Forex News Timeline

16:29 USD: Iran-driven swings point to shallow depreciation – OCBC
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong stress that markets are being driven almost entirely by Iran headlines, with Oil and yields reacting to ceasefire developments.

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong stress that markets are being driven almost entirely by Iran headlines, with Oil and yields reacting to ceasefire developments. A credible de-escalation would likely see the US Dollar resume a shallow depreciation trend as lower energy risks support non-US economies, risk assets and cyclical currencies like AUD, NZD and SEK.Geopolitics steering Dollar and risk assets"Markets have whipsawed on every Iran-related headline in recent weeks, with little else driving price action.""Overnight trading was volatile as looming geopolitical deadlines first stoked inflation and oil supply fears, before de-escalation hopes dragged oil prices and front-end yields lower.""Momentum accelerated after President Trump agreed to a two-week Iran ceasefire, conditional on the Strait reopening.""Brent fell below USD100/bbl, S&P 500 futures rallied, and the USD weakened further.""Credible signs of de‑escalation would likely see the USD resume a shallow depreciation trend, as lower energy risks support non‑US economies and global risk assets. FX moves since the Iran conflict began have been shaped by terms‑of‑trade shifts and broader risk sentiment.""In a de‑escalation, lower oil prices and a risk‑on environment should favour AUD, NZD and SEK over oil‑linked CAD and NOK, as well as safe havens CHF and JPY. Our preferred expression is long AUD, supported by domestic economic tailwinds. EM carry trades—BRL, MXN and ZAR—are also likely to re‑emerge if a truce holds."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

16:15 Fed Minutes to offer insights into March hold decision amid hawkish outlook
The Federal Reserve (Fed) will publish its Minutes from the March 18 meeting on Wednesday. The release should be less about the decision itself and more about the officials’ “no rush to cut” narrative.

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50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Minutes of the Fed’s March 17-18 meeting are due on Wednesday.Investors are expected to closely follow details of the latest hawkish hold.Markets see one or no interest rate cut this year. The Federal Reserve (Fed) will publish its Minutes from the March 18 meeting on Wednesday. The release should be less about the decision itself and more about the officials’ “no rush to cut” narrative.Let’s recall that the Fed matched consensus last month, leaving its Fed Funds Target Range (FFTR) unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, although both the statement and the subsequent Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference showed a subtly hawkish tilt.Indeed, economic growth looks healthy; the labour market appears somewhat cooling, albeit slower than many policymakers would prefer; and inflation continues to run hot… hotter, actually. And prospects for inflation are far from rosy. Indeed, allow us to forget about tariffs for a moment. The ongoing surge in crude oil prices in response to the Middle East war and its impact on refined products should catapult the energy component of inflation even further, eventually reinforcing the views of those who advocate a “tighter-for-longer” policy.The updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) showed a higher inflation path into 2026 and a slightly higher longer-run rate, all advocating for a policy stance that may need to stay restrictive for longer than previously assumed.That said, the Minutes should shed some light on how broad that view holds inside the Committee. If we look at the fresh dot plot, they still reveal a meaningful split, with some officials saying there won't be any rate reductions this year and one rate setter even hinting at a potential rate hike in 2027. On this, market participants will be closely watching whether it is a real change in the centre of gravity or simply a few more hawkish opinions.At his usual press conference, Chair Jerome Powell said that the Fed isn't ready to disregard current price pressures without further confirmation of a return to some disinflationary pressure, particularly when it comes to goods costs. Powell also stressed that further tightening is not the basic scenario, implying that policy is in a two-sided but clearly unequal stance, with the bar for staying on hold much higher than the bar for lowering.What to watch in the MinutesThere will probably be three main areas of attention.First, how worried policymakers are about inflation being high, particularly if they regard shocks connected to energy and tariffs as transient or more permanent.Second, how confident people are that the process of disinflation will work. Any phrase that calls into question the disinflation of products or the inflation of services that remain around would support the idea that rates would stay higher for longer.Third, the balance of risks within the Committee. If the Minutes demonstrate that members are much more anxious about inflation than growth, it would back up what Powell said about the imbalance.When will the FOMC Minutes be released, and how could they affect the US Dollar?The FOMC will release the Minutes of the March 17-18 policy meeting at 18:00 GMT on Wednesday. FX takeawayThe Minutes probably won't alter the game for the US Dollar (USD) unless their tone emerges as really surprising. A generally hawkish assessment that confirms patience and a limited desire for cuts should keep US Treasury yields stable and the Greenback propped up.In contrast, the US Dollar would be in danger if there were any signs that more members were worried about the threats to growth or the job environment. If that doesn't happen, the basic assumption is still that the Fed will continue in ’wait-and-see’ mode, and policy will stay tight for longer than the markets would want.All in allThe Minutes should reinforce the idea that the Fed is not just pausing; it is deliberately holding its ground. Unless there is a clear shift towards growth concerns, the message remains unchanged, rates stay higher for longer, and the bar for cuts remains firmly elevated. Economic Indicator FOMC Minutes FOMC stands for The Federal Open Market Committee that organizes 8 meetings in a year and reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. FOMC Minutes are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and are a clear guide to the future US interest rate policy.
Read more. Last release: Wed Feb 18, 2026 19:00 Frequency: Irregular Actual: - Consensus: - Previous: - Source: Federal Reserve Why it matters to traders? Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is usually published three weeks after the day of the policy decision. Investors look for clues regarding the policy outlook in this publication alongside the vote split. A bullish tone is likely to provide a boost to the greenback while a dovish stance is seen as USD-negative. It needs to be noted that the market reaction to FOMC Minutes could be delayed as news outlets don’t have access to the publication before the release, unlike the FOMC’s Policy Statement.
Interest rates FAQs What are interest rates? Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation. How do interest rates impact currencies? Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. How do interest rates influence the price of Gold? Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold. What is the Fed Funds rate? The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.

16:06 Copper: From laggard to potential outperformer – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen notes Copper has turned into a top performer after being one of the weakest metals, pressured by rising LME stocks and mixed supply news.

Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen notes Copper has turned into a top performer after being one of the weakest metals, pressured by rising LME stocks and mixed supply news. Possible stock sales and a Panama mine restart could cap prices near term, but sharply lower Chilean output suggests supply worries may dominate once growth fears ease, supporting higher Copper prices longer term.Short term overhang, longer term supply strain"This morning, copper is one of the top performing metals. This is likely due to the fact that copper had previously been one of the worst performing metals. On the one hand, this can be explained by the fact that the red metal is considered highly cyclical. On the other hand, there were also fundamental reasons for its price weakness: LME stockpiles have risen significantly since mid-January and are now at their highest level since 2018.""At the same time, supply prospects remain mixed. Adding further downward pressure to prices was the news that the government in Panama will soon allow the sale of stockpiles from a mining company whose copper mine was closed in 2023.""Additionally, the government plans to decide in the coming months whether operations at the mine could be resumed. A decision is expected by June.""More significantly, the mining production in Chile, the world’s top producer, is struggling. In February, monthly production fell to its lowest level in 10 years.""This suggests that, once current economic concerns subside, supply worries are likely to take over again in the longer term, pushing prices further upward."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

15:57 Iran's IRGC: Will manage Strait of Hormuz proactively
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) stated on Wednesday that Iran will manage the Strait of Hormuz proactively and control it intelligently, while warning of a stronger response to any renewed attacks from the United States (US) or Israel, per Reuters.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) stated on Wednesday that Iran will manage the Strait of Hormuz proactively and control it intelligently, while warning of a stronger response to any renewed attacks from the United States (US) or Israel, per Reuters.Additionally, the IRGC noted that they will continue to support the resistance fronts in Lebanon, Palestine, Yemen and Iraq.Market reactionThis headline doesn't seem to be having a noticeable impact on market sentiment. At the time of press, the US Dollar (USD) Index was down nearly 1% on the day at 98.55.

15:41 RBNZ: Hold at 2.25% with tightening bias – BNY
BNY's Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage at notes that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 2.25% as the Middle East conflict altered the outlook, lifting near‑term inflation risks while weighing on growth.

BNY's Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage at notes that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 2.25% as the Middle East conflict altered the outlook, lifting near‑term inflation risks while weighing on growth. The bank expects weak domestic demand and spare capacity to limit pass‑through but signals readiness to hike if medium‑term inflation expectations or core pressures rise.Policy on hold but hike discussed"New Zealand’s central bank held its Official Cash Rate at 2.25%, citing a materially changed outlook following disruptions from the Middle East conflict, which has raised near-term inflation expectations while weakening economic recovery prospects.""Despite these risks, weak domestic demand and spare capacity are expected to limit pass-through.""The committee judged that holding rates balances the risk of entrenched inflation against unnecessarily constraining growth, while signaling readiness to tighten policy if medium-term inflation expectations rise or core inflation and wage growth fail to remain contained.""RBNZ keeps rates on hold at 2.25% but notes a hike was discussed.""The role of central bank policy will re-emerge as a key risk."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

15:35 USD/BRL: Targets 5.55 by end-2026 – Rabobank
Rabobank economists Mauricio Une and Renan Alves note that the Dollar (USD) closed last week at 5.1573, with the Brazilian Real (BRL) appreciating 1.6% over the week, ranking among the top emerging-market performers.

Rabobank economists Mauricio Une and Renan Alves note that the Dollar (USD) closed last week at 5.1573, with the Brazilian Real (BRL) appreciating 1.6% over the week, ranking among the top emerging-market performers. Despite a still-wide interest-rate differential and a softer Dollar globally, they maintain a forecast for USD/BRL at 5.55 by end-2026, highlighting persistent geopolitical and fiscal uncertainties.Real strength seen as temporary"The dollar closed last week at 5.1573, implying a 1.6% appreciation of the real against the US dollar over the week (the third-best weekly performance across a basket of 24 emerging-market currencies). Even so, despite the still-wide interest-rate differential and a softer dollar globally, we continue to see USD/BRL at BRL5.55 at end-2026.""Our view: geopolitical risks continue to intensify, centered on the Strait of Hormuz. The macro consequences of higher oil prices remain uncertain and tariff uncertainty still clouds global trade, against the backdrop of heightened fiscal uncertainty in Brazil’s election year.""Domestically, industrial activity began the year showing tentative signs of recovery; the labour market remained robust; and February’s fiscal outturn was negative, but did not materially alter the view of a fiscal framework that is adjusting only gradually.""Externally, the US President’s speech dashed hopes of de-escalation: while he pledged to scale back operations in Iran gradually, he also issued fresh threats, reigniting fears of escalation, prompting an Iranian response and pushing oil prices higher."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

15:21 Gold climbs as US-Iran ceasefire weighs on US Dollar
Gold (XAU/USD) climbs toward three-week highs on Wednesday after the United States and Iran reached a temporary two-week ceasefire agreement, offering relief to markets following days of escalating tensions.

15:06 Oil: Prices slump below $100 on ceasefire – ING
ING’s commodities team of Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson report that Oil prices have dropped sharply, with Brent and WTI falling well below $100 as a US–Iran two‑week ceasefire eases supply disruption fears.

ING’s commodities team of Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson report that Oil prices have dropped sharply, with Brent and WTI falling well below $100 as a US–Iran two‑week ceasefire eases supply disruption fears. They highlight the role of the Strait of Hormuz reopening, weaker refined products, bearish US inventory data, and sharply reduced OPEC output in shaping the near‑term outlook.Ceasefire and Hormuz drive sharp selloff"OPEC supply fell sharply in March, according to preliminary Bloomberg survey data, with production down by around 7.6mb/d month‑on‑month to a multi‑decade low of 22.1mb/d, reflecting war‑related disruptions and curtailed exports through the Strait of Hormuz.""Iraq posted the largest decline, with output falling by 2.8mb/d to 1.6mb/d. Saudi Arabia’s production dropped by 2.1mb/d to 8.4mb/d, while UAE output fell by 1.4mb/d to 2.2mb/d, partly cushioned by pipeline routes bypassing the strait. Reopening the Strait of Hormuz could allow some lost production to return in the coming weeks, though a full normalisation will be gradual.""Further price direction will hinge on whether talks translate into a durable agreement and a sustained normalisation of flows through the strait, with volatility likely to persist during negotiations later this week.""US inventory data added to the bearish tone. The API reported a 3.7mb build in US crude stocks last week, well above expectations for a 0.78mb increase. In contrast, refined product balances were more supportive, with gasoline and distillate inventories falling by 4.0mb and 0.6mb, respectively. The EIA inventory report is due later today."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

15:02 USD: Relief-driven downside potential – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that the US-Iran ceasefire has pushed financial markets into relief mode, with Brent, equities and bonds reacting positively and the Dollar falling sharply.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that the US-Iran ceasefire has pushed financial markets into relief mode, with Brent, equities and bonds reacting positively and the Dollar falling sharply. He argues that, as long as ceasefire talks hold, the Dollar can move lower toward levels implied by US-G6 rate differentials, while attention turns to the March FOMC minutes for guidance on future Fed policy.Dollar weakens as risk sentiment improves"Financial markets are leaning hard into relief mode. Brent crude oil prices slumped by roughly 16% while global equities and bonds are up sharply. USD plunged across the board with pro-cyclical currencies outperforming.""Provided the ceasefire talks don’t break down, USD has room to adjust lower in line with the level implied by US-G6 rate differentials.""The FOMC March 17-18 meeting minutes take the spotlight today (7:00pm London, 2:00pm New York). The minutes will shed more light on how high or low the hurdle is for a rate hike."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

15:01 Mexico Consumer Confidence dipped from previous 44.5 to 44.1 in March
Mexico Consumer Confidence dipped from previous 44.5 to 44.1 in March

15:00 Mexico Consumer Confidence s.a: 44.1 (March) vs previous 44.4
Mexico Consumer Confidence s.a: 44.1 (March) vs previous 44.4

14:54 UK: PMI inflation surge clouds outlook – MUFG
MUFG’s Head of Research Derek Halpenny underlines that United Kingdom (UK) PMI Services and Composite data show a larger downturn than in Europe, with a record jump in input prices driven by energy concerns.

MUFG’s Head of Research Derek Halpenny underlines that United Kingdom (UK) PMI Services and Composite data show a larger downturn than in Europe, with a record jump in input prices driven by energy concerns. The Food & Drink Federation now sees year-end food inflation at 9–10%, and Halpenny warns that even with a ceasefire, inflation risks remain elevated and a Bank of England (BoE) rate hike cannot be ruled out.PMI and food inflation keep BoE on edge"The PMI Service data was released yesterday and the decline recorded was certainly larger than seen in Europe – the final estimate was 0.7ppt below the initial estimate with inflationary risks clearly a key driver in the worsening business sentiment.""The PMI Composite Input Price index surged by a record 6.7ppts, surpassing the previous record following the plunge of the pound after the Brexit referendum result in 2016 and hence a larger jump than during the global inflation shock following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.""Last week, the UK’s Food & Drink Federation updated its inflation forecasts and now expects a year-end food inflation rate of between 9%-10%.""That forecast assumption does highlight the potential fallout going forward even under a circumstances of a ceasefire lasting.""The forecasts show that the damage has been done to a degree and while a ceasefire is undoubtedly good news, the inflation risks have not fallen away entirely and a rate hike therefore cannot be immediately ruled out."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

14:44 NZD/USD rallies to near 0.5850 amid risk-on mood, RBNZ’s hawkish remarks
The NZD/USD pair is up 1.6% to near 0.5830 in the European trading session on Wednesday.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}NZD/USD surges to near 0.5830 as the New Zealand Dollar outperforms due to multiple tailwinds.RBNZ Governor Breman’s hawkish remarks and upbeat market sentiment have strengthened the Kiwi dollar.US President Trump suspends scheduled attacks on Iran for two weeks.The NZD/USD pair is up 1.6% to near 0.5830 in the European trading session on Wednesday. The Kiwi pair strengthens as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) outperforms its peers due to upbeat risk-on sentiment and hawkish remarks from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) in the monetary policy announcement earlier in the day. New Zealand Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.88% -1.22% -0.81% -0.16% -1.02% -1.68% -1.16% EUR 0.88% -0.35% 0.06% 0.72% -0.14% -0.82% -0.30% GBP 1.22% 0.35% 0.40% 1.08% 0.23% -0.44% 0.05% JPY 0.81% -0.06% -0.40% 0.66% -0.18% -0.84% -0.35% CAD 0.16% -0.72% -1.08% -0.66% -0.84% -1.48% -1.01% AUD 1.02% 0.14% -0.23% 0.18% 0.84% -0.66% -0.18% NZD 1.68% 0.82% 0.44% 0.84% 1.48% 0.66% 0.49% CHF 1.16% 0.30% -0.05% 0.35% 1.01% 0.18% -0.49% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote). Market sentiment turns risk-on as the United States (US) and Iran have agreed on a two-week ceasefire. Earlier in the day, US President Donald Trump announced, through a post on Truth.Social, that he has suspended planned attacks on Iranian power plants and bridges, as Tehran has agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.S&P 500 futures trade 2.75% higher to near 6,800 in the European trade, reflecting strong investors’ risk appetite. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is down 0.85% to near 98.70.In response, Iran has also delivered a 10-point proposal deal to the US, which would be started discussing on April 10 in Islamabad.On the monetary front, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) left its Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 2.25%, as expected. RBNZ Governor Anna Breman stated in the press conference that policymakers discussed hiking interest rates, but there were no strong advocates for tightening as of now. Breman added, “Neutral rate is a range with a midpoint at 3.0%,” which indicates that interest rate hikes in the near term are highly likely.In the US, traders pare bets supporting interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year, as a significant decline in oil prices, following the US-Iran temporary truce, has de-escalated fears of persistently higher inflationary pressures.According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders have priced out the possibility of the Fed delivering an interest rate hike this year, a sharp turnaround from at least one hike priced in after the war started on February 28. RBNZ FAQs What is the Reserve Bank of New Zealand? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is the country’s central bank. Its economic objectives are achieving and maintaining price stability – achieved when inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), falls within the band of between 1% and 3% – and supporting maximum sustainable employment. How does the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s monetary policy influence the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decides the appropriate level of the Official Cash Rate (OCR) according to its objectives. When inflation is above target, the bank will attempt to tame it by raising its key OCR, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money and thus cooling the economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. Why does the Reserve Bank of New Zealand care about employment? Employment is important for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) because a tight labor market can fuel inflation. The RBNZ’s goal of “maximum sustainable employment” is defined as the highest use of labor resources that can be sustained over time without creating an acceleration in inflation. “When employment is at its maximum sustainable level, there will be low and stable inflation. However, if employment is above the maximum sustainable level for too long, it will eventually cause prices to rise more and more quickly, requiring the MPC to raise interest rates to keep inflation under control,” the bank says. What is Quantitative Easing (QE)? In extreme situations, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) can enact a monetary policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the RBNZ prints local currency and uses it to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions with the aim to increase the domestic money supply and spur economic activity. QE usually results in a weaker New Zealand Dollar (NZD). QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objectives of the central bank. The RBNZ used it during the Covid-19 pandemic.

14:39 EUR: Supported with firmer data and ceasefire – BNY
BNY's Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage notes Eurozone producer prices fell on energy weakness while ex‑energy pressures stayed positive, and retail sales showed modest annual growth despite monthly softness.

BNY's Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage notes Eurozone producer prices fell on energy weakness while ex‑energy pressures stayed positive, and retail sales showed modest annual growth despite monthly softness. German manufacturing orders and services turnover improved, while French trade and current account balances deteriorated. He links these data to a Euro rebound and lower core bond yields after the ceasefire.Mixed data as Euro firms post ceasefire"Eurozone’s February industrial producer prices fell 0.7% m/m and 3.0% y/y, while EU prices declined 0.5% m/m and 2.7% y/y, driven primarily by a sharp drop in energy prices.""On an annual basis, energy prices declined 11.7%, while other categories recorded moderate increases, indicating underlying price pressures remain positive outside energy.""Across member states, the largest monthly declines were seen in Spain, Ireland and Portugal, while Bulgaria, Finland and Sweden recorded the strongest annual increases, highlighting continued divergence in producer price dynamics across the region.""Eurozone’s February retail sales volumes declined 0.2% m/m, with the EU down 0.3%, reflecting weaker food sales and broadly flat or slightly negative non-food performance, partly offset by gains in fuel sales.""Germany’s February manufacturing orders rose 0.9% m/m, with stronger underlying momentum as orders excluding large contracts increased 3.5%, driven primarily by gains in the automotive sector (+3.8%) alongside sharp growth in textiles (+45.2%) and metals (+3.7%), partially offset by a steep decline in other transport equipment (-25.9%)."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

14:38 US President Trump: Talking tariff and sanctions relief with Iran
United States (US) President Donald Trump said on Truth Social on Wednesday that the US will work closely with Iran through a "very productive regime change."

United States (US) President Donald Trump said on Truth Social on Wednesday that the US will work closely with Iran through a "very productive regime change.""There will be no enrichment of Uranium, and the United States will, working with Iran, dig up and remove all of the deeply buried (B-2 Bombers) Nuclear “Dust.” It is now, and has been, under very exacting Satellite Surveillance (Space Force!)," Trump added and continued:"Nothing has been touched from the date of attack. We are, and will be, talking tariff and sanctions relief with Iran. Many of the 15 points have already been been agreed to."Market reactionRisk flows continue to dominate the action in financial markets midweek. At the time of press, the S&P 500 Futures were up 2.8% on the day, while Nasdaq Futures were gaining 3.5%.

14:27 Gold: Ceasefire rally driven by yields and rates – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Carsten Fritsch reports that Gold jumped up to 3% to USD 4,855 per ounce after the 14‑day Middle East ceasefire, behaving unlike a classic safe haven. The move is linked to lower Oil prices, reduced inflation risks and softer rate expectations, which have pushed bond yields down.

Commerzbank’s Carsten Fritsch reports that Gold jumped up to 3% to USD 4,855 per ounce after the 14‑day Middle East ceasefire, behaving unlike a classic safe haven. The move is linked to lower Oil prices, reduced inflation risks and softer rate expectations, which have pushed bond yields down. The outlook hinges on whether a lasting peace deal emerges.Yield-driven surge after Middle East truce"The gold price reacted to the news of a 14-day ceasefire in the Middle East with a jump of up to 3% to USD 4,855 per troy ounce. This means that gold is not behaving like a typical safe-haven asset, also in times of de-escalation.""Instead, the sharp fall in oil prices is leading to a easing of inflation risks and, consequently, a downward adjustment in interest rate expectations. In Europe, this is likely to mean fewer interest rate hikes, whilst in the US it could mean earlier rate cuts.""This prospect has led to a fall in bond yields, from which gold, as a non-interest-bearing investment, benefits. Whether this remains the case depends on whether a lasting peace settlement is found in the coming two weeks or whether there is a renewed escalation thereafter.""The Chinese central bank, PBoC, increased its gold reserves in March for the 17th consecutive month. According to the PBoC’s release, gold holdings stood at 74.38 million ounces at the end of March, an increase of 160,000 ounces compared with the previous month.""However, compared with the decline in the Turkish central bank’s gold reserves of around 120 tons in the second half of March – 69 tons alone in the last week of March – these amounts are almost negligible."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

14:15 NZD: RBNZ tightening bias and earlier hike risk – TD Securities
TD Securities analysts review the latest Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decision, noting the cash rate was held at 2.25% while inflation forecasts were revised sharply higher for Q1 and Q2.

TD Securities analysts review the latest Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decision, noting the cash rate was held at 2.25% while inflation forecasts were revised sharply higher for Q1 and Q2. The Bank’s communication reaffirmed a tightening bias, with discussion of a pre-emptive hike and risks that the hiking cycle could start earlier than TD’s current February next-year call.Higher inflation and pre-emptive hike discussion"The RBNZ kept the cash rate on hold at 2.25% as expected.""Today's release revealed the Bank now expects headline inflation to print at 3% y/y for Q1 and 4.2% y/y in Q2 (assuming crude <$100), the print for Q2 well off the 2.7% Feb MPS forecast.""Our read of today's release if anything reaffirms the Bank's bias to tighten.""The Board did discuss a pre-emptive hike but held off given "…this could cause unnecessary volatility in output and employment if the conflict was resolved in the near term or if the economic outlook weakens by more than currently expected".""The Bank's Feb MPS OCR forecast implied a cash rate hike by the end of this year but given the points highlighted above there is a risk the RBNZ acts earlier, and hence to our call for the hike cycle to begin in Feb next year."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

14:00 AUD/USD eases below 0.7050 as the market digests the ceasefire in Iran
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is trading higher against the US Dollar (USD) for the third consecutive day on Wednesday, boosted by investors’ optimism about the ceasefire in Iran.

14:00 United States MBA Mortgage Applications up to -0.8% in April 3 from previous -10.4%
United States MBA Mortgage Applications up to -0.8% in April 3 from previous -10.4%

13:12 USD/CHF Price Forecast: Bearish momentum gains traction below 0.7900
The US Dollar (USD) accelerated its reversal against the Swiss Franc (CHF) on Wednesday, as investors pared back US Dollar long positions following the announcement of a ceasefire in Iran.

12:57 EUR: Peace breather and ECB expectations support – Commerzbank
Commerzbank notes that the Dollar is selling off as risk sentiment improves, with the Euro rising close to 1.17 against the Dollar following the ceasefire news.

Commerzbank notes that the Dollar is selling off as risk sentiment improves, with the Euro rising close to 1.17 against the Dollar following the ceasefire news. The bank highlights that an extended ceasefire would make an April ECB rate hike unlikely and sees the €STR curve’s previously aggressive pricing as a backdrop for bullish steepening in Euro rates.Dollar weakness lifts single currency"Brent slides to $95, US Treasuries bull-steepen with 10y yields falling 6bp. Asian equities and e-minis rally with Stoxx future up some 5%. Dollar sells off with EUR rising close to $1.17.""If the ceasefire gets extended, an ECB rate hike in April, and beyond, becomes unlikely. The €STR curve was pricing some 80bp of rate hikes yesterday, about the most since the war began, which should give rise to strong bullish steepening.""Just before the Easter break, the ECB published a blog post with insights from their Bank Treasurer Survey on preferred reserve levels and their proprietary Securities Financing Transactions Data.""While transparency remains patchy, the findings support our view that reserve scarcity is still a long way off. The ECB projects that, by the end of this year, banks accounting for 50% of total assets will reach their preferred reserve level, up from 26% 'now' (which we understand to refer to last October). Unfortunately, the ECB does not disclose the aggregate preferred reserve level, akin to the Preferred Minimum Range of Reserves (PMRR) revealed by the BoE.""While this is probably towards the lower (or later) end of the scale, we feel affirmed in our view that the point at which reserve scarcity will cause upward pressure on rates and lead to banks returning to ECB operations on a larger scale is unlikely to be reached before next year.""While repo markets remain calm for now, by the end of the year we believe this will become another argument for cheaper Schatz swap spreads."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

12:37 Gold: Ceasefire lifts prices as traders watch Hormuz – DBS
DBS Group Research’s Eugene Leow notes that Gold surged over 2% to above USD4800 after a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran reduced immediate escalation risks.

DBS Group Research’s Eugene Leow notes that Gold surged over 2% to above USD4800 after a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran reduced immediate escalation risks. He highlights that the sustainability of this truce and the recovery of shipping volumes through the Strait of Hormuz will guide Gold’s next move, while structural demand, including continued PBoC buying, remains supportive.Ceasefire reprices risk and supports bullion"Gold rallied following this morning's announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran.""Looking ahead, the sustainability of this temporary truce will likely dictate the next directional move for gold.""If vessel throughput normalises to a credible rate during this two-week window, it will establish a favorable foundation for a more definitive, long-term ceasefire that should continue to support gold's upward trajectory.""Beyond these geopolitical swings, gold's structural demand remains robust. The PBoC extended its purchasing streak to a 17th consecutive month in March, adding 160,000 troy ounces to its reserves."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

12:35 Germany 10-y Bond Auction increased to 2.92% from previous 2.89%
Germany 10-y Bond Auction increased to 2.92% from previous 2.89%

12:34 EUR/GBP is testing support at 0.8700 despite risk-on markets
The Euro (EUR) trades lower against the British Pound (GBP) for the third consecutive day on Wednesday, with bears testing support at 0.8700 at the time of writing. The Pound fares better than the common currency amid the positive market sentiment triggered by the ceasefire in Iran.

12:31 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $76.91 per troy ounce, up 5.38% from the $72.98 it cost on Tuesday.

12:30 EUR/USD Price Forecast: Posts fresh monthly high around 1.1700
The EUR/USD pair trades 0.75% higher to near 1.1700 during the European trading session on Wednesday. The major currency pair strengthens as the US Dollar (USD) underperforms amid an upbeat market mood.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD rallies to near 1.1700 as the US Dollar’s safe-haven demand diminishes.US President Trump suspends scheduled attacks on Iran as it agrees to reopen the Hormuz.Eurozone Retail Sales declines 0.2% MoM in February, in line with expectations.The EUR/USD pair trades 0.75% higher to near 1.1700 during the European trading session on Wednesday. The major currency pair strengthens as the US Dollar (USD) underperforms amid an upbeat market mood. US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.75% -1.04% -0.78% -0.16% -0.97% -1.51% -1.16% EUR 0.75% -0.30% -0.04% 0.60% -0.23% -0.80% -0.43% GBP 1.04% 0.30% 0.26% 0.89% 0.09% -0.48% -0.13% JPY 0.78% 0.04% -0.26% 0.61% -0.17% -0.73% -0.39% CAD 0.16% -0.60% -0.89% -0.61% -0.78% -1.33% -1.00% AUD 0.97% 0.23% -0.09% 0.17% 0.78% -0.56% -0.23% NZD 1.51% 0.80% 0.48% 0.73% 1.33% 0.56% 0.34% CHF 1.16% 0.43% 0.13% 0.39% 1.00% 0.23% -0.34% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). In the European trade, S&P 500 futures are up over 2.5% to near 6,780, reflecting a strong risk appetite of investors. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.7% lower to near 98.80.Market sentiment turns favorable for risk-sensitive assets on a temporary ceasefire between the United States and Iran. US President Donald Trump announced that he has suspended planned attacks on Iranian civilian infrastructure as Tehran has agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.On the macro front, Eurozone Retail Sales data contracts 0.2% Month-on-Month (MoM) in February, faster than the previous reading of 0.1%.Going forward, investors will focus on negotiations between the US and Iran over the 10-point proposal shared by Tehran for the complete ceasefire.EUR/USD technical analysisEUR/USD trades sharply higher at around 1.1700 during the press time. The near-term bias is bullish as price extends above the descending support trend line of the Symmetrical Triangle formation from 1.1403 and holds over the 200-day exponential moving average clustered around 1.1560, indicating buyers control the pullbacks for now. The latest RSI reading at 57 shows positive momentum without overbought conditions, reinforcing the upside tilt after the recovery from the mid-1.14s.Initial support emerges at the trend-line area near 1.1600, with the 200-day EMA just beneath reinforcing this zone; a break below would expose the 1.1550 region as the next downside level. On the topside, the intraday high of 1.1708 is the immediate resistance, followed by the March high at around 1.1800, where a sustained break would confirm continuation of the nascent upswing.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

12:24 NZD/USD: Hawkish RBNZ supports upside – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad highlights that NZD/USD has surged over 2% on improved risk sentiment and a hawkish hold from the RBNZ.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad highlights that NZD/USD has surged over 2% on improved risk sentiment and a hawkish hold from the RBNZ. The central bank kept the OCR at 2.25% but signalled that temporary inflation would allow gradual normalization, while warning that decisive hikes would be needed if second-round inflation effects or higher medium-term expectations emerge, suggesting markets may be overpricing the pace of tightening.RBNZ stance underpins New Zealand Dollar"NZD/USD surged by over 2% on a solid rebound in risk sentiment. The RBNZ delivered a hawkish hold.""The RBNZ noted that if the increase in near-term inflation is temporary, the OCR can be normalized gradually to more neutral levels (RBNZ estimated neutral range is between 2.3% and 4.1%).""The swaps curve has more than fully priced in a 25bps OCR increase to 2.50% by September and a total of 100bps of hikes over the next twelve months. The latest US-Iran ceasefire agreement reduces the risk of a more persist energy shock and argues for a more gradual RBNZ rate hike cycle than markets imply."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

12:16 EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Trades near 185.00 after pulling back from upper channel boundary
EUR/JPY edges lower after two days of gains, trading around 185.00 during the European hours on Wednesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests the currency cross is moving upwards within the ascending channel pattern, indicating bullish bias.

12:06 India: RBI seen on prolonged hold – UOB
UOB’s Jester Koh notes that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept the policy repo rate at 5.25% in April 2026 and retained a neutral stance.

UOB’s Jester Koh notes that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept the policy repo rate at 5.25% in April 2026 and retained a neutral stance. He highlights RBI’s new Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) projections, flags growth downside and inflation upside risks, and expects the policy repo rate to remain unchanged at 5.25% through 2026 as policy flexibility is preserved.RBI holds steady and keeps options open"At its 8 Apr 2026 MPC meeting, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) unanimously voted to keep the policy repo rate unchanged at 5.25%, in line with expectations of all 34 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg (including UOB). Accordingly, the standing deposit facility (SDF) and marginal standing facility (MSF) rates were also left unchanged at 5.00% and 5.50%, respectively. The MPC continued to maintain a neutral monetary policy stance.""On growth, based on the new GDP series (base year 2022-23), the RBI projects growth to moderate to 6.9% in FY27 (1Q: 6.8%, 2Q: 6.7%, 3Q: 7.0%, 4Q: 7.2%), down from 7.6% in FY26 based on the second advance estimates.""On inflation, the RBI released its FY27 CPI projections based on the new CPI series (2024=100) and expects inflation to accelerate to 4.6% (Feb FY26 MPC forecast: 2.1%). Upside risks stem from “persistently elevated energy prices due to the West Asia conflict and possible El Niño conditions, which could adversely affect the southwest monsoon”.""Nevertheless, the RBI noted that underlying inflationary pressures (beyond food and energy) are expected to remain contained. Our FY27 inflation projection is slightly higher than the RBI’s at 4.8%, driven by low base effects and potential tightening in food supply, as fertilizer shortages could weigh on crop yields during the Zaid and Kharif sowing seasons.""Given uncertainty over the extent of the drag on growth and the upside risks to inflation, the RBI is likely to preserve policy flexibility, as reinforced by its neutral monetary policy stance which enables the central bank “to respond judiciously to incoming information”. We maintain our forecast that the RBI will keep the policy repo rate unchanged at 5.25% through 2026."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

12:05 Eurozone Retail Sales decline 0.2% MoM in February, as expected
Eurozone Retail Sales, a key measure of consumer spending, decline by 0.2% month-on-month (MoM) in February, as expected, slower than 0.1% in January.

12:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) above expectations (1.6%) in February: Actual (1.7%)
Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) above expectations (1.6%) in February: Actual (1.7%)

12:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index (YoY) in line with expectations (-3%) in February
Eurozone Producer Price Index (YoY) in line with expectations (-3%) in February

12:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) meets expectations (-0.2%) in February
Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) meets expectations (-0.2%) in February

12:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index (MoM) meets forecasts (-0.7%) in February
Eurozone Producer Price Index (MoM) meets forecasts (-0.7%) in February

11:35 DXY: Retreat extends but floor holds – ING
ING’s Chris Turner notes that risk assets are rebounding after the Iran ceasefire, with higher equities, a bullish steepening in yield curves and broad currency gains against the US Dollar (USD).

ING’s Chris Turner notes that risk assets are rebounding after the Iran ceasefire, with higher equities, a bullish steepening in yield curves and broad currency gains against the US Dollar (USD). He argues March’s Dollar strength is unlikely to fully unwind, even as US Dollar Index (DXY) has gapped lower and could fall toward 98.50, with Fed cuts only modestly priced for late 2026.DXY slide seen limited near 98"Expect now a close monitoring of traffic flow through the Strait, where a significant pick-up in volume would weigh further on oil prices and reverse the stagflationary investment trends witnessed in markets over the last month. These trends had been dominated by the dramatic bearish flattening of yield curves, equity weakness and a stronger dollar.""The US data calendar is relatively light today, with only the FOMC minutes released tonight. On the subject of the Federal Reserve, Philip Jefferson was the latest member to say that monetary policy is 'well-positioned' for the current environment. Markets have now started to price back in Fed rate cuts towards the end of this year (-14bp priced for December), although pricing could prove quite sticky around unchanged rates.""DXY rallied just over 3% through March. It has gapped lower today, and a further sell-off to 98.50 looks possible. However, there remains too much uncertainty to expect a full unwind of the March rally, and it is therefore premature to call for a break under 98.00."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global Construction PMI above forecasts (43.9) in March: Actual (45.6)
United Kingdom S&P Global Construction PMI above forecasts (43.9) in March: Actual (45.6)

11:27 WTI Crude Oil steadies near $90.00 after a ceasefire-led sell-off
Crude prices tumbled on Wednesday after the announcement of a two-week ceasefire in the Iran war. The price of the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) barrel plunged more than 15% from Tuesday’s highs above $106.00 to consolidate around $90.00 at the time of writing.

11:15 Dow Jones futures rise as US-Iran ceasefire lifts market sentiment
Dow Jones futures rise 2.32% to near 47,900 during European hours on Wednesday, ahead of the regular United States (US) open. Meanwhile, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures also gain 2.49% and 3.19% to near 6,820 and 25,150, respectively, at the time of writing.

11:15 NZD/USD: RBNZ hawkish nuance but Kiwi capped – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur reports that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) left rates unchanged, but Governor Breman’s comments about discussing a hike were read as slightly hawkish, supporting the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against the US Dollar (USD).

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur reports that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) left rates unchanged, but Governor Breman’s comments about discussing a hike were read as slightly hawkish, supporting the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against the US Dollar (USD). However, he stresses downside economic risks, sees nearly three hikes priced by year-end as excessive, and does not expect sustained tailwind for the Kiwi.RBNZ holds as markets price hikes"As expected, the RBNZ left its key interest rate unchanged today.""However, foreign exchange markets appeared to interpret the comments as somewhat more hawkish than initially anticipated.""As of today, the futures market is pricing in nearly three interest rate hikes by year-end.""While developments in the Gulf region are overshadowing much of the market activity this morning, the kiwi still seems to be gaining ground against the US dollar more strongly than other currencies.""The communiqué from the meeting also mentions that there is a very real risk that the economy could suffer a significant setback, and that this alone would reduce the medium-term inflationary effects."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

11:03 USD/JPY Price Forecast: Symmetrical Triangle breakdown below 159.00 warrants more downside
The USD/JPY pair trades 0.9% lower to near 158.20 during the European trading session on Wednesday. The pair faces intense selling pressure as the US Dollar (USD) underperforms across the board, following the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran.

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The pair faces intense selling pressure as the US Dollar (USD) underperforms across the board, following the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran. US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.84% -0.96% -0.89% -0.28% -1.22% -1.62% -1.27% EUR 0.84% -0.14% -0.06% 0.55% -0.36% -0.82% -0.45% GBP 0.96% 0.14% 0.06% 0.70% -0.21% -0.66% -0.31% JPY 0.89% 0.06% -0.06% 0.61% -0.30% -0.72% -0.38% CAD 0.28% -0.55% -0.70% -0.61% -0.91% -1.32% -0.99% AUD 1.22% 0.36% 0.21% 0.30% 0.91% -0.42% -0.09% NZD 1.62% 0.82% 0.66% 0.72% 1.32% 0.42% 0.34% CHF 1.27% 0.45% 0.31% 0.38% 0.99% 0.09% -0.34% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is down 0.75% to near 98.75.Earlier in the day, US President Donald Trump announced that he had suspended planned attacks on Iranian civilian infrastructure for two weeks, as Tehran agreed to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a passage to almost 20% of global energy supply.Meanwhile, disappeared hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) bets due to anchoring global inflation expectations, following a temporary truce between the US and Iran, have also weighed on the US Dollar.According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders have priced out hopes of an interest rate hike this year, a sharp turnaround from expectations of two hikes built after the war started.USD/JPY technical analysisUSD/JPY plummets to near 158.20 during the day. The near-term trend of the pair has turned bearish, following a breakdown of the Symmetrical Triangle formation on a four-hour timeframe. Price now holds below the broken ascending support line from 157.46, reinforcing the loss of upside structure, while the 200-period EMA near 158.40 caps intraday rebounds as dynamic resistance. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to 28, entering oversold territory and signaling strong bearish momentum, though stretched conditions could slow immediate downside extension.Initial resistance emerges at the confluence of the 200-period EMA and former support trend-line area around 158.40, with the descending trend line adding another barrier closer to 159.00. A recovery through 159.00 would open 159.60 as the next resistance band and neutralize the current downside pressure. On the downside, minor support is seen at 157.50, and a clear break below this would confirm a deeper bearish phase toward 157.00. Oversold RSI suggests that any bounce into 158.40–159.00 is likely to be treated as a selling area while price holds below the descending trend line.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Risk sentiment FAQs What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets? In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.

10:48 USD: Market reprieve and Dollar risks – Rabobank
Rabobank strategists Michael Every and Bas van Geffen note that a temporary ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran has sharply reduced immediate risk premia, with Brent lower and equities higher. However, they stress this is only a short truce, leaving at least two weeks of uncertainty.

Rabobank strategists Michael Every and Bas van Geffen note that a temporary ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran has sharply reduced immediate risk premia, with Brent lower and equities higher. However, they stress this is only a short truce, leaving at least two weeks of uncertainty. They highlight scenarios ranging from a clear US win to a damaging outcome for the Dollar and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) assets.Ceasefire shifts but not ends risks"Markets are trading this as a TACO [Trump Always Chickens Out] Tuesday. Brent futures are down 14% at the time of writing, Asian equity markets rallied, and futures pricing suggests the same will happen when European and American markets open. And bets of near-term rate hikes evaporated as the truce ends days before major central banks next reconvene to recalibrate their policy stance.""Yet, this short-term truce is not a peace deal, and is anyone willing to sail through the Strait as long as the conflict isn’t fully resolved? So, today’s reprieve will be followed by at least two weeks of extended uncertainty – and possibly longer, if both sides agree to extend the negotiations.""So, the fog of war is still in place even if the fighting might have stopped for now. Nobody knows what will happen next, but the possible spectrum is clear:- Best case: the war is over –though the related Israel-Hezbollah one in Lebanon is apparently not included, according to PM Netanyahu– and other related global tensions could even ease in tandem. (Because the US wins as Iran and others blink.) - Good case: the war is over. (Because Iran blinked.) - ‘Good’ case: the war is over. (Because Trump blinked. The knock-on effects aren’t something markets want to consider now, but they aren’t pretty for the dollar or GCC and western assets.)- OK case: the war is paused and Hormuz reopens briefly to give the world economy some breathing room. (Because Iran and US blinked.) - Worst case: the ceasefire collapses and the war both continues and escalates to try to get us back to one side backing down - watch US military logistics closely.""In terms of our macro and market scenarios, the latest news leans towards our base case of fighting being over by mid-April with a slow Hormuz reopening – and on US terms. Obviously, if this pause instead leads to more fighting, we move towards our other, more damaging scenarios."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

10:47 GBP/JPY Price Analysis: Pound hits resistance in the 212.80 area
The Pound (GBP) maintains its near.-term nullish bias against the Japanese Yen (JPY) intact, although bulls have been halted at the 212.80 area earlier on the day.

10:41 USD/CAD Price Forecast: Struggles near mid-1.3800s as bears await break below 200-day EMA
The USD/CAD pair extends its weekly downtrend for the third straight day and dives to a nearly two-week low on Wednesday, though it lacks follow-through selling. Spot prices trade around mid-1.3800s, down nearly 0.30% for the day, amid mixed fundamental cues.

10:13 S&P 500: Futures rebound on Hormuz ceasefire – Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank analysts report a strong recovery in S&P 500 futures after the US–Iran two-week ceasefire announcement and easing war fears. Futures are now less than 2% below pre-strike levels and well above the late-March lows.

Deutsche Bank analysts report a strong recovery in S&P 500 futures after the US–Iran two-week ceasefire announcement and easing war fears. Futures are now less than 2% below pre-strike levels and well above the late-March lows. The report attributes the move to relief over a potential de-escalation path and improved risk sentiment across global equities.Risk assets surge as tensions ease"In turn, risk assets are seeing a sharp rally. S&P 500 futures are up +2.48%, which leaves them less than 2% below the levels on February 27 before the Iran strikes began and +6.8% up from their closing low on March 30.""NASDAQ futures are +3.15%, while those on Euro STOXX 50 are +5.42% higher after a weak session yesterday.""Earlier yesterday, markets had traded cautiously amidst worsening headlines, including Trump’s social media post that a “whole civilization will die tonight” unless “something revolutionarily” happens on Iran’s side, as well as news of increased strikes by the US, Israel and Iran across the Middle East. US markets then saw a recovery late in yesterday’s session as news broke that the US and Iran were considering Pakistan’s ceasefire proposal."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

10:09 Silver Price Forecasts: XAG/USD returns above $77 as the US Dollar tumbles
Silver rallies on risk-on markets and reaches session highs above $77.00.

10:01 Switzerland Unemployment Rate s.a (MoM) remains unchanged at 3% in March
Switzerland Unemployment Rate s.a (MoM) remains unchanged at 3% in March

09:58 Australian Dollar jumps on US–Iran ceasefire, traders await FOMC Minutes
The AUD/USD pair climbs to around 0.7080, the highest since March 20, during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges higher against the Greenback as the ceasefire between the US and Iran triggers a broad risk-on sentiment.

09:56 NZD/USD Price Forecast: Hovers around 0.5850, 50-day EMA due to bullish reversal
NZD/USD gains ground for the third consecutive day, trading around 0.5850 during the early European hours on Wednesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart signals a bullish reversal as the pair rises above the descending channel pattern.

09:51 Oil: Prices slide on fragile ceasefire and flow risks – Danske Bank
Danske Research Team reports that Brent crude fell as low as USD 92 per barrel after the US-Iran ceasefire, with Oil dropping below USD 100 as risk sentiment improved.

Danske Research Team reports that Brent crude fell as low as USD 92 per barrel after the US-Iran ceasefire, with Oil dropping below USD 100 as risk sentiment improved. However, they stress that sustained lower prices depend on a recovery in Oil and gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and warn that the ceasefire deal remains fragile and uncertain.Ceasefire-driven drop faces flow uncertainty"With Trump's deadline fast approaching, the US president announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran.""This provided an imminent relief for markets, with oil prices collapsing below USD100/barrel, US yields falling by more than 10bp across the curve and EUR/USD rallying towards 1.17.""Brent crude fell as low as USD92/bbl on the news, but the drop in prices is contingent on the pre-condition that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz resumes.""For prices to stabilise at lower levels, oil and gas flows through the strait must pick up again, which remains uncertain.""The deal looks fragile, particularly as Iran is allowed to charge fees on ships passing through."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

09:49 GBP/USD Price Forecast: Reclaims two-week high around 1.3445 as sentiment improves
The Pound Sterling surges against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday as the market sentiment turns favorable for riskier assets, is up 1% to near 1.3445 during the early European session.

09:46 France Imports, EUR rose from previous €55.3B to €57.791B in February
France Imports, EUR rose from previous €55.3B to €57.791B in February

09:46 France Exports, EUR declined to €52.013B in February from previous €53.4B
France Exports, EUR declined to €52.013B in February from previous €53.4B

09:46 France Trade Balance EUR below expectations (€-2.3B) in February: Actual (€-5.778B)
France Trade Balance EUR below expectations (€-2.3B) in February: Actual (€-5.778B)

09:45 France Imports, EUR increased to €57.8B in February from previous €55.3B
France Imports, EUR increased to €57.8B in February from previous €55.3B

09:45 France Current Account dipped from previous €2.1B to €-1.8B in February
France Current Account dipped from previous €2.1B to €-1.8B in February

09:45 France Trade Balance EUR came in at €-5.8B below forecasts (€-2.3B) in February
France Trade Balance EUR came in at €-5.8B below forecasts (€-2.3B) in February

09:45 France Exports, EUR down to €52B in February from previous €53.4B
France Exports, EUR down to €52B in February from previous €53.4B

09:41 Forex Today: Risk flows dominate as US and Iran agree to two-week ceasefire
Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, April 8:

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The European economic calendar will feature Producer Price Index (PPI) and Retail Sales data for February. Later in the American session, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will publish the minutes of its March policy meeting. US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.92% -1.10% -0.95% -0.30% -1.40% -1.91% -1.29% EUR 0.92% -0.19% -0.04% 0.62% -0.47% -1.04% -0.38% GBP 1.10% 0.19% 0.15% 0.82% -0.27% -0.82% -0.19% JPY 0.95% 0.04% -0.15% 0.66% -0.41% -0.95% -0.33% CAD 0.30% -0.62% -0.82% -0.66% -1.07% -1.60% -0.99% AUD 1.40% 0.47% 0.27% 0.41% 1.07% -0.55% 0.08% NZD 1.91% 1.04% 0.82% 0.95% 1.60% 0.55% 0.63% CHF 1.29% 0.38% 0.19% 0.33% 0.99% -0.08% -0.63% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). US President Donald Trump announced late Tuesday that he agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran on the condition that Iran opens the Strait of Hormuz during this period. Iran's foreign minister said that Iran's military will coordinate passage of vessels and Iran’s semi-official Tasnim News Agency reported that Iran and Oman are planning to charge transit fees. Negotiations will reportedly start on Friday in Pakistan's Islamabad. Meanwhile, Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office said that the two-week ceasefire does not include Lebanon. Related news US President Donald Trump says 'big day for world peace' as attacks paused Israel’s PM Netanyahu supports Trump’s decision to suspend attacks on Iran Iran confirms US negotiations, says ceasefire hinges on finalising 10-point proposal US stock index surge higher early Wednesday and were last seen rising between 2.5% and 3.5%. In the meantime, the US Dollar (USD) stays under heavy bearish pressure, with the USD Index losing more than 0.5% on the day below 99.00. Finally, crude Oil prices decline sharply, as the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) loses more than 12% below $89.Gold gathers bullish momentum in the European session and trades above $4,800, rising more than 2.5% on a daily basis. EUR/USD rallies midweek and trades near 1.1700, up nearly 0.8% on the day.GBP/USD benefits from the broad-based USD weakness and rises more than 1% on the day above 1.3430.The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announced earlier in the day that it held the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.25% after concluding the April monetary policy meeting. In the post-meeting press conference, RBNZ Governor Anna Breman noted that they have discussed raising the policy rate today but explained that they are not yet seeing rising prices becoming embedded in inflation expectations. NZD/USD gains nearly 2% on the day and trades near 0.5850 in the European morning.USD/JPY trades deep in negative territory at around 158.00, down 1% on the day.AUD/USD gains 1.5% on the day and trades at its highest level since March 20 above 0.7070.USD/CAD declines for the third consecutive day on Wednesday and trades below 1.3850. Risk sentiment FAQs What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets? In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.

09:28 EUR/USD: Dollar slips on Gulf ceasefire – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister notes that the tentative ceasefire between the US and Iran and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz triggered a sharp textbook reaction, with Oil falling and the US Dollar weakening, pushing EUR/USD back towards 1.17.

Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister notes that the tentative ceasefire between the US and Iran and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz triggered a sharp textbook reaction, with Oil falling and the US Dollar weakening, pushing EUR/USD back towards 1.17. He argues that revised ECB and Bank of England rate expectations are secondary for FX, with energy dependence still the key driver.Ceasefire drives Dollar and Oil reaction"As we have emphasised several times in recent weeks, if a ceasefire is agreed and the Strait of Hormuz is opened, the market reaction would likely be textbook: Oil prices plummeted by nearly USD 15 per barrel and the US dollar suffered significant losses - EUR/USD is moving back towards 1.17 this morning.""Central bank expectations are also likely to be revised if the ceasefire proves sustainable and peace negotiations are successful.""For exchange rates, however, pricing in these expectations is unlikely to be all that relevant for now.""Currencies have hardly reacted to the pricing in of these expectations after all, but rather to the respective country’s energy dependence.""If the situation were to escalate again, today's market reactions would likely reverse."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

09:20 EUR/USD nears 1.1700 as markets welcome the ceasefire in Iran
The announcement of a two-week ceasefire in Iran triggered a relief rally during Wednesday’s Asian trading session that sent the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) tumbling against its main peers.

09:07 USD/CHF tumbles below 0.7900 on Trump's ceasefire announcement, FOMC Minutes in focus
The USD/CHF pair slumps to around 0.7890 during the early European session on Wednesday. Reports of a potential two-week ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran drag the US Dollar (USD) lower against the Swiss Franc (CHF).

09:01 Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) declined to 3.5% in February from previous 3.7%
Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) declined to 3.5% in February from previous 3.7%

09:01 United Kingdom Halifax House Prices (MoM) came in at -0.5% below forecasts (0.1%) in March
United Kingdom Halifax House Prices (MoM) came in at -0.5% below forecasts (0.1%) in March

09:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) came in at 0.9% below forecasts (2%) in February
Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) came in at 0.9% below forecasts (2%) in February

08:50 WTI nosedives below $90 as Iran reopens Hormuz for two weeks
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, slide over 11% below $90.00 on Wednesday, as Iran has agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage to 20% of global energy supply, for two weeks in return for a temporary ceasefire with the United States (US).

.fxs-related-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-related-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{text-decoration:none;color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover a{color:#e4871b}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover{text-decoration:none}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-related-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}}The Oil price falls like a house of cards as Iran agrees to reopen the Hormuz for two weeks.US President Trump suspends planned attacks on Iranian civilian infrastructure.Iran wants recognition of its authority on the Strait of Hormuz.West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, slide over 11% below $90.00 on Wednesday, as Iran has agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage to 20% of global energy supply, for two weeks in return for a temporary ceasefire with the United States (US).Oil prices gained over 50% since the war started in the Middle East involving the US, Israel, and Iran on February 28.Earlier in the day, US President Donald Trump announced through a post on Truth.Social, that he has suspended planned attacks on Iranian power plants and bridges, as Tehran has agreed to complete, immediate, and safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz”. Trump also acknowledged that Washington has received a 10-point proposal from Iran, which can be negotiated for a complete ceasefire.According to Iranian officials, both Tehran and Washington will begin negotiations on the 10-point proposal from April 10 in Islamabad. Key demands proposed by Iran are controlled transit through the Hormuz coordinated with Iranian armed forces, ending the war against Iran and allied groups, the withdrawal of US combat forces from all regional bases, lifting all primary and secondary sanctions, payment of full compensation to Iran, and the release of all frozen Iranian assets.Lower oil prices are expected to ease inflation expectations globally, a scenario that would prompt traders to pare bets supporting interest rate hikes by major central banks in the near term. Related news Iran confirms US negotiations, says ceasefire hinges on finalising 10-point proposal Breaking: US President Donald Trump delays bombing for two weeks WTI Price Forecast: Seems vulnerable near $90.50 as technical breakdown comes into play

08:45 US Dollar Index (DXY) Price Forecast: Struggles below 99.00, one-month low amid risk-on
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, attracts heavy selling on Wednesday and plummets to a nearly one-month trough during the Asian session in reaction to the US-Iran ceasefire news.

08:24 USD/INR tumbles on US-Iran two-week ceasefire, RBI leaves Repo Rate unchanged at 5.25%
The Indian Rupee (INR) jumps to a fresh an almost three-week high against the US Dollar (USD) in the opening trade on Wednesday. The USD/INR pair slides to near 92.30 as the US Dollar weakens and global oil prices nosedive, following a temporary ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Indian Rupee nears a three-week high against the US Dollar on the US-Iran temporary ceasefire.Iran delivers a 10-point proposal plan to the US, which includes recognition of Tehran’s authority at Hormuz.The RBI leaves its Repo Rate steady at 5.25%, as expected.The Indian Rupee (INR) jumps to a fresh an almost three-week high against the US Dollar (USD) in the opening trade on Wednesday. The USD/INR pair slides to near 92.30 as the US Dollar weakens and global oil prices nosedive, following a temporary ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran.As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is down 0.55% to near 99.00. WTI Oil price plummets almost 11% to near $90.00.Trump suspends planned attacks on Iran for two weeksEarlier in the day, US President Donald Trump announced, through a post on Truth.Social, that he has suspended planned attacks on Iranian power plants and bridges for two weeks, as it has agreed to a “complete, immediate, and safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz”, a critical gateway to almost 20% of global oil supply. Trump added, “We received a 10-point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate.”Meanwhile, Iran has also acknowledged the Hormuz reopening, and the delivery of the 10-point proposal, which includes controlled transit through the Hormuz coordinated with Iranian armed forces, ending war against Iran and allied groups, the withdrawal of US combat forces from all regional bases, lifting all primary and secondary sanctions, payment of full compensation to Iran and the release of all frozen Iranian assets.The Hormuz reopening has battered the oil price badly, a scenario that is favorable for currencies from economies like India, which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs.However, the continuation of the Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) selling in the Indian stock market is expected to cap the upside in the Indian Rupee. So far in April, FIIs have offloaded their stake worth Rs. 35,121.56 crore.RBI maintains status quoThe Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has kept key interest rates unchanged in the monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, keeping the Repo Rate steady at 5.25%. The Indian central bank was expected to maintain status quo as the war in the Middle East has increased inflation globally.RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra has stated in the monetary policy statement that higher oil prices due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz is likely to impact growth this year. “Elevated crude oil prices could increase imported inflation and widen the current account deficit,” Malhotra said.Technical Analysis: USD/INR stays below 20-day EMAUSD/INR declines to near 92.30 in the opening session on Wednesday. The pair trades below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), shifting the near-term bias to mildly bearish.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to 47, moving below the 50 midline and confirming that sellers have gained control after the overbought readings seen above 70 in late March.Immediate support emerges at 92.00 and then 91.50, where the previous consolidation zone sits. On the topside, initial resistance is now located at 93.00, with stronger resistance at 93.70 ahead of the recent 95.12 peak. As long as price holds below this resistance band while RSI remains under 50, rallies are expected to be capped and vulnerable to renewed selling pressure.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.

08:14 EUR/GBP edges lower to near 0.8700, ECB hawkish stance cushions downside
The EUR/GBP cross declines to near 0.8700 during the early European session on Wednesday. A two-week ceasefire agreement between the United States (US) and Iran has improved global risk sentiment, which typically favors the Pound Sterling (GBP) over the Euro (EUR).

08:06 Canadian Dollar gains as market sentiment improves after US-Iran ceasefire
USD/CAD continues to lose ground for the third successive day, trading around 1.3830 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) declines on decreased safe-haven demand after the United States (US) and Iran agreed on a two-week ceasefire.

08:03 US President Donald Trump says 'big day for world peace' as attacks paused
US President Donald Trump said on a Truth Social post that Tuesday was “a big day for world peace.” Trump added that the US will be “helping with the traffic buildup” in the Strait of Hormuz and that “big money will be made” as Iran begins reconstruction.

07:46 Asian stocks surge on US-Iran ceasefire news; Nikkei 225 and Kospi jump over 5%
Asian equity markets rallied on Wednesday, tracking US stock index futures, in reaction to the US-Iran ceasefire news, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 and South Korea’s Kospi rising over 5% intraday.

07:35 India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices rose in India on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

07:33 India RBI Interest Rate Decision (Repo Rate) in line with expectations (5.25%)
India RBI Interest Rate Decision (Repo Rate) in line with expectations (5.25%)

07:30 India Reverse Repo Rate remains unchanged at 3.35%
India Reverse Repo Rate remains unchanged at 3.35%

07:19 Pound Sterling advances as US-Iran ceasefire improves market sentiment
GBP/USD extends its winning streak for the third consecutive day, trading around 1.3400 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) declines on decreased safe-haven demand after the United States (US) and Iran agreed on a two-week ceasefire.

07:12 NZD/USD Price Forecast: Rises above 0.5800 after RBNZ rate hold, but remains below 100-day EMA
The NZD/USD pair jumps to a near two-week high of around 0.5820 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) interest rate decision and a broader risk-on sentiment.

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Technical Analysis:In the daily chart, NZD/USD trades at 0.5807. The near-term bias turns cautiously bullish as price rebounds from last week’s lows and pushes back above the 20-day Bollinger middle band near 0.5790, signaling a recovery within a still-muted volatility backdrop as the bands have started to narrow after the prior downside stretch. The pair, however, remains below the gently declining 100-day EMA around 0.5850, which keeps the broader recovery in check even as momentum improves, with the RSI bouncing from the mid-30s to just under the 50 line, indicating fading bearish pressure rather than a clear trend reversal.Initial support stands at the 0.5790 area defined by the Bollinger midline, followed by 0.5750, where the lower band from recent sessions and the late-March reaction lows converge to protect the 0.5720 zone. On the upside, immediate resistance emerges at 0.5850 near the 100-day EMA, and a daily close above this level would open the way toward the 0.5920 region, which aligns with the recent upper Bollinger band readings and a prior congestion area that capped advances in March.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

07:03 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD bulls now await acceptance above $77.00/200-EMA on H4
Silver (XAG/USD) retreats slightly from the weekly high set earlier during the Asian session this Wednesday and currently trades just below mid- $76.00s, still up over 4.5% for the day.

07:02 Japanese Yen surges against US Dollar as Trump confirms two-week ceasefire
The Japanese Yen (JPY) trades significantly higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, with the USD/JPY pair sliding 0.75% to near 158.40 during the Asian trading session.

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p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Japanese Yen outperforms the US Dollar on the US-Iran temporary ceasefire.Iran said that negotiations on the 10-point proposal with the US will begin on April 10.A sharp decline in the oil price has improved the appeal of the Japanese Yen.The Japanese Yen (JPY) trades significantly higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, with the USD/JPY pair sliding 0.75% to near 158.40 during the Asian trading session. The pair faces intense selling pressure as demand for safe-haven assets has diminished, following the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran. Japanese Yen Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.68% -0.82% -0.76% -0.34% -1.15% -1.62% -0.95% EUR 0.68% -0.15% -0.09% 0.32% -0.47% -0.98% -0.29% GBP 0.82% 0.15% 0.04% 0.49% -0.30% -0.80% -0.14% JPY 0.76% 0.09% -0.04% 0.42% -0.37% -0.85% -0.19% CAD 0.34% -0.32% -0.49% -0.42% -0.79% -1.26% -0.62% AUD 1.15% 0.47% 0.30% 0.37% 0.79% -0.49% 0.17% NZD 1.62% 0.98% 0.80% 0.85% 1.26% 0.49% 0.66% CHF 0.95% 0.29% 0.14% 0.19% 0.62% -0.17% -0.66% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote). During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is down 0.54% to near 99.00. S&P 500 futures rally almost 2.5% to near 6,777, signifying upbeat market sentiment.Earlier in the day, US President Donald Trump announced a suspension of planned attacks on Iranian civilian infrastructure for two weeks, through a post on Truth.Social, as Tehran agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical gateway to almost 20% of global oil supply. Trump added, “We received a 10-point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate.”Meanwhile, Iranian officials have also acknowledged the Hormuz reopening and have stated that negotiations on the 10-point proposal with the US will begin on April 10 in Islamabad. Tehran clarified that the 10-point proposal includes controlled transit through the Hormuz coordinated with Iranian armed forces, ending the war against Iran and allied groups, and withdrawal of US combat forces from all regional bases.The temporary ceasefire announcement between the US and Iran has resulted in a sharp decline in the WTI Oil price, which is down over 10% around $90.00. Lower oil prices bode well for currencies from economies like Japan, which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs.Going forward, investors will focus on the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the March policy meeting, which will be published later in the day. Economic Indicator FOMC Minutes FOMC stands for The Federal Open Market Committee that organizes 8 meetings in a year and reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. FOMC Minutes are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and are a clear guide to the future US interest rate policy.
Read more. Next release: Wed Apr 08, 2026 18:00 Frequency: Irregular Consensus: - Previous: - Source: Federal Reserve Why it matters to traders? Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is usually published three weeks after the day of the policy decision. Investors look for clues regarding the policy outlook in this publication alongside the vote split. A bullish tone is likely to provide a boost to the greenback while a dovish stance is seen as USD-negative. It needs to be noted that the market reaction to FOMC Minutes could be delayed as news outlets don’t have access to the publication before the release, unlike the FOMC’s Policy Statement.

06:53 Indonesia Foreign Reserves: $148.2 (March) vs previous $151.9
Indonesia Foreign Reserves: $148.2 (March) vs previous $151.9

06:48 Gold eases from three-week top, holds near $4,800 as US-Iran ceasefire pressures USD
Gold (XAU/USD) builds on the previous day's bounce from the $4,600 neighborhood and scales higher for the second straight day, hitting a nearly three-week peak during the Asian session on Wednesday.

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The precious metal, however, trims a part of its strong intraday gains and currently trades around the $4,800 round figure, still up 2.0% for the day amid a bearish US Dollar (USD).The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, tumbles to a nearly one-month low in reaction to the US-Iran ceasefire news. US President Donald Trump announced in a post on Truth Social that he will suspend planned military strikes against Iran for two weeks, provided Tehran agrees to a complete, immediate, and safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran stated that it has accepted a two-week ceasefire, with negotiations to begin on Friday in Islamabad, Pakistan. This, in turn, boosts investors' confidence and undermines the USD's global reserve currency status, benefiting the Gold price.Meanwhile, Iran’s Foreign Minister, Seyed Abbas Araghchi, said in a statement that safe passage through the key waterway will be possible for a period of two weeks, triggering a steep decline in Crude Oil prices. This helps ease inflationary concerns and tempers bets for a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). The outlook drags US Treasury bond yields lower and turns out to be another factor weighing on the Greenback, offering additional support to the non-yielding Gold. The lack of follow-through buying, however, warrants some caution for the XAU/USD bulls before positioning for a further appreciating move.XAU/USD 4-hour chartGold needs to surpass the $4,920 confluence hurdle to negate any near-term negative biasFrom a technical perspective, the near-term bias is mildly bullish as the Gold price recovers above the mid-range of the recent consolidation. The XAU/USD pair, however, still holds below the descending 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the March downfall and keeps the broader trend under pressure.Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line has turned higher into positive territory with the histogram expanding, suggesting strengthening upside momentum after the earlier corrective phase. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers in the mid-60s, reinforcing a positive tone without yet signaling extreme overbought conditions.Nevertheless, it will still be prudent to wait for a sustained strength above the $4,920 confluence hurdle before positioning for gains to the $5,000 psychological mark and then the $5,141 level at the 78.6% retracement from the next upside objectives.On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 50% retracement level, around the $4750 area, below which the Gold price could drop to the 38.20% Fibo. retracement at $4,605. This is followed by a deeper cushion near $4,411 at the 23.60% level, where a break would weaken the current bullish bias and expose the lower part of the broader Fibonacci range.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

06:40 EUR/USD Price Forecast: Rises above 1.1650, moving averages amid bullish reversal
EUR/USD extends its winning streak for the third successive day, trading around 1.1670 during Asian hours on Wednesday. The daily chart technical analysis indicates a bullish reversal as the pair is rising above the descending channel pattern.

06:27 AUD/USD Price Forecast: Aims to revisit multi-year high of 0.7190
The AUD/USD pair surges 1.2% to near 0.7060 in the Asian trading session on Wednesday.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}AUD/USD jumps over 1% to near 0.7060 as market sentiment turns extremely favorable for riskier assets.US President Trump announces suspension of planned attacks on Iran for two weeks.Investors await the US FOMC minutes, which will be released later in the day.The AUD/USD pair surges 1.2% to near 0.7060 in the Asian trading session on Wednesday. The Aussie pair strengthens as the Australian Dollar (AUD) outperforms its peers, following Iran’s acceptance of a temporary ceasefire with the United States (US), resulting in a significant improvement in investors’ risk appetite. Australian Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.64% -0.77% -0.74% -0.32% -1.06% -1.20% -0.90% EUR 0.64% -0.14% -0.09% 0.31% -0.43% -0.59% -0.27% GBP 0.77% 0.14% 0.04% 0.48% -0.26% -0.42% -0.13% JPY 0.74% 0.09% -0.04% 0.41% -0.30% -0.46% -0.16% CAD 0.32% -0.31% -0.48% -0.41% -0.71% -0.85% -0.58% AUD 1.06% 0.43% 0.26% 0.30% 0.71% -0.16% 0.13% NZD 1.20% 0.59% 0.42% 0.46% 0.85% 0.16% 0.29% CHF 0.90% 0.27% 0.13% 0.16% 0.58% -0.13% -0.29% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). S&P 500 futures have rallied almost 2.5% in the Asian trade, reflecting an upbeat market mood. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is down over 0.5% at around 99.00.Before the completion of the US President Donald Trump’s deadline of planned attacks on Iran, which was Tuesday, 08:00 PM ET, he announced, through a post on Truth.Social, that he is suspending attacks for two weeks, as Tehran has agreed to a “complete, immediate, and safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz”. Trump added, “We received a 10-point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate.”On the monetary policy front, investors await the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the March policy meeting, which will be released on late Wednesday. In the policy meeting, the Federal Reserve (Fed) decided to leave interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.50%-3.75%.AUD/USD technical analysisAUD/USD trades higher at around 0.7060 as of writing. The pair has ecxtended its recovery above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6970, tilting the near-term bias modestly bullish after defending the late-March lows around 0.6850–0.6875. Price action shows a sequence of higher closes from the 0.6880 region, and the RSI pushing back above the 50 line confirms improving upside momentum rather than simple mean reversion around the average.Initial support is now seen at 0.6970, where the 20-day EMA converges with recent minor congestion, followed by stronger support at 0.6925 and then 0.6880. On the topside, immediate resistance aligns at 0.7120, the late-March swing high, followed by 0.7150; a daily close above this band would open a continuation move toward the multi-year high in the 0.7200 area. A failure to hold above 0.7000 would weaken the current bullish bias and expose a deeper pullback toward 0.6925.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

06:26 US President Trump: Issue of Uranium would be perfectly taken care of
In a telephonic interview with Agence France-Presse (AFP) after the announcement of the ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran, US President Donald Trump touted that the truce with Iran is a “total and complete victory”.

In a telephonic interview with Agence France-Presse (AFP) after the announcement of the ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran, US President Donald Trump touted that the truce with Iran is a “total and complete victory”.Additional quotesThe issue of Uranium would be perfectly taken care of or I wouldn’t have settled.

One hundred percent. No question about it.

I hear yes, when asked if Beijing had been involved in pressuring Tehran to negotiate.
developing story ...

06:16 Israel’s PM Netanyahu supports Trump’s decision to suspend attacks on Iran
Israeli Prime Minister (PM) Benjamin Netanyahu said during Asian trading hours on Wednesday that the nation supports United States (US) President Donald Trump’s decision to suspend attacks on Iran for two weeks, subject to Iran opening the Strait of Hormuz and stopping attacks, Israeli media reporte

05:27 AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Gains momentum, bullish bias prevails above 100-day EMA
The AUD/JPY cross gathers strength to around 111.80 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges higher against the Japanese Yen (JPY) amid improved risk sentiment.

05:15 NZD/USD sticks to gains near two-week top, around 0.5800 after RBNZ leaves rates unchanged
The NZD/USD pair turns positive for the third straight day following a modest Asian session dip to the 0.5700 mark and rallies to a nearly two-week top on Wednesday in reaction to the US-Iran ceasefire news.

05:13 AUD/NZD edges lower toward 1.2150 as RBNZ keeps OCR unchanged
AUD/NZD trades around 1.2170 during the Asian hours on Wednesday, halting its winning streak that began on March 30.

05:00 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision meets forecasts (2.25%)
New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision meets forecasts (2.25%)

04:44 White House: Considering in-person talks with Iran but not been finalised
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt clarified that talks with Iran have not been finalized after the latter said it agreed to talks with the United States (US) to begin Friday in Pakistan.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt clarified that talks with Iran have not been finalized after the latter said it agreed to talks with the United States (US) to begin Friday in Pakistan.“There are discussions about in-person talks, but nothing is final until announced by the President or the White House, Karoline said.

04:35 EUR/JPY trades near 185.00 after losing recent gains
EUR/JPY offers its daily gains, trading around 185.10 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The currency cross trims intraday gains as the Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens on falling oil prices after the US-Iran ceasefire.

04:28 WTI Price Forecast: Seems vulnerable near $90.50 as technical breakdown comes into play
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – plummets to a nearly two-week trough during the Asian session on Wednesday in reaction to news that the US and Iran have agreed to a two-week ceasefire.

04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8680 vs. 6.8854 previous
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Wednesday at 6.8680 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.8854 and 6.8369 Reuters estimate.

04:09 US Dollar Index softens to near 99.00 as Trump agrees to two-week ceasefire, FOMC Minutes loom
The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, currently trades near 99.05 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday.

03:53 USD/CHF hangs near two-week low, around 0.7900 as US-Iran ceasefire triggers USD sell-off
The USD/CHF pair attracts heavy selling during the Asian session on Wednesday and dives to a two-week low amid a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD).

03:50 NZD/USD rises to near 0.5800 following US-Iran ceasefire, RBNZ decision eyed
NZD/USD extends its winning streak for the third successive day, trading around 0.5790 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair appreciates amid risk-on sentiment after US President Donald Trump agrees to suspend Iran bombing for two weeks.

03:26 Canadian Dollar gathers strength as Trump suspends US attacks
The USD/CAD pair declines to around 1.3835 during the early Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The US Dollar (USD) weakens against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) after Iran agrees to a two-week ceasefire with the United States (US).

03:25 Iran continues attacks in the Middle East and on Israel, despite the ceasefire
Despite the United States (US) and Iran agreeing to a ceasefire for two weeks, Iranian attacks continue in the Middle East and on Israel as missile alerts keep sounding.

03:24 Japan Trade Balance - BOP Basis dipped from previous ¥3145B to ¥2709B in February
Japan Trade Balance - BOP Basis dipped from previous ¥3145B to ¥2709B in February

03:24 Japan Trade Balance - BOP Basis declined to ¥2.709B in February from previous ¥3145B
Japan Trade Balance - BOP Basis declined to ¥2.709B in February from previous ¥3145B

03:22 Silver rallies to fresh weekly high, above $77.00 as USD plummets on US-Iran ceasefire
Silver (XAG/USD) rallies to a fresh weekly high during the Asian session on Wednesday, with bulls now looking to build on the momentum beyond the $77.00 mark amid a broad-based US Dollar (USD) selloff.

02:51 GBP/USD surges toward 1.3400 as Iran ceasefire deflates the US Dollar
GBP/USD ripped higher on Tuesday as the US Dollar buckled under a wave of risk-on positioning triggered by President Trump's announcement of a two-week ceasefire with Iran.

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The pair surged from the low 1.3200s into the upper 1.3300s, reclaiming ground above both the 50 and 200-period hourly moving averages in the process.The move was almost entirely a Dollar story. WTI Crude Oil cratered from above $106 to below $90 per barrel as traders, who had already been fading Trump's deadline rhetoric throughout the session, piled into the selloff once the Truth Social post confirmed the pause. S&P 500 futures jumped over 1%, and the US Dollar Index (DXY) slid back toward 100.00 as the haven bid that had propped up the Greenback for weeks started to unwind.Can the Pound actually hold these levels?That is the uncomfortable question. Sterling's rally on Tuesday was a function of Dollar weakness, not Pound strength. The UK's own fundamentals look increasingly fragile. Final March services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data released earlier on Tuesday came in at 50.5, revised down from a flash estimate of 51.2 and a sharp drop from February's 53.9. The composite reading fell to 50.3. S&P Global flagged the slowest services expansion in eleven months, with new work declining for the first time since November 2025 and input cost inflation hitting an eleven-month high on surging fuel and transportation bills.In short, the UK is flashing stagflation signals. Growth is stalling while costs are accelerating, and the Middle East conflict is the primary driver of both trends.The BoE's impossible trade-off just got more complicatedThe BoE has held rates at 3.75% since December 2025, voting unanimously to stay put at the March meeting. Before the Iran war erupted, markets were pricing two to three cuts in 2026. That expectation was obliterated by the energy shock. By late March, swaps markets had flipped to pricing four quarter-point hikes by year-end, reflecting the passthrough of surging Oil and gas prices into UK inflation.Tuesday's ceasefire throws a wrench into that repricing. If the pause holds and Oil continues to slide, the inflationary impulse weakens and the BoE gets room to resume easing. JP Morgan's Allan Monks had flagged the April 30 meeting as the natural window for a hike if inflation continued to be validated by incoming data, but a sustained drop in energy prices would undercut that thesis. ING's James Smith had already noted that rapid de-escalation could bring the next cut forward to April.The problem is that this is Trump's fourth deadline extension. Markets sold Oil aggressively on each of the prior three pauses, only to buy it all back when diplomacy collapsed. Iran publicly rejected the temporary ceasefire just hours before Trump's announcement and has been demanding a permanent end to hostilities plus sanctions relief. The gap between the two sides remains wide, and Polymarket odds as of Monday put the probability of a lasting ceasefire by end of April at just 22.5%.What to watch this weekWednesday brings the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes from the March meeting (18:00 GMT), along with remarks from Fed officials Daly and Waller. Traders will be parsing the minutes for any discussion of how the Iran conflict is shaping the Federal Reserve's (Fed) inflation outlook. Thursday delivers Core PCE for February (12:30 GMT), the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, alongside Gross Domestic Product (GDP) revisions and initial jobless claims. Friday is the big one: March CPI lands at 12:30 GMT with consensus at 3.3% YoY, down from the prior 2.4% reading. Core CPI is expected at 2.7% YoY versus 2.5% prior.On the UK side, Halifax House Prices and the construction PMI on Wednesday, followed by the BoE Credit Conditions Survey on Thursday, will offer a read on how the domestic economy is absorbing the energy shock. The RICS Housing Price Balance is also due Wednesday night, with consensus at -18% suggesting continued pressure on the property market.The technical pictureGBP/USD is trading near 1.3400 after Tuesday's surge, reclaiming territory it last held in late March. The pair is well above the 200-period EMA at 1.3261 and the Stochastic RSI has room to run before hitting overbought territory. Resistance sits at the recent swing high near 1.3480, while a failure to hold above 1.3300 would suggest the ceasefire rally is fading. The broader range since late March has been defined by the 1.3160 low and the 1.3480 high, and which side breaks first will likely depend on whether this two-week pause produces anything different from the last four.The bottom lineGBP/USD is riding a ceasefire wave, but the pair is caught between a weakening Dollar and a UK economy that is barely growing. If this pause collapses like the others, the haven bid returns, Oil spikes, and the pair gives back Tuesday's gains in a hurry. If it holds, the BoE gets breathing room, the energy premium unwinds further, and Cable has a genuine shot at retesting 1.3480 and beyond. The next 48 hours of data, starting with the FOMC Minutes and ending with CPI, will tell traders whether the macro backdrop supports a sustained move or whether this is just another head-fake in the ceasefire cycle.GBP/USD 1-hour chart
Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

02:50 Japan Current Account n.s.a. below forecasts (¥3549B) in February: Actual (¥3.933B)
Japan Current Account n.s.a. below forecasts (¥3549B) in February: Actual (¥3.933B)

02:43 Iran’s Foreign Minister: Safe passage of Hormuz will be possible for two weeks
Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, said on Tuesday that safe passage of Hormuz will be possible for two weeks. This statement came after US President Donald Trump agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran.

02:30 Iran confirms US negotiations, says ceasefire hinges on finalising 10-point proposal
An Iranian official stated that it has accepted a two-week ceasefire after US President Donald Trump said he would suspend attacks, subject to Tehran agreeing to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

02:30 Japan Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) came in at 3.3%, above forecasts (2.7%) in February
Japan Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) came in at 3.3%, above forecasts (2.7%) in February

02:17 USD/JPY retreats from 160.00 as ceasefire crushes Oil premium
USD/JPY reversed sharply on Tuesday, touching a session high around 160.50 before collapsing below 159.00 to settle near 158.85.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/JPY touched 160.46 before reversing sharply as the ceasefire sent the US Dollar tumbling across the board.Japan's household spending dropped 1.8% YoY in February, far worse than the 0.7% decline expected by economists.The Oil crash below $90 eases import cost pressures on Japan, strengthening the case for a BoJ hike this month.USD/JPY reversed sharply on Tuesday, touching a session high around 160.50 before collapsing below 159.00 to settle near 158.85. The pair had briefly breached 160.00 for the first time since July 2024, a level that previously triggered direct intervention from Japan's Ministry of Finance, before the late-session reversal erased the entire day's gains and then some. The selloff accelerated after President Trump announced a two-week suspension of military operations against Iran, crushing the US Dollar's safe-haven bid.On the Japanese Yen side, the collapse in WTI Crude Oil from above $106 to below $90 per barrel is a significant relief for Japan as a major net energy importer. Elevated oil costs had been feeding through to producer and consumer prices, complicating the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) rate path. The plunge may ease some of that imported inflation pressure, though it also strengthens the case for a rate hike by reducing the risk that tighter policy tips the economy into recession. February household spending fell 1.8% YoY, significantly worse than the 0.7% decline consensus, suggesting consumer demand remains fragile even before the full impact of higher energy costs. Markets continue to price in roughly a 70% probability of a BoJ rate hike later this month. Finance Minister Katayama flagged rising speculative activity in currency markets last week, and Prime Minister Takaichi said she would pursue direct talks with both Iran's leadership and President Trump. Thursday's Japanese Producer Price Index (PPI) data could further inform the BoJ's calculus ahead of the April 28 meeting.On the US Dollar side, S&P 500 futures surged 1.1% and Nasdaq futures jumped 1.2% on the ceasefire confirmation, pulling capital out of the Dollar and into risk assets. The pause was brokered by Pakistan's Prime Minister, with Trump describing a 10-point Iranian proposal as a "workable basis" for negotiation, though Tehran had publicly rejected a 45-day ceasefire just hours earlier. This was Trump's fourth deadline extension since the conflict began in late February, and traders had been positioning for exactly this outcome throughout the session. February Durable Goods Orders missed at negative 1.4%, though the ex-transportation reading was firmer at 0.8%. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes are due Wednesday, alongside speeches from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials Daly and Waller. The key question now is whether physical shipping traffic actually resumes through the Strait of Hormuz; without that, the Oil premium will rebuild and the Dollar's safe-haven bid will return.USD/JPY 1-hour chartUSD/JPY drops below the 200-period EMA on the one-hour chart as Stochastic drifts in neutral territoryOn the one-hour chart, USD/JPY has fallen below the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 159.50, after failing at the 160.50 high. The pair is now trading close to 158.85, well below that moving average, with the Stochastic Oscillator sitting in neutral territory after pulling back from an earlier overbought reading. The sharp rejection from 160.00 and the break below the 200-period EMA suggest sellers have gained control in the short term. A break below the 158.30 area would expose the March lows near 157.50, while a reclaim of 159.50 and the 200-period EMA would be the first sign of buyers re-engaging toward the 160.00 level. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

02:15 AUD/USD surges past 0.7050 as Trump suspends Iran strikes for two weeks
AUD/USD surged over 1.3% on Tuesday, rallying from around 0.6970 to trade close to 0.7060 by the close of the session.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Pakistan brokered a two-week ceasefire just before Trump's midnight GMT deadline, sending WTI Crude Oil below $90.The RBA faces a shifting inflation picture as the plunge in Oil could ease energy-driven price pressures ahead.AUD/USD surged over 1.3% on Tuesday, rallying from around 0.6970 to trade close to 0.7060 by the close of the session. The move came as risk appetite roared back after President Trump announced a two-week suspension of military operations against Iran, sending WTI Crude Oil crashing from above $106 to below $90 per barrel. The pair reclaimed territory above a key moving average on the four-hour chart and posted its strongest single-session gain in weeks.On the Australian Dollar side, the ceasefire could materially shift the inflation outlook that has been driving Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate hike expectations. Markets had been pricing in a potential move to 4.35% or higher at the May meeting, fueled in part by surging energy costs since the Strait of Hormuz closure in late February. WTI Crude Oil's plunge below $90, still roughly 55% above its pre-war level near $58, may take some heat off the energy component if it holds, though analysts warn supply normalization could take months even under a permanent deal. Domestically, the S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for March fell to 46.6 from 47, while the TD-MI Inflation Gauge jumped 1.3% MoM, with the annual rate rising to 4.3% from 3.6%. The weak PMI and hot inflation print continue to pull the RBA in opposite directions.On the US Dollar side, the ceasefire announcement landed just before Trump's own midnight GMT Wednesday deadline, after which he had threatened to destroy Iranian bridges and power plants within four hours. Pakistan's Prime Minister brokered the pause, and Trump described a 10-point proposal from Tehran as a "workable basis" for negotiation, though Iran had publicly rejected a 45-day ceasefire just hours earlier and continues to demand a permanent end to hostilities. S&P 500 futures surged 1.1% and Nasdaq futures jumped 1.2% on confirmation, crushing the US Dollar's safe-haven bid. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes are due Wednesday, alongside speeches from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials Daly and Waller. February Durable Goods Orders fell 1.4% on Tuesday, missing expectations, though the ex-transportation reading came in firmer at 0.8%. The real test now is whether actual shipping traffic resumes through the Strait of Hormuz; traders have seen Trump set and extend deadlines four times since the conflict began in late February, and the market will need to see physical flows before pricing in a durable risk-on shift.AUD/USD 4-hour chartAUD/USD reclaims the 200-period EMA on the four-hour chart as Stochastic pushes toward overboughtOn the four-hour chart, AUD/USD has broken sharply above the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) close to 0.6970, which had capped price for much of the past two weeks. The Stochastic Oscillator has surged from the lower half of its range and is now approaching the overbought zone, suggesting strong upside momentum but also warning of a potential near-term cooldown. A sustained hold above 0.7000 would open a path back toward the year-to-date high near 0.7120, while a failure to hold above the 200-period EMA around 0.6970 would suggest the rally was a one-off ceasefire reaction and shift focus back to support close to 0.6900. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

02:15 EUR/USD climbs above 1.1650 after Trump agrees to two-week ceasefire with Iran
The EUR/USD pair surges to around 1.1670 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The Euro (EUR) strengthens against the Greenback after US President Donald Trump agrees to a two-week ceasefire with Iran.

02:06 WTI Crude crashes below $90 as Trump suspends Iran strikes, but will it last?
WTI Crude Oil plunged from above $106 to below $90 per barrel on Tuesday after President Trump announced a two-week suspension of military operations against Iran, though markets had already been selling Oil throughout the session as traders bet he would blink on his own 00:00 GMT Wednesday deadline

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S&P 500 E-minis surged 1.1%, and Nasdaq futures jumped 1.2% on the confirmation, but logical warnings exist that infrastructure damage to Gulf production facilities means supply normalization could take months even if a permanent deal is reached.What just happened?West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil's war premium just took its biggest hit in weeks, and the market saw it coming. WTI Crude Oil cratered from above $106 to back below $90 per barrel on Tuesday, its sharpest intraday decline since the conflict began. The crash came after President Trump posted on Truth Social that he would suspend bombing and attacks on Iran for two weeks. But the selloff did not begin with that post. Prices had been leaking lower throughout the session as traders, now well-versed in Trump's pattern of setting aggressive deadlines only to extend them, positioned for exactly this outcome. By the time the announcement hit, the market had already done much of the heavy lifting.Traders had the playbook memorizedThis was Trump's fourth deadline for Iran since the conflict began in late February. Each prior ultimatum followed the same arc: inflammatory rhetoric, a hard deadline, last-minute diplomatic activity, then an extension. The late-March five-day pause sent WTI tumbling 11% in a single session. The April 1 "ceasefire" claim produced another sharp dip before prices ground back higher. Traders did not need to wait for the Truth Social post this time around. Reports earlier in the day that Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey were making a last-ditch mediation push gave the market its cue, and the S&P 500 erased a 1.2% intraday decline well before Trump confirmed the pause. Oil followed suit, sliding steadily from the session high above $106 before the announcement turned an orderly retreat into a vertical drop that tested territory south of $90 per barrel.Pakistan brokers the off-rampThe ceasefire came together through Pakistani mediation. Trump cited conversations with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir as the catalyst, noting that Pakistan had requested he hold off on what he described as "destructive force being sent tonight to Iran." The deal is conditional: Iran must agree to the "complete, immediate, and safe opening" of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump called it a "double-sided ceasefire" and said a 10-point proposal received from Tehran was a "workable basis" for negotiation. The announcement landed just before his own 00:00 GMT Wednesday deadline, after which he had threatened to destroy every bridge and power plant in the country within four hours.How much premium is left to unwind?The numbers tell the story of just how inflated Oil prices have become. WTI traded below $58 in January before the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran began on February 28. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz choked off roughly 20% of global seaborne Oil supply, which Goldman Sachs has called the largest supply disruption in the history of the global crude market. TD Securities estimates nearly 1 billion barrels of crude and refined products will be lost by the end of April. Even after Tuesday's crash below $90, WTI is still roughly 55% above its pre-war level. The futures curve already prices Brent at $90 by August, suggesting the market sees further downside if the ceasefire holds. Goldman's Q4 2026 base case sits at $67 WTI and $71 Brent, assuming gradual Strait reopening. JPMorgan's pre-war outlook had Brent in the $60 range.Don't pop the champagne yetThe market may have correctly front-run this particular deadline extension, but the trade is far from clean. Iran had publicly rejected a 45-day ceasefire proposal just hours before this announcement and had been demanding a permanent end to hostilities, war reparations, and sanctions relief. The two-week window gives both sides room to negotiate, but the gap between their positions remains wide. Polymarket odds as of Monday put the probability of a ceasefire by end of April at just 22.5%, rising to 51.5% by end of June. Infrastructure damage to Gulf production facilities also means that even a genuine peace deal would not restore supply overnight. Analysts at Rapidan Energy project a total net loss of 630 million barrels of Oil and products by the end of June, accounting for redirected pipeline flows, emergency stockpile releases, and inventory drawdowns.What to watch nextThe real question is whether this two-week window produces anything different from the last four deadline cycles. Traders will be watching for actual Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic to resume, not just diplomatic language. Staying below $90 per barrel requires genuine flows at something close to pre-war volumes. The market has proven it will sell first and ask questions later when ceasefire headlines land, but it has also proven it will buy everything back just as fast when diplomacy stalls. If this pause collapses like the others, the $116 high seen earlier this week may not hold as the ceiling for long.WTI 15-minute chart
WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

02:00 South Korea Current Account Balance climbed from previous 13.26B to 23.19B in February
South Korea Current Account Balance climbed from previous 13.26B to 23.19B in February

01:46 Gold jumps above $4,750 on Trump’s Iran strike delay
Gold price (XAU/USD) rises to near $4,775 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The precious metal attracts some buyers after US President Donald Trump agrees to suspend Iran bombing for two weeks.

01:37 Breaking: US President Donald Trump delays bombing for two weeks
US President Donald Trump revealed via a post in Truth Social that he's suspending the attacks by two weeks.

01:28 NZD: RBNZ seen steady as markets overprice hikes – TD Securities
TD Securities’ Global Strategy Team expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to leave the Official Cash Rate unchanged, in line with market consensus. The analysts think RBNZ communication will stress patience in responding to supply shocks while the economy runs below capacity.

TD Securities’ Global Strategy Team expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to leave the Official Cash Rate unchanged, in line with market consensus. The analysts think RBNZ communication will stress patience in responding to supply shocks while the economy runs below capacity. They see current market pricing of more than 75 bps of hikes in 2026 as excessive and will scrutinize Minutes for any hint of earlier tightening.RBNZ expected to push back on hikes"We and the market do not expect any change in the cash rate at this meeting.""Like the Governor's speech last week, the Bank's communication is likely to reaffirm the Bank's reluctance to respond impulsively to the supply shock, especially when the economy is operating below capacity.""This should challenge the market's pricing of more than 75bps of hikes this year.""We will scan the Minutes for any signs the RBNZ may consider shifting its stance in favor of bringing forward hikes earlier."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

00:59 NZD/USD stays neutral ahead of RBNZ decision as geopolitical risks and policy outlook weigh
The NZD/USD pair is trading near the 0.5720 region on Wednesday, holding a neutral tone as the US Dollar (USD) remains supported by safe-haven demand while traders brace for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) monetary policy decision.

Focus shifts to RBNZ guidance, as the rate hold is already priced in.Inflation near 3.1% seen as partly temporary, with policymakers likely to look through energy-driven pressures.Hawkish signals may support the NZD, while a cautious stance keeps downside risks in play.The NZD/USD pair is trading near the 0.5720 region on Wednesday, holding a neutral tone as the US Dollar (USD) remains supported by safe-haven demand while traders brace for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) monetary policy decision.Geopolitical tensions continue to dominate sentiment after United States (US) President Donald Trump reinforced a hardline stance on Iran, setting the deadline to a few hours from now, while Tehran reportedly cut diplomatic communication channels with the United States. The escalation around the Strait of Hormuz keeps markets on edge, supporting the USD through risk aversion and elevated energy prices.As a result, investors will closely assess whether the RBNZ leans toward a more cautious stance or keeps the door open for further tightening. A more hawkish tone could provide limited support to the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), while a neutral or patient approach may leave the currency exposed to ongoing downside pressures amid a stronger USD.
Technical analysis:On the 4-hour chart, NZD/USD trades at 0.5735. The near-term bias is mildly bullish as price pushes back above the 20-period Moving Average (0.5710) while remaining well below the declining 100-period Moving Average (0.5780), which still caps the broader trend. The Relative Strength Index at 56 rises above the midline, indicating recovering upside momentum after a period of subdued trading around 0.57.Immediate resistance stands at 0.5736, where a horizontal barrier converges with the recent breakout area, followed by the 100-period Moving Average near 0.5780 and the 0.5907 level. On the downside, initial support aligns at 0.5724, with 0.5704 and 0.5702 reinforcing a tight demand zone that has contained recent pullbacks; a break below this band would expose the broader downtrend, while holding above it keeps the short-term recovery scope toward the upper resistances.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

00:53 Asia FX: Cautious outlook with Iran risks – MUFG
MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Michael Wan highlights that escalating tensions between the US and Iran, including threats over the Strait of Hormuz (SoH), keep the path to peace narrow and uncertain.

MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Michael Wan highlights that escalating tensions between the US and Iran, including threats over the Strait of Hormuz (SoH), keep the path to peace narrow and uncertain. He remains cautious on Asian currencies and regional risk assets as Oil supply risks persist, even as some marginal improvements in tanker flows and potential Iraqi exports through the Strait of Hormuz emerge.Asia FX weighed by Iran conflict risks"Overall, our continued assessment is that the path towards peace is narrow and unlikely, given the wide gap in expectations among the different parties in this war.""As such we remain cautious on the path for Asian currencies and risk assets moving forward, but note at least two important developments in oil markets and potentially positive ones notwithstanding continued uncertainty around how the Iran/Middle East conflict will develop: Overall, our takeaway is that it is an improvement at the margin in terms of flows from SoH, and we should watch carefully for how these develop.""For Asia however, even if the SoH were to reopen completely today, it will take some time for actual supply to come onstream and flow through, with some suggesting at least 3-6 months timeline, with petrochemicals the worst impacted.""While tactically speaking the war could eventually end from 3 key constraints – Munitions, Markets, and the Mid-terms, how we get there will be important including what the pain threshold is for oil prices to rise further from here."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

00:52 USD/JPY tests 160.00 as ceasefire uncertainty keeps the Yen under pressure
Trump's 8 pm ET deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz looms as ceasefire talks stall and oil tops $100.

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The pair reached its highest level since July 2024, a threshold that previously triggered direct intervention from Japan's Ministry of Finance. The late-session decline came as headlines around ceasefire discussions picked up, though the pair held above its key moving averages.On the Japanese Yen side, February household spending fell 1.8% YoY, significantly worse than the 0.7% decline consensus and the 1.0% drop recorded previously, suggesting consumer demand remains fragile. Labor cash earnings rose 2.7% YoY in February, matching expectations but slowing from 3.0% in January. The preliminary Leading Economic Index for February edged up to 112.4, slightly above consensus. Despite the weak spending data, markets continue to price in roughly a 70% probability of a Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike later this month, with Governor Ueda's recent hawkish signals keeping expectations firm. Finance Minister Katayama flagged rising speculative activity in currency markets on Friday, and Prime Minister Takaichi said she would pursue direct talks with both Iran's leadership and President Trump. Thursday's Japanese Producer Price Index (PPI) data could further inform the BoJ's inflation calculus ahead of the April 28 meeting.On the US Dollar side, the focus sits squarely on Wednesday's events. President Trump has set an 8 pm ET deadline for Iran to agree to a ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with Pakistan's Prime Minister requesting a two-week extension. Iran has rejected temporary ceasefire proposals and is pushing for a permanent end to the war. The US struck targets on Iran's Kharg Island overnight, though oil infrastructure was reportedly spared. The FOMC Minutes are due Wednesday evening, alongside speeches from Fed officials Daly and Waller, which may offer further clarity on the rate path after the Fed held at 3.50% to 3.75% in March.USD/JPY 15-minute chartTechnical AnalysisIn the 15-minute chart, USD/JPY trades at 159.57. The near-term bias is mildly bearish as prices slip below the day’s opening area and edge closer to the 200-period exponential moving average, which is flattening around 159.70 and losing upside influence. The pair has been making lower intraday highs, while Stochastic RSI remains suppressed in the lower quartile of its range, signaling weak upside momentum and favoring continued pressure on immediate supports rather than a sustained rebound.Initial support is located near 159.50, just beneath current prices, where a decisive break would expose the 159.30 region as the next intraday floor. Below that, focus would shift toward 159.00 as a deeper corrective objective. On the upside, the 200-period EMA around 159.70 now acts as first resistance, with a recovery through this cap needed to ease the bearish tone and open the way toward 159.90. A sustained move above 159.90 would neutralize the short-term downside bias and point to a retest of the 160.20 zone.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

00:49 AUD/USD edges higher as ceasefire hopes lift risk appetite ahead of deadline
AUD/USD rose around 0.4% on Tuesday, recovering from early session lows near 0.6900 to trade close to 0.6950. The pair pushed briefly toward the 0.6980 area during the session, its highest level in over a week, as ceasefire optimism fueled a broad improvement in risk sentiment.

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The pair pushed briefly toward the 0.6980 area during the session, its highest level in over a week, as ceasefire optimism fueled a broad improvement in risk sentiment. The move erased the prior session's modest decline and pushed price back above a key moving average on the daily chart.On the Australian Dollar side, the S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for March fell to 46.6 from 47, while the Services PMI slipped to 46.3 from 46.6, pointing to a further contraction in private sector output. Separately, the TD-MI Inflation Gauge jumped 1.3% MoM in March after a 0.2% decline in February, with the annual rate rising to 4.3% from 3.6%. The elevated inflation reading reinforces expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may need to hike again at the May meeting, with markets now pricing in a potential move toward 4.35% or higher. ANZ Job Advertisements fell 3.1% in March, a soft signal for the labor market that may temper hawkish expectations slightly.On the US Dollar side, February Durable Goods Orders fell 1.4%, missing the consensus forecast of a 0.5% decline, though the ex-transportation reading came in stronger at 0.8%. The ADP Employment Change four-week average rose to 26K from 10K. Federal Reserve (Fed) speakers were mixed on Tuesday, with Governor Williams delivering a neutral score and Governor Goolsbee leaning hawkish. Markets remain focused on Wednesday's 8 pm ET deadline set by President Trump for Iran to agree to a deal and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Pakistan's Prime Minister has proposed a two-week ceasefire window, and a response from the White House is expected. An agreement, or even a credible extension of the deadline, could further weigh on crude oil prices and ease inflationary pressures globally, benefiting risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian Dollar. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes are also due Wednesday, alongside speeches from Fed officials Daly and Waller.AUD/USD 15-minute chartTechnical AnalysisIn the 15-minute chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.6976. The near-term bias is mildly bullish as price holds above the rising 200-period exponential moving average near 0.6927, confirming an intraday uptrend structure after a steady sequence of higher closes. Stochastic RSI remains anchored in elevated territory, signalling persistent upside momentum rather than a completed overbought reversal, which supports the view that dips are likely to attract buyers while the pair remains above its intraday trend base.Initial support emerges at 0.6955, guarding a deeper pullback toward 0.6935 and the 0.6927 area where the 200-period EMA reinforces a stronger support zone. On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at 0.6980, with a break exposing the 0.7000 psychological barrier as the next upside objective. As long as price action holds above 0.6935, the path of least resistance favors continuation toward 0.7000 rather than a sustained reversal lower.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

00:21 Pakistan PM Sharif asks Trump to extend Iran Hormuz deadline by two weeks
Recently, Pakistan requested a two-week extension from US President Donald Trump to a deadline that he imposed eleven days ago.

00:16 United States API Weekly Crude Oil Stock fell from previous 10.263M to 3.719M in April 3
United States API Weekly Crude Oil Stock fell from previous 10.263M to 3.719M in April 3

00:15 RBNZ set to hold interest rate, keeping options open as inflation risks build
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is set to extend the pause on its current interest rate-cutting cycle for the second consecutive meeting on Wednesday, leaving the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unadjusted at 2.25%, as the Iran war adds uncertainty to the economic and inflation outlook.

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50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is set to hold the key interest rate at 2.25% for a second straight meeting on Wednesday.The RBNZ’s Monetary Policy Review and Governor Breman’s words will be closely scrutinized for policy guidance.The New Zealand Dollar is expected to rock in reaction to the RBNZ policy announcements.The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is set to extend the pause on its current interest rate-cutting cycle for the second consecutive meeting on Wednesday, leaving the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unadjusted at 2.25%, as the Iran war adds uncertainty to the economic and inflation outlook.The decision is widely expected and will be announced at 02:00 GMT, accompanied by the Monetary Policy Review (MPR) and the Minutes of the meeting. RBNZ Governor Dr. Anna Breman will hold the post-monetary policy meeting press conference at 03:00 GMT.The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could experience intense volatility on either a probable hawkish pivot from the RBNZ or its wait-and-see stance. What to expect from the RBNZ interest rate decision? With a rate on-hold decision fully baked in, markets will dissect the RBNZ MPR and Governor Breman’s commentary for any hints on a likely rate hike this year in the wake of the energy shock-driven higher inflation projections.During the press conference, Breman is expected to stick to the script delivered in her recent speech on March 23.Back then, Breman said that the Bank is “looking for second-round effects” and “if inflation expectations shift, (it) will act. ““[We] do not want to react too soon to inflationary pressures,” she added, safeguarding against premature tightening of financial conditions. New Zealand’s annual inflation rate stood at 3.1% in the quarter ending December 2025, slightly above the RBNZ’s target range of 1% to 3%.The Minutes of the meeting will also hold some relevance as these could provide insights about a probable debate among policymakers over the likelihood of second-round persistent inflation, potentially offering policy guidance.“Like the Governor's speech last week, the Bank's communication is likely to reaffirm the Bank's reluctance to respond impulsively to the supply shock, especially when the economy is operating below capacity, Analysts at TD Securities (TDS) said. “This should challenge the market's pricing of more than 75bps of hikes this year.”How will the RBNZ interest rate decision impact the New Zealand Dollar?The NZD/USD pair hovers near the five-month lows of 0.5681 in the lead-up to the RBNZ showdown. Will the RBNZ’s hawkish pivot rescue the Kiwi bulls? If the RBNZ surprises with hints on a potential shift toward interest-rate hikes later this year, the NZD could embark upon a sustained recovery against the US Dollar (USD).On the contrary, if the central bank dismisses concerns over the near-term inflation shock and sticks to a wait-and-see stance, the Kiwi Dollar could resume its bearish trend.Dhwani Mehta, Asian Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, offers a brief technical outlook for NZD/USD and explains:“The Kiwi remains vulnerable, despite the dead cat bounce. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds well below the midline, while a Bear Cross is playing out. The 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) closed below the 100-day SMA on April 1, confirming the bearish bias.”“The immediate resistance is seen at the 0.5750 psychological level on the road to recovery. The next topside hurdles align at the 0.5800 round figure and the 100-day SMA at 0.5840. On the flip side, strong support is seen at the 0.5600 threshold, below which the November 2025 low of 0.5580 will be at risk. The line in the sand for NZD bulls is at the 0.5550 mark,” Dhwani adds. Economic Indicator RBNZ Interest Rate Decision The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announces its interest rate decision after each of its seven scheduled annual policy meetings. If the RBNZ is hawkish and sees inflationary pressures rising, it raises the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to bring inflation down. This is positive for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) since higher interest rates attract more capital inflows. Likewise, if it reaches the view that inflation is too low it lowers the OCR, which tends to weaken NZD. Read more. Next release: Wed Apr 08, 2026 02:00 Frequency: Irregular Consensus: 2.25% Previous: 2.25% Source: Reserve Bank of New Zealand Why it matters to traders? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) holds monetary policy meetings seven times a year, announcing their decision on interest rates and the economic assessments that influenced their decision. The central bank offers clues on the economic outlook and future policy path, which are of high relevance for the NZD valuation. Positive economic developments and upbeat outlook could lead the RBNZ to tighten the policy by hiking interest rates, which tends to be NZD bullish. The policy announcements are usually followed by interim Governor Christian Hawkesby's press conference. RBNZ FAQs What is the Reserve Bank of New Zealand? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is the country’s central bank. Its economic objectives are achieving and maintaining price stability – achieved when inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), falls within the band of between 1% and 3% – and supporting maximum sustainable employment. How does the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s monetary policy influence the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decides the appropriate level of the Official Cash Rate (OCR) according to its objectives. When inflation is above target, the bank will attempt to tame it by raising its key OCR, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money and thus cooling the economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. Why does the Reserve Bank of New Zealand care about employment? Employment is important for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) because a tight labor market can fuel inflation. The RBNZ’s goal of “maximum sustainable employment” is defined as the highest use of labor resources that can be sustained over time without creating an acceleration in inflation. “When employment is at its maximum sustainable level, there will be low and stable inflation. However, if employment is above the maximum sustainable level for too long, it will eventually cause prices to rise more and more quickly, requiring the MPC to raise interest rates to keep inflation under control,” the bank says. What is Quantitative Easing (QE)? In extreme situations, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) can enact a monetary policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the RBNZ prints local currency and uses it to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions with the aim to increase the domestic money supply and spur economic activity. QE usually results in a weaker New Zealand Dollar (NZD). QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objectives of the central bank. The RBNZ used it during the Covid-19 pandemic.

00:11 Philippines: Inflation forecast lifted as BSP seen on hold – UOB
UOB economists Julia Goh and Loke Siew Ting report that Philippine headline inflation jumped above the BSP target in March, driven by higher transport, electricity and food costs and a weaker Philippine Peso (PHP).

UOB economists Julia Goh and Loke Siew Ting report that Philippine headline inflation jumped above the BSP target in March, driven by higher transport, electricity and food costs and a weaker Philippine Peso (PHP). They have raised its 2026 inflation forecast and still expects the central bank of the Philippines, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) to keep its policy rate at 4.25% on 23 April and through 1Q27.Higher CPI and steady BSP outlook"Given the duration and severity of the Middle East conflict remain uncertain while the Philippines’ economy is still recovering from the fallout of public works-related scandals, we believe BSP will likely look through supply-driven inflation pressures and prioritise sustaining domestic growth momentum and jobs in the immediate term.""At its off-cycle Monetary Board meeting on 26 Mar, the BSP acknowledged the limited effectiveness of monetary policy in addressing supply-side inflation, signalling a shift toward monitoring potential second-round effects, with core inflation guiding near-term policy decisions.""Against this backdrop, we continue to expect the BSP to keep its policy rate unchanged at 4.25% at the 23 Apr meeting.""Reflecting the sharper-than-expected increase in Mar inflation and the prolonged disruptions stemming from the Middle East conflict, we now raise our full-year 2026 inflation forecast to 5.5% (from 3.0% previously; BSP est: 5.1%; 2025: 1.7%). Year-ago low base effects and an expected continued weakness in the PHP are likely to further amplify inflationary pressures.""In the near term, non-monetary interventions by the national government—particularly to contain prices of essential food items, electricity, and public transport—will be critical to keeping inflation in check. Beyond declaring a national energy emergency and rolling out a series of mitigation measures in recent weeks, the government is also considering a temporary suspension of fuel excise taxes, a review of airport-related charges, and the diversification of oil supply sources."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

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Forex News Timeline

16:29 USD: Iran-driven swings point to shallow depreciation – OCBC OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong stress that markets are being driven almost entirely by Iran headlines, with Oil and yields reacting to ceasefire developments.

16:15 Fed Minutes to offer insights into March hold decision amid hawkish outlook The Federal Reserve (Fed) will publish its Minutes from the March 18 meeting on Wednesday. The release should be less about the decision itself and more about the officials’ “no rush to cut” narrative.

16:06 Copper: From laggard to potential outperformer – Commerzbank Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen notes Copper has turned into a top performer after being one of the weakest metals, pressured by rising LME stocks and mixed supply news.

15:35 USD/BRL: Targets 5.55 by end-2026 – Rabobank Rabobank economists Mauricio Une and Renan Alves note that the Dollar (USD) closed last week at 5.1573, with the Brazilian Real (BRL) appreciating 1.6% over the week, ranking among the top emerging-market performers.

15:21 Gold climbs as US-Iran ceasefire weighs on US Dollar Gold (XAU/USD) climbs toward three-week highs on Wednesday after the United States and Iran reached a temporary two-week ceasefire agreement, offering relief to markets following days of escalating tensions.

15:06 Oil: Prices slump below $100 on ceasefire – ING ING’s commodities team of Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson report that Oil prices have dropped sharply, with Brent and WTI falling well below $100 as a US–Iran two‑week ceasefire eases supply disruption fears.

15:02 USD: Relief-driven downside potential – BBH Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that the US-Iran ceasefire has pushed financial markets into relief mode, with Brent, equities and bonds reacting positively and the Dollar falling sharply.

15:01 Mexico Consumer Confidence dipped from previous 44.5 to 44.1 in March Mexico Consumer Confidence dipped from previous 44.5 to 44.1 in March

15:00 Mexico Consumer Confidence s.a: 44.1 (March) vs previous 44.4 Mexico Consumer Confidence s.a: 44.1 (March) vs previous 44.4

14:54 UK: PMI inflation surge clouds outlook – MUFG MUFG’s Head of Research Derek Halpenny underlines that United Kingdom (UK) PMI Services and Composite data show a larger downturn than in Europe, with a record jump in input prices driven by energy concerns.

14:44 NZD/USD rallies to near 0.5850 amid risk-on mood, RBNZ’s hawkish remarks The NZD/USD pair is up 1.6% to near 0.5830 in the European trading session on Wednesday.

14:39 EUR: Supported with firmer data and ceasefire – BNY BNY's Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage notes Eurozone producer prices fell on energy weakness while ex‑energy pressures stayed positive, and retail sales showed modest annual growth despite monthly softness.

14:38 US President Trump: Talking tariff and sanctions relief with Iran United States (US) President Donald Trump said on Truth Social on Wednesday that the US will work closely with Iran through a "very productive regime change."

14:15 NZD: RBNZ tightening bias and earlier hike risk – TD Securities TD Securities analysts review the latest Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decision, noting the cash rate was held at 2.25% while inflation forecasts were revised sharply higher for Q1 and Q2.

14:00 AUD/USD eases below 0.7050 as the market digests the ceasefire in Iran The Australian Dollar (AUD) is trading higher against the US Dollar (USD) for the third consecutive day on Wednesday, boosted by investors’ optimism about the ceasefire in Iran.

14:00 United States MBA Mortgage Applications up to -0.8% in April 3 from previous -10.4% United States MBA Mortgage Applications up to -0.8% in April 3 from previous -10.4%

13:12 USD/CHF Price Forecast: Bearish momentum gains traction below 0.7900 The US Dollar (USD) accelerated its reversal against the Swiss Franc (CHF) on Wednesday, as investors pared back US Dollar long positions following the announcement of a ceasefire in Iran.

12:57 EUR: Peace breather and ECB expectations support – Commerzbank Commerzbank notes that the Dollar is selling off as risk sentiment improves, with the Euro rising close to 1.17 against the Dollar following the ceasefire news.

12:37 Gold: Ceasefire lifts prices as traders watch Hormuz – DBS DBS Group Research’s Eugene Leow notes that Gold surged over 2% to above USD4800 after a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran reduced immediate escalation risks.

12:35 Germany 10-y Bond Auction increased to 2.92% from previous 2.89% Germany 10-y Bond Auction increased to 2.92% from previous 2.89%

12:31 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $76.91 per troy ounce, up 5.38% from the $72.98 it cost on Tuesday.

12:30 EUR/USD Price Forecast: Posts fresh monthly high around 1.1700 The EUR/USD pair trades 0.75% higher to near 1.1700 during the European trading session on Wednesday. The major currency pair strengthens as the US Dollar (USD) underperforms amid an upbeat market mood.

12:24 NZD/USD: Hawkish RBNZ supports upside – BBH Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad highlights that NZD/USD has surged over 2% on improved risk sentiment and a hawkish hold from the RBNZ.

12:06 India: RBI seen on prolonged hold – UOB UOB’s Jester Koh notes that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept the policy repo rate at 5.25% in April 2026 and retained a neutral stance.

12:05 Eurozone Retail Sales decline 0.2% MoM in February, as expected Eurozone Retail Sales, a key measure of consumer spending, decline by 0.2% month-on-month (MoM) in February, as expected, slower than 0.1% in January.

12:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) above expectations (1.6%) in February: Actual (1.7%) Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) above expectations (1.6%) in February: Actual (1.7%)

12:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index (YoY) in line with expectations (-3%) in February Eurozone Producer Price Index (YoY) in line with expectations (-3%) in February

12:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) meets expectations (-0.2%) in February Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) meets expectations (-0.2%) in February

12:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index (MoM) meets forecasts (-0.7%) in February Eurozone Producer Price Index (MoM) meets forecasts (-0.7%) in February

11:35 DXY: Retreat extends but floor holds – ING ING’s Chris Turner notes that risk assets are rebounding after the Iran ceasefire, with higher equities, a bullish steepening in yield curves and broad currency gains against the US Dollar (USD).

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global Construction PMI above forecasts (43.9) in March: Actual (45.6) United Kingdom S&P Global Construction PMI above forecasts (43.9) in March: Actual (45.6)

10:47 GBP/JPY Price Analysis: Pound hits resistance in the 212.80 area The Pound (GBP) maintains its near.-term nullish bias against the Japanese Yen (JPY) intact, although bulls have been halted at the 212.80 area earlier on the day.

10:13 S&P 500: Futures rebound on Hormuz ceasefire – Deutsche Bank Deutsche Bank analysts report a strong recovery in S&P 500 futures after the US–Iran two-week ceasefire announcement and easing war fears. Futures are now less than 2% below pre-strike levels and well above the late-March lows.

10:09 Silver Price Forecasts: XAG/USD returns above $77 as the US Dollar tumbles Silver rallies on risk-on markets and reaches session highs above $77.00.

10:01 Switzerland Unemployment Rate s.a (MoM) remains unchanged at 3% in March Switzerland Unemployment Rate s.a (MoM) remains unchanged at 3% in March

09:51 Oil: Prices slide on fragile ceasefire and flow risks – Danske Bank Danske Research Team reports that Brent crude fell as low as USD 92 per barrel after the US-Iran ceasefire, with Oil dropping below USD 100 as risk sentiment improved.

09:49 GBP/USD Price Forecast: Reclaims two-week high around 1.3445 as sentiment improves The Pound Sterling surges against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday as the market sentiment turns favorable for riskier assets, is up 1% to near 1.3445 during the early European session.

09:46 France Imports, EUR rose from previous €55.3B to €57.791B in February France Imports, EUR rose from previous €55.3B to €57.791B in February

09:46 France Exports, EUR declined to €52.013B in February from previous €53.4B France Exports, EUR declined to €52.013B in February from previous €53.4B

09:46 France Trade Balance EUR below expectations (€-2.3B) in February: Actual (€-5.778B) France Trade Balance EUR below expectations (€-2.3B) in February: Actual (€-5.778B)

09:45 France Imports, EUR increased to €57.8B in February from previous €55.3B France Imports, EUR increased to €57.8B in February from previous €55.3B

09:45 France Current Account dipped from previous €2.1B to €-1.8B in February France Current Account dipped from previous €2.1B to €-1.8B in February

09:45 France Trade Balance EUR came in at €-5.8B below forecasts (€-2.3B) in February France Trade Balance EUR came in at €-5.8B below forecasts (€-2.3B) in February

09:45 France Exports, EUR down to €52B in February from previous €53.4B France Exports, EUR down to €52B in February from previous €53.4B

09:41 Forex Today: Risk flows dominate as US and Iran agree to two-week ceasefire Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, April 8:

09:20 EUR/USD nears 1.1700 as markets welcome the ceasefire in Iran The announcement of a two-week ceasefire in Iran triggered a relief rally during Wednesday’s Asian trading session that sent the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) tumbling against its main peers.

09:01 Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) declined to 3.5% in February from previous 3.7% Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) declined to 3.5% in February from previous 3.7%

09:01 United Kingdom Halifax House Prices (MoM) came in at -0.5% below forecasts (0.1%) in March United Kingdom Halifax House Prices (MoM) came in at -0.5% below forecasts (0.1%) in March

09:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) came in at 0.9% below forecasts (2%) in February Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) came in at 0.9% below forecasts (2%) in February

07:46 Asian stocks surge on US-Iran ceasefire news; Nikkei 225 and Kospi jump over 5% Asian equity markets rallied on Wednesday, tracking US stock index futures, in reaction to the US-Iran ceasefire news, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 and South Korea’s Kospi rising over 5% intraday.

07:35 India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data Gold prices rose in India on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

07:33 India RBI Interest Rate Decision (Repo Rate) in line with expectations (5.25%) India RBI Interest Rate Decision (Repo Rate) in line with expectations (5.25%)

07:30 India Reverse Repo Rate remains unchanged at 3.35% India Reverse Repo Rate remains unchanged at 3.35%

07:03 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD bulls now await acceptance above $77.00/200-EMA on H4 Silver (XAG/USD) retreats slightly from the weekly high set earlier during the Asian session this Wednesday and currently trades just below mid- $76.00s, still up over 4.5% for the day.

07:02 Japanese Yen surges against US Dollar as Trump confirms two-week ceasefire The Japanese Yen (JPY) trades significantly higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, with the USD/JPY pair sliding 0.75% to near 158.40 during the Asian trading session.

06:53 Indonesia Foreign Reserves: $148.2 (March) vs previous $151.9 Indonesia Foreign Reserves: $148.2 (March) vs previous $151.9

06:48 Gold eases from three-week top, holds near $4,800 as US-Iran ceasefire pressures USD Gold (XAU/USD) builds on the previous day's bounce from the $4,600 neighborhood and scales higher for the second straight day, hitting a nearly three-week peak during the Asian session on Wednesday.

06:27 AUD/USD Price Forecast: Aims to revisit multi-year high of 0.7190 The AUD/USD pair surges 1.2% to near 0.7060 in the Asian trading session on Wednesday.

05:27 AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Gains momentum, bullish bias prevails above 100-day EMA The AUD/JPY cross gathers strength to around 111.80 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges higher against the Japanese Yen (JPY) amid improved risk sentiment.

05:13 AUD/NZD edges lower toward 1.2150 as RBNZ keeps OCR unchanged AUD/NZD trades around 1.2170 during the Asian hours on Wednesday, halting its winning streak that began on March 30.

05:00 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision meets forecasts (2.25%) New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision meets forecasts (2.25%)

04:44 White House: Considering in-person talks with Iran but not been finalised White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt clarified that talks with Iran have not been finalized after the latter said it agreed to talks with the United States (US) to begin Friday in Pakistan.

04:35 EUR/JPY trades near 185.00 after losing recent gains EUR/JPY offers its daily gains, trading around 185.10 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The currency cross trims intraday gains as the Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens on falling oil prices after the US-Iran ceasefire.

04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8680 vs. 6.8854 previous The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Wednesday at 6.8680 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.8854 and 6.8369 Reuters estimate.

04:09 US Dollar Index softens to near 99.00 as Trump agrees to two-week ceasefire, FOMC Minutes loom The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, currently trades near 99.05 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday.

03:53 USD/CHF hangs near two-week low, around 0.7900 as US-Iran ceasefire triggers USD sell-off The USD/CHF pair attracts heavy selling during the Asian session on Wednesday and dives to a two-week low amid a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD).

03:26 Canadian Dollar gathers strength as Trump suspends US attacks The USD/CAD pair declines to around 1.3835 during the early Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The US Dollar (USD) weakens against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) after Iran agrees to a two-week ceasefire with the United States (US).

03:25 Iran continues attacks in the Middle East and on Israel, despite the ceasefire Despite the United States (US) and Iran agreeing to a ceasefire for two weeks, Iranian attacks continue in the Middle East and on Israel as missile alerts keep sounding.

03:24 Japan Trade Balance - BOP Basis dipped from previous ¥3145B to ¥2709B in February Japan Trade Balance - BOP Basis dipped from previous ¥3145B to ¥2709B in February

03:24 Japan Trade Balance - BOP Basis declined to ¥2.709B in February from previous ¥3145B Japan Trade Balance - BOP Basis declined to ¥2.709B in February from previous ¥3145B

03:22 Silver rallies to fresh weekly high, above $77.00 as USD plummets on US-Iran ceasefire Silver (XAG/USD) rallies to a fresh weekly high during the Asian session on Wednesday, with bulls now looking to build on the momentum beyond the $77.00 mark amid a broad-based US Dollar (USD) selloff.

02:51 GBP/USD surges toward 1.3400 as Iran ceasefire deflates the US Dollar GBP/USD ripped higher on Tuesday as the US Dollar buckled under a wave of risk-on positioning triggered by President Trump's announcement of a two-week ceasefire with Iran.

02:50 Japan Current Account n.s.a. below forecasts (¥3549B) in February: Actual (¥3.933B) Japan Current Account n.s.a. below forecasts (¥3549B) in February: Actual (¥3.933B)

02:43 Iran’s Foreign Minister: Safe passage of Hormuz will be possible for two weeks Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, said on Tuesday that safe passage of Hormuz will be possible for two weeks. This statement came after US President Donald Trump agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran.

02:30 Iran confirms US negotiations, says ceasefire hinges on finalising 10-point proposal An Iranian official stated that it has accepted a two-week ceasefire after US President Donald Trump said he would suspend attacks, subject to Tehran agreeing to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

02:30 Japan Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) came in at 3.3%, above forecasts (2.7%) in February Japan Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) came in at 3.3%, above forecasts (2.7%) in February

02:17 USD/JPY retreats from 160.00 as ceasefire crushes Oil premium USD/JPY reversed sharply on Tuesday, touching a session high around 160.50 before collapsing below 159.00 to settle near 158.85.

02:15 AUD/USD surges past 0.7050 as Trump suspends Iran strikes for two weeks AUD/USD surged over 1.3% on Tuesday, rallying from around 0.6970 to trade close to 0.7060 by the close of the session.

02:15 EUR/USD climbs above 1.1650 after Trump agrees to two-week ceasefire with Iran The EUR/USD pair surges to around 1.1670 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The Euro (EUR) strengthens against the Greenback after US President Donald Trump agrees to a two-week ceasefire with Iran.