Forex News Timeline

23:56 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD slips 1.20% as bullish momentum fades below $33.00
Silver's price retreats on Friday and fails to capitalize on falling US yields.

23:51 AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Bears deepen losses as pair hits multi-week lows
The AUD/JPY cross continued its downward trajectory on Friday to around 94.80, posting sharp losses and breaking through key technical support levels.

AUD/JPY extends its decline, falling sharply and breaking below the 20-day SMA.RSI remains in negative territory, reflecting intensifying bearish momentum.MACD histogram prints rising red bars, signaling increasing downside pressure.The AUD/JPY cross continued its downward trajectory on Friday to around 94.80, posting sharp losses and breaking through key technical support levels. The pair now trades at its lowest level in over two weeks, signaling that bears have taken firm control. The sustained drop below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) highlights the shift in market sentiment, with sellers dominating the current trend. Technical indicators reinforce the negative outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has plunged deeper into negative territory, suggesting that bearish momentum is accelerating and that the pair could remain under pressure in the near term. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is showing rising red bars, signaling growing downside momentum as sellers continue to gain ground. Looking ahead, unless the pair stages a strong recovery back above the 20-day SMA, the bearish outlook is likely to persist. The next support zone could emerge around the 94.50 area, while any attempt at recovery would likely face resistance near the 20-day SMA near 96.00. A decisive break above this level would be needed to shift sentiment and provide buyers with a foothold, though for now, the bears remain in command. AUD/JPY daily chart

22:57 Australian Dollar faces pressure after US PMI
The AUD/USD pair faces offers pressure near 0.6400 after the release of the United States (US) S&P Global PMI data for February.

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Although traders deem President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda less disruptive than initially feared, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) cautious interest rate cut stance also curbs the Aussie’s attempt to extend its recent upswing. Daily digest market movers: Aussie deflates as US PMI disappoints The US Manufacturing PMI came in at 51.6, surpassing the 51.5 consensus, yet the Services PMI contracted to 49.7, a significant miss versus 53.0 estimates—undermining broader economic optimism. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index dropped below expectations and the five-year Consumer Inflation Expectation index rose above forecasts, reflecting persistent price concerns. The US Dollar Index (DXY) hovered around 106.60, initially boosted by decent manufacturing data but later tempered by disappointing Services figures. Tariff jitters persist despite signs that Trump’s proposed measures may be less severe, as allies continue negotiations. The market remains wary of potential escalations against key trading partners, including China. The Australian Dollar (AUD) weakened modestly, although RBA Governor Michele Bullock’s hawkish rhetoric, highlighting the risk of pausing rate cuts, may offer some support. The RBA’s earlier 25 basis points reduction to 4.10% was framed as a cautious move amid signs of cooling inflation. Analysts anticipate only one more 25 basis points cut in 2025 unless Consumer Price Index (CPI) trends shift notably. AUD/USD technical outlook: Bulls fail to extend rally, pair hovers below key resistance The AUD/USD pair retreated after testing the 0.6400 mark, surrendering a portion of earlier gains in light of the US PMI results. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in a higher positive zone but is now declining, suggesting a softening bullish pressure. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram prints flatter green bars, pointing to a slowdown in momentum. Although the pair remains above its 20-day Simple Moving Average, the failure to break the 100-day Simple Moving Average underscores a possible consolidation phase, leaving traders poised for further tariff or Fed policy developments to set the next directional cue. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

22:48 Gold price holds near record highs, set for eight straight weekly gain
Gold price slides late on Friday, poised to end the week positively, accumulating eight straight weeks of gains that pushed the yellow metal to all-time highs of $2,954.

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At the time of writing, the XAU/USD trades at $2,940, down 0.15%. The financial markets' narrative has not changed as US President Donald Trump continues with rhetoric related to tariffs. In addition to imposing 25% tariffs on cars, pharmaceuticals and chips, Trump broadened duties to lumber and other soft commodities. This fueled the rally in Bullion prices as investors seeking safety drove prices higher amidst uncertainty about US trade policies. Meanwhile, geopolitics took a second stage as there was some progress in the discussion to end the Russia-Ukraine war, which relieved the markets. Data-wise, business activity in the United States was mixed. The manufacturing PMI improved. Conversely, the Services PMI plunged for the first time since January 2023. Other data showed that Existing Home Sales plunged, and the University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Final reading for February deteriorated further. Daily digest market movers: Gold price fails to capitalize on US yields drop The US 10-year Treasury bond yield falls nine basis points (bps) and yields 4.416%. US real yields, which correlate inversely to Bullion prices, drop four basis points to 1.996%, a tailwind for Bullion prices. US S&P Global revealed the Manufacturing PMI in February expanded by 51.6, up from 51.2, exceeding forecasts. The Services PMI plummeted from 52.9 to 49.7. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in February dipped from 71.1 to 64.7. American consumers’ inflation expectations for one year rose from 3.3% to 4.3% as foreseen, and for a five-year period, they are anchored at 3.5%, up from 3.2% revealed in the previous month. The Federal Reserve’s Meeting Minutes from Wednesday revealed that Trump’s trade and immigration policies fueled concerns over rising prices. The World Gold Council revealed that central bank purchases rose more than 54% YoY to 333 tonnes following Trump’s victory. Money market fed funds futures are pricing in 50 basis points of easing by the Fed in 2025. XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold price faces resistance and retreats Gold price remains upwardly biased, yet the trend seems exhausted. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests that buyers are losing ground with the RSI’s exiting from overbought territory opening the door for a retracement in Bullion prices. The first key support area to look at is $2,900. Once surpassed, sellers would target the February 14 swing low of $2,877, followed by the February 12 daily low of $2,864. Conversely, if XAU/USD rises past $2,954, the first resistance would be the psychological $2,950, followed by $3,000.Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

22:30 United States CFTC Oil NC Net Positions down to 197.6K from previous 220K
United States CFTC Oil NC Net Positions down to 197.6K from previous 220K

22:30 United States CFTC Gold NC Net Positions dipped from previous $284.5K to $268.7K
United States CFTC Gold NC Net Positions dipped from previous $284.5K to $268.7K

22:30 United States CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: $-40K vs previous $-17.1K
United States CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: $-40K vs previous $-17.1K

22:30 Eurozone CFTC EUR NC Net Positions climbed from previous €-64.4K to €-51.4K
Eurozone CFTC EUR NC Net Positions climbed from previous €-64.4K to €-51.4K

22:30 Australia CFTC AUD NC Net Positions rose from previous $-65.6K to $-56.7K
Australia CFTC AUD NC Net Positions rose from previous $-65.6K to $-56.7K

22:30 Japan CFTC JPY NC Net Positions increased to ¥60.6K from previous ¥54.6K
Japan CFTC JPY NC Net Positions increased to ¥60.6K from previous ¥54.6K

22:30 United Kingdom CFTC GBP NC Net Positions rose from previous £-3.2K to £-0.6K
United Kingdom CFTC GBP NC Net Positions rose from previous £-3.2K to £-0.6K

21:01 Dow Jones Industrial Average falls over 700 points on Friday
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) backslid over 700 points on Friday, knocking lower around one and a half percent and touching the 43,500 level for the first time in over a month.

20:44 US Dollar gains modestly despite PMI data disappointing
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US Dollar’s performance against six major currencies, is holding on to minor gains on Friday, trading around 106.50.

20:07 Mexican Peso weakens as GDP contracts in Q4, growth outlook dims
The Mexican Peso (MXN) lost some ground against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday as the Mexican economy decelerated in the last quarter of 2024.

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This indicates that the outlook is not as promising as expected amid an environment of uncertainty linked to United States (US) President Donald Trump's trade policies. USD/MXN trades at 20.33, registering gains of 0.14%. Mexico’s economy contracted in Q4 2024 for the first time since the third quarter of 2021, revealed the Statistics agency INEGI. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) matched estimates on a quarterly basis and dipped compared to the previous reading and forecasts on a yearly basis. Banco de Mexico (Banxico) expects growth this year to slow down by 0.6%, as the latest meeting minutes revealed. The Governing Board expects the economy to grow 0.6% in 2025, down from the 1.2% previously foreseen, well below the projections of Mexico’s Finance Ministry of 2.3% and beneath the Citi Expectations Survey of 1%. Given the backdrop, the USD/MXN pair shows further upside. S&P Global revealed that manufacturing activity in the United States improved. Meanwhile, the Services PMI plunged to contractionary territory for the first time since January 2023. Other data showed that Existing Home Sales plunged and the University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Final reading for February deteriorated further. Daily digest market movers: Mexican Peso heavy, economy projected to underperform Gross Domestic Product (GDP) shrank by -0.6% QoQ in the fourth quarter of 2024, down from a 1.1% expansion and matched estimates of a Reuters poll. On yearly terms, Mexico’s economy grew 0.5% in Q4 compared to 2023 figures. Growth for the whole year hit 1.2%, its worst annual number since 2020. Monetary policy divergence between Banxico and the Fed favors further USD/MXN upside. The Fed is expected to keep rates steady, while Banxico is foreseen to cut rates again by 50 basis points at the next meeting. At the time of writing, US President Donald Trump reiterated tariffs of 25% on cars, effective on April 2. Trade disputes between the US and Mexico remain front and center. Although the countries found common ground previously, USD/MXN traders should know that there is a 30-day pause and that tensions could arise toward the end of February. USD/MXN technical outlook: Mexican Peso drops as USD/MXN bounces off 20.20 The USD/MXN pair does not present abrupt changes, with the trend slightly tilted to the upside. After bottoming near the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 20.23, buyers pushed the pair upwards. Nevertheless, stir resistance near 20.40, maintains the exotic pair trading sideways. If USD/MXN clears 20.40, the next resistance would be 20.50, followed by the January 17 20.93 mark. On further strength, the next key resistance levels are 21.00 and the year-to-date (YTD) high of 21.28. Conversely, if the pair tumbles below 20.23, the 20.00 figure is up next. A breach of the latter exposes the October 18, 2024, low at 19.64, ahead of the 200-day SMA at 19.37.Mexican Peso FAQs What key factors drive the Mexican Peso? The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity. How do decisions of the Banxico impact the Mexican Peso? The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. How does economic data influence the value of the Mexican Peso? Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Mexican Peso? As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

20:03 United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count increased to 487 from previous 481
United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count increased to 487 from previous 481

18:11 EUR/USD Price Analysis: Bulls lose momentum as pair faces rejection at 100-day SMA
The EUR/USD pair faced a setback on Friday, declining by 0.44% to settle near 1.0450 after encountering firm resistance at the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around 1.0540.

EUR/USD slips 0.22% to 1.0450 on Friday, reversing after testing the 100-day SMA.RSI drops sharply to 55, signaling weakening bullish momentum near the midpoint.MACD histogram prints lower green bars, indicating fading buying pressure and potential for further downside.The EUR/USD pair faced a setback on Friday, declining by 0.44% to settle near 1.0450 after encountering firm resistance at the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around 1.0540. This rejection marks a critical turning point for the pair, suggesting that bullish momentum is beginning to wane after a recent run higher. Without a decisive break above this key level, bulls appear to be losing their grip on the market. Technical indicators are reinforcing the weakening outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen sharply to 55, approaching the neutral midpoint, which could signal a shift in sentiment if breached. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is showing flat green bars with a downward tilt, reflecting diminishing buying pressure and growing risk of a bearish reversal. If EUR/USD fails to reclaim the 100-day SMA in the near term, the recent upward move could be deemed a temporary correction rather than a structural shift. The pair may either retreat further or become range-bound between the 100-day SMA resistance and the 20-day SMA, which could act as initial support around the 1.0415 region. A sustained break below the 20-day SMA would further solidify the bearish outlook. EUR/USD daily chart

17:21 GBP/USD slips after hitting record high past 100-day SMA
The GBP/USD registers losses during the North American session after testing the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.2658.

17:00 United States UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation came in at 3.5%, above expectations (3.3%) in January
United States UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation came in at 3.5%, above expectations (3.3%) in January

17:00 United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index below forecasts (67.8) in January: Actual (64.7)
United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index below forecasts (67.8) in January: Actual (64.7)

17:00 United States Existing Home Sales (MoM) registered at 4.08M, below expectations (4.12M) in January
United States Existing Home Sales (MoM) registered at 4.08M, below expectations (4.12M) in January

17:00 United States Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) down to -4.9% in January from previous 2.2%
United States Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) down to -4.9% in January from previous 2.2%

16:45 United States S&P Global Composite PMI dipped from previous 52.7 to 50.4 in February
United States S&P Global Composite PMI dipped from previous 52.7 to 50.4 in February

16:45 United States S&P Global Manufacturing PMI above expectations (51.5) in February: Actual (51.6)
United States S&P Global Manufacturing PMI above expectations (51.5) in February: Actual (51.6)

16:45 United States S&P Global Services PMI registered at 49.7, below expectations (53) in February
United States S&P Global Services PMI registered at 49.7, below expectations (53) in February

16:19 AUD/USD faces pressure around 0.6400 ahead of flash US PMI
The AUD/USD pair faces selling pressure around 0.6400 in North American trading hours on Friday.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}AUD/USD faces offers near 0.6400 ahead of the preliminary US S&P Global PMI data for February.Investors see Trump’s tariff agenda as less fearful than anticipations.RBA’s Bullock support for maintaining a cautious interest rate cut stance.The AUD/USD pair faces selling pressure around 0.6400 in North American trading hours on Friday. The Aussie pair weakens as the US Dollar (USD) trades firmly ahead of the release of the flash United States (US) S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) at 14:45 GMT. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, rises to 106.75 after recovering from the Year-to-day (YTD) low of 106.30, which it posted on Thursday. Flash PMI report is expected to show that the overall business activity expanded at a faster pace due to strong performance in manufacturing as well as the services sector. The Manufacturing and the Services PMI are estimated to have expanded at a faster pace to 51.5 and 53.0, respectively. Upbeat private sector PMI data would indicate a strong economic outlook. Such a scenario would force Federal Reserve (Fed) officials to continue maintaining a restrictive monetary policy stance. However, the outlook of the US Dollar remains uncertain as investors expect US President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda would be less fearful. Till now, the level of tariffs imposed by Trump is significantly lower than what he had vowed in the election campaign. Though Trump has proposed tariffs for a slew of items, investors expect his allies would manage to bargain with him and the impact on the global economy would be much lower than anticipated. Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar (AUD) weakens against its major peers, except the Japanese Yen (JPY), even though Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock reiterated his stance of maintaining caution on further monetary expansion. Bullock warned that the disinflation trend could stall if the RBA cuts interest rates too quickly. Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.26% 0.21% 0.48% 0.07% 0.30% 0.16% 0.25% EUR -0.26% -0.06% 0.22% -0.20% 0.03% -0.11% -0.02% GBP -0.21% 0.06% 0.29% -0.14% 0.09% -0.05% 0.04% JPY -0.48% -0.22% -0.29% -0.38% -0.17% -0.33% -0.23% CAD -0.07% 0.20% 0.14% 0.38% 0.22% 0.08% 0.17% AUD -0.30% -0.03% -0.09% 0.17% -0.22% -0.14% -0.06% NZD -0.16% 0.11% 0.05% 0.33% -0.08% 0.14% 0.09% CHF -0.25% 0.02% -0.04% 0.23% -0.17% 0.06% -0.09% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). On the economic data front, Australia’s Judo Bank Composite PMI expanded at a slightly faster pace to 51.2 from 51.1 in January. The Services PMI advanced to 51.4 from 51.2, while the. Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.6 from the former reading of 50.2. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

15:31 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD struggles around $33.00 as Fed officials guide restrictive policy stance
Silver price (XAG/USD) faces selling pressure above the key level of $33.00 in North American trading hours on Friday.

15:31 Canada Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) came in at 2.7%, above forecasts (1.8%) in December
Canada Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) came in at 2.7%, above forecasts (1.8%) in December

15:30 Canada Retail Sales (MoM) came in at 2.5%, above expectations (1.6%) in December
Canada Retail Sales (MoM) came in at 2.5%, above expectations (1.6%) in December

15:05 GBP turns lower from 100-day/week MA signals in mid-1.26s – Scotiabank
UK Retail Sales rose a solid 2.1% in January, well ahead of expectations, after run of soft data in Q4, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

UK Retail Sales rose a solid 2.1% in January, well ahead of expectations, after run of soft data in Q4, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. Intraday price action looks soft "But PMI data were mixed, with soft Manufacturing weakening further (46.5) while Services improved slightly to 51.1. The Composite index eased a tenth to 50.5 (from 50.6 in January). The data support the outlook for some additional—cautious—BoE easing ahead, in line with messaging from top policymakers recently." "GBP pushed higher yesterday to secure a close above its 100-day MA (1.2650), the first since November. Note the 100-week MA sits at 1.2652 currently. Intraday price action looks soft today, however, suggesting some risk of a 'false break'; loss of interim support at 1.2630 in the next couple of sessions may see the pound ease back more. Support is 1.2550/75."

15:01 EUR tops out in the low 1.05s again – Scotiabank
Preliminary Eurozone PMI data for February were mixed to slightly softer, weighing on the EUR somewhat in European trade, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Preliminary Eurozone PMI data for February were mixed to slightly softer, weighing on the EUR somewhat in European trade, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. Mixed Eurozone PMIs add to soft tone "French Services and Composite readings missed expectations as did the German Services data, entailing lower than expected results for the same Eurozone figures. German and French Manufacturing data were a little better than forecast, helping the Eurozone Manufacturing index to a small beat (47.3) versus expectations and the January data. Sluggish growth momentum supports the outlook for a little more easing from the ECB ahead." "The EUR’s retest of the 1.05 area appears to have resulted in another rejection. Intraday chart signals reflect a small top/reversal developing overnight from the 1.0505 area. Spot may drift back towards support at 1.0410/15 (Wednesday’s low) in the short run—but perhaps not much more than that amid weak trend momentum signals on the intraday and daily oscillators."

14:58 DXY: Short-covering lifts USD into weekend – Scotiabank
The US Dollar (USD) is trading higher on the day overall, with yesterday’s big winner, the JPY, this morning’s big loser after Japan’s January headline CPI reflected the anticipated pick up to 4.0% Y/Y, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

The US Dollar (USD) is trading higher on the day overall, with yesterday’s big winner, the JPY, this morning’s big loser after Japan’s January headline CPI reflected the anticipated pick up to 4.0% Y/Y, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. USD steadies ahead of the weekend "Core inflation quickened a little more than expected but the JPY is subject to profit-taking and position adjustment as investors dial back risk ahead of the weekend when who knows what social media post might drop. The JPY is still looking at a decent (1.25%, at writing) gain on the USD over the week. Just how far the USD can strengthen remains to be seen. My guess is not that far." "US Treasury Sec. Bessent commented Thursday that markets 'live in the future' and that USD appreciation since the presidential election would suggest that 'some' tariff risk is already priced into FX. Markets remain generally constructive on the USD outlook as tariff risks linger but delays and reprieves mean that USD gains likely exceed what tariff action has already been implemented (just additional tariffs on China) by quite some margin." "It will be some weeks (perhaps early April, I think) until we get more clarity on how and where tariffs are going to hit. The USD may only strengthen more meaningfully thereafter if the US imposes broad and aggressive tariffs on its trade partners. In the interim, sliding volatility—the broader measure of G7 FX vol has dropped back to its lowest (around 8%) since the late summer—suggests FX will idle in choppy, rangey trade and markets will be more inclined to fade USD rallies."

14:54 CAD: Pivot around 1.42 extends ahead of Retail Sales, Macklem – Scotiabank
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is a very moderate loser on the day, down a little more than 0.1%.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is a very moderate loser on the day, down a little more than 0.1%. The CAD continues to track the broader trend in the USD and will likely continue to do so for now, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. CAD is trading marginally lower "Today’s Retail Sales data may add a little positive momentum to the CAD; sales are expected to rise 1.6% in December (per the Statcan flash estimate) but most interest is likely to fall on BoC Governor Macklem’s speech on 'trade friction, structural change and monetary policy' (12.30ET) which will give a little more insight into how the Bank is framing the policy outlook amid heightened trade tensions. There will be a Q&A session after his comments and media availability after the event." "Markets have priced out much of the near-term easing risk that developed around the early February tariff threat and swaps have pushed out the first expected cut to June/July. Macklem may highlight that volatility and uncertainty are a brake on growth and messaging may stress caution and uncertainty around the outlook. Still, easing policy remains the main risk, in contrast to the more cautious stance of the Fed. The wide/widening policy spread remains a drag on the CAD’s ability to improve significantly for now." "Spot eased fractionally more than I expected yesterday, reaching the 1.4170 area, but the USD continues to consolidate around the 1.42 point essentially. Support can be refined to 1.4145/50 (100-day MA and last week’s low) ahead of major retracement support at 1.4107 (50% retracement of the USD’s 1.34/1.48 rally). Resistance remains 1.4250/55."

14:36 US Dollar pushes back against the latest decline on Friday
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, pushes back on its recent decline and trades slightly below 107.00 at the time of writing on Friday.

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European PMI data revealed a slowdown in business activity ahead of the German election on Sunday. The US Dollar Index (DXY) reverses course and tries to head back to 107.00.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, pushes back on its recent decline and trades slightly below 107.00 at the time of writing on Friday. The Greenback claws back ahead of the United States (US) preliminary Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data release for February. European data released earlier in the day already revealed a further slowdown in the economic activity in Europe. The US economic calendar finally offers some data releases that might move the Greenback. The preliminary S&P Global Services PMI for February will be the main driver this Friday. Expectations are for a small uptick to 53 against 52.9 in the January reading. The University of Michigan will release its Consumer Sentiment Index and Inflation expectations as well for January’s final reading. Daily digest market movers: Does it matter?In the early European trading session, the preliminary Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for February was already released in several European countries. What stood out: French HCOB Services PMI fell further into contraction to 44.5, missing the 48.9 estimate and contracting further from the previous 48.2. European HCOB Services PMI fell to 50.7, missing the 51.5 estimate and below the previous 51.3 reading. German HCOB PMIs beat estimates despite the Services component that came in at 52.2, missing the 52.5 estimate and below the January 52.5 reading. At 14:45 GMT US preliminary S&P Global PMI data for February will be released: The manufacturing sector is expected to tick up to 51.5, coming from 51.2. The services sector should tick up marginally to 53.0, coming from 52.9. The University of Michigan will release its final January reading at 15:00 GMT: The Consumer Sentiment Index should remain stable at 67.8. The 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation index should rise steadily by 3.3%. Equities are shooting higher, led by the Chinese semiconductor sector. Chinese technology stocks surged the most in three years, driven by optimism over Alibaba Group earnings. The CME FedWatch tool shows a 47.5% chance that interest rates will remain unchanged at current levels in June. The US 10-year yield trades around 4.49%, slipping lower from its Wednesday’s high of 4.574%.US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Greenback just does not careThe US Dollar Index (DXY) is able to reclaim a little bit of room after another downbeat performance this week. The Euro (EUR) is helping out, with the partial recovery in the DXY index this Friday after some disappointing PMI releases, especially from France. If the US preliminary S&P Global PMI data for February, due this afternoon, shows some resilience for the country’s activity, the DXY could quickly be back up at 107.00. On the upside, the previous support at 107.35 has now turned into a firm resistance. Further up, the 55-day SMA at 107.96 must be regained before reclaiming 108.00. On the downside, 106.60 (100-day SMA) and 106.52 (April 16, 2024, high) have acted as an alert for buyers to step in and push the DXY back up. Further down, 105.89 (resistance in June 2024) will still hold as the next firm support level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum indicator in the daily chart still has not touched the oversold barrier. Therefore, the 200-day SMA at 104.98 could be a possible outcome if a firm catalyst emerges. US Dollar Index: Daily Chart US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

14:00 Mexico Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) meets forecasts (-0.6%) in 4Q
Mexico Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) meets forecasts (-0.6%) in 4Q

14:00 Mexico Gross Domestic Product (YoY) below expectations (0.6%) in 4Q: Actual (0.5%)
Mexico Gross Domestic Product (YoY) below expectations (0.6%) in 4Q: Actual (0.5%)

13:45 European natural gas and power prices drop – Danske Bank
European natural gas and power prices have dropped back over the past week despite a cold spell adding to heating demand in Northern Europe, Danske Bank's FX analyst Mohamad Al-Saraf reports.

European natural gas and power prices have dropped back over the past week despite a cold spell adding to heating demand in Northern Europe, Danske Bank's FX analyst Mohamad Al-Saraf reports. Gas prices to remain elevated throughout the year "Wind turbines have been producing recently, which has helped balance the European energy market. Another reason could be continued draw on natural gas stocks to cover the additional demand. The drawback is depleted stocks that are now only 43% full and 20pp. below the level from the same time last year - a factor that will likely keep prices elevated throughout the year."

13:43 JPY emerges as the top performer in the G10 space – Danske Bank
USD/JPY has been steadily declining this year, with JPY emerging as the top performer in the G10 space.

USD/JPY has been steadily declining this year, with JPY emerging as the top performer in the G10 space. USD/JPY is trading not far from new year-to-date lows just above the 150 mark, Danske Bank's FX analyst Mohamad Al-Saraf reports. USD/JPY is trading not far from new year-to-date lows "While US yields have remained largely flat YTD, positive macro surprises in Japan have pushed the 10-year JGB yield up by approximately 35bp so far this year." "Recent GDP and wage data in Japan have reinforced the case for another rate hike this year, with the next fully priced hike expected by September and a total of 36bp in hikes priced for the full year." "We believe the next hike could come before the September meeting, and we also see room for an additional hike this year, which would bring the policy rate to 1.00% - a view that markets have increasingly aligned with. We remain short USD/JPY initiated on 13 January."

13:39 NZD largely unphased by the RBNZ comments – BBH
Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Chief Economist Paul Conway reiterated the bank’s policy outlook , BBH's FX analysts report.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Chief Economist Paul Conway reiterated the bank’s policy outlook , BBH's FX analysts report. Weakness in NZD has already helped boost exports "NZD was largely unphased by the comments. Conway highlighted that the RBNZ’s updated Official Cash Rate (OCR) forecast implied another 75bps of easing over the next year while stressing that taking the OCR below neutral (around 3%) is 'not our central projection"." "Conway added that 'the lower kiwi dollar is part of the reason we’re predicting growth to return over 2025 or from the end of 2024.' In fact, past weakness in NZD has already helped boost exports and shrink New Zealand’s merchandise trade deficit. The annual trade deficit narrowed to more than a three-year low at -NZ$7.2bn in January vs. -NZ$7.8bn in December."

13:34 USD/CNH: Expected to trade between 7.2300 and 7.2580 – UOB Group
US Dollar (USD) is expected to trade between 7.2300 and 7.2580 vs Chinese Yuan (CNH).

US Dollar (USD) is expected to trade between 7.2300 and 7.2580 vs Chinese Yuan (CNH). In the longer run, to continue to decline, USD must break and remain below 7.2300, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. USD must break and remain below 7.230 to continue to decline 24-HOUR VIEW: "We did not anticipate USD to plunge to a low of 7.2314 yesterday (we were expecting range trading). The steep selloff seems excessive, and USD is unlikely to decline much further. Today, we expect USD to trade between 7.2300 and 7.2580." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "On Monday (17 Feb, spot at 7.2600), we highlighted that 'the increase in downward momentum suggests USD could decline the major support level at 7.2300.' After USD rebounded, we indicated yesterday (20 Feb, spot at 7.2850) that “a breach of 7.2960 (‘strong resistance’ level), we indicate that USD is not declining further.” USD subsequently sold off sharply, almost reaching 7.2300 (low has been 7.2314). While we continue to expect USD to decline, it must break and remain below 7.2300 before further weakness is likely. The likelihood of USD breaking clearly below 7.2300 will remain intact as long as 7.2800 (‘strong resistance’ level previously at 7.2960) is not breached. Looking ahead, the next level to watch below 7.2300 is 7.2100."

13:31 AUD: RBA remains cautious about prospects for further policy easing – BBH
AUD is supported as markets continue to imply a shallow RBA easing cycle (roughly 50bps of easing over the next 12 months), BBH's FX analysts report.

AUD is supported as markets continue to imply a shallow RBA easing cycle (roughly 50bps of easing over the next 12 months), BBH's FX analysts report. More strength in the economy can delay or derail the disinflation process "RBA Governor Michele Bullock stressed again that 'the Board remains cautious about prospects for further policy easing.' Bullock noted that strong employment growth could be 'signaling a bit more strength in the economy, which could delay or derail the disinflation process.'" "Supporting the RBA’s cautious guidance, Australia’s composite PMI improved to a six-month high at 51.2 vs. 51.1 in January."

13:30 India Bank Loan Growth declined to 11.3% in February 3 from previous 11.4%
India Bank Loan Growth declined to 11.3% in February 3 from previous 11.4%

13:30 India FX Reserves, USD declined to $635.72B in February 10 from previous $638.26B
India FX Reserves, USD declined to $635.72B in February 10 from previous $638.26B

13:28 USD/JPY: Expected to trade in a 149.20/150.55 range – UOB Group
US Dollar (USD) is expected to trade in a 149.20/150.55 range vs Japanese Yen (JPY).

US Dollar (USD) is expected to trade in a 149.20/150.55 range vs Japanese Yen (JPY). In the longer run, USD is likely to decline further; the significant support at 148.63 may not come into view so soon, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. USD is likely to decline further 24-HOUR VIEW: "When USD was at 151.30 yesterday, we noted 'an increase in momentum.' We highlighted that USD 'could drop below 151.00, but it remains to be seen if it can maintain a foothold below this level.' We added, 'the next support at 150.40 is unlikely to come under threat.' However, USD not only broke below 150.40 but also dropped further to 149.37.USD closed lower by a whopping 1.21% at 149.63. The outsized decline appears to be overdone, and USD is unlikely to decline much further. Today, we expect USD to trade in a 149.20/150.55 range." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "In our most recent narrative from Tuesday (18 Feb, spot at 151.45), we indicated that 'there has been a tentative buildup in downward momentum, but USD must break and remain below 151.00 before further weakness can be expected.' Yesterday, USD dropped decisively below 151.00 and staged a sharp and swift selloff that sent it to a low of 149.37. While USD is likely to decline further, short-term conditions are deeply oversold, and the significant support at 148.63 may not come into view so soon. The downside risk will remain intact as long as 151.80 (‘strong resistance’ level was at 152.30 yesterday) is not breached."

13:11 GBP: BoE to cut 50bps over the next 12 months– BBH
GBP is firmer after UK January retail sales growth overshot expectations , BBH's FX analysts report.

GBP is firmer after UK January retail sales growth overshot expectations , BBH's FX analysts report. Near-term stagflation backdrop which is an ongoing drag on GBP "Retail sales volumes increased by 1.7% m/m (consensus: 0.5%) following a decline of -0.6% in December (revised from -0.3%). Excluding automotive fuel, retail sales volumes surged 2.1 % m/m (consensus: 0.9%) vs. -0.9% in December (revised from -0.6%)." "The details were less impressive and suggests underlying consumer spending activity remains subdued. Food stores sales volumes accounted for the bulk of the pick-up in retail sales. Over the month, food stores sales volumes rose by 5.6%, the largest rise since March 2020, while non-food stores fell -1.3%." "Markets still imply a total of 50bps of BOE policy rate cuts over the next 12 months. But the BOE’s job is complicated by the UK’s near-term stagflation backdrop which is an ongoing drag on GBP."

13:05 USD/CAD Price Forecast: Recovers to near 1.4200
The USD/CAD pair gains to near the key resistance of 1.4200 in European trading hours on Friday.

13:00 NZD/USD: Unlikely to reach 0.5790 today – UOB Group
Scope for New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to rise further, but it is unlikely to reach 0.5790 today.

Scope for New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to rise further, but it is unlikely to reach 0.5790 today. In the longer run, boost in momentum suggests the major resistance at 0.5790 is back in sight, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Major resistance at 0.5790 is back in sight 24-HOUR VIEW: "Following NZD choppy price action two days ago, we indicated yesterday that 'the outlook is mixed.' We expected NZD to 'trade in a 0.5675/0.5725 range.' However, NZD soared to 0.5767, closing sharply higher by 1.02% at 0.5763. The sharp and swift rise appears overdone, and while there is scope for NZD to rise further, it is unlikely to reach 0.5790 today. Support is at 0.5745; a breach of 0.5730 would indicate that the current strong upward pressure has eased." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We turned positive in NZD on Monday (17 Feb, spot at 0.5730), indicating that 'the price action suggests further NZD strength, potentially to 0.5790.' Yesterday (20 Feb, spot at 0.5700), we noted that 'upward momentum has slowed, and a breach of 0.5675 (‘strong support’ level) would indicate 0.5790 is not coming into view.' NZD subsequently soared to 0.5767. The slowing momentum received a boost, and the major resistance at 0.5790 is back in sight. On the downside, the ‘strong support’ level has moved higher to 0.5715 from 0.5675."

12:56 USD/JPY: Technical rebound; fade rallies – OCBC
USD/JPY fell to a low of 149.29 this morning before rebounding to above 150 on Governor Ueda’s comments.

USD/JPY fell to a low of 149.29 this morning before rebounding to above 150 on Governor Ueda’s comments. Markets were looking out for clues from Ueda with regards to the rise in JGB yields. Takata's remarks earlier this week stated that there was no outright discomfort with the rise as yields moving higher is in line with the market’s view of the economy. USD/JPY was last seen at 150.35 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Daily momentum is mild bearish "However, Ueda's comments (this morning) on buying bonds nimbly if yields rise sharply serves as a reminder that BoJ is watching the markets closely and that policymakers can step in if there is any 'excessive volatility' in the bond space. He also said that yields reflect economic recovery, rising price trend – consistent with Takata’s earlier comments. Ueda also reiterated that BoJ will raise rates if economic conditions improve as expected." "USD/JPY's mover higher this morning was more likely a case of knee-jerk technical rebound after the recent >3% drop. Further rebound not ruled out in the near term but more broadly, the direction of travel remains skewed to the downside as BoJ policy normalisation remains on track amid prospects of wage growth and broadened services inflation. Core CPI (this morning) also came in higher than expected at 3.2% (vs. 3.1% expected)." "Daily momentum is mild bearish while RSI rose. Consolidation likely. Support at 150, 149.20 (50% fibo). Resistance at 151, 151.50 (38.2% fibo retracement of Sep low to Jan high) and 152.60 (200 DMA). That said, we still caution that Trump’s tariff threat remains a risk to watch, and that JPY may potentially come under pressure if tariffs hit Japanese goods."

12:51 JPY: Inflation endorses hawkish sentiment – ING
The Japanese Yen (JPY) has had a stellar week, ING’s FX analysts Francesco Pesole notes.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) has had a stellar week, ING’s FX analysts Francesco Pesole notes. JPY remains broadly attractive in the crosses "Along with the combined effect of softer USD and safe-haven flows into the JPY, Japanese inflation data overnight reinforced growing hawkish sentiment on the Bank of Japan. Headline CPI accelerated to 4.0% as expected in January and core was slightly hotter than expected at 3.2%." "The OIS pricing for December is 37bp of BoJ hikes, but only 15bp by June. We expect the next 25bp move already in May followed by another in October." "We are a bit reluctant to call for another major leg lower in USD/JPY after the break below 150.0, largely on the back of our rates team bearish call on Treasuries and our expectations for a stronger dollar. However, the JPY remains broadly attractive in the crosses, and we believe there is a more convincing bearish story for EUR/JPY."

12:45 AUD/USD can advance further, potentially reaching 0.6455 – UOB Group
Room for Australian Dollar (AUD) to advance to 0.6425 vs US Dollar (USD) before levelling off; 0.6455 is likely out of reach for now.

Room for Australian Dollar (AUD) to advance to 0.6425 vs US Dollar (USD) before levelling off; 0.6455 is likely out of reach for now. In the longer run, AUD could advance further, potentially reaching 0.6455, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Below 0.6345, bias can turn to the downside 24-HOUR VIEW: "Yesterday, we highlighted that AUD 'could edge lower but is unlikely to break below 0.6305.' We were incorrect, as AUD soared and closed sharply higher by 0.88% (0.6402). While the rapid rise appears excessive, there is room for AUD to advance to 0.6425 before levelling off. The major resistance at 0.6455 is likely out of reach for now. On the downside, any pullback is likely to remain above 0.6365 (minor support is at 0.6380)." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We have held a positive AUD view since early this month (as annotated in the chart below). After AUD struggled to extend its gains, we highlighted yesterday (20 Feb, spot at 0.6345) that 'upward momentum is slowing, and a breach of 0.6305 (‘strong support’ level) would indicate AUD is likely to trade in a range instead of advancing.' We did not quite expect AUD to surge and almost reached the technical target at 0.6410 (high has been 0.6404). The sharp increase in upward momentum indicates AUD could advance further, potentially reaching 0.6450. We will maintain our view as long as 0.6345 (‘strong support’ level previously at 0.6305) is not breached."

12:40 USD: A major correction on souring US sentiment – ING
FX markets moved quite hectically yesterday, with the dollar giving up its weekly gains in a round of heavy positioning readjustment.

FX markets moved quite hectically yesterday, with the dollar giving up its weekly gains in a round of heavy positioning readjustment. There was a mix of triggers for the dollar correction: US President Donald Trump opened up the prospect of a US-China trade deal, US data came in softer than expected, US equities underperformed again after disappointing Walmart earnings, and the US curve flattened on the back of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's recent comments, ING’s FX analysts Francesco Pesole notes. Market focus to return to the tariff story "The first of these factors – hopes of US-China trade de-escalation – is in theory the most important for FX, but in practice Trump’s comments on trade are weighed more carefully now. Bessent will hold a first call with Chinese officials today. Direct communication with trading partners has so far led to some constructive comments by the new US administration, so we could easily see some more positive headlines on the topic today." "Yesterday’s move in the dollar was in our view more a function of souring domestic US sentiment. Walmart’s disappointing earnings report included a more subdued tone on consumer spending, even before taking the tariff impact into account. And data is coincidentally starting to support those thinking late-2024 optimism was a blip. Yesterday, we saw the US Consumer Board Leading Index resuming its decline in January following a surprise retail sales drop for the same month." "The dollar may be playing a slightly more forward-looking role than rates at this stage; after all, the FX market has been granted more freedom to dislocate from traditional rate correlations as Trump introduced new layers of uncertainty. The bar for a negative USD reaction to data is not high, and we admit the path to dollar re-appreciation can be bumpy. Ultimately, we expect the focus to return to the tariff story. We therefore see mostly upside risks to the dollar from this point."

12:17 EUR/USD falls after flash Eurozone PMI data
EUR/USD slides to near 1.0470 in Friday’s European session.

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The major currency pair weakens after the release of the Hamburg Commercial Bank's (HCOB) preliminary Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for February for the Eurozone and its major nations. The Eurozone HCOB PMI report, compiled by S&P Global, showed that overall business activity expanded at a steady pace but slower than expected. The Composite PMI read 50.2 against estimates of 50.5. The report showed that the Manufacturing PMI continued to contract. However, the pace at which the economic data declined was slower than estimates and the former reading. Meanwhile, activities in the services sector expanded. The pace at which the data advanced was surprisingly slower than the prior release. “Economic output in the Eurozone is barely moving at all. The somewhat milder recession in the manufacturing sector is only just being overcompensated by the barely noticeable growth in the services sector. There is certainly hope for a German government that will be able to act after the elections, which should also provide a positive impetus for the eurozone as a whole. However, this is offset by a relatively unstable situation in France and a US customs policy that is spreading uncertainty. These figures, therefore, do not yet point to a recovery in the eurozone.” Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at HCOB, said. A steady growth in the Eurozone PMI data is unlikely to provide relief to European Central Bank (ECB) officials, who have been worried about upside risks to economic growth. Traders have fully priced in three more interest rate cuts by the ECB this year. The ECB also reduced its Deposit Facility rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.75% last month. In today’s session, investors will also focus on the flash United States (US) S&P Global PMI data for February, which will be published at 14:45 GMT. Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD faces pressure as US Dollar strives for firm footing EUR/USD struggles to hold Thursday’s gains near the psychological level of 1.0500 as the US Dollar (USD) strives to gain ground after posting a fresh Year-to-Date (YTD) low, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) rising to 106.65 from 106.30. On Thursday, the Greenback faced a sharp sell-off as market mood improved. Investors expect United States (US) President Donald Trump’s tariffs agenda will not be much more terrifying than the market had anticipated. Till now, President Trump has imposed 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum, 10% on all imports from China, and has threatened to introduce reciprocal tariffs, with a 25% levy on automobiles, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals by April. Market participants had anticipated that Trump would force tariffs soon after returning to the White House. The ambiguity surrounding President Trump’s tariff policies appears to have bought time for US trading partners to negotiate a deal with him, potentially limiting the impact of tariffs on their economies. On Thursday, European Union (EU) trade chief Maros Sefcovic said the US has shown some willingness to mutually reduce tariffs. Sefcovic’s comments came after having a long meeting with Trump's top trade officials. He added that his number one priority is to avoid economic pain for both nations. Apart from Trump’s tariff agenda, growing optimism over the Russia-Ukraine truce has also weighed on the US Dollar. President Trump has agreed to hold more talks with Russia, including Ukraine and Europe, to end the war. On Thursday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the President is committed to ending the war “quickly” and added that Russia could see some sanctions relief for negotiating an end to its war with Ukraine. On the monetary policy front, Federal Reserve (Fed) officials have been guiding a restrictive monetary policy stance amid concerns over upside risks to inflation due to Trump’s economic agenda. Technical Analysis: EUR/USD stays above 50-day EMAEUR/USD falls slightly to near 1.0470 in European trading hours on Friday after revisiting the three-week high of 1.0500 on Thursday. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) continues to offer support to the major currency pair around 1.0436. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) struggles to break above 60.00. A bullish momentum would activate if the RSI (14) manages to sustain above that level. Looking down, the February 10 low of 1.0285 will act as the major support zone for the pair. Conversely, the December 6 high of 1.0630 will be the key barrier for the Euro bulls. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

12:16 DXY: Break below 100-DMA may open room for further downside – OCBC
US Dollar (USD) fell overnight as UST yields retreated while US equities slipped.

US Dollar (USD) fell overnight as UST yields retreated while US equities slipped. US Treasury Secretary Bessent told Bloomberg TV in an interview that any move to boost the share of longer-term treasuries in government debt issuance is some ways off, given elevated inflation and Fed’s QT. DXY was last seen at 106.68, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Daily momentum is bearish "On Fedspeaks, Bostic said that he expects that Fed will lower rates twice in 2025 though uncertainty around that projection has risen. Earlier during Asia time yesterday, Trump’s remark that a 'new trade deal with China is possible' also weighed on USD/AxJs. Elsewhere, US exceptionalism (US equities over MSCI world) has been easing, albeit from elevated levels amidst chatters of rotation into Chinese equities." "Fading US exceptionalism can weigh on USD, especially if the rest of the world still holds up. Daily momentum is bearish while RSI is near oversold conditions. Key support here at 106.30/40 levels (100 DMA, 38.2% fibo retracement of Oct low to Jan high). Decisive break here may open room for further downside towards 105.50, 105.20 levels (50% fibo). Resistance at 107, 107.50/80 levels (23.6% fibo, 21 DMA) and 108 (50 DMA)." "Day ahead to watch prelim PMIs, Uni of Michigan sentiment and existing home sales. Weaker print can weigh on USD."

12:13 Gold drops over 1% from Thursday’s all-time high
Gold’s price (XAU/USD) slides over 1% lower from its Thursday all-time high of $2,954 and trades around $2,925 at the time of writing on Friday.

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The Trump administration puts lifting trade bans against Russia on the table. Traders are mulling the upcoming US preliminary S&P PMI data for February. Gold’s price (XAU/USD) slides over 1% lower from its Thursday all-time high of $2,954 and trades around $2,925 at the time of writing on Friday. The move comes ahead of the United States (US) preliminary Purchase Managers Index (PMI) reading for February and after the US President Trump administration commented on the possibility of lifting sanctions against Russia. Meanwhile, S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB) data showed that business activity in the services sector declined in February in France, Germany and the overall Eurozone, with the French preliminary Services PMI data falling further into contraction to 44.5, missing the 48.9 estimate and contracting further from the previous 48.2. Now, all eyes will be on the US preliminary S&P Global PMI data for February. The services sector will be the leading indicator, expected to tick up to 53.0 from 52.9 in January. The focus will move to Germany this weekend for the general election, being held on Sunday and where the far-right party Alternative for Germany(AfD), which enjoys great participation from Elon Musk, could be up for a landslide victory. Daily digest market movers: On the tableThe US Trump administration signaled that sanctions relief for Russia could be on the table in talks over the war in Ukraine as US President Donald Trump wants to have a quick resolution for the conflict, Bloomberg reports. Shares from Chinese Laopu Gold Co. Ltd, a company that manufactures and sells jewelry, rose as much as 21% to a record high after its net profits more than tripled this year, bucking a slowdown in luxury spending, Reuters reports. South African company Sibanye Stillwater Ltd.’s full-year loss narrowed after higher Gold prices offset low Palladium rates that weighed on the company’s US mining operations. The loss came in at $398 million for 2024, Bloomberg data reports.Technical Analysis: Monday’s startAll eyes are on Germany this weekend as people head to the voting booths for a new government. Although this might not directly impact Gold’s price, it could see a more harsh or softening stance from US President Trump on Europe in the grander scheme of things. The market reaction on Monday will be interesting. The first level to hold on Friday comes in at the S1 support at $2,923. Further down, the S2 support stands at $2,908. On the upside, a big catalyst would be needed to see Gold completely recover its incurred daily losses. The Pivot Point at $2,939 is the first level to regain, followed by the R1 resistance and the all-time high converging at $2,954. From there, the R2 resistance at $2,969 is next to watch before looking ahead again at $3,000.XAU/USD: Daily Chart Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

11:59 GBP/USD: Boost in momentum indicates further GBP strength to 1.2730 – UOB Group
Impulsive momentum could push Pound Sterling (GBP) higher vs US Dollar (USD); overbought conditions suggest 1.2730 could be just out of reach for now.

Impulsive momentum could push Pound Sterling (GBP) higher vs US Dollar (USD); overbought conditions suggest 1.2730 could be just out of reach for now. In the longer run, boost in momentum indicates further GBP strength to 1.2730, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Impulsive momentum can push GBP higher 24-HOUR VIEW: "Our view for GBP to trade sideways yesterday was incorrect. Instead of trading sideways, GBP surged to a high of 1.2671 before closing on a strong note at 1.2668 (+0.66%). Although the rapid rise is deeply overbought, the current impulsive momentum could continue to push GBP higher. That said, the major resistance at 1.2730 could be just out of reach for now. On the downside, support levels are at 1.2645 and 1.2620." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We turned positive in GBP one week on 14 Feb when it was at 1.2560. After GBP rose to 1.2641 and pulled back sharply, we indicated yesterday (20 Feb, spot at 1.2585) that 'upward momentum is beginning to slow, but only a breach of 1.2525 (‘strong support’ level) would mean that GBP is not strengthening further.' GBP subsequently took off and surged to a high of 1.2671. The boost in momentum indicates further GBP strength to 1.2730. On the downside, the ‘strong support’ level has moved higher to 1.2580 from 1.2525."

11:52 EUR/USD: German elections Sunday – OCBC
As of 17 Feb, Politico’s poll of polls shows CDU/CSU leading at 30%, AfD at 21%, SPD at 16% and Greens at 13%, while other smaller parties are in the region of 5% or so.

As of 17 Feb, Politico’s poll of polls shows CDU/CSU leading at 30%, AfD at 21%, SPD at 16% and Greens at 13%, while other smaller parties are in the region of 5% or so. EUR/USD drifted higher amid broad US Dollar (USD) pullback. Pair was last seen at 1.0469 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Bullish momentum on daily chart intact "This suggests that none of the parties can secure an absolute majority, meaning a coalition will need to be formed. The most likely coalition would have been the union (CDU/CSU) with SPD but Monday evening’s TV show in Berlin saw both leaders Merz (from CDU/CSU) and Scholz from SPD ruled out serving together in the same cabinet. Hence, government formation may take a while and is likely to involve a grand coalition between CDU/CSU and a few other smaller parties." "On recent ECBspeaks, Makhlouf warned that the disinflation process is subjected to a very high degree of uncertainty surrounding the outlook while Schnabel said that they are getting closer to the point where the ECB may have to pause or halt rate cuts. She added that officials should discuss at their March meeting the possibility of removing language from their post-decision statement that monetary policy is still restraining the euro-zone economy." "EUR drifted higher amid broad USD pullback. Bullish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI rose. Resistance at 1.0540/70 levels (100 DMA, 38.2% fibo retracement of Sep high to Jan low). Break out puts next resistance at 1.0620, 1.07 (50% fibo). Support at 1.0420 (21 DMA, 23.6% fibo), 1.0390 (50 DMA)."

11:50 EUR/JPY surrenders half of intraday gains after steady Eurozone flash PMI
The EUR/JPY pair gives up half of its intraday gains and falls to near 157.50 from the intraday high of 158.23 in European trading hours on Friday.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/JPY surrenders some of its intraday gains and drops to near 157.50 after the release of the flash Eurozone, Germany and France PMI data for January.The Eurozone Composite PMI remained steady at 50.2, lower than expectations of 50.4.The Japanese Yen underperforms amid a decline in demand for safe-haven assets.The EUR/JPY pair gives up half of its intraday gains and falls to near 157.50 from the intraday high of 158.23 in European trading hours on Friday. The asset faces selling pressure after the release of the preliminary HCOB Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data of the Eurozone and its major nations Germany and France. The PMIs report showed that the French Composite PMI contracted for the straight sixth month in February. While the overall business activity expanded at a faster-than-expected pace in Germany, which offered relief to the whole continent. The Eurozone Composite PMI came in at 50.2, similar to its prior release but lower than estimates of 50.4. Activities in the manufacturing sector contracted but at a slower pace. However, the service sector activity expanded but at a slower pace. Earlier in the day, the Euro (EUR) was underperforming its risky peers in a risk-on market mood. The outlook of the Euro has already been vulnerable as traders have fully priced in three more interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) this year. ECB dovish bets are based on increasing confidence that the Eurozone inflation will sustainably return to the 2% target this year. Euro PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.31% 0.21% 0.51% 0.16% 0.30% 0.16% 0.11% EUR -0.31% -0.11% 0.19% -0.16% -0.02% -0.16% -0.20% GBP -0.21% 0.11% 0.32% -0.05% 0.09% -0.05% -0.10% JPY -0.51% -0.19% -0.32% -0.32% -0.20% -0.35% -0.39% CAD -0.16% 0.16% 0.05% 0.32% 0.13% 0.00% -0.05% AUD -0.30% 0.02% -0.09% 0.20% -0.13% -0.13% -0.19% NZD -0.16% 0.16% 0.05% 0.35% -0.00% 0.13% -0.05% CHF -0.11% 0.20% 0.10% 0.39% 0.05% 0.19% 0.05% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).ECB officials have also been worried about deepening risks of inflation undershooting the central bank’s target of 2%. Growing risks to inflation remaining persistently lower have been stemmed from weak economic outlook, partly by slowdown in domestic consumption and fears of potential tariffs from the United States (US). Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens across the board as its safe-haven appeal has diminished. However, its outlook has strengthened as hotter-than-expected National Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for January has increased market expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates again this year. Japan’s headline CPI came in at 4%, higher than 3.6% reading in December. This is the highest reading seen since January 2023. National CPI excluding Fresh Food, which is closely tracked by BoJ officials, rose at a faster-than-expected pace of 3.2%. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

11:47 EUR: Major German parties pledge to keep the far right out of any coalition – ING
The euro has benefited from the unwinding of US Dollar (USD) longs, but remains generally unattractive in the crosses, ING’s FX analysts Francesco Pesole notes.

The euro has benefited from the unwinding of US Dollar (USD) longs, but remains generally unattractive in the crosses, ING’s FX analysts Francesco Pesole notes. EUR/USD to trade with a downside bias "The big event for the euro is obviously Sunday’s German election. Polls currently place CDU/CSU in the lead with around 30%, followed by the far-right AfD at 20% and the outgoing SPD at 15%. Markets are not pricing in much risk related to a stronger result by the AfD, as other major parties have pledged to keep the far right out of any coalition." "We could still see markets finding good value in closing EUR/USD positions at this higher level (compared to the past few weeks) ahead of the German risk event. Our view remains bearish on EUR/USD."

11:42 EUR/USD: Has room to extend to 1.0530 – UOB Group
Impulsive advance has room to extend to 1.0530; a clear break above this level appears unlikely.

Impulsive advance has room to extend to 1.0530; a clear break above this level appears unlikely. In the longer run, rejuvenated upward momentum suggests Euro (EUR) could continue to advance vs US Dollar (USD); the levels to monitor are 1.0530 and 1.0560, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. EUR can continue to advance 1.0530 and 1.0560 24-HOUR VIEW: "Two days ago, EUR fell to a low of 1.0400. Yesterday, when EUR was at 1.0425, we indicated that 'despite the decline, there has been no significant increase in downward momentum,' and we held the view that it 'is likely to trade in a 1.0395/1.0455 range.' Instead of trading in a range, EUR jumped and closed higher by 0.76% (1.0500). While deeply overbought, the impulsive advance has room to extend to 1.0530. Given the overbought conditions, a clear break above this level appears unlikely. To sustain the momentum, EUR must not break below 1.0455 (minor support is at 1.0475)." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We revised our view from positive to neutral yesterday (20 Feb, spot at 1.0425), indicating that EUR 'appears to have moved into a range trading phase, and it is likely to trade between 1.0350 and 1.0500 for the time being.' We did not expect the subsequent strong surge that reached a high of 1.0503. Upward momentum has been rejuvenated, suggesting EUR could continue to advance. That said, there are a pair of major resistance levels at 1.0530 and 1.0560. Overall, only a breach of 1.0425 would invalidate our view."

11:32 UK Preliminary Services PMI unexpectedly rises to 51.1 in February vs. 50.8 expected
The seasonally adjusted S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) unexpectedly declined to 46.4 in February from 48.3 in January.

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI below forecasts (48.4) in February: Actual (46.4)
United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI below forecasts (48.4) in February: Actual (46.4)

11:30 Silver price today: Silver broadly unchanged, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) broadly unchanged on Friday, according to FXStreet data.

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI meets expectations (50.5) in February
United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI meets expectations (50.5) in February

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI came in at 51.1, above expectations (50.8) in February
United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI came in at 51.1, above expectations (50.8) in February

11:01 Eurozone Preliminary Manufacturing PMI advances to 47.3 in February vs. 47 expected
The Eurozone manufacturing sector improved but remained in contraction while the services sector activity eased in February, according to the data from the HCOB's latest Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Survey published on Friday.

Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rose to 47.3 in February, beating 47 estimate.Bloc’s Services PMI dropped to 50.7 in February vs. 51.5 forecast.EUR/USD keeps losses below 1.0500 after German, Eurozone PMI data. The Eurozone manufacturing sector improved but remained in contraction while the services sector activity eased in February, according to the data from the HCOB's latest Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Survey published on Friday.

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI came in at 47.3, above expectations (47) in February
Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI came in at 47.3, above expectations (47) in February

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI came in at 50.2, below expectations (50.5) in February
Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI came in at 50.2, below expectations (50.5) in February

11:00 Italy Consumer Price Index (YoY) meets forecasts (1.5%) in January
Italy Consumer Price Index (YoY) meets forecasts (1.5%) in January

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Services PMI below expectations (51.5) in February: Actual (50.7)
Eurozone HCOB Services PMI below expectations (51.5) in February: Actual (50.7)

11:00 Italy Consumer Price Index (MoM) meets expectations (0.6%) in January
Italy Consumer Price Index (MoM) meets expectations (0.6%) in January

11:00 Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY) in line with expectations (1.7%) in January
Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY) in line with expectations (1.7%) in January

11:00 Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM) came in at -0.8%, below expectations (-0.7%) in January
Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM) came in at -0.8%, below expectations (-0.7%) in January

11:00 S&P Global PMIs expected to confirm US economic expansion in February
S&P Global is set to release its early estimates for the United States (US) Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMIs) for February this Friday.

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50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The S&P Global preliminary PMIs for February are likely to show little variation from the January final readings.The Federal Reserve may resume its easing cycle in July. EUR/USD’s near-term outlook remains negative ahead of PMIs. S&P Global is set to release its early estimates for the United States (US) Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMIs) for February this Friday. These PMIs are based on surveys of top private-sector executives and offer a snapshot of the overall economic health by looking at key factors like GDP, inflation, exports, capacity use, employment, and inventories. There are three indexes to watch: the Manufacturing PMI, the Services PMI, and the Composite PMI—a weighted average of the two. A reading above 50 signals that economic activity is expanding, while a figure below 50 indicates contraction. Because these figures are published monthly, well before many other official stats, they provide an early look at how the economy is performing. In January, the Composite PMI came in at 52.7, the lowest level since April 2024, although still indicating a solid performance in business activity. According to S&P Global, “A renewed increase in manufacturing production coincided with a slower rise in services activity. The rate of expansion in new business also eased in January, but the pace of job creation quickened and was the strongest since June 2022. Meanwhile, both input costs and output prices rose at faster rates”. What can we expect from the next S&P Global PMI report? Investors expect the flash Manufacturing PMI to nudge up slightly from 51.2 to 51.5 in February, while the Services PMI is anticipated to rise a bit from 52.9 to 53.0. Even though the manufacturing sector's performance may not be a surprise, this small improvement could ease worries—especially if the Services sector continues to show strong growth. Everyone will be closely watching the surveys’ findings on inflation and employment. After Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s cautious comments about easing policies further in his semiannual testimonies, market expectations now place another rate cut in July. Powell pointed out that there’s no rush to cut rates, thanks to steady economic growth, a solid job market, and inflation that still runs above the 2% target. “We do not need to be in a hurry to adjust policy”, he reiterated. If the Services PMI unexpectedly falls below 50, it could spark a quick selloff of the US Dollar (USD). On the other hand, if the Services PMI stays on track and the Manufacturing PMI rises above 50 into expansion territory, the USD might strengthen against its rivals. Looking ahead, if the PMI surveys reveal rising input costs in the service sector alongside a strong labor market, the idea of a tighter-for-longer Fed might be reinforced. Conversely, softer price pressures and weak private sector job growth could renew hopes for further easing, which might put pressure on the USD. When will the January flash US S&P Global PMIs be released and how could they affect EUR/USD? The S&P Global Manufacturing, Services and Composite PMIs report will be released on Friday at 14:45 GMT and is expected to show US business activity remaining in the expansion territory. Ahead of the release, Pablo Piovano, Senior Analyst at FXStreet, notes: “If bulls manage to regain the initiative, EUR/USD could challenge the February peak of 1.0513 recorded on February 14, which is closely followed by the 2025 high of 1.0532 reached on January 27. Should spot break through this barrier, traders might see a spirited climb toward the December 2024 top of 1.0629 (set on December 6) once the Fibonacci retracement of the September-January decline at 1.0572 is cleared.” “The resurgence of a sustained downward trend, instead, should put the pair en route to revisit the February low of 1.0209 hit on February 3, prior to its 2025 bottom of 1.0176 established on January 13. The breakdown of this level could signal a bearish turn back to the crucial parity zone,” Piovano adds. “The ongoing negative outlook is expected to persist as long as spot trades below its critical 200-day SMA at 1.0743. Further indicators note that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains around the 55 zone, indicating some constructive momentum, although the Average Directional Index (ADX) below 15 denotes a weakening trend,” Piovano concludes. Economic Indicator S&P Global Composite PMI The S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis, is a leading indicator gauging US private-business activity in the manufacturing and services sector. The data is derived from surveys to senior executives. Each response is weighted according to the size of the company and its contribution to total manufacturing or services output accounted for by the sub-sector to which that company belongs. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the private economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the US Dollar (USD). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for USD. Read more. Next release: Fri Feb 21, 2025 14:45 (Prel)Frequency: MonthlyConsensus: -Previous: 52.7Source: S&P Global US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

10:32 German Preliminary Manufacturing PMI jumps to 46.1 in February vs. 45.5 expected
The German manufacturing and services sectors activity improved more-than-expected in February, the preliminary business activity report published by the HCOB survey showed Friday.

Germany’s Manufacturing PMI rises to 46.1 in February vs. 45.5 forecast.Services PMI for the German economy drops to 52.2 in February vs. 52.5 estimated.EUR/USD picks up fresh bids to close in on 1.0500 after upbeat German PMIs.The German manufacturing and services sectors activity improved more-than-expected in February, the preliminary business activity report published by the HCOB survey showed Friday. The HCOB Manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone’s top economy rose 46.1 this month, compared with January’s 45, beating the forecast of 45.5.

10:30 Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI registered at 46.1 above expectations (45.5) in February
Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI registered at 46.1 above expectations (45.5) in February

10:30 Germany HCOB Services PMI registered at 52.2, below expectations (52.5) in February
Germany HCOB Services PMI registered at 52.2, below expectations (52.5) in February

10:30 Germany HCOB Composite PMI registered at 51 above expectations (50.8) in February
Germany HCOB Composite PMI registered at 51 above expectations (50.8) in February

10:15 France HCOB Manufacturing PMI meets forecasts (45.5) in February
France HCOB Manufacturing PMI meets forecasts (45.5) in February

10:15 France HCOB Services PMI registered at 44.5, below expectations (48.9) in February
France HCOB Services PMI registered at 44.5, below expectations (48.9) in February

10:15 France HCOB Composite PMI registered at 44.5, below expectations (48) in February
France HCOB Composite PMI registered at 44.5, below expectations (48) in February

10:06 Pound Sterling advances on robust growth in UK Retail Sales in January
The Pound Sterling (GBP) strengthens against its major peers on Friday after the release of robust United Kingdom (UK) Retail Sales data for January.

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The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that Retail Sales, a key measure of consumer spending, rose at a robust pace of 1.7% in the month after contracting by 0.6% in December, revised lower from -0.3%. Economists expected the consumer spending measure to have grown at a moderate pace of 0.3%. Year-on-year Retail Sales rose by 1%, beating the estimate of 0.6%, but remained lower than the 2.8% growth seen in 12 months to December. Upbeat Retail Sales data is expected to force traders to further pare their bets on the Bank of England (BoE) cutting interest rates again in the March meeting. The BoE's dovish bets were already challenged by a hotter-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for January and strong Average Earnings data in the three months ending December. However, investors are unlikely to become increasingly optimistic about the British currency’s outlook as BoE Governor Andrew Bailey remains concerned over economic prospects this year. Earlier this week, Bailey warned that the economic growth is expected to remain sluggish. In the monetary policy meeting earlier this month, the BoE halved its annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecasts for the year to 0.75%. Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling gains further against US Dollar The Pound Sterling extends its upside to near 1.2680 against the US Dollar (USD) in European trading hours on Friday, the highest level seen in two months. The GBP/USD pair rose sharply on Thursday as the US Dollar weakened amid a risk-on market mood. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is up 0.15% in the day at the press time but remains close to its Year-To-Date (YTD) low of around 106.30. The Greenback remains on the backfoot as its risk premium has diminished, with investors anticipating that United States (US) President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda won’t lead to a significant slowdown in the global economy. Till now, President Trump has imposed 25% tariffs on aluminum and steel and 10% on all imports from China. He has threatened to impose a 25% levy on cars, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals and the introduction of reciprocal tariffs without any detail and timeline. Investors had anticipated that Trump would announce a slew of tariffs soon after returning to the White House in January, based on his comments in the election campaign, which has forced them to believe that Trump’s tariff policies are just a ‘tactic’ to have the upper hand while having negotiations with his allies. The US Dollar struggles to find ground despite Federal Reserve (Fed) officials have been guiding a restrictive monetary policy stance. On Thursday, Fed Governor Adriana Kugler said that central bank should keep borrowing rates “in place” for “some time”, noting the net effect of new economic policies is “highly uncertain” and will depend on the “specifics”. In Friday’s session, investors will focus on the preliminary S&P Global UK/US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for February. Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling refreshes two-month high slightly below 1.2700The Pound Sterling posts a fresh two-month high against the US Dollar near 1.2680 on Friday. The GBP/USD strengthens after breaking above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the end-September high to the mid-January low downtrend, which coincided with the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), around 1.2620. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds above 60.00. The bullish momentum would fizzle out if the RSI (14) fails to sustain above that level. Looking down, the February 11 low of 1.2333 will act as a key support zone for the pair. On the upside, the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1.2767 will act as a key resistance zone. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

10:05 Crude Oil price today: WTI price bearish, according to FXStreet data
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Friday, according to FXStreet data.

09:46 US Dollar Index Price Forecast: Tests 106.50 near descending channel's lower boundary
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against its six major peers, maintains its ground around 106.50 during the early European hours on Friday.

09:45 France Business Climate in Manufacturing above forecasts (96) in February: Actual (97)
France Business Climate in Manufacturing above forecasts (96) in February: Actual (97)

09:15 GBP/JPY jumps above 190.50 after upbeat UK Retail Sales data
The GBP/JPY cross rises to around 190.70 during the early European trading hours on Friday.

09:08 Forex Today: Market focus shifts to February PMI data
Here is what you need to know on Friday, February 21: The action in financial markets quiets down on Friday as investors await preliminary February Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data from Germany, the Eurozone, the UK and the US.

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In the second half of the day, the US economic calendar will also feature Existing Home Sales data for January and several Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers will be delivering speeches heading into the weekend. Following a two-day recovery, the US Dollar (USD) Index came under renewed bearish pressure during the American trading hours on Thursday and dropped to its lowest level in over two months near 106.30. The data from the US showed that the weekly Initial Jobless Claims rose to 219,000 from 214,000. Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield dropped below 4.5%, putting additional weight on the USD's shoulders. Early Friday, the index stays in a consolidation phase at around 106.50. US Dollar PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.01% -0.68% -1.17% 0.00% -0.61% -0.68% -0.08% EUR 0.01% -0.52% -1.20% 0.11% -0.52% -0.58% 0.03% GBP 0.68% 0.52% -0.59% 0.63% 0.05% -0.06% 0.55% JPY 1.17% 1.20% 0.59% 1.18% 0.60% 0.71% 1.07% CAD -0.00% -0.11% -0.63% -1.18% -0.59% -0.69% -0.09% AUD 0.61% 0.52% -0.05% -0.60% 0.59% -0.06% 0.55% NZD 0.68% 0.58% 0.06% -0.71% 0.69% 0.06% 0.61% CHF 0.08% -0.03% -0.55% -1.07% 0.09% -0.55% -0.61% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). In the early trading hours of the Asian session, the data from Japan showed that the National Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Japan increased by 4% on a yearly basis in January, up from 3.6% in December. Commenting on the policy outlook, "more interest rate hikes could come into sight if the price outlook continues to improve, and there might be some unpredictable impact on the economy," Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Friday. After losing more than 1% on Thursday, USD/JPY stages a rebound on Friday and was last seen rising about 0.6% on the day at 150.50. Jibun Bank Composite PMI in Australia edged higher to 51.2 in January from 51.1, suggesting that the private sector's economic activity continued to expand at a modest pace. In the meantime, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock said that they will remain cautious about the prospects for further policy easing. After reaching its highest level since early December above 0.6400, AUD/USD corrects lower toward 0.6380 in the early European session. The UK's Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported on Friday that Retail Sales in the UK rose by 1.7% on a monthly basis in January. This reading followed the 0.6% decrease recorded in December and beat the market expectation of 0.3% by a wide margin. GBP/USD holds its ground in the European morning and trades at a fresh two-month high above 1.2670.EUR/USD benefited from the broad-based USD weakness and rose more than 0.7% on Thursday. The pair fluctuates in a narrow band at around 1.0500 early Friday.Gold reached yet another record-high above $2,950 on Thursday but struggled to preserve its bullish momentum. In the European morning, XAU/USD trades in negative territory near $2,930. US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

09:01 UK Retail Sales jump 1.7% MoM in January vs. 0.3% expected
The United Kingdom (UK) Retail Sales rebounded 1.7% month-on-month (MoM) in January after falling 0.6% in December, the latest data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed Friday.

09:00 United Kingdom Public Sector Net Borrowing below forecasts (£20B) in January: Actual (£-15.442B)
United Kingdom Public Sector Net Borrowing below forecasts (£20B) in January: Actual (£-15.442B)

09:00 United Kingdom Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM) came in at 2.1%, above expectations (0.9%) in January
United Kingdom Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM) came in at 2.1%, above expectations (0.9%) in January

09:00 United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) above expectations (0.6%) in January: Actual (1%)
United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) above expectations (0.6%) in January: Actual (1%)

09:00 United Kingdom Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY) registered at 1.2% above expectations (0.5%) in January
United Kingdom Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY) registered at 1.2% above expectations (0.5%) in January

09:00 United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) above expectations (0.3%) in January: Actual (1.7%)
United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) above expectations (0.3%) in January: Actual (1.7%)

08:46 NZD/USD remains subdued near 0.5750 following Trade Balance data
NZD/USD holds loses following approximately 1% gains registered in the previous session, trading around 0.5760 during the Asian hours.

08:09 FX option expiries for Feb 21 NY cut
FX option expiries for Feb 21 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

FX option expiries for Feb 21 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below. EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.0400 3b 1.0440 1.3b 1.0450 1.4b 1.0485 1b 1.0500 815m GBP/USD: GBP amounts 1.2590 523m USD/JPY: USD amounts 151.00 444m AUD/USD: AUD amounts 0.6425 459m USD/CAD: USD amounts 1.4150 507m 1.4165 628m 1.4170 645m 1.4200 1.1b 1.4250 447m 1.4310 489m

08:07 USD/CHF strengthens above 0.8950 as US PMI data looms
The USD/CHF pair recovers some lost ground around 0.8985 amid a modest rebound in US Dollar (USD) during the early European session on Friday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/CHF rebounds to near 0.8985 in Friday’s early European session. Trump’s trade tariffs and rising geopolitical tensions might boost the CHF and cap the upside for the pair. The advanced US PMI data will be in the spotlight later on Friday. The USD/CHF pair recovers some lost ground around 0.8985 amid a modest rebound in US Dollar (USD) during the early European session on Friday. Investors brace for the preliminary US S&P Global PMI reports, which will be released later on Friday. Also, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Mary Daly and Philip Jefferson are set to speak later on the same day.

Fed officials in January agreed they would need to see inflation ease more before lowering interest rates further. Policymakers are concerned about the impact Trump’s tariffs would have in making that happen, according to meeting minutes released Wednesday.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the bank was not "in a hurry" to cut the interest rate further, given significant uncertainty about where the economy might be headed. Analysts anticipate the US central bank will likely reduce its benchmark interest rate only once in 2025, with a big chance of no rate cuts at all. This, in turn, could lift the USD against the Swiss Franc (CHF).

Trump said on Wednesday he will announce new tariffs within the next month, adding lumber and forest products to previously announced plans to impose duties on imported cars, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. Additionally, hopes for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine seem to have faded in the wake of intensifying Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian Oil pumping stations. Concerns about US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs and ongoing geopolitical tensions should lend support to the safe-haven currency like CHF. Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.

07:55 EUR/GBP remains silent near 0.8300 ahead of key data release from Eurozone, UK
EUR/GBP maintains its position following gains in the previous session, trading around 0.8290 during the Asian hours on Friday.

07:38 AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Fails near descending channel resistance, around mid-96.00s
The AUD/JPY cross builds on the previous day's late bounce from the 95.35-95.30 area, or over a one-week low, and gains strong positive traction during the Asian session on Friday.

07:14 EUR/USD Price Analysis: Remains subdued near 1.0500 within a rising wedge pattern
The EUR/USD pair edges lower after gaining some good profits in the previous session, trading around 1.0500 during the Asian session on Friday.

07:06 India HSBC Composite PMI declined to 57.1 in February from previous 57.7
India HSBC Composite PMI declined to 57.1 in February from previous 57.7

07:06 India HSBC Manufacturing PMI dipped from previous 57.7 to 57.1 in February
India HSBC Manufacturing PMI dipped from previous 57.7 to 57.1 in February

07:06 India HSBC Composite PMI up to 60.6 in February from previous 57.7
India HSBC Composite PMI up to 60.6 in February from previous 57.7

07:06 India HSBC Services PMI increased to 61.1 in February from previous 56.5
India HSBC Services PMI increased to 61.1 in February from previous 56.5

06:43 Gold price eases from record high as overbought conditions prompt profit-taking
Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some sellers in the vicinity of the $2,950 level during the Asian session on Friday and moves away from the all-time peak touched the previous day.

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The underlying USD bearish sentiment might contribute to limiting losses for the XAU/USD pair.Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some sellers in the vicinity of the $2,950 level during the Asian session on Friday and moves away from the all-time peak touched the previous day. The intraday downtick lacks any obvious fundamental catalyst and could be attributed to some profit-taking amid slightly overbought conditions on the daily chart. Any meaningful corrective decline, however, still seems elusive in the wake of worries that US President Donald Trump's tariff plans could trigger a global trade war. This might continue to act as a tailwind for the safe-haven bullion. Furthermore, expectations that Trump's protectionist policies would reignite inflation might continue to underpin the Gold price, which is seen as a hedge against rising prices. Apart from this, geopolitical risks, doubt over US consumer health, and a weaker sentiment surrounding the US Dollar (USD) should contribute to limiting the downside for the precious metal. This, in turn, supports prospects for the emergence of dip-buying at lower levels. Nevertheless, the XAU/USD pair seems poised to register gains for the eighth consecutive week and prolong a two-month-old uptrend. Gold price bulls opt to lighten their positions; trade war fears should continue to lend support The uncertainties surrounding US President Donald Trump's threatened tariffs and their impact on the global economy lifted the safe-haven Gold price to a fresh record high, near the $2,955 region on Thursday. Trump has imposed a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum, and an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports since taking office on January 20, and also plans to announce fresh tariffs over the next month or sooner. Meanwhile, a softer-than-anticipated sales forecast from Walmart raised doubt over underlying economic strength amid worries that Trump's policy moves would boost inflation and undermine consumer spending. Hopes for a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine seem to have faded in the wake of intensifying Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian Oil pumping stations, which could further act as a tailwind for the precious metal. The US Dollar languishes near its lowest level since December 10 amid bets for more interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and might turn out to be another factor that could lend support to the XAU/USD pair. Fed officials, however, remain wary of future interest rate cuts amid still-sticky inflation, which, in turn, prompts some profit-taking around the non-yielding yellow metal amid slightly overbought conditions. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem warned on Thursday that rising inflation expectations combined with the risk of stubborn stagflation could create a double challenge for the US economy. Earlier on Thursday, Fed Board Governor Adriana Kugler said that US inflation still has some way to go to reach the central bank's 2% target and that its path toward that goal continues to be bumpy. In contrast, Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic struck a more dovish tone and sees room for two more rate cuts this year, though noted that much depends on the evolving economic conditions. Traders now look forward to the flash PMI prints for a fresh insight into the global economic health, which, in turn, should provide some impetus to the commodity heading into the weekend. Apart from this, the US economic docket – featuring the release of Existing Home Sales data and the revised Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index – might contribute to producing short-term opportunities. Gold price technical setup supports prospects for the emergence of dip-buying near $2,900From a technical perspective, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains close to the 70 mark and warrants caution for bullish traders. That said, the recent breakout through the $2,928-2,930 horizontal barrier, representing the top boundary of a short-term trading range, suggests that the path of least resistance for the Gold price remains to the upside. Hence, any further slide could be seen as a buying opportunity near the $2,900 mark. This is followed by the $2,880 support, which if broken could drag the XAU/USD to the $2,860-2,855 area en route to the $2,834 zone and eventually to the $2,800 mark. Meanwhile, bullish traders might now wait for some near-term consolidation and some follow-through buying beyond the $2,950-2,955 region before placing fresh bets. Nevertheless, the constructive setup supports prospects for an extension of the recent well-established uptrend witnessed over the past two months or so. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

06:41 EUR/JPY gains traction above 157.50, investors brace for Eurozone/German PMI data
The EUR/JPY cross attracts some buyers to around 157.70 during the Asian trading hours on Friday.

06:36 India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices fell in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

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The price for Gold stood at 8,165.94 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 8,182.63 it cost on Thursday. The price for Gold decreased to INR 95,245.95 per tola from INR 95,440.54 per tola a day earlier. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 8,165.94 10 Grams 81,659.42 Tola 95,245.95 Troy Ounce 253,989.40 FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly. Related newsGold Price Forecast: XAU/USD down but not out ahead of US PMI data Bitcoin underperforms as Gold, S&P 500 reach record high Gold price soars on haven-demand, hits record high Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

06:10 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD holds losses below $33.00 due to improved risk appetite
Silver price (XAG/USD) remains under pressure after gaining in the previous session, trading around $32.90 per troy ounce during Asian trading hours on Friday.

05:11 USD/CAD treads water above 1.4150 ahead of US PMI data
USD/CAD moves little after registering losses in the previous session, trading around 1.4170 during the Asian hours on Friday.

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The pair lost ground as the US Dollar (USD) struggled amid weak jobless claims data and mixed signals from the Federal Reserve (Fed). Traders will keep an eye on the preliminary reading of the US S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for February, which is due later on Friday. US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending February 14 increased to 219,000, surpassing the expected 215,000. Continuing Jobless Claims also rose slightly to 1.869 million, just under the forecast of 1.87 million. Fed Governor Adriana Kugler noted on Thursday that US inflation still has "some way to go" before reaching the 2% target, acknowledging uncertainty ahead, according to Reuters. Meanwhile, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem highlighted the potential risks of stagflation and rising inflation expectations. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against six major currencies, gained ground near 106.50 at the time of writing. However, the DXY faced challenges amid improved market sentiment after US President Donald Trump announced potential progress in trade negotiations with China, easing market concerns over tariffs. However, US President Donald Trump announced plans to impose import tariffs on lumber and forest products next month, which could weigh on the Canadian Dollar (CAD) as Canada remains a leading global producer and exporter. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada (BoC) may rethink cutting rates following the release of January’s CPI data, which showed elevated inflation in Canada. Traders will be closely watching Friday’s Canadian Retail Sales report and a speech by BoC Governor Tiff Macklem for further policy signals. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

05:04 WTI consolidates below mid-$72.00s; seems poised to register gains for the first time in five weeks
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices oscillate in a narrow trading range band during the Asian session on Friday and consolidate gains registered over the past four days.

04:48 GBP/USD remains above 1.2650 near two-month highs
GBP/USD edged lower after hitting a two-month high of 1.2674 on Friday, trading around 1.2670 at the time of writing during the Asian session.

04:40 USD/INR softens ahead of Indian/US PMI releases
The Indian Rupee (INR) gains ground on Friday after reaching a one-week high in the previous session.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Indian Rupee gathers strength in Friday’s Asian session. Significant US Dollar sales and easing concerns on trade tensions underpin the INR. The preliminary Indian and US PMI reports for February will be the highlights later on Friday. The Indian Rupee (INR) gains ground on Friday after reaching a one-week high in the previous session. The massive US Dollar (USD) sales by foreign banks provide some support to the local currency. US President Donald Trump's optimistic comments on a fresh trade deal with China, not only lift the Chinese Yuan but also boost the INR. Any significant depreciation of the Indian Rupee might be limited amid the likely intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).

Nonetheless, Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) outflows and the renewed Greenback demand could weigh on the local currency. The recovery in crude oil prices might also contribute to the INR’s downside as India is the world's third-largest oil consumer.

Traders await the advanced India’s HSBC Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) report for February, which is due later on Friday. On the US docket, the S&P Global PMI, Existing Home Sales and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index report will be released. Also, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Mary Daly and Philip Jefferson are set to speak on the same day. Indian Rupee strengthens amid easing trade tensions India's growth is estimated to slow to 6.4% in 2025 from 6.6% in 2024, as new US tariffs and softening global demand weigh on exports, said Moody's Analytics on Thursday. US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday he will announce fresh tariffs within the next month, adding lumber and forest products to previously announced plans to impose duties on imported cars, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. The US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending February 15 rose to 219,000, compared to the previous week's 214,000 (revised from 213,000), according to the US Department of Labor (DoL) on Thursday. This figure came in above the market consensus of 215K. Fed Board Governor Adriana Kugler said late Thursday that US inflation still has "some way to go" to reach the central bank's 2% target and that its path toward that goal continues to be bumpy. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said the risk of inflation could remain high, adding that he needs confidence that inflation is waning to support more rate cuts. USD/INR bulls take a breather The Indian Rupee trades on a stronger note on the day. The USD/INR pair paints the positive picture on the daily chart, with the price holding above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). However, further consolidation or downside cannot be ruled out as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands below the midline near 48.0.

The immediate resistance level for USD/INR emerges at the 87.00 psychological level. Bullish candlesticks and sustained trading above this level could set its sights on an all-time high near 88.00, en route to 88.50.

On the flip side, if the pair can’t hold the line at 86.35, the low of February 12, a drop toward 86.14, the low of January 27, could be on the cards. The next contention level to watch is 85.65, the low of January 7. Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.

04:34 Japanese Yen retreats sharply from over two-month high against USD
The Japanese Yen (JPY) attracts some sellers on Friday in reaction to comments from Japan's Finance Minister, Katsunobu Kato, saying that higher long-term rates can pressure Japan's fiscal situation.

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The Japanese Yen (JPY) attracts some sellers on Friday in reaction to comments from Japan's Finance Minister, Katsunobu Kato, saying that higher long-term rates can pressure Japan's fiscal situation. This assists the USD/JPY pair to stage a modest bounce from the 149.30-149.25 region, or its lowest level since December 3 touched during the Asian session. However, any meaningful JPY depreciation still seems elusive in the wake of the growing acceptance that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) would hike interest rates further. Hawkish BoJ expectations were reaffirmed by Japan's strong National Consumer Price Index (CPI) print and remain supportive of elevated Japanese government bond (JGB) yields. The resultant narrowing of the rate differential between Japan and other countries should continue to underpin the lower-yielding JPY. Apart from this, the recent US Dollar (USD) fall, amid concerns about the US consumer health and despite bets for an extended pause on rates by the Federal Reserve (Fed), might cap the USD/JPY pair. Japanese Yen drifts lower amid talks of intervention to curb further rise in JGB yields Japan's Finance Minister, Katsunobu Kato, warned this Friday that higher Japanese government bond yields will increase debt-servicing costs, which, in turn, may impact Japan's finances. This overshadows the stronger-than-expected release of Japan's National Consumer Price Index (CPI) and prompts some intraday selling around the Japanese Yen. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda noted that a rise in long-term interest rates will push up corporate funding costs, but also need to take into account how the improving economy will underpin their profits. If markets make abnormal moves, we stand ready to respond nimbly, such as through market operations to smooth market moves, Ueda added further. The latest data released by the Statistics Bureau of Japan showed that the headline National CPI climbed to a two-year high of 4.0% YoY in January from 3.6% in the previous month. Meanwhile, the Core CPI, which excludes volatile fresh food items, grew 3.2% from the previous year, compared to 3.0% recorded in December and touching a 19-month high. Furthermore, a core CPI reading that excludes both fresh food and fuel costs rose 2.5% in January from a year earlier, marking the fastest pace since March 2024. The data underscores rising inflationary pressure in Japan that has drawn hawkish remarks from several BoJ policymakers, which, in turn, should limit any meaningful depreciating move for the JPY. Moreover, expectations that sustained wage gains could spur consumer spending suggest that the BoJ could hike interest rates more aggressively than initially thought. This keeps the benchmark 10-year JGB yield elevated near its highest level since November 2009 and should continue to act as a tailwind for the lower-yielding JPY in the near term. A private-sector survey showed that Japan's factory activity extended declines for an eighth straight month in February but at a slower pace. The au Jibun Bank Japan flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rebounded to 48.9 from a 10-month low of 48.7 in January. In contrast, the gauge for the services sector improved to 53.1 from 53.0. The US Dollar touched its lowest level since December 10 on Thursday as a softer-than-anticipated sales forecast from Walmart raised doubt over US consumer health. This comes on top of worries that US President Donald Trump's tariff plans and protectionist policies would boost inflation, which could further dent consumer spending. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve officials remain wary of future interest rate cuts amid sticky inflation and the uncertainty over Trump's policy moves. In fact, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem warned on Thursday that rising inflation expectations combined with the risk of stubborn stagflation could create a double challenge for the US economy. Earlier, Fed Board Governor Adriana Kugler said that US inflation still has some way to go to reach the 2% target and that its path toward that goal continues to be bumpy. However, Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic struck a dovish tone and sees room for two more rate cuts this year, though much depends on the evolving economic conditions. Traders now look forward to the release of flash US PMIs for fresh insight into the economic health. Friday's US economic docket also features the Existing Home Sales data and the revised Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. This, along with speeches from FOMC members will drive the USD demand and provide some impetus to the USD/JPY pair. USD/JPY is likely to attract fresh sellers and remain capped near the 150.90-151.00 areaFrom a technical perspective, the overnight breakdown through the 151.00-150.90 horizontal support and a subsequent fall below the 150.00 psychological mark was seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart are holding deep in negative territory and are still away from being in the oversold zone. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the USD/JPY pair is to the downside and any further move up could be seen as a selling opportunity near the 151.00 round figure. Some follow-through buying, however, could trigger a short-covering rally and lift the USD/JPY pair to the 151.40 hurdle en route to the 152.00 round-figure mark. The recovery momentum, however, runs the risk of fizzling out rather quickly near the 152.65 area. The said barrier represents the very important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which if cleared decisively might shift the near-term bias in favor of bullish traders. On the flip side, the 150.00 mark now seems to act as an immediate support ahead of the 149.30-149.25 region, or a multi-month low touched during the Asian session. This is closely followed by the 149.00 mark, below which the USD/JPY pair could slide further towards testing the December 2024 swing low, around the 148.65 region. Economic Indicator National Consumer Price Index (YoY) Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Statistics Bureau of Japan on a monthly basis, measures the price fluctuation of goods and services purchased by households nationwide. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Japanese Yen (JPY), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Thu Feb 20, 2025 23:30 Frequency: MonthlyActual: 4%Consensus: -Previous: 3.6%Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan

03:46 Australian Dollar depreciates despite stronger Judo Bank PMI, Bullock’s cautious speech
The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges lower against the US Dollar (USD) following the release of Judo Bank’s Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on Friday.

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However, the AUD/USD pair saw gains after US President Donald Trump announced potential progress in trade negotiations with China, easing market concerns over tariffs. Australia’s Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.6 in February, up from 50.2 in January. The Services PMI improved to 51.4 from 51.2, while the Composite PMI edged up to 51.2 from 51.1. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock cautioned that easing monetary policy too quickly or excessively could stall disinflation, potentially keeping inflation above the target midpoint. Bullock emphasized the RBA’s commitment to data-driven decisions and careful risk assessment, suggesting that while rate cuts remain a possibility, a cautious approach is necessary. Australian Dollar appreciated as US Dollar struggled following weak US jobless claims The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against six major currencies, gains ground near 106.50 at the time of writing. However, the DXY faced challenges following weak US jobless claims data and mixed Federal Reserve (Fed) commentary. US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending February 14 rose to 219,000, exceeding the expected 215,000. Meanwhile, Continuing Jobless Claims increased to 1.869 million, slightly below the forecast of 1.87 million. Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler stated on Thursday that US inflation still has "some way to go" before reaching the central bank's 2% target, noting that the path remains uncertain, according to Reuters. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem cautioned about potential stagflation risks and rising inflation expectations. Meanwhile, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic kept the possibility of two rate cuts this year open, contingent on economic developments. President Trump indicated that a new trade deal with China is possible and expects Chinese President Xi Jinping to visit. He also mentioned discussions with China regarding TikTok and noted that his administration is considering a 25% tariff on lumber and forest products. The latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes reaffirmed the decision to keep interest rates unchanged in January. Policymakers emphasized the need for more time to assess economic activity, labor market trends, and inflation before considering any rate adjustments. The committee also agreed that clear signs of declining inflation are necessary before implementing rate cuts. President Trump has confirmed that a 25% tariff on pharmaceutical and semiconductor imports will take effect in April. Additionally, he reaffirmed that auto tariffs will remain at 25%, further escalating global trade tensions. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported on Thursday that Australia’s seasonally adjusted Unemployment Rate rose to 4.1% in January from 4.0% in December, aligning with market expectations. Additionally, Employment Change came in at 44K for January, down from a revised 60K in December (previously 56.3K), but still exceeding the consensus forecast of 20K. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser stated while speaking to Bloomberg News on Thursday that the central bank’s policy “is still restrictive.” Hauser noted that the latest jobs data showed little cause for concern. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) lowered its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 4.10% on Tuesday—the first rate cut in four years. RBA Governor Michele Bullock acknowledged the impact of high interest rates but cautioned that it was too soon to declare victory over inflation. She also emphasized the strength of the labor market and clarified that future rate cuts are not guaranteed, despite market expectations. Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar tests psychological barrier at 0.6400 The AUD/USD pair hovers around 0.6400 on Friday, trading within an ascending channel that suggests a bullish market sentiment. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above 50, reinforcing the positive outlook. On the upside, the AUD/USD pair tests the key psychological resistance at 0.6400, followed by the ascending channel's upper boundary at 0.6420. Immediate support could be at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 0.6350, followed by the 14-day EMA at 0.6330. A stronger support zone lies near the channel's lower boundary at 0.6320. AUD/USD: Daily ChartAustralian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.15% 0.11% 0.45% 0.08% 0.16% 0.09% 0.18% EUR -0.15% -0.05% 0.32% -0.07% -0.01% -0.07% 0.02% GBP -0.11% 0.05% 0.38% -0.02% 0.04% -0.02% 0.07% JPY -0.45% -0.32% -0.38% -0.34% -0.29% -0.36% -0.27% CAD -0.08% 0.07% 0.02% 0.34% 0.06% 0.00% 0.09% AUD -0.16% 0.00% -0.04% 0.29% -0.06% -0.06% 0.02% NZD -0.09% 0.07% 0.02% 0.36% -0.01% 0.06% 0.08% CHF -0.18% -0.02% -0.07% 0.27% -0.09% -0.02% -0.08% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

03:44 RBNZ’s Conway: OCR forecasts indicate another 75 basis points (bps) easing
Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Chief Economist Paul Conway noted on Friday, “Official Cash Rate (OCR) forecasts indicate another 75 basis points (bps) easing.” Additional quotes New Zealand Dollar (NZD) drop will boost export revenues.

03:34 BoJ’s Ueda: From a long-term perspective, rising rates will help improve financial institutions' profits
Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Friday that “from a long-term perspective, rising interest rates will help improve financial institutions' profits.” Additional quotes BoJ’s massive monetary easing, including yield curve control (YCC), was a necessary process towards achieving our price target.

Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Friday that “from a long-term perspective, rising interest rates will help improve financial institutions' profits.” Additional quotes BoJ’s massive monetary easing, including yield curve control (YCC), was a necessary process towards achieving our price target. We acknowledge the BoJ’s massive stimulus has caused various side effects. The rise in long-term interest rates will push up corporate funding costs but they also need to take into account how improving the economy will underpin their profits. Survey, data on bank lending, firms' funding conditions show they are in good shape. Accommodative monetary environment continues to support Japan's economy. developing story ....

03:19 NZD/USD posts modest gains above 0.5750 ahead of US PMI release
The NZD/USD pair extends the rally to around 0.5765 during the early Asian session on Friday, pressured by the softer US dollar (USD).

03:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1696 vs. 7.1712 previous
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Friday at 7.1696 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1712 and 7.2433 Reuters estimates.

02:30 Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI below expectations (49) in February: Actual (48.9)
Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI below expectations (49) in February: Actual (48.9)

02:30 Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI: 53.1 (February) vs 53
Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI: 53.1 (February) vs 53

02:27 Japan’s Kato: Higher long term rates can pressure Japan's fiscal situation
Japan's Finance Minister, Katsunobu Kato, said early Friday that higher long-term rates can pressure Japan's fiscal situation.

02:01 United Kingdom GfK Consumer Confidence above expectations (-22) in February: Actual (-20)
United Kingdom GfK Consumer Confidence above expectations (-22) in February: Actual (-20)

01:50 Japan’s National CPI climbs 4.0% YoY in January, Core CPI rises more than expected
Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed 4.0% YoY in January, compared to the previous reading of 3.6%, according to the latest data released by the Japan Statistics Bureau on Friday.

01:48 Japan National CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) climbed from previous 2.4% to 2.5% in January
Japan National CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) climbed from previous 2.4% to 2.5% in January

01:48 Japan National CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) came in at 3.2%, above expectations (3.1%) in January
Japan National CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) came in at 3.2%, above expectations (3.1%) in January

01:48 Japan National Consumer Price Index (YoY) increased to 4% in January from previous 3.6%
Japan National Consumer Price Index (YoY) increased to 4% in January from previous 3.6%

01:35 EUR/USD holds steady near 1.0500 ahead of Eurozone PMI release
The EUR/USD pair trades flat near 1.0500 during the late American session on Thursday.

01:12 Fed’s Kugler: Central bank should hold policy rate in place for some time
Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler said late Thursday that US inflation still has "some way to go" to reach the central bank's 2% target and that its path toward that goal continues to be bumpy, per Reuters.

00:59 RBA’s Bullock: Board remains cautious about prospects for further policy easing
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock said late Thursday that the central projection suggests that if monetary policy is eased too quickly or by too much, disinflation could stall and inflation would settle above the midpoint.

00:40 Australia's Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI rises to 50.6 in February, Services PMI improves to 51.4
The preliminary reading of Australia's Judo Bank Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to 50.6 in February from 50.2 in January, the latest data published by Judo Bank and S&P Global showed on Friday.

00:03 Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI up to 50.6 in February from previous 50.2
Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI up to 50.6 in February from previous 50.2

00:01 Australia Judo Bank Services PMI rose from previous 51.2 to 51.4 in February
Australia Judo Bank Services PMI rose from previous 51.2 to 51.4 in February

00:01 Australia Judo Bank Composite PMI increased to 51.2 in February from previous 51.1
Australia Judo Bank Composite PMI increased to 51.2 in February from previous 51.1

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Forex News Timeline

23:56 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD slips 1.20% as bullish momentum fades below $33.00 Silver's price retreats on Friday and fails to capitalize on falling US yields.

23:51 AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Bears deepen losses as pair hits multi-week lows The AUD/JPY cross continued its downward trajectory on Friday to around 94.80, posting sharp losses and breaking through key technical support levels.

22:57 Australian Dollar faces pressure after US PMI The AUD/USD pair faces offers pressure near 0.6400 after the release of the United States (US) S&P Global PMI data for February.

22:48 Gold price holds near record highs, set for eight straight weekly gain Gold price slides late on Friday, poised to end the week positively, accumulating eight straight weeks of gains that pushed the yellow metal to all-time highs of $2,954.

22:30 United States CFTC Oil NC Net Positions down to 197.6K from previous 220K United States CFTC Oil NC Net Positions down to 197.6K from previous 220K

22:30 United States CFTC Gold NC Net Positions dipped from previous $284.5K to $268.7K United States CFTC Gold NC Net Positions dipped from previous $284.5K to $268.7K

22:30 United States CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: $-40K vs previous $-17.1K United States CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: $-40K vs previous $-17.1K

22:30 Eurozone CFTC EUR NC Net Positions climbed from previous €-64.4K to €-51.4K Eurozone CFTC EUR NC Net Positions climbed from previous €-64.4K to €-51.4K

22:30 Australia CFTC AUD NC Net Positions rose from previous $-65.6K to $-56.7K Australia CFTC AUD NC Net Positions rose from previous $-65.6K to $-56.7K

22:30 Japan CFTC JPY NC Net Positions increased to ¥60.6K from previous ¥54.6K Japan CFTC JPY NC Net Positions increased to ¥60.6K from previous ¥54.6K

22:30 United Kingdom CFTC GBP NC Net Positions rose from previous £-3.2K to £-0.6K United Kingdom CFTC GBP NC Net Positions rose from previous £-3.2K to £-0.6K

21:01 Dow Jones Industrial Average falls over 700 points on Friday The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) backslid over 700 points on Friday, knocking lower around one and a half percent and touching the 43,500 level for the first time in over a month.

20:44 US Dollar gains modestly despite PMI data disappointing The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US Dollar’s performance against six major currencies, is holding on to minor gains on Friday, trading around 106.50.

20:07 Mexican Peso weakens as GDP contracts in Q4, growth outlook dims The Mexican Peso (MXN) lost some ground against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday as the Mexican economy decelerated in the last quarter of 2024.

20:03 United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count increased to 487 from previous 481 United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count increased to 487 from previous 481

18:11 EUR/USD Price Analysis: Bulls lose momentum as pair faces rejection at 100-day SMA The EUR/USD pair faced a setback on Friday, declining by 0.44% to settle near 1.0450 after encountering firm resistance at the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around 1.0540.

17:21 GBP/USD slips after hitting record high past 100-day SMA The GBP/USD registers losses during the North American session after testing the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.2658.

17:00 United States UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation came in at 3.5%, above expectations (3.3%) in January United States UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation came in at 3.5%, above expectations (3.3%) in January

17:00 United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index below forecasts (67.8) in January: Actual (64.7) United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index below forecasts (67.8) in January: Actual (64.7)

17:00 United States Existing Home Sales (MoM) registered at 4.08M, below expectations (4.12M) in January United States Existing Home Sales (MoM) registered at 4.08M, below expectations (4.12M) in January

17:00 United States Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) down to -4.9% in January from previous 2.2% United States Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) down to -4.9% in January from previous 2.2%

16:45 United States S&P Global Composite PMI dipped from previous 52.7 to 50.4 in February United States S&P Global Composite PMI dipped from previous 52.7 to 50.4 in February

16:45 United States S&P Global Manufacturing PMI above expectations (51.5) in February: Actual (51.6) United States S&P Global Manufacturing PMI above expectations (51.5) in February: Actual (51.6)

16:45 United States S&P Global Services PMI registered at 49.7, below expectations (53) in February United States S&P Global Services PMI registered at 49.7, below expectations (53) in February

16:19 AUD/USD faces pressure around 0.6400 ahead of flash US PMI The AUD/USD pair faces selling pressure around 0.6400 in North American trading hours on Friday.

15:31 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD struggles around $33.00 as Fed officials guide restrictive policy stance Silver price (XAG/USD) faces selling pressure above the key level of $33.00 in North American trading hours on Friday.

15:31 Canada Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) came in at 2.7%, above forecasts (1.8%) in December Canada Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) came in at 2.7%, above forecasts (1.8%) in December

15:30 Canada Retail Sales (MoM) came in at 2.5%, above expectations (1.6%) in December Canada Retail Sales (MoM) came in at 2.5%, above expectations (1.6%) in December

15:05 GBP turns lower from 100-day/week MA signals in mid-1.26s – Scotiabank UK Retail Sales rose a solid 2.1% in January, well ahead of expectations, after run of soft data in Q4, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

15:01 EUR tops out in the low 1.05s again – Scotiabank Preliminary Eurozone PMI data for February were mixed to slightly softer, weighing on the EUR somewhat in European trade, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

14:54 CAD: Pivot around 1.42 extends ahead of Retail Sales, Macklem – Scotiabank The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is a very moderate loser on the day, down a little more than 0.1%.

14:36 US Dollar pushes back against the latest decline on Friday The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, pushes back on its recent decline and trades slightly below 107.00 at the time of writing on Friday.

14:00 Mexico Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) meets forecasts (-0.6%) in 4Q Mexico Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) meets forecasts (-0.6%) in 4Q

14:00 Mexico Gross Domestic Product (YoY) below expectations (0.6%) in 4Q: Actual (0.5%) Mexico Gross Domestic Product (YoY) below expectations (0.6%) in 4Q: Actual (0.5%)

13:45 European natural gas and power prices drop – Danske Bank European natural gas and power prices have dropped back over the past week despite a cold spell adding to heating demand in Northern Europe, Danske Bank's FX analyst Mohamad Al-Saraf reports.

13:43 JPY emerges as the top performer in the G10 space – Danske Bank USD/JPY has been steadily declining this year, with JPY emerging as the top performer in the G10 space.

13:39 NZD largely unphased by the RBNZ comments – BBH Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Chief Economist Paul Conway reiterated the bank’s policy outlook , BBH's FX analysts report.

13:34 USD/CNH: Expected to trade between 7.2300 and 7.2580 – UOB Group US Dollar (USD) is expected to trade between 7.2300 and 7.2580 vs Chinese Yuan (CNH).

13:31 AUD: RBA remains cautious about prospects for further policy easing – BBH AUD is supported as markets continue to imply a shallow RBA easing cycle (roughly 50bps of easing over the next 12 months), BBH's FX analysts report.

13:30 India Bank Loan Growth declined to 11.3% in February 3 from previous 11.4% India Bank Loan Growth declined to 11.3% in February 3 from previous 11.4%

13:30 India FX Reserves, USD declined to $635.72B in February 10 from previous $638.26B India FX Reserves, USD declined to $635.72B in February 10 from previous $638.26B

13:28 USD/JPY: Expected to trade in a 149.20/150.55 range – UOB Group US Dollar (USD) is expected to trade in a 149.20/150.55 range vs Japanese Yen (JPY).

13:11 GBP: BoE to cut 50bps over the next 12 months– BBH GBP is firmer after UK January retail sales growth overshot expectations , BBH's FX analysts report.

13:05 USD/CAD Price Forecast: Recovers to near 1.4200 The USD/CAD pair gains to near the key resistance of 1.4200 in European trading hours on Friday.

13:00 NZD/USD: Unlikely to reach 0.5790 today – UOB Group Scope for New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to rise further, but it is unlikely to reach 0.5790 today.

12:56 USD/JPY: Technical rebound; fade rallies – OCBC USD/JPY fell to a low of 149.29 this morning before rebounding to above 150 on Governor Ueda’s comments.

12:51 JPY: Inflation endorses hawkish sentiment – ING The Japanese Yen (JPY) has had a stellar week, ING’s FX analysts Francesco Pesole notes.

12:45 AUD/USD can advance further, potentially reaching 0.6455 – UOB Group Room for Australian Dollar (AUD) to advance to 0.6425 vs US Dollar (USD) before levelling off; 0.6455 is likely out of reach for now.

12:40 USD: A major correction on souring US sentiment – ING FX markets moved quite hectically yesterday, with the dollar giving up its weekly gains in a round of heavy positioning readjustment.

12:17 EUR/USD falls after flash Eurozone PMI data EUR/USD slides to near 1.0470 in Friday’s European session.

12:16 DXY: Break below 100-DMA may open room for further downside – OCBC US Dollar (USD) fell overnight as UST yields retreated while US equities slipped.

12:13 Gold drops over 1% from Thursday’s all-time high Gold’s price (XAU/USD) slides over 1% lower from its Thursday all-time high of $2,954 and trades around $2,925 at the time of writing on Friday.

11:59 GBP/USD: Boost in momentum indicates further GBP strength to 1.2730 – UOB Group Impulsive momentum could push Pound Sterling (GBP) higher vs US Dollar (USD); overbought conditions suggest 1.2730 could be just out of reach for now.

11:52 EUR/USD: German elections Sunday – OCBC As of 17 Feb, Politico’s poll of polls shows CDU/CSU leading at 30%, AfD at 21%, SPD at 16% and Greens at 13%, while other smaller parties are in the region of 5% or so.

11:50 EUR/JPY surrenders half of intraday gains after steady Eurozone flash PMI The EUR/JPY pair gives up half of its intraday gains and falls to near 157.50 from the intraday high of 158.23 in European trading hours on Friday.

11:47 EUR: Major German parties pledge to keep the far right out of any coalition – ING The euro has benefited from the unwinding of US Dollar (USD) longs, but remains generally unattractive in the crosses, ING’s FX analysts Francesco Pesole notes.

11:42 EUR/USD: Has room to extend to 1.0530 – UOB Group Impulsive advance has room to extend to 1.0530; a clear break above this level appears unlikely.

11:32 UK Preliminary Services PMI unexpectedly rises to 51.1 in February vs. 50.8 expected The seasonally adjusted S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) unexpectedly declined to 46.4 in February from 48.3 in January.

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI below forecasts (48.4) in February: Actual (46.4) United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI below forecasts (48.4) in February: Actual (46.4)

11:30 Silver price today: Silver broadly unchanged, according to FXStreet data Silver prices (XAG/USD) broadly unchanged on Friday, according to FXStreet data.

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI meets expectations (50.5) in February United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI meets expectations (50.5) in February

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI came in at 51.1, above expectations (50.8) in February United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI came in at 51.1, above expectations (50.8) in February

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI came in at 47.3, above expectations (47) in February Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI came in at 47.3, above expectations (47) in February

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI came in at 50.2, below expectations (50.5) in February Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI came in at 50.2, below expectations (50.5) in February

11:00 Italy Consumer Price Index (YoY) meets forecasts (1.5%) in January Italy Consumer Price Index (YoY) meets forecasts (1.5%) in January

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Services PMI below expectations (51.5) in February: Actual (50.7) Eurozone HCOB Services PMI below expectations (51.5) in February: Actual (50.7)

11:00 Italy Consumer Price Index (MoM) meets expectations (0.6%) in January Italy Consumer Price Index (MoM) meets expectations (0.6%) in January

11:00 Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY) in line with expectations (1.7%) in January Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY) in line with expectations (1.7%) in January

11:00 Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM) came in at -0.8%, below expectations (-0.7%) in January Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM) came in at -0.8%, below expectations (-0.7%) in January

11:00 S&P Global PMIs expected to confirm US economic expansion in February S&P Global is set to release its early estimates for the United States (US) Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMIs) for February this Friday.

10:32 German Preliminary Manufacturing PMI jumps to 46.1 in February vs. 45.5 expected The German manufacturing and services sectors activity improved more-than-expected in February, the preliminary business activity report published by the HCOB survey showed Friday.

10:30 Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI registered at 46.1 above expectations (45.5) in February Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI registered at 46.1 above expectations (45.5) in February

10:30 Germany HCOB Services PMI registered at 52.2, below expectations (52.5) in February Germany HCOB Services PMI registered at 52.2, below expectations (52.5) in February

10:30 Germany HCOB Composite PMI registered at 51 above expectations (50.8) in February Germany HCOB Composite PMI registered at 51 above expectations (50.8) in February

10:15 France HCOB Manufacturing PMI meets forecasts (45.5) in February France HCOB Manufacturing PMI meets forecasts (45.5) in February

10:15 France HCOB Services PMI registered at 44.5, below expectations (48.9) in February France HCOB Services PMI registered at 44.5, below expectations (48.9) in February

10:15 France HCOB Composite PMI registered at 44.5, below expectations (48) in February France HCOB Composite PMI registered at 44.5, below expectations (48) in February

10:06 Pound Sterling advances on robust growth in UK Retail Sales in January The Pound Sterling (GBP) strengthens against its major peers on Friday after the release of robust United Kingdom (UK) Retail Sales data for January.

10:05 Crude Oil price today: WTI price bearish, according to FXStreet data West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Friday, according to FXStreet data.