Forex News Timeline

23:47 NZD/USD Price Analysis: Kiwi pulls back ahead of RBNZ decision
The New Zealand dollar faced selling pressure on Tuesday, dropping 0.58% agains the US Dollar to 0.5700 after last week’s rally saw the pair climb to its highest levels since late January above 0.5730.

NZD/USD declines to 0.5700 on Tuesday after hitting its highest level since late January last week.Bulls remain in control as long as the pair holds above the 20-day SMA, with the RBNZ decision set to drive the next move.The New Zealand dollar faced selling pressure on Tuesday, dropping 0.58% agains the US Dollar to 0.5700 after last week’s rally saw the pair climb to its highest levels since late January above 0.5730. Despite the pullback, the broader outlook remains positive, with the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.5825 still in focus. Looking ahead, market participants are gearing up for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) policy decision during the Asian session. The central bank’s guidance will likely dictate the pair’s next major move, with a hawkish tone potentially reigniting the upside momentum, while a dovish stance could extend the ongoing pullback. In the meantime,technical indicators point to a natural correction rather than a shift in trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) declined sharply to 56 but remains in positive territory, suggesting that buyers are still in control. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram prints rising green bars, indicating that bullish momentum has not been completely exhausted. A break below the 20-day SMA, however, could tilt the balance in favor of the bears. NZD/USD daily chart

23:45 New Zealand Producer Price Index - Input (QoQ) down to -0.9% in 4Q from previous 1.9%
New Zealand Producer Price Index - Input (QoQ) down to -0.9% in 4Q from previous 1.9%

23:45 New Zealand Producer Price Index - Output (QoQ) fell from previous 1.5% to -0.1% in 4Q
New Zealand Producer Price Index - Output (QoQ) fell from previous 1.5% to -0.1% in 4Q

23:38 GBP/USD Price Analysis: Bulls pause ahead of key fundamental drivers
GBP/USD retreated slightly on Tuesday, edging down 0.16% to 1.2605 after an extended rally that propelled it to its highest level since mid-January.

GBP/USD dips 0.16% to 1.2605 on Tuesday after reaching its highest level since mid-January.RSI declines to 62, indicating a slowdown in bullish momentum, while MACD remains flat with green bars.The pair eyes the 100-day SMA at 1.2660, with UK inflation and Retail Sales data set to provide direction.GBP/USD retreated slightly on Tuesday, edging down 0.16% to 1.2605 after an extended rally that propelled it to its highest level since mid-January. Despite this mild pullback, the broader outlook remains constructive, as the pair continues to set its sights on the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.2660. Momentum indicators suggest a temporary cooling-off period rather than a structural shift. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dipped to 62, signaling a slowdown in buying pressure but still holding in positive territory. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains flat with green bars, reinforcing the notion that the latest price action is more of a technical correction than a bearish reversal. Looking ahead, GBP/USD could receive fresh volatility on Wednesday as the UK is set to release key economic data, including inflation figures and retail sales numbers. These reports will be crucial in shaping expectations for Bank of England policy and could provide the fundamental push needed for the pair to either resume its upward trajectory or extend its consolidation phase. GBP/USD daily chart

23:00 United States Net Long-Term TIC Flows below expectations ($149.1B) in December: Actual ($72B)
United States Net Long-Term TIC Flows below expectations ($149.1B) in December: Actual ($72B)

23:00 United States Total Net TIC Flows down to $87.1B in December from previous $159.9B
United States Total Net TIC Flows down to $87.1B in December from previous $159.9B

22:45 Australian Dollar capped above 0.6300 despite hawkish RBA
The AUD/USD pair halted its three-day recovery on the back of the firmer US Dollar (USD) and despite the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) hawkish cut although it managed to keep the trade above the 0.6300 barrier.

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Market participants remain vigilant about potential United States (US) tariff actions while digesting the RBA’s stance and waiting on further economic data. Daily digest market movers: Aussie contends with trade and policy uncertainties and awaited RBA cut The RBA delivered a hawkish 25bps rate cut to 4.10%, in line with many forecasts, emphasizing that this move did not mark the start of an extended easing cycle. Uncertainty lingers over inflation trends and labor-market tightness which gave the statement a hawkish tone. Market watchers expect only one additional 25bps cut in Q3-2025, citing suboptimal productivity growth and enduring price pressures. However, if trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index (CPI) decelerates faster, the RBA may adopt a more accommodative stance. In addition, US President Donald Trump’s extended tariff threats on Chinese imports raise the possibility of countermeasures, threatening global sentiment and capping the pair’s upside. The US Dollar gained momentum after the Dollar Index (DXY) recaptured the 107.00 zone, fueled by recovering US yields, concerns over trade policies and a negative market mood due to the stalled negotiations between the US and Russia over Ukraine. AUD/USD technical outlook: Pair remains above 20-day SMA as momentum stabilizes The AUD/USD pair slipped 0.16% to 0.6345 on Tuesday, retreating from a multi-day upswing yet still trading near December highs. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 63, in positive territory but declining sharply, hinting that buying enthusiasm has eased slightly. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator prints rising green bars, reflecting a gradual uptrend as the pair holds above its 20-day Simple Moving Average. Despite modest losses, the Aussie retains a supportive tone, though a breach below 0.6300 could test bullish commitments. The next major upside target sits around the 100-day Simple Moving Average near 0.6670. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

22:37 Gold price soars 1% as trade uncertainty sparks demand
Gold price surged more than 1% on Tuesday due to safe-haven demand amid uncertainty over controversial trade policies proposed by US President Donald Trump.

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The XAU/USD trades at $2,933 after bouncing off daily lows of $2,892. The financial markets remain rattled following last week’s US Trump imposition of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports and plans for applying reciprocal duties. Therefore, Bullion prices remain poised to challenge record highs after hitting $2,942 on February 11. Goldman Sachs upward revised XAU/USD price to $3,100 by year’s end as the investment bank said “structurally higher" central bank demand will add 9% to the price of the non-yielding metal. After Trump’s victory on November 6, Gold dipped to $2,534 before rallying over 15.90% due to haven and global central bank buying. The World Gold Council (WGC) revealed that central banks purchased more than 54% YoY to 333 tonnes following Trump’s victory, according to its data. Gold traders should be warned that Federal Reserve (Fed) officials turned slightly skeptical about getting the job done on inflation after the Consumer Price Index (CPI) had risen for five straight months. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said, “Policy needs to remain restrictive until…I see that we are really continuing to make progress on inflation.” Market participants will watch the release of January’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy decision, along with housing data, Initial Jobless Claims for the last week, and S&P Global Flash PMIs. Daily digest market movers: Gold price benefits from safe-haven demand The US 10-year Treasury bond yield climbs seven basis points (bps), yields 4.55%. US real yields, which correlate inversely to Bullion prices, rise four-and-a-half basis points to 2.086%, a headwind for Bullion prices. Fed Governor Christopher Waller stated that his "baseline" expectation is that President Donald Trump's new trade restrictions will have only a limited impact on prices. Meanwhile, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker reaffirmed support for maintaining a steady interest rate policy, acknowledging that inflation has remained elevated and persistent in recent months. US Housing Starts for January is expected to decrease from 1.499 million to 1.4 million. At the same time, Building Permits for the same period are expected to drop from 1.482 million to 1.46 million. Money market fed funds rate futures are pricing in 39 basis points of easing by the Fed in 2025. XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold price skyrockets past $2,900 Gold price trend remains up with buyers setting their sights on clearing the all-time high of $2,942. Further key resistance levels lie at $2,950 and the $3,000 mark. It should be said that if those levels are cleared, Goldman Sachs estimated XAU/USD to hit $3,100 by year’s end. For a bearish continuation, sellers must push the Gold spot price below $2,900. In that outcome, key support levels will be exposed, like the February 14 swing low of $2,877, followed by the February 12 low of $2,864. On further weakness, Gold could fall to test the October 31 swing high at $2,790.Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

22:15 RBNZ set for another 50 bps interest rate cut as economic slowdown deepens
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is widely expected to lower the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by another 50 basis points (bps) from 4.25% to 3.75% when it announces its interest rate decision on Wednesday at 01:00 GMT.

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50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to cut its key interest rate by 50 bps to 3.75% on Wednesday.The RBNZ’s updated forecasts and Governor Orr’s words are likely to offer clues on the policy outlook.The New Zealand Dollar is set to rock on the RBNZ policy announcements.The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is widely expected to lower the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by another 50 basis points (bps) from 4.25% to 3.75% when it announces its interest rate decision on Wednesday at 01:00 GMT. Most economists polled by Reuters predicted a 50 bps rate reduction at the February policy meeting. The RBNZ has delivered a cumulative 125 bps of cuts since August last year. Therefore, the central bank’s hints on future rate cuts could trigger a big reaction in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). What to expect from the RBNZ interest rate decision? At its November meeting, RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr explicitly anticipated a 50 bps cut this month, noting that “if economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the committee expects to be able to lower the OCR further early next year.” Orr added that he was “confident domestic inflation pressures will continue to ease.” The decision was backed by concerns over the economic slowdown and inflation returning to the central bank’s target range between 1% and 3%. New Zealand’s annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.2% in the third quarter (Q3) of 2024, aligning with market forecasts and marking a sharp slowdown from the 3.3% growth in the prior quarter. Since then, New Zealand’s economy entered a recession in Q3, with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) declining 1% from the previous quarter’s revised 1.1% contraction. Economists expected a 0.4% decrease in the reported period. Despite its move front-load policy easing in November, the RBNZ maintained that the “economic activity in New Zealand is subdued,” leaving room for additional rate cuts this year. “The swaps market agrees and sees the policy bottoming near 3.25% over the next 12 months,” according to the BBH analysts. This outpaces the Bank’s projection of peak OCR in December 2025 at 3.55%. Against this backdrop, the language of the Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) and the updated economic projections will be key to gauging the scope and timing of future rate reductions. How will the RBNZ interest decision impact the New Zealand Dollar? In the lead-up to the RBNZ showdown, the NZD/USD pair is at its highest in four weeks at 0.5750, helped by easing tensions surrounding United States (US) President Donald Trump’s tariffs and a broad-based US Dollar (USD) downtrend. The New Zealand Dollar could reverse sharply from near the monthly peak against the USD if the RBNZ fans further rate cut expectations. Another downward revision to the OCR forecasts could also smash the NZD/USD pair. In case the RBNZ hints at slowing its pace of easing or maintains the OCR projections, the NZD could see a fresh upside across the board. Dhwani Mehta, FXStreet’s Senior Analyst, offers a brief technical outlook for trading the New Zealand Dollar on the RBNZ policy announcements: “The upside risks remain intact for the NZD/USD after a Bull Cross was confirmed on the daily chart last Friday. Adding credence to the bearishness, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds well above the 50 level, despite the latest downturn.” “If buyers regain control, the initial resistance is seen at the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.5814, above which the November 29 2024 high of 0.5930 will be challenged. Further up, the 0.6000 round level will offer stiff resistance. Conversely, strong support is seen near 0.5660, where the 21-day SMA and 50-day SMA hang around. Failure to defend the confluence support could trigger a fresh downside toward the February 3 low of 0.5516,” Dhwani adds. Economic Indicator RBNZ Interest Rate Decision The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announces its interest rate decision after its seven scheduled annual policy meetings. If the RBNZ is hawkish and sees inflationary pressures rising, it raises the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to bring inflation down. This is positive for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) since higher interest rates attract more capital inflows. Likewise, if it reaches the view that inflation is too low it lowers the OCR, which tends to weaken NZD. Read more. Next release: Wed Feb 19, 2025 01:00 Frequency: IrregularConsensus: 3.75%Previous: 4.25%Source: Reserve Bank of New Zealand Why it matters to traders? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) holds monetary policy meetings seven times a year, announcing their decision on interest rates and the economic assessments that influenced their decision. The central bank offers clues on the economic outlook and future policy path, which are of high relevance for the NZD valuation. Positive economic developments and upbeat outlook could lead the RBNZ to tighten the policy by hiking interest rates, which tends to be NZD bullish. The policy announcements are usually followed by Governor Adrian Orr’s press conference. Central banks FAQs What does a central bank do? Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%. What does a central bank do when inflation undershoots or overshoots its projected target? A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing. Who decides on monetary policy and interest rates? A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%. Is there a president or head of a central bank? Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.

21:37 Forex Today: UK inflation and the FOMC Minutes will be in the spotlight
The US Dollar managed to regain some balance and stage a tepid rebound helped by the resumption of concerns over US tariffs, as well as a widespread selling pressure in the risk-linked universe.

The US Dollar managed to regain some balance and stage a tepid rebound helped by the resumption of concerns over US tariffs, as well as a widespread selling pressure in the risk-linked universe.Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, February 19: The US Dollar Index (DXY) regained the smile and reversed a multi-day bearish move, briefly trespassing the key 107.00 hurdle on Tuesday. The usual MBA Mortgage Applications are due seconded by Building Permits, Housing Starts, the FOMC Minutes and the API’s weekly report on US crude oil inventories. In addition, the Fed’s Jefferson is expected to speak.EUR/USD added to Monday’s rejection from recent yearly peaks north of the 1.0500 barrier. The Current Account results in the euro area will be published, followed by the European Commission’s Winter Forecasts. GBP/USD’s three-day advance met some resistance past 1.2600 the figure, giving away part of the recent strong gains. The publication of UK inflation figures will take centre stage. Renewed depreciation of the Japanese yen encouraged USD/JPY to reverse the recent bearish move and end the day with humble gains. The Balance of Trade readings and Machinery Orders are due on the Japanese calendar. AUD/USD struggled to maintain its bullish bias, although it managed well to keep business well above the key 0.6300 level. The Westpac Leading Index and the quarterly Wage Price Index will be released in Oz. WTI prices added to the optimism seen at the beginning of the week and retested the key $72.00 mark per barrel following renewed supply concerns. Gold prices extended the auspicious start to the week and climbed further north of the $2,900 mark per ounce troy following the resurgence of the tariff narrative and safe haven demand. Silver prices rallied past the $32.00 mark per ounce to clock weekly peaks.

20:59 Argentina Trade Balance (MoM) registered at $142M, below expectations ($800M) in January
Argentina Trade Balance (MoM) registered at $142M, below expectations ($800M) in January

20:41 Canadian Dollar holds steady after CPI inflation uptick
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) traded blows with the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, keeping USD/CAD stead near the 1.4200 handle as Loonie traders try to hang onto their recent gains.

20:35 US Dollar gains as US-Russia talks show little progress
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US Dollar's (USD) performance against six major currencies, rises on Tuesday as traders react to discouraging headlines from the United States (US)-Russia talks in Riyadh.

20:13 Mexican Peso extends rally as risk appetite offsets Fed hawkishness
The Mexican Peso (MXN) rallied for the sixth consecutive day amid an upbeat market mood, which keeps risk-sensitive currencies appreciating despite some Federal Reserve (Fed) officials turning slightly hawkish.

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At the time of writing, USD/MXN trades at 20.22, down 0.27%. Mexico’s economic docket remained absent earlier in the week, though Retail Sales data and Banco de Mexico (Banxico) minutes of its last meeting could drive price action on Thursday. Towards the end of the week, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures would be of interest to USD/MXN traders. Retail Sales in December are expected to show Mexico’s economy slowdown. The final GDP reading for Q4 2024 is expected to show a contraction on a quarterly basis and is foreseen to expand annually. Meanwhile, investors await Banxico’s minutes, which will help them gather clues about the intention of reducing rates at a 50 basis point (bps) pace during the year. In other news, Marcelo Ebrard, Mexico’s Secretary of Economy, revealed that he would meet this Thursday with his counterparts from the United States (US) government in Washington to discuss matters regarding tariffs and bilateral economic integration. In the US, Federal Reserve officials turned cautious after the disinflation process stalled, as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) had risen for five straight months. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said during a conference in Arizona: “Policy needs to remain restrictive until… I see that we are really continuing to make progress on inflation.” Daily digest market movers: Mexican Peso surges amid Fed steady stance Monetary policy divergence between Banxico and the Fed favors further USD/MXN upside. The Fed is expected to keep rates steady, while Banxico is foreseen to cut rates again by 50 basis points in the next meeting. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that his "baseline" view was that US President Donald Trump's new trade restrictions would have only a modest impact on prices. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker supported a steady interest-rate policy stance as he acknowledged that inflation has remained elevated and persistent in recent months. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck's performance against a basket of currencies, edges up 0.29%, at 107.04, usually a tailwind for USD/MXN. According to the December 2025 fed funds interest rate futures contract, the swaps market suggests that the Fed will reduce rates by 39 basis points towards year-end. Trade disputes between the US and Mexico remain in the boiler room. Although the countries found common ground previously, USD/MXN traders should know that there is a 30-day pause and that tensions could arise toward the end of February. USD/MXN technical outlook: Mexican Peso is steady as USD/MXN is below 50-day SMA At the time of writing, the USD/MXN pair is testing the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 20.24, which, if decisively broken with a daily close below the latter, could pave the way to challenge the 20.00 psychological figure. Although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains bearish, its slope is flat, meaning that neither sellers nor buyers are in control. On the other hand, if USD/MXN climbs past the 50-day SMA at 20.45, the exotic pair could rally to 20.50, followed by the January 17 daily high at 20.93.Mexican Peso FAQs What key factors drive the Mexican Peso? The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity. How do decisions of the Banxico impact the Mexican Peso? The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. How does economic data influence the value of the Mexican Peso? Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Mexican Peso? As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

20:06 United States 52-Week Bill Auction climbed from previous 4.025% to 4.05%
United States 52-Week Bill Auction climbed from previous 4.025% to 4.05%

19:36 Dow Jones Industrial Average knocks lower on first day back after market holiday
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) stumbled out of the gate on Tuesday, declining around 300 points at its lowest following an extended weekend break.

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Equities somewhat recovered their stance through the US market session, but the Dow Jones remains down around 100 points near 44,450. Stock traders piled back into markets following the President’s Day holiday on Monday, rushing to price in headlines before realizing there wasn’t much to price in. Another Federal Reserve (Fed) policymaker noted on Tuesday that a murky policy outlook from the Trump administration makes it difficult to nail down a timeline for when the Fed might deliver another rate cut. The Fed’s latest Meeting Minutes are slated for release on Wednesday, but the report is unlikely to sharpen guidance any further. According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, rate markets are pricing in better-than-even odds that the Fed’s next rate trim will be a 25 bps cut on July 30. Looking ahead, the next key data print for US markets will be Friday’s upcoming global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) prints. US PMI survey results are expected to tick slightly higher for both the Manufacturing and Services components. Dow Jones news Despite heavy losses in key contributing equities, the Dow Jones was overall tilted into the bullish side on Tuesday. Around two-thirds of the major equity index found room in the green, but sharp contractions in UnitedHealth (UNH) and Home Depot (HD) kept the DJIA on the bearish side. UNH tumbled 17% on Tuesday, falling below $507 per share after the company resisted calls from shareholders to investigate the true costs of the health company’s logbook of denied and delayed healthcare claims. Shareholders submitted a proposal to do a more accurate cost accounting of UNH’s denial practices, citing “public health-related costs and macroeconomic risks created by the company’s practices that limit or delay access to healthcare”. Home Depot also shed around 7%, falling below $403 per share after investors balked at underperforming US home sales and a general lack of confidence in price stability in the face of looming tariff action from the US government. Dow Jones price forecast Congestion continues to plague the Dow Jones Industrial Average as the major equity index battles near-term consolidation around the 44,500 region. Price action is getting squeezed into a chopping midrange, with a technical ceiling priced in around 44,800 and an immediate floor near the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) just south of the 44,000 major price handle. Long-term, the DJIA is holding close enough to all-time highs to keep short interest nervous. The Dow Jones has trended above the 200-day EMA for 15 consecutive months, and is still holding onto gains of 4.7% from the start of the year. Dow Jones daily chartDow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.

17:52 Fed's Daly: Further cuts in 2025 remains uncertain
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of San Franciso President Mary Daly noted on Tuesday that prospects of further rate cuts this year remain murky in the face of policy uncertainty despite an overall positive lean to US economic factors.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of San Franciso President Mary Daly noted on Tuesday that prospects of further rate cuts this year remain murky in the face of policy uncertainty despite an overall positive lean to US economic factors. Key highlights The US economy is in a good place. GDP growth and the labor market are solid. The world is uncertain. No reason to be discouraged about inflation progress, but taking longer than anyone wants. We want to be careful before we make the next adjustment that there's enough pressure on inflation. Also, I don't want to shortchange the labor market. We need more information. I don't want to urgently get to an answer that we would regret. We don't know the scope, magnitude, or timing of the new administration's policies. Policy is in a very good place, we can easily move when needed. We can't preemptively make decisions based on policy guesses. We have a safe and sound banking system.

17:50 EUR/USD Price Analysis: Bulls pause as pair faces key technical test
EUR/USD took a step back on Tuesday, shedding 0.32% to trade near 1.0450 as bulls lost some ground after last week’s impressive rally.

EUR/USD slips to 1.0450 on Tuesday, cooling off after last week's strong rally.RSI declines sharply to 55, signaling waning bullish momentum while MACD remains flat with green bars.The 20-day and 100-day SMAs are converging near 1.0450, raising concerns over a potential bearish crossover.EUR/USD took a step back on Tuesday, shedding 0.32% to trade near 1.0450 as bulls lost some ground after last week’s impressive rally. The pair remains above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), keeping the broader outlook constructive for now. However, the latest price action suggests that buying momentum is fading. Technical indicators reflect this shift. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has sharply declined to 55, showing weakening bullish traction, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains flat with green bars, highlighting hesitation among buyers. A key technical factor to watch is the 20-day and 100-day SMA convergence around 1.0450. If a bearish crossover materializes, it could invalidate recent gains and reinforce a downside bias. For now, as long as EUR/USD holds above the 20-day SMA, buyers still have a chance to push higher. However, a sustained break below this level would expose the pair to further losses, with immediate support at 1.0420 and deeper downside risks toward 1.0380. EUR/USD daily chart

17:17 RBA: Revising our cash rate forecast – Standard Chartered
RBA delivered a hawkish cut and pushed back against market pricing of c.50bps more cuts in 2025.

RBA delivered a hawkish cut and pushed back against market pricing of c.50bps more cuts in 2025. We now expect only one more 25bps cut in Q3-2025 (vs a 25bps cut in Q2 and 50bps of cuts in Q3 prior). Our end-2025 cash rate forecast moves to 3.85% (previously 3.35%) amid a secularly tight labour market. RBA may cut more than we expect if trimmed mean CPI eases at a faster-than-anticipated pace, Standard Chartered's FX and Macro Strategist Nicholas Chia notes. Rate cut was no ‘lay-down misère’ "The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) delivered a hawkish 25bps cut to the cash rate to 4.10%, in line with our and consensus expectations. Q4 trimmed mean CPI (3.2%) eased more than the RBA had expected (3.4%), increasing its confidence that CPI inflation is moving lower sustainably." "We think Governor Bullock’s subsequent press conference was slightly more hawkish than the RBA statement. Bullock pushed back against market pricing of RBA rate cuts and suggested there 'may not be quite as much room to go' in further rate reductions compared to its DM peers. Bullock emphasised that the 25bps cut was aimed at removing the cautionary rate hike in November 2023 rather than signalling the start of a full-fledged easing cycle, and that policy is still restrictive." "We now expect the RBA to cut just once more in Q3-2025 as we think back-to-back quarterly cuts are unlikely, and poor productivity growth may persist, keeping unit labour costs well-supported. Our end-2025 terminal rate projection, therefore, moves to 3.85% (vs 3.35% previously). With the pre-election budget due in late-March, the RBA may be keen to monitor the impact of any further cost-of-living assistance measures on the disinflation process. The RBA may cut more than we expect if trimmed mean CPI eases at a faster pace than anticipated, or if the labour market weakens more substantially."

17:10 GBP/USD slips amid strong US Dollar, hawkish Fed tilt
The Pond Sterling retreated after rallying three consecutive days, dropping some 0.19% even though the UK’s jobs data was solid.

17:00 United States NAHB Housing Market Index below forecasts (47) in February: Actual (42)
United States NAHB Housing Market Index below forecasts (47) in February: Actual (42)

16:58 USD/JPY to trade at 145.00 in the end of the year – Rabobank
So far, February has been a choppy period for USD/JPY. Having rallied since the start of the year, the Japanese Yen (JPY) succumbed to profit taking earlier this month only to rebound in recent sessions, Rabobank's FX analyst Jane Foley notes.

So far, February has been a choppy period for USD/JPY. Having rallied since the start of the year, the Japanese Yen (JPY) succumbed to profit taking earlier this month only to rebound in recent sessions, Rabobank's FX analyst Jane Foley notes. USD/JPY is on course to the December low in the 148.65 area "Yesterday USD/JPY pushed lower, encouraged by the release of the better-than-expected Q4 Japanese GDP report. That said, as the month’s low around the 151.00 level neared, JPY bulls lost their nerve this morning and the currency pair ticked higher. In our view the JPY is likely to continue gaining ground in the coming months." "We retain a year-end target of USD/JPY145.00 with downside risk. The JPY is the best performing G10 currency in the year to date. A clear break below the USD/JPY151 level could put the currency pair on course to the December low in the 148.65 area."

16:33 AUD/USD drops below 0.6350 as US Dollar clings to intraday gains
The AUD/USD pair is down a little over 0.1% below 0.6350 in Tuesday’s North American session.

16:29 New Zealand GDT Price Index down to -0.6% from previous 3.7%
New Zealand GDT Price Index down to -0.6% from previous 3.7%

15:51 USD/CAD faces pressure near intraday high of 1.4200 after hot Canadian CPI report
The USD/CAD pair attracts offers near the intraday high of 1.4200 in Tuesday’s North American session.

15:31 Canada Consumer Price Index - Core (MoM) remains unchanged at 0.3% in January
Canada Consumer Price Index - Core (MoM) remains unchanged at 0.3% in January

15:30 Canada Consumer Price Index (MoM) meets forecasts (0.1%) in January
Canada Consumer Price Index (MoM) meets forecasts (0.1%) in January

15:30 Canada BoC Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) up to 2.1% in January from previous 1.8%
Canada BoC Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) up to 2.1% in January from previous 1.8%

15:30 Canada Consumer Price Index (YoY) in line with expectations (1.9%) in January
Canada Consumer Price Index (YoY) in line with expectations (1.9%) in January

15:30 Canada BoC Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) up to 0.4% in January from previous -0.3%
Canada BoC Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) up to 0.4% in January from previous -0.3%

15:30 United States NY Empire State Manufacturing Index came in at 5.7, above forecasts (-1) in February
United States NY Empire State Manufacturing Index came in at 5.7, above forecasts (-1) in February

15:07 GBP struggles to hold gains around 1.26 – Scotiabank
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is a relatively weak performer on the session vs US Dollar (USD), down a little more than 0.2% on the generally strong USD, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is a relatively weak performer on the session vs US Dollar (USD), down a little more than 0.2% on the generally strong USD, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. GBP struggles to hold gains despite strong wage, jobs data "UK data showed stronger-than-expected growth in wages (6.0% for average weekly earnings in the 3 months through December) while employment growth was stronger than expected. The data pared market expectations for BoE easing moving forward, endorsing messaging from the BoE leadership that rate cuts will proceed cautiously." "GBP's' solid rise last week has struggled to extend through the low 1.26—where the 38.2% retracement of the 1.34/1.21 drop seen between September and January sits (1.2610)." "GBP has spent the past two trading sessions pivoting around the 1.26 point, leaving GBP gains looking stalled. Loss of support at 1.2580 will drive the pound back to 1.2525/30."

15:03 EUR slips back from low 1.05 area – Scotiabank
Germany’s February ZEW Investor Survey reflected a stronger than expected rise in the Expectations index (26, versus 20 expected and 19.3 in January), Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Germany’s February ZEW Investor Survey reflected a stronger than expected rise in the Expectations index (26, versus 20 expected and 19.3 in January), Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. Germany’s ZEW survey jumps "The improvement likely reflects hopes that the Federal election will produce a pro-growth, market friendly government. Challenges around the outlook remain. A peace deal for Ukraine would be a positive for Europe but the flipside is that more defence spending will surely entail more government borrowing ahead." "Minor Euro (EUR) losses vs US Dollar (USD) yesterday and (so far) today suggest recent EUR gains have stalled. The fact that the EUR rebound has (again, so far) failed to retest the late January peak at 1.0533 keeps the broader outlook for the single currency somewhat negative, despite recent gains." "Regaining 1.0490/00 in the next day or so is needed to reinvigorate the near-term move higher. Support is 1.0445/50 and 1.0375/80."

14:58 CAD may stabilize in the short run – Scotiabank
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is little changed in quiet trade.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is little changed in quiet trade. Spot based near 1.4150 late last week and may struggle to improve much further while tariff risks remain unclear. The CAD continues to trade above estimated fair value (1.4261) which also suggests limited scope for additional progress in the short run, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. CAD is little changed in quiet trade "Canadian CPI is expected to post no gains in the January month, keeping the Y/Y pace of inflation steady at 1.8%. Scotia is a little above the consensus at +0.1% M/M and 1.9% for the year. The core Median rate of inflation is expected to hold steady at 2.4% in the year while the Trim measure may edge up to 2.6% (from 2.5% in December)." "USD-negative signals on the longer-term charts and spot’s push below key support at 1.4250/60 (recent USD lows and the 38.2% retracement of the USD’s Sep/Jan rally) last week tilt broader risks towards a further USD drop to the 1.40/1.41 area to tick off the next retracement targets in the weeks ahead." "Short-term trends suggest some consolidation in price action may develop in the next few days, however. Resistance is 1.4265/75 now and 1.4335/55."

14:52 USD steadies as yields edge up – Scotiabank
North American markets return from their respective long weekends with the Dollar Index (DXY) trading a little above the two-month low reached in quiet trade yesterday, breaking a streak of six consecutive daily losses for the index, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

North American markets return from their respective long weekends with the Dollar Index (DXY) trading a little above the two-month low reached in quiet trade yesterday, breaking a streak of six consecutive daily losses for the index, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. USD steadies after recent losses "Markets have little news to go on, however; US yields are tracking a little higher and comments from key Fed policymakers (Waller) indicate that policy will remain on hold until the inflation 'bump' (In Waller’s words) fades. Yield spreads may offer the USD a little support in general terms in the short run as markets continue to consider tariff risks and their consequences." "Broader trends in FX may remain flat until more clarity on the tariff situation develops. The MXN is a moderate outperformer on the session, with the AUD not so far behind. The RBA—finally—joined the global central bank easing movement with a 25bps cut (its first since the pandemic) in the cash rate to 4.10%. However, Governor Bullock cautioned that the move should not be interpreted as an endorsement of market pricing for further cuts ahead." "The RBNZ is expected to deliver a 50bps cut in its key rate this evening (20ET). US data reports today include the February Empire Survey and the NAHB Housing Market Index. The Fed’s Daly and Barr speak later in the session."

14:31 US Dollar goes nowhere with traders eyeing US-Russia talks to end Ukraine war
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is bracing for a possible pivotal outcome and trades slightly below 107.00 at the time of writing on Tuesday.

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Traders are on edge over any possible headlines on US-Russia talks that might come out of Saudi Arabia this Tuesday. The US Dollar Index (DXY) resides and looks for a direction in the 106.50-107.00 region. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is bracing for a possible pivotal outcome and trades slightly below 107.00 at the time of writing on Tuesday. Several United States (US) officials are meeting Russian counterparts this Tuesday in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, to work out a ceasefire or peace deal for Ukraine. European leaders also met on Monday night to discuss a united peace force and boost military spending in the region. The economic calendar is again rather calm on Tuesday. The main event that could move markets is the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index data for February. Expectations are that manufacturing sector business activity declined in New York but at a slower pace than in January.Daily digest market movers: Keep your ear on the squawkTraders will need to be vigilant for any headlines coming out of Riyadh, where US and Russian officials are meeting for talks in the runup to the first meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin to agree on a deal to end the war. At 13:30 GMT, the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index for February is expected to come in still in contraction but at a slower pace than in January, falling to -1 compared to the previous -12.60. At 15:00 GMT, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) will release its Housing Market Index for February, which is expected to rise steadily by 47, from 47 in January. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly and Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr will speak later this Tuesday at 15:20 GMT and 18:00 GMT, respectively. Equities are mixed going into this Tuesday. European ones are struggling while US futures are in the green. The CME FedWatch tool shows a 49.8% chance that interest rates will remain unchanged at current levels in June. The US 10-year yield is trading around 4.51% and will remain closed for trading this Monday.US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Uncertainty acrossThe US Dollar Index (DXY) is facing too many loose ends to choose a surefooted direction. Plenty of catalysts and headlines are still expected, ranging from headlines on Ukraine and Europe to more details on US President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, all ahead of this weekend’s German election. The US Dollar could start to outperform if a peace deal is brokered without Europe, missing the opportunity to play an important role in the new world order. On the upside, the previous support at 107.35 has now turned into a firm resistance. Further up, the 55-day SMA at 107.92 must be regained before reclaiming 108.00. On the downside, look for 106.52 (April 16, 2024, high), 106.45 (100-day SMA), or even 105.89 (resistance in June 2024) as support levels. As the Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum indicator in the daily chart shows room for more downside, the 200-day SMA at 104.94 could be a possible outcome. US Dollar Index: Daily Chart US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

13:35 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rebounds strongly to near $32.50 as Fed guides steady policy stance
Silver price (XAG/USD) bounces back strongly to near $32.50 in Tuesday’s European session.

12:08 USD/CHF Price Forecast: Strives for firm footing above 0.9000
The USD/CHF pair surrenders its intraday gains and falls back to near the psychological level of 0.9000 in European trading hours on Tuesday.

12:04 USD/CNH can decline to the major support at 7.2300 – UOB Group
US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a range between 7.2500 and 7.2780 vs the Chinese Yuan (CNH).

US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a range between 7.2500 and 7.2780 vs the Chinese Yuan (CNH). In the longer run, increase in momentum suggests USD could decline to the major support at 7.2300, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Above 7.2960, USD/CNH to stop targeting the downside 24-HOUR VIEW: "Yesterday, when USD was at 7.2600, we highlighted the followings: 'As long as USD remains below 7.2800 (minor resistance is at 7.2710), it could dip below 7.2500 before stabilisation is likely. This time around, the major support at 7.2300 is unlikely to come into view.' Our view was not wrong, as USD fell to 7.2428, rebounded to 7.2677 and then closed largely unchanged at 7.2648 (+0.09%). USD has likely entered a range trading phase. Today, we expect it to trade between 7.2500 and 7.2780." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Our update from yesterday (17 Feb, spot at 7.2600) is still valid. As highlighted, 'the increase in downward momentum suggests USD could decline the major support level at 7.2300.' A breach of 7.2960 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level) will invalidate our view.”

12:03 German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index jumps to 26 in February vs. 15.5 expected
The headline German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index jumped to 26 in February from 10.3 in January, beating the market forecast of 15.5 by a wide margin.

Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index climbed to 26 in February.EUR/USD holds losses above 1.0450 after German and Eurozone ZEW surveys.The headline German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index jumped to 26 in February from 10.3 in January, beating the market forecast of 15.5 by a wide margin. The Current Situation Index improved to -88.5 in the same period, compared with January’s -90.4. Data beat the estimated -90 print. The Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index came in at 24.2 in February versus 18 in January. The market expectations was for a 24.3 figure. Key points Rising optimism is probably due to hopes for a new German government capable of action. After a period of absent demand, private consumption can be expected to gain momentum in the next six months. The recent move by the ECB to cut interest rates in response to sluggish economic activity in the monetary union is likely to have contributed to the better outlook for the construction industry. Market reaction The EUR/USD pair remains under selling pressure after the mixed German and Eurozone ZEW surveys. The pair is losing 0.16% on the day to trade near 1.0460, as of writing.

12:01 Eurozone ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment below forecasts (24.3) in February: Actual (24.2)
Eurozone ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment below forecasts (24.3) in February: Actual (24.2)

12:00 Germany ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment registered at 26 above expectations (15.5) in February
Germany ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment registered at 26 above expectations (15.5) in February

12:00 Germany ZEW Survey – Current Situation came in at -88.5, above expectations (-90) in February
Germany ZEW Survey – Current Situation came in at -88.5, above expectations (-90) in February

11:56 USD/JPY: To consolidate on the day – OCBC
USD/JPY rebounded today, tracking USD’s modest bounce after back-to-back session of declines.

USD/JPY rebounded today, tracking USD’s modest bounce after back-to-back session of declines. USD/JPY was last at 151.87 levels, Danske Bank's FX analyst Mohamad Al-Saraf reports. Consolidation likely in the interim "Daily momentum is flat while RSI rose slightly. Consolidation likely in the interim. Resistance at 152.70 (200 DMA), 153.50/85 levels (21, 100 DMAs) and 154.30 levels. Support at 151.50 (38.2% fibo retracement of Sep low to Jan high), 150 levels." "Elsewhere, tariff concerns remain to some extent as reciprocal tariffs may affect Japan. This can prove tricky for JPY’s near-term outlook though we also noted that Japan is attempting to seek exemptions with regards to Trump’s proposed reciprocal tariffs." "Ministry of Foreign Affairs Takeshi Iwaya also raised the issue of automobile tariffs and sought exclusion from the 25% tariff on imported steel and aluminium products at the Munich Security Conference last Friday."

11:51 EUR/GBP declines to and below 0.8300 – Danske Bank
EUR/GBP declined close to the 0.8300 mark during yesterday's session.

EUR/GBP declined close to the 0.8300 mark during yesterday's session. GBP FX is in for an eventful week packed with macro data releases , Danske Bank's FX analyst Mohamad Al-Saraf reports. EUR/GBP to trade lower in weeks to come "This morning, we get the labour market report for December/January. Consensus expects a pick up in wage growth and unemployment to rise to 4.5% from 4.4%. Payrolls have come in to the weak side the past months and vacancies have edged lower with surveys indicating a further weakening in labour demand." "We think the BoE is set for the next cut in May. We also published a note on how the notion of US tariffs affects the UK and by extension GBP. Overall, the UK looks better insulated against possible US tariffs on UK goods than the euro area." "The UK mainly exports services to the US, it does not have a big US-trade deficit and US President Trump has a better relationship with UK PM Starmer. We think this favours GBP vs EUR, supporting our strategically bearish view on EUR/GBP."

11:47 USD/JPY: Can edge below 151.00 – UOB Group
US Dollar (USD) could edge below 151.00 vs Japanese Yen (JPY), but it remains to be seen if it can maintain a foothold below this level.

US Dollar (USD) could edge below 151.00 vs Japanese Yen (JPY), but it remains to be seen if it can maintain a foothold below this level. In the longer run, there has been a tentative buildup in downward momentum; USD must break and remain below 151.00 before further weakness is likely, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Downward momentum builds up 24-HOUR VIEW: "The following are the excerpts from our update yesterday: 'There has been a tentative buildup in downward momentum. Today, USD is likely to edge lower, but it is unlikely to reach the major support at 151.00 (there is another support level at 151.60). Resistance is at 152.50; a breach of 152.85 would indicate that the buildup in momentum has faded.' USD then fell to a low of 151.32, closing on a soft note at 151.50 (-0.54%). There has been a tentative buildup in downward momentum, and USD is likely to continue to edge lower today. While it could break below 151.00, it remains to be seen if it can maintain a foothold below this level. On the upside, a breach of 152.15 (minor resistance is at 151.85) would mean that the buildup in momentum has faded." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Last Friday (14 Feb, spot at 152.70), we noted that the recent 'upward momentum has largely faded.' We indicated that USD 'is likely to trade in a 151.00/155.00 range for the time being.' Yesterday, USD fell to a low of 151.32, and there has been a tentative buildup in downward momentum. That said, USD must break and remain below 151.00 before further weakness can be expected. The likelihood of USD breaking clearly below 151.00 will remain intact, provided that 152.75 is not breached."

11:41 Gold in second day of gains with US and Russian officials meeting for peace talks
Gold’s price (XAU/USD) is rallying near 0.50% this Tuesday at the start of the European trading session, with the precious metal trading around $2,910 at the time of writing.

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Markets brace for headlines to come in from Saudi Arabia where US and Russian officials are meeting. A daily close above $2,910 could put Gold on track for a new all-time high this week. Gold’s price (XAU/USD) is rallying near 0.50% this Tuesday at the start of the European trading session, with the precious metal trading around $2,910 at the time of writing. US yields are catching up on events after the US President’s Day holiday on Monday. Still, Gold is in favor of traders as a safe haven for tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) President of Philadelphia Patrick Harker advocated on Monday night for the central bank to keep interest rates unchanged. He pointed out that recent inflation reports and gauges are not tracking economic changes that are currently taking place. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly and Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr will speak later this Tuesday at 15:20 GMT and 18:00 GMT, respectively. Daily digest market movers: Geopolitics take overGoldman Sachs raised its year-end gold target to $3,100 an ounce due to central bank buying and inflows into bullion-backed exchange-traded funds, Reuters reports. Gold shipments from Singapore to the US climbed to the highest level in almost three years in January, a further sign of the ructions in bullion trading after pricing disparities opened up in key markets. Gold shipments from Singapore to the US reached 11 tons in January, up 27% from December, Bloomberg reports. The US administration has asked European nations to explain what security guarantees they’re willing to provide to Ukraine as part of a peace deal. The move followed United States (US) President Donald Trump’s push to begin talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Investors are still analyzing more details of the US reciprocal tariff plans, which could take months to implement due to their complexity. Trump’s trade policies have become increasingly muddled due to delays and exclusions, with concerns about the impact on the global economy aiding bullion’s role as a store of value.Technical Analysis: RSI at boiling point Gold is climbing the ladder again this week, that stairway to new all-time highs. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator in the daily chart is starting to flash overbought signals again, warning that the price action is overheating. With these elevated levels in RSI, buyers could be reluctant to buy more and wait for the Gold price to cool down to better levels before buying. After Monday’s not-so-big move, the daily pivots have been reshuffled and are moving closer together. The first support is seen at $2,893, which is the daily Pivot Point. It has already served as support during the Asian trading session. Should this level come under threat again on Tuesday, the S1 support at $2,881 could do its duty. On the upside, the R1 resistance at $2,909 is being reclaimed at the time of writing. A daily close above this level would be a healthy bullish signal for more upside into Wednesday. The R2 resistance at $2,921 is the next level to be recovered before considering a fresh all-time high, currently at $2,942.XAU/USD: Daily Chart Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

11:40 Tariffs continue to be the main driver of USD/CAD – Danske Bank
Today focus in CAD FX turns to the January inflation figures at 14:30 CET , Danske Bank's FX analyst Mohamad Al-Saraf reports.

Today focus in CAD FX turns to the January inflation figures at 14:30 CET , Danske Bank's FX analyst Mohamad Al-Saraf reports. USD/CAD to climb higher towards 1.45 "January is the only full month during which the temporary general sales tax break is in effect. While the effect was only partial in December, headline inflation was somewhat weaker than expected at 1.8% y/y (cons: 1.9%)." "Hence, risks are tilted to the downside, though consensus expects a slight uptick in the headline figure to 1.9% y/y. The market reaction is likely to be muted, as tariffs continue to be the main driver of USD/CAD." "Looking ahead, we continue to believe that tariffs will be the overarching trigger of any moves in the near-term - however on a 12M horizon, we project the cross to climb higher towards 1.45 amid our bullish outlook on the USD."

11:39 Bailey speech: We are facing a weak growth environment in the UK
Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey participated in a panel discussion titled "Preserving and enhancing open financial markets" at an event hosted by Bruegel, in Brussels, on Tuesday.

Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey participated in a panel discussion titled "Preserving and enhancing open financial markets" at an event hosted by Bruegel, in Brussels, on Tuesday. Key quotes We are in a period of heightened uncertainty. We are facing a weak growth environment in the UK.

11:33 DXY: Bears pause for now – OCBC
US Dollar (USD) firmed overnight on comments from Fed’s Waller.

US Dollar (USD) firmed overnight on comments from Fed’s Waller. He spoke about preferring to keep rates on hold for now until it is clear that inflation is fading (like it did in 2024). DXY rebounded modestly; last at 106.96, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Near term rebound risks not ruled out "But Waller did question if Jan CPI figures had been properly adjusted for seasonal factors as there were some patterns over the past few years of higher inflation readings at the start of the year. He went on to emphasise that Fed’s favoured gauge of inflation is still the PCE price index – and that was less alarming. Next release of Jan core PCE price index is on 28 Feb." "Waller acknowledged that the new Trump administration’s policies had introduced a degree of uncertainty but cautioned against allowing that to delay the Fed’s response to economic data. He also reiterated that tariffs imposed by Trump administration would ‘only modestly increase prices in a non-persistent manner'." "Daily momentum is bearish while RSI shows signs of turning higher from near oversold conditions. Near term rebound risks not ruled out. Resistance at 107.30, 107.80 (23.6% fibo, 21 DMA) and 108.50 levels. Support at 106.20/40 levels (100 DMA, 38.2% fibo retracement of Oct low to Jan high)."

11:30 South Africa Unemployment Rate (%) down to 31.9% in 4Q from previous 32.1%
South Africa Unemployment Rate (%) down to 31.9% in 4Q from previous 32.1%

11:30 South Africa Unemployment Total : 7.991M (4Q) vs previous 8.011M
South Africa Unemployment Total : 7.991M (4Q) vs previous 8.011M

11:30 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Tuesday, according to FXStreet data.

11:26 EUR/USD corrects as US Dollar rebounds on Fed’s restrictive policy stance
EUR/USD declines to near 1.0450 in Tuesday’s European session after failing to hold above the psychological resistance of 1.0500 in the last two trading days.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD falls to near 1.0450 as the US Dollar rebounds after Fed officials guided that there is no need to make policy adjustments at least for now.ECB’s Nagel warned that President Trump’s tariffs will be more vulnerable for Germany.Investors await FOMC minutes, which will be released on Wednesday.EUR/USD declines to near 1.0450 in Tuesday’s European session after failing to hold above the psychological resistance of 1.0500 in the last two trading days. The major currency pair slumps as the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, rebounds after attracting bids near a two-month low and recovers to near 107.00 at the press time. The Greenback discovers buying interest as investors weigh in expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates in the current range of 4.25%-4.50% for a longer period. On Monday, a slew of Fed officials stated that the monetary policy does not need to be adjusted in the current scenario. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said in her prepared remarks at the American Bankers Association conference that she would like to gain “greater confidence” that progress in lowering inflation will “continue” as we consider making further adjustments. Bowman added that a steady interest rate stance for now also provides the opportunity to review further “indicators of economic activity“ and get further clarity on the “administration's policies and their effects on the economy." Meanwhile, Philadelphia Fed Bank President Patrick Harker said there are “reasons” enough to hold the “policy rate steady right now,” such as resilient economic growth, a balanced labor market, and still-elevated inflationary pressures. Harker didn’t commit to a timeframe but was optimistic that inflation would ease over time. For more cues about the monetary policy outlook, investors will focus on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the January policy meeting, which will be released on Wednesday. In the policy meeting, the Fed announced a pause in the monetary easing cycle, which started in September. Fed Chair Jerome Powell guided that monetary policy adjustments would be appropriate only when officials would see “real progress in inflation or at least some weakness in the labor market”. Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD slumps as US Dollar bounces back The corrective move in the EUR/USD pair is also driven by some weakness in the Euro (EUR). The outlook for the shared currency is uncertain, as European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel has warned that US tariffs could weigh on the German economic outlook, which has already suffered from economic contraction for the last two years. "Our strong export orientation makes us particularly vulnerable," Nagel said in his speech at the Speaker's Luncheon of the Union International Club on Monday. He added that the economic output in 2027 would be almost 1.5% lower than their prior forecast. Currently, the Bundesbank sees the German economy growing by 0.2% this year and 0.8% in 2026. Fears of US tariffs on Germany escalated after US President Donald Trump announced during the weekend that he plans to impose tariffs on imported cars starting around April 2. According to data from OEC, the German economy exported $24.3 billion worth of cars to the US in 2023. Meanwhile, firm expectations that the ECB will cut interest rates three times more this year have also capped the Euro’s upside. ECB dovish bets are based on growing risks of inflation undershooting the central bank’s target of 2%. Technical Analysis: EUR/USD drops from 1.0500 EUR/USD falls after facing resistance near the psychological hurdle of 1.0500. However, the outlook for the major currency pair is still bullish as it holds above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which stands at around 1.0430. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) struggles to break above 60.00. A bullish momentum would activate if the RSI (14) manages to sustain above that level. Looking down, the February 10 low of 1.0285 will act as the major support zone for the pair. Conversely, the December 6 high of 1.0630 will be the key barrier for the Euro bulls. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

11:24 NZD/USD: Can potentially rise to 0.5790 – UOB Group
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is likely to trade between 0.5710 and 0.5745 vs US Dollar (USD).

New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is likely to trade between 0.5710 and 0.5745 vs US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, price action suggests further NZD strength, potentially to 0.5790, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Price action suggests further NZD strength 24-HOUR VIEW: "When NZD was at 0.5730 yesterday, we highlighted that it 'could test 0.5755 before levelling off.' We also highlighted that 'the major resistance at 0.5790 is unlikely to come under threat.' NZD rose less than expected to 0.5750 before easing off to close at 0.5738 (+0.09%). NZD has likely entered a range trading phase and is likely to trade between 0.5710 and 0.5745 today." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We turned positive in NZD yesterday (17 Feb, spot at 0.5730), indicating that 'the price action suggests further NZD strength, potentially to 0.5790.' There is no change in our view. To sustain the buildup in momentum, NZD must remain above 0.5675 (‘strong support’ level was at 0.5665 yesterday). Meanwhile, it could trade in a range for a couple of days."

11:18 Copper retreats from three-month highs – ING
LME copper retreated from over three-month highs on Monday, while the benchmark cash-to-three-month spread – having moved into backwardation for the first time since June 2023 on Friday – has now eased back to contango.

LME copper retreated from over three-month highs on Monday, while the benchmark cash-to-three-month spread – having moved into backwardation for the first time since June 2023 on Friday – has now eased back to contango. Short-covering on the LME ahead of contract expiry amid expectations of US tariffs on copper triggered a sharp move in the key copper spread last week, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey notes. LME spread eases back to contango "US President Donald Trump has threatened to slap tariffs on copper but said it will take a little longer to implement than those on aluminium and steel announced last week. The threat of tariffs has led to expectations of temporary tightness in the US copper market, with traders shifting metal from the global LME warehouses to the US to take advantage of the arbitrage." "The premium for US Comex copper futures over the LME contract surged to a record high last week, reaching as high as $1,200/t during Friday’s trading session – more than 10% of the LME price. That spread came off that record to above $900 yesterday." "The US is reliant on around 45% of copper imports for its domestic consumption. Chile is the country's biggest supplier at 35%, followed by Canada at 26%. If implemented, tariffs would be bearish for copper and other industrial metals in the context of slowing global growth and keeping inflation higher for longer. With growth in the US likely to slow on the back of tariffs and China already struggling to revive its economy, demand for copper and other industrial metals is likely to weaken."

11:15 WTI rises above $71.50 due to supply disruptions from Kazakhstan
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude Oil price continues its upward momentum for the second consecutive day, trading around $71.70 per barrel during European hours on Tuesday.

11:14 Australia: RBA delivers first rate cut since Nov 2020 – UOB Group
As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to lower the cash rate target by 25bps to 4.10% and the interest rate paid on Exchange Settlement balances to 4.00%.

As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to lower the cash rate target by 25bps to 4.10% and the interest rate paid on Exchange Settlement balances to 4.00%. This is the first interest rate cut in more than four years, with the RBA citing some progress towards bringing down inflation. The central bank kept the policy rate steady since Nov 2023, following an extended period of 13 rate hikes to tame domestic inflation, UOB Group's Economist Lee Sue Ann notes. RBA decides to lower rate targets "As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut interest rates for the first time in more than four years, citing some progress towards bringing down inflation. The central bank kept the policy rate steady since Nov 2023, following an extended period of 13 rate hikes to tame domestic inflation." "Nonetheless, today’s decision was a cautious one. The RBA warned that further monetary easing still hinged on more downside in inflation, and that if monetary policy is eased too much too soon, disinflation could stall, and inflation would settle above the midpoint of the target range. A tight labour market is also holding the RBA’s hand." "All eyes will now turn to 4Q24 wage data on 19 Feb, followed by Jan’s employment figures on 20 Feb. We currently pencil in a total of 100bps of easing in 2025 (including today’s 25bps cut), taking the cash rate target to a terminal level of 3.35%. Note that there will be no meeting in Mar, and the next RBA meeting will be on 1 Apr, where we are expecting a pause."

11:07 AUD/USD: Expected to trade in a 0.6335/0.6370 range – UOB Group
Australian Dollar (AUD) is expected to trade in a 0.6335/0.6370 range vs the US Dollar (USD).

Australian Dollar (AUD) is expected to trade in a 0.6335/0.6370 range vs the US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, momentum remains strong; AUD could continue to advance, potentially to 0.6410, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. AUD can continue to advance 24-HOUR VIEW: "Following AUD sharp rise last Friday, we pointed out yesterday that 'the rally appears to be overdone, and AUD is unlikely to rise much further.' We expected AUD to 'trade in a 0.6325/0.6375 range.' AUD subsequently traded in a narrower range than expected (0.6346/0.6374), closing largely unchanged at 0.6357 (+0.06%). We continue to expect range trading today, but the softened underlying tone suggests a lower range of 0.6335/0.6370." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Our update from yesterday (17 Feb, spot at 0.6355) remains valid. As highlighted, 'momentum remains strong, and we continue to expect AUD to advance, potentially to 0.6410.' On the downside, should AUD break below 0.6290 (no change in ‘strong support’ level from yesterday), it would mean that 0.6410 is out of reach for now."

11:02 AUD: A hawkish cut by the RBA – ING
The Reserve Bank of Australia cut rates for the first time in four years this morning, matching consensus and market expectations.

The Reserve Bank of Australia cut rates for the first time in four years this morning, matching consensus and market expectations. The 25bp reduction was accompanied by some rather hawkish remarks by Governor Michele Bullock, both in the statement and in the press conference, ING’s FX analysts Francesco Pesole notes. AUD/USD to return to 0.62 by the end of March "Bullock seemed to focus on pushing back against the dovish repricing in the AUD curve, reiterating that the focus remains firmly on inflation risk. That approach is in contrast with those of other developed central banks which have shifted towards growth concerns." "Markets are pricing just under two cuts in Australia by the end of 2025, while we have a slightly more dovish forecast with one cut per quarter. Bullock’s cautious tone on further easing has allowed AUD to counter the USD rebound this morning. That said, we doubt markets are ready to shift expectations to only one RBA cut this year, and AUD’s high exposure to the trade story and risk sentiment may quickly overcome any short-term benefits from the RBA’s tone today." "We still think a return to 0.62 in AUD/USD is warranted by the end of March, with further downside risks in the second and third quarters when US protectionism may intensify."

11:00 Canada CPI expected to print at 1.8% in January
This Tuesday, Statistics Canada will unveil its latest inflation report for January, based on data from the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

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50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Canadian Consumer Price Index is seen increasing 1.8% YoY in January.The Bank of Canada reduced its interest rate by 25 basis points in January.The Canadian Dollar maintains the area of yearly highs vs. the US Dollar.This Tuesday, Statistics Canada will unveil its latest inflation report for January, based on data from the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Early forecasts suggest that headline inflation held steady at 1.8% compared with January of last year. In addition, the Bank of Canada (BoC) is also stepping into the spotlight with its core CPI data, which cuts out the more unpredictable items like food and energy. For a bit of context: December’s core CPI dipped by 0.3% from the previous month, though it still marked a 1.8% rise from a year earlier, while headline inflation was up by 1.8% annually and dropped 0.4% on a monthly basis. These numbers carry the potential to impact the Canadian Dollar (CAD). The BoC's approach to interest rates is key here. Since easing began in June 2024, the central bank has slashed its policy rate by 200 basis points, lowering it to 3.00% as of January 29. Meanwhile, the CAD has been on a positive ride, steadily regaining value in the last couple of weeks. In fact, USD/CAD has dropped to two-month lows during last week, revisiting the 1.4150 region and extending its rejection from yearly peaks around the 1.4800 barrier recorded at the beginning of the month. What can we expect from Canada’s inflation rate? According to the meeting Minutes published on February 12, the rate cut of 25 basis points was driven by both concerns over tariff threats and a desire to bolster growth. Last month, the Bank of Canada noted that the persistent threat of tariffs was obscuring its forecasts with members admitting that predicting US trade policy was impossible. Following the latest BoC gathering on January 29, Governor Tiff Macklem said that a significant increase in tariffs would initially push prices — and consequently inflation — up, noting that the lags in monetary policy meant there was little that could be done about that immediate effect. He explained that the key concern was to prevent that initial price surge from spreading to other prices and wages, which could lead to persistent inflation. He emphasised that while inflation was expected to rise, the focus would be on ensuring it eventually returned to 2%, as allowing a sustained increase would not be good for Canadians. Previewing the data release, analysts at BBH note: “Canada highlight will be January CPI data Tuesday. Headline is expected at 1.9% y/y vs. 1.8% in December, core median is expected to remain steady at 2.4% y/y, and core trim is expected at 2.6% y/y vs. 2.5% in December. The GST/HST holiday (from December 14, 2024 to February 15, 2025) will pull down inflation in January, particularly in categories such as food services and semi-durable goods. The Bank of Canada projects headline and core CPI inflation to average 2.1% and 2.5% over Q1, respectively. The BoC has room to ease further, though at a more gradual pace because inflation has been around 2% since August. The market is pricing in 50 bp of easing over the next 12 months that would see the policy rate bottom at 2.50%”. When is the Canada CPI data due and how could it affect USD/CAD? Canada's January inflation report will be published on Tuesday at 13:30 GMT, and all eyes will be on whether the data throws any curveballs. If the numbers stick to expectations, the Bank of Canada’s current rate outlook will likely stay on track. Meanwhile, USD/CAD has been trading in a bearish trend since the beginning of the month, dropping as low as the 1.4150 zone on February 14 — the lowest level in the last couple of months. In addition, the pair retreated for the second week in a row, shedding nearly 7 cents from year-to-date highs of around 1.4800 recorded earlier in the month. Pablo Piovano, Senior Analyst at FXStreet, believes that despite the ongoing recovery, the Canadian Dollar should remain under pressure from US Dollar dynamics and the tariffs narrative in the medium term. “Bullish attempts should lead USD/CAD to a potential visit to the interim 55-day SMA at 1.4305, prior to the 2025 high of 1.4792 reached on February 3,” Piovano explains. On the downside, there’s initial support around the 2025 bottom of 1.4150 (recorded on February 14), followed by the provisional 100-day SMA at 1.4090 and the key psychological threshold of 1.4000. A breach of the latter could trigger additional selling pressure. Targets would move toward the significant 200-day SMA at 1.3816, then the November low of 1.3823, and finally the September low of 1.3418, according to Piovano. Economic Indicator BoC Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) The BoC Consumer Price Index Core, released by the Bank of Canada (BoC) on a monthly basis, represents changes in prices for Canadian consumers by comparing the cost of a fixed basket of goods and services. It is considered a measure of underlying inflation as it excludes eight of the most-volatile components: fruits, vegetables, gasoline, fuel oil, natural gas, mortgage interest, intercity transportation and tobacco products. The MoM figure compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the previous month. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Canadian Dollar (CAD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Tue Feb 18, 2025 13:30 Frequency: MonthlyConsensus: -Previous: -0.3%Source: Statistics Canada Inflation FAQs What is inflation? Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%. What is the Consumer Price Index (CPI)? The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls. What is the impact of inflation on foreign exchange? Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money. How does inflation influence the price of Gold? Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.

10:55 GBP/USD: To edge higher in short term – UOB Group
Scope for Pound Sterling (GBP) to edge higher vs US Dollar (USD), but any advance is likely part of a higher trading range of 1.2580/1.2655.

Scope for Pound Sterling (GBP) to edge higher vs US Dollar (USD), but any advance is likely part of a higher trading range of 1.2580/1.2655. Further GBP strength appears likely; the focus is at 1.2655, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Further GBP strength appears likely 24-HOUR VIEW: "After GBP rose to 1.2631 last Friday and then pulled back, we indicated yesterday that 'the pullback in overbought conditions suggests that GBP is unlikely to rise much further.' We expected GBP to 'trade in a range between 1.2540 and 1.2620.' However, GBP edged to a high of 1.2635 before closing at 1.2626 (+0.33%). While there is scope for GBP to continue to edge higher, any advance is likely part of a higher trading range of 1.2580/1.2655. In other words, GBP is unlikely to break clearly above 1.2655." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "There is not much to add to our update from yesterday (17 Feb, spot at 1.2580). As highlighted, 'further GBP strength appears likely, and the focus now is at 1.2655.' On the downside, a breach of 1.2525 (‘strong support’ level was at 1.2480 yesterday) would suggest that GBP is not strengthening further."

10:51 USD: Fading bearish momentum – ING
Our baseline view for this week has been that the dollar correction has run its course, and we still favour chasing a USD rebound against other G10 currencies.

Our baseline view for this week has been that the dollar correction has run its course, and we still favour chasing a USD rebound against other G10 currencies. There is admittedly some residual room for a risk-on/dollar-off move once a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal is agreed, but markets are largely pricing it in at this stage and there are no guarantees for now that it will allow to price out longer-run geopolitical risk, ING’s FX analysts Francesco Pesole notes. US-Russia bilateral talks attract market attention "Today, markets will remain focused on any developments on the US-Russia bilateral talks on Ukraine, but barring a major breakthrough, the optimistic push and relative upbeat risk sentiment may stall or fade in the next couple of days and the dollar can continue to recover some ground." "Also on the positioning side, there is some evidence that the dollar longs are slightly less stretched. CFTC USD positioning versus G10 currencies excluding SEK and NOK (which are not reported) has inched back lower to a seven-week low, albeit remaining above +20% of open interest." "Macro developments will likely play a secondary role this week, with the exception of tomorrow’s FOMC minutes. Today’s Empire Manufacturing index and TIC flows out of the US should have limited market impact."

10:42 EUR/USD: expected to consolidate in a 1.0455/1.0505 range – UOB Group
Euro (EUR) is expected to consolidate vs the US Dollar (USD) in a 1.0455/1.0505 range.

Euro (EUR) is expected to consolidate vs the US Dollar (USD) in a 1.0455/1.0505 range. In the longer run, outlook for EUR is positive, with a technical target of 1.0530, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Outlook for EUR looks positive 24-HOUR VIEW: "We indicated yesterday that 'the combination of slowing momentum and overbought conditions suggests that instead of continuing to rise, EUR is more likely to consolidate within a 1.0455/1.0515 range.' Our view of consolidation was not wrong, even though EUR traded in a narrower range than expected (1.0466/1.0506). The price movements did not result in an increase in either downward or upward momentum, and we continue to expect EUR to consolidate. Expected range for today: 1.0455/1.0505." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Our update from last Friday (14 Feb, spot at 1.0460) remains valid. As highlighted, 'the outlook for EUR is positive, with a technical target of 1.0530.' Overall, only a breach of 1.0415 (‘strong support’ level was at 1.0400 yesterday) would indicate that the current upward pressure has faded."

10:34 Forex Today: Pound Sterling finds support on jobs data, RBA cuts policy rate by 25 bps
Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, February 18: The trading action in foreign exchange markets remains choppy early Tuesday as investors' search for the next catalyst continues.

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The European economic calendar will feature February ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment for Germany and the Eurozone. Later in the day, January Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from Canada will be watched closely by market participants. Following a three-day weekend, bond markets in the US reopened and the yield on the 10-year reference recovered above 4.5% early Tuesday, supporting the US Dollar (USD). After ending the first day of the week virtually unchanged, the USD Index clings to modest daily gains near 107.00 early Tuesday. Several Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers will be delivering speeches later in the American session. US Dollar PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Euro. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.26% -0.23% -0.18% 0.07% -0.11% 0.16% 0.06% EUR -0.26% -0.34% -0.48% -0.10% -0.29% -0.00% -0.10% GBP 0.23% 0.34% -0.06% 0.25% 0.11% 0.34% 0.24% JPY 0.18% 0.48% 0.06% 0.25% 0.11% 0.55% 0.22% CAD -0.07% 0.10% -0.25% -0.25% -0.16% 0.09% -0.01% AUD 0.11% 0.29% -0.11% -0.11% 0.16% 0.28% 0.19% NZD -0.16% 0.00% -0.34% -0.55% -0.09% -0.28% -0.10% CHF -0.06% 0.10% -0.24% -0.22% 0.00% -0.19% 0.10% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announced early Tuesday that it lowered the policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.1% from 4.35%. This decision came in line with the market expectation. Based on its revised projections, the RBA said that disinflation could stall and inflation would settle above the midpoint of the target range if monetary policy were to be eased too much too soon. In the post-meeting press conference, Governor Michele Bullock noted that further rate cuts implied by the market are not guaranteed. AUD/USD showed no immediate reaction to the RBA event and was last seen trading flat on the day at around 0.6350. The UK's Office for National Statistics reported early Tuesday that the ILO Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.4% in the three months to December. This reading came in better than the market expectation of 4.5%. Other details of the report showed that the Employment Change was 107,000 in the same period, up sharply from the 35,000 recorded for the previous month. GBP/USD edges slightly higher following the labor market data and trades little changed on the day above 1.2600. After losing nearly 0.8% last week, USD/CAD stays in a consolidation phase slightly below 1.4200 this week. The CPI in Canada is forecast to rise 1.8% on a yearly basis in January, matching December's increase.EUR/USD stays under modest bearish pressure but manages to hold above 1.0450 in the European morning on Tuesday.Gold holds its ground and trades in positive territory above $2,900 after posting modest gains on Monday. Central banks FAQs What does a central bank do? Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%. What does a central bank do when inflation undershoots or overshoots its projected target? A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing. Who decides on monetary policy and interest rates? A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%. Is there a president or head of a central bank? Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.

10:28 US Dollar Index Price Forecast: Holds gains around 107.00 despite increased bearish bias
The US Dollar Index (DXY) ticks higher on Tuesday, hovering around 107.00 during European trading hours after three consecutive sessions of losses.

10:27 EUR: No help from joint defence spending – ING
The ongoing discussion among EU leaders for a joint fund for defence spending is unlikely to drive much support for European currencies.

The ongoing discussion among EU leaders for a joint fund for defence spending is unlikely to drive much support for European currencies. That’s because the trigger is US President Donald Trump’s threat to scale back military support for NATO borders in Europe, which is hardly a net-positive development for local currencies, ING’s FX analysts Francesco Pesole notes. EUR/USD to trade 1.02 in the end of the quarter "It is equally far-fetched to hope any such EU coordination on common spending will be replicated on the fiscal side to counter US protectionism. The eurozone’s structural unpreparedness to face the economic consequences of Trump’s tariffs continues to form the basis of our bearish EUR view. Market pricing on the European Central Bank is around -75bp for year-end, but we think four more cuts this year (to 1.75%) will be warranted." "EUR/USD has obliterated the negative risk premium related to US tariffs. Remember in mid-January that amounted to 3% of undervaluation, according to our short-term fair value model. It seems that the Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations have offset the tariff threat in FX." "However, the latter likely have more tangible implications for the ECB, the economy, and by extension the euro, and we therefore favour a lower EUR/USD. Our forecast for the end of this quarter is 1.02."

10:07 Pound Sterling rebounds after upbeat UK employment, strong wage growth data
The Pound Sterling (GBP) bounces back against its major peers on Tuesday after the release of upbeat United Kingdom (UK) labor market data for the three months ending December.

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The UK economy added 107K workers and the jobless rate remained steady at 4.4%, lower than estimates of 4.5%. Investors await the UK CPI data and the FOMC minutes on Wednesday. The Pound Sterling (GBP) bounces back against its major peers on Tuesday after the release of upbeat United Kingdom (UK) labor market data for the three months ending December. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that the economy added 107K workers, significantly higher than the 35K seen in the September-November period. The ILO Unemployment Rate remained steady at 4.4%, while it was anticipated to have accelerated to 4.5%. Investors were worried about the employment data as business owners had been disappointed with Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves’s announcement of raising employers’ contribution to National Insurance (NI). In the Autumn Budget, Reeves increased employers' social security contributions by 1.2% to 15%, which will come into effect from April. The employment data also seems to be contradictory to Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey’s warning that he sees some softness in the labor market, as he said in an interview with BusinessLive on Monday. In the interview, Bailey also said that the economic outlook sluggish and surprisingly upbeat Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data had not changed the “bigger picture”. In February’s monetary policy statement, the BoE halved its growth forecasts for the year to 0.75%. In addition to strong employment figures, Average Earnings data, a key measure of wage growth, accelerated in the three months ending December. Average Earnings Excluding bonuses accelerated to 5.9%, as expected, from the prior reading of 5.6%. Meanwhile, Average Earnings, Including bonuses, rose by 6%, faster than estimates of 5.9% and the former release of 5.6%. High wage growth momentum would prompt inflation expectations and force the BoE to hold interest rates at 4.5%. Going forward, investors will focus on the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for January, which will be released on Wednesday. Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling recovers significant intraday losses against US Dollar The Pound Sterling recovers most of its intraday losses against the US Dollar (USD) after better-than-expected UK labor market data. Earlier in the day, the GBP/USD pair declined as the US Dollar rebounded. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, rebounds to near 107.00 from the two-month low of 106.50, which it posted on Friday. The Greenback bounces back as investors expect inflationary pressures stemming from United States (US) President Donald Trump’s economic agenda will be persistent. President Trump has announced 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from all nations and 10% on China. However, Trump’s reciprocal tariff plan is delayed and unlikely to come into effect before April. President Trump's nominated Commerce Secretary, Howard Lutnick, said on Thursday that the President will be ready to move on reciprocal tariffs by April 1. Meanwhile, firm expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates at their current levels for longer have also offered support to the US Dollar. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said in her prepared remarks at the American Bankers Association conference on Monday that the benchmark interest rate "is now in a good place”, allowing the Committee to be patient and pay closer attention to the inflation data as it evolves. Bowman added that she wants to gain “greater confidence” that progress in lowering inflation will “continue” before supporting monetary policy adjustments. Going forward, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes for the January meeting, which will be released on Wednesday, will be a major trigger for the US Dollar. Investors will look for cues about how long the Fed will keep interest rates in the current range of 4.25%-4.50%. Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling aims to stabilize above 1.2600The Pound Sterling strives to hold above the key level of 1.2600 against the US Dollar in European trading hours on Tuesday. The near-term outlook of the GBP/USD pair has turned bullish, as it holds above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which stands at around 1.2500. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds above 60.00. A bullish momentum would activate if the RSI (14) sustains above that level. Looking down, the February 3 low of 1.2250 will act as a key support zone for the pair. On the upside, the December 6 high of 1.2810 will act as a key resistance zone. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

10:01 NZD/USD drops to near 0.5700 as traders expect RBNZ to deliver a bumper rate cut
NZD/USD retreats after three consecutive days of gains, trading around 0.5710 during European hours on Tuesday.

09:45 France Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (YoY) meets forecasts (1.8%) in January
France Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (YoY) meets forecasts (1.8%) in January

09:45 France Inflation ex-tobacco (MoM): 0.1% (January) vs previous 0.2%
France Inflation ex-tobacco (MoM): 0.1% (January) vs previous 0.2%

09:45 France Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (MoM) in line with expectations (-0.2%) in January
France Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (MoM) in line with expectations (-0.2%) in January

09:31 GBP/JPY holds gains around 191.50 following UK employment data
GBP/JPY halts its three-day losing streak, trading around 191.50 during the early European hours on Tuesday.

09:30 Switzerland Industrial Production (YoY): 2.3% (4Q) vs previous 3.5%
Switzerland Industrial Production (YoY): 2.3% (4Q) vs previous 3.5%

09:21 EUR/GBP weakens below 0.8300 after mixed UK employment data
The EUR/GBP cross edges lower to near 0.8295 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday.

09:18 Crude Oil price today: WTI price bullish, according to FXStreet data
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Tuesday, according to FXStreet data.

09:14 BoJ’s Ueda: We are aware of views we had not been clear enough in our policy guidance
Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Tuesday, “we are aware of views we had not been clear enough in our policy guidance.” “Last summer's volatility was mainly caused by market concern over weak US jobs data, US economic slowdown,” he added.

Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Tuesday, “we are aware of views we had not been clear enough in our policy guidance.” “Last summer's volatility was mainly caused by market concern over weak US jobs data, US economic slowdown,” he added.

09:06 United Kingdom Claimant Count Rate: 4.6% (January)
United Kingdom Claimant Count Rate: 4.6% (January)

09:01 United Kingdom Average Earnings Excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr) meets forecasts (5.9%) in December
United Kingdom Average Earnings Excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr) meets forecasts (5.9%) in December

09:01 UK Unemployment Rate stays at 4.4% in quarter to December vs. 4.5% expected
The United Kingdom’s (UK) ILO Unemployment Rate remained at 4.4% in the three months to December, the data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed on Tuesday.

09:00 United Kingdom Employment Change (3M) climbed from previous 35K to 107K in December
United Kingdom Employment Change (3M) climbed from previous 35K to 107K in December

09:00 United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) below forecasts (4.5%) in December: Actual (4.4%)
United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) below forecasts (4.5%) in December: Actual (4.4%)

09:00 United Kingdom Average Earnings Including Bonus (3Mo/Yr) came in at 6%, above forecasts (5.9%) in December
United Kingdom Average Earnings Including Bonus (3Mo/Yr) came in at 6%, above forecasts (5.9%) in December

09:00 United Kingdom Claimant Count Change registered at 22K above expectations (10K) in January
United Kingdom Claimant Count Change registered at 22K above expectations (10K) in January

07:58 USD/CAD Price Forecast: First downside target emerges near 1.4150, eyes on Canadian CPI inflation data
The USD/CAD pair trades in positive territory near 1.4205 during the early European session on Tuesday, supported by the firmer Greenback.

07:28 EUR/JPY advances to near159.00 due to increased market optimism
EUR/JPY retraces its recent losses, trading around 159.10 during the Asian hours on Tuesday.

07:18 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD bulls await sustained move beyond $32.55 barrier
Silver (XAG/USD) reverses an Asian session dip to the $32.00 neighborhood and climbs to the top end of its intraday trading range in the last hour.

07:07 USD/CHF strengthens on renewed US Dollar demand
The USD/CHF pair extends its recovery to around 0.9030 during the early European session on Tuesday, bolstered by a firmer US Dollar (USD).

06:40 Gold price ticks higher in a familiar range; holds steady above $2,900 mark
Gold price (XAU/USD) trades with a mild positive bias above the $2,900 mark during the Asian session on Tuesday, though it lacks bullish conviction and remains confined in a familiar range that has held over the past week or so.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold attracts buyers for the second straight day amid concerns about a global trade war.Bets that the Fed would cut rates further lend support to the non-yielding yellow metal. A modest USD uptick might cap gains, though the bias remains tilted in favor of bulls.Gold price (XAU/USD) trades with a mild positive bias above the $2,900 mark during the Asian session on Tuesday, though it lacks bullish conviction and remains confined in a familiar range that has held over the past week or so. Investors remain worried that US President Donald Trump's threat of reciprocal tariffs would trigger a global trade war. This turns out to be a key factor that continues to underpin demand for the safe-haven bullion. Adding to this, expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might cut interest rates further this year, bolstered by the unforeseen drop in US Retail Sales, offers support to the non-yielding Gold price. That said, a goodish bounce in the US Treasury bond yields and a modest US Dollar (USD) uptick hold back the XAU/USD bulls from placing fresh bets. Nevertheless, the uncertainty over Trump's trade policies should act as a tailwind for the commodity. Gold price continues to attract haven flows amid worries about Trump’s trade policies US President Donald Trump threatened on Friday, saying that levies on automobiles would be coming as soon as April 2. This comes on top of Trump's reciprocal tariff plans on countries that charge duties on US imports and continues to underpin the safe-haven Gold price. The disappointing release of US Retail Sales figures on Friday, along with mixed signals on inflation, suggests that the Federal Reserve could possibly cut rates at the September or October policy meeting. Fed Funds Futures see the possibility of a 40 basis point rate cut in 2025. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said on Monday that the labor market is largely in balance and the current economy argues for a steady policy as inflation has been sticky over recent months. Future Fed rate policy choices will be data-driven, Harker added further. Fed Board of Governors member Michelle Bowman noted that high asset prices may have impeded progress on inflation and more certainty is needed on declining inflation before reducing rates. Bowman added that wage growth above level is consistent with the Fed inflation target. Fed Board of Governors member Christopher Waller said that inflation progress last year has been excruciatingly slow and that rate cuts would be appropriate in 2025 if inflation repeats the 2024 pattern. Waller expects disinflation and interest rate cuts to resume year on year. The US Dollar attracts some buyers and for now, seems to have snapped a three-day losing streak to its lowest level since December 17. This might hold back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets around the XAU/USD and keep a lid on any further appreciating move. Traders look to the release of the Empire State Manufacturing Index from the US for some impetus later during the North American session. Apart from this, speeches by influential FOMC members would drive the USD demand and produce short-term trading opportunities. Gold price might confront some resistance near $2,925 before testing all-time peakFrom a technical perspective, the range-bound price action witnessed over the past week or so could be categorized as a bullish consolidation phase against the backdrop of the recent rally to a record high. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart are holding comfortably in the positive territory and suggest that the path of least resistance for the Gold price remains to the upside. That said, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains close to overbought territory. Hence, any subsequent move up is more likely to confront stiff resistance near the $2,925 horizontal zone. This is followed by the $2,942-2,943 area, or the all-time peak, which if cleared decisively will mark a fresh breakout and pave the way for an extension of a two-month-old uptrend. On the flip side, weakness below the $2,900 mark now seems to find decent support near the $2,878-2,876 region. Any further decline towards the $2,860-2,855 area could be seen as a buying opportunity, which should help limit the downside for the Gold price near the $2,834 zone. A convincing break below the latter, however, might prompt some technical selling and drag the XAU/USD towards the $2,815 region en route to the $2,800 mark and the $2,785-2,784 support. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.

06:35 India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices rose in India on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

.fxs-related-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-related-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{text-decoration:none;color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover a{color:#e4871b}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover{text-decoration:none}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-related-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Gold prices rose in India on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet. The price for Gold stood at 8,126.38 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 8,096.88 it cost on Monday. The price for Gold increased to INR 94,784.55 per tola from INR 94,440.36 per tola a day earlier. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 8,126.38 10 Grams 81,263.85 Tola 94,784.55 Troy Ounce 252,740.80 FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly. Related newsGold Price Forecast: XAU/USD turns cautious, awaits US-Russia talks, Fedspeak Gold price gains amid uncertainty on US trade policies Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD struggles around $2,900 in dull trading Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

06:35 RBA’s Bullock: Further rate cuts implied by market not guaranteed
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock is speaking at the press conference, following the announcement of the February monetary policy decision on Tuesday.

06:24 GBP/USD drops to near 1.2600 ahead of UK labor market data
GBP/USD breaks its five-day winning streak, trading around 1.2600 during Tuesday's Asian session.

06:19 FX option expiries for Feb 18 NY cut
FX option expiries for Feb 18 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

FX option expiries for Feb 18 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below. EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.0300 3.5b 1.0340 1.8b 1.0400 1b 1.0450 947m 1.0500 1.3b 1.0625 867m GBP/USD: GBP amounts 1.2600 614m USD/JPY: USD amounts 154.00 1.1b 155.00 1.1b USD/CAD: USD amounts 1.4185 472m 1.4295 1.1b 1.4300 929m EUR/GBP: EUR amounts 0.8315 650m

06:05 AUD/JPY gains ground above 96.50 as RBA cuts rate to 4.10% as expected
The AUD/JPY cross attracts some buyers to around 96.55 during the early Asian session on Tuesday.

05:54 EUR/USD falls toward 1.0450 as US Dollar strengthens amid rising Treasury yields
EUR/USD extends its losses for the second successive session, trading near 1.0460 during the Asian hours on Tuesday.

05:48 AUD/NZD rallies to 1.1130 area, closer to multi-month top after RBA’s 25 bps rate cut
The AUD/NZD cross stages a goodish rebound from over a one-week low, around the 1.1075 region touched during the Asian session on Tuesday, and gains follow-through traction after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announced its policy decision.

05:30 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision in line with expectations (4.1%)
Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision in line with expectations (4.1%)

04:57 AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Tests nine-day support below 96.50 ahead of RBA policy decision
AUD/JPY remains attempts to recover its recent losses registered in the previous session, hovering around 96.40 during Tuesday’s Asian hours.

04:43 China’s NDRC: Precise policies to be implemented to help ease difficulties faced by private firms
The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China’s state planner, said in a statement on Tuesday that “precise' policies to be implemented to help ease difficulties faced by private companies.” Additional takeaways 'Current' political, economic and social environment very conducive to development of private economy.

04:32 Japanese Yen drifts lower amid receding safe-haven demand; bullish potential intact
The Japanese Yen (JPY) attracts some sellers during the Asian session on Tuesday, which, along with a modest US Dollar (USD) uptick, assists the USD/JPY pair in staging a modest recovery from the 151.25 area or over a one-week low.

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Rising bets for an imminent BoJ rate rise this year should limit any deeper losses for the JPY. The narrowing US-Japan yield differential might also lend support to the lower-yielding JPY. The Japanese Yen (JPY) attracts some sellers during the Asian session on Tuesday, which, along with a modest US Dollar (USD) uptick, assists the USD/JPY pair in staging a modest recovery from the 151.25 area or over a one-week low. Investors cheered a delay in the implementation of US President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor undermining the safe-haven JPY. Any meaningful JPY depreciation, however, still seems elusive in the wake of rising bets for more interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), bolstered by the release of robust Q4 GDP print from Japan on Monday. Meanwhile, hawkish BoJ expectations led to a significant rise in Japanese government bond yields, to a multi-year high. Adding to this, the recent decline in the US Treasury bond yields, backed by expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would cut interest rates further, has resulted in a narrowing of the US-Japan rate differential. This might further hold back traders from placing aggressive bearish bets around the lower-yielding JPY. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before confirming that the USD/JPY pair has bottomed out and positioning for any further recovery. Japanese Yen bulls have the upper hand amid hawkish BoJ expectations US President Donald Trump said on Thursday that he plans to unveil reciprocal tariffs, which would aim at every country that charges duties on US imports, though he stopped short of giving any details. Furthermore, the optimism over talks between the US and Russia aimed at ending the war in Ukraine boosted investors' confidence and undermined demand for the safe-haven Japanese Yen on Tuesday. Against the backdrop of strong inflation figures from Japan, the solid Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) released on Monday cemented the case for imminent rate hikes from the Bank of Japan this year. Markets are now pricing in roughly another 37 basis points worth of increases by December, pushing the yield on the benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond to its highest level since April 2010. Meanwhile, a surprise drop in US Retail Sales, along with mixed signals on inflation, suggests that the Federal Reserve could possibly cut interest rates at the September or October policy meeting. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said on Monday that the labor market is largely in balance and the current economy argues for a steady policy as inflation has been sticky over recent months. Fed Board of Governors member Michelle Bowman noted that high asset prices may have impeded progress on inflation and more certainty is needed on declining inflation before reducing rates. Fed Board of Governors member Christopher Waller said that inflation progress last year has been excruciatingly slow and that rate cuts would be appropriate in 2025 if inflation repeats the 2024 pattern. Nevertheless, Fed Funds Futures see a 40 basis point Fed rate cut in 2025, causing the recent decline in the US Treasury bond yields and contributing to the narrowing of the US-Japan rate differential. Traders look to the release of the Empire State Manufacturing Index from the US, which, along with speeches by influential FOMC members, would drive the US Dollar and the USD/JPY pair. USD/JPY might struggle to build on intraday recovery beyond the 152.00 markFrom a technical perspective, last week's failure near the 50% retracement level of the January-February down leg and the subsequent slide below the very important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) favors bearish traders. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart are holding in negative territory and suggest that the path of least resistance for the USD/JPY pair is to the downside. Hence, any further move up towards the 152.00 mark could be seen as a selling opportunity, which should cap spot prices near the 152.65 region (200-day SMA). This is followed by the 100-day SMA, currently pegged near the 153.15 region, which if cleared could trigger a short-covering rally beyond the 154.00 mark, towards the 154.45-154.50 supply zone en route to last week's swing high, around the 154.75-154.80 region. On the flip side, the 151.25 area, or the Asian session low, now seems to act as immediate support ahead of the 151.00-150.90 zone, or the year-to-date trough touched earlier this month. A convincing break below the latter would expose the 150.00 psychological mark. Some follow-through selling should pave the way for a fall toward the 149.60-149.55 region en route to the 149.00 round figure and the December 2024 swing low, around the 148.65 region. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.

04:14 NZD/USD attracts some sellers to near 0.5700 as traders await RBNZ rate decision
The NZD/USD pair attracts some sellers to around 0.5710 during the early Asian session on Tuesday.

03:37 Australian Dollar depreciates ahead of RBA decision
The Australian Dollar (AUD) pauses its three-day winning streak against the US Dollar (USD) as traders await the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy decision on Tuesday.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian Dollar weakens as traders adopt caution ahead of the RBA’s policy decision on Tuesday.The RBA is expected to lower its Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 4.10%.The US Dollar gains ground due to improved Treasury yields.The Australian Dollar (AUD) pauses its three-day winning streak against the US Dollar (USD) as traders await the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy decision on Tuesday. The central bank is widely expected to lower its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.10%, marking the first rate cut in four years. However, policymakers may adopt a cautious stance, as trimmed mean inflation remains above the RBA’s 2%-3% target range. Signs of easing inflation in Australia have increased expectations for a rate cut in February. December data indicated slowing price pressures, with the latest quarterly Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising less than forecast in the final quarter of 2024. The RBA’s preferred inflation measure, the Trimmed Mean CPI, climbed 0.5% for the quarter—below the expected 0.6%—while the annualized rate declined to 3.2% from 3.5%. The AUD/USD pair found support following US President Donald Trump's decision to delay the implementation of reciprocal tariffs. Additionally, the US Dollar (USD) weakened as a disappointing US retail sales report fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might cut interest rates later this year, despite lingering inflation concerns. Australian Dollar declines as US Dollar gains ground on improved Treasury yields The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US Dollar's performance against six major currencies, edges higher after registering losses in the previous three successive sessions due to improved US Treasury yields. The DXY trades around 106.80, while yields on 2-year and 10-year US Treasury bonds stand at 4.26% and 4.50%, respectively. Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman stated on Monday that rising asset prices may have slowed the Fed’s recent progress on inflation. While Bowman expects inflation to decline, she cautioned that upside risks remain and emphasized the need for more certainty before considering rate cuts. Meanwhile, Fed Governor Christopher Waller acknowledged late Monday that while inflation has improved, progress has been “excruciatingly” slow. Waller stressed that the Fed must not allow policy uncertainty to hinder data-driven decision-making. US Census Bureau reported on Friday that Retail Sales fell by 0.9% in January, following a revised 0.7% increase in December (previously reported as 0.4%). This decline was sharper than the market’s expectation of a 0.1% drop. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in his semi-annual report to Congress that the board officials “do not need to be in a hurry" to cut interest rates due to strength in the job market and solid economic growth. He added that US President Donald Trump's tariff policies could put more upward pressure on prices, making it harder for the central bank to lower rates. On Monday, Chinese President Xi Jinping led a meeting with Alibaba co-founder Jack Ma and other prominent entrepreneurs, signaling Beijing’s renewed support for the private sector, which is now seen as crucial to economic recovery, according to Bloomberg. Xi emphasized the need to eliminate barriers that hinder equal access to production resources and fair market competition. Australian Dollar moves below 0.6350; support appears at nine-day EMA AUD/USD trades near 0.6340 on Tuesday, trending upward within an ascending channel pattern, indicating a bullish market bias. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above the 50 level, further supporting the bullish outlook. On the upside, the AUD/USD pair may challenge the upper boundary of the ascending channel at 0.6390, followed by the key psychological resistance at 0.6400. Support levels include the nine-day EMA at 0.6316, followed by the 14-day EMA at 0.6300. A stronger support zone lies near the lower boundary of the ascending channel at 0.6280. AUD/USD: Daily ChartAustralian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.18% 0.20% 0.24% 0.13% 0.29% 0.39% 0.12% EUR -0.18% 0.03% 0.05% -0.05% 0.11% 0.21% -0.06% GBP -0.20% -0.03% 0.06% -0.07% 0.09% 0.19% -0.08% JPY -0.24% -0.05% -0.06% -0.09% 0.06% 0.15% -0.11% CAD -0.13% 0.05% 0.07% 0.09% 0.16% 0.26% -0.01% AUD -0.29% -0.11% -0.09% -0.06% -0.16% 0.10% -0.18% NZD -0.39% -0.21% -0.19% -0.15% -0.26% -0.10% -0.27% CHF -0.12% 0.06% 0.08% 0.11% 0.00% 0.18% 0.27% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

03:30 USD/INR extends upside on foreign fund outflows, US Dollar demand
The Indian Rupee (INR) depreciates on Tuesday. Analysts expect the local currency to trade with negative bias amid weakness in the domestic equities and Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) outflows.

03:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1697 vs. 7.1702 previous
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Tuesday at 7.1697 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1702 and 7.2538 Reuters estimates.

02:42 China President Xi calls to boost country’s private sector
On Monday, Chinese President Xi Jinping presided over a meeting with Alibaba co-founder Jack Ma and other prominent entrepreneurs, signaling Beijing’s support for a long-marginalized private sector now considered key to reviving the economy, per Bloomberg.

02:16 UK’s Starmer: Future of Ukraine is an existential issue for Europe
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said late Monday that any Ukraine peace deal would require a "US backstop" to deter Russia from attacking its neighbor again, per Reuters.

02:05 EUR/USD flattens on holiday-thinned Monday
EUR/USD swamped out at the 1.0500 handle on Monday, snapping a four-day win streak as Fiber bulls re-think their position.

01:57 WTI recovers above $71.00 on supply disruptions in the Caspian region
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $71.20 during the early Asian session on Tuesday.

01:11 GBP/USD rises ahead of UK earnings and employment data
GBP/USD traded its way into an easy fifth straight gain on Monday, climbing nearly one-third of one percent and crossing back over the 1.2600 handle.

01:09 USD/CAD holds steady below 1.4200 ahead of Canadian CPI release
The USD/CAD pair flat lines near 1.4185 during the late American session on Monday.

01:04 Fed's Waller: Inflation progress has been slow
Federal Reserve (Fed) Board of Governors member Christopher Waller noted late Monday that while inflation progress has been made, it has been "excruciatingly" slow.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Board of Governors member Christopher Waller noted late Monday that while inflation progress has been made, it has been "excruciatingly" slow. Key highlights Fed must not let uncertainty about policy paralyze action guided by data. Inflation progress in past year excruciatingly slow. Recent cpi disappointing, but could be the result of seasonally adjusted issues. Cuts appropriate in 2025 if inflation repeats 2024 pattern. Labor market remains strong, solid growth appears to be continuing in first quarter of 2025. Expects disinflation and rate cuts to resume year on year. Expects tariffs to have modest and non-persistent impact on prices that Fed should try to look through in setting policy. Seasonal effects may distort inflation data. Waiting for uncertainty to lift is a recipe for paralysis. Not putting much weight on January retail sales given impact of cold weather. Tariffs to have slight, enduring impact on prices.

00:50 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD holds firm, negative divergence looms
Silver price edges higher and registered gains of over 0.70% on Monday as US financial markets remained closed in observance of Presidents’ Day.

00:08 AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Bears take control as pair slips below 20-day SMA
AUD/JPY continued its downward movement on Monday, losing 0.42% to settle around 96.30.

AUD/JPY declines by 0.42% to 96.30 on Monday, extending its recent losing streak.RSI drops to negative territory, signaling increasing bearish pressure.The breach of the 20-day SMA confirms a shift in sentiment, putting sellers in control.AUD/JPY continued its downward movement on Monday, losing 0.42% to settle around 96.30. The break below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) reinforces the weakening trend, as buyers struggle to regain momentum. The pair has now given up most of its recent gains, with sellers gaining traction. Momentum indicators paint a bearish picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen sharply to 48, reflecting increased downside pressure, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram shows decreasing green bars, suggesting that bullish attempts are fading. The pair’s inability to hold above the 20-day SMA indicates that selling momentum could intensify. If the downward trend persists, the next key support lies around 96.00, followed by 95.50. On the upside, buyers would need to push AUD/JPY back above the 20-day SMA near 96.60 to regain short-term control and shift sentiment toward a more neutral stance. AUD/JPY daily chart

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Forex News Timeline

23:47 NZD/USD Price Analysis: Kiwi pulls back ahead of RBNZ decision The New Zealand dollar faced selling pressure on Tuesday, dropping 0.58% agains the US Dollar to 0.5700 after last week’s rally saw the pair climb to its highest levels since late January above 0.5730.

23:45 New Zealand Producer Price Index - Input (QoQ) down to -0.9% in 4Q from previous 1.9% New Zealand Producer Price Index - Input (QoQ) down to -0.9% in 4Q from previous 1.9%

23:45 New Zealand Producer Price Index - Output (QoQ) fell from previous 1.5% to -0.1% in 4Q New Zealand Producer Price Index - Output (QoQ) fell from previous 1.5% to -0.1% in 4Q

23:38 GBP/USD Price Analysis: Bulls pause ahead of key fundamental drivers GBP/USD retreated slightly on Tuesday, edging down 0.16% to 1.2605 after an extended rally that propelled it to its highest level since mid-January.

23:00 United States Net Long-Term TIC Flows below expectations ($149.1B) in December: Actual ($72B) United States Net Long-Term TIC Flows below expectations ($149.1B) in December: Actual ($72B)

23:00 United States Total Net TIC Flows down to $87.1B in December from previous $159.9B United States Total Net TIC Flows down to $87.1B in December from previous $159.9B

22:45 Australian Dollar capped above 0.6300 despite hawkish RBA The AUD/USD pair halted its three-day recovery on the back of the firmer US Dollar (USD) and despite the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) hawkish cut although it managed to keep the trade above the 0.6300 barrier.

22:37 Gold price soars 1% as trade uncertainty sparks demand Gold price surged more than 1% on Tuesday due to safe-haven demand amid uncertainty over controversial trade policies proposed by US President Donald Trump.

21:37 Forex Today: UK inflation and the FOMC Minutes will be in the spotlight The US Dollar managed to regain some balance and stage a tepid rebound helped by the resumption of concerns over US tariffs, as well as a widespread selling pressure in the risk-linked universe.

20:59 Argentina Trade Balance (MoM) registered at $142M, below expectations ($800M) in January Argentina Trade Balance (MoM) registered at $142M, below expectations ($800M) in January

20:41 Canadian Dollar holds steady after CPI inflation uptick The Canadian Dollar (CAD) traded blows with the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, keeping USD/CAD stead near the 1.4200 handle as Loonie traders try to hang onto their recent gains.

20:35 US Dollar gains as US-Russia talks show little progress The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US Dollar's (USD) performance against six major currencies, rises on Tuesday as traders react to discouraging headlines from the United States (US)-Russia talks in Riyadh.

20:13 Mexican Peso extends rally as risk appetite offsets Fed hawkishness The Mexican Peso (MXN) rallied for the sixth consecutive day amid an upbeat market mood, which keeps risk-sensitive currencies appreciating despite some Federal Reserve (Fed) officials turning slightly hawkish.

20:06 United States 52-Week Bill Auction climbed from previous 4.025% to 4.05% United States 52-Week Bill Auction climbed from previous 4.025% to 4.05%

19:36 Dow Jones Industrial Average knocks lower on first day back after market holiday The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) stumbled out of the gate on Tuesday, declining around 300 points at its lowest following an extended weekend break.

17:52 Fed's Daly: Further cuts in 2025 remains uncertain Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of San Franciso President Mary Daly noted on Tuesday that prospects of further rate cuts this year remain murky in the face of policy uncertainty despite an overall positive lean to US economic factors.

17:50 EUR/USD Price Analysis: Bulls pause as pair faces key technical test EUR/USD took a step back on Tuesday, shedding 0.32% to trade near 1.0450 as bulls lost some ground after last week’s impressive rally.

17:17 RBA: Revising our cash rate forecast – Standard Chartered RBA delivered a hawkish cut and pushed back against market pricing of c.50bps more cuts in 2025.

17:10 GBP/USD slips amid strong US Dollar, hawkish Fed tilt The Pond Sterling retreated after rallying three consecutive days, dropping some 0.19% even though the UK’s jobs data was solid.

17:00 United States NAHB Housing Market Index below forecasts (47) in February: Actual (42) United States NAHB Housing Market Index below forecasts (47) in February: Actual (42)

16:33 AUD/USD drops below 0.6350 as US Dollar clings to intraday gains The AUD/USD pair is down a little over 0.1% below 0.6350 in Tuesday’s North American session.

16:29 New Zealand GDT Price Index down to -0.6% from previous 3.7% New Zealand GDT Price Index down to -0.6% from previous 3.7%

15:51 USD/CAD faces pressure near intraday high of 1.4200 after hot Canadian CPI report The USD/CAD pair attracts offers near the intraday high of 1.4200 in Tuesday’s North American session.

15:31 Canada Consumer Price Index - Core (MoM) remains unchanged at 0.3% in January Canada Consumer Price Index - Core (MoM) remains unchanged at 0.3% in January

15:30 Canada Consumer Price Index (MoM) meets forecasts (0.1%) in January Canada Consumer Price Index (MoM) meets forecasts (0.1%) in January

15:30 Canada BoC Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) up to 2.1% in January from previous 1.8% Canada BoC Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) up to 2.1% in January from previous 1.8%

15:30 Canada Consumer Price Index (YoY) in line with expectations (1.9%) in January Canada Consumer Price Index (YoY) in line with expectations (1.9%) in January

15:30 Canada BoC Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) up to 0.4% in January from previous -0.3% Canada BoC Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) up to 0.4% in January from previous -0.3%

15:30 United States NY Empire State Manufacturing Index came in at 5.7, above forecasts (-1) in February United States NY Empire State Manufacturing Index came in at 5.7, above forecasts (-1) in February

15:07 GBP struggles to hold gains around 1.26 – Scotiabank The Pound Sterling (GBP) is a relatively weak performer on the session vs US Dollar (USD), down a little more than 0.2% on the generally strong USD, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

15:03 EUR slips back from low 1.05 area – Scotiabank Germany’s February ZEW Investor Survey reflected a stronger than expected rise in the Expectations index (26, versus 20 expected and 19.3 in January), Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

14:58 CAD may stabilize in the short run – Scotiabank The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is little changed in quiet trade.

13:35 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rebounds strongly to near $32.50 as Fed guides steady policy stance Silver price (XAG/USD) bounces back strongly to near $32.50 in Tuesday’s European session.

12:08 USD/CHF Price Forecast: Strives for firm footing above 0.9000 The USD/CHF pair surrenders its intraday gains and falls back to near the psychological level of 0.9000 in European trading hours on Tuesday.

12:04 USD/CNH can decline to the major support at 7.2300 – UOB Group US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a range between 7.2500 and 7.2780 vs the Chinese Yuan (CNH).

12:03 German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index jumps to 26 in February vs. 15.5 expected The headline German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index jumped to 26 in February from 10.3 in January, beating the market forecast of 15.5 by a wide margin.

12:01 Eurozone ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment below forecasts (24.3) in February: Actual (24.2) Eurozone ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment below forecasts (24.3) in February: Actual (24.2)

12:00 Germany ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment registered at 26 above expectations (15.5) in February Germany ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment registered at 26 above expectations (15.5) in February

12:00 Germany ZEW Survey – Current Situation came in at -88.5, above expectations (-90) in February Germany ZEW Survey – Current Situation came in at -88.5, above expectations (-90) in February

11:56 USD/JPY: To consolidate on the day – OCBC USD/JPY rebounded today, tracking USD’s modest bounce after back-to-back session of declines.

11:51 EUR/GBP declines to and below 0.8300 – Danske Bank EUR/GBP declined close to the 0.8300 mark during yesterday's session.

11:47 USD/JPY: Can edge below 151.00 – UOB Group US Dollar (USD) could edge below 151.00 vs Japanese Yen (JPY), but it remains to be seen if it can maintain a foothold below this level.

11:41 Gold in second day of gains with US and Russian officials meeting for peace talks Gold’s price (XAU/USD) is rallying near 0.50% this Tuesday at the start of the European trading session, with the precious metal trading around $2,910 at the time of writing.

11:40 Tariffs continue to be the main driver of USD/CAD – Danske Bank Today focus in CAD FX turns to the January inflation figures at 14:30 CET , Danske Bank's FX analyst Mohamad Al-Saraf reports.

11:39 Bailey speech: We are facing a weak growth environment in the UK Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey participated in a panel discussion titled "Preserving and enhancing open financial markets" at an event hosted by Bruegel, in Brussels, on Tuesday.

11:33 DXY: Bears pause for now – OCBC US Dollar (USD) firmed overnight on comments from Fed’s Waller.

11:30 South Africa Unemployment Rate (%) down to 31.9% in 4Q from previous 32.1% South Africa Unemployment Rate (%) down to 31.9% in 4Q from previous 32.1%

11:30 South Africa Unemployment Total : 7.991M (4Q) vs previous 8.011M South Africa Unemployment Total : 7.991M (4Q) vs previous 8.011M

11:30 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Tuesday, according to FXStreet data.

11:26 EUR/USD corrects as US Dollar rebounds on Fed’s restrictive policy stance EUR/USD declines to near 1.0450 in Tuesday’s European session after failing to hold above the psychological resistance of 1.0500 in the last two trading days.

11:24 NZD/USD: Can potentially rise to 0.5790 – UOB Group New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is likely to trade between 0.5710 and 0.5745 vs US Dollar (USD).

11:18 Copper retreats from three-month highs – ING LME copper retreated from over three-month highs on Monday, while the benchmark cash-to-three-month spread – having moved into backwardation for the first time since June 2023 on Friday – has now eased back to contango.

11:15 WTI rises above $71.50 due to supply disruptions from Kazakhstan West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude Oil price continues its upward momentum for the second consecutive day, trading around $71.70 per barrel during European hours on Tuesday.

11:14 Australia: RBA delivers first rate cut since Nov 2020 – UOB Group As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to lower the cash rate target by 25bps to 4.10% and the interest rate paid on Exchange Settlement balances to 4.00%.

11:07 AUD/USD: Expected to trade in a 0.6335/0.6370 range – UOB Group Australian Dollar (AUD) is expected to trade in a 0.6335/0.6370 range vs the US Dollar (USD).

11:02 AUD: A hawkish cut by the RBA – ING The Reserve Bank of Australia cut rates for the first time in four years this morning, matching consensus and market expectations.

11:00 Canada CPI expected to print at 1.8% in January This Tuesday, Statistics Canada will unveil its latest inflation report for January, based on data from the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

10:55 GBP/USD: To edge higher in short term – UOB Group Scope for Pound Sterling (GBP) to edge higher vs US Dollar (USD), but any advance is likely part of a higher trading range of 1.2580/1.2655.

10:51 USD: Fading bearish momentum – ING Our baseline view for this week has been that the dollar correction has run its course, and we still favour chasing a USD rebound against other G10 currencies.

10:42 EUR/USD: expected to consolidate in a 1.0455/1.0505 range – UOB Group Euro (EUR) is expected to consolidate vs the US Dollar (USD) in a 1.0455/1.0505 range.

10:34 Forex Today: Pound Sterling finds support on jobs data, RBA cuts policy rate by 25 bps Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, February 18: The trading action in foreign exchange markets remains choppy early Tuesday as investors' search for the next catalyst continues.

10:28 US Dollar Index Price Forecast: Holds gains around 107.00 despite increased bearish bias The US Dollar Index (DXY) ticks higher on Tuesday, hovering around 107.00 during European trading hours after three consecutive sessions of losses.

10:27 EUR: No help from joint defence spending – ING The ongoing discussion among EU leaders for a joint fund for defence spending is unlikely to drive much support for European currencies.

10:07 Pound Sterling rebounds after upbeat UK employment, strong wage growth data The Pound Sterling (GBP) bounces back against its major peers on Tuesday after the release of upbeat United Kingdom (UK) labor market data for the three months ending December.

10:01 NZD/USD drops to near 0.5700 as traders expect RBNZ to deliver a bumper rate cut NZD/USD retreats after three consecutive days of gains, trading around 0.5710 during European hours on Tuesday.

09:45 France Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (YoY) meets forecasts (1.8%) in January France Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (YoY) meets forecasts (1.8%) in January

09:45 France Inflation ex-tobacco (MoM): 0.1% (January) vs previous 0.2% France Inflation ex-tobacco (MoM): 0.1% (January) vs previous 0.2%

09:45 France Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (MoM) in line with expectations (-0.2%) in January France Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (MoM) in line with expectations (-0.2%) in January

09:31 GBP/JPY holds gains around 191.50 following UK employment data GBP/JPY halts its three-day losing streak, trading around 191.50 during the early European hours on Tuesday.

09:30 Switzerland Industrial Production (YoY): 2.3% (4Q) vs previous 3.5% Switzerland Industrial Production (YoY): 2.3% (4Q) vs previous 3.5%

09:21 EUR/GBP weakens below 0.8300 after mixed UK employment data The EUR/GBP cross edges lower to near 0.8295 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday.

09:18 Crude Oil price today: WTI price bullish, according to FXStreet data West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Tuesday, according to FXStreet data.

09:06 United Kingdom Claimant Count Rate: 4.6% (January) United Kingdom Claimant Count Rate: 4.6% (January)

09:01 United Kingdom Average Earnings Excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr) meets forecasts (5.9%) in December United Kingdom Average Earnings Excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr) meets forecasts (5.9%) in December

09:01 UK Unemployment Rate stays at 4.4% in quarter to December vs. 4.5% expected The United Kingdom’s (UK) ILO Unemployment Rate remained at 4.4% in the three months to December, the data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed on Tuesday.

09:00 United Kingdom Employment Change (3M) climbed from previous 35K to 107K in December United Kingdom Employment Change (3M) climbed from previous 35K to 107K in December

09:00 United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) below forecasts (4.5%) in December: Actual (4.4%) United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) below forecasts (4.5%) in December: Actual (4.4%)

09:00 United Kingdom Average Earnings Including Bonus (3Mo/Yr) came in at 6%, above forecasts (5.9%) in December United Kingdom Average Earnings Including Bonus (3Mo/Yr) came in at 6%, above forecasts (5.9%) in December

09:00 United Kingdom Claimant Count Change registered at 22K above expectations (10K) in January United Kingdom Claimant Count Change registered at 22K above expectations (10K) in January