Forex News Timeline

23:45 New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM) fell from previous 2% to -1.6% in January
New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM) fell from previous 2% to -1.6% in January

23:45 New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales (YoY) rose from previous -1% to -0.5% in January
New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales (YoY) rose from previous -1% to -0.5% in January

23:13 USD/JPY Price Forecast: Surges past 154.50 post hot CPI
The USD/JPY rallied sharply on Wednesday after a hot US inflation report spurred a jump in the US 10-year Treasury yield, closely correlated with the major.

22:51 Gold price steadies as Powell stands firm on restrictive policy
Gold price recovered some ground late during Wednesday’s North American session.

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Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell said that policy needs to remain restrictive as inflationary pressures mount and United States (US) President Donald Trump's tariff threats intensify. XAU/USD trades at $2,897, virtually unchanged. The non-yielding metal halted its downtrend after the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed that inflation jumped above 3% in the United States, suggesting that the Fed’s pause on its easing cycle could be longer than expected. Last week, the December fed funds rate futures contract showed that traders expected 40 basis points (bps) of easing. After the CPI, those expectations were adjusted to just 30 bps of rate cuts by the end of the year. US Treasury bond yields and the Greenback reacted to the upside. Nevertheless, the US Dollar (USD) lost some steam and erased post-CPI gains, sitting at 107.98, virtually unchanged as portrayed by the US Dollar Index (DXY). Earlier, Fed Chair Jerome Powell finished his testimony at the US House of Representatives. He said that the job on inflation is not completed, and he added, “So we want to keep policy restrictive for now.” Atlanta’s Fed President Raphael Bostic echoed some of his words, saying that if the economy evolves as expected, inflation could get to 2% in 2026. Chicago’s Fed President Austan Goolsbee added that multiple inflation readings like January’s would ratify that the “job is clearly not done.” Daily digest market movers: Gold price holds rally capped by high US yields The US 10-year Treasury bond yield edges up nine and a half basis points (bps) at 4.635%. US real yields, which correlate inversely to Bullion prices, surge almost nine bps up to 2.157%, a headwind for XAU/USD. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed above 3% YoY for the first time in six months, exceeding forecasts and December’s 2.9% increase. This rise underscores the ongoing challenge the Federal Reserve faces in controlling inflation. Core CPI, which excludes volatile items, rose by 3.3% YoY up from 3.2%, above forecasts of 3.1%. Bullion has seen increased demand from central banks, with the World Gold Council (WGC) reporting that central banks purchased over 1,000 tons of gold for the third consecutive year in 2024. Following Trump's electoral victory, purchases by central banks surged by more than 54% year-over-year to 333 tons, according to WGC data. Money market fed funds rate futures are pricing in 30 basis points of easing by the Federal Reserve in 2025. XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold price hovers around $2,900 Price action hints that Gold’s is poised for further gains after printing ‘back-to-back’ pin bars, an indication of some indecision. Although US CPI data was hot, XAU/USD was not set for a volatile reaction following Tuesday’s trading day, in which Gold hit a record-high of $2,942 before plunging below $2,900. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shifted flat despite being in overbought territory, opening the door for some consolidation. If XAU/USD clears the $2,900 mark, key resistance is at a record high, followed by the psychological price levels of $2,950 and $3,000. Conversely, if Gold tumbles, the first support would be the $2,850, followed by the October 31 cycle high turned support at $2 and January’s 27 swing low of $2,730.Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

21:19 Canadian Dollar recovery grinds away, Loonie finds fresh eight-week high
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) briefly tested a new eight-week peak on Wednesday, pushing USD/CAD to its lowest levels since mid-December.

21:04 Forex Today: Further US inflation gauges should rule the sentiment
The US Dollar succumbed to the late selling pressure and faded the post-CPI move to weekly highs, while investors kept digesting Powell’s testimonies and sticky consumer prices in January.

The US Dollar succumbed to the late selling pressure and faded the post-CPI move to weekly highs, while investors kept digesting Powell’s testimonies and sticky consumer prices in January.Here is what you need to know on Thursday, February 13: The US Dollar Index (DXY) added to Tuesday’s decline and broke below the 108.00 support despite the intense move higher in US yields across the curve. The usual weekly Initial Jobless Claims wil be published along with Producer Prices. EUR/USD reclaimed the 1.0400 zone and beyond to print fresh weekly highs back by the late pullback in the US Dollar. Germany’s final Inflation Rate will be released on February 13, along with the Industrial Production in the euro area and the speech by the ECB’s Cipollone.GBP/USD maintained its constructive bias and rose well north of 1.2400 the figure. Interesting docket in the UK will feature the RICS House Price Balance, along with the preliminary Q4 GDP Growth Rate, Business Investment, Goods Trade Balance, Industrial and Manufacturing Production, Construction Output, and the NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker. USD/JPY rose markedly to multi-day highs north of the 154.00 hurdle on the back of higher US and Japanese yields. The Producer Prices are expected in Japan. AUD/USD reversed two daily advances in a row, although it remained close to the key resistance area around 0.6300. Prices of WTI tumbled to new lows near the $71.00 mark per barrel following the cautious stance by the Fed and larger-than-expected US crude oil inventories. Prices of Gold regained traction and revisited the $2,900 region per ounce troy following an early drop to the vicinity of $2,860. Silver prices rallied to two-day highs past the $32.00 mark per ounce.

21:00 United States Monthly Budget Statement came in at $-129B below forecasts ($-88.1B) in January
United States Monthly Budget Statement came in at $-129B below forecasts ($-88.1B) in January

20:48 BoC Meeting Minutes show Canadian policymakers are awaiting signs of tariff inflation
The Bank of Canada released its latest Meeting Minutes on Wednesday.

The Bank of Canada released its latest Meeting Minutes on Wednesday. According to the BoC's internal discussions, impending trade tariffs from the United States (US) have become a key risk to policy guidance looking forward. Despite the looming threat of a potential reignition in inflation on the back of tit-for-tat tariffs between the US and Canada, the destabilizing impact of a trade war between the two countries warranted a pre-emptive rate cut in order to shore up economic activity before impacts from tariffs get baked into the data. Key highlights While retaliatory tariffs would likely represent one-time increase in the level of prices, the governing council saw the risk of higher import prices feeding into other prices. BoC governing council felt that retaliatory measures by Canada and other nations would put upward pressure on inflation. The BoC governing council felt the increased uncertainty due to the US tariffs threat also supported the case for a cut. Even if no tariffs were imposed, the governing council felt a long period of uncertainty would almost certainly damage business investment. BoC governing council agreed that in this case, Canadian GDP growth would be reduced until the economy adjusted to tariffs. The governing council agreed a protracted trade conflict with the US would permanently cut the level of Canadian GDP. The governing council agreed that in setting monetary policy, it would need to continuously gauge the effects of a trade conflict in real-time. BoC Governing Council agreed it would need to assess a wide range of data, including info on supply chains and more frequent and detailed business and household surveys. The governing council felt that if this led to an increase in inflation expectations, it could generate higher ongoing inflation.

20:38 US Dollar turns down despite hot CPI
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of currencies, initially climbed after January’s hotter-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) data but then reversed course.

20:04 United States 10-Year Note Auction fell from previous 4.68% to 4.632%
United States 10-Year Note Auction fell from previous 4.68% to 4.632%

19:55 Mexican Peso defies US inflation shock, extends gains
The Mexican Peso (MXN) extended its gains against the US Dollar (USD) for the second consecutive day, unfazed by the jump in inflation in the United States (US), preventing the Federal Reserve (Fed) from easing policy.

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The USD/MXN pair trades at 20.51, down 0.14%. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in January jumped above the 3% YoY threshold for the first time in six months, indicating that the Fed’s job of tackling inflation is not done, as shown by US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data. Core prices also increased, justifying the Fed’s decision to hold rates at the January meeting. After the US CPI release, the swaps market speculated that the Fed would not cut rates until the September meeting. December’s fed funds rate futures contract shows the market is pricing 29.5 basis points (bps) of easing towards the end of the year. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified against the US House of Representatives. He commented that core prices remain strong and that the Fed must wait to see monetary policy's effects. Powell acknowledged that the job on inflation was not done and wanted to keep policy restrictive. The economic docket remains absent in Mexico, yet President Claudia Sheinbaum said that Mexico and the US will discuss steel tariffs later this week. In the US, the schedule will feature the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI), Initial Jobless Claims, Retail Sales, and Industrial Production. Daily digest market movers: Mexican Peso ignores US inflation data Mexico’s economic docket remains absent, yet deterioration in the automobile industry and worse-than-expected Industrial Production figures hint the economy is in worse shape than expected. This and US President Donald Trump's trade rhetoric on Mexico would be headwinds for the Mexican currency. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) surpassed 3% YoY for the first time since June 2024, with the month-over-month (MoM) figures increasing by 0.5%, up from December's 0.4%. Excluding volatile items, the core CPI rose by 3.3% YoY from 3.2%, and monthly, it expanded by 0.4%, an increase from the previous 0.2% and exceeding the estimated 0.3%. Trade disputes between the US and Mexico remain in the boiler room. Although the countries found common ground previously, USD/MXN traders should know that there is a 30-day pause and that tensions could arise toward the end of February. Money market fed funds rate futures are pricing in 28.5 basis points (bps) of easing by the Fed in 2025. USD/MXN technical outlook: Mexican Peso consolidates, awaiting fresh catalyst USD/MXN has fallen toward the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 20.46, which, if broken, could pave the way for a retracement. Price action suggests the exotic pair has consolidated near the 20.40 – 20.68 area during the last five days, with momentum slightly tilted to the downside as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) turned bearish. A drop of USD/MXN below 20.40 would favor a test of the 100-day SMA at 20.22, exposing the critical 20.00 figure. If surpassed, the exotic pair could aim toward 19.50 and eye a test of the 200-day SMA at 19.26. In the meantime, if buyers clear 20.68, the next resistance would be the January 17 high at 20.90. Once surpassed, the next stop would be 21.00, followed by the year-to-date (YTD) at 21.29.Mexican Peso FAQs What key factors drive the Mexican Peso? The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity. How do decisions of the Banxico impact the Mexican Peso? The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. How does economic data influence the value of the Mexican Peso? Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Mexican Peso? As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

19:48 EUR/USD reverses early declines, climbs back over 1.04
EUR/USD clawed back chart paper on Wednesday, rebounding from early losses to reclaim the 1.0400 handle as markets shake off a fresh batch of US inflation figures that broadly accelerated in January.

19:33 Fed's Bostic: labor is good, but inflation still needs monitoring
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Atlanta President added his own soundbites to the noise machine of Fed headlines on Wednesday, noting that despite still-strong labor figures, US inflation continues to remain a sticking point, especially after US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figures ticked higher in January.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Atlanta President added his own soundbites to the noise machine of Fed headlines on Wednesday, noting that despite still-strong labor figures, US inflation continues to remain a sticking point, especially after US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figures ticked higher in January. Key highlights The labor market is performing incredibly well. The latest inflation numbers show careful monitoring still needed. The deployment of AI will likely mean fewer workers are needed in some industries. GDP more resilient than expected.

19:06 Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbles as US inflation kicks higher
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) tumbled on Wednesday,dropping over 400 points at its lowest and dipping into 44090.

18:21 BoE's Greene: hesitant to say a trade war is helpful for inflation
Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Megan Greene noted on Wednesday that a cautious approach is probably the best approach when it comes to easing monetary policy.

Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Megan Greene noted on Wednesday that a cautious approach is probably the best approach when it comes to easing monetary policy. Inflationary pressures continue to cook just beneath the surface of the UK's domestic economy, making it difficult for the BoE to provide support for industries through easing interest rates. Key highlights It's less likely inflation persistence will fade on its own accord, and more likely monetary policy will need to remain restrictive. I believe it is appropriate to maintain a cautious and gradual approach to removing monetary restrictiveness. The UK may now have lower threshold in which short-term inflation rise feeds through to second round effects. Data over recent months has been uncomfortable. A cautious and gradual approach to cuts appropriate. I am hesitant to say a trade war is helpful for inflation. Careful language suggests risks two-sided.

17:56 EUR/USD Price Analysis: Bulls push higher but face key resistance
The EUR/USD pair edged higher to 1.0375 on Wednesday, as buyers extended their recent recovery efforts.

EUR/USD rises to 1.0375 on Wednesday, extending its recovery.Momentum builds, but the pair struggles to clear the 20-day SMA.RSI ticks higher while MACD remains neutral, suggesting cautious optimism.The EUR/USD pair edged higher to 1.0375 on Wednesday, as buyers extended their recent recovery efforts. However, the rally met resistance at the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), a key technical barrier that has previously dictated short-term direction. The pair’s ability to consolidate above this level could determine the next major move. Technical indicators reflect mixed momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen but remains below the neutral 50 mark, signaling ongoing market hesitation. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram prints flat green bars, suggesting that while bearish pressure is fading, a strong bullish trend has yet to materialize. From a structural perspective, the pair remains within a broader consolidation phase, with resistance at 1.0400 and support at 1.0350. A sustained break above the 20-day SMA could fuel a run toward 1.0450, while failure to hold gains may lead to renewed selling pressure toward 1.0320. Beyond technical levels, fundamental factors could play a decisive role in shaping near-term price action. Recent USD moves have been closely tied to shifting rate expectations and Federal Reserve rhetoric. If incoming data or central bank commentary reinforces the need for higher-for-longer rates, EUR/USD could struggle to sustain upside attempts. For Wedneday's session, investors will factor in fresh inflation data from the US released during the European session and Jerome Powell's testimony in Capitol Hill. EUR/USD daily chart

17:30 United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change came in at 4.07M, above expectations (2.8M) in February 7
United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change came in at 4.07M, above expectations (2.8M) in February 7

16:57 GBP/USD drops below 1.2400 after US CPI data
The Pound Sterling slipped during the North American session after the latest United States (US) inflation report showed that prices continued to rise, pushing back expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in the first half of 2025.

16:48 USD/CAD jumps as hot US CPI boosts Fed ‘higher for longer’ interest rates bets
The USD/CAD pair climbs to near 1.4340 in North American trading hours on Wednesday.

16:07 AUD/USD flirts with weekly lows near 0.6230 post US CPI
The US Dollar caught a fresh wave of buying on Wednesday, vaulting the US Dollar Index (DXY) to weekly highs above 108.00.

AUD/USD loses momentum and drops to nearly 0.6230.The Greenback remains well bid on firmer US CPI.US inflation figures came in above estimates in January.The US Dollar caught a fresh wave of buying on Wednesday, vaulting the US Dollar Index (DXY) to weekly highs above 108.00. This surge put pressure on risk-sensitive currencies, including the Australian Dollar, and sparked a notable retreat in AUD/USD. After enjoying two straight days of gains—and even briefly climbing past 0.6300 earlier in the session—the Aussie quickly gave up ground to trade in the low 0.6200 range. Traders, in the meantime, remain focused on unexpectedly strong US inflation figures, with headline CPI up 3.0% YoY and core CPI rising 3.3% from a year earlier. These numbers seem to reinforce the Fed’s measured approach, echoing as well recent remarks by Chair Powell that the central bank won’t rush into any policy shifts. Meanwhile, in Oz, Home Loans grew 4.2% in the October–December period, though Investment Lending for Homes dipped 2.9% during the same stretch. Short-term technical views AUD/USD is expected to face the next key contention at its 2025 bottom of 0.6087 (February 3). The loss of the region could open the door to a move to the key 0.6000 zone. On the upside, initial resistance lies at the 2025 peak of 0.6330 (January 24), followed by the interim 100-day SMA at 0.6456 and the weekly top of 0.6549 (November 25).

15:54 USD/JPY rises to fresh weekly high above 154.00 after US inflation data
USD/JPY gathered bullish momentum in the early American session on Wednesday and reached a fresh weekly high near 154.50.

15:36 EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Surges to near 159.60 as Japanese Yen languishes across the board
The EUR/JPY pair extends its winning spell for the third trading day on Wednesday.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/JPY soars to near 159.60 amid a notable weakness in the Japanese Yen.BoJ Ueda warned that food prices could rise and impact inflation expectations.ECB Galhau cautioned that Trump’s tariffs would have negative impacts on the Eurozone.The EUR/JPY pair extends its winning spell for the third trading day on Wednesday. The pair strengthens as the Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens across the board despite firm market speculation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue raising interest rates. Japanese Yen PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.37% 0.43% 1.16% 0.32% 0.77% 0.73% 0.20% EUR -0.37% 0.06% 0.78% -0.05% 0.38% 0.34% -0.18% GBP -0.43% -0.06% 0.71% -0.12% 0.32% 0.29% -0.24% JPY -1.16% -0.78% -0.71% -0.80% -0.36% -0.41% -0.93% CAD -0.32% 0.05% 0.12% 0.80% 0.45% 0.40% -0.12% AUD -0.77% -0.38% -0.32% 0.36% -0.45% -0.04% -0.57% NZD -0.73% -0.34% -0.29% 0.41% -0.40% 0.04% -0.53% CHF -0.20% 0.18% 0.24% 0.93% 0.12% 0.57% 0.53% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote). The BoJ raised its key borrowing rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 0.5% in the January policy meeting as inflationary pressures remain well above the 2% target for longer. BoJ officials have also guided a hawkish monetary policy outlook on the assumption that wages would continue to grow. Earlier in the day, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda warned that “food prices may continue to remain high” and will impact “people's mindsets and price expectations”, Reuters report. Meanwhile, the Euro (EUR) outperforms its peers despite deepening fears of potential tariffs by United States (US) President Donald Trump on the Eurozone. Donald Trump is poised to announce reciprocal tariffs sooner and market participants expect that Eurozone will face higher levies on auto. The European Union (EU) charges 10% tariffs on imports of automobiles from the US and pays 2.5% import duty for domestic autos supplied to them. In European trading hours, European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker and Bank of France head Francois Villeroy de Galhau warned that Trump’s trade policies would most likely have a "negative impact on the economy." EUR/JPY bounces back strongly after revisiting the four-month low around 156.00. The asset retraces to near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 159.80. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) returns into the 40.00-60.00 range, which indicates that the bearish momentum has ended for now. Going forward, a decisive move by the pair above the February 5 high of 160.30 would open doors for the February 3 high of 160.84, followed by the January 30 high of 161.80. On the flip side, a downside move by the cross below the February 10 low of 155.67 would expose it to the August 5 low of 154.40 and 7 December 2023 low of 153.17. EUR/JPY daily chartEuro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

15:32 United States Consumer Price Index Core s.a: 324.74 (January) vs 323.38
United States Consumer Price Index Core s.a: 324.74 (January) vs 323.38

15:30 Germany Current Account n.s.a. fell from previous €24.1B to €24B in December
Germany Current Account n.s.a. fell from previous €24.1B to €24B in December

15:30 United States Consumer Price Index (YoY) above forecasts (2.9%) in January: Actual (3%)
United States Consumer Price Index (YoY) above forecasts (2.9%) in January: Actual (3%)

15:30 United States Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) registered at 317.671 above expectations (317.46) in January
United States Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) registered at 317.671 above expectations (317.46) in January

15:30 United States Consumer Price Index (MoM) registered at 0.5% above expectations (0.3%) in January
United States Consumer Price Index (MoM) registered at 0.5% above expectations (0.3%) in January

15:30 United States Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) registered at 3.3% above expectations (3.1%) in January
United States Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) registered at 3.3% above expectations (3.1%) in January

15:30 United States Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) came in at 0.4%, above expectations (0.3%) in January
United States Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) came in at 0.4%, above expectations (0.3%) in January

15:30 United States Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) above expectations (317.46) in January: Actual (317.67)
United States Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) above expectations (317.46) in January: Actual (317.67)

15:09 US Pres. Trump: Interest rates should be lowered
US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that interest rates should be lowered, adding that they would "go hand in hand" with upcoming tariffs.

14:39 EUR/GBP to trade at 0.8150 in the end of the year – Rabobank
While the UK’s growth outlook has suffered a significant setback relative to the more optimistic tone that was prevalent in the market after last July’s general election, the EUR also faces headwinds of its own, Rabobank's FX analyst Jane Foley notes.

While the UK’s growth outlook has suffered a significant setback relative to the more optimistic tone that was prevalent in the market after last July’s general election, the EUR also faces headwinds of its own, Rabobank's FX analyst Jane Foley notes. EUR/GBP to trade in the 0.83-0.84 region in the months ahead "The EU has promised to take countermeasures on the US after President Trump announced tariffs on steel and aluminum. That said, EU politicians are likely poised for further action from Trump which could endanger the region’s fragile growth outlook further." "Since US data indicate the presence of a trade surplus with the UK (contrary to ONS data), further tariffs would appear less of a threat for Britain. On balance, we continue to expect a modest outperformance of GBP vs. the EUR this year, though our confidence in GBP has been shaken by the downward revision to the UK growth outlook and last month’s shake-out in the gilt market." "Our year end forecast is EUR/GBP0.8150, though we see scope for a prolonged period of range trading in the EUR/GBP0.83-0.84 region in the months ahead."

14:34 USD/CAD is trading at the lower end of the 1.4260-1.4800 range – BBH
USD/CAD is trading at the lower end of its year-to-date 1.4260-1.4800 range, BBH FX analysts report.

USD/CAD is trading at the lower end of its year-to-date 1.4260-1.4800 range, BBH FX analysts report. Markets expect the BOC to deliver more rate cuts "The Bank of Canada (BOC) releases the Summary of Deliberation from its January meeting. At that meeting, the BOC delivered on expectations and slashed the policy rate 25bps to 3.00%. The BOC also announced technical changes to its monetary policy implementation framework and signaled that the bar for additional easing is high." "The BOC reiterated that the cumulative reduction in the policy rate since last June is substantial and lifted inflation projections for 2025 and 2026. Nonetheless, markets expect the BOC to deliver more rate cuts, which is an ongoing drag for CAD. We agree." "The swaps market is pricing in 50bps of easing over the next 12 months that would see the policy rate bottom at 2.50%."

14:00 United States MBA Mortgage Applications up to 2.3% in February 7 from previous 2.2%
United States MBA Mortgage Applications up to 2.3% in February 7 from previous 2.2%

13:58 US Dollar steadies ahead of US CPI, Powell’s second day at Capitol Hill
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, trades flat around 108.00 after Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell kept his cards close to his chest when facing lawmakers on Tuesday at Capitol Hill.

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The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading sideways around 108.00, still looking for direction.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, trades flat around 108.00 after Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell kept his cards close to his chest when facing lawmakers on Tuesday at Capitol Hill. Powell did not leave many clues about the timing for another interest rate cut by the central bank, if any. Traders are mulling what to do next, with US yields slowly but surely starting to head higher this week. The economic calendar shows the Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers for January are due on Wednesday. Expectations are not very big, with the monthly headline CPI expected to rise 0.3% compared to 0.4% in December. The monthly core CPI gauge is expected to tick up 0.3%, coming from 0.2% in the previous month. Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will give a speech for the second day in a row at Capitol Hill. Daily digest market movers: Powell 2.0At 13:30 GMT, the US Consumer Price Index data for January will be released: The monthly headline CPI measure is expected to rise by 0.3%, coming from 0.4% in the previous month. The monthly core inflation gauge is expected to tick up to 0.3%, compared to 0.2% in December. Stronger inflation numbers would fuel higher US rates and, in turn, trigger a stronger US Dollar (USD) At 15:00 GMT, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will start his second day of testimony at Capitol Hill. At 17:00 GMT, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael W. Bostic gives remarks at the Atlanta chapter of the National Association of Corporate Directors. At 22:05 GMT, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller is set to speak at "A very Stable Conference: Stablecoin Infrastructure for Real World Applications" in San Francisco, California. Equities are facing some headwinds after the first day of Fed Chairman Powell’s testimony. Besides the German Dax hitting a fresh alltime high, overall most indices are trading with small gains or losses. The CME FedWatch tool projects a 95.5% chance that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at its next meeting on March 19. The US 10-year yield is trading around 4.54%, ticking up further for a third day in a row and recovering further from its fresh yearly low of 4.40% printed last week. US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: No cluesThe US Dollar Index (DXY) is stuck in a game of Cluedo, and detective Fed Chairman Powell is not giving away much to nearly no clues. With traders left clueless about what or when the Fed will make its next move, slowly but surely, bonds are getting back in the graces of traders as a safe place to be in periods of uncertainty. With this, the US Dollar should solely but surely see some inflow and tick higher. On the upside, the first barrier at 109.30 (July 14, 2022, high) was briefly surpassed but did not hold last week. Once that level is reclaimed, the next level to hit before advancing further remains at 110.79 (September 7, 2022, high). On the downside, 107.35 (October 3, 2023, high) is still acting as strong support after several tests last week. In case more downside occurs, look for 106.52 (April 16, 2024, high), 106.21 (100-day Simple Moving Average), or even 105.89 (resistance in June 2024) as better support levels. US Dollar Index: Daily Chart US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

13:25 USD/JPY extends winning streak for third day, US CPI is on horizon
The USD/JPY pair jumps to near 154.00 in Wednesday’s European session on extending its winning streak for the third trading day.

12:58 Gold rally stalls after Fed’s Powell testimony
Gold’s price (XAU/USD) edges lower and trades below $2,900 at the time of writing on Wednesday after Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell went to Capitol Hill for his semi-annual testimony before lawmakers the previous day.

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Traders are digesting Fed Chairman Powell’s speech after a testimony with little to no fresh clues. The $3,000 level is out of the cards this week as a technical barrier must first be overcome. Gold’s price (XAU/USD) edges lower and trades below $2,900 at the time of writing on Wednesday after Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell went to Capitol Hill for his semi-annual testimony before lawmakers the previous day. Powell did not say much but stated that the current level of the monetary policy rate is helping the central bank to withstand market volatility and potential inflation shocks that could take place. The comments were enough to fuel a small surge in US bond yields. Meanwhile, traders see their beloved Fed under pressure from the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), led by Elon Musk, who already mentioned at the beginning of the week that the Fed will face scrutiny from DOGE, as it will from all other government agencies. DOGE has already tried accessing all US Treasury Data, though access to the US Treasury system remains blocked for now. Daily digest market movers: More Fed talk aheadAt 15:00 GMT, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell testifies on his second day in Congress before the US House Financial Services Committee. At 17:00 GMT, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael W. Bostic gives remarks at the Atlanta chapter of the National Association of Corporate Directors. At 22:05 GMT, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller is set to speak at "A very Stable Conference: Stablecoin Infrastructure for Real World Applications" in San Francisco, California. Australia’s second-largest Gold miner, Evolution Mining Ltd., expects prices to rise further in the near term after the company posted record first-half profits following bullion’s rally to near $3,000 an ounce, Bloomberg reports. The CME FedWatch tool shows a 95.5% chance that interest rates will remain unchanged in March, compared to a slim 4.5% chance of a 25 basis point (bps) interest rate cut. Technical Analysis: Pivot up aheadWith Fed Chairman Powell's testimony, Gold might have shot itself in the foot after its volatile session on Tuesday. With the price action now below the daily Pivot Point (at $2,907), Bullion is not facing just the Pivot Point’s resistance levels, it also needs to break through a Pivot Point level. In theory, an opening below the daily pivot is always seen as bearish and is often a sign more downside is to come in the same trading day. The first support level on Wednesday is $2,872, which is the S1 support. From there, S2 support should come in at $2,846. In case of a sharp correction, the bigger $2,790 level (October 31, 2024, high) should be able to catch any falling knives. On the upside, the daily Pivot Point at $2,907 is the first big level that needs to be recovered. From there, the R1 resistance comes in at $2,933. In case the rally continues, the $2,950 big figure psychological level and the R2 resistance at $2,968 will be tested for a break to the upside. Further up, the $3,000 psychological level could be next.XAU/USD: Daily Chart Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

12:39 Germany 30-y Bond Auction down to 2.65% from previous 2.84%
Germany 30-y Bond Auction down to 2.65% from previous 2.84%

12:32 India Industrial Output below expectations (3.9%) in December: Actual (3.2%)
India Industrial Output below expectations (3.9%) in December: Actual (3.2%)

12:32 India Cumulative Industrial Output declined to 4% in December from previous 4.1%
India Cumulative Industrial Output declined to 4% in December from previous 4.1%

12:31 India Manufacturing Output fell from previous 5.8% to 3% in December
India Manufacturing Output fell from previous 5.8% to 3% in December

12:22 AUD/USD declines from two-week high around 0.6300, US CPI in focus
The AUD/USD pair faces sharp selling pressure after failing to break above the key resistance level of 0.6300 in Wednesday’s European session.

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The Aussie pair is down 0.26% to near 0.6270, while the US Dollar Index (DXY) is broadly sideways around 108.00, at the press time. Such a scenario indicates significant weakness in the Australian Dollar (AUD). Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.10% 0.00% 0.69% 0.16% 0.34% 0.35% -0.27% EUR 0.10% 0.11% 0.78% 0.26% 0.44% 0.46% -0.16% GBP -0.01% -0.11% 0.67% 0.16% 0.33% 0.35% -0.27% JPY -0.69% -0.78% -0.67% -0.53% -0.34% -0.34% -0.95% CAD -0.16% -0.26% -0.16% 0.53% 0.19% 0.19% -0.43% AUD -0.34% -0.44% -0.33% 0.34% -0.19% 0.02% -0.61% NZD -0.35% -0.46% -0.35% 0.34% -0.19% -0.02% -0.62% CHF 0.27% 0.16% 0.27% 0.95% 0.43% 0.61% 0.62% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). The antipodean falls sharply amid firm expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will reduce interest rates next week. This would be the first interest rate cut by the RBA since 2020. Dovish RBA bets are based on a significant decline in Australian inflation, which decelerated to 2.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024. Meanwhile, deepening fears of a potential trade war between the United States (US) and China also weighed on the Australian Dollar, being a liquid proxy of the Chinese Yuan (CNY). Last week, China retaliated against 10% tariffs from Donald Trump by imposing 15% levies on coal and Liquified Natural Gas (LNG), and 10% for crude oil, farm equipment and some autos. On the US front, investors await the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for January, which will be published at 13:30 GMT. The inflation data is expected to influence market speculation for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Tuesday in the two-day testimony before Congress that the central bank can “ease policy if labor market unexpectedly weakens or inflation falls more quickly than expected". Economists expect the annual core CPI – which excludes volatile food and energy prices – to have grown at a slower pace of 3.1%, compared to 3.2% increase in December, with the headline inflation rising steadily by 2.9%. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

11:44 EUR/USD stays firm ahead of US CPI
EUR/USD moves higher to near 1.0380 in Wednesday’s European session ahead of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for January, which will be published at 13:30 GMT.

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EUR/USD moves higher to near 1.0380 in Wednesday’s European session ahead of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for January, which will be published at 13:30 GMT. The US CPI report is expected to show that annual core CPI inflation – which excludes volatile food and energy prices – grew at a slower pace of 3.1%, compared to a 3.2% increase in December. In the same period, headline CPI inflation is estimated to have remained steady at 2.9%. On month, both headline and core CPI are expected to have risen by 0.3%. The inflation data is expected to influence market speculation for how long the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates in the current range of 4.25-4.50%. Signs of a slowdown in inflationary pressures would boost Fed dovish bets. Meanwhile, sticky inflation data would suggest that the Fed should keep interest rates higher for longer. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the Fed is almost certain to hold interest rates at their current levels in the March and May policy meetings. However, there is a 50% chance that the Fed could reduce interest rates in the June meeting. On Tuesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated on the first day of a two-day testimony at Capitol Hill that the central bank is in “no rush to cut interest rates” as the economy is “strong overall”, with a lower unemployment rate and inflation staying well above the 2% target. Powell added, "We know that reducing policy restraint too fast or too much could hinder progress on inflation." This week, investors will also focus on the US Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Retail Sales data for January, which will be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD remains firm despite fears of US-EU trade war deepens EUR/USD stays firm as the Euro (EUR) continues to outperform its major peers, even though risks of a trade war between the US and the Eurozone have deepened. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned on Tuesday that 25% tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum into the US by President Donald Trump “will not go unanswered”. Von der Leyen added that the EU will act to “safeguard its economic interests” and is ready for “proportionate countermeasures”. President Donald Trump signed executive orders imposing 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports into the US without exemptions or exclusions in a way to boost local production. Trump is also poised to impose reciprocal tariffs on nations with whom he sees unfair trade practices. Market participants expect the Eurozone to face significant pressure from reciprocal tariffs. The 27-nation bloc charges 10% tariffs on automobile imports from the US and pays 2.5% import duty for domestic autos supplied to them. On the monetary policy front, traders are confident that the European Central Bank (ECB) will announce three more interest rate cuts this year amid risks of inflation undershooting the central bank’s target of 2%. The ECB already reduced its Deposit Facility Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.75% in the first policy meeting of the year in January. Going forward, investors will focus on economic growth forecasts, which will be released by the European Commission (EC) on Thursday. Technical Analysis: EUR/USD holds key support of 1.0300EUR/USD ticks higher to near 1.0380 in European trading hours on Wednesday. The major currency pair holds its recovery from the key support of 1.0300. However, the outlook of the major currency pair remains bearish as the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 1.0423 continues to be a major barricade for the Euro bulls. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the 40.00-60.00 range, indicating a sideways trend. Looking down, the January 13 low of 1.0177 and the round-level support of 1.0100 will act as major support zones for the pair. Conversely, the psychological resistance of 1.0500 will be the key barrier for the Euro bulls. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

11:36 Brent price can break above $79.40 – Société Générale
Brent decline stalled near $74 last week and it has staged an initial bounce after this test, Société Générale's FX analysts note.

Brent decline stalled near $74 last week and it has staged an initial bounce after this test, Société Générale's FX analysts note. Price of Brent oil can reach even the $82.60 level "It has crossed above a steep descending channel. First layer of resistance is located at 200-DMA near $77.80/78.35. It is worth noting that Brent has consistently struggled to establish itself above this MA since last year." "If Brent overcomes the hurdle at $77.80/78.35, the phase of rebound could extend towards $79.40 and perhaps even towards the descending trend line drawn since 2023 at $82.60."

11:30 Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data.

11:30 Gold: To grow ongoing global trade uncertainty – OCBC
Recent breakout in Gold prices towards 2942 intra-day high was due to recent play-up on trade friction and central banks keeping up with their Gold purchases (China for 3 rd consecutive month).

Recent breakout in Gold prices towards 2942 intra-day high was due to recent play-up on trade friction and central banks keeping up with their Gold purchases (China for 3 rd consecutive month). Gold was last seen at 2892 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Retracement lower is likely "But near term, there is room for retracement. In a semi-annual testimony to Senate Banking panel overnight, Powell signaled no rush to cut rates. This implies that high for longer may remain and results in higher opportunity cost associated with holding Gold. This comes in timely to keep Gold’s recent rise in check for now." "Bullish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI eased lower from oversold conditions. Retracement lower is likely. Support at 2860, 2792 (21 DMA). Bias to buy dips. Resistance at 2942 (recent high), 2960 levels. We remain constructive on the outlook of Gold amid ongoing global trade friction/ uncertainty." "Potential ballooning in US debt may bring back de-dollarisation narrative, adding to demand for Gold. Moreover, continued Gold purchases by central banks is also another driver supportive of Gold prices. Most central banks are still easing monetary policy, albeit at a slower pace. This remains marginally supportive of Gold prices overall."

11:26 USD/JPY: Still watching out for reciprocal tariffs – OCBC
USD/JPY continued to trade higher, in line with our near-term caution about the reciprocal tariff uncertainty.

USD/JPY continued to trade higher, in line with our near-term caution about the reciprocal tariff uncertainty. USD/JPY was last seen at 153.45 levels, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Rebound risks likely in the interim "Bearish momentum on daily chart intact but shows signs of fading while RSI is turning higher from near oversold conditions. Rebound risks likely in the interim. Resistance at 155.20 levels (50 DMA). Support at 152.70/80 levels (100, 200 DMAs), 151.50 (38.2% fibo retracement of Sep low to Jan high), 150 levels." "As a recap, Trump mentioned that reciprocal tariff will be applied on all nations, and we believe Japan may not be spared. When it comes to automobile, Japanese cars are amongst the top 5 most popular in US and Korean cars are on the top 10 list. On agricultural products, Japan has a high tariff rate of 204.3% for rice and 23.3% for meat." "The risk is a direct tariff hit on Japanese goods and JPY may come under pressure in this scenario."

11:22 USD/CNH: Outlook remains mixed – UOB Group
US Dollar (USD) is expected to trade in a range between 7.3000 and 7.3200.

US Dollar (USD) is expected to trade in a range between 7.3000 and 7.3200. In the longer run, outlook remains mixed, but USD is likely to trade in a narrower range of 7.2500/7.3300, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. USD likely to trade in a narrower range of 7.2500/7.3300 24-HOUR VIEW: "USD traded in a quiet manner on Monday. Yesterday (Tuesday), we noted that 'the price provides no fresh clues,' and we expected USD to trade between 7.3040 and 7.3240. USD then trade in a subdued manner between 7.3059 and 7.3146, closing largely unchanged (7.3105, +0.02%). Momentum indicators are mostly flat, and we continue to expect USD to trade in a range, likely between 7.3000 and 7.3200." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We highlighted last Friday (07 Feb, spot at 7.2865) that 'while the outlook remains mixed, the decreasing volatility over the past couple of days suggests USD could trade in a narrower range of 7.2500/7.3300.' There is no change in our view."

11:19 DXY: CPI in focus – OCBC
US Dollar (USD) traded subdued overnight in absence of fresh catalyst.

US Dollar (USD) traded subdued overnight in absence of fresh catalyst. DXY was last seen at 108 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Deceleration in core CPI may weigh on USD "In the semi-annual testimony to Senate Banking panel overnight, Fed Chair Powell signalled that the Fed was in no rush to cut which had been well priced by markets, hence impact on FX has been rather muted. The impact of Powell’s comment was more felt on gold as a no rush to cut implies high for longer may remain. This also comes timely to keep gold’s rise in check for now." "Daily momentum and RSI indicators are not showing a clear bias. Sideways trade likely for now. Support at 107.80/90 levels (50 DMA, 23.6% fibo retracement of Oct low to Jan high), 107 levels. Resistance at 108.40 (21 DMA), 110.00/20 levels (previous high)." "On data, US CPI is top focus tonight (9:30 pm SGT). A deceleration in core CPI may weigh on USD but tariff uncertainty may still imply that USD dips may be shallow. Later tonight, Powell will testify to the House Financial Services committee (11 pm). He is not expected to deviate too much from his recent remarks. Elsewhere, we are also keeping a look out on details with regards to reciprocal tariffs."

11:12 WTI falls below $72.50 following a sharp rise in US crude inventories
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price snaps a three-day winning streak, trading around $72.40 per barrel during European hours on Wednesday.

11:10 USD/JPY: Has a chance to rise further to 153.65 – UOB Group
US Dollar (USD) could rise further to 153.65; the major resistance at 154.30 is unlikely to come under threat.

US Dollar (USD) could rise further to 153.65; the major resistance at 154.30 is unlikely to come under threat. In the longer run, downward pressure has eased; USD is likely to trade in a 151.40/154.35 range for the time being, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. USD is likely to trade in a 151.40/154.35 range 24-HOUR VIEW: "In early Asian trading yesterday, we indicated that 'the price action still appears to be part of a range trading phase, probably between 151.30 and 152.35.' USD traded in a 151.63/152.60 range, closing at 152.48 (+0.32%). It rose sharply in early Asian trade today. Although upward momentum is building rapidly, the advance appears to be running ahead of itself. That said, provided that 152.30 (minor support is at 152.60) is not breached, USD could rise further to 153.65. The major resistance at 154.35 is unlikely to come under threat." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We turned negative in USD last Thursday (06 Feb, spot at 152.60). On Friday (07 Feb, spot at 151.10), we pointed out that “USD outlook remains negative, and the level to monitor is 150.00.” USD rebounded over the past couple of days, and today, it breached our ‘strong resistance’ level at 153.00. The breach of the ‘strong resistance’ level means that downward pressure has eased. The current price movements are likely part of a range trading phase. For the time being, we expect USD to trade in a 151.40/154.35 range."

11:04 Iron ore gains on supply woes – ING
Iron ore has jumped to the highest level since October 2024 with prices approaching $108/t this morning as a tropical cyclone in Australia raised concerns about supply disruptions.

Iron ore has jumped to the highest level since October 2024 with prices approaching $108/t this morning as a tropical cyclone in Australia raised concerns about supply disruptions. Demand from China remains steady "Cyclone Zelia is expected to grow stronger as it heads towards Australia’s Pilbara region and is forecast to hit near Port Hedland. Port authorities said they would close all operations this evening, clearing all berths. Pilbara has experienced above-average rainfall in recent months which has already impacted the miner’s first-quarter production levels." "The latest report from the Philippine Nickel Industry Association suggests that the country's nickel ore output could increase by 10-15% in 2025, after a fall seen last year. Demand for nickel ore has been strong from Indonesia as domestic smelters face ore shortages due to government licensing issues. Meanwhile, demand from China also remains steady. However, lawmakers in the Philippines have filed a bill to ban/limit raw mineral exports to support the downstream industry, which might keep nickel ore supplies tight." "The latest LME COTR report shows that investors increased their net bullish position in copper by 5,224 lots for a sixth consecutive week to 73,763 lots for the week ending 7 February, the highest net long since 1 November 2024. A similar move has been seen in aluminium, with speculators increasing their net bullish bets by 2,109 lots to 119,588 lots over the last reporting week. This was the highest bullish bet since the week ending 15 November 2024. For zinc, money managers increased net bullish bets by 2,992 lots after declining for two consecutive weeks to 28,167 lots as of last Friday."

11:00 NZD/USD: Likely to trade in a 0.5640/0.5675 range – UOB Group
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is likely to trade in a 0.5640/0.5675 range.

New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is likely to trade in a 0.5640/0.5675 range. In the long run, for the time being, NZD is likely to trade in a range between 0.5595 and 0.5720., UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. NZD is likely to trade in a range 24-HOUR VIEW: "Yesterday, we noted that 'downward momentum has increased somewhat.' We were of the view that NZD 'is likely to drift lower towards 0.5625.' We were also of the view that 'a clear break below this level seems unlikely.' NZD subsequently dipped to 0.5629, recovering to close at 0.5655 (+0.21%). The slight increase in upward momentum is not enough to suggest a sustained advance. Today, NZD is more likely to trade in a 0.5640/0.5675 range." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Not much has changed since our update yesterday (11 Feb, spot at 0.5640). As highlighted, for the time being, NZD is likely to trade in a range between 0.5595 and 0.5720."

11:00 Italy Industrial Output s.a. (MoM) below forecasts (-0.2%) in December: Actual (-3.1%)
Italy Industrial Output s.a. (MoM) below forecasts (-0.2%) in December: Actual (-3.1%)

11:00 Italy Industrial Output w.d.a (YoY) down to -7.1% in December from previous -1.5%
Italy Industrial Output w.d.a (YoY) down to -7.1% in December from previous -1.5%

10:59 Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD bulls have the upper hand while above 100-day SMA support
Silver (XAG/USD) struggles to capitalize on the previous day's goodish rebound from the $31.25 area, or over a one-week low, and oscillates in a narrow band through the first half of the European session on Wednesday.

10:46 Energy: API reports a large build of oil inventory – ING
The oil market is trading with marginal declines this morning as the API numbers released overnight were largely bearish for the oil market.

The oil market is trading with marginal declines this morning as the API numbers released overnight were largely bearish for the oil market. The institute reported that US crude oil inventories increased by 9.04m barrels over the last week, compared to the market expectations of a build of 2.5m barrels. If confirmed by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), this would be the biggest inventory build in a year. On the other hand, API reported large product inventory draws, with gasoline and distillate stocks falling by 2.5m barrels and 0.6m barrels respectively. The more widely followed Energy Information Administration (EIA) report will be released later today, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note. OPEC to publish its monthly oil market report on Wednesday "Yesterday, the EIA released its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, in which it forecasts 2025 US crude oil production to grow slightly by 40k b/d YoY to average a record of 13.59m b/d. Meanwhile, for 2026, the EIA expects a stronger supply growth of a little over 100k b/d YoY, which would see output averaging 13.73m b/d. This ties in with the recovery in drilling activity we have seen in recent weeks. The number of active oil rigs in the US increased by one over the week to 480." "Recent reports suggest that oil refinery runs in Russia fell in early February as drone attacks by Ukraine curtailed throughput. There are suggestions that refiners processed about 5.1m b/d of crude over the first five days of February, which is 300k b/d below the level seen for most of January. The drone assaults forced Lukoil’s Volgograd refinery to reduce the processing rates by more than half and runs remained halted at Rosneft’s Ryazan facility." "On the energy calendar for the week, apart from the usual US inventory numbers, OPEC will publish its monthly oil market report tonight. Meanwhile, the IEA will also publish its monthly oil market report tomorrow. The broader markets will also be focused on US CPI data and the final comments from the semi-annual monetary policy testimony scheduled for the week."

10:42 AUD/USD: To rise above 0.6310 – UOB Group
Chance for Australian Dollar (AUD) to rise above 0.6310; it remains to be seen if it can maintain a foothold above this level.

Chance for Australian Dollar (AUD) to rise above 0.6310; it remains to be seen if it can maintain a foothold above this level. In the longer run, buildup in momentum is fading; a break below 0.6230 would mean that AUD is likely to trade in a range, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Below 0.6230, AUD is likely to trade in a range 24-HOUR VIEW: "While we expected AUD to 'trade with a downward bias' yesterday, we pointed out, 'given the mild downward momentum, any decline is limited to a test of 0.6230.' Our expectation did not turn out, as AUD traded in a 0.6262/0.6302 range, closing at 0.6295 (+0.28%). The price action has resulted in a tentative buildup in momentum. Today, there is a chance for AUD to rise above 0.6310, but it remains to be seen if it can maintain a foothold above this level. The probability of AUD breaking above 0.6330 appears low. Support is at 0.6265; a breach of 0.6245 would suggest that the upward pressure has eased." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Last Thursday (06 Feb, spot at 0.6280), we indicated that 'if AUD closes above 0.6310, it could trigger an advance to 0.6355.' AUD did not make any headway on the upside, and yesterday (11 Feb, spot at 0.6270), we highlighted that that the recent 'buildup in momentum is fading, and if AUD breaks below 0.6230 (‘strong support’ level), it would mean that AUD is likely to trade in a range.' Although short-term momentum has increased somewhat, AUD must break and remain above 0.6310 before further advance can be expected. The likelihood of AUD breaking clearly above 0.6310 will remain intact as long as 0.6230 (no change in ‘strong support’) is not breached."

10:39 AUD/JPY climbs to near 96.50 as Ueda avoids offering clear guidance on the policy outlook
AUD/JPY extends its winning streak for a third consecutive session, trading around 96.50 during European hours on Wednesday.

10:34 USD: The surprise would be a 0.2% MoM CPI today – ING
The Dollar Index (DXY) was a little softer yesterday – largely on the back of some strength in the euro.

The Dollar Index (DXY) was a little softer yesterday – largely on the back of some strength in the euro. There is a sense of fatigue in some of the Trump trades, where this year's U-turns on tariffs have made it a lot harder to reach definitive conclusions. At present, we are waiting to hear if 'reciprocal' tariffs are coming this week. At a country level that could leave the likes of Korea, India, and Brazil the most exposed, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes. 107.30/50 could be the risk on DXY "The challenge for traders is that, despite some fatigue in the Trump trades, there's no way to predict if tomorrow will be the day Washington significantly expands tariffs. That's why we're reluctant to call a meaningful dollar correction without some kind of macro-supporting evidence." "Could that evidence come through today? Well, there are annual benchmark revisions to the US CPI series due today. These are a little uncertain but could increase the risk of today's US January CPI release coming in at 0.2% month-on-month versus the expected 0.3%. At a stretch, this could point to the Fed having a little more confidence in the disinflation process and the market shifting back to pricing 50bp of 2025 rate cuts versus just the 35bp priced today." "Given some sense of stability in financial markets as US interest rate volatility falls – the MOVE index is dipping back to January lows – we see a little downside risk to the dollar now. 107.30/50 could be the risk on DXY. However, a new round of tariffs could easily blow any ideas of a dollar correction out of the water."

10:29 GBP/USD: Likely to continue to rise – UOB Group
Pound Sterling (GBP) is likely to continue to rise; 1.2500 is expected to provide strong resistance.

Pound Sterling (GBP) is likely to continue to rise; 1.2500 is expected to provide strong resistance. In the longer run, for the time being, GBP is likely to trade in a 1.2310/1.2550 range, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. 1.2500 is expected to provide strong resistance 24-HOUR VIEW: "We detected 'a tentative buildup in downward momentum' yesterday. We highlighted that this 'could lead to GBP edging lower today, but the major support at 1.2310 is unlikely to come into view.' GBP subsequently dropped to 1.2333 before staging a surprisingly strong advance, closing on a firm note at 1.2446 (+0.66%). While GBP is likely to continue to rise, any further advance is expected to face strong resistance at 1.2500. The major resistance at 1.2550 is unlikely to come under threat. To sustain the momentum, GBP must remain above 1.2400, with minor support at 1.2425." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Our latest narrative was from last Friday (09 Feb, spot at 1.2440), wherein 'for the time being, GBP is likely to trade in a 1.2310/1.2550 range.' There is no change in our narrative for now."

10:23 EUR/CHF can move towards 0.9500/9520 this week – ING
EUR/CHF seems to be recovering, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

EUR/CHF seems to be recovering, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes. Upside risks to EUR/CHF may be growing "Again the Ukraine story may be playing a role given that EUR/CHF was trading above 1.05 before Russia invaded Ukraine. A softer Swiss inflation print today and the prospect of even lower inflation next quarter (the Swiss National Bank forecasts the YoY rate dropping to 0.2%) warns that upside risks to EUR/CHF may be growing." "We could see 0.9500/9520 this week as investors reprice for some positive Ukraine news out of this weekend's Munich security conference."

10:19 EUR/USD: Likely to trade with an upward bias – UOB Group
Euro (EUR) is likely to trade with an upward bias; a clear break above 1.0405 appears unlikely.

Euro (EUR) is likely to trade with an upward bias; a clear break above 1.0405 appears unlikely. In the longer run, outlook remains unclear; price movements are likely to stay within a 1.0250/1.0450 range for now, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Clear break above 1.0405 appears unlikely 24-HOUR VIEW: "Yesterday, we expected EUR to 'drift lower.' However, instead of drifting lower, EUR rose sharply, reaching a high of 1.0380 in NY trade. Upward momentum is building, and EUR is likely to trade with an upward bias today. Currently, it does not appear to have enough momentum to break clearly above 1.0405 (minor resistance is at 1.0385). Support is at 1.0340; a breach of 1.0315 would indicate that the buildup in momentum has faded." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "There is not much to add to our update from yesterday (11 Feb, spot at 1.0305). As highlighted, 'the outlook remains unclear, but the price movements are likely to stay within a narrower 1.0250/1.0450 range for now.”

10:17 EUR: Exploring the upside – ING
We're having a lot of internal discussions about the outperformance of eurozone equities this year.

We're having a lot of internal discussions about the outperformance of eurozone equities this year. Factors that could be relevant here are: eurozone macro data slightly surprising to the upside, the European Central Bank having more room to cut than the Fed, US markets trading on much higher multiples than Europe, and perhaps even speculation about a ceasefire in Ukraine, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes. EUR/USD may recover towards the 1.0450 area "As FX analysts we note that periods of rotation into eurozone equities can help the euro, since equity investments are largely non-FX hedged. We recall 2017 when relief after the French and Dutch elections prompted a major rerating of eurozone equities and the euro." "Frankly, it's hard to see such optimism coming through for the euro today. Growth remains poor, the fiscal cavalry remains in its barracks and the ECB may well be cutting by another 100bp this year to keep rate spreads wide. That is why, if we do see any short-term recovery in EUR/USD to say the 1.0450 area, it may well peter out there."

10:12 NZD/USD Price Forecast: Remains above 0.5650, resistance appears at nine-day EMA
The NZD/USD pair edges lower after registering losses in the previous session, trading around 0.5650 during the European hours on Wednesday.

10:01 Crude oil price today: WTI price bearish, according to FXStreet data
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data.

09:57 Pound Sterling holds onto gains against US Dollar ahead of US CPI
The Pound Sterling (GBP) clings to gains near 1.2450 against the US Dollar (USD) in Wednesday’s European session.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Pound Sterling stays strong near Tuesday’s high of 1.2450 against the US Dollar ahead of the US CPI data for January.Fed’s Powell stated that the central bank is in no rush to cut interest rates.The UK economy is expected to have contracted by 0.1% in the last quarter of 2024.The Pound Sterling (GBP) clings to gains near 1.2450 against the US Dollar (USD) in Wednesday’s European session. The GBP/USD pair exhibits strength ahead of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for January, which will be published at 13:30 GMT. Economists expect the annual core CPI – which excludes volatile food and energy prices – to have grown at a slower pace of 3.1%, compared to a 3.2% increase in December. In the same period, the headline CPI inflation is estimated to have remained steady at 2.9%. The month-on-month headline and core CPI are expected to have risen by 0.3%. Market participants will pay close attention to US inflation data, which will influence speculation about how long the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates steady in the range of 4.25%-4.50%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on the first day of his two-day testimony before the US Congress on Tuesday that the central bank is in “no hurry to cut interest rates”, given resilient economic growth and sticky inflationary pressures. Powell argued that reducing policy restraint “too fast or too much” could “hinder progress on inflation”. Ahead of the US inflation data, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades slightly higher near 108.00. Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling gains despite growing concerns over UK demand outlook The Pound Sterling trades higher against its major peers on Wednesday. However, the outlook of the British economy is uncertain as Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Catherine Mann is worried about the United Kingdom (UK) demand outlook and sees the need to accommodate financial conditions. On Tuesday, Catherine Mann said in an interview with the Financial Times (FT) that demand conditions are quite a bit “weaker than has been the case”. Mann favored a bigger interest rate reduction in last week’s policy meeting in which the BoE unanimously decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps). Investors were surprised by Mann’s vote for a 50 bps interest rate cut as she has been an outspoken hawk. On it, Mann clarified in the interview that she wanted to communicate to traders “what we think are the appropriate financial conditions for the UK economy”. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump’s international agenda will continue to keep investors in risk-sensitive assets on their toes. Donald Trump is poised to announce reciprocal tariffs after signing executive orders imposing a 25% levy on steel and aluminum imports into the US without exemptions or exclusions. Going forward, investors will focus on the United Kingdom's Q4 and December month Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, which will be released on Thursday. The UK economy is expected to have contracted by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter after remaining flat in the third quarter of 2024. On year, the economy is estimated to have expanded by 1.1% compared to the same quarter of 2023, faster than the 0.9% growth in the July-September period. Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling stays firm near 1.2450The Pound Sterling trades near Tuesday’s high around 1.2450 against the US Dollar in the European session on Wednesday. However, the outlook of the GBP/USD pair remains bearish as the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 1.2484 continues to be a major barrier for the Pound Sterling bulls. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting a sideways trend. Looking down, the January 13 low of 1.2100 and the October 2023 low of 1.2050 will act as key support zones for the pair. On the upside, the December 30 high of 1.2607 will act as key resistance. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

09:54 ECB’s Villeroy: Trump’s protectionism to be negative for economy
In an interview with France Culture radio on Wednesdaty, European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker and Bank of France head Francois Villeroy de Galhau said that US President Donald Trump’s trade policies will most likely have a negative impact on the economy.

In an interview with France Culture radio on Wednesdaty, European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker and Bank of France head Francois Villeroy de Galhau said that US President Donald Trump’s trade policies will most likely have a negative impact on the economy. Key quotes "There will very likely be a negative effect.” "Protectionism is a seductive short-term policy, but in the long term it is a losing strategy.” “France would likely avoid an economic recession in 2025.“

09:42 EUR/GBP hovers near 1.0850 as reciprocal tariff threats from US weigh on market sentiment
EUR/GBP remains steady after losses in the previous session, hovering around 0.8330 during early European trading hours on Wednesday.

09:15 Forex Today: US inflation data, Trump tariff talks to drive market action
Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, February 12: Major currency pairs continue to fluctuate in relatively tight weekly ranges as investors gear up for the next key macroeconomic events.

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The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Consumer price Index (CPI) data for January later in the day and Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell will testify before the House Financial Services Committee. US Dollar PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.33% -0.39% 1.49% 0.03% -0.25% 0.22% 0.39% EUR 0.33% 0.00% 1.96% 0.48% 0.08% 0.64% 0.80% GBP 0.39% -0.01% 1.80% 0.44% 0.07% 0.64% 0.79% JPY -1.49% -1.96% -1.80% -1.48% -1.65% -1.26% -1.07% CAD -0.03% -0.48% -0.44% 1.48% -0.25% 0.17% 0.32% AUD 0.25% -0.08% -0.07% 1.65% 0.25% 0.57% 0.73% NZD -0.22% -0.64% -0.64% 1.26% -0.17% -0.57% 0.16% CHF -0.39% -0.80% -0.79% 1.07% -0.32% -0.73% -0.16% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). Investors will also keep a close eye on fresh developments surrounding US President Donald Trump's trade policy. When asked if reciprocal tariffs will be announced on Wednesday, "we'll see" Trump responded while speaking to reporters late Tuesday. Related newsChairman Powell reiterates that the Fed is on hold for the long haul CPI Data to reveal US inflation holding firm in January, with Fed’s target still out of reach Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD challenges critical support ahead of US CPI inflation testOn the first day of his testimony before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday, Powell reiterated that they do not need to be in a hurry to adjust the monetary policy. "The US is economy strong overall; inflation is closer to 2% goal but still somewhat elevated," he noted in his prepared remarks. Powell is likely to read the same statement later today before responding to questions from lawmakers. After edging higher on Monday, the US Dollar (USD) Index lost its traction and closed in the negative territory on Tuesday. Early Wednesday, the index holds steady at around 108.00. Meanwhile, US stock index futures trade flat following the mixed action seen in Wall Street on Tuesday.EUR/USD benefited from the renewed USD weakness in the American session and gained more than 0.5% on Tuesday. The pair holds steady above 1.0350 in the European morning on Wednesday.GBP/USD staged a rebound and snapped a three-day losing streak on Tuesday. The pair trades in a narrow channel at around 1.2450 to begin the European session. US President Donald's trade adviser Peter Navarro said late Tuesday that Australia was "killing the aluminum market," the day after Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said that Trump had agreed to consider an exemption for Australia over steel and aluminum tariffs. This headline failed to trigger a noticeable reaction in AUD/USD. At the time of press, the pair was trading marginally lower on the day, slightly below 0.6300.USD/JPY gathers bullish momentum early Wednesday and builds on its weekly gains, rising nearly 0.7% at around 153.50. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said early Wednesday that the Japanese central bank will continue to conduct its monetary policy with the aim of achieving its 2% inflation goal sustainably and stably.Gold staged a deep correction from the record-high it set above $2,940 early Tuesday and closed the day in the red below $2,900. XAU/USD struggles to regain its traction and trades at around $2,890 early Wednesday. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.

08:55 USD/CAD gathers strength near 1.4300, traders await US CPI release
The USD/CAD pair gathers strength to around 1.4295 on Wednesday during the early European session, bolstered by a firmer US Dollar (USD).

08:12 USD/CHF holds steady above 0.9100, US CPI data in focus
The USD/CHF pair trades on a flat note around 0.9130 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday.

07:59 FX option expiries for Feb 12 NY cut
FX option expiries for Feb 12 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

FX option expiries for Feb 12 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below. EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.0200 1.8b 1.0270 1.3b 1.0300 1.6b 1.0325 1b 1.0400 850m 1.0430 1.4b 1.0450 832m 1.0485 1.2b 1.0490 742m GBP/USD: GBP amounts 1.2450 609m USD/JPY: USD amounts 150.00 499m 153.15 499m 153.50 865m 153.70 602m 155.30 568m AUD/USD: AUD amounts 0.6175 925m 0.6200 1.1b 0.6460 561m EUR/GBP: EUR amounts 0.8390 494m

07:57 US Dollar Index Price Forecast: Treads water above nine-day EMA support near 108.00
The US Dollar Index (DXY) recovers its losses from the previous two sessions, trading around 108.10 during Asian hours on Wednesday.

07:12 GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Next upside barrier emerges near 193.50
The GBP/JPY cross trades in positive territory near 191.20 during the early European session on Wednesday.

07:00 CPI Data set to show steady US inflation in January, still above Fed’s target
The United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics will release January’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Wednesday at 13:30 GMT.

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50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The US Consumer Price Index is seen rising 2.9% YoY in January.The core CPI inflation should remain sticky well above the Fed’s goal.Investors have so far pencilled in a Fed rate cut in June.The United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics will release January’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Wednesday at 13:30 GMT. As a key indicator of inflation, this report might influence the US Dollar’s (USD) price action in the short-term horizon, although it’s not expected to lead to any immediate changes in the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy stance. What to expect in the next CPI data report? All eyes will be on the upcoming inflation numbers in the US. That said, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show an annual increase of 2.9% in January—matching the previous month’s reading. When you strip out the volatile food and energy prices to get a clearer picture, the core CPI is predicted to still remain above the Fed’s target at 3.1% compared to a year ago. On a monthly basis, forecasts point to a 0.3% bump in both metrics. Previewing the report, analysts at TD Securities noted: “We look for core CPI inflation to accelerate in January following a softer than expected 0.23% m/m gain in December. The typical Q1 price resets are likely to play a role, with services inflation picking up sequential strength. On a y/y basis, headline CPI inflation is expected to stay unchanged at 2.9%; likewise for core inflation which likely remained elevated at 3.2% y/y”. Returning to the Fed’s hawkish stance at its January 28-29 meeting, it is worth noting that the Committee removed the reference to inflation “has made progress” towards the 2% target from its statement. Later, during his usual press conference, Chair Jerome Powell argued that the Fed would only consider further cuts once it observed real progress on inflation or signs of weakness in the labour market. He also mentioned that it had become increasingly challenging to predict the direction of inflation, partly due to growing uncertainty about which policies President Donald Trump might adopt and how quickly those measures would impact the economy. How could the US Consumer Price Index report affect EUR/USD? Uncertainty about tariffs and trade policy under the Trump administration remains high and has been weighing on the US Dollar (USD) in recent days, allowing for a modest recovery in risk-linked assets at the expense of the US Dollar Index (DXY). Meanwhile, although the latest US Nonfarm Payrolls report showed that the economy added fewer jobs than expected in January, it did note a decline in the jobless rate to 4.0% along with steady wage inflation indicators—factors that support the view of a healthy and resilient domestic labour market. This, combined with stubborn inflation and the Fed's cautious stance, should keep the Greenback’s constructive outlook unchanged for the time being. Regarding the Fed, market participants now anticipate that the central bank will resume its easing cycle in June, with another quarter-point reduction already penciled in. Turning to EUR/USD, Pablo Piovano, Senior Analyst at FXStreet, shared his technical outlook. He identified the February low of 1.0209, reached on February 3, as the immediate area of contention. Losing this level could bring a potential drop to the 2025 bottom of 1.0176 (recorded on January 13) back into focus before the pair approaches the psychological parity mark of 1.0000. On the upside, resistance is seen at the 2025 high of 1.0436 (from January 6), further supported by the December top of 1.0629 (from December 6), an area reinforced by the interim 100-day SMA. Piovano also noted that the bearish outlook for the pair should remain in place as long as it trades below the critical 200-day SMA at 1.0752. In addition, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) has receded to the 43 level, indicating a loss of momentum, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) hovering around 18 denotes a weak trend. Economic Indicator Consumer Price Index (MoM) Inflationary or deflationary tendencies are measured by periodically summing the prices of a basket of representative goods and services and presenting the data as The Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI data is compiled on a monthly basis and released by the US Department of Labor Statistics. The MoM figure compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the previous month.The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Wed Feb 12, 2025 13:30 Frequency: MonthlyConsensus: 0.3%Previous: 0.4%Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Why it matters to traders? The US Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of maintaining price stability and maximum employment. According to such mandate, inflation should be at around 2% YoY and has become the weakest pillar of the central bank’s directive ever since the world suffered a pandemic, which extends to these days. Price pressures keep rising amid supply-chain issues and bottlenecks, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hanging at multi-decade highs. The Fed has already taken measures to tame inflation and is expected to maintain an aggressive stance in the foreseeable future. Inflation FAQs What is inflation? Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%. What is the Consumer Price Index (CPI)? The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls. What is the impact of inflation on foreign exchange? Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money. How does inflation influence the price of Gold? Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.

06:53 EUR/JPY rallies to one-week top, further beyond 159.00 amid notable JPY weakness
The EUR/JPY cross builds on this week's solid recovery move from the vicinity of mid-155.00s, or the lowest level since August 2024, and gains strong follow-through positive traction for the third straight day on Wednesday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/JPY prolongs its strong weekly uptrend for the third straight day on Wednesday.Worries that Trump’s tariffs could derail Japan’s economy weigh heavily on the JPY.Rising trade tensions and the ECB’s dovish stance might cap further gains for the cross.The EUR/JPY cross builds on this week's solid recovery move from the vicinity of mid-155.00s, or the lowest level since August 2024, and gains strong follow-through positive traction for the third straight day on Wednesday. The momentum lifts spot prices to a one-week high, around the 159.30 area during the Asian session, and is sponsored by the heavily offered tone surrounding the Japanese Yen (JPY). Concerns about the potential economic fallout from US President Donald Trump's new tariffs on commodity imports turn out to be a key factor behind the JPY's relative underperformance against major currencies. This, along with a generally positive risk, offset the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) rate-hike plans and further undermines the safe-haven JPY, which, in turn, provides an additional boost to the EUR/JPY cross. The shared currency, on the other hand, struggles to attract any meaningful buyers in the wake of rising trade tensions. In fact, Trump's no-exemption tariffs effectively end deals with the European Union and other countries. Adding to this, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said that the European Union (EU) will respond to Trump's latest tariffs announcement. This, along with the European Central Bank's (ECB) dovish stance, might keep a lid on any further appreciating move for the EUR/JPY cross. This, in turn, warrants some caution before confirming that spot prices have formed a near-term bottom and placing fresh bullish bets. In the absence of any relevant market-moving economic releases, the currency pair remains at the mercy of the JPY price dynamics. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.

06:51 EUR/USD remains above 1.0350, downside seems possible due to reciprocal tariff threats
EUR/USD remains steady around 1.0360 during Asian trading hours on Wednesday after gaining in the previous session.

06:36 India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices fell in India on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

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The price for Gold stood at 8,036.74 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 8,068.26 it cost on Tuesday. The price for Gold decreased to INR 93,738.59 per tola from INR 94,106.55 per tola a day earlier. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 8,036.74 10 Grams 80,368.20 Tola 93,738.59 Troy Ounce 249,968.90 FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly. Related newsGold price remains depressed below $2,900; downside potential seems limited Gold slumps as bulls take a breather amid trade war tensions Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD regains the $2,900 mark amid USD weakness Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

06:12 Gold price remains depressed below $2,900; downside potential seems limited
Gold price (XAU/USD) trades with a mild negative bias for the second straight day, though it lacks follow-through selling and holds steady just below the $2,900 mark during the Asian session on Wednesday.

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Trade war fears should help limit any corrective slide for the safe-haven XAU/USD pair.Gold price (XAU/USD) trades with a mild negative bias for the second straight day, though it lacks follow-through selling and holds steady just below the $2,900 mark during the Asian session on Wednesday. The US Dollar (USD) ticked higher in the wake of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell's hawkish remarks on Tuesday, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor undermining the commodity. That said, concerns about the potential economic fallout from US President Donald Trump's trade tariffs and global trade war fears continue to act as a tailwind for the safe-haven bullion. Traders also seem reluctant to place aggressive directional bets and opt to move to the sidelines ahead of the release of the latest US consumer inflation figures, due later this Wednesday. The crucial data will play a key role in influencing market expectations about the Fed's rate-cut path, which, in turn, will drive the USD demand and determine the next leg of a directional move for the Gold price. Nevertheless, Trump-related anxieties warrant some caution before positioning for an extension of the previous day's sharp pullback from the $2,942-2,943 area, or a fresh all-time peak. Gold price is pressured by a modest USD strength; trade war fears should help limit losses Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, in remarks before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday, called the economy strong overall with a solid labor market and said that inflation is easing but still above the 2% goal. This comes on top of Friday's mostly upbeat US employment details and expectations that US President Donald Trump's policies would reignite inflationary pressure, which could allow the Fed to stick to its hawkish stance. The US Dollar gains some positive traction in the wake of rising bets that the Fed would hold interest rates steady in the foreseeable future and exert pressure on the Gold price for the second consecutive day on Wednesday. US President Donald Trump signed executive orders to impose 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports into the US and promised broader reciprocal tariffs to match the levies other governments charge on US products. Trump also signaled he would look at imposing additional tariffs on automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and computer chips, which fueled worries about a global trade war and acts as a tailwind for the safe-haven precious metal. Investors now look forward to the release of the latest US consumer inflation figures for fresh cues about the Fed's rate-cut path and determining the near-term trajectory for the USD and the non-yielding yellow metal. The headline US Consumer Price Index is seen rising 2.9% YoY in January and the core CPI (excluding food and energy prices) coming in at a 3.1% YoY rate, slightly lower than the 3.2% recorded in the previous month. Gold price technical setup supports prospects for the emergence of dip-buyers at lower levelsFrom a technical perspective, the overnight Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart turns out to be a key factor that prompts some profit-taking around the Gold price. That said, any further slide might still be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited near the $2,855-2,852 region. This is followed by support near the $2,834 area, which if broken could drag the XAU/USD further towards the $2,800 mark. On the flip side, bulls might now wait for a move back above the $2,910 immediate hurdle before placing fresh bets. The subsequent move up could lift the Gold price back towards the $2,942-2,943 region, or the all-time peak touched on Tuesday. Some follow-through buying would set the stage for an extension of the recent well-established uptrend witnessed over the past two months or so. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.

06:06 GBP/USD holds gains near 1.2450, downside risks appear due to hawkish Fed
GBP/USD remains steady after registering gains in the previous session, trading around 1.2450 during the Asian hours on Wednesday.

05:53 US President Trump on likely reciprocal tariffs: We'll see
When asked if reciprocal tariffs are still coming on Wednesday, US President Donald Trump said 'we'll see'.

When asked if reciprocal tariffs are still coming on Wednesday, US President Donald Trump said 'we'll see'.

05:30 CPI Data set to show steady US inflation in January, still above Fed’s target
The United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics will release January’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Wednesday at 13:30 GMT.

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50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The US Consumer Price Index is seen rising 2.9% YoY in January.The core CPI inflation should remain sticky well above the Fed’s goal.Investors have so far pencilled in a Fed rate cut in June.The United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics will release January’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Wednesday at 13:30 GMT. As a key indicator of inflation, this report might influence the US Dollar’s (USD) price action in the short-term horizon, although it’s not expected to lead to any immediate changes in the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy stance. What to expect in the next CPI data report? All eyes will be on the upcoming inflation numbers in the US. That said, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show an annual increase of 2.9% in January—matching the previous month’s reading. When you strip out the volatile food and energy prices to get a clearer picture, the core CPI is predicted to still remain above the Fed’s target at 3.1% compared to a year ago. On a monthly basis, forecasts point to a 0.3% bump in both metrics. Previewing the report, analysts at TD Securities noted: “We look for core CPI inflation to accelerate in January following a softer than expected 0.23% m/m gain in December. The typical Q1 price resets are likely to play a role, with services inflation picking up sequential strength. On a y/y basis, headline CPI inflation is expected to stay unchanged at 2.9%; likewise for core inflation which likely remained elevated at 3.2% y/y”. Returning to the Fed’s hawkish stance at its January 28-29 meeting, it is worth noting that the Committee removed the reference to inflation “has made progress” towards the 2% target from its statement. Later, during his usual press conference, Chair Jerome Powell argued that the Fed would only consider further cuts once it observed real progress on inflation or signs of weakness in the labour market. He also mentioned that it had become increasingly challenging to predict the direction of inflation, partly due to growing uncertainty about which policies President Donald Trump might adopt and how quickly those measures would impact the economy. How could the US Consumer Price Index report affect EUR/USD? Uncertainty about tariffs and trade policy under the Trump administration remains high and has been weighing on the US Dollar (USD) in recent days, allowing for a modest recovery in risk-linked assets at the expense of the US Dollar Index (DXY). Meanwhile, although the latest US Nonfarm Payrolls report showed that the economy added fewer jobs than expected in January, it did note a decline in the jobless rate to 4.0% along with steady wage inflation indicators—factors that support the view of a healthy and resilient domestic labour market. This, combined with stubborn inflation and the Fed's cautious stance, should keep the Greenback’s constructive outlook unchanged for the time being. Regarding the Fed, market participants now anticipate that the central bank will resume its easing cycle in June, with another quarter-point reduction already penciled in. Turning to EUR/USD, Pablo Piovano, Senior Analyst at FXStreet, shared his technical outlook. He identified the February low of 1.0209, reached on February 3, as the immediate area of contention. Losing this level could bring a potential drop to the 2025 bottom of 1.0176 (recorded on January 13) back into focus before the pair approaches the psychological parity mark of 1.0000. On the upside, resistance is seen at the 2025 high of 1.0436 (from January 6), further supported by the December top of 1.0629 (from December 6), an area reinforced by the interim 100-day SMA. Piovano also noted that the bearish outlook for the pair should remain in place as long as it trades below the critical 200-day SMA at 1.0752. In addition, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) has receded to the 43 level, indicating a loss of momentum, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) hovering around 18 denotes a weak trend. Economic Indicator Consumer Price Index (YoY) Inflationary or deflationary tendencies are measured by periodically summing the prices of a basket of representative goods and services and presenting the data as The Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI data is compiled on a monthly basis and released by the US Department of Labor Statistics. The YoY reading compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the same month a year earlier.The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Wed Feb 12, 2025 13:30 Frequency: MonthlyConsensus: 2.9%Previous: 2.9%Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Why it matters to traders? The US Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of maintaining price stability and maximum employment. According to such mandate, inflation should be at around 2% YoY and has become the weakest pillar of the central bank’s directive ever since the world suffered a pandemic, which extends to these days. Price pressures keep rising amid supply-chain issues and bottlenecks, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hanging at multi-decade highs. The Fed has already taken measures to tame inflation and is expected to maintain an aggressive stance in the foreseeable future. Inflation FAQs What is inflation? Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%. What is the Consumer Price Index (CPI)? The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls. What is the impact of inflation on foreign exchange? Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money. How does inflation influence the price of Gold? Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.

05:12 USD/INR weakens on RBI intervention, investors brace for US CPI release
The Indian Rupee (INR) extends its upside on Wednesday, bolstered by the strong intervention from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).

04:49 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rises to near $32.00 amid rising Middle-East tensions
Silver price (XAG/USD) retraces its recent losses, hovering around $31.90 per troy ounce during Wednesday's Asian session.

04:32 Japanese Yen dives to one-week low against USD amid rising trade tensions
The Japanese Yen (JPY) drifts lower for the third straight day on Wednesday and slides to a one-week low against its American counterpart during the Asian session.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Japanese Yen continues losing ground amid worries about Trump’s trade tariffs.Fed’s hawkish stance revives the USD demand and lends support to the USD/JPY pair.Rising bets for another BoJ rate hike in March should limit any meaningful JPY slide. The Japanese Yen (JPY) drifts lower for the third straight day on Wednesday and slides to a one-week low against its American counterpart during the Asian session. Worries that US President Donald Trump's no-exemption tariffs on commodity imports could endanger Japan's economic stability, along with a generally positive tone around the equity markets, undermine the safe-haven JPY. Apart from this, the emergence of some US Dollar (USD) buying lifts the USD/JPY pair back closer to mid-153.00s in the last hour. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell said on Tuesday that the US central bank is in no rush to cut rates amid concerns that Trump's trade policies could fuel inflation, which, in turn, helps revive the USD demand. Furthermore, Trump's remarks temper hopes for a sharp narrowing of the US-Japan rate differential and contribute to driving flows away from the lower-yielding JPY. That said, the growing acceptance that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hike interest rates again could limit any further JPY losses. Japanese Yen bears seize control amid concerns that Trump’s tariffs could threaten Japan’s economic stability US President Donald Trump signed executive orders to impose 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from March 12. Trump also signaled he would look at imposing additional tariffs on automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and computer chips, and promised broader reciprocal tariffs to match the levies other governments charge on US products. The announcement raises the risk of a further escalation of global trade tensions and threatens to negatively affect the Japanese economy. This, in turn, is seen weighing heavily on the Japanese Yen and assists the USD/JPY pair to build on a one-week-old goodish recovery move from sub-151.00 levels, or a near two-month low touched last week. Japan's Finance Minister, Katsunobu Kato said earlier this Wednesday that he will assess the impact of US tariffs on the Japanese economy and respond appropriately. Separately, Japan industry minister Yoji Muto requested the US to exclude Japan from steel and aluminum tariffs. This, however, does little to provide any respite to the JPY bulls. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, in remarks before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday, struck a more hawkish tone and called the economy strong overall with a solid labor market. Powell added that inflation is closer to the 2% goal but still somewhat elevated and signaled that policymakers aren’t in a rush to push interest rates lower. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated earlier today that the central bank will conduct monetary policy appropriately in order to achieve the 2% inflation target. Moreover, the recent wage growth data and the broadening inflationary pressures in the economy back the case for another BoJ rate hike move at the March policy meeting. Traders now look forward to the release of the latest US consumer inflation figures, which, along with Powell's congressional testimony, will drive the US Dollar and the USD/JPY pair. The headline US Consumer Price Index is seen rising 2.9% YoY in January and the core CPI (excluding food and energy prices) coming in at a 3.1% YoY rate. USD/JPY is likely to attract fresh sellers and remain capped near the 38.2% Fibo. level, around the 154.00 markFrom a technical perspective, a sustained breakout above the 152.75 confluence hurdle could be seen as a key trigger for bullish traders and support prospects for a further intraday appreciating move. The said area comprises the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the January-February decline, the 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA), which, in turn, should act as a pivotal point for the USD/JPY pair. Meanwhile, oscillators on the daily chart – though they have been recovering – are still holding in negative territory. This, in turn, suggests that any subsequent move-up is likely to attract fresh sellers and remain capped near the 154.00 mark. The latter coincides with the 38.2% Fibo. level, above which the USD/JPY pair could accelerate the recovery towards the 154.70-154.75 region en route to the 155.00 psychological mark. On the flip side, the 153.00 round figure, followed by the 152.75 confluence now seems to protect the immediate downside. A convincing break below the latter would reaffirm the near-term negative outlook and drag the USD/JPY pair back below the 152.00 mark, towards the next relevant support near the 151.30-151.25 region. Spot prices could eventually drop to sub-151.00 levels, or a near two-month low touched last Friday. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.

03:54 BoJ’s Ueda says will conduct monetary policy appropriately for 2% inflation target
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said early Wednesday that the Japanese central bank will continue to conduct its monetary policy with the aim of achieving its 2% inflation goal sustainably and stably.

03:53 Australian Dollar remains steady due to risk-off sentiment, Fed’s cautious signals
The Australian Dollar (AUD) maintains its position against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian Dollar could face challenges due to rising trade tensions following President Trump’s tariff hike.The AUD could further decline amid rising geopolitical risks as Israeli PM Netanyahu warned to end the ceasefire in Gaza.The US Dollar may strengthen as Fed’s Powell signaled there is no urgency to cut interest rates.The Australian Dollar (AUD) maintains its position against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday. However, the AUD/USD pair faced challenges due to US President Donald Trump’s 25% tariff hike and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s indication that the central bank was in no hurry to cut interest rates further. President Trump’s trade adviser, Peter Navarro, criticized Australia late Tuesday, accusing the country of "killing the aluminum market" just a day after Trump signed executive orders imposing import tariffs on certain metals. Australia is seeking exemptions from the new steel and aluminum tariffs, with Trump previously stating he would give "great consideration" to Australia's request due to the trade imbalance between the two nations. Australian Trade Minister Don Farrell reiterated on Monday that Australia is pushing for a tariff exemption similar to the one it secured under Trump’s administration in 2018. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks remain elevated. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned late Tuesday that the ceasefire would end, and Israel would resume "intense fighting" in Gaza if Hamas did not release hostages by Saturday noon, according to the BBC. Domestically, expectations for a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate cut are mounting. The central bank, currently holding a 4.35% cash rate, is widely anticipated to lower it at its February meeting. Traders now see a 95% probability of a cut to 4.10%, as recent data suggests underlying inflation is cooling faster than the RBA had projected. Australian Dollar could decline amid rising odds of Fed’s hawkish stance The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the US Dollar’s value against six major currencies, maintains its position near 108.00 at the time of writing. Traders await US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation due on Wednesday. Headline US CPI inflation is expected to hold at 2.9% YoY, while core CPI inflation is forecast to tick down to 3.1% versus the last print of 3.2%. In his semi-annual report to Congress, Fed’s Powell said the Fed officials “do not need to be in a hurry" to cut interest rates due to strength in the job market and solid economic growth. He added that US President Donald Trump's tariff policies could put more upward pressure on prices, making it harder for the central bank to lower rates. A Reuters poll of economists now suggests the Federal Reserve will delay cutting interest rates until next quarter amid rising inflation concerns. Many who had previously expected a March rate cut have revised their forecasts. The majority of economists surveyed between February 4-10 anticipate at least one rate cut by June, though opinions on the exact timing remain divided. The US Dollar receives support as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is now expected to keep interest rates steady this year, following January’s jobs report released on Friday, which indicated slowing job growth but a lower Unemployment Rate. US President Donald Trump decided to expand steel and aluminum tariffs by 25% to include all imports, nullifying trade agreements with key US allies, including Australia. The White House confirmed that all import tax exclusions had been removed and indicated that further action on microchips and vehicles would be considered in the coming weeks. Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee mentioned on Friday that inconsistent policy approaches from the US government cause a high level of economic uncertainty that makes it difficult for the Fed to draw a bead on where the economy, and inflation specifically, are likely heading. Meanwhile, Fed Board of Governors member Adriana Kugler noted that US growth and economic activity remain healthy overall, but noted that progress toward the Fed's inflation goals has been somewhat lopsided, per Reuters. In an interview with CNBC, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said that he would move towards supporting further rate cuts if they see good inflation data and the labor market stays strong China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) grew at an annual rate of 0.5% in January, up from 0.1% in December and exceeding the market forecast of 0.4%. On a monthly basis, CPI inflation rose 0.7% in January, compared to December’s flat reading of 0%, though it fell short of the expected 0.8% increase. Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar remains below 0.6300; support appears at nine-day EMA The AUD/USD pair hovers near 0.6290 on Wednesday, maintaining its position above the nine- and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) on the daily chart. This suggests that short-term price momentum is stronger. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) maintains its position above the 50 mark, reinforcing a bullish bias. The AUD/USD pair may explore the resistance region around the eight-week high of 0.6330, last reached on January 24. The AUD/USD pair could test primary support at the nine-day EMA of 0.6273 level, followed by the 14-day EMA of 0.6265. A decisive break below these levels could weaken the short-term price momentum, potentially pushing the pair toward the psychological level of 0.6200. AUD/USD: Daily ChartAustralian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.00% -0.06% 0.54% 0.00% -0.03% -0.11% -0.06% EUR 0.00% -0.05% 0.52% 0.00% -0.04% -0.10% -0.06% GBP 0.06% 0.05% 0.57% 0.06% 0.02% -0.05% -0.00% JPY -0.54% -0.52% -0.57% -0.53% -0.57% -0.65% -0.59% CAD -0.00% -0.00% -0.06% 0.53% -0.04% -0.11% -0.06% AUD 0.03% 0.04% -0.02% 0.57% 0.04% -0.07% -0.03% NZD 0.11% 0.10% 0.05% 0.65% 0.11% 0.07% 0.04% CHF 0.06% 0.06% 0.00% 0.59% 0.06% 0.03% -0.04% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

03:49 NZD/USD posts modest gains above 0.5650, US CPI data looms
The NZD/USD pair trades with mild gains around 0.5655 during the early Asian session on Wednesday.

03:15 Israel’s Netanyahu says intense fighting will resume if hostages are not returned
Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said late Tuesday that the ceasefire will be over and Israel will resume “intense fighting” in Gaza if Hamas doesn’t release “our hostages” by Saturday noon, per BBC.

03:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1710 vs. 7.1716 previous
On Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1710 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1716 and 7.2971 Reuters estimates.

02:40 White House official says 25% steel tariffs would stack on other levies on Canada
A White House official said late Tuesday that US President Donald Trump's planned 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports would be added onto other levies on Canadian goods, resulting in a total 50% tariff.

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A government source told Reuters that Canada had not been informed of the tariff stacking, but it "sounds plausible.”

Earlier this month, Trump imposed 25% tariffs on most Canadian goods. However, the tariffs were paused for 30 days last week. Market reaction At the time of writing, the USD/CAD pair is trading 0.03% higher on the day to trade at 1.4292. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

02:34 Australia Investment Lending for Homes dipped from previous -1% to -4.5% in 4Q
Australia Investment Lending for Homes dipped from previous -1% to -4.5% in 4Q

02:34 Australia Home Loans climbed from previous 0.1% to 2.2% in 4Q
Australia Home Loans climbed from previous 0.1% to 2.2% in 4Q

02:28 WTI edges higher to near $73.00 amid supply worries
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $72.95 during the early Asian session on Wednesday.

01:51 Japan Money Supply M2+CD (YoY) unchanged at 1.3% in January
Japan Money Supply M2+CD (YoY) unchanged at 1.3% in January

01:33 US President Trump trade adviser: Australia 'killing aluminium market' in blow to tariff exemption hopes
US President Donald's trade adviser Peter Navarro said late Tuesday that Australia was "killing the aluminium market", the day after Trump signed executive orders for import tariffs on some metals.

01:24 USD/CAD holds below 1.4300 ahead of US CPI release
The USD/CAD pair trades with mild negative bias around 1.4280 during the late American session on Tuesday.

01:16 EUR/USD gains ground as markets look higher
EUR/USD snapped a three-day losing streak, recovering ground and rebounding to just north of 1.0350 as broad-market flows reversed out of the safe haven Greenback and investor sentiment broadly rebounded.

00:50 GBP/USD recovers on general sentiment improvement
GBP/USD recovered ground on Tuesday, snapping a three-day losing streak and recovering back into touch range of the 1.2450 level, rising around two-thirds of one percent on the day.

00:43 AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Stages recovery after hitting five-month low
The AUD/JPY bounced off after hitting five-month lows of 94.30 on February 10, yet buyers stepped in and pushed the cross-pair above the 95.00 mark.

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Forex News Timeline

23:45 New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM) fell from previous 2% to -1.6% in January New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM) fell from previous 2% to -1.6% in January

23:45 New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales (YoY) rose from previous -1% to -0.5% in January New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales (YoY) rose from previous -1% to -0.5% in January

23:13 USD/JPY Price Forecast: Surges past 154.50 post hot CPI The USD/JPY rallied sharply on Wednesday after a hot US inflation report spurred a jump in the US 10-year Treasury yield, closely correlated with the major.

22:51 Gold price steadies as Powell stands firm on restrictive policy Gold price recovered some ground late during Wednesday’s North American session.

21:19 Canadian Dollar recovery grinds away, Loonie finds fresh eight-week high The Canadian Dollar (CAD) briefly tested a new eight-week peak on Wednesday, pushing USD/CAD to its lowest levels since mid-December.

21:04 Forex Today: Further US inflation gauges should rule the sentiment The US Dollar succumbed to the late selling pressure and faded the post-CPI move to weekly highs, while investors kept digesting Powell’s testimonies and sticky consumer prices in January.

21:00 United States Monthly Budget Statement came in at $-129B below forecasts ($-88.1B) in January United States Monthly Budget Statement came in at $-129B below forecasts ($-88.1B) in January

20:48 BoC Meeting Minutes show Canadian policymakers are awaiting signs of tariff inflation The Bank of Canada released its latest Meeting Minutes on Wednesday.

20:38 US Dollar turns down despite hot CPI The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of currencies, initially climbed after January’s hotter-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) data but then reversed course.

20:04 United States 10-Year Note Auction fell from previous 4.68% to 4.632% United States 10-Year Note Auction fell from previous 4.68% to 4.632%

19:55 Mexican Peso defies US inflation shock, extends gains The Mexican Peso (MXN) extended its gains against the US Dollar (USD) for the second consecutive day, unfazed by the jump in inflation in the United States (US), preventing the Federal Reserve (Fed) from easing policy.

19:48 EUR/USD reverses early declines, climbs back over 1.04 EUR/USD clawed back chart paper on Wednesday, rebounding from early losses to reclaim the 1.0400 handle as markets shake off a fresh batch of US inflation figures that broadly accelerated in January.

19:06 Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbles as US inflation kicks higher The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) tumbled on Wednesday,dropping over 400 points at its lowest and dipping into 44090.

18:21 BoE's Greene: hesitant to say a trade war is helpful for inflation Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Megan Greene noted on Wednesday that a cautious approach is probably the best approach when it comes to easing monetary policy.

17:56 EUR/USD Price Analysis: Bulls push higher but face key resistance The EUR/USD pair edged higher to 1.0375 on Wednesday, as buyers extended their recent recovery efforts.

17:30 United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change came in at 4.07M, above expectations (2.8M) in February 7 United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change came in at 4.07M, above expectations (2.8M) in February 7

16:57 GBP/USD drops below 1.2400 after US CPI data The Pound Sterling slipped during the North American session after the latest United States (US) inflation report showed that prices continued to rise, pushing back expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in the first half of 2025.

16:48 USD/CAD jumps as hot US CPI boosts Fed ‘higher for longer’ interest rates bets The USD/CAD pair climbs to near 1.4340 in North American trading hours on Wednesday.

16:07 AUD/USD flirts with weekly lows near 0.6230 post US CPI The US Dollar caught a fresh wave of buying on Wednesday, vaulting the US Dollar Index (DXY) to weekly highs above 108.00.

15:54 USD/JPY rises to fresh weekly high above 154.00 after US inflation data USD/JPY gathered bullish momentum in the early American session on Wednesday and reached a fresh weekly high near 154.50.

15:36 EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Surges to near 159.60 as Japanese Yen languishes across the board The EUR/JPY pair extends its winning spell for the third trading day on Wednesday.

15:32 United States Consumer Price Index Core s.a: 324.74 (January) vs 323.38 United States Consumer Price Index Core s.a: 324.74 (January) vs 323.38

15:30 Germany Current Account n.s.a. fell from previous €24.1B to €24B in December Germany Current Account n.s.a. fell from previous €24.1B to €24B in December

15:30 United States Consumer Price Index (YoY) above forecasts (2.9%) in January: Actual (3%) United States Consumer Price Index (YoY) above forecasts (2.9%) in January: Actual (3%)

15:30 United States Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) registered at 317.671 above expectations (317.46) in January United States Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) registered at 317.671 above expectations (317.46) in January

15:30 United States Consumer Price Index (MoM) registered at 0.5% above expectations (0.3%) in January United States Consumer Price Index (MoM) registered at 0.5% above expectations (0.3%) in January

15:30 United States Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) registered at 3.3% above expectations (3.1%) in January United States Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) registered at 3.3% above expectations (3.1%) in January

15:30 United States Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) came in at 0.4%, above expectations (0.3%) in January United States Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) came in at 0.4%, above expectations (0.3%) in January

15:30 United States Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) above expectations (317.46) in January: Actual (317.67) United States Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) above expectations (317.46) in January: Actual (317.67)

15:09 US Pres. Trump: Interest rates should be lowered US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that interest rates should be lowered, adding that they would "go hand in hand" with upcoming tariffs.

14:34 USD/CAD is trading at the lower end of the 1.4260-1.4800 range – BBH USD/CAD is trading at the lower end of its year-to-date 1.4260-1.4800 range, BBH FX analysts report.

14:00 United States MBA Mortgage Applications up to 2.3% in February 7 from previous 2.2% United States MBA Mortgage Applications up to 2.3% in February 7 from previous 2.2%

13:25 USD/JPY extends winning streak for third day, US CPI is on horizon The USD/JPY pair jumps to near 154.00 in Wednesday’s European session on extending its winning streak for the third trading day.

12:58 Gold rally stalls after Fed’s Powell testimony Gold’s price (XAU/USD) edges lower and trades below $2,900 at the time of writing on Wednesday after Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell went to Capitol Hill for his semi-annual testimony before lawmakers the previous day.

12:39 Germany 30-y Bond Auction down to 2.65% from previous 2.84% Germany 30-y Bond Auction down to 2.65% from previous 2.84%

12:32 India Industrial Output below expectations (3.9%) in December: Actual (3.2%) India Industrial Output below expectations (3.9%) in December: Actual (3.2%)

12:32 India Cumulative Industrial Output declined to 4% in December from previous 4.1% India Cumulative Industrial Output declined to 4% in December from previous 4.1%

12:31 India Manufacturing Output fell from previous 5.8% to 3% in December India Manufacturing Output fell from previous 5.8% to 3% in December

12:22 AUD/USD declines from two-week high around 0.6300, US CPI in focus The AUD/USD pair faces sharp selling pressure after failing to break above the key resistance level of 0.6300 in Wednesday’s European session.

11:44 EUR/USD stays firm ahead of US CPI EUR/USD moves higher to near 1.0380 in Wednesday’s European session ahead of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for January, which will be published at 13:30 GMT.

11:36 Brent price can break above $79.40 – Société Générale Brent decline stalled near $74 last week and it has staged an initial bounce after this test, Société Générale's FX analysts note.

11:30 Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data.

11:30 Gold: To grow ongoing global trade uncertainty – OCBC Recent breakout in Gold prices towards 2942 intra-day high was due to recent play-up on trade friction and central banks keeping up with their Gold purchases (China for 3 rd consecutive month).

11:26 USD/JPY: Still watching out for reciprocal tariffs – OCBC USD/JPY continued to trade higher, in line with our near-term caution about the reciprocal tariff uncertainty.

11:22 USD/CNH: Outlook remains mixed – UOB Group US Dollar (USD) is expected to trade in a range between 7.3000 and 7.3200.

11:19 DXY: CPI in focus – OCBC US Dollar (USD) traded subdued overnight in absence of fresh catalyst.

11:12 WTI falls below $72.50 following a sharp rise in US crude inventories West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price snaps a three-day winning streak, trading around $72.40 per barrel during European hours on Wednesday.

11:10 USD/JPY: Has a chance to rise further to 153.65 – UOB Group US Dollar (USD) could rise further to 153.65; the major resistance at 154.30 is unlikely to come under threat.

11:04 Iron ore gains on supply woes – ING Iron ore has jumped to the highest level since October 2024 with prices approaching $108/t this morning as a tropical cyclone in Australia raised concerns about supply disruptions.

11:00 NZD/USD: Likely to trade in a 0.5640/0.5675 range – UOB Group New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is likely to trade in a 0.5640/0.5675 range.

11:00 Italy Industrial Output s.a. (MoM) below forecasts (-0.2%) in December: Actual (-3.1%) Italy Industrial Output s.a. (MoM) below forecasts (-0.2%) in December: Actual (-3.1%)

11:00 Italy Industrial Output w.d.a (YoY) down to -7.1% in December from previous -1.5% Italy Industrial Output w.d.a (YoY) down to -7.1% in December from previous -1.5%

10:46 Energy: API reports a large build of oil inventory – ING The oil market is trading with marginal declines this morning as the API numbers released overnight were largely bearish for the oil market.

10:42 AUD/USD: To rise above 0.6310 – UOB Group Chance for Australian Dollar (AUD) to rise above 0.6310; it remains to be seen if it can maintain a foothold above this level.

10:39 AUD/JPY climbs to near 96.50 as Ueda avoids offering clear guidance on the policy outlook AUD/JPY extends its winning streak for a third consecutive session, trading around 96.50 during European hours on Wednesday.

10:34 USD: The surprise would be a 0.2% MoM CPI today – ING The Dollar Index (DXY) was a little softer yesterday – largely on the back of some strength in the euro.

10:29 GBP/USD: Likely to continue to rise – UOB Group Pound Sterling (GBP) is likely to continue to rise; 1.2500 is expected to provide strong resistance.

10:23 EUR/CHF can move towards 0.9500/9520 this week – ING EUR/CHF seems to be recovering, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

10:19 EUR/USD: Likely to trade with an upward bias – UOB Group Euro (EUR) is likely to trade with an upward bias; a clear break above 1.0405 appears unlikely.

10:17 EUR: Exploring the upside – ING We're having a lot of internal discussions about the outperformance of eurozone equities this year.

10:12 NZD/USD Price Forecast: Remains above 0.5650, resistance appears at nine-day EMA The NZD/USD pair edges lower after registering losses in the previous session, trading around 0.5650 during the European hours on Wednesday.

10:01 Crude oil price today: WTI price bearish, according to FXStreet data West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data.

09:57 Pound Sterling holds onto gains against US Dollar ahead of US CPI The Pound Sterling (GBP) clings to gains near 1.2450 against the US Dollar (USD) in Wednesday’s European session.

09:42 EUR/GBP hovers near 1.0850 as reciprocal tariff threats from US weigh on market sentiment EUR/GBP remains steady after losses in the previous session, hovering around 0.8330 during early European trading hours on Wednesday.

09:15 Forex Today: US inflation data, Trump tariff talks to drive market action Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, February 12: Major currency pairs continue to fluctuate in relatively tight weekly ranges as investors gear up for the next key macroeconomic events.

08:55 USD/CAD gathers strength near 1.4300, traders await US CPI release The USD/CAD pair gathers strength to around 1.4295 on Wednesday during the early European session, bolstered by a firmer US Dollar (USD).

08:12 USD/CHF holds steady above 0.9100, US CPI data in focus The USD/CHF pair trades on a flat note around 0.9130 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday.

07:59 FX option expiries for Feb 12 NY cut FX option expiries for Feb 12 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

07:57 US Dollar Index Price Forecast: Treads water above nine-day EMA support near 108.00 The US Dollar Index (DXY) recovers its losses from the previous two sessions, trading around 108.10 during Asian hours on Wednesday.

07:12 GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Next upside barrier emerges near 193.50 The GBP/JPY cross trades in positive territory near 191.20 during the early European session on Wednesday.

07:00 CPI Data set to show steady US inflation in January, still above Fed’s target The United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics will release January’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Wednesday at 13:30 GMT.

06:51 EUR/USD remains above 1.0350, downside seems possible due to reciprocal tariff threats EUR/USD remains steady around 1.0360 during Asian trading hours on Wednesday after gaining in the previous session.

06:36 India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data Gold prices fell in India on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

06:12 Gold price remains depressed below $2,900; downside potential seems limited Gold price (XAU/USD) trades with a mild negative bias for the second straight day, though it lacks follow-through selling and holds steady just below the $2,900 mark during the Asian session on Wednesday.

06:06 GBP/USD holds gains near 1.2450, downside risks appear due to hawkish Fed GBP/USD remains steady after registering gains in the previous session, trading around 1.2450 during the Asian hours on Wednesday.

05:53 US President Trump on likely reciprocal tariffs: We'll see When asked if reciprocal tariffs are still coming on Wednesday, US President Donald Trump said 'we'll see'.

05:30 CPI Data set to show steady US inflation in January, still above Fed’s target The United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics will release January’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Wednesday at 13:30 GMT.

05:12 USD/INR weakens on RBI intervention, investors brace for US CPI release The Indian Rupee (INR) extends its upside on Wednesday, bolstered by the strong intervention from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).

04:49 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rises to near $32.00 amid rising Middle-East tensions Silver price (XAG/USD) retraces its recent losses, hovering around $31.90 per troy ounce during Wednesday's Asian session.