Forex News Timeline
23:48 US President Donald Trump announces plan to tariff all imported cars 25%
US President re-announced his plan to add a 25% tariff on all cars imported to the US on Wednesday.
US President re-announced his plan to add a 25% tariff on all cars imported to the US on Wednesday. Trump highlighted that the tariffs on all cars not produced in the US would take effect on April 2, when the US is also set to impose far-reaching "reciprocal" tariffs on all of its trading partners.
Key highlights
Auto tariffs will be 25%.
Auto tariffs in effect April 2, collecting from April 3.
Reciprocal tariffs will be on all countries.
Auto tariffs are permanent.
Big 3 automakers will move parts production to the US.
Administration is forming a deal on TikTok.
China will have to play a role.
Possible will grant China tariff reduction on TikTok deal.
Plans to continue targeting Houthis indefinitely.
Imposing tariffs due to EU mistreatment.
Elon Musk did not advise on auto tariffs.
23:28 Canadian Dollar tests fresh highs, but risk aversion weighs on Loonie
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) traveled a lot of ground to go nowhere on Wednesday.
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Wide-ranging tariffs are becoming a real threat to investor sentiment after theTrump administration keyed up reminders that they still plan to pursue a package of tariffs that run the gamut from copper, to automobiles, to “reciprocal” tariffs on functionally every country that the US does business with. Countries that import Crude Oil from Venezuela are also on the docket to get dinged with an additional 20% tariff on everything going into the US, and European Union (EU) officials made tariff concerns all too real by acknowledging that the EU is bracing for tariffs of 20-25% on all goods imported by the US.
Daily digest market movers: Canadian Dollar rises then falls as safe haven flight takes control The Canadian Dollar rallied four-tenths of one percent to a new five-week high before falling back to Wednesday’s opening bids as Loonie traders lose hope. US President Donald Trump reiterated his intent to introduce an across-the-board tariff on all copper imports to match previous steel and aluminum tariffs. The EU acknowledged that a tariff package of 20-25% on all European goods could be coming from the Trump team, on top of an additional 20% tariff for buying Crude Oil from Venezuela. Tariff fears continue to simmer away and have begun to bubble over, crimping investor sentiment. US policymakers are beginning to flash warning signs that Trump’s tariff strategy is making interest rate cuts a difficult proposition.
Canadian Dollar price forecast
The Canadian Dollar caught a fresh bid against the US Dollar to kick off Wednesday’s price action, forcing USD/CAD to a fresh five-week low at 1.4235. However, markets reversed course and pushed the pair back toward the 1.4300 handle. USD/CAD has cycled the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.4320 for about four months, with bids caught a congestion trap forcing the pair to grind sideways on the long-term charts.
USD/CAD daily chart
Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar?
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar?
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar?
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar?
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar?
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
23:05 AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Moves near 94.70 with conflicting signals limiting directional conviction
The AUD/JPY pair edged slightly higher on Wednesday’s session ahead of the Asian open, seen trading around the 94.70 area.
AUD/JPY was seen trading near the 94.70 zone on Wednesday, holding mid-range after a mild advance.Momentum indicators flash mixed cues, with short-term bias tilted higher but overbought risks emerging.Support lies around 94.60–94.42 while resistance caps gains near the 95.20–96.45 zone.The AUD/JPY pair edged slightly higher on Wednesday’s session ahead of the Asian open, seen trading around the 94.70 area. After bouncing from earlier lows, the pair managed to extend its recovery, though intraday action remains confined within the mid-point of its daily range, with a mixed technical setup keeping broader trends in check.
From a momentum perspective, the MACD histogram signals a potential buy. Meanwhile, the Ichimoku Base Line near 94.30 maintains a neutral stance. The Relative Strength Index stands at 51 and the Stochastic oscillator at 71, both hovering in neutral territory, yet the combined RSI/Stochastic indicator printing near 85 raises early overbought warnings.
Moving average analysis shows the 20-day Simple Moving Average at 93.88 supporting upside momentum in the short term. However, longer-term pressure remains, as both the 100-day SMA at 96.98 and 200-day SMA at 98.80 continue to slope downward, suggesting underlying bearish risk remains in play.
In terms of key levels, immediate support is seen around 94.60, followed by 94.47 and 94.42. On the flip side, resistance is expected at 95.22 and 95.36, with a break above the latter potentially opening the door for a test of 96.45.
AUD/JPY daily chart
22:32 Australian Dollar struggles for direction after softer CPI
The Australian Dollar (AUD) Index hovered near recent levels on Wednesday as market sentiment shifted in response to the latest inflation data.
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Daily digest market movers: Australian Dollar flatlines as CPI cools, but fiscal policy stirs concerns The Australian Dollar struggled to build momentum as inflation data revealed a slower annual rise of 2.4% in February, below prior estimates and readings. The softer CPI reading bolstered expectations of potential rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), though traders also eyed budget-related inflation risks. Treasurer Jim Chalmers announced tax cuts for low-to-middle-income earners and further energy subsidies, prompting caution over future price stability. In the US, traders remained cautious ahead of Friday’s release of the core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) favored inflation gauge. The US Dollar Index (DXY) stayed above the 104.00 mark, recovering from last week’s lows, driven by stronger Treasury yields and persistent trade concerns. Market attention is also fixed on the April 2 announcement of reciprocal trade tariffs by US President Donald Trump, with speculation that exemptions may be granted to select partners. Recent comments from Fed officials reflected a cautious stance, noting ongoing uncertainty and trimming projections for rate adjustments in 2025. Despite easing CPI figures, inflation remains sticky in Australia’s services sector, particularly in rentals and financial services, keeping the RBA’s path uncertain. The RBA's February cut to 4.10% and Governor Michele Bullock’s measured tone continue to shape market expectations ahead of the next policy meeting. Short bets on the Australian Dollar remain elevated, with the latest CFTC data showing bearish positioning near multi-week highs. Investors will look toward upcoming quarterly inflation data and any further fiscal stimulus signals to better gauge the RBA’s next move.
AUD/USD Technical analysis
During Wednesday’s American session, the AUD/USD pair showed modest losses, trading near the 0.6300 mark after failing to sustain recent gains. Technical indicators remain tilted to the downside. The MACD printed a fresh red bar, suggesting renewed bearish pressure, while the Relative Strength Index fell to 47, reflecting a move into negative territory. Despite a neutral Stochastic reading, the combination of soft momentum and mixed moving averages paints a bearish picture. The 10-day EMA and 10-day SMA currently signal downside risk, whereas the 20-day SMA offers limited support. Immediate support levels are found near 0.6298, followed by 0.6297 and 0.6294. On the upside, resistance is located around 0.6304 and 0.6307.
Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar?
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar?
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar?
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar?
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar?
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
21:47 Forex Today: US data and ECB-speak should entertain investors
The Greenback resumed its uptrend on Wednesday amid steady concerns surrounding US tariffs and the somewhat alleviated geopolitical tensions. Investors’ focus, in the meantime, remain on the US economy and upcoming inflation data.
The Greenback resumed its uptrend on Wednesday amid steady concerns surrounding US tariffs and the somewhat alleviated geopolitical tensions. Investors’ focus, in the meantime, remain on the US economy and upcoming inflation data.Here is what you need to know on Thursday, March 27: The US Dollar Index (DXY) reclaimed the area well beyond the 104.00 barrier, rapidly leaving behind Tuesday’s hiccup amid a decent bounce in US yields across the curve. The usual weekly Initial Jobless Claims, the final Q4 GDP Growth Rate, Pending Home Sales, and the advanced Goods Trade Balance results are all due.EUR/USD dropped to levels last seen in early March near 1.0740 amid the strong resurgence of the bid bias in the US Dollar. The ECB’s M3 Money Supply and the European Commission Forecasts will gather all the attetion on the old continent.GBP/USD came under renewed selling pressure after two daily advances in a row, briefly slipping back to two-week lows near 1.2870. Retail Sales, Current Account, Goods Trade Balance, Business Investment and the final Q4 GDP Growth Rate are next on tap on March 28.USD/JPY reversed Tuesday’s marked retracement and returned to the area well north the 150.00 hurdle. The weekly Foreign Bond Investment figures are expected in “The Land of the Rising Sun”.AUD/USD mirrored the broad performance of the risk complex, flirting with two-day lows near the 0.6280 area. Next on tap in Oz will be the Housing Credit figures, seconded by Private Sector Credit, all expected on March 31.Prices of WTI rose for the third day in a row, marching to fresh three-week peaks just above the key $70.00 mark per barrel on the back of shrinking US inventories and supply concerns.Gold prices appear to have embarked on a consolidative phase, this time receding a tad to the $3,010 zone per troy ounce amid the stronger Greenback and rising US yields. The ounce of Silver ended the day slightly on the defensive despite the earlier bull run to four-day highs near the $34.00 mark.
21:15 Dow Jones Industrial Average falls ahead of fresh tariff threats
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fell on Wednesday, backsliding back below the 42,500 level and snapping a recent winning run as investors recoil from more announcements to announce more tariffs from the Trump administration.
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According to various avenues of information, the Trump administration still plans to move ahead with a wide tariff on all copper imports into the US, matching the Trump team’s recent 25% flat import tax on all steel and aluminum that cross the US border. President Trump also intends to announce additional tariffs on automobiles across the board, and European Union (EU) officials are expecting the Trump administration to announce a tariff of around 20% on all, or most, or a targeted group of goods, depending on what day it is and how Donald Trump is feeling at that time.
All of this may or may not be in addition to the anticipated “reciprocal” tariff package that President Trump intends to kick off on April 2, which countries may or may not be able to get exemptions from. Donald Trump intends to impose a matching tariff on other countries that have their own trade barriers on US goods, a rather perplexing approach to trade in general. President Trump has also floated the idea of classifying VAT, or luxury taxes, as a kind of pseudo-tariff on US goods, and including those in reciprocal tariffs.
US Durable Goods Orders eased far less than expected in February, increasing by a surprising 0.9% compared to the expected 1.0% contraction. The figure, while beating forecasts, still came in well below January’s revised 3.3%.Policymakers have warned that the Trump administration’s long-winded trade war aspirations are beginning to hurt the US's economic prospects. Red flags are also being raised by key financial agencies: according to the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) Global ratings contingent, there is a 25% probability of a US recession kicking off within the next year. S&P Global specifically highlighted that “US policy uncertainty poses risks to North American credit conditions”.
Stocks news
Equities are down across the board on Wednesday, with investor sentiment getting pummeled by rising trade war fears. Tech stocks took the hardest hit, with the Nasdaq Composite tumbling 420 points, or 2.3%. The Dow Jones shed over 250 points, declining one-half of one percent and falling to 42,350, and the S&P 500 index fell 80 points, contracting by 1.4%.Read more stock news: Procter & Gamble stock makes headway despite tariff worriesDow Jones price forecast
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is set for a fresh downside challenge as the major equity index’s near-term bull run fizzles out. After a brief retest of the 42,800 level, bids are falling back and poised for a fresh decline to the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 42,090.
Technical oscillators show bulls still have some room to run, but it's a steep climb to recover record highs north of 45,000. On the low end, a backslide could mean an extended decline back below the latest swing low into 40,660.
Dow Jones daily chart
Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones?
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average?
Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory?
Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA?
There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
20:51 Gold price flat near $3,020 as US Dollar rebounds on Trump tariff comments
Gold price has flat-lined late in the North American session, capped by the recovery of the US Dollar Index (DXY), which fell to a low of 104.18 before staging a recovery.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold price struggles to gain traction as USD recovers despite firm support above $3,000 and cautious Fed tone.The US Dollar rebounds following reports of Trump auto tariff announcement.Solid Durable Goods data, Fed comments on sticky inflation limit upside for Bullion bulls.Gold price has flat-lined late in the North American session, capped by the recovery of the US Dollar Index (DXY), which fell to a low of 104.18 before staging a recovery. The move was sponsored by the White House, which said that President Donald Trump would announce automobile tariffs at around 22:00 GMT. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $3,019, virtually unchanged.
Bullion traders failed to gain traction on headlines that Trump is considering announcing limited tariff plans and automotive tariffs, according to The Wall Street Journal. In the meantime, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the Greenback against six currencies, rises 0.32% to 104.55.
Even though the Gold price has remained mildly, downwardly pressured, the precious metal remains firmly above the $3,000 support level, which keeps buyers hopeful of achieving higher prices.
In the data space, US Durable Goods Orders were solid in February, according to the US Department of Commerce. Aside from this, Federal Reserve (Fed) officials continued to grab the headlines with comments from the St. Louis Fed’s Alberto Mussalem and the Minneapolis Fed’s Neel Kashkari.
Musalem said that the labor market is close to full employment and underscored that current policy is appropriate, given that inflation is above target. He added that the risks of inflation stalling above 2% or rising further had increased, while stating that he doesn’t foresee a recession.
Earlier, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari stated that the Fed has made notable progress in curbing inflation. However, more work remains, Kashkari said, acknowledging that policy dynamics are making the Fed’s job more complex. Nevertheless, he expressed confidence that within the next year or two the central bank should be able to begin reducing interest rates.
Meanwhile, money markets have priced in 64.5 basis points of Fed easing in 2025, according to Prime Market Terminal interest rate probabilities.
Ahead this week, traders are eyeing the release of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index.
Daily digest market movers: Gold price trades firm near $3,000, unfazed by Trump’s comments The US 10-year T-note yield is almost flat, up one basis point at 4.338%. US real yields edges down one bp to 1.973%, according to US 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yields. US Durable Goods Orders posted a solid performance in February, rising 0.9% MoM, defying expectations of a 1% decline. Core Durable Goods Orders, which exclude transportation, also impressed — climbing 0.7% MoM, up from 0.1% in January and well above the 0.2% forecast, signaling resilient business investment. On Monday, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic stated that he supports only one rate cut this year and doesn’t expect inflation to return to target until around 2027.
XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold price hovers near $3,020
Gold price trades choppy on Wednesday with the market awaiting a fresh catalyst that could push prices toward record highs or break the strong floor at $3,000. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bullish but turned flat after edging lower in back-to-back days, an indication that sellers lost strength.
That said, if XAU/USD clears the current week’s high of $3,036, that could exacerbate a test of the record high price at $3,057. A breach of the latter will pave the way for testing $3,100. Conversely, if Gold slumps beneath $3,000, this will expose the February 24 swing high at $2,956, followed by the $2,900 mark and the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,887.
Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold?
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold?
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets?
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on?
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
20:39 US Dollar edges up as Durable Goods data supports bullish case
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against a basket of currencies, is holding near the 104.30 zone during Wednesday’s session.
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Daily digest market movers: US Dollar steadies as data, Fed comments offset risk sentiment shift The Greenback benefits from stronger than forecast US Durable Goods Orders for February, which also saw prior data revised upward. US President Donald Trump announced copper tariffs will arrive sooner than markets projected, aiding USD traction. A potential ceasefire in the Black Sea between Ukraine and Russia created early downside for the DXY, but peace talks face major hurdles. Russia’s demands to lift all sanctions on agriculture and banking in exchange for ceasefire compliance cloud optimism. Fed’s Neel Kashkari reiterated that inflation progress remains incomplete, reinforcing expectations for prolonged restrictive policy. Traders remain sensitive to PCE data this week amid rising uncertainty about the rate path. Market participants cautiously assess tariff headlines and geopolitical signals, balancing risk appetite against Fed tightening signals.
DXY technical analysis: Mildly bullish tone pervades market
The US Dollar Index shows a mildly bullish tone in Wednesday’s session, trading within the 104.18–104.46 range. While the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) prints a slight buy signal, broader pressure remains bearish as the 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) all signal selling.
The 30-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and SMA continue to act as upper barriers. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) appears neutral when paired with the stochastic, though short-term momentum remains weak. Key resistance lies at 104.43, 104.47 and 104.53, while immediate supports sit at 104.09 and 103.84.
Inflation FAQs What is inflation?
Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%. What is the Consumer Price Index (CPI)?
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls. What is the impact of inflation on foreign exchange?
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money. How does inflation influence the price of Gold?
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
20:09 BoC Minutes: Would have left rates unchanged if not for tariff uncertainty
The Bank of Canada's (BoC) latest Meeting Minutes showed the Canadian central bank may be much closer to freezing on interest rates than previously thought.
The Bank of Canada's (BoC) latest Meeting Minutes showed the Canadian central bank may be much closer to freezing on interest rates than previously thought. According to the record of the latest rate call meeting by BoC policymakers, the BoC stretched for an eighth consecutive rate cut as a result of ongoing trade and tariff uncertainty from the US's Trump administration, all in an effort to try and bolster the Canadian economy one last time before US President Donald Trump's self-styled trade war begins to take full effect.
Key highlights
The governing council decided a 25 bps cut would provide some help to Canadians to manage the uncertainty related to tariffs.
The governing council would probably have left rates unchanged at 3% had there not been a tariff threat and increased uncertainty.
Ahead of Bank of Canada's March 12th rate announcement, The Governing Council was generally assigning less weight to downside risks to inflation.
Governing Council generally agreed that new data had shifted the balance, with somewhat less risk of lower inflation outcomes.
The Governing Council agreed it would not be appropriate to provide guidance on the future path for rates.
Other members felt threat of tariffs and uncertainty had changed the outlook enough to warrant a cut.
Governing Council agreed to proceed carefully with further changes to monetary policy.
Governing Council noted it could take time for these opposing effects to materialize.
Some governing council members suggested keeping rate unchanged until there was more clarity on the effects of tariffs.
Governing Council agreed to assess the balance between upward pressures on inflation from higher costs and downward pressures from weaker demand.
20:05 Fed's Musalem: I expect inflation back to 2% by 2027
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem hit the wires hard on Wednesday, adding his voice to a growing chorus of Fed policymakers who are flashing warning signs on ham-handed tariff policies from the Trump administration that are knocking the stable US economy for a loop and pushing both uncertainty and inflation factors higher.
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem hit the wires hard on Wednesday, adding his voice to a growing chorus of Fed policymakers who are flashing warning signs on ham-handed tariff policies from the Trump administration that are knocking the stable US economy for a loop and pushing both uncertainty and inflation factors higher. With economic unease on the rise, it is getting harder for the Fed to accurately forecast the US economy's trajectory, making it more difficult for the Fed to deliver rate cuts that US President Donald Trump insists he wants.
Key highlights
There are risks that inflation will stall above 2% or move higher in the near term appear to have increased.
Growth does appear to have slowed, surveys point to caution among businesses and consumers.
My baseline is for economy and job market to remain strong, and for inflation to fall.
If the the labor market remains strong and second round tariff effects become apparent, fed may need to keep rates higher for longer or consider more restrictive policy.
Patience with current policy appropriate as the Fed gathers evidence inflation is returning to target.
The labor market is at or close to full employment.
It's appropriate for policy to remain where it is given inflation above target.
Growth will be healthy even if it moderates; no urgency to lower interest rates.
The net effect of Trump policies is still uncertain.
It's probable in the near term that inflation will be higher than expected and that growth will be lower than expected.
That situation presents some challenges for monetary policy given possible tension between mandates.
If expectations start to shift higher, the Fed may have to lean more towards its inflation mandate.
Small businesses say they're holding off on hiring and investing.
Stagflation is a more extreme situation than what the US might go through in the coming months.
I do not see recession on the horizon.
I expect inflation back to 2% by 2027.
19:37 Mexican Peso softens ahead of Banxico decision as economic outlook weighs
The Mexican Peso (MXN) depreciates against the US Dollar (USD) during the North American session on Wednesday following the release of economic data during the week, which highlighted the evolution of the disinflation process as well as an economy that is weakening.
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Traders are bracing for Banco de Mexico’s (Banxico) monetary policy decision on Thursday. The central bank is expected to reduce rates by 50 basis points (bps) from 9.50% to 9% due to the evolution of the disinflation process and signs that the economy is slowing down.
This week, Mexico’s economic schedule revealed that Economic Activity in January improved compared to December but remained in contractionary territory for the second consecutive month. Meanwhile, inflation data was positive as the first-half inflation in March dropped in both headline and core readings, an indication of the evolution of the disinflation process.
Other data showed that Retail Sales in January were solid, exceeding the previous month's reading and forecasts, but it is the first solid reading since April 2024, as sales shrank during the last eight straight months.
Given the backdrop, further upside is seen in USD/MXN. However, if US President Donald Trump makes tariff exemptions to Mexico, the outlook for the economy could improve. Hence, the Peso could strengthen and exert downward pressure on the exotic pair.
Ahead this week, Mexico’s docket will feature the Balance of Trade and Banxico’s interest rate decision. Across the border, the US schedule will feature the release of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index.
Daily digest market movers: Mexican Peso drops ahead of Banxico’s meeting The Citi Expectations Survey revealed that most private economists expect Banxico to reduce rates by 50 basis points. According to the survey, Mexico’s primary reference rate is expected to end 2025 at 8%, down from 8.25%. The same survey projects the USD/MXN to end at 20.98, down from 21.00 in the last poll. Inflation expectations remained anchored in the high 3% range, while GDP is foreseen expanding by 0.6%, down from 0.8% in the last survey. Traders had priced the Fed to ease policy by 64 basis points (bps) throughout the year, according to data from the Chicago Board of Trade.
USD/MXN technical outlook: Mexican Peso loses traction as USD/MXN rises past 20.10
USD/MXN remains upwardly biased. Although it has refreshed a two-day high at 20.16, it fell below 20.10, paving the way for further downside. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that momentum does not support either buyers or sellers, hinting at choppy trading conditions.
That said, the first key support would be the 20.00 figure. If hurdled, the next support would be the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 19.71, followed by the September 18 swing low of 19.06. On the other hand, if USD/MXN bulls clear the 20.20 mark, the exotic pair would be poised to test the confluence of the 100-day and 50-day SMAs at 20.22 and 20.38 each, ahead of the 20.50 area.
Mexican Peso FAQs What key factors drive the Mexican Peso?
The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity. How do decisions of the Banxico impact the Mexican Peso?
The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. How does economic data influence the value of the Mexican Peso?
Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Mexican Peso?
As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
19:04 United States 5-Year Note Auction fell from previous 4.123% to 4.1%
United States 5-Year Note Auction fell from previous 4.123% to 4.1%
18:00 Russia Industrial Output below forecasts (1.8%) in February: Actual (0.2%)
Russia Industrial Output below forecasts (1.8%) in February: Actual (0.2%)
17:48 EUR/USD Price Analysis: Consolidates near 1.0800 with bullish trend under soft pressure
EUR/USD traded with slight weakness on Wednesday's session after the European close, seen hovering around the 1.0800 zone.
EUR/USD was seen hovering near the 1.0800 area after posting mild losses on Wednesday.Despite intraday softness, the broader trend remains bullish, supported by upward-sloping moving averages.MACD shows a sell signal while support lies at 1.0770 and resistance at 1.0820 and beyond.EUR/USD traded with slight weakness on Wednesday's session after the European close, seen hovering around the 1.0800 zone. The pair remained within its daily range, reflecting limited directional conviction, but still holding above key moving averages that keep the broader bullish trend intact.
From a technical standpoint, the pair is supported by the 20-day Simple Moving Average at 1.0773, along with the 100-day and 200-day SMAs at 1.0520 and 1.0729, respectively—all pointing higher. The 30-day EMA and SMA also reinforce the bullish structure, with the pair consistently trading above these dynamic supports.
However, some mixed signals arise from the oscillators. The Relative Strength Index sits at 57, reflecting neutral momentum, while the Average Directional Index prints at 29, suggesting moderate trend strength. The MACD, despite remaining above the signal line, has turned lower and now issues a soft sell signal. Meanwhile, the combined RSI/Stochastic indicator confirms a neutral stance.
Looking at levels, initial support comes at 1.0773 followed by 1.0765. On the upside, resistance is seen around 1.0820 and later near 1.0853, where bulls may encounter further challenges. Until a clear breakout materializes, the pair may continue consolidating within this range.
EUR/USD daily chart
17:30 GBP/USD slides below 1.29 on soft UK CPI, budget presentation
The Pound Sterling depreciated against the US Dollar on Wednesday as UK inflation came in softer than expected, while investors scrutinized the Spring Budget.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}UK inflation dips to 2.8%, fueling BoE rate cut bets despite cautious central bank messaging.Reeves’ Spring Budget delivers £7bn in cuts, sticking to fiscal rules amid downgraded growth outlook.US Durable Goods data beats estimates, helping USD recover ground against the Pound.The Pound Sterling depreciated against the US Dollar on Wednesday as UK inflation came in softer than expected, while investors scrutinized the Spring Budget. Across the pond, mixed US economic data lent a lifeline to the Greenback, which pared losses versus the British pound. The GBP/USD trades at 1.2895, down 0.36%.
Pound drops as inflation cools and Reeves’ budget tightens spending
The UK’s inflation rate dipped below estimates, with headline figures rising 2.8% year-over-year (YoY) in February, compared to 3% in January. The Core CPI for the same period decreased by two-tenths, from 3.7% to 3.55% YoY, also below forecasts of 3.6%.
Even though this adds pressure on the Bank of England (BoE) to cut rates, the bank warned against assuming that rate cuts would be quick.
Regarding the spring budget, the Chancellor of Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, reduced the government’s spending plans and adhered to her fiscal target.
Some of the primary key takeaways were welfare cuts of over £3.4 billion and cuts to current spending of over £3.6 billion. There were no changes or loosening of the fiscal rules to allow extra borrowing, and spending on defense increased by £6.4bn by 2027.
UK’s Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) updated their forecasts, with the economy expected to grow 1% in 2025, down from 2% forecast in October. Inflation is projected to remain around 3.2% up from 2.6% in the Autumn budget in 2025 and is expected to fall to 2.1% in 2026.
The GBP/USD dropped on the news, yet it has trimmed some of its earlier losses.
Across the pond, US Durable Goods Orders were solid in February, according to the US Department of Commerce. Orders rose 0.9% MoM, exceeding the forecast for a 1% contraction. Core Durable Goods Orders, excluding transportation, rose by 0.7% month-over-month (MoM), up from 0.1% in January, and above the estimated 0.2% increase.
Recently, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the Fed has made significant progress in bringing inflation down, although there is still more work to be done. He added that policy is complicating the Fed’s job, and that in the next year or two, they ought to be able to reduce interest rates.
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
The GBP/USD is retracing at the time of writing, with sellers eyeing a decisive break below the March 10 daily low of 1.2861, which, if cleared, could pave the way for a test of the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.2800. If surpassed, the next stop would be 1.2700. Conversely, if GBP/USD rises past 1.2900, buyers could challenge the current week’s peak at 1.2973, ahead of the 1.30 mark.
British Pound PRICE This week
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. British Pound was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.32% 0.21% 0.90% -0.75% -0.58% -0.20% 0.09% EUR -0.32% -0.22% 0.07% -1.02% -0.92% -0.47% -0.18% GBP -0.21% 0.22% 0.70% -1.42% -0.73% -0.24% -0.07% JPY -0.90% -0.07% -0.70% -1.64% -1.50% -1.08% -0.82% CAD 0.75% 1.02% 1.42% 1.64% 0.22% 0.55% 0.85% AUD 0.58% 0.92% 0.73% 1.50% -0.22% 0.46% 0.74% NZD 0.20% 0.47% 0.24% 1.08% -0.55% -0.46% 0.36% CHF -0.09% 0.18% 0.07% 0.82% -0.85% -0.74% -0.36%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
16:35 Fed’s Kashkari: Policy uncertainty is complicating the Fed’s job
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari reiterated that there is still job to be done regarding inflation.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari reiterated that there is still job to be done regarding inflation.Key QuotesWe've made a lot of progress bringing inflation down, still more work to do. Job market has stayed strong, biggest challenge is to finish the job. Policy uncertainty is complicating the Fed's job. Relative to other countries, the U.S. is relatively insulated to trade dynamics. After 2018 tariffs, we saw less reshoring of manufacturing to the U.S. than to other countries.
16:30 United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change: -3.341M (March 21) vs previous 1.745M
United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change: -3.341M (March 21) vs previous 1.745M
16:27 AUD/USD trades indecisively around 0.6300 after soft Aussie inflation data
The AUD/USD pair exhibits indecisiveness around 0.6300 during North American trading hours on Wednesday.
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The inflation data rose at a slower pace of 2.3%, compared to estimates and January’s reading of 2.5%. Technically, soft inflation data should have boosted market expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could cut interest rates again in the April meeting. However, traders would also discount the expansionary fiscal budget unveiled by Treasurer Jim Chalmers on Tuesday, which is expected to be inflationary for the Australian economy.
The major highlight of the budget was a progressive reduction in personal taxes for individuals’ earnings between $18,201 and $45,000 for the next three years. The administration announced additional $1.8 billion in energy bill relief, supporting households against high inflation.
In the February meeting, the RBA reduced its Official Cash rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.10%, and RBA Governor Michele Bullock guided a ‘gradual and cautious’ monetary policy easing in the February policy meeting.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) ticks higher but trades in a limited range amid uncertainty over how tariffs by United States (US) President Donald Trump will shape the domestic outlook. Trump is poised to unveil reciprocal tariffs on April 2. However, he has indicated that a few nations could get tariff breaks.
On the economic data front, investors await the US Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for February, which will be released on Friday. Economists expect the US core PCE inflation, which is the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge, to have grown at a faster pace of 2.7% year-on-year, compared to the 2.6% increase seen in January.
Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar?
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar?
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar?
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar?
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar?
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
16:03 Gold: Chinese Life Insurance companies become members of the exchange – TDS
China Lifecos are already on the bid in Gold. The Shanghai Gold exchange admitted four Chinese Life Insurance companies as members of the exchange, enabling them to purchase Gold as part of a pilot program that could grow the network of Gold buyers and create a massive new buying impulse, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.
China Lifecos are already on the bid in Gold. The Shanghai Gold exchange admitted four Chinese Life Insurance companies as members of the exchange, enabling them to purchase Gold as part of a pilot program that could grow the network of Gold buyers and create a massive new buying impulse, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.
Gold prices continue to rally north of $3000
"These four lifecos alone have nearly 13Trillion yuan in total assets and represent nearly 2/3 of the total potential buying impulse from this pilot program. We estimate that a 1% allocation into Gold amounts to roughly $17.8bn of new fund inflows, equivalent to roughly 183 tonnes (5.9mn toz)."
"This could amount to a massive buying impulse, equivalent to roughly half of the yearly global official central bank purchases on average over the last five years. While there is no timeline associated with building this allocation, these firms have demonstrated interest in doing so, having reported their first such purchase within the first trading session in which they received membership."
"In today's market context, which already features near-perfect inverse correlation between two of Gold's major buying cohorts, this could add another element to the asymmetry that is benefiting prices. Conversely, the downside is limited by the significantly smaller scale of macro fund positioning. Expect more FOMO from funds ahead as prices continue to rally north of $3000/oz."
15:16 UK's Reeves: Real disposable income to grow this year at nearly twice the rate forecast in October
While delivering the Spring Budget, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves noted that they will bring forward 3.25 billion Sterling of investment to reform public services, per Reuters.
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While delivering the Spring Budget, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves noted that they will bring forward 3.25 billion Sterling of investment to reform public services, per Reuters.Key takeaways"Day-to-day public spending will rise by 1.2% a year in real terms, vs 1.3% in October.""Day-to-day spending in 2029-30 will be 6.1 billion Sterling lower than planned in October.""Will increase capital spending by an average of 2 billion Sterling a year.""Planning reforms will permanently boost GDP by 0.2% in 2029/30.""Planning reforms will add 0.4% to GDP in 10 years.""Overall measures will boost UK GDP by 0.6% in 10 years.""Growth reforms will deliver an extra 3.4 billion Sterling to support public services by 2029/30.""Our economy is forecast to be larger at the end of forecast period than forecast in October.""Real household disposable income will grow this year at nearly twice the rate forecast in October."Market reactionGBP/USD stays in the lower half of its daily range as markets assess the details of the Spring Budget. At the time of press, the pair was down 0.3% on the day at 1.2905. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data.
Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
15:03 UK's OBR: We now expect real GDP growth of 1.0% this year
The UK's Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) said on Wednesday that the UK's long-term fiscal outlook remains very challenging amid the uncertainty surrounding the full impact of changes to welfare policies, per Reuters.
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The UK's Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) said on Wednesday that the UK's long-term fiscal outlook remains very challenging amid the uncertainty surrounding the full impact of changes to welfare policies, per Reuters.Key takeaways"We now expect real GDP growth of 1.0% this year.""UK economy forecast to grow 1.9% in 2026, 1.8% in 2027, 1.7% in 2028, 1.8% in 2029.""OBR sees CPI of 3.2% in 2025 (October forecast 2.6%).""OBR sees CPI of 2.1% in 2026 (October forecast 2.3%).""Tax-to-GDP ratio is forecast to increase to a post-war high of 37.7% of GDP in 2027-28.""High and volatile market expectations for bank rate and gilt yields continue to shape the fiscal outlook.""The outlook for productivity growth is uncertain both in terms of its level and growth rate.""If recent weakness in trend productivity growth persists and growth averages just 0.3%, the current budget would be in deficit by 1.4% of GDP in 2029-30.""Current headroom is very small margin compared to the risks and uncertainty inherent in any fiscal forecast.""Public spending is forecast to rise to 45.% of GDP next year, before declining over the remainder of the decade to 43.9% of GDP in 2029-30.""Tax as a share of GDP is forecast to rise from 35.3% this year to a historic high of 37.7% in 2027-28 and remain at a high level for the rest of the forecast."Market reactionGBP/USD stays under modest bearish pressure and was lasts seen losing 0.4% on the day at 1.2893. Meanwhile, the 10-year UK government bond yield holds lower, losing about 2.5 basis points at 4.73%, 2-year government bond yield rises and now stays flat on the day at 4.298% and the 30-year government bond yield reverses earlier fall, rising to its highest level since mid-January at 5.407%. UK gilt yields FAQs What are UK Gilt Yields? UK Gilt Yields measure the annual return an investor can expect from holding UK government bonds, or Gilts. Like other bonds, Gilts pay interest to holders at regular intervals, the ‘coupon’, followed by the full value of the bond at maturity. The coupon is fixed but the Yield varies as it takes into account changes in the bond's price. For example, a Gilt worth 100 Pounds Sterling might have a coupon of 5.0%. If the Gilt's price were to fall to 98 Pounds, the coupon would still be 5.0%, but the Gilt Yield would rise to 5.102% to reflect the decline in price. What factors influence the level of Gilt Yields? Many factors influence Gilt yields, but the main ones are interest rates, the strength of the British economy, the liquidity of the bond market and the value of the Pound Sterling. Rising inflation will generally weaken Gilt prices and lead to higher Gilt yields because Gilts are long-term investments susceptible to inflation, which erodes their value. Higher interest rates impact existing Gilt yields because newly-issued Gilts will carry a higher, more attractive coupon. Liquidity can be a risk when there is a lack of buyers or sellers due to panic or preference for riskier assets. How do interest rates impact UK Gilt Yields? Probably the most important factor influencing the level of Gilt yields is interest rates. These are set by the Bank of England (BoE) to ensure price stability. Higher interest rates will raise yields and lower the price of Gilts because new Gilts issued will bear a higher, more attractive coupon, reducing demand for older Gilts, which will see a corresponding decline in price. How does inflation influence UK Gilt Yields? Inflation is a key factor affecting Gilt yields as it impacts the value of the principal received by the holder at the end of the term, as well as the relative value of the repayments. Higher inflation deteriorates the value of Gilts over time, reflected in a higher yield (lower price). The opposite is true of lower inflation. In rare cases of deflation, a Gilt may rise in price – represented by a negative yield. What is the relationship between Gilt Yields and the Pound Sterling? Foreign holders of Gilts are exposed to exchange-rate risk since Gilts are denominated in Pound Sterling. If the currency strengthens investors will realize a higher return and vice versa if it weakens. In addition, Gilt yields are highly correlated to the Pound Sterling. This is because yields are a reflection of interest rates and interest rate expectations, a key driver of Pound Sterling. Higher interest rates, raise the coupon on newly-issued Gilts, attracting more global investors. Since they are priced in Pounds, this increases demand for Pound Sterling.
14:37 US Durable Goods Orders rise 0.9% in February vs. -1% expected
Durable Goods Orders in the US rose by 0.9%, or $2.7 billion, in February to $289.3 billion, the US Census Bureau reported on Wednesday. This reading followed a 3.3% increase (revised from 3.1%) reported in January and came in better than the market expectation for a decrease of 1%.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}Durable Goods Orders in the US rose unexpectedly in February.US Dollar Index stays in daily range above 104.00.Durable Goods Orders in the US rose by 0.9%, or $2.7 billion, in February to $289.3 billion, the US Census Bureau reported on Wednesday. This reading followed a 3.3% increase (revised from 3.1%) reported in January and came in better than the market expectation for a decrease of 1%."Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.7%," the Census Bureau noted in its press release. "Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.8%. Transportation equipment, also up two consecutive months, led the increase, $1.4 billion or 1.5% to $98.3 billion."Market reactionThese figures don't seem to be having a noticeable impact on the US Dollar's valuation. At the time of press, the US Dollar Index was up 0.1% on the day at 104.32. US Dollar PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.29% 0.15% 0.60% -0.60% -0.67% -0.28% 0.05% EUR -0.29% -0.25% -0.21% -0.84% -0.97% -0.52% -0.19% GBP -0.15% 0.25% 0.45% -1.21% -0.76% -0.27% -0.07% JPY -0.60% 0.21% -0.45% -1.18% -1.28% -0.85% -0.58% CAD 0.60% 0.84% 1.21% 1.18% -0.02% 0.31% 0.63% AUD 0.67% 0.97% 0.76% 1.28% 0.02% 0.47% 0.78% NZD 0.28% 0.52% 0.27% 0.85% -0.31% -0.47% 0.38% CHF -0.05% 0.19% 0.07% 0.58% -0.63% -0.78% -0.38% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
14:30 United States Durable Goods Orders above expectations (-1%) in February: Actual (0.9%)
United States Durable Goods Orders above expectations (-1%) in February: Actual (0.9%)
14:30 United States Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation came in at 0.7%, above forecasts (0.2%) in February
United States Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation came in at 0.7%, above forecasts (0.2%) in February
14:30 United States Durable Goods Orders ex Defense fell from previous 3.5% to 0.8% in February
United States Durable Goods Orders ex Defense fell from previous 3.5% to 0.8% in February
14:19 US Dollar flat amidst surprise Copper tariffs to come soon, Russia-Ukraine negotiations
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is currently bouncing off the 104.00 mark and consolidates on Wednesday ahead of the US Durable Goods Orders data for February.
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On one hand, the DXY sees some selling pressure from a Black Sea ceasefire deal brokered by the United States (US), where Ukraine is willing to commit and Russia backtracks and demands a lift in all sanctions on banks and agricultural companies.
On the other hand, the buying pressure comes from comments from US President Donald Trump, who said Copper tariffs are coming in a couple of weeks, much sooner than markets anticipated.
On the economic data front, all eyes are on the February Durable Goods Orders. Expectations are already quite bearish, with a 1% contraction for the forecast number compared to the previous month’s 3.2% increase. On the Federal Reserve (Fed) front, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkarai and St Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem are due to speak later this Wednesday. Daily digest market movers: Durable Goods to set the toneAt 11:00 GMT, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) released the weekly Mortgage Applications number. This week’s number came in at -2% compared to the previous contraction of 6.2%. At 12:30 GMT, the February Durable Goods Orders data are due: The headline Orders are expected to come in at -1%, a substantial drop from the previous 3.2%. Durable Goods excluding Transportation are expected to tick up to 0.2% from 0.0% in the previous month. Around 14:00 GMT, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Neel Kashkari, will host a Fed Listens event and conversation at the Detroit Lakes Regional Chamber of Commerce Economic Summit of Detroit Lakes, Minnesota. Just 10 minutes after Fed's Kashkari, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will speak at the Paducah Area Chamber of Commerce/Greater Paducah Economic Development Luncheon. Equities are not breaking any pots this Wednesday, with slim gains in Asia and minor losses in Europe and in the US futures. According to the CME Fedwatch Tool, the probability of interest rates remaining at the current range of 4.25%-4.50% in May’s meeting is 88.4%. For June, the odds for borrowing costs being lower stand at 65.6%. The US 10-year yield trades around 4.31%, with bond traders looking for direction on these offsetting events in Ukraine and US tariffs. US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Push and PullThe US Dollar Index (DXY) consolidates this Wednesday. Technically, support at 104.00 is good for a bounce, while concerns on tariffs and the impact on the US economy are supporting the US Dollar’s strength. On the contrary, the ongoing talks for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal mean that a sigh of relief could ripple through markets, weighing on the US Dollar.
With the weekly close above 104.00 last week, a large sprint higher towards the 105.00 round level could still occur, with the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) converging at that point and reinforcing this area as a strong resistance at 104.96. Once broken through that zone, a string of pivotal levels, such as 105.53 and 105.89, could limit the upward momentum.
On the downside, the 104.00 round level is the first nearby support after a successful bounce on Tuesday. If that does not hold, the DXY risks falling back into that March range between 104.00 and 103.00. Once the lower end at 103.00 gives way, watch out for 101.90 on the downside.
US Dollar Index: Daily Chart
US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar?
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar?
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar?
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar?
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
13:31 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD clings to gains below $34 on Trump tariff woes
Silver price (XAG/USD) holds onto gains near $33.80 in European trading hours on Wednesday.
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Fears of imposition of potential tariffs by Donald Trump on April 2 have dented the confidence of households in the economy. The US Conference Board reported on Tuesday that the Consumer Confidence, a leading indicator of individuals’ confidence in economic prospects, declined to 92.9, significantly lower than 100.1 seen in February. The scenario of heightened economic uncertainty often leads to an increase in the safe-haven demand of non-yielding assets, such as Silver.
However, Trump has teased that not all impending tariffs will come into effect on April 2 as he may give a "lot of countries" breaks on tariffs.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades sideways around the three-week high of 104.50. The US Dollar is expected to trade cautiously as investors expect Trump’s economic policies could result in an economic slowdown and a resurgence in inflationary pressures in the US economy.
This week, the major trigger for the US Dollar will be the US Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for February, which will be released on Friday. The inflation data will influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook. The Silver price carries an inverse relationship with the degree of US interest rates.
Silver technical analysis
Silver price strives to revisit the flat border of the Ascending Triangle chart pattern formation on the daily timeframe near the October 22 high of $34.87. The upward-sloping border of the above-mentioned chart pattern is placed from the August 8 low of $26.45. Technically, the Ascending Triangle pattern indicates indecisiveness among market participants.
The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $33.10 continues to provide support to the Silver price.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) rebounds above 60.00, suggesting a resurgence in bullish momentum.
Looking down, the March 6 high of $32.77 will act as key support for the Silver price. While, the October 22 high of $34.87 will be the major barrier.
Silver daily chart
Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver?
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices?
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices?
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves?
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
13:16 USD/CNH: May have enough momentum for USD to rise to 7.2820 – UOB Group
US Dollar (USD) is expected to trade in a 7.2540/7.2700 range vs Chinese Yuan (CNH).
US Dollar (USD) is expected to trade in a 7.2540/7.2700 range vs Chinese Yuan (CNH). In the longer run, there appears to be enough momentum for USD to rise to 7.2820, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Below 7.2450, the current upward pressure is set to ease
24-HOUR VIEW: "Yesterday, USD traded in a subdued manner between 7.2610 and 7.2715 before closing little changed at 7.2664 (+0.05%). The price action provides no fresh clues. Today, we expect USD to trade in a 7.2540/7.2700 range."
1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "After rising for a few days in a row, the advance in USD slowed yesterday as it closed largely unchanged at 7.2664 (+0.05%). However, USD appears to have enough momentum to rise further to 7.2820. On the downside, a breach of 7.2450 would mean that the current upward pressure has eased."
13:11 USD/JPY is unlikely to sustain a break above 151.71 – BBH
USD/JPY is up near 150.50. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated the bank’s guidance that it will continue to raise interest rates if its economic outlook is realized, BBH's FX analysts report.
USD/JPY is up near 150.50. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated the bank’s guidance that it will continue to raise interest rates if its economic outlook is realized, BBH's FX analysts report.
BOJ is unlikely to tighten the policy by more than is priced-in
"Ueda cautioned again that underlying price trend is still below the BOJ’s 2% inflation target, signaling that the bar is high for the bank to dial-up the pace of rate hikes. As such, the BOJ is unlikely to tighten the policy by more than is currently priced-in."
"The swaps market continues to imply about 50bps of rate hikes over the next twelve months. BOJ rate hike expectations suggests USD/JPY is unlikely to sustain a break above key resistance at its 200-day moving average at 151.71."
13:08 USD/JPY: Likely to consolidate between 149.40 and 150.50 – UOB Group
US Dollar (USD) is expected to consolidate vs Japanese Yen (JPY) between 149.40 and 150.50.
US Dollar (USD) is expected to consolidate vs Japanese Yen (JPY) between 149.40 and 150.50. In the longer run, scope for USD to rise further, but it may find the 151.00/151.30 resistance zone difficult to break, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Scope for USD to rise further
24-HOUR VIEW: "USD soared to 150.94 yesterday, pulling back sharply to close lower by 0.52% at 149.90. The pullback in overbought conditions and slowing momentum suggests USD has likely moved into a consolidation phase. Today, we expect USD to trade between 149.40 and 150.50."
1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "After rising sharply for three straight days, USD pulled back yesterday and closed lower by 0.52% at 149.90. Despite the pullback, there is scope for USD to rise further. However, USD may find the 151.00/151.30 resistance zone difficult to break. The probability of USD rising further will remain intact as long as 149.00 (‘strong support’ level) is not breached. Meanwhile, overbought short-term conditions could lead to a couple of days of consolidation."
13:03 Gold has rallied more than 16% this year – ING
In precious metals, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) added 23 tonnes of Gold in the last trading session, the biggest one-day increase since 2022, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note.
In precious metals, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) added 23 tonnes of Gold in the last trading session, the biggest one-day increase since 2022, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note.
Trump’s unpredictable trade policy is the key driver for Gold
"Over the first quarter of 2025, Gold-backed ETFs have seen net inflows of around 155 tonnes so far, lifting the total to the highest since September 2023. If this trend is sustained, it will help support prices."
"There’s still room for further additions given the current total remains shy of the peak hit in 2020. Gold-backed ETFs saw outflows over the last few years. Global holdings in Gold ETFs were effectively flat in the fourth quarter and ended the year very close to where they started it even as Gold prices surged 27%."
"Gold has rallied more than 16% this year as escalating trade actions bolstered safe-haven buying. US President Trump’s unpredictable trade policy is the key driver for Gold. We see uncertainty over trade and tariffs continuing to buoy Gold prices."
13:00 NZD/USD: Likely to continue to trade in a range – UOB Group
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is likely to continue to trade in a range, probably between 0.5715 and 0.5755.
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is likely to continue to trade in a range, probably between 0.5715 and 0.5755. In the longer run, NZD is likely to edge lower toward the major support zone of 0.5650/0.5670, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
NZD has a chance of edging lower toward 0.5650/0.5670
24-HOUR VIEW: "NZD traded in a 0.5713/0.5751 range yesterday, closing largely unchanged at 0.5734 (+0.08%). Momentum indicators are mostly flat, and NZD is likely to continue to trade in a range today, probably between 0.5715 and 0.5755."
1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "The sharp pullback in NZD last week has resulted in an increase in momentum, albeit not much. From here, NZD is likely to edge lower toward the major support zone between 0.5650 and 0.5670. Currently, the likelihood of NZD breaking this support zone is not high. The downside bias will remain intact provided that NZD remains below 0.5770."
13:00 United States MBA Mortgage Applications increased to -2% in March 21 from previous -6.2%
United States MBA Mortgage Applications increased to -2% in March 21 from previous -6.2%
12:52 Tariff concerns drive Copper to record highs – ING
Copper futures on Comex surged to a record high, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note.
Copper futures on Comex surged to a record high, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note.
Copper prices benefited from the front-running of tariffs
"That pushed the London Metal Exchange (LME) contract above the $10,000/t level, as prices benefited from the front-running of tariffs. Last month, President Trump instructed the US Commerce Department to investigate Copper import tariffs on national security grounds. Copper prices in New York are up by more than 28% this year, creating a disconnect between prices in the US and the global benchmark set on the LME."
"The arbitrage between Comex and LME reached all-time highs of more than $1,400/t yesterday. This creates incentives for traders to shift metal to the US to front-run any potential tariffs. There’s a further upside risk for Copper prices in New York if tariffs are implemented. The investigation includes raw mined Copper, Copper concentrates, Copper alloys, scrap Copper and derivative Copper products."
"It may take months, allowing more metal to be shipped to the US before tariffs are imposed. However, there are more recent reports that suggest the tariffs could be introduced within weeks. The US Copper rush could leave the rest of the world tight on Copper if demand picks up more quickly than expected."
12:49 GBP/USD: Defense of the 1.2810/1.2780 is crucial for persistence in up move – Societe Generale
GBP/USD recently approached last November high of 1.3045, which is an interim hurdle, Societe Generale's FX analysts report.
GBP/USD recently approached last November high of 1.3045, which is an interim hurdle, Societe Generale's FX analysts report.
MACD dips below its trigger line
"A brief pullback has materialized. Daily MACD has dipped below its trigger line highlighting receding upward momentum. This is not a reversal signal but denotes possibility of a pause. The 200-DMA at 1.2810/1.2780 is a short-term support. Defense of this zone is crucial for persistence in up move."
12:48 Germany 30-y Bond Auction rose from previous 3.04% to 3.11%
Germany 30-y Bond Auction rose from previous 3.04% to 3.11%
12:32 USD/CAD Price Forecast: Slides for third straight trading day
The USD/CAD pair extends its downside move for the third day in a row on Wednesday and slides to near 1.4250.
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Canadian Dollar PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Canadian Dollar (CAD) against listed major currencies today. Canadian Dollar was the strongest against the British Pound. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.03% 0.30% 0.15% -0.20% -0.39% -0.48% 0.10% EUR 0.03% 0.33% 0.15% -0.17% -0.35% -0.45% 0.12% GBP -0.30% -0.33% -0.14% -0.49% -0.67% -0.78% -0.17% JPY -0.15% -0.15% 0.14% -0.34% -0.55% -0.63% -0.04% CAD 0.20% 0.17% 0.49% 0.34% -0.16% -0.28% 0.32% AUD 0.39% 0.35% 0.67% 0.55% 0.16% -0.10% 0.50% NZD 0.48% 0.45% 0.78% 0.63% 0.28% 0.10% 0.59% CHF -0.10% -0.12% 0.17% 0.04% -0.32% -0.50% -0.59%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Canadian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CAD (base)/USD (quote).
The CAD rises as investors hope that the Bank of Canada (BoC) could adopt a neutral monetary policy stance after remaining significantly dovish since June 2024. These expectations have stemmed from February’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which showed that inflation accelerated at a faster-than-expected pace.
However, the faith of the Loonie is tied to United States (US) President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda. Trump is poised to announce a slew of tariffs for his trading partners on April 2.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, struggles to break above the immediate resistance of 104.50, which is the highest level in almost three weeks. Going forward, investors will focus on the US Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for February, which will be released on Friday. The inflation data will influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook.
USD/CAD holds above the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is around 1.4226, suggesting that the overall trend is bullish.
The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the 40.00-60.00 range, indicating a sideways trend.
Going forward, an upside move would emerge above the March 10 high of 1.4470, which will open the door toward the psychological resistance of 1.4500 and the January 30 high of 1.4595.
On the contrary, a breakdown below the February 14 low of 1.4151 by the pair would expose it to the December 9 low of 1.4094, followed by the December 6 low of 1.4020.
USD/CAD daily chart
Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar?
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar?
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar?
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar?
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar?
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
12:23 Oil: Russia-Ukraine maritime ceasefire is upon us – ING
Oil prices slid after Russia and Ukraine agreed to a maritime ceasefire.
Oil prices slid after Russia and Ukraine agreed to a maritime ceasefire. The move, though, was short-lived with crude oil prices trading higher in early morning trading today, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note.
Plenty of supply risks hanging over the market
"This renewed strength comes as Russia insists that some conditions for the ceasefire are met before committing. They include lifting some sanctions on Russian banks and companies involved in the trade of agricultural products. In addition, any increase in oil supply could be limited, as Russia diverted oil flows to other markets following Western sanctions, so having little impact on supply."
"It's not entirely clear when the ceasefire would come into effect. That would depend on if and when Russia’s demands are met. Finally, there are still plenty of supply risks hanging over the market in the form of sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, which could push the global oil market into deficit."
"Numbers overnight from the American Petroleum Institute were bullish, with inventory draws across the board last week. US crude oil inventories fell by 4.6m barrels, which was very different from the almost 2m barrel increase the market expected. Cushing crude oil stocks fell by 600k barrels, while gasoline and distillate stocks declining by 3.3m barrels and 1.3m barrels, respectively."
12:20 ECB’s Villeroy: Increase in US tariffs in Q2 to have limited impact on European inflation
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker and Bank of France head Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Wednesday that a 25 percentage point increase in the US tariffs in the second quarter could have limited impact on European inflation but added that they could still reduce the Eurozone Gross Domesti
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European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker and Bank of France head Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Wednesday that a 25 percentage point increase in the US tariffs in the second quarter could have limited impact on European inflation but added that they could still reduce the Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth by 0.3% in a full year, per Reuters.Key takeaways"US President Donald Trump is destabilizing the multilateral system, increasing long-term risks for financial order and the climate.""In the short term, Trump's lose-lose strategy is harming the US as the Fed's downgrade of its forecasts show."Market reactionEUR/USD showed no immediate reaction to these comments and was last seen trading virtually unchanged on the day at 1.0795. ECB FAQs What is the ECB and how does it influence the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region.
The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Euro? In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro.
QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Euro? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
12:19 GBP: Chancellor Reeves presents the Spring Statement today– Danske Bank
EUR/GBP continues its steady decline lower after the sharp move higher at the beginning of March, Danske Bank's FX analyst Jesper Fjärstedt reports.
EUR/GBP continues its steady decline lower after the sharp move higher at the beginning of March, Danske Bank's FX analyst Jesper Fjärstedt reports.
EUR/GBP continues its steady decline
"The fundamental shift in German fiscal policy has the been the primary driver. PMI data provided a lending hand highlighting the growth pickup in the UK economy. It is an action-packed day in the UK today."
"In the afternoon, Chancellor Reeves will present the Spring Statement where the Labour government faces some tough choices in meeting its fiscal objective while aiming to improve the UK economy's growth prospects."
"We highlight the topside risk to EUR/GBP on budget news while we maintain our strategic bearish profile for the cross."
11:56 EUR/USD halts recent decline as US Dollar stabilizes
EUR/USD strives to gain ground after a five-day losing streak near 1.0800 during European trading hours on Wednesday.
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On Monday, President Trump said at the White House that all impending levies will not be imposed as he may give a "lot of countries" breaks on tariffs. It seems that various leaders of US trading partners have managed to negotiate deals with Trump. Though a Trump-led trade war is widely anticipated to result in an economic slowdown globally, a war with fewer nations will limit the scope of economic turmoil.
Still, the confidence of US consumers is declining as Trump’s tariffs will lead to a significant decline in households’ purchasing power. On Tuesday, the Conference Board reported a sharp decline in the Consumer Confidence data for March, a leading sentiment indicator that anticipates consumer behaviour. The sentiment data came in at 92.9, significantly lower than the 100.1 seen in February.
Going forward, the major trigger for the US Dollar will be the US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) data for February, which will be released on Friday. Economists expect the US core PCE inflation, which is the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge, to have grown at a faster pace of 2.7% year-on-year, compared to the 2.6% increase seen in January.
In last week's policy meeting, the Fed revised its forecast for the core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) for this year to 2.8%, up from the 2.5% projected in the December meeting.
Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD trades with caution amid firm ECB dovish bets EUR/USD trades cautiously as the outlook of the Euro (EUR) is uncertain amid growing expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) would cut interest rates again. The Eurozone economy is expected to face significant downside economic risks after the imposition of reciprocal tariffs by US President Trump. Trump had signaled plenty of times that he will impose tariffs on the Eurozone for not buying enough American goods. Such a scenario will be negative for the old continent. Historically, economies move to strengthen their domestic economy by lowering interest rates when external conditions are not conducive. The German economy has already shown its support to strengthen the economy by pumping more Euros into circulation. Last week, German leaders voted to stretch the borrowing limit to boost defense spending and the creation of an infrastructure fund worth 500 billion Euros. ECB President Christine Lagarde has also dialled back fears of persistent inflationary pressures due to a potential US-Eurozone trade war. Lagarde said last week that the inflationary impact of the trade war is temporary as the effect would “ease in the medium term” due to “lower economic activity dampening inflationary pressures”. On Tuesday, ECB Governing Council member and Bank of France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau said that there is still room to “lower interest rates further”, and the 2.5% Deposit Facility Rate could “fall to 2% by the end of the summer”.
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD slips below 1.0800
EUR/USD extended its correction from the five-month high of 1.0955 to near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 1.0760. However, the long-term outlook of the major currency pair is still bullish as it holds above the 200-day EMA, which oscillates around 1.0667.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) cools down below 60.00, suggesting that the bullish momentum is over, but the upside bias is intact.
Looking down, the December 6 high of 1.0630 will act as the major support zone for the pair. Conversely, the psychological level of 1.1000 will be the key barrier for the Euro bulls.
Euro FAQs What is the Euro?
The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro?
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro?
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro?
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro?
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
11:54 AUD/USD: Major resistance at 0.6355 is unlikely to come into view – UOB Group
Australian Dollar (AUD) could retest the 0.6325 level; the major resistance at 0.6355 is unlikely to come into view.
Australian Dollar (AUD) could retest the 0.6325 level; the major resistance at 0.6355 is unlikely to come into view. In the longer run, AUD appears range-bound for now, likely between 0.6240 and 0.6355, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
AUD appears range-bound for now
24-HOUR VIEW: "Yesterday, AUD rose to 0.6325 before pulling back quickly to close at 0.6304 (+0.28%). The advance has resulted in a slight increase in upward momentum, but not enough to indicate a sustained rise. However, provided that AUD hold above 0.6270 (minor support at 0.6285), it could retest the 0.6325 level. The major resistance at 0.6355 Is unlikely to come into view.
1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "While the decline in AUD last week was relatively pronounced, there has been no significant increase in downward momentum. AUD appears range-bound for now, likely between 0.6240 and 0.6355. Looking ahead, even if AUD breaks out of this range, further movement is likely to face significant support at 0.6190 or resistance at 0.6390."
11:51 AUD: Inflation below expectations – Commerzbank
According to the monthly price index, the rate of inflation in Australia fell again in February.
According to the monthly price index, the rate of inflation in Australia fell again in February. Unlike the quarterly inflation figures, only some of the prices in Australia are updated on a monthly basis. However, the monthly figures have proven to be a reliable indicator of the 'full' inflation figures over the years, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes.
Economic environment in Australia is more supportive of another rate cut
"At 2.4 per cent, the headline rate was slightly below the previous month's 2.5 per cent and also below most analysts' expectations of no change. This suggests that inflation is settling into the central bank's target range of 2-3 per cent. However, some weaknesses remain. In particular, the situation in the services sector remains worrying, where inflation is still quite high at 3.6 per cent and has been slow to converge to the central bank's target."
"However, even here there are signs of improvement, albeit slowly. Monthly rates of change in financial services have recently moderated somewhat, and the fact that house prices are not rising quite as fast, and have even fallen slightly recently, suggests that price pressures in the rental market, where inflation rates are still high, are also easing."
"When the Reserve Bank of Australia holds its next policy meeting next week, it will have to decide how to deal with this mixed picture. While global uncertainties certainly call for caution, in my view the economic environment in Australia is more supportive of another rate cut. The inflation figures give the green light."
11:34 GBP/USD: No increase in either downward or upward momentum – UOB Group
There has been no increase in either downward or upward momentum; Pound Sterling (GBP) is expected to trade in a 1.2920/1.2980 range.
There has been no increase in either downward or upward momentum; Pound Sterling (GBP) is expected to trade in a 1.2920/1.2980 range. In the longer run, GBP is likely to consolidate between 1.2850 and 1.3015, albeit with a mild downward bias, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
GBP is likely to consolidate between 1.2850 and 1.3015
24-HOUR VIEW: "GBP traded between 1.2904 and 1.2966 yesterday, closing slightly higher by 0.17% at 1.2944. There has been no increase in either downward or upward momentum. Today, we expect GBP to trade in a range, most likely between 1.2920 and 1.2980."
1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "GBP eased off after struggling to hold above 1.3015 last week. It appears to have entered a consolidation phase, likely trading between 1.2850 and 1.3015 for now, albeit with a mild downward bias."
11:33 Gold bid with Copper rising to record high on tariff threat
Gold’s price (XAU/USD) is heading to $3,020 at the time of writing on Wednesday and has turned this week’s performance positive after its initial move lower on Monday.
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Meanwhile, there is also a headline risk on Ukraine, where a Black Sea ceasefire deal is on the table. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy was quick to support the breakthrough and said his country was ready to adhere to it effective immediately. The Kremlin was quick to issue additional demands that would need to be met before the ceasefire deal in the Black Sea could become valid, with the request to see sanctions on banks and companies involved in agricultural exports being halted, Bloomberg reports.Daily digest market movers: Sector movesThe primary sticking point in talks for an acquisition of Australian miner Gold Road Resources by South Africa's Gold Fields was the price, according to the Australian company's chief executive. In an interview on Wednesday, Gold Road Resources CEO Duncan Gibbs said the company remains open to further talks with Gold Fields but noted that most of its shareholders do not support a takeover at the price its partner proposed, Dow Jones reports. Another reason mentioned for Gold being bought this Wednesday is because the US Conference Board Consumer Confidence dropped to the lowest level in four years in March on concerns over escalating trade wars and higher prices, Bloomberg reports. The CME Fedwatch Tool sees the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy rate unchanged in its May meeting by 87.1%. Chances for a rate cut in June are currently at 63.2%. Technical Analysis: Not there yet thoughGold sees how the surge in Copper prices pulls up the whole precious metals complex higher. This is a good set off from the easing of the reciprocal tariffs fears seen on Monday. Expect a test of this week’s high, near $3,036, before the all-time high at $3,057 comes into play.
On the upside, the daily R1 resistance comes in at $3,034 and coincides with this week’s high for now. Further up, the R2 resistance at $3,049 roughly coincides with Friday’s high. This means this level is a heavy barrier before pointing to the current all-time high of $3,057.
On the downside, the intraday S1 support stands at $3,006, preceding the $3,000 mark, which can be perceived as a bullish sign. That means the $3,000 mark is no longer exposed and has some circuit breaking element beforehand to slow down any downmoves. Further down, the S2 support comes in at $2,992.
XAU/USD: Daily Chart
Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold?
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold?
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets?
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on?
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
11:32 BoJ’s Koeda: We are seeing signs of progress on rising prices alongside wage hikes
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) new board member Junko Koeda said on Wednesday, “we are seeing signs of progress on rising prices alongside wage hikes.” Additional quotes Various indicators show underlying inflation moving towards 2% inflation sustainably.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) new board member Junko Koeda said on Wednesday, “we are seeing signs of progress on rising prices alongside wage hikes.”
Additional quotes
Various indicators show underlying inflation moving towards 2% inflation sustainably.
Some effects of monetary policy steps appear with a lag.
Want to scrutinize how policy decisions so far could affect the economy.
Neutral rate is an important means in deciding monetary policy.
But need to take into account features of various data, models, and assumptions as well.
I'm not saying the BOJ should rush or not rush in raising interest rates.
Market reaction
USD/JPY is defending gains above 150.00 following these comments, up 0.17% on the day, as of writing.
11:30 Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data.
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Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $33.67 per troy ounce, down 0.19% from the $33.73 it cost on Tuesday.
Silver prices have increased by 16.52% since the beginning of the year. Unit measure Silver Price Today in USD Troy Ounce 33.67 1 Gram 1.08
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 89.72 on Wednesday, up from 89.53 on Tuesday. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 89.72 on Wednesday, up from 89.53 on Tuesday. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
11:28 USD: Holding pattern on the chart – ING
The Dollar Index (DXY) has found some support under 104.00 helped by a little more stability in US asset markets, ING’s FX analysts Chris Turner notes.
The Dollar Index (DXY) has found some support under 104.00 helped by a little more stability in US asset markets, ING’s FX analysts Chris Turner notes.
DXY can trade a tight 104.00-104.50 trading range
"The S&P 500 has retraced about 40% of this year's losses, helped in part by the view that Washington's next round of tariffs due on 2 April could be a little more lenient or selective. Of course, this is a moving target, but no doubt the Administration will be taking keen note of the dip in US consumer confidence and what it could mean for broader growth trends should the US consumer finally decide to save a little more."
"Next week's tariff announcement also needs to be seen in the context of any 'Mar-a-Lago'-type plan for restructuring the global trading system. The key understanding in this plan is that the dollar would initially rally on the back of tariffs to provide protection to the US consumer. This may still be the case if the tariffs are aggressive enough against the EU and China – two of the largest trading blocs running large surpluses with the US."
"In the interim, however, expect the dollar to trade in relatively tight ranges while also finding a little support from Fed-speak, pointing to no rush for the next rate cut. We'd also say that if the US got into any stagflation-like scenario, it would be bullish for the dollar against activity currencies. DXY should trade a tight 104.00-104.50 trading range, with upside risk should a weaker sterling take European currencies lower today."
11:17 Palladium price today: Rare metals down at the start of the European session
Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade with a negative tone at the beginning of Wednesday, according to FXStreet data.
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Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade with a negative tone at the beginning of Wednesday, according to FXStreet data. Palladium (XPD) changes hands at $955.45 a troy ounce, with the XPD/USD pair easing from its previous close at $961.48. In the meantime, Platinum (XPT) trades at $976.71 against the United States Dollar (USD) early in the European session, also under pressure after the XPT/USD pair settled at $980.45 at the previous close.
Palladium FAQs Why do people buy Palladium?
Palladium is a rare and valuable precious metal with strong industrial demand, particularly in the automotive sector. It is widely used in catalytic converters to reduce vehicle emissions, making it essential for global environmental regulations. Investors also see palladium as a store of value, similar to gold and silver, and a potential hedge against inflation. Given its supply constraints and high demand, palladium often attracts traders looking for price volatility and profit opportunities. What is Palladium in trading?
In trading, palladium (XPD/USD) is considered both an industrial and a precious metal. It is traded on major commodity exchanges like the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and the London Platinum and Palladium Market (LPPM). Traders speculate on palladium prices through futures contracts, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and spot markets. Since palladium supply is concentrated in a few countries, particularly Russia and South Africa, geopolitical and mining disruptions can lead to significant price swings, making it an attractive asset for short-term traders and long-term investors alike. Is Palladium more expensive than Gold?
Palladium has historically been less expensive than gold, but in recent years, it has traded at a premium due to rising demand and tight supply. Prices fluctuate based on market conditions, but palladium has, at times, outperformed gold due to its critical role in the automotive industry. However, as markets shift and industrial demand changes, the price relationship between the two metals can vary. What does the price of Palladium depend on?
Palladium prices are influenced by several factors, including industrial demand, supply constraints, and macroeconomic conditions. The automotive industry is the biggest driver of demand, as stricter emissions regulations increase the need for palladium-based catalytic converters. Supply is heavily dependent on mining output from Russia and South Africa, making the metal vulnerable to geopolitical risks and supply chain disruptions. Additionally, broader market trends, such as the strength of the US dollar, interest rates, and economic growth, can impact palladium prices, as they do with other precious metals. Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) prices mentioned above are based on the FXStreet data feed for Contracts for Differences (CFDs). (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
11:16 Crude oil price today: WTI price bullish at European opening
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Wednesday, early in the European session.
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West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Wednesday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $69.17 per barrel, up from Tuesday’s close at $69.07. Brent Oil Exchange Rate (Brent crude) is also up, advancing from the $72.59 price posted on Tuesday, and trading at $72.81.
WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil?
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil?
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil?
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia. Disclaimer: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent oil prices mentioned above are based on FXStreet data feed for Contracts for Differences (CFDs). (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
11:16 AUD/JPY rises to near 95.00 as Australian Dollar advances due to rising Copper prices
AUD/JPY rebounded from previous session losses, trading around 94.90 during European hours on Wednesday.
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Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump stated in a Newsmax interview on Wednesday that he intends to impose tariffs on copper imports within weeks. Although the Commerce Department originally had until November 2025 to investigate and decide on potential tariffs, recent developments suggest they may be implemented much sooner.
However, the AUD slipped against its peers following the release of February’s Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI), which rose 2.4% year-over-year—slightly below both January’s 2.5% increase and market expectations of 2.5%.
The AUD/JPY cross also climbed as the Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened on Wednesday. Investors braced for the impact of upcoming US reciprocal tariffs, which could affect key Japanese exports. Additionally, a rebound in risk assets, including equities and commodities, reduced demand for the safe-haven JPY.
Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda told parliament that the central bank would continue raising interest rates if economic conditions align with projections. He noted that economic growth has surpassed expectations, with a positive cycle of rising incomes fueling consumer spending.
Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs?
Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs?
Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad?
There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan?
During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
11:08 DXY: On Mar-a-Lago Accord – the new US economic policy – Commerzbank
There has been a lot of talk in the public discussion lately about the conceptual construct of a 'Mar-a-Lago Accord' – so much so that it is no longer really clear what it is about.
There has been a lot of talk in the public discussion lately about the conceptual construct of a 'Mar-a-Lago Accord' – so much so that it is no longer really clear what it is about. But, before discussing this, one must first define what they mean. To do this, it is helpful to consult a strategy paper by Stephen Miran, Chair of the US President's Council of Economic Advisers, Commerzbank's FX analyst Ulrich Leuchtmann notes.
US must not give away security and access to its domestic market for free
"His argument is a variant of the new neorealist thinking in US foreign policy: the US is being taken to the cleaners because it is tied into alliance, world economic and financial systems that put it at a disadvantage. Specifically, the USA would provide military security for its allies and give the world access to its domestic market without getting anything in return. On the contrary, the de- industrialization of the USA and the high valuation of the US currency, which represents an economic burden, would put the USA at a disadvantage."
"The US should no longer give away security and access to its domestic market for free, but should charge a price for it. This is the US government's foreign policy and economic policy concept. With the following aspects: Alliances are seen as a hindrance, that is the 'neorealist' dimension of the new US policy; Instead, power projection is preferred, in particular import tariffs and the threat of them."
"What are the objectives of this US policy? A weakening of the US Dollar, a debt restructuring and thus a debt relief for the US treasury, a reduction of the US trade deficit and, as a result, a re-industrialization of the US economy."
11:00 Switzerland ZEW Survey – Expectations dipped from previous 3.4 to -10.7 in March
Switzerland ZEW Survey – Expectations dipped from previous 3.4 to -10.7 in March
10:43 NZD/USD Price Forecast: Rises above 0.5700, nine-day EMA amid renewed bullish bias
NZD/USD continues its upward momentum for the second consecutive day, hovering around 0.5750 during European trading hours on Wednesday.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}NZD/USD attempts to surpass the nine-day EMA, signaling a potential boost in short-term price momentum.The 14-day RSI has risen above the 50 mark, reviving a bullish outlook.Immediate support is seen at the nine-day EMA at 0.5748, followed by the 50-day EMA at 0.5719.NZD/USD continues its upward momentum for the second consecutive day, hovering around 0.5750 during European trading hours on Wednesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates a dominant bullish bias, with the pair maintaining its position within an ascending channel. Furthermore, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed back above the 50 mark, reinforcing a renewed bullish outlook.
Additionally, the NZD/USD pair is making an effort to break above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating the potential for strengthening short-term price momentum. The nine-day EMA holding above the 50-day EMA further supports the broader bullish trend, signaling a continued recovery.
On the upside, a decisive break above the nine-day EMA could further strengthen short-term momentum, potentially driving NZD/USD toward the three-month high of 0.5832, last reached on March 18. Beyond this level, additional resistance is seen near the upper boundary of the ascending channel, around 0.5880.
The nine-day EMA at 0.5748 serves as immediate support, followed by the 50-day EMA at 0.5719. A break below this level could weaken medium-term momentum, increasing downside pressure on the NZD/USD pair to test the psychological support at 0.5700, with the lower boundary of the ascending channel near 0.5660 as the next key level. A breakdown below this channel could reinforce the bearish bias, potentially pushing the pair toward the monthly low of 0.5593, recorded on March 3.
NZD/USD: Daily Chart
New Zealand Dollar PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the British Pound. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.00% 0.44% 0.21% -0.18% -0.23% -0.33% 0.10% EUR -0.00% 0.43% 0.18% -0.18% -0.22% -0.33% 0.09% GBP -0.44% -0.43% -0.23% -0.61% -0.65% -0.77% -0.30% JPY -0.21% -0.18% 0.23% -0.38% -0.45% -0.54% -0.09% CAD 0.18% 0.18% 0.61% 0.38% -0.02% -0.16% 0.31% AUD 0.23% 0.22% 0.65% 0.45% 0.02% -0.11% 0.34% NZD 0.33% 0.33% 0.77% 0.54% 0.16% 0.11% 0.45% CHF -0.10% -0.09% 0.30% 0.09% -0.31% -0.34% -0.45%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
10:33 GBP: Tighter fiscal, looser monetary policy to hit sterling – ING
UK Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, delivers her 30-minute Spring Statement at 13CET.
UK Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, delivers her 30-minute Spring Statement at 13CET. The crux of the story is how she will likely cut spending for the UK to meet its fiscal rule. Widely trailed in the press is the need to rein in about £15bn of spending through welfare and other departmental spending cuts, ING’s FX analysts Chris Turner notes.
GBP/USD looks vulnerable to 1.2860 and possibly 1.2800 today
"Where the jeopardy lies for the Chancellor is with the bond market. Should spending cuts be far too back-loaded to be credible, or if the government sails too close to the wind with its gilt issuance plans, we could see a repeat of January's gilt and sterling sell-off."
"For reference, consensus in the bond market is that gilt supply for FY25/26 will be around £302/304bn, with some estimating it could be as wide as £320bn. With UK 10-year gilt yields already at 3.75% and underperforming US Treasuries, any £320bn gilt issuance figure (likely announced around 1330CET) would hit sterling."
"At the same time, it looks like the market is under-pricing this year's Bank of England easing cycle. The market prices just 40bp of easing, while we see a risk of three more 25bp cuts. The narrative of tighter fiscal and looser monetary policy should be sterling negative. GBP/USD looks vulnerable to 1.2860 and possibly 1.2800 today."
10:23 EUR: Tariff risks look under-priced – ING
After a violent first half of the month, the EUR/USD market is calming down.
After a violent first half of the month, the EUR/USD market is calming down. One-month traded volatility has fallen to 7% from 9%, and one week has fallen to below 8% from above 11%, ING’s FX analysts Chris Turner notes.
EUR/USD can be dragged to 1.0730 in the near term
"Stability in US asset markets has certainly helped, as has a rethink about how quickly new fiscal stimulus or defence spending stands to lift eurozone growth. Notably, during all this month's volatility, the market still prices the landing rate for the ECB easing cycle in the 1.75-2.00% zone – i.e. there has not been a substantial upward revision here."
"We do, however, think that financial markets are under-pricing the risk to the euro from next week's tariff news. The EU (led by Germany) runs a large trade surplus with the US and will likely, alongside China, be at the forefront of Washington's reset on global trade. We've got a 1.05 forecast for EUR/USD by the end of the second quarter on the back of the tariff story."
"EUR/USD has support at 1.0765/70 and could be dragged to 1.0730 if the pound weakens."
10:18 EUR/USD has a chance to pull back further toward 1.0725 – UOB Group
Euro (EUR) is likely to trade in a 1.0765/1.0820 range. In the longer run, EUR could pull back further; it does not appear to have enough momentum to break clearly below 1.0725, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Euro (EUR) is likely to trade in a 1.0765/1.0820 range. In the longer run, EUR could pull back further; it does not appear to have enough momentum to break clearly below 1.0725, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
EUR is likely to trade in a 1.0765/1.0820 range
24-HOUR VIEW: "Yesterday, EUR traded within a 1.0774/1.0830 range, closing largely unchanged (-0.08%) at 1.0791. While the price action is likely part of a consolidation phase, the soft underlying tone suggests EUR is likely to trade in a lower range of 1.0765/1.0820 range today."
1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "While the current pullback from last week’s high of 1.0954 has not stabilised, downward momentum is not strong. However, as long as EUR remains below 1.0860, EUR could pull back further toward 1.0725. Currently, it does not appear to have enough momentum to break clearly below this support level."
10:14 WTI inches lower to near $69.00 following US agreements with Ukraine, Russia
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude Oil price paused its two-day winning streak, trading around $69.00 per barrel during early European hours on Wednesday.
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The US-Russia agreement extends further, with Washington committing to efforts aimed at easing international sanctions on Russian agricultural and fertilizer exports—a long-standing demand from Moscow. However, the Kremlin stated that the Black Sea agreements would not take effect unless connections between certain Russian banks and the international financial system were restored.
Despite this, Oil prices found support amid supply concerns after US President Donald Trump signed an order imposing 25% tariffs on imports from countries purchasing Venezuelan Oil, potentially disrupting flows to major refiners in China, India, and Spain.
Also, Chevron has begun scaling back its tanker fleet in Venezuela, according to shipping data and a document reviewed on Tuesday. However, the Trump administration also extended Chevron’s deadline to exit Venezuela until May 27, with analysts estimating its withdrawal could reduce production by 200,000 barrels per day (bpd).
Additional support for Oil prices came from American Petroleum Institute (API) Weekly Crude Oil Stock data, which showed a significant 4.6-million-barrel decline in US crude inventories last week—well above market expectations of a 2.5-million-barrel drop. This suggests strong fuel demand in the world's largest economy.
WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil?
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil?
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil?
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
10:00 Spain Gross Domestic Product (YoY) came in at 3.4% below forecasts (3.5%) in 4Q
Spain Gross Domestic Product (YoY) came in at 3.4% below forecasts (3.5%) in 4Q
10:00 Spain Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) in line with forecasts (0.8%) in 4Q
Spain Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) in line with forecasts (0.8%) in 4Q
09:57 Pound Sterling declines as UK inflation cools down, Spring Statement eyed
The Pound Sterling (GBP) faces selling pressure against its major peers on Wednesday.
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Headline CPI increased 2.8% year-over-year (YoY) compared to estimates of 2.9% and the 3.0% increase seen in January. In the same period, the core CPI – which excludes volatile items – rose by 3.5%, against expectations of 3.6% and the former release of 3.7%. Month-on-month headline CPI grew 0.4% after deflating by 0.1% in January, missing estimates of 0.5%.
Inflation in the services sector, which is closely tracked by Bank of England (BoE) officials, rose at a steady pace of 5%. Technically, soft inflation data prompts traders to raise bets supporting the BoE to ease the monetary policy. However, sticky UK service inflation data could limit traders from going all-in for an interest rate cut by the BoE in the May policy meeting.
Investors brace for more volatility in the British currency as UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves is scheduled to deliver the Spring Statement in the Commons at around 12:30 GMT. Reeves is expected to cut welfare spending as she pledged to avoid tax raises and committed to relying on foreign financing for funding investments only. She is also expected to announce a £2.2bn increase in defence spending amid uncertainty surrounding the Ukraine war, according to BBC News.
The scenario of lower fiscal spending measures would be unfavorable for the Pound Sterling as lesser government spending results in moderate economic growth, which keeps inflationary pressures capped.
Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling weakens against US Dollar The Pound Sterling falls to near 1.2900 against the US Dollar (USD) in Wednesday’s European session. The GBP/USD pair drops as the US Dollar stabilizes despite uncertainty over how potential tariffs by President Donald Trump on April 2 will shape the United States (US) economic outlook. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, ticks higher to near 104.40. Market participants expect that President Trump’s tariff agenda can expose the US economy to a recession, along with a resurgence in inflationary pressures in the near term. On Monday, Trump reiterated threats to unveil tariffs on April 2 but teased that not all impending tariffs will be imposed as he may give a "lot of countries" breaks on tariffs. Meanwhile, investors seek fresh cues about the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook for the remaining year. Regarding this, investors will focus on the US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) data for February, which will be released on Friday. The US core PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, is estimated to have grown 2.7% year-on-year, compared to the 2.6% increase seen in January. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the Fed is certain to keep interest rates in the current range of 4.25%-4.50% in the May policy meeting, but there is a 65% chance that interest rates will be lower in June.
Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling strives to hold 1.2900
The Pound Sterling trades slightly lower to near 1.2900 against the US Dollar on Wednesday. The GBP/USD pair struggles to hold the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, plotted from the late-September high to mid-January low, at 1.2930.
The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.2875 is expected to act as a major support zone for the Pound Sterling bulls.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) cools down to near 60.00 after turning overbought above 70.00. Should a fresh bullish momentum come into action if the RSI resumes the upside journey after holding above 60.00.
Looking down, the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1.2765 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1.2610 will act as key support zones for the pair. On the upside, the October 15 high of 1.3100 will act as a key resistance zone.
Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling?
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling?
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound?
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound?
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
09:45 France Consumer Confidence registered at 92, below expectations (94) in March
France Consumer Confidence registered at 92, below expectations (94) in March
09:32 Forex Today: US Dollar holds ground ahead of key US data
Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, March 26: The US Dollar (USD) stays resilient against its major rivals early Wednesday, with the USD Index holding steady above 104.00 after snapping a four-day winning streak on Tuesday.
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Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, March 26:
The US Dollar (USD) stays resilient against its major rivals early Wednesday, with the USD Index holding steady above 104.00 after snapping a four-day winning streak on Tuesday. The US economic calendar will feature Durable Goods Orders data for December. Additionally, several Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers will be delivering speeches in the second half of the day.
US Dollar PRICE This week
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.30% 0.03% 0.77% -0.72% -0.74% -0.34% 0.09% EUR -0.30% -0.39% -0.03% -0.98% -1.06% -0.59% -0.18% GBP -0.03% 0.39% 0.76% -1.22% -0.70% -0.20% 0.10% JPY -0.77% 0.03% -0.76% -1.48% -1.53% -1.09% -0.70% CAD 0.72% 0.98% 1.22% 1.48% 0.03% 0.38% 0.81% AUD 0.74% 1.06% 0.70% 1.53% -0.03% 0.48% 0.89% NZD 0.34% 0.59% 0.20% 1.09% -0.38% -0.48% 0.49% CHF -0.09% 0.18% -0.10% 0.70% -0.81% -0.89% -0.49%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The UK's Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported early Wednesday that annual inflation, as measured by the change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), softened to 2.8% in February from 3% in January, coming in below the market expectation of 2.9%. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 3.5% in this period, compared to the 3.7% increase recorded in January. On a monthly basis, the CPI rose 0.4% after falling 0.1% previously. GBP/USD struggles to gain traction following these data and trades in negative territory below 1.2950. Later in the day, the Chancellor of the Exchequer will deliver the UK 2025 Spring Statement in the House of Commons.
The disappointing Consumer Confidence data from the US made it difficult for the USD to outperform its rivals on Tuesday. In the meantime, Wall Street's main indexes registered small gains on the day. Early Wednesday, US stock index futures trade marginally lower on the day, reflecting a cautious market mood. EUR/USD closed the fifth consecutive trading day in negative territory on Tuesday. The pair manages to limit its losses but stays below 1.0800 in the European morning on Wednesday.
US President Donald Trump said in a Newsmax interview on Wednesday that he plans to implement copper import tariffs within weeks. Copper prices shot up to a new all-time-high after this development. In turn, AUD/USD gains traction and trades above 0.6300 in the European morning.USD/JPY reversed its direction after a three-day climb and lost 0.5% on Tuesday. The pair stages a rebound and trades near 150.50 in the early European session.
After stabilizing above $3,000 on Tuesday, Gold registered small daily gains. XAU/USD struggles to gather bullish momentum but holds comfortably above $3,020 on Wednesday.
Inflation FAQs What is inflation?
Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%. What is the Consumer Price Index (CPI)?
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls. What is the impact of inflation on foreign exchange?
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money. How does inflation influence the price of Gold?
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
09:28 EUR/GBP rises to near 0.8350 after weak UK CPI data
The EUR/GBP pair regained ground on Wednesday following the release of disappointing Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the United Kingdom (UK).
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In February, the UK’s CPI rose 2.8% year-over-year, slowing from January’s 3.0% increase and missing market expectations of 2.9%. Despite the decline, inflation remains above the Bank of England’s (BoE) 2% target. Meanwhile, core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, increased by 3.5% YoY, easing from January’s 3.7% and coming in below the forecasted 3.6%.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) faced additional pressure after the BoE left interest rates unchanged at 4.5% last week. Eight of the nine Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members voted to maintain current borrowing costs, while policymaker Swati Dhingra was the sole supporter of a 25-basis-point (bps) rate cut. Economists had anticipated that two officials might favor a reduction.
However, EUR/GBP’s gains could be capped as the Euro remains under pressure amid expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) could lower interest rates again in April. ECB Governing Council member François Villeroy de Galhau stated on Tuesday that further rate cuts are possible and that the 2.5% deposit rate could drop to 2% by the summer’s end.
Meanwhile, ECB President Christine Lagarde told the European Parliament last week that the inflationary impact of trade tensions driven by US President Donald Trump would be temporary, as weaker economic activity would eventually ease inflationary pressures.
Economic Indicator
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
The United Kingdom (UK) Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly basis, is a measure of consumer price inflation – the rate at which the prices of goods and services bought by households rise or fall – produced to international standards. It is the inflation measure used in the government’s target. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Wed Mar 26, 2025 07:00 Frequency: MonthlyActual: 2.8%Consensus: 2.9%Previous: 3%Source: Office for National Statistics
Why it matters to traders?
The Bank of England is tasked with keeping inflation, as measured by the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) at around 2%, giving the monthly release its importance. An increase in inflation implies a quicker and sooner increase of interest rates or the reduction of bond-buying by the BOE, which means squeezing the supply of pounds. Conversely, a drop in the pace of price rises indicates looser monetary policy. A higher-than-expected result tends to be GBP bullish.
09:16 GBP/JPY holds positive ground near 194.50 after UK inflation data
The GBP/JPY cross trades in positive territory near 194.50 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday.
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Data released by the United Kingdom’s Office for National Statistics on Wednesday showed that the country’s headline CPI rose 2.8% YoY in February, compared to 3.0% in January. This reading came in softer than the 2.9% expected. The Core CPI, which excludes the volatile prices of food and energy, climbed 3.5% YoY in February versus 3.7% prior, below the market consensus of 3.6%.
Meanwhile, the monthly UK CPI inflation rebounded to 0.4% in February from -0.1% in January. Markets expected a 0.5% print. The Pound Sterling faces mild downward pressure in an immediate reaction to the softer UK CPI inflation data.
On the JPY’s front, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said early Wednesday that the Japanese central bank will continue to raise interest rates if economic and price developments move in line with its forecasts. Furthermore, significant wage hikes for the third consecutive year keep alive expectations of further interest rate hikes by the BoJ. This, in turn, might boost the JPY and create a headwind for the GBP/JPY cross. Inflation FAQs What is inflation? Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%. What is the Consumer Price Index (CPI)? The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls. What is the impact of inflation on foreign exchange? Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money. How does inflation influence the price of Gold? Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
Data released by the United Kingdom’s Office for National Statistics on Wednesday showed that the country’s headline CPI rose 2.8% YoY in February, compared to 3.0% in January. This reading came in softer than the 2.9% expected. The Core CPI, which excludes the volatile prices of food and energy, climbed 3.5% YoY in February versus 3.7% prior, below the market consensus of 3.6%.
Meanwhile, the monthly UK CPI inflation rebounded to 0.4% in February from -0.1% in January. Markets expected a 0.5% print. The Pound Sterling faces mild downward pressure in an immediate reaction to the softer UK CPI inflation data.
On the JPY’s front, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said early Wednesday that the Japanese central bank will continue to raise interest rates if economic and price developments move in line with its forecasts. Furthermore, significant wage hikes for the third consecutive year keep alive expectations of further interest rate hikes by the BoJ. This, in turn, might boost the JPY and create a headwind for the GBP/JPY cross. Inflation FAQs What is inflation? Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%. What is the Consumer Price Index (CPI)? The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls. What is the impact of inflation on foreign exchange? Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money. How does inflation influence the price of Gold? Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
09:00 United Kingdom Consumer Price Index (YoY) below forecasts (2.9%) in February: Actual (2.8%)
United Kingdom Consumer Price Index (YoY) below forecasts (2.9%) in February: Actual (2.8%)
09:00 United Kingdom Retail Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.6% below forecasts (0.8%) in February
United Kingdom Retail Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.6% below forecasts (0.8%) in February
09:00 Sweden Trade Balance (MoM) fell from previous 15.1B to 14.4B in February
Sweden Trade Balance (MoM) fell from previous 15.1B to 14.4B in February
09:00 United Kingdom Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) registered at 3.5%, below expectations (3.6%) in February
United Kingdom Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) registered at 3.5%, below expectations (3.6%) in February
09:00 United Kingdom Consumer Price Index (MoM) registered at 0.4%, below expectations (0.5%) in February
United Kingdom Consumer Price Index (MoM) registered at 0.4%, below expectations (0.5%) in February
09:00 United Kingdom Retail Price Index (YoY) below forecasts (3.6%) in February: Actual (3.4%)
United Kingdom Retail Price Index (YoY) below forecasts (3.6%) in February: Actual (3.4%)
08:30 ECB’s Panetta: Must remain pragmatic and data-driven in setting policy rate
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Fabio Panetta said on Wednesday, the central bak “must remain pragmatic and data-driven in setting the policy rate.” Further comments ECB should now focus more on inflation expectations than estimated neutral level in setting rates.
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Fabio Panetta said on Wednesday, the central bak “must remain pragmatic and data-driven in setting the policy rate.”
Further comments
ECB should now focus more on inflation expectations than estimated neutral level in setting rates.
As inflation falls and rates near neutral, uncertainty becomes more of a problem.
Market reaction
At the press time, EUR/USD is trading flat at around 1.0780.
08:08 EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Keeps bullish vibe, first upside target emerges above 163.00
The EUR/JPY cross gathers strength to near 162.35 during the early European session on Wednesday.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/JPY climbs to near 162.35 in Wednesday’s early European session, adding 0.31% on the day. The positive view of the cross prevails above the key 100-day EMA with the bullish RSI indicator. The immediate resistance level emerges at 163.03; the key support level to watch is in the 161.00-160.90 zone. The EUR/JPY cross gathers strength to near 162.35 during the early European session on Wednesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens against the Euro (EUR) amid the generally positive tone around the equity markets. Nonetheless, the growing speculation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue raising interest rates might cap the downside for the JPY.
Technically, the constructive outlook of EUR/JPY remains in place as the cross is well-supported above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. The upward momentum is reinforced by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which stands above the midline near 57.15, displaying bullish momentum in the near term.
The first upside target for the cross emerges at 163.03, the high of March 25. Extended gains could see a rally to 164.20, the high of March 18. The additional upside filter to watch is 164.89, the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band.
On the flip side, the crucial support level for EUR/JPY is located in the 161.00-160.90 region, the psychological level and the 100-day EMA. Sustained trading below the mentioned level could see a drop to the next contention level at 159.12, the low of March 6. The next downside target to watch is 158.15, the low of March 5. EUR/JPY daily chart Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
Technically, the constructive outlook of EUR/JPY remains in place as the cross is well-supported above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. The upward momentum is reinforced by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which stands above the midline near 57.15, displaying bullish momentum in the near term.
The first upside target for the cross emerges at 163.03, the high of March 25. Extended gains could see a rally to 164.20, the high of March 18. The additional upside filter to watch is 164.89, the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band.
On the flip side, the crucial support level for EUR/JPY is located in the 161.00-160.90 region, the psychological level and the 100-day EMA. Sustained trading below the mentioned level could see a drop to the next contention level at 159.12, the low of March 6. The next downside target to watch is 158.15, the low of March 5. EUR/JPY daily chart Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
07:31 Netherlands, The Gross Domestic Product n.s.a (YoY) above forecasts (1.8%) in 4Q: Actual (1.9%)
Netherlands, The Gross Domestic Product n.s.a (YoY) above forecasts (1.8%) in 4Q: Actual (1.9%)
07:23 USD/IDR retakes 16,600 amid US tariff fears, some USD dip-buying
The USD/IDR pair attracts some dip-buyers near the 16,550 area during the Asian session on Wednesday and stalls the previous day's retracement slide from its highest level since the Asian financial crisis in 1998.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}USD/IDR reverses an intraday slide and is underpinned by a combination of factors.The market reaction to the BI intervention on Tuesday turns out to be short-lived.Political instability in Indonesia and a modest USD uptick lend support to spot prices. The USD/IDR pair attracts some dip-buyers near the 16,550 area during the Asian session on Wednesday and stalls the previous day's retracement slide from its highest level since the Asian financial crisis in 1998. Spot prices climb back to the 16,600 level in the last hour, though remain below the daily swing high.
The Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) drew some support from the fact that Bank Indonesia (BI) on Tuesday intervened in the foreign exchange, domestic non-deliverable forwards, and bond markets to restore confidence. Adding to this, an official said this Wednesday that Indonesia's central bank will always monitor markets and intervene to stabilize the currency. The initial reaction, however, turns out to be short-lived amid political instability in Indonesia and unease over President Prabowo Subianto's policies.
This, along with the uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump's trade tariffs and the emergence of some US Dollar (USD) buying, acts as a tailwind for the USD/IDR pair. Trump imposed a secondary tariff on Venezuela and said that any country that buys oil or gas from Venezuela would face a 25% tariff when trading with the US. Moreover, Trump is expected to announce retaliatory tariffs – that would offset levies on US goods and are set to take effect on April 2 – on about 15 major US trading partners.
Meanwhile, the USD regains positive traction and moves back closer to a nearly three-week high touched on Tuesday, though the upside seems limited in the wake of bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will resume its rate-cutting cycle soon. In fact, the US central bank maintained its forecast for two 25 basis points rate cuts by the end of this year and revised its growth outlook downward amid the growing uncertainty over the impact of Trump's aggressive trade policies. This might cap the USD gains and the USD/IDR pair.
US Dollar PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.11% 0.11% 0.45% -0.02% -0.10% -0.23% 0.15% EUR -0.11% -0.01% 0.32% -0.13% -0.20% -0.34% 0.03% GBP -0.11% 0.00% 0.35% -0.12% -0.19% -0.33% 0.07% JPY -0.45% -0.32% -0.35% -0.47% -0.57% -0.68% -0.29% CAD 0.02% 0.13% 0.12% 0.47% -0.04% -0.21% 0.20% AUD 0.10% 0.20% 0.19% 0.57% 0.04% -0.14% 0.25% NZD 0.23% 0.34% 0.33% 0.68% 0.21% 0.14% 0.40% CHF -0.15% -0.03% -0.07% 0.29% -0.20% -0.25% -0.40%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
07:16 Fed’s Goolsbee believes borrowing costs would be “a fair bit lower” in 12-18 months from now – FT
Chicago Federal Reserve (Fed) President Austan Goolsbee said in a Financial Times (FT) interview on Wednesday that he “believed borrowing costs would be “a fair bit lower” in 12-18 months from now.” Additional comments Market angst over inflation would be ‘red flag’.
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Chicago Federal Reserve (Fed) President Austan Goolsbee said in a Financial Times (FT) interview on Wednesday that he “believed borrowing costs would be “a fair bit lower” in 12-18 months from now.”
Additional comments
Market angst over inflation would be ‘red flag’.
If investor expectations begin to converge with those of American households, the Fed would need to act.
Cautioned that it may take longer than anticipated for the next cut to come because of economic uncertainty.
‘Wait and see’ is the correct approach when you face uncertainty.
Market reaction
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading 0.13% higher on the day at 104.35, flirting with intraday highs following these comments.
US Dollar PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.08% 0.09% 0.45% -0.02% -0.10% -0.23% 0.13% EUR -0.08% 0.00% 0.34% -0.11% -0.17% -0.32% 0.05% GBP -0.09% -0.01% 0.37% -0.12% -0.18% -0.32% 0.07% JPY -0.45% -0.34% -0.37% -0.48% -0.57% -0.69% -0.30% CAD 0.02% 0.11% 0.12% 0.48% -0.04% -0.21% 0.19% AUD 0.10% 0.17% 0.18% 0.57% 0.04% -0.14% 0.25% NZD 0.23% 0.32% 0.32% 0.69% 0.21% 0.14% 0.39% CHF -0.13% -0.05% -0.07% 0.30% -0.19% -0.25% -0.39%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
07:05 FX option expiries for Mar 26 NY cut
FX option expiries for Mar 26 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.
FX option expiries for Mar 26 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.
EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.0600 828m 1.0690 1.2b 1.0760 1b 1.0900 954m 1.0925 1.3b 1.1000 1.5b
GBP/USD: GBP amounts 1.3075 413m
USD/JPY: USD amounts 148.00 816m 151.75 923m 152.00 1.1b
USD/CHF: USD amounts 0.8870 421m
AUD/USD: AUD amounts 0.6380 412m
USD/CAD: USD amounts 1.4240 684m 1.4320 708m 1.4500 910m
07:02 EUR/USD gains traction above 1.0750 as US consumer confidence tumbles to a four-year low
The EUR/USD pair gains ground to near 1.0780 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday.
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Weak confidence data and concerns about the economic slowdown in the United States could drag the US Dollar (USD) lower. Data released by the Conference Board on Tuesday showed that US consumer confidence fell to the lowest level in more than four years in March, indicating how the uncertainty is weighing heavily on households.
Persistent uncertainty over Trump’s reciprocal tariff plans for next week might undermine the Greenback in the near term. Trump said late Monday that not all levies would come on the April 2 deadline, and some countries would get breaks, without providing more details. "There's an elevated baseline anxiety in the markets still ahead of next week's trade policy announcement from the Trump administration," said Kyle Rodda, senior financial markets analyst at capital.com.
However, the dovish comments from the European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers might weigh on the EUR. ECB Governing Council, Francois Villeroy de Galhau, said late Tuesday that there is still room to cut the interest rates further, and the 2.5% deposit rate could fall to 2% by the end of the summer. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Weak confidence data and concerns about the economic slowdown in the United States could drag the US Dollar (USD) lower. Data released by the Conference Board on Tuesday showed that US consumer confidence fell to the lowest level in more than four years in March, indicating how the uncertainty is weighing heavily on households.
Persistent uncertainty over Trump’s reciprocal tariff plans for next week might undermine the Greenback in the near term. Trump said late Monday that not all levies would come on the April 2 deadline, and some countries would get breaks, without providing more details. "There's an elevated baseline anxiety in the markets still ahead of next week's trade policy announcement from the Trump administration," said Kyle Rodda, senior financial markets analyst at capital.com.
However, the dovish comments from the European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers might weigh on the EUR. ECB Governing Council, Francois Villeroy de Galhau, said late Tuesday that there is still room to cut the interest rates further, and the 2.5% deposit rate could fall to 2% by the end of the summer. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
07:01 Japan Leading Economic Index above expectations (108) in January: Actual (108.3)
Japan Leading Economic Index above expectations (108) in January: Actual (108.3)
07:01 Japan Coincident Index dipped from previous 116.2 to 116.1 in January
Japan Coincident Index dipped from previous 116.2 to 116.1 in January
07:00 Singapore Industrial Production (YoY) came in at -1.3%, below expectations (7.5%) in February
Singapore Industrial Production (YoY) came in at -1.3%, below expectations (7.5%) in February
07:00 Singapore Industrial Production (MoM) below expectations (-0.3%) in February: Actual (-7.5%)
Singapore Industrial Production (MoM) below expectations (-0.3%) in February: Actual (-7.5%)
06:56 USD/CHF holds gains near 0.8850 as US Dollar advances due to prevailing market caution
The USD/CHF pair rebounds after two consecutive days of losses, trading around 0.8840 during Asian hours on Wednesday.
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The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against six major currencies, recovers from recent losses and hovers around 104.30. The Greenback gains momentum as US Treasury yields rise, with the 2-year and 10-year bond yields standing at 4.01% and 4.33%, respectively, at the time of writing.
Hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Adriana Kugler further bolster the USD. On Tuesday, Kugler reiterated that the Fed's monetary policy remains restrictive and appropriately positioned. She also noted that progress toward the 2% inflation target has slowed since last summer, highlighting the recent rise in goods inflation as "unhelpful."
Swiss National Bank (SNB) reported on Monday that Switzerland’s current account surplus narrowed to CHF 9.8 billion in Q4 2024, down from CHF 13.8 billion in the same period the previous year. Meanwhile, the services' account deficit widened to CHF 9.4 billion from CHF 8.7 billion, while the goods account surplus grew to CHF 30 billion from CHF 27.9 billion a year earlier.
Additionally, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could drive safe-haven demand for the Swiss Franc (CHF). Israel has resumed airstrikes in Gaza following a nearly two-month ceasefire with Hamas. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to escalate military operations to secure the release of hostages and dismantle Hamas.
Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc?
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency?
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc?
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc?
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc?
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
06:51 PBOC Adviser: Reform measures are needed for boosting consumption
Speaking at the Boao Forum on Wednesday, Huang Yiping, an adviser to the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), stated that “reform measures are needed to boost consumption.” Additional quotes Changes in global environment will be challenging for China.
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Speaking at the Boao Forum on Wednesday, Huang Yiping, an adviser to the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), stated that “reform measures are needed to boost consumption.”
Additional quotes
Changes in global environment will be challenging for China.
Incomes and confidence are crucial for boosting consumer demand.
Market reaction
AUD/USD was last seen trading at 0.6309, up 0.10% on the day.
PBOC FAQs What does the People's Bank of China do?
The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market. Who owns the PBoC?
The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts. What are the main policy tools used by the PBoC?
Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi. Are private banks allowed in China?
Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
06:46 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD trades with negative bias near $30.60; bullish potential intact
Silver (XAG/USD) attracts some sellers during the Asian session on Wednesday and erodes a part of the previous day's strong move up.
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The XAG/USD last week showed some resilience below the $33.00 mark and the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. The subsequent move-up and positive oscillators on the daily chart validate the positive outlook. Hence, any further intraday slide could be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited near the said handle.
A convincing break below, however, might prompt some technical selling and drag the XAG/USD further below last week's low, around the $32.65 region, towards testing the $32.00 round figure. This is followed by supports near the $31.80 zone (March 11 low), which if broken might shift the bias in favor of bears and expose the monthly low, around the $31.10 area.
On the flip side, bulls might now wait for a move beyond the $33.80 area, or the weekly high touched earlier this Wednesday, before placing fresh bets. The XAG/USD might then reclaim the $34.00 mark and climb further to a multi-month top, around the $34.20-$34.25 region touched on March 18, en route to a multi-year peak, around the $34.85 zone touched in October.
XAG/USD 4-hour chart
Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver?
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices?
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices?
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves?
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
06:35 India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices fell in India on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
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Gold prices fell in India on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 8,308.97 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 8,321.84 it cost on Tuesday.
The price for Gold decreased to INR 96,914.88 per tola from INR 97,064.31 per tola a day earlier. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 8,308.97 10 Grams 83,090.28 Tola 96,914.88 Troy Ounce 258,438.20
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Daily digest market movers: Gold price underpinned by high inflation expectations The US 10-year T-note yield is down three basis points (bps) at 4.308%. US real yields drop three bps to 1.956% according to US 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yields. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the Greenback against a basket of six currencies, drops 0.15% to 104.15. The CB Consumer Confidence in March fell from 100.1 to 92.9, missing estimates of 94. According to the CB, write-in responses to the survey showed “worries about the impact of trade policies and tariffs in particular are on the rise.” On Monday, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic stated that he supports only one rate cut this year and doesn’t expect inflation to return to target until around 2027. FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold?
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold?
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets?
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on?
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
06:29 Gold price holds above $3,000 mark; lacks bullish conviction amid positive risk tone
Gold price (XAU/USD) trades comfortably above the $3,000 psychological mark for the second straight day on Wednesday, though it remains below the previous day's swing high.
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Adding to this, rising bets the Federal Reserve (Fed) will resume its rate-cutting cycle soon amid fears of a US recession lend additional support to the non-yielding Gold price. However, a generally positive risk tone acts as a headwind for the safe-haven XAU/USD pair. Traders also opt to wait for the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index before positioning for any further gains. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for the bullion is to the upside.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price draws support from trade jitters, dovish Fed expectations, and subdued USD demand The US Dollar retreated from a nearly three-week high after data released on Tuesday showed that the Conference Board's US Consumer Confidence Index fell for a fourth straight month, to a four-year low level of 92.9 in March. The survey also revealed that the Expectations Index fell to 65.2, or the lowest level in 12 years and well below the threshold of 80 which usually signals a recession ahead. This comes after the Federal Reserve last week revised its growth outlook downward amid the uncertainty over the impact of US President Donald Trump's trade policies. Moreover, reports that US reciprocal tariffs scheduled to be imposed on April 2 would be more targeted help ease inflation concerns and should allow the US central bank to keep cutting rates, benefiting the non-yielding Gold price. In fact, the Fed had signaled that it would deliver two 25 basis points interest rate cuts by the end of this year. The markets, however, are pricing in the possibility that the US central bank would lower borrowing costs in June, July, and October policy meetings. This overshadows hawkish remarks from Fed Governor Kugler, saying that she supports holding interest rates steady for some time. Meanwhile, Trump imposed a secondary tariff on Venezuela and said that any country that buys oil or gas from Venezuela would face a 25% tariff when trading with the US. Furthermore, Trump is expected to announce so-called retaliatory tariffs – that would offset levies on US goods and are set to take effect on April 2 – on about 15 major US trading partners, keeping investors on the edge. Russia and Ukraine have reached an agreement to halt military strikes in the Black Sea and on energy infrastructure following negotiations mediated by the US. Apart from this, the latest optimism over China's stimulus aimed at boosting consumption remains supportive of a generally positive tone around the equity markets. This is holding back the XAU/USD bulls from placing aggressive bets. Traders now look forward to Wednesday's release of US Durable Goods Orders, which, along with speeches by influential FOMC members, should provide some impetus to the USD and the commodity. The focus, however, will remain glued to the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, which could provide cues about the Fed's rate-cut path and drive the precious metal.
Gold price bulls could aim towards retesting the all-time peak, around the $3,057-3,058 area touched last week
From a technical perspective, bullish resilience near the $3,000 mark and the subsequent move up, along with positive oscillators on the daily chart, suggest that the path of least resistance for the Gold price is to the upside. Some follow-through buying beyond the overnight swing high, around the $3,036 area, will reaffirm the constructive outlook and lift the XAU/USD pair towards the all-time peak, around the $3,057-3,058 zone touched last week.
On the flip side, the $3,000 mark should continue to protect the immediate downside for the Gold price and act as a key pivotal point. A convincing break below might prompt some technical selling and drag the XAU/USD pair to the $2,982-2,978 region. The corrective fall could extend further toward the next relevant support near the $2,956-2,954 resistance breakpoint.
Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold?
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold?
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets?
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on?
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
06:17 GBP/USD Price Forecast: Tests nine-day EMA barrier near 1.2950 amid a bullish bias
The GBP/USD pair loses ground after registering gains in the previous two sessions, trading around 1.2930 during the Asian hours on Wednesday.
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The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned above 50, reinforcing strong bullish momentum. However, the GBP/USD pair has broken below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), suggesting a bearish shift in the short-term price momentum.
The GBP/USD pair is testing an immediate barrier at the nine-day EMA at the 1.2938 level. A rebound above this level could revive the short-term price momentum, followed by the four-month high at 1.3014, recorded on March 20. Further advancement could reinforce the bullish bias and support the pair to test the ascending channel’s upper boundary near 1.3170.
On the downside, the GBP/USD pair is likely to navigate the region around the ascending channel’s lower boundary near 1.2840, followed by the 50-day EMA at 1.2739. A break below this level could weaken the medium-term price momentum and put downward pressure on the pair to depreciate toward a two-month low at the 1.2249 level, which was recorded on February 3.
GBP/USD: Daily Chart
British Pound PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.07% 0.10% 0.41% -0.00% -0.04% -0.18% 0.10% EUR -0.07% 0.03% 0.31% -0.08% -0.10% -0.25% 0.03% GBP -0.10% -0.03% 0.31% -0.10% -0.12% -0.28% 0.04% JPY -0.41% -0.31% -0.31% -0.40% -0.45% -0.58% -0.28% CAD 0.00% 0.08% 0.10% 0.40% 0.00% -0.18% 0.14% AUD 0.04% 0.10% 0.12% 0.45% 0.00% -0.15% 0.16% NZD 0.18% 0.25% 0.28% 0.58% 0.18% 0.15% 0.30% CHF -0.10% -0.03% -0.04% 0.28% -0.14% -0.16% -0.30%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
05:43 USD/CAD remains below 1.4300 amid news of Canada facing US tariffs lowest tier
USD/CAD extends its losing streak for the third consecutive session, hovering near 1.4270 during Wednesday’s Asian trading hours.
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US President Donald Trump is reportedly weighing a three-tiered tariff system, though some sources indicate this approach is not yet official. However, it aligns with the government's expectations for the upcoming week.
Additionally, the CAD benefits from rising Oil prices, supported by supply concerns amid escalating Middle East tensions and a sharper-than-expected drop in US crude inventories. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price remains in positive territory for the third straight day, trading around $69.10 per barrel at the time of writing.
However, the downside of the USD/CAD pair could be limited as the US Dollar (USD) gains support as market caution rises ahead of US President Donald Trump's tariff announcement on April 2. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, retraced its recent losses from the previous session and is trading around 104.30 at the time of writing.
Additionally, the Greenback finds support from hawkish remarks by Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler. On Tuesday, Kugler emphasized that the Fed’s interest rate policy remains restrictive and well-positioned. Kugler also noted that progress toward the 2% inflation target has slowed since last summer and described the recent rise in goods inflation as "unhelpful."
Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar?
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar?
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar?
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar?
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar?
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
05:15 UK CPI expected to soften in February, keeping pressure on BoE
The United Kingdom’s (UK) Office for National Statistics (ONS) will publish the highly anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February on Wednesday at 07:00 GMT.
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.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The United Kingdom’s Office for National Statistics will release the February CPI data on Wednesday.The annual UK headline and core CPI inflation are set to ease slightly in February.The UK CPI data could impact the direction of the Pound Sterling and the BoE’s interest rates. The United Kingdom’s (UK) Office for National Statistics (ONS) will publish the highly anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February on Wednesday at 07:00 GMT.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) could experience intense volatility following the UK CPI inflation report, as it is likely to alter the market’s expectations for the Bank of England’s (BoE) future interest rate cuts.
What to expect from the next UK inflation report?
The UK Consumer Price Index is expected to increase by 2.9% year-over-year (YoY) in February, following a 3% growth in January.
The reading is expected to remain distant from the BoE’s 2.0% target.
Core CPI inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco prices, is expected to be slightly lower at 3.6% (YoY) in February, down from January’s 3.7%.
According to a Bloomberg survey of economists, official data is expected to show that service inflation will likely ease to 4.9% in February after jumping to 5% in January.
Meanwhile, the British monthly CPI is expected to rise by 0.5% in the same period, compared to the previous decline of 0.1%.
Previewing the UK inflation data, TD Securities analysts noted: “Inflation is slated to cool slightly, with headline dropping to 2.8% (consensus: 2.9%; prior: 3.0%). We also expect core and services to come in lower, at 3.6% YoY (prior: 3.7% YoY and 4.9% YoY (prior: 5.0% YoY), respectively. While all these numbers are softer than in Jan, the deceleration remains too slow for the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) preferences.”
How will the UK Consumer Price Index report affect GBP/USD?
At its monetary policy meeting earlier this month, the Bank of England (BoE) held interest rates at 4.5% on Thursday, warranting caution against expectations that they would cut rates over its next few meetings amid heightened uncertainty over the UK and global economies.
“However, the 8-1 vote split to stay on hold was a hawkish surprise and triggered an upward adjustment to UK rate expectations. The swaps market continues to price in 50 bps of easing over the next 12 months but has fully priced out any odds of an additional 25 bps cut following the less dovish MPC vote split,” BBH analysts noted.
Therefore, an upside surprise to the headline and core inflation data is needed to reaffirm the BoE’s prudent approach and increased bets for fewer rate cuts this year. In such a case, the Pound Sterling uptrend is expected to resume, lifting GBP/USD back toward the 1.3050 barrier. Conversely, softer-than-expected inflation readings will likely alleviate UK economic concerns, reviving expectations for aggressive BoE rate cuts and extending GBP/USD correction from four-month highs.
Any reaction to the UK inflation report is likely to be short-lived, given the upcoming British Spring Budget Statement, scheduled for later on Wednesday.
Dhwani Mehta, Asian Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, offers a brief technical outlook for the major and explains: “GBP/USD is holding above all major daily Simple Moving Averages (SMA) heading into the UK CPI showdown, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum indicator in the daily chart holding firm above 50. The 50-day SMA and the 100-day SMA Bull Cross, confirmed on Monday, remains in play and acts as a tailwind for the pair.”
Dhwani adds: “However, the pair needs acceptance above the 1.3000 threshold to initiate a sustained uptrend toward the November 2024 high of 1.3048. The next relevant resistance is aligned at the 1.3100 round level. Alternatively, the immediate support is seen at the 21-day SMA at 1.2863, below which the critical 200-day SMA at 1.2800 will come into play. A sustained break below this level will intensify the selling pressure, potentially leading to a test of the 1.2750 psychological level.”
Economic Indicator
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
The United Kingdom (UK) Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly basis, is a measure of consumer price inflation – the rate at which the prices of goods and services bought by households rise or fall – produced to international standards. It is the inflation measure used in the government’s target. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Wed Mar 26, 2025 07:00 Frequency: MonthlyConsensus: 2.9%Previous: 3%Source: Office for National Statistics
Why it matters to traders?
The Bank of England is tasked with keeping inflation, as measured by the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) at around 2%, giving the monthly release its importance. An increase in inflation implies a quicker and sooner increase of interest rates or the reduction of bond-buying by the BOE, which means squeezing the supply of pounds. Conversely, a drop in the pace of price rises indicates looser monetary policy. A higher-than-expected result tends to be GBP bullish.
BoE FAQs What does the Bank of England do and how does it impact the Pound?
The Bank of England (BoE) decides monetary policy for the United Kingdom. Its primary goal is to achieve ‘price stability’, or a steady inflation rate of 2%. Its tool for achieving this is via the adjustment of base lending rates. The BoE sets the rate at which it lends to commercial banks and banks lend to each other, determining the level of interest rates in the economy overall. This also impacts the value of the Pound Sterling (GBP). How does the Bank of England’s monetary policy influence Sterling?
When inflation is above the Bank of England’s target it responds by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is positive for the Pound Sterling because higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls below target, it is a sign economic growth is slowing, and the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit in the hope businesses will borrow to invest in growth-generating projects – a negative for the Pound Sterling. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Pound?
In extreme situations, the Bank of England can enact a policy called Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the BoE substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. QE is a last resort policy when lowering interest rates will not achieve the necessary result. The process of QE involves the BoE printing money to buy assets – usually government or AAA-rated corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Pound Sterling. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Pound Sterling?
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE, enacted when the economy is strengthening and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Bank of England (BoE) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to encourage them to lend; in QT, the BoE stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive for the Pound Sterling.
04:54 USD/INR holds positive ground on a rise in month-end US Dollar demand
The Indian Rupee (INR) loses momentum on Wednesday. Month-end US Dollar (USD) demand from local oil companies and importers, coupled with the Greenback's recovery against major currencies, undermines the Indian currency.
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On the other hand, the rise in Indian stock markets with foreign institutional investors (FIIs) back into buying mode lifts the local currency. The US MBA’s Mortgage Applications and Durable Goods Orders are due later on Wednesday. Also, the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials are scheduled to speak, including Neel Kashkari and Alberto Musalem. Indian Rupee against the USD edges lower amid firm US Dollar demand “There was month-end demand, particularly from oil companies, and likely dollar demand from the Reserve Bank to close its open short positions due in March,” said Anil Bhansali, head of treasury, Finrex Treasury Advisors. US President Donald Trump said early Wednesday that he is set to implement copper import tariffs within weeks, per Bloomberg. The US Consumer Confidence Index has fallen for the fourth consecutive month to a 12-year low, dropping to 92.9 in March, the Conference Board showed Tuesday. This figure came in lower than the estimation of 94.5. The US New Home Sales rose 1.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 676,000 units in February, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau revealed on Tuesday. The sales pace for January was revised up to a rate of 664,000 units from the previously reported 657,000 units. USD/INR’s bearish outlook remains in play under the 100-day EMA The Indian Rupee softens on the day. The USD/INR pair keeps the bearish vibe, characterized by the price holding below the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average on the daily timeframe. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) moves below the 30.00 mark, indicating oversold conditions and warranting some caution. This suggests that further consolidation or a temporary recovery is on the cards.
The low of January 6 at 85.60 acts as an initial support level for USD/INR. Sustained bearish pressure could drag the pair lower to 84.84, the low of December 19, 2024. Further south, the additional downside filter to watch is 84.22, the low of November 25, 2024.
On the upside, the psychological level and the 100-day EMA in the 85.95-86.00 zone appear to be a tough nut to crack for bulls. A decisive break above this level could set its sights on the next upside targets at 86.48, the low of February 21, en route to 87.00, the round figure. Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
On the other hand, the rise in Indian stock markets with foreign institutional investors (FIIs) back into buying mode lifts the local currency. The US MBA’s Mortgage Applications and Durable Goods Orders are due later on Wednesday. Also, the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials are scheduled to speak, including Neel Kashkari and Alberto Musalem. Indian Rupee against the USD edges lower amid firm US Dollar demand “There was month-end demand, particularly from oil companies, and likely dollar demand from the Reserve Bank to close its open short positions due in March,” said Anil Bhansali, head of treasury, Finrex Treasury Advisors. US President Donald Trump said early Wednesday that he is set to implement copper import tariffs within weeks, per Bloomberg. The US Consumer Confidence Index has fallen for the fourth consecutive month to a 12-year low, dropping to 92.9 in March, the Conference Board showed Tuesday. This figure came in lower than the estimation of 94.5. The US New Home Sales rose 1.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 676,000 units in February, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau revealed on Tuesday. The sales pace for January was revised up to a rate of 664,000 units from the previously reported 657,000 units. USD/INR’s bearish outlook remains in play under the 100-day EMA The Indian Rupee softens on the day. The USD/INR pair keeps the bearish vibe, characterized by the price holding below the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average on the daily timeframe. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) moves below the 30.00 mark, indicating oversold conditions and warranting some caution. This suggests that further consolidation or a temporary recovery is on the cards.
The low of January 6 at 85.60 acts as an initial support level for USD/INR. Sustained bearish pressure could drag the pair lower to 84.84, the low of December 19, 2024. Further south, the additional downside filter to watch is 84.22, the low of November 25, 2024.
On the upside, the psychological level and the 100-day EMA in the 85.95-86.00 zone appear to be a tough nut to crack for bulls. A decisive break above this level could set its sights on the next upside targets at 86.48, the low of February 21, en route to 87.00, the round figure. Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
04:45 Japanese Yen erodes a part of Tuesday’s upward move amid positive risk tone
The Japanese Yen (JPY) ticked lower during the Asian session on Wednesday following the release of the Japan Service Producer Price Index (PPI), which eased to the 3.0% YoY rate in February.
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The hawkish outlook was reaffirmed by the January BoJ meeting minutes released on Tuesday, which showed that policymakers discussed the pace of raising interest rates. This marks a big divergence in comparison to the Federal Reserve's (Fed) forecast for two 25-basis-points rate cuts in 2025. The resultant narrowing of the Japan-US rate differential should act as a tailwind for the lower-yielding JPY, which, along with subdued US Dollar (USD) price action, cap the USD/JPY pair. Traders might also opt to wait for the release of the Tokyo CPI and the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index on Friday.
Japanese Yen is undermined by positive risk tone; BoJ rate hike bets should help limit deeper losses The Bank of Japan reported earlier this Wednesday that the Services Producer Price Index (PPI) – a leading indicator of Japan's service-sector inflation – rose 3.0% from a year earlier in February. The reading was slightly below the 3.1% increase in January. On a monthly basis, the index remained flat during the reported month after falling 0.5% in January. Moreover, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated that the central bank will continue to raise interest rates if economic and price developments move in line with forecasts made in the quarterly outlook report. Adding to this, significant wage hikes for the third consecutive year keep alive expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Japanese central bank. In contrast, the Federal Reserve signaled last week that it would deliver two 25-basis-point interest rate cuts by the end of this year. Meanwhile, the Fed gave a bump higher to its inflation projection, though it revised the growth outlook downward amid the growing uncertainty over the impact of US President Donald Trump's aggressive trade policies. Trump is expected to announce so-called retaliatory tariffs – that offset levies on US goods and are set to take effect on April 2 – on about 15 major US trading partners. Furthermore, Trump imposed a secondary tariff on Venezuela and said that any country that buys oil or gas from Venezuela would face a 25% tariff when trading with the US. The increasing pessimism about the US economy led to a sharp downturn in the US Consumer Confidence, which dropped for a fourth straight month in March. The Conference Board's survey further revealed that the Expectations Index fell to 65.2, or the lowest level in 12 years and well below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead. This, in turn, prompted a modest US Dollar pullback from a nearly three-week high touched on Tuesday and weighed heavily on the USD/JPY pair. The USD bulls failed to gain any respite from Fed Governor Adriana Kugler's hawkish remarks, saying that the progress toward returning inflation to the 2% target has slowed since last summer. Several Fed officials are set to speak in the coming days and will play a key role in influencing the USD price dynamics. In the meantime, traders will look to Wednesday's release of US Durable Goods Orders for short-term impetus. The focus, however, remains on the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index on Friday.
USD/JPY needs to find acceptance above the 151.00 mark to support prospects for additional gains
From a technical perspective, this week's breakout above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart was seen as a key trigger for bullish traders. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart have just started gaining positive traction and suggest that the path of least resistance for the USD/JPY pair is to the upside. However, the overnight failure ahead of the 151.00 mark warrants some caution. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for sustained strength and acceptance above the said handle before positioning for an extension of the recent recovery from a multi-month low. The subsequent move-up could lift spot prices beyond the monthly top, around the 151.30 area, towards the 152.00 round figure.
On the flip side, the 149.55 area, or the overnight swing low, now seems to protect the immediate downside, below which the USD/JPY pair could slide to the 149.00 mark en route to the 148.75-148.70 support. The latter coincides with the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, which if broken might shift the bias in favor of bearish traders. Spot prices might then accelerate the fall towards the 148.00 round figure and slide further towards the 147.35-147.30 region before eventually dropping below the 147.00 mark, towards the 146.55-146.50 area, or the multi-month low touched on March 11.
Economic Indicator
Corporate Service Price Index (YoY)
The Corporate Service Price Index (CSPI) released by the Bank of Japan measures the prices of services traded among companies. It presents price developments that reflect most sensitively the supply and demand conditions in the services market. It is also considered as an indicator for inflationary pressures. Normally, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the JPY, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish). Read more. Last release: Tue Mar 25, 2025 23:50 Frequency: MonthlyActual: 3%Consensus: -Previous: 3.1%Source: Bank of Japan
04:35 NZD/USD extends gains to near 0.5750 amid improved risk sentiment, China stimulus hopes
NZD/USD continues its upward momentum for the second consecutive day, trading around 0.5740 during Asian hours on Wednesday.
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Additionally, optimism surrounding potential US tariff exemptions provided some relief to the export-driven NZD. However, uncertainty remains as US President Trump reportedly considers three escalating tariff levels, though some sources suggest this tiered approach is not officially under discussion.
Further bolstering NZD, bullish momentum in New Zealand equities continues following signs of domestic recovery after the country exited the recession in Q4 2024. Government data released last week showed GDP grew 0.7% in the December quarter, surpassing analysts' forecasts of 0.4% and the central bank’s 0.3% projection.
The NZD could also find support from anticipated Chinese stimulus measures aimed at boosting consumption. China’s Communist Party and State Council have proposed initiatives to "vigorously boost consumption" by increasing wages and easing financial burdens, an effort that could benefit New Zealand exports given China’s role as a key trade partner.
However, the Kiwi Dollar may struggle due to expectations of further monetary easing from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). In its February meeting, the central bank signaled two 25-basis-point (bps) rate cuts in April and May, with a potential third later in the year.
Despite NZD strength, the upside for NZD/USD could be limited as the US Dollar (USD) finds support from hawkish remarks by Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler. On Tuesday, Kugler emphasized that the Fed’s interest rate policy remains restrictive and well-positioned. Kugler also noted that progress toward the 2% inflation target has slowed since last summer and described the recent rise in goods inflation as "unhelpful."
New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar?
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar?
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar?
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar?
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
03:39 US Presi. Trump plans to implement copper import tariffs within weeks
US President Donald Trump said in a Newsmax interview on Wednesday that he “plans to implement copper import tariffs within weeks,” per Bloomberg.
US President Donald Trump said in a Newsmax interview on Wednesday that he “plans to implement copper import tariffs within weeks,” per Bloomberg.
Additional quotes
Not many exceptions on April 2 tariffs.
All we're going to do is reciprocal.
I'll likely be more lenient than reciprocal.
03:29 WTI drifts higher above $69.00 on Venezuela supply worries
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $69.15 during the early Asian session on Wednesday.
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Crude Oil inventories declined larger than expected last week. The American Petroleum Institute (API) weekly report showed crude oil stockpiles in the United States for the week ending March 14 fell by 4.6 million barrels, compared to an increase of 4.593 million barrels in the previous week. The market consensus estimated that stocks would decrease by 2.5 million barrels.
US President Donald Trump said late Monday that he would be placing a 25% tariff on all imports from any country that buys oil or gas from Venezuela, effective April 2, as well as imposing new tariffs on the South American country itself. The fears of tighter global supply lift the WTI price to a three-week high.
On the other hand, the United States reached deals with Ukraine and Russia to pause attacks at sea and against energy targets, with Washington also attempting to ease certain sanctions against Moscow. A maritime and energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine offset concerns about tighter global supply, which might drag the WTI price lower. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Crude Oil inventories declined larger than expected last week. The American Petroleum Institute (API) weekly report showed crude oil stockpiles in the United States for the week ending March 14 fell by 4.6 million barrels, compared to an increase of 4.593 million barrels in the previous week. The market consensus estimated that stocks would decrease by 2.5 million barrels.
US President Donald Trump said late Monday that he would be placing a 25% tariff on all imports from any country that buys oil or gas from Venezuela, effective April 2, as well as imposing new tariffs on the South American country itself. The fears of tighter global supply lift the WTI price to a three-week high.
On the other hand, the United States reached deals with Ukraine and Russia to pause attacks at sea and against energy targets, with Washington also attempting to ease certain sanctions against Moscow. A maritime and energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine offset concerns about tighter global supply, which might drag the WTI price lower. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
03:28 Australian Dollar loses ground following downbeat Monthly CPI
The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges lower against the US Dollar (USD) after Wednesday’s release of the Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI), which rose 2.4% year-over-year in February, slightly below January’s 2.5% increase and market expectations of 2.5%.
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Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers presented the 2025/26 budget on Tuesday, outlining key economic forecasts and tax cuts totaling approximately A$17.1 billion across two rounds. The budget deficit is projected at A$27.6 billion for 2024-25 and A$42.1 billion for 2025-26. GDP growth is expected to reach 2.25% in the fiscal year 2026 and 2.5% in 2027. The tax cuts appear aimed at strengthening political support.
The AUD finds support as investors anticipate the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will keep interest rates unchanged next week, following its first rate cut of 25 basis points in four years this past February. RBA Assistant Governor (Economic) Sarah Hunter reaffirmed the central bank’s cautious stance on further cuts, with February’s policy statement signaling a more conservative approach than market expectations, particularly regarding US policy decisions and their impact on Australia’s inflation outlook.
Additionally, expectations of Chinese stimulus could boost the Australian economy, given strong trade ties between the two nations. China’s Communist Party and State Council have proposed measures to "vigorously boost consumption" by raising wages and easing financial burdens—an effort to restore consumer confidence and revitalize the struggling economy.
Australian Dollar depreciates as US Dollar gains support amid market caution The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, retraces its recent losses from the previous session and is trading around 104.30. The US Dollar gains support as market caution rises ahead of US President Donald Trump's tariff announcement on April 2. While Trump suggested that "a lot" of countries could receive exemptions, the specifics of his administration’s tariff strategy remain uncertain. On Wednesday, the Toronto Star cited sources indicating that Canada might face lower-end tariffs in the upcoming measures. However, nothing is guaranteed. Trump is reportedly considering three escalating tariff levels, though some sources suggest this tiered approach is not officially on the table. Nonetheless, it aligns with the government’s expectations for what may unfold next week. The S&P Global reported on Monday that the US Composite PMI climbed to 53.5 in March, up from February's 10-month low of 51.6, signaling the strongest growth since December 2024. Services PMI surged to 54.3 in March, a three-month high, from 51.0 in February. Meanwhile, the Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.8 from 52.7, falling short of market expectations of 51.8. Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Adriana Kugler stated on Tuesday that the central bank’s interest rate policy remains restrictive and appropriately positioned. However, she acknowledged that progress toward the 2% inflation target has slowed since last summer and described the recent rise in goods inflation as "unhelpful." Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic emphasized ongoing uncertainty on Monday, stating that inflation progress may be slower than previously projected. Bostic trimmed his 2025 rate cut expectations, citing persistent price pressure and trade-related risks. On Monday, Australia’s Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI climbed to 52.6 in March from 50.4 in February, while the Services PMI improved to 51.2 from 50.8. The Composite PMI also increased, reaching 51.3 in March compared to 50.6 previously.
Australian Dollar pulls back from 0.6300 barrier near nine-day EMA
The AUD/USD pair is trading near 0.6280 on Wednesday, with technical indicators signaling a bearish bias as the pair consolidates within a descending channel. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains slightly below 50, reinforcing the persistent downward momentum.
On the downside, the AUD/USD pair could navigate the region around the lower boundary of the descending channel at 0.6210, followed by the seven-week low of 0.6187, recorded on March 5.
The nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6306, aligned with the descending channel’s upper boundary, acts as the immediate barrier. A breakout above this crucial resistance zone could weaken the bearish bias, with the pair potentially testing the monthly high at 0.6391, which reached March 18.
AUD/USD: Daily Chart
Australian Dollar PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.06% 0.07% 0.26% 0.06% 0.15% 0.11% 0.06% EUR -0.06% 0.00% 0.16% -0.00% 0.10% 0.04% -0.01% GBP -0.07% -0.00% 0.19% -0.01% 0.09% 0.02% 0.02% JPY -0.26% -0.16% -0.19% -0.18% -0.12% -0.15% -0.17% CAD -0.06% 0.00% 0.00% 0.18% 0.12% 0.04% 0.03% AUD -0.15% -0.10% -0.09% 0.12% -0.12% -0.05% -0.08% NZD -0.11% -0.04% -0.02% 0.15% -0.04% 0.05% -0.03% CHF -0.06% 0.00% -0.02% 0.17% -0.03% 0.08% 0.03%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
Economic Indicator
Monthly Consumer Price Index (YoY)
The Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on a monthly basis, measures the changes in the price of a fixed basket of goods and services acquired by household consumers. The indicator was developed to provide inflation data at a higher frequency than the quarterly CPI. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. A high reading is seen as bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Wed Mar 26, 2025 00:30 Frequency: MonthlyActual: 2.4%Consensus: 2.5%Previous: 2.5%Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
03:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1754 vs. 7.1788 previous
On Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1754 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1788 and 7.2559 Reuters estimate.
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On Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1754 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1788 and 7.2559 Reuters estimate.
PBOC FAQs What does the People's Bank of China do?
The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market. Who owns the PBoC?
The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts. What are the main policy tools used by the PBoC?
Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi. Are private banks allowed in China?
Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
03:08 BoJ’s Ueda says to keep raising interest rates if economy on track
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said early Wednesday that the Japanese central bank will continue to raise interest rates if economic and price developments move in line with its projections, per Reuters.
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Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said early Wednesday that the Japanese central bank will continue to raise interest rates if economic and price developments move in line with its projections, per Reuters.
Key quotes
Japan’s economy is recovering moderately, albeit with some weaknesses.
Japan’s economy is likely to continue growing above potential.
Expect underlying inflation to accelerate gradually.
Uncertainty surrounding Japan’s economy, prices remain high.
Expect to keep raising interest rates if the economy, prices move in line with our forecasts made in the quarterly outlook report.
Japan’s real interest rate level remains extremely low.
Recent high inflation is due largely to the lagged effect of past rises in import costs, recent acceleration in food price rises.
Such cost-push factors are likely to gradually dissipate.
Underlying inflation is likely to gradually converge towards our 2% target even when a temporary boost from food inflation disappears.
There is uncertainty on whether food, rice prices will fall but on a year-on-year basis, the pace of increase likely to slow ahead.
Underlying inflation is still somewhat below 2%.
We have yet to sufficiently achieve our price target.
Market reaction
At the time of press, the USD/CAD pair was up 0.07% on the day at 150.15.
Bank of Japan FAQs What is the Bank of Japan?
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%. What has been the Bank of Japan’s policy?
The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance. How do Bank of Japan’s decisions influence the Japanese Yen?
The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance. Why did the Bank of Japan decide to start unwinding its ultra-loose policy?
A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
02:53 United States API Weekly Crude Oil Stock dipped from previous 4.593M to -4.6M in March 21
United States API Weekly Crude Oil Stock dipped from previous 4.593M to -4.6M in March 21
02:34 Australia’s monthly CPI inflation eases to 2.4% YoY in February vs. 2.5% expected
Australia’s monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.4% in the year to February, compared to a 2.5% rise seen in January, according to the data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Wednesday.
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Australia’s monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.4% in the year to February, compared to a 2.5% rise seen in January, according to the data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Wednesday.
The market forecast was for 2.5% growth in the reported period. Market reaction to Australia’s monthly CPI inflation At the time of writing, the AUD/USD pair is trading 0.07% higher on the day to trade at 0.6304. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
The market forecast was for 2.5% growth in the reported period. Market reaction to Australia’s monthly CPI inflation At the time of writing, the AUD/USD pair is trading 0.07% higher on the day to trade at 0.6304. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
02:27 US President Donald Trump may impose escalating tariff levels, Canada could be on the lower end of tariffs
Citing sources, the Toronto Star reported on Wednesday that Canada could be on the lower end of the April 2 tariffs.
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Citing sources, the Toronto Star reported on Wednesday that Canada could be on the lower end of the April 2 tariffs.
Key quotes
Nothing is guaranteed.
Trump may impose three escalating levels of tariffs.
Despite a recent news report, the tiered approach is not on the table, the sources said it aligns with the government’s understanding of what’s about to hit next week.
Countries would, in fact, be put into low, medium or high levels.
It's not clear what those tariff levels would be. Market reaction At the time of press, the USD/CAD pair was down 0.05% on the day at 1.4275. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
Trump may impose three escalating levels of tariffs.
Despite a recent news report, the tiered approach is not on the table, the sources said it aligns with the government’s understanding of what’s about to hit next week.
Countries would, in fact, be put into low, medium or high levels.
It's not clear what those tariff levels would be. Market reaction At the time of press, the USD/CAD pair was down 0.05% on the day at 1.4275. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
01:51 Japan Corporate Service Price Index (YoY) down to 3% in February from previous 3.1%
Japan Corporate Service Price Index (YoY) down to 3% in February from previous 3.1%
01:38 ECB's Villeroy: There is still scope for further policy easing, the extent is up for debate
Member of the European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council and Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau said late Tuesday that there is still room to lower interest rates further, and the 2.5% deposit rate could fall to 2% by the end of the summer, per Reuters.
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Member of the European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council and Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau said late Tuesday that there is still room to lower interest rates further, and the 2.5% deposit rate could fall to 2% by the end of the summer, per Reuters.
Key quotes
I believe there is still scope for further easing. However, the pace and extent remain open.
Seen from today, markets expect an ECB interest rate of around 2% in the summer.
It is a possible scenario, considering that summer in Europe lasts from June till September.
All other things being equal, this rise in long term yields means a tightening of financial conditions, which we have to incorporate in our monetary assessment. Market reaction At the time of press, the EUR/USD pair was up 0.18% on the day at 1.0787. ECB FAQs What is the ECB and how does it influence the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Euro? In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Euro? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
Seen from today, markets expect an ECB interest rate of around 2% in the summer.
It is a possible scenario, considering that summer in Europe lasts from June till September.
All other things being equal, this rise in long term yields means a tightening of financial conditions, which we have to incorporate in our monetary assessment. Market reaction At the time of press, the EUR/USD pair was up 0.18% on the day at 1.0787. ECB FAQs What is the ECB and how does it influence the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Euro? In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Euro? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
01:32 EUR/USD continues to backslide, but short pressure beginning to ease
EUR/USD has slowed its recent pace of declines, but still lost ground for a fifth consecutive trading day as price action continues to test below 1.0800.
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On Tuesday, the US Conference Board (CB) reported an increase in one-year consumer inflation expectations, rising to 6.2% in March from 5.8% in February. Consumers remain highly concerned about the persistently high prices of essential household items, particularly eggs, and the potential inflationary impacts of tariffs imposed during the Trump administration. Furthermore, the CB’s consumer confidence survey revealed a drop in future economic expectations, plummeting to a new 12-year low of 65.2 in March, significantly below the 80.0 mark that typically signals a possible recession.
Adding to these concerns, Moody’s ratings agency issued a strong warning early Tuesday, highlighting a “deterioration” in the US’s fiscal strength, particularly regarding the increasing challenges of servicing US debt. Moody’s also projected that the country’s fiscal strength is likely to face a prolonged decline, a statement likely to anger Donald Trump and his administration, who are currently advocating for a substantial increase in the debt ceiling from Congress.
In US economic news, Durable Goods Orders are set to be released during the New York market session. Overall, these orders are anticipated to decrease by -1.0% in February, following a solid rebound of 3.2% in January.
EUR/USD price forecast
A steady five-day drop has pushed EUR/USD back below the 1.0800 handle, and the pair could be poised for a furthe backslide into the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.0675. A near-term turnaround has dragged Fiber back down after a bullish push to the 1.0950 technical level fizzled out, and EUR/USD now has a fresh technical ceiling to contend with if bidders are able to get their ship keel-side down once more.
EUR/USD daily chart
Euro FAQs What is the Euro?
The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro?
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro?
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro?
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro?
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
01:23 GBP/USD coils ahead of key UK CPI inflation print
GBP/USD continues to wear worry lines into the charts near the 1.3000 handle as Cable traders draw into the midrange after a near-term bullish recovery lost steam.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}GBP/USD continues to hold steady near the 1.3000 region.Key UK CPI inflation data is due early on Wednesday.US Durable Goods Orders due later on during the American trading window.GBP/USD continues to wear worry lines into the charts near the 1.3000 handle as Cable traders draw into the midrange after a near-term bullish recovery lost steam. The pair has yet to draw in a confirmed pullback, as both Pound Sterling and Greenback traders await firmer signs of economic health from either economy.
The US Conference Board (CB) reported a further increase in one-year consumer inflation expectations on Tuesday, now at 6.2% in March compared to 5.8% in February. Consumers continue to express significant concern regarding the persistently high prices of essential household items, such as eggs, along with worries about potential inflation consequences tied to tariffs from the Trump administration. Additionally, the CB’s consumer confidence survey for future economic expectations has dropped to a new 12-year low in March, recording a figure of 65.2, which is substantially below the 80.0 threshold that often indicates a potential recession.
Compounding these issues, Moody’s ratings agency issued a stark warning early Tuesday, stating that the US’s fiscal strength has “deteriorated,” particularly emphasizing the growing issues with the affordability of US debt servicing. Furthermore, Moody’s indicated that the fiscal strength of the US is on course for a multi-year decline, a remark that is likely to provoke dissatisfaction from Donald Trump and his administration, who are presently seeking a significant increase in the debt limit from Congress.
UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figures are due early Wednesday, which could stoke GBP volumes. Median market forecasts are expecting annualized headline CPI inflation to tick down to 2.9% YoY versus the previous print of 3.0%, however the monthly figure is expected to accelerate to 0.5% MoM in February. January’s monthly CPI print initially contracted by 0.1%, and traders will be keeping a close eye out for any heavy revisions to recent data.
On the US side, Durable Goods Orders are due during the New York market session. Overall Durable Goods Orders are expected to decline in February, forecast to come in at -1.0% after January’s firm 3.2% rebound.
GBP/USD price forecast
GBP/USD continues to find room to play as price action remains locked in a near-term sideways grind between 1.3000 and 1.2900. Bids remain unable to find traction on either side of the rough congestion pattern, though Cable bulls will be able to find some room to breathe as intraday momentum remains firmly above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.2700.
GBP/USD daily chart
Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling?
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling?
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound?
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound?
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
01:13 USD/CAD holds steady above 1.4250 on tariff and election uncertainty
The USD/CAD pair flat lines around 1.4275 during the late American session on Tuesday.
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With Canadian elections approaching, the ruling Liberal Party and the official opposition Conservatives were effectively tied in polls conducted just before the campaign started on Sunday.
Analysts from Bannockburn Global Forex noted the impact of the election outcome and potential US tariffs, particularly after US President Donald Trump signaled that automobile tariffs are coming soon, while hinting that not all of his threatened levies would be imposed on April 2 and some countries may get breaks. Tariff and election uncertainty are likely to undermine the CAD in the near term.
On the other hand, a rise in Crude Oil prices might lift the commodity-linked Loonie and act as a headwind for USD/CAD. It’s worth noting that Canada is the largest oil exporter to the United States (US), and higher crude oil prices tend to have a positive impact on the CAD value.
On the USD’s front, speculation of an economic slowdown in the US economy could drag the Greenback lower. “The narrative seems to be shifting more toward the fact that tariffs are going to impact growth more than inflation,” said Vinny Bleau, director of fixed-income capital markets at Raymond James in Memphis, Tennessee. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
With Canadian elections approaching, the ruling Liberal Party and the official opposition Conservatives were effectively tied in polls conducted just before the campaign started on Sunday.
Analysts from Bannockburn Global Forex noted the impact of the election outcome and potential US tariffs, particularly after US President Donald Trump signaled that automobile tariffs are coming soon, while hinting that not all of his threatened levies would be imposed on April 2 and some countries may get breaks. Tariff and election uncertainty are likely to undermine the CAD in the near term.
On the other hand, a rise in Crude Oil prices might lift the commodity-linked Loonie and act as a headwind for USD/CAD. It’s worth noting that Canada is the largest oil exporter to the United States (US), and higher crude oil prices tend to have a positive impact on the CAD value.
On the USD’s front, speculation of an economic slowdown in the US economy could drag the Greenback lower. “The narrative seems to be shifting more toward the fact that tariffs are going to impact growth more than inflation,” said Vinny Bleau, director of fixed-income capital markets at Raymond James in Memphis, Tennessee. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
00:46 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD soars over 2% on stagflation woes igniting safe-haven demand
Silver price soared on Tuesday, registering gains of over 2.10%, as a weaker US Dollar could not cap the metal’s advance amid increased fears of a stagflationary scenario, following a Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence poll.
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XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
On Monday, I wrote, “Silver price formed a ‘quasi gravestone doji’ that usually appears in an uptrend, signifying a pause or end of the trend. Nevertheless, as it is preceded by a downtrend, it might indicate that bears had lost steam while buyers stepped in near the day's lows of $32.89.” That’s what happened.
Bulls moved as a stampede and drove the precious metal higher, capitalizing on falling US yields, clearing the $33.00 and $33.50 psychological figures on its way to current spot prices. Should Silver continue to find acceptance higher, the XAG/USD could reach the March 20 peak of $33.94, ahead of testing the $34.00 figure. If surpassed, the next stop would be last October’s monthly peak at $34.86.
Conversely, if XAG/USD slips beneath $33.00, immediate support emerges at the March 21 low of $32.66. Once hurdled, the next stop is the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $32.04.
XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily
Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver?
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices?
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices?
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves?
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
00:09 USD/JPY Price Forecast: Slips below 150.00 on USD weakness
The USD/JPY trimmed some of Monday’s gains, losing over 0.53% on Tuesday and dropping below the 150.00 figure as the US dollar weakened across the board.
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USD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook
USD/JPY made a U-turn on Tuesday, achieving a daily close below 150.00, which opened the door to hit a daily low of 149.55, slightly above the confluence of the Tenkan and Kijun-sen near 149.35/42. As price action stood below the Ichimoku Cloud (Kumo), the downtrend has resumed, but a decisive break below the 149.35/42 range could open the door to challenge the March 20 swing low of 148.18.
On the other hand, buyers reclaiming 150.00, the USD/JPY could be poised to test weekly highs of 150.94, which, if surpassed, could pave the way to test the confluence of the 50-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at 151.53/72.
USD/JPY Price Chart – Daily
Japanese Yen PRICE This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies this week. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Euro. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.24% -0.23% 0.40% -0.55% -0.50% -0.02% -0.07% EUR -0.24% -0.58% -0.36% -0.74% -0.75% -0.21% -0.27% GBP 0.23% 0.58% 0.64% -0.79% -0.21% 0.37% 0.20% JPY -0.40% 0.36% -0.64% -0.95% -0.93% -0.41% -0.49% CAD 0.55% 0.74% 0.79% 0.95% 0.10% 0.53% 0.47% AUD 0.50% 0.75% 0.21% 0.93% -0.10% 0.55% 0.49% NZD 0.02% 0.21% -0.37% 0.41% -0.53% -0.55% 0.01% CHF 0.07% 0.27% -0.20% 0.49% -0.47% -0.49% -0.01%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
00:02 South Korea BOK Manufacturing BSI climbed from previous 65 to 68 in April
South Korea BOK Manufacturing BSI climbed from previous 65 to 68 in April
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