Forex News Timeline

23:38 NZD/USD Price Analysis: Pair tumbles to fresh multi-month low before paring losses
The NZD/USD pair extended its downward trajectory on Monday, falling sharply to 0.5515, its lowest point in over a year, before managing a slight rebound to settle at 0.5595.

NZD/USD drops 0.59% on Monday, hitting 0.5515, its lowest level since October 2022.The pair staged a partial recovery to 0.5595 but remains under heavy bearish pressure.RSI stays flat in negative territory, while MACD histogram shows decreasing green bars, signaling fading bullish attempts.The NZD/USD pair extended its downward trajectory on Monday, falling sharply to 0.5515, its lowest point in over a year, before managing a slight rebound to settle at 0.5595. Despite the brief recovery, the pair remains trapped in a bearish structure, with sellers firmly in control amid persistent downside momentum. Technical indicators confirm the lack of strong buying interest. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) points down at 41 in negative territory, suggesting that selling pressure has yet to ease. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is printing decreasing green bars, pointing to waning bullish momentum and reinforcing the broader downtrend. For now, support is seen at 0.5515, and a sustained break below this level could expose further downside toward 0.5480. On the other hand, if the pair attempts a rebound, initial resistance is found at 0.5620, followed by the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 0.5630. As long as NZD/USD trades below this key threshold, the broader bearish outlook is expected to persist. NZD/USD daily chart

23:06 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD climb amid rising global trade tensions
Silver prices advance late in the North American session on Monday, up 0.71%, as trade tensions between the US, Canada, China, and the Eurozone (EU) rise.

22:35 Australian Dollar struggles amid tariff tensions but shows signs of cautious recovery
The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends its losing streak against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday as the pair tests critical support near 0.6250.

22:33 USD/CHF Price Analysis: Clings to gains as trade tensions begin to fade
The USD/CHF trims some gains after reaching a three-week high of 0.9195.

22:10 Forex Today: Fedspeak and US jobs data in the spotlight
The US Dollar kicked off the week on a strong note as market participants assessed the implementation of US tariffs over the weekend, while investors should remain focused on the US labour market data throughout this week as well as comments from Fed’s rate setters.

The US Dollar kicked off the week on a strong note as market participants assessed the implementation of US tariffs over the weekend, while investors should remain focused on the US labour market data throughout this week as well as comments from Fed’s rate setters.Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, February 4: The US Dollar Index (DXY) advanced to the boundaries of the 110.00 mark as investors digested US tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, while US yields traded in a mixed fashion. The JOLTs Job Openings will start the release of jobs-related data seconded by Factory Orders, and the API’s weekly report on US crude oil supplies. In addition, the Fed’s Musalem, and Daly are due to speak. EUR/USD plummeted to new lows in the vicinity of the 1.0200 region on the Dollar’s sharp rebound. Next on tap on the domestic calendar will be the final HCOB Services PMIs in Germany and the euro area on February 5, along with Producer Prices in the bloc and the speech by the ECB’s Lane.GBP/USD managed to bounce off lows near 1.2250 and regain the 1.2400 zone to end Monday’s session around the 1.2400 level. Across the Channel, the final S&P Global Services PMI will be released on February 5. USD/JPY started the week on the defensive and partially eroding Friday’s advance amid mixed US yields and further gains in JGB 10-year yields. Next on tap in Japan will be the final Jibun Bank Services PMI and Average Cash Earnings, all due on February 5. AUD/USD broke below the 0.6100 support to hit multi-year lows on the back of the Greenback’s rally, US tariffs, and weakness in the Chinese yuan. Next of note in Oz will be the final Judo Bank Services PMI. Prices of the barrel of WTI flirted with multi-week lows near the $72.00 mark per barrel following the stronger Greenback and US tariffs. Prices of Gold rose to an all-time peak around $2,830 per ounce troy backed by rising safe haven demand amid concerns over a potential global trade war. Silver prices rose markedly and faded Friday’s downtick, trading well north of the $31.00 mark per ounce.

22:00 GBP/USD spins in a giant circle on Monday
GBP/USD roiled on Monday, tumbling 1.5% during the overnight session before recovering back to flat for the day at the 1.2400 handle.

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Import tariffs from the US brewing into a large-scale global trade war hobbled market sentiment over the weekend. The US was geared up to impose sweeping import tariffs of 25% on Canada and Mexico, as well as an additional 10% on China, with US President Donald Trump promising to add an additional 10% levy on goods imported from the EU. However, Mexico was able to obtain a one-month reprieve from the US' tariffs, leading investors to hope that the majority of global tariffs will able to be averted by countries acquiescing to whatever Trump demands in exchange for easing tariffs. Donald Trump specifically voiced a desire for "rare earth metals" agreements from Ukraine in exchange for the US' continued help with the Russian invasion, as well as re-floating taking control of the Panama Canal, which is currently owned and controlled by the country of Panama. Trump specifically waved off the idea of tariffs on the UK, stating that it is likely that the two countries would be able to work something out, sparking a relief rally in the Pound Sterling that took Monday's bearish plunge back to flat. The Bank of England (BoE) is expected to cut interest rates later this week. However, things could change rapidly if it appears like tariffs are going to become an ongoing, globally-inflationary issue. GBP/USD price forecastGBP/USD continues to grind through a middle-ground technical stance, hung up on price action near the 1.2400 handle. However, continued tests into the low end and a general uptick in volatility this week will likely keep the Pound Sterling on the defensive as Cable continues to fall away from the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.2500. GBP/USD daily chartPound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

21:51 Gold price surges to record high amidst US tariffs
Gold price hit a record high on Monday after the US initially scheduled tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, sparking flows toward the non-yielding metal's safe-haven appeal.

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At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $2,821 above its opening price by 0.87%. Market mood has improved, yet the golden metal holds to previous gains. Tariffs have been the main driver of the markets since US President Donald Trump took office. The Greenback began the week on the front foot after the US enacted 25% tariffs on two of its largest trading partners and 10% on China. The US Dollar Index (DXY) hit a two-week high of 109.88, but news that the US is delaying tariffs on Mexico due to an agreement between both countries weighed on the Greenback, providing a leg-up in XAU/USD. In the meantime, tariffs on Canada and China remain in place, set to begin on Tuesday. However, US President Trump said he would hold talks with Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Moving to economic drivers, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) revealed that US business activity in the manufacturing sector improved. Furthermore, traders will be eyeing US data, with the release of US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) for January and Federal Reserve (Fed) officials crossing the newswires. Daily digest market movers: Gold price boosted by falling US Treasury yields The US 10-year T-note yield drops one and a half basis points to 4.537%. US real yields, as measured by the 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), are unchanged at 2.095%. The ISM Manufacturing PMI for January rose to 50.9, surpassing expectations of 49.8 and improving from December's reading of 49.2, signaling an enhancement in business activity. A closer look at the data shows the prices paid sub-component increased from 52.5 to 54.9, indicating higher input costs. Additionally, the employment index showed significant improvement, moving from 45.4 in December to 50.3, reflecting better employment conditions within the sector. Bart Melek, Head of Commodity Strategies at TD Securities, commented that the market is not fully aware of the extent of the trade war. "We haven't seen a complete response from Gold, and if this trade war continues for a considerable period, it could lead to significantly higher Gold prices down the road," he added. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said the Fed could be patient on rate cuts due to tariff uncertainty. Atlanta’s Fed President Raphael Bostic said the Fed needs to get inflation to 2% for the credibility of the institution. He added that the labor market is solid, and he wants to see what the 100 bps of easing last year translates into the economy. Money market futures now price in 44 basis points of Fed rate cuts in 2025, with traders anticipating the first move in June. XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold price remains bullish as buyers eye $2,850 Gold price’s uptrend resumed on Monday as the yellow metal hit an all-time high (ATH) of $2,830. Further upside is seen amid geopolitical uncertainty due to the US imposing tariffs, the Middle East conflict, and the Russia-Ukraine war. If XAU/USD rises past $2,830, the next resistance would be the 100% Fibonacci level near $2,844 as part of the January 25 to January 31 leg up, which can be seen in the 4-hour chart below. If surpassed, the next resistance will be the 161.8% Fib extension at $2,889, ahead of $2,900. Conversely, if sellers clear the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,770, this will be followed by the January 27 swing low of $2,730. The next stop below there would be $2,700.Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

21:32 Dow Jones Industrial Average recovers after tariff rout
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is caught in a lurch on Monday, falling below the 44,000 handle in the overnight session before recovering lost ground after headlines hit that US tariffs on Mexico may be delayed for up to a month as the two countries work out their differences.

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However, fresh threats of new tariffs on Europe further complicate investor sentiment to kick off the trading week. United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic noted that he and the rest of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are willing to hold off even longer on interest rate adjustments. Tariffs are spiraling into a global trade war between the US and the majority of its trading allies, weighing heavily on stability and the inflation outlook. Mexico potentially scored a one-month delay on US tariffs, but details remain fuzzy and are dependent on how negotiations between the two sides evolve. Canada, China, and now the European Union remain on the block as countries that President Trump will punish by charging his own constituents excess fees for buying their goods. The US ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) recovered in January, climbing to 50.9 from 49.3, its highest point since late 2022. However, US economic signals are taking a hard backseat to geopolitical turmoil and trade war headlines. This is likely the last time that PMIs will have steady bullish prints for a while as the US trade taxes it is imposing on itself take hold and squeeze economic activity. Dow Jones news Despite a steep trim of the Dow Jones Industrial Average over the weekend, the major equity board is holding surprisingly steady in the aggregate, with about half of the index holding in the green for Monday. Apple (AAPL) and Nvidia (NVDA) are the biggest losers on the Dow, falling 3.4% and 2.8% respectively. Apple backslid to $228 per share, with Nvidia falling to a share price of $117. Both megacompanies are hugely exposed to trade tariffs, with the technology sector relying heavily on cross-border trade in order to manufacture and assemble their products. Dow Jones price forecast The Dow Jones Industrial Average is scrambling to dig in its heels at the 44,500 level, caught in whipsaw chop as equities go reeling. The Dow kicked off the trading week below the 44,000 handle, but investor sentiment is catching some bids on easing tariff headlines, keeping price action overall on the bullish side, though the Dow Jones remains caught on the low side of all-time highs above 45,000. Dow Jones daily chartDow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.

20:25 US President Trump: I like the idea of tariffs on most countries
United States (US) President Donald Trump hit the newswires with a wide swath of off-hand statements on Monday, ranging from the war in Ukraine, where President Trump expects 'rare earth metals' in exchange for obtaining a ceasefire with Russia.

United States (US) President Donald Trump hit the newswires with a wide swath of off-hand statements on Monday, ranging from the war in Ukraine, where President Trump expects 'rare earth metals' in exchange for obtaining a ceasefire with Russia. Donald Trump also noted that he remains "not happy" with the Panama situation, and reiterated that his work on tariffs is not over yet. Key hightlights We’ll be doing something perhaps with TikTok if we can make the right deal, TikTok could go into the sovereign wealth fund. Nobody is out of tariffs. I had good talk with Trudeau. We haven't agreed on tariffs yet with Mexico. We're not treated well by Canada. We don't need Canadian cars, lumber, agriculture. I wouldn't mind making our cars in the United States. We will have a big negotiation with Mexico. We will speak to China over next 24 hours, probably. China won't be involved with the Panama Canal for long. China will be dealt with on the Panama Canal. China tariffs were an opening salvo. USAID is a good concept, but has radical left lunatics. I like the idea of reciprocal tariffs on more countries. We are telling Ukraine they have valuable rare earths and we want a guarantee. I'm seeking guarantees on rare earths in any deal with Ukraine. I want Ukraine to give us rare earths. We will have a call with Panama on Friday. I'm not happy with the Panama situation but they have agreed to some things. I have no guarantees that the Gaza ceasefire will hold.

20:21 US Dollar gains after Trump’s tariff escalation
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against a basket of currencies, retreats slightly after failing to test the 110.00 level but remains well-supported above 108.00.

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Investor focus shifts to the latest US tariffs, with President Trump imposing a 25% tariff on Canada and 10% on China. These measures have heightened inflationary concerns, fueling speculation on how the Federal Reserve may respond. A 25% tariff on Mexico was shelved for one month after Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum agreed to send 10,000 troops to the US-Mexico border in order to reduce drug smuggling. Both leaders said they would attempt to hammer out a trade deal to forestall the tariffs. Additionally, January’s ISM Manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations, suggesting continued strength in the US economy and reinforcing the US Dollar’s resilience in global markets. Daily digest market movers: US Dollar firms as markets assess tariffs and data The US Dollar remains elevated as markets digest the impact of Trump’s new tariffs on major trading partners. The pause of tariffs on Mexico arrested a global sell-off in financial markets, sparked by his decision to move forward with tariffs on goods from Canada and China. Trump also threatens additional tariffs on the European Union, criticizing their trade policies and lack of US imports. On the data front, the ISM Manufacturing PMI for January climbed to 50.9 from 49.3, exceeding market expectations of 49.8. The Prices Paid Index, a key inflation measure, rose to 54.9 from 52.5, signaling persistent pricing pressure. The Employment Index improved to 50.3 from 45.4, indicating stronger labor market conditions in the manufacturing sector. The New Orders Index jumped to 55.1, reflecting growing demand and business optimism despite trade tensions. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates an 80% probability that the Fed will keep rates steady at the March meeting. DXY technical outlook: Bulls aim for 110.00 as indicators recover The US Dollar Index remains supported above 108.00, showing resilience despite retracing from its recent rally. Momentum indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) are recovering, suggesting a potential continuation of bullish momentum. If buying pressure persists, the DXY could attempt to retest 110.00 in the near term. Key resistance lies at 108.80, with additional upside barriers at 109.50. On the downside, support is seen around 107.80, with a break below this level potentially shifting sentiment toward a more corrective phase. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.

19:55 Fed's Bostic: Job market remains solid, but tariffs add uncertainty
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic noted on Monday that although the US labor market remains surprisingly resilient, tariff threats throw a wrench in outlook expectations.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic noted on Monday that although the US labor market remains surprisingly resilient, tariff threats throw a wrench in outlook expectations. Key highlights The current degree of uncertainty has broadened considerably. Tariffs are an aspect of uncertainty; it is challenging to figure out how to incorporate it. Because things are changing so rapidly, the most important thing to do is ask questions of business contacts, and look at possible other outcomes. Maintaining end-2024 solid outlook, monitoring the economy. The emphasis is still on inflation. The US can support a much tighter labor market than was previously understood. The outlook is for inflation to continue to fall. I'm not expecting path to 2% inflation will be a straight line. There's a compelling reason to expect housing inflation to fall. The outlook is for job market to remain solid. The labor market right now is not a constraint on business. I want to see what the 100 bps of cuts last year translates to in the economy. Uncertainty has been increasing; want to be cautious and not have policy lean in a direction and have to switch. How long it takes to get to neutral depends on how the economy evolves. I see the nominal neutral rate at 3%-3.5%. I'm prepared to wait for a while to cut again.

19:26 Mexican Peso rallies as US-Mexico tariff pause eases tensions
The Mexican Peso (MXN) recovered some ground after weakening to an almost three-year low of 21.28 against the US Dollar (USD) as United States (US) President Donald Trump and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum agreed to pause tariffs for one month as they compromise to cooperate in security and trade.

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The USD/MXN trades at 20.53, down 0.99%. Recently, Mexican President Sheinbaum said that she and US President Donald Trump had some conversations, which resulted in a one-month pause on tariffs. The market mood shifted positively after the news broke on Sheinbaum’s X account, followed by Trump’s statement on his Truth account. Even though the Mexican Peso took a respite following the news, it would remain adrift to Trump’s rhetoric. Following the news, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the buck’s performance against a basket of six currencies, trimmed earlier gains of over 1.27% and is up 0.23% at 108.75. The DXY’s fall boosted the Mexican Peso, which has reached a two-day high at 20.41. On the data front, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) revealed that business activity in the United States improved in January, while Boston Fed President Susan Collins commented that tariffs “would push up prices across production levels,” adding that the Fed needs to do more to lower inflation. Daily digest market movers: Mexican Peso saved by the bell as Sheinbaum and Trump agreed to terms Mexican President Sheinbaum said that Mexico would deploy 10,000 national guards to the border immediately to avoid the trafficking of drugs to the US. She asked US President Trump to work to avoid selling high-powered weapons to Mexico. Sheinbaum added that tariffs have been paused for a month now. Trump agreed to pause tariffs for one month with Mexico’s President immediately. He added that the US would hold negotiations with Mexico headed by Rubio, Bessent, Howard Lutnick, and high-profile Mexican officials. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI for January rose to 50.9, surpassing estimates of 49.8 and improved from December's reading of 49.3. The ISM Manufacturing sub-component of prices paid increased from 52.5 to 54.9, indicating higher input costs. JP Morgan revealed via Reuters that the Mexican Peso could depreciate 11.8% if the US imposes 25% tariffs. The US bank said that the “base case” is for postponing tariffs. Money market futures now price in 46 basis points of Fed rate cuts in 2025, with traders anticipating the first move in June. Technical outlook: The Mexican Peso appreciates but clashes with support at the 50-day SMA USD/MXN uptrend remains in place, even though the Peso erased its over 2% losses on Trump’s tariffs rhetoric. Since hitting a daily high of 21.29, the exotic pair tumbled towards 20.50, shy of clearing the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 20.43. A breach of the latter will expose the 100-day SMA at 20.14, before challenging the psychological 20.00 mark. Conversely, if USD/MXN rises past the previous year-to-date (YTD) peak of 20.90, a move towards 21.00 is on the cards.Mexican Peso FAQs What key factors drive the Mexican Peso? The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity. How do decisions of the Banxico impact the Mexican Peso? The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. How does economic data influence the value of the Mexican Peso? Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Mexican Peso? As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

19:05 Canadian Dollar hits 21-year low as tariff battle weighs
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) plummeted to its lowest bids against the US Dollar (USD) in 21 years at the outset of the trading week after the US and Canada went tit-for-tat on trade tariffs that will pulverize key aspects of both economies.

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Overall market sentiment recovered ground after Mexico was able to negotiate a one-month ceasefire on US tariffs targeting goods imported from Mexico, but the Loonie is still testing its lowest bids since 2020. The US imposed a flat 25% import tariff on all goods crossing the border from Canada over the weekend, though US President Donald Trump caved on pressure to reduce tariffs on Canadian-sourced Crude Oil to 10%. Canada immediately responded with their own export taxes on goods and energy sold to the US, daring President Trump to follow through with his threat to double import fees on Canadian goods if Canada retaliated against his tariffs. According to some analysts, the tit-for-tat trade spat between the US and Canada could add another 0.7% to underlying core demand-led inflation in the US. Related newsTariffs and inflation fears drive market rout Trump: Risk appetite turns sour on tariffs, but there is hope they could be short lived Trump fires first salvo in multifront trade warDaily digest market movers: Trade war 2.0 underway as US bills its own businesses The Canadian Dollar hit 1.4800 against the US Dollar for the first time in over two decades. Markets have recovered their footing, but USD/CAD is still testing into pandemic highs as market sentiment keeps the Greenback bid. A one-month reprieve on the US’ tariffs on Mexico has been granted as Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum agrees to trade negotiations with President Trump’s cavalcade of appointees with very important jobs but little practical experience. Canada opted to retaliate with export fees on the exact same goods that the US will be charging import taxes on. President Trump promised to double tariffs if either Canada or Mexico retaliated. Donald Trump’s tariffs are broadly expected to crunch the Canadian economy, as well as contribute to targeted joblessness within the US and contribute meaningfully to core US inflation metrics. Jumpstarting inflation and a possible rise in US Crude Oil costs is a poor way to get rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed). Canadian Dollar price forecast The Canadian Dollar came within a stone’s throw of 1.4800 against the US Dollar early Monday before markets were able to pump the brakes. The Loonie has recovered some footing after falling to 21-year lows, in tandem with a slight easing in the Greenback.USD/CAD is still trading into almost five-year highs near the 1.4600 handle as the Greenback accelerates into a sixth straight gaining session against the Loonie. USD/CAD has risen over 10% bottom-to-top from its low of 1.3420 last September. USD/CAD daily chartCanadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

18:06 EUR/USD Price Analysis: Pair trims losses after sharp drop, remains below 20-day SMA
The EUR/USD pair continued its downward trajectory on Monday, slipping to a low around 1.0200 before staging a brief rebound to 1.0300.

EUR/USD declines to lows around 1.0200 on Monday, marking a 0.90% drop as bearish pressure intensifies.The pair managed to trim losses towards 1.0300 but the outlook remains negative.RSI declines to 42, signaling weakening momentum, while MACD prints rising red bars, reflecting persistent bearish traction.The EUR/USD pair continued its downward trajectory on Monday, slipping to a low around 1.0200 before staging a brief rebound to 1.0300. However, the failed attempt to extend gains highlights the prevailing selling pressure, keeping the pair below its 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and maintaining a bearish outlook. Technical indicators further support the negative bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has declined to 42, suggesting that downside momentum is gaining traction. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is showing rising red bars, indicating that selling pressure remains dominant despite intermittent recovery attempts. Looking ahead, immediate support stands at 1.0200, a key level that, if broken, could trigger a move toward 1.0150. On the upside, the first resistance appears at 1.0300, followed by the 20-day SMA near 1.0350. Until the pair clears these resistance zones, the broader trend remains tilted to the downside. EUR/USD daily chart

17:24 USD/JPY pulls back as trade tensions stir market uncertainty
The USD/JPY retreated from daily highs of 155.86 hit after US President Donald Trump advanced on its protectionist policies, enacting tariffs in Canada, Mexico, and China.

17:00 United States ISM Manufacturing PMI registered at 50.9 above expectations (49.8) in January
United States ISM Manufacturing PMI registered at 50.9 above expectations (49.8) in January

17:00 United States Construction Spending (MoM) above forecasts (0.1%) in December: Actual (0.5%)
United States Construction Spending (MoM) above forecasts (0.1%) in December: Actual (0.5%)

17:00 United States ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid came in at 54.9, above expectations (52.6) in January
United States ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid came in at 54.9, above expectations (52.6) in January

17:00 United States ISM Manufacturing Employment Index up to 50.3 in January from previous 45.3
United States ISM Manufacturing Employment Index up to 50.3 in January from previous 45.3

17:00 United States ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index climbed from previous 52.5 to 55.1 in January
United States ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index climbed from previous 52.5 to 55.1 in January

16:54 Trump fires first salvo in multifront trade war – Danske Bank
Trump fired the first shot in a multifront trade war on Saturday when tariffs on

Trump fired the first shot in a multifront trade war on Saturday when tariffs onMexico, Canada and China became a reality, Danske Bank analysts Senior Analyst and Chief Analyst note. Impact on US economy to be moderate for now"The tariffs are linked to border security and thus could be removed or reduced following negotiations. However, there is also a risk we see a tit-for-tat escalation in the short term. We also expect to see more tariffs on China later this year and that EU and possibly other countries will be hit as well before long.""US growth may take a moderate short-term hit but fiscal easing keeps the medium term outlook broadly unchanged for now. Inflation will see a modest one-off impulse.""The biggest impact for now may be the uncertainty the global economy is faced with, and supply chain planning for businesses have only become more tricky."

16:49 DXY: Signals of a deeper decline are not yet visible – BBH
The Dollar Index (DXY) has rebounded after probing the upper part of previous multi-month range at 107, BBH FX analysts report.

The Dollar Index (DXY) has rebounded after probing the upper part of previous multi-month range at 107, BBH FX analysts report. DXY can inch higher towards projections of 111"DXY has gapped up to start the week and is fast approaching the high achieved last month near 110.15. Daily MACD has started posting negative divergence denoting receding upward momentum. However, signals of a deeper decline are not yet visible. It would be interesting to see if the index can establish itself beyond 110.15." "Should this crossover materialize, the Dollar Index could inch higher towards projections of 111 and 111.90. Defence of recent gap level at 108.55 is crucial to avert deeper pullback."

16:45 United States S&P Global Manufacturing PMI came in at 51.2, above forecasts (50.1) in January
United States S&P Global Manufacturing PMI came in at 51.2, above forecasts (50.1) in January

16:37 US Dollar Index gives up some gains, outlook remains firm as US Trump starts trade war
The US Dollar (USD) surrenders some of its intraday gains in Monday’s North American session, with the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, dropping to near 109.20 after posting a fresh two-week high near 109.90.

16:30 Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI declined to 51.6 in January from previous 52.2
Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI declined to 51.6 in January from previous 52.2

16:23 China: CPI inflation likely picked up seasonally – Standard Chartered
China’s official manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.1 in January from 50.1 in February, entering contractionary territory again since October. The official survey suggests a broad-based m/m decline in demand and production activity.

China’s official manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.1 in January from 50.1 in February, entering contractionary territory again since October. The official survey suggests a broad-based m/m decline in demand and production activity. Only the equipment manufacturing PMI stayed above 50 in January, while hi-tech, consumer goods and high-energy-consuming manufacturing PMIs fell below 50. External headwinds have increased with the latest US announcement of additional 10% tariffs on China imports, weighing on the overall manufacturing outlook, in our view, Standard Chartered's economists report.Mindful of holiday distortions"The services PMI retreated to 50.3 in January after jumping to 52 in December, despite an acceleration in tourist-related services activity (including railway transport, accommodation and catering). Meanwhile, our SME survey and high-frequency data suggest that real-estate performance softened from December. New home sales in major cities dropped m/m, partly due to seasonal effects. In addition, the construction PMI fell to new low of 49.3 in January, partly affected by weather and holiday disruptions.""Only FX reserves, inflation and monetary data for January will be released this month. China’s trade and real activity data for January and February will be combined and released in March, in order to smooth Lunar New Year effects. We expect FX reserves to have remained relatively stable. The DXY index dropped modestly and UST yields picked up.""We expect CPI inflation to have edged up to 0.5% y/y in January from 0.1% in December. Food CPI likely picked up. Vegetable and fruit prices picked up seasonally on holiday demand. Meanwhile, pock prices dropped m/m, per interim data. Non-food CPI likely edged up due to an increase in prices of tourist-related services, entertainment and household services. In addition, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) raised domestic gasoline retail prices following the movement in international oil prices."

16:02 Metal commodities have come under pressure – ING
US President Donald Trump carried out his threat over the weekend and imposed tariffs of 25% on Canada and Mexico and 10% on China, starting on Tuesday.

US President Donald Trump carried out his threat over the weekend and imposed tariffs of 25% on Canada and Mexico and 10% on China, starting on Tuesday. Canada and Mexico already vowed to retaliate against US tariffs with their own measures, while China has pledged “corresponding countermeasures” to Trump’s levies on Chinese exports. Tariff threats have kept metals markets on edge since Trump’s win in the presidential election in November, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note. Tariffs are a major headwind to metals"Tariffs on metals are likely to hit Canada the hardest. Canada accounts for over half of US Aluminum imports by value. The country is also the second biggest, behind Chile, source of Copper, and it’s the biggest supplier of steel to the US, followed by Brazil and Mexico. The US President said that Copper tariffs will take a little bit longer to implement than those of Aluminum and steel.""Tariffs are a major headwind to metals. Inflationary in nature, tariffs could limit interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve. At the same time, higher rates along with higher tariffs and greater geopolitical uncertainty will push up the dollar, providing headwinds to industrial metals demand. Tariffs are also likely to result in higher domestic prices in the US. For Aluminum, tariffs will result in higher prices in the US, representing a significant upside risk to the US Midwest premium this year.""Back in 2018 Trump imposed a 10% duty on imported Aluminum and a 25% tariff on imported steel to promote domestic metal production. The tariffs on Canada and Mexico were lifted a year later after a new free-trade agreement was negotiated between the two countries and the US."

15:59 GBP/USD holds up relatively better than peers – Scotiabank
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is weaker on the session but it has held up a little better than its G10 peers, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is weaker on the session but it has held up a little better than its G10 peers, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. GBP is trading weaker on the day"The UK has yet to draw the tariff ire of President Trump. The US runs a small trade surplus with the UK overall and the UK’s trade advantage lies in services, rather than goods. That does not mean that tariffs in some form are not coming but the economic hit may be relatively less severe. Final January UK manufacturing PMI was revised up 0.1 to 48.3." "Sterling has been less affected by the weekend volatility and intraday chart patterns are leaning mildly bullish in early trade as the pound edges off the early low. Cable gains have been capped at 1.2325 so far intraday but a push through the low 1.23s should see spot rebound to1.2375/00 at least. Support is 1.2250."

15:57 Oil: Tariffs on Canadian energy imports – ING
US tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico and China are set to come into effect on 4 February and failing to come to a deal would mean tariffs of 25% on Canadian and Mexican goods and 10% on imports from China. For Canadian energy, the Trump administration decided to impose a tariff of only 10%.

US tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico and China are set to come into effect on 4 February and failing to come to a deal would mean tariffs of 25% on Canadian and Mexican goods and 10% on imports from China. For Canadian energy, the Trump administration decided to impose a tariff of only 10%. However, this has still seen NYMEX RBOB and ULSD trading stronger in early morning trading today, which also dragged WTI higher, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note. USD to provide headwinds for broader commodities complexCanada is a key supplier of crude oil to the US, with the US importing around 4m b/d from Canada (61% of total imports). This crude oil is a heavier crude, which many US refineries are configured to run on, particularly in the Mid-West. Given the importance of Canadian oil to the US, it is not surprising to see that WTI is trading stronger this morning. In theory, tariffs mean higher feedstock prices for US refiners (which will ultimately be passed onto consumers)." "If Canada had a more sizeable export infrastructure allowing it to export to other external markets, Canadian oil producers would feel less pain from these tariffs. There is 890k b/d of pipeline capacity (Trans Mountain pipeline) from Alberta to the West Coast of Canada, allowing Canadian crude to be exported to other markets, and we are likely to see more of this pipeline capacity used once tariffs are imposed. Ultimately, given that Canadian producers have fewer alternatives than US refiners, means Canadian oil producers are likely to feel relatively more pain from these tariffs.""More broadly, an escalation in trade tensions is not supportive for risk assets with it souring sentiment and raising concerns over the impact it could have on global growth, which means the strength in crude oil prices may be short-lived. The strength in the USD will also likely provide some headwinds not just for oil but the broader commodities complex."

15:50 EUR slide to mid-1.01 range reverses – Scotiabank
The EUR slumped to 1.0150 in early Asian trade but has since stabilized in the low/mid-1.02 range. President Trump made it clear that tariffs are coming for the EU as well in the not-too-distant future, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

The EUR slumped to 1.0150 in early Asian trade but has since stabilized in the low/mid-1.02 range. President Trump made it clear that tariffs are coming for the EU as well in the not-too-distant future, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. More losses look likely ahead"The tariff threat is likely to bolster expectations for easier ECB policy in the months ahead, given the implications for EU growth. Eurozone Manufacturing PMI data for January was revised up (to 46.6, from 46.1) on upwardly revised (but still soft) German data. Eurozone CPI fell less than expected in January (- 0.3% M/M) to leave inflation a little higher than forecast (2.5% Y/Y, versus 2.4% expected)." "The EUR’s weekend plunge has also left a gap on the short-term charts that the market may try and fill as the initial move lower moderates. A push to the 1.0300/50 range is likely to draw out renewed selling interest, however. Broader technical risks remain geared to a push under 1.00 and a drop towards 0.95/0.96 in the months ahead."

15:47 USD/CNH: Strong opening gap in USD suggests further advance – UOB Group
US Dollar (USD) could rise further; overbought conditions suggest 7.4000 is unlikely to come into view. In the longer run, strong opening gap in USD suggests further advance; expect 7.4000 to provide resistance, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

US Dollar (USD) could rise further; overbought conditions suggest 7.4000 is unlikely to come into view. In the longer run, strong opening gap in USD suggests further advance; expect 7.4000 to provide resistance, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Overbought conditions suggest 7.4000 is unlikely to come into view24-HOUR VIEW: "USD gapped opened today and appears to have risen above last month’s high of 7.3700. While USD could rise further, conditions are already overbought, and the major resistance at 7.4000 is unlikely to come into view. On the downside, any pullback is unlikely to threaten last Friday’s low of 7.3150." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "The strong opening gap in USD today suggests further advance, but we expect the 7.4000 level to provide resistance. To maintain the rapid buildup in momentum, USD must remain above 7.2950. On a short-term note, 7.3150 is already quite a strong support level."

15:46 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD recovers above $2,800 as USD gives up some gains
Gold price (XAU/USD) recovers its intraday losses and turns positive in Monday’s North American session.

15:25 USD/CAD: Markets ponder next steps in trade war – Scotiabank
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) has weakened in response to President Trump applying 25% tariffs on Canadian exports to the US. A 10% tariff will apply to Canadian energy exports. In response, Canada has announced limited counter-tariff retaliation of 25% covering USD107bn of US exports to Canada.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) has weakened in response to President Trump applying 25% tariffs on Canadian exports to the US. A 10% tariff will apply to Canadian energy exports. In response, Canada has announced limited counter-tariff retaliation of 25% covering USD107bn of US exports to Canada. Canadian officials suggest they may pursue legal measure to remove tariffs but appear resigned to these measures remaining in place for some weeks at least, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. CAD weaker but off lows"There are potential off-ramps, for example, but tariffs are clearly a big part of President Trump’s toolbox and—despite evident growth risks for the US economy from these actions—it’s hard to see an easy out for Canada from this situation. Limited retaliation from Canada tilts risks towards some additional BoC easing ahead as growth risks appear more significant than inflation at this point, given Canada’s partial tariff response. The CAD is at risk of weakening further against the USD. Markets had priced in the risk of some tariff action over the past few weeks but not, I believe, the full extent of the plans announced thus far." "Given the 10% oil/energy carve out, the average tariff on Canadian exports to the US is around the 20% mark. The CAD may have to weaken to the 1.50-1.55 range to help offset the tariff impact. Uncertainties are high and significant— how long will tariffs last, will exemptions be granted, what will the US economy’s response be, are these measures subject to legal challenges?—and the CAD’s relatively benign response to developments thus far are perhaps not indicative of its likely performance in the weeks ahead." "The USD rally early Monday has stalled on the short-term chart after peaking just under 1.48. The weekend advance has left a gap on the intraday chart between 1.4550/00 which markets may have to try and fill before the USD’s broader advance resumes. Recent, positive technical signs for the CAD have been overwhelmed by the USD’s jump to new, multi-year highs and sustained gains through the 1.4650/1.47 zone suggest medium term risks are tilted towards a push on to 1.50, if not higher."

15:21 USD/JPY: Bias for USD is tilted to the upside – UOB Group
Upward momentum is beginning to build; US Dollar (USD) is likely to rise above 156.00 but is unlikely to reach 156.80.

Upward momentum is beginning to build; US Dollar (USD) is likely to rise above 156.00 but is unlikely to reach 156.80. In the longer run, bias for USD is tilted to the upside; currently, any advance is likely part of a higher trading range of 154.30/157.20, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. USD/JPY fis likely to rise above 156.0024-HOUR VIEW: "USD closed at 155.18 last Friday (+0.57%), but it rose sharply in early Asian trade today. Upward momentum is beginning to build, and USD is likely to rise above 156.00. The next major resistance at 156.80 is likely out of reach for now. On the downside, we expect any pullback to remain above 155.00 (minor support is at 155.40)." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "The pullback in USD to 153.70 in late January appears to have stabilized. While short-term upward momentum is building, it is premature to expect a sustained advance from here. That said, the bias is tilted to the upside, but at this time, we view any advance as part of a higher trading range of 154.30/157.20."

15:16 USD surge over the weekend moderates in early trade – Scotiabank
The first real shots of a global trade war were fired at the weekend, with President Trump levying 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, an additional 10% on Chinese goods and telling Europe that tariffs are 'absolutely' coming.

The first real shots of a global trade war were fired at the weekend, with President Trump levying 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, an additional 10% on Chinese goods and telling Europe that tariffs are 'absolutely' coming. The president will hold separate talks with Canada and Mexico today but the hopes for a last minute—or early—off ramp for these measures appear very dim, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. Tariff action pushes USD to moderate in early trade"The USD jumped, driving the MXN more than 2.5% lower at one point, and while the CAD has hit the lowest since the early 2000s, it is outperforming some of its peers. Japan has yet to fall under the tariff gaze of the White House, helping the JPY outperform broadly on the session—rising 0.3% on the day. Stocks are lower across the globe and bonds are firmer, outside of US Treasuries. The consequences of tariffs for the US economy and consumers may be significant." "Prices for basic goods are likely to rise sharply, construction costs will increase, auto prices may rise by $3000, according to some estimates. The auto sector may start to slow sharply and relatively quicky, given intricate North American supply chains. Higher inflationary pressures (helping keep US interest rates relatively firmer) and somewhat slower growth may result." "The DXY advanced strongly over the weekend but the index failed to reach the early January high above 110 and has traded well off the overnight high so far today. Markets may be thinking that the economic and market downsides of tariffs will make Trump rethink quickly but that might be an error. The longer tariffs persist, the firmer the USD is likely to trade."

15:00 Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI increased to 50.7 in January from previous 50.4
Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI increased to 50.7 in January from previous 50.4

15:00 Singapore Purchasing Managers Index fell from previous 51.1 to 50.9 in January
Singapore Purchasing Managers Index fell from previous 51.1 to 50.9 in January

14:27 South Africa Total New Vehicle Sales increased to 46.4 in January from previous 41.27
South Africa Total New Vehicle Sales increased to 46.4 in January from previous 41.27

13:47 AUD/USD Price Forecast: Posts fresh four-year low near 0.6100
The AUD/USD pair recovers slightly after plummeting to a fresh four-year low near 0.6100 but is still more than 1.10% down in Monday’s European session.

13:32 NZD/USD: Risks for NZD are on the downside – UOB Group
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could drop further and test 0.5510 before stabilization can be expected. In the longer run, risks for NZD are on the downside; it must break clearly below 0.5510 before a move to 0.5450 is likely, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could drop further and test 0.5510 before stabilization can be expected. In the longer run, risks for NZD are on the downside; it must break clearly below 0.5510 before a move to 0.5450 is likely, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.NZD can test 0.5510 before stabilization24-HOUR VIEW: “The sharp drop in NZD this morning appears to be excessive. However, the weakness has not stabilized, and NZD could drop further and test 0.5500 before stabilization can be expected. As conditions are already deeply oversold, a sustained decline below 0.5510 seems unlikely for now. Resistance levels are at 0.5575 and 0.5600.”1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Although the plunge in NZD today indicates continuing downside risk, it is worth noting that 0.5510 is a significant support level. NZD must break and remain below this level before a move to 0.5450 is likely. The chance of NZD is breaking clearly below 0.5450 will remain intact, provided that 0.5630 is not breached in the coming days.”

13:28 BoC reaction function is crucial for FX – ING
The balance of growth and inflationary effects from US tariffs is of huge importance for FX, as this will determine the Bank of Canada’s policy reaction and potentially widen the USD-CAD rate gap even further, ING’s FX analysts Francesco Pesole and James Knightley note.

The balance of growth and inflationary effects from US tariffs is of huge importance for FX, as this will determine the Bank of Canada’s policy reaction and potentially widen the USD-CAD rate gap even further, ING’s FX analysts Francesco Pesole and James Knightley note.BoC cuts exacerbate the depreciation of CAD“With 75% of Canada’s exports going to the US – equating to 20% of Canada’s entire GDP – the risk of an outright recession is high. The BoC has already cut the overnight rate 200bp and our call for two additional 25bp rate cuts now is subject to significant risk.”“The BoC will be concerned about the inflationary threat provided by Canada’s own tariffs, but given the headwinds to Canadian growth and jobs that Trump’s actions pose we suggest the balance of probabilities is skewed towards the BoC offering more support via looser monetary policy.”“That could result in a ‘snowball effect’ for CAD, where BoC cuts exacerbate the depreciation already caused by tariff-related risk premium. We cannot exclude the possibility of the Trump administration then accusing Canada of ‘artificially’ depreciating CAD via lower rates to mitigate the tariff impact.”

13:12 AUD/USD to drop further – UOB Group
Chance for Australian Dollar (AUD) to drop further; given the deeply oversold conditions, a sustained decline below 0.6080 appears unlikely today.

Chance for Australian Dollar (AUD) to drop further; given the deeply oversold conditions, a sustained decline below 0.6080 appears unlikely today. In the longer run, AUD is under pressure; it is too early to determine if there is enough momentum for it to drop towards 0.6000, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.Not enough momentum for AUD to drop towards 0.600024-HOUR VIEW: “While further AUD declines appear likely in the coming days, the sharp plunge today appears to be overdone. That said, there is a chance for AUD to drop further, but given the deeply oversold conditions, a sustained decline below 0.6080 appears unlikely today. The 0.6045 support level is also unlikely to come under threat. On the upside, any recovery is likely to remain below 0.6205, with 0.6185 providing strong resistance.”1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “After recovering to a high of 0.6330 late last month, AUD fell sharply. Today, it fell below last month’s low of 0.6131, reaching levels not seen since Apr 2020. The price action suggests further AUD weakness, but it is too early to determine if there is enough momentum for AUD to drop towards the significant support level at 0.6000. Overall, we expect AUD to remain under pressure, as long as it remains below 0.6230.”

13:04 USD: Trump delivers new tariffs – ING
Saturday's announcement that Washington would go into full tariff mode against Mexico and Canada starting tomorrow has come as a surprise to FX markets.

Saturday's announcement that Washington would go into full tariff mode against Mexico and Canada starting tomorrow has come as a surprise to FX markets. As recently as Friday afternoon, reports were circulating that tariffs would come into effect on 1 March – seemingly providing a month for Canada and Mexico to negotiate away the tariff threat. Instead, it looks like the 'maximum pressure' negotiating position of this new Trump administration is to tariff first, perhaps in an effort to get the best deal as quickly as possible, ING’s FX analysts Chris Turner notes.DXY to stay bid near this year's high“The trouble for investors, however, is that the off-ramp to these tariffs remains unclear. There have been remarks from President Donald Trump to the effect that there's 'nothing they can do' to avoid these tariffs. This points to a more substantial, permanent shift to a high tariff-low tax US economy and perhaps is consistent with the major report being asked of the US Commerce Department as to why the US runs large, perennial trade deficits. This report is due in April and could lead to universal tariffs.”“The FX market reaction has unsurprisingly been a defensive rally in the dollar. The DXY gapped higher by a percent. The currencies most heavily hit were understandably the commodity currencies - those currencies that benefit from global growth. In fact, the New Zealand and Australian dollars have been hit harder than the Canadian dollar. Outperforming are the defensive Japanese yen and Swiss franc. This is also driven by the 2% fall in S&P futures - under pressure on the prospect that US supply chains will break and corporate profitability will be hit.”“Unless Donald Trump surprises with a very last-minute de-escalation in tariffs (unlikely) expect DXY to stay bid near this year's high. Friday's benchmark revisions will probably be the best chance of DXY filling the overnight gap left down to 108.56.”

12:34 NZD/USD recovers some intraday losses, remains bearish as Trump imposes tariffs on China
The NZD/USD pair pares some intraday losses after nosediving to an over-two-year low near 0.5516 in Monday’s European session.

12:15 Germany’s Scholz: EU can react with its own tariffs but cooperation is more important
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on Monday, the European Union (EU) can react with its own tariffs but cooperation is more important.

12:13 EUR/USD slumps by over 1% as US President Trump reiterates tariff threats on Eurozone
EUR/USD nosedives over 1% to near 1.0240 at the start of the week.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD faces an intense sell-off as US President Donald Trump confirms that he will impose tariffs on the European Union.The US Dollar strengthens as investors rush to safe-haven fleet amid global trade war.Investors await the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data for January.EUR/USD nosedives over 1% to near 1.0240 at the start of the week. The major currency pair plummets as United States (US) President Donald Trump reiterates threats to impose tariffs on the European Union (EU). Over the weekend, Donald Trump slapped 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and 10% on China. Trump also warned that he will also raise levies on the trading bloc, but he didn’t provide much information. "It will definitely happen with the European Union. I can tell you that because they've really taken advantage of us," Trump said. He also accused the old continent of not buying enough US cars and farm products. Trump added that the EU take “almost nothing and we take everything from them”. The imposition of tariffs on the Eurozone will accelerate its troubles. The shared currency bloc is already facing risks of a slowdown. Preliminary Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for the fourth quarter of 2024 showed that the economy was flat after expanding 0.4% in the third quarter. The shrinking German economy remained the weak link to the Eurozone's flat GDP growth. Flash German GDP data showed that the economy contracted by 0.2% year-over-year in the last quarter of 2024. Signs of further weakness in the Eurozone economy could force the European Central Bank (ECB) to continue reducing interest rates. The ECB reduced its Deposit Facility rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.75% on Thursday and guided that the monetary policy path is clear, which is expansionary. Traders have fully priced in three interest rate cuts and see them coming by the summer as ECB officials are confident that inflation will sustainably return to the desired rate of 2% this year. On Monday, a flash Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) report for January showed that price pressures deflated on a month-on-month basis. The core HICP – which excludes volatile food and energy prices – deflated by 1% after growing 0.5% in December. In the same period, the headline HICP also deflated by 0.4%. On year, the headline HICP rose steadily by 2.7%, faster than estimates of 2.6%. The core HICP rose expectedly by 2.5%, faster than expectations of 2.4%. Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD plunges as USD’s safe-haven appeal increases EUR/USD faces an intense sell-off due to the strength of the US Dollar (USD). The safe-haven demand for the US Dollar has increased significantly as US President Trump has started a trade war. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, surges above 109.50. The US Dollar’s movement is mainly influenced by Trump’s comments on global trade. However, investors will also focus on a slew of US economic data, such as ISM Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), ADP Employment Change and the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) for January, and JOLTS Job Openings for December, which will release this week. Investors will pay close attention to labor market-related data to know its current status. On Wednesday, the Fed kept interest rates at their current levels and guided that the central bank will stay in the waiting mode until it sees “real progress in inflation or some weakness in the labor market”. In Monday’s session, investors will focus on the US Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and the revised S&P Global Manufacturing PMI data for January. Technical Analysis: EUR/USD plummets to near 1.0200EUR/USD dives vertically to near 1.0200. Last week, the major currency pair started declining after a short-lived recovery move to 1.0533, which market participants capitalized for adding shorts. The pair has fallen below the 20- and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) around 1.0378 and 1.0440, respectively, suggesting a bearish trend. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) slides below 40.00, suggesting a strong bearish momentum. Looking down, the January 13 low of 1.0177 and the round-level support of 1.0100 will act as major support zones for the pair. Conversely, the psychological resistance of 1.0500 will be the key barrier for the Euro bulls. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

12:01 Eurozone Preliminary HICP inflation rises to 2.5% YoY in January, as expected
The Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) advanced at an annual rate of 2.5% in January after increasing 2.4% in December, the official data released by Eurostat showed Monday.

12:00 Italy Consumer Price Index (MoM) above expectations (0.4%) in January: Actual (0.6%)
Italy Consumer Price Index (MoM) above expectations (0.4%) in January: Actual (0.6%)

12:00 Italy Consumer Price Index (YoY) climbed from previous 1.3% to 1.5% in January
Italy Consumer Price Index (YoY) climbed from previous 1.3% to 1.5% in January

12:00 Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM) dipped from previous 0.1% to -0.7% in January
Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM) dipped from previous 0.1% to -0.7% in January

12:00 Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY) increased to 1.7% in January from previous 1.4%
Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY) increased to 1.7% in January from previous 1.4%

12:00 Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): -1% (January) vs previous 0.5%
Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): -1% (January) vs previous 0.5%

12:00 Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) declined to -0.3% in January from previous 0.4%
Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) declined to -0.3% in January from previous 0.4%

12:00 Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) in line with forecasts (2.5%) in January
Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) in line with forecasts (2.5%) in January

12:00 Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) came in at 2.7%, above expectations (2.6%) in January
Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) came in at 2.7%, above expectations (2.6%) in January

11:58 GBP: Briefly out of the line of fire – ING
Sterling has been one of the least badly hit G10 currencies, arguably because the UK runs a trade deficit with the US and goods exports to GDP are relatively small, ING’s FX analysts Chris Turner notes.

Sterling has been one of the least badly hit G10 currencies, arguably because the UK runs a trade deficit with the US and goods exports to GDP are relatively small, ING’s FX analysts Chris Turner notes.A bias towards 1.2100 for GBP/USD looks likely this week“That is why EUR/GBP is under pressure today. However, we see Thursday's Bank of England rate meeting as a possible negative event risk for sterling. Given the broadly positive dollar environment, however, this looks more like a story for GBP/USD than EUR/GBP. A bias towards 1.2200 and possibly 1.2100 for GBP/USD looks likely this week, depending on the US trade story.”

11:55 GBP/USD: Sharp drop in GBP has scope to extend – UOB Group
Sharp drop in GBP has scope to extend; the 1.2245 level is expected to provide support. In the longer run, GBP is likely to trade with a downward bias towards 1.2245, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Sharp drop in GBP has scope to extend; the 1.2245 level is expected to provide support. In the longer run, GBP is likely to trade with a downward bias towards 1.2245, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.GBP is likely to trade with a downward bias24-HOUR VIEW: “While the sharp drop in GBP today has scope to extend, we expect the 1.2245 level to provide support. The next support, at 1.2200, is unlikely to come into view. Resistance is at 1.2355. To sustain the rapid buildup in momentum, GBP must remain below 1.2395.”1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Despite dropping sharply upon opening today, there has been no significant increase in downward momentum. However, GBP is likely to trade with a downward bias towards 1.2245. Further decline below 1.2245 is not ruled out, but currently, GBP does not appear to have enough momentum to reach 1.2200. The downward bias will remain intact as long as 1.2435 is not breached.”

11:47 EUR: A clean negative – ING
The growing prospect of a global trade war and tariffs heading towards the EU is a clean euro negative, ING’s FX analysts Chris Turner notes.

The growing prospect of a global trade war and tariffs heading towards the EU is a clean euro negative, ING’s FX analysts Chris Turner notes.There is now an upside gap to 1.0350“Those important two-year EUR:USD rate differentials have widened around 20bp over the last couple of sessions as investors price less easing from the Fed and more easing from the European Central Bank. This plus the increased risk premium for a global trade war saw EUR/USD touch a new cycle low of 1.0140 in early Asia.”“There is now an upside gap to 1.0350, but that only gets filled if there is some rapprochement in North America today or equities fall hard enough to prompt some wide-scale deleveraging of positions to a market very long the dollar already.”“Presumably tough talk from Europe that it will not be pushed around will be seen as a euro negative. And as above, the threat of a major report in April to justify US universal tariffs will see investors retain a sell-rally mindset in EUR/USD.”

11:35 EUR/USD: Risk is for further Euro weakness – UOB Group
Oversold decline has not stabilized; support levels are at 1.0175 and 1.0100. In the longer run, risk is for further Euro (EUR) weakness; it remains to be seen if it can break and remain below 1.0100, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Oversold decline has not stabilized; support levels are at 1.0175 and 1.0100. In the longer run, risk is for further Euro (EUR) weakness; it remains to be seen if it can break and remain below 1.0100, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.Oversold decline has not stabilized24-HOUR VIEW: “ EUR gapped lower when it opened today. While it is already oversold, the weakness has not stabilized, and EUR could continue to decline. Support levels are at 1.0175 and 1.0100. The latter level is likely out of reach for now. To sustain the sharp increase in momentum, EUR must remain below 1.0350. There is another resistance level at 1.0300.”1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “EUR plunged when it opened today. The sharp drop has resulted in an increase in downward momentum, and in the coming days, the risk is for further EUR weakness. However, it remains to be seen if it can break and remain below 1.0100. Looking ahead, the round-number support level of 1.0000 is expected to provide significant support as well. Overall, only a breach of 1.0380 (‘strong resistance’ level) would indicate that the weakness in EUR has stabilized. The ‘strong resistance’ level is expected to move lower in the coming days.”

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI above expectations (48.2) in January: Actual (48.3)
United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI above expectations (48.2) in January: Actual (48.3)

11:30 Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Monday, according to FXStreet data.

11:16 ECB's Šimkus: Expect a 25 bps decrease in March
European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Gediminas Šimkus said on Monday that he sees another 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut in March.

11:10 ECB's Kazimir: Latest rate cut moves us closer to our destination
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Peter Kazimir said on Monday, “latest rate cut moves us closer to our destination.” Additional quotes But we are not quite there yet.

European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Peter Kazimir said on Monday, “latest rate cut moves us closer to our destination.” Additional quotes But we are not quite there yet. Forecasts, services inflation, wage developments will navigate what will happen in April and beyond. Market reaction EUR/USD was last seen trading at 1.0246, down 1.10% on the day, heavily undermined by US President Donald Trump’s announcement of tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico over the weekend.

11:00 Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI dipped from previous 53.2 to 52.8 in January
Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI dipped from previous 53.2 to 52.8 in January

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI came in at 46.6, above expectations (46.1) in January
Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI came in at 46.6, above expectations (46.1) in January

11:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI set to show modest uptick in US factory activity in January
Excitement is building as the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) prepares to release the January US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) this Monday.

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50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The US ISM Manufacturing PMI is seen improving modestly in January.Markets will also look at the ISM Prices index and the Employment index. EUR/USD remains under pressure around the 1.0400 zone. Excitement is building as the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) prepares to release the January US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) this Monday. This report is a key barometer of the health of the United States (US) manufacturing sector and offers valuable insights into the broader economy's direction. Here’s what to watch for: PMI Thresholds: A PMI above 50.0 signals that the manufacturing sector is expanding, while a reading below 50.0 indicates contraction. Expectations: Analysts are anticipating a PMI of 49.5 for January. This is a slight improvement from December’s 49.3, suggesting a modest easing in contraction but still below the critical 50.0 mark. Despite the slight uptick, the January PMI is expected to remain in contraction territory. However, it's important to note that the overall economy has been on an expansion path for an impressive 56 months, with only a brief dip in April 2020 during the height of the pandemic. What to expect from the ISM manufacturing PMI report? In December, the manufacturing sector showed promising signs of growth for the second month in a row, thanks to an improvement in the ISM Manufacturing PMI. The ISM Manufacturing PMI has several key components. First, the New Orders Index kept expanding for the second consecutive month, indicating that manufacturers are receiving more orders. In December, the Production Index bounced back into expansion territory after six months of contraction, signaling that factories ramped up their output. Meanwhile, the Prices Index continued to rise, reflecting ongoing increases in production costs. One interesting highlight is the Backlog of Orders Index, which climbed to 45.9 percent in December, up 4.1 percentage points from November’s 41.8 percent. This rise suggests that manufacturers are facing higher demand and are building up their order queues. On the flip side, the Employment Index dipped by 2.8 percentage points compared to November, indicating a slight slowdown in hiring within the sector. Generally, a PMI reading above 50 percent means the manufacturing sector is growing, while below 50 percent indicates a contraction. However, even a reading above 42.5 percent over time can signal overall economic expansion. What does this mean for investors? With the manufacturing sector showing strength, high-yielding assets like stocks might see an upward trend. At the same time, the US Dollar (USD) could face selling pressure as investors grow more confident and take on more risk. Additionally, signs of continued growth—such as rising new orders and easing price pressures—are likely to be welcomed by investors looking for further expansion in the economy. When will the ISM Manufacturing PMI report be released and how could it affect EUR/USD? The ISM Manufacturing PMI report is scheduled for release at 15:00 GMT on Monday. Ahead of the data release, the US Dollar struggled to extend its weekly recovery, while EUR/USD corrected further south after hitting new yearly peaks around 1.0530 last week. Pablo Piovano, Senior Analyst at FXStreet, notes: “The continuation of the downward trend should put EUR/USD en route to revisit its 2025 low of 1.0176 established on January 13. The breakdown of this level could signal a bearish turn back to the crucial parity zone.” “On the flip side, the pair faces a minor resistance at the 2025 high of 1.0532 recorded on January 27. Should it break through this barrier, traders might see a spirited climb toward the December 2024 peak of 1.0629 (set on December 6) once the Fibonacci retracement of the September-January decline at 1.0572 is cleared.” Piovano adds: “The ongoing negative outlook is expected to persist as long as spot trades below its critical 200-day SMA at 1.0765. Further indicators note that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has eased below 46, indicating some loss of momentum, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) approaching 22 denotes a weakening trend.” Economic Indicator ISM Manufacturing PMI The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the US manufacturing sector. The indicator is obtained from a survey of manufacturing supply executives based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the US Dollar (USD). A reading below 50 signals that factory activity is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for USD. Read more. Next release: Mon Feb 03, 2025 15:00 Frequency: MonthlyConsensus: 49.5Previous: 49.3Source: Institute for Supply Management Why it matters to traders? The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) provides a reliable outlook on the state of the US manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 suggests that the business activity expanded during the survey period and vice versa. PMIs are considered to be leading indicators and could signal a shift in the economic cycle. Stronger-than-expected prints usually have a positive impact on the USD. In addition to the headline PMI, the Employment Index and the Prices Paid Index numbers are watched closely as they shine a light on the labour market and inflation. GDP FAQs What is GDP and how is it recorded? A country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the rate of growth of its economy over a given period of time, usually a quarter. The most reliable figures are those that compare GDP to the previous quarter e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q1 of 2023, or to the same period in the previous year, e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q2 of 2022. Annualized quarterly GDP figures extrapolate the growth rate of the quarter as if it were constant for the rest of the year. These can be misleading, however, if temporary shocks impact growth in one quarter but are unlikely to last all year – such as happened in the first quarter of 2020 at the outbreak of the covid pandemic, when growth plummeted. How does GDP influence currencies? A higher GDP result is generally positive for a nation’s currency as it reflects a growing economy, which is more likely to produce goods and services that can be exported, as well as attracting higher foreign investment. By the same token, when GDP falls it is usually negative for the currency. When an economy grows people tend to spend more, which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation with the side effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors, thus helping the local currency appreciate. How does higher GDP impact the price of Gold? When an economy grows and GDP is rising, people tend to spend more which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold versus placing the money in a cash deposit account. Therefore, a higher GDP growth rate is usually a bearish factor for Gold price.

10:55 Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI above expectations (44.1) in January: Actual (45)
Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI above expectations (44.1) in January: Actual (45)

10:50 France HCOB Manufacturing PMI below expectations (45.3) in January: Actual (45)
France HCOB Manufacturing PMI below expectations (45.3) in January: Actual (45)

10:45 Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI climbed from previous 46.2 to 46.3 in January
Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI climbed from previous 46.2 to 46.3 in January

10:44 GBP/JPY trades around 191.50 after recovering recent losses
GBP/JPY trims its recent losses, trading around 191.50 during the European hours on Monday.

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However, the GBP/JPY cross could face challenges as the Japanese Yen (JPY) attracts increased buying demand, driven by rising expectations of further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Additionally, the BoJ Summary of Opinions suggested that policymakers discussed the likelihood of raising interest rates further. A significant rise in Tokyo's core inflation, at the fastest annual pace in nearly a year, supports prospects for further policy tightening by the BoJ, which provides some support to the JPY. BoJ board members emphasized that it would be necessary to continue hiking rates if economic activity and prices remain on track, though this does little to boost the Japanese Yen. Japan's Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa stated on Monday that officials aim to achieve the BoJ's 2% inflation goal and plan measures to mitigate the impact of rising living costs. Further downside for the EUR/GBP cross appears possible as the Pound Sterling (GBP) faces risks due to expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will restart its policy-easing cycle, likely cutting interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.5% in February. Investors are closely watching the BoE's monetary policy decision next Thursday, with expectations of a dovish stance given recent signs of slowing inflation, despite continued wage growth acceleration. The BoE's monetary policy guidance could be dovish as recent inflation indicators show signs of deceleration, although wage growth remains on the rise. Financial market participants anticipate three interest rate cuts from the BoE this year amid declining labor demand and weakening business confidence. Central banks FAQs What does a central bank do? Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%. What does a central bank do when inflation undershoots or overshoots its projected target? A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing. Who decides on monetary policy and interest rates? A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%. Is there a president or head of a central bank? Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.

10:30 Switzerland SVME - Purchasing Managers' Index registered at 47.5, below expectations (49) in January
Switzerland SVME - Purchasing Managers' Index registered at 47.5, below expectations (49) in January

10:29 Austria Unemployment Rate up to 8.6% in January from previous 8.3%
Austria Unemployment Rate up to 8.6% in January from previous 8.3%

10:29 Austria Unemployment climbed from previous 352.9K to 365.7K in January
Austria Unemployment climbed from previous 352.9K to 365.7K in January

10:15 EUR/GBP holds losses below 0.8350, downside seems restrained due to dovish BoE
EUR/GBP trades around 0.8330 during the European session on Monday after recovering some part of its daily losses.

10:15 Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI declined to 50.9 in January from previous 53.3
Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI declined to 50.9 in January from previous 53.3

10:01 Pound Sterling dives against USD as US President Trump begins global trade war
The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades significantly lower to near 1.2250 against the US Dollar (USD) in Monday’s European session.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Pound Sterling plummets below 1.2300 against the US Dollar as market sentiment turns risk-averse after US President Trump imposes tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China.Investors await the US employment-related economic data and the BoE’s policy decision this week.The BoE is expected to cut interest rates by 25 bps to 4.5%.The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades significantly lower to near 1.2250 against the US Dollar (USD) in Monday’s European session. Earlier in the day, the GBP/USD pair had a gap-down opening as the imposition of tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China by United States (US) President Donald Trump spooked global financial markets, forcing investors to shift to safe-haven fleets. Dismal market sentiment has led to a sharp increase in the US Dollar (USD), which performs strongly in a turbulent environment. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, rallies above 109.50, the highest level seen in over two weeks. President Trump slapped 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and 10% on China during the weekend. Trump had already threatened to raise tariffs on his North American partners for allowing illegal immigrants and the deadly opioid fentanyl to enter the country. On the economic front, investors will pay close attention to labor market-related economic indicators this week, which will influence market speculation for how long the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates at their current levels. After the policy meeting on Wednesday, in which the Fed left interest rates unchanged in the range of 4.25%-4.50%, Chair Jerome Powell said that monetary policy adjustments would become appropriate only when they see “real progress in inflation or some weakness in the labor market”. In Monday’s session, investors will focus on the US Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and the revised S&P Global Manufacturing PMI data for January. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is estimated to have improved to 49.5, still below the 50.0 threshold that separates expansion from contraction, from 49.3 in December, suggesting that factory activities contracted but at a slower pace. Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling will be influenced by BoE’s policy decision The Pound Sterling exhibits a mixed performance against its major peers on Monday as investors focus on the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy decision, which will be announced on Thursday. Trades are confident that the BoE will reduce interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.50%. Of the nine-member-led Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), seven members are expected to vote for a 25 bps interest rate reduction, while two are expected to favor keeping interest rates unchanged. BoE policymaker Catherine Mann, who has been an outspoken hawk, is anticipated to be one of those two members. Market participants are confident about the BoE reducing interest rates on the back of a slowdown in the United Kingdom (UK) inflationary pressures and growing risks of soft labor demand. The UK core Consumer Price Index (CPI) – which excludes volatile items prices such as energy and food – decelerated to 3.2% in December. The labor market data for the three months ending November showed that the economy added 35K new workers as business owners slowed the hiring process due to dissatisfaction over Chancellor of the Exchequer Raches Reevers’s announcement of raising employers’ contribution to National Insurance (NI). Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling plunges below 1.2300The Pound Sterling falls back to near 1.2250 after failing to extend recovery above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 1.2500, last week. The near-term outlook of the Cable has turned bearish as it slides below the 20-day EMA, which hovers around 1.2388. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) drops to near 40.00. Should the pair face bearish momentum if the RSI dives below that level Looking down, the January 13 low of 1.2100 and the October 2023 low of 1.2050 will act as key support zones for the pair. On the upside, the December 30 high of 1.2607 will act as key resistance. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

09:45 ECB's Villeroy: There will likely be further rate cuts
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Monday that US President Donald Trump's tariffs will increase economic uncertainty, calling it a "very worrying development," as reported by Reuters.

09:30 Sweden Purchasing Managers Index Manufacturing (MoM) increased to 52.9 in January from previous 52.4
Sweden Purchasing Managers Index Manufacturing (MoM) increased to 52.9 in January from previous 52.4

09:28 USD/CAD advances to near 1.4700 following Trump tariffs on Canadian imports
The USD/CAD pair gains strength for the sixth consecutive day, trading around 1.4710 during the early European hours on Monday.

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The pair has risen by over 1% following US President Donald Trump's 25% import tariff on Canada. Additionally, Canadian energy exports will face a 10% tariff, according to Reuters. The US also imposed 25% tariffs on Mexican goods on Saturday, while Chinese exports will face a 10% tariff. These tariffs are set to begin on Tuesday and will remain in place until the fentanyl overdose crisis is resolved. In response, Canada, Mexico, and China have promised to retaliate against the extensive trade restrictions. China's foreign ministry warned that the tariffs would inevitably affect future cooperation on drug control, per Reuters. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, rises for the fifth consecutive day and is trading around 109.50 at the time of writing. The ISM Manufacturing PMI for January will be closely watched during the North American session. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned Key Square Capital Management partners a year ago that “tariffs are inflationary and would strengthen the US Dollar—hardly a good starting point for a US industrial renaissance.” However, according to the Financial Times (FT), Bessent last week supported new universal tariffs on US imports, proposing an initial 2.5% rate that would gradually increase. The USD/CAD pair appreciates due to the interest rate differential between the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Last week, the BoC reduced its key interest rate by 25 bps to 3.0% and ended its quantitative tightening program, indicating plans to resume asset purchases in early March. Meanwhile, the Fed has chosen to keep its interest rates unchanged. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

09:19 Forex Today: US Dollar rallies as Trump delivers on tariff threats
Here is what you need to know on Monday, February 3: The US Dollar (USD) gathers strength on the first trading day of February as markets adopt a cautious stance in reaction to US President Donald Trump's tariff announcements.

09:02 Turkey Consumer Price Index (MoM) registered at 5.03% above expectations (4.35%) in January
Turkey Consumer Price Index (MoM) registered at 5.03% above expectations (4.35%) in January

09:01 Turkey Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 42.12%, above forecasts (41.25%) in January
Turkey Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 42.12%, above forecasts (41.25%) in January

08:53 USD/CHF gains momentum above 0.9150 as Trump's tariff war escalates
The USD/CHF pair extends the rally to near 0.9165 during the early European trading hours on Monday.

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The Greenback gains up to 0.60% against the Swiss franc (CHF), reaching a peak not seen since May 2024. The move comes after Trump put 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada on Saturday, as well as a fresh 10% levy on Chinese products.

However, the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday, citing unnamed sources, that the Chinese government is preparing an opening bid to try to head off greater tariff increases and technology restrictions from the Trump administration, indicating that China is keen to begin trade discussions. Investors will closely monitor the development surrounding trade tariff policies. Any sign of a renewed trade war between the US and trading partners could boost the US Dollar against its rivals.

Data released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported on Friday showed that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 2.6% YoY in December versus 2.4% in November. This figure came in line with the market consensus. Meanwhile, the core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, climbed 2.8% YoY in December, matching November's reading and the estimation.

This US inflation report suggested that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) would probably be in no hurry to resume cutting interest rates, supporting the USD. Investors pared expectations of rate reductions from the Fed, pricing in 54% odds of two cuts this year and 44% for just one in the wake of the tariff news.

On the Swiss front, the country’s Real Retail Sales rose by 2.6% YoY in December versus 1.4% (revised from 0.8%) prior, according to the Federal Statistical Office on Friday. This reading came in hotter than the 0.6% expected. Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.

08:31 Japan’s Akazawa: Underlying inflation is approaching 2%
Japan's Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa said on Monday that the officials aim to reach the 2% Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) inflation goal and plan measures to mitigate the impact of increasing living costs.

08:00 Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI climbed from previous 50.8 to 53.1 in January
Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI climbed from previous 50.8 to 53.1 in January

08:00 Netherlands, The Markit Manufacturing PMI fell from previous 48.6 to 48.4 in January
Netherlands, The Markit Manufacturing PMI fell from previous 48.6 to 48.4 in January

07:31 Australia RBA Commodity Index SDR (YoY) dipped from previous -10.7% to -11.9% in January
Australia RBA Commodity Index SDR (YoY) dipped from previous -10.7% to -11.9% in January

07:31 Netherlands, The Retail Sales (YoY) down to 0.1% in December from previous 2.7%
Netherlands, The Retail Sales (YoY) down to 0.1% in December from previous 2.7%

07:28 AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Bonces off multi-month low; remains vulnerable near 95.20 area
The AUD/JPY cross attracts heavy selling at the start of a new week and dives to its lowest level since September 2024, around the 94.70-94.65 region during the Asian session.

07:27 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD retreats below $31.00 as US Dollar climbs on Trump tariffs
Silver price (XAG/USD) tumbles to near $30.90 during the early European trading hours on Monday.

07:16 EUR/USD Price Analysis: Falls toward 1.0200 near 27-month lows
The EUR/USD pair continues its downward trend, which started on January 27, trading around 1.0230 during the Asian session on Monday.

07:12 Beijing prepares its opening bid to discuss trade with Trump
Reuters has reported, citing unnamed sources, that Beijing is preparing an opening bid to try to head off greater tariff increases and technology restrictions from the Trump administration, indicating that China is keen to begin trade discussions.

07:02 India HSBC Manufacturing PMI came in at 57.7 below forecasts (57.8) in January
India HSBC Manufacturing PMI came in at 57.7 below forecasts (57.8) in January

06:44 Gold price drifts lower as USD jumps closer to two-year top after Trump’s new tariffs
Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts heavy selling at the start of a new week and moves away from a fresh all-time peak, around the $2,717 region touched on Friday.

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Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts heavy selling at the start of a new week and moves away from a fresh all-time peak, around the $2,717 region touched on Friday. US President Donald Trump's decision to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China lifts the US Dollar (USD) back closer to over a two-year high, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor weighing on the commodity. Apart from this, speculations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could delay cutting interest rates for some time this year amid a rise in prices and surging consumer spending contribute to driving flows away from the non-yielding yellow metal. Markets, however, are still pricing in the possibility that the US central bank will lower borrowing costs twice by the end of 2025. Furthermore, concerns about the potential economic fallout from Trump's trade policies and the risk-off impulse could offer some support to the safe-haven Gold price. This, in turn, makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before confirming that the XAU/USD has topped out in the near term. Traders now look to key US macro data scheduled at the beginning of a new month, starting with the ISM Manufacturing PMI, for a fresh directional impetus. Gold price is weighed down by Trump’s tariff-inspired USD upsurge; downside seems limited The US Dollar (USD) spiked in reaction to US President Donald Trump's move to impose a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican imports, and a 10% tariff on goods from China, which, in turn, weighed heavily on the Gold price. The US Commerce Department reported on Friday that inflation closed out 2024 on a strong note and consumer spending surged in December, pushing back expectations for more aggressive easing by the Federal Reserve. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index edged higher to 2.6% on a yearly basis in December from 2.4%, while the core gauge climbed 2.8%, matching November's reading and consensus estimates. Moreover, investors remain worried that Trump's new tariffs, if sustained, could significantly worsen inflation in the US and validate hawkish Fed expectations, further undermining the non-yielding yellow metal. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who pushed for new universal tariffs on US imports to start at 2.5% and rise gradually, said that tariffs are inflationary and would continue to strengthen the US Dollar. Trump's demand for lower interest rates, along with the prospects for further policy easing by the Fed, keeps the US Treasury bond yields depressed and could help limit any meaningful downside for the commodity. Furthermore, worries that Trump's new tariffs could impact the global economy temper investors' appetite for riskier assets and warrant some caution before placing bearish bets around the safe-haven XAU/USD. Traders now look to this week's important US macro data scheduled for the beginning of a new month, starting with the release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI, to determine the near-term trajectory for the precious metal. Gold price could extend the intraday decline once the $2,772 immediate support is brokenFrom a technical perspective, the intraday slide finds some support near the $2,772 horizontal resistance breakpoint. The said area should now act as a key pivotal point, which if broken might prompt some technical selling and drag the Gold price to the next relevant support near the $2,755 region. The corrective decline could extend further towards the $2,740 intermediate support en route to the $2,725-2,720 area. This is followed by the $2,700 round figure, which if broken decisively could pave the way for deeper losses. On the flip side, the $2,790-2,800 zone now seems to act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the record high, around the $2,817 region. Given that oscillators on the daily chart are holding comfortably in positive territory and are still away from being in the overbought zone, some follow-through buying will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders. This, in turn, will set the stage for an extension of the recent well-established uptrend from the December monthly swing low. US Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 1.35% 1.16% 0.44% 0.35% 1.60% 1.05% 0.11% EUR -1.35% 0.20% 0.40% 0.30% 0.70% 1.00% 0.06% GBP -1.16% -0.20% -0.88% 0.10% 0.50% 0.79% -0.14% JPY -0.44% -0.40% 0.88% -0.09% 1.30% 1.51% 0.30% CAD -0.35% -0.30% -0.10% 0.09% 0.15% 0.69% -0.24% AUD -1.60% -0.70% -0.50% -1.30% -0.15% 0.29% -0.64% NZD -1.05% -1.00% -0.79% -1.51% -0.69% -0.29% -0.92% CHF -0.11% -0.06% 0.14% -0.30% 0.24% 0.64% 0.92% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.

06:39 FX option expiries for Feb 3 NY cut
FX option expiries for Feb 3 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

FX option expiries for Feb 3 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below. EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.0325 1.5b 1.0400 1.8b 1.0425 1b GBP/USD: GBP amounts 1.2650 428m USD/JPY: USD amounts 155.00 646m USD/CAD: USD amounts 1.4300 718m 1.4400 2b 1.4500 852m USD/CNY: USD amounts 7.2500 405m 7.3000 903m 7.3500 606m

06:36 India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices fell in India on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

06:29 USD/MXN rises above 21.00 as Trump imposes tariffs on Mexican imports
USD/MXN hits the week by extending its gains for the third successive session, trading near 21.20 during the Asian hours on Monday.

06:14 Indonesia Core Inflation (YoY) above forecasts (2.3%) in January: Actual (2.36%)
Indonesia Core Inflation (YoY) above forecasts (2.3%) in January: Actual (2.36%)

06:04 Indonesia Inflation (MoM) registered at -0.76%, below expectations (0.32%) in January
Indonesia Inflation (MoM) registered at -0.76%, below expectations (0.32%) in January

05:19 WTI trades around $73.00, upside appears due to potential supply concerns
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price edges lower to near $73.00 per barrel during the Asian session on Monday.

05:06 USD/INR jumps as Trump signs orders imposing tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China
The Indian Rupee (INR) tumbles on Monday. Trump’s announcement of the imposition of tariffs on major trading partners including China, Canada, and Mexico exert some selling pressure on the local currency.

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On the other hand, the foreign exchange intervention from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) should defend the Rupee and cap its downside. Later on Monday, traders will keep an eye on the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for January. Indian Rupee remains under selling pressure amid fears of a trade war India's foreign exchange reserves were down to $629.557 billion as of January 30, 2024, from $701.176 billion on October 4, 2024. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said in the budget on Friday that the Indian government will target a narrower fiscal deficit of 4.4% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for fiscal year 2025-26, down from a revised 4.8% for the current year. The government increased gross borrowing to 14.82 trillion rupees ($171.26 billion) from the market to fund the deficit, compared with 14.01 trillion rupees in the current year. The White House said on Saturday that a levy of 25% on Canadian and Mexican imports as well as an additional 10% tax on Chinese goods would come into force on Tuesday. Canada, Mexico and China have vowed to respond to sweeping new tariffs on their exports to the US announced by Trump. "Tariff announcement is necessary to hold China, Mexico, and Canada accountable for their promises to halt the flood of poisonous drugs into the United States," the White House said in a statement on X on Saturday. USD/INR seeks a new all-time high The Indian Rupee trades on a weaker note on the day. The USD/INR pair maintains a constructive outlook on the daily chart as the price is above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The upward momentum is supported by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is located above the midline near 63.20, suggesting that the support is likely to hold rather than break.

The 87.00 psychological mark acts as a first upside barrier for the pair. Sustained gains above this level could see a run to 87.50.

On the other hand, the initial support level emerges at 86.51, the low of January 31. A decisive break below this level could expose 86.31, the low of January 28. Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.

04:56 US Senator McConnell objects to tariffs pushed by President Trump
US Senior Republican Senator Mitch McConnell said in an American TV show '60 Minutes' late Sunday, he objects to tariffs pushed by President Donald Trump.

04:50 Japanese Yen slides to near one-week low against USD after Trump’s new tariffs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) drifts lower against its American counterpart for the second straight day on Monday and moves away from over a one-month high touched last week.

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The narrowing US-Japan rate differential might also contribute to cap the USD/JPY pair. The Japanese Yen (JPY) drifts lower against its American counterpart for the second straight day on Monday and moves away from over a one-month high touched last week. Concerns about the economic fallout from US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs to a large extent, overshadow the hawkish Bank of Japan (BoJ) Summary of Opinions and undermine the JPY. Apart from this, a broad-based US Dollar (USD) rally pushes the USD/JPY pair to the 156.00 neighborhood, or a four-day top during the Asian session. Meanwhile, a rise in Tokyo's core inflation by the fastest annual pace in nearly a year keeps market expectations for further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Moreover, a fresh wave of the global risk-aversion trade, along with the narrowing interest rate differentials between Japan and the rest of the world, could offer support to the safe-haven JPY. Adding to this, the recent decline in the US Treasury bond yields might hold back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets and cap gains for the USD/JPY pair. Japanese Yen is weighed down by concerns about the impact of Trump’s trade tariffs US President Donald Trump signed an order on Saturday to impose 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports and 10% on goods from China starting on Tuesday. Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum, and China's foreign ministry were quick to respond with the upcoming tit-for-tat moves. The US Dollar rallies across the board and advances back closer to over a two-year high touched in January, which assists the USD/JPY pair to build on Friday's move up. The Bank of Japan's Summary of Opinions released earlier this Monday showed that policymakers discussed the likelihood of raising rates further at the January meeting. BoJ board members reiterated that it will be necessary to continue hiking rates, if economic activity and prices remain on track, though it does little to boost the Japanese Yen. Japan's Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said that the government intends to monitor the impact of Trump's new tariffs on its currency amid worries about the fallout. The US-Japan yield differential hovers near a multi-week low. This, along with the risk-off impulse, could help limit a further JPY depreciation in the near term. Traders now look forward to this week's important US macro releases scheduled at the start of a new month, starting with the ISM Manufacturing PMI later today. The focus, however, will remain glued to the US monthly employment data – popularly known as the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report due for release on Friday. USD/JPY might struggle to capitalize on the positive move beyond the 156.25 resistanceFrom a technical perspective, last week's goodish rebound from the 50% retracement level of the December-January rally and the subsequent move up favor bullish traders. That said, any further strength beyond the 156.00 mark might confront some hurdle near last week's swing high, around the 156.25 area. A sustained strength beyond the said barrier could trigger a fresh bout of a short-covering rally and lift the USD/JPY pair to the 156.70-156.75 region en route to the 157.00 round figure and the 157.60 horizontal barrier. The momentum could extend further towards the 158.00 mark, above which spot prices could aim to retest the multi-month top, around the 158.85-158.90 region touched on January 10. On the flip side, the 155.00 psychological mark now seems to protect the immediate downside ahead of the 154.55-154.50 horizontal zone and the 154.00 round figure. This is closely followed by the January monthly trough, around the 153.70 area touched last Monday. A convincing break below the latter would be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and make the USD/JPY pair vulnerable to accelerate the fall further towards the 153.30 support. Spot prices could eventually drop to the 153.00 mark. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.

04:17 Australian Dollar remains tepid due to Trump tariffs, China’s PMI
The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends its losing streak against the US Dollar (USD) for the sixth consecutive session on Monday.

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The AUD/USD pair dropped over 1% amid risk-off sentiment following US President Donald Trump’s decision to impose import tariffs on China, one of Australia’s key trading partners. On Saturday, the US announced plans to implement 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods, while Chinese exports would face a 10% tariff, according to Bloomberg. These tariffs, set to take effect on Tuesday, will remain in place until the fentanyl overdose crisis is "resolved." In response, Canada, Mexico, and China have vowed to retaliate against the broad trade restrictions. China’s foreign ministry warned that the tariffs would inevitably impact future cooperation on drug control. Meanwhile, Australia’s Retail Sales declined by 0.1% month-on-month in December 2024, marking the first drop in nine months. Although the decline was less severe than the anticipated 0.7% contraction, it highlights weakening consumer spending, increasing speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may consider a rate cut in February. China's Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined to 50.1 in January, down from 50.5 in December. The reading fell short of market expectations, which had anticipated a steady 50.5. Australian Dollar loses ground as Trump initiates trade war The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the US Dollar’s value against six major currencies, rises for the fifth successive day and trades above 109.50 at the time of writing. ISM Manufacturing PMI for January will be eyed later on Monday. The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 0.3% MoM in December, up from 0.1% in November. On an annual basis, PCE inflation accelerated to 2.6% from the previous 2.4%, while core PCE, which excludes food and energy, remained steady at 2.8% YoY for the third straight month. The Department of Commerce reported that Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q4) fell to 2.3% from 3.1%, missing expectations of 2.6%. Additionally, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending January 24 came in at 207K, below forecasts of 220K but an improvement from the previous week’s 223K. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized during the post-meeting press conference that the central bank would need to see “real progress on inflation or some weakness in the labor market” before considering any further adjustments to monetary policy. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned Key Square Capital Management partners a year ago that “tariffs are inflationary and would strengthen the US Dollar—hardly a good starting point for a US industrial renaissance.” However, according to the Financial Times (FT), Bessent last week advocated for new universal tariffs on US imports, proposing an initial 2.5% rate that would gradually increase. President Trump announced his threat on X (formerly Twitter) to levy 100% tariffs on BRICS nations if they attempt to introduce an alternative currency to challenge the US dollar in international trade. Australia’s Retail Sales increased by 4.6% year-over-year compared to December 2023. On a seasonally adjusted basis, sales rose 1.0% QoQ in the December quarter of 2024. ANZ, CBA, Westpac, and now National Australia Bank (NAB) all anticipate a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in February. Previously, the NAB had forecasted a rate cut in May but has now moved its projection forward to the February RBA meeting. The Reserve Bank of Australia released its January 2025 Bulletin, featuring a detailed analysis of how monetary policy changes influence interest rates in the economy and how fluctuations in interest rates impact economic activity and inflation. Australian Dollar breaks below descending channel’s lower boundary AUD/USD hovers around 0.6130 on Monday, trading below the descending channel pattern on the daily chart, signaling a strengthening bearish bias. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped near the 30 mark, reinforcing the ongoing downside momentum. On the downside, the AUD/USD pair could test the psychological support level of 0.6131, last seen in April 2020. Alternatively, if the pair attempts a rebound, it may re-enter the descending channel and target the upper boundary, which aligns with the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6217. AUD/USD: Daily ChartAustralian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 1.32% 0.97% 0.55% 0.36% 1.85% 1.14% 0.08% EUR -1.32% 0.05% 0.56% 0.35% 0.99% 1.13% 0.07% GBP -0.97% -0.05% -0.61% 0.29% 0.94% 1.08% 0.02% JPY -0.55% -0.56% 0.61% -0.19% 1.45% 1.51% 0.18% CAD -0.36% -0.35% -0.29% 0.19% 0.38% 0.78% -0.27% AUD -1.85% -0.99% -0.94% -1.45% -0.38% 0.14% -0.91% NZD -1.14% -1.13% -1.08% -1.51% -0.78% -0.14% -1.05% CHF -0.08% -0.07% -0.02% -0.18% 0.27% 0.91% 1.05% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

03:59 NZD/USD attracts some sellers to below 0.5550 amid US tariff trade tensions, weaker Chinese PMI data
The NZD/USD pair faces some selling pressure to near 0.5545 during the Asian trading hours on Monday.

03:46 China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI falls to 50.1 in January vs. 50.5 expected
China's Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped to 50.1 in January from December’s 50.5, the latest data showed on Thursday.

03:45 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.1, below expectations (50.5) in January
China Caixin Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.1, below expectations (50.5) in January

03:03 USD/CAD jumps to near two-decade high, around mid-1.4700s on Trump’s trade tariffs
The USD/CAD pair builds on last week's breakout momentum above a short-term trading range and gains strong positive traction during the Asian session on Monday.

03:01 US Treasury Secretary Bessent: Tariffs are inflationary and would strengthen the Dollar
In a letter to Key Square Capital Management partners sent a year ago, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that “tariffs are inflationary and would strengthen the dollar—hardly a good starting point for a US industrial renaissance.” Last month, Bessent pushed for new universal tariffs on US imports to start at 2.5% and rise gradually, per the Financial Times (FT).

02:50 GBP/USD falls below 1.2300 following Trump tariffs
GBP/USD continues its decline for the fifth consecutive session, hovering around 1.2270 during Monday’s Asian trading hours.

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The pair has weakened by around 1% as the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the US Dollar (USD) against six major peers, gains strength following US President Donald Trump’s tariffs against China, Canada, and Mexico. On Saturday, the US informed that it would impose 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods, while Chinese exports would face a 10% tariff. Additionally, Canadian energy exports will be subject to a 10% tariff, according to CTV. These tariffs are set to take effect on Tuesday and will remain in place until the fentanyl overdose crisis is "sorted." In response, Canada, Mexico, and China have pledged retaliatory measures against the sweeping new trade restrictions. Meanwhile, US inflation data reinforced the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish stance on the monetary policy outlook. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 0.3% MoM in December, up from 0.1% in November. On an annual basis, PCE inflation accelerated to 2.6% from the previous 2.4%, while core PCE, which excludes food and energy, remained steady at 2.8% YoY for the third straight month. The Pound Sterling (GBP) faces additional downside risks as traders anticipate the Bank of England (BoE) will restart its policy-easing cycle, likely cutting interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.5% in February. Investors are closely watching the BoE’s monetary policy decision next Thursday, with expectations that policymakers may adopt a dovish stance, given recent signs of slowing inflation, despite continued wage growth acceleration. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

02:44 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD drifts lower below $2,800 after Trump imposes tariffs
Gold price (XAU/USD) edges lower to around $2,795 during the early Asian session on Monday.

02:36 Australia’s Retail Sales decline 0.1 % MoM in December vs. -0.7% expected
Australia’s Retail Sales, a measure of the country’s consumer spending, declined 0.1% MoM in December, compared to an increase of 0.8% in November, the official data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed on Monday.

02:33 EUR/USD slumps to 1.0200 neighborhood, multi-week low on Trump’s trade tariffs
The EUR/USD pair attracts heavy follow-through selling on Monday and dives to the 1.0200 neighborhood, or a three-week low during the early Asian session.

02:32 Australia ANZ Job Advertisements fell from previous 0.3% to 0.2% in January
Australia ANZ Job Advertisements fell from previous 0.3% to 0.2% in January

02:32 Australia Building Permits (YoY) rose from previous 3.2% to 12.2% in December
Australia Building Permits (YoY) rose from previous 3.2% to 12.2% in December

02:31 Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI registered at 48.7, below expectations (48.8) in January
Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI registered at 48.7, below expectations (48.8) in January

02:30 South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI up to 50.3 in January from previous 49
South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI up to 50.3 in January from previous 49

02:30 Australia Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) above expectations (-0.7%) in December: Actual (-0.1%)
Australia Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) above expectations (-0.7%) in December: Actual (-0.1%)

02:30 Australia Building Permits (MoM) below forecasts (1%) in December: Actual (0.7%)
Australia Building Permits (MoM) below forecasts (1%) in December: Actual (0.7%)

02:09 BoJ Summary of Opinions: Member sees rising price trend towards 2% target
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) published the Summary of Opinions from its January monetary policy meeting, with the key findings noted below.

01:22 AUD/USD falls to near 0.6150 after Trump sets tariffs
The AUD/USD pair attracts some sellers to near 0.6155 during the early Asian session on Monday.

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The AUD/USD pair attracts some sellers to near 0.6155 during the early Asian session on Monday. The weakening of the Australian Dollar (AUD) is pressured by US President Donald Trump’s threat to hit China, Canada, and Mexico with tariffs. Later on Monday, China’s Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for January will be released.

On Saturday, the White House said that it will impose tariffs of 25% on goods coming from Canada and Mexico while hitting China with a 10% levy, starting Tuesday, per Bloomberg. Canada, Mexico and China vowed to respond to sweeping new tariffs on their exports to the US. China’s foreign ministry noted tariffs will inevitably affect future cooperation on drug control. Trump tariff threats exert some selling pressure on China-proxy Aussie as China is a major trading partner of Australia.

Furthermore, rising bets that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will cut the interest rate might contribute to the AUD’s downside. According to the Bloomberg survey on Friday, Twenty of 23 respondents expect the RBA will lower its cash rate to 4.10% on February 18. Financial markets are now pricing in nearly 90% odds of a reduction.

Traders brace for the release of China’s January Caixin Manufacturing PMI, which is due later on Monday. If the report shows a stronger-than-expected outcome, this could help limit the AUD’s losses. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

01:00 South Korea Industrial Output (YoY) registered at 5.3% above expectations (0.7%) in December
South Korea Industrial Output (YoY) registered at 5.3% above expectations (0.7%) in December

01:00 South Korea Service Sector Output rose from previous -0.2% to 1.7% in December
South Korea Service Sector Output rose from previous -0.2% to 1.7% in December

01:00 South Korea Industrial Output Growth above forecasts (0.4%) in December: Actual (4.6%)
South Korea Industrial Output Growth above forecasts (0.4%) in December: Actual (4.6%)

00:54 US President Donald Trump initiates trade war, signing order hitting Canada, Mexico and China
On Saturday, Canada was notified that the United States will place 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico while China will be hit with 10% tariffs.

00:01 Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI: 50.2 (January) vs 49.8
Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI: 50.2 (January) vs 49.8

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Forex News Timeline

23:38 NZD/USD Price Analysis: Pair tumbles to fresh multi-month low before paring losses The NZD/USD pair extended its downward trajectory on Monday, falling sharply to 0.5515, its lowest point in over a year, before managing a slight rebound to settle at 0.5595.

23:06 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD climb amid rising global trade tensions Silver prices advance late in the North American session on Monday, up 0.71%, as trade tensions between the US, Canada, China, and the Eurozone (EU) rise.

22:35 Australian Dollar struggles amid tariff tensions but shows signs of cautious recovery The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends its losing streak against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday as the pair tests critical support near 0.6250.

22:33 USD/CHF Price Analysis: Clings to gains as trade tensions begin to fade The USD/CHF trims some gains after reaching a three-week high of 0.9195.

22:00 GBP/USD spins in a giant circle on Monday GBP/USD roiled on Monday, tumbling 1.5% during the overnight session before recovering back to flat for the day at the 1.2400 handle.

21:51 Gold price surges to record high amidst US tariffs Gold price hit a record high on Monday after the US initially scheduled tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, sparking flows toward the non-yielding metal's safe-haven appeal.

20:21 US Dollar gains after Trump’s tariff escalation The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against a basket of currencies, retreats slightly after failing to test the 110.00 level but remains well-supported above 108.00.

19:55 Fed's Bostic: Job market remains solid, but tariffs add uncertainty Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic noted on Monday that although the US labor market remains surprisingly resilient, tariff threats throw a wrench in outlook expectations.

18:06 EUR/USD Price Analysis: Pair trims losses after sharp drop, remains below 20-day SMA The EUR/USD pair continued its downward trajectory on Monday, slipping to a low around 1.0200 before staging a brief rebound to 1.0300.

17:24 USD/JPY pulls back as trade tensions stir market uncertainty The USD/JPY retreated from daily highs of 155.86 hit after US President Donald Trump advanced on its protectionist policies, enacting tariffs in Canada, Mexico, and China.

17:00 United States ISM Manufacturing PMI registered at 50.9 above expectations (49.8) in January United States ISM Manufacturing PMI registered at 50.9 above expectations (49.8) in January

17:00 United States Construction Spending (MoM) above forecasts (0.1%) in December: Actual (0.5%) United States Construction Spending (MoM) above forecasts (0.1%) in December: Actual (0.5%)

17:00 United States ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid came in at 54.9, above expectations (52.6) in January United States ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid came in at 54.9, above expectations (52.6) in January

17:00 United States ISM Manufacturing Employment Index up to 50.3 in January from previous 45.3 United States ISM Manufacturing Employment Index up to 50.3 in January from previous 45.3

17:00 United States ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index climbed from previous 52.5 to 55.1 in January United States ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index climbed from previous 52.5 to 55.1 in January

16:54 Trump fires first salvo in multifront trade war – Danske Bank Trump fired the first shot in a multifront trade war on Saturday when tariffs on

16:49 DXY: Signals of a deeper decline are not yet visible – BBH The Dollar Index (DXY) has rebounded after probing the upper part of previous multi-month range at 107, BBH FX analysts report.

16:45 United States S&P Global Manufacturing PMI came in at 51.2, above forecasts (50.1) in January United States S&P Global Manufacturing PMI came in at 51.2, above forecasts (50.1) in January

16:30 Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI declined to 51.6 in January from previous 52.2 Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI declined to 51.6 in January from previous 52.2

16:02 Metal commodities have come under pressure – ING US President Donald Trump carried out his threat over the weekend and imposed tariffs of 25% on Canada and Mexico and 10% on China, starting on Tuesday.

15:59 GBP/USD holds up relatively better than peers – Scotiabank The Pound Sterling (GBP) is weaker on the session but it has held up a little better than its G10 peers, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

15:46 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD recovers above $2,800 as USD gives up some gains Gold price (XAU/USD) recovers its intraday losses and turns positive in Monday’s North American session.

15:21 USD/JPY: Bias for USD is tilted to the upside – UOB Group Upward momentum is beginning to build; US Dollar (USD) is likely to rise above 156.00 but is unlikely to reach 156.80.

15:16 USD surge over the weekend moderates in early trade – Scotiabank The first real shots of a global trade war were fired at the weekend, with President Trump levying 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, an additional 10% on Chinese goods and telling Europe that tariffs are 'absolutely' coming.

15:00 Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI increased to 50.7 in January from previous 50.4 Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI increased to 50.7 in January from previous 50.4

15:00 Singapore Purchasing Managers Index fell from previous 51.1 to 50.9 in January Singapore Purchasing Managers Index fell from previous 51.1 to 50.9 in January

14:27 South Africa Total New Vehicle Sales increased to 46.4 in January from previous 41.27 South Africa Total New Vehicle Sales increased to 46.4 in January from previous 41.27

13:47 AUD/USD Price Forecast: Posts fresh four-year low near 0.6100 The AUD/USD pair recovers slightly after plummeting to a fresh four-year low near 0.6100 but is still more than 1.10% down in Monday’s European session.

13:12 AUD/USD to drop further – UOB Group Chance for Australian Dollar (AUD) to drop further; given the deeply oversold conditions, a sustained decline below 0.6080 appears unlikely today.

13:04 USD: Trump delivers new tariffs – ING Saturday's announcement that Washington would go into full tariff mode against Mexico and Canada starting tomorrow has come as a surprise to FX markets.

12:34 NZD/USD recovers some intraday losses, remains bearish as Trump imposes tariffs on China The NZD/USD pair pares some intraday losses after nosediving to an over-two-year low near 0.5516 in Monday’s European session.

12:15 Germany’s Scholz: EU can react with its own tariffs but cooperation is more important German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on Monday, the European Union (EU) can react with its own tariffs but cooperation is more important.

12:13 EUR/USD slumps by over 1% as US President Trump reiterates tariff threats on Eurozone EUR/USD nosedives over 1% to near 1.0240 at the start of the week.

12:01 Eurozone Preliminary HICP inflation rises to 2.5% YoY in January, as expected The Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) advanced at an annual rate of 2.5% in January after increasing 2.4% in December, the official data released by Eurostat showed Monday.

12:00 Italy Consumer Price Index (MoM) above expectations (0.4%) in January: Actual (0.6%) Italy Consumer Price Index (MoM) above expectations (0.4%) in January: Actual (0.6%)

12:00 Italy Consumer Price Index (YoY) climbed from previous 1.3% to 1.5% in January Italy Consumer Price Index (YoY) climbed from previous 1.3% to 1.5% in January

12:00 Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM) dipped from previous 0.1% to -0.7% in January Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM) dipped from previous 0.1% to -0.7% in January

12:00 Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY) increased to 1.7% in January from previous 1.4% Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY) increased to 1.7% in January from previous 1.4%

12:00 Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): -1% (January) vs previous 0.5% Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): -1% (January) vs previous 0.5%

12:00 Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) declined to -0.3% in January from previous 0.4% Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) declined to -0.3% in January from previous 0.4%

12:00 Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) in line with forecasts (2.5%) in January Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) in line with forecasts (2.5%) in January

12:00 Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) came in at 2.7%, above expectations (2.6%) in January Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) came in at 2.7%, above expectations (2.6%) in January

11:58 GBP: Briefly out of the line of fire – ING Sterling has been one of the least badly hit G10 currencies, arguably because the UK runs a trade deficit with the US and goods exports to GDP are relatively small, ING’s FX analysts Chris Turner notes.

11:55 GBP/USD: Sharp drop in GBP has scope to extend – UOB Group Sharp drop in GBP has scope to extend; the 1.2245 level is expected to provide support. In the longer run, GBP is likely to trade with a downward bias towards 1.2245, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

11:47 EUR: A clean negative – ING The growing prospect of a global trade war and tariffs heading towards the EU is a clean euro negative, ING’s FX analysts Chris Turner notes.

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI above expectations (48.2) in January: Actual (48.3) United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI above expectations (48.2) in January: Actual (48.3)

11:30 Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Monday, according to FXStreet data.

11:16 ECB's Šimkus: Expect a 25 bps decrease in March European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Gediminas Šimkus said on Monday that he sees another 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut in March.

11:10 ECB's Kazimir: Latest rate cut moves us closer to our destination European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Peter Kazimir said on Monday, “latest rate cut moves us closer to our destination.” Additional quotes But we are not quite there yet.

11:00 Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI dipped from previous 53.2 to 52.8 in January Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI dipped from previous 53.2 to 52.8 in January

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI came in at 46.6, above expectations (46.1) in January Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI came in at 46.6, above expectations (46.1) in January

11:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI set to show modest uptick in US factory activity in January Excitement is building as the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) prepares to release the January US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) this Monday.

10:55 Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI above expectations (44.1) in January: Actual (45) Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI above expectations (44.1) in January: Actual (45)

10:50 France HCOB Manufacturing PMI below expectations (45.3) in January: Actual (45) France HCOB Manufacturing PMI below expectations (45.3) in January: Actual (45)

10:45 Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI climbed from previous 46.2 to 46.3 in January Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI climbed from previous 46.2 to 46.3 in January

10:44 GBP/JPY trades around 191.50 after recovering recent losses GBP/JPY trims its recent losses, trading around 191.50 during the European hours on Monday.

10:30 Switzerland SVME - Purchasing Managers' Index registered at 47.5, below expectations (49) in January Switzerland SVME - Purchasing Managers' Index registered at 47.5, below expectations (49) in January

10:29 Austria Unemployment Rate up to 8.6% in January from previous 8.3% Austria Unemployment Rate up to 8.6% in January from previous 8.3%

10:29 Austria Unemployment climbed from previous 352.9K to 365.7K in January Austria Unemployment climbed from previous 352.9K to 365.7K in January

10:15 EUR/GBP holds losses below 0.8350, downside seems restrained due to dovish BoE EUR/GBP trades around 0.8330 during the European session on Monday after recovering some part of its daily losses.

10:15 Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI declined to 50.9 in January from previous 53.3 Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI declined to 50.9 in January from previous 53.3

10:01 Pound Sterling dives against USD as US President Trump begins global trade war The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades significantly lower to near 1.2250 against the US Dollar (USD) in Monday’s European session.

09:45 ECB's Villeroy: There will likely be further rate cuts European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Monday that US President Donald Trump's tariffs will increase economic uncertainty, calling it a "very worrying development," as reported by Reuters.

09:30 Sweden Purchasing Managers Index Manufacturing (MoM) increased to 52.9 in January from previous 52.4 Sweden Purchasing Managers Index Manufacturing (MoM) increased to 52.9 in January from previous 52.4

09:28 USD/CAD advances to near 1.4700 following Trump tariffs on Canadian imports The USD/CAD pair gains strength for the sixth consecutive day, trading around 1.4710 during the early European hours on Monday.

09:19 Forex Today: US Dollar rallies as Trump delivers on tariff threats Here is what you need to know on Monday, February 3: The US Dollar (USD) gathers strength on the first trading day of February as markets adopt a cautious stance in reaction to US President Donald Trump's tariff announcements.

09:02 Turkey Consumer Price Index (MoM) registered at 5.03% above expectations (4.35%) in January Turkey Consumer Price Index (MoM) registered at 5.03% above expectations (4.35%) in January

09:01 Turkey Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 42.12%, above forecasts (41.25%) in January Turkey Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 42.12%, above forecasts (41.25%) in January

08:53 USD/CHF gains momentum above 0.9150 as Trump's tariff war escalates The USD/CHF pair extends the rally to near 0.9165 during the early European trading hours on Monday.

08:31 Japan’s Akazawa: Underlying inflation is approaching 2% Japan's Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa said on Monday that the officials aim to reach the 2% Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) inflation goal and plan measures to mitigate the impact of increasing living costs.

08:00 Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI climbed from previous 50.8 to 53.1 in January Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI climbed from previous 50.8 to 53.1 in January

08:00 Netherlands, The Markit Manufacturing PMI fell from previous 48.6 to 48.4 in January Netherlands, The Markit Manufacturing PMI fell from previous 48.6 to 48.4 in January

07:31 Australia RBA Commodity Index SDR (YoY) dipped from previous -10.7% to -11.9% in January Australia RBA Commodity Index SDR (YoY) dipped from previous -10.7% to -11.9% in January

07:31 Netherlands, The Retail Sales (YoY) down to 0.1% in December from previous 2.7% Netherlands, The Retail Sales (YoY) down to 0.1% in December from previous 2.7%

07:28 AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Bonces off multi-month low; remains vulnerable near 95.20 area The AUD/JPY cross attracts heavy selling at the start of a new week and dives to its lowest level since September 2024, around the 94.70-94.65 region during the Asian session.

07:27 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD retreats below $31.00 as US Dollar climbs on Trump tariffs Silver price (XAG/USD) tumbles to near $30.90 during the early European trading hours on Monday.

07:16 EUR/USD Price Analysis: Falls toward 1.0200 near 27-month lows The EUR/USD pair continues its downward trend, which started on January 27, trading around 1.0230 during the Asian session on Monday.

07:02 India HSBC Manufacturing PMI came in at 57.7 below forecasts (57.8) in January India HSBC Manufacturing PMI came in at 57.7 below forecasts (57.8) in January

06:44 Gold price drifts lower as USD jumps closer to two-year top after Trump’s new tariffs Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts heavy selling at the start of a new week and moves away from a fresh all-time peak, around the $2,717 region touched on Friday.