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20:05 United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count up to 411 from previous 409
United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count up to 411 from previous 409

19:55 Dow Jones Industrial Average gives back recent gains as ceasefire doubts resurface
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slumped around 300 points on Friday, or roughly 0.6%, retreating from the 48,000 handle after two sessions of ceasefire-fueled gains.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Dow shed nearly 300 points on Friday as geopolitical jitters returned to the fore.March Consumer Price Index data came in as expected at 3.3% YoY, but remains well above the Fed's 2% target, keeping rate cut bets on ice.University of Michigan consumer sentiment collapsed to a record-low 47.6 in the preliminary April reading.Vice President Vance is heading to Islamabad for weekend peace talks with Iran, keeping traders on edge.The Dow Jones Industrial Average slumped around 300 points on Friday, or roughly 0.6%, retreating from the 48,000 handle after two sessions of ceasefire-fueled gains. The S&P 500 dipped 0.15% while the Nasdaq Composite bucked the trend, edging 0.2% higher as mega-cap tech provided a thin buffer against the broader selloff. The reversal came as fresh cracks in the US-Iran ceasefire spooked a market that had only just started to relax.Ceasefire optimism fades fastThe two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, announced on April 7, is already looking shaky. President Trump accused Iran of "doing a very poor job" of reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with only a handful of tankers allowed through since the deal was struck. Trump also warned Iran against charging fees to oil tankers transiting the strait. Overnight, Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah exchanged strikes in Lebanon, further undermining confidence in the agreement. Tehran's parliamentary speaker cited Israel's continued attacks on Lebanon as a violation of the ceasefire terms. On the other side, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said the country had agreed to negotiate with Lebanon, which helped stocks hold gains on Thursday. Vice President JD Vance departed for Islamabad on Friday to lead weekend negotiations, telling reporters the talks would be "positive" but warning that Iran would face consequences if it tried to "play" the US. Markets rallied hard on the ceasefire announcement earlier in the week, with the Dow posting its best single-day gain since April 2025 on Wednesday, so Friday's pullback reflects a natural unwinding of what was always a fragile trade.Hot CPI lands but core stays tameThe Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.9% MoM in March, pushing the annual rate to 3.3% YoY, the highest since May 2024. Both figures landed exactly in line with consensus, but the headline number is still running well above the Fed's 2% target, and that reality continues to hamper rate cut expectations. The spike was driven by a 10.9% jump in energy costs as the Iran conflict choked supply through the Strait of Hormuz, with gasoline prices alone surging over 21%. Stripping out food and energy, core CPI rose just 0.2% MoM and 2.6% YoY, actually coming in below expectations. Inflation had been sticky around 3% heading into the war, so the core print offers some reassurance that underlying price pressures have not deteriorated further. Tim Holland, chief investment officer at Orion, noted that the Fed will likely try to look past whatever data comes in for March and April, assuming there is an eventual off-ramp between the US, Israel, and Iran. With the Fed funds rate sitting at 3.5%-3.75% and the March dot plot showing only one cut expected this year, policymakers have some room to look through energy-driven noise, but that patience has limits if Oil stays elevated and the war premium starts bleeding into core components.Consumer sentiment hits rock bottomThe University of Michigan's (UoM) preliminary April consumer sentiment index cratered to 47.6, well below the 52.0 consensus and down from 53.3 in March. If confirmed, that would be the lowest reading on record, surpassing the trough hit during peak Biden-era inflation. One-year inflation expectations spiked to 4.8% from 3.8%, the biggest monthly jump since April 2025, while long-run expectations ticked up to 3.4%. Notably, 98% of survey responses were collected before the ceasefire announcement, so the next reading should capture any relief effect. Still, the damage to household confidence is real, with consumers citing soaring gas prices and volatile asset values as primary concerns.Oil stays front and centerWest Texas Intermediate (WTI) was last trading near $99 a barrel on Friday, with international benchmark Brent above $96. The ceasefire was supposed to ease the energy shock that has defined markets since the conflict began on February 28, but Iran's foot-dragging on Strait of Hormuz access has kept the war premium firmly intact. Gasoline at $4.30 per gallon is squeezing consumers and feeding directly into the inflation data. Airlines, which had rallied earlier in the week on hopes of cheaper jet fuel, gave back some gains. Until there is a verifiable, sustained reopening of shipping lanes, Oil is going to remain the dominant macro variable.Dow Jones 5-minute chart Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.

19:31 GBP/USD climbs as Pakistan talks boost risk mood
The GBP/USD climbed on Friday as risk appetite improved amid the start of US-Iran talks in Pakistan. Meanwhile, US inflation rose as expected in March, but traders seem confident it's a one-time jump as they remain optimistic about Middle East peace negotiations. The pair trades at 1.3461, up 0.20%.

19:20 USD/CAD trims losses as geopolitics overshadow US CPI and Canadian jobs data
USD/CAD reverses earlier losses on Wednesday, as uncertainty surrounding upcoming US-Iran negotiations keeps markets cautious and overshadows US inflation and Canadian employment data, keeping price action volatile.

USD/CAD trims earlier losses as cautious sentiment around US-Iran talks keeps markets volatile.Geopolitical risks remain the key driver, with fragile US-Iran ceasefire conditions and escalating rhetoric limiting downside in the US Dollar.US inflation rose in March, while Canada’s jobs data showed a modest rebound.USD/CAD reverses earlier losses on Wednesday, as uncertainty surrounding upcoming US-Iran negotiations keeps markets cautious and overshadows US inflation and Canadian employment data, keeping price action volatile. At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 1.3833 and is on track for its first weekly decline after two consecutive weeks of gains, as a modest improvement in the risk sentiment following the US-Iran ceasefire weighs on the US Dollar (USD), though lingering concerns over the ceasefire’s durability help limit further downside.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 98.70, heading for its biggest decline since January.The Canadian Dollar (CAD) strengthened earlier in the American session following the release of employment data, which pointed to a modest rebound in the labor market. Net employment rose by 14.1K in March, recovering from a sharp decline of 83.9K in the previous month, though slightly missing expectations of a 15K increase. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate held at 6.7%, coming in below expectations of 6.8%.From a monetary policy perspective, the latest labor market data is unlikely to materially shift the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) cautious stance. Policymakers kept rates steady at 2.25% at their last meeting and are expected to remain patient as they assess the impact of the recent Oil-driven inflation shock.In the United States, the impact of rising Oil prices was clearly evident in the latest inflation data. Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.9% MoM in March, accelerating sharply from 0.3% in the previous month. On an annual basis, inflation increased to 3.3% YoY from 2.4% in February, with both readings coming in line with market expectations. The firm headline inflation reading reinforces expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will remain on hold in the near term.Attention now turns squarely to the upcoming US-Iran negotiations scheduled for this weekend in Pakistan. Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said a ceasefire in Lebanon and the release of Iranian blocked assets must be secured before negotiations can proceed.Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump told The New York Post on Friday that US warships are being reloaded with “the best ammunition” to resume strikes on Iran if peace talks fail.

19:04 AUD/USD muted as hot US CPI reinforces Fed’s higher-for-longer stance
The AUD/USD pair steadies on Friday, posting a slight decline after a four-day strike of gains, trading with a cautious tone amid fresh data releases in the US and geopolitical risks.

US CPI confirms sticky inflation in March, driven by energy shock and the Iran war.Middle East uncertainty boosts Oil and supports the USD safe-haven demand.Risk-off sentiment and oil-driven volatility cap Aussie upside.The AUD/USD pair steadies on Friday, posting a slight decline after a four-day strike of gains, trading with a cautious tone amid fresh data releases in the US and geopolitical risks. At the time of writing, AUD/USD trades near 0.7076, down 0.10% in the day, but set to end the week with gains of over 2.50%.The United States (US) March Consumer Price Index (CPI) report came broadly in line with expectations but still showed firm inflation, largely driven by surging energy prices amid ongoing Middle East tensions. The CPI rose 0.9% in March, accelerating sharply from 0.3% in the previous month, while annual inflation increased to 3.3% YoY from 2.4% in February.However, inflation data failed to provide convincing support to the US Dollar (USD), which remains under pressure amid heightened tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East, as US and Iran officials are expected to begin peace talks in Pakistan this weekend.Short-term technical analysis:On the four-hour chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7078, holding a constructive bullish bias as it sits above both the 20-period and 100-period simple moving averages (SMAs) at 0.7044 and 0.6959, respectively. The cluster of nearby supports just under the market reinforces the positive tone, while the Relative Strength Index (14) around 66 suggests firm upside momentum without yet signaling extreme overbought conditions.On the topside, immediate resistance is located at 0.7093, where a horizontal level caps the advance and a break higher would open the way for further gains. On the downside, initial support is seen at 0.7072, followed by 0.7070 and 0.7054, with the 20-period SMA at 0.7044 providing an additional dynamic floor ahead of the deeper 100-period SMA support near 0.6959.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

18:59 Russia Consumer Price Index (MoM) above expectations (0.5%) in March: Actual (0.6%)
Russia Consumer Price Index (MoM) above expectations (0.5%) in March: Actual (0.6%)

18:13 Iran demands a ceasefire in Lebanon before talks
Iran's ‌parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said on Friday that two previously agreed measures, a ceasefire in Lebanon and the release of Iran's blocked assets, must be implemented before negotiations begin, according to Reuters.

18:01 Canada: Wage strength tempers BoC cut hopes – TD Securities
TD Securities strategists Robert Both and Emma Lawrence note that Canadian labour markets showed a modest rebound in March, with 14k jobs added and the unemployment rate steady at 6.7%.

TD Securities strategists Robert Both and Emma Lawrence note that Canadian labour markets showed a modest rebound in March, with 14k jobs added and the unemployment rate steady at 6.7%. Stronger wage growth for permanent workers and higher hours worked give the data a hawkish tilt, but softer core inflation and other wage indicators mean the report is unlikely to significantly alter Bank of Canada (BoC) policy expectations or front-end rate valuations.Labour rebound but BoC reaction muted"Stronger wage growth gave a hawkish tone to the report, but we do not expect it to weigh too heavily on the next BoC decision given the recent deceleration across core inflation measures and the softer performance across other wage indicators.""Softer core inflation momentum should also make it easier to look through the acceleration for LFS wage growth.""However, stronger wage growth will be more difficult to look through if higher energy prices start spilling over into broader inflation pressures.""Markets have remained highly focused on the geopolitical backdrop and energy prices as a driver for the near-term BoC path, so the reaction (or rather lack thereof) isn’t surprising despite Macklem's comment that the labour market remains soft."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

17:49 JPY: Neutral rate debate supports gradual gains – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur expects the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to deliver two further rate hikes in 2026, taking policy closer to a rising neutral rate and supporting a modest Japanese Yen appreciation versus Dollar (USD) and Euro (EUR) in the second half of the year.

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur expects the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to deliver two further rate hikes in 2026, taking policy closer to a rising neutral rate and supporting a modest Japanese Yen appreciation versus Dollar (USD) and Euro (EUR) in the second half of the year. He also projects USD/JPY and EUR/JPY to edge lower from current levels into late 2026 and 2027.BoJ tightening seen lifting Japanese Yen"The current policy rate of 0.75% is therefore still below even the lowest estimate of the neutral interest rate.""All in all, one can therefore say that financial conditions remain stimulative, which would support the assessment that the key interest rate has not yet reached a neutral level.""This supports our view that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates two more times this year.""The pricing out of these expectations in the US and Europe should therefore cause the Japanese yen to appreciate against the USD and the euro in the second half of the year."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

17:38 Oil: Fragile ceasefire keeps supply risks elevated – Wells Fargo
Wells Fargo’s international economics team notes that a fragile ceasefire in the Middle East leaves Oil market risks elevated and conviction on the outlook low.

Wells Fargo’s international economics team notes that a fragile ceasefire in the Middle East leaves Oil market risks elevated and conviction on the outlook low. They still assume active conflict ends by mid‑2026 and expect Oil to trend lower into H2 2026, but emphasize that large potential supply shut‑ins and slow normalization could keep prices and volatility higher than markets imply.Ceasefire fails to resolve Oil risks"The announced ceasefire looks fragile and keeps Middle East risk elevated.""We still assume active conflict ends by mid‑year and oil trends lower into H2 2026, but conviction on the outlook remains low amid persistent geopolitical stress.""This is a large and worsening supply shock.""The IEA estimates potential oil supply shut‑ins near 10 mbpd, roughly 10% of global supply, with conditions deteriorating further through April.""Ceasefire does not mean normalization. Shipping through Hormuz and energy production will recover slowly, if at all, without durable peace."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

17:35 US UoM Consumer Sentiment Index is seen at 47.6 in April
American consumer confidence deflated in early April, as households grew more pessimistic about current conditions and the broader economic outlook, according to preliminary data from the University of Michigan.

17:35 EUR/USD extends gains as ceasefire optimism weighs on USD despite firm CPI
The Euro (EUR) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, with EUR/USD extending gains for a fifth straight day, as improving risk sentiment following the US-Iran ceasefire announcement offsets the impact of firm US inflation data and keeps the Greenback under pressure.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD extends gains as ceasefire optimism keeps USD on the back foot despite firm CPI.US CPI rises in March, driven by higher Oil prices, but core inflation remains contained.Attention now shifts to the upcoming US-Iran negotiations in Pakistan this weekend.The Euro (EUR) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, with EUR/USD extending gains for a fifth straight day, as improving risk sentiment following the US-Iran ceasefire announcement offsets the impact of firm US inflation data and keeps the Greenback under pressure.At the time of writing, EUR/USD trades around 1.1736, its highest level since early March. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 98.55, heading for its biggest weekly decline since January.The latest US inflation data, the first to fully capture the impact of rising Oil prices since the onset of the US-Iran war, highlighted mounting price pressure. Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.9% MoM in March, accelerating sharply from 0.3% in the previous month. Annual inflation increased to 3.3% YoY from 2.4% in February, with both readings in line with market expectations.Additionally, the Consumer Price Index excluding Food and Energy rose 0.2% MoM in March, unchanged from the previous month and below expectations of 0.3%. On an annual basis, core CPI edged up to 2.6% YoY from 2.5%, also coming in slightly below the 2.7% forecast.From a monetary policy perspective, the mixed inflation picture reinforces expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will remain on hold in the near term. While the energy-driven surge in headline CPI highlights upside risks to inflation, the softer core readings suggest underlying price pressures remain contained. Fed policymakers have repeatedly flagged that progress on disinflation has slowed, while labor market conditions are showing signs of strain. In this context, markets are likely to expect a data-dependent approach, with the Fed needing clearer evidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward its 2% target before considering any rate cuts.On the geopolitical front, the two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran has eased fears of a major escalation, although the fragile nature of the agreement continues to keep markets cautious, with upcoming negotiations in Pakistan over the weekend in focus. Any meaningful breakthrough, particularly a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, could further weigh on the US Dollar and allow the Euro to extend its recovery. At the same time, a sustained decline in Oil prices would help ease inflation pressures and reduce the need for the Fed to keep interest rates higher for longer. Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.

17:26 Fed: Patience maintained with two cuts still projected – TD Securities
Oscar Munoz and the TD Securities US macro team judge that, although core CPI surprised on the soft side and tariff pass-through moderated, it is too early for markets to extrapolate a dovish signal.

Oscar Munoz and the TD Securities US macro team judge that, although core CPI surprised on the soft side and tariff pass-through moderated, it is too early for markets to extrapolate a dovish signal. They expect core inflation to firm again in April on airfares and shelter, and still project two 25 bps Federal Reserve cuts in the second half of 2026 as inflation normalizes.Soft core CPI but cuts still seen in 26H2"Tariff pass-through moderated today after firmer Jan and Feb data, with the CPI's supercore slowing to 0.18% m/m—a four-month low.""We expect this to translate into a softer core PCE at 0.23% m/m in March.""We think it is too early for the market to run with today's positive signal from the core CPI given the strong start to the year for consumer prices—along with the forming clouds that will surely rain on core inflation in coming months.""Strengthening airfares and the delayed payback from an unusually soft October shelter will lift the core CPI in April.""We still see room for two 25 bps rate cuts in 26H2 on inflation normalization."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

17:17 BoK: Data driven path to possible July hike – ING
ING’s Senior Economist Min Joo Kang notes that the Bank of Korea kept its policy rate at 2.5% and stressed a data-dependent stance as inflation pressures rise and GDP growth projections weaken.

ING’s Senior Economist Min Joo Kang notes that the Bank of Korea kept its policy rate at 2.5% and stressed a data-dependent stance as inflation pressures rise and GDP growth projections weaken. The report argues overall policy direction is still tilted hawkish, with supply shocks and weaker KRW raising inflation risks, and suggests the next move in rates should be a hike, potentially in July.BoK holds but leans toward future hikes"In its meeting statement, the Bank of Korea highlighted the challenge of balancing support for economic growth and curbing inflation. The BoK observed that price pressures have risen significantly since early March, with annual consumer price index growth likely to exceed February’s forecast of 2.2%. GDP growth, meanwhile, is now projected to fall below the earlier 2.0% forecast.""BoK Governor Rhee has consistently adhered to a principle: temporary external shocks do not warrant monetary policy responses. However, if such shocks start to raise inflation expectations and cause secondary effects, the BoK will adjust its policy accordingly.""The BoK now projects that both headline and core inflation will likely rise more than previously forecasted. The emphasis on high inflation sensitivity and upside risks to core inflation signals that the BoK is leaning towards a more hawkish policy stance, in our assessment.""If we’re right about supply constraints, which would have a larger impact on inflation than growth, the BoK is likely to respond with rate hikes. It could happen as early as July."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

17:08 US: Energy shock complicates Fed path – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Bernd Weidensteiner notes that U.S. inflation jumped to 3.3% in March, driven mainly by higher gasoline prices linked to the war in Iran, while core inflation remains moderate.

Commerzbank’s Bernd Weidensteiner notes that U.S. inflation jumped to 3.3% in March, driven mainly by higher gasoline prices linked to the war in Iran, while core inflation remains moderate. The bank expects headline inflation to approach 4% by May before easing in the second half of 2026, with the Federal Reserve likely keeping interest rates unchanged until late 2026.Energy shock lifts prices and risks"U.S. inflation jumped to 3.3% in March, up from 2.4% in February. The main reason is the rise in gasoline prices due to the war in Iran.""Excluding energy and food (the “core rate”), price pressure was actually slightly lower than expected at 0.2% month-on-month in March.""For other goods and services, the energy price shock will not become apparent until the coming months.""We expect the overall inflation rate to rise to nearly 4% by May.""Assuming that the situation in the Middle East then eases and the oil price falls back to $80, inflation should ease again in the second half of the year, but not fall below 3% until spring 2027."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

17:00 United States Michigan Consumer Expectations Index: 46.1 (April) vs previous 51.7
United States Michigan Consumer Expectations Index: 46.1 (April) vs previous 51.7

17:00 United States UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations: 4.8% (April) vs 3.8%
United States UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations: 4.8% (April) vs 3.8%

17:00 United States UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation increased to 3.4% in April from previous 3.2%
United States UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation increased to 3.4% in April from previous 3.2%

17:00 United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index registered at 47.6, below expectations (52) in April
United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index registered at 47.6, below expectations (52) in April

17:00 United States Factory Orders (MoM) came in at 0%, above expectations (-0.2%) in February
United States Factory Orders (MoM) came in at 0%, above expectations (-0.2%) in February

16:53 Oil: Motor fuel demand and behavior shifts – UBS
UBS economist Paul Donovan discusses how visible Oil prices at fuel stations interact with changing consumer behavior in major economies.

UBS economist Paul Donovan discusses how visible Oil prices at fuel stations interact with changing consumer behavior in major economies. He notes that US gasoline prices above USD 4 per gallon are framed as a crisis, yet demand trends in the United Kingdom (UK), United States (US), Germany and France show flat or lower motor fuel use versus 2015 and pre-pandemic levels. Donovan also highlights political choices around subsidizing fuel instead of using prices to encourage behavioral change.Motor fuel demand and policy choices"One of the most visible oil prices is that of motor fuels. In almost every country, the price is predominantly displayed by the side of the road. In the US, the rise above USD 4 per US gallon in the average price of gasoline is presented as a national crisis.""In the UK, demand for motor fuel is around the same level as in 2015—down 3.5% from its pre-pandemic level. Some of this is fuel efficiency and electric vehicles, but Britons are also driving about 0.8% less than in 2019.""In the US, motor fuel volumes are the equivalent of pre-pandemic levels and below those of 2015. It is a similar story in Germany and France.""Changing behavior means that consumers can cut back on motor fuel consumption. Pricing is one factor that can feed into that process.""The political desire to subsidize fuel, rather than allowing prices to push people to change their behavior (with governments offsetting hardship in other ways), needs to be considered in this context."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

16:46 WH Sr. Adviser Hassett: We expect a rapid reduction in energy prices once the Strait of Hormuz opens
Kevin Hassett, Director of the National Economic Council, told FOX Business on Friday that the Federal Reserve (Fed) outlook for having room to cut rates will be very solid. He also claimed the Hormuz Strait can be reopened within two months, saying they have backup plans to reopen it.

16:43 Canada: Labour outlook stabilizing with gradual improvement – RBC
Royal Bank of Canada’s (RBC) Nathan Janzen notes that Canadian labour market conditions steadied in March, with a modest employment gain and an unemployment rate holding at 6.7%.

Royal Bank of Canada’s (RBC) Nathan Janzen notes that Canadian labour market conditions steadied in March, with a modest employment gain and an unemployment rate holding at 6.7%. He highlights that softer labour force growth, driven by stalled population growth and aging demographics, is helping unemployment drift lower. RBC remains cautiously optimistic that per-person economic growth and labour conditions will gradually improve through 2026.Labour force dynamics support lower unemployment"The first increase in employment of the year in Canada in March (+14k) retraced little of the cumulative 109k drop over January and February.""But per-worker labour market conditions showed further signs of stabilization with the unemployment rate holding at 6.7% -- still above the 6.5% rate in January but below the 6.8% level in December and the recent peak 7.1% rate in September 2025.""The (gradual and choppy) drift lower in the unemployment rate since September has been, mechanically, tied as much to softer labour force growth as to stronger hiring -- Canada's labour force has declined by 39k workers over the last 6 months compared to an 42k increase in employment.""But that labour market decline has more to do with stalled population growth and an aging population rather than a 'distortion' like discouraged workers giving up their job searches.""Looking ahead, the economic growth backdrop still faces headwinds."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

16:34 EUR/USD: Upside risk within 1.1680–1.1780 band – Scotiabank
Scotiabank’s strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the Euro is extending consolidation around 1.17 after sentiment-driven gains linked to easing geopolitical concerns. They highlight constructive risk reversals, supportive yield spreads and reduced demand for downside protection.

Scotiabank’s strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the Euro is extending consolidation around 1.17 after sentiment-driven gains linked to easing geopolitical concerns. They highlight constructive risk reversals, supportive yield spreads and reduced demand for downside protection. Short-term technicals are bullish, with RSI firmly above 50, limited resistance ahead of 1.18, and an expected near-term range between 1.1680 and 1.1780.Euro holds gains as technicals turn bullish"The EUR is extending Thursday’s consolidation and entering Friday’s NA session with a fractional 0.1% gain vs. the USD. The latest congestion appears to be centered around 1.17, and follows a sentiment-driven recovery motivated by the tentative easing in geopolitical concerns.""The recovery in risk reversals is constructive and suggests a continued softening in demand for protection against EUR weakness, allowing for a return to fundamentals.""Yield spreads are supportive and offer near-term upside risk for the EUR.""Bullish – the RSI is firmly in bullish territory above 50, revealing an impressive recovery in momentum following a mid-March plunge to oversold levels nearing 20.""We see limited resistance ahead of 1.18, a level that offered considerable congestion through the latter half of February."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

16:28 USD/JPY: Rebound capped by 159.60 with downside risk to 157.50 – UOB
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) economists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann see USD/JPY edging higher in the near term after rebounding from oversold levels, but expects gains to be limited below 159.60.

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) economists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann see USD/JPY edging higher in the near term after rebounding from oversold levels, but expects gains to be limited below 159.60. On a 1–3 week horizon, they still look for another test of 157.50 as long as 159.60 holds as strong resistance. A break below 158.65 would signal renewed range trading.Limited upside as downside risk persists"Today, we expect USD to edge higher, but any advance is unlikely to threaten the strong resistance at 159.60 (there is another resistance level at 159.35).""Support is at 158.90; a breach of 158.65 would mean that USD has moved into a range-trading phase.""After USD dropped to 157.86 and then rebounded, we highlighted yesterday (09 Apr, spot at 158.60) that “oversold short-term conditions could lead to a couple of days of range-trading, but as long as 159.60 (‘strong resistance’ level) is not breached, there is a chance for USD to test 157.50.” There is no change in our view."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

16:16 Euro: Hungary vote seen modestly supportive – Rabobank
Rabobank's Head of Macro Strategy Elwin de Groot argues that Hungary’s parliamentary election could have supportive implications for the Euro if Viktor Orbán loses power.

Rabobank's Head of Macro Strategy Elwin de Groot argues that Hungary’s parliamentary election could have supportive implications for the Euro if Viktor Orbán loses power. He stresses that a Peter Magyar government might ease Hungary’s obstruction of EU decisions and Ukraine support, but warns that expectations for a dramatic policy shift may be too optimistic given his nationalist background.Hungary politics and Euro cohesion"Looking ahead to Sunday, Hungary’s parliamentary election may also attract significant attention, especially following several recent incidents and Vice President Vance’s explicit support for the incumbent.""Brussels is hopeful that a government led by Peter Magyar would alter Hungary’s course and reduce its obstruction of EU decision‑making.""Orbán is currently blocking a €90 billion loan package for Ukraine, reportedly linking it – likely for electoral reasons – to damage to the Druzhba pipeline that once carried Russian oil via Ukraine to Hungary and Europe.""An Orbán defeat is therefore widely seen as a positive development for European cohesion and strategic autonomy, with potential supportive implications for the euro.""That said, expectations may prove overly optimistic."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

16:05 NZD: Hawkish pricing seen as demanding – OCBC
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has rallied on hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) rhetoric and easing Oil risks, but warns markets may be overpricing tightening.

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has rallied on hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) rhetoric and easing Oil risks, but warns markets may be overpricing tightening. With a sizeable negative output gap and weak growth, NZD is expected to lag Australian Dollar (AUD). They project the RBNZ to start hiking only in 4Q26, with the policy rate at 2.75% by end-2026.RBNZ hikes seen delayed to 4Q26"The NZD firmed after hawkish comments from RBNZ Governor Breman, who warned the Bank would respond forcefully with rate hikes if core inflation accelerated.""While softer oil prices could allow the NZD to strengthen further against the USD, we still expect it to underperform the AUD.""Market pricing has shifted sharply hawkish, with nearly three rate hikes now priced by year-end.""This looks demanding given New Zealand’s sizeable negative output gap and sub-par growth over recent quarters, which raise the bar for aggressive tightening.""We expect the RBNZ hiking cycle to begin only in 4Q26, with a single 25bp hike lifting the policy rate to 2.75% by end-2026."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

15:55 Poland: Neutral NBP stance supports stable Zloty – ING
ING economists expect National Bank of Poland (NBP) rates to stay unchanged after April’s decision to hold the reference rate at 3.75%.

ING economists expect National Bank of Poland (NBP) rates to stay unchanged after April’s decision to hold the reference rate at 3.75%. They highlight a neutral Monetary Policy Council stance, with decisions driven by energy prices, geopolitics, fiscal policy and wage dynamics, and see rate hikes as unlikely under current conditions.NBP seen on prolonged policy hold"As expected, the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) left the National Bank of Poland's (NBP) interest rates unchanged, with the reference rate remaining at 3.75%. The press release following the April MPC meeting was very brief and neutral in its tone. It highlights that, as a result of supply constraints caused by the conflict in the Middle East, fuel prices have risen globally.""After the delivery of a 25bp NBP rate cut in March (and despite the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East), the MPC has adopted a more neutral stance and a wait-and-see approach in April. The Council's attention will now focus on incoming data and assessing the impact of the geopolitical and commodity situation on inflation prospects and economic activity. Rate hikes are off the agenda under the current circumstances.""According to the NBP governor, in the coming months, inflation will depend on prices of energy commodities (oil, natural gas) and domestic regulatory and tax decisions (excise duty and VAT on fuels), which are aimed at soothing the shock. The MPC will also focus on the pass-through of higher fuel prices into prices of other goods.""As for future decisions by the Council, these will depend on changes in commodity prices and the geopolitical situation, with fiscal policy and regulations concerning fuel prices, as well as changes in GDP and wage dynamics, posing risk factors.""Our baseline scenario assumes that the Lower Fuel Prices programme (CPN) will be maintained until the end of July this year, and average annual inflation will amount to 3.2%, compared to a roughly 2% estimate before the outbreak of war in the Persian Gulf and 2.3% in the NBP's March projection. This will allow the MPC to keep interest rates unchanged at least until the end of 2026, and we assess the probability of rate hikes as low."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

15:52 GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Bulls eye breakout above 214.00-215.00 resistance
GBP/JPY edges higher on Friday, extending gains for a fifth straight day as the Japanese Yen (JPY) remains on the defensive against most of the major peers. Elevated Oil prices continue to weigh on the Yen, given Japan’s status as a major net importer.

15:46 Hungary: Election seen pivotal for EU trajectory – Danske Bank
Danske Research Team underlines that Sunday’s Hungarian election could be crucial for European Union politics.

Danske Research Team underlines that Sunday’s Hungarian election could be crucial for European Union politics. Challenger Péter Magyar is polling ahead of Viktor Orbán and is campaigning on rebuilding EU and NATO ties and joining the euro area by 2030, though he shares several of Orbán’s core positions on Russia and Ukraine.Orbán challenge may reshape EU relations"On Sunday, the election in Hungary will be pivotal for political developments in the European Union in the coming years.""Prime Minister Viktor Orbán risks losing to Péter Magyar, whose Tisza party is polling at 48% compared with Orbán's Fidesz at 39%.""Over the years, Orbán has become a contentious figure in Brussels, criticised for weakening the rule of law at home and for impeding EU efforts to sanction Russia after its invasion of Ukraine.""He has also threatened to block the EU's next seven-year budget for 2028-2035, which affects the EU's funding outlook.""Péter Magyar, a former Orbán ally, is campaigning on rebuilding trust with the EU and NATO, restoring the rule of law and joining the euro area by 2030.""However, he does not signal a clear break from Orbán's approach, shares several core positions and is neither seeking an abrupt cut in ties with Russia nor advocating the provision of military aid to Ukraine."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

15:35 Canada: Unemployment Rate held steady at 6.7% in March
Statistics Canada reported on Friday that the Unemployment Rate helds steady at 6.7% in March, coming short of what markets were expecting.

15:35 MXN: Dovish Banxico and depreciation outlook – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister and Norman Liebke note that Mexico’s latest inflation data and Banxico minutes support a dovish stance.

Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister and Norman Liebke note that Mexico’s latest inflation data and Banxico minutes support a dovish stance. With only minimal forecast revisions and no immediate need to react to the Iran war shock, they expect further rate cuts if energy pressures stay contained and project that the Mexican Peso will weaken over coming months.Soft inflation response and weaker peso"Overall, the meeting minutes confirm Banxico’s recent, rather dovish decision to cut interest rates again. This has only reinforced our general assessment that Banxico is leaning toward a dovish stance and could deliver further rate cuts this year.""Accordingly, at least for now, there is no cause for panic for the Mexican central bank (Banxico), as was recently confirmed in its meeting minutes. Nor do central bankers see any reason to deviate from their current interest rate policy in the coming months due to the war in Iran.""Furthermore, they also confirmed that the fiscal measures implemented at the beginning of the year are unlikely to have any further second-round effects on inflation. Accordingly, inflation forecasts were revised upward only minimally.""Only if energy prices were to remain at current levels for an extended period and energy inflation were to seep into the components of core inflation would the Mexican central bank be justified in raising rates. However, we are currently still far from that scenario and do not anticipate it in our base case.""We therefore continue to expect the Mexican peso to depreciate over the coming months."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

15:31 United States Consumer Price Index Core s.a up to 334.165 in March from previous 333.51
United States Consumer Price Index Core s.a up to 334.165 in March from previous 333.51

15:30 Germany Current Account n.s.a. rose from previous €17.1B to €22B in February
Germany Current Account n.s.a. rose from previous €17.1B to €22B in February

15:30 United States Consumer Price Index (MoM) meets expectations (0.9%) in March
United States Consumer Price Index (MoM) meets expectations (0.9%) in March

15:30 United States Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) came in at 0.2%, below expectations (0.3%) in March
United States Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) came in at 0.2%, below expectations (0.3%) in March

15:30 United States Consumer Price Index (YoY) meets forecasts (3.3%) in March
United States Consumer Price Index (YoY) meets forecasts (3.3%) in March

15:30 United States Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) below forecasts (330.41) in March: Actual (330.21)
United States Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) below forecasts (330.41) in March: Actual (330.21)

15:30 United States Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) registered at 2.6%, below expectations (2.7%) in March
United States Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) registered at 2.6%, below expectations (2.7%) in March

15:30 Canada Unemployment Rate below forecasts (6.8%) in March: Actual (6.7%)
Canada Unemployment Rate below forecasts (6.8%) in March: Actual (6.7%)

15:30 Canada Net Change in Employment came in at 14.1K, below expectations (15K) in March
Canada Net Change in Employment came in at 14.1K, below expectations (15K) in March

15:30 Canada Participation Rate remains unchanged at 64.9% in March
Canada Participation Rate remains unchanged at 64.9% in March

15:26 India: Outlook stays subdued on external risks – Standard Chartered
Standard Chartered Bank economists Saurav Anand and Anubhuti Sahay highlight a sharp slowdown in India’s new investment announcements in March, heavily affected by the Middle East conflict and sector-specific issues in renewable electricity and chemicals.

Standard Chartered Bank economists Saurav Anand and Anubhuti Sahay highlight a sharp slowdown in India’s new investment announcements in March, heavily affected by the Middle East conflict and sector-specific issues in renewable electricity and chemicals. Projects under implementation (PUI) were distorted by technical reclassification, while project completions surged to their second-highest level ever. The overall investment outlook is seen as subdued given external sector uncertainty and demand risks.Middle East shock and sectoral softness"The Middle East conflict impacted new investment plans more than existing investment. The conflict soured sentiment, with new announcements plunging 90% y/y in March.""However, not all of the decline in new announcements was due to the Middle East war. While the decline in new announcements in March is understandable, it was significantly weak in February as well, primarily led by renewable electricity generation and the chemical sector.""Given that renewable electricity generation and the chemical sector are usually important contributors to new project announcements (40% of new announcements in the quarter of March 2025 came from these sectors), the softness in these sectors led to one of the weakest new announcements for the March quarter (contracted 57% y/y); this was the weakest March quarter for new announcements since 2021, when it was impacted by COVID.""Will slower new announcements impact future PUI? While such a possibility cannot be ruled out, the correlation between new announcements and implementation is not very strong, especially for the March quarter, as large announcements are typically made during investment summits.""Key positive during the quarter was a pick-up in the pace of project completions. Project completions in the March quarter were the second-highest quarterly total ever, surpassed only by the pre-election quarter of March 2024."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

15:19 EUR/JPY extends gains on Ukraine peace hopes, nears YTD highs at 186.88
The Euro (EUR) appreciates against its main peers on Friday, boosted by news reporting that Russia and Ukraine might be close to a peace deal. The EUR/JPY has extended its rally from mid-March lows at 182.00 to 186.50 so far, bringing the year-to-date high at 186.88 into focus.

15:05 DXY: Shipping risk, inflation path and Fed easing – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that global markets are cautious ahead of US-Iran ceasefire talks, with Brent, equities and bonds reacting while the Dollar stabilizes.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that global markets are cautious ahead of US-Iran ceasefire talks, with Brent, equities and bonds reacting while the Dollar stabilizes. He argues that if shipping security fears have peaked, risk appetite can improve and US Dollar Index (DXY) should trade in a 96.00–100.00 range, while maintaining a structurally bearish US Dollar (USD) view tied to US policy, fiscal and Fed politicization concerns.Risk, inflation and Fed easing outlook"Markets are trading on a cautious tone ahead of the US-Iran ceasefire talks planned this weekend in Islamabad. Brent crude oil prices are up 8% from Wednesday’s low, US stocks are churning, European stocks are up, global bond yields ticked higher but remain below their end-March highs, and the dollar’s decline stabilized.""For financial markets, the key issue is whether peak shipping security fear is now behind us. President Donald Trump’s openness to Iran’s 10-point proposal, including recognition of its sovereignty over the crucial Strait of Hormuz, as “a workable basis on which to negotiate” suggests the worst of the shipping risk panic may be in the rear-view mirror.""If so, risk appetite can improve further and anchor the DXY (USD index) within a 96.00-100.00 range. Structurally, we maintain our long-held bearish USD view because of fading confidence in US trade and security policy, worsening US fiscal credibility, and the ongoing politicization of the Fed.""As long as US underlying inflation and inflation expectations remain contained, the Fed will have room to resume easing to support the labor market and near stagnant consumer spending activity. Real personal spending growth undershot consensus at 0.1% m/m in February (consensus: +0.2%) vs. 0.0% in January (revised down from +0.1%)."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

15:05 Gold holds steady in a narrow range ahead of US CPI data
Gold (XAU/USD) oscillates within a narrow range on Friday as markets continue to monitor the evolving situation in the Middle East, while traders also stay on the sidelines ahead of US inflation data.

Gold trades within a narrow range ahead of US CPI data.Economists expect inflation to rise, reflecting the impact of higher Oil prices.Technically, XAU/USD consolidates within a rising channel below the 200-SMA on the 4-hour chart.Gold (XAU/USD) oscillates within a narrow range on Friday as markets continue to monitor the evolving situation in the Middle East, while traders also stay on the sidelines ahead of US inflation data. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $4,762 and is on track for a third straight weekly gain.Some improvement in risk sentiment has been seen after US President Donald Trump told NBC News on Thursday that he was “very optimistic” a peace deal with Iran was within reach following the two-week ceasefire agreement. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his country would begin direct talks with Lebanon “as soon as possible.”These developments have helped ease earlier concerns about the durability of the ceasefire. However, tensions remain elevated as Israeli strikes continue in Lebanon, keeping markets cautious ahead of upcoming US-Iran negotiations in Pakistan.Against this backdrop, Gold's price action remains driven by geopolitical headlines and shifting expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rates. Although Oil prices have eased since the ceasefire announcement, they remain well above pre-conflict levels as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains largely disrupted.This keeps inflation concerns alive, with the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data expected to reflect the impact of higher Oil prices. Economists forecast headline CPI to rise by 0.9% MoM in March, up from 0.3% the previous month, while annual inflation is seen accelerating to 3.3% from 2.4% in February.Fed policymakers have repeatedly highlighted that both sides of the dual mandate are at risk, with the disinflation process slowing while labor market conditions show signs of strain. In this context, Oil-driven inflation is likely to keep the Fed on hold in the coming months, unless a meaningful breakthrough in US-Iran talks leads to a sustained decline in Oil prices.Technical analysis: XAU/USD consolidates within a rising channelFrom a technical perspective, the 4-hour chart shows XAU/USD trading within an upward-sloping parallel channel, forming a series of higher highs and higher lows since bottoming near the $4,100 March swing low.However, price action reflects a neutral-to-capped near-term tone, as the pair trades below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,878 while holding above the 100-period SMA at $4,609.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 55 hints at mildly positive momentum, yet the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line remains below the signal line and above zero, with negative histogram bars holding, reinforcing a consolidative phase within the rising channel.On the topside, immediate resistance is defined first by the 200-period SMA at $4,878, with a break higher opening the way toward the channel’s upper boundary near $5,000 as the next significant supply zone.On the downside, initial demand emerges around the channel bottom at $4,700, which guards more substantive support at the 100-period SMA at $4,609. A sustained move below the latter would weaken the broader constructive channel narrative and expose deeper losses, while holding above these supports would keep the current consolidation phase intact inside the rising structure.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

15:00 Mexico Industrial Output (YoY) came in at -1.3%, below expectations (-0.7%) in February
Mexico Industrial Output (YoY) came in at -1.3%, below expectations (-0.7%) in February

15:00 Brazil IPCA Inflation registered at 0.88% above expectations (0.77%) in March
Brazil IPCA Inflation registered at 0.88% above expectations (0.77%) in March

14:50 CAD: Labour data expected to stay soft – TD Securities
TD Securities’ Global Strategy Team expects a muted rebound in Canadian labour markets, forecasting only 10k new jobs in March and an unemployment rate of 6.8%.

TD Securities’ Global Strategy Team expects a muted rebound in Canadian labour markets, forecasting only 10k new jobs in March and an unemployment rate of 6.8%. The bank notes elevated uncertainty and weak hiring intentions should limit the recovery after February’s large job losses, while wage growth for permanent workers is seen edging up to 4.3% y/y.Muted Canadian jobs rebound projected"We look for a muted rebound in CAD employment with just 10k jobs created in March as a larger increase for labour supply drives the unemployment rate 0.1pp higher to 6.8% (market: +15k, 6.8%, respectively).""Mean reversion would typically support a larger rebound from the 84k jobs lost in February but the combination of elevated uncertainty and muted hiring intentions should weigh on the recovery.""February's pullback was also broadly based, without any large one-off declines to unwind in March. We look for muted job creation across both goods and services, while wage growth for permanent workers should see a modest 0.1pp increase to 4.3% y/y."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

14:46 Oil: Physical tightness and supply shocks reshape pricing – BNY
BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage highlights extreme dislocation in Oil markets, with North Sea Forties Blend near $147/bbl and Dated Brent far above futures as Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz cuts flows to 8% of normal.

BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage highlights extreme dislocation in Oil markets, with North Sea Forties Blend near $147/bbl and Dated Brent far above futures as Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz cuts flows to 8% of normal. Additional supply losses from Saudi Arabia deepen fears of prolonged shortages, particularly in Asia, keeping Brent, WTI and Omani Crude supported.Physical stress drives Brent dislocation"Global oil markets saw acute physical tightness as North Sea Forties Blend surged to nearly $147/bbl, while Dated Brent rose 7% to $131.96, significantly above Brent futures at $97.20, reflecting severe dislocation between physical and paper markets. The disruption stems from Iran maintaining control over the Strait of Hormuz, where oil flows have dropped to just 8% of normal levels, constraining a route that typically handles 20% of global supply.""Two key hopes for this weekend’s talks in Pakistan revolve around shipping resolutions in the Strait of Hormuz and extending the ceasefire to the region. The “toll” collection plan that Iran floated will be a key point. Talk of a $1/bbl toll fee elicited a Trump warning overnight. The last 24 hours saw nine ships clear the Strait with traffic still restricted.""Market stress was further evident as Brent contracts for difference exceeded $30, breaching exchange limits and halting trading. Additional supply shocks emerged from Saudi Arabia, where output capacity fell by 600,000 b/d and pipeline disruptions cut a further 700,000 b/d, intensifying fears of sustained shortages, particularly across Asia.""Acute energy shortages are driving physical delivery shock pricing for Brent North Sea oil, even as WTI futures prices fall 10% on the week."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

14:38 Pound Sterling rises on Russia-Ukraine peace optimism, US-Iran talks awaited
The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades higher against its major currency peers, except other European currencies, edging up to near 1.3444 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Friday.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Pound Sterling moves higher against its major peers on hopes of a Russia-Ukraine peace.Kremlin said Russia wants peace, and not a ceasefire.Investors await US-Iran negotiations and the US CPI data for March.The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades higher against its major currency peers, except other European currencies, edging up to near 1.3444 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Friday. Pound Sterling Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.11% -0.04% 0.14% 0.15% 0.22% 0.29% -0.17% EUR 0.11% 0.07% 0.28% 0.26% 0.31% 0.42% -0.06% GBP 0.04% -0.07% 0.21% 0.19% 0.25% 0.33% -0.15% JPY -0.14% -0.28% -0.21% -0.01% 0.07% 0.10% -0.36% CAD -0.15% -0.26% -0.19% 0.01% 0.06% 0.14% -0.33% AUD -0.22% -0.31% -0.25% -0.07% -0.06% 0.08% -0.41% NZD -0.29% -0.42% -0.33% -0.10% -0.14% -0.08% -0.48% CHF 0.17% 0.06% 0.15% 0.36% 0.33% 0.41% 0.48% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote). The British currency gains on hopes that Russia and Ukraine could reach a peace deal after a four-year long bloodiest war. A Bloomberg report showed that a senior adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Ukraine is close to reaching a peace deal with Russia.Separately, the Kremlin said that there can be peace with Ukraine today if President Zelenskyy makes the decision. A top official from the Kremlin has also stated that Russia wants peace, not a ceasefire.Theoretically, signs of easing geopolitical tensions improve demand for riskier assets.Meanwhile, investors await scheduled talks between the United States (US) and Iran, which will be over the weekend in Pakistan. Both nations are expected to negotiate on terms in the 10-point peace plan proposed by Iran for a permanent ceasefire.On the macro front, investors await the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. Investors will closely track the inflation data as it will reflect the impact of elevated oil prices.The US CPI report is expected to show that the headline inflation accelerated to 3.3% Year-on-Year (YoY) from 2.4% in February. On a monthly basis, the headline inflation is expected to have grown at a faster pace of 0.9% against the previous reading of 0.3%. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

14:34 USD: Inflation focus into CPI release – TD Securities
TD Securities’ Global Strategy Team highlights that United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the key event, with core inflation expected to rise 0.27% m/m and headline CPI to jump 0.90% m/m as higher Oil prices feed through.

TD Securities’ Global Strategy Team highlights that United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the key event, with core inflation expected to rise 0.27% m/m and headline CPI to jump 0.90% m/m as higher Oil prices feed through. They note markets may look through any temporary weakness, while a stronger print could intensify inflation concerns and shape US Dollar (USD) expectations.US CPI and PCE shape Dollar outlook"On Friday, all focus continues to be on the Middle East, but CPI will also grab attention in the morning. We expect a core print of 0.27% m/m while headline is likely to see some of the oil pricing pass-through at a whopping 0.9% m/m. Markets are likely to look through any weakness, betting on higher inflation in April if the print comes in weaker, while a stronger print could exacerbate inflation concerns.""We look for core inflation to pick up to 0.27% m/m in March, largely owing to rising momentum in goods prices as tariff pass-through lingers. Services inflation likely remained steady vs February owing to a rebound in shelter prices. The focus will be on any evidence that the anticipated sharp rise in prices for the energy basket is filtering to the core segment in March.""We expect headline CPI jumped 0.90% m/m, with the energy component explaining most of the surge. Food inflation likely gave back momentum, cooling to 0.17% m/m. We see the risks to our forecasts skewed to the upside vs our below-consensus projection for core CPI inflation.""PCE prices came in line with market expectations with 0.37% m/m for the core and 0.38% for the headline. This February data is largely stale as it reflects pre-Iran inflation conditions. The strong number largely reflects continued tariff passthrough with a strong core goods number at 0.8% m/m."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

14:30 India FX Reserves, USD increased to $697.12B in March 30 from previous $688.06B
India FX Reserves, USD increased to $697.12B in March 30 from previous $688.06B

14:27 USD/JPY returns above 159.00 with Iran’s peace deal on tenterhooks
The US Dollar (USD) remains steady, relatively close to the key 160.00 level against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Friday, as the fragility of the ceasefire in Iran has prompted investors to cut down US dollar shorts.

14:22 EUR: Tightening expectations support Euro – ING
ING’s Francesco Pesole highlights that markets now price only 6bp for a European Central Bank (ECB) hike on 30 April, while around 55bp remains priced by year-end.

ING’s Francesco Pesole highlights that markets now price only 6bp for a European Central Bank (ECB) hike on 30 April, while around 55bp remains priced by year-end. He expects tightening expectations to stay above 50bp unless the ECB turns explicitly dovish, leaving the Euro relatively well positioned versus the Japanese Yen (JPY) and Swiss Franc (CHF), with EUR/USD seen stabilising around or slightly below 1.1700.ECB path underpins single currency"Pricing for a 30 April hike from the European Central Bank is now only 6bp. That mirrors not just the de-escalation (55bp remains priced in by year-end), but probably the view that the ECB won’t have enough evidence to act, and the energy price outlook may still be uncertain in three weeks’ time.""June and September look like the market’s preferred windows for rate hikes, although a follow‑up move in July after a June hike is around 50% priced.""What matters most at this stage is the stickiness of tightening expectations. As discussed on several occasions, we expect pricing to remain above 50bp unless the ECB delivers explicit dovish signals, even if oil prices ease somewhat further.""That backdrop leaves the euro well-placed, in our view, to outperform other low‑yielders such as the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc.""For EUR/USD, we look for some stabilisation around or slightly below 1.170 for now, with a good deal of positives already in the price."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

14:03 When is the Canadian employment data and how it could it affect USD/CAD?
The Canadian labor market data for March is scheduled to be published today at 12:30 GMT.

13:20 Ukraine nears peace deal with Russia – Bloomberg
According to a report from Bloomberg, a senior adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said during European trading hours on Friday that Kyiv is close to reaching a peace deal with Russia.

According to a report from Bloomberg, a senior adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said during European trading hours on Friday that Kyiv is close to reaching a peace deal with Russia.Separately, Russia has also stated that there can be peace with Kyiv today if Ukrainian President Zelenskyy makes the decision. A top official from the Kremlin has stated that Russia wants peace and not a ceasefire.Market reactionNo immediate reaction by major global assets after the news release.

12:56 India: Gradual energy pass-through keeps RBI patient – DBS
DBS Group Research projects India’s March Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation to edge up to 3.45% year-on-year from 3.2%, reflecting higher cooking gas, energy and input costs, while retail fuel and food stay benign. Precious metals’ correction tempers price pressures.

DBS Group Research projects India’s March Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation to edge up to 3.45% year-on-year from 3.2%, reflecting higher cooking gas, energy and input costs, while retail fuel and food stay benign. Precious metals’ correction tempers price pressures. The bank expects higher energy prices to filter through gradually, but sees core inflation remaining below 4%, supporting a continued neutral pause from RBI.Mild CPI uptick with core subdued"March inflation is expected to inch up to 3.45% yoy, from 3.2% month before, with the headline likely to partially reflect increase in cooking gas, energy index and ex-factory input costs, while retail fuel and food costs were benign.""Precious metals corrected in the month, which likely slowed the pace of rise in the sub-component.""We expect the impact of higher energy prices to gradually percolate in the coming months as replacement supplies arrive with a lag.""Core inflation, meanwhile, is likely to stay below 4%, reducing the need for the central bank to assume a hawkish stance in the near-term (RBI: Neutral pause)."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

12:49 Gold: Slight upside risk with fragile ceasefire – OCBC
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong report Gold has rebounded in choppy trade on a fragile US–Iran ceasefire and direct Israel–Lebanon talks. With US nominal and real yields falling and risk sentiment improving, the bank sees risks to Gold prices somewhat skewed to the upside.

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong report Gold has rebounded in choppy trade on a fragile US–Iran ceasefire and direct Israel–Lebanon talks. With US nominal and real yields falling and risk sentiment improving, the bank sees risks to Gold prices somewhat skewed to the upside. Key resistance is flagged around 4850, 4915 and 5023, with support at 4670 and 4250.Ceasefire and yields support upside bias"Gold rebounded in choppy trade, reflecting the fragile ceasefire deal between US and Iran as well as direct talks between Israel and Lebanon.""While geopolitical headlines can swing both ways, there is some bias towards an improved risk sentiment, with most asset classes including equities, high-beta FX and gold trading in synchronous fashion.""Overnight, both US nominal and real yields also fell and this can be supportive of gold prices.""The next leg for gold from here depends on whether the ceasefire holds and whether lower oil prices revives room for dovish Fed repricing.""Next resistance at 4850 levels (50% fibo retracement of 2026 high to low), 4915 (50 DMA) and 5023 levels"(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

12:40 Fed: Limited inflation shock, delayed cuts – Commerzbank
Commerzbank economist Bernd Weidensteiner notes that the Federal Reserve sees itself in a good position despite Iran‑related inflation risks, with officials expecting only a small core inflation impact.

Commerzbank economist Bernd Weidensteiner notes that the Federal Reserve sees itself in a good position despite Iran‑related inflation risks, with officials expecting only a small core inflation impact. However, sharply higher gasoline prices are pushing headline inflation up, and the Fed is wary of unanchored expectations, so Commerzbank does not expect rate cuts to resume until toward the end of 2026.Fed cautious on cuts after oil spike"Despite the potential impact of the war in Iran on inflation, the Fed considers itself to be in a “good position.” Several Fed members have pointed this out, including Philipp Jefferson (Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve Board) and John Williams (President of the New York Fed). Of course, uncertainty has risen, but Williams does not expect any major changes in underlying inflation.""In the short term, sharply rising energy prices—gasoline prices have risen by a third in the past month—are causing the inflation rate to spike.""From the Fed’s perspective, however, the seemingly endless succession of such one-off effects increases the risk that inflation expectations will break free from their likely already loosened anchors. The Fed will certainly want to prevent this.""Even with a sustained ceasefire in the Persian Gulf, a rapid resumption of interest rate cuts is therefore unlikely. We do not expect the next move until toward the end of the year."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

12:30 US: Energy shock set to lift headline CPI – Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank economists expect a sharp acceleration in US CPI for March as higher gasoline prices feed through. They project headline CPI at 0.95% month‑on‑month, the strongest since June 2022, lifting the annual rate back to 3.4%.

Deutsche Bank economists expect a sharp acceleration in US CPI for March as higher gasoline prices feed through. They project headline CPI at 0.95% month‑on‑month, the strongest since June 2022, lifting the annual rate back to 3.4%. Core CPI is seen rising more moderately, keeping underlying inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.Headline seen reaccelerating on gasoline surge"Although oil prices have come down since the ceasefire announcement, inflation concerns are still pretty high right now, meaning that all eyes will be on today’s US CPI print for March. That’s an important one, because it’s the first to cover the period since the Iran war began on February 28, and we know from the Euro Area flash CPI print that the energy price spike is now clearly visible in the data.""For today, our US economists are expecting a notable jump given the surge in gasoline prices, with monthly headline CPI rising to +0.95% in March.""If realised, that would be the highest monthly print since June 2022, and it would also push the year-on-year rate back up to 3.4%, which we haven’t seen since early 2024.""Then for core CPI, they expect a smaller uptick given it excludes energy and food prices, with the monthly core print up to +0.33%, and the year-on-year measure at +2.7%."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

12:30 Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Friday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $75.16 per troy ounce, down 0.23% from the $75.33 it cost on Thursday.

12:21 ECB: Four rate hikes still baseline despite ceasefire – Nordea
Nordea’s Jan von Gerich and Tuuli Koivu updated their ECB outlook before the ceasefire news and now expect four 25bp hikes starting in June.

Nordea’s Jan von Gerich and Tuuli Koivu updated their ECB outlook before the ceasefire news and now expect four 25bp hikes starting in June. They acknowledge downside risks to this baseline after the ceasefire, but stress that broader price pressures are emerging and that an end to the war would not automatically remove the need for ECB tightening.Four 25bp hikes from June"We updated our ECB forecast just ahead of the news of a ceasefire and now expect the ECB to hike rates four times by 25bp, starting in June.""While the ceasefire news immediately tilted the risks to our new ECB baseline to the downside, the outlook remains fraught with uncertainty, while signs of broader price pressures have already started to emerge.""It is thus not at all given that an end to the war would remove the need for the ECB to tighten policy altogether, even though the conflict in the Middle East has no doubt been the trigger for expectations of near-term ECB rate hikes.""In financial markets, expectations of a hike as early as at the April meeting have been severely dented, while a 25bp at the June meeting remains fully in prices."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

12:05 Gold: Constructive longer‑term outlook despite volatility – ING
ING strategists Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson highlight that Gold is edging higher and on track for a third consecutive weekly gain, supported by diplomatic optimism on Iran, central‑bank demand and rising inflation expectations.

ING strategists Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson highlight that Gold is edging higher and on track for a third consecutive weekly gain, supported by diplomatic optimism on Iran, central‑bank demand and rising inflation expectations. They stress that near‑term price action remains headline‑driven and volatile, but describe a constructive longer‑term outlook anchored in sustained official sector buying and expectations that real rates will eventually become less restrictive.Near‑term swings, longer‑term support intact"Gold has edged higher, on track for a third consecutive weekly gain and up nearly 2% at the time of writing. Prices were supported by diplomatic optimism around Iran, continued central-bank demand and rising inflation expectations, although price action remains highly headline‑driven.""Geopolitical risks are still unresolved, and the ceasefire appears fragile, keeping near‑term volatility elevated. Since the conflict began, gold has fallen around 10%, underscoring how macro headwinds, notably higher real yields and a firmer US dollar have outweighed safe‑haven demand.""Looking ahead, gold is likely to remain volatile in the near term, but the longer‑term outlook remains constructive, supported by sustained central bank buying, ongoing reserve diversification and the likelihood that real rates will not remain restrictive indefinitely."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

12:04 AUD/USD eases to 0.7060 as optimism about Iran’s truce ebbs
The Australian Dollar (AUD) trims gains on Friday as the US-Iran peace truce staggers. Cautious markets feature a mild return to the US Dollar’s (USD) safety following a risk-on week, and pulling the AUD/USD down from three-week highs near 0.7090 to session lows around 0.7060 so far.

11:56 Brent: Geopolitics keep risk premium elevated – Rabobank
Rabobank’s RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets team notes that Brent crude has firmed as markets weigh a fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran and severe disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.

Rabobank’s RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets team notes that Brent crude has firmed as markets weigh a fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran and severe disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. The bank highlights constrained shipping flows, lingering security concerns and Iran’s effective control over the waterway as factors preventing a quick normalisation in Oil markets.Hormuz disruption sustains Oil risk"Near‑dated Brent crude edged up by $2 to $97, equity markets posted modest declines in Europe, whilst US stocks rose.""Crucially, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted, with only a handful of Iran‑linked and/or Chinese vessels transiting the waterway.""Iran indicated that it would allow no more than 15 ships per day to pass under the ceasefire agreement – hardly meaningful given that an estimated 800-900 vessels are still waiting to exit the strait.""More fundamentally, the move underscores Iran’s effective control over the waterway, a message reinforced by the publication of “two safe shipping routes” by Iran’s Ports and Maritime Organization.""This raises the risk that even once ships can leave the strait to deliver cargoes to Asia and Europe, owners may remain reluctant to re‑enter the area to load new shipments."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

11:48 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD wobbles around $75 in countdown to US-Iran talks
Silver price (XAG/USD) trades in a tight range around $75.00 during the European trading session on Friday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Silver price consolidates around $75.00 as investors await the outcome of US-Iran talks.Investors also await the release of the US CPI data for March.Traders might raise dovish Fed bets if Iran agrees to permanent Hormuz reopening.Silver price (XAG/USD) trades in a tight range around $75.00 during the European trading session on Friday. The white metal consolidates as investors await the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March and the outcome of negotiations between the United States (US) and Iran on a permanent ceasefire in the Middle East, which are scheduled in Pakistan over the weekend.According to estimates, the US headline CPI grew strongly by 3.3% Year-on-Year (YoY) against the previous reading of 2.4%. The core CPI – which strips off volatile food and energy items – rose at a faster pace of 2.7% against 2.5% in February.There is no guarantee of the US inflation data influencing market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook, even as figures turn out to be stronger-than-projected, as the data would be counted a one-off, if Iran agrees to no interference on the Strait of Hormuz permanently after negotiations with Washington.However, the 10-point peace proposal delivered by Iran for a permanent ceasefire and the Hormuz reopening requires Tehran’s authorial recognition on the passage.Meanwhile, a negative outcome of US-Iran talks would prompt global inflation expectations further and force traders to raise hawkish Fed bets for upcoming policy meetings.Theoretically, hawkish Fed expectations bode poorly for non-yielding assets, such as Silver.Silver technical analysisXAG/USD trades flat around $75.00 at the press time, with a broadly neutral near-term bias, as the price is close to the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $75.06. The formation of a Symmetrical Triangle formation on a daily timeframe suggests consolidation rather than a clear directional push, while the Relative Strength Index (14) inside the 40.00-60.00 zone hints at balanced momentum after prior corrective pressure.On the topside, initial resistance is defined by the descending trend line near $77.00, and a daily close above this barrier would be needed to reopen room toward higher levels. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the rising border of the triangle pattern around $71.37; a break beneath that latter zone would weaken the broader constructive structure and expose deeper retracement towards $70.00, followed by the March 26 low of $66.71.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

11:47 US: War burden and spending power – UBS
UBS economist Paul Donovan discusses how US March consumer price inflation highlights US consumers’ war-related burden and affordability concerns.

UBS economist Paul Donovan discusses how US March consumer price inflation highlights US consumers’ war-related burden and affordability concerns. He notes that inflation perceptions are driven by frequent purchases like food and fuel, and that concentrated inflation in categories such as furniture may limit broader damage to spending power. Donovan also links affordability to political responses and consumer savings behavior.War burden, inflation and consumers"US March consumer price inflation gives insight into US consumers’ war burden (albeit with some data accuracy concerns). Affordability is one investor concern.""Affordability issues rely on inflation perception, driven by prices of high frequency purchases like food and fuel. Affordability is a political issue—the worse the crisis, the more likely the administration attempts policies to resolve, or distract.""Consumers’ ability to spend is also a concern. Hopefully, US consumers will continue to adjust savings to pay higher prices.""Yesterday’s February personal consumer expenditure deflator release showed inflation concentrated inflation pressures—which mitigates the broader damage to spending power. Furniture prices have risen sharply, for instance, but only matter to people refurnishing their houses right now."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

11:27 AUD/USD: Overdone rally still has room to test 0.7135 – UOB
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) economists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note AUD/USD broke above the prior range, reaching near 0.7100. Despite labeling the recent surge as overdone, they still see room for a push toward 0.7135, with 0.7000 now the key strong support.

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) economists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note AUD/USD broke above the prior range, reaching near 0.7100. Despite labeling the recent surge as overdone, they still see room for a push toward 0.7135, with 0.7000 now the key strong support. Near term, resistance is at 0.7100/0.7135, while 0.7060 and 0.7040 act as initial supports.Room for further gains despite stretched move"Following the strong surge in AUD two days ago, we highlighted yesterday (09 Apr, spot at 0.7030) that “the rapid advance appears overdone, but there is room for AUD to test 0.7135.”""We also highlighted the following: “To keep the momentum going, AUD must hold above 0.6970 (‘strong support’ level).""However, there is scope for AUD to test 0.7100.""The major resistance at 0.7135 is unlikely to come into view for now.""Near-term, 0.7000 is already a firm support.”"(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

11:20 BRL: Hawkish tilt and supported real – Commerzbank
Commerzbank analysts Michael Pfister and Norman Liebke highlight that Brazil’s inflation edged higher in February, and they expect today’s March data to show another fairly sharp rise in prices.

Commerzbank analysts Michael Pfister and Norman Liebke highlight that Brazil’s inflation edged higher in February, and they expect today’s March data to show another fairly sharp rise in prices. Despite being at the beginning of its easing cycle, the Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) is signaling a more restrictive stance as inflation expectations continue to rise. While the analysts still foresee several rate cuts in the coming months, they note that the original rate path could be delayed. Consequently, the Brazilian Real (BRL) has benefited from this hawkish tilt and is likely to hold near current levels until the BCB's next policy steps become clearer.BCB stance and real performance"Today’s March data is likely to show another fairly sharp rise in prices (driven in part by energy prices). However, this is not quite as decisive for the year-over-year rate in Brazil, as strong base effects are also coming into play.""Inflation rose from 3.8% to 4% in February, i.e. before the energy price shock, while core inflation increased slightly.""Unlike in Mexico, the Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) is at the beginning of a rate-cutting cycle. Nevertheless, the latest meeting minutes suggest that the BCB will adopt a more restrictive stance, at least for the time being, as inflation expectations continue to rise.""We still expect several rate cuts in the coming months, but given the rather hawkish minutes, the original rate path could shift slightly backward.""The Brazilian real has also benefited in recent weeks due to the BCB’s more restrictive stance. Until the BCB’s next steps become clearer, the real is therefore likely to remain at this level."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

11:16 WTI Crude Oil nears $93.00, with the Strait of Hormuz practically closed
Oil prices are ticking up for the second consecutive day on Friday. The US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil has returned to levels near $93.00 per barrel, as restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz keep a de facto blockade in place, adding strain to an already frail ceasefire deal in Iran.

11:02 USD: Inflation and peace risks shape Dollar – ING
ING’s Francesco Pesole notes that the US Dollar Index remains just below 99.0, with further downside seen if a permanent Middle East peace deal is agreed and Strait of Hormuz flows resume.

ING’s Francesco Pesole notes that the US Dollar Index remains just below 99.0, with further downside seen if a permanent Middle East peace deal is agreed and Strait of Hormuz flows resume. He argues today’s US CPI data are unlikely to change Federal Reserve pricing unless inflation surprises on the upside, and that higher inflation headlines raise the hurdle for additional bearish Dollar positioning.Dollar weighed by CPI and geopolitics"Today’s key area worth watching outside of Middle East headlines will be the US CPI report for March. We are aligned with consensus in expecting a 0.9ppt monthly jump in headline CPI to 3.4% year-on-year, while core CPI should accelerate only modestly from 0.2% to 0.3% month-on-month.""What matters for the Federal Reserve are second-round effects, visible – if anything – in core inflation after a few months from the initial energy shock. As such, today’s release should not be a game‑changer for Fed pricing unless inflation surprises meaningfully on the upside.""It is also worth watching the domestic political backlash from higher inflation. Some Republicans have voiced discontent over the war and rising gasoline prices, which could increase pressure on President Donald Trump to push for a peace deal.""Anyway, with hot inflation grabbing headlines, the bar for another dollar drop should be a bit higher today, even if Middle East developments remain the primary driver.""DXY keeps hovering just below 99.0. These levels clearly embed plenty of optimism, but another leg lower for USD is on the cards once, or if, a permanent peace deal is agreed and Strait of Hormuz flows resume."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

11:00 Italy Industrial Output s.a. (MoM) below forecasts (0.5%) in February: Actual (0.1%)
Italy Industrial Output s.a. (MoM) below forecasts (0.5%) in February: Actual (0.1%)

11:00 Italy Industrial Output w.d.a (YoY) in line with forecasts (0.5%) in February
Italy Industrial Output w.d.a (YoY) in line with forecasts (0.5%) in February

10:57 IDF remains in state of war with Lebanon
According to a report from the Guardian, Israel Defense Forces (IDF) chief of staff, Eyal Zamir, said that forces are continuing their combat operations in southern Lebanon and are “not in a ceasefire” with Hezbollah.

10:47 US equities: Outlook-driven earnings season – BNY
BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage argues that Q1 US equities will be driven more by forward guidance than reported earnings, with consensus S&P 500 earnings growth around 13% and wide dispersion in forecasts.

BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage argues that Q1 US equities will be driven more by forward guidance than reported earnings, with consensus S&P 500 earnings growth around 13% and wide dispersion in forecasts. AI monetization, margin expansion and tax relief are key supports, while Dollar strength, energy shocks and sector rotations are likely to shape investor reactions to EPS surprises.Guidance, AI and margins in focus"Q1 reporting will focus more on outlooks than results. The consensus earnings growth is 13%, but the forecast, varying from 9% to 19%, is wide. Early corporate guidance has also been notable, with 59 companies issuing positive guidance – the most since 2022.""The S&P 500’s 12m-forward P/E has dropped to 19.8 from 22 since January 1, a notable compression given the index is down just 0.6% on the year. The trailing 12m P/E of 26.2 may be the more instructive reference. Investors could rotate from value to growth, with beats rewarded more asymmetrically than misses in the weeks ahead.""Three notable divergent moves in holdings relative to earnings expectations will be key to how investors react to EPS beats. iFlow data show that Technology, Communications Services and Financials have all seen a significant shift down in holdings – a rotation that began before the Middle East conflict and was clearly part of the broader 2026 shift away from dominant growth themes.""Real Estate, Materials and Health Care look more dependent on underlying earnings.""The earnings season is likely to be defined less by reported results and more by forward guidance, particularly as macro uncertainty and sector rotations intensify. Equity markets appear increasingly sensitive to outlook revisions, with asymmetric reactions favoring companies that can demonstrate durable growth amid volatility. AI-driven efficiency gains and margin expansion remain key structural tailwinds, supporting an equity-biased stance, particularly in sectors with strong operating leverage."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

10:41 USD/CAD Price Forecast: Snaps four-day losing streak after attracting bids near 20-day EMA
The USD/CAD pair rebounds to near 1.3833 from the two-week low of 1.3805 on Friday after snapping a four-day losing streak.

10:41 AUD/JPY remains subdued near 112.50 due to risk-off mood
AUD/JPY edges lower after four days of losses, trading around 112.50 during the European hours on Friday. The currency cross remains subdued as the Australian Dollar (AUD) holds losses following the release of Chinese Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March.

10:36 GBP/JPY advances to fresh two-month high, eyes 214.00 as Middle East risks hit JPY
The GBP/JPY cross trades with a positive bias for the fifth consecutive day and hits a fresh one-month high, around the 133.85 area, during the early European session on Friday.

10:32 Brent: Supported near 96 as Hormuz traffic stalls – Danske Bank
Danske Research Team highlights that Brent crude is trading around USD 96 per barrel after sharp intraday swings tied to Middle East headlines.

Danske Research Team highlights that Brent crude is trading around USD 96 per barrel after sharp intraday swings tied to Middle East headlines. Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted despite a ceasefire, and talk of Iranian transit fees keeps geopolitical risk premia elevated in Oil markets.Hormuz disruption underpins Brent prices"The oil price (Brent) almost touched 100 USD/barrel yesterday before dropping sharply to below USD 95 on the Israel-Lebanon news. Subsequently, the price has however moved higher again to around 96-97 USD/barrel.""Brent crude futures are priced at USD 96/bbl at the time of writing.""In the Middle East, ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains paralysed at less than 10% of normal levels, despite a US-Iran ceasefire. Iran is directing vessels to transit near Larak Island, citing mine risks, and reports suggest it may impose cryptocurrency transit tolls, an idea strongly opposed by Western leaders and the International Maritime Organization.""Peace talks between the US and Iran, mediated by the Pakistani prime minister, are scheduled to begin on Saturday, but tensions remain high due to disagreements over the agenda. Iran insists on its ten-point plan, which White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt claims President Trump "literally threw in the garbage."""Further complicating the situation are disputes over whether the ceasefire terms should extend to Lebanon, after Israel's deadly attacks there on Wednesday."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

10:18 EUR/USD retreats to 1.1685 as doubts about Iran’s peace process grow
The (EUR) has snapped a four-day rally against the US Dollar on Friday. The pair pulled back from monthly highs at 1.1720 on Thursday to 1.1685 at the time of writing, as investors' confidence in a peace deal between the US and Iran shakes.

10:17 GBP/USD: Upside risk hinges on 1.3480 close – UOB
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) economists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann highlight a still-positive short-term outlook for GBP/USD after recent gains above 1.3450. They see scope for the Pound (GBP) to advance toward 1.3520, but stress that a daily close above 1.3480 is required.

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) economists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann highlight a still-positive short-term outlook for GBP/USD after recent gains above 1.3450. They see scope for the Pound (GBP) to advance toward 1.3520, but stress that a daily close above 1.3480 is required. Strong support has been raised to 1.3330, while intraday trade is expected within a 1.3390–1.3465 range.Pound needs confirmation above resistance"On Wednesday (08 Apr, spot at 1.3400), we indicated that “while the short-term rally appears overdone, there is scope for GBP to rise to 1.3480.”""After GBP soared to 1.3485 and then pulled back, we highlighted yesterday (09 Apr, spot at 1.3390) that “the upside risk remains intact, but GBP must close above 1.3480 before a move to 1.3520 can be expected.”""We added, “the likelihood of GBP closing above 1.3480 will remain intact as long as 1.3280 (‘strong support’ level) continues to hold.”""Our view remains unchanged, but we are revising the ‘strong support’ level to 1.3330 from 1.3280.""Today, GBP could edge higher, but any advance is likely part of a higher range of 1.3390/1.3465."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

10:06 CAD: Jobs data and BoC stance guide Loonie – ING
ING’s Francesco Pesole points to Canada’s March labour report as key for Bank of Canada (BoC) expectations, stressing that the unemployment rate matters more than volatile monthly payrolls.

ING’s Francesco Pesole points to Canada’s March labour report as key for Bank of Canada (BoC) expectations, stressing that the unemployment rate matters more than volatile monthly payrolls. With markets pricing about 40bp of tightening by December despite limited BoC appetite for hikes, he sees risks to Canadian Dollar (CAD) front-end rates as dovish and expects USD/CAD to drift toward 1.3700 on continued de‑escalation.Labour data and rates shape USD/CAD"Canada releases jobs data for March today. Consensus is for a +15k payroll change after the very soft -83k February print.""But the bigger signal for the Bank of Canada tends to come from the unemployment rate rather than the quite volatile monthly jobs swings.""In our view, risks for CAD front-end rates are skewed to the dovish side in the coming weeks.""Markets are pricing around 40bp of tightening by December, which looks too aggressive considering the BoC has not signalled much appetite for hikes, and attention may soon shift to USMCA renegotiations – a major downside risk for Canada’s activity and jobs.""USD/CAD remains dominated by war headlines for now, and continued de‑escalation should allow a move to 1.3700."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

10:04 Asian stocks rise as US-Iran ceasefire eases central banks’ rate hike odds
Asian equities rise following a rally on Wall Street overnight as the United States (US)–Iran ceasefire triggered a sharp drop in oil prices, easing concerns over renewed inflation and further rate hikes by the central banks.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Asian stocks advance as the rate hike concerns ease after the US–Iran ceasefire.Asian markets may struggle as risk aversion rises amid persistent uncertainty over the fragile US–Iran ceasefire.President Trump said US forces will remain deployed around Iran until full compliance with the agreement.Asian equities rise following a rally on Wall Street overnight as the United States (US)–Iran ceasefire triggered a sharp drop in oil prices, easing concerns over renewed inflation and further rate hikes by the central banks.At the time of writing, Japan’s Nikkei 225 is trading 1.85% higher near 56,900, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index is up over 0.64% to near 25,900, China’s SSE Composite Index gains 0.77% to near 4,000, and South Korea’s Kospi gains 1.55% to near 5,870.However, the Asian stocks may struggle as traders remain cautious amid renewed risk aversion driven by ongoing uncertainty surrounding the US–Iran ceasefire longevity. Expected diplomatic talks between the US and Iran in Islamabad this weekend remain uncertain, with no official confirmation of delegates’ arrival on Friday.Israel continues strikes on Hezbollah, despite Benjamin Netanyahu stating that Israel will soon begin direct negotiations with Lebanon. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said US forces will remain deployed around Iran until full compliance with the agreement is achieved.Japanese stocks may face challenges amid rising expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could raise interest rates in April to stay ahead of inflation. Japan’s 10-year government bond yield climbed near 2.4% on Friday, close to its highest level since 1998. Yields have surged since the Middle East conflict began, as higher energy prices fueled inflation concerns and strengthened bets on tighter BoJ policy.China’s Consumer Price Index rose 0.9% YoY in March, down from 1.3% in February and below the 1.2% consensus. On a monthly basis, CPI fell 0.7% after a 1.0% increase previously. Meanwhile, Producer Price Index rose 0.5% YoY, rebounding from a 0.9% decline and marking its first increase since September 2022, supported partly by higher energy costs amid disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Asian stocks FAQs Which are the main stock market indices in Asia? Asia contributes around 70% of global economic growth and hosts several key stock market indices. Among the region’s developed economies, the Japanese Nikkei – which represents 225 companies on the Tokyo stock exchange – and the South Korean Kospi stand out. China has three important indices: the Hong Kong Hang Seng, the Shanghai Composite and the Shenzhen Composite. As a big emerging economy, Indian equities are also catching the attention of investors, who increasingly invest in companies in the Sensex and Nifty indices. What are the main sectors represented in Asian stock markets? Asia’s main economies are different, and each has specific sectors to pay attention to. Technology companies dominate in indices in Japan, South Korea, and increasingly, China. Financial services are leading stock markets such as Hong Kong or Singapore, considered key hubs for the sector. Manufacturing is also big in China and Japan, with a strong focus on automobile production or electronics. The growing middle class in countries like China and India is also giving more and more prominence to companies focused on retail and e-commerce. What factors drive Asian stock markets? Many different factors drive Asian stock market indices, but the main factor behind their performance is the aggregate results of the component companies revealed in their quarterly and annual earnings reports. The economic fundamentals of each country, as well as their central bank decisions or their government’s fiscal policies, are also important factors. More broadly, political stability, technological progress or the rule of law can also impact equity markets. The performance of US equity indices is also a factor as, more often than not, Asian markets take the lead from Wall Street stocks overnight. Finally, the broader risk sentiment in markets also plays a role as equities are considered a risky investment compared to other investment options such as fixed-income securities. What are the risks of investing in Asia stock markets? Investing in equities is risky by itself, but investing in Asian stocks comes along with region-specific risks to be taken into account. Asian countries have a wide range of political systems, from full democracies to dictatorships, so their political stability, transparency, rule of law or corporate governance requirements may diverge considerably. Geopolitical events such as trade disputes or territorial conflicts can lead to volatility in stock markets, as can natural disasters. Moreover, currency fluctuations can also have an impact on the valuation of Asian stock markets. This is particularly true in export-oriented economies, which tend to suffer from a stronger currency and benefit from a weaker one as their products become cheaper abroad.

10:00 Austria Industrial Production (YoY) increased to 1.1% in February from previous 0.3%
Austria Industrial Production (YoY) increased to 1.1% in February from previous 0.3%

09:56 DXY: Limited haven response to Oil shock – DBS
Philip Wee at DBS Group Research highlights that despite Brent crude trading in a USD 100–120 range in Q1 2026, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has stayed within its established 96–101 band.

Philip Wee at DBS Group Research highlights that despite Brent crude trading in a USD 100–120 range in Q1 2026, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has stayed within its established 96–101 band. He attributes the US Dollar's (USD) muted haven response to a less urgent Federal Reserve (Fed), tighter policy relative to inflation, and fading enthusiasm for the so‑called Trump Trade.Dollar rangebound despite Oil spike"Stepping back to look at the broader trend since early 2026, the DXY Index was surprisingly muted compared to previous energy shocks.""Despite Brent crude’s spike into a $100-120 range in Q1, the DXY held the 96-101 range set since mid-2025.""We noted that the USD’s haven status during this oil shock was significantly lower than in 2022.""Unlike in 2022, the Fed has no urgency to catch up with rising inflation driven by demand.""Hence, the DXY is not rushing to extend its rise above 100 today, held back by a Fed with a wait-and-see stance on interest rates."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

09:49 Japanese Yen drifts lower ahead of US CPI inflation data, US-Iran talks
The USD/JPY pair attracts some buyers to near 159.30 during the early European trading hours on Friday. A fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran provides some support to the US Dollar (USD) against the Japanese Yen (JPY).

09:48 Forex Today: Market volatility eases as focus shifts to US inflation data
Here is what you need to know on Friday, April 10:

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The economic calendar will also feature Canada employment data for March and the University of Michigan (UoM) will publish the preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index data for April. US Dollar Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -1.40% -1.70% -0.24% -0.79% -2.50% -2.57% -1.27% EUR 1.40% -0.30% 1.17% 0.64% -1.11% -1.21% 0.12% GBP 1.70% 0.30% 1.41% 0.92% -0.81% -0.91% 0.44% JPY 0.24% -1.17% -1.41% -0.54% -2.25% -2.30% -1.05% CAD 0.79% -0.64% -0.92% 0.54% -1.72% -1.77% -0.48% AUD 2.50% 1.11% 0.81% 2.25% 1.72% -0.07% 1.26% NZD 2.57% 1.21% 0.91% 2.30% 1.77% 0.07% 1.34% CHF 1.27% -0.12% -0.44% 1.05% 0.48% -1.26% -1.34% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). Following Wednesday's risk rally, markets adopted a cautious tone on Thursday with investors doubting the sustainability of the ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran. Nonetheless, the US Dollar (USD) Index registered small daily losses and Wall Street's main indexes gained between 0.5% and 0.7%. After suffering heavy losses midweek, crude Oil prices edged higher and the barrel of West Texas Intermediate rose about 1% on the day before stabilizing near $92.00. Related news US CPI inflation set to jump in March, putting an end to gradual two-year decline USD: Oil shock, inflation risks and Fed path – Commerzbank Could US CPI be a game-changer for the Fed? Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced Thursday that he has ordered the start of direct negotiations with Lebanon "as soon as possible," with talks expected to center on disarming Hezbollah and establishing a formal peace between the two nations. However, Netanyahu later clarified that there is "no ceasefire in Lebanon" and that they will continue to strike Hezbollah with full force. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said that Iran was doing a "very poor job" of allowing Oil to go through the Strait of Hormuz. Early Friday, US Stock index futures trade marginally lower and USD Index clings to gains near 99.00. In the US, the CPI is forecast to rise 3.3% on a yearly basis in March, up sharply from 2.4% in February.Gold (XAU/USD) rose about 1% on Thursday but lost its recovery momentum early Friday. At the time of press, XAU/USD was trading in a tight channel at around $4,750.EUR/USD posted gains for the fourth consecutive day on Thursday before entering a consolidation phase at around 1.1700 on Friday.USD/CAD recovers slightly and trades at around 1.3830 after touching its weakest level in two weeks near near 1.3800 on Thursday. In Canada, the Unemployment Rate is forecast to edge higher to 6.8% from 6.7% in February.GBP/USD retreats in the European morning on Friday but holds above 1.3400 following a four-day climb.USD/JPY closed in positive territory on Thursday and continued to edge higher in the Asian session on Friday. As of writing, the pair was up 0.2% on the day near 159.30. Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino said that the Japanese economy is not in stagflation and explained that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East could push down growth and accelerate inflation. Inflation FAQs What is inflation? Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%. What is the Consumer Price Index (CPI)? The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls. What is the impact of inflation on foreign exchange? Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money. How does inflation influence the price of Gold? Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.

09:47 Gold: Rangebound trade before US CPI – DBS
DBS Group Research economist Eugene Leow notes that Gold has been consolidating in a tight range despite sharp moves in energy markets, as traders await key US CPI data. The report highlights stronger institutional demand, with rising ETF holdings after late-March weakness.

DBS Group Research economist Eugene Leow notes that Gold has been consolidating in a tight range despite sharp moves in energy markets, as traders await key US CPI data. The report highlights stronger institutional demand, with rising ETF holdings after late-March weakness. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East and upcoming US data remain key drivers for Gold.Institutional demand and geopolitical risk"Gold prices consolidated in a narrow range overnight, exhibiting muted price action despite heightened volatility in energy markets.""Doubts over the durability of the Middle East ceasefire, underscored by the continued blockage of commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, pushed oil prices toward the $100 threshold.""Yet, real yields remained largely unchanged, decoupling from energy market turbulence as investors retreated to the sidelines ahead of today’s pivotal US CPI release.""Institutional appetite for gold has strengthened noticeably over the past week.""ETF holdings have been rising steadily as institutional investors systematically scale into positions, capitalising on late-March price weakness to establish strategic exposure. In the near term, attention will remain focused on the outcomes of upcoming discussions between the US and Iran and whether transit activity normalises in the coming days."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

09:35 Asia FX: Ceasefire bounce faces oil and Fed headwinds – MUFG
MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Lloyd Chan argues that Asia FX gains on ceasefire hopes are running ahead of fundamentals, as Oil retains a structural floor and US yields stay elevated.

MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Lloyd Chan argues that Asia FX gains on ceasefire hopes are running ahead of fundamentals, as Oil retains a structural floor and US yields stay elevated. He highlights that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains subdued and war-risk premia high, reinforcing US Dollar strength and suggesting Asia FX relief rallies are vulnerable to reversal.Relief rally seen as fragile and temporary"While the announcement of a two-week US–Iran ceasefire has provided short-term relief to Asia FX, the reprieve looks fragile. The ceasefire does not appear to cover Lebanon, and Israel’s subsequent strike on Lebanon has raised concerns about the durability of the ceasefire agreement. More tellingly, tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains subdued, and war-risk insurance premia are likely to stay elevated, even under a ceasefire.""For Asia FX to move from a relief-driven bounce to more sustained recovery, several conditions would likely need to be met. First, there must be a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with tanker volumes normalizing. Second, oil prices would need to decline sustainably, reducing the inflation effect that is currently feeding into higher US yields and underpinning the US dollar.""Third, the Fed would need to re-anchor toward policy easing. At this stage, none of these conditions have been sufficiently fulfilled. This argues for fading ceasefire-driven strength in Asia FX, particularly in oil-sensitive currencies such as INR, PHP, and THB.""However, CNY strength continues to provide a stabilizing anchor for the region, underpinned by China’s sizeable strategic reserves, while Singapore’s deep energy infrastructure, diversified energy sourcing, and ample fiscal buffers could keep SGD relatively resilient below the 1.3100 level against USD."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

09:30 NZD/USD Price Forecast: Recovery hits pause around 0.5870 ahead of US-Iran talks
The NZD/USD pair corrects after a four-day winning streak, trading 0.25% lower to near 0.5845 during the early European trading session on Friday.

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p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}NZD/USD retraces to near 0.5845 as antipodeans face pressure ahead of US-Iran negotiations.Military attacks in Lebanon have raised concerns over the hopes of a US-Iran permanent ceasefire.This week, the RBNZ left its OCR unchanged at 2.25%.The NZD/USD pair corrects after a four-day winning streak, trading 0.25% lower to near 0.5845 during the early European trading session on Friday. The Kiwi pair faces slight selling pressure as investors turn cautious ahead of negotiations between the United States (US) and Iran regarding the 10-point peace proposal, proposed by Tehran in consideration of a permanent ceasefire. New Zealand Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the weakest against the Swiss Franc. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.12% 0.15% 0.21% 0.10% 0.27% 0.26% 0.00% EUR -0.12% 0.03% 0.09% -0.04% 0.14% 0.14% -0.12% GBP -0.15% -0.03% 0.09% -0.05% 0.12% 0.11% -0.16% JPY -0.21% -0.09% -0.09% -0.13% 0.06% 0.00% -0.25% CAD -0.10% 0.04% 0.05% 0.13% 0.16% 0.16% -0.11% AUD -0.27% -0.14% -0.12% -0.06% -0.16% -0.01% -0.28% NZD -0.26% -0.14% -0.11% -0.00% -0.16% 0.01% -0.27% CHF -0.01% 0.12% 0.16% 0.25% 0.11% 0.28% 0.27% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote). As of writing, S&P 500 futures trade subduedly around 6,825, after a two-day rally, reflecting a calm market mood. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% higher to near 98.90.Meanwhile, continued military attacks between Israel and Iran-backed Houthis in Lebanon have raised concerns over hopes of a positive outcome from US-Iran talks in Pakistan over the weekend.On the domestic front, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) held its Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 2.25% on Wednesday, as expected, and guided that the monetary policy path would remain on the upside. RBNZ Governor Anna Breman said, “Tightening could be at every meeting or every other meeting, it depends,” and added, “Neutral rate is a range with a midpoint at 3.0%.”In the US, investors await the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.NZD/USD technical analysisAt press time, NZD/USD trades lower at around 0.5845. The daily chart shows a mildly bullish near-term bias, as spot trades above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.5803, suggesting that recent dips would be supported rather than extended.A quick shift by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) into the 40.00-60.00 zone from the area below 40.00, indicates the onset of a bullish reversal rather than just a pullback move.On the downside, initial support is aligned with the 20-day EMA at 0.5803, where a daily close below would weaken the constructive tone and open the door to a deeper retracement toward the April 3 high of 0.5754. As long as buyers defend this moving average on pullbacks, the path of least resistance favors further recovery attempts toward the March 19 high at 0.5893. A decisive break above 0.5893 would open the door for further advancement towards the March 10 high of 0.5965.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Economic Indicator RBNZ Interest Rate Decision The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announces its interest rate decision after each of its seven scheduled annual policy meetings. If the RBNZ is hawkish and sees inflationary pressures rising, it raises the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to bring inflation down. This is positive for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) since higher interest rates attract more capital inflows. Likewise, if it reaches the view that inflation is too low it lowers the OCR, which tends to weaken NZD. Read more. Last release: Wed Apr 08, 2026 02:00 Frequency: Irregular Actual: 2.25% Consensus: 2.25% Previous: 2.25% Source: Reserve Bank of New Zealand Why it matters to traders? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) holds monetary policy meetings seven times a year, announcing their decision on interest rates and the economic assessments that influenced their decision. The central bank offers clues on the economic outlook and future policy path, which are of high relevance for the NZD valuation. Positive economic developments and upbeat outlook could lead the RBNZ to tighten the policy by hiking interest rates, which tends to be NZD bullish. The policy announcements are usually followed by interim Governor Christian Hawkesby's press conference.

09:27 EUR/GBP edges up above 0.8700 on shaky markets
The Euro (EUR) holds moderate gains against the British Pound (GBP) on Friday.

09:27 Equities: Cyclical rally extends as volatility eases – Danske Bank
Danske Research Team reports that global equities extended gains, led by US markets, with cyclical sectors outperforming while defensive and low-volatility names lag.

Danske Research Team reports that global equities extended gains, led by US markets, with cyclical sectors outperforming while defensive and low-volatility names lag. The VIX has fallen back below 20, and Asian equities and European futures are trading higher, suggesting risk appetite remains resilient despite ongoing geopolitical tensions.Cyclicals lead while defensives unwind"Equities continued higher yesterday, led by the US, and the week is increasingly shaping up as a full reversal on the equity side. We have seen pronounced cyclical outperformance, while low-vol/defensive equities have been aggressively unwound.""With VIX now back below 20, this should serve as a yet another reminder of how markets behave in periods characterised by elevated geopolitical noise, a still-solid macro backdrop, and late-cycle exuberance. In such environments, the behavioural component becomes critical highlighting the risk of 'running after the market' when breaking news hits the screen continuously.""Despite the strong focus on Iran, an equally important theme is unfolding beneath the surface, both for equities and for broader asset allocation, including private equity and private credit. Namely, that 'tech is no longer just tech'. Software continues to lag meaningfully and yesterday was another clear example: software was the worst-performing segment, while semiconductors outperformed sharply, by ~4pp in the US and ~7pp in Europe on the day alone.""Zooming out, this is a continuation of a trend we highlighted months ago in our "When tech disrupts tech" editorial. Over the past nine months, hardware has been the best-performing industry in the US, while software has been the worst, leaving hardware outperforming software by ~125 percentage point (!) over the period.""This morning, Asian equities are trading higher, European futures are pointing up, while US futures are broadly flat."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

09:14 USD: Oil shock, inflation risks and Fed path – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur argues that FX markets will increasingly shift focus from Gulf tensions to the impact of higher Oil prices on United States (US) inflation and the US Dollar (USD).

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur argues that FX markets will increasingly shift focus from Gulf tensions to the impact of higher Oil prices on United States (US) inflation and the US Dollar (USD). He highlights a sharp March Consumer Price Index (CPI) boost from gasoline and warns that second‑round effects via trucking costs could lift consumer prices and shape Federal Reserve (Fed) policy under Kevin Warsh.Oil-driven inflation and Dollar outlook"Looking ahead, the fx markets will likely increasingly focus on the effects of the oil price shocks. And fittingly, important data is coming out today that could provide a first small glimpse: the US inflation figures for March.""According to Bloomberg, the consensus expects a significant rise in the monthly rate to 0.9%, which would push the annual rate to 3.4% - its highest level in two years. The impact on the core rate, however, is understandably estimated to be significantly smaller. The consensus expects an increase of 0.3% here compared to the previous month.""In the coming months, however, it will likely be more interesting to see how second-round effects play out. For even though there are hardly any diesel-powered cars in the US and the price of diesel is therefore irrelevant to consumer prices, trucks, on the other hand, run on diesel. And here, prices in the US actually rose by 32% last month.""Most logistics companies have therefore already reacted and significantly raised their trucking rates. By the end of March, these rates were already more than 10% higher than at the end of February. And since all goods must eventually be transported from A to B, transportation costs will ultimately find their way into consumer prices as well.""For the US Federal Reserve, however, this is likely to be a decisive factor in the coming months. And how its newly appointed chairman, Kevin Warsh, will handle this - despite his desire to lower interest rates - will then be decisive for the USD."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

09:04 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rises to near $76.00 on easing rate hike bets
Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its winning streak, trading around $76.00 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Friday.

09:00 Sweden Industrial Production Value (YoY) increased to 7% in February from previous 1.9%
Sweden Industrial Production Value (YoY) increased to 7% in February from previous 1.9%

09:00 Sweden Industrial Production Value (MoM) rose from previous -5.7% to 5.1% in February
Sweden Industrial Production Value (MoM) rose from previous -5.7% to 5.1% in February

09:00 Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) in line with expectations (2.8%) in March
Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) in line with expectations (2.8%) in March

09:00 Germany Consumer Price Index (MoM) in line with forecasts (1.1%) in March
Germany Consumer Price Index (MoM) in line with forecasts (1.1%) in March

09:00 Germany Consumer Price Index (YoY) in line with expectations (2.7%) in March
Germany Consumer Price Index (YoY) in line with expectations (2.7%) in March

09:00 Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) meets expectations (1.2%) in March
Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) meets expectations (1.2%) in March

09:00 Sweden New Orders Manufacturing (YoY) climbed from previous -3.9% to 1% in February
Sweden New Orders Manufacturing (YoY) climbed from previous -3.9% to 1% in February

08:40 WTI Price Forecast: Declines below $92.00 but holds bullish bias ahead of US–Iran talks
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $91.75 during the early European trading hours on Friday. The WTI price declines as traders brace for the outcome of make-or-break talks between the US and Iran on Saturday in Pakistan.

08:38 USD/INR trades subduedly ahead of US-Iran talks in Pakistan
The Indian Rupee (INR) ticks up against the US Dollar (USD) at around 92.45 on Friday.

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The USD/INR pair is expected to remain on the sidelines as investors await the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March at 06:00 pm IST (12:30 GMT) and the outcome of negotiations between the United States (US) and Iran on the 10-point peace proposal in Pakistan over the weekend.During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades almost flat around 98.85.US CPI data awaitedInvestors will pay close attention to the US inflation data for March, as it will reflect the impact of elevated energy prices, which are driven by the war in the Middle East. The US CPI report is expected to show that the headline inflation accelerated to 3.3% Year-on-Year (YoY) from 2.4% in February. On a monthly basis, the headline inflation is expected to have grown at a faster pace of 0.9% against the previous reading of 0.3%.The US core CPI – which excludes volatile food and energy items – is estimated to have risen 2.7% YoY, faster than the prior release of 2.5%. Month-on-Month (MoM) core CPI is expected to arrive higher at 0.3% from 0.2% in February.However, the influence on market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook is expected to come more from the outcome of US-Iran permanent ceasefire talks in Pakistan than from the inflation data.The impact of higher oil prices on US inflation would be counted as a one-time event if Iran agrees to let things return to normal near the Strait of Hormuz, whose closure led to an energy supply crisis and prompted inflation expectations globally. Fed members are unlikely to be encouraged to deliver hawkish remarks on the US interest rate outlook due to a one-off increase in inflation.Iran seized control of the Strait of Hormuz as part of retaliation against the killing of its major leaders by combined military attacks from Israel and the US.Meanwhile, Iran has demanded recognition of its authority over the Strait of Hormuz, as one of its requirements, for a permanent ceasefire.The selling pressure by FIIs slows downDespite the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, overseas investors continue to dump their stake in the Indian stock market. However, recent data shows that the selling pressure has cooled down significantly.Since the announcement of the US-Iran temporary truce on early Wednesday, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have offloaded their stake at an average of Rs. 2,261.58 crore on Wednesday and Thursday, a little over one-fourth of the average selling of Rs. 8,780.39 crore recorded in trading days gone by.Technical Analysis: Pullbacks in USD/INR seem capped near 20-day EMAUSD/INR trades cautiously around 92.45, with a bearish near-term bias, as spot holds below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 92.85 after failing to sustain recent highs near 95.12. The Relative Strength Index (14) hovers just below the neutral 50 mark around 46.5, hinting that upside momentum has faded and keeping the risk skewed toward further corrective weakness while price remains capped by the EMA resistance.On the topside, immediate resistance is defined by the 20-day EMA at 92.85, and a daily close above this barrier would be needed to ease downside pressure and reopen the path toward the 93.50–94.00 area. Until then, the absence of nearby identified support levels on the chart leaves USD/INR vulnerable to deeper pullbacks, with traders likely to watch prior reaction lows and round figures below 92.00 as the next potential demand zones if selling resumes.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.

08:36 AUD/USD Price Forecast: Rally pauses as RSI (14) struggles to extend above 60.00
The AUD/USD pair is down 0.23% to near 0.7065 in the late Asian trading session, struggling to extend its winning streak for the fifth trading day on Friday.

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p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}AUD/USD corrects to near 0.7065 after a four-day winning streak.Investors await the outcome of US-Iran ceasefire talks in Pakistan.The US headline CPI is expected to have risen at a faster pace of 3.3% YoY in March.The AUD/USD pair is down 0.23% to near 0.7065 in the late Asian trading session, struggling to extend its winning streak for the fifth trading day on Friday. The Aussie pair comes under pressure as the Australian Dollar (AUD) underperforms amid uncertainty surrounding the first round of talks between the United States (US) and Iran in Pakistan over the weekend regarding the permanent ceasefire. Australian Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.09% 0.15% 0.16% 0.08% 0.23% 0.25% 0.02% EUR -0.09% 0.05% 0.09% -0.03% 0.12% 0.16% -0.08% GBP -0.15% -0.05% 0.04% -0.06% 0.09% 0.11% -0.14% JPY -0.16% -0.09% -0.04% -0.09% 0.07% 0.04% -0.18% CAD -0.08% 0.03% 0.06% 0.09% 0.13% 0.16% -0.07% AUD -0.23% -0.12% -0.09% -0.07% -0.13% 0.02% -0.22% NZD -0.25% -0.16% -0.11% -0.04% -0.16% -0.02% -0.24% CHF -0.02% 0.08% 0.14% 0.18% 0.07% 0.22% 0.24% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Market participants doubt that US-Iran talks will go on smoothly amid continued military attacks in Lebanon between Iran-backed Houthis and the Israeli army.Israeli Prime Minister (PM) Benjamin Netanyahu has pushed back hopes of a ceasefire in Lebanon, stating that Tel Aviv would continue “to strike Hezbollah with full force” as the country’s military launched fresh strikes.On Thursday, Israeli PM Netanyahu stated, through a tweet on X, that he is open to direct negotiations with Lebanon after repeated requests from the nation.On the macro front, investors await the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. The US headline inflation is expected to arrive significantly higher at 3.3% from 2.4% in February.AUD/USD technical analysisAUD/USD trades lower at around 0.7065 as of writing. However, the pair maintains a constructive bullish bias as spot holds above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.6989. The pair has rebounded from last month’s lows and is stabilizing near recent highs.However, the price needs a fresh trigger to extend its upside, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) struggling to break into the 60.00s zone.On the downside, initial support is provided by the 20-day EMA at 0.6989, which reinforces the short-term bullish structure as long as it holds on closing bases. A daily close below this dynamic floor would signal fading upward momentum and expose a deeper correction towards the April 7 low around 0.6900.Looking up, the April 9 high around 0.7100 is the immediate resistance; a decisive break above the same would allow the price to extend its rebound towards the March high at 0.7187.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Economic Indicator Consumer Price Index (YoY) Inflationary or deflationary tendencies are measured by periodically summing the prices of a basket of representative goods and services and presenting the data as The Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI data is compiled on a monthly basis and released by the US Department of Labor Statistics. The YoY reading compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the same month a year earlier.The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Fri Apr 10, 2026 12:30 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 3.3% Previous: 2.4% Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Why it matters to traders? The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has a dual mandate of maintaining price stability and maximum employment. According to such mandate, inflation should be at around 2% YoY and has become the weakest pillar of the central bank’s directive ever since the world suffered a pandemic, which extends to these days. Price pressures keep rising amid supply-chain issues and bottlenecks, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hanging at multi-decade highs. The Fed has already taken measures to tame inflation and is expected to maintain an aggressive stance in the foreseeable future.

08:31 Pound Sterling remains depressed vs USD; GBP/USD holds above 1.3400 as traders await US CPI
The GBP/USD pair drifts lower during the Asian session on Friday, though it lacks follow-through selling and remains close to its highest level since late February, set earlier this week.

08:13 US Dollar Index holds gains near 99.00 ahead of CPI data
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is halting its four-day losing streak and trading around 98.90 during the Asian hours on Friday.

07:49 EUR/USD Price Forecast: Bears seem hesitant as breakout above 1.1670 remains in play
The EUR/USD pair struggles to capitalize on its weekly gains registered over the past four days and trades with a mild negative bias below the 1.1700 mark during the Asian session on Friday.

07:47 India Gold price today: Gold steadies, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices remained broadly unchanged in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

07:36 USD/CHF Price Forecast: Softens to near 0.7900 with rangebound tone ahead of US CPI release
The USD/CHF pair loses ground to near 0.7905 during the early European session on Friday. A fragile two-week ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran provides some support to a safe-haven currency such as the Swiss Franc (CHF) against the US Dollar (USD).

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Technical Analysis:In the daily chart, USD/CHF is hovering just above the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.7893, which lends nearby support, but it remains capped by the Bollinger Bands’ 20-day simple moving average around 0.7932, keeping the broader tone neutral and range-bound. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 49 is essentially flat, hinting that directional conviction is lacking after the recent pullback from higher levels.On the topside, initial resistance is located at the Bollinger midline/20-day SMA near 0.7930, with a break there exposing the upper Bollinger band at roughly 0.8032 as the next hurdle. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 100-day EMA at 0.7895; a clear break below this level would open the way toward the lower Bollinger band support around 0.7832, where buyers could look to defend the broader range.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.

07:30 Gold edges lower as Hormuz risks fuel inflation worries and hawkish Fed bets before US CPI
Gold (XAU/USD) attracts fresh sellers following the previous day's failed attempt to conquer the $4,800 mark and slides to the $4,738-$4,737 region during the Asian session on Friday.

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The precious metal, however, remains confined to a familiar range as traders keenly await the release of the latest US consumer inflation figures for some meaningful impetus.The crucial US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is expected to show that inflation likely rose further in March amid the war-driven surge in Crude Oil prices. This could further discourage the US Federal Reserve (Fed) from cutting interest rates for a while. In fact, Minutes from the March 17–18 FOMC meeting revealed on Wednesday that officials were in no rush to cut rates amid upside risks to inflation stemming from Middle East energy price shocks. Adding to this, tensions around the Strait of Hormuz offer some support to the US Dollar (USD), which, in turn, is seen exerting downward pressure on the Gold price.Iran halted shipping traffic through the strategic waterway in response to brutal Israeli attacks on Lebanon. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump accused Iran of doing a very poor job of handling oil through the Strait of Hormuz, and that it was not the agreement they had. Trump also warned of renewed strikes if the Iran deal fails, suggesting that escalation risks remain on the table. This acts as a tailwind for Crude Oil prices, fueling inflationary concerns and reaffirming hawkish Fed bets. This further undermines the non-yielding Gold, though the lack of follow-through selling warrants caution for bearish traders.Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that he has issued an instruction to start direct negotiations with Lebanon as soon as possible, addressing a key point of contention in the fragile US-Iran ceasefire. A US State Department official reportedly confirmed that talks between Lebanon and Israel will take place next week in Washington, DC. Moreover, crucial US-Iran talks are scheduled in phases between late Friday night and Saturday. This keeps alive hopes of the Iran ceasefire stabilizing, which, in turn, caps any meaningful appreciation for the USD and helps in limiting the downside for the Gold price.XAU/USD 4-hour chartGold bears have the upper hand while below 200-SMA and 61.8% Fibo. confluenceFrom a technical perspective, the XAU/USD pair is holding a neutral-to-slightly bearish tone as it remains capped well below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. The said resistance coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the March downfall and should act as a key pivotal point.Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 56 hints at modest underlying demand after the recent pullback. That said, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has slipped marginally into negative territory, suggesting waning upside momentum and reinforcing the 200-period SMA's strong barrier at $4,883.This is followed closely by the 61.8% Fibo. retracement level at $4,908.40. A clear break above this cluster would open the way toward $5,131.50 and ultimately $5,415.69.On the downside, immediate support is provided by the 50.0% retracement at $4,751.70, with a break there exposing the next Fibonacci floors at $4,595.00 and $4,401.11, ahead of more substantial structural support near $4,087.71.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

07:30 Netherlands, The Manufacturing Output (MoM) dipped from previous 0.4% to -1.3% in February
Netherlands, The Manufacturing Output (MoM) dipped from previous 0.4% to -1.3% in February

07:09 EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Eyes upper ascending channel boundary near 186.50
EUR/JPY extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around 186.10 during the Asian hours on Friday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates the currency cross is trending higher within an ascending channel, signaling a persistent bullish bias.

07:00 US CPI inflation set to jump sharply in March, driven by higher energy prices
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Friday. The report is expected to show a jump in inflation, driven by the upsurge seen in crude Oil prices after the United States (US) and Israel launched a joint attack on Iran.

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50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The US Consumer Price Index is expected to rise 3.3% YoY in March, sharply up due to higher energy prices.Annual core CPI inflation is expected to edge slightly higher to 2.7%.EUR/USD’s technical outlook points to a bullish tilt in the near term. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Friday. The report is expected to show a jump in inflation, driven by the upsurge seen in crude Oil prices after the United States (US) and Israel launched a joint attack on Iran. The monthly CPI is forecast to rise 0.9%, following the 0.3% increase recorded in March, while the annual reading is seen climbing to its highest level since May 2024 at 3.3%, from 2.4% in February. Core CPI figures, which exclude volatile food and energy prices, are expected to come in at 0.3% and 2.7%, on a monthly and yearly basis, respectively. Since the beginning of the conflict in the Middle East on February 28, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is up about 40%, even after the sharp decline seen following the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran earlier this week. In March, WTI gained nearly 50%, rising from about $67 per barrel to settle near-$100 by the end of the month. Previewing the inflation data, “the recent surge in crude prices will be the main factor behind the 0.9% m/m jump in the CPI. The Y/Y rate will leap close to 1pp to 3.3% in March—a two-year-high,” said TD Securities analysts.“Core inflation will stay shielded from the oil shock for now, rising 0.27% m/m. We look for tariff pass-through to continue playing a role by lifting goods prices. Supercore inflation likely stayed firm at 0.3%,” they added. Economic Indicator Consumer Price Index (YoY) Inflationary or deflationary tendencies are measured by periodically summing the prices of a basket of representative goods and services and presenting the data as The Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI data is compiled on a monthly basis and released by the US Department of Labor Statistics. The YoY reading compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the same month a year earlier.The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Fri Apr 10, 2026 12:30 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 3.3% Previous: 2.4% Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Why it matters to traders? The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has a dual mandate of maintaining price stability and maximum employment. According to such mandate, inflation should be at around 2% YoY and has become the weakest pillar of the central bank’s directive ever since the world suffered a pandemic, which extends to these days. Price pressures keep rising amid supply-chain issues and bottlenecks, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hanging at multi-decade highs. The Fed has already taken measures to tame inflation and is expected to maintain an aggressive stance in the foreseeable future. What to expect in the next CPI data report?CPI figures for March will reflect the impact of high Oil prices on inflation, which shouldn’t be surprising. Even if the annual CPI inflation rises 3.3% in March, as forecast, investors could see that as a temporary increase in case they remain confident that Oil prices will come down significantly, with a permanent truce in the Middle East allowing the Strait of Hormuz to remain open. However, the growing uncertainty about the sustainability of a ceasefire and Iran’s condition to retain control of the strait in a peace agreement complicates the picture and raises doubts about a steady pullback in Oil prices. Hence, the developments in the Middle East are likely to shape inflation expectations, rather than the March CPI reading itself. The Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) March meeting showed that a number of policymakers are already pushing back the timing of potential rate cuts, reflecting lingering concerns that inflation could prove more persistent than expected. In fact, a large majority flagged the risk that price pressures could stay elevated for longer, particularly if higher Oil prices feed through more broadly.“Provided that underlying inflation excluding energy remains contained, the Fed can afford to look through the oil-price shock and refrain from raising rates amid a mixed US labor market backdrop,” BBH analysts said. How could the US Consumer Price Index report affect EUR/USD?Markets currently see about a 75% chance of the Fed leaving the policy rate unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% by the end of the year, compared to a 17% probability seen on March 9, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Source: CME GroupA stronger-than-forecast monthly CPI print for March might not be able to influence the market pricing of the Fed’s interest-rate outlook in a significant way. However, if a hot inflation print is combined with a re-escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and growing expectations about the naval activity in the Strait of Hormuz not going back to its pre-war state anytime soon, investors could reassess the probability of a Fed hike in response to persistent inflation. In this scenario, the US Dollar (USD) could gather strength and force EUR/USD to turn south.Conversely, the USD could remain under bearish pressure – and allow EUR/USD to extend its rebound – in case crude Oil prices continue to come down in a steady way, regardless of the March CPI figures.In summary, March inflation prints are unlikely to trigger a significant market reaction, while market focus remains on the US-Iran crisis and its impact on Oil prices.Eren Sengezer, FXStreet European Session Lead Analyst, shares a brief technical outlook for EUR/USD. “EUR/USD’s near-term technical outlook points to a bullish tilt. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart climbed above 50 for the first time since the beginning of the US-Iran war and the pair broke above the two-month-old descending trend line.”“The Fibonacci 50% retracement level of the February-April trend aligns as the next resistance level at 1.1730 ahead of 1.1800 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement) and 1.1900 (Fibonacci 78.6% retracement). On the downside, the immediate support is located at 1.1650 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement). In case this support fails, technical sellers could show interest, opening the door for an extended slide toward 1.1560 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement) and 1.1500 (static level, round level).” Inflation FAQs What is inflation? Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%. What is the Consumer Price Index (CPI)? The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls. What is the impact of inflation on foreign exchange? Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money. How does inflation influence the price of Gold? Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.

06:30 Indonesia Consumer Confidence down to 122.9 in March from previous 125.2
Indonesia Consumer Confidence down to 122.9 in March from previous 125.2

06:29 Canadian Dollar declines as oil prices ease, US Dollar gains
USD/CAD gains ground after four days of losses, trading around 1.3820 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair appreciates as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) struggles amid lower oil prices, given Canada’s status as the largest crude exporter to the United States (US).

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/CAD rises as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar weakens amid falling oil prices.WTI drops over 11.5% this week after the US–Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, easing supply concerns.US official confirms Lebanon–Israel talks will be held next week in Washington, DC.USD/CAD gains ground after four days of losses, trading around 1.3820 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair appreciates as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) struggles amid lower oil prices, given Canada’s status as the largest crude exporter to the United States (US).West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price holds losses after experiencing volatility, trading around $91.80 per barrel at the time of writing. The WTI price is down by over 11.5% for the week, at the time of writing, after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire.However, crude oil prices may regain ground as Israeli strikes on Lebanon and the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz strain diplomatic efforts. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that there is “no ceasefire in Lebanon” and Israel would continue “to strike Hezbollah with full force” as the country’s military launched fresh strikes.Reuters reported that a US State Department official confirmed that talks between Lebanon and Israel will take place next week in Washington, DC. “We can confirm that the Department will host a meeting next week to discuss ongoing ceasefire negotiations with Israel and Lebanon,” said a US official.US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) March Meeting Minutes suggest the central bank remains in a wait-and-see stance, while acknowledging that inflationary risks linked to higher oil prices are becoming more balanced. Traders await the US Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) report due later in the North American session. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

06:16 USD/KRW holds intraday gains around 1,480 as BoK advocates wait mode amid Iran risks
The USD/KRW pair holds onto its early gains around 1,478.00 during the Asian trading session on Friday.

05:34 Japanese Yen softens on fragile US‑Iran ceasefire, eyes on US CPI release
The USD/JPY pair gathers strength to around 159.15 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. Ongoing concerns regarding the Strait of Hormuz and the Middle East continue to lift the US Dollar (USD) against the Japanese Yen (JPY).

05:28 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD consolidates below mid-$75.00s; 200-EMA on H4 holds the key
Silver (XAG/USD) struggles to capitalize on a three-day-old modest recovery from levels below the $70.00 psychological mark and oscillates in a narrow band during the Asian session on Friday.

05:09 Pound Sterling slips as renewed risk aversion lifts US Dollar
GBP/USD edges lower after four days of gains, trading around 1.3430 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) holds ground on renewed risk aversion, which could be attributed to the uncertainty over the United States (US)-Iran ceasefire.

04:52 AUD/JPY flat lines above 112.50, highest since March 18 after Chinese inflation data
The AUD/JPY cross enters a bullish consolidation phase during the Asian session on Friday and reacts little to mixed Chinese inflation figures. Spot prices currently trade just above mid-112.00s, or the highest level since March 18, and remain on track to register strong weekly gains.

04:46 NZD/USD holds losses near 0.5850 on mixed Chinese data, US CPI looms
The NZD/USD pair edges lower to near 0.5855 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) remains weak against the US Dollar (USD) after mixed Chinese economic data. The attention will shift to the US inflation report later on Friday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}NZD/USD declines to around 0.5855 in Friday’s Asian session. Chinese CPI rose 1.0% YoY in March, softer than expected; PPI climbed more than expected. The US March CPI inflation data will be closely watched later on Friday. The NZD/USD pair edges lower to near 0.5855 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) remains weak against the US Dollar (USD) after mixed Chinese economic data. The attention will shift to the US inflation report later on Friday. Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on Friday showed that China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 1.0% YoY in March, compared to a rise of 1.3% in February. This figure came in softer than the estimations of 1.2%. On a monthly basis, Chinese CPI inflation arrived at -0.7% in March, versus a rise of 1.0% prior, softer than the expectation of a 0.2% decline. Additionally, China’s Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.5% YoY in March, following a 0.9% fall in February. The reading came in above the market consensus of a 0.4% increase. However, these mixed reports have little to no impact on the China-proxy Kiwi. The US March Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report will be the highlight on Friday. The headline CPI is projected to see a rise of 3.3% YoY in March, compared to 2.4% in February, driven by soaring oil prices due to the Middle East war. Meanwhile, the core CPI is expected to see an increase of 2.7% in March, versus 2.5% prior. In case of a softer-than-expected outcome, this could weigh on the USD against the NZD. Escalating tensions and uncertainty in the Middle East could boost a safe-haven currency such as the Greenback. US President Donald Trump accused Iran of doing a "very poor job" of handling oil through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump added that he expects Iran to comply with terms he says were agreed on for a ceasefire ahead of planned negotiations this weekend, warning that if it doesn't, he'll order large-scale attacks on the country.US Vice President JD Vance and senior envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are scheduled for talks in Pakistan on Saturday on a potential long-term deal with Iran. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

04:36 Australian Dollar holds losses following China CPI data
AUD/USD halts its four-day winning streak, trading around 0.7070 during the Asian hours on Friday. However, the pair is up over 2.5% on the week at the time of writing.

04:31 BoJ’s Himino: Don't think Japan’s economy is in stagflation.
Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino said on Friday, “don't think Japan’s economy is in stagflation.”

04:30 China Consumer Price Index (MoM) below forecasts (-0.2%) in March: Actual (-0.7%)
China Consumer Price Index (MoM) below forecasts (-0.2%) in March: Actual (-0.7%)

04:30 China Producer Price Index (YoY) above forecasts (0.4%) in March: Actual (0.5%)
China Producer Price Index (YoY) above forecasts (0.4%) in March: Actual (0.5%)

04:30 China Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 1%, below expectations (1.2%) in March
China Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 1%, below expectations (1.2%) in March

04:16 WTI holds steady above $92.00 as Strait of Hormuz remains closed; bulls seem hesitant
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – trades with a mild positive bias during the Asian session on Friday, though it lacks bullish conviction amid hopes of Iran ceasefire stabilizing.

04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8654 vs. 6.8649 previous
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Friday at 6.8654 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.8649 and 6.8313 Reuters estimate.

03:59 South Korea BoK Interest Rate Decision in line with forecasts (2.5%)
South Korea BoK Interest Rate Decision in line with forecasts (2.5%)

03:50 EUR/USD weakens below 1.1700 as traders brace for US CPI data, US-Iran peace talks
The EUR/USD pair trades in negative territory around 1.1690 during the early Asian session on Friday. The Euro (EUR) weakens against the US Dollar (USD) as traders remain cautious about whether a fragile two-week ceasefire between the United States and ‌Iran would hold.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD softens to near 1.1690 in Friday’s early Asian session. A US delegation is preparing for peace talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, on Saturday. Traders await the US March CPI inflation report on Friday for fresh impetus. The EUR/USD pair trades in negative territory around 1.1690 during the early Asian session on Friday. The Euro (EUR) weakens against the US Dollar (USD) as traders remain cautious about whether a fragile two-week ceasefire between the United States and ‌Iran would hold. All eyes will be on the US March Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report later on Friday. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said on Thursday that holding talks to end the war is contingent on the US adhering to its ceasefire commitments. He claimed that those commitments include a ceasefire in Lebanon, which the US and Israel insist was not part of the deal.US Vice President JD Vance and senior envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are preparing for talks in Pakistan this weekend on a potential long-term deal with Iran. A two-week pause in hostilities appears to be largely holding. However, uncertainty remains high in the Middle East, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that the country will "continue to strike Hezbollah with force.” Persistent tension in this region could boost a safe-haven currency such as the Greenback and act as a headwind for the major pair in the near term. The US CPI inflation report for March will be in the spotlight on Friday. The headline CPI is projected to see a rise of 3.3% YoY in March, compared to 2.4% in February, driven by soaring oil prices due to the Middle East war. In case of a softer-than-expected outcome, this could weigh on the USD against the EUR. Across the pond, the European Central Bank (ECB) has adopted a hawkish tone, with policymakers signaling a shift toward potential further tightening if price pressures persist. Traders have ramped up bets, with markets now fully priced in two rate hikes and more than a 50% chance of a third move by December, according to Reuters. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

03:29 Israel to open direct talks with Lebanon
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Friday that he has issued an instruction to start direct negotiations with Lebanon “as soon as possible”, the Washington Post reported on Friday. However, Netanyahu insisted that Israel’s attacks across the country targeting Hezbollah would continue.

03:01 Japan plans to release 20-days worth of oil stock from early May onwards
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said that the government is weighing a plan to release approximately 20 days' worth of additional oil reserves starting from early May onwards, Reuters reported on Friday.

02:50 Japan Producer Price Index (MoM) below expectations (0.9%) in March: Actual (0.8%)
Japan Producer Price Index (MoM) below expectations (0.9%) in March: Actual (0.8%)

02:50 Japan Producer Price Index (YoY) registered at 2.6% above expectations (2.4%) in March
Japan Producer Price Index (YoY) registered at 2.6% above expectations (2.4%) in March

02:50 Japan Bank Lending (YoY) came in at 4.8%, above expectations (4.4%) in March
Japan Bank Lending (YoY) came in at 4.8%, above expectations (4.4%) in March

02:49 US President Donald Trump: Iran's handling of oil through Strait of Hormuz is not agreement we have
US President Donald Trump accused Iran of doing a "very poor job" of handling oil through the Strait of Hormuz and is saying it was "not the agreement we have,” BBC reported late Thursday. Trump further stated that Iran "better not be" charging ships to pass through the key waterway.

US President Donald Trump accused Iran of doing a "very poor job" of handling oil through the Strait of Hormuz and is saying it was "not the agreement we have,” BBC reported late Thursday. Trump further stated that Iran "better not be" charging ships to pass through the key waterway.
Trump said that he expects Iran to comply with terms he says were agreed on for a ceasefire ahead of planned negotiations this weekend, warning that if it doesn't, he'll order large-scale attacks on the country.

02:29 When are the China’s CPI, PPI and how could they affect AUD/USD?
The National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) will publish its data for March at 01.30 GMT. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show a rise of 1.2% YoY in March, compared to 1.3% in February.

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50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} China’s CPI, PPI OverviewThe National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) will publish its data for March at 01.30 GMT. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show a rise of 1.2% YoY in March, compared to 1.3% in February. The Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected to show an increase of 0.4% YoY in March versus a fall of 0.9% prior. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. Meanwhile, the PPI is a measurement of the rate of inflation experienced by producers.How could the China’s CPI, PPI affect AUD/USD?AUD/USD trades on a negative note on the day in the lead up to China’s CPI, PPI data. The pair edges lower as market uncertainty persists regarding the fragility of the US-Iran ceasefire, boosting demand for safe-haven currencies such as the US Dollar (USD). If data comes in better than expected, it could lift the Australian Dollar (AUD), with the first upside barrier seen at April 9 high of 0.7095. The next resistance level emerges at the February 26 high of 0.7143. The additional upside filter to watch is the March 11 high of 0.7188.To the downside, the 0.7000 psychological level will offer some comfort to buyers. Extended losses could see a drop to the February 5 low of 0.6927, followed by the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 0.6880. Economic Indicator Consumer Price Index (YoY) The Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on a monthly basis, measures changes in the price level of consumer goods and services purchased by residents. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Renminbi (CNY), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Fri Apr 10, 2026 01:30 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 1.2% Previous: 1.3% Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

02:11 Gold declines to near $4,750 as oil-driven inflation worries weigh ahead of US CPI data
Gold price (XAU/USD) trades with mild losses near $4,760 during the early Asian session on Friday. The precious metal declines as market uncertainty persists regarding the fragility of the US-Iran ceasefire and reports of continued Middle East conflict, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

02:01 Colombia Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 5.56%, above expectations (5.47%) in March
Colombia Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 5.56%, above expectations (5.47%) in March

02:01 Colombia Consumer Price Index (MoM) registered at 0.78% above expectations (0.69%) in March
Colombia Consumer Price Index (MoM) registered at 0.78% above expectations (0.69%) in March

01:34 GBP/USD grinds higher but 1.3450 resistance refuses to budge
GBP/USD added 0.31% on Thursday, pushing into the mid-1.3400s as the US-Iran ceasefire continued to weigh on the US Dollar. But the rally is starting to feel laboured.

Cable climbed for a fourth straight session on Thursday, but upside momentum is fading near a key resistance zone around 1.3450.Hotter-than-expected February PCE data did little to dent the risk rally, though hawkish Federal Reserve minutes linger in the background.No UK data on Friday's calendar leaves GBP/USD entirely at the mercy of the March Consumer Price Index release.Rate futures show almost no chance of a Fed cut before September, keeping the US Dollar's yield advantage intact. GBP/USD added 0.31% on Thursday, pushing into the mid-1.3400s as the US-Iran ceasefire continued to weigh on the US Dollar. But the rally is starting to feel laboured. The pair touched 1.3480 earlier in the session before pulling back, and the 1.3400-1.3450 zone is shaping up as a stubborn technical ceiling.The ceasefire giveth, PCE taketh awaySterling has been riding the same wave as the rest of the G10: the two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran has crushed the Dollar's safe-haven premium, allowing risk-sensitive currencies to recover from their early-April lows. GBP/USD bounced from around 1.3150 at the start of the month and has now clawed back roughly 300 pips. But Thursday's session showed signs that the easy gains are over. The February Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, released at 12:30 GMT, showed headline inflation at 2.8% YoY, above the 2.6% consensus. Core PCE ticked to 3.0% YoY, matching forecasts but underlining how far the Federal Reserve (Fed) remains from its 2% target. Monthly readings of 0.4% on both headline and core were firmer than expected. The data did not spark a meaningful Dollar rally, but it planted a seed of doubt about how long the ceasefire-driven selloff in the Greenback can last.March CPI: the week's main event arrives FridayFriday's March Consumer Price Index (CPI) release at 12:30 GMT is the most important data point of the week, and arguably the most consequential inflation print in months. Economists expect headline CPI to jump 0.8% MoM, which would push the YoY rate to roughly 3.1%-3.3%, reflecting the initial energy price shock from the Iran conflict. Core CPI is forecast at a more benign 0.2%-0.3% MoM and 2.7% YoY. The distinction between headline and core will be critical. If core CPI comes in soft, markets can argue the inflation spike is energy-driven and temporary, particularly if the ceasefire holds and Oil prices continue to ease. That would be Sterling-positive. But if core surprises to the upside, suggesting that elevated energy costs are already bleeding into broader prices, the Fed's hawkish contingent gains ammunition and the US Dollar could stage a sharp reversal.GBP/USD daily chart
Technical Analysis:In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3435, holding a bullish near-term bias as spot remains above both the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at 1.3388 and 1.3372 respectively. The alignment of shorter- and longer-term EMAs below price suggests an underlying constructive structure, while the Stochastic RSI around 62 indicates positive but not yet overbought momentum, hinting that buyers still retain control, albeit with scope for consolidation after the recent advance.On the downside, immediate support emerges at the 50-day EMA near 1.3388, with the 200-day EMA at 1.3372 reinforcing a slightly deeper demand zone should a pullback extend. As long as GBP/USD holds above this EMA cluster, the broader upside tone is likely to persist, and any dips towards these levels may attract fresh buying interest, with the absence of nearby mapped resistance leaving the topside technically open until new highs establish a clearer cap.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

01:30 New Zealand Business NZ PMI dipped from previous 55 to 53.2 in March
New Zealand Business NZ PMI dipped from previous 55 to 53.2 in March

01:07 AUD/USD climbs as ceasefire rally meets a PCE wall
AUD/USD rose 0.56% on Thursday, extending its winning streak to four sessions as the ceasefire-driven risk rally continued to lift the Aussie Dollar.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian Dollar gained ground for a fourth consecutive session, pushing toward 0.7100 for the first time since late March.February Personal Consumption Expenditures data came in hotter than forecast, with headline PCE printing 2.8% YoY against a 2.6% consensus.The US-Iran ceasefire continues to fuel risk appetite, but Friday's Consumer Price Index report could shift the narrative sharply.Rate futures now price the Federal Reserve holding at 3.50%-3.75% through at least September.AUD/USD rose 0.56% on Thursday, extending its winning streak to four sessions as the ceasefire-driven risk rally continued to lift the Aussie Dollar. The pair is now flirting with the 0.7100 handle, a level it has not traded at since late March, and well above the 200-period exponential moving average near 0.6950 on the hourly chart. Stochastic RSI has pushed back above 80, suggesting momentum is running hot but not yet exhausted.The ceasefire trade keeps givingThe two-week halt in US military operations against Iran, announced earlier in the week, remains the dominant driver. President Trump's decision to pause strikes in exchange for Iran's agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz has pulled the rug from under the US Dollar's safe-haven bid. The move has been especially generous to commodity-linked currencies like the Aussie, which had spent much of early April pinned near 0.6900 on geopolitical anxiety. The risk is that the ceasefire is fragile. Questions remain over whether Israel will halt operations in Lebanon, a condition Iran reportedly attached to the deal. Any sign of escalation over the weekend could reverse AUD/USD gains quickly.PCE lands hot, but markets shrugThursday's February Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data was a mixed bag. Headline PCE printed at 2.8% YoY, above the 2.6% consensus forecast, while core PCE came in at 3.0% YoY, matching expectations but still uncomfortably far from the Federal Reserve's (Fed) 2% target. On a monthly basis, both headline and core rose 0.4%, stronger than expected. In normal circumstances, that kind of print would send the US Dollar higher. But markets are clearly more focused on the geopolitical mood shift than backward-looking inflation data from February, which does not yet capture the impact of the Iran conflict on energy prices.Friday's CPI is the real testThe March Consumer Price Index (CPI) report drops at 12:30 GMT on Friday and is expected to show the first clear imprint of the Iran war on consumer prices. Economists surveyed by FactSet expect headline CPI to surge 0.8% MoM, driven by a sharp jump in energy costs, pushing the YoY rate to around 3.1%-3.3%. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, is forecast at a more modest 0.2%-0.3% MoM and 2.7% YoY. For AUD/USD, the CPI print is a double-edged sword. A hotter-than-expected number could revive rate hike expectations and give the US Dollar a jolt, dragging the pair off its highs. A softer core reading, on the other hand, would validate the market's view that the inflation spike is energy-driven and transitory, giving the Aussie room to push through 0.7100. With no meaningful Australian data on the calendar Friday, the pair's fate rests entirely with the US data docket.AUD/USD daily chartTechnical AnalysisIn the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7084. The pair holds a constructive near-term bias as spot remains comfortably above both the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.6967 and the 200-day EMA at 0.6752, keeping the broader uptrend intact after the latest bounce from sub-0.70 levels. The Stochastic RSI around 57 hints at improving but not yet overbought momentum, suggesting that buyers still retain control while leaving room for further upside extension.On the downside, immediate support is seen near the recent close at 0.7084, with the 50-day EMA at 0.6967 providing the next layer of dynamic support ahead of the more strategic 200-day EMA at 0.6752. As long as AUD/USD holds above the 50-day EMA, pullbacks are likely to be treated as corrective within the broader bullish structure, while a sustained break beneath that level would expose the 200-day EMA as the next downside target.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

00:58 USD/JPY Price Forecast: Head-and-shoulders signals downside risk
USD/JPY rises and tests the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 159.19 on Thursday, yet it retreated amid an improvement in risk appetite, a headwind to the safe-haven appeal of the US Dollar. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 158.99, up 0.28%.

00:38 NZD/USD surges as geopolitics and Fed stance favor the Kiwi
The NZD/USD pair is trading muted near 0.5860 on Friday, after climbing for four straight days, hovering near recent highs as the US Dollar (USD) remains supported by a combination of geopolitical tensions and a cautious Federal Reserve outlook.

Persistent geopolitical tensions continue to support USD demand.Elevated oil prices are reinforcing inflation expectations in the US.A cautious RBNZ versus a relatively firm Fed stance makes a gap in the NZD/USD.The NZD/USD pair is trading muted near 0.5860 on Friday, after climbing for four straight days, hovering near recent highs as the US Dollar (USD) remains supported by a combination of geopolitical tensions and a cautious Federal Reserve outlook.The breakdown in communication between the United States and Iran, alongside ongoing military activity and uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz, has kept risk appetite fragile. This environment tends to weigh on risk-sensitive currencies like the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), while supporting the USD through safe-haven demand and elevated US yields.At the same time, recent US data has reinforced a resilient economic backdrop. While Initial Jobless Claims came in higher than expected, suggesting some softening in the labor market, the broader narrative remains one of relative strength. More importantly, inflation concerns persist, particularly as rising oil prices linked to geopolitical tensions threaten to feed into headline inflation.This dynamic supports the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance, with policymakers signaling they are in no rush to cut rates. The “higher-for-longer” narrative continues to underpin the Greenback, keeping NZD/USD on the defensive.On the New Zealand side, the backdrop remains mixed following the recent Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decision. While inflation remains slightly above target, policymakers are balancing upside price risks with a fragile domestic economy. Markets see limited room for aggressive tightening, reducing the NZD cap.
Technical analysis:On the four-hour chart, NZD/USD trades at 0.5863. The pair holds a constructive near-term bias, trading above both the 20-period simple moving average (SMA) at 0.5791 and the 100-period SMA at 0.5779, which underpins the recent recovery. However, the Relative Strength Index (14) sits deep in overbought territory near 75, hinting that upside momentum is stretched even as price action remains supported.On the topside, initial resistance emerges at 0.5868, with further barriers aligning at 0.5907 and 0.5930, ahead of a more distant hurdle around 0.5965. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.5854, followed by 0.5838 and 0.5831, while the clustered 20-period and 100-period SMAs at 0.5791 and 0.5779 respectively are set to act as a deeper demand zone on any corrective pullback.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

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20:05 United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count up to 411 from previous 409 United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count up to 411 from previous 409

19:55 Dow Jones Industrial Average gives back recent gains as ceasefire doubts resurface The Dow Jones Industrial Average slumped around 300 points on Friday, or roughly 0.6%, retreating from the 48,000 handle after two sessions of ceasefire-fueled gains.

19:20 USD/CAD trims losses as geopolitics overshadow US CPI and Canadian jobs data USD/CAD reverses earlier losses on Wednesday, as uncertainty surrounding upcoming US-Iran negotiations keeps markets cautious and overshadows US inflation and Canadian employment data, keeping price action volatile.

19:04 AUD/USD muted as hot US CPI reinforces Fed’s higher-for-longer stance The AUD/USD pair steadies on Friday, posting a slight decline after a four-day strike of gains, trading with a cautious tone amid fresh data releases in the US and geopolitical risks.

18:59 Russia Consumer Price Index (MoM) above expectations (0.5%) in March: Actual (0.6%) Russia Consumer Price Index (MoM) above expectations (0.5%) in March: Actual (0.6%)

18:13 Iran demands a ceasefire in Lebanon before talks Iran's ‌parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said on Friday that two previously agreed measures, a ceasefire in Lebanon and the release of Iran's blocked assets, must be implemented before negotiations begin, according to Reuters.

18:01 Canada: Wage strength tempers BoC cut hopes – TD Securities TD Securities strategists Robert Both and Emma Lawrence note that Canadian labour markets showed a modest rebound in March, with 14k jobs added and the unemployment rate steady at 6.7%.

17:38 Oil: Fragile ceasefire keeps supply risks elevated – Wells Fargo Wells Fargo’s international economics team notes that a fragile ceasefire in the Middle East leaves Oil market risks elevated and conviction on the outlook low.

17:35 US UoM Consumer Sentiment Index is seen at 47.6 in April American consumer confidence deflated in early April, as households grew more pessimistic about current conditions and the broader economic outlook, according to preliminary data from the University of Michigan.

17:26 Fed: Patience maintained with two cuts still projected – TD Securities Oscar Munoz and the TD Securities US macro team judge that, although core CPI surprised on the soft side and tariff pass-through moderated, it is too early for markets to extrapolate a dovish signal.

17:17 BoK: Data driven path to possible July hike – ING ING’s Senior Economist Min Joo Kang notes that the Bank of Korea kept its policy rate at 2.5% and stressed a data-dependent stance as inflation pressures rise and GDP growth projections weaken.

17:08 US: Energy shock complicates Fed path – Commerzbank Commerzbank’s Bernd Weidensteiner notes that U.S. inflation jumped to 3.3% in March, driven mainly by higher gasoline prices linked to the war in Iran, while core inflation remains moderate.

17:00 United States Michigan Consumer Expectations Index: 46.1 (April) vs previous 51.7 United States Michigan Consumer Expectations Index: 46.1 (April) vs previous 51.7

17:00 United States UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations: 4.8% (April) vs 3.8% United States UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations: 4.8% (April) vs 3.8%

17:00 United States UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation increased to 3.4% in April from previous 3.2% United States UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation increased to 3.4% in April from previous 3.2%

17:00 United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index registered at 47.6, below expectations (52) in April United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index registered at 47.6, below expectations (52) in April

17:00 United States Factory Orders (MoM) came in at 0%, above expectations (-0.2%) in February United States Factory Orders (MoM) came in at 0%, above expectations (-0.2%) in February

16:53 Oil: Motor fuel demand and behavior shifts – UBS UBS economist Paul Donovan discusses how visible Oil prices at fuel stations interact with changing consumer behavior in major economies.

16:43 Canada: Labour outlook stabilizing with gradual improvement – RBC Royal Bank of Canada’s (RBC) Nathan Janzen notes that Canadian labour market conditions steadied in March, with a modest employment gain and an unemployment rate holding at 6.7%.

16:28 USD/JPY: Rebound capped by 159.60 with downside risk to 157.50 – UOB United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) economists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann see USD/JPY edging higher in the near term after rebounding from oversold levels, but expects gains to be limited below 159.60.

16:16 Euro: Hungary vote seen modestly supportive – Rabobank Rabobank's Head of Macro Strategy Elwin de Groot argues that Hungary’s parliamentary election could have supportive implications for the Euro if Viktor Orbán loses power.

16:05 NZD: Hawkish pricing seen as demanding – OCBC OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has rallied on hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) rhetoric and easing Oil risks, but warns markets may be overpricing tightening.

15:55 Poland: Neutral NBP stance supports stable Zloty – ING ING economists expect National Bank of Poland (NBP) rates to stay unchanged after April’s decision to hold the reference rate at 3.75%.

15:46 Hungary: Election seen pivotal for EU trajectory – Danske Bank Danske Research Team underlines that Sunday’s Hungarian election could be crucial for European Union politics.

15:35 Canada: Unemployment Rate held steady at 6.7% in March Statistics Canada reported on Friday that the Unemployment Rate helds steady at 6.7% in March, coming short of what markets were expecting.

15:35 MXN: Dovish Banxico and depreciation outlook – Commerzbank Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister and Norman Liebke note that Mexico’s latest inflation data and Banxico minutes support a dovish stance.

15:31 United States Consumer Price Index Core s.a up to 334.165 in March from previous 333.51 United States Consumer Price Index Core s.a up to 334.165 in March from previous 333.51

15:30 Germany Current Account n.s.a. rose from previous €17.1B to €22B in February Germany Current Account n.s.a. rose from previous €17.1B to €22B in February

15:30 United States Consumer Price Index (MoM) meets expectations (0.9%) in March United States Consumer Price Index (MoM) meets expectations (0.9%) in March

15:30 United States Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) came in at 0.2%, below expectations (0.3%) in March United States Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) came in at 0.2%, below expectations (0.3%) in March

15:30 United States Consumer Price Index (YoY) meets forecasts (3.3%) in March United States Consumer Price Index (YoY) meets forecasts (3.3%) in March

15:30 United States Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) below forecasts (330.41) in March: Actual (330.21) United States Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) below forecasts (330.41) in March: Actual (330.21)

15:30 United States Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) registered at 2.6%, below expectations (2.7%) in March United States Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) registered at 2.6%, below expectations (2.7%) in March

15:30 Canada Unemployment Rate below forecasts (6.8%) in March: Actual (6.7%) Canada Unemployment Rate below forecasts (6.8%) in March: Actual (6.7%)

15:30 Canada Net Change in Employment came in at 14.1K, below expectations (15K) in March Canada Net Change in Employment came in at 14.1K, below expectations (15K) in March

15:30 Canada Participation Rate remains unchanged at 64.9% in March Canada Participation Rate remains unchanged at 64.9% in March

15:05 DXY: Shipping risk, inflation path and Fed easing – BBH Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that global markets are cautious ahead of US-Iran ceasefire talks, with Brent, equities and bonds reacting while the Dollar stabilizes.

15:05 Gold holds steady in a narrow range ahead of US CPI data Gold (XAU/USD) oscillates within a narrow range on Friday as markets continue to monitor the evolving situation in the Middle East, while traders also stay on the sidelines ahead of US inflation data.

15:00 Mexico Industrial Output (YoY) came in at -1.3%, below expectations (-0.7%) in February Mexico Industrial Output (YoY) came in at -1.3%, below expectations (-0.7%) in February

15:00 Brazil IPCA Inflation registered at 0.88% above expectations (0.77%) in March Brazil IPCA Inflation registered at 0.88% above expectations (0.77%) in March

14:50 CAD: Labour data expected to stay soft – TD Securities TD Securities’ Global Strategy Team expects a muted rebound in Canadian labour markets, forecasting only 10k new jobs in March and an unemployment rate of 6.8%.

14:38 Pound Sterling rises on Russia-Ukraine peace optimism, US-Iran talks awaited The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades higher against its major currency peers, except other European currencies, edging up to near 1.3444 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Friday.

14:34 USD: Inflation focus into CPI release – TD Securities TD Securities’ Global Strategy Team highlights that United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the key event, with core inflation expected to rise 0.27% m/m and headline CPI to jump 0.90% m/m as higher Oil prices feed through.

14:30 India FX Reserves, USD increased to $697.12B in March 30 from previous $688.06B India FX Reserves, USD increased to $697.12B in March 30 from previous $688.06B

14:27 USD/JPY returns above 159.00 with Iran’s peace deal on tenterhooks The US Dollar (USD) remains steady, relatively close to the key 160.00 level against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Friday, as the fragility of the ceasefire in Iran has prompted investors to cut down US dollar shorts.

14:22 EUR: Tightening expectations support Euro – ING ING’s Francesco Pesole highlights that markets now price only 6bp for a European Central Bank (ECB) hike on 30 April, while around 55bp remains priced by year-end.

14:03 When is the Canadian employment data and how it could it affect USD/CAD? The Canadian labor market data for March is scheduled to be published today at 12:30 GMT.

13:20 Ukraine nears peace deal with Russia – Bloomberg According to a report from Bloomberg, a senior adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said during European trading hours on Friday that Kyiv is close to reaching a peace deal with Russia.

12:40 Fed: Limited inflation shock, delayed cuts – Commerzbank Commerzbank economist Bernd Weidensteiner notes that the Federal Reserve sees itself in a good position despite Iran‑related inflation risks, with officials expecting only a small core inflation impact.

12:30 Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Friday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $75.16 per troy ounce, down 0.23% from the $75.33 it cost on Thursday.

12:21 ECB: Four rate hikes still baseline despite ceasefire – Nordea Nordea’s Jan von Gerich and Tuuli Koivu updated their ECB outlook before the ceasefire news and now expect four 25bp hikes starting in June.

11:56 Brent: Geopolitics keep risk premium elevated – Rabobank Rabobank’s RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets team notes that Brent crude has firmed as markets weigh a fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran and severe disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.

11:48 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD wobbles around $75 in countdown to US-Iran talks Silver price (XAG/USD) trades in a tight range around $75.00 during the European trading session on Friday.

11:47 US: War burden and spending power – UBS UBS economist Paul Donovan discusses how US March consumer price inflation highlights US consumers’ war-related burden and affordability concerns.

11:20 BRL: Hawkish tilt and supported real – Commerzbank Commerzbank analysts Michael Pfister and Norman Liebke highlight that Brazil’s inflation edged higher in February, and they expect today’s March data to show another fairly sharp rise in prices.

11:02 USD: Inflation and peace risks shape Dollar – ING ING’s Francesco Pesole notes that the US Dollar Index remains just below 99.0, with further downside seen if a permanent Middle East peace deal is agreed and Strait of Hormuz flows resume.

11:00 Italy Industrial Output s.a. (MoM) below forecasts (0.5%) in February: Actual (0.1%) Italy Industrial Output s.a. (MoM) below forecasts (0.5%) in February: Actual (0.1%)

11:00 Italy Industrial Output w.d.a (YoY) in line with forecasts (0.5%) in February Italy Industrial Output w.d.a (YoY) in line with forecasts (0.5%) in February

10:57 IDF remains in state of war with Lebanon According to a report from the Guardian, Israel Defense Forces (IDF) chief of staff, Eyal Zamir, said that forces are continuing their combat operations in southern Lebanon and are “not in a ceasefire” with Hezbollah.

10:47 US equities: Outlook-driven earnings season – BNY BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage argues that Q1 US equities will be driven more by forward guidance than reported earnings, with consensus S&P 500 earnings growth around 13% and wide dispersion in forecasts.

10:41 USD/CAD Price Forecast: Snaps four-day losing streak after attracting bids near 20-day EMA The USD/CAD pair rebounds to near 1.3833 from the two-week low of 1.3805 on Friday after snapping a four-day losing streak.

10:36 GBP/JPY advances to fresh two-month high, eyes 214.00 as Middle East risks hit JPY The GBP/JPY cross trades with a positive bias for the fifth consecutive day and hits a fresh one-month high, around the 133.85 area, during the early European session on Friday.

10:32 Brent: Supported near 96 as Hormuz traffic stalls – Danske Bank Danske Research Team highlights that Brent crude is trading around USD 96 per barrel after sharp intraday swings tied to Middle East headlines.

10:06 CAD: Jobs data and BoC stance guide Loonie – ING ING’s Francesco Pesole points to Canada’s March labour report as key for Bank of Canada (BoC) expectations, stressing that the unemployment rate matters more than volatile monthly payrolls.

10:00 Austria Industrial Production (YoY) increased to 1.1% in February from previous 0.3% Austria Industrial Production (YoY) increased to 1.1% in February from previous 0.3%

09:56 DXY: Limited haven response to Oil shock – DBS Philip Wee at DBS Group Research highlights that despite Brent crude trading in a USD 100–120 range in Q1 2026, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has stayed within its established 96–101 band.

09:48 Forex Today: Market volatility eases as focus shifts to US inflation data Here is what you need to know on Friday, April 10:

09:35 Asia FX: Ceasefire bounce faces oil and Fed headwinds – MUFG MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Lloyd Chan argues that Asia FX gains on ceasefire hopes are running ahead of fundamentals, as Oil retains a structural floor and US yields stay elevated.

09:30 NZD/USD Price Forecast: Recovery hits pause around 0.5870 ahead of US-Iran talks The NZD/USD pair corrects after a four-day winning streak, trading 0.25% lower to near 0.5845 during the early European trading session on Friday.

09:27 EUR/GBP edges up above 0.8700 on shaky markets The Euro (EUR) holds moderate gains against the British Pound (GBP) on Friday.

09:27 Equities: Cyclical rally extends as volatility eases – Danske Bank Danske Research Team reports that global equities extended gains, led by US markets, with cyclical sectors outperforming while defensive and low-volatility names lag.

09:14 USD: Oil shock, inflation risks and Fed path – Commerzbank Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur argues that FX markets will increasingly shift focus from Gulf tensions to the impact of higher Oil prices on United States (US) inflation and the US Dollar (USD).

09:04 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rises to near $76.00 on easing rate hike bets Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its winning streak, trading around $76.00 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Friday.

09:00 Sweden Industrial Production Value (YoY) increased to 7% in February from previous 1.9% Sweden Industrial Production Value (YoY) increased to 7% in February from previous 1.9%

09:00 Sweden Industrial Production Value (MoM) rose from previous -5.7% to 5.1% in February Sweden Industrial Production Value (MoM) rose from previous -5.7% to 5.1% in February

09:00 Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) in line with expectations (2.8%) in March Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) in line with expectations (2.8%) in March

09:00 Germany Consumer Price Index (MoM) in line with forecasts (1.1%) in March Germany Consumer Price Index (MoM) in line with forecasts (1.1%) in March

09:00 Germany Consumer Price Index (YoY) in line with expectations (2.7%) in March Germany Consumer Price Index (YoY) in line with expectations (2.7%) in March

09:00 Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) meets expectations (1.2%) in March Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) meets expectations (1.2%) in March