% to 3.7%

17:00 United States JOLTS Job Openings below expectations (8M) in December: Actual (7.6M) United States JOLTS Job Openings below expectations (8M) in December: Actual (7.6M)

17:00 United States Factory Orders (MoM) registered at -0.9%, below expectations (-0.7%) in December United States Factory Orders (MoM) registered at -0.9%, below expectations (-0.7%) in December

16:49 US-China tariff war 2.0 kicks off – ABN AMRO Global Macro: US imposes 10% China tariffs. Beijing retaliates immediately, in a targeted, measured way. 10% US tariffs not a game changer, but more could come, ABN AMRO Senior Economist Arjen van Dijkhuizen notes.

16:41 USD/JPY jumps above 155.00 as demand for safe-haven assets diminish The USD/JPY pair climbs above 155.00 in Tuesday’s North American session.

15:56 United States Redbook Index (YoY) rose from previous 4.9% to 5.7% in January 31 United States Redbook Index (YoY) rose from previous 4.9% to 5.7% in January 31

15:42 AUD/USD Price Forecast: Recovers above 0.6200 as US Dollar gives up gains The AUD/USD pair rebounds sharply above the round-level figure of 0.6200 in Tuesday’s North American session.

14:59 EUR is bracing for tariff focus to fall on EU – Scotiabank Eurozone officials are bracing for Trump’s tariff focus to turn to the EU shortly, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

14:57 CAD steadies after hugely volatile Monday – Scotiabank USD/CAD peaked just under 1.48 yesterday and traded back to a little under 1.44 just before the close in one of the wildest days of spot movement since the GFC, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

14:42 US Dollar whipsaws with China retaliating against Trump and tariffs on Canada and Mexico delayed The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is having a tough Tuesday, hitting 109.00 before falling back to the lower 108.37 level.

13:54 USD/MXN rebounds to near 20.50 as Mexican Peso erases some gains The USD/MXN pair bounces back to near $20.50 in Tuesday’s European session after nosediving from Monday’s high of 21.29.

12:51 USD/CAD trades cautiously above 1.4400 as Trump delays tariffs on Canada The USD/CAD pair trades with caution around 1.4430 in Tuesday’s European session.

12:26 Copper price forms of an Inverse Head and Shoulders – BBH LME Copper has recently defended the ascending trend line drawn since 2022 (now at 8860), BBH analysts report.

12:19 USD/CNH: Brief pullback is taking shape – BBH USD/CNH has struggled to overcome crucial graphical hurdle of 7.37 representing highs of 2022/2023, BBH FX analysts report.

12:17 Gold hits record high on Trump tariffs – ING Gold rose to a new all-time high after US President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, driving investors to safe havens, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey notes.

12:14 GBP: The big winner in the tariff saga – ING The pound emerged as a safe haven among pro-cyclical currencies yesterday, and seems to be retaining some solid footing after an American trade war was averted, ING’s FX analysts Francesco Pesole notes.

12:08 USD: Rethinking FX reaction functions after the trade drama – ING To sum up yesterday’s events, the US struck a deal with Mexico first and Canada and all parties agreed to delay tariffs by at least a month.

12:02 EUR/USD recovers as Trump postpones tariffs on Canada and Mexico EUR/USD bounces back from the intraday low of 1.0270 and rebounds to near 1.0350 in Tuesday’s European session.

11:55 Spain 12-Month Letras Auction down to 2.221% from previous 2.367% Spain 12-Month Letras Auction down to 2.221% from previous 2.367%

11:55 Spain 6-Month Letras Auction declined to 2.355% from previous 2.535% Spain 6-Month Letras Auction declined to 2.355% from previous 2.535%

11:46 Gold consolidates as US-China trade war fears escalate Gold’s price (XAU/USD) consolidates its recent move to new all-time highs and looks for direction on Tuesday after China retaliated against US tariffs issued over the weekend.

11:28 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Tuesday, according to FXStreet data.

11:21 GBP/JPY rebounds to near 193.00 as US Dollar extends losses The GBP/JPY cross reaches back to near 193.00 during the European session on Tuesday after recovering its daily losses.

11:06 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD bulls await move beyond $31.70-$31.75 horizontal barrier Silver (XAG/USD) attracts buyers for the second straight day on Tuesday and sticks to its positive bias, above mid-$31.00s through the first half of the European session.

11:00 US JOLTS job openings expected to decline slightly in December The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) will be released on Tuesday by the United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

10:54 Natural gas prices in Europe remain supported – ING European natural gas prices remain well supported with TTF settling a little more than 1% up on the day at EUR53.79/MWh, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey notes.

10:48 WTI falls to near $71.50 as China’s tariffs on US imports dampen market sentiment West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude Oil price continues to decline for the second consecutive day, trading near $71.50 per barrel during European hours on Tuesday.

10:26 EUR: Don't get too excited – ING Amid the US-Canada-Mexico tariff saga – which was the main driver of EUR/USD yesterday – eurozone flash CPI estimates for January came in slightly hotter than expected.

10:22 Pound Sterling retraces against USD as investors gauge consequences of US-China trade war The Pound Sterling (GBP) declines to near 1.2400 against the US Dollar (USD) in Tuesday’s European session.

10:06 NZD/USD halts recovery near 0.5600 amid rising fears over US-China trade tensions NZD/USD hovers around 0.5610 during early European trading on Tuesday, facing volatility as risk-off sentiment rises due to escalating US-China trade tensions.

10:02 Spain Unemployment Change below expectations (45.4K) in January: Actual (38.725K) Spain Unemployment Change below expectations (45.4K) in January: Actual (38.725K)

10:01 Spain Unemployment Change below expectations (45.4K) in January: Actual (38.7K) Spain Unemployment Change below expectations (45.4K) in January: Actual (38.7K)

10:01 Brazil Fipe's IPC Inflation dipped from previous 0.34% to 0.24% in January Brazil Fipe's IPC Inflation dipped from previous 0.34% to 0.24% in January

09:45 France Budget Balance up to €-156.3B in December from previous €-172.49B France Budget Balance up to €-156.3B in December from previous €-172.49B

09:14 EUR/JPY holds positive ground near 160.00 amid tariff jitters The EUR/JPY cross edges higher to near 159.95 during the early European session on Tuesday.

08:30 EUR/GBP seems vulnerable near 0.8300, one-month low ahead of BoE on Thursday The EUR/GBP cross turns lower for the third successive day following an Asian session uptick and currently trades around the 0.8300 mark, just above a near one-month low touched the previous day.

08:14 USD/CHF posts modest gains above 0.9100, China hits back after US tariffs take effect The USD/CHF pair trades with mild gains around 0.9125 during the early European session on Tuesday.

07:40 China retaliates with counter-tariffs on US imports, effective February 10 China’s Commerce Ministry announced on Tuesday that It would impose 15% tariffs on US coal and liquified natural gas (LNG) imports.

07:22 EUR/USD breaks below 1.0300 following implementation of US tariffs on China EUR/USD extends its losing streak after surrendering daily gains, trading around 1.0280 during the Asian session on Tuesday.

07:02 AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Key upside barrier emerges near 97.00 The AUD/JPY cross attracts some buyers to near 96.20 during the early European session on Tuesday.

06:46 Gold price stands firm near record high; overbought RSI warrants caution for bulls Gold price (XAU/USD) trades with a positive bias around the $2,820 region during the Asian session on Tuesday and remains close to the all-time peak touched the previous day.

06:37 India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data Gold prices rose in India on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

06:26 USD/INR extends rally, eyes on Trump’s tariffs on China The Indian Rupee (INR) softens on Tuesday, pressured by the stronger US Dollar (USD).

06:10 FX option expiries for Feb 4 NY cut FX option expiries for Feb 4 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

05:53 GBP/USD remains above 1.2400, eyes on tariff implementation on China GBP/USD continues to gain ground for the second successive session, trading around 1.2430 during the Asian hours on Tuesday.

04:40 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD holds gains above $31.50 near two-month highs Silver price (XAG/USD) continues its upward momentum, reaching near two-month highs and trading around $31.60 per troy ounce during Asian trading hours on Tuesday.

04:12 WTI languishes near $72.00 mark, 100-day SMA holds the key for bulls West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices extend the previous day's retracement slide from a one-week top and attract sellers for the second successive day on Tuesday.

03:31 Australian Dollar holds gains as Trump delays tariffs on Canada, Mexico The Australian Dollar (AUD) rebounds on Tuesday, ending its six-day losing streak as the AUD/USD pair rises amid a weakening US Dollar (USD).

03:02 Ireland Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing climbed from previous 49.1 to 51.3 in January Ireland Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing climbed from previous 49.1 to 51.3 in January

02:52 White House unveils plan to set up sovereign wealth fund The White House said in a statement late Monday that US President Donald Trump signed an executive order to begin developing a US government-owned investment fund, per Reuters.

02:07 NZD/USD rebounds above 0.5600, all eyes turn to Trump’s China tariff The NZD/USD pair recovers some lost ground to near 0.5630 during the early Asian session on Tuesday.

02:00 Japan Monetary Base (YoY) declined to -2.5% in January from previous -1% Japan Monetary Base (YoY) declined to -2.5% in January from previous -1%

01:43 EUR/USD trims losses but still sheds weight EUR/USD dropped sharply following fresh tariff threats from US President Donald Trump, impacting the markets.

01:04 USD/CAD falls to near 1.4400 as Trump delays Canada tariffs 30 Days The USD/CAD pair tumbles to near 1.4410 during the late American session on Monday.

01:03 Fed's Goolsbee: Uncertainty warrants pause in rate cuts Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee noted during a radio interview during the late Monday session that economic uncertainty is exactly the type of thing that would trigger a pause in future rate cuts.

00:55 Canadian PM Trudeau: US tariffs on Canada to be delayed 30 days Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced late Monday that a tit-for-tat spat of trade tariffs between the US and Canada would be suspended for 30 days as the two countries agree to meet at the negotiating table.

00:06 United States Total Vehicle Sales down to 15.6M in January from previous 16.8M United States Total Vehicle Sales down to 15.6M in January from previous 16.8M

00:01 NZD/JPY Price Analysis: Pair plunges to multi-month low before partial rebound The NZD/JPY pair saw heightened volatility on Monday, plunging to a fresh multi-month low of 85.70 before staging a partial recovery to close at 86.55.

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