Forex News Timeline

21:24 DXY slips as hot PPI stokes stagflation fears
DXY fell about 0.2% on Friday, grinding back into 97.60 after a hotter-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) report amplified concerns that inflation is proving stickier than the Federal Reserve (Fed) would like, weighing on growth expectations and dragging the Greenback lower.

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The index has been grinding higher since bouncing off its February low near 95.60 in late January, recovering roughly 200 points in a series of higher lows, but price continues to stall each time it approaches the 98.00 area. Friday's sell-off added another failed test of that level, with a cluster of small-bodied candles and overlapping ranges over the past two weeks pointing to a market struggling to find direction.The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the PPI for final demand rose 0.5% in January, nearly double the 0.3% consensus forecast and following a downwardly revised 0.4% gain in December. Producer prices were also up 2.9% YoY. While much of the upside surprise came from trade services, a volatile category the BLS itself notes does not capture true price changes in real time, the broader message was clear: wholesale price pressures are not cooling as fast as markets had hoped. The print feeds directly into the Fed's preferred Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, and is likely to reinforce the central bank's cautious stance after holding rates at 3.50% to 3.75% in January. Minutes from that meeting showed officials divided, with several participants discussing the possibility of rate hikes if inflation stays above target. Money markets have pushed the first fully priced rate cut out to July at the earliest.Geopolitical risks are also in play. US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva have produced mixed signals, with Washington reportedly dissatisfied with progress and President Trump warning of possible military action. Separately, Trump announced plans for new 15% global tariffs after the Supreme Court struck down his earlier emergency tariff regime. Despite these risk-off undertones, the DXY is on track for a roughly 0.6% monthly gain in February, its first positive month since October, snapping a three-month losing streak.DXY daily chartTechnical Analysis:In the daily chart, Dollar Index Spot trades at 97.63. The near-term bias is mildly bullish as price holds above the 50-day exponential moving average near 97.85 while remaining capped well below the 200-day exponential moving average around 99.50, keeping the broader trend subdued. The recent rebound from sub-97.00 levels aligns with a Stochastic recovery out of oversold territory into the high 70s, signaling improving upside momentum rather than exhaustion at current levels. This configuration points to a corrective advance within a still-muted medium-term backdrop, with buyers gradually regaining control but facing overhead supply on approach to the longer-term average.Initial resistance emerges at the 98.00–98.20 area, where recent swing highs cluster ahead of the 98.80 region, which coincides with the prior consolidation zone and sits just beneath the 200-day average. A daily close above 98.80 would strengthen the bullish bias and open the way toward the psychological 99.50 region defined by the 200-day exponential moving average. On the downside, immediate support is seen around 97.40, guarding the more important 97.00 level that underpinned the latest bounce. A break below 97.00 would negate the upside bias and expose the next support zone near 96.40, where previous reaction lows would likely attract dip buyers.In the weekly chart, Dollar Index Spot trades at 97.63. The near-term bias stays mildly bearish as price holds well below the 200-week exponential moving average near 100.70, confirming a broader downtrend structure. The recent series of lower weekly closes beneath this long-term average signals persistent selling pressure on rallies. Weekly stochastic has bounced from oversold territory but remains in the lower half of its range, indicating only a modest recovery in momentum that does not yet challenge the prevailing downside bias.Initial resistance is located at last week’s high near 97.75, followed by the mid-range barrier at 98.50, where prior consolidation could cap rebounds. A sustained break above 98.50 would be needed to open the way toward the 100.00 region, aligning price closer to the 200-week EMA and softening the bearish outlook. On the downside, immediate support sits at the recent trough around 96.85, with a weekly close below this level confirming renewed downside extension toward the 95.50 area. The current configuration keeps the focus on selling into strength while price holds beneath the 98.50–100.00 resistance band.In the monthly chart, Dollar Index Spot trades at 97.64. The near-term bias on this broader timeframe is mildly bearish, as price holds below the rising 200-month exponential moving average near the mid‑96 area after failing to sustain the 108.00 region earlier in the sequence. The stochastic oscillator remains depressed in the mid‑teens, signaling lingering downside momentum after a prolonged slide from overbought readings seen when the index was above 105.00, and suggesting that recovery attempts may struggle while momentum remains weak.Initial resistance is located at the recent swing high around 99.70, where failure earlier in the sequence reinforced selling pressure, followed by the 101.50 zone and then 104.00, which align with prior closing clusters and would need to give way to ease the current downside bias. On the downside, immediate support is seen just beneath the market around 96.80, in line with the 200-month exponential moving average, with a monthly close below this level opening the way toward the 95.00 area and then the 93.50 region, where previous basing attempts emerged on this timeframe.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

20:52 India: Weak growth impulse and fiscal risks – Societe Generale
Societe Generale’s Kunal Kundu reviews India’s FY27 Union Budget, highlighting policy continuity and fiscal consolidation in a context of geopolitical strains and currency weakness.

Societe Generale’s Kunal Kundu reviews India’s FY27 Union Budget, highlighting policy continuity and fiscal consolidation in a context of geopolitical strains and currency weakness. The note flags modest allocations to employment schemes, questions execution of six focus areas, and warns that without stronger revenues, capital expenditure may again be cut to meet the 4.3% of GDP deficit target.Fiscal consolidation but capex at risk"Amid geopolitical strains, trade uncertainty, currency weakness, and investor scepticism over growth metrics, India’s FY27 Union Budget presented on 1 February 2026, emphasised policy continuity and fiscal consolidation.""Among the various announcements, focus on data centres and GCCs (Global Capability Centres) would likely provide a major tailwind to one of India’s important growth drivers as will the ramping up of support for India’s nuclear energy programme.""The budget proposed six major focus areas. However, implementation gaps remain keys areas of concern for India’s ability to meet its stated targets.""Despite a stated focus on employment since 2024, allocations for employment generation schemes have been modest – and actual spending even more so.""If the FY27 deficit target is prioritised without stronger revenues, capex could again become the adjustment lever."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

20:45 GBP/USD slips as US PPI lifts USD, Mid-east risks rise
The Pound Sterling drops some 0.10% as the Greenback gets underpinned by a hot inflation report in the US, which prompted investors to price in a less dovish Federal Reserve. Also heightened risks in the Middle East weighed in the GBP/USD pair, which trades at 1.3469 at the time of writing.

20:28 AUD/USD holds firm as US Dollar retreats despite firm PPI
The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades flat against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday as the Greenback reverses earlier gains despite stronger-than-expected US Producer Price Index (PPI) data. At the time of writing, AUD/USD is trading around 0.7112 and is on track for an eighth consecutive week of gains.

20:08 United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count dipped from previous 409 to 407
United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count dipped from previous 409 to 407

20:07 China: Policy mix guides 2026 growth path – UOB
UOB’s Ho Woei Chen expects China’s National People’s Congress to set a 2026 real GDP growth target of 4.5–5.0%, with actual growth forecast at 4.7%.

UOB’s Ho Woei Chen expects China’s National People’s Congress to set a 2026 real GDP growth target of 4.5–5.0%, with actual growth forecast at 4.7%. The report highlights a likely 2% CPI target, a fiscal deficit near 4% of GDP, more special local government and ultra-long-term treasury bonds, and modest monetary easing via a 10-bps rate cut and 50-bps RRR reduction.NPC to balance growth and stability"We expect the NPC to set a more moderate real GDP target of 4.5–5.0% for 2026, reflecting lower provincial goals, vs. ~5% targets in the past three years. Of the 31 regions, 21 lowered their growth targets compared with 2025. Guangdong – China’s largest province and premier manufacturing hub – has set a growth of 4.5-5.0% compared to ~5% in 2025. We forecast China’s real GDP growth to slow to 4.7% in 2026 from 5.0% in the last two years. Despite our expectation for slower real GDP growth, nominal growth may pick up as deflation eases.""Last year, China set the CPI target below 3% for the first time since 2004. We expect the CPI target to remain at around 2% for 2026. The actual inflation outturn has been consistently below the official target in recent years with the deviation more pronounced in the last three years. We expect the CPI inflation to rebound to 0.9% in 2026 from 0% in 2025 and the PPI to turn around to +0.2% after declining in the past three years (2025: -2.6%).""Continue implementing “a more proactive fiscal policy” and “a moderately loose monetary policy”. Fiscal deficit target is likely to be maintained at around 4% of GDP in 2026 while the quota of special local government bonds may be raised further from its record high of CNY4.4 tn in 2025 to boost support to the local infrastructure building. In addition, China may increase the issuance of its ultra-long-term special treasury bonds this year – we expect around CNY1.5 tn from CNY1.3 tn in 2025.""For the monetary policy, our base case assumption remains for a 10-bps policy rate reduction, and a 50-bps reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut this year, similar to 2025. This is likely to be frontloaded in 1H26."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

19:46 Indonesia: Inflation seen higher on base effects – DBS
DBS Group Research expects Indonesia’s February inflation to rise to 4.1% year-on-year, driven by a low base and fading one-off stimulus in administered prices. While most components should stay subdued, elevated precious metal prices are seen lifting personal care costs.

DBS Group Research expects Indonesia’s February inflation to rise to 4.1% year-on-year, driven by a low base and fading one-off stimulus in administered prices. While most components should stay subdued, elevated precious metal prices are seen lifting personal care costs. The trade surplus is forecast above $3 billion, with a recent US court ruling potentially lowering effective tariffs and supporting exports.Base effects and metals lift CPI"Inflation in February likely rose to 4.1% y/y, largely reflecting a low base from the same period last year (Feb 2025: -0.1% y/y).""The fading impact of one-off stimulus measures implemented in 1Q25 should also become evident in the administered price component, which had contracted sharply by 9% y/y a year earlier.""While most components are expected to remain subdued, elevated precious metal prices are likely to filter into the personal care segment, leading to a double-digit increase for the fifth consecutive month.""Trade data, due the same day, are expected to show the surplus remaining above $3bn.""Recent developments, including a US court ruling, may result in a modest reduction in Indonesia’s effective tariff rate, boding well for export performance going forward."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

19:13 Asia FX: Oil shock risks as US–Iran talks progress – MUFG
MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Lloyd Chan highlights that an escalation in US–Iran tensions could trigger an Oil price shock, reviving global inflation and hurting Asia’s net Oil importers.

MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Lloyd Chan highlights that an escalation in US–Iran tensions could trigger an Oil price shock, reviving global inflation and hurting Asia’s net Oil importers. He notes that during the Russia–Ukraine war, KRW, INR, PHP, and THB underperformed, while MYR and CNY fared better. Overall, Asian FX should benefit from further US rate cuts unless Oil risks materialize.Oil shock threat to Asian currencies"A breakdown in diplomacy that escalates into a prolonged Middle East conflict would raise the risk of an oil price shock, reigniting global inflation pressures and worsening the terms of trade for Asia’s net oil importers.""From an Asian FX perspective, history suggests that an oil price shock would likely trigger broad regional weakness, but with notable differentiation.""During the first two weeks of the Russia–Ukraine war in 2022, currencies such as KRW, INR, PHP, and THB underperformed, reflecting their sensitivity to higher energy import costs and risk-off flows.""In contrast, MYR outperformed on the back of rising oil prices, while CNY remained relatively resilient.""As a result, further US rate cuts would help narrow interest rate differentials, which should broadly support Asian FX, absent an adverse oil price shock."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

19:06 NZD/USD advances as US Dollar softens, supported by RBNZ growth outlook
NZD/USD trades around 0.6000 on Friday at the time of writing, up 0.19% on the day, benefiting from a modest pullback in the US Dollar (USD) amid a wait-and-see mood ahead of fresh signals on the outlook for monetary policy in the United States (US).

19:03 Dow Jones Industrial Average drops 600 points as hot PPI data rattles markets
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 600 points, or 1.15%, tumbling back below 49,000 on Friday, capping off a turbulent final trading week in February. The S&P 500 dropped around 0.7% while the Nasdaq Composite lost roughly 0.9%.

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The S&P 500 dropped around 0.7% while the Nasdaq Composite lost roughly 0.9%. All three benchmarks finished February in the red, weighed down by a combination of sticky inflation data, persistent AI disruption fears, and profit-taking in the technology sector following Nvidia's earnings earlier in the week.Hot wholesale inflation complicates the rate outlookThe Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.5% month-over-month in January, above the 0.3% Dow Jones consensus estimate and up from a revised 0.4% gain in December. More concerning was the core reading, which excludes food and energy: core PPI surged 0.8%, nearly triple the 0.3% forecast and the largest monthly jump since July. On a year-over-year basis, headline PPI held at 2.9% while core accelerated to 3.6%, both well above the Federal Reserve's (Fed) 2% target. A 2.5% spike in trade services margins drove much of the increase, with evidence of tariff-related pass-through in apparel and chemicals categories. The data matters because several PPI components feed directly into the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, with economists now estimating core PCE could have risen as much as 0.5% in January. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in roughly two 25-basis-point rate cuts for 2026, with the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on March 17-18 widely expected to result in a hold at 3.50%-3.75%.Block soars on massive AI-driven workforce reductionBlock Inc. (XYZ) surged over 23% after CEO Jack Dorsey announced the fintech company would cut more than 4K employees, slashing its headcount from over 10K to just under 6K. Dorsey framed the move as a bet on artificial intelligence transforming labor productivity, saying he expected the majority of companies to reach the same conclusion within the next year. The cuts came alongside fourth-quarter results that met expectations, with adjusted earnings per share of $0.65 on revenue of $6.25 billion. Gross profit jumped 24% year-over-year to $2.87 billion, driven by a 33% surge in Cash App gross profit. Block raised its full-year 2026 adjusted EPS outlook to $3.66, well above the $3.22 consensus. The stock traded between $51.80 and $69.52 on the session as investors digested the news.Dell jumps on AI server demand, Nvidia extends lossesDell Technologies (DELL) rallied 17.5% to around $142 after reporting fourth-quarter revenue of $33.4 billion, handily beating the $31.41 billion consensus, with a 39% year-over-year jump in sales. The standout was AI server demand — Dell closed $64 billion in AI-optimized server orders in Q4 and guided for AI server revenue to roughly double to $50 billion in fiscal 2027. The company also announced a 20% dividend hike and a $10 billion share buyback program. On the other side, Nvidia (NVDA) fell another 2.5% after Thursday's 5.5% plunge, as concerns about the sustainability of AI infrastructure spending continued to overshadow its earnings beat earlier in the week. CoreWeave (CRWV) dropped around 12% after reporting a wider-than-expected loss and EBITDA that missed the $929 million consensus, despite a massive $66.8 billion revenue backlog.Netflix walks, Paramount wins in Warner Bros. bidding warNetflix (NFLX) rose about 9% after the streaming giant declined to match Paramount Skydance's (PSKY) revised $31-per-share all-cash bid for Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD). Netflix had previously agreed to an $83 billion deal for a substantial portion of Warner Bros.' assets, but Paramount's updated $108.4 billion offer was deemed a superior proposal by the WBD board. Netflix said the deal was no longer financially attractive at the required price. Analysts viewed the withdrawal as a positive, removing a major overhang and allowing investors to refocus on Netflix's core growth story. Paramount Skydance rose around 4% while Warner Bros. Discovery slipped roughly 2%.Software sector closes out a brutal FebruaryThe broader software sector finished February as one of the worst-performing areas of the market, with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) down more than 10% for the month. Oracle (ORCL) lost 17%, Microsoft (MSFT) dropped about 15%, and Salesforce (CRM) tumbled 13% over the same period, as fears about AI disruption to traditional software business models continued to weigh on sentiment. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang pushed back on the narrative during the week, telling CNBC that markets had overestimated the threat AI poses to software companies, singling out ServiceNow (NOW) as an example. The Dow ended February up roughly 1%, while the Nasdaq Composite fell about 2.5% for the month. Gold held steady near $5,192 per ounce, on track for its seventh consecutive monthly gain, supported by falling real yields and geopolitical uncertainty.Dow Jones daily chart
Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.

18:34 UK: Data and surveys preview – Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank outlines a busy UK data calendar, expecting stronger Net Consumer Credit, a partial rebound in Mortgage Approvals to 64.5k, and unchanged PMI Manufacturing and Services at 52.0 and 53.9.

Deutsche Bank outlines a busy UK data calendar, expecting stronger Net Consumer Credit, a partial rebound in Mortgage Approvals to 64.5k, and unchanged PMI Manufacturing and Services at 52.0 and 53.9. The bank anticipates softer DMP price, wage and CPI expectations and another negative employment expectations print.Credit, PMIs, DMP and fiscal update"It's a big week ahead. Key for markets will be the Spring Statement. We will also get the final PMIs and DMP survey data. We will also get the BRC Shop Price data and the January credit release.""We expect net consumer credit to ramp up to GBP 1.7bn. Indeed, retail sales data pointed to a sizeable jump to start the year. And we expect stronger consumer spending to come partly as a result of a jump in credit. On mortgage approvals, we expect the December drop to partly unwind, with data pushing higher to 64.5k. Indeed, new buyer enquiries have picked up since December, according to the RICS survey.""Perhaps the most important survey data coming out in the week ahead will be the February DMP survey. Here, we will be watching three things. One, firms' output price expectations. We expect this to inch lower to 3.4%. Two, firms' wage growth expectations. Our models point to a small drop off here too - to 3.5%. Three, firms' CPI expectations. We see this also softening. Latest household expectations slowed in February.""And with CPI slowing, we expect firms to adjust their expectations lower - both in the near-term and medium-term. The last thing to watch will be firms' employment expectations. Another negative print seems likely in the year ahead. We will be watching this closely for any signs of improvement.""On the PMI releases, we expect no change from the flash print. We see the manufacturing PMI headline staying put at 52. And we expect the services PMI headline index to also stick at 53.9. On construction, we expect the headline data to show a steady improvement to 48.5. Elsewhere, we get the BRC Shop Price Index. After a bigger than expected bump in January, we will be watching closely how retailers continue to price discounts/promotions - particularly around food."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

18:23 Turkey: Growth resilience and inflation risks – ING
ING’s Muhammet Mercan projects Turkey’s 4Q25 GDP growth at 3.9%, implying 3.8% for 2025, underpinned by domestic demand but with some quarterly loss of momentum.

ING’s Muhammet Mercan projects Turkey’s 4Q25 GDP growth at 3.9%, implying 3.8% for 2025, underpinned by domestic demand but with some quarterly loss of momentum. He expects February inflation to remain high at 2.9% month-on-month and 31.4% year-on-year, warning that a more negative surprise could prompt the central bank to pause tightening at the March MPC meeting.Domestic demand strength versus sticky prices"We expect growth at 3.9%, translating into 3.8% growth for the entire 2025.""This implies continuing resilience in GDP amid domestic demand–driven growth, though some loss of momentum is likely on a quarterly basis.""Inflation, on the other hand, should remain high in February, as warned by the central bank, with upward pressure from food prices ahead of Ramadan.""We see the monthly figure at 2.9%, with annual inflation inching up to 31.4% from 30.7% a month ago.""A more negative surprise would lead the Bank to be more cautious and hence possibly pause at the March MPC meeting, in our view."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

18:13 EUR/USD steadies as strong US PPI data fails to lift Dollar
EUR/USD steadies on Friday, extending the range-bound price action that has defined trading so far this week. The Euro (EUR) remains relatively firm after the US Dollar (USD) failed to build on stronger-than-expected US Producer Price Index (PPI) data.

17:59 Russia Industrial Output fell from previous 3.7% to -0.8% in December
Russia Industrial Output fell from previous 3.7% to -0.8% in December

17:55 USD/JPY slips as US PPI beats expectations, BoJ tightening bolsters Yen
USD/JPY hovers around 156.00 on Friday at the time of writing, down 0.08% on the day, despite the release of stronger-than-expected US Producer Price Index (PPI) data. The move reflects a measured market reaction, with the US Dollar (USD) struggling to extend its rebound after the inflation figures.

17:48 Sweden: Gradual improvement with elevated unemployment – Nordea
Nordea’s Anna Westlund reports that Swedish employment has been rising since early 2025, with BAS and LFS data both showing a positive trend.

Nordea’s Anna Westlund reports that Swedish employment has been rising since early 2025, with BAS and LFS data both showing a positive trend. Forward-looking indicators and higher job vacancies point to strengthening labour demand, and Nordea expects unemployment to fall over the year, although it remains elevated and resource utilization in the labour market is still below normal.Employment rising but slack still evident"Employment plans have gradually improved during the second half of 2025.""Plans have dampened at the start of this year, but remain positive indicating increasing demand for labour going forward.""Overall, the labour market continues to strengthen.""Forward-looking indicators point to rising labour demand, and employment is expected to continue increasing faster than the labour force, leading to falling unemployment over the course of the year.""Regardless of the data source chosen, unemployment is elevated."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

17:14 MXN: Policy easing signals and resilient currency – Societe Generale
Societe Generale analysts note that Deputy Governor Galia Borja signaled Banxico has room to resume rate cuts, pointing to weak domestic demand, falling investment and a stronger Peso.

Societe Generale analysts note that Deputy Governor Galia Borja signaled Banxico has room to resume rate cuts, pointing to weak domestic demand, falling investment and a stronger Peso. The Mexican Peso stayed resilient despite renewed USMCA concerns and a decline in President Sheinbaum’s approval rating. Revised 4Q GDP and slightly higher mid‑February inflation were also noted.Banxico signals space for rate cuts"FX was not immune and spillover from Tech halted the upward run in carry and commodity currencies incl the ZAR, COP, CLP, MXN and AUD.""The MXN was resilient despite renewed USMCA concerns expressed by USTR Greer and a dip in President Sheinbaum’s approval rating to 56%, the lowest since taking office.""In Mexico, Deputy Governor Galia Borja indicated that Banxico has room to resume rate cuts, citing weak domestic demand, falling investment and a stronger peso.""On data front, final 4Q GDP was revised up to 0.9% qoq from 0.8% (1.8% yoy vs 1.6%) and inflation for the first half of February inched up marginally to 3.92% from 3.82%."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

17:01 Colombia National Jobless Rate: 10.9% (January) vs 8%
Colombia National Jobless Rate: 10.9% (January) vs 8%

17:01 United States Construction Spending (MoM) fell from previous 0.5% to -0.2% in November
United States Construction Spending (MoM) fell from previous 0.5% to -0.2% in November

17:00 United States Construction Spending (MoM) meets forecasts (0.3%) in December
United States Construction Spending (MoM) meets forecasts (0.3%) in December

17:00 United States Construction Spending (MoM): 0.3% (November) vs previous 0.5%
United States Construction Spending (MoM): 0.3% (November) vs previous 0.5%

16:59 Silver surges past $91 as hot PPI, tariffs stoke inflation fears
Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its gains for the third consecutive day after the latest inflation report in the United States prompted investors to seek the safety of the white metal, while the Greenback remained firm. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades near $91.39 up close to 3%.

16:45 United States Chicago PMI came in at 57.7, above forecasts (52.8) in February
United States Chicago PMI came in at 57.7, above forecasts (52.8) in February

16:43 Oil: Geopolitics keep prices supported – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Carsten Fritsch expects OPEC+ to only slightly increase Oil production from April, with Russia underproducing and Kazakhstan constrained, so a modest quota hike should not pressure prices.

Commerzbank’s Carsten Fritsch expects OPEC+ to only slightly increase Oil production from April, with Russia underproducing and Kazakhstan constrained, so a modest quota hike should not pressure prices. He highlights that US–Iran tensions and the risk of a US strike are likely to keep Oil well supported in the near term despite marginal supply increases.OPEC+ caution and US–Iran tensions"The eight OPEC+ countries with voluntary production restrictions will decide this weekend how to proceed with oil production in April. Statements from OPEC+ sources indicate that production quotas could be increased by 137,000 barrels per day. This is because the oil market is less oversupplied than expected at the beginning of the year, as a considerable portion of the oversupply is difficult to sell due to sanctions and is being stored in tankers at sea. In addition, there have been supply disruptions, such as recently in Kazakhstan.""The OPEC+ decision is complicated by the US-Iran conflict, as it is currently difficult to predict whether there will be supply disruptions and how severe they will be. This also argues in favour of a gradual expansion of production. However, this is unlikely to be fully implemented, as Russia is already producing significantly less than agreed.""The announcement of a slight increase in production by OPEC+ is therefore unlikely to weigh on oil prices.""More important for oil prices at present are the news on the conflict between the US and Iran. Although yesterday's talks did not result in a breakthrough, they were viewed positively by the mediator Oman and Iran. Another round of talks is scheduled for next week.""The continuing risk of a US military strike is therefore likely to remain the dominant issue on the oil market, which suggests that oil prices will remain well supported."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

16:40 US Dollar Index (DXY) eases despite stronger-than-expected US PPI
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, shows a limited reaction to the stronger-than-expected US Producer Price Index (PPI) data. At the time of writing, the index trades near 97.65, easing from the daily high around 97.85.

16:25 US: Jobs data and Fed timing – ING
ING’s James Knightley expects upcoming US ISM surveys to soften from January’s strength, reflecting weaker regional Federal Reserve signals.

ING’s James Knightley expects upcoming US ISM surveys to soften from January’s strength, reflecting weaker regional Federal Reserve signals. He argues the economy is truly adding about 50,000 jobs per month, with private education and healthcare dominating gains, and sees the unemployment rate edging up to 4.4%. ING still anticipates no Federal Reserve rate cut before June.Jobs breadth, ISM signals and Fed path"The ISM reports were both very robust in January, but the regional Federal Reserve surveys have painted a slightly softer picture for the economy in February, and we expect that to be reflected in the ISMs.""We believe the underlying story is that the economy is adding around 50,000 jobs per month, but that private education & healthcare services continue to be the main source of employment – accounting for around 70% of all the jobs added over the past three years.""The lack of breadth of job creation is a concern, and we expect the unemployment rate to tick back up to 4.4% after the surprise drop last month.""None of this will be enough to trigger imminent Fed rate cuts, with the next move unlikely before June, in our view.""Still, our view is that it would take quite a lot to get the Fed thinking about an imminent rate cut."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

16:14 USD/CAD holds steady as US PPI beats forecasts, Canadian GDP contracts
USD/CAD trades around 1.3680 on Friday at the time of writing, virtually unchanged on the day, as investors digest a fresh batch of macroeconomic data from the United States (US) and Canada.

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The Producer Price Index (PPI) eased to 2.9% YoY in January, down from 3% in December, according to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). However, the reading came in above market expectations of 2.6%, highlighting more persistent underlying price pressures than anticipated. On a monthly basis, the index rose by 0.5% after a revised 0.4% increase in December, while the index excluding food and energy climbed 3.6% YoY, also exceeding forecasts.Despite the firmer-than-expected figures, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the performance of the US Dollar against a basket of six major currencies, remains capped below the 98.00 mark and shows no significant reaction. This relative stability limits moves in USD/CAD, as traders appear to be waiting for clearer signals regarding the monetary policy path of the Federal Reserve (Fed).In Canada, the picture is more negative. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted at an annualized rate of 0.6% in the fourth quarter, following a revised 2.4% growth in the previous quarter, according to Statistics Canada. The consensus forecast had pointed to flat growth. On a quarterly basis, the economy declined by 0.2%, reversing the 0.6% expansion recorded in the third quarter. The statistical agency notes that annual growth was weighed down mainly by lower exports, particularly to the United States. Economic Indicator Producer Price Index (YoY) The Producer Price Index released by the Bureau of Labor statistics, Department of Labor measures the average changes in prices in primary markets of the US by producers of commodities in all states of processing. Changes in the PPI are widely followed as an indicator of commodity inflation. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish). Read more. Last release: Fri Feb 27, 2026 13:30 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 2.9% Consensus: 2.6% Previous: 3% Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Economic Indicator Gross Domestic Product Annualized The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by Statistics Canada on a monthly and quarterly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in Canada during a given period. The GDP is considered as the main measure of Canada’s economic activity. The data is expressed at an annualized rate, which means that the rate has been adjusted to reflect the amount GDP would have changed over a year’s time, had it continued to grow at that specific rate. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Canadian Dollar (CAD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Fri Feb 27, 2026 13:30 Frequency: Quarterly Actual: -0.6% Consensus: 0% Previous: 2.6% Source: Statistics Canada

16:09 AUD: Strong credit growth but policy view unchanged – BNY
BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage notes Australia’s January financial aggregates show total credit up 0.5% month-on-month and 7.7% year-on-year, with housing and business credit both accelerating on an annual basis. Broad money growth has also picked up.

BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage notes Australia’s January financial aggregates show total credit up 0.5% month-on-month and 7.7% year-on-year, with housing and business credit both accelerating on an annual basis. Broad money growth has also picked up. However, he argues these figures are unlikely to alter the Reserve Bank of Australia’s current policy stance, leaving AUD/USD modestly firmer.Credit expansion not shifting RBA stance"Australia’s financial aggregates in January showed total credit rising 0.5% m/m, easing from 0.8% in December, while the y/y rate accelerated to 7.7% from 6.5% in January last year.""Housing credit increased by 0.6% m/m and 7.0% y/y, compared with 0.7% m/m and 5.6% y/y previously.""Business credit grew 0.5% m/m, down from 1.0%, with annual growth strengthening to 9.4% from 8.9%.""Broad money expanded 0.6% m/m, up from 0.5%, and rose 7.4% y/y, compared with 5.2% a year earlier.""The figures are unlikely to change the current RBA view on policy."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

15:52 Canada GDP contracts 0.6% in Q4 vs. 0% expected
Canada's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted at an annualized rate of 0.6% (QoQ) in the fourth quarter, Statistics Canada reported on Friday. This print followed the 2.4% growth recorded in the previous quarter and came in below the market expectation of 0%.

Canada's GDP contracted in Q4 following Q3's expansion.USD/CAD remains within a tight daily trading channel below 1.3700.Canada's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted at an annualized rate of 0.6% (QoQ) in the fourth quarter, Statistics Canada reported on Friday. This print followed the 2.4% growth recorded in the previous quarter and came in below the market expectation of 0%.On a quarterly basis, GDP contracted by 0.2% after the third quarter's 0.6% expansion."Real GDP increased 1.7% in 2025, the slowest pace of annual growth since the decline in 2020. Lower exports, particularly to the United States, were the main contributor to the slower rise in GDP in 2025," the press release read.Market reactionUSD/CAD largely ignored these figures and was last seen trading unchanged on the day at 1.3680.

15:48 EUR/GBP gains mmid UK political jitters and dovish BoE bets
The Euro (EUR) ticks higher against the British Pound (GBP) on Friday, with Sterling under broad pressure as renewed political uncertainty in the United Kingdom (UK) dampens investor sentiment.

15:48 USD: Sideways trading persists on soft data backdrop – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes the US Dollar is trading sideways as a lack of policy-relevant data keeps FX ranges contained, even as S&P500 futures signal further equity weakness and Treasury yields fall below 4.00%.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes the US Dollar is trading sideways as a lack of policy-relevant data keeps FX ranges contained, even as S&P500 futures signal further equity weakness and Treasury yields fall below 4.00%. He highlights safe-haven demand, fading inflation risks, and soft domestic demand, while the Fed is seen able to stay patient on rate cuts.Fed patience as yields signal caution"USD continues to trade sideways in the absence of policy-relevant economic data releases.""Treasuries are up with the 10-year note below 4.00% for the first time since end-November 2025.""The decline in Treasury yields reflects increased safe haven demand (perhaps a hedge against the so-called AI scare trade) as breakeven inflation rates remain steady.""Fed Governor Stephen Miran reiterated his call for more aggressive rate cuts yesterday. Miran said “four cuts [100bps this year], I think, are appropriate, and I’d rather get them sooner than later.” Fed funds futures continue to fully price-in 50bps of easing by year-end, which is reasonable in our view.""Nonetheless, the Fed can afford to be patient before resuming cutting rates."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

15:39 US annual PPI inflation declines to 2.9% in January vs. 2.6% expected
Producer inflation in the United States, as measured by the change in the Producer Price Index (PPI), declined to 2.9% on a yearly basis in January from 3% in December, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday. This reading came in above the market expectation of 2.6%.

US PPI rose at a stronger pace than expected in January.US Dollar Index stays in daily range below 98.00.Producer inflation in the United States, as measured by the change in the Producer Price Index (PPI), declined to 2.9% on a yearly basis in January from 3% in December, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday. This reading came in above the market expectation of 2.6%. On a monthly basis, the PPI rose 0.5% following the 0.4% increase (revised from 0.5%) recorded in December.Other details of the report showed that the PPI ex Food & Energy was up 3.6% on a yearly basis in January, compared to the market forecast of 3%.Market reactionThe US Dollar Index showed no immediate reaction to producer inflation figures and was last seen trading marginally higher on the day at 97.82.

15:32 Gold and Silver rise as US reportedly tells embassy staff in Israel to leave now
Citing an email from Israel Ambassador Mike Huckabee, NBC News reported that some embassy staff were told that they could leave Israel and that they need to do so quickly.

Citing an email from Israel Ambassador Mike Huckabee, NBC News reported that some embassy staff were told that they could leave Israel and that they need to do so quickly."The guidance was issued out of “an abundance of caution” after meetings and calls through the night, including conversations with the State Department, Huckabee said in the email," NBC News noted and added:"He also urged anyone intending to leave to go ahead and book flights, citing the likely surge in demand out of Israel after the embassy's move."Market reactionGold and Silver rose sharply with the immediate reaction to this headline. At the time of press, Gold was trading at $5,220, rising 0.75% on the day, while Silver was up 4.3% at $92.03.

15:30 United States Producer Price Index (YoY) came in at 2.9%, above forecasts (2.6%) in January
United States Producer Price Index (YoY) came in at 2.9%, above forecasts (2.6%) in January

15:30 United States Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) came in at 3.6%, above forecasts (3%) in January
United States Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) came in at 3.6%, above forecasts (3%) in January

15:30 United States Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) above expectations (0.3%) in January: Actual (0.8%)
United States Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) above expectations (0.3%) in January: Actual (0.8%)

15:30 Canada Gross Domestic Product Annualized below expectations (0%) in 4Q: Actual (-0.6%)
Canada Gross Domestic Product Annualized below expectations (0%) in 4Q: Actual (-0.6%)

15:30 Canada Gross Domestic Product (MoM) above expectations (0.1%) in December: Actual (0.2%)
Canada Gross Domestic Product (MoM) above expectations (0.1%) in December: Actual (0.2%)

15:30 United States Producer Price Index (MoM) registered at 0.5% above expectations (0.3%) in January
United States Producer Price Index (MoM) registered at 0.5% above expectations (0.3%) in January

15:30 Canada Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) dipped from previous 0.6% to -0.2% in 4Q
Canada Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) dipped from previous 0.6% to -0.2% in 4Q

15:26 UK: Labour setback in Gorton-Denton by-election – TD Securities
TD Securities’ Global Strategy Team notes a significant setback for Labour as the Green Party’s Hannah Spencer wins the Gorton-Denton by-election with over 40% of the vote, leaving Labour third.

TD Securities’ Global Strategy Team notes a significant setback for Labour as the Green Party’s Hannah Spencer wins the Gorton-Denton by-election with over 40% of the vote, leaving Labour third. The team expects Keir Starmer to remain Prime Minister until after May local elections, but anticipates severe Labour losses could trigger a leadership change and increased internal party challenges.Green surge raises Labour leadership questions"We have a winner. Hannah Spencer of the Green Party has won the Gorton-Denton by-election with over 40% of the vote.""Labour came in third with only 25%, nearly halving their 2024 result, and behind Reform at 29%.""This outcome represents a fair setback for the Labour Party, indicating that Labour is neither the sole alternative to Reform nor the party most capable of consolidating left-leaning voters.""Nonetheless, losing safe seats in mid-term by-elections is common, and Starmer will have the opportunity to shape the party's narrative and manage his standing over the coming days.""We expect Starmer to remain Prime Minister until after the May local elections, at which point severe Labour party losses will likely force a change in leadership—and thus a new Prime Minister."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

15:11 EUR/JPY pressured lower by Yen strength, softer German inflation
EUR/JPY trades around 184.00 on Friday at the time of writing, down 0.10% on the day, marking a second straight decline. The cross is pressured by a strengthening Japanese Yen (JPY) following the release of mixed inflation data from Tokyo.

15:06 Germany annual CPI inflation declines to 1.9% in February vs. 2% expected
Inflation in Germany, as measured by the change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), softened to 1.9% on a yearly basis in February from 2.1% in January, Germany's Destatis reported in its flash estimate. This print came in below the market expectation of 2%.

15:03 Gold: Safe-haven flows offset weaker India demand – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen and Carsten Fritsch note that Gold has stabilized around USD 5,200 per troy ounce, supported by political uncertainty over US tariffs and the US–Iran conflict. ETF inflows underline safe-haven demand, while high prices are curbing physical buying in India.

Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen and Carsten Fritsch note that Gold has stabilized around USD 5,200 per troy ounce, supported by political uncertainty over US tariffs and the US–Iran conflict. ETF inflows underline safe-haven demand, while high prices are curbing physical buying in India.Tariff risks and geopolitical support"The price of gold has stabilized in recent days at around USD 5,200 per troy ounce. The previously strong price fluctuations have subsided significantly. The price of gold is being supported by geopolitical crises such as the US-Iran conflict and the war in Ukraine.""Added to this is new uncertainty about US tariff policy following the ruling by the US Supreme Court a week ago, although the major tariff chaos has so far been avoided. The fact that gold is in demand as a safe haven is reflected in the inflows into gold ETFs, which according to Bloomberg data have totaled 22 tons so far this week.""After all, it is unclear how the US government will replace reciprocal tariffs in the long term. Some trading partners, such as the EU, are likely to fear that the tariff burden could be higher than previously negotiated.""This, in turn, could lead to renewed tensions between the economic powers. The threat of escalation in the US-Iran conflict is also likely to continue to support gold.""The high price level appears to be weighing on physical gold demand in India. Traders there had to offer discounts of up to USD 65 per troy ounce on the official price this week, which was last the case 10 months ago."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

15:00 Germany Consumer Price Index (YoY) below expectations (2%) in February: Actual (1.9%)
Germany Consumer Price Index (YoY) below expectations (2%) in February: Actual (1.9%)

15:00 Russia Central Bank Reserves $ down to $797.2B from previous $806.1B
Russia Central Bank Reserves $ down to $797.2B from previous $806.1B

15:00 Germany Consumer Price Index (MoM) registered at 0.2%, below expectations (0.5%) in February
Germany Consumer Price Index (MoM) registered at 0.2%, below expectations (0.5%) in February

15:00 Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) below forecasts (0.5%) in February: Actual (0.4%)
Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) below forecasts (0.5%) in February: Actual (0.4%)

15:00 Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) came in at 2% below forecasts (2.1%) in February
Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) came in at 2% below forecasts (2.1%) in February

14:37 DXY: Stable range as metals decouple – BNY
BNY's Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage highlights that the U.S. Dollar has remained in a 95–99 range even as the LME Metals Index has surged, breaking a long-standing negative correlation.

BNY's Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage highlights that the U.S. Dollar has remained in a 95–99 range even as the LME Metals Index has surged, breaking a long-standing negative correlation. He notes that the USD index’s link to Fed policy is different this cycle, with fewer 2026 rate cuts priced, while ongoing FX hedging demand and risk reduction temper any strong Dollar rally.Correlation break with LME metals"The negative correlation between the U.S. dollar and the LME Metals Index is long-standing and significant.""What stands out is when that correlation breaks, as it has in 2026.""The U.S. dollar has traded in a 95 to 99 range while metals prices have surged – a divergence not seen since COVID.""Scarcity and stockpiling now explain more of the price action than real-rate valuation dynamics.""The USD index’s link to Fed policy also differs this cycle, with investors pricing fewer 2026 rate cuts.""However, the dollar has not rallied back, suggesting that ongoing FX hedging demand still plays a significant role. FX risk reduction and supply-chain concerns suggest global investors fear broader financial instability more than a panic USD collapse."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

14:14 USD/CAD: Range seen intact above 1.3600 – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman's (BBH) Elias Haddad notes USD/CAD is directionless around 1.3675 ahead of Canada’s Q4 GDP release, with consensus expecting a modest contraction versus the Bank of Canada’s stall forecast.

Brown Brothers Harriman's (BBH) Elias Haddad notes USD/CAD is directionless around 1.3675 ahead of Canada’s Q4 GDP release, with consensus expecting a modest contraction versus the Bank of Canada’s stall forecast. Haddad argues easing core inflation allows the BOC to keep rates steady, and he expects USD/CAD to hold above 1.3600 near term with resistance at 1.3800.BOC steady stance underpins range trade"USD/CAD is directionless around 1.3675.""The Bank of Canada (BOC) estimates real GDP growth to stall after rising 2.6% SAAR in Q3 because of inventory destocking. Consensus is more downbeat with a -0.2% SAAR decline in Q4 penciled in. ""The BOC is in good position to keep the policy rate on hold at 2.25% for some time as core inflation pressures have eased and tracking the bank’s projection.""The swaps curve price-in steady rates over the next twelve months.""USD/CAD will likely hold above 1.3600 in the near term, with resistance offered at 1.3800 (the 200-day moving average)."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

14:06 Gold consolidates below $5,200 as traders weigh geopolitics, Fed rate outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) consolidates with mild losses on Friday, as momentum stalls within this week’s established range.

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The metal is showing little directional conviction, with traders balancing lingering geopolitical tensions against shifting expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy path.At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $5,177, as bears continue to defend the $5,200 handle. Despite Friday's slight retreat, Gold looks set to post a fourth consecutive week of gains. No news from GenevaThe third round of indirect US-Iran nuclear talks ended in Geneva on Thursday without any meaningful progress, with Washington increasing its military deployment in the region. The possibility of military action remains well alive, supporting safe-haven demand and limiting Gold’s downside.Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi described the latest round of talks as “good.” “These were the most serious and longest talks,” he said, adding that further technical discussions will be held next week in Vienna.Markets increasingly doubt a Fed rate cut in JuneOn the monetary policy front, markets are nearly certain that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at its March and April meetings, while trimming bets also on a June rate cut as policymakers continue to stress that inflation must show clearer signs of cooling before lowering rates.This repricing of rate-cut expectations, with a hold now expected also in June, weighs on Gold and lends support to the US Dollar (USD), capping gains in XAU/USD.Market sentiment has also been dampened by renewed uncertainty surrounding US trade policy. Trade tensions intensified earlier this week after a fresh 10% global tariff took effect, just days after the US Supreme Court ruled against the Trump administration’s earlier use of emergency powers to impose tariffs.Against this backdrop of fading rate-cut expectations and ongoing Middle East tensions, Gold may continue to trade within a narrow range in the near term. The US Producer Price Index (PPI) data at 13:30 GMT could drive short-term moves in XAU/USD before the trading week ends.The broader outlook for Gold remains tilted to the upside, with the metal on track for a seventh straight monthly gain, supported by steady central bank buying, solid ETF inflows, and persistent geopolitical and economic uncertainty.Technical analysis: XAU/USD trades sideways as momentum coolsThe near-term bias remains mildly bullish to neutral on the 4-hour chart, as price continues to hold comfortably above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $5,039.Immediate support is seen around $5,140, aligning closely with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $5,141, measured from the $4,402 low to the the $5,598 all-time high. The 100-period SMA at $5,038 reinforces a stronger support zone beneath. A sustained break below $5,038 could expose the 50% retracement at $5,000 and weaken the current bullish structure.On the upside, initial resistance is located in the $5,200-$5,250 region, followed by the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $5,342. Rejection near $5,342 would suggest fading upside momentum, while a decisive break above this level could open the door toward the $5,598 peak.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has eased to 55, retreating from overbought territory above 70, indicating cooling but still positive momentum rather than outright exhaustion. The Average Directional Index (ADX) around 17 signals a weak trend environment, so upside progress would depend on fresh buying interest rather than strong trend continuation. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

14:03 Mexico Trade Balance s/a, $ fell from previous $-0.86B to $-1.248B in January
Mexico Trade Balance s/a, $ fell from previous $-0.86B to $-1.248B in January

14:01 South Africa Trade Balance (in Rands) fell from previous 23.18B to 9.31B in January
South Africa Trade Balance (in Rands) fell from previous 23.18B to 9.31B in January

14:00 Mexico Trade Balance, $ registered at $-6.481B, below expectations ($-2.2B) in January
Mexico Trade Balance, $ registered at $-6.481B, below expectations ($-2.2B) in January

14:00 Brazil Mid-month Inflation came in at 0.84%, above expectations (0.6%) in February
Brazil Mid-month Inflation came in at 0.84%, above expectations (0.6%) in February

13:53 Japanese Yen gives back half of early gains against USD ahead of US PPI data
The Japanese Yen (JPY) surrenders half of its early gains against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Friday. The USD/JPY pair rebounds to near 155.90 as the JPY falls back, but is still 0.15% down.

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0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover 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p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Japanese Yen gives up half of its early gains against the US Dollar as the former struggles to hold gains.Soft Tokyo CPI and the nomination of two new BoJ board members are capping the Yen.Investors await the US PPI data for fresh cues on the Fed’s monetary policy outlook.The Japanese Yen (JPY) surrenders half of its early gains against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Friday. The USD/JPY pair rebounds to near 155.90 as the JPY falls back, but is still 0.15% down. Japanese Yen Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the weakest against the Swiss Franc. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.00% 0.13% -0.11% -0.06% 0.04% 0.05% -0.20% EUR -0.00% 0.12% -0.13% -0.05% 0.04% 0.05% -0.20% GBP -0.13% -0.12% -0.27% -0.18% -0.08% -0.07% -0.32% JPY 0.11% 0.13% 0.27% 0.09% 0.18% 0.18% -0.07% CAD 0.06% 0.05% 0.18% -0.09% 0.09% 0.09% -0.14% AUD -0.04% -0.04% 0.08% -0.18% -0.09% 0.01% -0.24% NZD -0.05% -0.05% 0.07% -0.18% -0.09% -0.01% -0.26% CHF 0.20% 0.20% 0.32% 0.07% 0.14% 0.24% 0.26% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote). Japanese currency struggles to hold gains amid growing concerns over speculation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates in the near term.Hawkish BoJ prospects have come under pressure, following the entry of two new officials into the central bank’s nine-member board, and signs of easing price pressures.Earlier this week, the administration announced the nomination of two members: Toichiro Asada and Ayano Sato for the BoJ’s board, at times when a report from Mainichi daily showed that Japan's Prime Minister (PM) Sanae Takaichi’s comments in meeting with Governor Kazuo Ueda on February 16 were in contrast to tightening monetary policy in the near term.Earlier in the day, the data showed that Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) ex. Fresh Food growth cooled down to 1.8% Year-on-Year (YoY) from 2% in January, but remained higher than estimates of 1.7%.Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) trades broadly calm ahead of the United States (US) Producer Price Index (PPI) data for January, which will be published at 13:30 GMT. During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades flat around 97.75.Investors will pay close attention to the US PPI data to get fresh cues on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook. Economic Indicator Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) The Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Statistics Bureau of Japan on a monthly basis, measures the price fluctuation of goods and services purchased by households in the Tokyo region excluding fresh food, whose prices often fluctuate depending on the weather. The index is widely considered as a leading indicator of Japan’s overall CPI as it is published weeks before the nationwide reading. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Japanese Yen (JPY), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Thu Feb 26, 2026 23:30 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 1.8% Consensus: 1.7% Previous: 2% Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan

13:47 USD: Fed on hold as core PCE surprises higher – Nordea
Jan von Gerich at Nordea notes that US data flow has been light, but a December upside surprise in core PCE suggests price pressures may be easing more slowly than CPI implies.

Jan von Gerich at Nordea notes that US data flow has been light, but a December upside surprise in core PCE suggests price pressures may be easing more slowly than CPI implies. He argues this supports the Federal Reserve staying on hold, and Nordea does not expect further rate cuts even after Kevin Warsh replaces Jerome Powell.Sticky inflation backs steady Fed policy"Late last week, there was an upside surprise in the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the core PCE, and though the data were for the month of December compared to the latest CPI figure for January, price pressures may not be falling quite as rapidly as suggested by the CPI data, which will support the Fed on hold for now.""The Fed took a more balanced stance towards the labour market risks already at the January meeting and can afford to retain a wait-and-see attitude for now.""We do not expect any further cuts from the central bank, including when Kevin Warsh is set to take over from Jerome Powell.""Risks remain tilted towards further rate cuts, though."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

13:30 India FX Reserves, USD dipped from previous $725.73B to $723.61B in February 16
India FX Reserves, USD dipped from previous $725.73B to $723.61B in February 16

13:28 Canada: Q4 GDP contraction, brighter Q1 – TD Securities
TD Securities’ Global Strategy Team forecasts Canadian real GDP to contract by 0.4% annualized in Q4, driven by weaker domestic demand, falling household goods consumption and softer housing activity, partly offset by government spending and net exports.

TD Securities’ Global Strategy Team forecasts Canadian real GDP to contract by 0.4% annualized in Q4, driven by weaker domestic demand, falling household goods consumption and softer housing activity, partly offset by government spending and net exports. However, the bank expects a 0.2% gain in December GDP and continued 0.1–0.2% growth in January, setting a firmer base for Q1.Q4 softness but Q1 outlook improves"We look for real GDP to contract by 0.4% q/q (saar) in Q4 National Accounts, led by further weakness in domestic demand.""Household goods consumption should see its second consecutive decline after the 2.0% contraction in Q3, alongside a modest increase for services, while softer housing activity contributes to another drag from residential investment.""Government spending should provide the main source of strength in Q4, along with a positive contribution from net exports.""Growth conditions look considerably brighter for December's industry-level GDP where we look for a 0.2% advance underpinned by strength in services.""We also look for new flash estimates to show continued strength (0.1%-0.2%) in January, which would help put Q1 GDP on a stronger footing."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

13:21 When is the US PPI data for January and how could it affect EUR/USD?
The United States (US) Producer Price Index (PPI) data for January is due for release today at 13:30 GMT.

13:05 EUR/GBP: Recovery builds above 200‑DMA – Societe Generale
Societe Generale analysts note that EUR/GBP has rebounded from an interim low near 0.8610 and quickly reclaimed its 200‑DMA, suggesting limited downside momentum.

Societe Generale analysts note that EUR/GBP has rebounded from an interim low near 0.8610 and quickly reclaimed its 200‑DMA, suggesting limited downside momentum. The cross is trying to break the upper end of its recent range, with the analysts flagging 0.8770 and the 0.8820/0.8865 November highs as upside objectives if the 200‑DMA near 0.8670 holds.Cross eyes range break and November highs"EUR/GBP has staged a rebound after forming an interim low near 0.8610 earlier in February.""Although it briefly dipped below the 200‑DMA, the swift recovery above this MA signals a lack of sustained downside momentum.""The pair is now attempting to cross the upper boundary of its recent range.""Defence of the 200‑DMA near 0.8670 could lead to continuation in up move.""The next objectives are located at projections of 0.8770, followed by the November highs at 0.8820/0.8865."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

13:00 Portugal Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) came in at 0.9%, above expectations (0.8%) in 4Q
Portugal Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) came in at 0.9%, above expectations (0.8%) in 4Q

13:00 Portugal Gross Domestic Product (YoY) in line with forecasts (1.9%) in 4Q
Portugal Gross Domestic Product (YoY) in line with forecasts (1.9%) in 4Q

13:00 Ireland Retail Sales (MoM) up to 1.5% in January from previous -0.4%
Ireland Retail Sales (MoM) up to 1.5% in January from previous -0.4%

13:00 Ireland Retail Sales (YoY) increased to 3% in January from previous -0.1%
Ireland Retail Sales (YoY) increased to 3% in January from previous -0.1%

12:48 USD/CHF declines as Swiss Franc strengthens on geopolitical risks, trade concerns
USD/CHF trades around 0.7730 on Friday at the time of writing, down 0.21% on the day, after posting modest gains in the previous session. The pair weakens as the Swiss Franc (CHF) attracts safe-haven flows amid renewed geopolitical tensions and persistent uncertainty surrounding global trade.

12:42 EUR/USD Price Forecast: 20-day EMA continues to act as key barrier
The EUR/USD pair trades flat around 1.1800 during the European trading session on Friday. The major currency pair consolidates as the US Dollar (USD) wobbles ahead of the United States (US) Producer Price Index (PPI) data for January, which will be published at 13:30 GMT.

12:42 India Federal Fiscal Deficit, INR: 9814.07B (January) vs 8558.42B
India Federal Fiscal Deficit, INR: 9814.07B (January) vs 8558.42B

12:31 India Gross Domestic Product Quarterly (YoY) came in at 7.8%, above forecasts (7.2%) in 4Q
India Gross Domestic Product Quarterly (YoY) came in at 7.8%, above forecasts (7.2%) in 4Q

12:01 Greece Producer Price Index (YoY) dipped from previous -2.1% to -3.7% in January
Greece Producer Price Index (YoY) dipped from previous -2.1% to -3.7% in January

12:01 Italy Trade Balance non-EU dipped from previous €8.385B to €2.124B in January
Italy Trade Balance non-EU dipped from previous €8.385B to €2.124B in January

12:01 Belgium Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) below forecasts (0.2%) in 4Q: Actual (0.1%)
Belgium Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) below forecasts (0.2%) in 4Q: Actual (0.1%)

11:59 Greece Retail Sales (YoY) up to 5.1% in December from previous 0.3%
Greece Retail Sales (YoY) up to 5.1% in December from previous 0.3%

11:57 Eurozone: Inflation path keeps ECB comfortable – ING
ING’s Bert Colijn notes Eurozone inflation fell to 1.7% in January on energy base effects and is expected to stay just under 2% through 2026, with core at 2.2% and close to target.

ING’s Bert Colijn notes Eurozone inflation fell to 1.7% in January on energy base effects and is expected to stay just under 2% through 2026, with core at 2.2% and close to target. He says this leaves the European Central Bank in a good position, with little change expected in February data and unemployment still hovering near record lows.Stable prices and tight labour conditions"Inflation dropped to 1.7% in January, which was in line with expectations due to energy price base effects.""Essentially, this was not much of a surprise as inflation is widely expected to remain just under 2% for most of 2026.""Core inflation at 2.2% is now also more in line with the target as well, leaving the European Central Bank in a 'good place’ for now.""Don’t expect much change in February, although higher energy prices could push up headline inflation.""So far, the eurozone unemployment rate continues to hover around all-time lows despite vacancy rates normalising somewhat."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

11:30 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Friday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $89.64 per troy ounce, up 0.90% from the $88.84 it cost on Thursday.

11:27 Fed: AI-driven rate cut strategy questioned – Commerzbank
Commerzbank's senior economists Bernd Weidensteiner and Dr. Christoph Balz discuss designated Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh’s plan to justify significant interest rate cuts by citing artificial intelligence as a new deflationary force.

Commerzbank's senior economists Bernd Weidensteiner and Dr. Christoph Balz discuss designated Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh’s plan to justify significant interest rate cuts by citing artificial intelligence as a new deflationary force. They argue AI’s productivity impact remains uncertain, while today’s macro backdrop is less disinflationary than in the 1990s, so aggressive easing could leave US monetary policy too expansionary and heighten inflation risks into 2027.Warsh’s AI rationale for Fed easing"The designated chair of the Federal Reserve Board, Kevin Warsh, expects artificial intelligence to curb inflation and drive growth, similar to what information technology did in the years around the turn of the millennium. With these hopes for a return of the New Economy, he wants to push through significant interest rate cuts at the Fed.""Donald Trump has made it clear that he expects Kevin Warsh, the designated chair of the Federal Reserve Board, to cut interest rates significantly as soon as he takes the helm at the Fed in May. However, finding serious reasons for this is not easy given an inflation rate of around 3% and a relatively low unemployment rate.""Warsh will likely use the growing influence of artificial intelligence (AI) on the US economy as his main argument. In an opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal in November, Warsh wrote: “AI will be a significant deflationary force, increasing productivity and strengthening US competitiveness.”""If the designated Fed chairman Kevin Warsh is counting on AI to solve his inflation problems, he is probably making a policy mistake. We expect him to be able to push through interest rate cuts of 100 basis points by spring 2027.""However, this will make monetary policy too expansionary and create inflation risks."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

11:21 Germany Hesse CPI (YoY) rose from previous 2.1% to 2.2% in February
Germany Hesse CPI (YoY) rose from previous 2.1% to 2.2% in February

11:21 Germany Hesse CPI (MoM) rose from previous 0% to 0.4% in February
Germany Hesse CPI (MoM) rose from previous 0% to 0.4% in February

11:12 EUR/USD: Sideways trading as tariffs reshape outlook – Nordea
Nordea’s Jan von Gerich notes that EUR/USD has traded largely sideways as markets digest the US Supreme Court ruling on tariffs and subsequent replacement levies.

Nordea’s Jan von Gerich notes that EUR/USD has traded largely sideways as markets digest the US Supreme Court ruling on tariffs and subsequent replacement levies. He argues that the new 10–15% US baseline tariffs leave average effective rates only slightly lower, and that muted market reaction suggests no need to change existing economic or market forecasts.Tariff reshuffle leaves FX outlook steady"The market action over the past week has been far from spectacular. Long bond yields have crept somewhat lower, EUR/USD has moved largely sideways, while speculation on the probable impact of AI on different sectors has caused some swings in the equity market.""Assuming the new rate rises to 15%, the average effective tariff rate will fall only by a few percentage points compared with the IEEPA tariffs, according to estimates by the Yale Budget Lab.""The market reaction to the court decision was rather muted, suggesting that the outlook has not changed materially.""It would thus be premature to make any major changes to economic or market forecasts.""In the euro area, the recent tariff changes present some downside risks given increased uncertainty, but the impact could prove to be limited. After all, also the euro-area economy defied the more negative forecasts last year when tariff uncertainty was at its highest. ""We remain comfortable with our ECB forecast of there being no rate moves this year as recent data raise hopes that also the manufacturing sector is gradually doing better."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

11:08 Spain Current Account Balance rose from previous €0.21B to €1.8B in December
Spain Current Account Balance rose from previous €0.21B to €1.8B in December

11:04 Germany Baden-Wuerttemberg CPI (MoM) rose from previous 0% to 0.2% in February
Germany Baden-Wuerttemberg CPI (MoM) rose from previous 0% to 0.2% in February

11:02 Germany Baden-Wuerttemberg CPI (YoY) fell from previous 2.1% to 1.8% in February
Germany Baden-Wuerttemberg CPI (YoY) fell from previous 2.1% to 1.8% in February

11:02 Germany Saxony CPI (MoM) up to 0.3% in February from previous 0%
Germany Saxony CPI (MoM) up to 0.3% in February from previous 0%

11:02 Germany Saxony CPI (YoY) unchanged at 2.3% in February
Germany Saxony CPI (YoY) unchanged at 2.3% in February

11:01 Italy Industrial Sales s.a. (MoM) climbed from previous -0.1% to 0.5% in December
Italy Industrial Sales s.a. (MoM) climbed from previous -0.1% to 0.5% in December

11:01 Germany Brandenburg CPI (YoY) fell from previous 2.2% to 2% in February
Germany Brandenburg CPI (YoY) fell from previous 2.2% to 2% in February

11:01 Germany Brandenburg CPI (MoM) rose from previous 0% to 0.4% in February
Germany Brandenburg CPI (MoM) rose from previous 0% to 0.4% in February

11:01 Italy Industrial Sales n.s.a. (YoY) increased to 3.6% in December from previous 0%
Italy Industrial Sales n.s.a. (YoY) increased to 3.6% in December from previous 0%

11:00 Germany North Rhine-Westphalia CPI (YoY) dipped from previous 2% to 1.8% in February
Germany North Rhine-Westphalia CPI (YoY) dipped from previous 2% to 1.8% in February

11:00 Germany North Rhine-Westphalia CPI (MoM) rose from previous 0.1% to 0.2% in February
Germany North Rhine-Westphalia CPI (MoM) rose from previous 0.1% to 0.2% in February

11:00 Germany Bavaria CPI (MoM) up to 0.2% in February from previous 0%
Germany Bavaria CPI (MoM) up to 0.2% in February from previous 0%

11:00 Germany Bavaria CPI (YoY) fell from previous 2.1% to 1.9% in February
Germany Bavaria CPI (YoY) fell from previous 2.1% to 1.9% in February

10:56 UK: Labour pressure and market risks – Rabobank
Rabobank’s Stefan Koopman highlights growing political risks in the United Kingdom after the Gorton and Denton by-election, where Labour lost heavily to the Green Party and Reform UK.

Rabobank’s Stefan Koopman highlights growing political risks in the United Kingdom after the Gorton and Denton by-election, where Labour lost heavily to the Green Party and Reform UK. He notes this result intensifies pressure on Keir Starmer’s leadership ahead of May’s regional elections, with markets likely to prefer a Blair-style figure such as Wes Streeting over a left-wing challenger.Labour setbacks unsettle UK political outlook"The by-election barely shifts the balance in Westminster because Labour still holds a very large majority. Politically, however, the result matters a great deal. It reflects a clear national pattern in which Labour is being squeezed from the left by the Greens and from the right by Reform UK.""This is not new, but this dynamic does increase the pressure on Starmer’s already fragile position. It also increases the risk that Labour is pushed further to the left at exactly the moment when the party is struggling to manage broader economic and political disruption across the country.""The next test for Starmer comes in early May with the regional elections. Labour risks another heavy defeat, which could trigger a leadership challenge. Markets will not welcome the uncertainty, especially if a strong challenger emerges from the left of the party, such as Angela Rayner.""Wes Streeting, with his Blair-aligned profile, would be the preference of financial markets.""Questions about Starmer’s judgment will surface again today. Andy Burnham, the “King of the North,” had wanted to run as Labour’s candidate in this by-election, but Starmer blocked him because he didn’t want to invite his popular rival to Westminster."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

10:55 Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. meets forecasts (6.3%) in January
Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. meets forecasts (6.3%) in January

10:55 Germany Unemployment Change registered at 1K, below expectations (2K) in January
Germany Unemployment Change registered at 1K, below expectations (2K) in January

10:37 EUR/GBP: Domestic UK risks support upside case – ING
ING’s Francesco Pesole argues that UK political developments and policy risks are weighing on the Pound and supporting a bullish view on EUR/GBP.

ING’s Francesco Pesole argues that UK political developments and policy risks are weighing on the Pound and supporting a bullish view on EUR/GBP. A Green Party by-election win in a traditional Labour seat is seen as undermining Prime Minister Keir Starmer and adding to existing concerns around fiscal policy and dovish Bank of England pricing, keeping downside risks for the Pound in focus.Pound pressured by politics and policy"The pound is facing intensified pressure this morning after the Green Party won a by-election in Gorton and Denton, a Manchester seat previously deemed a Labour stronghold. Anything that is seen weakening the position of Prime Minister Keir Starmer has hit the pound as of late, and the success of a more left-wing party (Greens) in this special election might increase the perceived possibility of a more leftish successor to Starmer should he leave office early.""We have been bullish on EUR/GBP on the back of concentration risks on GBP: from political noise, to some fiscal risks (albeit small) ahead of next week’s budget announcement, and dovish risks for Bank of England pricing.""We think the conditions for a move past 0.880 (which is where EUR/GBP short-term sits, in our estimates) remain in place."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

10:28 GBP/USD Price Forecast: 20-day EMA acts as key barrier, downside likely below 1.3430
The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades marginally higher to near 1.3500 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Friday.

10:22 Forex Today: US Dollar stabilizes as market mood sours
Here is what you need to know on Friday, February 27:

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Here is what you need to know on Friday, February 27:Markets remain cautious early Friday, helping the US Dollar (USD) stay resilient against its rivals. The European economic calendar will feature preliminary February inflation data from Germany. Later in the day, January Producer Price Index (PPI) data from the US and fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures from Canada will be watched closely by investors. US Dollar Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.16% -0.04% 0.72% -0.02% -0.59% -0.16% -0.27% EUR 0.16% 0.13% 0.87% 0.14% -0.45% -0.00% -0.09% GBP 0.04% -0.13% 0.91% 0.00% -0.61% -0.14% -0.21% JPY -0.72% -0.87% -0.91% -0.72% -1.28% -0.81% -0.97% CAD 0.02% -0.14% -0.01% 0.72% -0.57% -0.09% -0.23% AUD 0.59% 0.45% 0.61% 1.28% 0.57% 0.45% 0.35% NZD 0.16% 0.00% 0.14% 0.81% 0.09% -0.45% -0.09% CHF 0.27% 0.09% 0.21% 0.97% 0.23% -0.35% 0.09% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). Following a two-day risk rally, safe-haven flows returned to markets. After posting strong gains on Tuesday and Wednesday, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite lost more than 1% on a daily basis on Thursday. In turn, the USD Index closed marginally higher.Meanwhile, Oman's Foreign Minister, Badr al-Busaidi, said that talks between the US and Iran on nuclear issues have made "significant progress.” Sides will have internal consultations before resuming negotiations in Vienna next week. This development doesn't seem to be helping the risk mood improve early Friday. As of writing, US stock index futures were down between 0.1% and 0.4%, while the USD Index was moving sideways near 97.70. Following Thursday's volatile action, crude oil prices edge slightly higher, with the barrel of West Texas Intermediate gaining about 0.3% on the day near $65.70.GBP/USD finds support and holds steady at around 1.3500 after losing more than 0.5% on Thursday. The Green Party's Hannah Spencer won the contest for the vacant parliamentary seat of Gorton and Denton, beating British Prime Minister Keir Starmer's Labour. "John Curtice, Britain's most respected pollster, called the result a "seismic moment", which means the "future of British politics looks more uncertain than at any stage" since the end of World War Two," Reuters reported.EUR/USD trades slightly above 1.1800 in the European session on Friday and remains within its tight weekly range. USD/JPY closed marginally lower on Thursday after posting gains for two consecutive days. The pair stays calm early Friday and fluctuates at around 156.00. The data from Japan showed that the annual inflation in Tokyo, as measured by the change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), edged higher to 1.6% in February from 1.5% in January. Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said that Japan is monitoring the Japanese Yen’s (JPY) slide “with a strong sense of urgency” and is in close communication with the US.Gold (XAU/USD) treads water below $5,200 for the second straight day on Friday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield holds steady at around 4% after losing more than 1% on Thursday, making it difficult for XAU/USD to find direction. Risk sentiment FAQs What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets? In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.

10:09 USD: Confidence erosion limits upside – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Antje Praefcke argues that renewed tariff uncertainty under the US president is eroding long‑term confidence in the Dollar, even as upcoming US data such as ISM, ADP and NFP loom.

Commerzbank’s Antje Praefcke argues that renewed tariff uncertainty under the US president is eroding long‑term confidence in the Dollar, even as upcoming US data such as ISM, ADP and NFP loom. She warns that doubts about US trade policy, fiscal balances and future Federal Reserve independence could mean stronger US growth no longer translates into sustained Dollar support.Tariffs, Fed doubts and Dollar support"With each step of reduced confidence in a stable, long-term economic and trade policy (I am leaving geopolitics out of the equation for now, but it is ultimately also part of it), I think the US president is further eroding confidence in the US dollar. Interim respites (such as after the conclusion of various trade agreements) lead to a supposed calm and stability, but both are fragile in view of the US president's erratic policies.""I therefore fear that sooner or later even positive US data will no longer be able to provide any noticeable support for the dollar (by the way, next week we will get: ISM Index, ADP Index, NFP). This is because, on the one hand, confidence in the US administration and its currency is simply dwindling (as my colleague Volkmar aptly described in the middle of the week, how economic balances have changed and how heavily the US economy depends on foreign capital) and, on the other hand, the issue of inflation and the independence of the Fed could become increasingly crucial again.""After all, high growth usually means stronger price pressure, which the central bank must counteract. If confidence in the central bank's ability to respond appropriately wanes due to political pressure or political influence, stronger growth is no longer positive for the currency. As has often been emphasized, much depends on how the “Fed after Powell” will position itself in relation to political pressure.""Ultimately, the US president's policies could do more harm than good to the US if global confidence in the country as a stable, reliable, legally secure, and long-term partner in all areas (trade, geopolitics, economy) continues to dwindle. Once confidence has hit rock bottom, the road back up is more difficult than the way down. So I continue to doubt that “Make America great again” will also make the dollar great again."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

10:01 Spain Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) came in at 0.4%, above expectations (0.3%) in February
Spain Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) came in at 0.4%, above expectations (0.3%) in February

10:01 Spain Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 2.3%, above expectations (2.2%) in February
Spain Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 2.3%, above expectations (2.2%) in February

10:00 Spain Consumer Price Index (MoM) increased to 0.4% in February from previous -0.4%
Spain Consumer Price Index (MoM) increased to 0.4% in February from previous -0.4%

10:00 Switzerland Gross Domestic Product (YoY) climbed from previous 0.5% to 0.7% in 4Q
Switzerland Gross Domestic Product (YoY) climbed from previous 0.5% to 0.7% in 4Q

10:00 Switzerland Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) registered at 0.1%, below expectations (0.2%) in 4Q
Switzerland Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) registered at 0.1%, below expectations (0.2%) in 4Q

10:00 Austria Producer Price Index (YoY) increased to -1.4% in January from previous -1.9%
Austria Producer Price Index (YoY) increased to -1.4% in January from previous -1.9%

10:00 Austria Producer Price Index (MoM) increased to 0.1% in January from previous -0.3%
Austria Producer Price Index (MoM) increased to 0.1% in January from previous -0.3%

10:00 Spain Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) came in at 2.5%, above expectations (2.3%) in February
Spain Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) came in at 2.5%, above expectations (2.3%) in February

09:55 NZD/USD Price Forecast: Hovers around 0.6000 near nine-day EMA
NZD/USD remains steady after registering modest losses in the previous session, trading around 0.5990 during the European hours on Friday. The technical analysis of the daily chart signals a neutral bias, and the pair is consolidating within a horizontal channel.

09:52 Oil: US-Iran headlines drive sharp intraday swings – Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank strategists describe a volatile session for Brent Oil as conflicting signals from US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva triggered a near 5% intraday range.

Deutsche Bank strategists describe a volatile session for Brent Oil as conflicting signals from US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva triggered a near 5% intraday range. Iranian comments on enriched uranium briefly pushed Brent to its highest level since June, before Omani mediation headlines reversed gains and left prices roughly flat by the close around $70.75 per barrel.Brent whipsaws on nuclear negotiations"In other news, we saw a volatile geopolitical backdrop amid conflicting headlines around US-Iran talks in Geneva yesterday.""Reports by Iranian state media that Iran wouldn’t allow enriched uranium to leave the country saw Brent crude price move from -1.5% to +2.5% on the day, reaching its highest intra-day level since last June when Israel and the US carried out airstrikes against Iran.""However, Brent was back to near flat on the day by the close (-0.14% at $70.75/bbl) after Omani officials, who have mediated the talks, cited “significant progress” and that technical nuclear negotiations would resume next week in Vienna."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

09:45 France Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (MoM) below expectations (0.5%) in February: Actual (0.4%)
France Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (MoM) below expectations (0.5%) in February: Actual (0.4%)

09:45 France Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (YoY) registered at 1.1% above expectations (0.7%) in February
France Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (YoY) registered at 1.1% above expectations (0.7%) in February

09:45 France Consumer Spending (MoM) registered at 0.5% above expectations (0.3%) in January
France Consumer Spending (MoM) registered at 0.5% above expectations (0.3%) in January

09:45 France Producer Prices (MoM) rose from previous 0.2% to 0.5% in January
France Producer Prices (MoM) rose from previous 0.2% to 0.5% in January

09:45 France Nonfarm Payrolls (QoQ) below forecasts (0.1%) in 4Q: Actual (-0.1%)
France Nonfarm Payrolls (QoQ) below forecasts (0.1%) in 4Q: Actual (-0.1%)

09:45 France Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) in line with forecasts (0.2%) in 4Q
France Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) in line with forecasts (0.2%) in 4Q

09:40 Australian Dollar remains on the front foot vs. USD; eyes multi-year peak amid hawkish RBA
The AUD/USD pair regains positive traction on Friday and climbs back closer to over a two-week top, around the 0.7110-0.7115 region, during the early part of the European session.

09:40 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD jumps above $90 as AI valuation risks boost safe-haven demand
Silver price (XAG/USD) is up 2.4% to near $90.60 during the European trading session on Friday. The white metal strengthens as escalating concerns over valuations of Artificial Intelligence (AI) stocks have prompted demand for safe-haven assets.

09:39 EUR/USD: Pair holds near 1.18 as Euro inflation eyed – Danske Bank
Danske Bank’s Danske Research Team notes that EUR/USD is trading close to 1.18 as markets await key Euro area inflation data. The bank expects Euro area HICP inflation to edge up slightly to 1.73% year-on-year, with core inflation steady at 2.2%.

Danske Bank’s Danske Research Team notes that EUR/USD is trading close to 1.18 as markets await key Euro area inflation data. The bank expects Euro area HICP inflation to edge up slightly to 1.73% year-on-year, with core inflation steady at 2.2%. Softer preliminary inflation prints from France, Spain and Germany could add downward pressure on Euro rates.Euro inflation expectations support stability"In the euro area, February's flash inflation data from France, Germany, and Spain will give important hints ahead of next week's euro area inflation release. We expect euro area HICP inflation to rise marginally from 1.69% y/y to 1.73% y/y, remaining at 1.7% y/y when rounded. Core inflation is expected to remain at 2.2% y/y.""Core inflation is expected to remain at 2.2% y/y. Energy inflation is expected to rise due to lagged effects of January's energy price and higher fuel prices in February, which is the main reason we expect a small rise in the headline at the second decimal.""Monthly momentum in services inflation will be crucial, given its notable weakness in January.""EUR/USD continues to trade near the 1.18 level, while EUR/SEK remains below 10.70."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

09:23 JPY: Soft versus region despite BOJ hike case – DBS
DBS Group Research’s Chang Wei Liang observes that JPY is weakening against regional peers, with USD/JPY back toward 156, even as Tokyo inflation data support another BOJ rate hike.

DBS Group Research’s Chang Wei Liang observes that JPY is weakening against regional peers, with USD/JPY back toward 156, even as Tokyo inflation data support another BOJ rate hike. Political noise around BOJ appointments and potential safe-haven demand from global risk events are highlighted as key factors for Japanese Yen dynamics.Japanese Yen lags regional FX recovery"JPY is softening against regional trends, with USD/JPY trading back towards 156.""Media reports this week suggest that PM Takaichi had expressed concerns over rate hikes to BOJ Governor Ueda, while her two picks to replace outgoing BOJ board members are also considered to be dovish.""It is perhaps unwise to speculate if political considerations may influence the well-respected Governor Ueda, and hard data continue to support the case for another BOJ rate hike.""Tokyo’s headline inflation for Feb released today shows a rebound to 1.6% y/y, in contrast to expectations for a decline.""JPY could also be supported if market volatility picks up, with risks ranging from US-Iran tensions to AI disruptions still pertinent."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

09:07 GBP/JPY slides to 210.00 amid UK political drama, divergent BoE-BoJ outlooks
The GBP/JPY cross attracts sellers for the second consecutive day on Friday and drops to the 210.00 psychological mark heading into the European session.

09:06 GBP/USD: Back into range after failed breakout – UOB
UOB strategists Quek Ser Leang ve Lee Sue Ann note that GBP/USD reversed sharply from 1.3575 to 1.3447, invalidating the earlier bullish bias. Intraday, they expect a consolidation between 1.3455 and 1.3525 as the latest drop looks excessive.

UOB strategists Quek Ser Leang ve Lee Sue Ann note that GBP/USD reversed sharply from 1.3575 to 1.3447, invalidating the earlier bullish bias. Intraday, they expect a consolidation between 1.3455 and 1.3525 as the latest drop looks excessive. Over 1–3 weeks, Sterling is now seen back in a range‑trading phase between 1.3435 and 1.3605.Sterling retreats into broader consolidation band"GBP retreated after reaching a high of 1.3575, but during the NY session, it plunged to a low of 1.3447. GBP recovered from the low to close at 1.3481 (-0.58%). The sharp drop appears excessive, and instead of continuing to decline, GBP is more likely to trade in a range today, probably between 1.3455 and 1.3525.""On Monday (23 Feb, spot at 1.3510), we highlighted that “the current price movements in GBP appear to be part of a range-trading phase, and for the time being, we expect GBP to trade between 1.3435 and 1.3605.” After GBP rose two days ago, we indicated that “the risk of GBP breaking above 1.3605 is increasing and will continue to increase as long as GBP holds above the ‘strong support’ level, currently at 1.3475.”""Our view was invalidated quickly as GBP fell and broke below our ‘strong support’ level. The buildup in momentum has faded, and GBP now appears to be back in a range-trading phase between 1.3435 and 1.3605.""GBP/USD could decline further within a descending consolidation phase; any further pullback should find solid support at 1.2945. (dated 05 Dec 2025, 1.3215)"(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

09:03 WTI sets for weekly drop near $65.50 as US-Iran talks continue
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $65.65 during the early European trading hours on Friday. The WTI price edges higher on the day, but heads for a weekly decline after the United States (US) and Iran extended nuclear talks.

09:01 Sweden Gross Domestic Product (YoY) came in at 2.1%, above forecasts (1.8%) in 4Q
Sweden Gross Domestic Product (YoY) came in at 2.1%, above forecasts (1.8%) in 4Q

09:01 Sweden Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) came in at 0.5%, above forecasts (0.2%) in 4Q
Sweden Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) came in at 0.5%, above forecasts (0.2%) in 4Q

09:00 Germany Import Price Index (YoY) remains at -2.3% in January
Germany Import Price Index (YoY) remains at -2.3% in January

09:00 Germany Import Price Index (MoM) came in at 1.1%, above expectations (0.6%) in January
Germany Import Price Index (MoM) came in at 1.1%, above expectations (0.6%) in January

09:00 Sweden Trade Balance (MoM) fell from previous 7.4B to 6.3B in January
Sweden Trade Balance (MoM) fell from previous 7.4B to 6.3B in January

08:48 Gold: Structural support keeps rally in play – ING
ING’s Commodities Strategist Ewa Manthey argues that despite recent consolidation after January’s sharp move, the Gold rally is not finished.

ING’s Commodities Strategist Ewa Manthey argues that despite recent consolidation after January’s sharp move, the Gold rally is not finished. She highlights ongoing central bank diversification away from the Dollar, heightened geopolitical risks, potential Federal Reserve easing, renewed ETF inflows and growing stablecoin-related demand as key structural supports that continue to favour Gold over the coming months.Central banks, geopolitics and ETFs support"Momentum may moderate from here. But the structural drivers underpinning the market remain firmly in place – and in some cases are strengthening.""As long as geopolitical fragmentation persists, a meaningful reversal in central bank gold demand looks unlikely. This structural floor continues to underpin the market at elevated price levels.""Our US economist expects the Fed to begin cutting rates in the second quarter, with policy becoming incrementally less restrictive over the coming quarters. Even a modest easing cycle would be supportive for gold, lowering real yields and reducing the opportunity cost of holding non‑yielding assets.""If rate‑cut expectations firm or geopolitical risks intensify, a renewed wave of ETF inflows could provide another leg higher for gold prices.""Reserve evolution is no longer confined to central banks. The rapid growth of US dollar-backed stablecoins has created a new institutional buyer of reserve assets.""The path higher is unlikely to be linear. At record price levels, physical demand is becoming more price sensitive, and periods of consolidation – or short-term corrections – should be expected.""However, the structural pillars of this rally – central bank diversification, geopolitical fragmentation, potential policy easing and renewed ETF interest – remain intact. For now, the broader environment continues to favour gold."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

08:45 USD/CAD slips to near 1.3650 as Oil recovers recent losses
USD/CAD depreciates after holding ground in the previous session, trading around 1.3660 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair loses ground as the Canadian Dollar (CAD) receives support from improved Oil prices, given Canada’s status as the largest crude exporter to the United States (US).

08:29 USD/JPY Price Forecast: Price above 20-day EMA backs near-term bullish bias
The USD/JPY pair is down 0.2% to near 155.80 during the European trading session on Friday. The pair retraces as the Japanese Yen (JPY) extends recovery on hopes of Japan’s intervention.

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p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/JPY corrects further to near 155.80 as the Japanese Yen recovers on fears of Japan’s intervention.Tokyo’s CPI ex. Fresh Food for February arrives lower at 1.8% YoY from the previous release of 2%.Investors await the US PPI data for fresh cues on the Fed’s monetary policy outlook.The USD/JPY pair is down 0.2% to near 155.80 during the European trading session on Friday. The pair retraces as the Japanese Yen (JPY) extends recovery on hopes of Japan’s intervention. Japanese Yen Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the British Pound. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.06% 0.08% -0.17% -0.11% -0.18% -0.03% -0.15% EUR 0.06% 0.14% -0.13% -0.05% -0.11% 0.03% -0.09% GBP -0.08% -0.14% -0.27% -0.18% -0.26% -0.11% -0.23% JPY 0.17% 0.13% 0.27% 0.09% 0.01% 0.15% 0.04% CAD 0.11% 0.05% 0.18% -0.09% -0.08% 0.06% -0.05% AUD 0.18% 0.11% 0.26% -0.01% 0.08% 0.15% 0.02% NZD 0.03% -0.03% 0.11% -0.15% -0.06% -0.15% -0.12% CHF 0.15% 0.09% 0.23% -0.04% 0.05% -0.02% 0.12% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote). Earlier in the day, Japanese Finance Minister (FM) Satsuki Katayama stated that the government remains vigilant to JPY’s weakness, with a strong sense of urgency. Katayama also said that the administration is “maintaining extremely close communication with the United States (US), and will continue engaging in dialogue to ensure that the concerns you raise do not materialise”.Meanwhile, Tokyo’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth moderating below 2% has raised concerns over the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) interest rate hike plans. The data showed earlier in the day that Tokyo CPI ex. Fresh Food growth cooled down to 1.8% Year-on-Year (YoY) from 2% in January, but remained higher than estimates of 1.7%.On the US Dollar (USD) front, investors await the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data for January, which will be published at 13:30 GMT. The producer inflation data is expected to influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook, as several officials have expressed concerns over inflation remaining above the central bank’s 2% target in their latest commentaries.USD/JPY technical analysisUSD/JPY trades lower to near 155.80 during the press time. Price has slipped back toward the rising 20-day Exponential Moving Average, which now tracks just above 155.20 and acts as dynamic support. The recent rebound off the 152.00s has stalled, but the pair still holds a pattern of higher lows. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI)wobbles inside the 40.00-60.00 range, indicating a sideways trend.Initial resistance emerges at the February 9 high of 157.66, ahead of the 159.20-159.45 zone that capped the last upswing. On the downside, immediate support stands near 155.20 at the 20-day EMA, followed by the February 23 low around 154.00 and then the recent swing low around 152.27, where a break would undermine the current bullish structure and open a deeper retracement.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Economic Indicator Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) The Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Statistics Bureau of Japan on a monthly basis, measures the price fluctuation of goods and services purchased by households in the Tokyo region excluding fresh food, whose prices often fluctuate depending on the weather. The index is widely considered as a leading indicator of Japan’s overall CPI as it is published weeks before the nationwide reading. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Japanese Yen (JPY), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Thu Feb 26, 2026 23:30 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 1.8% Consensus: 1.7% Previous: 2% Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan

08:20 EUR/GBP drifts higher to near 0.8750 on UK political uncertainty, German CPI inflation looms
The EUR/GBP cross holds positive ground near 0.8750 during the early European session on Friday. The Pound Sterling (GBP) softens against the Euro (EUR) amid a combination of UK political uncertainty and expectations of monetary easing by the Bank of England (BoE).

08:19 JPY: Tokyo inflation supports rate hike bets – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur notes that Tokyo inflation rose to 1.6% in February versus expectations for 1.3%, with consumer goods prices and retail sales surprising on the upside.

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur notes that Tokyo inflation rose to 1.6% in February versus expectations for 1.3%, with consumer goods prices and retail sales surprising on the upside. He argues that stable inflation within the Bank of Japan’s target range is supportive for the Japanese Yen, as markets price a roughly 70% chance of an April rate hike and near‑certainty by June.Slight inflation surprise backs BoJ tightening"Inflation figures for the Japanese capital Tokyo released this morning indicate that inflationary pressure in Japan was slightly higher in February than most analysts had expected. The inflation rate rose from 1.5% in January to 1.6% in February, whereas a Bloomberg survey had predicted a decline to 1.3%.""Prices for consumer goods such as clothing, shoes and furniture in particular appeared to rise more sharply month-on-month. In line with this, retail data for January was also released this morning, showing a 4.1% month-on-month increase in sales.""All in all, this single data point on inflation should not be overrated. Looking at the second decimal place, for example, it can be seen that the annual inflation rate rose only from 1.54% to 1.55%. Seasonally adjusted, the monthly rate shows an unchanged price level.""The JPY is responding positively to this morning's slight surprise on inflation and is gaining slightly against the USD. We also view it as positive that inflation is not falling too quickly, but is stabilising within the Bank of Japan's target range. Otherwise, the market could raise the question whether the Bank of Japan should continue to raise interest rates at all.""The market is pricing in a key interest rate hike in April at around 70% and expects a move by June at the latest with almost 100% certainty. If this were not to happen, it would certainly weigh on the JPY."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

08:02 South Africa Private Sector Credit: 8.83% (January) vs 8.74%
South Africa Private Sector Credit: 8.83% (January) vs 8.74%

07:54 US Dollar Index declines to near 97.50 ahead of PPI data
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is paring its recent gains registered in the previous session and trading around 97.70 during the Asian hours on Friday.

07:41 China's Politburo signals active fiscal, moderately loose monetary policy
China’s Politburo held its latest meeting on Friday, with the key takeaways noted below.

07:28 EUR/USD ticks higher to near 1.1800 ahead of flash German inflation data
The EUR/USD pair trades marginally higher to near 1.1810 in the late Asian trading session on Friday, ahead of the release of preliminary inflation data for February from Germany and its major states during the day.

07:18 AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Retreats below 111.00, but holds firm above 100-day EMA
The AUD/JPY cross attracts some sellers to around 110.80 during the early European session on Friday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) gathers strength against the Aussie on hawkish comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) officials.

07:09 USD/INR stays broadly firm amid lack of foreign inflows in Indian stock market
The Indian Rupee (INR) opens on a flat note against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, but remains close to its over three-week low. The USD/INR pair holds onto gains near 91.20 as the Indian stock market struggles to attract foreign investment.

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The USD/INR pair holds onto gains near 91.20 as the Indian stock market struggles to attract foreign investment.According to data from the NSE, there seem to be no consistent inflows of overseas funds into the Indian equity market despite the announcement of a trade deal between the United States (US) and India in early February. So far this month, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have bought shares worth Rs. 895.58 crore, which represents pennies against the outflow seen in the last seven months.On February 2, both India and the US acknowledged the trade deal announcement by President Donald Trump in which Washington agreed to cut tariffs on imports from New Delhi to 18% from 50% (which included 25% punitive tariffs).Meanwhile, the Indian currency is also failing to capitalize on signs of easing tensions between the US and Iran. Oman's Foreign Minister, Badr al-Busaidi, said in early trade that talks between the two nations on nuclear issues have made "significant progress,” and they will resume next week in Vienna.It seems that the absence of a meaningful impact of positive US-Iran talks on the oil price has failed to support the Indian Rupee. As of writing, WTI oil price trades 0.3% lower at near $65.25. The Indian currency is highly sensitive to changes in oil prices, given that the Indian economy relies heavily on oil imports to meet its energy needs.On the domestic front, investors await the Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, which will be published at 04:00 PM IST (10:30 GMT). The GDP data is expected to show that the economy expanded at an annualized pace of 7.2%, slower than 8.2% growth seen in the third quarter of 2025.In the Asian session, the US Dollar trades marginally and is expected to end the week broadly sideways after the whole tariff tantrum. During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, ticks lower to near 97.70.This week, US President Trump announced 10% global tariffs, and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said that Washington could raise these tariffs to 15% or above on some nations. The White House called for global levies to offset the impact of the Supreme Court ruling against Trump’s tariff policy, which came on February 20.On the monetary policy front, traders remain confident that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will leave interest rates unchanged in its policy meetings in March and April, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Market speculation for the Fed to avoid any monetary policy adjustment in the next two meetings has been prompted by inflation remaining above the central bank’s 2% target for a long period.On Thursday, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee signaled support for several interest rate cuts this year, but cautioned against front-loading them as inflation is still above the 2% target. “Rates can come down, but don't want to front-load before inflation eases,” Goolsbee said in an interview with Fox News.Technical Analysis: USD/INR holds gains above 91.00USD/INR trades almost flat near 91.20 during the press time. The pair holds a mild bullish bias as it stabilizes above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average, which has flattened and now tracks just below spot. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) approaches 60.00, signaling positive but moderate momentum rather than an extended uptrend.Immediate support emerges at the 20-day EMA near 90.94, with a break below exposing the recent reaction low at 90.58 and then the February 3 low at 90.15 as deeper support. On the topside, initial resistance stands at the January 22 low of 91.35, followed by the January 28 low of 91.66.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.

07:02 Japan Housing Starts (YoY) above forecasts (-1.6%) in January: Actual (-0.4%)
Japan Housing Starts (YoY) above forecasts (-1.6%) in January: Actual (-0.4%)

07:02 Japan Annualized Housing Starts down to 0.755M in January from previous 0.771M
Japan Annualized Housing Starts down to 0.755M in January from previous 0.771M

07:02 Japan Construction Orders (YoY) down to 5.7% in January from previous 20.2%
Japan Construction Orders (YoY) down to 5.7% in January from previous 20.2%

06:54 Pound Sterling struggles to lure buyers amid UK political drama, BoE easing bias
The GBP/USD pair struggles to build on the overnight modest bounce from the 1.3445 area, or the weekly low, and oscillates in a narrow band during the Asian session on Friday.

06:42 USD/CHF holds losses near 0.7750 ahead of Swiss GDP data
USD/CHF edges lower after registering little gains in the previous session, trading around 0.7730 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair declines as the Swiss Franc (CHF) gains on safe-haven demand amid renewed trade and geopolitical tensions.

06:38 India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices fell in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

06:26 USD/CNH recovers above 0.8500 as PBOC cuts FX risk reserve ratio to 0%
The USD/CNH pair recovers some lost ground to near 0.8505 during the early European session on Friday. The Chinese Yuan (CNH) weakens against the US Dollar (USD) as China moves to rein in the currency’s strength by scrapping an extra fee for betting against it in the derivatives market.

06:05 AUD/USD Price Forecast: Holds above 0.7100 on hawkish RBA, bullish technical outlook
The AUD/USD pair attracts fresh buyers following the previous day's modest pullback and holds steady above the 0.7100 mark through the Asian session on Friday.

05:57 Japan’s Katayama warns greater vigilance over the Japanese Yen's weakness
Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said that Japan is monitoring the Japanese Yen’s (JPY) slide “with a strong sense of urgency” and is in close communication with the US, Reuters reported on Friday.

05:55 Gold consolidates below $5,200 as Fed outlook counter geopolitical risks
Gold (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on its modest gains registered over the past two days and oscillates in a narrow trading band below the $5,200 mark, during the Asian session on Friday. Geopolitical risks remain in play amid a huge American naval and air power buildup in the Middle East.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold extends its sideways consolidative price move through the Asian session on Friday.Geopolitical risks and trade uncertainties continue to act as a tailwind for the XAU/USD.Reduced Fed rate cut bets offer support to the USD and cap the non-yielding commodity.Gold (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on its modest gains registered over the past two days and oscillates in a narrow trading band below the $5,200 mark, during the Asian session on Friday. Geopolitical risks remain in play amid a huge American naval and air power buildup in the Middle East. Moreover, US President Donald Trump laid out the case for a possible attack on Iran in his State of the Union speech and said on Tuesday that he would not allow the world's biggest sponsor of terrorism to have a nuclear weapon. This, along with persistent trade-related uncertainties, acts as a tailwind for the precious metal.The US moved ahead with a 10% tariff on all non-exempt goods, the rate initially announced by Trump on Friday, following the Supreme Court verdict against his sweeping tariffs rather than the 15% he promised a day later. However, a White House official said the administration is working to raise levies to 15%, fueling worries about retaliatory measures and the economic fallout from disruptions to global supply chains. Given Trump's mercurial turns over tariffs, the anxiety over how long this rate will continue keeps investors on edge and turns out to be another factor that underpins the traditional safe-haven Gold.Meanwhile, traders trimmed their bets for more aggressive policy easing by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) after minutes from the January FOMC meeting showed that the central bank is in no hurry to cut interest rates further. Moreover, officials discussed the possibility of raising rates if inflation does not cool. This keeps the US Dollar (USD) well within striking distance of the monthly peak and caps the upside for the non-yielding Gold. Furthermore, the US and Iran agreed to more nuclear talks, easing concerns about potential hostilities. This contributes to keeping a lid on the commodity and warrants caution for bulls.The market focus now shifts to the release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI), due later during the North American session. Apart from this, speeches by influential FOMC members will play a key role in driving the USD demand and providing some impetus to the Gold heading into the weekend. Nevertheless, the XAU/USD pair remains on track to register gains for the fourth week in a row, and the broader fundamental backdrop suggests that any corrective pullback is more likely to be bought into.XAU/USD 1-hour chartGold remains confined in a multi-day range, above the 100-hour SMA pivotal supportThe range-bound price action witnessed over the past three days or so constitutes the formation of a rectangle pattern on intraday charts. Meanwhile, the Gold holds above the rising 100-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $5,176, keeping the short-term uptrend structure intact despite repeated intraday pullbacks. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers just below 50, reflecting balanced momentum but not signaling downside pressure. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains slightly above the zero line, with the MACD line still over the signal line, which reinforces a modest upside tone rather than a momentum-driven rally.Initial resistance emerges at the recent hourly highs around $5,195, where prior advances stalled, and intraday sellers reappeared. A convincing break above this barrier would open the way toward the next upside area near $5,210, where the latest upward leg would begin to look extended. On the downside, immediate support stands at the 100-hour SMA around $5,176, with a sustained drop below this level exposing deeper support at $5,165, aligned with recent closing lows and the lower end of the latest consolidation band.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

05:40 EUR/JPY slips below 184.00 following Tokyo inflation data, German labor, CPI eyed
EUR/JPY continues to lose ground for the second successive session, trading around 183.80 during the Asian hours on Friday. The currency cross weakens as the Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens following Tokyo’s mixed inflation data.

05:19 NZD/USD rises to near 0.6000 while investors seek fresh cues on Fed’s policy outlook
The NZD/USD pair is up 0.16% to near 0.5990 during the Asian trading session on Friday. The kiwi pair gains as the US Dollar (USD) ticks up, while investors seek fresh cues on the United States (US) interest rate outlook.

04:34 Canadian Dollar strengthens above 1.3650 ahead of Canada's GDP, US PPI data
The USD/CAD pair trades with mild losses near 1.3675 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. US policy fog continues to weigh on the US Dollar (USD) against the Canadian Dollar (CAD).

04:18 WTI falls to near $65.00 as US, Iran to continue nuclear talks next week
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price loses ground after registering little gains in the previous session, trading around $65.00 per barrel during the Asian hours on Friday.

04:06 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD looks to build on modest gains above mid-$89.00s
Silver (XAG/USD) struggles for a firm near-term direction and remains confined in a multi-day-old range during the Asian session on Friday.

03:49 Oman’s Foreign Minister: Iran and US made ‘significant progress’ in talks
Oman's Foreign Minister, Badr al-Busaidi, said that talks between the United States (US) and Iran on nuclear issues have made "significant progress,” Reuters reported on Thursday.

03:37 PBOC cuts FX risk reserve ratio to 0%
The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, announced on Friday that it will cut the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio from 20% to 0%, starting March 2.

03:31 Japanese Yen strengthens as Tokyo CPI does little to temper BoJ rate hike bets
The USD/JPY pair attracts some sellers for the second straight day following the release of Tokyo inflation figures and slides to the 155.65 area during the Asian session on Friday.

.fxs-event-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-event-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-event-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:12px}.fxs-event-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-event-module-header{color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px;margin:0;padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;padding-right:32px}.fxs-event-module-header label{cursor:pointer;display:block}.fxs-event-module-header label:after,.fxs-event-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:17.6px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:20.8px;margin:4px 0 0 0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/JPY drifts lower as reviving bets for more BoJ rate hike provide a modest lift to the JPY.Reduced bets for more rate cuts by the Fed act as a tailwind for the USD and spot prices.The pair is poised to register its second straight weekly gains as traders look to the US PPI.The USD/JPY pair attracts some sellers for the second straight day following the release of Tokyo inflation figures and slides to the 155.65 area during the Asian session on Friday. Spot prices, however, remain on track to register gains for the second week in a row, and the fundamental backdrop warrants caution before positioning for an extension of the corrective fall from a two-week top, touched on Wednesday.Data released earlier today showed that the core consumer inflation in Tokyo – Japan's capital city – cooled below the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) 2% target for the first time since 2024. The inflation, however, remains well above historic levels, which, along with the recent hawkish comments from BoJ officials, keeps hopes alive for further tightening by the central bank and provides a modest lift to the Japanese Yen (JPY).In fact, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated on Thursday that the basic stance is to continue raising rates if the likelihood of our economic and price forecasts materialising heightens. Moreover, BoJ Board Member Hajime Takata said that the central bank must conduct further rate hikes in a gradual manner. This, along with trade jitters and geopolitical risks, benefits the safe-haven JPY and weighs on the USD/JPY pair.Meanwhile, reports suggested that Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi had expressed reservations about additional monetary tightening ‌during her meeting with the governor. Furthermore, concerns about Japan's fiscal health might hold back the JPY bulls from placing aggressive bets. The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, remains close to the monthly high and could further support the USD/JPY pair.Traders trimmed their bets for more aggressive policy easing by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) after minutes from the January FOMC meeting showed that the central bank is in no hurry to cut interest rates further. Moreover, officials discussed the possibility of raising rates if inflation does not cool. This offset concerns about the economic fallout from US President Donald Trump's policies and supports the USD.The focus now shifts to the release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI), due later during the North American session. Apart from this, comments from influential FOMC members will play a key role in driving the USD demand and providing some impetus to the USD/JPY pair. Meanwhile, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop suggests that any subsequent fall is likely to be bought into. Economic Indicator Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) The Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Statistics Bureau of Japan on a monthly basis, measures the price fluctuation of goods and services purchased by households in the Tokyo region. The index is widely considered as a leading indicator of Japan’s overall CPI as it is published weeks before the nationwide reading. The gauge excluding food and energy is widely used to measure underlying inflation trends as these two components are more volatile. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Japanese Yen (JPY), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Thu Feb 26, 2026 23:30 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 1.8% Consensus: - Previous: 2% Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan

03:19 Pound Sterling declines below 1.3500 on UK political uncertainty, US PPI data eyed
The GBP/USD pair loses ground to near 1.3485 during the early Asian session on Friday. The Pound Sterling (GBP) weakens against the Greenback amid rising UK political uncertainty surrounding the Gorton and Denton by-election.

03:16 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 6.9228 vs. 6.9228 previous
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Friday at 6.9228 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.9228 and 6.8428 Reuters estimate.

02:56 Australian Dollar weakens despite RBA cautious outlook
AUD/USD extends its losses for the second successive session, trading around 0.7110 during the Asian hours on Friday. However, the downside of the pair could be limited as the Australian Dollar (AUD) may strengthen on cautious sentiment surrounding the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy outlook.

02:31 Australia Private Sector Credit (MoM) registered at 0.5%, below expectations (0.7%) in January
Australia Private Sector Credit (MoM) registered at 0.5%, below expectations (0.7%) in January

02:31 EUR/USD flat lines near 1.1800 as traders brace for US PPI release
The EUR/USD pair trades on a flat note near 1.1800 during the early Asian session on Friday. The pair steadies as softer Eurozone inflation offsets US tariff uncertainties.

02:31 Australia Private Sector Credit (YoY): 7.7% (January)
Australia Private Sector Credit (YoY): 7.7% (January)

02:01 United Kingdom GfK Consumer Confidence came in at -19 below forecasts (-15) in February
United Kingdom GfK Consumer Confidence came in at -19 below forecasts (-15) in February

01:57 Japan Large Retailer Sales up to 3% in January from previous 2%
Japan Large Retailer Sales up to 3% in January from previous 2%

01:56 Japan Retail Trade s.a (MoM) increased to 4.1% in January from previous -2%
Japan Retail Trade s.a (MoM) increased to 4.1% in January from previous -2%

01:55 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) down to 2.3% in January from previous 2.6%
Japan Industrial Production (YoY) down to 2.3% in January from previous 2.6%

01:50 Japan Retail Trade (YoY) came in at 1.8%, above forecasts (-0.4%) in January
Japan Retail Trade (YoY) came in at 1.8%, above forecasts (-0.4%) in January

01:50 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) came in at 2.2% below forecasts (5.3%) in January
Japan Industrial Production (MoM) came in at 2.2% below forecasts (5.3%) in January

01:50 Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks: ¥402B (February 20) vs previous ¥1424.2B
Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks: ¥402B (February 20) vs previous ¥1424.2B

01:42 USD/SGD: Reversal signs after heavy selling – BNY
BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage highlights USD/SGD as the weakest non-carry pair over the past month, with sustained net selling pressure. However, the last two sessions have seen softer outflows, suggesting momentum is turning.

BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage highlights USD/SGD as the weakest non-carry pair over the past month, with sustained net selling pressure. However, the last two sessions have seen softer outflows, suggesting momentum is turning. BNY warns SGD is at risk of an unwind into month-end after its strong February performance.SGD strength seen vulnerable into month-end"USDSGD was the worst-performing “non-carry” pair over the past month, as its monthly average flow magnitude was even higher than EURUSD.""The pair has been net sold for almost three consecutive trading weeks, but the past two sessions have also been the softest during this run.""This is a clear sign of momentum reversal coming through.""We note that SGD is at material risk of an unwind through month-end after a strong run in February, based on iFlow."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

01:30 Japan Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) above forecasts (1.7%) in February: Actual (1.8%)
Japan Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) above forecasts (1.7%) in February: Actual (1.8%)

01:30 Japan Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY): 1.8% (February) vs previous 2%
Japan Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY): 1.8% (February) vs previous 2%

01:30 Japan Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY): 1.6% (February) vs 1.5%
Japan Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY): 1.6% (February) vs 1.5%

01:29 Gold rises to near $5,200 amid US tariff uncertainty, US PPI data in focus
Gold (XAU/USD) attracts some buyers to around $5,195 during the early Asian session on Friday. The precious metal edges higher as US tariff uncertainty spurs safe-haven demand. Traders await the release of the US January Producer Price Index (PPI) reports later on Friday for fresh impetus.

01:04 USD/CNH: Yuan strength extends lower grind – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes the Dollar is mixed within a multi‑month range while USD/CNH continues to grind lower, reaching its weakest level since March 2023. The bank sees further downside potential as a stronger Yuan supports China’s shift toward consumption-led growth.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes the Dollar is mixed within a multi‑month range while USD/CNH continues to grind lower, reaching its weakest level since March 2023. The bank sees further downside potential as a stronger Yuan supports China’s shift toward consumption-led growth. The PBOC is allowing appreciation but tempering expectations via a stronger-than-forecast USD/CNY fixing.Yuan gains as PBOC steers fix"USD is mixed, trading within its multi-month range, but USD/CNH keeps grinding lower. USD/CNH dropped to its lowest level since March 2023, and we see more downside potential.""A continued appreciation of the yuan can help China shift its growth model towards consumer spending by boosting disposable income through cheaper imports.""The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is not resisting yuan strength but instead managing the currency’s appreciation expectations with a higher-than-forecast USD/CNY fix.""USD/CNY fixing was set at 6.9228 vs. Bloomberg survey estimate of 6.8618.""The gap between the fixing and forecast was the most positive on record."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

00:50 AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Uptrend intact despite dip below 111.00
The rally on the AUD/JPY was halted on Thursday as the cross-pair retreated some 0.40% during the session on broad strength of the Japanese Yen. Hawkish comments by two officials of the Bank of Japan, weighed on the pair, which trades below the 111.00 mark at the time of writing.

00:30 When is the Japan Tokyo CPI and how it could affect USD/JPY?
Statistics Bureau of Japan will publish its data for February on Friday at 23.30 GMT. The Tokyo CPI measures the price fluctuation of goods and services purchased by households in the Tokyo region, excluding fresh food, whose prices often fluctuate depending on the weather.

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50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} The Japan Tokyo CPI OverviewStatistics Bureau of Japan will publish its data for February on Friday at 23.30 GMT. The Tokyo CPI measures the price fluctuation of goods and services purchased by households in the Tokyo region, excluding fresh food, whose prices often fluctuate depending on the weather. The index is widely considered as a leading indicator of Japan’s overall CPI, as it is published weeks before the nationwide reading. The Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food is projected to show a rise of 1.7% YoY in February, compared to 2.0% in January.How could the Japan Tokyo CPI affect USD/JPY?USD/JPY trades on a negative note on the day in the lead up to the Japan Tokyo CPI report. The major pair loses ground as the Japanese Yen strengthens amid hawkish signals from Bank of Japan (BoJ) officials.If data comes in hotter than expected, it could lift the Japanese Yen, with the first upside barrier seen at the February 25 high of 156.82. The next resistance level emerges at the February 9 high of 157.66, en route to the January 23 high of 159.23.To the downside, the February 25 low of 155.35 will offer some comfort to buyers. Extended losses could see a drop to the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 154.45. The next contention level is located at the February 16 low of 152.64. Economic Indicator Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY) The Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Statistics Bureau of Japan on a monthly basis, measures the price fluctuation of goods and services purchased by households in the Tokyo region. The index is widely considered as a leading indicator of Japan’s overall CPI as it is published weeks before the nationwide reading. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Japanese Yen (JPY), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Thu Feb 26, 2026 23:30 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: - Previous: 1.5% Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

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Forex News Timeline

20:52 India: Weak growth impulse and fiscal risks – Societe Generale Societe Generale’s Kunal Kundu reviews India’s FY27 Union Budget, highlighting policy continuity and fiscal consolidation in a context of geopolitical strains and currency weakness.

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20:07 China: Policy mix guides 2026 growth path – UOB UOB’s Ho Woei Chen expects China’s National People’s Congress to set a 2026 real GDP growth target of 4.5–5.0%, with actual growth forecast at 4.7%.

19:13 Asia FX: Oil shock risks as US–Iran talks progress – MUFG MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Lloyd Chan highlights that an escalation in US–Iran tensions could trigger an Oil price shock, reviving global inflation and hurting Asia’s net Oil importers.

18:34 UK: Data and surveys preview – Deutsche Bank Deutsche Bank outlines a busy UK data calendar, expecting stronger Net Consumer Credit, a partial rebound in Mortgage Approvals to 64.5k, and unchanged PMI Manufacturing and Services at 52.0 and 53.9.

18:23 Turkey: Growth resilience and inflation risks – ING ING’s Muhammet Mercan projects Turkey’s 4Q25 GDP growth at 3.9%, implying 3.8% for 2025, underpinned by domestic demand but with some quarterly loss of momentum.

17:59 Russia Industrial Output fell from previous 3.7% to -0.8% in December Russia Industrial Output fell from previous 3.7% to -0.8% in December

17:48 Sweden: Gradual improvement with elevated unemployment – Nordea Nordea’s Anna Westlund reports that Swedish employment has been rising since early 2025, with BAS and LFS data both showing a positive trend.

17:14 MXN: Policy easing signals and resilient currency – Societe Generale Societe Generale analysts note that Deputy Governor Galia Borja signaled Banxico has room to resume rate cuts, pointing to weak domestic demand, falling investment and a stronger Peso.

17:01 Colombia National Jobless Rate: 10.9% (January) vs 8% Colombia National Jobless Rate: 10.9% (January) vs 8%

17:01 United States Construction Spending (MoM) fell from previous 0.5% to -0.2% in November United States Construction Spending (MoM) fell from previous 0.5% to -0.2% in November

17:00 United States Construction Spending (MoM) meets forecasts (0.3%) in December United States Construction Spending (MoM) meets forecasts (0.3%) in December

17:00 United States Construction Spending (MoM): 0.3% (November) vs previous 0.5% United States Construction Spending (MoM): 0.3% (November) vs previous 0.5%

16:45 United States Chicago PMI came in at 57.7, above forecasts (52.8) in February United States Chicago PMI came in at 57.7, above forecasts (52.8) in February

16:43 Oil: Geopolitics keep prices supported – Commerzbank Commerzbank’s Carsten Fritsch expects OPEC+ to only slightly increase Oil production from April, with Russia underproducing and Kazakhstan constrained, so a modest quota hike should not pressure prices.

16:25 US: Jobs data and Fed timing – ING ING’s James Knightley expects upcoming US ISM surveys to soften from January’s strength, reflecting weaker regional Federal Reserve signals.

16:14 USD/CAD holds steady as US PPI beats forecasts, Canadian GDP contracts USD/CAD trades around 1.3680 on Friday at the time of writing, virtually unchanged on the day, as investors digest a fresh batch of macroeconomic data from the United States (US) and Canada.

15:48 EUR/GBP gains mmid UK political jitters and dovish BoE bets The Euro (EUR) ticks higher against the British Pound (GBP) on Friday, with Sterling under broad pressure as renewed political uncertainty in the United Kingdom (UK) dampens investor sentiment.

15:32 Gold and Silver rise as US reportedly tells embassy staff in Israel to leave now Citing an email from Israel Ambassador Mike Huckabee, NBC News reported that some embassy staff were told that they could leave Israel and that they need to do so quickly.

15:30 United States Producer Price Index (YoY) came in at 2.9%, above forecasts (2.6%) in January United States Producer Price Index (YoY) came in at 2.9%, above forecasts (2.6%) in January

15:30 United States Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) came in at 3.6%, above forecasts (3%) in January United States Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) came in at 3.6%, above forecasts (3%) in January

15:30 United States Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) above expectations (0.3%) in January: Actual (0.8%) United States Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) above expectations (0.3%) in January: Actual (0.8%)

15:30 Canada Gross Domestic Product Annualized below expectations (0%) in 4Q: Actual (-0.6%) Canada Gross Domestic Product Annualized below expectations (0%) in 4Q: Actual (-0.6%)

15:30 Canada Gross Domestic Product (MoM) above expectations (0.1%) in December: Actual (0.2%) Canada Gross Domestic Product (MoM) above expectations (0.1%) in December: Actual (0.2%)

15:30 United States Producer Price Index (MoM) registered at 0.5% above expectations (0.3%) in January United States Producer Price Index (MoM) registered at 0.5% above expectations (0.3%) in January

15:30 Canada Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) dipped from previous 0.6% to -0.2% in 4Q Canada Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) dipped from previous 0.6% to -0.2% in 4Q

15:26 UK: Labour setback in Gorton-Denton by-election – TD Securities TD Securities’ Global Strategy Team notes a significant setback for Labour as the Green Party’s Hannah Spencer wins the Gorton-Denton by-election with over 40% of the vote, leaving Labour third.

15:00 Germany Consumer Price Index (YoY) below expectations (2%) in February: Actual (1.9%) Germany Consumer Price Index (YoY) below expectations (2%) in February: Actual (1.9%)

15:00 Russia Central Bank Reserves $ down to $797.2B from previous $806.1B Russia Central Bank Reserves $ down to $797.2B from previous $806.1B

15:00 Germany Consumer Price Index (MoM) registered at 0.2%, below expectations (0.5%) in February Germany Consumer Price Index (MoM) registered at 0.2%, below expectations (0.5%) in February

15:00 Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) below forecasts (0.5%) in February: Actual (0.4%) Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) below forecasts (0.5%) in February: Actual (0.4%)

15:00 Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) came in at 2% below forecasts (2.1%) in February Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) came in at 2% below forecasts (2.1%) in February

14:37 DXY: Stable range as metals decouple – BNY BNY's Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage highlights that the U.S. Dollar has remained in a 95–99 range even as the LME Metals Index has surged, breaking a long-standing negative correlation.

14:14 USD/CAD: Range seen intact above 1.3600 – BBH Brown Brothers Harriman's (BBH) Elias Haddad notes USD/CAD is directionless around 1.3675 ahead of Canada’s Q4 GDP release, with consensus expecting a modest contraction versus the Bank of Canada’s stall forecast.

14:06 Gold consolidates below $5,200 as traders weigh geopolitics, Fed rate outlook Gold (XAU/USD) consolidates with mild losses on Friday, as momentum stalls within this week’s established range.

14:03 Mexico Trade Balance s/a, $ fell from previous $-0.86B to $-1.248B in January Mexico Trade Balance s/a, $ fell from previous $-0.86B to $-1.248B in January

14:01 South Africa Trade Balance (in Rands) fell from previous 23.18B to 9.31B in January South Africa Trade Balance (in Rands) fell from previous 23.18B to 9.31B in January

14:00 Mexico Trade Balance, $ registered at $-6.481B, below expectations ($-2.2B) in January Mexico Trade Balance, $ registered at $-6.481B, below expectations ($-2.2B) in January

14:00 Brazil Mid-month Inflation came in at 0.84%, above expectations (0.6%) in February Brazil Mid-month Inflation came in at 0.84%, above expectations (0.6%) in February

13:47 USD: Fed on hold as core PCE surprises higher – Nordea Jan von Gerich at Nordea notes that US data flow has been light, but a December upside surprise in core PCE suggests price pressures may be easing more slowly than CPI implies.

13:30 India FX Reserves, USD dipped from previous $725.73B to $723.61B in February 16 India FX Reserves, USD dipped from previous $725.73B to $723.61B in February 16

13:21 When is the US PPI data for January and how could it affect EUR/USD? The United States (US) Producer Price Index (PPI) data for January is due for release today at 13:30 GMT.

13:05 EUR/GBP: Recovery builds above 200‑DMA – Societe Generale Societe Generale analysts note that EUR/GBP has rebounded from an interim low near 0.8610 and quickly reclaimed its 200‑DMA, suggesting limited downside momentum.

13:00 Portugal Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) came in at 0.9%, above expectations (0.8%) in 4Q Portugal Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) came in at 0.9%, above expectations (0.8%) in 4Q

13:00 Portugal Gross Domestic Product (YoY) in line with forecasts (1.9%) in 4Q Portugal Gross Domestic Product (YoY) in line with forecasts (1.9%) in 4Q

13:00 Ireland Retail Sales (MoM) up to 1.5% in January from previous -0.4% Ireland Retail Sales (MoM) up to 1.5% in January from previous -0.4%

13:00 Ireland Retail Sales (YoY) increased to 3% in January from previous -0.1% Ireland Retail Sales (YoY) increased to 3% in January from previous -0.1%

12:42 India Federal Fiscal Deficit, INR: 9814.07B (January) vs 8558.42B India Federal Fiscal Deficit, INR: 9814.07B (January) vs 8558.42B

12:31 India Gross Domestic Product Quarterly (YoY) came in at 7.8%, above forecasts (7.2%) in 4Q India Gross Domestic Product Quarterly (YoY) came in at 7.8%, above forecasts (7.2%) in 4Q

12:01 Greece Producer Price Index (YoY) dipped from previous -2.1% to -3.7% in January Greece Producer Price Index (YoY) dipped from previous -2.1% to -3.7% in January

12:01 Italy Trade Balance non-EU dipped from previous €8.385B to €2.124B in January Italy Trade Balance non-EU dipped from previous €8.385B to €2.124B in January

12:01 Belgium Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) below forecasts (0.2%) in 4Q: Actual (0.1%) Belgium Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) below forecasts (0.2%) in 4Q: Actual (0.1%)

11:59 Greece Retail Sales (YoY) up to 5.1% in December from previous 0.3% Greece Retail Sales (YoY) up to 5.1% in December from previous 0.3%

11:57 Eurozone: Inflation path keeps ECB comfortable – ING ING’s Bert Colijn notes Eurozone inflation fell to 1.7% in January on energy base effects and is expected to stay just under 2% through 2026, with core at 2.2% and close to target.

11:30 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Friday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $89.64 per troy ounce, up 0.90% from the $88.84 it cost on Thursday.

11:21 Germany Hesse CPI (YoY) rose from previous 2.1% to 2.2% in February Germany Hesse CPI (YoY) rose from previous 2.1% to 2.2% in February

11:21 Germany Hesse CPI (MoM) rose from previous 0% to 0.4% in February Germany Hesse CPI (MoM) rose from previous 0% to 0.4% in February

11:12 EUR/USD: Sideways trading as tariffs reshape outlook – Nordea Nordea’s Jan von Gerich notes that EUR/USD has traded largely sideways as markets digest the US Supreme Court ruling on tariffs and subsequent replacement levies.

11:08 Spain Current Account Balance rose from previous €0.21B to €1.8B in December Spain Current Account Balance rose from previous €0.21B to €1.8B in December

11:04 Germany Baden-Wuerttemberg CPI (MoM) rose from previous 0% to 0.2% in February Germany Baden-Wuerttemberg CPI (MoM) rose from previous 0% to 0.2% in February

11:02 Germany Baden-Wuerttemberg CPI (YoY) fell from previous 2.1% to 1.8% in February Germany Baden-Wuerttemberg CPI (YoY) fell from previous 2.1% to 1.8% in February

11:02 Germany Saxony CPI (MoM) up to 0.3% in February from previous 0% Germany Saxony CPI (MoM) up to 0.3% in February from previous 0%

11:02 Germany Saxony CPI (YoY) unchanged at 2.3% in February Germany Saxony CPI (YoY) unchanged at 2.3% in February

11:01 Italy Industrial Sales s.a. (MoM) climbed from previous -0.1% to 0.5% in December Italy Industrial Sales s.a. (MoM) climbed from previous -0.1% to 0.5% in December

11:01 Germany Brandenburg CPI (YoY) fell from previous 2.2% to 2% in February Germany Brandenburg CPI (YoY) fell from previous 2.2% to 2% in February

11:01 Germany Brandenburg CPI (MoM) rose from previous 0% to 0.4% in February Germany Brandenburg CPI (MoM) rose from previous 0% to 0.4% in February

11:01 Italy Industrial Sales n.s.a. (YoY) increased to 3.6% in December from previous 0% Italy Industrial Sales n.s.a. (YoY) increased to 3.6% in December from previous 0%

11:00 Germany North Rhine-Westphalia CPI (YoY) dipped from previous 2% to 1.8% in February Germany North Rhine-Westphalia CPI (YoY) dipped from previous 2% to 1.8% in February

11:00 Germany North Rhine-Westphalia CPI (MoM) rose from previous 0.1% to 0.2% in February Germany North Rhine-Westphalia CPI (MoM) rose from previous 0.1% to 0.2% in February

11:00 Germany Bavaria CPI (MoM) up to 0.2% in February from previous 0% Germany Bavaria CPI (MoM) up to 0.2% in February from previous 0%

11:00 Germany Bavaria CPI (YoY) fell from previous 2.1% to 1.9% in February Germany Bavaria CPI (YoY) fell from previous 2.1% to 1.9% in February

10:56 UK: Labour pressure and market risks – Rabobank Rabobank’s Stefan Koopman highlights growing political risks in the United Kingdom after the Gorton and Denton by-election, where Labour lost heavily to the Green Party and Reform UK.

10:55 Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. meets forecasts (6.3%) in January Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. meets forecasts (6.3%) in January

10:55 Germany Unemployment Change registered at 1K, below expectations (2K) in January Germany Unemployment Change registered at 1K, below expectations (2K) in January

10:37 EUR/GBP: Domestic UK risks support upside case – ING ING’s Francesco Pesole argues that UK political developments and policy risks are weighing on the Pound and supporting a bullish view on EUR/GBP.

10:28 GBP/USD Price Forecast: 20-day EMA acts as key barrier, downside likely below 1.3430 The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades marginally higher to near 1.3500 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Friday.

10:22 Forex Today: US Dollar stabilizes as market mood sours Here is what you need to know on Friday, February 27:

10:09 USD: Confidence erosion limits upside – Commerzbank Commerzbank’s Antje Praefcke argues that renewed tariff uncertainty under the US president is eroding long‑term confidence in the Dollar, even as upcoming US data such as ISM, ADP and NFP loom.

10:01 Spain Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) came in at 0.4%, above expectations (0.3%) in February Spain Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) came in at 0.4%, above expectations (0.3%) in February