ไทม์ไลน์ข่าวสาร forex

23:53 NZD/JPY Price Analysis: Pair stabilizes but remains below key resistance
The NZD/JPY pair edged higher on Monday, gaining 0.15% to trade around 85.75, but its broader bearish trend remains intact.

NZD/JPY rises 0.18% on Monday, trading near 85.75 after recent losses.Technical indicators point to a fragile recovery, with momentum still favoring the downside.The pair remains well below the 20-day SMA at 87.50, limiting upside potential.The NZD/JPY pair edged higher on Monday, gaining 0.15% to trade around 85.75, but its broader bearish trend remains intact. Despite the mild rebound, the pair continues to struggle below key resistance levels, with sellers keeping control in the bigger picture. Technical readings suggest a tentative recovery but with downside risks still present. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen to 36, indicating a slight improvement in buying interest, though it remains in negative territory. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is printing rising red bars, reinforcing that bearish momentum is not yet fully exhausted. For the pair to establish a more constructive outlook, a move above the 20-day SMA at 87.50 is required. Until that happens, sellers may look to challenge immediate support at 85.30, with a potential move toward 84.80 if bearish pressure intensifies. NZD/JPY daily chart

23:37 NZD/USD Price Analysis: Pair struggles at 20-day SMA as selling pressure builds
The NZD/USD pair saw a mild decline on Monday, slipping to 0.5640 as selling pressure persisted.

NZD/USD dips 0.30% on Monday, trading near 0.5640 amid renewed downside pressure.The pair is testing support at the 20-day SMA, a key threshold for short-term direction.RSI declines in negative territory, while MACD histogram shows weakening bullish momentum.The NZD/USD pair saw a mild decline on Monday, slipping to 0.5640 as selling pressure persisted. Despite previous attempts to hold above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), the pair remains vulnerable, with a decisive breakdown of this level likely to accelerate downside risks. Technical indicators highlight fading bullish momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has declined sharply to 47, dipping back into negative territory, which suggests a weakening recovery attempt. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram prints decreasing green bars, reinforcing a slowdown in buying interest. With the 20-day SMA around 0.5650 acting as a pivotal level, a confirmed break below this mark could push NZD/USD toward the next support at 0.5610. On the flip side, a bounce above 0.5675 would help stabilize sentiment and keep buyers engaged in the short term. NZD/USD daily chart

22:45 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rises and reclaims $32.00 on haven demand
Silver prices advanced on safe-haven demand on Monday, rising 0.90% and reclaiming $32.00 per troy ounce at the time of writing.

22:34 Australian Dollar rebounds as tariff threats ease
The Australian Dollar (AUD) bounces back strongly to near 0.6290 after a weak opening around 0.6235 on Monday.

22:27 Canadian Dollar loses momentum on Monday
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) stuck to familiar technicals levels on Monday, grinding sideways within a familiar range against the Greenback.

21:50 Forex Today: Attention shifts to Chair Powell’s testimony
The US Dollar maintained its bullish bias at the start of the new trading week, as investors remained concerned about the likelihood of a global trade war ahead of Chief Powell’s key testimony.

The US Dollar maintained its bullish bias at the start of the new trading week, as investors remained concerned about the likelihood of a global trade war ahead of Chief Powell’s key testimony.Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, February 11: The US Dollar Index (DXY) extended its recovery north of the 108.00 hurdle amid tariff concerns and despite the downward bias in US yields. Chair Powell’s semi-annual testimony grabs all the attention seconded by the NFIB Business Optimism Index and the speeches by the Fed’s Hammack, Bowman and Williams. EUR/USD extended its leg lower and revisited the sub-1.0300 region on the back of further threats of US tariffs and the stronger Greenback. The ECB’s Schnabel is due to speak.GBP/USD traded with a bearish bias and retested the area of multi-day lows near 1.2360. The BRC Retail Sales Monitor will be released prior to speeches by the BoE’s Mann and Bailey.USD/JPY regained some extra traction on Monday, reclaiming the area above the 152.00 barrier following Friday’s two-month lows. AUD/USD reversed two consecutive daily pullbacks and continued to retarget the key resistance area around 0.6300. The Westpac Consumer Confidence will be published seconded by the Business Confidence gauge by NAB. Prices of WTI added to Friday’s retracement and surpassed the $72.00 mark per barrel despite the strong Dollar and threats of further tariffs. Prices of Gold reached an all-time peak past the $2,900 mark per ounce troy as the implementation of further tariffs could spark a global trade war. Silver prices followed suit and reclaimed the area beyond the $32.00 mark per ounce.

21:40 Gold prices soar to record high past $2,900 amid new US tariffs on metals
Gold price rallied sharply and set a record high above $2,900 on Monday after the President of the United States (US), Donald Trump, enacted tariffs of 25% on base metals.

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Traders seeking safety pushed the non-yielding metal higher amid fears that Trump trade policies could derail the global economy and drive inflation higher. The XAU/USD pair trades at $2,905 after hitting an all-time high of $2,911. On Sunday, Trump said that steel and aluminum imports into the US are set to be hit by 25% duties, including proceeds from Canada, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Mexico. This pushed Gold prices higher, with bulls finally clearing the $2,900 barrier and setting their sights on $3,000 a troy ounce. Despite this, the market mood remains positive as Wall Street remains in positive territory. The Greenback also climbs alongside Gold, while US Treasury bond yields remain steady, which is usually a headwind for the prices of precious metals. Bullion has also benefited from central bank demand. The World Gold Council (WGC) revealed that banks bought more than 1,000 tons for the third year in a row in 2024. After Trump’s victory, purchases by central banks grew over 54% YoY to 333 tons, the WGC calculated. Despite this, Federal Reserve (Fed) officials are turning slightly cautious, which has kept Gold prices from appreciating sharply. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's testimony in the US Congress will be scrutinized by traders. Any hawkish hints could weigh on the yellow metal. The US economic docket will feature Fed speakers, inflation figures, employment data and Retail Sales. Daily digest market movers: Gold price poised to hit $3,000 The US 10-year Treasury bond yield stays firm at 4.489%. US real yields, which correlate inversely to Bullion prices, drop one basis point to 2.055%, a tailwind for XAU/USD. The New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations indicated that US consumers anticipate inflation to stay at 3% in the near term. Additionally, long-term expectations for five years from now have risen, with consumers now expecting prices to increase to 3% in December, up from a previous expectation of 2.7%. Last week, US employment data was mixed, though the dip in the Unemployment Rate hints at the strength of the labor market. This might prevent the Fed from cutting rates soon. Money market fed funds rate futures are pricing in 39 basis points of easing by the Federal Reserve in 2025. XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold prices set to challenge $2,900 Gold’s uptrend is set to extend unless a daily close below $2,900 happens, which could pave the way for a pullback. Momentum remains bullish as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is overbought, though as long as it remains below the most extreme reading of 80, bulls could still push prices higher. The next resistance would be the psychological figure of $2,950, followed by $3,000. Conversely, if XAU/USD tumbles below $2,900, the first support would be $2,850, ahead of the October 31 swing high of $2,790. Further weakness is seen at the January 27 swing low of $2,730.Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

20:23 US Dollar weakens amid mixed economic data and fresh tariff concerns
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against a basket of currencies, is trading softer near 108.30 as investors react to mixed economic data and fresh tariff concerns.

19:47 Mexican Peso falls as Trump announces new tariffs
The Mexican Peso depreciated against the US Dollar on Monday after US President Donald Trump decided to apply 25% tariffs on aluminum and steel imports into the United States (US), including Mexico and Canada.

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At the time of writing, the USD/MXN trades at 20.67, a gain of 0.66%. On Sunday, Trump stated that he would apply tariffs on base metals. He added that reciprocal tariffs could be enacted as soon as Tuesday or Wednesday and that the tariffs would address the deficit. The USD/MXN jumped on those remarks, extending its gains during the North American session. Meanwhile, the market mood remained upbeat, as depicted by US equities trading with gains. Mexican data revealed that auto production dipped and exports plummeted for the third consecutive month in January, according to the Instituto Nacional de Estadistica Geografia e Informatica (INEGI). Earlier, Banxico Governor Victoria Rodriguez Ceja was dovish, revealing that the Central Bank could cut rates of the same magnitude as in February, adding that the job of bringing inflation to the 3% goal has not concluded. Mexican Industrial Production for December is expected to remain unchanged at 0.1% MoM. US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell will cross the wires in the US for his semi-annual testimony at the US Congress. US inflation data on the consumer and producer side and retail sales will also update the status of the US economy. Daily digest market movers: Mexican data failed to cap Peso’s fall spurred by Trump’s rhetoric Mexico’s Auto Exports plunged from -5.8% YoY to -13.7% in January. Production dipped from 4.2% to 1.7% YoY. Banxico’s Rodriguez added that Mexico’s role in US production chains allowed American consumers access to products at competitive prices. She said the central bank remains attentive to what might happen in March after the 30-day grace period provided by Trump. She added that despite being volatile, the Mexican Peso market has operated in an orderly way. The New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations revealed that US consumers expect inflation to remain at 3%. For five years, prices are expected to edge up from 2.7% to 3% in December. Trade disputes between the US and Mexico remain in the boiler room. Although the countries found common ground previously, USD/MXN traders should know that there is a 30-day pause and that tensions could arise toward the end of February. Money market fed funds rate futures are pricing in 39 basis points (bps) of easing by the Fed in 2025. USD/MXN technical outlook: Mexican Peso poised for further losses The USD/MXN uptrend remains in place, but the exotic pair could remain sideways in the short term, trading within the 20.30 – 20.70 area. Momentum remains bullish, as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), but buyers need to push prices above 20.70, so they could target higher prices. The next resistance would be the January 17 daily peak at 20.90 before testing the 21.00 figure and the year-to-date (YTD) high at 21.29. Conversely, a drop below the 50-day Simple Moving average (SMA) at 20.57 could clear the path toward the 100-day SMA at 20.22. On further weakness, look for a test of 20.00.Mexican Peso FAQs What key factors drive the Mexican Peso? The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity. How do decisions of the Banxico impact the Mexican Peso? The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. How does economic data influence the value of the Mexican Peso? Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Mexican Peso? As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

19:28 Dow Jones Industrial Average churns as investors await tariff news
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) found a slim foothold on Monday despite some volatility in the pre-market.

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The United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed) is back in news circulation this week, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell set to testify before the US Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday. US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation metrics are slated for Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. US President Donald Trump is expected to sign another batch of sweeping executive orders on Monday afternoon. Some of those orders are expected to focus on a fresh batch of tariff threats, this time focusing on a flat import tax on all foreign-sourced steel and aluminum into the US. While a threat to US market stability, investors are largely brushing off the trade war rhetoric after President Trump functionally waffled on nearly all of his trade war threats just last week, though a tit-for-tat spat of tariffs on Chinese goods are still in place. Fed Chair Powell’s testimony this Tuesday will be the Fed head’s first appearance before the Senate since Donald Trump took office, and questions are expected to largely focus on Trump’s tariff policies and how they impact the Fed’s decision framework. Multiple iterations of whether Fed Chair Powell will acquiesce to requests from the Trump administration, ranging from arbitrary rate adjustments at the behest of the President to whether Powell would vacate his position if asked by Donald Trump, are expected. Key US inflation data is due this week, with US CPI inflation on Wednesday and PPI producer-level inflation slated for Thursday. The New York Fed noted on Monday that consumer inflation expectations have become anchored around the 3% level, frustratingly higher than the central bank’s 2% target. The NY Fed also highlighted an overall decline in consumer expectations of increased spending going forward, though debt-laden consumers did acknowledge an overall easing in credit access. Dow Jones news The Dow Jones was relatively even-keeled on Monday, with about half of the equity board in the green. American Express (AXP) fell around 3% to $307 per share after the credit company softened its earnings growth outlook for the first quarter. McDonald’s (MCD) rose nearly 4% to $306 per share on Monday despite a miss in quarterly earnings, with investors noting that the overall pace of new locations has been on the rise and is expected to contribute to aggregate earnings in 2025. Dow Jones price forecast The Dow Jones remains pinned near 44,350 after last week’s late bearish push. Price action remains crimped below the 45,000 handle, and momentum is getting squeezed into a middling congestion pattern. A near-term technical floor is getting priced in at the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 43,750. Both bulls and bears appear to have run out of gas for the time being, but the Dow Jones is still trading close to record highs just beyond 45,000. Dow Jones daily chartDow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.

18:37 ECB's Lagarde: Conditions for a recovery remain in place
European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde noted during Monday's US market session that risks to inflation exist on both sides of the line, and reminded markets that European inflation metrics should return to the ECB's target range sometime this year.

European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde noted during Monday's US market session that risks to inflation exist on both sides of the line, and reminded markets that European inflation metrics should return to the ECB's target range sometime this year. Key highlights The conditions for a recovery remain in place. Inflation is set to return to our 2% medium-term target in the course of this year. Risks on both the upside and the downside. The inflation outlook is more uncertain due to trade friction. Wage growth is moderating as expected. The frequency of shocks is likely to remain high in the future. Europe has immense challenges, but solutions are within reach.

17:57 Macro funds liquidate some Gold length – TDS
Despite new all-time highs, macro funds actually liquidated some Gold length last week, TDS’ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.

Despite new all-time highs, macro funds actually liquidated some Gold length last week, TDS’ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.Macro fund buying activity is a critical to the upswing in prices“Outflows from Western macro funds likely coincided with the sharp rise in the dollar at the turn-of-the-week. Interestingly, although the broad dollar sharply reversed by Tuesday, macro funds had failed to reacquire their lost length by then, whereas concurrent CTA buying activity over the past week more than offset liquidations from this cohort.”“Importantly, this left macro funds with additional ammo to chase the rally in Gold prices. Considering that CTAs effectively hold their 'max long' position size and that risk parity funds' deleveraging risks are limited by the diversification benefit offered to stocks by bonds, macro fund buying activity is a critical component to the continued upswing in prices.”

17:44 EUR/GBP Price Analysis: Pair struggles below 100-day SMA despite mild gains
The EUR/GBP pair saw a mild uptick on Monday, rising to 0.8330, but remains under pressure as it struggles to reclaim the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).

EUR/GBP edges up to 0.8330 on Monday but remains below key resistance.Last week's failure to hold above the 100-day SMA continues to weigh on sentiment.The EUR/GBP pair saw a mild uptick on Monday, rising to 0.8330, but remains under pressure as it struggles to reclaim the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). The inability to hold above this level last week has further dampened sentiment, keeping the broader outlook tilted to the downside. Technical readings suggest that momentum remains weak despite the recent rebound. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed to 44, signaling some buying interest but still residing in negative territory. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains flat with green bars, indicating a lack of strong directional bias. Unless EUR/GBP manages to reclaim the 100-day SMA, currently acting as resistance, further downside risks persist. Immediate support lies at 0.8300, with a break lower exposing 0.8275. On the upside, a decisive move above 0.8350 could provide the bulls with a chance to regain control and target 0.8380. EUR/GBP daily chart

17:32 GBP/USD tumbles below 1.2400, extends its losses
The British Pound retreats during the North American session as the Greenback post solid gains after US President Donald Trump said he would impose tariffs on base metals.

16:32 USD/CAD gives up majority of intraday gains, outlook remains firm on Trump’s tariff threats
The USD/CAD pair surrenders a majority of intraday gains and falls back to near 1.4340 from the intraday high of 1.4380, but is still 0.35% higher in Monday’s North American session.

15:53 USD/JPY gains ground near two-month low near 151.00 as Yen weakens across the board
The USD/JPY pair attracts strong bids near the two-month low of 151.00 and bounces back to near 152.00 at the start of the week.

15:12 GBP flying low on the tariff radar – Scotiabank
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is a moderate outperformer on the session after dipping modestly in line with its peers in light trade overnight, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is a moderate outperformer on the session after dipping modestly in line with its peers in light trade overnight, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. GBP is little changed on the day "Sterling is being afforded a little protection from its relatively low trade exposure to the US amid the focus on tariffs while the market’s swift revision of BoE rate cut expectations following last week’s cut and apparent dovish tilt to the voting split is also providing some support. Market pricing for a follow-up cut in March has weakened significantly following BoE messaging that policy settings needed to remain restrictive." "Spot’s recovery from last week’s low settled around the 1.24 point at the end of last week and this area may remain an anchor for the GBP in the short run as markets try and determine a stronger sense of direction. Support is 1.2360. Resistance is 1.2490/00."

15:09 EUR is relieved that autos escaped tariff threat for now – Scotiabank
The Euro (EUR) traded defensively Friday as President Trump announced that reciprocal tariffs were coming soon, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

The Euro (EUR) traded defensively Friday as President Trump announced that reciprocal tariffs were coming soon, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. EUR is trading softer on the day "The EUR has lost a little more ground over the weekend but—after the president highlighted autos as a target last week—the EUR can perhaps breathe a small sigh of relief that this round of tariff threats may only affect relatively limited German exports of steel to the US. Note that the EU offered tariff concessions on autos last Friday." "Spot losses steadied in the upper 1.02 area overnight, representing a roughly 50% retracement of the sharp jump higher last week from 1.0140. The EUR may consolidate in the short run above minor support at 1.0280 but below stiffer resistance in the 1.0350/75 zone (40-day MA at 1.0370)."

15:07 CAD trades off early session low to hold in mid-1.43 area – Scotiabank
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) has softened in response to news of reciprocal tariffs on imported steel and aluminum to the US.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) has softened in response to news of reciprocal tariffs on imported steel and aluminum to the US. Canada is one of the US’ top suppliers, particularly for quality grades, with sales representing about 5% of total exports to the US, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. CAD underperforms on the day "There are meaningful consequences for both countries. The CAD slipped back to the upper 1.43s in early Asian trade but has since recovered about half of that loss to steady in the low/mid-1.43s as markets await developments. Friday’s Canadian employment report reflected another decent gain in jobs in January and a very solid (0.9%) rise in hours worked across the economy which suggests firm growth momentum in early 2025 despite the hyper-focus on tariffs." "While tariff concerns remain paramount for policymakers right now, evidence of very firm growth momentum late last year and into Q1 suggest the Bank can afford to await developments before judging whether more accommodation is needed. Odds of a March cut have been pared back to 60/65% or so—this time last week, market pricing was veering towards the chance of an off-cycle cut. USDCAD continues to trade close to, but a little below, estimated fair value (1.4387 today)." "Chart signals wound up net bearish for the USD over last week. Spot developed a bearish 'engulfing' line on the weekly candle chart and a key reversal week in 'regular' chart analysis. Noted support at 1.4250/75 remains relevant for the USD as the recent lows for the USD coincide with the 38.2% retracement of the USD’s Sep/Jan rally (1.4260). A push below the upper 1.42 area targets a further USD drop to the 1.40/1.41 area. Resistance is 1.4375/80, where the USD topped out overnight, and 1.4450/75."

14:56 USD/JPY: Tariff hit may complicate JPY direction of travel – OCBC
USD/JPY rose this morning, tracking the rise in USD on tariff concerns. USD/JPY was last seen at 152.04 levels, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

USD/JPY rose this morning, tracking the rise in USD on tariff concerns. USD/JPY was last seen at 152.04 levels, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.Rebound risks likely in the interim“Trump announced plan to impose 25% tariff on all steel and aluminium imports and mentioned introducing reciprocal tariffs on all nations. This may imply that Japan maybe implicated. When it comes to automobile, Japanese cars are amongst the top 5 most popular in US and Korean cars make it to the top 10 list. On agricultural products, Japan has a high tariff rate of 204.3% for rice and 23.3% for meat.”“The risk is a direct tariff hit on Japanese goods and JPY may come under pressure in this scenario. Bearish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI is turning higher from near oversold conditions. Rebound risks likely in the interim. Resistance at 152.70/80 levels (100, 200 DMAs), 154.30 levels. Support at 151.50 (38.2% fibo retracement of Sep low to Jan high), 150 levels.”

14:44 USD mixed on latest tariff salvo – Scotiabank
The US Dollar (USD) starts the week a little firmer overall from Friday but well of its best overnight levels. Comments from President Trump over the weekend confirmed that reciprocal tariffs would be announced on steel and aluminum imports in the next few days.

The US Dollar (USD) starts the week a little firmer overall from Friday but well of its best overnight levels. Comments from President Trump over the weekend confirmed that reciprocal tariffs would be announced on steel and aluminum imports in the next few days. The president indicated on Friday reciprocal tariffs in some form were coming, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.USD mixed on reciprocal steel and aluminum tariff news“The CAD and MXN are a little softer in response—as both Canada and Mexico are major suppliers to the US, along with Brazil. The JPY is also underperforming on the session. The USD is trading mixed overall after failing to hold early session gains. Global stocks are higher and fixed income is steady to marginally softer. Markets have taken the latest tariff salvo pretty much in their stride after the volatility triggered by last weekend’s tariff news. Details remain limited and Australia has already announced that it will ask for an exemption.”“Investors are perhaps cautious about what the ultimate ‘bite’ of these tariffs will be. The USD is certainly struggling to make meaningful headway and that may fuel speculation that the tariff risk premium is largely—though perhaps not yet fully—priced into FX at this point. The USD remains quite richly-priced from a broader point of view. While most attention was on the US NFP data last week, the sharp jump in U. Michigan 1Y inflation expectations from 3.3% to 4.3% caught the eye.”“Some of that likely represents the partisan split that has emerged in survey data recently but Fed officials have singled out inflation expectations as something they would be sensitive to. The NY Fed’s inflation expectations gauge is released at 11ET. Inflation (CPI, PPI, Import Prices) data dominate the rest of the week’s economic calendar. Fed Chair Powell testifies at the Senate Banking Committee at 10ET Tuesday (and House Financial Services Committee Wednesday).”

14:09 US Dollar steadies while Gold rallies on tariff talk
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is broadly flat to a touch softer and trades around 108.00 at the time of writing on Monday after again a headline-filled weekend.

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The US Dollar Index (DXY) is going nowhere and trades around 108.00. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is broadly flat to a touch softer and trades around 108.00 at the time of writing on Monday after again a headline-filled weekend. United States (US) President Donald Trump announced 25% steel and aluminum tariffs for all countries importing into the US. Also, plans for reciprocal tariffs are on the table, which would increase US import duties to match those imposed by the country’s other trading partners. Besides the tariff headlines, otherwise, it will be a very calm start of the week on the economic calendar. Traders will want to focus on Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual testimony at Capitol Hill on Tuesday and Wednesday. Traders will look for fresh clues about the path forward for US monetary policy, while Powell is likely to highlight the resilient economy as a key reason central bankers are in no rush to cut borrowing costs further. Daily digest market movers: No clear projectionsBesides the headlines from US President Donald Trump on reciprocal tariffs and steel and aluminum import tariffs, no real timelines or dates were given, Bloomberg reports. The US Treasury is auctioning a 3-month and a 6-month bill at 16:30 GMT. Equities are not impressed by President Trump’s announcement of more tariffs. All major indices are trading in the green on Monday. The CME FedWatch tool projects a 93.5% chance that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at its next meeting on March 19. The US 10-year yield is trading around 4.49%, recovering further from its fresh yearly low of 4.40% printed last week. US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: No interestThe US Dollar Index (DXY) is not breaking any pots this Monday and is not included in the safe-haven flight away from tariffs. Only Gold looks to be the big winner in this case. Meanwhile, US yields are a touch higher, though not enough to really fuel a stronger US Dollar, while traders are assessing what to do next with all these additional tariff announcements. On the upside, the first barrier at 109.30 (July 14, 2022, high and rising trendline) was briefly surpassed but did not hold last week. Once that level is reclaimed, the next level to hit before advancing further remains at 110.79 (September 7, 2022, high). On the downside, the October 3, 2023, high at 107.35 is still acting as strong support after several tests last week. In case more downside occurs, look for 106.52 (April 16, 2024, high) or even 105.98 (resistance in June 2024 and 100-day Simple Moving Average) as better support levels. US Dollar Index: Daily Chart US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

13:30 DXY: Boosted by tariff threats – OCBC
US Dollar (USD) drifted higher on tariff headlines. Trump just announced plans to impose 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium imports (no mention of effective date) and last Fri, he spoke about introducing reciprocal tariffs this week.

US Dollar (USD) drifted higher on tariff headlines. Trump just announced plans to impose 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium imports (no mention of effective date) and last Fri, he spoke about introducing reciprocal tariffs this week. DXY was last seen at 108.12 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Bearish momentum on daily chart intact "Not forgetting that China tariffs on US goods come into effect today, we cannot rule out further deterioration in US-China trade tensions. US data was mixed last Fri – labour market report was on net positive though there are signs of it softening slowly while University of Michigan sentiment fell but inflation expectations rose." "Bearish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI continued to rise. Rebound risk not ruled out. Resistance at 108.40 (21 DMA), 110.00/20 levels (previous high). Support at 107.80 (50 DMA, 23.6% fibo retracement of Oct low to Jan high), 107 levels." "In terms of US data/event this week, CPI (Wed), Powell’s semi-annual testimony to lawmakers (Tue, Wed), PPI (Thu), retail sales and IP (Fri) will be closely watched. Markets are pricing about cumulative 36bps of cut for this year with the next cut only fully priced in around Sep-2025 meeting. Softer US data (i.e. CPI) can lead to dovish repricing, and this can weigh on USD. But the recent headline on reciprocal tariffs suggests that risk-off trades may take precedence."

13:27 Trump plans 25% tariffs on all imports of Steel and Aluminium – ING
LME Auminium was steady this morning after Trump announced plans to impose 25% tariffs on all imports of Steel and Aluminium into the US.

LME Auminium was steady this morning after Trump announced plans to impose 25% tariffs on all imports of Steel and Aluminium into the US. The US imports significant volumes of Aluminium and Steel from Canada, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note. US president imposes tariffs on imported Aluminium and Steel "In 2023, net US Aluminium imports were 44% of its total consumption, with Canada the biggest supplier, accounting for 56% of imports. Meanwhile, around 30% of Steel imports into the US arrived from Canada. Only last week, Trump delayed plans to hit Canada and Mexico with general import duties of 25%." "With Trump back in the White House, uncertainty and unpredictability are running high. Prolonged trade conflict would slow global growth and hurt demand for industrial metals. In 2018, the US president imposed a 10% duty on imported Aluminium and a 25% tariff on imported Steel to promote domestic metal production." "The duties on Canada and Mexico were lifted a year later after a new free trade agreement between the two countries and the US."

13:24 USD/CNH: Unlikely to break above 7.3300 – UOB Group
US Dollar (USD) could edge higher but is unlikely to break above 7.3300.

US Dollar (USD) could edge higher but is unlikely to break above 7.3300. In the longer run, outlook remains mixed, but USD is likely to trade in a narrower range of 7.2500/7.3300, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. USD is likely to trade in a narrower range of 7.2500/7.3300 24-HOUR VIEW: "We indicated last Friday that 'momentum indicators remain neutral, and we continue to expect range trading, probably in a range of 7.2700/7.3000.' However, USD traded in a higher range between 7.2830 and 7.3111. The price action has resulted in a slight increase in upward momentum. Today, USD could edge higher, but as momentum is not strong, it is unlikely to break above 7.3300. Support is at 7.3000, followed by 7.2920." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We highlighted last Friday (07 Feb, spot at 7.2865) that 'while the outlook remains mixed, the decreasing volatility over the past couple of days suggests USD could trade in a narrower range of 7.2500/7.3300.' There is no change in our view."

13:19 Gold extends to near a record on new tariff threats – ING
Gold rose to a fresh record high following Trump's new tariff announcement.

Gold rose to a fresh record high following Trump's new tariff announcement. Gold is already up more than 10% year-to-date, having hit a series of consecutive record highs along the way. Tariff concerns that risk higher inflation and slower economic growth are spurring demand for safe haven assets like Gold, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note. China's central bank expands its Gold reserves "Meanwhile, China's central bank expanded its Gold reserves for a third month in January. Gold held by the People's Bank of China rose to 73.5 million troy ounces in January, from 73.3 million in the previous month. Last week, data from the World Gold Council (WGC) showed that central banks’ buying last year exceeded 1,000 tons for the third year in a row, accelerating sharply in the fourth quarter to 333 tons and bringing the net annual total to 1,045 tons." "Gold’s rally in 2024 was driven by central bank buying, especially from China. Central banks are still buying and will probably continue to do so as geopolitical tensions and the economic climate continue to push them to increase their allocation towards safe haven assets." "The latest positioning data from the CFTC shows that speculators increased their net longs of COMEX copper by 1,674 to 17,197 lots as of 4 February. In precious metals, managed money net longs in COMEX Gold decreased marginally by 366 lots for a second consecutive week to 230,226 lots over the last reporting week. The move was fuelled by rising gross long and gross shorts by 12,202 lots and 12,568 lots for the reporting week. In contrast, speculators increased net longs of silver by 11,052 lots to 37,370 lots (the highest since the last week of October) as of Tuesday, following an increase in gross longs by 10,178 lots to 57,040 lots."

13:11 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD surges to near $32.30 as Trump tariffs trigger safe-haven demand
Silver price (XAG/USD) soars to near $32.30 in Monday’s European session.

13:11 USD/JPY: Likely to trade between 151.10 and 152.70 – UOB Group
US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a range, probably between 151.10 and 152.70.

US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a range, probably between 151.10 and 152.70. In the longer run, USD outlook remains negative; the level to monitor is 150.00, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. USD outlook remains negative 24-HOUR VIEW: "After USD plummeted last Thursday, we indicated on Friday that 'while further USD weakness is not ruled out, deeply oversold conditions suggest that any decline may not reach 150.60 (minor support is at 151.00).' We pointed out that 'resistance levels are at 151.80 and 152.50.' USD subsequently swung between 150.93 and 152.41, closing largely unchanged at 151.40 (-0.03%). There has been no increase in either downward or upward momentum. Today, USD is likely to trade in a range, probably between 151.10 and 152.70." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Our update from last Friday (07 Feb, spot at 151.10) is still valid. As pointed, 'USD outlook remains negative, and the level to monitor is 150.00.' We will maintain our negative view as long as 153.30 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level) is not breached."

13:08 Oil prices go up after Trump announces new plans – ING
In crude oil, prices rose in the early trading session today, with ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moving above $75/bbl and $71/bbl respectively, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

In crude oil, prices rose in the early trading session today, with ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moving above $75/bbl and $71/bbl respectively, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes. Oil market sees a second straight session of gains "The oil market saw a second straight session of gains as the US president announced more tariffs on Sunday. Oil prices are also receiving short-term support as the US imposed sanctions on an international network facilitating the shipment of Iranian crude to China last week." "Meanwhile, drilling activity in the US recovered marginally over the last week. The latest rig data from Baker Hughes shows that the number of active US oil rigs increased by one over the week to 480 as of 7 February 2025. However, despite the weekly increase, the oil rig count is still down by 19 compared to this time last year. The total rig count (oil and gas combined) stood at 586 over the reporting week, up from 582 a week earlier." "The recent positioning data shows that speculators decreased their net long in ICE Brent by 17,981 lots over the last reporting week to 289,723 lots as of last Tuesday. This was the first weekly decline reported since 31 December 2024. The move was predominantly driven by gross longs falling by 24,308 lots to 372,368 lots. For NYMEX WTI, speculators sold 51,252 lots for a second week straight over the reporting week, leaving them with a net long of 140,540 lots – the lowest since the week ending 10 December 2024."

13:02 Portugal Global Trade Balance down to €-7.976B in December from previous €-7.434B
Portugal Global Trade Balance down to €-7.976B in December from previous €-7.434B

12:59 GBP: Tariffs versus BoE – ING
EUR/GBP is offered again this morning as the market is dominated once more by the tariff story, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

EUR/GBP is offered again this morning as the market is dominated once more by the tariff story, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes. GBP/USD to go to the lower end of the 1.2250-2500 trading range "Here, the market expects the EU to have more to lose than the UK on tariffs. We cannot rule out another drop in EUR/GBP to the 0.8250 area should tariffs hit Europe in the early part of this week. However, tomorrow could see the focus flip back to the Bank of England easing cycle." "Here, former arch-hawk – potentially now arch-dove – Catherine Mann delivers a speech on the UK outlook. Understanding why she voted for a 50bp rate cut last week could shed light on whether others will want to follow suit. A soft fourth quarter UK GDP figure out on Thursday could also add to a dovish narrative." "GBP/USD should be the focus for any sterling downside, however. We favour GBP/USD heading down towards the lower end of a 1.2250-2500 trading range."

12:54 NZD/USD: Expected to trade in a range between 0.5625 and 0.5680 – UOB Group
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is expected to trade in a range between 0.5625 and 0.5680. In the longer run, there has been a tentative buildup in momentum; NZD could rise gradually to 0.5725, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is expected to trade in a range between 0.5625 and 0.5680. In the longer run, there has been a tentative buildup in momentum; NZD could rise gradually to 0.5725, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. NZD can rise gradually to 0.572524-HOUR VIEW: "We highlighted last Friday that 'upward momentum has not increased much, but there is a chance for NZD to edge higher.' However, we pointed out that it 'is unlikely to be able to break above 0.5705.' Our expectations did not materialise as NZD traded between 0.5643 and 0.5694, closing lower by 0.34% at 0.5656. The current price movements are likely part of a range trading phase. Today, we expect NZD to trade between 0.5625 and 0.5680." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We continue to hold the same view as last Thursday (06 Feb, spot at 0.5685), wherein 'there has been a tentative buildup in momentum, and NZD could rise gradually to 0.5725.' On the downside, if NZD breaks below 0.5615 (no change in ‘strong support’ level), it would mean that it is likely to trade in a range instead of edging higher."

12:50 USD: More tariffs are coming – ING
Friday's relatively strong US job report numbers and the broadening of US tariffs are keeping the dollar supported. On the former, the jobs report has seen expectations of Federal Reserve easing this year pared back to just 35bp. Those Fed easing expectations could narrow even further this week.

Friday's relatively strong US job report numbers and the broadening of US tariffs are keeping the dollar supported. On the former, the jobs report has seen expectations of Federal Reserve easing this year pared back to just 35bp. Those Fed easing expectations could narrow even further this week. Another 0.3% core month-on-month CPI reading on Wednesday will not help the disinflation story and we'll also get to hear from Fed Chair Jerome Powell in his semi-annual monetary policy testimony to Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday. It is hard to see why Powell would want to push a more dovish narrative right now, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes. DXY to edge towards the top of a 108-109 trading range "When it comes to tariffs, it's hard to keep up with developments. We've had the threat of tariffs against Canada and Mexico seemingly for the strategic domestic agenda of fentanyl and immigration. Tariffs against China have already gone into place. Over the weekend a new set of 25% tariffs were announced on steel and aluminium tariffs. In the frame here again are Canada, Mexico, and China plus Brazil, South Korea and Germany too. These tariffs could be seen to fall under the category of protecting critical industries.""But it also seems that, over the next couple of days, we might see the imposition of 'reciprocal' tariffs – i.e., trying to level the playing field on trade. We had thought that these might come in during the second quarter after the Commerce Department delivers its report on why the US runs perennial trade deficits. If these reciprocal tariffs come in this week against those countries who have a higher tariff rate than the US, then it may be countries like Brazil, India and Korea who are most exposed. That said, reports have also suggested that reciprocal tariffs could impact everyone, and the auto sector has been highlighted as well.""Needless to say, much uncertainty about the nature, timing and magnitude of these tariffs looks likely to keep the dollar supported this week. The main threat to long dollar positions could be a re-assessment of European prospects should any expectations of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire grow later this week. However, for the time being, we doubt investors will want to let go of overweight positions in the dollar and we can see DXY edging towards the top of a 108-109 trading range through the early part of this week."

12:37 AUD/USD bounces back to near 0.6280 as investors shrug off US Trump’s tariff threats
The AUD/USD bounces back strongly to near 0.6280 and turns positive after a weak opening near 0.6235 in Monday’s European session.

12:30 AUD/USD: Not expected to breach 0.6200 – UOB Group
Slight increase in momentum suggests downward bias in Australian Dollar (AUD), but it is not expected to breach 0.6200. In the longer run, if AUD closes above 0.6310, it could trigger an advance to 0.6355, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Slight increase in momentum suggests downward bias in Australian Dollar (AUD), but it is not expected to breach 0.6200. In the longer run, if AUD closes above 0.6310, it could trigger an advance to 0.6355, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Slight increase in momentum suggests downward bias24-HOUR VIEW: "When AUD was at 0.6285 last Friday, we pointed that it 'is facing mild upward pressure, and it could test 0.6310.' However, AUD rose less than expected to 0.6303 before easing. AUD closed at 0.6277 (-0.11%) and traded on a soft note after opening today. The slight increase in downward momentum suggests downward bias in AUD today, but we do not expect a breach of the strong support at 0.6200. Resistance is at 0.6275, followed by 0.6300." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Last Thursday (06 Feb, spot at 0.6280), we noted that 'upward momentum is beginning to build, and if AUD closes above 0.6310, it could trigger an advance to 0.6355.' AUD rose to 0.6303 on Friday before easing. There has been no further increase in upward momentum, but only a breach of 0.6200 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) would indicate the likelihood of AUD breaking clearly above 0.6310 has faded."

12:24 European gas prices hit two-year high on tightening storage – ING
European natural gas prices rose to a two-year high amid colder temperatures and tightnening storage facilities, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

European natural gas prices rose to a two-year high amid colder temperatures and tightnening storage facilities, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note. Gas stockpiles are already at their lowest "Prices rose more 4% this morning, hitting the highest level seen since February 2023. Stockpiles are already at their lowest for this time of year since the energy crisis in 2022. Inventories are only 49% full compared with 67% at the same time last year."

12:21 GBP/USD: Likely to trade in a 1.2310/1.2550 range – UOB Group
The Pound Sterling (GBP) could weaken; any decline is not expected to reach the major support at 1.2310.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) could weaken; any decline is not expected to reach the major support at 1.2310. For the time being, GBP is likely to trade in a 1.2310/1.2550 range, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. GBP is not expected to reach the major support at 1.2310 24-HOUR VIEW: "We indicated last Friday that the outlook for GBP 'is mixed'. We were of the view that it could trade in a choppy manner, likely between 1.2390 and 1.2500.' In NY trade, GBP popped to a high of 1.2490 and then plummeted to 1.2377. There has been a tentative buildup in momentum, but while GBP could weaken today, any decline is not expected to reach the major support at 1.2310 (minor support is at 1.2350). Resistance is at 1.2435; a breach of 1.2465 would indicate that GBP is not weakening further." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Last Friday (09 Feb, spot at 1.2440), we indicated that 'for the time being, GBP is likely to trade in a 1.2310/1.2550 range.' There is no change in our view."

12:17 EUR: Weighted by tariffs and spreads – ING
The repricing of the Fed cycle after the strong US jobs data has seen EUR:USD two-year swap rate differentials widen back out beyond 190bp.

The repricing of the Fed cycle after the strong US jobs data has seen EUR:USD two-year swap rate differentials widen back out beyond 190bp. We expect those differentials to stay near 200bp for most of the year and to keep EUR/USD under pressure. Equally, Friday's release of the European Central Bank's staff paper into the neutral interest rate had little impact on the pricing of the ECB cycle, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes. A move back to 1.0225 is possible "The threat of tariffs coming to Europe this week has seen EUR/USD drop close to 1.03 again. A move back to 1.0225 is possible if the 'reciprocal' tariffs claw in the EU or some of the major European countries. And Wednesday's US CPI release is another negative event risk for EUR/USD." "If it can survive the tariff risk and the CPI, the run-up into Friday could look a little better for EUR/USD as investors turn their attention to the Munich security conference. Here we are expecting to hear more about the US proposed ceasefire deal in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. A surprise deal would certainly be a positive for the European currency complex."

12:08 Pound Sterling gains against US Dollar despite renewed Trump’s tariff threats
The Pound Sterling (GBP) ticks higher to near 1.2415 against the US Dollar (USD) in Monday’s European session.

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The GBP/USD pair is marginally higher even though the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is up almost 0.2%, which indicates significant strength in the Pound Sterling. The DXY Index gains as investors turn cautious about renewed global trade war tensions. US President Donald Trump threatened to raise 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports and impose reciprocal tariffs on nations he saw as engaging in unfair trade practices. Market experts believe that the impact of a global trade war will be inflationary for the US economy. Such a scenario would be favorable for the US Dollar, as Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers would be forced to hold interest rates at their current levels for longer. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the Fed is expected to keep interest rates steady in the policy meetings in March and May, and the likelihood of a 25 basis point (bps) interest rate reduction in the June meeting is 50%. Going forward, investors will focus on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before the Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday. Investors would like to know the impact of Trump’s tariffs on the economy and the monetary policy outlook. On the economic data front, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for January is scheduled to be released on Wednesday. Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling gains against all its major peers The Pound Sterling outperforms its major peers at the start of the week as investors start digesting the Bank of England’s (BoE) dovish tone on the interest rate outlook and downwardly revised Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecasts for the year. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey guided a “gradual and cautious” outlook for the monetary policy in the press conference after the central bank decided to cut interest rates by 25 bps to 4.5% last week. Bailey’s cautious stance on the interest rate outlook was based on expectations that United Kingdom (UK) inflationary pressures could accelerate to 3.7% in the third quarter due to higher energy prices before returning to the 2% path. However, investors took Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Catherine Mann’s vote for a 50-basis interest rate reduction, who has been an outspoken hawk, as an ultra-dovish stance on the policy outlook. Market participants expect Mann’s call for a bigger interest rate cut was based on her concerns over the economic outlook. The BoE halved its GDP Growth forecasts to 0.75% for the year. On Friday, comments from BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill indicated that strong wage growth is the major reason behind the cautious interest rate stance. "I think strong wage growth is a reason for caution, for carefulness in the way we proceed with removing monetary policy restriction and cutting bank rate,” Pill said. In the three months ending November, Average Earnings excluded bonuses accelerated to 5.6%, the highest figure seen since June 2024. Going forward, the next trigger for the British currency will be influenced by Andrew Bailey’s speech at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business in London on Tuesday. Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling rises above 1.2400The Pound Sterling moves higher above 1.2400 against the US Dollar on Monday. However, the outlook for the GBP/USD pair remains weak as the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) continues to as resistance around 1.2500. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting a sideways trend. Looking down, the January 13 low of 1.2100 and the October 2023 low of 1.2050 will act as key support zones for the pair. On the upside, the December 30 high of 1.2607 will act as key resistance. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

12:05 EUR/USD: Under pressure on the day – OCBC
Euro (EUR) continued to trade under pressure on tariff concerns – be it universal tariffs, reciprocal tariffs or tariffs on European autos. EUR was last at 1.0325 levels, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Euro (EUR) continued to trade under pressure on tariff concerns – be it universal tariffs, reciprocal tariffs or tariffs on European autos. EUR was last at 1.0325 levels, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Bullish momentum on daily chart fades“Last week, Trump told the BBC that tariffs on EU goods imported into the US could happen ‘pretty soon’, although he would not give a timeline. He added that ‘They don't take our cars, they don't take our farm products, they take almost nothing and we take everything from them.” “Millions of cars, tremendous amounts of food and farm products’. Over the weekend, there were reports that EU is considering to lower import tariff on American cars closer to the US rate of 2.5%, from current 10%. That said, the uncertainty on tariffs may still weigh on EUR for now.”
“Bullish momentum on daily chart faded while RSI fell. Risks to the downside. Support at 1.0240, 1.0140/80 levels (recent low). Resistance at 1.0360 (21 DMA), 1.0410 (50 DMA).”

12:00 Greece Industrial Production (YoY): 5.8% (December) vs 4.9%
Greece Industrial Production (YoY): 5.8% (December) vs 4.9%

11:56 EUR/USD: To trade in a broad range of 1.0250/1.0490 – UOB Group
Scope for EUR to weaken further; any decline is unlikely to reach the major support at 1.0250. In the longer run, outlook is unclear; EUR could trade in a broad range of 1.0250/1.0490 for the time being, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Scope for EUR to weaken further; any decline is unlikely to reach the major support at 1.0250. In the longer run, outlook is unclear; EUR could trade in a broad range of 1.0250/1.0490 for the time being, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.EUR is unlikely to reach the major support at 1.025024-HOUR VIEW: “We expected EUR to trade in a 1.0355/1.0415 range last Friday. Our expectation was incorrect, as EUR fell, reaching a low of 1.0304. Downward momentum has increased, albeit not much. There is scope for EUR to weaken further today, but any decline is unlikely to reach the major support at 1.0250 (there is another support level at 1.0275). Resistance levels are at 1.0335 and 1.0365.”1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Our view from last Wednesday (05 Feb, spot at 1.0375) still stands. As highlighted, ‘the outlook is unclear for now, and EUR could trade in a broad range of 1.0250/1.0490 for the time being’.”

11:31 Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index improves to -12.7 in February vs. -17.7 prior
The Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index improved to -12.7 in February following January’s -17.7, the latest survey showed on Monday.

Eurozone investors’ morale improves in February.EUR/USD stays better bid above 1.0300 after the Eurozone data.The Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index improved to -12.7 in February following January’s -17.7, the latest survey showed on Monday.

11:31 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Monday, according to FXStreet data.

11:31 Breaking: Gold pops to new all-time high above $2,900 on tariff fears
Gold’s price (XAU/USD) pops higher and prints a fresh all-time high above $2,900 at the time of writing on Monday.

Gold pops over 1% on Monday after more tariff headlines over the weekend. Traders pile into the precious metal as the single safe haven to withstand tit-for-tat tariff war. At this pace, Gold could be on its way to hit $3,000 quite quickly. Gold’s price (XAU/USD) pops higher and prints a fresh all-time high above $2,900 at the time of writing on Monday. The move comes after United States (US) President Donald Trump said he would announce "reciprocal tariffs" on many countries on Tuesday or Wednesday, adding to increasing uncertainty in global financial markets. On Sunday, US President Trump said a 25% levy would apply for all steel and aluminum imports into the US, but did not say when they would be applied. Meanwhile, traders will focus on Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual testimony to lawmakers on Tuesday and Wednesday for fresh clues about the path forward for US monetary policy. Powell is likely to highlight the resilient economy as a key reason central bankers are in no rush to cut borrowing costs further. This is a tail risk for Gold as, in theory, it would be a bearish element for bullion.Daily digest market movers: Too expensiveSeveral sources are reporting concerns in China about the current price of Gold. Several Chinese market participants are apparently halting their Gold buying programs for now because prices in the precious metal are too elevated, Bloomberg reports. President Trump also flagged plans for reciprocal tariffs, which would increase US import duties to match those imposed by the country’s other trading partners. The CME FedWatch tool shows a 93.5% chance that interest rates will remain unchanged in March, compared to a slim 6.5% chance of a 25 basis point (bos) rate cut. Technical Analysis: Gold stretching higher on MondayIt's a new week, and the Gold price is already rallying over 1% and printing a fresh all-time high in early trading. Risks with the headline from President Trump are that they will start to be priced in by the time the US session gets underway. The path is quite straightforward, with $3,000 nearing quickly, though quick profit-taking could be just around the corner. The Pivot Point level on Monday is the first nearby support at $2,866, followed by the S1 support at $2,846. From there, S2 support should come in at $2,832. In case of a correction, the bigger $2,790 level (October 31, 2024, high) should be able to catch any falling knives. On the upside, the R1 resistance comes in at $2,881, which was already broken earlier this Monday. In case the rally follows through in the European and US sessions, the $2,900 level, which is the confluence of a big figure and the R2 resistance, will be tested for a break to the upside.XAU/USD: Daily Chart

11:30 Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence climbed from previous -17.7 to -12.7 in February
Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence climbed from previous -17.7 to -12.7 in February

11:10 GBP/JPY climbs to 189.00 amid modest JPY weakness; upside potential seems limited
The GBP/JPY cross stages a goodish intraday recovery from the 187.00 neighborhood, or its lowest level since September 2024 retested earlier this Monday and builds on its ascent through the first half of the European session.

10:51 AUD/JPY advances to near 95.50 as Japanese Yen faces Trump’s tariff threats
The AUD/JPY cross halts its three-day losing streak, trading around 95.50 during European hours on Monday.

10:48 ECB’s de Guindos: It is very important to avoid a trade war
European Central Bank (ECB) Vice President Luis de Guindos said on Monday, “it is very important to avoid a trade war.” Additional quotes We need a prudent and intelligent approach regarding latest tariffs announcement.

European Central Bank (ECB) Vice President Luis de Guindos said on Monday, “it is very important to avoid a trade war.” Additional quotes We need a prudent and intelligent approach regarding latest tariffs announcement. Need to keep a clear head Our analysis on tariffs is that it leads to impact on supply. The impact on inflation is less clear. Have to take into account all factors on monetary policy.

10:06 USD/CAD Price Forecast: Tests 1.4350 resistance near nine-day EMA
The USD/CAD pair ends its four-day losing streak, trading around 1.4350 during Monday's European session.

10:00 Austria Industrial Production (YoY) fell from previous -2.7% to -9.6% in November
Austria Industrial Production (YoY) fell from previous -2.7% to -9.6% in November

09:56 EUR/USD rebounds while US Trump’s tariffs threats keep it on tenterhooks
EUR/USD recovers above 1.0300 in Monday’s European session after a weak opening around 1.0280.

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The major currency opened on a weak note as investors rushed to the safe-haven fleet on renewed United States (US) President Donald Trump’s tariff fears. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, gives up some of its intraday gains but is still 0.15% higher, around 108.25. Over the weekend, President Trump threatened to raise 25% tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum, as well as reciprocal tariffs on those nations where he saw unfair trade practices. The biggest casualty of Trump’s decision of 25% tariffs on metals is expected to be Canada, the largest exporter of aluminum to the US. The pressure of higher levies on metals will also be borne by Mexico, Brazil, Vietnam, and South Korea, leading exporters to the US. The impact of reciprocal tariffs is expected to be lethal on the Eurozone, which charges 10% tariffs on automobile imports from the US and pays 2.5% import duty for domestic autos supplied to it. Such a scenario will be unfavorable for the Euro (EUR), which is already vulnerable due to growing economic contraction risks and inflation undershooting the European Central Bank’s (ECB) target of 2%. Last week, analysts at Macquarie warned that a US tariff bomb would likely find “fertile ground in the EU,” escalating unresolved issues rapidly into trade tensions, given that “Europe is target-rich”. The ECB is about to continue reducing interest rates, and a few policymakers have also warned that the central bank might need to go below the neutral rate as the Eurozone economy is not strong enough to support inflation at 2%. Economists at the ECB have predicted that the bank's so-called neutral rate will probably be between 1.75% and 2.25%. In Monday’s session, investors will focus on ECB President Christine Lagarde’s speech at the European Parliament at 14:00 GMT. Lagarde will participate in the plenary debate on ECB Annual Report 2023. Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD faces pressure as USD’s safe-haven appeal increases In addition to dismal market sentiment, the US Dollar’s (USD) outperformance is also driven by growing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates in the current range of 4.25%-4.50% for the entire year. Strategists at Macquarie said, "Our updated view is for no change in the fed funds rate during 2025, with it likely to remain in the 4.25 to 4.5% range. Previously we had suggested there would be just one further 25 bps cut in either March or May." Analysts have revised their expectations for the Fed’s monetary policy outlook after the release of the upbeat US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for January. The US NFP report showed that the economy added 143K jobs in January, fewer than 307K in December, which were revised higher from 256K. Analysts at Macquarie argued that upward revisions to recent payroll months point to an even "steeper trend acceleration". Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate decreased to 4% from the estimates and the prior release of 4.1%. Average Hourly Earnings surprisingly accelerated to 4.1% on the year and rose at a robust pace of 0.5% on the month. This week, the major trigger for the US Dollar will be the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for January, which will be released on Wednesday. Investors will also pay close attention to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before the Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday. Technical Analysis: EUR/USD struggles around 1.0300EUR/USD stays under pressure at around 1.0300 in European trading hours on Monday. The major currency pair declined after facing pressure near the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 1.0436 last week, suggesting that the overall trend is still bearish. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the 40.00-60.00 range, indicating a short-term sideways trend. Looking down, the January 13 low of 1.0177 and the round-level support of 1.0100 will act as major support zones for the pair. Conversely, the psychological resistance of 1.0500 will be the key barrier for the Euro bulls. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

09:29 NZD/USD trades above 0.5650 after paring recent losses
NZD/USD trims its recent losses, trading around 0.5660 during the early European hours on Monday.

09:26 EUR/GBP tumbles to near 0.8300 as traders brace for ECB’s Lagarde speech
EUR/GBP loses traction to around 0.8315 in Monday’s early European session.

09:17 France’s Barrot: EU will respond to US President Trump's latest tariffs announcement
French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said on Monday, the European Union (EU) will respond to US President Donald Trump's latest tariffs announcement.

09:03 Forex Today: Gold rally continues, USD holds ground as markets assess Trump tariff talks
Here is what you need to know on Monday, February 10: The US Dollar stays resilient against its major rivals on Monday as markets assess the latest headlines surrounding US President Donald Trump's tariff policy.

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The economic calendar will not feature any high-impact data releases. Later in the day, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde will deliver the Annual Report at the European Parliament. US Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.06% -0.12% 0.38% 0.31% -0.08% -0.01% 0.17% EUR -0.06% -0.11% 0.45% 0.36% -0.14% 0.01% 0.19% GBP 0.12% 0.11% 0.40% 0.44% -0.03% 0.12% 0.30% JPY -0.38% -0.45% -0.40% -0.11% -0.39% -0.39% -0.21% CAD -0.31% -0.36% -0.44% 0.11% -0.36% -0.34% -0.18% AUD 0.08% 0.14% 0.03% 0.39% 0.36% 0.15% 0.33% NZD 0.00% -0.01% -0.12% 0.39% 0.34% -0.15% 0.17% CHF -0.17% -0.19% -0.30% 0.21% 0.18% -0.33% -0.17% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). Following the mixed labor market data, the USD Index closed modestly higher on Friday. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the US rose by 143,000 in January, missing the market expectation for an increase of 170,000. On a positive note, November's increase of 256,000 got revised higher to 307,000 and the Unemployment Rate edged lower to 4.1% from 4% in December. Meanwhile, President Trump said on Friday that he will announce "reciprocal tariffs" on many countries this Tuesday or Wednesday. Over the weekend, Trump also noted that he plans to impose 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports into the US. The USD Index opened with a small bullish gap and was last seen trading marginally higher on the day, slightly above 108.20. Wall Street's main indexes suffered large losses on Friday. Early Monday, US stock index futures rise between 0.1% and 0.4%. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell will testify before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday and before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes. Despite losing more than 0.5% on Friday, EUR/USD ended the previous week in positive territory. The pair holds steady above 1.0300 in the early European morning. AUD/USD started the week under bearish pressure on Trump’s announcement of imposing new 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports into the US and declined below 0.6250. In response, Australian Trade Minister Don Farrell said Monday that Australian steel and aluminum is creating "thousands of good-paying American jobs" adding that they are key for our their shared defense interests. The pair regains its traction to begin the European session and trades flat on the day above 0.6270.GBP/USD registered losses on Thursday and Friday but managed to post weekly gains. The pair holds its ground early Monday and fluctuates above 1.2400.USD/JPY declined sharply and lost more than 2% in the previous week. The pair stages a rebound toward 152.00 early Monday. During a news conference with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba on Friday, Trump said that he intends to "work out" the US' trade deficit with Japan, which currently sits around $65 billion per year. Gold preserves its bullish momentum to begin the new week, after having gained more than 2% last week. XAU/USD was last seen trading at a new record-high near $2,890. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

09:01 Sweden Industrial Production Value (MoM) rose from previous 2.4% to 5.7% in December
Sweden Industrial Production Value (MoM) rose from previous 2.4% to 5.7% in December

09:01 Sweden Industrial Production Value (YoY) climbed from previous 2.6% to 9% in December
Sweden Industrial Production Value (YoY) climbed from previous 2.6% to 9% in December

09:00 Sweden New Orders Manufacturing (YoY) increased to 5.8% in December from previous 5.1%
Sweden New Orders Manufacturing (YoY) increased to 5.8% in December from previous 5.1%

07:54 USD/CHF holds positive ground above 0.9100 on firmer US Dollar
The USD/CHF pair gathers strength to around 0.9110 during the early European session on Monday.

07:30 Netherlands, The Manufacturing Output (MoM) dipped from previous 1.3% to -1% in December
Netherlands, The Manufacturing Output (MoM) dipped from previous 1.3% to -1% in December

07:14 GBP/USD Price Forecast: Hovers around 1.2400; seems vulnerable while below 50-day SMA
The GBP/USD pair rebounds a few pips from the Asian session low and currently trades around the 1.2400 round-figure mark, nearly unchanged for the day.

07:08 EUR/JPY moves above 156.50, upside seems limited due to rising odds of BoJ’s rate hikes
EUR/JPY halts its three-day losing streak, trading around 156.70 during the Asian session on Monday.

06:57 FX option expiries for Feb 10 NY cut
FX option expiries for Feb 10 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

FX option expiries for Feb 10 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below. EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.0150 998m 1.0250 2.9b 1.0260 992m 1.0300 1.5b 1.0350 1.2b 1.0375 920m 1.0400 3b 1.0425 866m 1.0450 4.1b USD/JPY: USD amounts 151.00 606m 153.00 787m 153.50 1.2b 154.00 748m USD/CHF: USD amounts 0.9100 600m AUD/USD: AUD amounts 0.6350 547m 0.6405 759m USD/CAD: USD amounts 1.4175 1.2b 1.4400 845m 1.4425 1.5b 1.4500 660m EUR/GBP: EUR amounts 0.8345 473m

06:42 EUR/USD softens to near 1.0300 ahead of ECB’s Lagarde speech
The EUR/USD pair drifts lower to around 1.0310 during the Asian session on Monday, pressured by the stronger Greenback.

06:35 India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices rose in India on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

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The price for Gold stood at 8,129.78 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 8,083.86 it cost on Friday. The price for Gold increased to INR 94,824.19 per tola from INR 94,288.59 per tola on friday. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 8,129.78 10 Grams 81,297.83 Tola 94,824.19 Troy Ounce 252,864.70 FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly. Related newsGold price remains close to all-time high amid global trade war fears Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD remains northbound whilst $2,864 support holds Gold Weekly Forecast: Eyes on Powell’s testimony, US inflation data after another record-setting rallyGold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

06:28 Gold price remains close to all-time high amid global trade war fears
Gold price (XAU/USD) kicks off the new week on a positive note and remains well within striking distance of the all-time high touched on Friday amid persistent worries about US President Donald Trump's trade policies.

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Gold price (XAU/USD) kicks off the new week on a positive note and remains well within striking distance of the all-time high touched on Friday amid persistent worries about US President Donald Trump's trade policies. In fact, Trump said on Sunday that he will announce new 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports into the US, sparking concerns about a global trade war and underpinning the safe-haven precious metal. Meanwhile, expectations that Trump's protectionist policies would reignite inflation turn out to be another factor that benefits the Gold price, which is seen as a hedge against rising prices. That said, mostly upbeat US employment details released on Friday and inflationary concerns should allow the Federal Reserve (Fed) to stick to its hawkish bias. This, along with modest US Dollar (USD) strength, might cap the non-yielding yellow metal. Gold price attracts buyers in reaction to US President Donald Trump’s fresh tariff threats US President Donald Trump said on Sunday he will introduce new 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports into the US. Trump added that he would announce reciprocal tariffs on all countries and match their tariff rates, bolstering the safe-haven Gold price at the start of a new week. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Galuzin said there are no satisfactory proposals to start talks on Ukraine, and that statements from the West and Ukraine are nothing but buzz-building. US Vice President JD Vance is supposedly headed to Germany this week to lay out details of the US proposal. Investors remain worried that Trump's trade policies could put upward pressure on inflation in the US. This, along with the upbeat US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released on Friday, could limit the scope for the Federal Reserve to ease further and might cap the non-yielding yellow metal. The closely-watched US monthly jobs data showed that the world's largest economy added 143K jobs in January compared to 170K anticipated and the previous month's upwardly revised reading of 307K. This, however, was offset by an unexpected dip in the Unemployment Rate to 4.0%. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said on Friday that he would move towards supporting further rate cuts if they see good inflation data and the labor market stays strong. Kashkari added that we are in a good place to sit here until we get more information on the Trump administration's policies. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted that inconsistent policy approaches from the US government cause a high level of economic uncertainty that makes it difficult for policymakers to draw a bead on where the economy, and inflation specifically, is likely heading. Meanwhile, Fed Board of Governors member Adriana Kugler said that US growth and economic activity remain healthy overall, but noted that progress toward the 2% inflation goal has been somewhat lopsided. Recent progress on inflation is slow and uneven, Kugler added. A modest US Dollar strength might hold back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets around the commodity. Traders now look to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's semi-annual congressional testimony and the US consumer inflation figures for a fresh directional impetus. Gold price needs to consolidate before the next leg up amid an overbought daily RSIFrom a technical perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is still flashing overbought conditions, warranting caution for bullish traders. This makes it prudent to wait for some near-term consolidation or a modest pullback before positioning for an extension of the Gold price’s well-established uptrend. Hence, any subsequent move up is likely to confront some barrier near the $2,886-2,887 region, or the all-time peak, ahead of the $2,900 mark. Meanwhile, any corrective slide below the $2,855-2,854 immediate support could be seen as a buying opportunity. This, in turn, should help limit losses for the Gold price near the $2,834 region. Some follow-through selling, however, could drag the XAU/USD further toward the next relevant support near the $2,815-2,814 area en route to the $2,800 round-figure mark. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.

06:12 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rises to near $32.00; finds support at nine-day EMA
Silver price (XAG/USD) rebounds from recent declines, hovering near $32.00 per troy ounce during Monday's Asian session.

05:57 Trade Minister Farrell: Australia’s steel, aluminium exports create good-paying American jobs
Responding to US President Donald Trump’s announcement of imposing new 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports into the US, Australian Trade Minister Don Farrell said Monday that "Australian steel and aluminium is creating thousands of good-paying American jobs, and are key for our shared defence interests.” Farrell is looking to secure a similar exemption from tariffs it won during the previous Trump presidency in 2018.

05:09 USD/CAD rises to near 1.4350 amid escalating trade war concerns
The USD/CAD pair breaks its four-day losing streak, trading around 1.4350 during the Asian session on Monday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/CAD appreciates as Trump announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports.The Canadian Dollar faces challenges as Canada is a major supplier of steel and aluminum to the US.The US Dollar gained support after January’s job report heightened the cautious mood surrounding the Fed’s policy outlook.The USD/CAD pair breaks its four-day losing streak, trading around 1.4350 during the Asian session on Monday. This upside movement could be attributed to escalating trade tensions following recent remarks from US President Donald Trump. President Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One on Sunday that he plans to impose a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports, without specifying the affected countries. Trump also stated that additional reciprocal tariffs would be unveiled by midweek and implemented almost immediately, mirroring the tariff rates set by each country, according to Reuters. The Canadian Dollar (CAD) faced downward pressure as Canada is a major supplier of steel to the United States (US). Furthermore, Canada, with its abundant hydropower resources, accounted for 79% of total US primary aluminum imports in the first 11 months of 2024. "Canadian steel and aluminum support key industries in the US, from defense to shipbuilding and auto manufacturing," Canadian Innovation Minister François-Philippe Champagne posted on X. "We will continue to stand up for Canada, our workers, and our industries," per Reuters. On Friday, the Canadian Dollar gained ground after stronger-than-expected employment data for January, causing USD/CAD to pull back. The Canadian labor market showed resilience, adding 76,000 jobs in January—far surpassing the expected 25,000, though still below December’s 91,000. The unemployment rate dropped to 6.6%, beating forecasts of 6.8% and improving from the previous 6.7%. Meanwhile, January’s jobs report in the US indicated slowing job growth but a lower unemployment rate, which increased the likelihood of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) keeping interest rates steady this year. This supported the US Dollar (USD) and limited the downside for the USD/CAD pair. US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 143,000 in January, significantly below December’s revised figure of 307,000 and below market expectations of 170,000. However, the unemployment rate edged down to 4% in January from 4.1% in December. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

05:08 WTI recovers further from YTD low and climbs to $71.25 area; lacks bullish conviction
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices gain some positive traction for the second successive day on Monday and move away from the lowest level since December 30, around the $70.30-$70.25 area touched last week.

04:42 USD/CNH Price Forecast: Bullish tone remains in play near 7.3150
The USD/CNH pair gains ground to around 7.3140 during the Asian trading hours on Monday.

04:27 USD/INR gathers strength amid worries about Trump's tariff plans
The Indian Rupee (INR) declines on Monday, pressured by increased US Dollar (USD) demand, possibly linked to the non-deliverable forwards market.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Indian Rupee weakens in Monday’s Asian session. US Dollar demand, sustained portfolio outflows, and rising global uncertainty continue to undermine the INR. RBI intervention might cap the downside for the local currency. The Indian Rupee (INR) declines on Monday, pressured by increased US Dollar (USD) demand, possibly linked to the non-deliverable forwards market. Additionally, sustained foreign portfolio investors (FPI) outflows, the concern about an economic slowdown in India, and the uncertainty of US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies contribute to the INR's downside.

However, USD sales by state-run banks, though most likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), might help limit the local currency’s losses. In the absence of the top-tier economic data releases from the US and India on Monday, the USD/INR pair will be influenced by the USD. Indian Rupee remains vulnerable amid multiple headwinds The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to cut the policy repo rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 6.25% for the first time in nearly five years. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said the central bank was keeping its policy stance "neutral," which would open more space to support growth, signaling further rate cuts. The RBI forecasts headline inflation for FY25 at 4.8%, while the projection for FY26 remains unchanged at 4.2%. The Indian central bank estimates real GDP growth for the next year to be at about 6.7% for the first quarter (Q1), 6.7% for Q2, 7% for Q3, and 6.5% for Q4. US President Donald Trump said on Friday he plans to announce reciprocal tariffs on many countries by Monday or Tuesday, to take effect almost immediately, per Reuters. The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 143K in January, compared to the 307K increase (revised from 256,000) seen in December, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Friday. This figure came in below the market expectation of 170K. The Unemployment Rate ticked lower to 4% in January from 4.1% in December. The Average Hourly Earnings climbed 4.1% YoY in January, surpassing the market expectation of 3.8%. USD/INR maintains a constructive view, overbought RSI warrants caution for bulls The Indian Rupee trades on a weaker note on the day. The USD/INR pair paints a positive picture on the daily chart, characterized by the price holding above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

Nonetheless, the overbought 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) beyond the 70.00 mark warrants caution for bullish traders, potentially signaling a temporary weakness or further consolidation in the near term.

An all-time high of 87.62 acts as an immediate resistance level for USD/INR. Bullish candlesticks and buying pressure above this level might attract bulls aiming for the 88.00 psychological level.

On the other hand, the first downside target to watch is the 87.05-87.00 regions, representing the low of February 5 and the round mark. Consistent trading below the mentioned level, the bears could take control and drag the pair down to 86.51, the low of February 3. Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.

04:25 Japanese Yen retreats from two-month high touched against USD on Friday
The Japanese Yen (JPY) attracts some sellers at the start of a new week as US President Donald Trump's tariff threats revive fears that Japan would also be an eventual target of new US levies.

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Apart from this, a modest US Dollar (USD) strength, lifts the USD/JPY pair to the 152.00 mark during the Asian session. Against the backdrop of the upbeat US jobs report released on Friday, expectations that Trump's policies could boost inflation and limit the scope for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to ease policy provide a modest lift to the Greenback. Any meaningful JPY depreciation, however, seems elusive in the wake of the growing acceptance that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hike interest rates again this year, which continues to push Japanese government bond (JGB) yields higher. The resultant narrowing of the rate differential between Japan and other major central banks should, in turn, limit the downside for the lower-yielding JPY. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through JPY selling before confirming that the USD/JPY pair has bottomed out in the near term. Japanese Yen bulls turn cautious amid Trump’s fresh tariff threats US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that he will announce an additional 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports into the US, and will also announce reciprocal duties over what he sees as unfair trading practices. Worries that Trump's protectionist policies would put upward pressure on inflation, along with Friday's upbeat US job data, should allow the Federal Reserve to keep rates on hold, which, in turn, boosts the US Dollar. The closely-watched US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed that the Unemployment Rate declined to 4% from 4.1% and Average Hourly Earnings rose more than expected by 4.1% during the reported month. Other details of the publication revealed that the number of employed people rose by 143,000 in January compared to the 170,000 expected and the 307,000 increase (revised from 256,000) recorded in the previous month. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned last week that Japan should remain alert to potential spillover effects from rising volatility in global markets that could affect liquidity conditions for its financial institutions. The IMF added that Japan needs to be vigilant about monitoring any fallout from the Bank of Japan's rate hikes, such as an increase in the government's debt-servicing costs and a possible jump in corporate bankruptcies. Kazuhiro Masaki, Director General of the BoJ's monetary affairs department, said last Thursday that the central bank will continue to raise interest rates if underlying inflation accelerates toward its 2% target as projected. This comes on top of data showing that Japan’s inflation-adjusted real wages rose 0.6% year-on-year in December – marking the second consecutive monthly gain – and backs the case for further tightening by the BoJ. The view was echoed in the Summary of Opinions from the BoJ's January meeting, which revealed that board members had discussed the likelihood of raising interest rates further and should support the Japanese Yen. USD/JPY could face stiff resistance near the 152.45-152.50 confluenceTechnical indicators on the daily chart are holding deep in negative territory and are still away from being in the oversold zone. Apart from this, last week's breakdown below the 152.50-152.45 confluence – comprising the 100- and the 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) – favors bearish traders. Hence, any subsequent move-up is more likely to attract fresh sellers and remain capped near the said confluence support breakpoint. Some follow-through buying, however, might trigger a short-covering move and allow the USD/JPY pair to reclaim the 153.00 round figure. On the flip side, the Asian session low, around the 151.25 area, now seems to protect the immediate downside ahead of the 151.00-150.95 area, or the lowest level since December 10 touched on Friday. Acceptance below the latter could drag the USD/JPY pair below the 150.55-150.50 intermediate support, toward the 150.00 psychological mark. The downward trajectory could extend further towards the 149.60 horizontal support en route to the 149.00 mark and the December swing low, around the 148.65 region. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.

04:19 Australian Dollar depreciates due to escalated trade war tensions
The Australian Dollar (AUD) remains under pressure against the US Dollar (USD) for the third consecutive day on Monday, weighed down by escalating trade war concerns.

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The AUD/USD pair faces downward momentum after US President Donald Trump, speaking aboard Air Force One, announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports without specifying the affected countries. President Trump also stated that additional reciprocal tariffs would be unveiled by midweek, set to take effect almost immediately, matching the tariff rates imposed by each country, according to Reuters. The Australian Dollar also weakened amid growing concerns over the US-China trade war, given Australia's close economic ties with China. A new US levy on Chinese imports took effect last week, while China's retaliatory tariffs on certain US exports began this Monday. Last week, Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping had been expected to negotiate a resolution after reports surfaced about a potential phone call between the two leaders. However, that call was reportedly canceled, though hopes remain that it may still take place. Traders are increasingly confident that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will cut its 4.35% cash rate at its upcoming meeting later in February, with market expectations suggesting a 95% probability of a reduction to 4.10%. This follows data indicating that underlying inflation has moderated faster than the RBA had anticipated, prompting several major Australian banks to move their forecast for the first rate cut from May to February. Australian Dollar declines as US Dollar advances amid a cautious Fed The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the US Dollar’s value against six major currencies, rises above 108.00 at the time of writing. The Greenback receives support as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is now expected to keep interest rates steady this year, following January’s jobs report released on Friday, which indicated slowing job growth but a lower Unemployment Rate. US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 143,000 in January, significantly below December’s revised figure of 307,000 and the market expectation of 170,000. However, the Unemployment Rate declined slightly to 4% in January from 4.1% in December. US Initial Jobless Claims rose to 219K for the week ending January 31, as reported by the US Department of Labor (DOL) on Thursday. This print surpasses initial estimates of 213K and was higher than the previous week's revised tally of 208K (from 207K). Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee mentioned on Friday that inconsistent policy approaches from the US government cause a high level of economic uncertainty that makes it difficult for the Fed to draw a bead on where the economy, and inflation specifically, are likely heading. Meanwhile, Fed Board of Governors member Adriana Kugler noted that US growth and economic activity remain healthy overall, but noted that progress toward the Fed's inflation goals has been somewhat lopsided, per Reuters. In an interview with CNBC, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said that he would move towards supporting further rate cuts if they see good inflation data and the labor market stays strong China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) grew at an annual rate of 0.5% in January, up from 0.1% in December and exceeding the market forecast of 0.4%. On a monthly basis, CPI inflation rose 0.7% in January, compared to December’s flat reading of 0%, though it fell short of the expected 0.8% increase. China’s Producer Price Index (PPI) declined 2.3% year-over-year in January, matching December’s drop but coming in weaker than the market consensus of a 2.1% decrease. Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar tests 14-day EMA near 0.6250 The AUD/USD pair hovers near 0.6250 on Monday, testing the 14-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. A break below this level could weaken short-term price momentum. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also near the 50 mark, with further movement likely to determine a clearer directional trend. The AUD/USD pair is testing immediate support at the 14-day EMA of 0.6253. A decisive break below this level could shift the bias bearish, potentially pushing the pair toward 0.6087—the lowest level since April 2020, recorded on February 3. On the upside, the AUD/USD pair may explore the region around the eight-week high of 0.6330, last reached on January 24. AUD/USD: Daily ChartAustralian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.24% 0.11% 0.44% 0.45% 0.32% 0.36% 0.27% EUR -0.24% -0.07% 0.31% 0.32% 0.07% 0.21% 0.10% GBP -0.11% 0.07% 0.23% 0.35% 0.13% 0.27% 0.16% JPY -0.44% -0.31% -0.23% -0.04% -0.05% -0.08% -0.17% CAD -0.45% -0.32% -0.35% 0.04% -0.10% -0.11% -0.22% AUD -0.32% -0.07% -0.13% 0.05% 0.10% 0.14% 0.03% NZD -0.36% -0.21% -0.27% 0.08% 0.11% -0.14% -0.10% CHF -0.27% -0.10% -0.16% 0.17% 0.22% -0.03% 0.10% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

03:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1707 vs. 7.1699 previous
On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1707 as compared to Friday's fix of 7.1699 and 7.3050 Reuters estimates.

03:01 GBP/USD holds below 1.2400 on firmer US Dollar
The GBP/USD pair weakens to near 1.239 during the Asian trading hours on Monday.

02:58 EUR/USD remains subdued around 1.0300 due to fresh Trump tariff threats
EUR/USD continues its losing streak for the third consecutive session, trading near 1.0310 during Asian trading hours on Monday.

02:49 NZD/USD seems vulnerable around mid-0.5600s amid US-China trade tensions
The NZD/USD pair drops to a four-day low during the Asian session on Monday, though it rebounds a few pips in the last hour and currently trades around mid-0.5600s.

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China’s inflation figures released over the weekend fail to provide any respite to the Kiwi.The divergent Fed-RBNZ expectations support prospects for a further depreciating move. The NZD/USD pair drops to a four-day low during the Asian session on Monday, though it rebounds a few pips in the last hour and currently trades around mid-0.5600s. Spot prices, however, keep the red for the third straight day and remain vulnerable to sliding further amid worries about US-China trade tensions. In fact, the additional US levy on China went into effect last week, while China's retaliatory tariffs on some US exports kicked off this Monday. Adding to this, US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that he will announce additional 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports into the US, and will also announce reciprocal duties over what he sees as unfair trading practices. This raises the risk of a further escalation of trade war between the world's two largest economies and weighs on investors' sentiment, underpinning the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and denting demand for the perceived riskier Kiwi. Meanwhile, the latest development fuels worries that Trump's protectionist policies would put upward pressure on inflation in the US. This comes on top of the upbeat US monthly employment details released on Friday and could limit the scope for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to ease policy further. In fact, traders are now pricing in the possibility of just a 36 basis point rate cut by the Fed this year. This, to a larger extent, overshadows data showing that consumer inflation in China grew 0.7% month-on-month in January – its fastest rise in eleven months – compared to a flat reading in the previous month. However, factory-gate prices continued their downward trajectory, highlighting persistent deflationary pressures in the industrial sector. This, along with the increasing likelihood that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will deliver a third consecutive supersized rate cut later this month, suggests that the path of least resistance or the NZD/USD pair remains to the downside. Hence, any attempted recovery could be seen as a selling opportunity and run the risk of fizzling out quickly. The focus now shifts to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's semi-annual congressional testimony on Tuesday and Wednesday. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens. US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.

02:11 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD extends upside above $2,850 on trade war tensions, China’s buying
Gold price (XAU/USD) extends the rally to around $2,865 during the early Asian session on Monday.

01:50 Japan Trade Balance - BOP Basis dipped from previous ¥97.9B to ¥62.3B in December
Japan Trade Balance - BOP Basis dipped from previous ¥97.9B to ¥62.3B in December

01:50 Japan Current Account n.s.a. came in at ¥1077.3B below forecasts (¥1362B) in December
Japan Current Account n.s.a. came in at ¥1077.3B below forecasts (¥1362B) in December

01:50 Japan Bank Lending (YoY) came in at 3% below forecasts (3.1%) in January
Japan Bank Lending (YoY) came in at 3% below forecasts (3.1%) in January

01:23 Germany’s Scholz: The EU can act “in an hour” on tariffs
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said late Sunday that the European Union (EU) can act "in an hour" if US President Donald Trump slaps threatened tariffs on the bloc.

01:12 AUD/USD faces some selling pressure to near 0.6250 amid trade war threat
The AUD/USD pair attracts some sellers to near 0.6245 during the early Asian session on Monday.

00:45 US President Donald Trump says he will announce reciprocal tariffs on many countries this week
US President Donald Trump said on Friday that he plans to announce reciprocal tariffs on many countries by Monday or Tuesday, which will take effect almost immediately, per Reuters.

00:31 China’s CPI inflation rises to 0.5% YoY in January vs. 0.4% expected
China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose at an annual pace of 0.5% in January after reporting a 0.1% growth in December.

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23:53 NZD/JPY Price Analysis: Pair stabilizes but remains below key resistance The NZD/JPY pair edged higher on Monday, gaining 0.15% to trade around 85.75, but its broader bearish trend remains intact.

23:37 NZD/USD Price Analysis: Pair struggles at 20-day SMA as selling pressure builds The NZD/USD pair saw a mild decline on Monday, slipping to 0.5640 as selling pressure persisted.

22:45 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rises and reclaims $32.00 on haven demand Silver prices advanced on safe-haven demand on Monday, rising 0.90% and reclaiming $32.00 per troy ounce at the time of writing.

22:34 Australian Dollar rebounds as tariff threats ease The Australian Dollar (AUD) bounces back strongly to near 0.6290 after a weak opening around 0.6235 on Monday.

22:27 Canadian Dollar loses momentum on Monday The Canadian Dollar (CAD) stuck to familiar technicals levels on Monday, grinding sideways within a familiar range against the Greenback.

21:50 Forex Today: Attention shifts to Chair Powell’s testimony The US Dollar maintained its bullish bias at the start of the new trading week, as investors remained concerned about the likelihood of a global trade war ahead of Chief Powell’s key testimony.

21:40 Gold prices soar to record high past $2,900 amid new US tariffs on metals Gold price rallied sharply and set a record high above $2,900 on Monday after the President of the United States (US), Donald Trump, enacted tariffs of 25% on base metals.

20:23 US Dollar weakens amid mixed economic data and fresh tariff concerns The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against a basket of currencies, is trading softer near 108.30 as investors react to mixed economic data and fresh tariff concerns.

19:47 Mexican Peso falls as Trump announces new tariffs The Mexican Peso depreciated against the US Dollar on Monday after US President Donald Trump decided to apply 25% tariffs on aluminum and steel imports into the United States (US), including Mexico and Canada.

19:28 Dow Jones Industrial Average churns as investors await tariff news The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) found a slim foothold on Monday despite some volatility in the pre-market.

17:57 Macro funds liquidate some Gold length – TDS Despite new all-time highs, macro funds actually liquidated some Gold length last week, TDS’ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.

17:44 EUR/GBP Price Analysis: Pair struggles below 100-day SMA despite mild gains The EUR/GBP pair saw a mild uptick on Monday, rising to 0.8330, but remains under pressure as it struggles to reclaim the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).

17:32 GBP/USD tumbles below 1.2400, extends its losses The British Pound retreats during the North American session as the Greenback post solid gains after US President Donald Trump said he would impose tariffs on base metals.

16:32 USD/CAD gives up majority of intraday gains, outlook remains firm on Trump’s tariff threats The USD/CAD pair surrenders a majority of intraday gains and falls back to near 1.4340 from the intraday high of 1.4380, but is still 0.35% higher in Monday’s North American session.

15:53 USD/JPY gains ground near two-month low near 151.00 as Yen weakens across the board The USD/JPY pair attracts strong bids near the two-month low of 151.00 and bounces back to near 152.00 at the start of the week.

15:12 GBP flying low on the tariff radar – Scotiabank The Pound Sterling (GBP) is a moderate outperformer on the session after dipping modestly in line with its peers in light trade overnight, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

15:09 EUR is relieved that autos escaped tariff threat for now – Scotiabank The Euro (EUR) traded defensively Friday as President Trump announced that reciprocal tariffs were coming soon, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

15:07 CAD trades off early session low to hold in mid-1.43 area – Scotiabank The Canadian Dollar (CAD) has softened in response to news of reciprocal tariffs on imported steel and aluminum to the US.

14:56 USD/JPY: Tariff hit may complicate JPY direction of travel – OCBC USD/JPY rose this morning, tracking the rise in USD on tariff concerns. USD/JPY was last seen at 152.04 levels, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

14:09 US Dollar steadies while Gold rallies on tariff talk The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is broadly flat to a touch softer and trades around 108.00 at the time of writing on Monday after again a headline-filled weekend.

13:30 DXY: Boosted by tariff threats – OCBC US Dollar (USD) drifted higher on tariff headlines. Trump just announced plans to impose 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium imports (no mention of effective date) and last Fri, he spoke about introducing reciprocal tariffs this week.

13:27 Trump plans 25% tariffs on all imports of Steel and Aluminium – ING LME Auminium was steady this morning after Trump announced plans to impose 25% tariffs on all imports of Steel and Aluminium into the US.

13:24 USD/CNH: Unlikely to break above 7.3300 – UOB Group US Dollar (USD) could edge higher but is unlikely to break above 7.3300.

13:19 Gold extends to near a record on new tariff threats – ING Gold rose to a fresh record high following Trump's new tariff announcement.

13:11 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD surges to near $32.30 as Trump tariffs trigger safe-haven demand Silver price (XAG/USD) soars to near $32.30 in Monday’s European session.

13:11 USD/JPY: Likely to trade between 151.10 and 152.70 – UOB Group US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a range, probably between 151.10 and 152.70.

13:08 Oil prices go up after Trump announces new plans – ING In crude oil, prices rose in the early trading session today, with ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moving above $75/bbl and $71/bbl respectively, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

13:02 Portugal Global Trade Balance down to €-7.976B in December from previous €-7.434B Portugal Global Trade Balance down to €-7.976B in December from previous €-7.434B

12:59 GBP: Tariffs versus BoE – ING EUR/GBP is offered again this morning as the market is dominated once more by the tariff story, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

12:37 AUD/USD bounces back to near 0.6280 as investors shrug off US Trump’s tariff threats The AUD/USD bounces back strongly to near 0.6280 and turns positive after a weak opening near 0.6235 in Monday’s European session.

12:24 European gas prices hit two-year high on tightening storage – ING European natural gas prices rose to a two-year high amid colder temperatures and tightnening storage facilities, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

12:21 GBP/USD: Likely to trade in a 1.2310/1.2550 range – UOB Group The Pound Sterling (GBP) could weaken; any decline is not expected to reach the major support at 1.2310.

12:17 EUR: Weighted by tariffs and spreads – ING The repricing of the Fed cycle after the strong US jobs data has seen EUR:USD two-year swap rate differentials widen back out beyond 190bp.

12:08 Pound Sterling gains against US Dollar despite renewed Trump’s tariff threats The Pound Sterling (GBP) ticks higher to near 1.2415 against the US Dollar (USD) in Monday’s European session.

12:05 EUR/USD: Under pressure on the day – OCBC Euro (EUR) continued to trade under pressure on tariff concerns – be it universal tariffs, reciprocal tariffs or tariffs on European autos. EUR was last at 1.0325 levels, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

12:00 Greece Industrial Production (YoY): 5.8% (December) vs 4.9% Greece Industrial Production (YoY): 5.8% (December) vs 4.9%

11:31 Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index improves to -12.7 in February vs. -17.7 prior The Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index improved to -12.7 in February following January’s -17.7, the latest survey showed on Monday.

11:31 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Monday, according to FXStreet data.

11:31 Breaking: Gold pops to new all-time high above $2,900 on tariff fears Gold’s price (XAU/USD) pops higher and prints a fresh all-time high above $2,900 at the time of writing on Monday.

11:30 Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence climbed from previous -17.7 to -12.7 in February Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence climbed from previous -17.7 to -12.7 in February

10:51 AUD/JPY advances to near 95.50 as Japanese Yen faces Trump’s tariff threats The AUD/JPY cross halts its three-day losing streak, trading around 95.50 during European hours on Monday.

10:48 ECB’s de Guindos: It is very important to avoid a trade war European Central Bank (ECB) Vice President Luis de Guindos said on Monday, “it is very important to avoid a trade war.” Additional quotes We need a prudent and intelligent approach regarding latest tariffs announcement.

10:06 USD/CAD Price Forecast: Tests 1.4350 resistance near nine-day EMA The USD/CAD pair ends its four-day losing streak, trading around 1.4350 during Monday's European session.

10:00 Austria Industrial Production (YoY) fell from previous -2.7% to -9.6% in November Austria Industrial Production (YoY) fell from previous -2.7% to -9.6% in November

09:56 EUR/USD rebounds while US Trump’s tariffs threats keep it on tenterhooks EUR/USD recovers above 1.0300 in Monday’s European session after a weak opening around 1.0280.

09:29 NZD/USD trades above 0.5650 after paring recent losses NZD/USD trims its recent losses, trading around 0.5660 during the early European hours on Monday.

09:26 EUR/GBP tumbles to near 0.8300 as traders brace for ECB’s Lagarde speech EUR/GBP loses traction to around 0.8315 in Monday’s early European session.

09:17 France’s Barrot: EU will respond to US President Trump's latest tariffs announcement French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said on Monday, the European Union (EU) will respond to US President Donald Trump's latest tariffs announcement.

09:01 Sweden Industrial Production Value (MoM) rose from previous 2.4% to 5.7% in December Sweden Industrial Production Value (MoM) rose from previous 2.4% to 5.7% in December

09:01 Sweden Industrial Production Value (YoY) climbed from previous 2.6% to 9% in December Sweden Industrial Production Value (YoY) climbed from previous 2.6% to 9% in December

09:00 Sweden New Orders Manufacturing (YoY) increased to 5.8% in December from previous 5.1% Sweden New Orders Manufacturing (YoY) increased to 5.8% in December from previous 5.1%

07:54 USD/CHF holds positive ground above 0.9100 on firmer US Dollar The USD/CHF pair gathers strength to around 0.9110 during the early European session on Monday.

07:30 Netherlands, The Manufacturing Output (MoM) dipped from previous 1.3% to -1% in December Netherlands, The Manufacturing Output (MoM) dipped from previous 1.3% to -1% in December

07:14 GBP/USD Price Forecast: Hovers around 1.2400; seems vulnerable while below 50-day SMA The GBP/USD pair rebounds a few pips from the Asian session low and currently trades around the 1.2400 round-figure mark, nearly unchanged for the day.

07:08 EUR/JPY moves above 156.50, upside seems limited due to rising odds of BoJ’s rate hikes EUR/JPY halts its three-day losing streak, trading around 156.70 during the Asian session on Monday.

06:57 FX option expiries for Feb 10 NY cut FX option expiries for Feb 10 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

06:42 EUR/USD softens to near 1.0300 ahead of ECB’s Lagarde speech The EUR/USD pair drifts lower to around 1.0310 during the Asian session on Monday, pressured by the stronger Greenback.

06:35 India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data Gold prices rose in India on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

06:28 Gold price remains close to all-time high amid global trade war fears Gold price (XAU/USD) kicks off the new week on a positive note and remains well within striking distance of the all-time high touched on Friday amid persistent worries about US President Donald Trump's trade policies.

06:12 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rises to near $32.00; finds support at nine-day EMA Silver price (XAG/USD) rebounds from recent declines, hovering near $32.00 per troy ounce during Monday's Asian session.

05:09 USD/CAD rises to near 1.4350 amid escalating trade war concerns The USD/CAD pair breaks its four-day losing streak, trading around 1.4350 during the Asian session on Monday.

04:42 USD/CNH Price Forecast: Bullish tone remains in play near 7.3150 The USD/CNH pair gains ground to around 7.3140 during the Asian trading hours on Monday.

04:27 USD/INR gathers strength amid worries about Trump's tariff plans The Indian Rupee (INR) declines on Monday, pressured by increased US Dollar (USD) demand, possibly linked to the non-deliverable forwards market.

04:25 Japanese Yen retreats from two-month high touched against USD on Friday The Japanese Yen (JPY) attracts some sellers at the start of a new week as US President Donald Trump's tariff threats revive fears that Japan would also be an eventual target of new US levies.

04:19 Australian Dollar depreciates due to escalated trade war tensions The Australian Dollar (AUD) remains under pressure against the US Dollar (USD) for the third consecutive day on Monday, weighed down by escalating trade war concerns.

03:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1707 vs. 7.1699 previous On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1707 as compared to Friday's fix of 7.1699 and 7.3050 Reuters estimates.

03:01 GBP/USD holds below 1.2400 on firmer US Dollar The GBP/USD pair weakens to near 1.239 during the Asian trading hours on Monday.

02:58 EUR/USD remains subdued around 1.0300 due to fresh Trump tariff threats EUR/USD continues its losing streak for the third consecutive session, trading near 1.0310 during Asian trading hours on Monday.

02:49 NZD/USD seems vulnerable around mid-0.5600s amid US-China trade tensions The NZD/USD pair drops to a four-day low during the Asian session on Monday, though it rebounds a few pips in the last hour and currently trades around mid-0.5600s.

02:11 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD extends upside above $2,850 on trade war tensions, China’s buying Gold price (XAU/USD) extends the rally to around $2,865 during the early Asian session on Monday.

01:50 Japan Trade Balance - BOP Basis dipped from previous ¥97.9B to ¥62.3B in December Japan Trade Balance - BOP Basis dipped from previous ¥97.9B to ¥62.3B in December

01:50 Japan Current Account n.s.a. came in at ¥1077.3B below forecasts (¥1362B) in December Japan Current Account n.s.a. came in at ¥1077.3B below forecasts (¥1362B) in December

01:50 Japan Bank Lending (YoY) came in at 3% below forecasts (3.1%) in January Japan Bank Lending (YoY) came in at 3% below forecasts (3.1%) in January

01:23 Germany’s Scholz: The EU can act “in an hour” on tariffs German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said late Sunday that the European Union (EU) can act "in an hour" if US President Donald Trump slaps threatened tariffs on the bloc.

01:12 AUD/USD faces some selling pressure to near 0.6250 amid trade war threat The AUD/USD pair attracts some sellers to near 0.6245 during the early Asian session on Monday.

00:45 US President Donald Trump says he will announce reciprocal tariffs on many countries this week US President Donald Trump said on Friday that he plans to announce reciprocal tariffs on many countries by Monday or Tuesday, which will take effect almost immediately, per Reuters.

00:31 China’s CPI inflation rises to 0.5% YoY in January vs. 0.4% expected China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose at an annual pace of 0.5% in January after reporting a 0.1% growth in December.

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