ไทม์ไลน์ข่าวสาร forex

23:54 NZD/USD Price Analysis: Kiwi clings to 0.5730 zone as moving averages pressure builds
The NZD/USD pair was seen trading around the 0.5730 zone following a mildly positive performance on Tuesday’s session ahead of Asia.

NZD/USD was seen trading near the 0.5730 area after mild gains on Tuesday.The pair remains trapped under key moving averages, with limited momentum as buyers struggle for control.A break below the 0.5730 confluence may open room toward lower support zones.The NZD/USD pair was seen trading around the 0.5730 zone following a mildly positive performance on Tuesday’s session ahead of Asia. Despite holding slightly in the green, the pair showed limited traction and continues to face resistance from a cluster of key technical levels, preventing a stronger upside move. From a technical standpoint, the pair is locked in a battle with both the 20-day and 100-day Simple Moving Averages, which currently converge near 0.5730. The inability to decisively clear this area keeps the Kiwi in a delicate position, with a break below likely to tilt the short-term bias in favor of sellers. Momentum indicators remain mixed, with no strong directional signals emerging from the MACD or Relative Strength Index for now. On the downside, a sustained move beneath the 0.5730 confluence zone could expose the pair to further declines, targeting supports around 0.5680 and 0.5650. On the flip side, if bulls regain control, resistance awaits near 0.5780, followed by a stronger ceiling around 0.5820, which would need to be breached to confirm a more meaningful bullish reversal. NZD/USD daily chart

23:33 AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Pair trades mid-range with mixed signals
The AUD/JPY pair was seen around the 94.40 zone after the European session on Tuesday, registering a mild decline and sitting roughly at the midpoint of the day’s trading range.

AUD/JPY was seen trading near the 94.40 zone after slipping slightly during Tuesday’s session.Despite short-term bullish signals, overall sentiment remains neutral as key momentum indicators show no clear direction.Support aligns near 94.30 and 94.20, while resistance stands around 94.55 and 95.25.The AUD/JPY pair was seen around the 94.40 zone after the European session on Tuesday, registering a mild decline and sitting roughly at the midpoint of the day’s trading range. While short-term moving averages and some momentum tools lean bullish, longer-term trend signals and broader oscillators suggest that the pair is locked in a neutral stance heading into the Asian session. Technically, the MACD suggests a buy signal, while the standard Relative Strength Index (14) is flat at 49.41, consistent with a neutral outlook. The combined RSI and stochastic indicator also reads at 74.91, flashing a neutral tone and suggesting that directional momentum is currently absent. The Bull Bear Power sits at 0.878, reinforcing the lack of conviction from either side. Looking at trend-based indicators, the 20-day Simple Moving Average at 93.84 supports a bullish short-term outlook. However, the 100-day SMA at 97.03 and the 200-day SMA at 98.85 remain far above current levels, suggesting that the broader trend bias still leans to the downside. The Ichimoku Base Line around 94.31 also sits in neutral territory, reinforcing the consolidative backdrop. In terms of key levels, immediate support is found at 94.308 and extends to 94.20, where buyers may look to stabilize any further weakness. On the upside, resistance comes into play at 94.55 and 94.59, with a more significant hurdle standing around the 95.24 zone. A break above that area could tilt the balance toward the bulls, while sustained pressure below 94.30 might gradually shift sentiment downward. AUD/JPY daily chart

23:18 Australian Dollar gains capped near 0.6300 ahead of CPI and pre-election budget
The Australian Dollar (AUD) attempted a rebound on Tuesday, with AUD/USD recovering toward the 0.6300 mark during the American session.

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The uptick, however, appeared modest and capped as the pair struggled to gain follow-through amid uncertainty around global trade developments, a cautious US Dollar (USD) backdrop and mixed technical signals. Price action unfolded in a tight range as investors assessed prospects for Australian fiscal policy ahead of the upcoming federal budget and closely monitored developments in US tariff policy. The broader outlook for the Aussie remains fragile, but expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may already have priced in near-term rate moves and stronger-than-expected domestic data continue to offer modest support. Daily digest market movers: Australian Dollar steadies as traders eye CPI data and budget The AUD extended Monday’s gains and stabilized around the 0.6300 zone as traders digested recent improvements in risk sentiment while preparing for a key domestic data week. Preliminary PMI figures and reduced tariff anxiety helped reduce some pressure on risk-linked currencies, despite persistent global trade frictions. Market focus has shifted to the upcoming release of Australia’s Monthly CPI Indicator for February, expected on March 26, and the 2025–26 Federal Budget, due March 25. With national elections legally required by mid-May, the Budget is seen as a potential turning point in economic strategy. Polls suggest a close race between the current Labor government and the center-right opposition. The US Dollar lost some ground, giving up part of last week’s advance. However, the Greenback remained firm overall as Federal Reserve (Fed) officials continue to highlight persistent inflation risks, while signaling caution in the path forward for rate cuts. The central bank held interest rates steady last week but revised inflation forecasts higher and trimmed GDP expectations. Across the Pacific, the RBA remains in wait-and-see mode. Although the central bank cut its cash rate by 25 basis points in February, officials—including Governor Michele Bullock—have stressed that further action will hinge on upcoming inflation trends, while Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser warned against assuming rapid rate cuts. Markets continue to price in a moderate easing cycle, possibly beginning mid-year. Net speculative positions in the Australian Dollar remain firmly negative, reflecting continued bearish sentiment. According to CFTC data, short bets on the Aussie rose to multi-week highs as of mid-March, with investors reacting to external uncertainties and commodity-driven headwinds. AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Recovery capped as mixed signals cloud short-term outlook The pair was last seen trading near the 0.6300 threshold, managing to edge higher but showing signs of exhaustion. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has turned negative, printing a fresh red bar and signaling fading bullish momentum. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) climbed to 49, mildly rising but still lodged in bearish territory. Additional indicators present a divided picture. While the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) and Bull Bear Power are neutral, both the 10-day EMA and 10-day SMA sit just above the current price, signaling immediate resistance. On the flip side, the 20-day SMA is supportive, hinting at a soft technical floor. Resistance levels are observed around 0.6308 to 0.6325, which coincides with short-term moving averages and a recent congestion area. Support is located near 0.6305, with deeper layers at 0.6298 and 0.6275, the latter acting as a base during last week’s slide. While Tuesday’s recovery shows promise, the outlook remains cautious. The mixed setup of short-term and longer-term moving averages suggests a limited upside unless a decisive break above 0.6330 unfolds. Traders may stay defensive ahead of Wednesday’s inflation data and key fiscal updates out of Australia. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

22:57 United States API Weekly Crude Oil Stock climbed from previous 4.593M to 4.6M in March 21
United States API Weekly Crude Oil Stock climbed from previous 4.593M to 4.6M in March 21

22:30 Gold price rises as US yields drop on stagflation fears
Gold price advances on Tuesday as the US Dollar (USD) remains on the back foot and amid falling US real yields, which typically correlate inversely to bullion prices.

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An unexpected rise in inflation expectations, spurred by US trade policies, boosted demand for the yellow metal, which is gaining 0.26%, trading at $3,018. The market mood is mixed, with US equity indices split between gainers and losers. US data revealed that Consumer Confidence fell to its lowest level in more than four years as households fear a future recession amid elevated inflation readings, according to the Conference Board (CB). This paints a stagflationary outlook. Therefore, the yellow metal edged higher as recent data paints a stagflationary economic outlook. Elsewhere, some Federal Reserve Fed) officials crossed the wires. Governor Adriana Kugler stated that goods inflation has risen, noting that some subcategories have shown signs of reaccelerating. Last but not least, New York Fed President John Williams remarked that both companies and households are facing increased uncertainty about the economic outlook, reflecting growing concerns about future conditions. The money market has priced in 64.5 basis points of Fed easing in 2025, according to Prime Market Terminal interest rate probabilities data. Source: Prime Market Terminal Daily digest market movers: Gold price underpinned by high inflation expectations The US 10-year T-note yield is down three basis points (bps) at 4.308%. US real yields drop three bps to 1.956% according to US 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yields. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the Greenback against a basket of six currencies, drops 0.15% to 104.15. The CB Consumer Confidence in March fell from 100.1 to 92.9, missing estimates of 94. According to the CB, write-in responses to the survey showed “worries about the impact of trade policies and tariffs in particular are on the rise.” On Monday, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic stated that he supports only one rate cut this year and doesn’t expect inflation to return to target until around 2027. XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold price advances past $3,010 The uptrend in Gold remains in play, though buyers are lacking the conviction to achieve a daily close above the current week’s high of $3,036, which could exacerbate a test of the record high price at $3,057. A breach of the latter will pave the way for testing $3,100. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bullish, with momentum backing buyers. Therefore, a further upside in Bullion prices is seen. On the other hand, if XAU/USD drops below $3,000, this will expose the February 24 swing high at $2,956, followed by the $2,900 mark and the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,874. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

21:50 US President Donald Trump vows that tariffs will create jobs
United States (US) President Donald Trump spoke to reporters on Tuesday, reiterating his insistence that his administration's tariff proposals will increase government revenues, create jobs, and counter-intuitively lower taxes, three key components of all government trade policy that tend to move in opposite directions of each other.

United States (US) President Donald Trump spoke to reporters on Tuesday, reiterating his insistence that his administration's tariff proposals will increase government revenues, create jobs, and counter-intuitively lower taxes, three key components of all government trade policy that tend to move in opposite directions of each other. Trump also reiterated that the European Union (EU) has been "unfair" to the US on trade terms, though Donald Trump categorically refuses to go into exact details of this claim. Key highlights Mexico and Canada have stepped it up a lot. We've made a lot of progress on Ukraine. We are in deep discussions with Russia and Ukraine, and it's going well. Making a lot of progress on the Middle East. Russia and Ukraine will get together on a maritime ceasefire. Other countries are involved in the process for monitoring the ceasefire. There's another business announcement coming tomorrow. The EU has been freeloading and is terrible on trade. I have been very fair on tariffs. April 2 tariffs are "set". Prices on gasoline, eggs, and groceries are down. Tariffs will create more jobs.

21:30 Forex Today: UK inflation figures take centre stage along with the Spring statement
The Greenback’s recovery took a breather on Tuesday, allowing some recovery in the risk-associated universe, while tariff concerns remained well in place as well as speculation of an economic slowdown in the US economy.

The Greenback’s recovery took a breather on Tuesday, allowing some recovery in the risk-associated universe, while tariff concerns remained well in place as well as speculation of an economic slowdown in the US economy.Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, March 26: The US Dollar Index (DXY) gave away part of the multi-day recovery and briefly pierced the 104.00 support amid mixed US yields across the board. The weekly MBA’s Mortgage Applications are due, seconded by Durable Goods Orders, and the EIA’s weekly repor on US crude oil stockpiles.EUR/USD could not sustain the earlier advance and eventually added to the ongoing multi-day decline. The ECB’s Cipollone is only due to speak.GBP/USD added to the promising start to the week and rose further north of the 1.2900 barrier. Investors’ attention will be on the UK Inflation Rate and the Spring Economic Statement by Chancellor Reeves.USD/JPY came under strong downside pressure soon after hitting fresh tops in the boundaries of the 151.00 hurdle. The final Coincident Index and Leading Economic Index will be published.AUD/USD picked up extra pace and surpassed the 0.6300 mark, advancing to three-day highs. The focus is expected to be on the RBA’s Monthly CPI Indicator.WTI prices could not sustain the early move to new three-week highs, succumbing to the selling mood and revisiting the sub-$69.00 region amid supply concerns.Prices of Gold regained composure, reversed three daily drops in a row and reclaimed the $3,030 region per troy ounce. Silver prices rallied to three-day peaks near the $34.00 mark per ounce.

20:44 US Dollar faces choppy trade as policy outlook and tariffs fuel caution
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is experiencing mixed performance on Tuesday, trading around the middle of the 104.00 zone.

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Earlier in the day, the Greenback found support on stronger services activity and signs that proposed tariffs may be more targeted than feared. However, uncertainty returned as new headlines from US policymakers tempered the optimism. The evolving rhetoric on inflation and trade created a back-and-forth movement in the DXY, now grappling with nearby resistance. From a technical standpoint, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) prints a mild buy signal, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is neutral. Despite improving momentum, key Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) suggest the broader setup still leans bearish. Daily digest market movers: Sentiment weighs on US Dollar after earlier tariff optimism The DXY trades in a tight range around the mid-104s, struggling to sustain upside after testing higher early Tuesday. President Trump hinted at exemptions for certain countries from April tariffs, raising hopes of limited global trade fallout. Trump also reaffirmed upcoming tariffs on aluminum, autos and pharmaceuticals, keeping markets alert for trade-related volatility. Fed Governor Adriana Kugler flagged fresh inflation pressures, noting worrying trends in select goods categories. The New York Fed’s John Williams said both firms and households are navigating deep uncertainty about economic prospects. Despite neutral tones from both Fed officials, traders see inflation fears potentially slowing the pace of rate cuts. This Friday’s Core PCE data remains the key event with markets closely watching the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator. Technical analysis: DXY hesitates below key barriers despite improving momentum The US Dollar Index trades with caution near the 104.00 handle, reflecting a balance between softening sentiment and residual optimism from Monday’s gains. The MACD currently prints a mild buy signal at -0.774, supported by a positive 10-day momentum reading. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at a neutral 40.20, suggesting the pair is not oversold but lacking strong bullish conviction. The combined RSI/Stochastic indicator also reflects hesitation, reading just above 96. Despite these hints of recovery, the broader outlook remains under pressure. The 20-day, 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) — at 104.53, 106.74, and 104.93 respectively — continue to trend lower. The 30-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) and SMAs (both above 105.00) reinforce a heavy overhead zone. On the downside, support is seen at 104.02 and 103.76, while resistance lies around 104.30, 104.53 and 104.54. The index may need a strong macro catalyst to break free from this congested range. Interest rates FAQs What are interest rates? Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation. How do interest rates impact currencies? Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. How do interest rates influence the price of Gold? Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold. What is the Fed Funds rate? The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.

20:37 Dow Jones Industrial Average churns as momentum withers
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) stuck in place on Tuesday, adrift near the 42,500 level after a another sharp decline in CB Consumer Confidence survey results broke a near-term bullish recovery in stock prices.

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Sentiment surveys continue to get weighed down by policy and tariff uncertainty, keeping risk appetite tepid as investors await signs or stability in both economic conditions and US trade policy. According to the US Conference Board (CB), one-year consumer inflation expectations have risen yet again, rising to 6.2% in March versus February’s 5.8%. According to the CB, consumers remain overwhelmingly concerned about the still-high price of staple household goods like eggs, and overarching concerns about potential inflation fallout from the Trump administration’s tariffs. The CB’s consumer confidence survey of future economic expectations also dropped to a new 12-year low on March, falling to 65.2 and tumbling well below the 80.0 mark that typically forecasts a possible recession. Adding insult to injury, the Moody’s ratings agency released a noted early Tuesday warning that the US’s fiscal strength has “deteriorated”, specifically highlighting the increasing unaffordability of US debt servicing. Going further, Moody’s noted that US fiscal strength is heading for a multi-year decline, a statement that is likely to anger Donald Trump and his administration, who are actively pursuing a large debt limit increase from Congress. Stocks news Despite a raft of cautionary data and notes on Tuesday, investor sentiment remains relatively stable heading into the middle of the trading week. The Dow Jones remains stubbornly stuck to the 42,500 region, and the Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P) index was also flat, treading water near 5,760. The Nasdaq Composite index rose around one-quarter of one percent to 18,230 as tech stocks recover their footing, but not enough to drag the rest of the equity market higher.Read more stock news: Apple stock rises as Nvidia sheds weightDow Jones price forecast The Dow Jones Industrial Average has run out of gas in the near term, with intraday bids stuck to the 42,500 level. Price action still leans in favor of buyers after the DJIA recovered back to the top side of the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near the 42,000 major price handle, but bidders may be poised to take a breather. Technical oscillators show bulls still have some room to run, but its a steep climb to recover record highs north of 45,000. On the low end, a backslide could mean an extended decline back below the latest swing low into 40,660. Dow Jones 5-minute chart Dow Jones daily chart Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.

19:35 Mexican Peso slips despite strong Retail Sales, Banxico dovish bets weigh
The Mexican Peso (MXN) dips against the US Dollar (USD) in early trading during Tuesday’s North American session, as the emerging market currency fails to advance following a strong Retail Sales report for January, released by the Instituto Nacional de Estadística, Geografía e Informática (INEGI).

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At the time of writing, USD/MXN exchange rate is 20.07, up 0.24%. The Peso remains on the defensive, even though the Greenback posts losses, as depicted by the US Dollar Index (DXY). The DXY, which measures the performance of the American currency against other six, falls 0.23% and clings to the 104.00 figure. INEGI reported that consumers continue to spend at a good pace, as revealed by Retail Sales. Nevertheless, January’s economic contraction and the dip in mid-month inflation in March had increased the odds that Banco de Mexico (Banxico) would reduce interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) at its Thursday meeting, from 9.50% to 9%. The Citi Expectations Survey revealed that most private economists expect Banxico to reduce rates by 50 basis points. According to the survey, Mexico’s primary reference rate is expected to end 2025 at 8%, down from 8.25%. Given the backdrop, further upside is seen in USD/MXN. However, if US President Donald Trump makes tariff exemptions to Mexico, the outlook for the economy could improve. Hence, the Peso could strengthen and exert downward pressure on the exotic pair. Ahead this week, Mexico’s docket will feature the Balance of Trade and Banxico’s interest rate decision. Across the border, the US schedule will feature the release of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. Daily digest market movers: Mexican Peso drops ahead of imminent Banxico rate cut Mexico’s Retail Sales in January grew by 0.6% MoM, up from December’s 0.1% and estimates of 0.1%. In the twelve months to January, sales rose by 2.7%, up from a contraction of 0.2%, crushing forecasts of 1.1%. On Monday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the first half of March dipped compared to estimates on both a monthly and annual basis. Core inflation stood within Banxico’s target of 3% plus or minus 1% on inflation. The Citi Mexico Expectations Survey revealed that analysts expect interest rates to end at 8% in 2025, down from 8.25% in the previous release. USD/MXN is expected to end at 20.98, down from 21.00 in the last survey. Inflation expectations remained anchored in the high 3% range, while GDP is foreseen to expand by 0.6%, down from 0.8% in the last survey. Traders had priced the Fed to ease policy by 65 basis points (bps) throughout the year, as revealed by data from the Chicago Board of Trade. USD/MXN technical outlook: Mexican Peso loses traction as USD/MXN rises past 20.10 USD/MXN trade has been choppy, consolidating around the 20.00–20.20 range for the last couple of days, with neither buyers nor sellers able to break the range. It’s worth noting that the pair is tilted to the downside after sellers cleared strong support at the 50 and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at 20.38, 20.22, which exacerbated the downtrend below 20.20. For a bearish continuation, a drop below 20.00 is needed. If cleared, nothing is in the way to test the 200-day SMA at 19.70, followed by the September 18 swing low of 19.06. On the other hand, if bulls clear the 20.20 mark, the USD/MXN pair would be poised to test the confluence of the 100 and 50-day SMAs, ahead of the 20.50 area. Mexican Peso FAQs What key factors drive the Mexican Peso? The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity. How do decisions of the Banxico impact the Mexican Peso? The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. How does economic data influence the value of the Mexican Peso? Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Mexican Peso? As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

19:19 Ukraine pivots to accept limited peace deal
President of the Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced on Tuesday that Ukraine would be immediately implementing a proposed ceasefire that would see both Ukraine and Russia stop targeting energy infrastructure as Vladimir Putin pushes on with his three-day invasion of Ukraine which has stretched into 1,125 days and still counting.

President of the Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced on Tuesday that Ukraine would be immediately implementing a proposed ceasefire that would see both Ukraine and Russia stop targeting energy infrastructure as Vladimir Putin pushes on with his three-day invasion of Ukraine which has stretched into 1,125 days and still counting. The interim peace deal, which is being spearheaded by US delegates sent by US President Donald Trump, still lacks specific terms for what will happen if Russia violates the terms, and the Russian Kremlin is stressing that the limited ceasefire only has a lifespan of 30 days, and have arbitrarily chosen a start date of March 18. Key highlights Zelenskyy: Ukraine to implement partial ceasefire now. Zelenskyy: Ukraine’s understanding is that the agreed ceasefire is effective immediately following the US announcement. Zelenskyy: The agreement does not specify actions if Russia breaks ceasefire, Ukraine will appeal to the US directly in such a case. Zelenskyy: I will ask Trump for weapons and new russian sanctions if Moscow breaks the ceasefire. Kremlin: Russia and the US are to discuss energy ceasefire implementation. Kremlin: Russia and the US have agreed to develop measures to halt strikes on Russian and Ukrainian energy facilities for a period of 30 days starting from March 18. Kremlin: Russia confirms that Moscow has agreed to ensure safe navigation in Black Sea. Kremlin: Black Sea deal to start after some sanctions lifted. White House: The US and Russia agree on safe navigation in the Black Sea. White House: The US and Russia agree to implement a ban on striking energy facilities. White House: We're working with Russia toward durable and lasting peace. White House: The US and Russia agreed to measures to implement the agreement to ban strikes against energy facilities in Russia and Ukraine. White House: The US will continue facilitating negotiations between both sides.

19:06 United States 2-Year Note Auction down to 3.984% from previous 4.169%
United States 2-Year Note Auction down to 3.984% from previous 4.169%

17:58 EUR/USD Price Analysis: Bulls maintain control near mid-range despite mixed momentum
The EUR/USD pair was seen trading around the 1.0800 area during Tuesday’s session after the European close, holding modest gains on the day.

EUR/USD was seen around the 1.0800 zone after rising modestly following the European session on Tuesday.Despite neutral momentum indicators and a sell MACD signal, the broader trend remains bullish above key moving averages.Support lies near 1.0790 and 1.0764, while resistance awaits around 1.0830 and 1.0865.The EUR/USD pair was seen trading around the 1.0800 area during Tuesday’s session after the European close, holding modest gains on the day. Despite a subdued intraday range, the overall outlook remains bullish as the pair sits comfortably above its key moving averages. Momentum indicators remain mixed, suggesting limited short-term conviction, yet broader trend signals support the bullish bias. The Relative Strength Index (14) is currently neutral at 59.26, while the Stochastic %K (14, 3, 3) reads 51.66, both indicating a lack of strong momentum in either direction. The combined RSI/Stochastic reading also reflects a neutral setup, signaling some hesitation in the recent upside momentum. However, the MACD presents a mild sell signal, which could suggest a brief pause or consolidation. Despite these neutral momentum indicators, the trend picture remains constructive. The pair is comfortably above its 20-day SMA (1.07589), 100-day SMA (1.05209), and 200-day SMA (1.07290). Additionally, bullish signals from the 30-day EMA (1.07019) and SMA (1.06600) continue to underpin the upside structure. These levels form a strong technical foundation, reinforcing buyers’ control in the medium term. On the downside, immediate support is located around 1.07913, followed by 1.0764 and the 20-day SMA at 1.07589. Resistance sits at 1.08297—today’s upper range boundary—and 1.08657, which marks a potential upside breakout zone if momentum returns. As long as EUR/USD holds above the 1.0750/1.0730 zone, the outlook remains skewed to the upside. EUR/USD daily chart

17:19 GBP/USD climbs as tariff relief boosts market mood, all eyes on UK CPI
The Pound Sterling advances against the US Dollar on Tuesday due to an upbeat market mood, as traders are relieved of US reciprocal tariffs, which are expected to be targeted on some of the US trading partners.

17:05 White House: US and Russia agree to ban strikes against energy facilities of Russia and Ukraine
In a statement released on Tuesday, the White House noted that the US and Russia agreed to measures for implementing the agreement to ban strikes against energy facilities of Russia and Ukraine, per Reuters.

In a statement released on Tuesday, the White House noted that the US and Russia agreed to measures for implementing the agreement to ban strikes against energy facilities of Russia and Ukraine, per Reuters. Key takeaways "US and Russia agreed to ensure safe navigation in the Black Sea." "US and Russia will continue working toward achieving a durable and lasting peace." "US will continue facilitating negotiations between both sides." "US will help restore Russia's access to the world market for agricultural and fertilizer exports." "US and Ukraine agreed to US-committed help to achieve the exchange of prisoners of war." "US and Ukraine agreed to US-committed return of forcibly transferred Ukrainian children." "US and Ukraine agreed to develop measures for implementing the agreement to ban strikes against energy facilities of Russia and Ukraine." "US and Ukraine will continue working toward achieving a durable and lasting peace." Market reaction The market mood remains relatively upbeat following this development. At the time of press, the S&P 500 Index was up 0.3% on the day.

16:49 IEA: Energy demand rise at an above-average rate in 2024, but oil falls back – Commerzbank
In its Global Energy Review published yesterday, the IEA identified trends for 2024 that are likely to continue this year, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht reports.

In its Global Energy Review published yesterday, the IEA identified trends for 2024 that are likely to continue this year, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht reports. Oil's share of global energy consumption falls to a historical low "It was primarily the sharp global increase in electricity demand (2024: +4.3% year-on-year) that drove overall energy demand (+2.2%). The latter therefore increased faster than in previous years, with emerging markets being the most important drivers of demand." "Last year's record temperatures pushed up the demand for air conditioning, but the advance of electric mobility and the expansion of data centres and artificial intelligence are also causing demand for electricity to rise sharply." "Renewables and nuclear energy have made the greatest contributions to covering the increasing demand, while the contribution of fossil fuels has declined. Oil's share of global energy consumption fell to a historical low of less than 30%, compared to a peak of 46% fifty years ago. Among fossil fuels, gas is the best performer."

16:44 Oil prices benefit from tensions in the Middle East and new US sanctions – Commerzbank
Last week, oil prices recorded their strongest weekly gain since the beginning of January.

Last week, oil prices recorded their strongest weekly gain since the beginning of January. The Brent oil price thus almost made up for the losses since the beginning of March. The current escalation in the Middle East provided a tailwind, as this justifies a certain risk premium on the oil price, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch reports. Prospect of higher OPEC+ oil supply to limit the upside potential for oil prices "The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip seems to be on the verge of collapse and the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon is also at risk of being put to the test following reciprocal rocket attacks. The recent US attacks on Houthi rebel positions in Yemen could also draw Iran back into the Middle East conflict, as it is supporting the Houthis as a proxy in the fight against Israel. The US government also tightened oil sanctions against Iran last week, including an independent Chinese refinery on the sanctions list for the first time. This could also deter other potential buyers of Iranian oil." "US President Trump also indicated yesterday that countries that buy oil and gas from Venezuela will be subject to a 25% tariff on all trade with the US from 2 April. Oil prices rose further as a result. This is the most serious sanction threat Trump has made on the oil market to date. Venezuela recently produced a good 900 thousand to just under 1 million barrels per day, depending on the data source, meaning that Venezuela's oil production has doubled since the end of 2020. The last time it was higher was six years ago." "However, the prospect of higher oil supply from OPEC+ is likely to limit the upside potential for oil prices. In addition, Reuters reported yesterday, citing four informed sources, that OPEC+ also intends to stick to the expansion of oil production planned for May. The production cuts in some countries to compensate for previous excess production are also said to provide scope for this."

16:32 USD/JPY tumbles below 150.00 as Yen outperforms across the board
The USD/JPY pair falls significantly to near 149.70 during North American trading hours on Tuesday.

16:26 Record high price level causes considerable slowdown in Indian Gold demand – Commerzbank
The high Gold price also has its negative aspects, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch reports.

The high Gold price also has its negative aspects, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch reports. There is a risk of a sharper price correction "Swiss Gold exports to the most important Asian demand countries, which fell to almost zero in February, had already signalled this. News from India provides further confirmation in this regard. According to this, private households there are turning towards selling Gold jewellery and Gold coins in order to cash in on the record-high prices." "These reached almost 90,000 rupees per 10 grams last week. Since the import tax was reduced in July 2024, the local Gold price in India has risen by a good 32%. If the current price level persists, the president of the Indian Bullion and Jewellers Association expects demand for Gold in India to fall by more than 30% this year." "According to traders, the current wedding season is not even bringing in half the usual customer traffic for jewellers. These warning signs should not be ignored as they highlight the high reliance of the Gold price on investors. If investor interest wanes, there is a risk of a sharper price correction."

16:23 Gold price rise buoyed by strong investor interest – Commerzbank
The Gold price rise to a record high of $3,057 per troy ounce last week was strongly buoyed by strong buying interest from investors, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch reports.

The Gold price rise to a record high of $3,057 per troy ounce last week was strongly buoyed by strong buying interest from investors, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch reports. Gold ETFs have been very popular of late "According to the CFTC, speculative net long positions rose strongly for the first time in two months in the last reporting week. Gold ETFs have also been very popular of late. The world's largest and most liquid Gold ETF recorded inflows on eight of the last nine trading days up to and including Friday." "On Friday, an increase of more than 20 tons in the holdings of the aforementioned ETF was reported, which corresponded to the strongest daily inflow in a month. Yesterday, there were slight outflows for the first time in ten days, which is likely related to better-than-expected US economic data and a resulting reduction in Fed rate cut expectations."

16:04 US CB Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 92.9 in March
U.S. consumer sentiment extended its decline in March, as the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell from 98.3 to 92.9—its weakest reading since February 2021.

US CB Consumer Confidence Index declined further in March.The US Dollar Index trades on the defensive near recent lows.
U.S. consumer sentiment extended its decline in March, as the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell from 98.3 to 92.9—its weakest reading since February 2021.Market reactionThe US Dollar (USD) is coming under renewed selling pressure, causing the US Dollar Index (DXY) to challenge the key 104.00 support on Tuesday, halting a four-day positive streak.

16:00 United States Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index below expectations (8) in March: Actual (-4)
United States Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index below expectations (8) in March: Actual (-4)

16:00 United States New Home Sales (MoM) came in at 0.676M, below expectations (0.68M) in February
United States New Home Sales (MoM) came in at 0.676M, below expectations (0.68M) in February

15:36 USD/CAD declines below 1.4300 as US Dollar slumps on Trump tariff woes
The USD/CAD pair falls sharply to near 1.4280 in North American trading hours on Tuesday.

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The Loonie pair declines as the US Dollar (USD) falls back after failing to hold onto Monday’s gains. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, slumps to near 103.95 after a four-day winning streak to near 104.45. US Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Euro. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.21% -0.24% -0.57% -0.31% -0.60% -0.31% -0.28% EUR 0.21% -0.03% -0.36% -0.11% -0.36% -0.11% -0.07% GBP 0.24% 0.03% -0.37% -0.07% -0.33% -0.07% -0.08% JPY 0.57% 0.36% 0.37% 0.26% 0.01% 0.26% 0.29% CAD 0.31% 0.11% 0.07% -0.26% -0.25% -0.00% -0.01% AUD 0.60% 0.36% 0.33% -0.01% 0.25% 0.26% 0.29% NZD 0.31% 0.11% 0.07% -0.26% 0.00% -0.26% -0.00% CHF 0.28% 0.07% 0.08% -0.29% 0.00% -0.29% 0.00% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). The Greenback falls sharply as United States (US) President Donald Trump has indicated that not all impending tariffs will be imposed on April 2. Trump said on Monday at the White House that he may give a "lot of countries" breaks on tariffs. It appears that various leaders of US trading partners have managed to negotiate deals with Trump. Though the Trump-led trade war is anticipated to result in an economic slowdown across the globe, war with fewer nations will limit the scope of economic turmoil. Limited disruption of Trump’s tariff policies has diminished the US Dollar’s appeal. On Monday, the upbeat flash S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) supported the US Dollar. A robust Services PMI data contributed to a significant growth in the overall business activity. The Services PMI rose at a faster pace to 54.3 in March, compared to estimates of 51.2 and the former reading of 51.0. This week, investors will focus on the US Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for February, which will be published on Friday. Investors will pay close attention to the inflation data as it is the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge. Though the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is outperforming the USD, it is less-likely to maintain the dominance as the Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem has indicated that the central bank will continue to maintain a dovish monetary policy stance despite a significant increase in the February’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. “Part of the February CPI release was expected,” and the “February data hasn't fundamentally changed our view,” Macklem said last week. He clarified that the recent increase in inflation is not driven by US tariffs. “We're not really seeing evidence yet that consumer prices are being affected by tariffs.” US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

15:26 Eurozone: PMIs rise on industrial optimism and frontloading – ABN AMRO
The eurozone composite PMI for March moved further into expansionary territory at 50.4 up from 50.2 in February.

The eurozone composite PMI for March moved further into expansionary territory at 50.4 up from 50.2 in February. In the final month of Q1 eurozone private sector activity increased further on the back of rising optimism in the German manufacturing sector as higher fiscal spending brightens Germany’s growth outlook. Consensus expected a slightly higher composite PMI, ABN AMRO's economists Jan-Paul van de Kerke and Bill Diviney report. US customers accelerate their eurozone industrial orders ahead of potential tariffs "The PMIs have now remained in expansionary territory for the full first quarter consistent with our expectation of GDP expanding by 0.3% in Q1 on the back of strong domestic demand due to rising real incomes and frontloading effects stemming from expected US tariffs. Indeed, the improvement in the eurozone manufacturing sector, moving closer to neutral levels, pushed up the eurozone composite PMI, while the expansion in the services sector moderated." "The manufacturing sector stands to gain from higher growth prospects as rising defence spending and fiscal largesse in Germany raise future demand for industrial goods. Particularly in Germany, weak domestic demand has been one factor contributing to the industrial malaise. In addition to the anticipated rise in future demand, temporary factors have driven up current output. With the output component entering expansionary territory for the first time since March 2023, the eurozone industrial sector may also be benefiting from US customers accelerating their eurozone industrial orders ahead of potential tariffs." "Zooming out, the PMI improving and moving further into expansionary territory is consistent with our GDP forecast for Q1. We have penciled in a 0.3% q/q rise in GDP in Q1 of 2025 after a rise of 0.2% q/q in the final quarter of 2024. High wage growth and easing inflation should further consumption, while exports stand to benefit temporarily from the aforementioned frontloading effects."

15:02 United States Redbook Index (YoY) increased to 5.6% in March 21 from previous 5.2%
United States Redbook Index (YoY) increased to 5.6% in March 21 from previous 5.2%

15:01 United States S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY) meets forecasts (4.7%) in January
United States S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY) meets forecasts (4.7%) in January

15:00 United States Housing Price Index (MoM) in line with expectations (0.2%) in January
United States Housing Price Index (MoM) in line with expectations (0.2%) in January

14:59 GBP tracks broader tone in the USD – Scotiabank
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is trading up a modest 0.2% vs. the USD and is a midperformer vs.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is trading up a modest 0.2% vs. the USD and is a midperformer vs. the G10, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. GBP/USD regains mid-1.29s "Relief on trade is offering support via sentiment in the absence of UK data, as market participants consider the positive shift in the US administration’s tone on tariffs and assess the implications for the broader European economic outlook." "GBP remains well supported in the lower-1.29 area, however the pound appears unable to extend Monday’s sharp intraday gains. A break of the mid-1.29s should allow for a near-term extension toward recent resistance around 1.3020."

14:56 EUR firm on data – Scotiabank
Germany’s IFO business sentiment release was in line with expectations on the headline print (86.7 vs.

Germany’s IFO business sentiment release was in line with expectations on the headline print (86.7 vs. 85.3 prev) and offered upside surprises on both the current assessment and expectations sub-indices, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. ECB hawks suggesting a pause "The data surprises follow Monday’s better than expected PMI’s, hinting to a possible improvement in the economic outlook for Germany and Europe more broadly. The improvement in soft data are helpful, as market participants consider a positive shift in the tone of trade-related headlines and specifically the possibility of ‘breaks’ on US auto tariffs." "ECB headlines have also leaned hawkish with comments from ECB Governing Council member Kazimir hinting to a pause in the central bank’s easing cycle." "EUR is trading flat vs. the USD, consolidating just above support around 1.08. The recent pullback appears to be stabilizing, but we’ll need to see a break through the mid-1.08s to consider the possibility of a renewed uptrend."

14:53 Fed’s Kugler: Goods price rise was “unhelpful”
Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler said on Tuesday that the central bank’s interest rate policy remains restrictive and well-positioned.

Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler said on Tuesday that the central bank’s interest rate policy remains restrictive and well-positioned. However, she noted that progress toward returning inflation to the 2% target has slowed since last summer, and described the recent uptick in goods inflation as "unhelpful."Key QuotesSees current fed policy as still restrictive; judges that policy is well positioned. It is estimated that 12-month PCE was 2.5% in February, based on CPI and PPI data. Progress on bringing inflation to target has slowed since last summer. Return of positive goods inflation is 'unhelpful' as it had helped keep a lid on total inflation and inflation expectations. Surveys show consumers expecting further increases in the near term, with uncertainty tied to trade policy. Paying close attention to acceleration of price increases and higher inflation expectations. Latest economic data for early this year have shown some signs of softness. Labour market appears to be stable through February; unemployment rate is low.

14:52 CAD nudges higher but scope for gains is limited – Scotiabank
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is little changed on the session, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is little changed on the session, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. USD/CAD remains strongly overvalued "Markets remain transfixed by the roll out of US tariffs next week amid somewhat conflicting signals from the White House. While officials had indicated that next week’s tariff announcement would focus on reciprocal tariffs, raising hopes that tariff action would be more narrowly defined, President Trump said that sectoral tariffs could be announced shortly (i.e., before the reciprocal tariffs)." "He later said that he might give 'a lot of countries' breaks on tariffs. That may sustain hopes that tariff action will be less painful for Canada perhaps and give the CAD a modest lift. The USD remains strongly overvalued relative to our equilibrium estimate (1.4166) but the CAD will not be able to strengthen materially until US tariff plans are clear." "The USD’s failure last week to hold gains through 1.44 remains the salient feature of the charts and continues to shade technical risks to the downside for spot, with funds extending losses through the 40-day MA (1.4334) to near yesterday’s 1.4290 low. A break below the 90 level should see USD losses edge towards support at 1.4240. Below there, the drop would target 1.4150/60 from late February. Resistance is 1.4330/40 and 1.44."

14:47 USD edges lower as markets await tariff news – Scotiabank
The US Dollar (USD) is slightly softer on the session. The USD benefitted from stronger than expected preliminary March US PMI data yesterday which fended off slowing growth concerns, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

The US Dollar (USD) is slightly softer on the session. The USD benefitted from stronger than expected preliminary March US PMI data yesterday which fended off slowing growth concerns, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. USD slips back as markets await clarity on tariffs "DXY gains extended through the low/mid 104 area but were tempered by comments from President Trump who indicated that sectoral tariffs (autos, pharma. Lumber, chips) might well be coming soon (after reports indicated that the administration was focused on reciprocal tariffs for the April 2nd announcement). He later conceded that many countries might get tariff concessions, however. The president also said he would like to see the Fed lower interest rates." "The DXY is tracking a little lower this morning, with the AUD leading gains among the core majors after the government unveiled surprise tax cuts in a pre-election budget. The EUR is a little firmer, while German bunds are underperforming, following comments from ECB hawks suggesting policymakers may pause the easing cycle in April. Speaking on Bloomberg yesterday, Stephen Miran, chair of the White House CEA said the president was focused on using tariffs to rebalance global trade." "Pressed on whether FX could be used as a lever, Miran said the idea could be entertained down the road. Intraday price action in the DXY looks toppish, with the 6-hour chart reflecting negative price patterns developing around the overnight peak at 104.47. Intraday losses through 104 should see strengthening, bearish pressure on the index develop. Housing data and Consumer Confidence (which may see a fourth consecutive drop) are the main US data releases."

14:01 Mexico Retail Sales (YoY) up to 2.7% in January from previous -0.2%
Mexico Retail Sales (YoY) up to 2.7% in January from previous -0.2%

14:00 Mexico Retail Sales (MoM) up to 0.6% in January from previous 0.1%
Mexico Retail Sales (MoM) up to 0.6% in January from previous 0.1%

13:53 US Pres. Trump considering two-step approach to tariff regime – FT
US President Donald Trump is planning to adopt a two-step approach as his tariff strategy, the Financial Times reported on Tuesday.

13:46 US Dollar falls slightly amidst new tariffs and US officials’ comments on Europe
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, has failed to break above 104.50 on earlier attempts.

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The US Dollar Index fails to break 104.50 after a brief test. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, has failed to break above 104.50 on earlier attempts. The index trades slightly above 104.00 at the time of writing os Tuesday, while markets assess two main stories. The first market driver comes from United States (US) President Donald Trump, who issued “secondary tariffs” of 25% on all goods from countries that still buy Oil from Venezuela. Trump eased off on the size and broadness of reciprocal tariffs that are set to kick in on April 2 and commented about adding more targeted tariffs on cars, aluminum, pharmaceuticals, chips and lumber, Bloomberg reports. Meanwhile, markets are looking for comments from the European bloc after a US news editor got invited by mistake to a Signal’s chat group with several Trump administration officials, including Vice President JD Vance, National Security Advisor Michael Waltz, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, among others. Comments from JD Vance towards Europe painted a clear picture of what and how he would like to see the EU being targeted with tariffs to pay for the US military actions against Houthi rebels, the Financial Times reports. The issue not only raises questions on the stance of the US towards Europe but also about security problems as a third-party chat application was used to discuss US military operations, weapon inventories and tactical plans. Daily digest market movers: German data offsettingIn early European trading, the German Institute for Economic Research (IFO) has released its Sentiment Index. The Current Assessment number came in at 85.7, beating the 85.5 expectation and the previous 85.0 reading. Around 12:40 GMT, Adriana D. Kugler of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve (Fed) is due to speak on the economic landscape and entrepreneurship at the US Hispanic Chamber of Commerce 2025 Legislative Summit. At 13:00 GMT, the Housing Price Index for January is due. Expectations are for a softer increase of 0.2% compared to the previous 0.4% reading. At 13:05 GMT, Fed Bank of New York President John Williams delivers opening remarks at the 2025 New York Fed Regional and Community Banking Conference at the New York Fed, New York. At 14:00 GMT, some US economic data will be released: The US Conference Board Consumer Confidence for March will be released. No forecast is available. New Home Sales are expected to climb to 0.68 million units in February compared to 0.657 million in January. The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index is expected to climb to 8 in March, coming from 6 the previous month and signalling a pickup in activity. Equities are mixed this Tuesday, with Chinese indices slumping. The Hang Seng closed over 2% lower. European equities are ticking up over 0.50%, while US futures are down by less than 0.50% on the day. According to the CME Fedwatch Tool, the probability of interest rates remaining at the current range of 4.25%-4.50% in May’s meeting is 89.2%. For June, the odds for borrowing costs being lower stand at 62.5%. The US 10-year yield trades around 4.35% after bonds sold off on Monday with the surge in equities. US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Contradictions and correlationsThe US Dollar Index (DXY) faces some selling pressure on Tuesday after a very early test to break above 104.50. The turnaround comes after US President Donald Trump issued more concerns and constraints on tariffs ahead of the deadline on April 2. The leaked messages from US Vice President JD Vance on Europe and other trade partners are an issue of concern for markets. With the weekly close above 104.00 last week, a large sprint higher towards the 105.00 round level could still occur, with the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) converging at that point and reinforcing this area as a strong resistance at 104.97. Once broken through that zone, a string of pivotal levels, such as 105.53 and 105.89, could limit the upward momentum. On the downside, the 104.00 round level could be considered the first nearby support. If that does not hold, the DXY risks falling back into that March range between 104.00 and 103.00. Once the lower end at 103.00 gives way, watch out for 101.90 on the downside. US Dollar Index: Daily Chart US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

13:10 USD/CHF Price Forecast: Continues to face pressure near 0.8850
The USD/CHF pair struggles to extend its upside above the key resistance of 0.8850 during European trading hours on Tuesday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/CHF struggles to break above 0.8850 as the US Dollar faces pressure.US President Trump indicated that he may exempt a lot of countries from tariffs, which he will unveil on April 2.The SNB cut its interest rates by 25 bps to 0.25% last week.The USD/CHF pair struggles to extend its upside above the key resistance of 0.8850 during European trading hours on Tuesday. The Swiss Franc pair ticks lower as the US Dollar (USD) struggles to gain further even though United States (US) President Donald Trump has signaled that come countries would manage to escape from tariffs, which he is scheduled to unveil on April 2. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, faces pressure while extending a four-day winning streak above 104.50 On Monday, US President Trump said at the White House that he may give a "lot of countries" breaks on tariffs. Trump reiterated that he is planning to announce tariffs on automobiles, lumber, and chips in a few days. A trade war by the US with fewer nations would result in a lower impact on its economic growth than investors had feared initially. The US Dollar had a sharp fall in the last months as investors worried that Trump’s economic policies could expose the US economy to a recession. Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc (CHF) is expected to remain under pressure as the outlook of the Swiss economy is uncertain due to external pressures. Last week, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) reduced interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 0.25% on Thursday. USD/CHF seems to revisit the four-month low of 0.8736 plotted from the December 6 low. The outlook of the pair is broadly bearish as it trades below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is around 0.8875. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) rises above 40.00, suggesting that bearish momentum is over. However, the bearish trend is intact. The asset could face more downside towards the November 8 low of 0.8700 and the November 6 low of 0.8620 if it falls below the December 6 low of 0.8736. On the flip side, a recovery move above the psychological support of 0.9000 would drive the asset towards the February 28 high of 0.9036, followed by the round-level resistance of 0.9100. USD/CHF daily chart US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

12:54 AUD/USD: Aussie government is expected to show spending restraint – BBH
AUD/USD is bullish just above 0.6300, BBH's FX analysts report.

AUD/USD is bullish just above 0.6300, BBH's FX analysts report. Australia must hold an election by May 17 "Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers will deliver a pre-election budget today. The government is expected to show spending restraint to avoid complicating the RBA’s job at curbing inflation pressures. Australia must hold an election by May 17 and the Labor government is almost neck-and-neck with the center-right opposition coalition in polls."

12:49 USD/JPY: BOJ to hike rates by less than 50bps by December 2025 – BBH
USD/JPY is up near a multi-week high just under 151.00 with the next big resistance offered at the 200-day moving average at 151.75, BBH's FX analysts report.

USD/JPY is up near a multi-week high just under 151.00 with the next big resistance offered at the 200-day moving average at 151.75, BBH's FX analysts report. Bar for an aggressive tightening cycle is high "The Bank of Japan (BOJ) published the minutes of the January 24 meeting. At that meeting, the BOJ raised the policy rate 25bps to 0.50%, in line with consensus, and reiterated it would continue to raise the policy interest rate if the outlook for economic activity and prices will be realized. Only Nakamura Toyoaki dissented on raising rates, which was not surprising as he also voted against raising rates last July." "A key takeaway from the minutes is that the bar for an aggressive tightening cycle is high. One member pointed out that 'it would be necessary for the Bank to carefully adjust its monetary policy while examining the impact of the policy interest rate hike on economic activity and prices at the time of each rate hike.'" "The swaps market continues to imply less than 50bps of rate BOJ hikes by December 2025 and terminal rate of 1.00% to 1.25% over the next two years."

12:45 Germany 5-y Note Auction up to 2.44% from previous 2.15%
Germany 5-y Note Auction up to 2.44% from previous 2.15%

12:35 S&P 500: Risk of continuation in decline is present – Societe Generale
S&P 500 has rebounded after forming interim support near 5500pts representing the 61.8% retracement from last August, Societe Generale's FX analysts report.

S&P 500 has rebounded after forming interim support near 5500pts representing the 61.8% retracement from last August, Societe Generale's FX analysts report. Gap-up level at 5710pts is first support "It has gapped up yesterday and is inching higher towards the lower limit of previous multi-month range. December low of 5810/5830pts and the 50-DMA near 5910pts are next short-term hurdles. If the index struggles to overcome these resistances, there could be risk of continuation in decline. Gap-up level at 5710pts is first support."

12:32 USD/CAD to tick down to 1.42 amid stretched short-CAD positioning – Danske Bank
In Canadian Dollar (CAD) FX space, the reaction to PM Carney's snap election, scheduled for April 28, has been quite muted so far, Danske Bank's FX analyst Jesper Fjärstedt reports.

In Canadian Dollar (CAD) FX space, the reaction to PM Carney's snap election, scheduled for April 28, has been quite muted so far, Danske Bank's FX analyst Jesper Fjärstedt reports. USD/CAD to target 1.45 on a 12-month horizon "This is due to the backdrop of markets having expected the election to be called soon along with uncertainty related to the impending tariffs on April 2." "Hence, tariffs continue to weigh heavily on USD/CAD. In the short term, we project USD/CAD to tick down to 1.42 amid stretched short-CAD positioning. Looking at longer horizons, we maintain our USD-positive view, targeting 1.45 on a 12-month horizon."

12:28 EUR/USD: Inability to overcome 1.0950 may lead to a pullback – Societe Generale
EUR/USD experienced a steep up move earlier this month and reclaimed its 200-DMA (now at 1.0725), Societe Generale's FX analysts report.

EUR/USD experienced a steep up move earlier this month and reclaimed its 200-DMA (now at 1.0725), Societe Generale's FX analysts report. 1.0760/1.0725 can be a short-term support zone "It has faced strong resistance near 1.0950. Daily MACD has dipped below its trigger line; this is not a reversal signal but points towards receding upward momentum. A brief pause can’t be ruled out after recent stretched move. Inability to overcome 1.0950 may lead to a pullback; the 200-DMA at 1.0760/1.0725 could be a short-term support zone."

12:26 Gold edges higher after Trump hints at more tariffs
Gold’s price (XAU/USD) stabilises near $3,020 at the time of writing on Tuesday as traders assess fresh tariff headlines from United States (US) President Donald Trump.

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US President Trump to impose more tariffs on cars and against countries buying Venezuelan Oil. Gold is still supported in the $3,000 region, though pressure is building for more downside. Gold’s price (XAU/USD) stabilises near $3,020 at the time of writing on Tuesday as traders assess fresh tariff headlines from United States (US) President Donald Trump. The president issued an executive order on Monday to impose “secondary tariffs” of 25% on all imports from those countries buying Oil from Venezuela, which would mean a sharp rise in levies on goods from China and India. On Monday, Trump said reciprocal tariffs will be eased off for countries meeting US requests on reshoring their businesses and factories. He went further and said tariffs on cars, aluminum and pharmaceuticals will be issued in the very near future. Trump also added that lumber and chips could be a potential tariff target as well. Daily digest market movers: Sector movesGold is finally drawing decent volumes into bullion-backed Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), in what has been one of the more interesting developments in commodities in the near end of the first quarter of 2025. If sustained, it augurs well for prices in the second quarter of the year, Bloomberg reports. In the takeover story between Australia’s Gold Road Resources and South Africa’s Gold Fields, Gold Road Resources chief executive Duncan Gibbs says a $3.3 billion takeover bid from Gold Fields is too low, describing the proposal from the Johannesburg-listed miner as extremely aggressive and hostile, Reuters reports. A proposal from the Trump administration to impose levies on Chinese-made ships entering US ports is sowing panic in the US agriculture industry, with farmers saying the added cost threatens to upend exports of wheat, corn and soyabeans, the Financial Times reports. Trump has come up with a new weapon of economic statecraft on Monday after threatening with “secondary tariffs” on countries that buy Oil from Venezuela to choke off its oil trade with other nations. This was triggering additional tariff concerns with markets seeing this as a secondary way to impose still vast amounts of tariffs without making them reciprocal, Bloomberg reports. Technical Analysis: Not defused yetThe bounce is getting underway this Tuesday after US President Trump’s comments about issuing ‘secondary’ tariffs. His administration is looking to ease off the reciprocal approach. This will make the entire assessment of levies and how to quantify them even more difficult. On the upside, the daily R1 resistance comes in at $3,028. Further up, the R2 resistance at $3,046 coincides with Friday’s high and the R1 resistance from Monday. This means that this level is a heavy barrier before pointing to the current all-time high at $3,057. On the downside, some red flags remain as the intraday S1 support stands at $2,997. That means the $3,000 mark is exposed and needs to act on its own as big support. There is no line of defense before to make sure any downturn is being slowed. Further down, the S2 support comes in at $2,984. XAU/USD: Daily Chart Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

12:22 EUR/USD rebounds as USD drops despite Trump’s tariff fears ease
EUR/USD finds cushion near 1.0780 during European trading hours on Tuesday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD finds support below 1.0800 as the US Dollar struggles to extend upside despite easing fears of impending tariffs by the US on April 2.Preliminary US S&P Global Services PMI gained significantly in March.The ECB is expected to cut interest rates again in April.EUR/USD finds cushion near 1.0780 during European trading hours on Tuesday. The major currency pair attracts bids as the US Dollar (USD) struggles to gain further despite the narrower-than-feared tariff agenda of United States (US) President Donald Trump and upbeat preliminary S&P Global Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for March. US President Trump signaled to reporters at the White House on Monday that not all tariffs will be implemented on April 2. Trump said that some countries could get exempted from additional import duties. Market participants have taken Trump’s comments as positive for risky assets and the US Dollar, expecting that the impact of a limited trade war would be lower globally than initially feared. Trump also reiterated that he will announce tariffs on automobiles, aluminum and pharmaceuticals soon. On Monday, S&P Global reported that robust services sector activity offset the impact of an unexpected decline in the manufacturing sector and resulted in a sharp increase in the Composite PMI. The Services PMI rose to 54.3, significantly higher than the 51.0 recorded in February. Economists expected a mild increase in the service sector activity to 51.2. The services sector is the backbone of the US economy, given that it accounts for roughly two-thirds of the economy. Meanwhile, accelerating consumer inflation expectations due to Trump’s trade policies have also strengthened the US Dollar. On Monday, Atlanta Fed Bank President Raphael Bostic said in an interview with Bloomberg that he expects “only one interest rate cut this year” as he sees a slowdown in the progress in the disinflation trend towards the 2% target, assuming that businesses will bear the burden of tariffs. Collectively, Federal Reserve (Fed) officials see two interest rate cuts this year, as shown by the dot plot in the Summary of Economic Projections of the March policy meeting. Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD bounces back while Euro remains under pressure EUR/USD ticks higher even though the Euro (EUR) trades cautiously on expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) could reduce interest rates again in April. The ECB has cut its key borrowing rates six times since June and expects to win the battle against inflation this year. Last week, ECB President Christine Lagarde said while testifying before the European Parliament Committee that the inflationary impact of the Trump-led trade war is temporary as the effect would “ease in the medium term” due to “lower economic activity dampening inflationary pressures”. Lately, traders have pared ECB dovish bets on expectations that the tariff war between the US and the Eurozone could lead to an increase in inflationary pressures in the old continent for a longer period. On the economic front, German IFO Business Climate data for March, an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations, has come in higher at 86.7 from the prior reading of 85.3 but missed estimates of 86.8. The Expectations component – which presents outlook for the next six months – increased to 87.7 from the prior release of 85.6. It also missed the expectations of 87.9. IFO Current Assessment data came in at 85.7, beating estimates of 85.5 and the former reading of 85.0. Technical Analysis: EUR/USD finds buying interest below 1.0800 EUR/USD rebounds from 1.0785 at the time of writing on Tuesday. The major currency pair corrected from the five-month high of 1.0955 last week. However, the long-term outlook of the major currency pair is still bullish as it holds above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 1.0666. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) cools down below 60.00, suggesting that the bullish momentum is over, but the upside bias is intact. Looking down, the December 6 high of 1.0630 will act as the major support zone for the pair. Conversely, the psychological level of 1.1000 will be the key barrier for the Euro bulls. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

12:15 EUR/USD to consolidate around current levels for now – Danske Bank
EUR/USD is hovering around the 1.08 mark after yesterday's session, which was characterized by slightly weaker-than-expected March PMIs from the euro area and slightly stronger readings from the US , Danske Bank's FX analyst Jesper Fjärstedt reports.

EUR/USD is hovering around the 1.08 mark after yesterday's session, which was characterized by slightly weaker-than-expected March PMIs from the euro area and slightly stronger readings from the US , Danske Bank's FX analyst Jesper Fjärstedt reports. EUR/USD to trade at 1.06 in 12 months from now "Euro area PMIs came in softer, with the composite PMI rising to 50.4 (cons.: 50.7) from 50.2. The increase was driven by the manufacturing sector, where the PMI climbed more than expected to 48.7 (cons.: 48.2) from 47.6, while the services sector disappointed with a decline to 50.4 (cons: 51.1) from 50.6. In contrast, US PMIs showed the opposite trend." "The manufacturing index fell back into contractionary territory, aligning with weaker signals from regional Fed indices (Empire, Philly Fed). However, the services index rebounded sharply to 54.3 (from 51.0), contributing to a modest rise in US yields and a stronger USD." "Today, the focus shifts to Conference Board consumer confidence data, where US recession concerns have been reflected recently. In the near term, we believe a consolidation around current levels is likely for EUR/USD. Longer term, we raise the profile higher to 1.06 in 12M as the shift in risk asset allocation away from the US appears structural."

12:09 USD/JPY: Rebound underway in the near term – OCBC
USD/JPY continued to trade higher, in line with our caution.

USD/JPY continued to trade higher, in line with our caution. Data and BoJ policy may take a back seat for now as the focus shifts to Trump’s reciprocal tariffs on 2 April. Pair was last at 150.41 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. JPY dividend seasonality trends may weigh on JPY "Bullish momentum on daily chart intact but rise in RSI slowed. We continue to caution for rebound risks in the near term but bias to sell rallies. Death cross appears to be in the making (50 cuts 200 DMA to the downside). Resistance at 151.50 (38.2% fibo retracement of Sep low to Jan high),151.60/70 levels (50, 200 DMAs) and 153.20 (100 DMA). Support at 150, 148.30 and 147 levels (61.8% fibo)." "Earlier, Trump had ordered his administration to consider imposing reciprocal tariffs on numerous trading partners, singling out Japan and South Korea as nations that he believes are taking advantage of the US. We had also flagged that Japan may be at risk of being hit by reciprocal tariffs as Japanese cars are the top 5 most popular in US. Currently, US imposes a 2.5% tariff on imported Japanese cars and this tariff rate may rise, leading to a potential demand hit for Japanese cars." "There have been chatters of production adjustments or supply chain shifts in attempt to avert being hit by reciprocal tariff adjustment, but it remains uncertain if this would be useful. In terms of agricultural products, Japan also has a high tariff rate of 204.3% for rice and 23.3% for meat. The risk is a direct tariff hit on Japanese goods that can potentially put a downward pressure on JPY. Additionally, JPY dividend seasonality trends may weigh on JPY in the near term."

11:47 ECB’s Kazimir: We are open to discuss a rate cut or pause in April
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Peter Kazimir said on Tuesday, “we are open to discuss a rate cut or pause in April.” No further comments are reported.

European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Peter Kazimir said on Tuesday, “we are open to discuss a rate cut or pause in April.” No further comments are reported. Market reaction At the time of writing, EUR/USD is trading listlessly near 1.0800, almost unchanged on the day.

11:30 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Tuesday, according to FXStreet data.

11:16 NZD/USD Price Forecast: Falls toward 0.5700 as medium-term price momentum weakens
NZD/USD continues its losing streak that began on March 18, trading around 0.5710 during European hours on Tuesday.

11:02 Germany IFO – Expectations registered at 87.7, below expectations (87.9) in March
Germany IFO – Expectations registered at 87.7, below expectations (87.9) in March

11:02 German IFO Business Climate Index rises to 86.7 in March vs. 86.8 expected
The headline German IFO Business Climate Index climbed to 86.7 in March from 85.3 in February.

11:01 Germany IFO – Business Climate came in at 86.7, below expectations (86.8) in March
Germany IFO – Business Climate came in at 86.7, below expectations (86.8) in March

11:00 Germany IFO – Current Assessment above forecasts (85.5) in March: Actual (85.7)
Germany IFO – Current Assessment above forecasts (85.5) in March: Actual (85.7)

11:00 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD seems poised to climb further while above $33.00 confluence
Silver (XAG/USD) attracts fresh buyers following the previous day's flat closing and builds on the steady intraday ascent through the first half of the European session on Tuesday.

10:58 Palladium price today: Rare metals advance at the start of the European session
Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade with a positive tone at the beginning of Tuesday, according to FXStreet data.

10:55 DXY: Asian FX are under pressure – OCBC
US Dollar (USD) continued to trade better bid against most Asian FX, as 2 Apr reciprocal tariff draws closer.

US Dollar (USD) continued to trade better bid against most Asian FX, as 2 Apr reciprocal tariff draws closer. It may also be complacent at this point to second guess if tariffs will be narrower and it is perhaps prudent to wait and see for better clarity. As of now, the Trump administration is not planning separate, sectoral-specific tariffs to be unveiled at the same event, but nothing stops Trump from announcing these tariffs on other dates before or after. DXY was last at 104.38 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Rebound risk remains likely in the interim "Overnight, Trump threatened to impose tariffs on countries that buy Venezuelan oil. It was also mentioned that only countries that don’t have tariffs on the US, and with whom the US has a trade surplus, will not be tariffed under the reciprocal plan. So likely, Australia, Singapore, HK may be excluded while China, EU, South Korea, Japan, India and Thailand are amongst some of the countries that may be hit. Tariff imposition can undermine sentiments and lead to spikes in the USD." "The likes of KRW, JPY, CNH, MYR, IDR and THB may be undermined in the near term. On IDR, the currency has seen relative underperformance, largely due to softer fundamentals including fiscal worries, unexpected current account deficit, economic soft patch and growing expectations that BI may have to soon ease policy. At the same time, external conditions turned unfavorable, further weighing on IDR." "The upticks seen in USD/CNH and USD/CNY fixing seen over the last few sessions are also key factors to watch as a stable RMB had helped to anchor sentiments in AxJ FX. Daily momentum is mild bullish while RSI rose. Rebound risk remains likely in the interim. Resistance here at 104.40 and 105 levels (50% fibo, 21, 200 DMAs). Support at 104 (61.8% fibo retracement of Oct low to Jan high), 103.10, 102.50 levels (76.4% fibo)."

10:48 JPY: Yen bulls mull positions – ING
The big difference between this year’s decline in USD/JPY and that seen last July and August is positioning.

The big difference between this year’s decline in USD/JPY and that seen last July and August is positioning. Last year’s Japanese Yen (JPY) rally was all about the short covering of yen positions as the carry trade was unwound, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes. USD/JPY can correct to a best-case rate of 152.50 this week "This year’s decline in USD/JPY has been driven by investors (mainly asset managers) actively taking a long position in the yen. Driving those investment decisions may well have been diversification from the dollar and a view that the yen is one of the most undervalued currencies in the G10 space – a view with which we agree." "However, speculative long yen positioning has recently become quite stretched and the recent bounce in US equities and US yields have managed to shake out weak yen longs. Depending on the US data, USD/JPY could correct through the 151.25/30 area to a best-case rate of 152.50 this week." "We wouldn’t chase USD/JPY too much higher from there, though, given what could be a rough week for risk assets next week when US reciprocal tariffs are announced. And we’re still sticking to our non-consensus view of a Bank of Japan (BoJ) hike in May – which could also trigger some independent yen strength were data or BoJ-speak to prove supportive."

10:46 Australia rolls out new tax cuts, to cost A$17.1 billion over 5 years
Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers presents 2025/26 budget and the Treasury's key economic forecasts before the Parliament on Tuesday.

Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers presents 2025/26 budget and the Treasury's key economic forecasts before the Parliament on Tuesday. Key highlights per Reuters "Australia rolls out new tax cuts, to cost A$17.1 billion over 5 years." "2024/25 budget deficit seen at A$27.6 bln, 2025/26 deficit at A$42.1 bln." "2026/27 budget deficit seen at A$35.7 bln, 2027/28 deficit of at A$37.2 bln." "Australia sees net debt rising to 23.1% of GDP in 2028/29." "CPI inflation seen at 2.5% in 2024/25, 3.0% in 2025/26 and 2.5% through 2027/28." "Unemployment rate at 4.25% in 2024/25 and staying there through 2027/28." "GDP growth seen at 1.5% in 2024/25, 2.25% in 2025/26, 2.5% in 2026/27." Market reaction AUD/USD showed no immediate reaction to the budget announcement and was last seen trading flat on the day at 0.6285.

10:45 Copper: Sentiment over tariffs improves – ING
Hopes Donald Trump’s next round of tariffs, due to be announced on 2 April , could be more measured supported industrial metals prices at the start of the new week, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

Hopes Donald Trump’s next round of tariffs, due to be announced on 2 April , could be more measured supported industrial metals prices at the start of the new week, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note. Copper is likely to remain supported amid the front-running of tariffs "On Friday, Trump signalled 'flexibility' in his plan for reciprocal tariffs. Reports over the weekend suggest tariffs could be narrower in scope and potentially exempt some industries. Copper is trading just below $10,000/t after advancing above this key level late last week." "In February, Trump instructed the US Commerce Department to mull potential copper import tariffs. That triggered a sharp rally in copper prices and has traders shifting metal from global London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses to the US. Copper is likely to remain supported amid the front-running of tariffs." "And tightening of the ex-US physical market as more metal makes its way to the US ahead of any potential levies."

10:42 AUD: February inflation coming in tonight – ING
Australia releases CPI data for February tonight, with consensus looking at a third consecutive 2.5% YoY headline print.

Australia releases CPI data for February tonight, with consensus looking at a third consecutive 2.5% YoY headline print. The trimmed mean re-accelerated in January from 2.7% to 2.8%, causing new troubles for the RBA, which started easing last month, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes. AUD to face downside risks to 0.62 in April "We suspect the full-time-led drop in employment in February (-52k) needs to be matched with some new disinflationary signs to convince markets to fully price back a cut by May (April looks off the cards). Our call for the terminal rate is 3.35%, so 75bp of easing, although the pace and timing of further cuts are highly data-dependent and admittedly quite uncertain." "That said, the RBA is a secondary driver for AUD compared to tariff news and global risk sentiment. AUD/USD is not particularly cheap based on short-term drivers (rates and equities), and we still expect some downside risks to 0.62 in April as tariff risks intensify."

10:40 Secondary tariffs on Venezuelan oil buyers – ING
Oil prices rose yesterday after President Trump announced 25% US tariffs on any country buying Venezuelan oil, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

Oil prices rose yesterday after President Trump announced 25% US tariffs on any country buying Venezuelan oil, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note. Chevron’s sanction waiver to operate in Venezuela expires on 27 May "The news helped ICE Brent break above US$73/bbl, settling at its highest since late February. Oil, along with broader risk assets, also benefited from suggestions the Trump administration may take a more targeted approach with reciprocal tariffs." "In recent years, Venezuela increased oil production and exports as the Biden administration eased sanctions, providing a waiver to Chevron to operate in the country. Venezuela produced 918k b/d of crude oil in February, up from 760k b/d in 2023, while it exports around 750k b/d. As such, this move could mean a fairly sizeable tightening in the global oil balance." "The largest buyers of Venezuelan crude oil are China, the US and India. However, the volumes to the US should stop as Chevron’s sanction waiver to operate in Venezuela expires on 27 May. Also, tariffs will start on 2 April, the same day broader reciprocal levies may be introduced. This should be supportive for heavier crude oil grades, of which Venezuela is a key exporter."

10:37 USD: Consumer story to deteriorate further – ING
Monday’s PMIs surprised on the upside in the US while jumping less than expected in the euro area, helping the euro-heavy DXY index find support into the 104.0-104.50 area.

Monday’s PMIs surprised on the upside in the US while jumping less than expected in the euro area, helping the euro-heavy DXY index find support into the 104.0-104.50 area. However, the surveys highlighted a growing gap between the contracting manufacturing sector and the rebounding services sector in the US. Markets are keenly watching for clearer signals on where to place activity-related USD bets, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes. DXY index finds support in the 104.0-104.50 area "The Conference Board Consumer Confidence surveys published today are the biggest release for the week in FX. A great deal of the market’s pessimism on US macro has stemmed from soft consumer figures, and the 14.5-point drop in the Conference Board sentiment index between November and February contributed to the major rotation from US to European equities that underpinned the EUR/USD rally. Consensus is rather sparse, but broadly centred around another substantial decline, from 98.3 to 94.0. Our economist expectation is 93.0." "Even if the drop is a bit less pronounced than expected, markets may struggle to see much silver lining for the dollar. We still think the second half of the week can show more broad-based dollar gains as the 2 April tariff deadline approaches (car tariff details to be unveiled this week) and core PCE at 0.3% MoM (Friday) can keep a cap on dovish Fed bets. But for today we see mostly downside risks for the greenback." "The US calendar also includes new home sales for February, which are expected to be quite strong, and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing index, which may well fall back into negative territory given the PMI indications."

10:34 Crude oil price today: WTI price bullish at European opening
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Tuesday, early in the European session.

10:29 EUR/USD: Corrective pullback on the day – OCBC
Euro (EUR) fell for a 4 th consecutive session as tariff uncertainty bites.

Euro (EUR) fell for a 4 th consecutive session as tariff uncertainty bites. EUR was last seen trading at 1.0780 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Risks skewed to the downside in the interim "German/European spending plans and hopes of a Ukraine peace deal are positive catalysts for EUR but given the sharp run-up in EUR, and ahead of reciprocal tariff risks on 2 Apr, we continue to caution for risk of near-term pullback. On tariffs, it remains uncertain in terms of timing on whether the 25% tariff on European auto and other products or the 200% tariff on European alcohol will be effective soon." "Confirmation of the tariffs may see EUR dip, but the pullback may not translate into a larger decline. Instead, it may even be seen as a chance to buy dips, considering the emergence of new positive factors: potential Ukraine peace deal, expectations of defense spending (supportive of growth) and chance that ECB easing may slow." "Bullish momentum on daily chart is fading while RSI fell. Risks skewed to the downside in the interim. That said bullish crossovers observed: 21 cut 200 DMA to the upside while 50 cuts 100 DMA to the upside. Bias to buy dips. Support here at 1.0700/20 levels (21, 200 DMAs, 50% fibo retracement of Oct high to Jan low). Resistance at 1.0950/70 levels (76.4% fibo, recent high), 1.1020 levels."

10:25 EUR: Eyes on Ukraine-Russia developments – ING
ING's original working assumption for this week was that the euro could still squeeze some data-linked optimism from the German fiscal bazooka, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

ING's original working assumption for this week was that the euro could still squeeze some data-linked optimism from the German fiscal bazooka, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes. EUR/USD can depreciate below 1.07 "Yesterday’s PMIs were underwhelming considering previous indications from the ZEW. The other side of the coin is that markets may not be expecting anything too big from the IFO surveys today, leaving room for a positive surprise to lift the euro." "What may, however, be more relevant for the euro is any headline coming from Saudi Arabia, where a US delegation met with Russian counterparts yesterday following talks on Monday with Ukrainians. Russia and the US are reportedly due to issue a statement today about the progress of negotiations. Indications that some agreement is building around a full ceasefire would support European sentiment and the euro." "Barring that, fading optimism on a quick truce can make generally overvalued (in the near term) European currencies trade on the soft side. EUR/USD traded back below 1.080 yesterday. We see upside risks today given the US consumer confidence risk event, but our preference remains for a depreciation to <1.07 in April."

10:19 USD/IDR rises above 16,600 toward highs since 1998, BI intervenes in spot markets
The USD/IDR pair continues its upward momentum for the third straight session, trading above 16,600 during European hours on Tuesday.

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It approached the high of 16,800, last seen in June 1998 during the Asian Financial Crisis, according to LSEG data. The weakness of the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) is driven by growing concerns over political uncertainty, government spending, and capital outflows in Indonesia. Fitra Jusdiman, Director of Monetary and Securities Asset Management at Bank Indonesia (BI), told Reuters, "Global uncertainty remains linked to Trump's tariff policies and geopolitical turmoil, including the impact of the trade war on China and other emerging markets in Asia." To curb the Rupiah's decline, Indonesia's central bank intervened in the currency market. A BI official confirmed to Reuters that the central bank had stepped in to stabilize the spot currency, bond markets, and domestic non-deliverable forwards. Additionally, genuine foreign exchange demand for repatriation and other payments contributed to the IDR’s depreciation. Edi Susianto, BI’s Head of Monetary Management, told Reuters, "We have entered the market boldly to maintain the balance of FX supply and demand." Meanwhile, the USD/IDR pair gains further traction as traders remain cautious ahead of US President Donald Trump’s scheduled tariff announcement on April 2. The US dollar strengthened, supported by robust S&P Services PMI data and cautious remarks from Federal Reserve officials. The S&P Global Services PMI jumped to 54.3 in March, a three-month high, up from 51.0 in February and surpassing market expectations of 50.8. The service sector rebounded sharply from its 15-month low, while the Composite PMI climbed to 53.5, its strongest expansion since December 2024. Adding to the uncertainty, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic warned that inflation progress might be slower than expected. He revised his 2025 rate cut projections downward, citing persistent price pressures and trade-related risks. Central banks FAQs What does a central bank do? Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%. What does a central bank do when inflation undershoots or overshoots its projected target? A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing. Who decides on monetary policy and interest rates? A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%. Is there a president or head of a central bank? Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.

10:19 Pound Sterling trades with caution ahead of UK Spring Statement
The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades cautiously against its major peers on Tuesday.

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The British currency struggles as United Kingdom (UK) Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves is prepared to unveil the Spring Statement on Wednesday. It would be interesting to watch how Reeves will promote economic prosperity, given his pledge of no more taxes and the maintenance of fiscal rules. After the Autumn Budget, Chancellor Reeves told at the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) conference in November that public services have to survive on their own means. Reeves clarified that the government will rely on foreign financing only for investment purposes, not to address day-to-day spending. Also, she confirmed no more tax raises after facing backlash from the corporate sector for increasing employers’ contributions to National Insurance (NI) from 13.8% to 15%. This indicates that Reeves will be forced to cut fiscal spending heavily. Such a scenario would diminish consumer inflation expectations, prompting expectations of more interest rate cuts by the Bank of England (BoE) in the near term. On Wednesday, investors will also focus on the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February, which will influence market expectations for the BoE’s monetary policy outlook. The headline inflation is estimated to decelerate to 2.9% year-over-year (YoY), slower than the 3% increase seen in January. In the same period, the core CPI – which excludes volatile food and energy prices – is estimated to have grown by 3.6% from the prior reading of 3.7%. Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling edges lower against US Dollar The Pound Sterling ticks lower against the US Dollar (USD) near 1.2915 in European trading hours on Tuesday. The GBP/USD pair faces slight selling pressure as the US Dollar holds onto Monday’s gains, driven by strong preliminary United States (US) S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for March and optimism that tariffs to be unveiled by President Donald Trump on April 2 would be narrower in scope than initially feared. The S&P Global reported on Monday that the Service PMI, which accounts for activities in the services sector, came in at 54.3, significantly higher than estimates of 51.2 and the 51.0 reading seen in February. Given that the services sector roughly accounts for two-thirds of the US economy, upbeat data indicates a strong business outlook. The report also showed that the increase in prices paid by employers for business inputs was the highest in nearly two years, prompting expectations of higher inflation in the near term. The Manufacturing sector output declined unexpectedly, but sentiment remained robust on expectations that US President Trump’s tariff policies will prompt the appeal of goods produced domestically. On Monday, President Trump reiterated that reciprocal tariffs are on track to be unveiled on April 2 but teased that a lot of countries could get exempted from additional levies. His comments improved the US Dollar’s appeal as the impact of the tariff war with fewer nations would be lower on the US economic outlook than initially feared. Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling drops to near 1.2900 The Pound Sterling trades slightly lower near 1.2900 against the US Dollar on Tuesday. The GBP/USD pair struggles to hold the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, plotted from the late-September high to mid-January low, at 1.2930. Advancing 20-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) near 1.2865 and 1.2728, respectively, suggest that the overall trend is still bullish. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) cools down to near 60.00 after turning overbought above 70.00 last week. Should a fresh bullish momentum come into action if the RSI holds above 60.00. Looking down, the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1.2770 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1.2615 will act as key support zones for the pair. On the upside, the October 15 high of 1.3100 will act as a key resistance zone. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

09:46 Forex Today: US Dollar holds ground ahead of confidence data
Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, March 25: Following a quiet start to the week, the US Dollar (USD) gathered strength in the American session on Monday and the USD Index closed the fourth consecutive day in positive territory.

09:33 AUD/JPY holds losses near 95.00 following hawkish BoJ Meeting Minutes
AUD/JPY trades around 94.70 during early European hours on Tuesday, holding modest intraday losses after gaining over 1% in the previous session.

09:02 Sweden Producer Price Index (YoY) declined to 3.4% in February from previous 3.5%
Sweden Producer Price Index (YoY) declined to 3.4% in February from previous 3.5%

09:00 Sweden Producer Price Index (MoM) fell from previous 1.7% to -0.1% in February
Sweden Producer Price Index (MoM) fell from previous 1.7% to -0.1% in February

08:44 USD/TRY gathers strength to near 38.00 amid political turmoil in Turkey
The USD/TRY pair gathers strength to around 37.95 during the early European session on Tuesday.

07:45 EUR/GBP consolidates above mid-0.8300s, remains close to three-week low set on Monday
The EUR/GBP cross oscillates in a narrow trading band during the Asian session on Tuesday and remains well within striking distance of a nearly three-week low, around the 0.8345 region touched the previous day.

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The British Pound (GBP) continues with its relative outperformance on the back of the Bank of England's (BoE) hawkish stance, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a headwind for the EUR/GBP cross. In fact, the UK central bank warned against assumptions for interest rate cuts and also increased its forecast for a peak in inflation this year. This suggests that the BoE will lower borrowing costs more slowly than other major central banks. Adding to this, mostly above-consensus UK PMIs released on Monday turn out to be another factor underpinning the GBP. The S&P Global's services PMI rose to 53.2, marking a notable uptick from the previous month's final print of 51. Adding to this, the composite PMI came in at 52 compared to February's 50.5 and marked the biggest rise in six months. This helped offset the dismal Manufacturing PMI, which slumped to 44.6 in March from the 46.9 previous. Meanwhile, the flash PMI showed on Monday that Eurozone business activity accelerated at its fastest pace in seven months in March. The data tempers hope for a more aggressive policy easing by the European Central Bank (ECB), which, along with subdued US Dollar (USD) price action, lends some support to the shared currency. This warrants some caution before placing fresh bearish bets around the EUR/GBP cross and positioning for further losses. Economic Indicator IFO – Business Climate This German business sentiment index released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations in Germany. The Institute surveys more than 7,000 enterprises on their assessment of the business situation and their short-term planning. The positive economic growth anticipates bullish movements for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish). Read more. Next release: Tue Mar 25, 2025 09:00 Frequency: MonthlyConsensus: 86.8Previous: 85.2Source: IFO Institute

07:37 USD/CAD climbs above 1.4300, upside potential appears as Trump’s tariff announcement looms
USD/CAD is trading around 1.4320 during Tuesday’s Asian session, recovering after losses in the previous session.

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The risk-sensitive pair is gaining as traders remain cautious ahead of US President Donald Trump’s scheduled tariff announcement on April 2. However, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) found support as Trump hinted that “a lot” of countries could receive exemptions, though details remain uncertain. Investors welcomed signs that the US may adopt a more measured, targeted approach to tariffs, easing concerns about potential disruptions to Canadian businesses. Meanwhile, the US Dollar faced pressure due to rising fears of an economic slowdown, driven by concerns over Trump’s trade policies. However, this was offset by hawkish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell last week. Powell stated, “Labor market conditions are solid, and inflation has moved closer to our 2% longer-run goal, though it remains somewhat elevated.” On the data front, the S&P Global US Composite PMI climbed to 53.5 in March, rebounding from February’s 10-month low of 51.6 and marking the strongest expansion since December 2024. This growth was primarily driven by the services sector, which saw a sharp rebound in business activity. The S&P Global US Services PMI surged to a three-month high of 54.3 in March, up from 51.0 in February and exceeding market expectations of 50.8. Meanwhile, the Manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.8 from 52.7, falling short of the forecasted 51.8. This decline followed February’s strongest manufacturing growth in nearly three years. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

07:21 USD/CHF weakens below 0.8850 amid geopolitical tensions
The USD/CHF pair weakens to around 0.8830 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday, pressured by a decline in the US Dollar (USD).

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Data released by the S&P Global on Monday showed that the US Composite PMI rose to 53.5 (preliminary) in March from 51.6 in February. Meanwhile, the Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.8 in March versus 52.7 prior, missing the estimation of 51.9. The Services PMI improved to 54.3 in March from 51.0 in February, above the market consensus of 51.2. The mixed US PMI reports have failed to boost the Greenback.

President Donald Trump said not all of his threatened levies would be imposed on April 2. Trump signaled that some trading partners would receive possible exemptions or reductions. The uncertainty surrounding the Trump tariff policies could weigh on the Greenback against the Swiss Franc (CHF).

Meanwhile, the rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the CHF. Israel continues to carry out airstrikes in Gaza, ending a nearly two-month ceasefire with Hamas. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to act "with increasing military strength" to free hostages and disarm Hamas. Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.

07:16 FX option expiries for Mar 25 NY cut
FX option expiries for Mar 25 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

FX option expiries for Mar 25 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below. EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.0600 931m 1.0850 1.4b 1.0900 1.5b GBP/USD: GBP amounts 1.2835 578m USD/CHF: USD amounts 0.8815 710m AUD/USD: AUD amounts 0.6265 470m 0.6350 480m 0.6360 567m USD/CAD: USD amounts 1.4550 661m

06:47 GBP/USD holds steady above 1.2900 due to a technical pullback in US Dollar
GBP/USD remains stable around 1.2920 during Tuesday’s Asian session after gains in the previous session.

06:42 EUR/USD Price Forecast: Retakes 1.0800 mark; seems vulnerable while below 23.6% Fibo.
The EUR/USD pair attracts some buyers during the Asian session on Tuesday and for now, seems to have snapped a four-day losing streak to over a two-week low, around the 1.0770 area touched the previous day.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD stages a modest recovery from over a two-week low touched the previous day.The technical setup seems tilted in favor of bears and supports prospects for deeper losses.A sustained move beyond the overnight swing high is needed to negate the negative bias. The EUR/USD pair attracts some buyers during the Asian session on Tuesday and for now, seems to have snapped a four-day losing streak to over a two-week low, around the 1.0770 area touched the previous day. Spot prices reclaim the 1.0800 mark amid subdued US Dollar (USD) price action, though the uptick lacks bullish conviction. From a technical perspective, the overnight breakdown and close below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent move up from the late February low was seen as a key trigger for bearish traders. This, in turn, supports prospects for an extension of the recent pullback from the year-to-date top touched earlier this week and a further downfall toward the 1.0725 confluence. The latter comprises the 38.2% Fibo. level and the very important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which, in turn, should act as a strong base for the EUR/USD pair amid mixed oscillators on the daily chart. A convincing break below, however, will suggest that spot prices have topped out near the 1.0955 region and pave the way for deeper losses. The subsequent downfall could drag the EUR/USD pair below the 1.0700 round figure, towards the next relevant support near the 1.0655 area (50% Fibo.) en route to the sub-1.0600 levels, or the 61.8% Fibo. Some follow-through selling might then shift the bias in favor of bearish traders and expose the 100-day SMA, around the 1.0500 psychological mark, which also nears the 78.6% Fibo. level. On the flip side, the overnight swing high, around the 1.0855 region, now seems to act as an immediate hurdle, above which a bout of a short-covering move could allow the EUR/USD pair to reclaim the 1.0900 round figure. The momentum could extend further towards retesting the multi-month peak, around the 1.0955 region, before spot prices eventually climb to the 1.1000 psychological mark for the first time since early October 2024. EUR/USD daily chart Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

06:35 India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices rose in India on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

.fxs-related-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-related-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{text-decoration:none;color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover a{color:#e4871b}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover{text-decoration:none}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-related-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Gold prices rose in India on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet. The price for Gold stood at 8,308.49 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 8,297.47 it cost on Monday. The price for Gold increased to INR 96,908.57 per tola from INR 96,780.01 per tola a day earlier. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 8,308.49 10 Grams 83,081.97 Tola 96,908.57 Troy Ounce 258,422.60 2025 Gold Forecast Guide [PDF] Download your free copy of the 2025 Gold Forecast Daily digest market movers: Unclear on the impact Johannesburg-based firm Gold Fields said Monday it put forward a non-binding proposal to buy the Perth-based company Gold Road Resources for 3.05 Australian Dollars (AUD) a share in cash on March 7, valuing its equity at 3.3 billion AUD and implying a total enterprise value of 2.4 billion AUD. Gold Road’s board rejected the offer, Bloomberg reports. Chinese metals producer Zijin Mining Group Co. shares rose more than 5% after the company posted a record profit on surging Gold and Copper prices. Heightened global economic and geopolitical risks, coupled with tariffs, are increasing uncertainty, the company said in a statement after net income surged 52% last year. Rising demand for Gold Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), as well as central bank purchases, will push bullion higher this year, Reuters reports. US tariffs due April 2 are poised to be more targeted than the sprawling ones, according to US officials familiar with the matter. Still, traders remain wary with officials in China and Australia warning of widespread shocks to the global economy from US trade policy, Bloomberg reports. FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

06:12 Gold price consolidates above $3,000; downside potential seems limited
Gold price (XAU/USD) struggles to gain any meaningful traction during the Asian session on Tuesday, though it holds above the $3,000 psychological mark amid mixed fundamental cues.

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The US Dollar (USD) preserves its recent recovery gains from a multi-month low and sits near a three-week high touched on Monday. Apart from this, the upbeat market mood, bolstered by hopes for less disruptive US trade tariffs, the Russia-Ukraine peace deal, and the optimism over China's stimulus, acts as a headwind for the safe-haven precious metal. Meanwhile, the growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will resume its rate-cutting cycle soon, amid worries over a tariff-driven US economic slowdown, holds back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets. This, in turn, is seen lending some support to the non-yielding Gold price. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for a sustained break and acceptance below the $3,000 mark before confirming that the XAU/USD has topped out in the near term and positioning for an extension of the recent pullback from the all-time peak. Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price remains on the defensive amid the upbeat market mood The global risk sentiment remains well supported by hopes that US President Donald Trump's so-called reciprocal tariffs, set to take effect on April 2, will be narrower and less strict than initially feared. Russian state media RIA reported that a joint statement from the US and Russia is expected on Tuesday after day-long talks in Saudi Arabia focused on a narrow proposal for a Black Sea maritime ceasefire deal. According to a Financial Times report, China is considering including services in a subsidy program to stimulate consumption, further boosting investors' confidence and undermining the safe-haven Gold price. The US Dollar preserves its recent gains to a nearly three-week high touched on Monday in reaction to the better-than-expected release of US Composite PMI, which rose to 53.5 in March from the 51.6 previous month. The Federal Reserve last week lowered its 2025 growth forecast and hiked its inflation outlook amid uncertainty over Trump's tariffs, though signaled that it is likely to deliver two 25 basis points rate cuts in 2025. Meanwhile, concerns about US economic growth saw traders lift bets that the Fed could resume its policy-easing cycle soon, which caps further USD gains and lends support to the non-yielding yellow metal. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Monday that he anticipates slower progress on inflation in coming months and sees the central bank cut the benchmark rate only a quarter of a percentage point in 2025. Traders now look to Tuesday's US economic docket – featuring the release of the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index, New Home Sales, and the Richmond Manufacturing Index – for some impetus. Apart from this, speeches by influential FOMC members could drive the USD demand and produce short-term opportunities around the XAU/USD pair later during the North American session. The focus, however, will remain glued to the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index on Friday, which could provide fresh cues about the Fed's future rate-cut path. Gold price bears need to wait for a sustained break below $3,000 before placing fresh bets From a technical perspective, the XAU/USD pair has been showing some resilience near the $3,000 mark. The said handle is likely to act as a key pivotal point, which if broken decisively might prompt some technical selling and drag the Gold price to the $2,982-2,978 region. The corrective fall could extend further towards the $2,956-2,954 resistance breakpoint, now turned support. On the flip side, the $3,033 area, or the overnight swing high, now seems to act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the all-time peak, around the $3,057-3,058 zone touched last week. Given that oscillators on the daily chart are holding comfortably in positive territory, some follow-through buying will be seen as a fresh trigger for bulls and set the stage for an extension of a multi-month-old uptrend. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

06:09 Ueda speech: Still need some time to consider what to do with BoJ’s ETF holdings
Speaking before the Japanese parliament on Tuesday, Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said, the central bank “still need some time to consider what to do with BoJ’s ETF holdings.” Additional quotes Must think about valuation and market rout risks when offloading BoJ’s ETF holdings.

Speaking before the Japanese parliament on Tuesday, Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said, the central bank “still need some time to consider what to do with BoJ’s ETF holdings.” Additional quotes Must think about valuation and market rout risks when offloading BoJ’s ETF holdings. BoJ’s massive JGB holdings have stock effect that would slightly lower long-term yields. BoJ’s JGB holdings would continue to have stock effect since reduction pace is extremely slow. Japan's output gap stands around zero, no big difference BoJ’s and cabinet office's estimates. Market reaction

05:56 EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Tests 163.00 barrier after breaking above nine-day EMA
EUR/JPY holds little losses near 162.80 during Tuesday's Asian session after two consecutive days of gains.

05:19 USD/INR recovers on hopes for softer Trump tariff stance
The Indian Rupee (INR) softens on Tuesday after closing stronger for the ninth consecutive session in the previous session.

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Nonetheless, a rise in crude oil prices could exert some selling pressure on the local currency. It’s worth noting that India is the world's third-largest oil consumer and higher crude oil prices tend to have a negative impact on the INR value. Traders await Fedspeak, along with the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence gauge, New Home Sales and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, which will be published later on Tuesday. Indian Rupee loses ground on higher crude oil prices The HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to 57.6 in March from 56.3 in February. The Indian Services PMI eased to 57.7 in March versus 59.0 prior. The Composite PMI declined to 58.6 in March from 58.8 in February. "India's manufacturing sector expanded at a faster pace in March ... The output index rose to its highest level since July 2024,” said Pranjul Bhandari, Chief India Economist at HSBC. Trump said late Monday that he will announce tariffs on automobile imports in the coming days and indicated that some countries will receive breaks from reciprocal tariffs on April 2. Trump signaled trading partners would receive possible exemptions or reductions. Trump also stated that he planned to proceed with sector-specific tariffs on lumber and semiconductors and repeated his threat to impose duties on pharmaceutical drugs “in the very near future”. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic warned that economic uncertainty will continue to weigh on Fed decision-making as the US's self-styled trade war continues to build pressure on the economy. The US S&P Global Composite PMI rose to 53.5 (preliminary) in March from 51.6 in February. Meanwhile, the Manufacturing PMI declined to 49.8 in March versus 52.7 prior, missing the estimation of 51.9. The Services PMI climbed to 54.3 in March from 51.0 in the previous reading, above the market consensus of 51.2. USD/INR resumes downside journey below the 100-day EMA The Indian Rupee trades on a weaker note on the day. The USD/INR pair resumes its downside, with the price crossing below the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average on the daily chart. Nonetheless, the oversold 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) below the 30.00 mark warrants caution for bearish traders, potentially signaling a temporary recovery or further consolidation in the near term.

The first downside target for USD/INR is located at 85.60, the low of January 6. Extended losses could expose 84.84, the low of December 19, 2024. A breach of this level could see a drop to 84.22, the low of November 25, 2024.

On the bright side, the crucial resistance level for the pair emerges in the 85.95-86.00 zone, representing the psychological level and the 100-day EMA. The next hurdle to watch is 86.48, the low of February 21, en route to 87.00, the round figure.
Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.

05:04 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD holds gains near $33.00 as Middle-East tensions rise
Silver price (XAG/USD) pauses its four-day losing streak, trading around $33.10 per troy ounce during Asian market hours on Tuesday.

04:44 Japanese Yen slides to three-week low against USD; lacks follow-through selling
The Japanese Yen (JPY) drifts lower against its American counterpart for the fourth consecutive day, pushing the USD/JPY pair to the 151.00 neighborhood, or a three-week top during the Asian session on Tuesday.

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The USD stands near a multi-week high touched on Monday and also lends support to USD/JPY.The divergent BoJ-Fed expectations warrant caution before positioning for any further JPY losses.The Japanese Yen (JPY) drifts lower against its American counterpart for the fourth consecutive day, pushing the USD/JPY pair to the 151.00 neighborhood, or a three-week top during the Asian session on Tuesday. The global risk sentiment remains well supported by hopes that US President Donald Trump's so-called reciprocal tariffs will be narrower and less strict than initially feared. Adding to this, the optimism over a possible Russia-Ukraine peace deal and reports that China is considering including services in the subsidy program to stimulate consumption further boost investors' confidence, undermining the safe-haven JPY. Meanwhile, minutes of the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) January meeting showed that policymakers discussed under what conditions the central bank should raise interest rates further. The minutes, however, did not provide any clues about the likely timing of the next BoJ move and did little to impress the JPY bulls. Nevertheless, the BoJ's hawkish outlook still marks a big divergence in comparison to the Federal Reserve's (Fed) forecast for two 25 basis points rate cuts by the end of this year. This might hold back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets and support to the lower-yielding JPY, which should cap gains for the USD/JPY pair. Japanese Yen is undermined by receding safe-haven demand; BoJ rate hike bets help limit the downside Reports on Sunday indicated that US President Donald Trump is planning a narrower, more targeted agenda for reciprocal tariffs set to take effect on April 2, fueling hopes for less disruptive tariffs and underpinning the risk sentiment. Talks between the US and Russian delegations concluded on Monday, and the discussion was centered around trying to reach a Black Sea maritime ceasefire deal. According to Russian state media, RIA, a joint statement is expected on Tuesday. Financial Times reports that China is considering including services in a multibillion-dollar subsidy program to stimulate consumption, further boosting investors' confidence and driving flows away from the safe-haven Japanese Yen. The US Dollar climbed to a nearly three-week high on Monday in reaction to the better-than-expected release of the US Composite PMI – which rose to 53.5 in March from 51.6 in the previous month –and further lends support to the USD/JPY pair. Minutes of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) last policy meeting held in January showed most members agreed the likelihood of hitting the 2% inflation target had been rising. Moreover, policymakers discussed the pace of raising interest rates further. Meanwhile, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said in the parliament on Monday that our policy purpose is to achieve stable prices and that the central bank will adjust the degree of monetary easing if the 2% inflation target is likely to be achieved. This comes on top of the growing acceptance that stronger wage growth could contribute to mounting domestic price pressures and keep the door open for more interest rate hikes by the BoJ, which should help limit further losses for the JPY. In contrast, the Federal Reserve signaled last week that it is likely to deliver two 25 basis points rate cuts by the end of 2025. Traders, however, are pricing in the possibility of three quarter-point rate cuts at June, July, and October meetings. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Monday that he anticipates slower progress on inflation in coming months and sees the central bank cutting benchmark interest rate only a quarter of a percentage point by the end of this year. Tuesday's US economic docket features the release of the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index, New Home Sales, and the Richmond Manufacturing Index. This, along with Fed speak, could influence the USD price dynamics. The focus, however, will remain glued to the Fed's preferred inflation gauge – the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index on Friday – due on Friday, which will drive market expectations about the future rate-cut path. USD/JPY could aim to surpass the 151.00 mark and retest the monthly swing high, around the 151.30 region From a technical perspective, the overnight breakout above the 150.00 psychological mark and a subsequent move beyond last week's swing high, around the 150.15 region, was seen as a key trigger for bullish traders. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart have been gaining positive traction and support prospects for a further appreciating move for the USD/JPY pair. Hence, some follow-through strength beyond the 151.00 round figure, towards testing the monthly swing high around the 151.30 area, looks like a distinct possibility. On the flip side, any corrective pullback might now attract fresh buyers near the 150.15 region, which should help limit the downside near the 150.00 mark. A convincing break below the latter, however, could drag the USD/JPY pair to the 149.30-149.25 intermediate support en route to the 149.00 round figure and the 148.70-148.65 horizontal zone. Failure to defend the said support levels will suggest that the recent recovery from a multi-month low has run out of steam and shift the near-term bias back in favor of bearish traders. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

04:02 NZD/USD extends downside below 0.5750 as US tariffs loom
The NZD/USD pair extends the decline to around 0.5725 during the early Asian session on Tuesday.

03:43 Australian Dollar finds support as traders expect RBA to keep rates unchanged in April
The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends its gains for the second successive session on Tuesday.

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However, the AUD/USD pair faced downward pressure amid a strengthening US Dollar (USD). Robust S&P Services PMI data and cautious Fedspeak likely fueled the Greenback's gains. The AUD finds support as investors anticipate the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) keeping interest rates unchanged in April, following its first rate cut in four years in February. Additionally, expectations of Chinese stimulus continue to bolster the Australian economy, given the strong trade ties between the two nations. Still, the risk-sensitive AUD/USD pair could face potential headwinds as traders remain cautious amid uncertainty over US President Donald Trump's tariff announcement scheduled for April 2. While Trump hinted that "a lot" of countries could receive exemptions, the details of his administration's tariff plans remain unclear. Australian Dollar appreciates despite a stable US Dollar The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, remains stable and is trading around near 104.30. The Greenback received support after the release of mixed S&P Global US PMI data on Monday. The S&P Global US Composite PMI climbed to 53.5 in March, up from February's 10-month low of 51.6, signaling the strongest growth since December 2024. The expansion was driven by the service sector, which saw a rebound in business activity. The S&P Global US Services PMI surged to 54.3 in March, a three-month high, from 51.0 in February, exceeding market expectations of 50.8. Service sector output rebounded sharply after hitting a 15-month low in February. Meanwhile, the Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.8 from 52.7, falling short of market expectations of 51.8. This decline followed February’s strongest manufacturing output increase in nearly three years. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic emphasized ongoing uncertainty, stating that inflation progress may be slower than previously projected. Bostic trimmed his 2025 rate cut expectations, citing persistent price pressure and trade-related risks. The US Dollar came under pressure as concerns grow over a potential US economic slowdown, fueled by trade policies under President Trump. However, this downward trend was offset by hawkish remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell last week. He stated, “Labor market conditions are solid, and inflation has moved closer to our 2% longer-run goal, though it remains somewhat elevated.” President Trump suggested there could be room for "talk" on trade issues with China and expressed hope for a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in the near future. Earlier this month, his proposal to strengthen US shipbuilding by imposing steep fees on China-linked vessels entering American ports led to a buildup of US coal inventories and heightened uncertainty in the already struggling agriculture sector. Judo Bank and S&P Global reported on Monday that Australia’s Manufacturing PMI climbed to 52.6 in March from 50.4 in February, while the Services PMI improved to 51.2 from 50.8. The Composite PMI also increased, reaching 51.3 in March compared to 50.6 previously. China’s ruling Communist Party (CCP) central committee and State Council have suggested ambitious plans to "vigorously boost consumption" by raising wages and easing financial burdens. This latest initiative aims to restore consumer confidence and revitalize the country’s struggling economy. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Assistant Governor (Economic) Sarah Hunter reiterated last week the central bank’s cautious stance on rate cuts. The RBA’s February statement signaled a more conservative approach than market expectations, with a strong focus on monitoring US policy decisions and their potential impact on Australia’s inflation outlook. Australian Dollar remains below 0.6300 resistance near nine-day EMA AUD/USD is trading near 0.6290 on Tuesday, with technical indicators signaling a bearish bias as the pair remains within a descending channel. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits just below 50, reinforcing the persistent downward momentum. Key support lies at the lower boundary of the descending channel around 0.6220. A break below this level could deepen the bearish outlook, potentially driving the pair toward its seven-week low of 0.6187, recorded on March 5. On the upside, initial resistance is at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 0.6308, closely followed by the 50-day EMA at 0.6310. A breakout above these levels could strengthen short- and medium-term bullish momentum, with the pair potentially testing the upper boundary of the descending channel at 0.6320. AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.04% 0.00% 0.00% -0.03% -0.15% 0.01% 0.00% EUR 0.04% 0.03% 0.00% -0.00% -0.09% 0.04% 0.04% GBP -0.00% -0.03% -0.04% -0.03% -0.12% 0.01% -0.04% JPY 0.00% 0.00% 0.04% -0.02% -0.10% 0.02% 0.00% CAD 0.03% 0.00% 0.03% 0.02% -0.08% 0.04% -0.00% AUD 0.15% 0.09% 0.12% 0.10% 0.08% 0.13% 0.12% NZD -0.01% -0.04% -0.01% -0.02% -0.04% -0.13% -0.04% CHF -0.01% -0.04% 0.04% -0.01% 0.00% -0.12% 0.04% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

03:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1788 vs. 7.1780 previous
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Tuesday at 7.1788 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1780 and 7.2630 Reuters estimate.

03:13 WTI rises to near $69.00 as US President Donald Trump threatens tariffs on countries buying Venezuelan crude
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $69.00 during the early Asian session on Tuesday.

02:07 BoJ Minutes: Most members agree the likelihood of hitting 2% target had been rising
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) board members shared their views on the monetary policy outlook on Tuesday, per the BoJ Minutes of the January meeting.

02:03 EUR/USD tests further downside as European business sentiment backslides
EUR/USD roiled on Monday, testing below the 1.0800 handle as market sentiment continues to grapple with mixed economic data and still-cooking tariff concerns.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD eased down for a fourth straight day on Monday.Markets are hoping for easing tariff tensions from the Trump administration.EU and US PMI survey results came in mixed as the economic outlook remains uncertain.EUR/USD roiled on Monday, testing below the 1.0800 handle as market sentiment continues to grapple with mixed economic data and still-cooking tariff concerns. Investors found some relief after US President Donald Trump hinted that tariff exemptions to his own previously-unavoidable tariffs slated for April 2, but Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) survey results continues to warn that more problems may be on the horizon.US President Donald Trump has again hit investors with a fresh batch of on-again, off-again tariff threats. Investors have latched onto the suggestion that Donald Trump might be looking at tariff exemptions for his own trade policy “strategy”, bolstering market sentiment enough to keep the Greenback under wraps. Pan-European PMI data soured overall in March, with the Manufacturing PMI rising to 48.7 but still holding in contraction territory. The Services component ticked lower to 50.4, whereas median market forecasts were hoping for a rebound to 51.0 US Manufacturing PMI survey results sank faster than expected in March as tariff threats take a bite out of the physical production outlook. The Manufacturing PMI for March sank to a three-month low of 49.8, slipping back into economic contraction territory as businesses grow increasingly worried about the economic landscape. The Services PMI came in better than expected, rising to 54.3, it’s own three-month high as services operators expect to be able to fully pass on tariff cost increases to consumers. The economic data docket remains firmly mid-tier heading through the midweek market sessions, but traders will be keeping an eye on looming US Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index inflation figures due on Friday. EUR/USD price forecast EUR/USD has shed weight for four straight trading days, declining from it’s latest swing high into 1.0950. Fiber is testing back into the 1.0800 handle, but is still trading well north of the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.0675. EUR/USD is still trading 5.8% above its last major swing low below 1.0200 in January, however the bull run may be set to end as technical oscillators accelerate to the downside. EUR/USD daily chart Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

01:51 Bailey speech: We face a challenge to raise the potential growth rate of the economy
Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey said late Monday that the UK central bank faces a challenge to raise the potential growth rate of the economy.

01:37 GBP/USD cools momentum as Pound traders weigh next options
GBP/USD rankled on Monday, kicking off the new week with a fresh bout of indecision as the pair floats near the 1.2900 handle.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}GBP/USD held steady near 1.2900 on Monday as a new week gets underway.PMI figures for both the UK and the US came in mixed to start the new week.Cable has flubbed a technical grab for the 1.3000 handle, putting a further backslide on the cards.GBP/USD rankled on Monday, kicking off the new week with a fresh bout of indecision as the pair floats near the 1.2900 handle. Economic data from both the UK and the US came in mixed on Monday, as surveyed businesses waffle on their Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) expectations.US President Donald Trump has again hit investors with a fresh batch of on-again, off-again tariff threats. Investors have latched onto the suggestion that Donald Trump might be looking at tariff exemptions for his own trade policy “strategy”, bolstering market sentiment enough to keep the Greenback under wraps. UK PMI data came in mixed early Monday, with the Manufacturing PMI component falling to a fresh 18-month low of 44.6 in March. The Services component rose more than expected, hitting a seven-month high of 53.2, but overall business activity expectations remain tepid at bast amid a wobbling UK economic outlook. US Manufacturing PMI survey results sank faster than expected in March as tariff threats take a bite out of the physical production outlook. The Manufacturing PMI for March sank to a three-month low of 49.8, slipping back into economic contraction territory as businesses grow increasingly worried about the economic landscape. The Services PMI came in better than expected, rising to 54.3, it’s own three-month high as services operators expect to be able to fully pass on tariff cost increases to consumers. A data-light economic calendar awaits Tuesday’s market participants, but Cable traders will be looking ahead to Wednesday’s UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation print from February. Headline UK CPI inflation is expected to tick down slightly to 2.9% from 3.0% YoY. GBP/USD price forecast GBP/USD has pumped the brakes on a technical decline from recent highs, snapping a two-day losing streak. However, the pair remains on the wrong side of the 1.3000 handle as price action chalks in a new technical ceiling at the key handle. Cable is still trading well above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.2700, but bullish momentum looks poised to evaporate further as bidders run out of gas. Technical oscillators have been pinned in overbought territory since January, and it may be time for an extended backslide. GBP/USD daily chart Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

01:32 ECB's Escriva: Downside risks are outweighing upside risks
European Central Bank Governing Council member Jose Luis Escriva said late Monday that risks to Eurozone economic forecasts are more to the downside than the upside, per Bloomberg.

01:08 USD/CAD flat lines above 1.4300 amid hope for softer Trump tariff stance
The USD/CAD pair trades on a flat note near 1.4320 during the late American session on Tuesday.

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Trump said late Monday that he will announce tariffs on automobile imports in the coming days and indicated that some countries will receive breaks from reciprocal tariffs on April 2. Trump signaled trading partners would receive possible exemptions or reductions.

However, Trump also stated that he planned to proceed with sector-specific tariffs on lumber and semiconductors and repeated his threat to impose duties on pharmaceutical drugs in “the very near future.” Investors remain concerned over a potential rise in inflation and recession ahead of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. This, in turn, might exert some selling pressure on the Greenback against the Canadian Dollar (CAD).

Meanwhile, a rise in Crude Oil prices could boost the commodity-linked Loonie and create a headwind for USD/CAD. It’s worth noting that Canada is the largest oil exporter to the United States (US), and higher crude oil prices tend to have a positive impact on the CAD value. Nonetheless, hopes for a positive outcome from Russia-Ukraine peace talks could weigh on the black gold, which undermines the Loonie and helps limit the USD/CAD pair’s losses. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

00:29 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD stalls near $33.00 after 3-day slide
Silver's price was flatline on Monday, hovering around $33.00 an ounce, snapping three consecutive days of losses.

00:15 NZD/USD Price Analysis: Kiwi trades near key SMAs as upside momentum stalls
The NZD/USD pair was seen trading near the 0.5725 area on Monday, showing mild downside pressure ahead of the Asian session.

NZD/USD was seen hovering around the 0.5725 zone with mild losses ahead of the Asian session.The pair remains trapped near the convergence of the 20- and 100-day SMAs, limiting directional momentum.Support rests at the 0.5700 threshold, while the RSI hovers near the middlepoint, pointing to a lack of strong conviction.The NZD/USD pair was seen trading near the 0.5725 area on Monday, showing mild downside pressure ahead of the Asian session. After a short-lived attempt to gather bullish traction, the kiwi remains capped by the convergence of two key daily moving averages, which continue to act as a magnet for price action. Indicators now show signs of weakening momentum, hinting at limited follow-through in either direction for now. On the technical front, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits right around the 50 mark and is mildly declining, reflecting a neutral momentum profile and lack of strong directional bias. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is printing decreasing green bars, suggesting that bullish momentum is gradually fading. These developments reinforce the idea that the pair might remain rangebound unless a breakout occurs. The 20-day and 100-day Simple Moving Averages, clustered around 0.5730, have become pivotal levels. A decisive break below this area could expose the next support near 0.5700, opening the door for further downside in the near term. Conversely, holding above these SMAs could allow buyers to retest the 0.5780 region and potentially eye the 0.5830 zone beyond. NZD/USD daily chart

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23:54 NZD/USD Price Analysis: Kiwi clings to 0.5730 zone as moving averages pressure builds The NZD/USD pair was seen trading around the 0.5730 zone following a mildly positive performance on Tuesday’s session ahead of Asia.

23:33 AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Pair trades mid-range with mixed signals The AUD/JPY pair was seen around the 94.40 zone after the European session on Tuesday, registering a mild decline and sitting roughly at the midpoint of the day’s trading range.

23:18 Australian Dollar gains capped near 0.6300 ahead of CPI and pre-election budget The Australian Dollar (AUD) attempted a rebound on Tuesday, with AUD/USD recovering toward the 0.6300 mark during the American session.

22:57 United States API Weekly Crude Oil Stock climbed from previous 4.593M to 4.6M in March 21 United States API Weekly Crude Oil Stock climbed from previous 4.593M to 4.6M in March 21

22:30 Gold price rises as US yields drop on stagflation fears Gold price advances on Tuesday as the US Dollar (USD) remains on the back foot and amid falling US real yields, which typically correlate inversely to bullion prices.

20:44 US Dollar faces choppy trade as policy outlook and tariffs fuel caution The US Dollar Index (DXY) is experiencing mixed performance on Tuesday, trading around the middle of the 104.00 zone.

20:37 Dow Jones Industrial Average churns as momentum withers The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) stuck in place on Tuesday, adrift near the 42,500 level after a another sharp decline in CB Consumer Confidence survey results broke a near-term bullish recovery in stock prices.

19:06 United States 2-Year Note Auction down to 3.984% from previous 4.169% United States 2-Year Note Auction down to 3.984% from previous 4.169%

17:58 EUR/USD Price Analysis: Bulls maintain control near mid-range despite mixed momentum The EUR/USD pair was seen trading around the 1.0800 area during Tuesday’s session after the European close, holding modest gains on the day.

17:19 GBP/USD climbs as tariff relief boosts market mood, all eyes on UK CPI The Pound Sterling advances against the US Dollar on Tuesday due to an upbeat market mood, as traders are relieved of US reciprocal tariffs, which are expected to be targeted on some of the US trading partners.

16:49 IEA: Energy demand rise at an above-average rate in 2024, but oil falls back – Commerzbank In its Global Energy Review published yesterday, the IEA identified trends for 2024 that are likely to continue this year, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht reports.

16:44 Oil prices benefit from tensions in the Middle East and new US sanctions – Commerzbank Last week, oil prices recorded their strongest weekly gain since the beginning of January.

16:32 USD/JPY tumbles below 150.00 as Yen outperforms across the board The USD/JPY pair falls significantly to near 149.70 during North American trading hours on Tuesday.

16:26 Record high price level causes considerable slowdown in Indian Gold demand – Commerzbank The high Gold price also has its negative aspects, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch reports.

16:23 Gold price rise buoyed by strong investor interest – Commerzbank The Gold price rise to a record high of $3,057 per troy ounce last week was strongly buoyed by strong buying interest from investors, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch reports.

16:04 US CB Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 92.9 in March U.S. consumer sentiment extended its decline in March, as the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell from 98.3 to 92.9—its weakest reading since February 2021.

16:00 United States Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index below expectations (8) in March: Actual (-4) United States Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index below expectations (8) in March: Actual (-4)

16:00 United States New Home Sales (MoM) came in at 0.676M, below expectations (0.68M) in February United States New Home Sales (MoM) came in at 0.676M, below expectations (0.68M) in February

15:36 USD/CAD declines below 1.4300 as US Dollar slumps on Trump tariff woes The USD/CAD pair falls sharply to near 1.4280 in North American trading hours on Tuesday.

15:26 Eurozone: PMIs rise on industrial optimism and frontloading – ABN AMRO The eurozone composite PMI for March moved further into expansionary territory at 50.4 up from 50.2 in February.

15:02 United States Redbook Index (YoY) increased to 5.6% in March 21 from previous 5.2% United States Redbook Index (YoY) increased to 5.6% in March 21 from previous 5.2%

15:01 United States S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY) meets forecasts (4.7%) in January United States S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY) meets forecasts (4.7%) in January

15:00 United States Housing Price Index (MoM) in line with expectations (0.2%) in January United States Housing Price Index (MoM) in line with expectations (0.2%) in January

14:59 GBP tracks broader tone in the USD – Scotiabank The Pound Sterling (GBP) is trading up a modest 0.2% vs. the USD and is a midperformer vs.

14:56 EUR firm on data – Scotiabank Germany’s IFO business sentiment release was in line with expectations on the headline print (86.7 vs.

14:53 Fed’s Kugler: Goods price rise was “unhelpful” Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler said on Tuesday that the central bank’s interest rate policy remains restrictive and well-positioned.

14:52 CAD nudges higher but scope for gains is limited – Scotiabank The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is little changed on the session, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

14:01 Mexico Retail Sales (YoY) up to 2.7% in January from previous -0.2% Mexico Retail Sales (YoY) up to 2.7% in January from previous -0.2%

14:00 Mexico Retail Sales (MoM) up to 0.6% in January from previous 0.1% Mexico Retail Sales (MoM) up to 0.6% in January from previous 0.1%

13:53 US Pres. Trump considering two-step approach to tariff regime – FT US President Donald Trump is planning to adopt a two-step approach as his tariff strategy, the Financial Times reported on Tuesday.

13:46 US Dollar falls slightly amidst new tariffs and US officials’ comments on Europe The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, has failed to break above 104.50 on earlier attempts.

13:10 USD/CHF Price Forecast: Continues to face pressure near 0.8850 The USD/CHF pair struggles to extend its upside above the key resistance of 0.8850 during European trading hours on Tuesday.

12:54 AUD/USD: Aussie government is expected to show spending restraint – BBH AUD/USD is bullish just above 0.6300, BBH's FX analysts report.

12:49 USD/JPY: BOJ to hike rates by less than 50bps by December 2025 – BBH USD/JPY is up near a multi-week high just under 151.00 with the next big resistance offered at the 200-day moving average at 151.75, BBH's FX analysts report.

12:45 Germany 5-y Note Auction up to 2.44% from previous 2.15% Germany 5-y Note Auction up to 2.44% from previous 2.15%

12:35 S&P 500: Risk of continuation in decline is present – Societe Generale S&P 500 has rebounded after forming interim support near 5500pts representing the 61.8% retracement from last August, Societe Generale's FX analysts report.

12:32 USD/CAD to tick down to 1.42 amid stretched short-CAD positioning – Danske Bank In Canadian Dollar (CAD) FX space, the reaction to PM Carney's snap election, scheduled for April 28, has been quite muted so far, Danske Bank's FX analyst Jesper Fjärstedt reports.

12:28 EUR/USD: Inability to overcome 1.0950 may lead to a pullback – Societe Generale EUR/USD experienced a steep up move earlier this month and reclaimed its 200-DMA (now at 1.0725), Societe Generale's FX analysts report.

12:26 Gold edges higher after Trump hints at more tariffs Gold’s price (XAU/USD) stabilises near $3,020 at the time of writing on Tuesday as traders assess fresh tariff headlines from United States (US) President Donald Trump.

12:22 EUR/USD rebounds as USD drops despite Trump’s tariff fears ease EUR/USD finds cushion near 1.0780 during European trading hours on Tuesday.

12:09 USD/JPY: Rebound underway in the near term – OCBC USD/JPY continued to trade higher, in line with our caution.

11:47 ECB’s Kazimir: We are open to discuss a rate cut or pause in April European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Peter Kazimir said on Tuesday, “we are open to discuss a rate cut or pause in April.” No further comments are reported.

11:30 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Tuesday, according to FXStreet data.

11:16 NZD/USD Price Forecast: Falls toward 0.5700 as medium-term price momentum weakens NZD/USD continues its losing streak that began on March 18, trading around 0.5710 during European hours on Tuesday.

11:02 Germany IFO – Expectations registered at 87.7, below expectations (87.9) in March Germany IFO – Expectations registered at 87.7, below expectations (87.9) in March

11:02 German IFO Business Climate Index rises to 86.7 in March vs. 86.8 expected The headline German IFO Business Climate Index climbed to 86.7 in March from 85.3 in February.

11:01 Germany IFO – Business Climate came in at 86.7, below expectations (86.8) in March Germany IFO – Business Climate came in at 86.7, below expectations (86.8) in March

11:00 Germany IFO – Current Assessment above forecasts (85.5) in March: Actual (85.7) Germany IFO – Current Assessment above forecasts (85.5) in March: Actual (85.7)

11:00 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD seems poised to climb further while above $33.00 confluence Silver (XAG/USD) attracts fresh buyers following the previous day's flat closing and builds on the steady intraday ascent through the first half of the European session on Tuesday.

10:58 Palladium price today: Rare metals advance at the start of the European session Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade with a positive tone at the beginning of Tuesday, according to FXStreet data.

10:55 DXY: Asian FX are under pressure – OCBC US Dollar (USD) continued to trade better bid against most Asian FX, as 2 Apr reciprocal tariff draws closer.

10:48 JPY: Yen bulls mull positions – ING The big difference between this year’s decline in USD/JPY and that seen last July and August is positioning.

10:46 Australia rolls out new tax cuts, to cost A$17.1 billion over 5 years Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers presents 2025/26 budget and the Treasury's key economic forecasts before the Parliament on Tuesday.

10:45 Copper: Sentiment over tariffs improves – ING Hopes Donald Trump’s next round of tariffs, due to be announced on 2 April , could be more measured supported industrial metals prices at the start of the new week, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

10:42 AUD: February inflation coming in tonight – ING Australia releases CPI data for February tonight, with consensus looking at a third consecutive 2.5% YoY headline print.

10:40 Secondary tariffs on Venezuelan oil buyers – ING Oil prices rose yesterday after President Trump announced 25% US tariffs on any country buying Venezuelan oil, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

10:37 USD: Consumer story to deteriorate further – ING Monday’s PMIs surprised on the upside in the US while jumping less than expected in the euro area, helping the euro-heavy DXY index find support into the 104.0-104.50 area.

10:34 Crude oil price today: WTI price bullish at European opening West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Tuesday, early in the European session.

10:29 EUR/USD: Corrective pullback on the day – OCBC Euro (EUR) fell for a 4 th consecutive session as tariff uncertainty bites.

10:25 EUR: Eyes on Ukraine-Russia developments – ING ING's original working assumption for this week was that the euro could still squeeze some data-linked optimism from the German fiscal bazooka, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

10:19 USD/IDR rises above 16,600 toward highs since 1998, BI intervenes in spot markets The USD/IDR pair continues its upward momentum for the third straight session, trading above 16,600 during European hours on Tuesday.

10:19 Pound Sterling trades with caution ahead of UK Spring Statement The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades cautiously against its major peers on Tuesday.

09:33 AUD/JPY holds losses near 95.00 following hawkish BoJ Meeting Minutes AUD/JPY trades around 94.70 during early European hours on Tuesday, holding modest intraday losses after gaining over 1% in the previous session.

09:02 Sweden Producer Price Index (YoY) declined to 3.4% in February from previous 3.5% Sweden Producer Price Index (YoY) declined to 3.4% in February from previous 3.5%

09:00 Sweden Producer Price Index (MoM) fell from previous 1.7% to -0.1% in February Sweden Producer Price Index (MoM) fell from previous 1.7% to -0.1% in February

08:44 USD/TRY gathers strength to near 38.00 amid political turmoil in Turkey The USD/TRY pair gathers strength to around 37.95 during the early European session on Tuesday.

07:37 USD/CAD climbs above 1.4300, upside potential appears as Trump’s tariff announcement looms USD/CAD is trading around 1.4320 during Tuesday’s Asian session, recovering after losses in the previous session.

07:21 USD/CHF weakens below 0.8850 amid geopolitical tensions The USD/CHF pair weakens to around 0.8830 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday, pressured by a decline in the US Dollar (USD).

07:16 FX option expiries for Mar 25 NY cut FX option expiries for Mar 25 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

06:47 GBP/USD holds steady above 1.2900 due to a technical pullback in US Dollar GBP/USD remains stable around 1.2920 during Tuesday’s Asian session after gains in the previous session.

06:42 EUR/USD Price Forecast: Retakes 1.0800 mark; seems vulnerable while below 23.6% Fibo. The EUR/USD pair attracts some buyers during the Asian session on Tuesday and for now, seems to have snapped a four-day losing streak to over a two-week low, around the 1.0770 area touched the previous day.

06:35 India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data Gold prices rose in India on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

06:12 Gold price consolidates above $3,000; downside potential seems limited Gold price (XAU/USD) struggles to gain any meaningful traction during the Asian session on Tuesday, though it holds above the $3,000 psychological mark amid mixed fundamental cues.

05:56 EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Tests 163.00 barrier after breaking above nine-day EMA EUR/JPY holds little losses near 162.80 during Tuesday's Asian session after two consecutive days of gains.

05:19 USD/INR recovers on hopes for softer Trump tariff stance The Indian Rupee (INR) softens on Tuesday after closing stronger for the ninth consecutive session in the previous session.

05:04 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD holds gains near $33.00 as Middle-East tensions rise Silver price (XAG/USD) pauses its four-day losing streak, trading around $33.10 per troy ounce during Asian market hours on Tuesday.

04:44 Japanese Yen slides to three-week low against USD; lacks follow-through selling The Japanese Yen (JPY) drifts lower against its American counterpart for the fourth consecutive day, pushing the USD/JPY pair to the 151.00 neighborhood, or a three-week top during the Asian session on Tuesday.

04:02 NZD/USD extends downside below 0.5750 as US tariffs loom The NZD/USD pair extends the decline to around 0.5725 during the early Asian session on Tuesday.

03:43 Australian Dollar finds support as traders expect RBA to keep rates unchanged in April The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends its gains for the second successive session on Tuesday.